Petr Havlík

• PhD
• Senior Researcher at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

The life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of biofuels depend on uncertain estimates of induced land use change (ILUC) and subsequent emissions from carbon stock changes. Demand for oilseed-based biofuels is associated with particularly complex market and supply chain dynamics, which must be considered. Using the global partial equilibrium model...

Wildfire events are driven by complex interactions of climate and anthropogenic interventions. Predictions of future wildfire events, their extremity, and their impact on the environment and economy must account for the interactions between these drivers. Economic policy and land use decisions influence the susceptibility of an area to climate extr...

Carbon sequestration on agricultural land, albeit long-time neglected, offers substantial mitigation potential. Here we project, using an economic land-use model, that these options offer cumulative mitigation potentials comparable to afforestation by 2050 at 160 USD2022 tCO2 equivalent (tCO2e⁻¹), with most of it located in the Global South. Carbon...

Modelling approaches and related policy recommendations to inform food system transformation to address sustainable agriculture, food security and nutrition and aspects of biodiversity protection with focus on Indonesia.

Although reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions from food and energy production contribute to multi-dimensional environmental damages, integrated management of Nr is still lacking owing to unclear future mitigation potentials and benefits. Here, we find that by 2050, high-ambition compared to low-ambition N interventions reduce global ammonia and nitroge...

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes are posed to have profound impact on forests and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different inte...

Monitoring and estimating spatially resolved changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are necessary for supporting national and international policies aimed at assisting land degradation neutrality and climate change mitigation, improving soil fertility and food production, maintaining water quality, and enhancing renewable energy and ecosystem...

China’s imports of livestock feed, particularly protein-rich feeds, pose challenges to global environmental sustainability. Achieving protein self-sufficiency for food and feed in China without exceeding environmental boundaries requires integrated measures and optimization of China’s food system. Here we propose holistic food system innovation str...

Worldwide hundreds of millions of people suffer from water, food and energy insecurity in transboundary river basins, such as the Zambezi River Basin. The interconnected nature of nexus is often not recognized in investment planning and many regional policymakers lack adequate tools to tackle it. Future growing demands and climate change add an add...

The rapid urbanization in Africa profoundly affects local food and ecological systems. According to earlier research, urbanization may cause food production and biodiversity losses as agricultural or natural lands are absorbed by expanding cities. Land-use displacement effects may buffer agricultural production losses or may lead to additional biod...

With rising demand for food and the threats posed by climate change, The Gambia faces significant challenges in ensuring sufficient and nutritious food for its population. To address these challenges, there is a need to increase domestic food production while limiting deforestation and land degradation. In this study, we modified the FABLE Calculat...

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold...

The world is in the midst of a triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution and waste. The global economy is consuming ever more natural resources, while the world is not on track to meet the Sustainable Development Goals. The scientific community has never before been more aligned or more resolute on the need for urg...

Deadwood is a key old-growth element in European forests and a cornerstone of biodiversity conservation practices in the region, recognized as an important indicator of sustainable forest management. Despite its importance as a legacy element for biodiversity, uncertainties remain on the drivers of deadwood potentials, its spatial distribution in E...

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, an increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes is posed to have profound impact on forests, and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different I...

Most of the world's nations (around 130) have committed to reaching net‐zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, yet robust policies rarely underpin these ambitions. To investigate whether existing and expected national policies will allow Brazil to meet its net‐zero GHG emissions pledge by 2050, we applied a detailed regional...

There is an urgent need to better understand and predict crop yield responses to weather disturbances, in particular, of extreme nature, such as heavy precipitation events, droughts, and heat waves, to improve future crop production projections under weather variability, extreme events, and climate change. In this paper, we develop quantile regress...

The rapid urbanization in Africa profoundly affects local food and ecological systems. According to earlier research, urbanization may cause food production and biodiversity losses as agricultural or natural lands are absorbed by expanding cities. Although land use displacement effects may potentially buffer agricultural production losses or lead t...

Plant-based animal product alternatives are increasingly promoted to achieve more sustainable diets. Here, we use a global economic land use model to assess the food system-wide impacts of a global dietary shift towards these alternatives. We find a substantial reduction in the global environmental impacts by 2050 if globally 50% of the main animal...

The severe water scarcity (SWS) concept allows for consistent analysis of the supply and demand for water sourced grain production worldwide. Thus, the primary advantage of using SWS is its ability to simultaneously accommodate the spatial extent and temporal persistence of droughts using climatic data. The SWS concept was extended here to drivers...

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, among other negative-emission technologies, is required for China to achieve carbon neutrality—yet it may hinder land-based Sustainable Development Goals. Using modelling and scenario analysis, we investigate how to mitigate the potential adverse impacts on the food system of ambitious bioenergy deployment...

The livestock system in Europe relies on a complex holistic equilibrium that is the outcome of an interplay of demand, market, crop production, livestock production, land use, water availability, and other factors. When modeling future scenarios of water consumption by livestock systems, the most suitable tools result from the interconnectivity of...

As Africa is facing multiple challenges related to food security, frameworks integrating production and availability are urgent for policymaking. Attention should be given not only to gradual socio-economic and climatic changes but also to their temporal variability. Here we present an integrated framework that allows one to assess the impacts of s...

The paper discusses connections between the problems of the two-stage stochastic programming, robust decision making, robust statistical estimation and machine learning. In the conditions of uncertainty, possible extreme events and outliers, these problems require quantile-based criteria, constraints, and “goodness-of-fit” indicators. The two-stage...

Working paper analysing the economic implications of the proposed 30% target for areal protection in the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework

Agricultural expansion to meet humanity’s growing needs for food and materials is a leading driver of land-use change, exacerbating climate change and biodiversity loss. Seaweed biomass farmed in the ocean could help reduce demand for terrestrial crops and reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by providing a substitute or supplement for food...

Detailed data on the location of crops is essential to inform national food and agricultural policies. A key source of information on the spatial distribution of crops are the global datasets produced with the Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM). SPAM uses an optimization approach to allocate national and subnational crop statistics for four...

Meeting ambitious climate targets will require deploying the full suite of mitigation options, including those that indirectly reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. Healthy diets have sustainability co-benefits by directly reducing livestock emissions as well as indirectly reducing land use emissions. Increased crop productivity could indirectly a...

In this paper we discuss the on-going joint work contributing to the IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria) and National Academy of Science of Ukraine projects on “Modeling and management of dynamic stochastic interdependent systems for food-water-energy-health security nexus” (see [1-2] and references ther...

Over 130 countries have committed to reaching net-zero CO2 or GHG emissions by 2050, yet this ambition is rarely underpinned by robust policies. By applying a detailed integrated assessment modelling approach for Brazil, we assess, for the first time, the extent to which the existing and planned local policies could put Brazil on the path to its ne...

Developing and integrating agricultural markets may be key to addressing Africa’s sustainability challenges. By modelling trade costs from farm gate to potential import markets across eight African regions, we investigate the impact of individual components of continental free trade and the complementary role of domestic agricultural development th...

This study investigates whether agricultural policy reforms could help cushion the impacts of climate change on agriculture by facilitating the relocation of production and international trade. The agricultural sector faces immense challenges in ensuring the provision of food, farm incomes, employment and environmental services in a changing climat...

Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solution...

Earlier studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation strategies on food security, particularly due to food price increases—but without distinguishing these strategies’ individual effects under different conditions. Using six global agroeconomic models, we show the extent to which three factors—non-CO2 emissions...

The paper presents a consistent algorithm for regional and sectoral distributed models’ linkage and optimization under asymmetric information based on iterative stochastic quasigradient (SQG) solution procedure of, in general, nonsmooth nondifferentiable optimization. The procedure is used for linking individual sectoral and regional models for int...

Uncertainty and variability are key challenges for climate change adaptation planning. In the face of uncertainty, decision-making can be addressed in two interdependent stages: make only partial ex ante anticipative actions to keep options open until new information is revealed, and adapt the first-stage decisions with respect to newly acquired in...

Traditional integrated modeling (IM) is based on developing and aggregating all relevant (sub)models and data into a single integrated linear programming (LP) model. Unfortunately, this approach is not applicable for IM under asymmetric information (ASI), i.e., when “private” information regarding sectoral/regional models is not available, or it ca...

As ongoing research efforts contribute to elucidating the consequences of climate change as well as adaptation and mitigation options, aligning the current research knowledge with stakeholder opinions and perceptions remains critical for adopting effective climate change policies. This paper utilizes an interactive survey to (1) address the aforeme...

Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid em...

Methane’s short atmospheric life has important implications for the design of global climate change mitigation policies in agriculture. Three different agricultural economic models are used to explore how short- and long-term warming effects of methane can affect the cost-effectiveness of mitigation policies and dietary transitions. Results show th...

Uncertainty and variability of climate changes are key challenges for adaptation planning. In the face of uncertainty, the decision-making can be addressed in two interdependent stages: make only partial ex-ante anticipative actions to keep options open until new information is revealed; and adapt the first-stage decisions with respect to newly acq...

A comment by Dr. Rigolot acknowledged the scientific value of our recent study on livestock methane emissions and mitigation potentials, while highlighting that our study should better “cultivate synergies between production and more ambitious demand‐side efforts.” The author's comment questioned our narrative to be inadvertently (not intentionally...

The competitive advantage of traditional forest industry regions such as North America, Russia and the EU is based largely on the production and processing of coniferous (C) biomass. However, non-coniferous (NC) and recycled (R) biomass provide cost-effective alternatives to C biomass, which have already decreased the proportion of C biomass use an...

Trade liberalization in the early 21st century increased the adaptation capacity of global food systems to climate change; further liberalization and trade facilitation could help to avoid dozens of millions being undernourished at mid-century. The global trade agenda should explicitly include climate change adaptation to achieve SDG 2 Zero Hunger....

Satisfying China’s food demand without harming the environment is one of the greatest sustainability challenges for the coming decades. Here we provide a comprehensive forward-looking assessment of the environmental impacts of China’s growing demand on the country itself and on its trading partners. We find that the increasing food demand, especial...

Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing "bottom-up" sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models...

p>Achieving climate neutrality in the European Union (EU) by 2050 will require substantial efforts across all economic sectors, including agriculture. At the same time, an ambitious unilateral EU agricultural mitigation policy is likely to have adverse effects on the sector and may have limited efficiency at global scale due to emission leakage to...

While nitrogen inputs are crucial to agricultural production, excess nitrogen contributes to serious ecosystem damage and water pollution. Here, we investigate this trade-off using an integrated modelling framework. We quantify how different nitrogen mitigation options contribute to reconciling food security and compliance with regional nitrogen su...

Assesses the effectiveness of different policies in cutting net emissions from the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, with a view to helping limit long-term global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2°C

In the presentation we discuss critical issues related to the design of resilient and robust food, water, energy, environmental systems in the presence of interdependent systemic risks. We introduce the notions of systemic risks, security, resilience and robustness in FWEE systems. We emphasize the need for the two-stage preventive-adaptive stochas...

Input–output estimates of nitrogen on cropland are essential for improving nitrogen management and better understanding the global nitrogen cycle. Here, we compare 13 nitrogen budget datasets covering 115 countries and regions over 1961–2015. Although most datasets showed similar spatiotemporal patterns, some annual estimates varied widely among th...

The livestock sector is the largest source of anthropogenic methane emissions, and is projected to increase in the future with increased demand for livestock products. Here, we compare livestock methane emissions and emission intensities, defined by the amount of methane emitted per unit of animal proteins, estimated by different methodologies, and...

Mitigation pathways by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) describe future emissions that keep global warming below specific temperature limits and are compared with countries’ collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges. This is needed to assess mitigation progress and inform emission targets under the Paris Agreement. Currently, ho...

We review consumer-side interventions and their effectiveness to support a transition to healthier and more environmentally sustainable diets and identify taxes/subsidies as relevant instruments. To quantify the scope of necessary tax levels to achieve dietary recommendations on EU average, we apply three established economic models. Our business-a...

This paper investigates how the short-lived character of methane could have important implications for the design of global climate change mitigation policies in agriculture, sector which is often seen to have a limited contribution to a net-zero carbon economy. Motivated by the renewed attention for the short-term versus long-term warming effects...

Concerns regarding the impact of climate change, food price volatility, and weather uncertainty have motivated users of simulation models to consider uncertainty in their simulations. One way to do this is to integrate uncertainty components in the model equations, thus turning the model into a problem of numerical integration. Most of these proble...

Even though enormous expectations for greenhouse gas mitigation in the land use sector exist at the same time worries about potential implications for sustainable development have been raised as many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are closely tied to developments in the sector. Here we assess the implications of achieving selected key SDG ind...

Critical imbalances and threshold exceedances can trigger a disruption in a network of interdependent systems. An insignificant-at-first-glance shock can induce systemic risks with cascading catastrophic impacts. Systemic risks challenge traditional risk assessment and management approaches. These risks are shaped by systemic interactions, risk exp...

Grasslands absorb and release carbon dioxide (CO2), emit methane (CH4) from grazinglivestock, and emit nitrous oxide (N2O) from soils. Little is known about how thefluxesof these three greenhouse gases, from managed and natural grasslands worldwide, havecontributed to past climate change, or the roles of managed pastures versus natural grass-lands....

Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use (AFOLU) are thought to play a vital role in long-term GHG emissions reduction, especially for their importance in non-CO2 emissions, bioenergy supply and carbon sequestration realized by afforestation. Several studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation on food security,...

Allowing delayed climate mitigation actions and overshoot of temperature targets requires large scale negative carbon emissions that may induce adverse side-effects on land, food and ecosystems in the second half of this century. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without net negative emissions inevitably needs the implementation of early and quick e...

Increasing population, change in consumption habits, and climate change will likely increase the competition for freshwater resources in the future. Exploring ways to improve water productivity especially in food and livestock systems is important for tackling the future water challenge. Here we combine detailed data on feed use and livestock produ...

Previous studies have projected a significant role for bioenergy in decarbonizing the global economy and helping realize international climate goals such as limiting global average warming to 2 ˚C or 1.5 ˚C. However, with substantial variability in bioenergy results and significant concerns about potential environmental and social implications, gre...

Stochastic agro-economic model GLOBIOM is used to demonstrate how best to design and evaluate the CAP’s financial and structural measures, both individually and jointly, in the face of inherent uncertainty and risk. The model accounts for plausible shocks simultaneously and derives measures that are robust against all shock scenarios; it can thus h...

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity³; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge⁴. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and bi...

Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated asse...

International trade enables us to exploit regional differences in climate change impacts and is increasingly regarded as a potential adaptation mechanism. Here, we focus on hunger reduction through international trade under alternative trade scenarios for a wide range of climate futures. Under the current level of trade integration, climate change...

Global economic models have been increasingly used to project food and agricultural developments for long term-time horizons, but food security aspects have often been limited to food availability projections. In this paper, we propose a broader framework to explore the future of food and nutrition security with a focus on food availability, food a...

Brazilian agricultural production provides a significant fraction of the food consumed globally, with the country among the top exporters of soybeans, sugar, and beef. However, current advances in Brazilian agriculture can be directly impacted by climate change and resulting biophysical effects. Here, we quantify these impacts until 2050 using GLOB...

Future technologies and systemic innovation are critical for the profound transformation the food system needs. These innovations range from food production, land use and emissions, all the way to improved diets and waste management. Here, we identify these technologies, assess their readiness and propose eight action points that could accelerate t...

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-us...

Most scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) that project greenhouse gas emissions include the use of bioenergy as a means to reduce CO2 emissions or even to achieve negative emissions (together with CCS – carbon capture and storage). The potential amount of CO2 that can be removed from the atmosphere depends, among others, on the yields...

Land-use change is a direct driver of biodiversity and carbon storage loss. Projections of future land use often include notable expansion of cropland areas in response to changes in climate and food demand, although there are large uncertainties in results between models and scenarios. This study examines these uncertainties by comparing three dif...

Pasturelands are globally extensive, sensitive to climate, and support livestock production systems that provide an essential source of food in many parts of the world. In this paper, we integrate information from remote sensing, global climate, and land use databases to improve understanding of the resilience and resistance of this ecologically vu...

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.