Kerstin Cuhls

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• Prof. Dr. phil.
• Project Manager at Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research

Foresight started with the notion of (Science and) Technology Foresight as a part of Technology Assessment (TA) but is now an independent scientific area. For a long time, Foresight mainly aimed at detecting determined futures but has developed into different directions under different headings. Most processes make use of a combination of methods t...

Eines der Anliegen des Netzwerks Zukunftsforschung ist es, den fachlichen Austausch zu theoretischen wie konzeptionellen Entwick­lungen in der Zukunftsforschung vor dem Hintergrund der praktischen Erfahrungen der Netzwerkmitglieder und der interess­ierten Fachöffentlichkeit zu fördern, denn als Kleines Fach lebt die Zukunfts­forschung von einem reg...

FOSTER scenarios

This contribution explains new variants of Argumentative Delphi surveys that can also be used in sociological research, some examples and the learnings from and limits of argumentative surveys with feedback. Argumentative Delphi surveys are not new. As Christian Dayé explains in his book, the early expert surveys and especially the Delphi surveys u...

As the world economy operates more and more through computerised transactions, new possibilities for intertwining criminal and lawful economic activities open up, as well as new opportunities for law enforcement agencies to fight crime. Considering the tremendous and potentially devastating damages caused by criminal economic activities, the issue...

Even though Foresight provides valuable analytical and outlook tools to guide research and innovation processes in a sustainable direction and thereby to facilitate sustainable socio-technical change, the toolkit needs to be adapted to capture multidimensional sustainability in its complexity. Otherwise, innovation may contribute to creating socio-...

The Delphi method has developed from a “classic” to a variety of Delphi methods or “types”, which can have very different functions and are used in different subject areas. Online variants, especially the Real-time Delphi with instant feedback are becoming more and more popular. This introduction explains the different definitions, types and fields...

Defining the objectives and framework conditions of a futures research project is one of the key tasks in project design, and should be performed at the earliest possible stage. A clear formulation of objectives is essential because it is otherwise impossible to determine whether results have fulfilled intended purposes. Clear objectives are also i...

Effective interfaces of knowledge and policy are critical for food system transformation. Here, an expert group assembled to explore research needs towards a safe and just food system put forward principles to guide relations between society, science, knowledge, policy and politics.

This contribution explores the use of a Foresight tool, namely the Dynamic Argumentative Delphi (DAD) survey, in informing policy-making during the design phase of a new Framework Programme in research, technology, development and innovation (RTDI). More specifically, the paper investigates, whether perceived desirability and probability of potenti...

Large-scale Delphi surveys on technology foresight started in the 1960s and involve an average of about 2000 participants answering, potentially, up to about 450 items. This contrasts sharply with the participation and content of the more common, smaller-scale Delphi surveys. Previously, Belton et al. developed “six steps” to underpin a well-founde...

Democracy is under pressure. Not only populist and authoritarian movements contribute to this, but also digitalisation, the internet and social media. This volume presents answers to questions that move us all: How should we meet the challenges posed by hate and deepfakes, by polarisation and platform giants? The authors come from very different di...

Abstract: Digitisation and Common Good In the project "Orientation towards the common good in the age of digitalisation", Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) and the Ethics Centre of the University of Tübingen (IZEW) analysed and developed anthropological and ethical concepts with a focus on Artificial Intelligence (AI)....

Argumentative Delphi-Befragungen gibt es schon seit den ersten Experimenten mit Delphi-Verfahren, die anfangs in zwei oder mehr Runden abliefen (Dalkey 1968; 1969a, b). Neu ist die Variante der dynamischen argumentativen Delphi-Methode (DAD). Sie wurde in Rumänien entwickelt und dort erstmals in nationalen Projekten ausprobiert. Das dynamische, arg...

We contribute to the Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) literature in two ways: (i) we consider how societal aspects are taken into account in research and innovation (R&I) activities in four fundamentally different scenarios, as opposed to analysing current practices; and (ii) put the emphasis on the political conditions of the interactions...

Three key transitions leading to a “safe and just” operating space, with a focus on food systems, emerged during the development of a Foresight study promoted by SCAR (Standing Committee on Agricultural Research1): (a) sustainable and healthy diets for all; (b) full circularity in the use of resources; (c) diversity as a key component of stable sys...

The complexity of socio-technological challenges and the uncertainty of decisions are both increasing. Therefore, there is a need for knowledge-based and option-oriented assessment and advice. Technology assessment (TA) can offer alternative approaches to and perspectives on current decision-making processes. This handbook provides guidance in deve...

This contribution about time and futures is from Foresight. It introduces Foresight as the long-term view into the future or different futures, defined as the more action-oriented “structured debate about complex futures”. The academic counterpart is Futures Research dealing with possible, probable and desirable future developments. Since we regard...

Foresight and Horizon Scanning are often regarded as identical concepts with identical models and purposes. But they can be completely different activities, both in and for any kind of prospective activity as well as for strategy purposes. Scanning is no debate and no strategy building. Whereas Foresight is more process‐oriented and always includes...

Die Delphi-Methode hat sich von einem „Klassiker“ zu unterschiedlichen Delphi-Methoden oder „Typen“ entwickelt, die sehr unterschiedliche Funktionen haben können und in verschiedenen Themenfeldern Einsatz finden. Dabei setzen sich mehr und mehr die online-Varianten durch. Beliebt sind auch Delphi-Methoden mit Instant-Feedback wie das Realtime Delph...

This report provides insights on 100 emerging developments that may exert a strong impact on global value creation and offer important solutions to societal needs. We identified this set of emerging developments through a carefully designed procedure that combined machine learning algorithms and human evaluation. After successive waves of selection...

BOHEMIA aims to support ongoing debates about future European R&I policy by providing a view of needs and opportunities for R&I in Europe from a future perspective, with a time horizon to 2035-2040, and highlighting their implications for EU R&I priorities in the 9th framework programme. This is the end report of BOHEMIA.

The paper presents key contents and the underlying methodological design of the project BOHEMIA: Beyond the Horizon-Foresight in Support of the Preparation of the EU's Future Policy in Research and Innovation. The project was funded by the European Commission and aimed to aid in the preparations of the next RTDI Framework Programme (FP9). In a futu...

Die verschiedenen Ansätze des Technologie-Roadmapping, wie sie in den folgenden Teilen dieses Buches vorgestellt werden, greifen i. d. R. auf die Kompetenz zurück, die innerhalb eines Unternehmens oder auch eines Unternehmensverbundes zur Beurteilung der mittelfristigen technologischen Entwicklung vorhanden ist. Ohne Zweifel ist es nützlich, diese...

The success of Real-Time Delphi studies largely depends on the capabilities of the chosen software-based tool. First, there are currently a number of different tools at the community's disposal. Second, these tools vary widely in terms of their respective capabilities. Consensus as to what qualifies such tools for their academic purpose has not yet...

Das Projekt „Schrumpfende Gesellschaften im Vergleich. Maßnahmen gegen die Folgen des demografischen Wandels“ (SCHRUMPF/SHRINK) untersucht grundlegende Fragen des Umgangs mit bereits spürbaren sowie zu erwartenden gesamtgesellschaftlichen Folgen des demografischen Wandels in Deutschland und vier weiteren Ländern. Auf Basis einer umfangreichen Liter...

This study examines the changes in values and their impacts on the European research and innovation (R&I) landscape in terms of R&I policies, science/technology/innovation (STI) development, and STI application. Methodologically the study looks for weak signals hinting at potential changes in the perception, importance, and weight of the values. It...

Mental time travel can be described as a method of guiding the participants of a workshop into a picture or a whole series of pictures of the future. This should be thought of as a movie rather than static images and includes emotions. Mental time travel is still a new method in foresight processes, in generating futures, futures research or future...

The article discusses quality criteria for futures research in the frame of so-called ‘Futures Map’. This article is the edited and developed version of the article (Futura 1: 60-77, 2015). Based on the comments concerning (Futura 1: 60-77, 2015), we have developed the Futures Map frame and its validity criteria further. The new edition of the arti...

Forward-looking activities aim to better anticipate future opportunities or threats, and to identify issues that are of major importance for the future and the present. Debates about future issues help to understand what is relevant and what can be ignored now. Horizon Scanning has an important role in forward-looking activities: it serves to explo...

Die zweite Gruppe beinhaltet Standards, die sich aus der Unterscheidung gegenüber anderen Formen der Beschäftigung mit der Zukunft ergeben und die die Befassung mit der Zukunft zur Zukunfts-Forschung machen. Zukunftsforschung unterscheidet sich von anderen Formen der Erzeugung von Aussagen über Zukunft dadurch, dass in ihr die Aussagen auf wissensc...

Roadmapping in China and in Germany has different connotations, contexts, meanings and cultural backgrounds. In order to understand what is meant by roadmaps — and not to confuse roadmaps with foresight in general — a comparative analysis was jointly performed by the Beijing Research Centre for Science of Science (BRCSS) under the Beijing Academy o...

I was asked to comment on the article “When is a need a need?” I have to admit, I had to read it again, and the first thought that came to my mind was a picture of Harold A. Linstone at a conference in Hamburg 15 years ago, standing in front of me: “Kerstin, be careful, you are reinventing the wheel. And that is a saying other people already told m...

Science, technology and innovation policy are topics that much has been written about in the last decades. However until today no common understanding has been articulated on what these policy fields are and how they are correlated with daily practice of policy making. The book thus pursuits a completely new approach which goes much beyond existing...

This chapter addresses the efforts of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) to use Foresight processes as instruments in to look into the longer-term future, from which to derive insights into, and recommendations for, research and innovation policies. These efforts have evolved over time. The first projects aimed at providin...

Die Mission der Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft ist es, „international vernetzt anwendungsorientierte Forschung zum unmittelbaren Nutzen für die Wirtschaft und zum Vorteil für die Gesellschaft“ zu betreiben. Die Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft ist dezentral organisiert. Die einzelnen Fraunhofer-Institute tragen dabei mit system- und technologieorientierten Innovat...

This article describes a foresight process that addresses social change and its impacts. Future Radar 2030 is a foresight process, in which tools from foresight are applied in order to work out scenarios and perform a survey. In combination with future workshops, the foresight process and its results have a direct impact on the stakeholders of a Ge...

Befragungen erfreuen sich immer größerer Beliebtheit, sind sie doch inzwischen preiswert und schnell durchführbar, und es gibt Standardanbieter für die Software, die dann „nur“ noch mit Inhalten gefüllt werden möchte. Doch so einfach ist es nicht – denn gleichzeitig nehmen die inhaltliche Qualität, die Überprüfbarkeit und damit Einschätzbarkeit der...

One urgent mission for European research is to focus on the grand challenges of our time. We discuss how this mission was incorporated into a Fraunhofer corporate programme that takes on global challenges by stimulating collaborative research projects across knowledge domains. Fraunhofer’s mission is to conduct innovation-oriented research for the...

Foresight (Vorausschau) ist die strukturierte Auseinandersetzung mit komplexen Zukünften. Foresight ist ein systematischer Ansatz, der sich aller Methoden der Zukunftsforschung bedient. Vorausschau und Zukunftsforschung sind keine eigenständigen Wissenschaften, sondern nutzen nachvollziehbare Methoden unterschiedlicher Disziplinen; deshalb wird die...

Seine Märkte verstehen und die Bedürfnisse seiner Kunden kennen; die technologischen Entwicklungen beobachten und aus all dem die richtigen Schlüsse ziehen. Für Unternehmen aller Branchen und Größen sind dies wichtige Aufgaben, um im Wettbewerb zu bestehen. Ein systematischer Blick in die Zukunft hilft, die Geschäftsplanung auf ein solides Fundamen...

In September 2007, the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) launched a new foresight process which aimed at four specific targets. To achieve them, a tailor-made combination of methods was applied. This paper focuses on the concept design of the process and explains one of the methods — the future online survey — in more detail...

Zukunftsforschung und Vorausschau beschäftigen sich mit dem systematischen Blick in die Zukunft, um Schlussfolgerungen für die Gegenwart ziehen zu können. Hierzu können Befragungen, insbesondere in der Bewertungsphase neuer Ideen oder abzuschätzender Zukunftsrichtungen, einen wertvollen Beitrag leisten. Befragungen basieren auf den Meinungen von Pe...

Information technology in the health sector will continue to be an important topic in the oncoming years. This offers interfaces for new market potential for IT companies. However, which information technologies bring about change? This was the initial question for a Delphi study in the context of the research project FAZIT. In order to find answer...

Ergebnisse im Überblick 1. Informationstechnik und Kommunikationstechnik sind bis 2020 die stärksten Treiber des gesellschaftlichen Wandels Informations- und Kommunikationstechnik sind Spitzenreiter: Bis 2020 haben diese beiden Technologiefelder den größten Einfluss auf alle Bereiche der Gesellschaft, das ergab die Befragung des German Node. Die W...

This chapter addresses Foresight and Future-oriented Technology Analyses (FTA) in the context of their application to the world of business. While there has been a great deal of emphasis on the development and use of FTA in the public sector and by governments, less attention has been directed to the substantial growth in foresight and future analy...

Die verschiedenen Ansätze des Technologie-Roadmapping, wie sie in den folgenden Teilen dieses Buches vorgestellt werden, greifen i.d.R. auf die Kompetenz zurück, die innerhalb eines Unternehmens oder auch eines Unternehmensverbundes zur Beurteilung der mittelfristigen technologischen Entwicklung vorhanden ist. Ohne Zweifel wäre es nützlich, diese d...

This article describes a joint project conducted from 1991 until 1993 by the Japanese National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) and the German Fraunhofer institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI). Some first outcomes, and different alternatives on how to use the data for trend interpretation and priority setting, are de...

The paper describes the foresight approach performed for a German Foundation to identify the topics that are relevant for small- and medium-sized companies during the next 10–15 years to come. The process was clearly structured and was performed in a very short time (about ten months). It included two surveys (similar to the Delphi but with differe...

In the 21st century, intangible resources such as knowledge and social capital have become as necessary to the modern economy as coal, diamonds, and oil were to the past. This shift from product-focused to service-focused economies necessitates a drastic re-thinking of the ways in which we support the mission and business of economic development on...

The paper describes the design and implementation of an evaluation of a participative foresight process, Futur — the German Research Dialogue. Futur aims to enrich the process of strategy development for research priorities by involving a broad array of actors in a combination of different instruments to develop ‘lead visions’. The process of a str...

UNIDO Regional Initiative on Technology Foresight for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Newly Independent States (NIS) aims at responding to the region need for a mid-and long-term development vision as well as for bringing a more technology-oriented focus into the relevant national and regional knowledge-based institutions. The regional ini...

Many forms of analyzing future technology and its consequences coexist, for example, technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, assessment, and foresight. All of these techniques fit into a field we call technology futures analysis (TFA). These methods have matured rather separately, with little interchange and sharing of information on met...

This paper is the description of an ongoing process which is liable to change as a direct result of the experiences learned here from the German foresight process called Futur (after the Latin word for future), which is being conducted on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) to work out priority-setting in research...

The definitions of forecasting vary to a certain extent, but they all have the view into the future in common. The future is unknown, but the broad, general directions can be guessed at and reasonably dealt with. Foresight goes further than forecasting, including aspects of networking and the preparation of decisions concerning the future. This is...

This paper is the description of an ongoing process which is liable to change as a direct result of the experiences learned here from: the German foresight process called Futur (after the Latin word for future) is being conducted on behalf of the German F ederal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) to work out priority-setting in research unti...

To answer the second part of our basic question: We are not fully convinced that our present society has already made optimal use of foresight for its own progress. There is great potential if we look and think ahead. Of course, some people are very sceptical and see no progress in technology and society. For these, foresight is both costly and irr...

The following chapters are divided up in line with the subject areas. The structure of each subject area is laid out in a comparable manner. In view of the wealth of material, however, not every detail can be shown in each case. The selection of the key topics may appear arbitrary, but is based on particularly clear-cut relationships or subjects wh...

The German economy is proud of its high export quotas. The German market is open to international competitors, and Germany itself is at the centre of a far-reaching innovation competition. However, many problem areas remain and make stringent requirements on the economy: setting priorities, the allocation of financial resources, and the strategic o...

As already described, 323, i. e. just a third of the topics were equivalent to the items of the sixth Japanese Delphi Report. This makes possible comparisons in the assessment of future technology. Is the assessment identical to the innovations? Or do we have “national blinkers” on? In terms of ranking, leadership in research and development is ess...

The purpose of this chapter is to provide a summary of the overall results of the German Delphi ’98, to bring out the most important general trends and thus also to provide a comparative yardstick for the separate subject areas and topics in the following chapter 4.

Over 100 topics from the first German Delphi of 1993 survived the critical selection process by the technical committees designed to help ensure their topicality and these items were subsequently queried in an identical manner in the questionnaires of the second Delphi study. A comparison of the results comes directly to mind, because one instincti...

In general linguistic usage megatrends are understood to be social, political or economic developments (e.g. fashion, political preferences) which over a period of years move in a similar direction (e.g. increase in the figures in the annual statistical comparison). Generally speaking, the changes take place gradually and not suddenly. In order to...

How will the world develop? What lies ahead? What are the methods to find it out? What role will innovations play? Will we like them? Or will we need to intervene? These are questions affecting the way we shape our future, and answers to them can be sought in a number of ways: from horoscopes, from calculations, based on “feelings”, or with the aid...

The renewed emphasis on government or national (science) and technology forecasting which can be observed around the world is put into perspectives of methodological developments over half this century. This chapter starts with looking back over 50 years of mixed experiences in government or national technology forecasting, as a part of which also...

Foresight activities are conducted in many countries, but the Japanese were the most active in this field for many years. Most of their activities are based on the Delphi methodology. They published their first Delphi study in 1971 and repeated studies every five years. There is more knowledge available on more than 30 years of foresight with the D...

In 1996, the second German Delphi study (“Delphi '98”) was started. The Delphi '98 is a two-round Delphi expert survey being conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Education, Research, Science, and Technology (BMBF). The study was published in February 1998, and is...

The German foresight experiences started at the beginning of the 1990s with a comprehensive Delphi study conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of the Federal German Ministry for Science and Technology (BMFT, since 1994 BMBF). The second large German Foresight study on the global development of sci...

In diesem Kapitel werden die identifizierten Anwendungsgebiete der einzelnen Länderuntersuchungen gegenübergestellt, die jeweiligen Technologieführerschaften und Innovationsstrategien bestimmt und die unterschiedliche Technologiepolitik der Vergleichsländer beschrieben. Die Anwendungsgebiete werden abschließend in Hinblick auf das Marktpotential un...

Der Ländervergleich im Kapitel 5 hat wichtige Erkenntnisse zum Entwicklungsstand der Miniaturisierung bzw. der Mikrosystemtechnik, zu den Miniaturisierungspotentialen sowie zu den Unterschieden in der Ausrichtung zwischen den USA, Japan und Deutschland offenbart.

Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Studie wurden umfangreiche Arbeiten zur Ermittlung und Auswertung des Standes der Technik durchgeführt. Nachfolgend wird auf eine umfassende Darstellung, die den zur Verfügung stehenden Rahmen weit sprengen würde, zugunsten einer prononcierten Darstellung wesentlicher Randbedingungen, herausragender Entwicklungen und aus...

Technologische Miniaturisierung wird seit den achtziger Jahren in einen engen Zusammenhang mit der Mikrosystemtechnik gebracht. Dies gilt insbesondere für das Land Baden-Württemberg, das z.B. in der Mikromechanik eine konsequente Fortentwicklung seiner traditionellen Stärke in elektromechanischen Industrietechnologien erwartet. Die Mikrosystemtechn...