Wouter van der Wielen

Wouter van der Wielen
European Investment Bank · Department of Economics

PhD in Economics

About

18
Publications
4,212
Reads
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130
Citations
Additional affiliations
September 2016 - April 2021
European Commission
Position
  • Analyst
December 2015 - February 2016
KU Leuven
Position
  • Research Associate
October 2014 - December 2014
National Bank of Belgium
Position
  • Research Trainee
Education
September 2010 - August 2011
KU Leuven
Field of study
  • Economics

Publications

Publications (18)
Article
Full-text available
Long shunned as slow and ill timed, the response to the Covid-19 pandemic initiated a reassessment of fiscal policy as stabilisation tool. At the same time, there is ample evidence that major economic downturns produce lasting effects on real GDP in spite of active fiscal policy interventions. This paper takes a fresh look at economic scarring in 2...
Article
Long shunned as slow and often ill timed, the response to the Covid-19 pandemic initiated a reassessment of fiscal policy as stabilisation tool. At the same time, there is ample evidence that major economic downturns produce lasting effects on real GDP in spite of active fiscal policy interventions. This paper takes a fresh look at economic scarrin...
Article
We use the 2021 vintage of the EIB Investment Survey (EIBIS) which contains a detailed set of questions regarding the nature of the policy support to firms during the COVID-19 crisis. Matched with hard data on the balance sheets and Profit and Loss (P&L) statements of corporations, the survey enables to disentangle the drivers of policy allotment a...
Preprint
Full-text available
We use the 2021 vintage of the EIB Investment Survey (EIBIS) which contains a detailed set of questions regarding the nature of the policy support to firms during the COVID-19 crisis. Matched with hard data on the balance sheets and Profit and Loss (P&L) statements of corporations, the survey enables to disentangle the drivers of policy allotment a...
Article
Full-text available
This analysis makes use of economic forecasts for 2020 issued by the European Commission in Autumn 2019 and Spring 2020, and of a counterfactual under a no-policy change assumption, to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EU households´ income. Additionally, our analysis assesses the cushioning effect of discretionary fiscal policy measures...
Article
Rather than stabilising aggregate demand, discretionary fiscal policy tends to amplify cyclical fluctuations of output. The commonly accepted reasons are political economy and uncertainty. In the EU, the pro-cyclical nature of discretionary fiscal policy has also been associated with the commonly agreed fiscal rules, which, for some observers, undu...
Article
Full-text available
The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted an economic hardship unprecedented for the modern age. In this paper, we show that the health crisis and ensuing lockdown, came with an unseen shift in households’ economic sentiment. First, using a European dataset of country-level and regional internet searches, we document a substantial increase in people's bu...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Rather than stabilising aggregate demand, discretionary fiscal policy tends to amplify cyclical fluctuations of output. The commonly accepted reasons are political economy and uncertainty. In the EU, the pro-cyclical nature of discretionary fiscal policy has also been associated with the commonly agreed fiscal rules, which, for some observers, undu...
Preprint
Full-text available
We analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EU households´ income and assess the cushioning effect of discretionary policy measures taken by the EU Member States. Our assessment is based on the European Commission Spring 2020 forecasts and counterfactual scenarios under a no policychange assumption. Our analysis suggests that over the course of...
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes in the European Union between 2000 and 2016. The novelty of our approach hinges on the use of real-time estimates of discretionary fiscal adjustments. In particular, exploiting a unique database covering anticipated and unanticipated tax changes, we provide the first narrative panel estim...
Article
The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of shifts in macroeconomic forecasts on the regional budget. In particular, this paper uses a probabilistic model for the Flemish budget to determine the probability distribution of future public revenues and expenditures. Its main findings are that the overall volatility of the Flemish budget ha...
Research
Full-text available
With the recent debt crisis, the necessity of effective measures for safeguarding fiscal sustainability has become patent, leading to an intense debate. Most of the debate focuses on strengthening fiscal rules and restoring fiscal imbalances through austerity measures. In this paper, I address two issues impeding the success of these measures: macr...
Article
Full-text available
This paper assesses the impact of budgetary uncertainty on the optimum instrument for fiscal discipline. In addition to exogenous uncertainty, with respect to both the savings and damages of the public deficit, the model accommodates for externalities as a result of a multitier government structure. Hence, the model approximates fiscal discipline m...
Article
This paper assesses the impact of budgetary uncertainty on the optimum instrument for fiscal discipline. In addition to exogenous uncertainty, with respect to both the savings and damages of the public deficit, the model accommodates for externalities as a result of a multitier government structure. Hence, the model approximates fiscal discipline m...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents a review of the most significant fiscal rules policymakers can choose from. The insights from this review are then applied to the current budgetary situation of the European Union. In the European Union, the supranational Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) should provide the necessary guidance in limiting governmental borrowing by...
Article
Full-text available
Due to the 2008–09 financial crisis and ensuing economic downturn, budgetary problems are on the policymakers’ agenda once again. Fiscal deficits incurred as a result of the financial crisis and economic downturn have caused public debt to rise steeply once again. Moreover, the public debt of some EU countries was already at a high level before the...

Projects

Project (1)
Project
Quantifying the fiscal impact of heterogeneous unemployment changes to (a) provide more precise measurement of cyclical spending and (b) identify the fiscal impact of uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts through the unemployment channel.