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Comparison between the 2020 Coronavirus-19 and the 1665 Great Plague of London
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Rationale
Maintaining social distance during the COVID-19 pandemic can save lives. We therefore set out to test communication strategies to promote social distancing.
Objective
We aimed to test two novel public health messages against a control message. The first was designed to exploit the “identifiable victim” effect by highlighting the risk of transmission to identifiable vulnerable persons. The second sought to counteract intuitive underestimation of exponential transmission.
Method
In total, 500 Irish adults undertook a pre-registered, online experiment. They were randomly assigned to a control group or one of two treatment groups. The control group viewed a current poster that encouraged a 2-m separation between people. The two treatment groups saw posters of similar design, but with narrative messages describing how an individual had infected a specific vulnerable person or multiple other people. Later questions measured intentions to undertake three specific types of social interaction over the coming days and the stated acceptability of three other types of social interaction. Pilot work had identified these six behaviors as “marginal” – people were unsure whether they were advisable.
Results
Participants in the treatment conditions were more cautious about undertaking the behaviors and less accepting of them. This positive effect occurred despite participants rating the treatment posters as likely to be less effective and memorable than the control poster.
Conclusions
Messages that invoke thoughts of infecting vulnerable people or large numbers of people can motivate social distancing and, hence, help to limit the spread of COVID-19. Stated public evaluations (obtained via focus groups or surveys) may underestimate the actual effectiveness of such emotional messages.
A severe upper respiratory tract syndrome caused by the new coronavirus has now spread to the entire world as a highly contagious pandemic. The large scale explosion of the disease is conventionally traced back to January of this year in the Chinese province of Hubei, the wet markets of the principal city of Wuhan being assumed to have been the specific causative locus of the sudden explosion of the infection. A number of findings that are now coming to light show that this interpretation of the origin and history of the pandemic is overly simplified. A number of variants of the coronavirus would in principle have had the ability to initiate the pandemic well before January of this year. However, even if the COVID-19 had become, so to say, ready, conditions in the local environment would have had to prevail to induce the loss of the biodiversity's "dilution effect" that kept the virus under control, favoring its spillover from its bat reservoir to the human target. In the absence of these appropriate conditions only abortive attempts to initiate the pandemic could possibly occur: a number of them did indeed occur in China, and probably elsewhere as well. These conditions were unfortunately present at the wet marked in Wuhan at the end of last year.
Importance:
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the policies to contain it have been a near ubiquitous exposure in the US with unknown effects on depression symptoms.
Objective:
To estimate the prevalence of and risk factors associated with depression symptoms among US adults during vs before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Design, setting, and participants:
This nationally representative survey study used 2 population-based surveys of US adults aged 18 or older. During COVID-19, estimates were derived from the COVID-19 and Life Stressors Impact on Mental Health and Well-being study, conducted from March 31, 2020, to April 13, 2020. Before COVID-19 estimates were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, conducted from 2017 to 2018. Data were analyzed from April 15 to 20, 2020.
Exposures:
The COVID-19 pandemic and outcomes associated with the measures to mitigate it.
Main outcomes and measures:
Depression symptoms, defined using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 cutoff of 10 or higher. Categories of depression symptoms were defined as none (score, 0-4), mild (score, 5-9), moderate (score, 10-14), moderately severe (score, 15-19), and severe (score, ≥20).
Results:
A total of 1470 participants completed the COVID-19 and Life Stressors Impact on Mental Health and Well-being survey (completion rate, 64.3%), and after removing those with missing data, the final during-COVID-19 sample included 1441 participants (619 participants [43.0%] aged 18-39 years; 723 [50.2%] men; 933 [64.7%] non-Hispanic White). The pre-COVID-19 sample included 5065 participants (1704 participants [37.8%] aged 18-39 years; 2588 [51.4%] women; 1790 [62.9%] non-Hispanic White). Depression symptom prevalence was higher in every category during COVID-19 compared with before (mild: 24.6% [95% CI, 21.8%-27.7%] vs 16.2% [95% CI, 15.1%-17.4%]; moderate: 14.8% [95% CI, 12.6%-17.4%] vs 5.7% [95% CI, 4.8%-6.9%]; moderately severe: 7.9% [95% CI, 6.3%-9.8%] vs 2.1% [95% CI, 1.6%-2.8%]; severe: 5.1% [95% CI, 3.8%-6.9%] vs 0.7% [95% CI, 0.5%-0.9%]). Higher risk of depression symptoms during COVID-19 was associated with having lower income (odds ratio, 2.37 [95% CI, 1.26-4.43]), having less than $5000 in savings (odds ratio, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.02-2.26]), and exposure to more stressors (odds ratio, 3.05 [95% CI, 1.95-4.77]).
Conclusions and relevance:
These findings suggest that prevalence of depression symptoms in the US was more than 3-fold higher during COVID-19 compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic. Individuals with lower social resources, lower economic resources, and greater exposure to stressors (eg, job loss) reported a greater burden of depression symptoms. Post-COVID-19 plans should account for the probable increase in mental illness to come, particularly among at-risk populations.
The aim of this study is to reveal the opinions of teachers and students about the distance education applications carried out in the COVID-19 pandemic, which was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and has spread around the globe in no time. The population of the research consists of 16 teachers and 20 students. The data were analyzed by content analysis technique and divided into themes, sub-themes and codes. It was concluded that students and teachers have positive and negative opinions about distance education activities. The fact that education can be carried out in a planned and scheduled manner even under extraordinary conditions is frequently expressed in positive opinions. Issues such as restricted interaction, infrastructure problems and lack of equipment are among the remarkable negative opinions regarding distance education activities. In addition, opinions have been put forward that distance education will be used more effectively in the future along with necessary improvement and in-service training.
COVID-19 has not affected all scientists equally. A survey of principal investigators indicates that female scientists, those in the ‘bench sciences’ and, especially, scientists with young children experienced a substantial decline in time devoted to research. This could have important short- and longer-term effects on their careers, which institution leaders and funders need to address carefully.
The World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020, has declared the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak a global pandemic (1). At a news briefing , WHO Director-General, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, noted that over the past 2 weeks, the number of cases outside China increased 13-fold and the number of countries with cases increased threefold. Further increases are expected. He said that the WHO is "deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity and by the alarming levels of inaction," and he called on countries to take action now to contain the virus. "We should double down," he said. "We should be more aggressive." [...].
Background:
In December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan and rapidly spread throughout China.
Methods:
Demographic and clinical data of all confirmed cases with COVID-19 on admission at Tongji Hospital from January 10 to February 12, 2020, were collected and analyzed. The data of laboratory examinations, including peripheral lymphocyte subsets, were analyzed and compared between severe and non-severe patients.
Results:
Of the 452 patients with COVID-19 recruited, 286 were diagnosed as severe infection. The median age was 58 years and 235 were male. The most common symptoms were fever, shortness of breath, expectoration, fatigue, dry cough and myalgia. Severe cases tend to have lower lymphocytes counts, higher leukocytes counts and neutrophil-lymphocyte-ratio (NLR), as well as lower percentages of monocytes, eosinophils, and basophils. Most of severe cases demonstrated elevated levels of infection-related biomarkers and inflammatory cytokines. The number of T cells significantly decreased, and more hampered in severe cases. Both helper T cells and suppressor T cells in patients with COVID-19 were below normal levels, and lower level of helper T cells in severe group. The percentage of naïve helper T cells increased and memory helper T cells decreased in severe cases. Patients with COVID-19 also have lower level of regulatory T cells, and more obviously damaged in severe cases.
Conclusions:
The novel coronavirus might mainly act on lymphocytes, especially T lymphocytes. Surveillance of NLR and lymphocyte subsets is helpful in the early screening of critical illness, diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19.
Significance
Empirical evidence suggests significant gender differences in the total productivity and impact of academic careers across science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. Paradoxically, the increase in the number of women academics over the past 60 years has increased these gender differences. Yet, we find that men and women publish a comparable number of papers per year and have equivalent career-wise impact for the same total number of publications. This suggests the productivity and impact of gender differences are explained by different publishing career lengths and dropout rates. This comprehensive picture of gender inequality in academic publishing can help rephrase the conversation around the sustainability of women’s careers in academia, with important consequences for institutions and policy makers.
In preparing for influenza pandemics, public health agencies stockpile critical medical resources. Determining appropriate quantities and locations for such resources can be challenging, given the considerable uncertainty in the timing and severity of future pandemics. We introduce a method for optimizing stockpiles of mechanical ventilators, which are critical for treating hospitalized influenza patients in respiratory failure. As a case study, we consider the US state of Texas during mild, moderate, and severe pandemics. Optimal allocations prioritize local over central storage, even though the latter can be deployed adaptively, on the basis of real-time needs. This prioritization stems from high geographic correlations and the slightly lower treatment success assumed for centrally stockpiled ventilators. We developed our model and analysis in collaboration with academic researchers and a state public health agency and incorporated it into a Web-based decision-support tool for pandemic preparedness and response.
For more than a century, scientists have investigated the natural history of plague, a highly fatal disease caused by infection with the gram-negative bacterium Yersinia pestis. Among their most important discoveries were the zoonotic nature of the disease and that plague exists in natural cycles involving transmission between rodent hosts and flea vectors. Other significant findings include those on the evolution of Y. pestis; geographic variation among plague strains; the dynamics and maintenance of transmission cycles; mechanisms by which fleas transmit Y. pestis; resistance and susceptibility among plague hosts; the structure and typology of natural foci; and how landscape features influence the focality, maintenance, and spread of the disease. The knowledge gained from these studies is essential for the development of effective prevention and control strategies.
Background:
Several U.S. hospitals had surges in COVID-19 caseload, but their effect on COVID-19 survival rates remains unclear, especially independent of temporal changes in survival.
Objective:
To determine the association between hospitals' severity-weighted COVID-19 caseload and COVID-19 mortality risk and identify effect modifiers of this relationship.
Design:
Retrospective cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04688372).
Setting:
558 U.S. hospitals in the Premier Healthcare Database.
Participants:
Adult COVID-19-coded inpatients admitted from March to August 2020 with discharge dispositions by October 2020.
Measurements:
Each hospital-month was stratified by percentile rank on a surge index (a severity-weighted measure of COVID-19 caseload relative to pre-COVID-19 bed capacity). The effect of surge index on risk-adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of in-hospital mortality or discharge to hospice was calculated using hierarchical modeling; interaction by surge attributes was assessed.
Results:
Of 144 116 inpatients with COVID-19 at 558 U.S. hospitals, 78 144 (54.2%) were admitted to hospitals in the top surge index decile. Overall, 25 344 (17.6%) died; crude COVID-19 mortality decreased over time across all surge index strata. However, compared with nonsurging (<50th surge index percentile) hospital-months, aORs in the 50th to 75th, 75th to 90th, 90th to 95th, 95th to 99th, and greater than 99th percentiles were 1.11 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.23), 1.24 (CI, 1.12 to 1.38), 1.42 (CI, 1.27 to 1.60), 1.59 (CI, 1.41 to 1.80), and 2.00 (CI, 1.69 to 2.38), respectively. The surge index was associated with mortality across ward, intensive care unit, and intubated patients. The surge-mortality relationship was stronger in June to August than in March to May (slope difference, 0.10 [CI, 0.033 to 0.16]) despite greater corticosteroid use and more judicious intubation during later and higher-surging months. Nearly 1 in 4 COVID-19 deaths (5868 [CI, 3584 to 8171]; 23.2%) was potentially attributable to hospitals strained by surging caseload.
Limitation:
Residual confounding.
Conclusion:
Despite improvements in COVID-19 survival between March and August 2020, surges in hospital COVID-19 caseload remained detrimental to survival and potentially eroded benefits gained from emerging treatments. Bolstering preventive measures and supporting surging hospitals will save many lives.
Primary funding source:
Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and the National Cancer Institute.
The COVID-19 pandemic has looming negative impacts on mental health of undergraduate and graduate students at research universities, according to the Student Experience in the Research University (SERU) Consortium survey of 30,725 undergraduate students and 15,346 graduate and professional students conducted in May-July 2020 at nine public research universities. Based on PHQ-2 and GAD-2 screening tools, 35% of undergraduates and 32% of graduate and professional students screened positive for major depressive disorder, while 39% of undergraduate and graduate and professional students screened positive for generalized anxiety disorder. Major depressive disorder and generalized anxiety disorder rates are more pronounced among low-income students; students of color; women and non-binary students; transgender students; gay or lesbian, bisexual, queer, questioning, asexual, and pansexual students; and, students who are caregivers. The prevalence of major depressive disorder and generalized anxiety disorder is higher among the undergraduate and graduate students who did not adapt well to remote instruction.Furthermore, the pandemic has led to increases in students’ mental health disorders compared to previous years. In fact, the prevalence of major depressive disorder among graduate and professional students is two times higher in 2020 compared to 2019 and the prevalence of generalized anxiety disorder is 1.5 times higher than in 2019.
This coronavirus is here for the long haul — here’s what scientists predict for the next months and years. This coronavirus is here for the long haul — here’s what scientists predict for the next months and years.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) is a respiratory disorder caused by the highly contagious SARS‐CoV‐2. The immunopathological characteristics of COVID‐19 patients, either systemic or local, have not been thoroughly studied. In the present study, we analyzed both the changes in the number of various immune cell types as well as cytokines important for immune reactions and inflammation. Our data indicate that patients with severe COVID‐19 exhibited an overall decline of lymphocytes including CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, B cells, and NK cells. The number of immunosuppressive regulatory T cells was moderately increased in patients with mild COVID‐19. IL‐6, IL‐10, and C‐reactive protein were remarkably up‐regulated in patients with severe COVID‐19. In conclusion, our study shows that the comprehensive decrease of lymphocytes, the elevation of IL‐6, IL‐10, and C‐reactive protein are reliable indicators of severe COVID‐19.
Severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is characterized by pneumonia, lymphopenia, exhausted lymphocytes and a cytokine storm. Significant antibody production is observed; however, whether this is protective or pathogenic remains to be determined. Defining the immunopathological changes in patients with COVID-19 provides potential targets for drug discovery and is important for clinical management. In the short time since SARS-CoV2 emerged, much has been learned about the immunopathology of the infection. Here, Xuetao Cao discusses what these early insights imply for drug discovery and clinical management.
Purpose
Lianhuaqingwen (LH) as traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) formula has been used to treat influenza and exerted broad-spectrum antiviral effects on a series of influenza viruses and immune regulatory effects [1]. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the antiviral activity of LH against the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus and its potential effect in regulating host immune response.
Methods
The antiviral activity of LH against SARS-CoV-2 was assessed in Vero E6 cells using CPE and plaque reduction assay. The effect of LH on virion morphology was visualized under transmission electron microscope. Pro-inflammatory cytokine expression levels upon SARS-CoV-2 infection in Huh-7 cells were measured by real-time quantitative PCR assays.
Results
LH significantly inhibited SARS-CoV-2 replication in Vero E6 cells and markedly reduced pro-inflammatory cytokines (TNF-α, IL-6, CCL-2/MCP-1 and CXCL-10/IP-10) production at the mRNA levels. Furthermore, LH treatment resulted in abnormal particle morphology of virion in cells.
Conclusions
LH significantly inhibits the SARS-COV-2 replication, affects virus morphology and exerts anti-inflammatory activity in vitro. These findings indicate that LH protects against the virus attack, making its use a novel strategy for controlling the COVID-19 disease.
The aim of this study was to investigate changes in and relationships between selected serum pro-inflammatory cytokine levels (IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8 and TNFα) and outcome of postburn ARDS patients. A descriptive study was conducted on 18 burn patients complicated with ARDS, treated at the intensive care unit, National Institute of Burns. Relationships between ARDS severity, mortality rate and serum cytokine levels were analyzed and compared over time. Results showed that on admission, all selected plasma cytokine concentrations were extremely high. On day 1 of ARDS, IL-6 level increased from 485.7pg/ml to 714.3pg/ml, while other cytokine levels decreased slightly (p > .05). On day 3 of ARDS, all serum cytokine levels had marginally reduced, apart from IL-1β, which continued to rise from 568.7 ± 173.6pg/ml to 606 ± 198pg/ml (p > .05). No significant relationship was seen between pro-inflammatory cytokine levels and ARDS severity, or mortality rate. Further studies need to be conducted to determine the prognostic role of plasma cytokines among postburn ARDS patients. © 2018, Mediterranean Club for Burns and Fire Disasters. All rights reserved.
The calculus has served for three centuries as the principal quantitative language of Western science. In the course of its genesis and evolution some of the most fundamental problems of mathematics were first con fronted and, through the persistent labors of successive generations, finally resolved. Therefore, the historical development of the calculus holds a special interest for anyone who appreciates the value of a historical perspective in teaching, learning, and enjoying mathematics and its ap plications. My goal in writing this book was to present an account of this development that is accessible, not solely to students of the history of mathematics, but to the wider mathematical community for which my exposition is more specifically intended, including those who study, teach, and use calculus. The scope of this account can be delineated partly by comparison with previous works in the same general area. M. E. Baron's The Origins of the Infinitesimal Calculus (1969) provides an informative and reliable treat ment of the precalculus period up to, but not including (in any detail), the time of Newton and Leibniz, just when the interest and pace of the story begin to quicken and intensify. C. B. Boyer's well-known book (1949, 1959 reprint) met well the goals its author set for it, but it was more ap propriately titled in its original edition-The Concepts of the Calculus than in its reprinting.
In an earlier issue of Notes and Records , A. A. Mills and P.J. Turvey published a general account of the reflecting telescopes associated with Isaac Newton. There is another document concerning the reflecting telescope that has not until now been incorporated into the Newtonian literature: a schematic drawing of a reflecting telescope, accompanied by a description of the instrument written out by Newton in his own hand (see figure 1). The drawing was certainly made by Newton himself. At the bottom of the page, there is a note in another hand, of which the first part reads, ‘Ex dono celeberr. Dn. Newgtoni Profess. Math. Cantabrig.’ (the gift of the famous Mr Newton, Professor of Mathematics at Cambridge), and the remainder, in English, reads ‘of Cajus Colledg.’ This is, of course, an error, since Newton’s college was Trinity and not Caius; Newton’s name is also misspelled.
The outbreak of bubonic plague that struck London and Westminster in 1636 provoked the usual frenzied response to epidemics, including popular flight and government-mandated quarantine. The government asserted that plague control measures were acts of public health for the benefit of all. However, contrary to this government narrative of disease prevention there was a popular account that portrayed quarantine and isolation as personal punishment rather than prudent policy. In examining the 1636 outbreak on the parish as well as the individual level, reasons for this inconsistency between official and unofficial perspectives emerge. Quarantine and its effects were not classless, and its implementation was not always strictly in the name of public health. Government application of quarantine was remarkably effective, but it could never be uncontroversial both because of circumstances and because of misuse. The flight of the wealthiest from London and Westminster left only the more socially vulnerable to be quarantined. Though plague policy was financially sensitive to the poorest, it was costly to the middling sort. Another cause of controversy was the government's use of quarantine as a punishment to control individuals found breaking other laws. Though not widely publicized, popular narratives continually included grievances about the cruelty and inequity of quarantine and the militaristic nature of its implementation. Despite these objections, quarantine remained a staple of the government response to plague outbreaks throughout the seventeenth century.
In addition to the SARS coronavirus (treated separately elsewhere in this volume), the complete genome sequences of six species in the coronavirus genus of the coronavirus family [avian infectious bronchitis virus-Beaudette strain (IBV-Beaudette), bovine coronavirus-ENT strain (BCoV-ENT), human coronavirus-229E strain (HCoV-229E), murine hepatitis virus-A59 strain (MHV-A59), porcine transmissible gastroenteritis-Purdue 115 strain (TGEV-Purdue 115), and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus-CV777 strain (PEDV-CV777)] have now been reported. Their lengths range from 27,317 nt for HCoV-229E to 31,357 nt for the murine hepatitis virus-A59, establishing the coronavirus genome as the largest known among RNA viruses. The basic organization of the coronavirus genome is shared with other members of the Nidovirus order (the torovirus genus, also in the family Coronaviridae, and members of the family Arteriviridae) in that the nonstructural proteins involved in proteolytic processing, genome replication, and subgenomic mRNA synthesis (transcription) (an estimated 14-16 end products for coronaviruses) are encoded within the 5'-proximal two-thirds of the genome on gene 1 and the (mostly) structural proteins are encoded within the 3'-proximal one-third of the genome (8-9 genes for coronaviruses). Genes for the major structural proteins in all coronaviruses occur in the 5' to 3' order as S, E, M, and N. The precise strategy used by coronaviruses for genome replication is not yet known, but many features have been established. This chapter focuses on some of the known features and presents some current questions regarding genome replication strategy, the cis-acting elements necessary for genome replication [as inferred from defective interfering (DI) RNA molecules], the minimum sequence requirements for autonomous replication of an RNA replicon, and the importance of gene order in genome replication.
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