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The prognostic significance of glomerular infiltrating leukocytes during acute renal allograft rejection
Abstract
Transplant glomerulitis, observed in T cell-mediated and antibody-mediated rejection, is histologically characterized by intracapillary mononuclear cell infiltration. However, the prognostic value of counting various glomerular inflammatory cells during rejection has not been elucidated, which is a key step for the introduction of novel biomarkers in the clinics. We immunophenotyped glomerulitis during episodes of acute rejection in order to investigate their predictive value for transplant outcomes. To do so, we included 57 transplant biopsies of 57 renal transplant recipients with biopsy-proven acute rejection with a median follow-up of 4.2years. We determined average glomerular cell counts for T cells, B cells, Tregs, IL-17(+) cells, neutrophils and macrophages. Logistic and Cox regression was used to investigate the association of glomerular inflammatory cells with response to therapy and graft failure on a population level. We used novel time-dependent ROC curve analyses to investigate the value of glomerular inflammatory cell infiltrates for the prediction of transplant outcomes, applicable to the individual patient. We identified three cell types that were responsible for glomerulitis during rejection: macrophages, T cells and neutrophils. By quantification of glomerular macrophages, an emerging cell type associated with antibody-mediated rejection, we were able to predict the progression towards death-censored graft failure within the first 500days after the initial episode of rejection. With use of novel time-dependent ROC analyses, we propose dynamic sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative predictive values with their corresponding cut-off values for the average amount of glomerular macrophages, depending on what time after rejection death-censored graft failure needs prediction.
... The clinical relevance of glomerular macrophage count (GMC) in kidney biopsies was demonstrated by Sentís et al., who found that the GMC is predictive of death-censored graft failure up to 500 days after biopsy (Sentís et al., 2015). The average time between transplantation and performance of kidney biopsy was 18 days, and therefore no conclusions could be drawn on the relevance of macrophages in chronic inflammation (Sentís et al., 2015). ...
... The clinical relevance of glomerular macrophage count (GMC) in kidney biopsies was demonstrated by Sentís et al., who found that the GMC is predictive of death-censored graft failure up to 500 days after biopsy (Sentís et al., 2015). The average time between transplantation and performance of kidney biopsy was 18 days, and therefore no conclusions could be drawn on the relevance of macrophages in chronic inflammation (Sentís et al., 2015). However, it suggests that the GMC may render valuable information in the chronic phase as macrophages play an important role in chronic inflammation leading to interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (Dang et al., 2012). ...
Since the mid-1980s magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been investigated as a non- or minimally invasive tool to probe kidney allograft function. Despite this long-standing interest, MRI still plays a subordinate role in daily practice of transplantation nephrology. With the introduction of new functional MRI techniques, administration of exogenous gadolinium-based contrast agents has often become unnecessary and true non-invasive assessment of allograft function has become possible. This raises the question why application of MRI in the follow-up of kidney transplantation remains restricted, despite promising results. Current literature on kidney allograft MRI is mainly focused on assessment of (sub) acute kidney injury after transplantation. The aim of this review is to survey whether MRI can provide valuable diagnostic information beyond 1 year after kidney transplantation from a mechanistic point of view. The driving force behind chronic allograft nephropathy is believed to be chronic hypoxia. Based on this, techniques that visualize kidney perfusion and oxygenation, scarring, and parenchymal inflammation deserve special interest. We propose that functional MRI mechanistically provides tools for diagnostic work-up in long-term follow-up of kidney allografts.
... Using CD68, some studies have used a level of <1 compared with >1 in GMI and showed a difference in graft function14 and graft loss.28 Later studies have shown that GMI levels >3 were only seen in ABMR and that a GMI > 1.89 correlated with microvascular inflammation, a cardinal sign of ABMR.30 In a sub-analysis of their larger study,Lefaucheur et al. 16 showed that patients with ABMR and worse outcome had an averageThe present large study demonstrates that indication biopsies with normal biopsy findings have a mean GMI of 1.3, while patients with GMI ≥ 1.9 have impaired graft survival. ...
Background:
Macrophages in renal transplants have been shown to help mediate antibody-mediated rejection and are associated with impaired renal function. We calculated the glomerular macrophage index (GMI) in a large transplant biopsy cohort, studied its quantity in different diagnostic groups, to clarify its possible impact on graft survival.
Methods:
GMI, defined as the mean number of macrophages in ten glomeruli, was prospectively quantified in 1440 renal transplant biopsies over a 10-year period. The main histopathological diagnoses were grouped into eight disease entities, and GMI was compared to normal transplant biopsies as the reference group. The impact of GMI on graft survival was analyzed.
Results:
GMI was highest in chronic (mean 9.4) and active (9.7) antibody mediated rejections (ABMR), mixed rejections (7.6), and recurrent or de novo glomerulonephritis (7.5) and differed significantly from normal transplants (1.3) in almost all diagnostic groups. Hazard ratios for graft loss were significantly increased for all biopsies with GMI ≥1.9 compared to GMI <0.5 (reference group) in an adjusted Cox regression model and increased with higher GMI levels. Biopsies with GMI ≥ 4.6 had <60% 10-year graft-survival, compared to >80% with GMI ≤ 1.8.
Conclusion:
GMI levels were predictive of graft loss independent of histological diagnoses and may guide clinicians to decide follow-up and therapy. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
... 16,[26][27][28] Higher inflammatory microvascular infiltrates are strongly associated with ABMR; infiltrating cells are predominantly CD3 þ lymphocytes. 13,29,30 Lymphocytes are capable of direct allorecognition of donor HLA antigens, resulting in activation, differentiation, and coordination of anti-donor responses. The Th1 subset has been associated with transplant glomerulopathy, 31 and intragraft Th17 are associated with shorter graft survival. ...
Development of donor-specific antibodies is associated with reduced allograft survival in renal transplantation. Recent clinical studies highlight the prevalence of human leukocyte antigen (HLA)–DQ antibodies amongst de novo donor-specific antibodies (DSAs), yet the specific contribution of these DSAs to rejection has not been examined. Antibody-mediated rejection primarily targets the microvasculature, so this study explored how patient HLA-DQ alloantibodies can modulate endothelial activation and so immunoregulation. HLA-DQ antibodies phosphorylated Akt and S6 kinase in microvascular endothelial cells. This activation prior to culture with alloreactive lymphocytes increased IL-6 and RANTES secretion. The antibody-mediated upregulation of IL-6 was indeed Akt-dependent. The binding of HLA-DQ antibodies to endothelial cells selectively reduced T cell alloproliferation and FoxP3high Treg differentiation. In clinical studies, detection of HLA-DQ DSAs with other DSAs is associated with worse graft survival than either alone. Endothelial cells stimulated with HLA-DR and HLA-DQ antibodies showed a synergistic increase in pro-inflammatory cytokine secretion and a decrease in Treg expansion. HLA-DQ antibodies strongly promote pro-inflammatory responses in isolation and in combination with other HLA antibodies. Thus, our data give new insights into the pathogenicity of HLA-DQ DSAs.
... Interestingly, acute antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) and cABMR are characterized among others by accumulation of monocyte-macrophage cells. Kidney graft-infiltrating macrophages have been described to be a predictor of death-censored graft failure (11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19)(20)(21). Macrophages are present in both acute ABMR and acute cellular rejection (ACR) of solid organ transplants (21,22). ...
There is an unmet clinical need for immunotherapeutic strategies that specifically target the active immune cells participating in the process of rejection after solid organ transplantation. The monocyte–macrophage cell lineage is increasingly recognized as a major player in acute and chronic allograft immunopathology. The dominant presence of cells of this lineage in rejecting allograft tissue is associated with worse graft function and survival. Monocytes and macrophages contribute to alloimmunity via diverse pathways: antigen processing and presentation, costimulation, pro-inflammatory cytokine production, and tissue repair. Cross talk with other recipient immune competent cells and donor endothelial cells leads to amplification of inflammation and a cytolytic response in the graft. Surprisingly, little is known about therapeutic manipulation of the function of cells of the monocyte–macrophage lineage in transplantation by immunosuppressive agents. Although not primarily designed to target monocyte–macrophage lineage cells, multiple categories of currently prescribed immunosuppressive drugs, such as mycophenolate mofetil, mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors, and calcineurin inhibitors, do have limited inhibitory effects. These effects include diminishing the degree of cytokine production, thereby blocking costimulation and inhibiting the migration of monocytes to the site of rejection. Outside the field of transplantation, some clinical studies have shown that the monoclonal antibodies canakinumab, tocilizumab, and infliximab are effective in inhibiting monocyte functions. Indirect effects have also been shown for simvastatin, a lipid lowering drug, and bromodomain and extra-terminal motif inhibitors that reduce the cytokine production by monocytes–macrophages in patients with diabetes mellitus and rheumatoid arthritis. To date, detailed knowledge concerning the origin, the developmental requirements, and functions of diverse specialized monocyte–macrophage subsets justifies research for therapeutic manipulation. Here, we will discuss the effects of currently prescribed immunosuppressive drugs on monocyte/macrophage features and the future challenges.
Histologic separation of injury, T cell–mediated rejection, or antibody-mediated rejection in allograft heart biopsies is difficult. A critical review of publications was performed to evaluate the caveats of using molecular diagnostics (MDX) to distinguish between these entities. Typically, only 1 to 2 fragments of unknown histologic appearance are evaluated. Archetype and molecular classifier analyses use gene lists derived from histologic labels and associated reproducibility issues influence the accuracy of the derived MDX classes. Archetypes A1, A2, and A3 archetypes created by bioinformatics were renamed no rejection, T cell–mediated rejection, and antibody-mediated rejection despite as little as 40% concordance with histologic diagnoses and overlapping archetype scores. Additional archetypes S4 and minor injury were created using arbitrary cutoffs based on visual examination of principal component analysis plots. Therapeutic implications of the numerous discrepancies with histology remain unexplored. Many MDX-derived observations are ambiguous and open to alternate logical explanations. Better molecular methods and more rigorous validation studies are needed to advance the field. Ideally, these methods should analyze all available biopsy fragments to minimize sampling issues. It is also desirable to incorporate spatial transcriptomics into the workflow, so that gene expression data can be directly compared with the underlying histology lesions.
Kidney transplantation is the preferred treatment for end-stage renal failure, but the limited availability of donors and the risk of immune rejection pose significant challenges. Early detection of acute renal rejection is a critical step to increasing the lifespan of the transplanted kidney. Investigating the clinical, genetic, and histopathological markers correlated to acute renal rejection, as well as finding noninvasive markers for early detection, is urgently needed. It is also crucial to identify which markers are associated with different types of acute renal rejection to manage treatment effectively. This short review summarizes recent studies that investigated various markers, including genomics, histopathology, and clinical markers, to differentiate between different types of acute kidney rejection. Our review identifies the markers that can aid in the early detection of acute renal rejection, potentially leading to better treatment and prognosis for renal-transplant patients.
The presence of occlusion/near-occlusion of glomerular capillaries was recently added to the existing definition of glomerulitis (g). We retrospectively re-evaluated 135 renal allograft biopsies regarding g to ensure no antibody-damaged grafts were missed. Previous and revised g scores (pg and rg, respectively) were compared for clinicopathologic correlations. The g score did not change in 100 (74.1%) biopsies. Thirty-five (25.9%) biopsies were changed to a lower score. Sensitivity and specificity of pg and rg for the presence of donor specific antibodies (DSA) were 76% vs. 58%, and 70% vs. 79%, respectively. Pg score indicated graft loss with 65% sensitivity and 63% specificity, whereas rg showed 46% sensitivity and 71% specificity. Area under curve (AUC) values in ROC analysis for DSA and graft loss were as follows: pg, 0.773; rg, 0.693 and pg, 0.635; rg, 0.577, respectively. A comparison of the two AUC values revealed a significant difference between pg and rg only for DSA (p=0.0076). Pg and post-transplant time of biopsy independently predicted graft loss whereas rg did not. In conclusion, revised g scores showed lesser sensitivity but higher specificity for DSA and graft loss. Recent definition of g missed antibody-mediated rejection in few cases and it was not an independent predictor for graft loss. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Animal models of antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) may provide important evidence supporting proof of concept. We elicited donor-specific antibodies (DSA) by transfusion of donor blood (Brown Norway RT1n) into a complete mismatch recipient (Lewis RT1l) 3 weeks prior to kidney transplantation. Sensitized recipients had increased anti-donor splenocyte IgG1, IgG2b and IgG2c DSA 1 week after transplantation. Histopathology was consistent with ABMR characterized by diffuse peritubular capillary C4d and moderate microvascular inflammation with peritubular capillaritis + glomerulitis > 2. Immunofluorescence studies of kidney allograft tissue demonstrated a greater CD68/CD3 ratio in sensitized animals, primarily of the M1 (pro-inflammatory) phenotype, consistent with cytokine gene analyses that demonstrated a predominant T helper (TH)1 (interferon-γ, IL-2) profile. Immunoblot analyses confirmed the activation of the M1 macrophage phenotype as interferon regulatory factor 5, inducible nitric oxide synthase and phagocytic NADPH oxidase 2 were significantly up-regulated. Clinical biopsy samples in sensitized patients with acute ABMR confirmed the dominance of M1 macrophage phenotype in humans. Despite the absence of tubulitis, we were unable to exclude the effects of T cell–mediated rejection. These studies suggest that M1 macrophages and TH1 cytokines play an important role in the pathogenesis of acute mixed rejection in sensitized allograft recipients.
The 12th Banff Conference on Allograft Pathology was held in Comandatuba, Brazil, from August 19-23, 2013, and was preceded by a 2-day Latin American Symposium on Transplant Immunobiology and Immunopathology. The meeting was highlighted by the presentation of the findings of several working groups formed at the 2009 and 2011 Banff meetings to: (1) establish consensus criteria for diagnosing antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) in the presence and absence of detectable C4d deposition; (2) develop consensus definitions and thresholds for glomerulitis (g score) and chronic glomerulopathy (cg score), associated with improved inter-observer agreement and correlation with clinical, molecular and serological data; (3) determine whether isolated lesions of intimal arteritis ("isolated v") represent acute rejection similar to intimal arteritis in the presence of tubulointerstitial inflammation; (4) compare different methodologies for evaluating interstitial fibrosis and for performing/evaluating implantation biopsies of renal allografts with regard to reproducibility and prediction of subsequent graft function; and (5) define clinically and prognostically significant morphologic criteria for subclassifying polyoma virus nephropathy. The key outcome of the 2013 conference is defining criteria for diagnosis of C4d-negative ABMR and respective modification of the Banff classification. In addition, three new Banff Working Groups were initiated.
Little is known regarding the molecular phenotype of kidneys with AKI because biopsies are performed infrequently. However, all kidney transplants experience acute injury, making early kidney transplants an excellent model of acute injury, provided the absence of rejection, because donor kidneys should not have CKD, post-transplant biopsies occur relatively frequently, and follow-up is excellent typically. Here, we used histopathology and microarrays to compare indication biopsies from 26 transplants with acute injury with 11 pristine protocol biopsies of stable transplants. Kidneys with acute injury showed increased expression of 394 transcripts associated with the repair response to injury, including many epithelium-like injury molecules tissue, remodeling molecules, and inflammation molecules. Many other genes also predicted the phenotype, including the acute injury biomarkers HAVCR1 and IL18. Pathway analysis of the injury-repair transcripts revealed similarities to cancer, development, and cell movement. The injury-repair transcript score in kidneys with acute injury correlated with reduced graft function, future renal recovery, brain death, and need for dialysis, but not with future graft loss. In contrast, histologic features of acute tubular injury did not correlate with function or with the molecular changes. Thus, the transcripts associated with repair of injury suggest a massive coordinated response of the kidney parenchyma to acute injury, providing both an objective measure for assessing the severity of injury in kidney biopsies and validation for many biomarkers of AKI.
This study analyzes the incidence and course of antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) in a cohort of 237 renal transplant patients followed for 30 +/- 20 months. Among these, 32 patients were considered to be at risk for AMR and received intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg), either as preconditioning (Group A, n = 18) or at the time of transplant (Group B, n = 14). The prevalence of AMR was 27.8% in Group A, 57.1% in Group B and 3.9% in the remainder of the population. Although graft loss remains greater among AMR than for acute cellular rejection (ACR) or the overall transplant population, we have identified a good outcome group (GFR > 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) (n = 13), whose renal function at the end of follow-up was comparable to that of the general transplant population. The factors associated with bad outcome are: (1) immunologic: presence and/or persistence of donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies post-transplantation and (2) histologic: neutrophilic glomerulitis, peritubular capillary dilatation with neutrophil infiltrates and interstitial edema at the time of first biopsy; and at the time of late biopsy (3-6 months): lesions of vascular rejection, and monocyte/macrophage infiltrates in glomeruli and dilated peritubular capillaries. Persistence of C4d does not predict outcome. This study outlines for the first time the immunologic and histologic profiles of AMR patients with poor prognosis.
Transplant glomerulitis is an increasingly recognized lesion in renal transplant biopsies. To develop a refined grading system, we defined glomerulitis by the presence of ≥5 leukocytes/glomerulus and evaluated 111 biopsies using three different grading systems: (i) percentage of glomerular involvement, (ii) peak inflammation in the most severely affected glomerulus and (iii) presence/absence of endocapillary occlusion by inflammatory cells. Endocapillary occlusion had no impact on graft survival, but was associated with increased serum creatinine, proteinuria and subsequent transplant glomerulopathy. Grading based on either percent or peak glomerular involvement correlated with graft failure and peritubular capillaritis. However, the percent glomerular involvement method had the additional advantage of displaying associations with: concurrent proteinuria, focal or diffuse immunoperoxidase peritubular capillary C4d staining, 1-year postbiopsy serum creatinine, subsequent detection of donor-specific antibody and development of transplant glomerulopathy. Patients with >75% glomerular involvement also revealed persistent high-grade glomerulitis on follow-up biopsies despite antirejection treatment. In conclusion, grading of glomerulitis is a meaningful exercise, and a quantification system based on percentage of glomerular involvement shows the most robust associations with clinical parameters and prognosis.
Data-driven approaches to deteriorating kidney transplants, incorporating histologic, molecular and HLA antibody findings, have created a new understanding of transplant pathology and why transplants fail. Transplant dysfunction is best understood in terms of three elements: diseases, the active injury-repair response and the cumulative burden of injury. Progression to failure is mainly attributable to antibody-mediated rejection, nonadherence and glomerular disease. Antibody-mediated rejection usually develops late due to de novo HLA antibodies, particularly anti-class II, and is often C4d negative. Pure treated T cell-mediated rejection does not predispose to graft loss because it responds well, even with endothelialitis, but it may indicate nonadherence. The cumulative burden of injury results in atrophy-fibrosis (nephron loss), arterial fibrous intimal thickening and arteriolar hyalinosis, but these are not progressive without ongoing disease/injury, and do not explain progression. Calcineurin inhibitor toxicity has been overestimated because burden-of-injury lesions invite this default diagnosis when diseases such as antibody-mediated rejection are missed. Disease/injury triggers a stereotyped active injury-repair response, including de-differentiation, cell cycling and apoptosis. The active injury-repair response is the strongest correlate of organ function and future progression to failure, but should always prompt a search for the initiating injury or disease.
We studied the phenotype of late kidney graft failure in a prospective study of unselected kidney transplant biopsies taken for clinical indications. We analyzed histopathology, HLA antibodies and death-censored graft survival in 234 consecutive biopsies from 173 patients, taken 6 days to 31 years posttransplant. Patients with late biopsies (>1 year) frequently displayed donor-specific HLA antibody (particularly class II) and microcirculation changes, including glomerulitis, glomerulopathy, capillaritis, capillary multilayering and C4d staining. Grafts biopsied early rarely failed (1/68), whereas grafts biopsied late often progressed to failure (27/105) within 3 years. T-cell-mediated rejection and its lesions were not associated with an increased risk of failure after biopsy. In multivariable analysis, graft failure correlated with microcirculation inflammation and scarring, but C4d staining was not significant. When microcirculation changes and HLA antibody were used to define antibody-mediated rejection, 17/27 (63%) of late kidney failures after biopsy were attributable to antibody-mediated rejection, but many were C4d negative and missed by current diagnostic criteria. Glomerulonephritis accounted for 6/27 late losses, whereas T-cell-mediated rejection, drug toxicity and unexplained scarring were uncommon. The major cause of late kidney transplant failure is antibody-mediated microcirculation injury, but detection of this phenotype requires new diagnostic criteria.
The Banff classification of acute rejection is based on histologic grades and scores for borderline changes, glomerular, vascular, interstitial and tubular lesions. We reviewed 56 episodes of acute rejection occurring in 44 kidney allograft recipients (30 cadaveric and 14 living donor transplants), comparing Banff classification to degree of reversibility of rejection. Rejection reversal was defined as complete if serum creatinine returned < or = 25% of baseline, partial if creatinine was > 25% to < 75% of baseline, and irreversible if creatinine was > or = 75% of baseline or graft loss occurred. Eight biopsies were classified as borderline (SUM score 1.6 +/- 0.5), 14 grade I (SUM score 3.3 +/- 0.4), 19 grade II (SUM score 4.2 +/- 0.3), and 15 grade III (SUM score 8.5 +/- 0.4). SUM distinguished borderline and grade III rejections, but not grades I and II. Clinically, grade and SUM score correlated with rejection reversal. Complete reversal of rejection occurred in 93% of patients with grade I rejection, while 47% of patients with grade III had irreversible rejection. The mean SUM for complete reversal was 3.9 +/- 0.34 and was different from SUM of partial (6.0 +/- 0.86) and irreversible (8.5 +/- 0.93), P < 0.006. Meanwhile, vascular scores were similar for rejections with complete (0.9 +/- 0.2) or partial (1.0 +/- 0.4) reversal, but significantly higher in those with irreversible rejection (3.0 +/- 0.4, P < 0.000). Likewise, mean scores for tubulitis and interstitial inflammation were significantly higher for irreversible rejection. Resolution of rejection by steroids was correlated to low vascular score (steroid sensitive 0.65 +/- 0.25 vs. steroid resistant 1.42 +/- 0.18, P < 0.01), and low SUM score (steroid sensitive 3.7 +/- 0.5 vs. steroid resistant 5.22 +/- 0.43, P < 0.04). Neither scores for tubulitis nor interstitial cellular inflammation were predictive of steroid sensitivity. These data demonstrate that Banff scoring has clinical relevance in predicting rejection reversal and has implications to first-line therapy of rejection episodes.
Antibody-mediated rejection (AbAR) is increasingly recognized in the renal allograft population, and successful therapeutic regimens have been developed to prevent and treat AbAR, enabling excellent outcomes even in patients highly sensitized to the donor prior to transplant. It has become critical to develop standardized criteria for the pathological diagnosis of AbAR. This article presents international consensus criteria for and classification of AbAR developed based on discussions held at the Sixth Banff Conference on Allograft Pathology in 2001. This classification represents a working formulation, to be revisited as additional data accumulate in this important area of renal transplantation.
The aim of our study was to determine the amount and composition of immune cells within glomeruli and PTCs and its relationship with C4d deposition.
Immunohistochemistry staining for C4d, CD3, CD68, granzyme B and Foxp3 was used for phenotyping and enumerating immune cells within intracapillaries.
C4d staining was present in 26 biopsy specimens (C4d(+)) and negative in 25 specimens (C4d(-)). The total number of infiltrating cells in glomerulus and PTC in C4d(+) was significantly higher than in C4d(-). Although the C4d(+) showed a significantly higher mean number of macrophages per glomerulus and PTC than in C4d(-) group, the C4d(-) showed a higher mean number of T cells per glomerulus and PTC than in C4d(+). Comparing cell counts in diffuse C4d(+) and focal C4d(+) groups, a significant difference of absolute numbers of intracapillary cells could be observed in glomeruli and PTCs. The mean number of macrophages per glomerulus and PTC in diffuse C4d(+) was greater than that of the focal C4d(+), while mean T cells per glomerulus and PTC were less in cases of diffuse C4d(+) than in focal C4d(+). The differences, however, did not achieve statistical significance. Not only glomerular T cells but also PTCs are granzyme B positive T cells totally.
The total number of infiltrating cells in glomeruli and PTC has association with PTC C4d deposition; the infiltrating cells were predominantly macrophages in C4d(+), especially in diffuse C4d(+), whereas the infiltrating cells were predominantly T cells in C4d(-). Glomerular and PTC T cells were cytotoxic phenotype completely.
The area under the time-dependent ROC curve (AUC) may be used to quantify the ability of a marker to predict the onset of a clinical outcome in the future. For survival analysis with competing risks, two alternative definitions of the specificity may be proposed depending of the way to deal with subjects who undergo the competing events. In this work, we propose nonparametric inverse probability of censoring weighting estimators of the AUC corresponding to these two definitions, and we study their asymptotic properties. We derive confidence intervals and test statistics for the equality of the AUCs obtained with two markers measured on the same subjects. A simulation study is performed to investigate the finite sample behaviour of the test and the confidence intervals. The method is applied to the French cohort PAQUID to compare the abilities of two psychometric tests to predict dementia onset in the elderly accounting for death without dementia competing risk. The 'timeROC' R package is provided to make the methodology easily usable. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Background:
Subclinical antibody-mediated allograft rejection (AMR) has been characterized in serial biopsies from presensitized recipients but has not been systematically studied in conventional renal transplants.
Methods:
We evaluated 1101 consecutive kidney transplant biopsies (400 surveillance biopsies [SBx] and 701 for cause biopsies [FCBx]) with concurrent donor-specific antibody (DSA) studies, C4d staining, and ultrastructural examination.
Results:
A comparison of AMR-related features (DSA and DSA class, C4d staining, and microvascular injury) demonstrated that these were qualitatively and quantitatively associated with each other and with graft dysfunction. A major difference between SBx and FCBx was that the complete AMR phenotype was more common in FCBx. Among SBx, 8.5% showed complete or incomplete AMR with predominance of an incomplete phenotype (according to the Banff schema, these were acute AMR [23.5%], chronic active AMR [14.7%], suspicious for acute AMR [41.1%], suspicious for chronic active AMR [2.9%], and only microvascular injury insufficient to consider AMR [17.5%]). Persistence or worsening of AMR in a subsequent biopsy occurred in 38.2% of cases independently of the strength of AMR findings in the first biopsy (e.g., progression to chronic AMR occurred also in cases with suspicious or nondiagnostic findings). Temporal progression from subclinical to clinically evident AMR is consistent with the fact that, overall, the biopsies with incomplete phenotype (DSA±C4d) occurred between 14.52 and 20.86 months, whereas the complete phenotype occurred much later (36.71 months).
Conclusion:
An accurate diagnostic interpretation of the potentially important but incomplete, subclinical, AMR phenotype represents a serious challenge that may impact clinical management.
Interleukin-17 (IL-17) plays an important role in the regulation of cellular and humoral immune responses. Recent studies suggest a role for IL-17 in transplantation. Our study investigated whether quantifying IL-17+ cells in renal transplant biopsies during acute rejection could have additional prognostic value for better stratifying patients at risk for nonresponsiveness to anti-rejection therapy and future graft dysfunction. Forty-nine renal biopsies with acute rejection were double immunostained and quantitatively analyzed for IL-17 and CD3 (IL-17+ T-lymphocytes), tryptase (IL-17+ mast cells) or CD15 (IL-17+ neutrophils). Total IL-17+ cell count correlated with total percentage of inflamed biopsy and estimated GFR during rejection. Most IL-17+ cells were mast cells and neutrophils. We could hardly find any IL-17+ T-lymphocytes. IL-17+ mast cells correlated with interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (IF/TA). None of the IL-17+ cell counts had an additional prognostic value for response to anti-rejection treatment. Multivariate analysis correcting for C4d positivity and time from transplantation to biopsy showed that total IL-17+ cell count independently predicts graft dysfunction at the last follow-up, which was validated in an independent cohort of 48 renal biopsies with acute rejection. We conclude that intragraft IL-17+ cell count during acute allograft rejection could have an additional value for predicting late graft dysfunction.
New markers may improve prediction of diagnostic and prognostic outcomes. We review various measures to quantify the incremental value of markers over standard, readily available characteristics.
Widely used traditional measures include the improvement in model fit or in the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). New measures include the net reclassification index (NRI) and decision-analytic measures, such as the fraction of true-positive classifications penalized for false-positive classifications [net benefit (NB)]. For illustration, we discuss a case study on the presence of residual tumour vs. benign tissue in 544 patients with testicular cancer. We assessed three tumour markers [Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), Human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) and Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH)] for their incremental value over currently standard clinical predictors.
AUC and R(2) values suggested adding continuous LDH and AFP whereas NB only favoured HCG as a potentially promising marker at a clinically defendable decision threshold of 20% risk. The NRI suggested reclassification potential of all three markers.
The improvement in standard discrimination measures, which focus on finding variables that might be promising across all decision thresholds, may not detect the most informative markers at a specific threshold of particular clinical relevance. When a marker is intended to support decision-making, calculation of the improvement in a decision-analytic measure, such as NB, is preferable over an overall judgment as obtained from the AUC in ROC analysis.
In acute renal allograft rejection, T-cell-mediated processes have been generally regarded as dominant. Although there is recent evidence that macrophages play important roles in acute vascular rejection, less is known about the exact proportion of immunocytes in the intimal arteritis of renal allografts with unfavorable outcomes.
By immunohistochemical staining using nine primary antibodies, we classified the proportions of infiltrating immunocytes in intimal arteritis and glomerulitis in five allografts resected because of acute irreversible graft failure.
All five allografts had features of antibody-mediated rejection based on criteria established by the Banff classification. In intimal arteritis, CD3+ T-lymphocytes accounted for 30.6±13.3% of the immunocytes and macrophages for 40.4±9.2%. 45.4% of the T-cells were CD8+ cytotoxic T-cells. Neutrophils were also present but accounted for a relatively low proportion of the cells (8.8±8.6%). B-cells and plasma cells all accounted for <5% of the immunocytes. NK cells were readily detected (4.2±4.2%). When we compared types of arteritis, the CD15+ neutrophils accounted for as many as 27.8±15.1% of immunocytes in V3 vasculitis and only 1.0±1.4% in V2 vasculitis. CD3+ T-lymphocytes accounted for 25.8±7.3% of immunocytes in V3 vasculitis and 41.5±7.9% in V2 vasculitis. In glomerulitis, the immunocytes were mainly macrophages (53.1±9.1%) and neutrophils (34.6±9.9%).
Macrophages and T-lymphocytes accounted for the highest percentage of immunocytes in the intimal arteritis of irreversible renal failure associated with antibody-mediated rejection. 45.4% of the T-cells were CD8+ cytotoxic T-cells. Neutrophils and NK cells were also present in these lesions. The proportion of neutrophils in V3 vasculitis was much higher than in V2 vasculitis. These observations suggest that besides macrophages and T-lymphocytes, neutrophils may also play a role in the more severe arterial lesion. To our knowledge this is the first report of this observation. Macrophages and neutrophils were the main inflammatory cells in the glomerulitis of acute rejection.
Antibody-mediated rejection manifests with glomerular and peritubular capillary inflammation and transplant glomerulopathy (TG). The role of glomerular inflammation (GI) components in the development of TG and their impact on outcome are incompletely understood.
GI was quantified on hematoxylin-eosin, CD3, CD20, and CD68 stains on biopsies from 240 patients with grafts functioning more than or equal to 1 year.
A predominance of CD68+ cells followed by less numerous CD3+ cells was found in TG and glomerulitis. CD68+ cells more than 12 in the most inflamed glomerulus were strongly associated with TG, donor-specific antibody (DSA), and C4d staining. Glomerular CD68+ cells correlated with peritubular capillary multilamellation, and similarly, the Banff g score correlated with light and electron microscopic indexes of chronic microvascular damage. Overall, GI components correlated with the g score, DSA, and peritubular capillary C4d+. The Banff cg 1, 2, and 3 scores showed high levels of GI composed mostly of CD68+ cells, similar to but not higher than cases of g2 and g3 glomerulitis. Glomerular T cells and neutrophils followed similar trends as the predominant macrophages. T-cell-mediated rejection in this cohort did not significantly affect the composition of GI. Prognostically, all types of pronounced GI, g scores, DSA+, C4d+, and capillaropathy were associated with worse prognosis; however, only high level of macrophages was an independent predictor of graft failure.
GI in more than or equal to 1 year grafts is mostly antibody-mediated rejection related, correlates with chronic microvascular damage, and consists predominantly of macrophages. The latter seem to represent a pivotal pathogenetic, diagnostic, and prognostic factor in this setting.
Forkhead box (FOXP3) is considered to be a specific marker for regulatory T cells. The aim of this study was to correlate intragraft FOXP3 at mRNA and cellular levels during renal allograft rejection to response to therapy and late clinical outcome.
Immunostainings and quantitative reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction for FOXP3, CD3, and transforming growth factor (TGF)-beta were performed and results were related to histopathologic and clinical outcome.
A good correlation between immunohistochemical analysis and mRNA levels for both CD3 and FOXP3 was observed. Intragraft FOXP3 was significantly related to tubulitis and interstitial fibrosis. A strong correlation was found between FOXP3 and CD3 mRNA and between FOXP3 and TGF-beta mRNA. No correlation was found between FOXP3 and response to therapy.
In conclusion, intragraft FOXP3 at both cellular and molecular levels parallels T-cell infiltration during acute rejection. FOXP3 does not predict response to antirejection therapy. FOXP3 correlates with renal fibrosis, TGF-beta, and poor late renal outcome.
The role of CD20+ B cells in renal allograft rejection has been reappreciated. Importantly, recent studies suggest a relation between CD20+ B cell aggregates and poorer clinical outcome. In the present study, we attempted to confirm these early reports in a tightly controlled patient population and to differentiate between scattered infiltrates and clusters of B cells.
Fifty-four biopsies from renal transplant recipients with acute rejection were immunostained for CD20, CD3, and C4d. All patients received similar immunosuppressive therapy. Response to therapy was defined as a decrease in serum creatinine level within 2 weeks to 125% or less of the value before the clinically diagnosed episode of allograft rejection. Late clinical outcome was defined in creatinine clearance between 8 and 12 months after the episode of acute rejection or in graft failure.
A significant correlation was observed between interstitial infiltrates of CD20+ cells and CD3+ cells (r=0.720, P<0.001) suggesting that if B-cell infiltrates are present during rejection, they occur with T-cell infiltrates in a concurrent fashion. In contrast to previous reports, no relation was found between the number of CD20+ cells, in aggregates or in a scattered interstitial pattern, and response to conventional therapy. Remarkably, CD3+T cell aggregates did predict a favorable renal outcome.
The present study was undertaken to investigate the inter- and intraobserver variation in use of the scoring system for glomerulitis, vasculitis, interstitial inflammation, tubulitis and arteriolar hyalinosis that is an essential part of the recently proposed Banff classification of renal allograft biopsies. Seventy-seven biopsies done less than 90 days after transplantation were included. The scoring was done blindly by five pathologists on biopsies stained with H&E and PAS. The volume fraction of interstitial inflammation was estimated. Spearman rank correlation coefficient and kappa values were used for the evaluation of reproducibility. The results of both inter- and intraobserver variability showed a good correlation and reasonable kappa values for vasculitis, interstitial inflammatory infiltration, and tubulitis. Less-good correlation was found for glomerulitis and arteriolar hyalinosis. The interobserver kappa score for grading of the rejection severity was 0.40 overall but 0.56 when only presence or absence of acute rejection was considered and 0.66 for presence or absence of vasculitis. Weighted kappa values for interobserver vasculitis score and rejection grading were 0.58 and 0.55, respectively. A strong association existed between the volume fraction of interstitial inflammation and the semiquantitative scoring for interstitial inflammation. In conclusion, the good correlations for the key elements in the grading of the allograft biopsies in the present classification system, confirmed the utility of the defined criteria for grading rejection. More precisely defined criteria or simplification of the scoring system are needed for glomerulitis and arteriolar hyalinosis--parameters not used in the diagnosis of rejection.
Standardization of renal allograft biopsy interpretation is necessary to guide therapy and to establish an objective end point for clinical trials. This manuscript describes a classification, Banff 97, developed by investigators using the Banff Schema and the Collaborative Clinical Trials in Transplantation (CCTT) modification for diagnosis of renal allograft pathology.
Banff 97 grew from an international consensus discussion begun at Banff and continued via the Internet. This schema developed from (a) analysis of data using the Banff classification, (b) publication of and experience with the CCTT modification, (c) international conferences, and (d) data from recent studies on impact of vasculitis on transplant outcome.
Semiquantitative lesion scoring continues to focus on tubulitis and arteritis but includes a minimum threshold for interstitial inflammation. Banff 97 defines "types" of acute/active rejection. Type I is tubulointerstitial rejection without arteritis. Type II is vascular rejection with intimal arteritis, and type III is severe rejection with transmural arterial changes. Biopsies with only mild inflammation are graded as "borderline/suspicious for rejection." Chronic/sclerosing allograft changes are graded based on severity of tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis. Antibody-mediated rejection, hyperacute or accelerated acute in presentation, is also categorized, as are other significant allograft findings.
The Banff 97 working classification refines earlier schemas and represents input from two classifications most widely used in clinical rejection trials and in clinical practice worldwide. Major changes include the following: rejection with vasculitis is separated from tubulointerstitial rejection; severe rejection requires transmural changes in arteries; "borderline" rejection can only be interpreted in a clinical context; antibody-mediated rejection is further defined, and lesion scoring focuses on most severely involved structures. Criteria for specimen adequacy have also been modified. Banff 97 represents a significant refinement of allograft assessment, developed via international consensus discussions.
ROC curves are a popular method for displaying sensitivity and specificity of a continuous diagnostic marker, X, for a binary disease variable, D. However, many disease outcomes are time dependent, D(t), and ROC curves that vary as a function of time may be more appropriate. A common example of a time-dependent variable is vital status, where D(t) = 1 if a patient has died prior to time t and zero otherwise. We propose summarizing the discrimination potential of a marker X, measured at baseline (t = 0), by calculating ROC curves for cumulative disease or death incidence by time t, which we denote as ROC(t). A typical complexity with survival data is that observations may be censored. Two ROC curve estimators are proposed that can accommodate censored data. A simple estimator is based on using the Kaplan-Meier estimator for each possible subset X > c. However, this estimator does not guarantee the necessary condition that sensitivity and specificity are monotone in X. An alternative estimator that does guarantee monotonicity is based on a nearest neighbor estimator for the bivariate distribution function of (X, T), where T represents survival time (Akritas, M. J., 1994, Annals of Statistics 22, 1299-1327). We present an example where ROC(t) is used to compare a standard and a modified flow cytometry measurement for predicting survival after detection of breast cancer and an example where the ROC(t) curve displays the impact of modifying eligibility criteria for sample size and power in HIV prevention trials.
This paper derives a formula to calculate the number of deaths required for a proportional hazards regression model with a nonbinary covariate. The method does not require assumptions about the distributions of survival time and predictor variables other than proportional hazards. Simulations show that the censored observations do not contribute to the power of the test in the proportional hazards model, a fact that is well known for a binary covariate. This paper also provides a variance inflation factor together with simulations for adjustment of sample size when additional covariates are included in the model. Control Clin Trials 2000;21:552-560
Acute renal allograft rejection with intimal arteritis is designated by the widely used Banff 97 classification as type 2A or 2B depending on the extent of arteritis, without regard to interstitial inflammation or tubulitis. We examined whether the distinction between type 2A and 2B is relevant to short- and long-term clinical outcomes, and if outcomes in this subset of acute rejection also are affected by tubulitis, interstitial inflammation, and several additional histologic and clinical parameters.
Pathology records were searched to identify cases of acute renal allograft rejection with intimal arteritis diagnosed between January 1985 and September 2000. For each case, the patient's chart was reviewed to determine the response of the rejection episode to therapy, type(s) of therapy given, and length of graft survival. All biopsies were reviewed and Banff acute and chronic indices recorded by a pathologist blinded to these data. Biopsies not showing type 2A or 2B rejection were excluded, as were repeat biopsies from the same patient and cases with recurrent glomerular disease, viral infection, donor-specific antibodies, or more than mild chronic change.
The initial response to anti-rejection therapy was significantly worse in patients with type 2B acute rejection (N = 29) than in those with type 2A (N = 102) by univariate and multivariate analyses, despite more aggressive treatment of type 2B rejection. In a Cox proportional hazards model the hazard ratio for graft failure for 2B versus 2A was 1.9 (P = 0.05), but this was not significant when adjusted for the initial response to therapy. Cases with minimal or mild tubulitis responded better to therapy than those with moderate or severe tubulitis, although graft survival was not significantly affected by the tubulitis score.
The distinction between types 2A and 2B acute rejection in the Banff 97 classification has significant prognostic value with regard to both short- and long-term clinical outcomes, although the difference in long-term graft survival is mainly related to the initial response to therapy. Reports of biopsies showing type 2A or 2B rejection also should specify the degree of tubulitis present, as the latter may significantly influence the initial response to therapy.
Histologic grading systems are used to guide diagnosis, therapy, and audit on an international basis. The reproducibility of grading systems is usually tested within small groups of pathologists who have previously worked or trained together. This may underestimate the international variation of scoring systems. We therefore evaluated the reproducibility of an established system, the Banff classification of renal allograft pathology, throughout Europe. We also sought to improve reproducibility by providing individual feedback after each of 14 small groups of cases. Kappa values for all features studied were lower than any previously published, confirming that international variation is greater than interobserver variation as previously assessed. A prolonged attempt to improve reproducibility, using numeric or graphical feedback, failed to produce any detectable improvement. We then asked participants to grade selected photographs, to eliminate variation induced by pathologists viewing different areas of the slide. This produced improved kappa values only for some features. Improvement was influenced by the nature of the grade definitions. Definitions based on "area affected" by a process were not improved. The results indicate the danger of basing decisions on grading systems that may be applied very differently in different institutions.
Costs can hamper the evaluation of the effectiveness of new biomarkers. Analysis of smaller numbers of pooled specimens has been shown to be a useful cost-cutting technique. The Youden index (J), a function of sensitivity (q) and specificity (p), is a commonly used measure of overall diagnostic effectiveness. More importantly, J is the maximum vertical distance or difference between the ROC curve and the diagonal or chance line; it occurs at the cut-point that optimizes the biomarker's differentiating ability when equal weight is given to sensitivity and specificity. Using the additive property of the gamma and normal distributions, we present a method to estimate the Youden index and the optimal cut-point, and extend its applications to pooled samples. We study the effect of pooling when only a fixed number of individuals are available for testing, and pooling is carried out to save on the number of assays. We measure loss of information by the change in root mean squared error of the estimates of the optimal cut-point and the Youden index, and we study the extent of this loss via a simulation study. In conclusion, pooling can result in a substantial cost reduction while preserving the effectiveness of estimators, especially when the pool size is not very large.
Transplant glomerulitis may be part of the acute rejection process in some transplant recipients. Glomerular monocytes have been shown to be the predominant cell type in transplant glomerulitis associated with peritubular capillary C4d deposition. Whether this applies to peritubular capillary C4d-negative (C4d-) biopsy specimens with transplant glomerulitis is unknown.
Forty-two biopsy specimens with acute rejection and transplant glomerulitis were immunostained for monocytes, T cells, and C4d. In each biopsy specimen, glomerular monocytes and T cells were counted, and mean numbers of monocytes per glomerulus and T cells per glomerulus were determined.
Peritubular capillary C4d staining was present in 20 biopsy specimens (C4d-positive [C4d+] group) and negative in 22 specimens (C4d- group). There was no significant difference between mean Banff 97 glomerular scores for the 2 groups (C4d+ , 1.60 +/- 0.80; C4d- , 1.77 +/- 0.90). Although the C4d+ group showed a significantly higher mean number of monocytes per glomerulus (3.01 +/- 2.35) than the C4d- group (0.95 +/- 1.00; P < 0.0001), the C4d- group showed a significantly higher mean number of T cells per glomerulus (4.05 +/- 3.05) than the C4d+ group (1.36 +/- 1.24; P = 0.0007). There were proportionately more C4d+ biopsy specimens with a monocyte-T-cell ratio greater than 1.0 (75%) than C4d- specimens (14%; P < 0.0001). Mean glomerular monocyte-T-cell ratio was 3.66 +/- 4.24 for the C4d+ group and 0.39 +/- 0.54 for the C4d- group; the difference was significant (P = 0.0009).
In acute rejection with no peritubular capillary C4d deposition, the predominant infiltrating endocapillary cell in transplant glomerulitis is the T cell, unlike acute rejection with peritubular capillary C4d deposition, in which the predominant infiltrating glomerular cell is the monocyte.
Peritubular capillary (PTC) deposition of complement split factor C4d in renal allografts has been shown to be closely associated with circulating antidonor antibodies and a marker for relatively poor graft survival. Monocyte/macrophage (MO) infiltration of renal allografts has been shown to adversely affect graft survival. The purpose of this study was to assess whether the two phenomena are related.
Twenty-three biopsies (from 15 patients) demonstrated diffuse strong staining of PTC for C4d (C4d+ group) and acute tubular injury with or without significant cellular rejection, while 28 biopsies (with acute rejection) but negative for PTC C4d served as controls (C4d- group).
The C4d+ group demonstrated significantly greater glomerular and interstitial MO infiltration than did the C4d- group [3.4 +/- 2.0 vs. 0.2 +/- 0.3 MO/glomerulus, P < 0.0001; 12.9 +/- 9.2 vs. 6.5 +/- 5.0 MO/high power field (hpf), P = 0.0030]. Neutrophilic (PMN) infiltration of glomeruli and PTC was also significantly greater in the C4d+ group than in the C4d- one (0.8 +/- 0.6 vs. 0.3 +/- 0.3 PMN/glomerulus, P = 0.0003; 0.9 +/- 0.8 vs. 0.4 +/- 0.3 PTC PMN/hpf, P = 0.0035).
The results indicate a close association between PTC C4d deposition and MO infiltration, particularly glomerular, and confirm previous observations regarding the correlation of PTC C4d staining and PMN infiltration.
Both peritubular capillary (PTC) C4d deposition and macrophage/monocyte (MO) infiltration in acute rejection (AR) have separately been shown to be associated with reduced graft survival and recently were demonstrated to be closely correlated in AR. Whether MO infiltration is an independent predictor of graft outcome is uncertain.
All patients with biopsy-proven AR (over a 3-year period) were included (N= 96). All biopsies (N= 121) were graded according to the Banff 97 criteria and immunohistochemically stained for C4d and MO (CD68). The primary outcome was glomerular filtration rate (GFR) <30 mL/min 1-year posttransplant as estimated by the Modified Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Formula. Secondary outcomes at 2 and 4 years' posttransplant were also explored. A variety of clinical and biopsy variables were statistically analyzed to establish univariate predictors of graft outcome. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression modeling was applied to determine independent predictors of outcomes.
There was a close correlation between PTC C4d and glomerular MO infiltration (P < 0.001). Univariate predictors of primary outcome (GFR <30 mL/min 1-year posttransplant) included mean glomerular MO count > or =1.0 MO/glomerulus (P= 0.014), female sex (P= 0.02), higher peak (P= 0.005), and pretransplant (P= 0.003) panel-reactive antibody levels, cadaveric donor (P= 0.006), transplant glomerulitis (P= 0.004), and longer cold ischemic time (CIT) (P= 0.002). Mean MO/glomerulus > or =1.0 [OR 10.3 (1.23, 87.1)], female sex [OR 5.27(1.31, 21.1)], and CIT [OR 1.14 (1.06, 1.25)] were identified as independent predictors of adverse graft outcome. Furthermore, mean MO/glomerulus > or =1.0 independently predicted poor renal function at 2 years [OR 3.89 (1.19, 12.70)] and 4 years [OR 4.03 (1.22, 13.28)] posttransplant.
The results demonstrate that glomerular MO infiltration is an independent predictor of worse outcomes posttransplant following acute renal allograft rejection.