Ewout W Steyerberg

University Medical Center Utrecht | UMC Utrecht · Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care

Background This study aimed to assess the performance of currently available risk calculators in a cohort of patients with malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNST) and to create an MPNST-specific prognostic model including type-specific predictors for overall survival (OS). Methods This is a retrospective multicenter cohort study of patien...

Background Blood cultures are commonly used at emergency departments (EDs), while only 5-10% yields a relevant pathogen. We aimed to develop an automatable prediction model in ED patients with suspected bacteremia. This may reduce the use of blood cultures and prevent potential harm from false-positive blood cultures, while minimizing the risk of m...

Background Accurately predicting the risk of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy before surgery may assist surgeons in making more informed treatment decisions and improved patient counselling. The aim was to evaluate the predictive accuracy of a radiomics-based preoperative-Fistula Risk Score (RAD-FRS)...

Intracranial pressure (ICP) data from traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) cannot be interpreted appropriately without accounting for the effect of administered therapy intensity level (TIL) on ICP. A 15-point scale was originally proposed in 1987 to quantify the hourly intensity of ICP-targeted treatment. This sca...

Background: Corticosteroids could improve outcomes in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). However, we hypothesize that corticosteroid effectiveness varies among individual patients, resulting in inconsistent outcomes and unclear clinical indication. Therefore, we developed and validated a predictive, causal model based on baseline cha...

Purpose Evidence regarding the effect of surgery in traumatic intracerebral hematoma (t-ICH) is limited and relies on the STITCH(Trauma) trial. This study is aimed at comparing the effectiveness of early surgery to conservative treatment in patients with a t-ICH. Methods In a prospective cohort, we included patients with a large t-ICH (< 48 h of i...

Objectives: The purpose of this review was to identify prognostic models for clinical application in patients with venous leg ulcers (VLUs). Study design and setting: Literature searches were conducted in Embase, Medline, Cochrane and CINAHL databases from inception to 22nd December 2021. Eligible studies reported prognostic models aimed at deve...

Objectives: To assess the value of machine learning approaches in the development of a multivariable model for early prediction of ICU death in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Design: A development, testing, and external validation study using clinical data from four prospective, multicenter, observational cohorts. Set...

Existing methods to characterise the evolving condition of traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) do not capture the context necessary for individualising treatment. Here, we integrate all heterogenous data stored in medical records (1166 pre-ICU and ICU variables) to model the individualised contribution of clinical...

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1055/a-2122-0419.].

Background: Limited evidence existed on the comparative effectiveness of decompressive craniectomy (DC) versus craniotomy for evacuation of traumatic acute subdural hematoma (ASDH) until the recently published randomised clinical trial RESCUE-ASDH. In this study, that ran concurrently, we aimed to determine current practice patterns and compare ou...

The Therapy Intensity Level (TIL) scale and its abridged version (TIL (Basic) ) are used to record the intensity of daily management for raised intracranial pressure (ICP) after traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, it is uncertain: (1) whether TIL is valid across the wide variation in modern ICP treatment strategies, (2) if TIL performs better th...

Background and study aims Overcoming logistical obstacles for the implementation of colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) requires accurate prediction of procedure times. We aimed to evaluate existing and new prediction models for ESD duration. Patients and methods Records of all consecutive patients who underwent single, non-hybrid co...

Importance: Outcome prediction after endovascular treatment (EVT) for ischemic stroke is important to patients, family members, and physicians. Objective: To develop and validate a model based on preprocedural and postprocedural characteristics to predict functional outcome for individual patients after EVT. Design, setting, and participants:...

Background: The risk of relapse after anti-tumour necrosis factor [TNF] therapy discontinuation in Crohn's disease patients with perianal fistulas [pCD] is unclear. We aimed to assess this risk. Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted to identify cohort studies on the incidence of relapse following anti-TNF discontinuation in pCD p...

Prognostication is challenging in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients in whom the CT fails to fully explain a low level of consciousness. Serum biomarkers reflect the extent of structural damage in a different way than CT does, but it is unclear if biomarkers provide additional prognostic value across the range of CT abnormalities. This study aim...

Background A number of recent papers have proposed methods to calculate confidence intervals and p values for net benefit used in decision curve analysis. These papers are sparse on the rationale for doing so. We aim to assess the relation between sampling variability, inference, and decision-analytic concepts. Methods and results We review the un...

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a global public health problem and a leading cause of mortality, morbidity and disability. The increasing incidence combined with the heterogeneity and complexity of TBI will inevitably place a substantial burden on health systems. These findings emphasize the importance of obtaining accurate and timely insights into...

Identification of postoperative infections based on retrospective patient data is currently done using manual chart review. We used a validated, automated labelling method based on registrations and treatments to develop a high-quality prediction model (AUC 0.81) for postoperative infections.

When patients with cancer develop depression, it is often left untreated. We developed a prediction model for depression risk within the first month after starting cancer treatment using machine learning and Natural Language Processing (NLP) models. The LASSO logistic regression model based on structured data performed well, whereas the NLP model b...

The TRIPOD (Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis) Statement includes a 22-item checklist, which aims to improve the reporting of studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. The TRIPOD Statement aims to improve the transparen...

The generalizability of predictive algorithms is of key relevance to application in clinical practice. We provide an overview of three types of generalizability, based on existing literature: temporal, geographical, and domain generalizability. These generalizability types are linked to their associated goals, methodology, and stakeholders.

Objectives: To 1) explore trends of risk of bias (ROB) in prediction research over time following key methodological publications, using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) and 2) assess the inter-rater agreement of the PROBAST. Study design and setting: PubMed and Web of Science were searched for reviews with extractable...

After mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), a substantial proportion of individuals do not fully recover on the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) or experience persistent post-concussion symptoms (PPCS). We aimed to develop prognostic models for the GOSE and PPCS at 6 months after mTBI and to assess the prognostic value of different categories of...

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) can negatively impact patients’ lives on many dimensions. Multiple instruments are available for evaluating TBI outcomes, but it is still unclear which instruments are the most sensitive for that purpose. This study examines the sensitivity of nine outcome instruments in terms of their ability to discriminate within and...

Treatment effects are often anticipated to vary across groups of patients with different baseline risk. The Predictive Approaches to Treatment Effect Heterogeneity (PATH) statement focused on baseline risk as a robust predictor of treatment effect and provided guidance on risk-based assessment of treatment effect heterogeneity in a randomized contr...

Background Baseline outcome risk can be an important determinant of absolute treatment benefit and has been used in guidelines for “personalizing” medical decisions. We compared easily applicable risk-based methods for optimal prediction of individualized treatment effects. Methods We simulated RCT data using diverse assumptions for the average tr...

Objectives: Early Warning Scores (EWSs) have a great potential to assist clinical decision-making in the emergency department (ED). However, many EWS contain methodological weaknesses in development and validation and have poor predictive performance in older patients. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate an International E...

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. To better understand its impact on various outcome domains, this study pursues the following: (1) longitudinal outcome assessments at three, six, and twelve months post-injury; (2) an evaluation of sociodemographic, premorbid, and injury-related factor...

Background The Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and the CURB-65 score assess disease severity in patients with community acquired pneumonia (CAP). We compared the clinical performance of both prognostic scores according to clinical outcomes and admission rates. Methods A nationwide retrospective cohort study was conducted using claims data from adul...

Existing methods to characterise the evolving condition of traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) do not capture the context necessary for individualising treatment. We aimed to develop a modelling strategy which integrates all data stored in medical records to produce an interpretable disease course for each TBI pat...

In clinical settings, the absolute risk reduction due to treatment that can be expected in a particular patient is of key interest. However, logistic regression, the default regression model for trials with a binary outcome, produces estimates of the effect of treatment measured as a difference in log odds. We explored options to estimate treatment...

Background Clinical prediction models should be validated before implementation in clinical practice. But is favorable performance at internal validation or one external validation sufficient to claim that a prediction model works well in the intended clinical context? Main body We argue to the contrary because (1) patient populations vary, (2) me...

Prognostic prediction of traumatic brain injury (TBI) in patients is crucial in clinical decision and health care policy making. This study aimed to develop and validate prediction models for in-hospital mortality after severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI). We developed and validated logistic regression (LR), LASSO regression, and machine learning...

Objective: In the surgical treatment of isthmic spondylolisthesis, it is debatable whether instrumented fusion is mandatory in addition to decompression. The objective of this prospective cohort study was to assess the long-term effect of decompression alone compared with decompression and instrumented fusion in patients who underwent the interven...

Abstract Mortality is a frequently reported outcome in clinical studies of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). However, timing of mortality assessment has not been well characterized. We aimed to identify a crossing-point between cumulative survival and death in the intensive care unit (ICU) of patients with moderate-to-severe ARDS, beyond...

Aims: Indications for surgery in patients with degenerative mitral regurgitation (DMR) are increasingly liberal in all clinical guidelines but the role of secondary outcome determinants (left atrial volume index ≥60 mL/m2, atrial fibrillation, pulmonary artery systolic pressure ≥50 mmHg and moderate to severe tricuspid regurgitation) and their imp...

Half of Barrett’s esophagus (BE) surveillance endoscopies do not adhere to guideline recommendations. In this multicenter prospective cohort study, we assessed the clinical consequences of nonadherence to recommended surveillance intervals and biopsy protocol. Data from BE surveillance patients were collected from endoscopy and pathology reports; q...

Risk prediction models need thorough validation to assess their performance. Validation of models for survival outcomes poses challenges due to the censoring of observations and the varying time horizon at which predictions can be made. This article describes measures to evaluate predictions and the potential improvement in decision making from sur...

Background Despite existing guidelines for managing mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), evidence-based treatments are still scarce and large-scale studies on the provision and impact of specific rehabilitation services are needed. This study aimed to describe the provision of rehabilitation to patients after complicated and uncomplicated mTBI and i...

Objectives: Many machine learning (ML) models have been developed for application in the ICU, but few models have been subjected to external validation. The performance of these models in new settings therefore remains unknown. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of an existing decision support tool based on a ML model predic...

Background The Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and the Confusion, Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, 65 years of age and older (CURB-65) score can assess the severity in patients with community acquired pneumonia (CAP). We compared the clinical performance of both prognostic scores according to clinical outcome and admission rates. Me...

Background Clinical prediction models are often not evaluated properly in specific settings or updated, for instance, with information from new markers. These key steps are needed such that models are fit for purpose and remain relevant in the long-term. We aimed to present an overview of methodological guidance for the evaluation (i.e., validation...

While the opportunities of ML and AI in healthcare are promising, the growth of complex data-driven prediction models requires careful quality and applicability assessment before they are applied and disseminated in daily practice. This scoping review aimed to identify actionable guidance for those closely involved in AI-based prediction model (AIP...

Objective: To assess improvement in the completeness of reporting COVID-19 prediction models after the peer review process. Study design and setting: Studies included in a living systematic review of COVID-19 prediction models, with both pre-print and peer-reviewed published versions available, were assessed. The primary outcome was the change i...

Abstract Background Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) carries prognostic importance after traumatic brain injury (TBI), especially when computed tomography (CT) fails to fully explain the level of unconsciousness. However, in critically ill patients, the risk of deterioration during transfer needs to be balanced against the benefit of detecting prog...

Early detection of severe asthma exacerbations through home monitoring data in patients with stable mild-to-moderate chronic asthma could help to timely adjust medication. We evaluated the potential of machine learning methods compared to a clinical rule and logistic regression to predict severe exacerbations. We used daily home monitoring data fro...

Following publication of the original article [1], the authors flagged the following error in the '3. Formula to estimate the contralateral breast cancer risk using PredictCBC-2.0A' section of additional file 1: ‘+ 0.065 × I[Radiotherapy to the breast = yes]’ had been written in place of ‘− 0.065 × I[Radiotherapy to the breast = yes]‘. The file has...

Purpose The use of computed tomography (CT) in fractures is time consuming, challenging and suffers from poor inter-surgeon reliability. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs), a subset of artificial intelligence (AI), may overcome shortcomings and reduce clinical burdens to detect and classify fractures. The aim of this review was to summarize liter...

Background Prediction of contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk is challenging due to moderate performances of the known risk factors. We aimed to improve our previous risk prediction model (PredictCBC) by updated follow-up and including additional risk factors. Methods We included data from 207,510 invasive breast cancer patients participating in...

PurposeThe effect of high arterial oxygen levels and supplemental oxygen administration on outcomes in traumatic brain injury (TBI) is debated, and data from large cohorts of TBI patients are limited. We investigated whether exposure to high blood oxygen levels and high oxygen supplementation is independently associated with outcomes in TBI patient...

Introduction/Background In 2021, the ESGO-ESTRO-ESP endometrial cancer (EC) guideline was updated and the molecular classification was added to the clinicopathological prognostic factors to classify women with EC in risk groups. The risk stratification is based on consensus of a multitude of studies investigating a variety of EC subgroups. To date,...

Purpose To determine whether levels of pre-operative pain as recalled by a patient in the post-operative phase are possibly overestimated or underestimated compared to prospectively scored pain levels. If so, a subsequent misclassification may induce recall bias that may lead to an erroneous effect outcome. Methods Data of seven retrospective coho...

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is frequently associated with neuropsychiatric impairments such as symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), which can be screened using self-report instruments such as the Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5). The current study aims to inspect the factorial validity and cross-linguistic e...

Introduction: In patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), the PaO2/FiO2 ratio at the time of ARDS diagnosis is weakly associated with mortality. We hypothesized that setting a PaO2/FiO2 threshold in 150 mm Hg at 24 h from moderate/severe ARDS diagnosis would improve predictions of death in the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods:...

Lobular primary breast cancer (PBC) histology has been proposed as a risk factor for contralateral breast cancer (CBC), but results have been inconsistent. We investigated CBC risk and the impact of systemic therapy in lobular versus ductal PBC. Further, CBC characteristics following these histologic subtypes were explored. We selected 74,373 women...