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Evaluating flood damage: guidance and recommendations on principles and methods
Abstract
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Research Notes: This is a deliverable from the EU funded FLOODsite project, and reviews the methods used to estimate flood damages. CORFU, ideally, shouldn't repeat this work
A2 - Project, FLOODsite
ID - 1
... As a result, adaptation strategies are prioritized over mitigation strategies, as the latter are more global and have less electoral appeal, given their long-term in uence ( Without further delay, policymakers must implement adaptation measures to increase the resilience of water infrastructures (Hallegatte et al. 2020). This type of action usually requires huge investments , and to date, they do not have complete tools that allow them to perform cost-bene t analyses of various measures to improve the resilience of these infrastructures and make more e cient use of public resources (Messner et al. 2007; ...
... We propose a tool that contributes to the evaluation and economic valuation of the direct and indirect damage oods cause to water infrastructures. The proposed tool strengthens policymakers' decision-making because it allows the estimation of the economic losses associated with a lack of appropriate actions (Moftakhari et al. 2017;Becher et al. 2023); it will also serve as an element of awareness for managers and society in general (Messner et al. 2007;Arrighi et al. 2017). This tool, moreover, integrates intergenerational solidarity by updating the economic values through the Social Discount Rate (SDR) (Nesticó and Maselli 2020a). ...
... Establishing water infrastructures' vulnerability to the effects of oods consists of assessing infrastructures' propensity to be negatively affected by oods (IPCC 2023). This concept includes susceptibility to damage and the capacity of infrastructures to assimilate it, differentiating between direct and indirect damage (Messner et al. 2007;Martínez et al. 2018). Direct damage refers to the damage that oods cause to water infrastructures (Messner et al. 2017). ...
Policymakers need to make decisions to increase the resilience of critical water infrastructures. Some of these are already affected by increased flooding because of climate change, and infrastructures will be increasingly affected, as predictions are grim. In this context, policymakers do not have sufficient quantitative tools to perform cost-benefit analyses of the various mitigation and adaptation decisions. For this reason, a more complete tool than those proposed so far is necessary, one that makes it possible to estimate the direct economic losses caused by floods of critical water infrastructures and the indirect economic losses caused by the interruption of water infrastructures’ services to industry.
... Various approaches to create flood damage functions have been published throughout the years (Messner et al. (2007)). Many studies focus on the analysis of statistical data from the aftermath of extreme flood events (Thieken et al (2008)); while others are developed from a synthetic approach (Dottori et al 2016), where estimates of repair cost of the building are calculated for various water depths. ...
... Many studies focus on the analysis of statistical data from the aftermath of extreme flood events (Thieken et al (2008)); while others are developed from a synthetic approach (Dottori et al 2016), where estimates of repair cost of the building are calculated for various water depths. The underlying assumptions and limitations associated with the existing flood damage functions repositories indicated in Messner et al. (2007) is that a database of damage functions was not found for all the 5 countries considered in this study (Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Czech Republic and Poland). In addition, existing damage functions, found in the literature, lack to differentiate for the entire suite of occupancy, construction and height combinations of buildings that are typically required to perform probabilistic loss analysis in CAT models. ...
... Most of the damage information was collected from Germany, therefore the estimated Germany damage functions are used against observational data. It is important to mentioned that the damage function evaluation must be done with caution given that different model uncertainties are embedded in each source (Messner et al. (2007)). For example, damage functions may be built for various hazard and exposure model resolutions (macro, meso and micro scales). ...
... CBA methods are fraught with shortcomings including: 1) the discounting of environmental benefits in a world with decaying ecosystems (Messner 2007); 2) the failure to account for non- ...
... Where ΔPj is the exceedance probability increment and Dj is the average flood damage for the j-th interval, and m is the number of increments (Merz et al. 2009). To simplify this, common practice in economic flood risk assessments is to plot the damage and probability of the set of estimated events, then take the area under the curve as the EAD as shown in Figure Messner (2007). EAD denotes the area under the curve. ...
... Direct building damage is generally sub-divided by the type of asset damaged (Messner 2007): ...
Responding to rising disaster damages and shrinking budgets, Canadian cities are looking for ways to maximize protection from flood damages while minimizing costs. To inform such mitigation investments, quantitative decision-making tools have been used for decades to evaluate structural protection measures (e.g. levees), where estimating the current risk using a ‘static view’ (vulnerability does not change through time) is thought to be adequate. However, no such tool exists to evaluate time-sensitive mitigation measures such as Flood Hazard Regulations (FHRs). Unlike structural protection measures, FHRs mitigate flood damage over time as flood-specific building rules guide new development towards less vulnerable buildings. Despite widespread application of FHRs in Canada since 1975, decision makers have no method to quantitatively evaluate FHRs or answer questions like: how much flood risk do FHRs mitigate?
To address such questions, a dynamic view of flood risk is needed. This dynamic view conceptualizes the intersection of increasing flood hazard and heightened urban vulnerability as driving an accumulation of flood risk. Working towards such a dynamic view, this thesis develops the novel Stochastic Object-based Flood damage Dynamic Assessment model framework (SOFDA) and applies it to single-family homes in the Sunnyside/Hillhurst neighborhood of Calgary, Canada. SOFDA builds on the 2014 Rapid Flood Damage Assessment Model (developed by the Government of Alberta) to create a framework that includes: stochastic uncertainty; property level mitigation measures; and urban redevelopment. Using SOFDA to quantify dynamic flood risk in the study area, a simulation experiment is used to: 1) evaluate the shortcomings of the traditional static view of risk; and 2) explore the potential for optimizing Calgary’s current FHRs.
Model results suggest that, for structural protections in redeveloping neighborhoods (like Sunnyside/Hillhurst), traditional static-methods underestimate the present value of flood risk mitigations. Further, a novel FHR that avoids onerous building restrictions was evaluated and shown to improve the risk mitigation of the current FHRs by 9.7%.
While the transferability of this specific case study is unclear, the significance of vulnerability dynamics for flood risk assessments is obvious. Further, this study unlocks the quantification of FHRs and other time-sensitive mitigations for decision makers, allowing them to optimize from a wider range of flood defenses for their communities, including more tailored and effective FHRs. With this new tool, decision makers can move past a static view of risk focused on today’s communities — and towards more robust and resilient mitigations for the uncertain risks of tomorrow.
... Since direct physical damage constitutes a substantial part of flood-related damage (Borowska-Stefańska, 2016b;Głosińska, 2013;Smith and Ward, 1998), the vast majority of studies focus on its assessment (Merz and Thieken, 2004). Broadly speaking, the process of assessing direct physical damage consists of three stages: 1) determination of flood characteristics; 2) assembling information on land use data and maximum damage amounts; 3) application of stage-damage functions that relate the extent of economic damage to the flood characteristics (Meyer and Messner, 2007;Pistrika and Jonkman, 2010). ...
... However, it is the depth that remains most commonly applied (Penning-Rowsell et al., 2003). As for the information on land use data, it is directly related to the scale of the research (Meyer and Messner, 2007). In this paper, the data referring to the information on land use was aggregated into several forms, following the computing guidelines, as presented in flood risk maps. ...
... In this paper, the data referring to the information on land use was aggregated into several forms, following the computing guidelines, as presented in flood risk maps. On the basis of these listed elements, the extent of any potential physical damage is evaluated by means of stage-damage functions (absolute or relative values) (Messner and Meyer, 2006;Meyer and Messner, 2007). Potential physical damage can be estimated only after we have taken into account spatial management data, flood depth, and the value and flood-related vulnerability of the analysed property (Buczek and Nachlik, 2011;Głosińska, 2013). ...
The study presented herein focuses on determining the relationship between changes in the scale of economic losses between 1990–2018 which occurred in areas of high (10 %) and medium (1%) probability of flood occurrence as well as flood hazard areas due to the destruction of a stopbank, and changes in legislation affecting the spatial development of such areas within the said period. The analysis of changes in the development of flood hazard areas was conducted by means of the Corine Land Cover database. The results of the analysis were later used to evaluate potential economic losses on flood plains, and then spatiotemporal analysis was applied to identify areas with clusters of high and low loss values and the trends regarding their transformations. In consequence, the identification of municipality (Polish: gmina) clusters allowed us to verify the dependence of such transformations on those factors that could impact their intensity. For that purpose, we analysed the coverage of local spatial development plans for individual clusters. On the basis of the conducted studies, we concluded that the implemented legal solutions are not entirely effective, which has also been stated by the legislator. Nevertheless, the introduced legislative changes were beneficial, as the example of Poland shows. The implementation of the Floods Directive has, to a certain degree, decelerated the process of land use and its development in flood hazard areas.
... The property affected by floods is commonly divided into tangible and intangible assets. Tangible assets can be easily estimated in monetary terms [38]. Intangible assets cannot be easily assigned a dollar value since intangible dam- ...
... The property affected by floods is commonly divided into tangible and intangible assets. Tangible assets can be easily estimated in monetary terms [38]. Intangible assets cannot be easily assigned a dollar value since intangible damages occur when there are impacts that have no direct economic market [14]. ...
Flooding has become one of the most dangerous and expensive disasters due to urbanization and climate change. Tools for assessing flood impact are required to support the shift of flood mitigation management from post-disaster recovery and reconstruction to community-driven pre-disaster warning and preparation. This study aims to develop an integrated approach to spatially assess the economic and social losses and ecological gain and identify the geographical factors of locations with high impacts of floods in Brisbane using the datasets collected from both the 2011 and 2022 flood events. Water depth, inundated area, land cover, ecosystem service value, mortality, and morbidity were considered to assess flood impacts. It is found that downstream (above 23,500 m from the upper stream) riverside communities (within 800 m of the river) with low altitudes (below 15 m) are more likely to experience significant flood damage. Flood impacts have bell-shaped developments with elevation and direct distance to the upstream river source and an exponential decline with distances to the river. These findings have implications for formulating future urban land use and community-tailored mitigation strategies, particularly for flood warning and preparation.
... A agricultura, frequentemente, ocupa o solo em muitas áreas sujeitas a risco de inundação, pois são normalmente localizadas em áreas de planície fluvial. Assim, é fundamental definir políticas de gestão de risco de inundações, que devem incidir essencialmente na implementação de medidas de proteção e de mitigação contra este risco, como por exemplo restaurar a plataforma fluvial e informar as populações de como devem aprender a viver com as cheias (Messner et al., 2007;Brémond et al., 2013;Merz et al., 2010;Tapia-Silva et al., 2011;Chau et al., 2013). ...
... conta nos estudos que foram revistos,Brémond et al. (2013). Um alto número de parâmetros (sazonalidade da cheia, profundidade da água, duração, velocidade, depósitos, contaminação e salinidade da água) melhoram os resultados(Merz et al. 2010;Brémond et al. 2013) mas não há nenhuma metodologia definida para os incluir.SegundoMessner et al., (2007), existem também, nas metodologias para o cálculo de danos causados por inundações em áreas agrícolas de micro escala, diferentes passos para uma correta avaliação dos danos.Num estudo elaborado pelos autores anteriormente referidos na Alemanha(Quadro 8), sugerem que o primeiro passo seja o requerimento de dados, de seguida as categorias de dano consideradas, no terceiro passo seriam recolhidas as características da inundação, os dados sobre o uso do solo e posterior avaliação dos ativos e por fim o quarto e último passo seria o cálculo e apresentação dos danos.Quadro 8 -Diferentes passos a seguir nas metodologias para o cálculo de danos causados por inundações em áreas agrícolas de micro escala. Adaptadode Messner et al., (2007). ...
... Ngập lụt đô thị đang trở thành một vấn nạn lớn về môi trường tại hầu hết các đô thị lớn trên thế giới [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Ngay tại nhiều đô thị lớn tại các nước tiên tiến đều bị ngập đường khi gặp các trận mưa lớn. ...
... Giá trị MAE dao động từ 1,75-4,09, sai số trung bình cũng không quá lớn và cũng không chênh lệch nhiều giữa các trạm, lớn nhất tại trạm Thủ Đức và nhỏ nhất là trạm Dĩ An. Giá trị RMSE của cả 3 trạm dao động từ 5,71-12,96, và chênh lệch giữa MAE và RMSE cũng không nhỏ (4)(5)(6)(7)(8)8) Theo dõi biểu đồ thấy rằng giá trị Bias giữa các trạm không chênh lệch nhau nhiều và đều dao động quanh giá trị 1 (từ 0,92-1,07), (Bias tối ưu = 1), do vậy mà xác suất ước lượng khá tốt, trạm Dĩ An và Thủ Đức có Bias <1 nên ước lượng mưa số lần ít hơn so với thực tế, tuy chênh lệnh là khá nhỏ; còn trạm Dĩ An có Bias > 1 nên số lần ước lượng mưa nhiều hơn thực tế nhưng cũng chênh lệch nhỏ. Gía trị Far từ 0,28-0,38 cho biết khả năng ước lượng mưa cũng không có nhiều dự báo khống, khoảng chưa tới 28%-38% trên tổng số lần dự báo. ...
... Knowing the depth of flooding and the value of assets in an area does not provide a direct measure of the resulting damage. Such an understanding can, however, be obtained by adopting a depth-damage function (Messner et al., 2007;Hinkel et al., 2014) ( Figure 1O) which defines the percentage of the value of the assets damaged as a function of flood depth. Following Hinkel et al. (2014), such functions generally have a declining slope, indicating that additional damage decreases with flooding depth, with a common form given by (Messner et al., 2007;Hinkel et al., 2014) ...
... Such an understanding can, however, be obtained by adopting a depth-damage function (Messner et al., 2007;Hinkel et al., 2014) ( Figure 1O) which defines the percentage of the value of the assets damaged as a function of flood depth. Following Hinkel et al. (2014), such functions generally have a declining slope, indicating that additional damage decreases with flooding depth, with a common form given by (Messner et al., 2007;Hinkel et al., 2014) ...
Building on a global database of projected extreme coastal flooding over the coming century, an extensive analysis that accounts for both existing levels of coastal defences (structural measures) and two scenarios for future changes in defence levels is undertaken to determine future expected annual people affected (EAPA) and expected annual damage (EAD). A range of plausible future climate change scenarios is considered along with narratives for socioeconomic change. We find that with no further adaptation, global EAPA could increase from 34M people/year in 2015 to 246M people/year by 2100. Global EAD could increase from 0.3% of global GDP today to 2.9% by 2100. If, however, coastal defences are increased at a rate which matches the projected increase in extreme sea level, by 2100, the total EAPA is reduced to 119M people/year and the EAD will be reduced by a factor of almost three to 1.1% of GDP. The impacts of such flooding will disproportionately affect the developing world. By 2100, Asia, West Africa and Egypt will be the regions most impacted. If no adaptation actions are taken, many developing nations will experience EAD greater than 5% of GDP, whilst almost all developed nations will experience EAD less than 3% of GDP.
... Flood impacts refer to all types of damage with detrimental effects on people, health, property, infrastructure, ecological systems, industrial production and economy (Machado et al., 2005, Messner et al., 2007. It is possible to classify these consequences in tangible or intangible, according to how easy it is to monetarily define the losses, and direct or indirect, regarding the contact (or not) with floodwaters. ...
... 1. Use of urban open spaces with storage functions, also creating opportunities to revitalize degraded urban areas and recover green permeable areas (Miguez et al., 2007;Woods-Ballard et al., 2007). 2. Use of on-source control measures, including small scale actions in urban lots and streets, favouring detention and infiltration-in this category, rain barrels (Prince George's County, 1999), green roofs (Stovin, 2010) and rain gardens (Davis, 2008;Roy-Poirier et al., 2010) appear as possible alternatives. ...
This paper examines the idea of Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MH-EWS) from the perspective of its historical evolution, current relevance, feasibility, and challenges. It is argued that the contemporary efforts towards operationalization of such a system require a focus beyond hydro-meteorological hazards and overcoming considerable coordination challenges at various levels. Taking the case of India, this analysis shows that the existing mechanism favors hazard-specific warning and within that framework there exists scope for only limited scale of integration among different EWS components. However the recent initiatives aimed at development of people centered EWS and institutional deliberations for the multi-hazard platforms are ideal conditions to develop an effective disaster risk based EWS. Realization of this goal requires sustained political and institutional commitment, appropriate changes in policies and procedures and importantly participation of citizens and the promotion of inclusiveness as a key feature.KeywordsMulti-hazard EWSIndiaEarly warningHydro-meteorological hazardDisaster management
... The respective damage D is also described by a number of factors (Scheuer et al. 2011;Meyer et al. 2009): 1) event intensity; 2) number of risk elements; and 3) the ratio of the damage to the intensity of the damaging event, also known as susceptibility. Messner et al. (2007) for Europe and Chinh et al. (2016) for Vietnam in Asia distinguish between different aspects of the vulnerability of an (urban) society in terms of direct and indirect effects: Direct damage thus results from the event itself, e.g. water damage, hurricane injuries or building damage after a tornado. ...
... Indirect damage is related to the damaging event, but cannot be classified simultaneously in terms of time-especially different stress reactions and mental-health aspects of an extreme event or losses or bottlenecks in value chains (trade, industry, commerce) and supply services (food, water and energy supply). While direct damages are mostly quantifiable in monetary terms (tangible costs), indirect damages are often not (intangible costs) (Messner et al. 2007). For the latter, semi-quantitative, partly subjective valuations such as contingent valuation or hedonic pricing must be used (Markantonis and Meyer 2011). ...
Sensitivity to external disturbances such as floods, heat waves, summer droughts, tsunamis or hurricanes is very high in sensitive urban ecosystems. Urban ecosystems are generally vulnerable due to their open material cycles. In particular, the chapter provides insights which effects the foreseeable climate change will have on cities and how they can be counteracted. In addition, it will be shown which problems urban ecosystems in particular are exposed to under the aspect of global change and which concepts are conceivable for a reduction of vulnerability. Special attention is paid to the development of urban resilience. Urban structure, city size and urban region will be given special attention with case studies.
... Gall and Kreft (2013) defined 'loss and damage' as both tangible and intangible unrecoverable impacts induced by a disaster. Messner et al. (2007) specified flood damage as the impact on humans (loss of lives, health sufferings), their belongings (damage of household assets), and the economy (loss of production and competition). The estimation of economic losses caused by such extreme events is an important process for understanding the vulnerability and needs of affected communities (Sharma et al. 2016). ...
... Moreover, Kreibich et al. (2007) added former flood experience and early warnings as risk mitigation measures. Physical vulnerability to resistance parameters results in direct and indirect damage (Hanley et al. 2006), which are termed tangible and intangible impacts, respectively (Messner et al. 2007). ...
Every monsoon period, the households in Dhaka face extensive waterlogging in their localities. This recrudescing event leads to tangible and intangible losses in the lives of these residents. In general, loss and damage assessments for floods focus on insured losses at the meso or macro scale. However, in developing countries such as Bangladesh, household properties are uninsured. Consequently, the losses induced by the waterlogging that occurs in every monsoon period remain unassessed. The current study attempted to capture those losses for the monsoon period of 2017 (May–October) by addressing tangible and intangible losses. Tangible loss and damage were estimated in monetary terms, whereas intangible loss and damage were identified to depict a complete picture of their suffering. This paper conducted household surveys in slums and ground floor residences to include all income groups. Data were elicited from a detailed questionnaire by disaggregating losses into repair and damage costs of household assets, income loss, increases in transport cost, and coping costs associated with disrupted water supply and sanitation. The study findings show that the average losses of high- and middle-income households were higher than those of low-income households for the monsoon period of 2017. Alternatively, poor households shared the highest annual income percentage (approximately 8%) compared to the middle- and high-income households (approximately 5%). Turning to intangible losses, households suffered from health issues and psychological stresses, and all these consequences led to a loss of trust in authorities. As these losses remain undocumented, these study findings manifest significant policy implications regarding understanding urban communities' vulnerability to monsoonal waterlogging events in developing countries.
... Several factors vitally influence the extent of flood damage, i.e., water depth, flow speed, geographical extent and duration [27]. However, the factor most commonly applied in studies is water depth, e.g., [15,18,25,[27][28][29]. ...
... Several factors vitally influence the extent of flood damage, i.e., water depth, flow speed, geographical extent and duration [27]. However, the factor most commonly applied in studies is water depth, e.g., [15,18,25,[27][28][29]. Flood risk also depends on the types of assets exposed, therefore many studies focused on buildings and road infrastructure, as examples of structural flood damage. ...
The provision of detailed information on the impact of potential fluvial floods on urban population health, quantifying the impact magnitude and supplying the location of areas of the highest risk to human health, is an important step towards (a) improvement of sustainable measures to minimise the impact of floods, e.g., by including flood risk as a design parameter for urban planning, and (b) increase public awareness of flood risks. The three new measures of the impact of floods on the urban population have been proposed, considering both deterministic and stochastic aspects. The impact was determined in relation to the building’s function, the number of residents, the probability of flood occurrence and the likely floodwater inundation level. The building capacity concept was introduced to model population data at the building level. Its proposed estimation method, an offshoot of the volumetric method, has proved to be successful in the challenging study area, characterised by a high diversity of buildings in terms of their function, size and density. The results show that 2.35% of buildings and over 122,000 people may be affected by 500-year flooding. However, the foreseen magnitude of flood impact on human health is moderate, i.e., on average ten persons per residential building over the 80% of flood risk zones. Such results are attributed to the low inundation depth, i.e., below 1 m.
... Until the 1990s, the dominant global approaches to reduce the flood impacts is using public protection measures (PPM), such as levees, floodwalls, or other large-scale infrastructural flood defences (Messner 2007;Büchele et al. 2006;Tempels and Hartmann 2014). This static solution to flood management required significant investment. ...
During the past decades in Australia, there have been several flood events leading to damage of assets, disruption to the economy, and considerable costs to all levels of government. One of the reasons for this level of damage was the presence of vulnerable buildings across floodplain areas. Although there is a construction standard for new buildings, many existing building stocks in flood-prone areas have not benefitted from it, and they are still susceptible to damage against future floods. In previous research on different Australian catchment types, five types of flood mitigation measures have been identified as appropriate private strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing common residential building types. Nevertheless, studies show that the majority of property owners are reluctant to take these mitigation actions. Therefore, a key question is raised: what factors prevent property owners from implementing flood mitigation measures at their property in Australian flood-prone areas? In some developed countries, the same issue has stimulated a new line of research in flood risk management studies on the drivers and barriers of flood mitigation behaviour with the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT). In Australia, however, despite this increasing interest, the flood mitigation behaviour of property owners is still poorly understood, and too little attention has been paid to understanding incentive factors better. Considering this gap, this article's main objective is to develop a PMT framework to assess flood mitigation behaviour at various Australian catchment types. In particular, the proposed framework can accommodate five new dependent and independent variables that may be required to apply PMT to Australia successfully.
... Such vulnerability curves generally relate inundation depth and/or velocity to a damage factor (i.e., percentage of asset damage), which is multiplied by the asset value to obtain an estimate of damage. These vulnerability curves are widely available for typical asset classes (Messner, 2007, Huizinga et al., 2017, Wehner et al., 2017, but can also be tailored to particular applications, if sufficient information is available (Smith, 1994, Dale et al., 2004, Pistrika et al., 2014, Nasiri et al., 2016. The maps of inundation depth and damage change over time, in response to changes in rainfall and catchment inflows due to climate change, as well as changes in land use due to socio-economic drivers (Figure 2), ensuring the dynamics of future changes in the flood-land use nexus are captured. ...
... Average house rent and contraction costs were readily available, however, for building content value, an estimated content to value ratio equal to 50% was used (USACE, 1996). Similar to advice by Messner et al. (2007) agricultural losses were calculated based on characteristics of wheat (Brisson et al., 2010). With regards to damage to roads, losses were calculated arising from debris deposition and road-surface damage, requiring minor road maintenance (Doll and van Essen, 2008). ...
... Flood damage estimation is usually used for cost− benefit analysis and to quantify the risk in monetary terms, which is mandatory for taking preventive actions [6,7]. Additionally, flood damage assessment offers crucial data for policy development and decision-making in planning climate change adaptation and flood management [8,9]. ...
... Direct losses refer to losses caused by the immediate physical contact of flood with the environment, properties, and humans. Indirect losses are induced by the direct damages and may occur beyond the spatial and temporal limitations of flood events (Messner, 2007). In this paper, we focus on the assessment and estimation of direct tangible losses of the pluvial urban flooding because they are easy to investigate, have more investigated data, and can reflect the total losses to some extent (Zeng et al., 2019). ...
Urban flooding is one of the most prevalent natural disasters over the world and poses a serious threat to the safety of people's lives and properties. Estimating urban flooding damage quickly for a large-scale city is of great significance for flood control and damage reduction operation. In this paper, a conceptual model that can be used to estimate flood damages in large-scale cities quickly through representative factors, such as rainfall intensity, of flood disaster driver intensity was proposed based on the analysis of flood damage processes in urban areas. It is a statistical model and extended from hyperbolic tangent function, which show an S shape, considering the physical constraints of urban flood damage processes. The proposed model was then applied in three cities of China, including Hangzhou, Jiaxing, and Huzhou. The results show that: (1) for annual flood damages, the most suitable representative factor for Hangzhou and Jiaxing is the maximum 1-day rainfall, and for Huzhou is the maximum 3-day rainfall. (2) the proposed model can describe the relationship between flood damages and disaster driver intensities well for studied cities. The relative bias between simulated and observed damages is less than 5% for all the studied cities.
... En rouge, figurent les dommages générés par la tempête Klaus. ......................................................-66 -Processus cible dont l'ambition vise à la continuité des engagements de service pendant la période de crise..............................................................................................................................-67 -Exemple de la mobilisation d'AXA dans la gestion d'un événement d'ampleur : la tempête Klaus de 2009 (chiffres : AXA)...........................................................................................-69 -Exemple de la cadence de gestion de la sinistralité en termes d'ouverture de sinistres, de la charge de l'événement et du règlement de ces sinistres lors de la tempête Klaus survenue en 2009..Classification des dommages(Messner F. et Meyer V., 2007). ....................................-79 -Diagramme de traitement de l'information pour l'analyse de l'exposition à l'aléa inondation, à l'appréciation des dommages (D'après Chemitte, 2008). ...
Thèse confidentielle jusqu'au 1er avril 2022, diffusée ici dans une version publique dont les parties confidentielles ont été retirées, la version complète sera disponible en ligne à l'issue de la période de confidentialité.
... An object-based building damage ratio (DR b ) was determined from the direct physical damage and repair or replacement of component materials observed on-site ( Table 3). Here, DR b is relative damage proportion of building 'cost to repair/cost to replace' represented as a ratio between 0 and 1 (Messner et al., 2007). On-site DR b estimation requires an observed damage ratio (O DR ) for sub-components using an ordinal scale. ...
Flood damage assessments provide critical insights on processes controlling building damage and loss. Here, we present a novel damage assessment approach to develop an empirical residential building damage database from five flood events in New Zealand. Object‐level damage data was collected for flood hazard and building characteristics, along with relative building component and sub‐components damage ratios. A Random Forest Model and Spearman's Rank correlation test were applied to analyse damage data variable importance and monotonic relationships. Model and test results reveal flood inundation depth above first finished floor level is highly important and strongly correlated with total building damage ratios while flow velocity is important for structure component damage. Internal finishes components contribute highly to total building damage ratios as higher value sub‐component materials are susceptible to direct damage from water contact and indirect damage during repair. The empirical damage data has several implications for damage model development due to the limited heterogeneity of flood hazard intensities and building attributes observed. Extending empirical damage data with synthetic damage data in future would support development of more representative object‐specific damage models to evaluate direct tangible damages for local contexts.
... Many estimates from government agencies [e.g., the European Environmental Agency; see European Environmental Agency (EEA), 2012] and global disaster databases (such as the EM-DAT dataset from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters) undervalue the cost of disasters as they do not account for these types of impacts (Carrera et al., 2015). Several methods exist for attempting to assess indirect economic impacts of natural hazards (Cochrane, 2004;Rose, 2004;Messner, 2007;Okuyama, 2007;Green et al., 2011;Przyluski and Hallegatte, 2011), but are often disaster focused (Santos et al., 2014;Carrera et al., 2015). Various methodologies have different advantages and disadvantages (Carrera et al., 2015 lists several methodologies and provides examples of studies which have used each), but input-output (I-O) methodologies are recognized as broadly applicable and reliable for capturing a broad range of impacts. ...
Environmental changes are predicted to exacerbate changes in flood events, resulting in consequences for exposed systems. While the availability and quality of flood risk analyses are generally increasing, very little attention has been paid to flood impacts related to the commercial market. This is notable given that the commercial market is often made up of the most valuable physical structures in communities, employs much of the local labor force, and generally plays a key role in the sustainability of economies. This study provides the first national spatial model of flood risk for commercial and multi-unit residential buildings at a property level resolution within the United States. This is achieved through the use of high-resolution inputs (hazard and property data), flood hazard information for the four major flood types, multi-return period hazard information, component-based depth-damage functions, GDP and economic multipliers information, and future facing projections. This study estimates that over the next 30 years, the absolute count of commercial and multi-unit buildings with risk will increase 8%, structural damage costs will increase 25.4%, downtime days will increase 29.1%, and economic impacts will increase 26.5%. Additionally, these impacts are concentrated in certain spatial locations. A high resolution model capturing flood risk as related to these commercial buildings is important for a comprehensive understanding of overall flood risk within the United States.
Classification Codes
JEL C30, E00, G17, M20, R10, R30
... These reviews showed that flood damage modeling approaches have typically relied on stage-damage functions at the individual building scale using empirical data from single historical flood events (Merz et al. 2004;Nascimento et al. 2006). Stage-damage functions are commonly used in the insurance industry (Messner 2007) and have been incorporated into the FEMA Hazus-MH tool for modeling physical and economic losses due to natural hazard scenarios (HAZUS-MH 2008). Stage-damage functions deterministically relate flood intensity to loss, but lack uncertainty propagation in the flood damage assessment process. ...
Floods account for the highest annual average losses from natural hazards across the United States, and the occurrence of repeat flood inundation events in United States communities is increasing. Distinguishing damages caused by distinct flood events in a community that has experienced repeated flooding is difficult, and best practices for repeat flood metrology are needed to better inform and validate flood damage models. This paper presents a longitudinal methodology for measuring impacts from repeated flood inundation through a case study of buildings in Lumberton, North Carolina, where major flood events occurred in 2016 and 2018. Sources of uncertainty encountered in flood damage assessments are presented to inform best practices for future investigations of repeat flood events. A novel initial state parameter is introduced for accurate damage characterization for a repeat flood event. This paper presents the first analysis of statistical distributions of damage conditioned on flood depth for a set of buildings that have been flooded in two consecutive events, and the results show how floods with similar intensities occurring in the same area at two different times can exhibit differing distributions. Flood damage data sets for the two floods are combined to derive flood damage fragilities, and we propose the creation of a flood damage database by aggregating data from various flood events across the United States to enable more robust fragility functions that can be applied across geographies and flood events.
... The flood intensity can be represented by many parameters such as water depth, water velocity, duration, and extent of the flood; however, the most important and commonly used are the water depth and water extent (Sole et al., 2013). These parameters can be calculated using 1-dimensional or 2-dimensional hydrodynamic models (Messner, 2007;Moel, 2012). However, in the ungauged locations, where the data necessary for detailed modeling are not available, or the resources and the time are limited, more simplified methods are needed. ...
... d) Flood probability (for conversion of event losses and damages into annual average losses and damages) e) Level of aggregation of data required. (Messner, et al., 2007) Figure 9 Framework for Calculation of Tangible Losses; Source: (Messner, et al., 2007) ...
Infrastructure development invariably interferes with the nature and it is a perpetual endeavour to draw a balance between the benefits of the infrastructure and the impacts they would have on the natural environment. A step further, the efforts are underway to reverse the impacts that developments make and it marks the beginning of new paradigm in infrastructure development. Even though the perceptible change may be far from a reality beyond scientific evaluations, it has created a dialogue around the sensitivities of nature wherein focus is on the impacts that such development cause. As a consequence of disturbance to the nature, human interventions as developments would always be at risk. The discussion presented in the book is aimed create a comprehension of vulnerabilities that exist and relate these to various aspects of development.
The challenge for infrastructure development is to mitigate against the probable vulnerabilities by way of specific measures, including those related to reduction in potential hazard itself. Indeed, such measures are possible for impact-neutral development but the question is what would be the economic impact? While infrastructure development is the need of the civilized society to survive, the sustainability on economic aspects cannot be overlooked.
This calls for an approach wherein nature versus development paradox is balanced and priorities are established. In this respect, it is important that the critical infrastructure is identified which has planned resilience against the vulnerabilities to the extent that benefits of mitigation measures outweigh the consequences in a probabilistic occurrence of an event.
In the recent times, it is also observed that the conventional outlook of the natural risks, referred to as disaster risks, is undergoing a definite change. Due to variety of reasons, including those related to climate change, occurrence of highly irregular weather events has rendered risk mitigation approach far more complex. The extreme weather events have further complicated the resilience building process with an added layer of uncertainty. Thus, it now becomes necessary to focus on critical infrastructure so that the crippling effect on the lives and livelihoods of citizens is contained. A large number of such extreme weather events, as presented in this book, validate this concern.
... All socioeconomic sectors face severe damages globally due to riverine flooding. Globally, floods caused more than 20,000 casualties directly and affect more than 1.4 million people every year (Howe and White 2002;Messner et al. 2007). As riverine flooding is most one of the most dangerous disaster it also needs huge scale management to minimize its effects. ...
Floods are the most frequent and most distractive natural disaster around the globe. Pakistan is facing frequent flooding since 1929 and floods in the Indus river basin cost more than 7000 lives and caused mighty changes in land use and land covers (LULC) since 1947. District Layyah hit by flood on August 1, 2010. Landsat ETM+ with 30 m spatial resolution was utilized to investigate the LULC changes in district Layyah for the 2010 flood. It was revealed water area increased 8.05% from July 3 (379.13 km2) to August 20 (656.02 km2) in district Layyah. Vegetation cover increased from 1149.62 km2 on July 3 to 1842.23 km2 on August 20 in district Layyah and showed a 20.13% increment. Barren/built-up area showed a decrement of 28.18% from 1911.72 km2 in pre-flood analysis to 941.90 km2 in the post-flood analysis. Total 15 union councils (UC) of district Layyah were affected by flood from which 10 lies in tehsil Layyah and 5 belongs to tehsil Karor Lal Esan. Flood affects 177 settlements in district Layyah from which 156 belong to tehsil Layyah and 21 were from tehsil Karor Lal Esan. These results suggest that the impacts of the flood on LULC need more attention to cope with the challenge of frequent flooding and impacts in Pakistan.Graphic abstract
... The International Disaster Database reported that the average annual global cost of flood damage is approximately US$90 billion. Natural disasters in general and floods in particular, make developing countries particularly vulnerable because their responsiveness is much lower than that of developed countries (Messner et al., 2007;Nur and Shrestha, 2007;Banerjee, 2010;Andrade et al., 2018;Nkwunonwo et al., 2020). Figure 1 presents the number of natural disasters worldwide during the period of 1970-2019, where extreme weather and floods are dominant. ...
In developing countries in general and in Vietnam in particular, flood induced economic loss of agriculture is a serious concern since the livelihood of large populations depends on agricultural production. The objective of this study was to examine if climate change would exacerbate flood damage to agricultural production with a case study of rice production in Huong Son District of Ha Tinh Province, North-central Vietnam. The study applied a modeling approach for the prediction. Extreme precipitation and its return periods were calculated by the Generalized Extreme Value distribution method using historical daily observations and output of the MRI-CGCM3 climate model. The projected extreme precipitation data was then employed as an input of the Mike Flood model for flood modeling. Finally, an integrated approach employing flood depth and duration and crop calendar was used for the prediction of potential economic loss of rice production. Results of the study show that in comparison with the baseline period, an increase of 49.14% in the intensity of extreme precipitation was expected, while the frequency would increase 5 times by 2050s. As a result, the seriousness of floods would increase under climate change impacts as they would become more intensified, deeper and longer, and consequently the economic loss of rice production would increase significantly. While the level of peak flow was projected to rise nearly 1 m, leading the area of rice inundated to increase by 12.61%, the value of damage would rise by over 21% by 2050s compared to the baseline period. The findings of the present study are useful for long-term agricultural and infrastructural planning in order to tackle potential flooding threats to agricultural production under climate change impacts.
... The data used in this method is usually from field surveys and this method is often used by insurance adjusters (e.g. Messner, 2007). In addition, field studies can provide the data needed to develop numerical fragility curves or damage curves that relate inundation characteristics to the probability of exceeding a certain predefined level of damage were also developed by van de Lindt and Taggart using an assembly-based vulnerability function that accounts for the variability in construction quality and flood depth and flood duration resistance for a specific residential building (van de Lindt and Taggart, 2009 (Nadal, Zapata, Pagán, López, and Agudelo, 2009). ...
Hurricanes are devastating natural hazards that often cause damage to coastal and in-land communities as a result of their loadings which include storm surge, waves, wind, and rainfall and riverine flooding, often in combination. Modeling these hazards individually and their effects on buildings is a complex process in that each loading component within the hazard behaves differently affecting either the building envelope, the structural system, or the interior contents. For coastal communities, realistic modeling of hurricane effects requires a multi-hazard approach that considers the combined effects of wind, surge, and waves. Previous studies have focused primarily on modeling these hazards individually with less focus on the multi-hazard impact on the whole building system made up of the combination of structure and its interior contents. For inland communities, high-resolution hydrologic and hydrodynamic models are required to develop high-fidelity flood hazard maps that account for the different hazard characteristics (e.g., flood depth, velocity, duration, etc.). The current flood damage assessment standards are still using stage-damage functions to account for flood damage to buildings. These functions include inherent uncertainties in the damage assessment with significant limitations on their applications. Additionally, the analysis resolution used in these previous studies did not allow hurricane risk assessment through at the building component level (e.g., interior content, structural, and non-structural components).
To address these research gaps, a high-resolution flood risk model was developed for inland communities using robust probabilistic flood fragility functions developed for a portfolio of 15 building archetypes that can model the flood vulnerability at the community-level. For coastal communities, a regional-level multi-hazard hurricane risk analysis methodology is proposed to account for the combined impacts of wind-surge-wave loadings driven by hurricanes for both the building system and its interior contents. Fragility functions are used to describe building vulnerability to the multiple loadings driven by hurricanes, and a new convolutional vulnerability approach was developed to combine wind and wave/surge fragilities. The models developed in this dissertation were included in an open-source Interdependent Networked Community Resilience Modeling Environment (IN-CORE) to allow researchers/users to systematically use these models in different types of engineering, social, and economic analyses. The analysis resolution used in the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability models allowed investigation of different levels of mitigation measures including component-, building-, and community-level mitigation strategies.
The proposed hurricane risk models for coastal and in-land communities were then applied to a number of case studies to demonstrate the ability of the developed methods to predict damage at the building level across a large spatial domain of small and large communities. The main contribution of these efforts is the development of generalized fragility-based flood vulnerability functions that were applied to a suit of building archetypes and are extendable to be used for other buildings/facilities. These fragilities were then combined with another suite of existing wind fragilities and other storm surge-wave fragility functions to account for the impact of the hurricane-induced hazards on coastal communities. These models enable a better understanding of the damages caused by hurricanes for coastal and in-land communities, thereby setting initial post-impact conditions for community resilience assessment and investigation of recovery policy alternatives.
... The study described how damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local conditions, such as urban and rural locations and the use of certain building materials, and can be used to guide assessments in countries where no damage models are currently available. In the same year, Messner et al. (2007) applied different methodologies to the assessment of the socioeconomic costs of different flood damage types and provided advice on which approach to adopt. Later, Kreibich et al. (2009) investigated flood damage by using data on the depth and velocity of the floodwaters in the Elbe Basin in Germany in 2002. ...
The aim of this study was to conduct flood analysis with digital modeling systems and estimate the total flood damage in a built-up area. The Ceviz Stream basin, which is located in Unye (Ordu) district in the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey, was selected as the study area. A 1D/2D coupled flood modeling software MIKE FLOOD was used in flood analysis. According to the modeling results, water depth and velocity maps are produced for maximum Q 50 , Q 100 , Q 500 and Q 1000 discharge scenarios in the most downstream section of the Ceviz Stream. At the projected Q 50, Q 100 , Q 500 and Q 1000 maximum flow rates, approximately 9.75%, 23.0%, 30.0% and 32.25% of that section of the study area were estimated to be negatively affected by floodwaters. In order to examine the financial magnitude of the effects of flooding, the Huizinga, van Eck and Kok, ICBR and Pistrika and Jonkman damage estimation methodologies were applied, with the highest financial costs estimated with the Pistrika and Jonkman method.
... absolute damage) (Penning-Rowsell et al. 2003), or (b) proportion of damage as a percentage, or ratio of "cost to repair/cost to replace" (i.e. relative loss) (Messner et al. 2007). Damage curves are derived using empirical or synthetic data collection methods and post-hoc analysis. ...
Disaster risk managers are shifting from hazard-centric identification of asset exposure, to quantitative risk assessments based on an understanding of asset vulnerability to impacts. For flood hazard management this shift is support by empirical data detailing the damage reponse of asset typologies when exposed to varying flood hazard intensities. This data is rarely available to reserchers therefore, developing this understanding requires its post-event collection following flood events. This study presents a survey methodology applied to five flood events in New Zealand to develop an empirical residential building damage database for post-hoc vulnerability analysis. Damage data collected is described for building and component attribute susceptibility to damage from exposure to flood inundation depths. Quantity survey guidelines were used during post-hoc analysis to convert observed component damage ratios to asset-level damage ratios. We observe for four strucutral and non-structural building components that internal finishes and service components contributed the most to asset-level damage ratios up to 1.5 m above building floor levels. These detailed component observations coupled with damage ratio estimates for residential building typologies can inform future post-hoc empirical or synthetic methods to develop relative damage curves.
... The existing literature identifies two main types of impacts due to flooding on transportation networks and their associated costs: 1) tangible and intangible impacts (Hammond et al., 2015), 2) direct and indirect impacts (Messner, 2007). In general, tangible impacts are those that can be readily quantified in monetary terms (Smith, 1999) including physical destruction of transportation infrastructures such as roads and bridges. ...
Transportation networks underpin socioeconomic development by enabling the movement of goods and people. However, despite their frequency, little is known about how floods disrupt transportation systems in developing country cities. We collect an innovative dual-condition transit feed specification dataset, and combine it with a travel survey and high-resolution flood maps to examine how regular floods in Kinshasa impact transport services, job accessibility, and the associated economic opportunity costs from travel delays. Our results show that flood disruptions cause increases in public transit headways, transit rerouting, decreases in travel speeds, which translate into travel delays and loss of job accessibility. This induces substantial economic costs to local commuters – about $1.2 million daily – and hinders the establishment of an integrated citywide labor market. In addition, we reveal sizeable socio-spatial heterogeneities, with clusters of low-income residents incurring a large share of the travel delays and identify critical network segments that should be prioritized for resilience interventions.
... An understanding of flood vulnerability typically requires knowledge of the possible impacts of flooding. There is an extensive literature on flood damage or impact assessment (Messner et al. 2007;Merz et al. 2010;Hammond et al. 2015). Flooding has the potential to cause harm in many different ways, and these impacts can be considered as consisting of physical, social, institutional, economic, and environmental dimensions. ...
The present paper discusses a novel approach for flood risk assessment and mitigation in areas with cultural heritage. The ambition of the present paper is to provide a ‘road map’ of the holistic way of working towards climate change adaptation which was introduced in some earlier publications of authors. It is designed to provide the reader with some basic ideas of the holistic view of flood risk, its practicalities and supporting frameworks for implementation. The work was undertaken in Ayutthaya heritage site in Thailand. The approach combined qualitative and quantitative data and methods. The qualitative part of analysis involved a more active role of stakeholders whereas the quantitative part was based on the use of numerical models and engineering principles. Based on the results obtained, this paper argues that perceptions of flood hazard and flood risk (i.e., qualitative part of analysis) yield a richer understanding of the problems and should be incorporated into the engineering analysis (i.e., quantitative part of analysis) to achieve more effective climate change adaptation and flood risk mitigation. Several benefits can be achieved applying the approach advocated in this paper. First, the combination of qualitative and quantitative data and methods opens up new views for risk analysis and selection of measures. Second, since it is based on a more active stakeholder participation the potential for success of this novel approach should be higher than any of the traditional approaches. Finally, design of measures can generate more favourable alternative as it employs a combination of measures that can deliver multiple benefits to stakeholders.
... Hundreds of flood risk models have been developed to estimate various flood damage types, with most focusing on direct monetary damage (Gerl et al., 2016;Merz et al., 2010). Various somewhat-overlapping frameworks are presented in the literature to categorize these flood risk models (Gerl et al., 2016;Merz et al., 2010;Messner, 2007), which add to more classical categories like agent-based models (ABM) (Gordon & Yiannakoulias, 2017), and system dynamics models (Di Baldassarre et al., 2015). Most of these models are spatial, and they can be further classified as top-down when constructed from spatially aggregated units or bottom-up and object-based when formulated around individual at-risk elements (e.g., buildings; Falter et al., 2016). ...
After a century of semi-restricted floodplain development, Southern Alberta, Canada, was struck by the devastating 2013 Flood. Aging infrastructure and limited property-level floodproofing likely contributed to the $4-6 billion (CAD) losses. Following this catastrophe, Alberta has seen a revival in flood management, largely focused on structural protections. However, concurrent with the recent structural work was a 100,000+ increase in Calgary's population in the five years following the flood, leading to further densification of high-hazard areas. This study implements the novel Stochastic Object-based Flood damage Dynamic Assessment (SOFDA) model framework to quantify the progression of the direct-damage flood risk in a mature urban neighbourhood after the 2013 Flood. Five years of remote-sensing data, property assessment records, and inundation simulations following the flood are used to construct the model. Results show that in these five years, vulnerability trends (like densification) have increased flood risk by 4%; however, recent structural mitigation projects have reduced overall flood risk by 47% for this case study. These results demonstrate that the flood management revival in Southern Alberta has largely been successful at reducing flood risk; however, the gains are under threat from continued development and densification absent additional floodproofing regulations.
... The concept of the return period is crucial to the analysis of extreme climatic events and implementation of early actions, it refers to the unconditional waiting time until an exceedance event (Messner et al., 2007;Penning-Rowsell et al., 2010;Ward & Moel, 2011;Read & Vogel, 2015). As such, the choice of extreme events was derived based on return period. ...
Floods continue to be the most devastating natural disasters, whose frequency and intensity are increasing due to climate change. Extreme floods have posed significant risks to most parts of Kenya making it one of the most flood-prone country in the world. As such, disaster
resilience projects are important to reduce the impacts of extreme flood events to vulnerable communities. The flood risk analysis approach aims to provide essential information for formulation of disaster prevention policies and decision-making processes for disaster risk reduction.
... Both functions can be integrated into natural hazard impact and loss modelling software such as 'RiskScape' (Schmidt et al. 2011). The damage functions relating flood inundation depth to building damage ratio are most commonly used for estimating future potential flood impact or loss (Messner et al. 2007). ...
On December 13th 2012 Tropical Cyclone Evan generated a period of extreme rainfall that caused wide spread flooding within the Vaisigano River catchment, Apia. In the aftermath, a reconnaissance team of National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research scientists were accompanied by staff of the Water Resource Division of The Samoan Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment to conduct a post-disaster survey of flood impacts on buildings. The purpose of this survey was to collect empirical data for use in the development of flood damage functions for Samoa buildings.
Over a three day period, 139 flood damaged buildings were surveyed in the villages of Vaisigano, Lelata, Maagao and Maagiagi. Hazard exposure, structural and non-structural attributes and impacts in the form of building damage, building contents damage, human displacement, and functional downtime were assessed for each building. From the survey results, nine building classes were identified based on construction material and use.
For each building class a damage curve was ‘fitted’ to the empirical data and damage functions derived that represent the relationship between flood inundation depth above building floor level and building damage ratio. These functions are consistent with international observations whereby construction material is an important factor influencing a buildings vulnerability to damage from flood inundation. Similar damage functions were also derived for estimating contents damage in residential, commercial and industrial buildings.
Flood hazard exposure parameters other than inundation depth such as flow velocity or debris impact were not considered in the development of flood damage functions for buildings due to the paucity of empirical data. Building damage ratios were further used to derive functions for human displacement, and functional downtime. The functions presented in this report are to provide ‘first order’ damage curves for use in future flood impact and loss modelling both in Samoa and other South Pacific Islands.
... The existing literature identifies two main types of impacts due to flooding on transportation networks and their associated costs: 1) tangible and intangible impacts (Hammond et al., 2015), 2) direct and indirect impacts (Messner, 2007). In general, tangible impact are those that can be readily quantified in monetary terms (D. ...
Transportation networks underpin socioeconomic development by enabling the movement of goods and people. However, little is known about how flooding disrupts transportation systems in urban areas in developing country cities, despite these natural disasters occurring frequently. This study documents the channels through which regular flooding in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, impacts transport services, commuters' ability to reach their jobs, and the associated economic opportunity costs from travel delays. This assessment is based on transit feed specification data sets collected specifically for this analysis under normal and flooded conditions. These data sets were combined with travel survey data containing travelers' socioeconomic attributes and trip parameters, as well as high-resolution flood maps. The results show that (1) flood disruptions cause increases in public transit headways and transit re-routing, decreases in travel speeds, and thus travel time delays, which translate into substantial economic costs to local commuters; (2) accessibility to jobs decreases under flooded conditions, hindering the establishment of an integrated citywide labor market; (3) there are spatial clusters where some of the poorest commuters experience among the highest travel delays, highlighting socio-spatial equity aspects of floods; (4) certain road segments are critical for the transport network and should be prioritized for resilience measures; and (5) the estimated daily cost of flood disruption to commuters’ trips in Kinshasa is $1,166,000. The findings of this assessment provide disaster mitigation guidance to the Office des Voiries et Drainage under the Ministry of Infrastructure, as well as strategic investment recommendations to the Ministry of Housing and Planning.
... Infine, alcuni modelli possono tenere conto, in modo esplicito o implicito, dell'interazione tra il deflusso superficiale "incontrollato" e la rete di drenaggio urbana (superficiale o sotterranea). Per l'implementazione di tali modelli esistono una gran quantità di codici, disponibili in modalità open source o dietro acquisto di licenza (Rossman et al., 1981, Messner et al. 2007, Leandro et al. 2011, DHI 2012, Razavi et al. 2012, Henonin et al. 2013, XP-Solutions 2014, Zhang & Pan 2014, Innovyze 2015, Bermudez et al. 2017, Deltares 2017, Martins et al. 2017, Martins et al. 2018. ...
Piene e allagamenti rappresentano uno dei fattori di rischio meteo‐indotto più complessi
da analizzare nelle aree urbane, a causa da un lato delle elevate esposizioni, in termini di
cittadinanza, edifici, infrastrutture e servizi, e dall’altro lato a causa delle complessità e incertezze inevitabilmente insite nella modellazione dei processi fisici in atto. Attualmente esistono una varietà di modelli, codici e software che consentono di analizzare i fenomeni di allagamento, con i diversi fini di previsione tempestiva, mappatura delle aree a rischio, progettazione di misure di adattamento. Tuttavia, tali modelli pongono una serie di difficoltà legate alla qualità e quantità dei dati richiesti in input, alla varietà, versatilità e affidabilità dei possibili output, alle diverse scale spaziali e temporali di interesse, alla generale mancanza di dati adeguati alla validazione.
In questo contesto, modelli eccessivamente sofisticati potrebbero risultare di difficile
utilizzo per aree vaste soprattutto quando si prevede di effettuare numerose simulazioni, come accade per le analisi di scenario. In questo caso, infatti, vengono tipicamente eseguite un grande numero di simulazioni perturbando uno o più parametri, quali ad esempio le caratteristiche dell’evento piovoso, al fine di conoscere la risposta del sistema a differenti input o per diverse configurazioni fisiche. Inoltre, i fenomeni di allagamento urbano sono resi ancor più complessi in un contesto di cambiamento climatico, a causa dell’aggiuntiva incertezza legata alla disponibilità di molteplici proiezioni climatiche e alle difficoltà pratiche e concettuali insite nel loro utilizzo alla scala locale.
Nella presente memoria, si propone un approccio per la modellazione delle piene urbane in un’area studio localizzata all’interno della Città di Napoli, con lo scopo di trarre informazioni circa la resilienza del sistema rispetto a possibili variazioni della pioggia, come ad esempio quelle che potrebbero essere causate dal cambiamento climatico. Tale lavoro si fonda su una metodologia innovativa per la quantificazione dell’effetto del cambiamento climatico alla scala locale, con particolare focus sull’aggiornamento delle curve Intensità‐Durata‐Frequenza e sulla necessità di conservare le informazioni legate all’incertezza derivante dall’uso di 19 diversi modelli climatici, alla massima risoluzione disponibile di circa 12 km, forniti dall’iniziativa EUROCORDEX. Le simulazioni di allagamento sono state condotte mediante il software CADDIES CAFlood che ha la possibilità di tener conto di piogge e caratteristiche dei suoli spazialmente e temporalmente distribuite. L’area pilota (di ampiezza pari a 150 ha e comprendente un importante edificio strategico in passato soggetto a problemi di allagamento) è stata modellata in ambiente CAFlood come un grigliato con risoluzione di 1m, in cui a ciascuna cella è assegnato un valore di quota (a mezzo del DEM disponibile per l’area, basato su dati Lidar), di scabrezza superficiale e di capacità di infiltrazione (entrambi desunti dall’analisi delle coperture e degli usi del suolo forniti dalla Carta Tecnica Regionale). CAFlood non è in grado di simulare direttamente la presenza di una rete di drenaggio superficiale o profonda, ma può tenerne debitamente conto mediante incrementi localizzati di capacità di infiltrazione. Tuttavia, nel caso studio si è deciso di non tenerne conto, dal momento che non è presente nell’area una rete fognaria particolarmente
sviluppata. I principali risultati del modello sono mappe ad alta risoluzione di tiranti
idrici e velocità di deflusso con un time step deciso dall’utente, che possono essere adoperate per trarre informazioni su volumi di deflusso ed estensione delle aree allagate. Tali risultati possono essere adoperati con vari scopi e per varie applicazioni, quali ad esempio la redazione di mappe di pericolosità, analisi di fattibilità e design semplificato di misure di adattamento. Nella presente memoria sono state eseguite analisi di scenario, in un primo caso ipotizzando una pioggia costante e facendo variare il tempo di ritorno, in un secondo caso mantenendo costanti durata e tempo di ritorno e facendo variare la forma del pluviogramma. I risultati mostrano che l’area studio presenta una resilienza non elevata, poiché ad un incremento unitario di intensità di pioggia corrisponde un incremento amplificato di diverse unità nel volume di deflusso e, più in generale, nella criticità delle condizioni di allagamento. Analisi successive verranno condotte perturbando il sistema mediante l’introduzione di misure di adattamento, al fine di trarre informazioni circa una loro fattibilità ed efficacia nell’incrementare la resilienza dell’area rispetto al cambiamento climatico.
... The benefit-cost ratio can be considered as the most common indicator that compares the investments and the benefits. The decision-making process can have high confidence in this indicator due to its ability to provide the gain in terms of investment percentage [48]. An example of the popularity of this indicator is that the flood defense programs in the United Kingdom must have a BC ratio of more than 8 to receive public funding [25]. ...
All over the world, probability-based flood protection designs are the ones most commonly used. Different return-period design floods are standard criteria for designing structural measures. Recently, risk-based flood management has received a significant appraisal, but the fixed return period is still the de facto standard for flood management designs due to the absence of a robust framework for risk-based flood management. The objective of this paper is to discuss the economics and criteria of project appraisal, as well as to recommend the most suitable approach for a risk-based project feasibility evaluation. When it comes to flood management, decision-makers, who are generally politicians, have to prioritize the allocation of resources to different civic welfare projects. This research provides a connection between engineering, economics, and management. Taking account of socioeconomic and environmental constraints, several measures can be employed in a floodplain. The Kaldor-Hicks compensation principle provides the basis for a risk-based feasibility analysis. Floods should be managed in a way that reduces the damage from minimum investments to ensure maximum output from floodplain land use. Specifically, marginal losses due to flood damage and the expense of flood management must be minimized. This point of minimum expenses is known as the "optimum risk point" or "optimal state". This optimal state can be estimated using a risk-based assessment. Internal rate of return, net present value, and benefit-cost ratio are indicators that describe the feasibility of a project. However, considering expected annual damage is strongly recommended for flood management to ensure a simultaneous envisage of the performance of land-use practices and flood measures. Flood management ratios can be used to describe the current ratio of expected annual damage to the expected annual damage at the optimal risk point. Further development of the approach may replace probability-based standards at the national level.
... Where people and value currently exist in an under-threat region is known as exposure. Susceptibility is generally defined as the relative loss function [56,57]. The ability to recognize the losses from the hazard is susceptibility. ...
Modern-day flood management has evolved into a variety of flood management alternatives. The selection of appropriate flood measures is crucial under a variety of flood management practices, approaches, and assessment criteria. Many leading countries appraise the significance of risk-based flood management, but the fixed return period is still the de facto standard of flood management practices. Several measures, approaches, and design criteria have been developed over time. Understanding their role, significance, and correlation toward risk-based flood management is crucial for integrating them into a plan for a floodplain. The direct impacts of a flood are caused by direct contact with the flood, while indirect impacts occur as a result of the interruptions and disruptions of the socio-economical aspects. To proceed with a risk-based flood management approach, the fundamental requirement is to understand the risk dynamics of a floodplain and to identify the principal parameter that should primarily be addressed so as to reduce the risk. Risk is a potential loss that may arise from a hazard. On the one hand, exposure and susceptibility of the vulnerable system, and on the other, the intensity and probability of the hazard, are the parameters that can be used to quantitatively determine risk. The selection of suitable measures for a flood management scheme requires a firm apprehension of the risk mechanism. Under socioeconomic and environmental constraints, several measures can be employed at the catchments, channels, and floodplains. The effectiveness of flood measures depends on the floodplain characteristics and supporting measures.
Nowadays, wildfires have become a common natural disaster as a result of climate change, closely related to uncontrolled anthropogenic interventions, causing multiple socio-economic impacts on modern economies. In Greece, the remarkable extent of burned rural areas caused by wildfires has a significant economic impact in terms of farms and a national perspective. The present research aims to assess the impacts of wildfire on the agricultural sector on the basis of farmers’ perception with the tool of a questionnaire for the wildfire in Thassos island in north Greece recorded in 2016, and to unveil potential practices adopted for wildfire mitigation or prevention. On the basis of logit methodology, three models were estimated to identify and quantify the determinants of three dependent variables, namely, Burned cultivation replacement, Annual costs for fire mitigation, and Future actions-wait for re-sprouting for grafting. The findings of our analysis confirmed that the majority of farmers cannot assess the extent of the disaster, they are not willing to undertake further actions regarding the future of their burned cultivations, and they are not willing to undertake any further costs. Disappointment and resignation is confirmed and functions as an impediment to initiatives for present and future actions, especially for those who practice agriculture as a secondary source of income. The scientific value of the objective and subjective economic assessment stands on the provision of a useful tool in decision-making to conserve and improve rural life, food production and regional economic development.
Earthen masonry is a historic construction technique widespread in the river Ebro basin (Spain). These masonry walls are made of small earthen blocks, such as adobes [1]. Throughout history frequent floods of the river Ebro have threatened the integrity of earthen masonry construction. Due to climate change, this region is undergoing an increase in the severity and frequency of flood events, causing considerable losses to architectural heritage [2]. According to various studies, earth as a building material has hygroscopic characteristics which influence its resistance to water [3]. The devastating effects of flood events on historic structures due to changes in the interaction between subsoil and foundations include damage to the superstructure [4]. This research proposes a flood risk assessment methodology following a component-based modelling framework. The susceptibility to floods of the building components is evaluated, considering the material, structural and morphological characteristics [5]. The conservation state of the assets is also considered, analysing material weathering, damage, and crack patterns. The individual parameters involved in the assessment have been weighted in order to ensure significant results. The methodology has been applied to a group of municipalities located in the floodplain of the middle course of the river Ebro, and this research aims to carry out a flood risk assessment of adobe buildings on a local scale. Different risk levels have been found depending on the specific characteristics and conservation state of individual assets. The correlation between structural damage and flood effects is examined to identify the origin of damage and recurring crack patterns. Finally, mitigation strategies are discussed in relation to the importance of the conservation of architectural heritage and vernacular construction traditions.KeywordsFloodsRisk AssessmentEarthen ArchitectureAdobeVernacular Heritage
The objective of this chapter is to apply the FFA to four cases. The first is the single-region version of the model applied to a real past event: the 2007 floods in Yorkshire and the Humber, UK. The second case is an application of the same model to an event that affected several regions within Europe. The third constitutes an application to quantify potential benefits of risk management strategies, considered as avoided costs due to the implementation of blue-green infrastructure in the City of Newcastle, UK. The fourth and last case study is the application of the multiregional model to a projected scenario of development and climate change for the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. This last case represents the main model application of the book.
Floods are frequent natural hazards, triggering significant negative consequences for the economy every year. Their impact is expected to increase in the near future due to socioeconomic development and climate change. In order to minimize the probability and magnitude of expected economic losses and compensation costs, it is essential that flood risk managers are properly informed about potential damage related to hazard features and exposure. In this paper, a flood damage estimation method was proposed for the assessment of flood risk in the Drammen River basin by using a hydraulic model, GIS, and a flood loss estimation model. Hazard variables such as flood depth, flood extent, and flood velocity were computed for the current and future climatic scenarios using the hydraulic model for flood damage assessment. To visualize the flood extent, velocity, depth, and their impact, the results of modelling are illustrated in the form of flood inundation maps produced in GIS. A flood loss estimate included buildings and other infrastructure that are major exposures in flood-prone areas. The flood damage model is formulated based on stage-damage relationships between different flood depths and land-use categories. It calculates the economic loss related to different land-use features based on the simulated flood parameter obtained from the hydraulic model from 100-to 1000-year return periods. For the case study, the results show that the highest proportion of the total damage in each repetition interval (approximately 90-92%) is expected to occur in buildings. In addition, results showed that the effects of climate change will raise the total damage from floods by 20.26%.
In this study, we focused on a combined basin-scale and decentralized approach (municipalities) to riverine flood risk mapping and assessment in the Gidra River Basin (Slovakia). The methodology applies a direct spatial and probabilistic relation among the physical processes of riverine flooding with a given vulnerability. First, we calculated the design peak discharges using a rainfall generation model and rainfall-runoff model – in particular, the Stochastic Rainfall Generator (STORAGE) and the Continuous Simulation Model for Small and Ungauged Basins (COSMO4SUB). After that, we used the obtained flood scenarios for hydraulic modelling with the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The modelled flood extent, flow depth, and flow velocity were considered hazard indicators. The results were expressed in terms of a flood hazard index (FHI), flood vulnerability index (FVI), and flood risk index (FRI): the highest values were obtained for municipalities located in the northern-central part of the investigated area.
After a century of semi‐restricted floodplain development, Southern Alberta, Canada, was struck by the devastating 2013 Flood. Aging infrastructure and limited property‐level floodproofing likely contributed to the $4–6 billion (CAD) losses. Following this catastrophe, Alberta has seen a revival in flood management, largely focused on structural protections. However, concurrent with the recent structural work was a 100,000+ increase in Calgary's population in the 5 years following the flood, leading to further densification of high‐hazard areas. This study implements the novel Stochastic Object‐based Flood damage Dynamic Assessment (SOFDA) model framework to quantify the progression of the direct‐damage flood risk in a mature urban neighborhood after the 2013 Flood. Five years of remote‐sensing data, property assessment records, and inundation simulations following the flood are used to construct the model. Results show that in these 5 years, vulnerability trends (like densification) have increased flood risk by 4%; however, recent structural mitigation projects have reduced overall flood risk by 47% for this case study. These results demonstrate that the flood management revival in Southern Alberta has largely been successful at reducing flood risk; however, the gains are under threat from continued development and densification absent additional floodproofing regulations.
Land-use changes in the urban expansion process often modify the water cycle, aggravating floods and exposing more people and assets to risks. City growth may induce imbalances in the interaction of the natural and built environment, mainly because natural constraints are not understood and respected. Within this context, resilience emerges as a component of the risk assessment that opposes vulnerability. In general terms, resilience is characterized by the resistance ability of an exposed system to sustain its function, and the ability to recover from difficult adverse situations quickly. Flood resilient cities can be built by addressing and fostering the relationship among pluvial waters, buildings and urban spaces, using nature-based solutions and blue-green infrastructure. The integration of rainwater and drainage systems in the urban landscape harmoniously and valuing their presence as an element of revitalization for the urban space while mitigating flood problems are steps towards evolving to the concept of water sensitive and resilient cities.KeywordsFlood resilienceUrban floodsFlood riskResistanceRecovery capacity
Adaptation to climate change receives little if any attention during the phase of planning and appraisal of investments into infrastructure at the Member State and European level. Recently, efforts have been made to assist project planners with incorporating considerations of adaptation into their workflow, but no guidelines yet address adaptation projects in their own right.
Because adaptation projects face specific challenges, such as the necessity of dealing with large uncertainties, we endeavoured in this Deliverable of ECONADAPT to fill this gap and produce guidelines tailored to the appraisal of adaptation projects.
To enable the identification of the key steps and challenges in the appraisal, we conducted two case studies, appraising adaptation projects in the Vltava river, Czech Republic, and in Bilbao, Spain. From these we distilled the lessons learned into the guidelines here presented, which aim to address practitioners, and are therefore as straightforward and free of technical jargon as possible.
The guidelines are structured in 22 steps for the practitioner to follow, divided in the areas of: context analysis; hazard assessment; impact assessment; adaptation; economic assessment; and decision-making with consideration of stakeholders.
Each step is explained in a small section of typically half to two pages, containing: a brief
overview of the problem; a display of the methods available to tackle it; a brief account of what was done in the ECONADAPT case studies, and what can be learned from them;
recommendations about good practices.
In addition, we have compiled summary tables of the steps, aimed to provide: 1) an impression at a glance of all that needs to be accomplished in the adaptation appraisal; 2) a schematic map with the minimal amount of information that the practitioner should keep in mind at any moment.
Main finding 1: the appraisal, and wider evaluation and of the possible options for adaptation is by its own nature a comprehensive and multidisciplinary exercise. The practitioner should count on (access to) a range of expertise to carry out the exercise.
Main finding 2: it is possible to summarize the essential aspects of the appraisal in a set of steps that should be carefully considered and at least inspire the practice.
Understanding and modelling pluvial flood patterns is pivotal for the estimation of flood impacts in urban areas, especially in a climate change perspective. However, urban flood modelling under climate change conditions poses several challenges. On one hand, the identification and collection of climate change data suitable for flood-related evaluations requires consistent computational and scientific effort. On the other hand, large difficulties can arise in the reproduction of the rainfall-runoff transformation process in cases when only little information about the subsurface processes is known. In this perspective, a simplified approach is proposed to address the challenges regarding the quantitative estimation of climate change effects on urban flooding for real case applications. The approach is defined as “bottom-up” because climate change information is not included in flood modelling, but it is only invoked for the interpretation of results. In other words, the challenge faced in this work is the development of a modelling strategy that is expeditious, because it does not require flood simulations for future rainfall scenarios, but only under current climate conditions, thus reducing the overall computational effort; and it is flexible, because results can be easily updated once new climate change data, scenarios or methods become available, without the need of additional flood simulations. To simulate real case applications, the approach is tested for a scenario analysis, where different return periods and hyetograph shapes are used as input for urban inundation modelling in Naples, Italy. The approach can support public and private stakeholders, such as land administrators and water systems managers; moreover, it represents a valuable and effective basis for climate change risk communication strategies.
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A transportation network is a critical infrastructure system that serves everyday life, provides the backbone for economy, and is critical to national safety. Holistic design of such a system is required to ensure smooth operation under both operational and emergency conditions. However, with ever-changing climate, transportation systems are exposed to significant weather-related hazards. For example, flood events are proven to be a dominant hazard in the U.S. due to their frequency and intensity. While flood events affect state agencies by requiring direct tax-dollar investments to repair damages, they also adversely influence communities by producing substantial indirect losses. This motivates state agencies, asset owners, and planners to develop with cost-effective mitigation strategies. However, the uncertainty of flooding and the interdependency between assets within the transportation system (such as roads and bridges) and traffic users on one hand and limited budgetary resources on the other hand, challenge the design of a cost-effective risk mitigation strategy. This is exacerbated by the fact that the estimation of indirect losses associated with closures resulting from damaged assets is difficult to assess. To address such gaps, this paper develops an integrated risk assessment method that synthesizes various inputs, including hazards, geographic features, spatial distribution of assets, and traffic, to simulate the flood-induced risk to a real-life transportation system. This framework is capable of estimating actual physical infrastructure damages as well as quantitatively evaluating the indirect losses of traffic users such as traffic delays and opportunity costs closely associated with flood risk. The developed flood risk curves can be used by decision-makers to implement proper pre-event mitigation or post-event response plans.
Técnicas e procedimentos para avaliar monetáriamente as perdas por causa de chuvas intensas nas cidades.
Tidal flood implications for agricultural areas have been relatively neglected in research due to their relatively low economic values. Nevertheless, many rural coastal communities are facing these types of floods regularly, especially salt harvesters. Based on a synthetic approach using damage functions and the Geographic Information System, this study applies previous simulations from a hydrodynamic model to quantify vulnerability through flood depth and duration. A depth-duration damage function using a synthetic approach was applied to develop damage curves based on previous events. Data was collected through a questionnaire aimed at salt harvesters’ group representatives. This data was used to evaluate the direct monetary loss related to two recorded events in Cirebon, West Java: in June 2016 (Event A) and in May 2018 (Event B). Those events brought losses of about Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) 74.11 x 10⁹ (5.37%) and IDR 13.79 x 10⁹ (8.1%) for Event A and Event B respectively. This study reveals the different vulnerability levels of the events, which represent different production stages in salt harvesting. This paper presents methods and information to support risk management in salt harvesting, including prioritizing mitigation strategies.
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