Petr Havlík

Petr Havlík
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis | IIASA · Ecosystems Management and Services (ESM)

PhD

About

290
Publications
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20,339
Citations

Publications

Publications (290)
Article
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This study investigates whether agricultural policy reforms could help cushion the impacts of climate change on agriculture by facilitating the relocation of production and international trade. The agricultural sector faces immense challenges in ensuring the provision of food, farm incomes, employment and environmental services in a changing climat...
Article
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Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solution...
Article
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Earlier studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation strategies on food security, particularly due to food price increases—but without distinguishing these strategies’ individual effects under different conditions. Using six global agroeconomic models, we show the extent to which three factors—non-CO2 emissions...
Article
The paper presents a consistent algorithm for regional and sectoral distributed models’ linkage and optimization under asymmetric information based on iterative stochastic quasigradient (SQG) solution procedure of, in general, nonsmooth nondifferentiable optimization. The procedure is used for linking individual sectoral and regional models for int...
Article
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Uncertainty and variability are key challenges for climate change adaptation planning. In the face of uncertainty, decision-making can be addressed in two interdependent stages: make only partial ex ante anticipative actions to keep options open until new information is revealed, and adapt the first-stage decisions with respect to newly acquired in...
Article
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Traditional integrated modeling (IM) is based on developing and aggregating all relevant (sub)models and data into a single integrated linear programming (LP) model. Unfortunately, this approach is not applicable for IM under asymmetric information (ASI), i.e., when “private” information regarding sectoral/regional models is not available, or it ca...
Article
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As ongoing research efforts contribute to elucidating the consequences of climate change as well as adaptation and mitigation options, aligning the current research knowledge with stakeholder opinions and perceptions remains critical for adopting effective climate change policies. This paper utilizes an interactive survey to (1) address the aforeme...
Article
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Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid em...
Article
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Satisfying China’s food demand without harming the environment is one of the greatest sustainability challenges for the coming decades. Here we provide a comprehensive forward-looking assessment of the environmental impacts of China’s growing demand on the country itself and on its trading partners. We find that the increasing food demand, especial...
Article
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A comment by Dr. Rigolot acknowledged the scientific value of our recent study on livestock methane emissions and mitigation potentials, while highlighting that our study should better “cultivate synergies between production and more ambitious demand‐side efforts.” The author's comment questioned our narrative to be inadvertently (not intentionally...
Article
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Methane’s short atmospheric life has important implications for the design of global climate change mitigation policies in agriculture. Three different agricultural economic models are used to explore how short- and long-term warming effects of methane can affect the cost-effectiveness of mitigation policies and dietary transitions. Results show th...
Conference Paper
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Uncertainty and variability of climate changes are key challenges for adaptation planning. In the face of uncertainty, the decision-making can be addressed in two interdependent stages: make only partial ex-ante anticipative actions to keep options open until new information is revealed; and adapt the first-stage decisions with respect to newly acq...
Article
The competitive advantage of traditional forest industry regions such as North America, Russia and the EU is based largely on the production and processing of coniferous (C) biomass. However, non-coniferous (NC) and recycled (R) biomass provide cost-effective alternatives to C biomass, which have already decreased the proportion of C biomass use an...
Article
Trade liberalization in the early 21st century increased the adaptation capacity of global food systems to climate change; further liberalization and trade facilitation could help to avoid dozens of millions being undernourished at mid-century. The global trade agenda should explicitly include climate change adaptation to achieve SDG 2 Zero Hunger....
Article
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Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing "bottom-up" sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models...
Article
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p>Achieving climate neutrality in the European Union (EU) by 2050 will require substantial efforts across all economic sectors, including agriculture. At the same time, an ambitious unilateral EU agricultural mitigation policy is likely to have adverse effects on the sector and may have limited efficiency at global scale due to emission leakage to...
Article
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While nitrogen inputs are crucial to agricultural production, excess nitrogen contributes to serious ecosystem damage and water pollution. Here, we investigate this trade-off using an integrated modelling framework. We quantify how different nitrogen mitigation options contribute to reconciling food security and compliance with regional nitrogen su...
Technical Report
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Assesses the effectiveness of different policies in cutting net emissions from the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, with a view to helping limit long-term global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2°C
Chapter
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In the presentation we discuss critical issues related to the design of resilient and robust food, water, energy, environmental systems in the presence of interdependent systemic risks. We introduce the notions of systemic risks, security, resilience and robustness in FWEE systems. We emphasize the need for the two-stage preventive-adaptive stochas...
Article
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Input–output estimates of nitrogen on cropland are essential for improving nitrogen management and better understanding the global nitrogen cycle. Here, we compare 13 nitrogen budget datasets covering 115 countries and regions over 1961–2015. Although most datasets showed similar spatiotemporal patterns, some annual estimates varied widely among th...
Article
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The livestock sector is the largest source of anthropogenic methane emissions, and is projected to increase in the future with increased demand for livestock products. Here, we compare livestock methane emissions and emission intensities, defined by the amount of methane emitted per unit of animal proteins, estimated by different methodologies, and...
Article
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Mitigation pathways by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) describe future emissions that keep global warming below specific temperature limits and are compared with countries’ collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges. This is needed to assess mitigation progress and inform emission targets under the Paris Agreement. Currently, ho...
Article
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We review consumer-side interventions and their effectiveness to support a transition to healthier and more environmentally sustainable diets and identify taxes/subsidies as relevant instruments. To quantify the scope of necessary tax levels to achieve dietary recommendations on EU average, we apply three established economic models. Our business-a...
Preprint
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This paper investigates how the short-lived character of methane could have important implications for the design of global climate change mitigation policies in agriculture, sector which is often seen to have a limited contribution to a net-zero carbon economy. Motivated by the renewed attention for the short-term versus long-term warming effects...
Article
Concerns regarding the impact of climate change, food price volatility, and weather uncertainty have motivated users of simulation models to consider uncertainty in their simulations. One way to do this is to integrate uncertainty components in the model equations, thus turning the model into a problem of numerical integration. Most of these proble...
Article
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Even though enormous expectations for greenhouse gas mitigation in the land use sector exist at the same time worries about potential implications for sustainable development have been raised as many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are closely tied to developments in the sector. Here we assess the implications of achieving selected key SDG ind...
Article
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Critical imbalances and threshold exceedances can trigger a disruption in a network of interdependent systems. An insignificant-at-first-glance shock can induce systemic risks with cascading catastrophic impacts. Systemic risks challenge traditional risk assessment and management approaches. These risks are shaped by systemic interactions, risk exp...
Article
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Grasslands absorb and release carbon dioxide (CO2), emit methane (CH4) from grazinglivestock, and emit nitrous oxide (N2O) from soils. Little is known about how thefluxesof these three greenhouse gases, from managed and natural grasslands worldwide, havecontributed to past climate change, or the roles of managed pastures versus natural grass-lands....
Preprint
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Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use (AFOLU) are thought to play a vital role in long-term GHG emissions reduction, especially for their importance in non-CO2 emissions, bioenergy supply and carbon sequestration realized by afforestation. Several studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation on food security,...
Preprint
Allowing delayed climate mitigation actions and overshoot of temperature targets requires large scale negative carbon emissions that may induce adverse side-effects on land, food and ecosystems in the second half of this century. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without net negative emissions inevitably needs the implementation of early and quick e...
Article
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Previous studies have projected a significant role for bioenergy in decarbonizing the global economy and helping realize international climate goals such as limiting global average warming to 2 ˚C or 1.5 ˚C. However, with substantial variability in bioenergy results and significant concerns about potential environmental and social implications, gre...
Article
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Increasing population, change in consumption habits, and climate change will likely increase the competition for freshwater resources in the future. Exploring ways to improve water productivity especially in food and livestock systems is important for tackling the future water challenge. Here we combine detailed data on feed use and livestock produ...
Article
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Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity³; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge⁴. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and bi...
Article
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International trade enables us to exploit regional differences in climate change impacts and is increasingly regarded as a potential adaptation mechanism. Here, we focus on hunger reduction through international trade under alternative trade scenarios for a wide range of climate futures. Under the current level of trade integration, climate change...
Article
Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated asse...
Article
Global economic models have been increasingly used to project food and agricultural developments for long term-time horizons, but food security aspects have often been limited to food availability projections. In this paper, we propose a broader framework to explore the future of food and nutrition security with a focus on food availability, food a...
Article
Brazilian agricultural production provides a significant fraction of the food consumed globally, with the country among the top exporters of soybeans, sugar, and beef. However, current advances in Brazilian agriculture can be directly impacted by climate change and resulting biophysical effects. Here, we quantify these impacts until 2050 using GLOB...
Article
Future technologies and systemic innovation are critical for the profound transformation the food system needs. These innovations range from food production, land use and emissions, all the way to improved diets and waste management. Here, we identify these technologies, assess their readiness and propose eight action points that could accelerate t...
Preprint
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Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-us...
Article
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Most scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) that project greenhouse gas emissions include the use of bioenergy as a means to reduce CO2 emissions or even to achieve negative emissions (together with CCS – carbon capture and storage). The potential amount of CO2 that can be removed from the atmosphere depends, among others, on the yields...
Article
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Land-use change is a direct driver of biodiversity and carbon storage loss. Projections of future land use often include notable expansion of cropland areas in response to changes in climate and food demand, although there are large uncertainties in results between models and scenarios. This study examines these uncertainties by comparing three dif...
Article
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An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Article
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Pasturelands are globally extensive, sensitive to climate, and support livestock production systems that provide an essential source of food in many parts of the world. In this paper, we integrate information from remote sensing, global climate, and land use databases to improve understanding of the resilience and resistance of this ecologically vu...
Article
ABSTRACT In this study we investigate the effects of climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development on global forest resources use. The analysis is based on the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), which is a recursive dynamic land-use model. Climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development are included in the model as exog...
Article
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Increasing human demands for water, energy, food and materials, are expected to accentuate resource supply challenges over the coming decades. Experience suggests that long-term strategies for a single sector could yield both trade-offs and synergies for other sectors. Thus, long-term transition pathways for linked resource systems should be inform...
Article
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The Paris Agreement introduced an ambitious goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Here we combine a review of modelled pathways and literature on mitigation strategies, and develop a land-sector roadmap of priority measures and regions that can help to achieve the 1.5 °C temperature goal. Transforming the land sector and d...
Article
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Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world's entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multip...
Article
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Background: In 2018, the European Union (EU) adopted Regulation 2018/841, which sets the accounting rules for the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector for the period 2021-2030. This regulation is part of the EU's commitments to comply with the Paris Agreement. According to the new regulation, emissions and removals for managed fo...
Article
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Ending hunger is a Sustainable Development Goal of the UN. However, feeding a growing world population by increasing food production without implementing more sustainable consumption will threaten the environment. We explore alternative hunger eradication scenarios that do not compromise environmental protection. We find that an economy-growth-orie...
Preprint
Full-text available
Most scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that project greenhouse gas emissions include the use of bioenergy as a means to reduce CO2 emissions or even to achieving negative emissions (together with CCS). The potential amount of CO2 that can be removed from the atmosphere depends, among others, on the yields of bioenergy crops, the la...
Article
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Climate change mitigation policies for the land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector are commonly assessed based on marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) derived from optimization models or engineering approaches. Yet, little is known about the space of validity of MACCs and how they are influenced by changes in main underlying driver...
Article
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Accurate knowledge of 13C isotopic signature (δ13C) of methane from each source is crucial for separating biogenic, fossil fuel and pyrogenic emissions in bottom-up and top-down methane budget. Livestock production is the largest anthropogenic source in the global methane budget, mostly from enteric fermentation of domestic ruminants. However, the...