Bigger and Different: Understanding the role of high-speed rail as a development catalyst in China’s emerging supercities

Abstract

The development of high-speed rail (HSR) is transforming the landscape of China by enabling new forms of urban and regional expansion. Some of these spatial and economic effects mirror past experience with HSR infrastructure in Japan and Western Europe. But the scale of China’s HSR infrastructure and its role in providing that country’s intercity mobility are sufficiently greater than previous HSR development that new spatial effects can be expected. This paper takes the first step in explaining this transformation by creating an analytical framework to differentiate three modes of spatial development that can be associated with distinct configurations of HSR operation in China. An initial assessment of these transportation development genres is offered, and an agenda for future research into the catalytic role of HSR in China’s development of supercities with more than 130 million people is presented.

Full text

Bigger and Different: Understanding the role of high-speed rail as a development catalyst
in China’s emerging supercities
Paper for submission to the Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
Submission Date: 1 August 2015
Words: 3,512 words + 2 figures = 4,012 words equivalent
No. of Figures and Tables: 2
Corresponding Author: Anthony Perl
Prof. Qiyan Wu
Geography Department
Nanjing Normal University
Nanjing, 210023, China
Email: chiyanwu@gmail.com
Prof. Anthony Perl
Urban Studies Program
Simon Fraser University
2124 - 515 West Hastings Street
Vancouver, BC V6B 5K3 Canada
Telephone: 778 782 7887
FAX: 778 782 5297
Email: aperl@sfu.ca
Mr. Jingwei Sun
Jiangsu Institute of Urban Planning and Design
Nanjing, 210036, China

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ABSTRACT
High-speed rail development is transforming the landscape of China by enabling new
forms of urban and regional development. Some of these spatial and economic effects
reflect past experience with HSR infrastructure in Japan and Western Europe. But the
scale of China’s HSR infrastructure, and its role in that country’s intercity
transportation network is sufficiently different from global experience that new spatial
dynamics are likely to be emerging. This paper takes the first step in understanding
this transformation by creating an analytical framework to differentiate three different
modes of spatial development that can be associated with distinct configurations of
HSR operation in China. An initial assessment of these transportation development
genres is offered, and an agenda for future research into the catalytic role of HSR in
China’s development of supercities of over 100 million population is presented.

3
1. Introduction 1
2 Over the past half century, high-speed rail (HSR) has demonstrated the ability to 3
restructure intercity mobility and reshape urban space in Japan and across Western 4
Europe. These changes were great enough to be classified a “transport revolution” by 5
Gilbert and Perl (2010) and were also considered the launch of the “second railway 6
age” by Banister and Hall (1993). But we have seen most ambitious pursuit of HSR to 7
date in the People’s Republic of China. Since 2007, China has built more HSR than 8
the rest of the world combined, and has taken this transport mode to the threshold of a 9
new scale of mass transportation. (Vickerman, 1997; Campos and De Rus, 2009) 10
While HSR’s development was facilitated by an environmental turn in transport 11
policy since the 1980s (Åkerman,2011; Dunlap and Mertig, 2014; Chang and Kendall, 12
2011), HSR planning and policy was also driven by an expanding set of goals that 13
built upon the success of prior efforts. Perl & Goetz (2015) introduce a framework to 14
explore three increasingly ambitious models of HSR strategy, and Van Wee et al., 15
(2003), suggests that some of HSR’s most important effects on society will occur 16
through the environmental impacts from the spatial influence that HSR and urban and 17
regional development. This paper develops an analysis that is based upon both of 18
these insights by exploring the role of HSR in restructuring urban and regional 19
development in China. 20
21
China offers world’s best opportunity to study the interaction of rapid urbanization 22
and rapid HSR development. (Gutiérrez, 2001; Martin, 1997; Coto-Millán et al.,2007; 23
Kim, 2000; Levinson, 2012). Chinese HSR has been shown to exert a pivotal impact 24
on local development around stations, echoing global experience elsewhere (Yin et 25
al., 2015; Garmendia, et al.,2011; Monzón, et al.,2013). There is also evidence that 26
HSR infrastructure can influence regional development patterns (Blum, et al., 1997). 27
But it is increasingly apparent that the scale of development impacts in China has 28
grown along with the increased ambition of the national HSR network strategy (Wang 29
et al.,2013). It is now time to consider how the regional development effects of HSR 30
could evolve once the network grows both beyond an exclusive corridor, and beyond 31
a hybrid network of inter-connected corridors, to become a mainstay of a large 32
nation’s domestic transportation network. 33
34

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The scale of China’s HSR network, depicted in Figure 1, is in a class by itself, as has 35
been widely acknowledged by transportation researchers, regional scientists, and 36
urban geographers. To begin to understand the development effects of the world’s 37
largest HSR network, we construct a hybrid analytical framework that can examine 38
the interaction of mobility and land use along three dimensions. These are: the 39
geographical scale of development effects; the morphology of development patterns 40
(e.g., linear, radial, matrix), and; infrastructure density, expressed as kilometers of 41
HSR per square kilometer. 42
43
Figure 1 about here 44 45
Using these analytical dimensions, we can differentiate three spatial genres within 46
China’s national HSR network. The Corridor Mode of development (CM) resembles 47
the spatial effects that have been identified in HSR corridors linking megacities such 48
as the original Shinkansen (Tokyo – Osaka). The Monocentric-Radial Mode of 49
development (MRM) can be seen in places where there is a disproportionately large 50
financial and/or political center linked to smaller cities by more than one HSR 51
corridor radiating out from it. France’s train a grand vitesse (TGV) network is 52
centered on Paris, and the HSR lines radiating from it to the north, south, east and 53
west illustrate this development pattern. And the Multicore-Network Mode (MNM) 54
of development represents the most distinctive spatial dynamic that is being fostered 55
by China’s HSR infrastructure. We present a detailed articulation of these 56
development modes in the next section. 57
58
59
2. Exploring three spatial development modes enabled by creation of China’s 60 HSR network 61 62
China’s HSR network is large enough that no single attribute or impact will 63
encompass its effects on space and mobility. In Figure 2, we illustrate three genres of 64
spatial dynamics that can be identified across China’s HSR network. And in the 65
discussion that follows, we explore how they are initially presenting their effects and 66
how to go about understanding the impacts over time. 67
68
2.1 Corridor Mode (CM) 69

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70
As well elaborated in the literature, CM development is driven by an exclusive right-71
of-way to serve a corridor of 480 – 560 km anchored by megacities at both ends, and 72
often with other major enroute cities (Perl and Goetz, 2015; Hsu and Chung, 1997). 73
The Tokaido Shinkansen presents the archetypical example of CM development. Data 74
from Japan have demonstrated the impetus to commercial development and business 75
activity at the nodes along such a corridor. Business development is stimulated by the 76
time savings and efficiency offered by adding HSR into the mobility mix (Willigers et 77
al., 2007; Albalate and Bel, 2012; de Rus, 2008). Modal shift to HSR often reduces 78
regional trips made through the airports and on highways along the corridor, which 79
can enhance the efficiency of the overall transportation system (Behrens and Pels, 80
2012; Fu et al.,2012). The enhanced connection between cities along a HSR corridor 81
is an important driver of economic synergy among firms that agglomerate into 82
sectoral clusters (Porter, 1990; Krugman, 1991). 83
84
China’s CM development can be found in at least two areas. The Harbin to Dalian 85
HSR corridor, which covers 921 km and connects 23 stations and the Lanzhou – 86
Urumchi corridor which extends 1,776 km and connects 31 stations both exemplify 87
the CM development pattern that is being experienced in particular subsets of China’s 88
HSR network. These corridors operate with shared use by both conventional and 89
high-speed passenger trains and freight service operated along parts of their route. 90
The corridors begin and end in major population centers (e.g., Harbin has a population 91
of 3.48 million; Dalian has 3.24 million; Lanzhou’s population is 2.08 million, and 92
Urumqi has 1.75 million). Travel patterns reveal a preponderance of trips for business 93
and work between these terminus cities to small and medium sized cities along the 94
corridor. These corridors do cover long distances with very light intermediate traffic. 95
This is reflected in the relatively low density of HSR infrastructure. The Harbin-96
Dalian corridor has a density of 1.14 km/km
2
, while between Lanzhou and Urumqui, 97
density drops to 0.63 km/km
2
, 98
99 Along these two corridors, HSR infrastructure appears to be accelerating employment 100
growth at the endpoints by facilitating daily commuting from smaller enroute cities. 101
In the heart (i.e., centre) of these corridors, there has been out-migration, as HSR 102
enables relocation to larger cities where daily commuting to the endpoints becomes 103

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feasible and occasional travel back to the heartland is also facilitated. This results in a 104
social and spatial polarization of development- the well-known core-periphery effect. 105
These uneven development effects are even more pronounced for communities not 106
served by the HSR (i.e., no stop along the corridor). While these trends are still 107
unfolding, detailed analysis of economic and demographic data will be needed to 108
reveal whether China’s CM development continues to polarize the future of 109
communities along its most traditional HSR corridors. 110
111
2.2 Monocentric - Radial Mode (MRM) 112
113
Monocentric radial development can be found when more than one HSR corridor 114
converges on a single megacity, usually a financial and/or political center. The 115
monocentric development pattern long predated HSR, but the concentration of 116
additional mobility from HSR can intensify the effects of this development pattern. 117
Paris presents a clear example of MRM development, with HSR enabling same day 118
roundtrip travel from every other major city in France. This connectivity reinforces 119
the centrality of Paris as a city where important business and political deliberations 120
occur and where people need to be to participate in them. 121
122
China has five MRM zones. 1,900 kilometers of HSR are centered on Zhengzhou. 123
1,725 kilometers of HSR converge at Wuhan. 1,400 km of HSR come together at 124
Xi'an. 2,900 kilometers of HSR merge in Guangzhou. And HSR routes totaling 125
2,600 kilometers connect at Guiyang. These HSR hubs all operate with shared use 126
infrastructure, supporting conventional and high-speed passenger trains as well as 127
freight service. The HSR hub cities each have four or more lines extending in 128
different directions. The density of HSR in MRM development areas is notably 129
higher than in the CM areas. For the zone radiating from Zhengzhou, infrastructure 130
density is 5.9 km/km
2
. The Wuhan MRM zone’s infrastructure density is 7.5 km/km
2
. 131
In Xi'an’s MRM, HSR infrastructure density is 2.6 km/km
2
. Guangzhou has a HSR 132
infrastructure density of 5.7 km/km
2
and Guiyang’s density is 5.8 km/kms. 133
134
Future research will be needed to explore whether the development effects on these 135
HSR hubs parallel those that occurred in monocentric radial centers outside China, 136
such as Paris. Researchers will need to examine the degree to which new mobility by 137

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HSR stimulates manufacturing and service sector growth along with migration to the 138
HSR hub, while being attentive for signs of decline in cities not served by HSR. 139
Differential rates of business investment and land value appreciation should be 140
examined. Evidence of satellite city formation along HSR radial lines – either 141
through the transformation of some cities into commuter suburbs, or the creation of 142
new cities, will need to be investigated. 143
144
If these patterns are replicated, or perhaps magnified, then the economic 145
intensification of China’s five HSR hubs should grow faster than before the new 146
infrastructure became operational and the economic and political activity of the 147
communities along the radial HSR lines should become even more focused on these 148
hub cities. The question of whether increased travel along China’s monocentric radial 149
corridors will create economic synergy that spurs new development, or leads to a 150
zero-sum redistribution of activity needs to be explored. 151
152
2.3 Multicore Network Mode (MNM) 153
Around some of China’s largest urban centres, such as Beijing, Shanghai and 154
Chongquing the density of HSR service and the pace of regional development around 155
them have created a new pattern of spatial dynamics that has not yet been seen in 156
regional development, at least not on the scale that HSR infrastructure is enabling. 157
We label this development dynamic the Multicore Network Mode (MNM) and it can 158
be found in three rapidly growing regions: the Beijing-Tianjin area; the Shanghai-159
Nanjing-Hangzhou area, and; the Chongqing-Chengdu area. HSR operates over fully 160
dedicated infrastructure in these regions, and train services are used for daily 161
commuting in the way that metros and regional rail systems function in other 162
metropolitan regions. The infrastructure density to support this form of regional 163
access is much higher than that found in other development modes. The Yangtze 164
Delta MNM has China’s highest HSR infrastructure at 29.1 km/km2. 165
166
This configuration of HSR infrastructure creates a daily urban field of activity that is 167
at least double the size of contemporary models that were designed around the 168
distance an automobile could travel within one hour (Plane, 1981; Friedmann and 169
Miller, 1965; Nielsen, et al.,2008; Modarres, 2011; Ahlfeldt and Feddersen, 2010). 170
Zhang (quoted in Johnson, 2015) notes that Chinese urban planners who were trained 171

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in the United States were taught that the maximum dimensions of an urban region 172
could be 60 miles from the center, since that was the distance automobiles could 173
travel in one hour. But when HSR moves people at 150 to 185 miles per hour, the 174
scale of the urban region can triple and planners are now working to develop an 175
82,000 square mile “supercity” known as Jing-Jin-Ji (Johnson, 2015). This region 176
corresponds to the MNM area around Beijing in Figure 2, and could have 130 million 177
residents within a decade. HSR connections between Beijing, Tanjin, and Hebei 178
province would enable travel between the region’s multiple cores in under an hour, 179
just as the private car did at 60 miles distance in urban spaces that were based on 180
automotive technology. 181
182 The effects of HSR on China’s supercity developments like Jing-Jin-Ji remain to be 183
seen as these regions surpass 100 million population and develop economically in the 184
years ahead. If the HSR infrastructure is used for urban and regional mobility in the 185
way that automobile travel shaped American metropolitan development in the 20
th
186
century, researchers will have much to discover about the resulting new spatial 187
dynamics. Economic integration on an enormous scale could produce similarly huge 188
growth opportunities. The urban hierarchy that is deepened by the MRM could be 189
eclipsed by a fusion among primate and large cities in the new supercity region. 190
Around Shanghai, Nantong, Suzhou, and Jiaxing could become neighborhoods of a 191
supercity in the way that suburban towns get integrated into urban regions by 192
expressway infrastructure. This is only possible due to the quantum leap in speed 193
offered HSR travel. 194
195 3. Conclusion: How to learn from the regional restructuring and spatial 196 innovations emerging from China’s HSR network 197
It should come as no surprise that the world’s largest HSR network will generate new 198
and different effects on land use and urban development. Some of the impacts 199
already apparent in China’s HSR network resemble those that have been experienced 200
elsewhere in the world following the introduction of HSR. Exclusive corridors 201
demonstrate mobility and development effects that have been seen in places where a 202
single corridor has changed modal share between the cities it connects. Whether 203
China’s CM development dynamic will simply reflect what has been seen in Japan or 204
Korea or Taiwan remains to be seen. Detailed comparison of economic and land 205

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development trends between China’s two CM HSR regions and analogous corridors 206
in other places could yield rich insights into the extent to which China’s rapid 207
urbanization and intensive infrastructure development might take CM development 208
beyond what has been experienced elsewhere. 209
210
Similarly, comparative analysis of mobility and land development in China’s 211
monocentric-radial HSR zones (MRM) can reveal the degree to which HSR’s 212
predominance over other intercity travel modes could influence clustering of 213
economic activity, and associated spatial dynamics. As with the Corridor mode of 214
regional development, it remains to be seen whether China’s experience will reflect 215
more of what has occurred in other places, or whether there will be new mobility 216
effects that also emerge over time. 217
218
The regional development dynamic where HSR is entering uncharted territory can be 219
found in the Multicore Network Mode (MNM) areas that appear poised to pursue the 220
creation of 21
st
century supercities. Such agglomerations would have over 100 221
million inhabitants distributed across multiple megacities and even more satellite 222
cities. Multiple megacities up to 150 miles apart would be connected by HSR, 223
enabling the one hour travel time that typically shapes urban commuter sheds. These 224
supercities would be home to more than double the population of North America’s 225
largest regional conurbation, the U.S. Northeast Corridor, with a population of over 226
55 million. China’s MNM supported supercities would be around triple the size of 227
the Tokyo metropolitan region’s 37 million population, and four times larger than 228
Europe’s Benelux region at 28 million population. With such an unprecedented scale 229
of regional population and integrated economic and social activity, the supercity’s 230
development dynamics are quite likely to break new ground in physical design and 231
socio-economic organization. And while HSR may hold the key that unlocks the 232
possibility of attempting such an extreme scale of metropolitan development, it may 233
be affected by such a massive integration of population and economic activity. Just as 234
England’s Industrial Revolution created new spatial and economic drivers that helped 235
to shape the world’s first wave of railway development, China’s invention of the 236
supercity will create a new mobility structure which transforms HSR in the 21
st
237
century? Understanding the interaction between transportation and land use in this 238
zone of Multicore Network development is thus a worthwhile research goal.
239

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Figure 1 240 China High-Speed Railway Map 241 242
243 244
245

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Figure 2 246 Spatial Dynamics Enabled by China’s HSR Network 247 248
249 250
251
252
253 4. References 254
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