Pete Lunn

Economic and Social Research Institute | ESRI

Our everyday decisions around food, transportation, or energy use create carbon emissions that impact the climate and therefore other people’s lives. Likewise, other people's choices and emissions impact our ability to enjoy a liveable climate. The best collective outcome is achieved if we all reduce our emissions. However, in many climate contexts...

A basic function of government is to manage environmental risks. This requires measurement of how the public perceive different risks, but it is hard to measure risk perceptions in a neutral, unbiased way. In a pre-registered experiment with a nationally representative sample (N = 800), we tested the effects of survey instructions on perceived risk...

Excess clothing consumption severely harms the environment, through greenhouse gas emissions, resource degradation and water pollution. For consumers, however, the trade-off between this environmental impact and the convenience of "fast fashion" is hidden at the point of purchase. We present a pre-registered, experimental test of two clothing eco-l...

Excess clothing consumption severely harms the environment, through greenhouse gas emissions, resource degradation and water pollution. For consumers, however, the trade-off between this environmental impact and the convenience of “fast fashion” is hidden at the point of purchase. We present a pre-registered, experimental test of two clothing eco-l...

Electromagnetic fields (EMFs) are invisible fields of energy generated when electricity flows through wires or a device. Radiofrequency EMFs (RF EMFs) are a specific type of EMF generated by telecommunications masts and devices. There is no scientific evidence that RF EMFs lead to negative health outcomes, particularly at the levels observed in pub...

A basic function of government is to manage environmental risks. This requires measurement of how the public perceive different risks, but it is hard to measure risk perceptions in a neutral, unbiased way. In a pre-registered experiment with a nationally representative sample (N = 800), we tested the effects of survey instructions on perceived risk...

Mitigating the climate crisis requires changes to policy, business, and consumer behaviour in favour of sustainability. For consumers, use of private motor vehicles and consumption of meat and dairy are high-impact behaviours. To assist behaviour change, it is useful to understand where in the process of change people currently are and what motivat...

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to both exacerbate and ameliorate existing socioeconomic inequalities. In this article, we provide a state-of-the-art interdisciplinary overview of the potential impacts of generative AI on (mis)information and three information-intensive domains: work, education, and healthcare. Our goal is...

Objectives: This study investigated levels of trust and attributions of blame in connection with a cervical screening programme following a controversy related to the programme's audit, incorporating an experimental test of the effectiveness of new information materials. Design: We compared responses in Ireland (N = 872) to equivalent responses...

Mitigating climate change requires large and, by historical standards, rapid changes to policy, business processes and individual behaviour. This report examines awareness of and perceived difficulty with individual behaviour change with respect to two actions associated with high levels of emissions: transport and food choice. A nationally represe...

Humankind's main defence against the virus that cuases COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2), besides vaccine development, was co-ordinated behaviour change. In many countries, co-ordination was assisted by tracking surveys designed to measure self-reported behaviour and attitudes. This paper describes an alternative, complementary approach, which was undertaken i...

A basic function of government is to manage environmental risks. This requires measurement of how the public perceive different risks, but it is hard to measure risk perceptions in a neutral, unbiased way. In a pre-registered experiment with a nationally representative sample (N = 800), we tested the effects of survey instructions on perceived risk...

Replacing car travel with walking and cycling is at the core of the shift to healthier and more sustainable societies. Implementing dedicated infrastructure is a common measure to achieve this aim. But policymakers in multiple countries regularly contend with two obstacles: designing infrastructure that people will make use of and securing public s...

Generative artificial intelligence, including chatbots like ChatGPT, has the potential to both exacerbate and ameliorate existing socioeconomic inequalities. In this article, we provide a state-of-the-art interdisciplinary overview of the probable impacts of generative AI on four critical domains: work, education, health, and information. Our goal...

Objectives: The World Health Organization has declared that COVID-19 is no longer a public health emergency of international concern. Nevertheless, it remains a public health issue, and seasonal vaccinations, at the same time of year as influenza vaccinations, will be necessary. When the first vaccines were administered in 2020, decision-makers had...

Exposure to radon gas is a leading cause of lung cancer. Testing homes for the gas is straightforward, yet most people do not undertake tests even when offered freely. We report a pre-registered randomised controlled trial of communications to encourage test uptake. Households (N = 3500) in areas at high risk of radon exposure were randomly assigne...

The origins of the Behavioural Research Unit (BRU) in Ireland lay in the financial crisis. The calamity was particularly acute in Ireland, where policymakers could see that orthodox economic models based on competition and rational consumer choice had provided insufficient underpinnings for policy. Starting in 2012, a group of Ireland’s economic re...

Problem gambling (PG) describes gambling behaviour that is disruptive or damaging to individuals, and includes behaviours (e.g., betting more than one can afford to lose) and experiences (e.g., feeling guilt and anxiety about gambling). This study set out to measure the prevalence of PG in Ireland. Participants completed the questionnaire online to...

Exposure to radon gas is a leading cause of lung cancer. Testing homes for the gas is straightforward, yet most people do not undertake tests even when offered freely. We report a pre-registered randomised controlled trial of communications to encourage test uptake. Households (N = 3,500) in areas at high risk of radon exposure were randomly assign...

Gambling is a large and growing industry. With that growth, there has also been growing concern about the potential harms that can arise from problem gambling. In late 2022, new legislation was introduced in Ireland to provide for more stringent regulation of the gambling industry and to establish an independent regulator, the Gambling Regulatory A...

Background Overuse of antimicrobials is a challenging global issue that contributes to antimicrobial resistance. Despite widespread awareness of the problem among members of the medical community and various attempts to improve prescription practices, existing antimicrobial stewardship programmes are not always effective. In our view, this may refl...

The present research investigates how consumers engage with the Irish financial retail market when choosing and switching financial products. Data were gathered from a nationally representative sample of 2,903 individuals who are involved in their household financial decisions. The study used interactive online tasks to record product ownership and...

Replacing car travel with walking and cycling lowers emissions, improves air quality and makes communities healthier. Rates of active travel typically increase when dedicated infrastructure is implemented. But policymakers in multiple countries regularly contend with two obstacles: designing infrastructure that people will make use of and securing...

Replacing car travel with walking and cycling is at the core of the shift to healthier and more sustainable societies. Implementing dedicated infrastructure is a common measure to achieve this aim. But policymakers in multiple countries regularly contend with two obstacles: designing infrastructure that people will make use of and securing public s...

Previous research in multiple judgment domains has found that nonlinear functions are typically processed less accurately than linear ones. This empirical regularity has potential implications for consumer choice, given that nonlinear functions (e.g., diminishing returns) are commonplace. In two experimental studies we measured precision and bias i...

Objectives The study set out to measure public understanding of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) and how effectiveness wanes with time since vaccination. Because perceived VE is a strong predictor of vaccine uptake, measuring perceptions can inform public health policy and communications. Study DesignOnline randomised experiment.Method The study...

Objectives The study set out to measure public understanding of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) and how effectiveness wanes with time since vaccination. Because perceived VE is a strong predictor of vaccine uptake, measuring perceptions can inform public health policy and communications. Study Design Online randomised experiment. Method The s...

Contact-tracing mobile phone apps can play a role in controlling the spread of COVID-19, but their success hinges on widespread public acceptance, uptake and use, which are difficult for public administrators to foresee. We report on a rapid behavioral pre-test of COVID Tracker, Ireland’s contact-tracing app, prior to its launch. A large sample of...

In crisis situations like the Covid-19 pandemic, human behaviour plays a vital role. Understanding how people behave, why, and what might change their behaviour is thus crucial for governments and public health authorities. Such understanding can be enhanced through the use of behavioural science. This paper reviews some examples of the actual use...

Generations differ in their contribution to climate change and susceptibility to its effects. Contextualising climate change as an intergenerational issue may therefore alter public engagement. We report a pre-registered, online experiment with a youth sample (N = 500, aged 16-24 years) in Ireland that tested whether highlighting generational diffe...

Physical inactivity is a significant driver of health and social inequalities, particularly affecting socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. This poses a major challenge to policymakers worldwide. Despite the large volume of original research and reviews that focus on the design and evaluation of interventions to increase physical activity, t...

Regulators acting on behalf of the public need to understand the interests of the people they represent. This paper describes a collaboration with the OECD and Scotland's water industry to deploy randomised behavioural experiments to investigate preferences for water charges. In a study conducted online (n = 500) and face-to-face (n = 100), partici...

Many households lack savings to cushion them from financial shocks. While behavioural economics offers insights into why some households who want to save may fail to do so, successful behavioural interventions to increase precautionary saving are elusive. We incorporated multiple evidence-based "nudges" and "boosts" into a savings account applicati...

Many households lack savings to cushion them from financial shocks. While behavioural economics offers insights into why some households who want to save may fail to do so, successful behavioural interventions to increase precautionary saving are elusive. We incorporated multiple evidence-based "nudges" and "boosts" into a savings account applicati...

Objective Vaccination campaigns against COVID-19 will only be successful if enough people want to take the vaccine. We tested a government communications intervention to encourage uptake. Design A pre-registered randomised controlled trial. Methods A large, nationally representative sample were randomly assigned to see one of eight posters. The po...

We report a multi-stage online experiment (n=1,320) that tested multiple hypotheses regarding the communication of solutions for people with problem debt. We report four main findings. First, decision trees made it easier for people to locate solutions appropriate to their circumstances. Second, the merits of describing debt solutions using an inte...

Radon exposure in homes is a leading cause of lung cancer, but the rate at which householders test for it is low. In a pre-registered experiment with a nationally representative sample of adults (N = 1,700), we used psychological theory to design interventions to increase perceived risk from radon and motivate testing. Results show that providing i...

People have limited capacity to process and integrate multiple sources of information, so how do they integrate multiple contextual risk factors for Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infection? In June 2020, we elicited risk perceptions from a nationally representative sample of the public (N = 800) using three psychologically-distinct tasks. Response...

We describe the development of a risk assessment profile tool that incorporates data from multiple domains to help determine activities and events where rapid antigen detection tests (Ag-RDT) could be used to screen asymptomatic individuals to identify infectious cases as an additional mitigation measure to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The to...

Rapid Antigen Detection Tests for SARS-CoV-2 (hereafter RADT) are potentially a valuable tool in our response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but their usefulness depends on the perceptions, decisions and behaviours of those taking RADT. Successful implementation of RADT programmes requires people to take RADT and, importantly, to do so in line with publ...

An invaluable feature of the approach developed by AT&T to providing superior Value to their customers has been the best-practice process that drove the cycle of continuous improvement, based on the concept of a Value tree. This process has since lent itself readily to the task of creating superior Value for other stakeholders. Culture and its vari...

With the ongoing rollout of smart meters in Ireland, time-of-use (ToU) tariffs are currently being introduced as a new way to pay for electricity. Such tariffs can bring important benefits to both consumers and society, in terms of reduced electricity bills and CO2 emissions, respectively. At the same time, some consumers may find it more difficult...

This paper offers the perspective of a behavioural scientist advising and providing evidence for Ireland's government during the coronavirus pandemic. It describes how behavioural research informed the public response in the early months of the crisis, but lost influence as political conflict increased. It proposes some broader lessons for managing...

Applying behavioural science to policy often involves field experiments and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) to test how policy changes are implemented. In this chapter, we argue that there is broader scope for behavioural methods to be applied earlier in the policy cycle, such as to diagnose the risk for consumer detriment. We use examples from...

How do people perceive and integrate multiple contextual risk factors for COVID-19 infection? We elicited risk perceptions from a nationally representative sample of the public (N = 800) using three psychologically-distinct tasks. Responses were compared to a sample of medical experts who completed the same tasks. The public underestimated the risk...

Contact-tracing mobile phone apps have the potential to play a role in controlling the spread of COVID-19, but their success hinges on widespread uptake by the public. We report a study that behaviourally pre-tested COVID Tracker, Ireland's contact-tracing app, prior to its launch with a large sample of smartphone users. The study was funded by the...

Contact-tracing mobile phone apps have the potential to play a role in controlling the spread of COVID-19, but their success hinges on widespread uptake by the public. We report a study that behaviourally pre-tested COVID Tracker, Ireland's contact-tracing app, prior to its launch with a large sample of smartphone users. The study was funded by the...

“Eco-labels” are intended to provide consumers with important environmental product information. However, it can be difficult for consumers to integrate multiple sources of information into decisions, especially in contexts such as grocery shopping in which consumers must make multiple decisions and juggle priorities, including time. Some disclosur...

Objective Self-isolation is a vital element of efforts to contain COVID-19. We set out to test whether decision aids can support self-isolation. Design We conducted a pre-registered online experiment with a nationally representative sample (n = 500). Three stages tested: (i) whether decision trees help people to decide whether they need to self-is...

Background Since 1950, the portion size of many snack foods has more than doubled and obesity rates have tripled. Portion size determines energy intake, often unwittingly. Purpose This paper tests whether salient visual cues to portion size on the packaging of high fat, sugar, or salty (HFSS) snacks can reduce consumption. Methods Two preregister...

Objective: Accurate measurement of compliance with COVID-19 guidance is important for public health policy and communications. Responses to surveys, however, are susceptible to psychological biases, including framing effects and social desirability. Our aim was to measure the effects of these biases on estimates of compliance with public health gui...

Rationale Maintaining social distance during the COVID-19 pandemic can save lives. We therefore set out to test communication strategies to promote social distancing. Objective We aimed to test two novel public health messages against a control message. The first was designed to exploit the “identifiable victim” effect by highlighting the risk of...

Main findings - A nationally representative sample of 1,000 people overwhelmingly agree that the Test-and-Trace system is extremely important for controlling the spread of COVID-19. - Almost 90 per cent of people are aware they can arrange a test for COVID-19 by calling their own GP, but only 30 per cent know they can do so by calling any GP or an...

Consumers who actively search for better broadband deals may benefit from lower prices or improved service quality compared to those who do not. If, however, consumers differ in their propensity to engage with the market and actively search, these potential benefits may not accrue equally. This paper investigates differences in consumer search acti...

Self-isolation is a vital element of efforts to contain COVID-19. We report an online experiment with a nationally representative sample (N=500) that tested behaviourally informed decision aids to support self-isolation. The experiment had three stages that tested interventions designed to help individuals to: (i) decide whether they need to self-i...

A consumer purchasing a car can benefit the environment by choosing a vehicle with lower emissions and higher fuel efficiency. In addition to emissions of CO2, Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions have serious implications for the environment and public health. Working with a national environmental protection agency, we conducted a consumer choice experi...

The introduction of smart technology and dynamic tariffs (such as time-of-use tariffs) provides multiple potential benefits for electricity markets. However, time-of-use tariffs generate additional complexity for consumer tariff choices in electricity markets. How well consumers can choose between tariffs, and whether certain tools improve these ch...

Social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic will save lives. We tested communication strategies to promote social distancing via an online experiment (N = 500) commissioned by Ireland’s Department of Health. A control group saw a current informational poster. Two treatment groups saw similar posters with messages that highlighted: (i) the risk o...

This rapid, narrative review summarizes useful evidence from behavioral science for fighting the COVID-19 outbreak. We undertook an extensive, multi-disciplinary literature search covering five issues: handwashing, face touching, self-isolation, public-spirited behavior, and responses to crisis communication. The search identified more than 100 rel...

This paper demonstrates the use of “big data” to target behavioural interventions that aim to reduce environmental pollution. The data relate to ongoing noncompliance with the EU Nitrates Directive among farmers in Ireland. We compiled more than 1.2 million records from disparate administrative data, then employed multi-level statistical analysis t...

Encouraging consumers to switch to lower-rate mortgages is important both for the individual consumer’s finances and for functioning competitive markets, but switching rates are low. Given the complexity of mortgages, one potential regulatory intervention that may increase switching rates is to provide independent advice on how to select good mortg...

Identifying whether hyperbolic advertising claims influence consumers is important for consumer protection, but differentiating mere “puffery” from misleading advertising is not straightforward. We conducted a pre-registered, online experiment (N = 367) to determine whether pseudo-technical advertising claims about broadband speed bias consumer cho...

We introduce and demonstrate a novel experimental method for investigating the accuracy of consumer decision making. The Surplus Identification (S-ID) task exploits techniques from detection theory. Experimental control over surpluses is established by incentivizing participants to adopt a predetermined, objectively defined preference function. Sur...

We manipulated the presence and spatial location of calorie labels on menus while tracking eye movements. A novel "lab-in-the-field" experimental design allowed eye movements to be recorded while participants chose lunch from a menu, unaware that their choice was part of a study. Participants exposed to calorie information ordered 93 fewer calories...

As more people use online tools to assist financial decision-making, it is important to understand how the design of these tools influences consumers’ choices. We conducted an experiment (N = 180) using a simulated product comparison tool for personal loans, which tested whether choices were affected by the default settings for properties of the lo...

This paper investigates whether exposure to explanatory diagrams can affect a major financial decision. In a controlled experiment, participants were given Pension Benefit Statements with or without one or two diagrams, before answering incentivised questions that measured recall, comprehension and choice of contribution rate. The diagrams had at b...

Personal contract purchase (PCP) plans are innovative and increasingly popular forms of car finance. PCPs are inherently more complex than established financing options. The present study used experimental behavioural science to explore consumers’ comprehension of PCP plans and scope for beneficial interventions. Choice tasks, product rating tasks,...

Despite long-standing market liberalisation and efforts to reduce switching costs, many consumers have never switched telecoms provider. This paper investigates how consumer and service characteristics relate to switching intentions, using a sample of fixed-line broadband, mobile telephony and landline telephony customers from a 2015 survey conduct...

Behavioural science is increasingly applied to policy in many countries. While the empirical approach to policy development is welcome, we argue with reference to existing literature that laboratory experiments are presently underused in this domain, relative to field studies. Assumptions that field experiments, including randomised controlled tria...

While survey results are always subject to measurement error, it is generally assumed that surveys of cultural participation are no less accurate than surveys in other areas of social science. The present chapter casts doubt on this assumption via a cautionary tale of events that befell an established national survey in Ireland. An organisational c...

Following the Euro changeover in January 2002, Euro Area consumers perceived an increase in inflation of striking magnitude and persistence, despite low and stable recorded inflation. We offer a behavioural analysis that rationalises this apparent economic illusion. We propose that the changeover induced perceptual noise that increased consumers’ u...

We examine the impact of participation in sport at secondary school on post-school pathways using a survey of Irish school-leavers, distinguishing between those who dropped out of sport during their secondary school years and those who continued playing in their final school years. We find that members of this latter group are, on completion of sec...