Szvetlana Acs's research while affiliated with University of Stirling and other places

Recent decades have witnessed substantial losses in biodiversity in Europe, principally driven by the ecological changes associated with intensification of agricultural production. These changes especially affected the biodiversity in the marginal areas, such as the uplands in UK, since the habitat change was greater than in lowland zones. Livestock farming is the main land use in these areas, and economic viability of these farmers substantially relies on income coming from agricultural subsidies and different agri-environmental payments. The production decisions are influenced by these incentives and those have a subsequent effect on biodiversity. In order to address the problem of economic viability of farmers together with its impact on biodiversity conservation, we developed ecological-economic models for four typical farm types in the Peak District National Park in UK. We analyse the effect of policies on upland avian densities, focusing on decoupling and agri-environment schemes. The results show that the impact of these policies individually, which sometimes opposite, differs from their aggregated effect. It also shows that the effect differs across farm types. This means that from a biodiversity point of view whatever future policy options are chosen will result in winners and losers.

Recent decades have witnessed substantial losses in biodiversity in Europe, partly driven by the ecological changes associated with intensification of agricultural production. These changes have particularly affected biodiversity in marginal areas, such as the uplands in UK, since habitat change has been greater than in lowland zones. Livestock farming is the main land use in these areas, and economic viability of farmers substantially relies on income coming from agricultural subsidies and agrienvironmental payments. The production decisions have an effect on biodiversity, although the precise links are subject of much debate. To assess the effects of policy changes on farm incomes and biodiversity, we developed ecological-economic models for three typical farm types in the Peak District National Park in UK. We analyse the effect of decoupling and agri-environment schemes on birds. The results show that the impact of these policies varies across farm types and across biodiversity indicator. This means that from a biodiversity point of view whatever future policy options are chosen will result in winners and losers.

Hill farming in UK is experiencing very difficult economic circumstances and many farmers rely on subsidies provided by the government for a large fraction of their income. The Peak District National Park is used as a case study to examine how farmers might respond to current policy changes – in particular, the move from area- and headage-based payments to the Single Farm Payment. The objective of this paper is thus to develop production models that predict how farmers will respond to changing policy framework conditions. For this purpose socio-economic surveys were carried out on 44 sample farms. Based on these surveys six representative farm linear programming models was developed, which represent typical farm types in the uplands in the Peak District. These models are used to calculate the effect of different policies, carried out under CAP reform, on incomes, land use and the intensity of production. In this study the focus is on typical sheep and beef farm type, the most common in this region.

Hill farming in UK is experiencing very difficult economic circumstances and many farmers rely on subsidies provided by the government for a large fraction of their income. The Peak District National Park is used as a case study to examine how farmers might respond to current policy changes � in particular, the move from area- and headage-based payments to the Single Farm Payment, and how optimal business plans should respond to these changes. The objective of this paper is thus to develop production models that predict how farmers will respond to changing policy framework conditions. For this purpose socio-economic surveys were carried out on 44 sample farms, in order to investigate how the land is managed on hill farms including ongoing policies and future farm management planning. Based on these surveys a series of representative farm linear programming models was developed, which represent typical farm types in the uplands in the Peak District. In this study the focus is on typical sheep and beef farm type, the most common in this region. This model is used to calculate the effect of different policies, carried out under CAP reform, on incomes, land use and the intensity of production. We also consider the impacts of a complete removal of subsidy.

In many parts of Europe, decades of production subsidies led to the steady intensification of agriculture in marginal areas. The recent decoupling of subsidies from production decisions means that the future of farming in these areas is uncertain. For example, in the uplands of the United Kingdom, an area important both for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision, hill farmers steadily increased stocking densities in response to headage payments but must now reconfigure farm businesses to account for the shift to the Single Farm Payment scheme. We examined hill farming in the Peak District National Park as a case study into the future of marginal agriculture after decoupling. We surveyed 44 farm businesses and from this identified six representative farm types based on enterprise mix and land holdings. We developed linear programming models of production decisions for each farm type to examine the impacts of policy changes, comparing the effects of decoupling with and without agri-environment and hill farm support, and evaluating the effects of removal of the Single Farm Payment. The main effects of decoupling are to reduce stocking rates, and to change the mix of livestock activities. Agri-environmental schemes mediate the income losses from decoupling, and farmers are predicted to maximise take up of new Environmental Stewardship programmes, which have both positive and negative feedback effects on livestock numbers. Finally, removal of the Single Farm Payment leads to negative net farm incomes, and some land abandonment. These changes have important implications for ongoing debates about how ecological service flows can be maintained from upland areas, and how marginal upland farming communities can be sustained.

Several studies show that organic farming is more profitable than conventional farming. However, in reality not many farmers convert to organic farming. Policy makers and farmers do not have clear insight into factors which hamper or stimulate the conversion to organic farming. The objective of this paper is to develop a dynamic linear programming model to analyse the effects of different limiting factors on the conversion process of farms over time. The model is developed for a typical arable farm in The Netherlands central clay region, and is based on two static liner programming models (conventional and organic). The objective of the model is to maximise the net present value over a 10-year planning horizon. The results of the analysis of a basic scenario show that conversion to organic farming is more profitable than staying conventional. In order to arrive at the actual profitable phase of organic farming, the farmer has to pass through the economically difficult 2-year conversion period. Sensitivity analysis shows that if depreciation is 25% higher than conventional fixed costs due to machinery made superfluous by conversion, conversion is less profitable than staying conventional. Also the availability of hired labour, which can be constrained in peak periods, has a strong effect on the cropping plan and the amount of area converted. Further analysis shows that a slight drop (2%) in organic prices lowers the labour income of the farmer and makes conversion less profitable than conventional farming. For farmers, a minimum labour income can be required to ‘survive’. The analysis shows that constraint on minimum labour income makes stepwise conversion the best way for farmers to overcome economic difficulties during conversion.

Growing environmental concern in society combined with policy stimuli has encouraged farmers to switch from conventional to organic production technologies. However, so far not many have made this switch. This raises the question, what could lie behind the decisions of farmers concerning conversion. A first step in studying this decision is to compare farming results in an organic situation with conventional farm results from technical, economic and environmental points of view. In this paper a linear programming model of a conventional arable farm and an organic arable farm are presented. The models include environmental externalities such as losses of nutrients and pesticide use, the levels of which can be influenced by using different production structures (cropping plans). With the conventional model two different crop rotations (3-year and 4-year), and with the organic model one rotation (6-year) are analysed and the results of these three situations are compared. The example farm modelled is typical for the central clay region in The Netherlands. The results show that organic farming leads to less intensive land use, better environmental results and better economic results. Expenditure on hired labour is much higher in organic farming which also leads to higher variable costs. Prices for organic products are higher than for similar conventional products, but lower yields and the less intensive cropping plan mitigates the effects on total revenues.

Literature shows a significant development of organic farming in Europe but with considerable differences between countries. These depend on general agricultural policy (the set of regulations and laws), specific policy incentives, and also on differences in consumer behaviour. This paper reviews scientific literature on the evaluation of the technical, economic and environmental aspects of conversion from conventional towards organic production. The methods and results of empirical and normative modelling studies at the farm level, with special regard to farm management and policy, are analysed. Empirical modelling studies show the importance of incentives and agricultural policy, and the usefulness of integrated modelling for determining the effects of different policies on farm management. Normative modelling shows the effects of new policy instruments and technology, and allows the high level of detail needed for what-if analysis. Normative models of conversion to organic farming confirm the importance of incentives and the agricultural policy context.

Met behulp van twee statische lineaire programmeringsmodellen zijn de technische, economische en milieu resultaten van een gespecialiseerd gangbaar en een gespecialiseerd biologisch landbouwbedrijf vergeleken. Deze modellen zullen als basis dienen voor een dynamisch model waarbij de bottlenecks tijdens de overgang van gangbare naar biologische landbouw kan worden bestudeerd