Michael Christl

DG ECFIN

This paper analyzes the impact of collective minimum wages on youth employment for 14 sectors of the Austrian economy, taking into account the possibility of nonlinearity. We find that when the real index of minimum wage rises above a certain point, negative employment effects for young individuals (aged between 19 and 25 years) can be expected in...

The aim of this study is to estimate the relationship between the minimum wage and the employment rate of young individuals, taking into account potential nonlinearity. In a cross-country setup of European countries, we find a significant nonlinear relationship between the minimum wages and employment rate of young individuals. Theoretically, while...

This paper analyses the impact of literacy skills on wage differences between natives and immigrants, using Austria as a case study. We show that, for both groups, literacy skills are an important determinant of the hourly wage. In the second step, we show that differences in proficiency with respect to literacy can explain more than 30% of the tot...

We analyze the gender differences in skills, tasks and skill matching of workers, and the impact of these factors on the gender wage gap, using the Survey of Adult Skills, a product of the OECD Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC). We show that data on these characteristics, not available in traditional data sets...

In this work, we simulate the effects of the tax autonomy of the Austrian states on the levels of public employment in each state. We show that depending on the strength of the public sector lobby, tax autonomy would require a reduction of employment in the public sector of between 25 and 35% of the current level. We also show that tax autonomy inc...

This paper analyzes the relationship between economic growth, inequality and redistribution. In a cross-country setting for 25 EU countries over the period 2007-2019, we show that market income inequality is associated with higher growth in the short run. To estimate the impact of redistribution to low-income earners, we introduce a new measure, th...

In 2022, the European Council raised the commonly known Barcelona target on childcare provisions established in2002 that, by 2010, a minimum of 33% of children below the age of three should receive early childhood educationand care with specific. The recent recommendation stipulates that by 2030 a minimum of 45% of children belowthe age of three sh...

This paper analyses the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on household disposable income and household demand in the European Union (EU) during 2020, making use of the EU microsimulation model EUROMOD and nowcasting techniques. We show evidence of heterogeneity in the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labour markets in EU Member States, with som...

We provide novel and comprehensive evidence on the net fiscal contributions of natives and migrants to the governmental budgets of EU countries. We account for income taxes and cash benefits, along with indirect taxes and in-kind benefits, which are often missing in standard datasets. We find that on average, migrants were net contributors to publi...

We analyse the different fiscal treatment of married and cohabiting couples across all EU Member States using microsimulation methods. Our article highlights important differences across EU countries’ tax–benefit systems, where seven countries show substantial bonuses for married couples and four exhibit marriage penalties. On a micro level, we fin...

Over the past decade, the Beveridge curve in the Austrian labour market has shifted significantly outward. Using detailed administrative data on job vacancies and registered unemployed persons by region and skill level, we investigate which factors have caused this shift. We find that the Beveridge curve has shifted mainly because mismatch has incr...

We provide novel and comprehensive evidence on the net fiscal contributions of natives and migrants to the governmental budgets of EU countries. We account for income taxes and cash benefits, along with indirect taxes and in-kind benefits, which are often missing in standard datasets. We find that on average, migrants were net contributors to publi...

The increasing flow of immigrants into Europe over the last decade has generated a range of considerations in the policy agenda of many receiving countries. One of the main considerations for policymakers and public opinion alike is whether immigrants contribute their ‘fair’ share to their host country's tax and welfare system. In this paper, we as...

This paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on household income in Austria, using detailed administrative labor market data, in combination with micro-simulation techniques that enable specific labor market transitions to be modeled. We find that discretionary fiscal policy measures in Austria are key to counteracting the inequality- and...

Governments face a potential trade-off between provision for the population in retirement and the support of working-age households with low income. Using EUROMOD-based microdata from 28 countries, we quantify public redistribution to pensioner- and working-age households, distinguishing also by income quartiles. In general, Northern European count...

In this paper, we use EUROMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model of the European Union, to investigate the impact of marriage-related tax-benefit instruments on the financial incentives to work of married couples. For each spouse, we estimate their individual marginal effective tax rate and net replacement rate before and after marriage. We sho...

In this paper, we investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on German household income in 2020 using a micro-level approach. We combine a microsimulation model with novel labour market transition techniques to simulate the COVID-19 shock on the German labour market. We find the consequences of the labour market shock to be highly regressive w...

This paper presents baseline results from the latest public version (I4.0+) of EUROMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the EU. We begin by briefly discussing the process of updating EUROMOD. We then present indicators for income inequality and at-risk-of-poverty using EUROMOD and discuss the main reasons for the differences between these...

This paper analyses the impact of the implementation of a child tax credit in Austria in 2018. We combine microsimulation techniques, labour supply modelling and dynamic general equilibrium modelling to make an ex‐ante evaluation of the reform, accounting also for behavioural responses of individuals. We show that although the macroeconomic effect...

This analysis makes use of economic forecasts for 2020 issued by the European Commission in Autumn 2019 and Spring 2020, and of a counterfactual under a no-policy change assumption, to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EU households´ income. Additionally, our analysis assesses the cushioning effect of discretionary fiscal policy measures...

Financial incentives affect the labour supply decisions of households. However, the impact usually varies significantly across household types. Whilst there is a substantial amount of literature on the labour supply effects of tax reforms and in-work benefits, the impact of changes in social assistance benefits has received less attention. This pap...

This paper analyses the extent to which the tax-benefit systems of the EU Member States have protected household incomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. We make use of EUROMOD, the EU tax-benefit microsimulation model based on 2018 EU-SILC data. Detailed aggregate labour market statistics combined with a novel approach to simulate transitions from wo...

The aim of this study is to analyze redistribution within the Austrian tax-benefits system. In this work, we take a comprehensive view and include not only direct taxation and cash benefits but also indirect taxes and in-kind transfers. We look at two kinds of redistribution: between households belonging to different income groups, and between gene...

We analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EU households´ income and assess the cushioning effect of discretionary policy measures taken by the EU Member States. Our assessment is based on the European Commission Spring 2020 forecasts and counterfactual scenarios under a no policychange assumption. Our analysis suggests that over the course of...

The Austrian Beveridge curve shifted in 2014, leading to the ongoing academic discussions about the reasons behind this shift. While some economists have argued that the shift was caused by a supply shock related to the labour market liberalisation during the course of the eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU), others have stated that a de...

This paper investigates the determinants of public‐sector efficiency, in particular the role of fiscal decentralization and fiscal rules. For 23 European countries over the period from 1995 to 2015, we construct a measure of public‐sector performance consisting of nine distinct indices for each area of public policy, such as administration, health...

This paper takes a closer look at the existing early retirement schemes in Austria and analyses whether early retirement imposes a financial burden on the pension system (actuarial neutrality). Additionally, we compute incentive-neutral deductions for early retirement. These deductions reflect the view of the individual, who faces option of retirin...

We comment on the work of Hanushek et al. (2015) and show that returns to skills are very heterogeneous and depend crucially on the tasks performed in the workplace, in line with the critique by Acemoglu and Autor (2011). Depending on the types of tasks performed at work as well as on occupations, returns to cognitive skills can vary between null a...

This study introduces a tax-benefit model based on administrative data for Austria (AUTAX) that can be used for the ex ante and ex post evaluation of reforms of personal income taxation and social benefits.We analyze the effects of the 2016 Austrian tax reform ex ante and concentrate on the effects on the distribution of net income and on work ince...

We estimate the classic and the dynamic variant of Okun’s law for the Austrian labor market. We find that, for recent periods, the growth rate necessary to stabilize the unemployment rate equals 2.8 percent. Moreover, we find that the rate has been growing in recent quarters due to the increasing labor force size and the effects of the crisis. The...

This paper analyzes the Austrian Beveridge curve as well as the Beveridge curves for different economic sectors in Austria over the period from 2008 onwards. We find significant outward shifts of the Beveridge curves in eight of the 21 sectors of the economy. We further analyze what factors have contributed to this change. Our results suggest that...

The additional burden borne by the payers of wage taxes through bracket creep is estimated to equal € 2.87 billion in 2015; across the period between the tax reform of 2009 and that of 2016 it would total € 10.77 billion. The tax relief provided by the tax reform of 2016 will thus overcompensate the effect of bracket creep in 2016, but not the over...