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Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment
Abstract
This paper examines the global food security picture through 2020, using a model that incorporates 35 individual countries and regions and 17 commodities to estimate supply and demand for food. It concludes that if governments and the international community maintain current levels of commitment to agricultural growth through cost-effective investment in agricultural research, extension, irrigation and water development, human capital, and rural infrastructure, the world as a whole will not experience overwhelming pressure but food security in many developing countries, particularly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, will improve little. The paper also presents a more pessimistic scenario brought about by cuts in investment in agriculture and a more hopeful scenario based on increased investment.
... However, design and implementation of such intervention strategies require deeper and systematic investigation of the relationships among irrigation intensity, crop diversification and agricultural intensification and their implications for future groundwater dynamics. Nevertheless, in order to facilitate diversification of crops, the irrigation system should be able to respond to the changing water requirements throughout the year so that the farmers can adopt market-oriented approach and reallocate water from traditional crops to fruits and vegetables that are less water intensive [65]. However, facilitating such a shift requires making cultivation of these crops more profitable and thus increasing the opportunity costs of water used for the traditional crops. ...
... However, while combining ecologically conducive agricultural systems with traditional farming practices would be imperative, the presence of many smallholder farmers in different parts of India may limit such transition [5]. Under these circumstances, crop diversification may become a useful strategy [27,40], 7 particularly for reducing dependence on monoculture cropping [65] and its influence on environmental degradation. Furthermore, impact of crop diversification and irrigation on intensification is quite complex and ambiguous as it also depends on other factors such as crop types, seasons of cultivations, local agro-ecological conditions and policy and institutional supports. ...
While access to assured irrigation is a prerequisite for sustainable agricultural intensification, increasing use of groundwater for the same and decreasing areas under surface irrigation are expected to cause considerable hydro-ecological imbalance and hence serious concerns for sustainability. Importantly, the extent, nature, efficiency and impact of irrigation vary across regions depending on the geophysical and agro-climatic conditions, farming practices and socioeconomic setup. Nevertheless, it is suggested that appropriate crop diversification coupled with necessary policy and institutional supports can potentially reduce pressure on groundwater and make intensification in agriculture sustainable. Given this backdrop, this paper examines impact of irrigation and crop diversification on agricultural intensification and its implications for future groundwater dynamics in major Indian states. Using secondary data and applying panel data regression techniques for the period 1990–1991 to 2014–2015, the paper finds that both greater irrigation facilities and diversified crop basket increase cropping intensity. Similarly, use of more chemical fertilizers and higher yield also influence cropping intensity positively. However, rainfall variations and share of GSDP in agriculture have no significant impact. Based on the literature review and the above findings as well as using the insights from the informal interactions and random discussion carried out with the farmers and others stakeholders (e.g., researchers, community workers, extension service providers, NGO, etc.), the fuzzy cognitive models show that future policies and institutions should focus on improvement in agricultural systems and promoting surface irrigation. Besides, conservation and harvesting of rainwater, efficient functioning of the user groups, judicious use of chemical fertilizers and emphasis on cultivation of less water-intensive crops would also be crucial in this regard.
... Furthermore, a small number of predictions are disproportionally cited in the literature. The decadal reports by the FAO (Alexandratos, 1995;Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012;Bruinsma, 2003) have been cited over 1000 times each, David Tilman's food demand predictions from 2011 and 2014 have already been cited over 2000 times combined, and the IFPRI studies have been cited hundreds of times each (Rosegrant et al., 1995(Rosegrant et al., , 1999). These three sources constitute the majority of our understanding of the future of global food demand but take very different modelling approaches. ...
... Some predictive models, rather than reporting uncertainty, attempt to improve the accuracy of predictions by tweaking model outputs according to expert advice (Alexandratos, 1995;Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012;Rosegrant et al., 1995). While this approach may effectively make predictions more accurate (given the accuracy of FAO's 2010 predictions), it also makes the model outcomes impossible to reproduce, and prone to subjective biases (often unrecognised) in the consulted experts (Burgman et al., 2011). ...
Predicting future food demand is a critical step for formulating the agricultural, economic and conservation policies required to feed over 9 billion people by 2050 while doing minimal harm to the environment. However, published future food demand estimates range substantially, making it difficult to determine optimal policies. Here we present a systematic review of the food demand literature-including a meta-analysis of papers reporting average global food demand predictions-and test the effect of model complexity on predictions. We show that while estimates of future global kilocalorie demand have a broad range, they are not consistently dependent on model complexity or form. Indeed, time-series and simple income-based models often make similar predictions to integrated assessments (e.g., with expert opinions, future prices or climate influencing forecasts), despite having different underlying assumptions and mechanisms. However, reporting of model accuracy and uncertainty was uncommon, leading to difficulties in making evidence-based decisions about which forecasts to trust. We argue for improved model reporting and transparency to reduce this problem and improve the pace of development in this field.
... Around the world wheat is used as one of the main food sources to provide a large proportion of the calories and protein needed by human beings [1]. The world wheat production forecasted for 2020 varied depending on the prediction method used: 746 Mt [2], 840 Mt [3] and 1050 Mt [4]. To meet the target 2020 wheat production, the current average wheat yield of 2.7 t/ha needed to be increased by 40% [5]. ...
... Intensification of the area currently cultivated involves adopting more rigorous farm operation systems and the application of more chemical inputs (pesticides, fertilizers and fuel). It was expected that the newly-developed seed varieties would have improved yields over the last few decades; but, in many areas, due to the use of traditional farming methods by farmers and other technical limitations, yields are still lower than the desired production [4,8]. ...
Two models have been developed for simulating CO2 emissions from wheat farms: (1) an artificial neural network (ANN) model; and (2) a multiple linear regression model (MLR). Data were collected from 40 wheat farms in the Canterbury region of New Zealand. Investigation of more than 140 various factors enabled the selection of eight factors to be employed as the independent variables for final the ANN model. The results showed the final ANN developed can forecast CO2 emissions from wheat production areas under different conditions (proportion of wheat cultivated land on the farm, numbers of irrigation applications and numbers of cows), the condition of machinery (tractor power index (hp/ha) and age of fertilizer spreader) and N, P and insecticide inputs on the farms with an accuracy of ±11% (± 113 kg CO2/ha). The total CO2 emissions from farm inputs were estimated as 1032 kg CO2/ha for wheat production. On average, fertilizer use of 52% and fuel use of around 20% have the highest CO2 emissions for wheat cultivation. The results confirmed the ANN model forecast CO2 emissions much better than MLR model.
... Four scenarios were developed starting with a vision for 2030, with the scenario narratives describing the trends and events since 2010. The scenarios were subsequently quantified using the IMPACT model (Rosegrant et al. 1995) which is described in more detail in section 2.7. Initially, the quantification with the IMPACT model was done up to 2030, but later extended to 2050 for this study to be consistent with scenarios and analyses for the two other MacArthur regions. ...
... The model was first developed in the early 1990s by the International Food and Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The first significant results of the model were published as a 2020 vision discussion paper, Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment (Rosegrant et al. 1995), soon followed by a number of other studies looking at effects of population, investment and trade on food security with a particular focus on developing countries. The model can be used to examine the linkage between production of key food commodities and food demand and security at the national scale in the context of scenarios of future change. ...
... The scenario of the expansion of irrigated areas and the assessment of its impact on agriculture in Russia is considered in this study based on the updated version of the IMPACT-3 model [3]. Including the welfare module enables not only an estimate of the impact of irrigation development on crop yields and, hence, the income of agricultural producers, but also the identification of changes in the level of welfare of consumers and the state. ...
... The calculation results show that the first scenario (the expansion of irrigated areas) is more favorable to producers of agricultural products; their profit grows by 11%, the welfare of consumers increases at the expense of insignificantly decreased consumer prices (by 0.4%) and, therefore, the welfare of Russia's population grows by 2%. 3 This growth that is only due to the measures on the expansion of irrigation indicates the need for its development in our country. ...
This paper analyzes the possible impact of irrigation on the development of agriculture in the Volga River Basin and Black Sea Basin. Scenarios of the development of agriculture in Russia up to 2030 under the conditions of the expansion of irrigation and persistence of the current situation with irrigation have been calculated and analyzed based on the IMPACT-3 econometric partial equilibrium model.
... The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has projected per capita food availability in various countries up to the year 2020 by using an intercountry model in which the price and quantity of food are determined by the interaction of supply and demand and the countries are linked through international trade (Rosegrant et al. 1995). The baseline projection is based on IFPRI's best estimates of how income, population, trade protection, and technological improvement are likely to evolve. ...
... IFPRI uses a model employing per capita calorie availability, female education, percentage of population with access to safe water, and the share of public expenditure on social services to predict the prevalence of child malnutrition (Rosegrant et al. 1995). Alternative projections were made using the same sets of assumptions as in the case of food availability. ...
This paper examines the quality of health and nutrition in emerging Asia. The objective is to assess the likely prospects for the early 21st century and identify the policy responses that may become necessary to meet new challenges or to deal with the persistent ones. The paper begins by assessing past achievements and failures in the areas of health and nutrition in Asia in comparison with the rest of the world, and then analyzes the differentials that exist within Asia - differentials between sexes, between urban and rural location, and between countries. Some simple models are then developed to explain intercountry differences in health outcomes. Among the persistent problems, the paper highlights the excessive incidence of malnutrition in South Asia. Among the emerging problems, special attention is given to the general problem of "overlapping health transition" and the specific problems of smoking-related diseases and a potential AIDS epidemic. The paper concludes by drawing out a number of policy implications.
... In the mid-1990s, the harvested area in Asian rice ecosystems included 73 × 10 6 ha of irrigated rice, 46 × 10 6 ha of rainfed lowland production, 9 × 10 6 ha of upland rice, and around 4 × 10 6 ha of flood-prone rice ecosystems (Huke and Huke, 1997). Although the overall physical rice area was expected to change only little in the future, the forecast (Rosegrant et al., 1995) was that total rice production in Asia would have to increase by about 25% from 530 × 10 6 t in 1999 to 662 × 10 6 t in 2020 to meet the increasing rice demand in Asia (Table 1). This forecast was generally met, with total paddy production in Asia reaching 676 × 10 6 t in 2020. ...
... Food security depends on a number of physical, social, economic and political factors both national and worldwide [20]. Food security is influenced by factors such as population growth, demographic changes, rapid urbanization, income growth, and technological development, on the demand side, agricultural productivity growth on the supply side [21]. Essentially, agricultural production and productivity growth in agriculture depend on a mixture of micro-economic and macro-economic policies, which are also important along with other factors such as land, labour, technology, and capital. ...
Sustainable food production is not negotiable if food security is to be achieved. Recent statistics show increasing food insecurity issues in Nigeria despite government policy and programmes in the agricultural sector. The study specifically described agriculture growth trend under three policy regimes and analysed the effects of agricultural sector policy on food security in Nigeria between 1960 and 2020. Secondary data on agricultural output, gross deficit financing, labour employed in the agricultural sector, land, and population were obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The data were analysed using trend analysis and Dummy Variable Regression (DVR) model. The Instantaneous Growth Rate (IGR) and compound growth rate (CGR) were respectively 3 percent and 7.2 percent in 1960 – 1969, 0.5 percent and 1.2 percent in 1970 – 1985, and 3.4 percent and 8.1 percent in 1986 – 2020; the country experienced stagnated pattern of growth in the agriculture sector within the oil boom and policy reconstruction period with an instantaneous and compound growth rate of 0.5 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. An IGR and CGR of 3.4 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively were recorded during the policy stabilization era with an accelerating growth pattern. The intercept of agricultural output and per capita food production of the period with complete agricultural policy document differs from the period with no policy document by 36.8 percent and 39.8 percent, respectively, revealing an increase in the value of agricultural output and per capita food production in the period with a national policy document. The study concludes that availability of agricultural sector policy document directly impacts food security. The post-estimation tests on the models confirmed that policy implications emanating from this study are adoptable to improve food security in Nigeria through the agricultural sector policy. Proper and efficient policy mix to support agricultural production was recommended. Key words: Agricultural policy, Agricultural output, Acceleration, Dummy Variable Regression (DVR), Food security, Sustainability, Nigeria
... Therefore, this proposition would explain the price behaviour of crops in terms of market arrival and demand. The demand forecast of a country is subjected to income level, income elasticity and population growth throughout the forecasting (Rosegrant et al., 1995). Thus, in the short run, the agricultural market should not be statistically influenced by these forces (Piot-Lepetit and M' Barek, 2011). ...
Purpose
In a volatile agricultural postharvest market, producers require more personalized information about market dynamics for informed decisions on the marketed surplus. However, this adaptive strategy fails to benefit them if the selection of a computational price predictive model to disseminate information on the market outlook is not efficient, and the associated risk of perishability, and storage cost factor are not assumed against the seemingly favourable market behaviour. Consequently, the decision of whether to store or sell at the time of crop harvest is a perennial dilemma to solve. With the intent of addressing this challenge for agricultural producers, the study is focused on designing an agricultural decision support system (ADSS) to suggest a favourable marketing strategy to crop producers.
Design/methodology/approach
The present study is guided by an eclectic theoretical perspective from supply chain literature that included agency theory, transaction cost theory, organizational information processing theory and opportunity cost theory in revenue risk management. The paper models a structured iterative algorithmic framework that leverages the forecasting capacity of different time series and machine learning models, considering the effect of influencing factors on agricultural price movement for better forecasting predictability against market variability or dynamics. It also attempts to formulate an integrated risk management framework for effective sales planning decisions that factors in the associated costs of storage, rental and physical loss until the surplus is held for expected returns.
Findings
Empirical demonstration of the model was simulated on the dynamic markets of tomatoes, onions and potatoes in a north Indian region. The study results endorse that farmer-centric post-harvest information intelligence assists crop producers in the strategic sales planning of their produce, and also vigorously promotes that the effectiveness of decision making is contingent upon the selection of the best predictive model for every future market event.
Practical implications
As a policy implication, the proposed ADSS addresses the pressing need for a robust marketing support system for the socio-economic welfare of farming communities grappling with distress sales, and low remunerative returns.
Originality/value
Based on the extant literature studied, there is no such study that pays personalized attention to agricultural producers, enabling them to make a profitable sales decision against the volatile post-harvest market scenario. The present research is an attempt to fill that gap with the scope of addressing crop producer's ubiquitous dilemma of whether to sell or store at the time of harvesting. Besides, an eclectic and iterative style of predictive modelling has also a limited implication in the agricultural supply chain based on the literature; however, it is found to be a more efficient practice to function in a dynamic market outlook.
... Buğday verimini dünya ortalamasının üzerine çıkarmada, tarım tekniğindeki gelişmelerle birlikte yüksek verim potansiyeline sahip çeşitlerin ıslahı büyük önem taşımaktadır. 2020 yılına kadar buğday tüketimindeki artışın neden olacağı üretim artışı gereksiniminin, dünya genelinde yılda % 1.6, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ise % 2 olduğu ifade edilmektedir (Rosegrant et al., 1995). Ancak son yıllarda yapılan araştırmalar göstermiştir ki, buğdayda genetik potansiyeller zorlanmakta ve üretimin artırılması açısından bitkinin istediği optimum yetiştirme tekniklerinin uygulanması ve bunun yanı sıra modern ıslah yöntemlerinin ıslah programlarında kullanılması gerekmektedir (Sayre et al., 1997). ...
This study was carried out in Eskişehir, Hamidiye and Uşak locations during 2009-2010 crop growing season. In the study, the effect of seed rate (350-500-650-800 seed/square meters) on Müfitbey and Nacibey bread wheats and Dumlupınar durum wheat in three locations in terms of grain yield, plant height, harvest index, biomass weight, 1000 seed weight, the number of seeds and spikes per square meters, the number of seeds and weight per spike, hectoliter weight, seed protein content and sedimentation were determined.
... Fakat üretim yapılan alanlar son sınırına ulaşmış durumdadır. Gelişmekte olan Ülkelerdeki buğday ekim alanlarının ancak % 0.14 kadar artacağı beklenmektedir [8]. O halde, ekim alanlarının arttırılması yoluyla üretimin artırılamayacağı düşünülecek olursa, üretimin artırılması için tek çıkış yolu birim alanda verimi artırmaktır. ...
zet Bu çalışma, 2012-2013 yetiştirme yılında Diyarbakır'da yağışa bağlı koşullarda yürütülmüştür. Araştırmada, tane verimi ve bazı morfolojik parametreler ile bu özelliklerin birbiri ile ilişkileri incelenmiştir. Araştırma 10 ekmeklik buğday çeşidi ile, tesadüf blokları deneme deseninde üç tekerrürlü olarak yürütülmüştür. En düşük ve en yüksek değerlere göre; bitki boyu 71.7-101.7 cm, yaprak dikliği 30.0-56.7 0 , bitkide kardeş sayısı 2.9-4.3 adet, başak uzunluğu 8.4-11.2 cm, mumsuluk 3.0-5.0, tane verimi 476.2-688.9 kg da-1 arasında değişim göstermiştir. Yapılan korelasyon analizinde, yaprak dikliği ile bitkide kardeş sayısı ve mumsuluk arasında % 5 düzeyinde pozitif ve önemli bir ilişki olduğu görülmüştür. Çeşitlere ait veriler kullanılarak oluşturulan Biblot grafikleri; incelenen özelliklerden bitkide kardeş sayısı, yaprak dikliği ve mumsuluğun ıslah çalışmalarında dikkate alınması gerektiğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca çalışmada öne çıkan Pehlivan ve Kate A-1 çeşitlerinin ıslah çalışmalarında ebeveyn olarak kullanılabileceği sonucuna varılmıştır. Abstract This study was conducted at rainfed conditions in Diyarbakır during 2012-2013 grown seasons. In the study, grain yield and some morphological parameters were investigated in order to determine the relationship among grain yield and all morphological traits. 10 bread wheat cultivars used in this study. The trial was conducted as a randomized complete block design with three replications. The lowest and highest values of investigated traits are 71.7-101.7 cm for plant height, 30.0-56.7 0 for leaf erecness, 2.9-4.3 for numbers of tiler per plant, 8.4-11.2 cm for spike length, 3.0-5.0 for leaf glaucousness and 476.2-688.9 kg da-1 for grain yield. Leaf erecness showed significant and positive correlatin with numbers of tiller per plant and leaf glaucousness at % 5 level. Biblot chart generated by using data belonging varieties. according to biblot analysis.flag leaf glaucousness, flag leaf erecness and numbers of tiller per plant should be considered in breeding operation. Also, Pehlivan and Kate A-1 can be used as parents in breeding programs. GİRİŞ Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi 1.2 milyon hektar buğday ekim alanı ve 3.8 milyon ton buğday üretimi ile Ülkemiz buğday alanlarının yaklaşık %12 sini oluşturmaktadır[9]. Islah çalışmalarının başlıca amaçları üretici için verim yö-nünden stabil ve kalitesi yüksek çeşitler geliştirmektir. Bu amaçla araştırıcılar ıslah çalışmaları sonucunda ümitvar gör-dükleri genotipleri farklı yer ve yıllarda deneyerek standart çeşitlerden üstün olan hatları çeşit adayı olarak ortaya koy-maktadır [3]. Ülkemizde kişi başına düşen yıllık buğday üretimi 255 kg ve kişi başına gıda olarak buğday tüketimi 155-165 kg seviyesinde olup, 146 kg olan dünya ortalamasının üzerin-dedir[2]. Tane verimi ve kaliteyi artırmaya esas yetiştirme teknikleri ve çeşit geliştirme programlarında muhtelif yön-temler kullanılmakla birlikte buğday ıslahında seleksiyon önemli bir yer tutmaktadır. Nitekim uzun yıllar suren ve yo-ğun emek gerektiren çeşit ıslahında hedefe ulaşma, üzerinde çalışılan karakterlerin genetik mekanizmalarının bilinmesi ve buna bağlı olarak uygun genotiplerin seçimine bağlıdır. Yağış, sıcaklık ve toprak yapısı gibi çevresel faktörler verim, kalite ve genotiplerin performansında önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Üretimin arttırılması, ekim alanı artışı, verim artışı ya da her ikisinde birden artış sağlayarak mümkündür. Fakat üretim yapılan alanlar son sınırına ulaşmış durumda-dır. Gelişmekte olan Ülkelerdeki buğday ekim alanlarının ancak % 0.14 kadar artacağı beklenmektedir[8]. O halde, ekim alanlarının arttırılması yoluyla üretimin artırılamaya-cağı düşünülecek olursa, üretimin artırılması için tek çıkış yolu birim alanda verimi artırmaktır. Verim için genetik potansiyel artışı ekmeklik buğday ıslah programlarının önemli hedeflerinden biridir[1]. Bir ge-notipin verim performansı, genotip ve çevre arasındaki etki-leşiminin bir sonucu olduğu için bu etkileşimin açıklanması
... The IMPACT model incorporates variables such as urbanisation, population growth, commodity prices and growth in agricultural productivity, as well as global trade policy. It assumes that income growth will cause significant shifts from main staples to meat and livestock products, mostly in low and middle income countries (Rosegrant et al., 1995). The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Agricultural Outlook model uses a previously developed macroeconomic forecast and assumes existing farm policy and current trade agreements and custom unions (Carriquiry et al., 2010). ...
Against a backdrop of a rapidly changing food system and a growing population, characterisation of likely future
diets in India can help to inform agriculture and health policies. We systematically searched six published
literature databases and grey literature repositories up to January 2018 for studies projecting the consumption of
foods in India to time points beyond 2018. The 11 identified studies reported on nine foods up to 2050: the
available evidence suggests projected increases in per capita consumption of vegetables, fruit and dairy products,
and little projected change in cereal (rice and wheat) and pulse consumption. Meat consumption is projected to
remain low. Understanding and mitigating the impacts of projected dietary changes in India is important to
protect public health and the environment.
... It is predominant species which has spread to different part of world. (B) African Rice (Oryza glaberrima L.) [7]. It's also only found in Africa's tropical region. ...
Rice is the predominant crop in India and is the staple food in eastern and southern Indian populations. One of the oldest grown crops is rice. The initial discovery of cytoplasmic male sterile (CMS) three-line system made it possible to produce hybrids that significantly increase rice yields compared to its inbred counterparts. Further genetic and molecular studies help elucidate the mechanisms involved in CMS male sterility. Additional CMS types were also discovered with similar genetic control from wild sources by interspecific hybridization. In India more than 1200 varieties were released for cultivation suitable different ecosystems and out of them 128 varieties have been contributed from NRRI, Cuttack. A list of these varieties are furnished below with their duration, grain type, yield potential, reaction to major disease and insects grain quality and tolerance to different adverse situations. Recent advances in molecular approaches used in modern rice breeding include molecular marker technology and marker-assisted selection (MAS); molecular mapping of genes and QTLs and production of hybrids and alien introgression lines (AILs). Genomic selection (GS) has been projected as alternative to conventional MAS. GS has huge potential to enhance breeding efficiency by increasing gain per selection per unit time. Due to the adaptation of semi dwarf high yielding varieties, combined with intensive input management practices, the country witnessed an impressive rice production growth in the post-independent period. Rice production was increased four times, productivity three times while the area increase was only one and half times during this period. The projected rice requirement by 2025, in order to keep up with increasing population, is about 130 m.t. The challenge of growing rice production is made more difficult by declining trends in HYV’s yields, decreasing and degrading natural resources such as land and water and a severe labour shortage.
... Among the cultivated cereals, wheat becomes the first major important staple food grain cereal crop in Egypt. However, climate changes associated with erratic temperatures, drought, floods, pests and disease epidemics will reduce wheat production by 29% [1]. Genetic diversity of plants determines their potential for improved efficiency and hence their use for breeding programs, which eventually may result in enhanced food production. ...
Forty-five genotypes of wheat to determine the disease resistance of some wheat genotypes and to select disease resistant lines for future wheat breeding programs. The analysis of variance for 45 wheat genotypes revealed highly significant variation for all quantitative traits related parameters. Phenotypic coefficient of variance was slightly higher than the genotypic coefficient of variance for all studied traits, indicating presence of environmental influence on the expression of these characters. High heritability in broad sense was found in all studied traits. Highly positive significant correlation values between grain yield/plot and each of number of spikes/m2, number of kernels/spike and 1000-kernel weight. Highly positive significant correlations were detected between 1000-kernels weight and number of spikes/m2 and number of kernels/spike. Significant and high negative significant correlations between grain yield and each of yellow rust, leaf rust and powdery mildew. Yellow rust had negative correlations with number of spikes/m2, number of kernels/spike and 1000-kernel weight, respectively. Leaf rust had higher values of number of spikes/m2, number of kernels/spike in addition, 1000-kernel weight, respectively. Po Powdery mildew had negative effect on yield components with correlation values of the number of spikes/m2, number of kernels/spike and 1000-kernel weight. Disease severity response was variable among the tested genotypes. Eleven wheat genotypes have displayed high levels of adult plant resistance to diseases under study, they should be characterized as the completely resistant lines, Meanwhile, 8 genotypes exhibited susceptible disease reaction; on the other hand wheat genotypes 5-promissing lines and commercial variety Gemmiza-9 were moderately resistant to moderately susceptible or susceptible reactions but they can retard or delay the disease onset or development and show low to moderate levels of final rust severity (less than 30%) during the two growing seasons of the study. These wheat promising lines could be characterized or identified as partially resistant. Arab et al. 74
... Also there were considered the values used by Barkley et al. (2011) in their research: ε=0.17 y |η|=0.46; coming from Rosegrant et al. (1995), who, in turn, they took them from Roningen et al. (1991). The more or less intense inelasticity is characteristic in either case. ...
The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the determinants of the raising corn price in the period 2000-2011 in the United States and the effect of this increase in the welfare of agents in Mexico and U.S. To this aim, modifying the model proposed by Park and Fortenbery (2008), it is estimated a simultaneous equation system using Two Least Squares (2SLS), Three Least Squares (3SLS) and Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) techniques. For the welfare's variation there are specified linear functions of supply and demand which are complemented by constant elasticity functions, and then it is calculated the change in consumer and producer surplus in both countries. Furthermore, using 3SLS estimates, we obtain that an increase of 1 percent in the U.S. population, the fall of the Dollar Index, the corn consumption in China and India, and in the production of ethanol, the corn price increases at 2.3413, 0.0460, 0.0227 and 0.4588 percent, respectively. For the welfare's variation, it is obtained that U.S. presents a gain of 49,881.9 million dollars by considering the linear specification and 36,618.4 million by specifying constant elasticity functions. By contrast, in Mexico a loss of 3,236 and 4, 468 million pesos is identified by linear and constant elasticity specification, respectively.
... Besides FAO, institutions such as the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) have developed their own models (Robinson et al., 2015). In addition, special projects such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management, and Agrimonde (2009) (a joint project of the French Institut Nationale de la Recherche Agronomique and the Centre de Cooperation Internationale en Recherche Agronomique) have extended the general method but with an emphasis on investigating specific questions, such as water constraints, climate impacts, and the effects of specific policy decisions (de Fraiture et al., 2007;Fischer et al., 1988;Rosegrant et al., 1995Rosegrant et al., , 2001Parry et al., 2004;Chaumet et al., 2009). All are intended to inform decision making. ...
Previously I have suggested that the fate of the global food chain rests on a moral question. Customers will either come to believe that sustainable organic local and ethical (SOLE) food can feed the globe, or they will acquiesce to the narrative of the industrialised food system on the decisive grounds of moral necessity–that only pesticides, corporate concentration, and GMOs can forestall mass starvation. The defining assertion in this space is the claim of a potential global food production deficit: the supposed challenge of 'feeding the 10 billion'. The crisis narrative has been led by the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) whose mathematical modelling of the food system has predicted a 70% increase (now 60%) in the annual amount of food needed by 2050. By carefully examining the assumptions underlying its modelling, however, I show here that FAO modellers have consistently underestimated global food supplies and consistently overestimated food demand. But, as shown by its ability to adjust to the biofuel boom, the food system contains massive amounts of under-utilised capacity which goes uncounted by current quantitative models.
... Bu bitki, insanoğlu için uzun yıllardan beri en temel enerji ve protein kaynağı olma özelliğini taşımakta ve yaklaşık olarak günlük tüketilmesi gereken kalorinin % 20'sini karşılayarak dünya nüfusunu beslemektedir (Braun et al., 2010;Olgun ve ark., 2013). Günümüzde, Dünya nüfusunun hızlı bir şekilde artış göstermesi ve bu artışın düzenli olarak devam edecek olması öngörüsü, beraberinde buğday üretimin arttırılması, ekim alanlarının genişletilmesi ve verim artışı sağlanması şartlarını getirmektedir (Rosegrant, 1995). Ülkemizde bugüne kadar sürdürülen ıslah çalışmalarının temel amacı verimi arttırmak olmuştur, ancak elde edilen ürün miktarı kadar bu ürünün kalitesinin de yükseltilmesi ekonomik kullanım açısından büyük önem arz etmekte ve buğday tanesinin içeriği buğdayın son kullanım amacını belirlemede önemli unsur olmaktadır. ...
İnsan beslenmesinde önemli bir role sahip olan buğdayın yüksek tane verimi yanında kalite özelliğine de sahip olması istenilmektedir. Bu çalışma, tane verimi ve kalite özellikleri yönünden üstün performans gösteren yazlık ekmeklik buğday ileri hatlarının belirlenmesi amacıyla 2012-2013 yetiştirme sezonunda Diyarbakır ve Mardin lokasyonlarında yağışa dayalı şartlarda yürütülmüştür. Araştırma tesadüf blokları deneme desenine göre 4 tekerrürlü olarak kurulmuştur. İncelenen tüm özelliklerde genotip, lokasyon ve genotip x lokasyon interaksiyonları parametrelerinde istatistiki olarak önemli farklılıklar belirlenmiştir. Araştırmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre tane verimi 341.46-511.67 kg da-1, bin tane ağırlığı 37.40-45.99 g, hektolitre ağırlığı 80.18-82.33 kg, klorofil içeriği 44.1-47.4, tanede protein içeriği %12.42-14.75, nişasta içeriği %64.90-65.81 ve yaş gluten içeriği %25.56-28.64 değerleri arasında değişim göstermiştir. Islah çalışmalarında başarıyı artırmak ve olumsuz sonuçlarla karşılaşmamak için lokasyon denemelerinden önce erken-geç ekim ve sulu-kuru koşullarda deneme gibi farklı çevre şartları oluşturarak ileri hatlardaki genotipik farklılıkların ortaya çıkarılmasının faydalı olacağı kanısına varılmıştır.
... In Serbia, wheat is cultivated on 615,735.6 ha with an average yield of 3.96 t ha −1 [8]. Recent statistics have shown that the demand for wheat is increasing and that in 2020 it will be between 840 and 1,050 Mt [9]. This means that yield should be increased to 3.8 t·ha −1 in a short period. ...
Increased demand for food production, influenced by the constant growth of population, resulted in the agricultural production systems that are more energy and economy intensive. The aim of this study was to evaluate the energetic and economic efficiency of sugar beet and wheat production. Attention was given to the fertilizer usage and its share in energy consumption since it can amount to 50%. Data show that energy input in wheat production was 5.84 MJ·kg−1 and in sugar beet it was 0.93 MJ·kg−1. The highest share of energy input both in wheat and sugar beet was observed for fertilizers, 52.45% and 46.70%, respectively. Economic analysis has shown that wheat production is a low profitable production with a net return of only 20.69 USD·ha−1, in comparison with sugar beet production with a net return of 513.53 USD·ha−1. Costs related to the fertilizer use prevailed in total variable and total production costs. Economic analysis has also shown that the benefit-to-cost ratio was higher in sugar beet production (1.33) compared to wheat production (1.03). Furthermore, it was determined that these economic indicators were less sensitive in sugar beet production than in wheat production regarding the variation of fertilizer.
... The IMPACT model incorporates variables such as urbanisation, population growth, commodity prices and growth in agricultural productivity, as well as global trade policy. It assumes that income growth will cause significant shifts from main staples to meat and livestock products, mostly in low and middle income countries (Rosegrant et al., 1995). The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Agricultural Outlook model uses a previously developed macroeconomic forecast and assumes existing farm policy and current trade agreements and custom unions (Carriquiry et al., 2010). ...
Against a backdrop of a rapidly changing food system and a growing population, characterisation of likely future diets in India can help to inform agriculture and health policies. We systematically searched six published literature databases and grey literature repositories up to January 2018 for studies projecting the consumption of foods in India to time points beyond 2018. The 11 identified studies reported on nine foods up to 2050: the available evidence suggests projected increases in per capita consumption of vegetables, fruit and dairy products, and little projected change in cereal (rice and wheat) and pulse consumption. Meat consumption is projected to remain low. Understanding and mitigating the impacts of projected dietary changes in India is important to protect public health and the environment.
... It ' s demand in developing countries is rising in recent decades and is expected to reach 60% by 2050 (FAO, 2016). However, climate changes associated with erratic temperatures, drought, floods, pests and disease epidemics will reduce wheat production by 29% (Rosegrant et al 1995). ...
One hundred wheat genotypes derived from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) with the susceptible control Morocco (check variety)were evaluated against stem rust (Puccinia graminis f.sp. tritici), Some agronomic traits were also recorded, i.e, thousand kernel weight in grams, plant height in centimeters, spike length in centimeters, as well as pseudo black chaff predictive phenotype associated with resistance gene Sr2 were recorded on these genotypes at Sids Research Station during 2015/16 and 2016/17 growing seasons. Seven genotypes, i.e. BW-35, BW-36, BW-37, BW-47, BW-97, BW-98 and BW-99, showed (resistance to moderately resistance) R-MR response to stem rust in both seasons with significantly low percentages of final rust severity(FRS) low values of average coefficient of infection (ACI), area under disease progress curve (AUDPC) and relative area under disease progress curve (rAUDPC). Fifteen wheat lines in 2015/16, and only nine lines in 2016/17, have displayed high levels of adult plant resistance to stem rust infection under field conditions. These genotypes gave the highest values of 1000-kernel weight and other agronomic traits, indicating genetic variation which could be exploited in breeding for resistance to stem rust. The negative relationship between agronomic variables involving plant height, spike length and 1000-kernel weight, and disease parameters showed harmful effects of stem rust on plant characteristics. High heritability estimates revealed that most phenotypic changes were due to hereditary factors or genetic structure of the genotypes under studied. Also, it is evidence of the possibility of achieving great success in restoring the genes required to resist rust in future generations. Moreover, it means that genetic changes have been less affected by changes in environmental conditions from season to season. The stem rust resistant genotypes with good agronomic traits could be introgressed into adapted Egyptian backgrounds while the genotypes showing presence of PBC could be utilized to develop durable stem rust resistant wheat. It can be concluded that FRS (%) and ACI are the most appropriate indicators, to examine large numbers of breeding materials, because it was easy to apply or deal with breeders, which facilitates the success of selection process during the national breeding program without more time consumption. Farther inheritance studies are needed for breeders to elucidate the exact genes conferring resistance to stem rust, also to exploit the genetic variability in breeding materials.
... In general, these predictions were more focused on the food grain demand and didn't sufficiently analyze the feed demand. In addition, some studies were based on data before 2008, and were not able to predict the accelerated increase in grain consumption after that year [16][17][18]. Some forecasts were just based on the Chinese household consumption survey data that didn't include the off-home consumption, and thus the results were obviously underestimated [19][20][21]. ...
Associated with population and income growth, grain consumption in China is expected to increase, and thus has inevitably influenced the food security. Using statistical data of the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) from 1978 to 2017, this study adopting the vector auto-regression (VAR) model and implied demand approach, projected the future consumption of major grains (rice, wheat, maize, and soybean) for food, feed, and other uses in China during 2018–2030. On this basis, it further discussed their implications on grain security. The results showed that during 2018–2030, the Chinese dietary structure would continue to shift from food grain to animal foods. As a result, the grain’s food consumption will decrease slightly (1.5%), while the feed consumption will increase significantly (31.4%), contributing 71.4% to the total increase of grain consumption. By 2030, the total grain consumption will increase by 20.2% to 846.2 million tons, of which 50.2% will be consumed for feeding animals. In the total consumption, maize will be the largest consumed grain variety, accounting for 39.2%. The security of rice and wheat would be optimistic in the future, while the security of maize and soybeans is likely to decline, and thus needs to be given high priority. These findings have great policy implications for improving the grain security, suggesting that in addition to promote the expansion of maize and soybean growing area by adjusting the cropping structure of the arable land, great efforts should be paid to improve the yield of both crops. In addition, residents should be guided to adjust the dietary structure, and also, it is important to improve the animal feeding efficiency.
... Approximately 630 million tons of wheat (T. aestivum) is produced in over 200 million ha of cultivation area globally (Rosegrant, 1995). Wheat contributes 21% of the food calories and 20% of the protein consumed by more than 4.5 billion people in 94 developing countries (Braun et al., 2010). ...
... Total food grain production has followed the ups and downs of rice production in India. Yields must continue to increase by one percent per annum until 2020 (Rosegrant et al., 1995) to keep up with demand. A major challenge during the coming decade is to develop cost effective technology transfer methods to increase the ability of farmers to manage the resources at their disposal more efficiently. ...
ABSTRACT
Field experiments were conducted during both kharif and rabi seasons (2010-11 to 2012-13) to study the root
parameters,yield, attributes,yields and nutrient use efficiency (partial factor productivity) under rice (Oryza sativa
L) wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cropping system. The experiment was laid out in randomized block design with
seven treatments in three replications. The results indicated that recommended NPK (N120 P60 K40) with higher dose
of HYT A+B+C increased the growth, yields and yield parameters. Rice grain yield in N120P60 K40 with higher
dose of HYT A+B+C was recorded significantly higher of the order of 4474, 5556 and 6462kg/ha during all
three years 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively which was 10.9, 8.5 and 13.5 % higher during the respective
years over the recommended NPK dose of fertilizer (N120P60K40). Similarly, wheat grain yield in N120P60K40 with
higher dose of HYT A+B+C was significantly higher emanating 25.8, 29.9 and 25.3% higher yield in 2010-11,
2011-12 and 2012-13, respectively over recommended NPK treatment. It can be summarized that application of
recommended NPK with higher dose of HYT A+B+C exhibited best results in both rice and wheat in terms of
root volumes, yields and yield parameters and partial factor productivity over three consecutive years of
experimentation.
... According to an estimate, the share of calorie supply of foodgrains, non-grain crops and animal products changed from 63, 29, and 8 percent in 2000 to 48, 36 and 16 percent in 2050, respectively in India (Amarasinghe Shah & Singh, 2007). In India, the demand for grains for animals feeds increased by 9 per cent per annum in the 1990s against one per cent rise in demand for food (Rosegrant, Agcaoili-Sombilla & Perez, 1995). As a result, the per capita monthly foodgrain demand in India is projected to increase from 16.7 kg in 2007 to 19.9 kg over the next 50 years (Amarasinghe, Shah & Singh, 2007). ...
... IMPACT-Water IMPACT-Water ) was the first model to explicitly introduce water as a constraint to crop production in a global-level PE framework. As an improvement to the initial IMPACT food multi-market model (Rosegrant et al. 1995), this modified version was used in Rosegrant et al. (2002) with the aim of analysing global food security given socioeconomic development and water availability constraints. IMPACT-Water added two components to the IMPACT base version -a spatially-detailed hydrological module (IGHM) specialised in run-off calculations (30 arc-min resolution), and a water allocation module (IWSM). ...
Water deficits are increasingly perceived as a threat to future global prosperity. Given current projections of population growth and economic development, the pressure over the water resource base coming from human abstraction would continue to expand including in regions currently dealing with water scarcity. The aim of this thesis is to determine the implications of demand-driven water deficits for economic development and food security by accounting for three major factors influencing future water demand – income, population and climate change. The first main contribution of this thesis consists in the advance of the current state-of-the-art in the macroeconomic modelling of freshwater use and the endogenous mechanisms of adaptation to water scarcity. The second contribution is the development of knowledge regarding the sector-specific impacts of water scarcity under different water allocation regimes. The analyses are carried out through a global Computable General Equilibrium model (RESCU-Water) which considers the heterogeneity of water uses across the economy. Due to the importance of irrigation in global withdrawals, an emphasis is made on crop systems through a bottom-up representation of irrigated and rainfed crop production. The findings show that the aggregate economic effects of water scarcity highly depend on the choice of the water allocation method, with important trade-offs between food security and GDP impacts. Next, although the demand for irrigation water is slowing down in the next decades, any water allocation regime based on differences in sectoral water productivities will have a significant impact on crop production notably on staple crops. In this context, the demand-driven water deficits become an additional constraint for crop systems and further amplify the negative effects of climate change on crop output.
... IMPACT-Water IMPACT-Water ) was the first model to explicitly introduce water as a constraint to crop production in a global-level PE framework. As an improvement to the initial IMPACT food multi-market model (Rosegrant et al. 1995), this modified version was used in Rosegrant et al. (2002) with the aim of analysing global food security given socioeconomic development and water availability constraints. IMPACT-Water added two components to the IMPACT base version -a spatially-detailed hydrological module (IGHM) specialised in run-off calculations (30 arc-min resolution), and a water allocation module (IWSM). ...
Water deficits are increasingly perceived as a threat to future global prosperity. Given current projections of population growth and economic development, the pressure over the water resource base coming from human abstraction would continue to expand including in regions currently dealing with water scarcity. The aim of this thesis is to determine the implications of demand-driven water deficits for economic development and food security by accounting for three major factors influencing future water demand – income, population and climate change. The first main contribution of this thesis consists in the advance of the current state-of-the-art in the macroeconomic modelling of freshwater use and the endogenous mechanisms of adaptation to water scarcity. The second contribution is the development of knowledge regarding the sector-specific impacts of water scarcity under different water allocation regimes. The analyses are carried out through a global Computable General Equilibrium model (RESCU-Water) which considers the heterogeneity of water uses across the economy. Due to the importance of irrigation in global withdrawals, an emphasis is made on crop systems through a bottom-up representation of irrigated and rainfed crop production. The findings show that the aggregate economic effects of water scarcity highly depend on the choice of the water allocation method, with important trade-offs between food security and GDP impacts. Next, although the demand for irrigation water is slowing down in the next decades, any water allocation regime based on differences in sectoral water productivities will have a significant impact on crop production notably on staple crops. In this context, the demand-driven water deficits become an additional constraint for crop systems and further amplify the negative effects of climate change on crop output.
... At the global level, food production is adequate to avoid famine and malnutrition but there are wide regional disparities in availability, access and utilization. Further, the overall positive trend at the global level has disguised the disparities in production and distribution of food between regions (Rosegrant et al. 1995;Rosegrant et al. 1997). Consequently, the provision of food security would require major interventions and involve more than one strategy to transform the current patterns and practices of food production, distribution and consumption. ...
Aim: Food security is a multi-dimensional issue and is concerned with aspects such as availability, access and utilisation. It would require major interventions that will transform the current patterns and practices of food production, distribution and consumption. Food security can be attained by increasing the level of agricultural productivity and efficiency and improvements in agricultural efficiency are at the core of the quest for food security. This paper seeks to examine the efficiency in food grains production in India for the period 1960-61 to 2013-14. Design / Research methods: The key idea is to employ the non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis and the parametric Stochastic Frontier Analysis to measure the efficiency of food grains production in India. We have estimated an input oriented single output, multi – input DEA models (CRS – DEA and VRS- DEA) of agricultural production to measure the efficiency in food grains production for two time periods 1960-61 to 1989-90 and 1991-92 to 2013-14. The analysis of super efficiency was conducted for both these time periods helped identify the years in which food grains production was most efficient. Conclusions / findings: We find high average efficiency in farming operations for both the frontier methods. However, the range of efficiency obtained varies considerably for the different frontier methods. The period after 1990 has witnessed improved agricultural performance as can be inferred from the frequency distribution of the efficiency scores which indicates that during this period the overall efficiency scores have been higher and there was not a single year in which the efficiency levels have been less than 0.9. The analysis of super efficiency also vindicates the improved performance of the agricultural sector in the post 1990 periods as greater number of years recorded an efficiency score greater than 1 as compared to the previous period. However, the super efficiency scores recorded in the period 1961-1990 were higher than those in the post 1990 years suggesting thereby that there could be a tapering of the positive impact of the Green Revolution. Efficiency estimates obtained by the SFA model are marginally lower than that of the DEA model and the results of the SFA model indicate net sown area, net irrigated area and pesticides to be statistically significant inputs. Originality / value of the article: This study contributes significantly to the literature on efficiency measurement of agricultural production in India by focussing on efficiency measurement of food grains. Most studies focus on farm level data and /or on individual crops.Implications of the research: This results of this study have implications for the issue of food security in India. Its results indicate that a need to expand irrigation facilities and net sown area to improve efficiency in food grain production which is vital for the issue of food security.
... There are two principal reasons for this. Until the year 2020 at least, demand for wheat is expected to grow by approximately 1.6 percent/year worldwide and by 2 percent/year in developing countries (Rosegrant et al., 1995). This implies a need to almost double the world average wheat yields in that period, and albeit steady, recent rates of yield growth, as well as improvement in genetic yield potential (Sayre et al.,1997), are too low to keep pace with future demand. ...
... Together, rice and wheat represent the major cereal crop production in the world ( Mendez, 2010) and are the basic food for 75% of the world's population (Ju Correa et al., 2007). It provides food for almost half of the world's population ( Schalbroeck, 2001 Rosegrant et al. (1995) estimated the actual sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) rice production (17.2 million tons annually) to be about 22.23 million tons by the year 2025 while the estimates of future increase in world demand for the same period are 75% ( Khush, 2005). This suggests that SSA need to increase rice production from the current 17.2 to almost 38.2 million in fifteen years (IRRI, 2009). ...
... With the continuing increase in world population, the demand for wheat is estimated to increase by 60% by 2050 in developing countries. Moreover increases in climate change-induced temperature, diseases, insect pests and other factors are expected to contribute to a reduction in wheat production by approximately 29% in developing countries (Rosegrant et al., 1995). Besides abiotic factors such as water imbalance and nutrient deficiencies, there are a huge number of biotic stresses which result in low wheat yield. ...
... Around 630 million tons of wheat are produced every year. Climate change-induced temperature increments are relied upon to lessen wheat production in developing nations by 29% (Rosegrant et al., 1995). Wheat production differs in relation to year to year and from area to area and under changing worldwide climate, it is ending up plainly progressively critical to adjust the yield to new ecological conditions (Almeselmani et al., 2011b). ...
Five wheat cultivars (8/172, 8/70, Tammuz/4, Guard and 124) were planted in the field at the Baladrooz district, Diyala province, Iraq during winter season 2011 to monitor the emergence of Ug 99 on different wheat cultivars and evaluate their performance under similar conditions in the field. The experimental unit consisted of 15 plots in area 25 m 2 for each plot according to randomized complete block design. Results showed all cultivars of wheat were not exposure to infection by the black stem rust disease (Ug 99), cultivar of 8/172 gave the highest number of spikes /m 2 , weight of grains /m 2 (g) and weight of grains /25 m 2 (g) from another treatments which recorded (401.0, 601.5g and 15037.5 g) respectively. Wheat cultivars of Tammuz/4 and 124 gave the highest total weight of 50 plants which recorded (140 g), whereas Tammuz/4 surpassed other treatments in plant height (79 cm) and 124 cultivar was superior from other treatments in weight of 1000 grains (36.3 g).
... Around 630 million tons of wheat are produced every year. Climate change-induced temperature increments are relied upon to lessen wheat production in developing nations by 29% (Rosegrant et al., 1995). Wheat production differs in relation to year to year and from area to area and under changing worldwide climate, it is ending up plainly progressively critical to adjust the yield to new ecological conditions (Almeselmani et al., 2011b). ...
Five wheat cultivars (8/172, 8/70, Tammuz/4, Guard and 124) were planted in the field at the Baladrooz district, Diyala province, Iraq during winter season 2011 to monitor the emergence of Ug 99 on different wheat cultivars and evaluate their performance under similar conditions in the field. The experimental unit consisted of 15 plots in area 25 m 2 for each plot according to randomized complete block design. Results showed all cultivars of wheat were not exposure to infection by the black stem rust disease (Ug 99), cultivar of 8/172 gave the highest number of spikes /m 2 , weight of grains /m 2 (g) and weight of grains /25 m 2 (g) from another treatments which recorded (401.0, 601.5g and 15037.5 g) respectively. Wheat cultivars of Tammuz/4 and 124 gave the highest total weight of 50 plants which recorded (140 g), whereas Tammuz/4 surpassed other treatments in plant height (79 cm) and 124 cultivar was superior from other treatments in weight of 1000 grains (36.3 g).
... The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) was developed in the 1990s to support food policy analysis [Rosegrant et al., 1995], and has been used as a tool to analyze the effects of population, investment, and trade scenarios on food security. The model has been continuously improved, and the latest version [Rosegrant, 2012] is used in this study. ...
Agricultural land use alters regional climate through modifying the surface mass, energy, and momentum fluxes; climate influences agricultural land use through their impact on crop yields. These interactions are not well understood and have not been adequately considered in climate projections. This study tackles the critical linkages within the coupled natural-human system of West Africa in a changing climate based on an equilibrium application of a modeling framework that asynchronously couples models of regional climate, crop yield, multimarket agricultural economics, and cropland expansion. Using this regional modeling framework driven with two global climate models, we assess the contributions of land use change (LUC) and greenhouse gas (GHGs) concentration changes to regional climate changes and assess the contribution of climate change and socioeconomic factors to agricultural land use changes. For future cropland expansion in West Africa, our results suggest that socioeconomic development would be the dominant driver in the east (where current cropland coverage is already high) and climate changes would be the primary driver in the west (where future yield drop is severe). For future climate, it is found that agricultural expansion would cause a dry signal in the west and a wet signal in the east downwind, with an east-west contrast similar to the GHG-induced changes. Over a substantial portion of West Africa, the strength of the LUC-induced climate signals is comparable to the GHG-induced changes. Uncertainties originating from the driving global models are small; human decision making related to land use and international trade is a major source of uncertainty.
... by approximately 29% in developing countries (Rosegrant et al., 1995). Besides abiotic factors such as water imbalance and nutrient defi ciencies, there are a huge number of biotic stresses which result in low wheat yield. ...
... The food contributions of livestock have recently been summarised by Delgado et al. (1998). The authors also estimated future contributions using the IMPACT model developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (Rosegrant et al. 1995). Tables 1,2, 3 and 4 are adapted from those presented by Delgado et al. (1998). ...
On a global basis, livestock products - meat, milk, eggs and fibre - account for 40% of the value of total marketed agricultural product. Animal products provide essential amino acids, vitamins and minerals to help ensure nutritionally balanced diets. In developing countries, livestock traction and manure also contribute to food production through improved cultivation and soil fertility which increase crop yields. On average, the proportional contribution of livestock product to dietary calories and protein in developed countries is double that for developing countries. Demand for livestock products is fuelled by the population increase, income growth and urbanisation in developing countries. Therefore, over the past decade, consumption of livestock product has sharply increased in developing countries, while slightly decreasing in developed countries where consumption is already relatively high on average. Increased demand in developing countries increases income for producers, but also stresses the environment through pollution, soil erosion, overgrazing and deforestation. Research involving global partnerships of scientists and institutes can help ensure that the increased demands for livestock product in developing countries will be met in economically feasible and environmentally sustainable ways.
... Genetic yield potential improvement is responsible for more than 50 % of wheat yield gains in the USA (Feyerherm et al. 1984) and across the world, and will continue to be the most effective solution to meet increasing wheat grain demands (Reynolds et al. 1999). Current wheat yield improvements are at one percent per year; lagging behind by 30–40 % (Rosengrant et al. 1995), the improvement that will be required to meet the projected wheat demand for increasing world population (Kruse 2010). In winter wheat, genetic yield improvement rate per year ranges from 0.56 to 1.4 % in eastern Virginia (Green et al. 2012) and 0.45 % in Europe (Cormier et al. 2013). ...
Canopy spectral reflectance (CSR) is a cost-effective, rapid, and non-destructive remote sensing and selection tool that can be employed in high throughput plant phenotypic studies. The objectives of the current study were to evaluate the predictive potential of vegetative indices as a high-throughput phenotyping tool for nitrogen use efficiency in soft red winter wheat (SRWW) (Triticum aestivum L.) and determine the optimum growth stage for employing CSR. A panel of 281 regionally developed SRWW genotypes was screened under low and normal N regimes in two crop seasons for grain yield, N uptake, nitrogen use efficiency for yield (NUEY) and nitrogen use efficiency for protein (NUEP). Vegetative indices were calculated from CSR and the data were analyzed by year and over the 2 years. Multiple regression and Pearson’s correlation were used to obtain the best predictive models and vegetative indices. The chosen models explained 84 and 83 % of total variation in grain yield and N uptake respectively, over two crop seasons. Models further accounted for 85 and 77 % of total variation in NUEY, and 85, and 81 % of total variation in NUEP under low and normal N conditions, respectively. In general, yield, NUEY and NUEP had greater than 0.6 R2 values in 2011–2012 but not in 2012–2013. Differences between years are likely a result of saturation of CSR indices due to high biomass and crop canopy coverage in 2012–2013. Heading was found to be the most appropriate crop growth stage to sense SRWW CSR data for predicting grain yield, N uptake, NUEY, and NUEP.
Engineering diazotrophic rice having either an integral component of diazotrophic microbes or placing microbial origin nif gene to the rice plant is the dream of biotechnologist. Rice-Aeschynomene ecosystem of pristine chaur land provides a suitable niche to search Rhizobium endophytes in rice. Accordingly, the work was initiated to search suitable endophytic Rhizobium strain for artificial symbiosis within the roots of Desariya rice and its source through morphological, biochemical and molecular approaches. Detection of Acetylene reduction assay (ARA) activity in sterilized Desariya rice root confirmed the presence of putative diazotrophic endophytes in rice root. Isolates from Aeschynomene aspera L. nodulating and Desariya rice endophytic Rhizobium were evaluated for growth, IAA, morphological and biochemical features. Carbon profiling pattern of both these isolates indicated that Desariya rice endophytic Rhizobium has its similarity with Aeschynomene aspera L. nodulating Rhizobium. 16S rRNA gene sequencing confirmed the presence of endophytic Bradyrhizobium sp. in Desariya rice roots and its similarity with Aeschynomene aspera L. nodulating Bradyrhizobium. Desariya rice Bradyrhizobium may be an ideal candidate in the future for creating artificial symbiosis in rice due to its similarity with Aeschynomene aspera L. Bradyrhizobium.
Introduction and Objective: Wheat is of great importance in the nutrition of human society, especially in third world countries. Stem rust or black rust is the most common, widespread and destructive wheat disease in Iran and around the world. The extent of damage of this disease, depending on its severity, can vary from reduced yields to complete destruction of farms. The development of genotypes with the black rust resistance gene is one of the most important strategies to combat this destructive disease, considering the importance of wheat in the nutrition of human society, especially in third world countries. Identifying sources of resistance to import them in breeding programs leads to the development of resistant genotypes.
Material and Methods: 89 bread wheat cultivars along with Morocco as susceptible control were studied with the aim of identifying stem rust resistance cultivars in the seedling stage to six races of the disease in randomized complete block design with two replications. All stages of plant assessment were carried out in the Cereal Research Department, Seed and Plant Improvement Institute (SPII), Karaj, Alborz, Iran, in 2019. In the GGE Biplot graphics model, each disease races (PKTTF, PKSTC, PKSTF, PTRTF, TTTTF and PTTTF) were considered as an environment, Therefore, based on the singular value decomposition of cultivars' response to races, graphical analysis was performed.
Results: PKTTF, PKSTC, PKSTF, PTRTF and TTTTF were classified into a group based on the degree of correlation between them and Pishtaz, Sivand, Adl, Pishgam, Niknezhad and Alvand cultivars had resistance to those races. PTTTF race was placed in the second group and Hamoon, Marvdasht, Zarrin, Gohar, Darab 2 and Sabalan cultivars showed resistance against this race. Pishtaz and Adl illustrated stable resistance reaction for all six studied races. The severity of virulence of the studied races confirmed the high pathogenicity of PTTTF on the investigated germplasm. The orders of pathogenicity of other races from highest to lowest were PKTTF, TTTTF, PTRTF, PKSTF and PKSTC.
Conclusion: The multivariate graphical GGE biplot method was effective in investigating the resistance of commercial wheat cultivars and provided valuable information on the identification of cultivars with genes resistant to black rust disease. By introducing these cultivars in breeding programs, an effective step can be taken to develop cultivars resistant to this disease and to deal with it genetically.
Engineering diazotrophic rice having either an integral component of diazotrophic microbes or placing microbial origin nif gene to the rice plant is the dream of biotechnologist. Rice-Aeschynomene ecosystem of pristine chaur land provides a suitable niche to search Rhizobium endophytes in rice. Accordingly, the work was initiated to search suitable endophytic Rhizobium strain for artificial symbiosis within the roots of Desariya rice and its source through morphological, biochemical and molecular approaches. Detection of Acetylene reduction assay (ARA) activity in sterilized Desariya rice root confirmed the presence of putative diazotrophic endophytes in rice root. Isolates from Aeschynomene aspera L. nodulating and Desariya rice endophytic Rhizobium were evaluated for growth, IAA, morphological and biochemical features. Carbon profiling pattern of both these isolates indicated that Desariya rice endophytic Rhizobium has its similarity with Aeschynomene aspera L. nodulating Rhizobium. 16S rRNA gene sequencing confirmed the presence of endophytic Bradyrhizobium sp. in Desariya rice roots and its similarity with Aeschynomene aspera L. nodulating Bradyrhizobium. Desariya rice Bradyrhizobium may be an ideal candidate in the future for creating artificial symbiosis in rice due to its similarity with Aeschynomene aspera L. Bradyrhizobium.
China's grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever‐increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the “triple high” phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic–world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon. Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011–2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self‐sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self‐sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.
Stem rust Puccinia graminis Pers. f. sp. tritici of wheat is the most important disease in Kenya. Emergence of race Ug99 and other variants virulent to host resistance genes including Sr31 has rendered 95% of Kenyan cultivars susceptible. This study aimed to identify new sources of resistance to stem rust in a collection of exotic genotypes. Three hundred and sixteen wheat genotypes were screened at the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) in Njoro for two seasons in 2015. The host reaction to disease was evaluated based on the modified Cobb scale. The relative Final Rust Severity (rFRS), Average Coefficient of Infection (ACI) and relative Area Under Disease Progress Curve (rAUDPC) were used to characterize the genotypes for stem rust resistance. Agronomic traits were also recorded. Six genotypes namely ALBW-100, ALBW- 204, EPCBW-261, EPCBW-295, PCHP-309 and PCHPBW-310 with significantly low ACI, rAUDPC and rFRS were identified. Thirty five genotypes showed Pseudo-Black Chaff (PBC) phenotype associated with resistant gene Sr2, a source of partial resistance in wheat. The genotypes also showed low disease severity (20-25%) and Moderately Susceptible (MS) – Susceptible (S) infection types in both seasons. Genotypes had significant differences (p ≤ 0.05) on plant height, 1000-kernel weight and number of tillers indicating genetic variation which could be exploited in breeding for resistance to stem rust. The negative relationship between agronomic variables involving plant height, spikelet length and 1000-kernel weight showed harmful effects of stem rust on plant characteristics including yield. The stem rust resistant genotypes with good agronomic traits could be introgressed into adapted Kenyan backgrounds while the genotypes showing presence of PBC could be utilized to develop durable stem rust resistant wheat. Inheritance studies to elucidate the exact genes conferring resistance to stem rust could be conducted for breeders to exploit their genetic variability.
In recent years, the world witnessed the rapid development of plant transformation technology. Genetically modified cultivars from soybean, maize, oilseed rape, and cotton have been widely grown and provided enormous economic and social benefits. Wheat is one of the major food crops for the world’s population. Since the first report of wheat transgenic plants in 1992, significant progress has been made in wheat transformation technology that provides a solid foundation for molecular breeding in wheat. Up to date, the particle bombardment and the Agrobacterium-mediated transformation remain to be the two major approaches
for wheat transformation, representing 68.8% and 15.9%, respectively, among reported cases. Transgenic wheat have been applied to improve disease and insect resistance, abiotic stress tolerance, quality, and grain yield, with disease resistance (39.7%) and quality improvement (25.6%) as two major areas. In this review, the current research progress in wheat transformation technology and its application status were summarized. The existing problems in wheat transformation were discussed and the development direction in this area was proposed.
The International Food Policy Research Institute’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales. IMPACT is continually being updated and improved to better inform the choices that decisionmakers face today. This document describes the latest version of the model. IMPACT version 3 expands the geographic and commodity scope of the model in response to desires expressed by researchers and policymakers to address more complex questions involving climate change, food security, and economic development into the future. IMPACT 3 is an integrated modeling system that links information from climate models (Earth System Models), crop simulation models (for example, Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer), and water models linked to a core global, partial equilibrium, multimarket model focused on the agriculture sector. This model system supports longer-term scenario analysis through the integration of these multidisciplinary modules to provide researchers and policymakers with a flexible tool to assess and compare the potential effects of changes in biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.
Biomass may be a useful selection trait for yield improvement in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). The aim of this study was to determine wheat genotypes with higher yield, biomass and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Experiments were conducted under Eskisehir conditions in 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 growing seasons, 49 genotypes were used in the research. The experimental layout was Balanced Lattice Square Design with 3 different treatments of water, namely full irrigation (S), suplementary irrigation (D) and rainfed (K).Above ground samples were taken at four different growth stages (Zadoks 31, 40, 69 and 94) for biomass and yield components were determined. In the research, rainfed, suplementary irrigation, and full irrigation resulted in grain yields of 434 kg/da, 604 kg/da and 666 kg/da, respectively. There were significant correlations between grain yield and NDVI at tillering stage (ZD 24) The correlation coefficients obtained were r= 0,43**, for rainfed treatment; r=0,45**, for suplementary irrigation , but there was not a significant correlation under full irrigation.
The International Food Policy Research Institute’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales. IMPACT is continually being updated and improved to better inform the choices that decisionmakers face today. This document describes the latest version of the model. IMPACT version 3 expands the geographic and commodity scope of the model in response to desires expressed by researchers and policymakers to address more complex questions involving climate change, food security, and economic development into the future. IMPACT 3 is an integrated modeling system that links information from climate models (Earth System Models), crop simulation models (for example, Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer), and water models linked to a core global, partial equilibrium, multimarket model focused on the agriculture sector. This model system supports longer-term scenario analysis through the integration of these multidisciplinary modules to provide researchers and policymakers with a flexible tool to assess and compare the potential effects of changes in biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.
The total global GHG emission from agriculture, considering all direct and indirect emissions, is between 17 % and 32 % of the total humaninduced GHG emissions, including land use changes. It is estimated that livestock production is responsible for 15–24 % of GHG emissions. Cattle, pigs and poultry are the major world livestock, and European countries have one of the highest livestock densities in the world. The dairy cow and beef cattle sectors are the largest sources of agriculture GHG emissions, with CH4from enteric fermentation and N2O from agricultural soils being the most important. However, agriculture could contribute significantly to GHG emission mitigation. In the EU, livestock farming contributes approximately 10 % of the total global GHG emissions. The European livestock sector is expected to remain dynamic in the forthcoming years. The possibility of predicting and modelling emissions from livestock farm GHGs is important due to the increasingly restrictive European standards. This chapter presents various modelling approaches to predict livestock’s contribution to GHG emissions in the EU.
Concerns have been raised in WTO negotiations over the possible distortion of international trade on account of India’s grain stocks and use of India’s stocks for dumping in African markets. The present study attempts to examine this issue by analyzing India’s production, stocking and export patterns over the last decade. The study also analyzes the likely grain requirements under the National Food Security Act in order to assess the prospects of exportable surplus. The findings suggest that India is unlikely to possess the requisite exportable surplus to distort international trade and India’s grain export patterns to Africa during the last decade show little or no evidence of dumping in the African markets.
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