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A model of London and the South East
Abstract
A general description is presented of how the MEPLAN model has been implemented and used within a study area comprising London and the South East of England. The model operates at a strategic level and represents both the land-use system and the transport system, together with the ways in which these two systems interact to determine the future evolution of the region. There is an explanation of the main theoretical structures included in the MEPLAN model and the way in which these are used to represent the aspects of relevance to the study area. Over the last four years this model has been used by decisionmakers to inform the debate on a wide range of policy issues. These uses of the model are reviewed and conclusions on its worth are drawn.
... (1) The immediate antecedents of our modelling approach are studies by Echenique (1985;2004), Echenique and Williams (1980), and Echenique et al (1990). These and other related studies generated a family of fully operational models, which have been successfully tested and applied in the policy context in different countries across the world (de la Barra et al, 1975;Echenique et al, 1995;Flowerdew, 1977;Hirton and Echenique, 1979;Hunt, 1994;Hunt and Simmonds, 1993;Williams, 1994;Williams and Echenique, 1978). These utilitymaximisation models are formally equivalent to the entropy-maximising type of models pioneered by Wilson (1970), indicating, at least in the mathematical sense, the convergence and mutual acceptance of the two main paradigms of the aggregate LUSI models (Anas, 1983;de la Barra, 1989;Wegener, 2004). ...
... One possible reason is that academics and practitioners often focus on incremental developments in the respective models, rather than extensive and systematic discussion of the modelling processes and assumptions (DETR, 1999). Therefore, our aim is, first, to present a systematic analysis of a formal framework of a generic LUSI model based on the random utility approach in section 2. It is based largely on previous models proposed by Echenique (1994;2004), detailed by Williams (1994), Jin (1994), and Hunt (1994), and implemented for several studies (Echenique et al, 2012;Jin et al, 2002). Section 3 discusses the implementation of this generic model to UK regions and develops an extensive socioeconomic accounting process that includes a relationship between land use and floorspace; we focus in section 4 on the calibration and we contribute a new enhancement (1) ReVISIONS (Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbour hoods) project was led by the University of Cambridge in collaboration with the Universities of Leeds, Exeter, Surrey, Aberdeen, Newcastle, and Aberystwyth. ...
... The model is rooted in an extensive social accounting matrix which is based mainly on openly available official data sources. Unlike many of its predecessors (DETR, 1999;Echenique, 1994;Williams, 1994), the model includes socioeconomic processes across the whole national economy, rather than a narrow area of interest and its immediate surroundings. An empirical framework of the model is built up around a specifically constructed social accounting matrix. ...
Random utility modelling has been established as one of the main paradigms for the implementation of land-use spatial interaction (LUSI) models. We present a detailed formal description of a LUSI model that adheres to the random utility paradigm through the explicit distinction between utility and cost across all processes that represent the behaviour of agents. The model is rooted in a social accounting matrix, with the workforce and households accounts being disaggregated by socioeconomic type. Similarly, the land account is broken down by domestic and nondomestic land-use types. The model is developed around two processes. Firstly, the generation of demand for inputs required by established production; when appropriate the implicit production functions are assumed to depend on costs of inputs, which give rise to price-elastic demands. And, secondly, the spatial assignment of demanded inputs to locations of their production; here sequences of decisions are used to distribute demand both spatially and aspatially, and to propagate costs and utilities of production and consumption that emerge from imbalances between supply and demand. The implementation of this generic model is discussed in relation to the case of the UK. The model has been developed for testing the sustainability of integrated economic, spatial development policies, and output information for estimating urban form and the potential for decentralised technologies. The inputs include area-wide socioeconomic forecasts and the allocation policy of urban land. The outputs include the spatial allocation of activities and prices of labour, goods and services, land, and floorspace. They are combined with the land inputs to estimate the changes in the density of urban form and activities. These outputs can then be used to estimate the demands for infrastructure services and the potential for decentralised infrastructure supply. We focus primarily on the calibration process and its methodological implications, including a method of refining the calibration and demonstrate how this improves the spatial representation of the utility of land.
... Crop lands at site II and site III are absent because of absence of permanent settlement while, it has increased from 30 ha in 1990 to 46 ha in 2010 at site I. Site I has only crop land area compared with other two sites. This increase is due to conversion of forest land, grassland and woodland into cropland (Houghton, 1994;Williams, 1994;Kaul et al., 2009). ...
... The area of site III acts as a grazing site in summers as the tribal's and nomads drive their livestock to these areas because of pleasant temperature. This increase in pasture land is mainly due to the conversion of grass land, woodland and forest into pastures (Houghton, 1994;Williams, 1994;Sang et al., 2013). ...
The human interference and modification of landscape has occurred globally but has increased incidence and consequences in the developing countries mostly due the population growth, fragility of landscape and unplanned development. The aim of the study is to detect the land use changes between 1990-2010 using satellite images of IRS-IC LISS-III (2010) and LANDSAT TM (1990) and SOI topographic maps. During the 20 years all the three sites have shown major land use changes. Among these, site I has undergone positive changes into Cropland 46 ha (14.64%), Horticulture land 12 ha (3.82%), Built-up 2 ha (0.63%) while, the areas of site II has shown an alarming decrease in pasture land with 7 ha (2.22%), Sparse forest land 12 ha (3.82%). However, the site III has shown a remarkable decrease in the area of Dense forest land 56 ha (17.82%), water bodies 5 ha (1.59%) as well as depicts marked increase in the area of Scrub land 136 ha (43.31%), Pasture land 65 ha (20.70%). These changes have clearly established that the Hirpura wildlife sanctuary is under an imminent threat to its very existence. Thus, it becomes imperative that the government should prepare working plans for its conservation which has not taken yet.
... · to model the location patterns of households and services, including an endogenous estimation of the zonal rents for residential and commercial floorspace, within the LASER integrated land use and transport model (Williams, 1994) · to model the transport of passengers and freight in the EUNET Trans-Pennine corridor model (Jin and Williams, 2000) · to model the transport of freight throughout all of the EU in the SCENES model, which includes separate I/O tables for each of the EU member states (SCENES, 2001). ...
... The third major zonal element of costs for inclusion in the industrial location model is the location cost associated with the land and floorspace in which production is located. Although this location cost element was not included within the EUNET Trans-Pennine model, it has been included in a number of other spatial I/O models as described in general in Williams (1979), and specifically for the LASER model in Williams (1994). The location rent is estimated endogenously within the model by adjusting the rent in a zone so as to ensure that the competition by firms for location in the space available in the zone does not exceed the capacity of that space. ...
Project number 10551148 File reference Orignls\Wa_c\
... 11 Cambridge. MEPLAN, the latest in a sequence of models built on multiregional inputoutput techniques is being applied to numerous urban regions in the world (Echenique et al. 1990;Hunt and Simmonds 1993;Echenique 1994;Williams 1994;Hunt 1994). ...
... -5-LUT: the '5-Stage Land-Use Transport Model' developed by Martinez for Santiago de Chile (1991;1992a;1992b). -MEPLAN: the integrated modeling package developed by Marcial Echenique & Partners (Echenique et al. 1990;Simmonds 1993, Echenique 1994;Williams 1994;Hunt 1994). -LILT: the Leeds Integrated Land-Use/Transport model developed by Mackett (1983;1990c;1991a;1991b). ...
The urgency of the environmental debate has renewed the interest in the application of inte- grated models of urban land use and transportation. In the United States new legislation inspired by growing environmental awareness such as the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 requires that transportation planning must consider the interaction between transportation and land use in a consistent fashion - as it can be done only by land-use transportation models. However, this new interest in land use models also presents new challenges to the land use modelling community. A new generation of activity-based travel models and new neighborhood- scale transportation planning policies require more detailed information on household demo- graphics and employment characteristics and the location of activities. Moreover, the models need to be able to predict not only economic but also environmental impacts of land-use transportation policies. Today there exist several operational urban land-use transportation models which have the potential to respond to these challenges. At the same time there exist exciting opportunities to incorporate new theoretical developments and methodologies into the field. The paper reviews the current state of the art of operational land-use transportation models using criteria such as comprehensiveness, overall structure, theoretical foundations, modeling techniques, dynamics, data requirements, calibration and validation, operationality and applica- bility and evaluates their suitability with respect to the new requirements and speculates about the most promising avenues to further improvement and diffusion of this kind of model.
... In terms of our modelling approach, its most immediate antecedents are studies by Echenique (1985;2004), Echenique and Williams (1980), Echenique et al (1990). These and some other related studies generated a reputed family of fully operational models, which have been successfully tested and applied in the policy context in different countries across the world (de la Barra et al, 1975;Flowerdew, 1977;Hirton and Echenique, 1978;Williams and Echenique, 1978;Hunt and Simmonds, 1993;Williams, 1994;Hunt, 1994; Echenique et al, 1 ReVisions stands for Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods. This project is conducted at the University of Cambridge in co-operation with the University of Leeds, University of Exeter, University of Surrey, University of Aberdeen, Newcastle University and University of Aberystwyth. ...
... Unlike many of its predecessors (Echenique, 1994;Williams, 1994;DETR, 1999), the discussed model is calibrated in a way which takes into account socio-economic processes across the whole national economy, rather than a narrow area of interest and its immediate surroundings. The model is rooted in an extensive social accounting matrix which is mainly based on openly available official data sources. ...
Random utility modelling has been established as one of the main paradigms for the implementation of land use spatial interaction (LUSI) models. Despite widespread application of such models, the respective literature provides relatively little detail on the theoretical consistency of the overall formal framework of the random utility based LUSI models. We present a detailed formal description of a land use spatial interaction model that adheres to the random utility paradigm through the explicit distinction between utility and cost across all processes that represent the behaviour of agents. The model is rooted in a social accounting matrix, with the workforce and households accounts being disaggregated by socio-economic type. Similarly, the land account is broken down by domestic and non-domestic land use types. The model is developed around two processes. Firstly, the generation of demand for inputs required by established production; when appropriate the implicit production functions are assumed to depend on costs of inputs, which give rise to price-elastic demands. And, secondly, the spatial assignment of demanded inputs to locations of their production; here sequences of decisions are used to distribute demand both spatially and a-spatially, and to propagate costs and utilities of production and consumption that emerge from imbalances between supply and demand. The implementation of this generic model is discussed in relation to the case of the UK. We primarily focus on the calibration process and its methodological implications. We also briefly discuss extended capabilities of the model which can be achieved by integrating it with relevant infrastructure modelling tools.
... For example, in the MEPLAN (Williams, 1994;Simmonds, 1994) and TRANUS (De la Barra, 1995), models classified as integrated model, the spatial choices on the labor market, housing market and origin-destination choices of the transport model are inter- related and solved simultaneously. The many inter-twined processes in these models make it complex to estimate and calibrate the model; and model specific procedures have been developed to calibrate the model in an iterative process both on transport statistics, as average trip length, and the spatial distribution of residents (see LASER enhancement report, ME&P 2002). ...
... The labor market in LUTI-models is generally simplified as the modeling of the spatial distribution of jobs and the interaction with the labor force. The MEPLAN model (Williams, 1994) distinguishes basic (exporting, not producing for the region) and non-basic employment according to the economic base theory. The hierarchical structure in MEPLAN is similar to Lowry's Metropolis model; basic employment attracts the population and the population attracts the local (non-basic) employment. ...
... Land-use itself was considered in most of the strategy studies, but was given only limited attention in the formal analysis. In the case of the APRIL model of London, formal analysis of land-use effects was provided using the pre-existing MEPLAN land-use/transport interaction model of London and the South-East (Williams, 1994), from whose transport sub-model APRIL was developed. In the case of the START models of Edinburgh and Merseyside, an add-on component, DSCMOD, was originally developed to provide "land-use change indicators" -socalled in order to emphasise that the outputs were conditional indications rather than land-use forecasts. ...
... The development process is generally assumed to be a speculative one, ie the commissioning of buildings by their prospective occupier is not explicitly considered (except where ma jor developments are exogenously introduced into the model). The need to model land, the basic space resource within which floorspace is constructed, was considered, with some thought being given to the idea of omitting it altogether (as in the MEPLAN model of London and the South-East -see Williams, 1994) or of treating it only implicitly by recording and adjusting the density of development. In the end, it was decided that the model would be distinctly easier to use and to interpret if land was included explicitly, though the land variable was not fully used in the initial implementation. ...
In this paper the design of a new land-use modelling package, DELTA, is described. The focus is on the thinking behind the design and the model characteristics that have resulted rather than on the formal mathematical specification. The package has been designed to link with any appropriate transport model so as to create a dynamic system for land use - transport interaction modelling. DELTA itself is a model of a variety of different processes of change in an urban system. It is intended to represent these processes of change over a succession of relatively short (one-year or two-year) periods. The different processes are fairly weakly linked to each other within any one time period but important feedback effects, both positive and negative, come into play over time, both within DELTA and through interaction with transport. The model design is not based on any one key theoretical concept, but on the view that differing concepts are needed to represent the various processes. The processes modelled can be divided into those which primarily affect spaces and those which primarily affect activities. Those modelling change in spaces predict changes in the quantity and quality of floor-space available for occupation. Those referring to activities deal with: (a) household transitions and employment growth or decline; (b) location or relocation, and competition for space (the property market); and (c) the employment status of individuals. The location or relocation model is the main locus of interactions both between activities and space and between land use and transport. The influence of transport operates through sets of accessibility measures and through environmental variables.
... Traditionally, LUTI models assume an equilibrium between supply and demand in the land use and transport markets (Anas and Liu, 2007;Echenique, 2011;Williams, 1994), while recent developments of LUTI models consider the different speeds of urban changes and concentrate on their outcomes over time (Simmonds et al., 2013;Wegener, 2004). Based on these substantial contributions, we select a combined equilibriumrecursive structure (Jin et al., 2013) for our model representation, in which the end state of one time period serves as the initial state of the subsequent time period: the equilibrium component captures short-to-mediumterm adaptions of travel and location choices, while the recursive component follows up long-term development trajectories under different greenspace configurations. ...
Greenspaces at the city scale, like greenbelts, green-wedges or green-grids, have become well-known instruments for shaping urban economic activity and land use. The economic impacts of such instruments are complex and hard to measure. This article addresses one of the rarely studied problems of measuring the economic impacts of alternative greenspace configurations in fast growing cities. In such cities, there is an uncertain basis for making such greenspace related decisions, for example the assumptions about the cities’ total population and economic activity. Decision makers have few tools to measure and predict the potential economic costs and benefits of alternative greenspace configurations. We present a new model that allows tracking over time of both non-divisible land use decisions and a multitude of gradual adaptations made by businesses and consumers. The model is applied to Greater Beijing, one of the fast growing cities that is actively exploring alternative greenspace configurations to control urban expansion. The modelling results suggest that compared with the trend-development scenario of no greenspace intervention, a strict greenbelt would decrease the overall consumer surplus in Beijing by US$3.3 billion, while an adaptive mix of green-wedges and green-grid would increase consumer surplus by US$3.6 billion per year in 2030. The adaptive configuration also reduces car journeys by 11% in Beijing. More generally, modelling results show that a flexible design of strategic greenspaces and careful siting of new development around metro stations within the designated greenspaces could benefit consumers and promote sustainable travel.
... Este componente subjetivo se calcula a partir del siguiente razonamiento. Fase II: el proceso de simulación La base conceptual del modelo (la teoría de interacción espacial) es eminentemente sistèmica ya que considera de manera simultánea los 25 Este mecanismo de cálculo iterativo se utiliza ampliamente en los modelos integrales de crecimiento urbano (por ejemplo, Batty, 1976;Putman, 1983Putman, , 1991Williams, 1994;Rohr y Williams, 1994;Jin, 1994; Garrocho y Álvarez, 1995) y se explica en mayor detalle en Foot, 1978. 26 La interpretación de los valores de Wjs es interesante: los valores superiores a uno indican que la población de "¿"sobreestima los atributos de la localidad "j"; los valores menores a uno indican que la población de "¿"subestima los atributos de la localidad ')"; y los valores iguales o cercanos a uno indican que la población de "¿"percibe correctamente los atributos de la localidad ')". ...
En este artículo se pone a prueba la capacidad de la teoría de interacción espacial para apoyar la construcción de un modelo operativo que simule los flujos de migración interestatal de México. Se presentan los principales elementos conceptuales y operativos del modelo de migración interna de México (MIM), se explican su diseño y proceso de construcción, se analizan los resultados de su calibración, y se realiza un ensayo de simulación. Los resultados del MIM son alentadores y sugieren que los modelos derivados de la teoría de interacción espacial tienen un gran potencial como herramientas que facilitan las tareas de diseño y evaluación ex-ante de políticas migratorias y de distribución espacial de población.
... The complexity of this connection has undergone great shifts, since it is determined by local, regional, state, nationwide, and even global issues. Following the pioneering classical urban micro-economic theories of Ricardo (1821), Von Thunen(1826), Wingo(1961), Alonso(1964) and Lowry(1964), among others, that provide the standard reference point to understanding the relationship between land use and transportation, other researchs done on Land Use-Transport Interaction (LUTI) and their modeling has attracted much interest (Boyce et al. 1981; Landis 1992; Simmonds, 2001; Miller et al. 1998; Anderstig and Mattsson 1991; Putman, 1983 Putman, /1991 Kim, 1989; Mackett 1991; Hunt and Echenique, 1993; Williams, 1994; Anas, 1998; Martinez, 1996, 2002; Mackett, 1983 Mackett, /1990 Wilson, 1997; Anderstig and Mattsson 1998; Webster et al. 1988; Wegener and Fürst 1999; Albeverio, 2008; Allen, 1997; Batty, 2007 Batty, , 2008 Ewing and Cervero, 2010; Samet, 2013; Coppola et al., 2013; Acheampong and Silva, 2015)However, existing LUTI models are unable to forecast the impact of future urban-policy responses, accessibility impacts land values and shapes the location behavior of households and firms, which in turns impacts observed patterns of spatial interactions. Thus, to adequately assess and evaluate the long-term impacts of investment and policies affecting land use on transport and vice versa, a more robust methodology is needed for deriving accessibility indices as the feedback mechanism of the land-use-transport link. ...
This paper investigates major characteristics of Tehran’s urban growth structure, how various land use factors such as “density”, “diversity”, “design” and “accessibility” affect travel behavior, population growth and land use development, and future travel demands. Tehran city is currently developing in ways that are likely to increase sprawl and automobile-dependency, which increase problems including traffic and parking congestion, consumer costs, traffic accidents, pollution emissions and inadequate mobility for non-drivers. This analysis indicates that the growth management policies in Tehran’s Comprehensive Plan can significantly reduce vehicle travel and associated problems, resulting in a more sustainable urban development path. This information is useful for evaluating the ability of policies such as Smart Growth, New Urbanism and Accessibility Management to help achieve transport-land use planning objectives.
... the Leeds Integrated Land-Use/Transport model developed by Mackett (1983;1990c;1991a;1991b). MEPLAN the integrated modelling package developed by Marcial Echenique & Partners (Echenique et al., 1969;Echenique and Williams, 1980;Echenique, 1985;Echenique et al., 1990;Hunt and Echenique, 1993;Hunt andSimmonds, 1993, Echenique, 1994;Williams 1994;Hunt 1994). METROSIM the microeconomic land-use and transport model developed by Anas (Anas and Moses, 1978;Anas, 1982;Anas and Brown, 1985;Anas and Duann, 1986;Anas et al., 1987;Anas, 1992;Anas and Arnott, 1993;Anas, 1994;. ...
This report is a part of the results of the EU project TRANSLAND (see Berichte aus dem Institut für Raumplanung 47). The project investigated innovative approaches to the integration of land-use and transport planning in urban regions. The report presents engineering, economic and social-science based theories and empirical studies to explain the interaction between land use and transport - that land use determines traffic flows and that transport infrastructure changes land-use patterns. In addition the report provides an overview of the state of the art of computer models for the simulation of land use and transport. Based on these theories and models the effectiveness of policies to influence land use and transport in urban regions is assessed.
... Therefore, some important models were excluded from this paper. First, input-output models such as MEPLAN (Echenique et al. 1990, Hunt and Simmonds 1993, Mackett 1991b, Williams 1994 were not considered. This is because the inputoutput models mainly represent broad economic changes. ...
A two-way interaction between transport and land-use has been one of the central research topics of transport studies. Thus, it is not surprising that there have been numerous approaches taken to investigate this reciprocal relationship. This paper critically examines the existing literature to see how effectively the current models represent this mutual interaction. This examination process intends to form a prototype reference that compares and contrasts the advantages and disadvantages of the various models. This undertaking is dealt with based on theoretical, methodological and operational characteristics of a respective model. Some conclusions and suggestions are also drawn.
... FRED is the interface module which converts flows from production and consumption zones into flows of goods and people. TAS is the freight/passenger * drawn based on (US DOT, 2001) and (Williams, 1994) Fig1. The Linkages between modules and time in the MEPLAN model transportation modules which allocate FRED outputs to modes and routes. ...
This paper assesses a wide range of alternative policies and scenarios for TAMA urban monorail by applying an urban simulation package. The package is MEPLAN model that is designed as a general mathematical framework for modeling the spatial economies of cities or regions. We used MEPLAN model for assessing comprehensive impacts of the route extensions of the monorail by making some adjustments to Tokyo region. First, we calculated the base case in which existing land-use, employment, and transportation network have been used to adjust model results to actual data, and second, compared it to the results of two scenarios: the extension to HAKONEGASAKI route and MACHIDA route. We evaluated how many passengers will be increased or decreased on which lines. Meaningful conclusions on its worth are drawn.
... In terms of the modelling approach used, its most immediate antecedents are studies by Echenique (1985Echenique ( , 2004, Echenique and Williams (1980), Echenique et al. (1990). These and some other related studies generated a reputed family of fully operational models, which have been successfully tested and applied in the policy context in different countries across the world (de la Barra et al., 1975;Flowerdew, 1977;Hirton and Echenique, 1978;Williams and Echenique, 1978;Geraldes et al., 1978;Hunt and Simmonds, 1993;Williams, 1994;Hunt, 1994;Echenique et al., 1995). These utility maximisation models are formally equivalent to the entropy-maximising type of models pioneered by Wilson (1970), indicating, at least in the mathematical sense, the convergence and mutual acceptance of the two main paradigms of the aggregate LUTI models (Anas, 1983;de la Barra, 1989;Wegener, 2004). ...
Random utility modelling has been established as one of the main paradigms for the implementation of land use and transport interaction (LUTI) models. Despite widespread application of such models, the respective literature provides relatively little detail on the theoretical consistency of the overall formal framework of the random utility based LUTI models. To address this gap, we present a detailed formal description of a generic land use and spatial interaction model that adheres to the random utility paradigm through the explicit distinction between utility and cost across all processes that imply behaviour of agents. The model is rooted in an extended input-output table, with the workforce and households accounts being disaggregated by socio-economic type. Similarly, the land account is broken down by domestic and non-domestic land use types. The model is developed around two processes. Firstly, the generation of demand for inputs required by established production; the estimation of the level of demand between sectors, households and land use types is supported by social accounting techniques. When appropriate the implicit production functions are assumed depended on costs of inputs, which gives rise to price-elastic demands. Secondly, the spatial assignment of demanded inputs (industrial activity, workforce, land) to locations of production; here sequences of decisions are used to distribute demand (both spatially and, when necessary, a-spatially) and to propagate costs and utilities of production and consumption that emerge from imbalances between supply and demand. The implementation of this generic model is discussed in relation to the case of the Greater South East region of the UK, including London, the South East and the East of England. We present the calibration process, data requirements, necessary assumptions and resulting implications. We discuss outputs under various land use strategies and economic scenarios, such as regulated versus competing land uses, constrained versus unconstrained densities, and high versus low economic and population growth rates. By adjusting the design constraints of the spatial planning and infrastructure supply strategies we aim to improve their sustainability.
... The MEPLAN package has four interrelated modules (Echenique, 1994;Williams, 1994). The first is the land use module, which estimates the spatial location of activities such as employment and population, and produces trade between zones. ...
Urban planners are faced with the decision of what planning policy to pursue in order to achieve the best possible future. Many cities in developed nations use comprehensive models that simulate various aspects of the urban system, capable of predicting implications of a given set of policy inputs, to assist the planning process. However, in developing countries, demographic and socioeconomic data with appropriate spatial disaggregation are difficult to obtain. This constrains the development of such comprehensive urban models to support planning decisions. In the absence of models, the plan-making process usually inclines towards a more intuitive approach.
... The method consists in disaggregating the output of a MEPLAN-type Land Use and Transport Interaction Model (see Williams, 1994;Echenique et al., 1990;Jin and Williams, 2002, and SOLUTIONS WP2) within a particular zone. ...
... MEPLAN is a comprehensive land-use and transport interaction modelling package that can represent strategic multi-modal networks/services and estimate transport demand based on the spatial economic interactions between households, employment and land use (see e.g. Echenique, 1994; Williams, 1994; Harris, 1996). The assessment was carried out following the evaluation framework developed in MC-ICAM, Deliverable 3 (Proost et al., 2003). ...
... With different conditions of transport supply, the modal shares vary significantly, however, car travel is always dominant. The models applied belong to three different types of urban land-use transport model: the MEPLAN model (Hunt, 1994;Martino and Maffii, 1999;Williams, 1994) was implemented in four urban regions, the TRANUS model (de la Barra, 1989) in two and the IRPUD model (Wegener, 1996;1998; in one. The models simulate the effects of policies on the location behaviour of households and firms and on the resulting mobility patterns in the case study regions. ...
The objective of the EU research project PROPOLIS (Planning and Research of Policies for Land Use and Transport for Increasing Urban Sustainability) was to assess urban strategies and to demonstrate their long-term effects in European cities. To reach this goal, a comprehensive framework of methodologies including integrated land-use, transport and environmental models as well as indicator, evaluation and presentation systems was developed.
Sustainable development is viewed as comprising the environmental, socio-cultural and economic dimension. Thirty-five indicators were defined to measure the three dimensions of sustainability, such as air pollution, consumption of natural resources, quality of open space, population exposure to air pollution and noise, equity and opportunities and economic benefits from transport and land use.
Indicator values are derived from state-of-the-art urban land-use and transport models. A number of additional modules, including a justice evaluation module, an economic evaluation module and a GIS-based raster module, were developed and integrated to provide further indicator values. Both multicriteria and cost-benefit analysis methods are used to consistently evaluate the impacts of the policies. The environmental and social dimensions of sustainability are measured using multicriteria analysis for the evaluation of the indicators, whereas cost-benefit analysis is used for the economic dimension. The modelling and evaluation system was implemented in seven European urban regions: Bilbao (Spain), Brussels (Belgium), Dortmund (Germany), Helsinki (Finland), Inverness (Scotland), Naples (Italy) and Vicenza (Italy).
A large number of policies were tested with the modelling and evaluation system in the seven urban regions. Policies investigated are land use policies, transport infrastructure policies, transport regulation and pricing policies and combinations of these. Besides a common set of policies examined in all seven urban regions, also city-specific local policies were assessed in each urban region.
The first part of the paper introduces the methodology and the model system developed. A particular focus is on the development of indicators describing urban sustainability derived from different indicator modules in the modelling system. The second part presents selected aggregated results of the policy testing and evaluation for Dortmund as one of the seven urban regions. The paper concludes with recommendations on how successful strategies to enhance the long-term ustainability of urban regions should look like.
... The models applied belong to three different types of urban land-use transport model: the MEPLAN model (Hunt, 1994;Martino and Maffii, 1999;Williams, 1994) is implemented in four urban regions, the TRANUS model (de la Barra, 1989) in two and the IRPUD model (Wegener, 1996;1998; in one. The models simulate the effects of policies on the location behaviour of households and firms and on the resulting mobility patterns in the case study regions. ...
The objective of the EU research project PROPOLIS (Planning and Research of Policies for Land Use and Transport for Increasing Urban Sustainability) is to assess urban strategies and to demonstrate their long-term effect in European cities. To reach this goal, a comprehensive framework of methodologies including integrated land use, transport and environmental models as well as indicator, evaluation and presentation systems has been developed. Sustainable development is viewed as comprising the environmental, socio-cultural and economic dimension. Thirty-five key indicators were defined to measure the three dimensions of sustainability, such as air pollution, consumption of natural resources, quality of open space, population exposure to air pollution and noise, equity and opportunities and economic benefits from transport and land use. Indicator values are derived from state-of-the-art urban land use and transport models. A number of additional modules, including a justice evaluation module, an economic evaluation module and a GIS-based raster module, were developed and integrated to provide further indicator values. Both multicriteria and cost-benefit analysis methods are used to consistently evaluate the impacts of the policies. The environmental and social dimensions of sustainability are measured using multicriteria analysis for the evaluation of the indicators, whereas cost-benefit analysis is used for the economic dimension. The modelling and evaluation system is currently being implemented in seven European urban regions: Bilbao (Spain), Brussels (Belgium), Dortmund (Germany), Helsinki (Finland), Inverness (Scotland), Naples (Italy) and Vicenza (Italy). A large number of policies are being tested with the modelling and evaluation system in the seven urban regions. Policies investigated are land use policies, transport infrastructure policies, transport regulation and pricing policies and combinations of these. Besides a common set of policies examined in all seven urban regions, also city-specific local policies are being assessed in each urban region. The first part of the paper introduces the methodology and the model system developed. The second part presents first results of the policy testing and evaluation. The paper concludes with reflections on how successful strategies to enhance the long-term sustainability of urban regions can be developed.
... The models applied belong to three different types of urban land-use transport model: the MEPLAN model (Hunt, 1994;Martino and Maffii, 1999;Williams, 1994) was implemented in four urban regions, the TRANUS model (de la Barra, 1989) in two and the IRPUD model (Wegener, 1996;1998; in one. The models simulate the effects of policies on the location behaviour of households and firms and on the resulting mobility patterns in the case study regions. ...
The objective of the EU research project PROPOLIS (Planning and Research of Policies for Land Use and Transport for Increasing Urban Sustainability) was to assess urban strategies and to demonstrate their long-term effect in European cities. To reach this goal, a comprehensive framework of methodologies including integrated land use, transport and en-vironmental models as well as indicator, evaluation and presentation systems were devel-oped. The paper presents results for the metropolitan area of Dortmund, Germany. The re-sults show that sustainability in Dortmund will deteriorate compared with the current situation. Public transport investments are not enough to halt this decline: they attract more passen-gers but accelerate urban sprawl. Car pricing policies improve urban sustainability. Land use policies have little effect but support the impacts of car pricing and public transport improve-ments. Best results are achieved by policy combinations, i.e. combinations of land use poli-cies and push and pull transport measures such as car pricing and improvements of public transport.
... Existing computer models were used to forecast the locational and travel behaviour of households and firms in response to the policy levers. The models used were: for the WSER, LASER (London and South East Region) (Williams, 1994) owned by the Department for Transport and Transport for London; for the North East, TAMMS (Tyneside Area Multi Modal Study) owned by the Highway Agency (Arup, 2001a); and in Cambridge, MENCAM (Mentor Cambridge), owned by Cambridgeshire County Council and developed by Marcial Echenique and Partners was used. All models were based on MEPLAN (Echenique, 1994; and updated for the study. ...
Land-use and transport systems are an important determinant of carbon dioxide emissions from urban regions. It is often asserted that urban compaction is the spatial policy best able to constrain travel and emissions, but evidence supporting this assertion is limited, particularly with respect to the combined emission from transport and land use. Here, using land-use – transport interaction models, a residential dwelling type model, and transport and emission models, we forecast and assess carbon dioxide emissions from transport, dwellings, and commercial space to 2031 for a range of spatial strategies realistically investigated for three English regions of decreasing size (the Wider South East region, Tyne and Wear, and Cambridge). Our results reveal that compaction can reduce emission relative to other spatial scenarios but that the differences are small, about 5% between extremes, an order of magnitude less than emission growth observed over the trend period. Form has more influence for settlements where the pattern and proximity of employment, housing, and services can make cycling, walking, and public transport provision more feasible. We conclude that pricing and technology measures offer better prospects for combating the growth in carbon emissions of urban regions, but that the type of urban form delivered is likely to be a significant determinant in the type of clean energy technology that can be implemented.
... Finally, land-use/transport models (7) are arguably the most comprehensive methods that can be applied, of which the 'Martin Centre models' have had the most applications (e.g. Williams, 1994). ...
This article, focusing upon the UK, examines the relevance to strategic planning of methods to estimate the impacts of transport policy on land use processes. The study applied three differing techniques for forecasting these impacts to a common study area, and assessed planners’ views on each. The methods comprised a Delphi survey, a simple static land use model, and a linked land-use/transport model. It was found that many factors influenced planners’ views on appropriate methods. In general, comprehensive-modelling methods could provide a tool suitable for the needs of planners, but only if the underpinnings of the model were clear.
... This basic modelling framework was embodied in a general software package, called MEPLAN 18 , in 1984(Hunt, J. D. and Simmonds, D. C., 1993 p. 231. A description of the MEPLAN package and its application is given in (Williams, I. N., 1994). ...
Thesis (doctoral) - Technische Universität, Wien, 2003.
... the Leeds Integrated Land-Use/Transport model developed by Mackett (1983;1990c;1991a;1991b). MEPLAN the integrated modelling package developed by Marcial Echenique & Partners (Echenique et al., 1969;Echenique and Williams, 1980;Echenique, 1985;Echenique et al., 1990;Hunt and Echenique, 1993;Hunt andSimmonds, 1993, Echenique, 1994;Williams 1994;Hunt 1994). METROSIM the microeconomic land-use and transport model developed by Anas (Anas and Moses, 1978;Anas, 1982;Anas and Brown, 1985;Anas and Duann, 1986;Anas et al., 1987;Anas, 1992;Anas and Arnott, 1993;Anas, 1994;. ...
This paper investigates innovative approaches to the integration of land-use and transport planning in urban regions. Engineering, economic and social-science based theories and empirical studies are analyzed regarding their ability to explain the interaction between land use and transport - that land use determines traffic flows and that transport infrastructure changes land-use patterns. In addition, this paper provides an overview of the state of the art of computer models for the simulation of land use and transport. Based on these theories and models the effectiveness of policies to influence land use and transport in urban regions is assessed.
... The case city models applied belong to three different integrated urban land use and transport model types: the MEPLAN model (Hunt, 1994; Martino and Maffii, 1999; Williams, 1994) is implemented in four urban regions, the TRANUS model (De la Barra, 1989) in two, and the IRPUD model (Wegener, 1996; 1998;) in one. ...
The objective of the EU research project PROPOLIS (Planning and Research of Policies for Land Use and Transport for Increasing Urban Sustainability) is to assess urban strategies and to demonstrate their long-term effect in European cities. To reach this goal, a comprehensive framework of methodologies including integrated land use, transport and environmental modelling as well as indicator, evaluation and presentation systems have been developed. Sustainable development is viewed as comprising the environmental, socio-cultural and economic dimension. About thirty key indicators have been defined to measure the three dimensions of sustainability, such as air pollution, consumption of natural resources, quality of open space, population exposure to air pollution and noise, equity and opportunities and economic benefits from transport and land use. Indicator values are derived from state-of-the-art urban land use and transport models. A number of additional modules, including a justice evaluation module, an economic evaluation module and a GIS-based raster module, have been developed and integrated to provide further indicator values. Both multicriteria and cost-benefit analysis methods are used to consistently evaluate the impact of the policies. The environmental and social dimensions of sustainability are measured using multicriteria analysis for the evaluation of the indicators, whereas cost-benefit analysis is used for the economic dimension. The modelling and evaluation system is currently being implemented in seven European urban agglomerations: Bilbao (Spain), Brussels (Belgium), Dortmund (Germany), Helsinki (Finland), Inverness (Scotland), Naples (Italy) and Vicenza (Italy). A large number of policies will be tested with the modelling and evaluation system in the seven urban regions. Policies to be investigated are land use policies, transport infrastructure policies, transport regulation and pricing policies and combinations of these. Besides a common policy
... Este componente subjetivo se calcula a partir del siguiente razonamiento. Fase II: el proceso de simulación La base conceptual del modelo (la teoría de interacción espacial) es eminentemente sistèmica ya que considera de manera simultánea los 25 Este mecanismo de cálculo iterativo se utiliza ampliamente en los modelos integrales de crecimiento urbano (por ejemplo, Batty, 1976;Putman, 1983Putman, , 1991Williams, 1994;Rohr y Williams, 1994;Jin, 1994; Garrocho y Álvarez, 1995) y se explica en mayor detalle en Foot, 1978. 26 La interpretación de los valores de Wjs es interesante: los valores superiores a uno indican que la población de "¿"sobreestima los atributos de la localidad "j"; los valores menores a uno indican que la población de "¿"subestima los atributos de la localidad ')"; y los valores iguales o cercanos a uno indican que la población de "¿"percibe correctamente los atributos de la localidad ')". ...
PIP:
"In this paper spatial interaction theory is challenged in order to test if it is suitable to support the design and construction of an operative model of the Mexican internal migration flows. The main conceptual and operative aspects of the model are presented, the design and model building process is explained, the results of the calibration analysis are examined and a simulation exercise of migration policy evaluation is undertaken. The operative migration model presented in this paper seems useful to analyze and evaluate numerous migration policies, which suggest that spatial interaction theory offers a promising conceptual and operative foundation to analyze internal migration flows in Mexico." (EXCERPT)
For over four decades the integration of land use and transport models has contributed to systematic studies of economic change and employment location in cities and city regions around the world. This paper discusses one continuously running work stream that originated as a spatial model of urban stock and activity (Echenique et al. 1969) and later became encapsulated in the MEPLAN land use and transport modelling package (Echenique, 2004). One central feature of this approach is its emphasis upon simultaneously solving the employment location model with the production, trade, residential location and transport demand models for any specific year. Fast improving data availability and computer power have enabled an increasingly more complex series of models under this framework to find extensive use in supporting real policy decisions of major infrastructure investment, urban expansions and regeneration. In turn, practical policy needs have guided the priorities of model development.
The paper first reviews the key ideas leading up to the formulation of the MEPLAN package. It then outlines the main applications and the experience gained from them. Current developments of this approach, particularly to incorporate advanced social accounting matrices and recursive spatial equilibrium modelling are reported next. It concludes with an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the approach and its future potential from a policy perspective.
This paper presents a recursive spatial equilibrium model for urban activity location and travel choices in large city regions that anticipate major development or restructuring. In the model, producer and consumer choices that adjust quickly to stimuli reach temporary equilibria subject to recursively updated activity churn, background trends, estate development, and transport supply. The city region's performance at each time horizon affects the recursive variables for the next. The model builds on field leaders of urban general equilibrium, spatial interaction, and nonequilibrium dynamic models, and offers theoretical and practical improvements in order to fill an important gap in longrange urban forecasting. Linking the equilibrium and nonequilibrium models enables the simulation of path dependence in urban evolution trajectories that neither could produce in isolation. At the same time the model provides quantification of impacts of different policy interventions on a consistent basis for a given time horizon. The model is tested on the main archetypal urban development strategies for large-scale development and restructuring.
In current practice, transportation planning often ignores the effects of major transportation improvements on land use and the distribution of land use activities, which might affect the accessibility impacts and economic efficiency of the transportation investment strategies. In this paper, we describe the model specification and application of the land use transport interaction model TIGRIS XL for the Netherlands. The TIGRIS XL land-use and transport interaction model can internationally be positioned among the recursive or quasi-dynamic land-use and transport interaction models. The National Model System, the main transport model used in Dutch national transport policy making and evaluation, is fully integrated in the modeling framework. Accessibility modeling and evaluation are disaggregated and fully consistent, which is not common in accessibility modeling research. Logsum accessibility measures estimated by the transport model are used as explanatory variables for the residential and firm location modules and as indicators in policy evaluations, expressing accessibility benefits expressed in monetary terms. Modeling results indicate that accessibility changes from transport investments in the Netherlands have a significant but modest positive influence on the location choice of residents and firms. This is probably mainly due to the spatial structure and already dense and well developed transport networks, and the large influence of national, regional and local governments on the Dutch land use markets.
The idea that computer models of urban land use and transport might contribute to more rational urban planning was bom in the 1950s and culminated in the 1960s. The ‘new tools for planning’ (Harris, 1965) were thought to be a major technological breakthrough that would revolutionise the practice of urban policy making. However, the diffusion of urban models faltered soon after the pioneering phase, for a variety of reasons (see Batty, 1994; Harris, 1994). The most fundamental reason was probably that these models were linked to the rational planning paradigm dominant in most Western countries at that time. They were perhaps the most ambitious expression of the desire to ‘understand’ as thoroughly as possible the intricate mechanisms of urban development, and by virtue of this understanding to forecast and control the future of cities (Lee, 1973). Since then the attitude towards planning has departed from the ideal of synoptic rationalism and turned to a more modest, incrementalist interpretation of planning that has at least partly determined the failure of many ambitious large-scale modelling projects.
Since completing a trend-delphi-based regional forecast and transportation plan in 1996, the Portland, Oregon, Metro has developed an integrated transportation and land use model (MetroScope). The model is being used to explore several regional growth management options as well as to produce a new regional forecast and transportation plan. Comparing MetroScope results with the previous forecast reveals that integrated transportation and land use models may produce different results in regard to trip length, vehicle kilometers traveled, traffic congestion levels, mode and route choice, and employment and household locations. Compared with trend models, integrated models robustly respond to alternative land regulation and transportation investment policy options, allowing planners and officials an opportunity to evaluate the differences in land use and transportation arising from different policy choices. Moreover, the integrated models produce far more data on factors such as real estate prices, tenure choice, residential and nonresidential real estate output, land consumption, redevelopment, and density.
IntroductionIntegrating Models within the Framework of the SHIRE 2000 GISThe Integrated Land Use and Transport Modelling FrameworkThe Emissions ModelModelling Emissions Impact in CambridgeshireConclusion
AcknowledgementsReferences
The previous chapters in this Handbook have shown that spatial development, or land use, determines the need for spatial interaction, or transport, but that transport, by the accessibility it provides, also determines spatial development. However, it is difficult to empirically isolate impacts of land use on transport and vice versa because of the multitude of concurrent changes of other factors. This poses a problem if the likely impacts of integrated land-use and transport policies to reduce the demand for travel are to be predicted. There are principally three methods to predict those impacts. The first is to ask people how they would change their location and mobility behaviour if certain factors, such as land use regulations or transport costs, would change ('stated preference'). The second consists of drawing conclusions from observed decision behaviour of people under different conditions on how they would be likely to behave if these factors would change ('revealed preference'). The third method is to simulate human decision behaviour in mathematical models. All three methods have their advantages and disadvantages. Surveys can reveal also subjective factors of location and mobility decisions, however, their respondents can only make conjec-tures about how they would behave in still unknown situations, and the validity of such con-jectures is uncertain. Empirical studies based on observation of behaviour produce detailed and reliable results; these, however, are valid only for existing situations and are therefore not suited for the assessment of novel yet untested policies. In addition it is usually not possible to associate the observed changes of behaviour unequivocally with specific causes, because in reality several determining factors change at the same time.
Urban modelling theories and operational models date back to the sixties and seventies, and have been constantly improved since then. It seems therefore that there should be no problem with addressing city sustainability issues. After all, these models claimed to be tools to help planners in choosing the best policies, exactly the same objectives that we need sustainability models to fulfil.
The problem is that urban models have ignored many problems considered today as most pressing. They have not only ignored environmental issues, but also most quality of life issues. If we look at diagrams by Wilson (1981, p.265; 1977, p.3) or Wegener (1994), it is clear that these models focus on land use (understood as location and intensity of activities) and transport problems. The name “urban model” might be then misleading. This does not mean that environmental problems were not modelled at all: they were, but this research area was outside the interests of urban researchers and planners.
One possibility for the way forward is to use old models, integrate them and extend them to include missing components. In order to do this, one should first specify the components to be included in the integrated model, taking the sustainability concept and the new modelling objectives as a point of reference.
The use of fractal techniques to model aspects of urban form is now well established. However, to date these have concentrated on specific general attributes of urban form, usually focused at a macro level. In this paper we argue that the urban system is complex and its global spatial attributes related to patterns of activity and movement at the local scale. In order to arrive at a generative model which simulates the pattern of urban development, two interrelated urban spatial systems need to be modelled together. These are the built form system which reflects the pattern of uses and activities associated with the use of particular spaces and the movement system that connects those spaces. We will describe early experiments in spatial modelling which attempt to combine aspects of the two systems in the understanding of the development of informal settlements and low-income housing in developing countries.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington.
In 1991 the Directorate General XVI of the Commission of the European Communities commissioned a study to evaluate the impact of the opening of the Channel Tunnel on the economic development of regions within the European Community. Part of this study required a quantitative analysis of the regional economic effects of this infrastructure which was addressed through the development of a regional economic and transport model using the MEPLAN software package. The MEPLAN regional economic model incorporates a number of economic theories including a spatial adaptation of the Leontief input-output model and random utility theory to represent the linkages between transport infrastructure investment and regional economic development. For this study the European Community was divided into thirty-three zones. The economies of the European Community regions were described by a number of economic sectors. Industrial sectors generated demand for movements of commodities and service sectors generated demand for passenger movements either for business or for tourism or social purposes. The model was calibrated to match, in money terms, trade flows across the Channel. The model was used to test the effects of the opening of the Channel Tunnel, and its effects in conjunction with associated motorway and high-speed rail infrastructure investment through time. The economic effects on different sectors and in the different regions were measured through changes in economic indicators, specifically, changes in 'value added' (the sum of payments on taxation, labour, and profits). The regional economic and transport model that was developed for this purpose is described, concentrating on the theoretical background and implementation of the regional economic model.
This paper examines a variety of issues within the context of two main themes: the formation of travel demand models and economic evaluation measures which are mutually consistent within a theory of rational choice; and a consideration of the structure of models which are representations of the trip decision process over several dimensions: location, mode, and route. Random utility theory is invoked to explore both the role and properties of composite costs or index prices in the ‘recursive’ approach to the structuring of travel choice models, and their significance in the economic evaluation problem. It is shown that the specification of these costs must be made very precisely, with respect to the demand model form chosen, in order to retain the underlying assumption that the traveller is an optimal decisionmaker. It is argued that the structure of ‘simultaneous’ models currently in use is inconsistent with the form of utility function assumed to generate those models. Furthermore, it is shown that the ‘simultaneous’ and ‘recursive’ forms are special cases of a more general choice model structure which takes specific account of correlation or ‘commonality’ of trip attributes.
A number of applications are discussed in which consistent demand models and perceived user benefit measures are constructed. These include the formation of strategic transport planning models and of models for mixed-mode, multimode, and multiroute systems. The formalism allows definitive answers to be given to a number of problems of current interest in transportation planning, which have been incorrectly or incompletely treated.
The Garin - Lowry model is a well-documented spatial interaction model which does, however, leave unanswered questions that relate to the constraint procedure and the supply component. The incorporation of a stock simulation model satisfies both these limitations and if the iterative structure is reformulated the whole is capable of automatic calibration. This paper concentrates on the issue of automatic calibration by presenting a framework within which existing search algorithms can be incorporated, and presents the results of such a calibration and a subsequent run of the model using the automatically derived values for the parameters.
This paper introduces a loose-knit family of spatial-allocation models, which locate entities in two-dimensional space, based on a general framework which merges an input - output type model with a spatial-interaction type model. Explicit attention is paid to the solution and interpretation of constraints on the subtotals generated within these models. In this way a link is forged between the fields of land-use modelling and urban economics. One efficient method of solving a particular form of spatial-allocation model is described in detail and some characteristics of this and alternative approaches are discussed. Four practical applications of the spatial-allocation model framework are outlined to demonstrate its wide range of usefulness in representing spatial-location processes.