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Farmers’ perceptions over time of an agroforestry technology can have an important impact on adoption and disadoption. Their perceptions, in turn, may be influenced by the type and scale of farm they own and the social networks they create. We examined the factors underlying producers’ perceptions of silvopasture systems at the time of adoption and perceptions following several years of experience, and the factors explaining discontinuance of systems in Argentina. We found that while most adopters indicated that other people influenced their decision about whether or not to adopt silvopasture, the type of person that influenced them (professionals vs. other farmers) did not affect adopters’ perceptions of the relative benefits and challenges of the system. However, farm scale and farm type did explain farmers’ perceptions to a good degree. Smaller-scale farmers were less likely to see costs and returns as benefits of the system, but more likely to see cash flow properties as important advantages. Farmers’ perceptions after experiencing the system were good predictors of likely discontinuance, but influential people, farm scales, farm type, and perceptions at the time of adoption were not.
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Perceptions of silvopasture systems among adopters in northeast Argentina
Gregory E. Frey
a,
, Hugo E. Fassola
b
, A. Nahuel Pachas
b
, Luis Colcombet
b
, Santiago M. Lacorte
c
,
Oscar Pérez
d
, Mitch Renkow
e
, Sarah T. Warren
f
, Frederick W. Cubbage
f
a
Department of Agricultural Research, Virginia State University, Petersburg, VA, USA
b
Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, EEA Montecarlo, Argentina
c
Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, CR Misiones, Posadas, Argentina
d
Universidad Nacional de Misiones, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, Eldorado, Argentina
e
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
f
Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
article info
Article history:
Received 15 June 2011
Received in revised form 15 September
2011
Accepted 18 September 2011
Keywords:
Farm type
Farm scale
Agroforestry
Discontinuance
Silvopasture
Argentina
abstract
Farmers’ perceptions over time of an agroforestry technology can have an important impact on adoption
and disadoption. Their perceptions, in turn, may be influenced by the type and scale of farm they own and
the social networks they create. We examined the factors underlying producers’ perceptions of silvopas-
ture systems at the time of adoption and perceptions following several years of experience, and the fac-
tors explaining discontinuance of systems in Argentina. We found that while most adopters indicated
that other people influenced their decision about whether or not to adopt silvopasture, the type of person
that influenced them (professionals vs. other farmers) did not affect adopters’ perceptions of the relative
benefits and challenges of the system. However, farm scale and farm type did explain farmers’ percep-
tions to a good degree. Smaller-scale farmers were less likely to see costs and returns as benefits of
the system, but more likely to see cash flow properties as important advantages. Farmers’ perceptions
after experiencing the system were good predictors of likely discontinuance, but influential people, farm
scales, farm type, and perceptions at the time of adoption were not.
Ó2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
In many parts of the world, agroforestry adoption has pro-
ceeded slowly despite apparent benefits. This has prompted signif-
icant research focusing on the factors that affect adoption
(Pattanayak et al., 2003). Studies have shown that, in addition to
market, biological, and demographic factors, farmers’ subjective
perceptions of a technology play a key role in agricultural technol-
ogy adoption (Rogers, 2003; Fliegel and Kivlin, 1966; Adesina and
Baiduforson, 1995; Ajayi, 2007; Khan et al., 2008). Adopters’ per-
ceptions can, in turn, be influenced by their experiences and social
networks with other people (Kearns, 1992; German et al., 2006).
These might include other farmers in cooperatives, neighbors,
and extension agents.
Previous studies of farmers’ views of agroforestry systems have
focused almost exclusively on the question of whether farmers
adopt a technology or do not adopt it, and have not emphasized
their perceptions of the technology after having practiced it. How-
ever, as Kiptot et al. (2007) point out, a classification system of only
adopters vs. non-adopters is an oversimplification of the way farm-
ers understand a new technology. Discontinuance or disadoption is
a very real possibility for a system that does not meet expectations
(Parthasarathy and Bhattacherjee, 1998; German et al., 2006;
Kiptot et al., 2007). Also, many farmers will test a technology on
their fields or wait to see results from neighbors’ fields before
deciding fully to adopt. The ‘‘testing period’’ in areas such as infor-
mation technology may be relatively short (Spiller et al., 2007), but
for technologies with long, discrete waiting periods for full benefits
to be achieved, such as is the case with a system that includes a
tree component grown for timber, testing periods may be longer,
perhaps as long as the timber rotation period. Therefore, use of
agroforestry technology, even for a number of years, may not nec-
essarily equate with future continuance.
Adopters’ perceptions of an available technology can and will
change over time as they learn more about the benefits and chal-
lenges it creates (Bhattacherjee, 2001). This change in perception
may be one of the key driving forces behind discontinuance, but
it has not received consistent treatment in the agroforestry diffu-
sion literature. However, evidence from the information technol-
ogy adoption literature suggests that initial perceptions (at the
time of adoption) can be strong predictors of future discontinuance
(Parthasarathy and Bhattacherjee, 1998). Also, whether or not an
0308-521X/$ - see front matter Ó2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2011.09.001
Corresponding author. Address: P.O. Box 9081, Petersburg, VA 23806, USA. Tel.:
+1 804 524 6967.
E-mail address: gfrey@vsu.edu (G.E. Frey).
Agricultural Systems 105 (2012) 21–32
Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
Agricultural Systems
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy
Author's personal copy
adopter uses social networks to make the adoption decision or
makes the decision independently can help predict discontinu-
ance; those who make the decision alone are more likely to con-
tinue than those who make decisions via social networks
(Parthasarathy and Bhattacherjee, 1998). These results have not
been tested with agroforestry continuance/discontinuance.
Other factors may influence farmers’ perceptions of the agrofor-
estry technology. Pérez (2006) found that while large-, medium-,
and small-scale farmers in Honduras manage silvopasture systems
in similar ways, their total net revenues and net revenues from for-
estry vs. livestock were quite different. Agroforestry can play dif-
ferent roles for distinct classes of farms and farm managers.
This research was designed to advance our knowledge about the
factors that impact farmers’ perceptions of an agroforestry technol-
ogy and the factors that explain discontinuance. The primary
objective of this study was to investigate the factors that affect
the perceptions of different kinds of farmers about a specific agro-
forestry technology – silvopasture systems in northeastern Argen-
tina. As opposed to previous work on perceptions of agricultural
technologies, we do not compare the perceptions of adopters vs.
non-adopters, but rather that of different classes of adopters (e.g.,
small-scale vs. large-scale) at different points in time. We test
independent variables such as farm scale, farm type (based on
main products produced prior to adopting silvopasture), and the
categories of people who were influential in helping with the adop-
tion decision (e.g., extension agents and other farmers) for power
in explaining farmers’ perceptions.
A second objective was to model likely discontinuance of the
system. While discontinuance has been studied in fields such as
information technology adoption, it has largely been ignored in
agroforestry adoption literature, with a few notable exceptions
(Keil et al., 2005; Kiptot et al., 2007). One reason that discontinu-
ance is not fully investigated in agroforestry is because of time
scale. If the trees in the system are eventually to be utilized for tim-
ber or some other long-term investment, farmers are unlikely to
discontinue in the middle of a rotation because they have invested
resources in a relatively high-value future product. While it is pos-
sible to leave the standing timber and discontinue the intensive
management of the various other components (livestock, crops),
there may be a range of management practices of varying intensity,
and it is not often a clear distinction to determine that agroforestry
has been discontinued unless the trees are cut and not replanted.
Furthermore, farmers may purposefully remove the livestock or
crop component during a certain portion of the timber rotation;
such a system could still be considered agroforestry. For these rea-
sons, discontinuance of agroforestry can be difficult to track with-
out following an entire cycle of the system. Agroforestry research
has not always been conducted through a complete timber rota-
tion; in general institutional research programs do not extend that
long.
We hope to contribute towards a future framework to under-
stand how perceptions and other factors affect continuance vs. dis-
continuance among different classes of adopters. Our study uses
farmers’ stated likelihood of future continuance or discontinuance
of the system as a proxy for what they will actually do once they
are able to harvest the timber. While the stated likelihood is not
a completely accurate predictor of actual discontinuance, it still
provides important information.
Finally, we hope to extend knowledge about the benefits and
costs of silvopasture systems. While a few studies have revealed
the ways farmers perceive silvopasture, because adoption has not
been widespread in many countries, there is a need for a greater
understanding of how farmers perceive the system and how
those perceptions change over time. We discuss the literature
about farmers’ views and opinions of silvopasture in the Americas
below.
1.1. Perceptions of silvopasture in the Americas
A study by Shrestha et al. (2004) in Florida, USA, interviewed
three relevant opinion leaders for silvopasture and found that the
system had the strengths and opportunities of providing a strong
sense of stewardship and satisfaction to adopters, aiding in envi-
ronmental protection, and helping to diversify income. On the
other hand, characteristics such as fire hazard, uncertainty about
government regulations, and the length of the silvopasture invest-
ment were the major weaknesses of and threats to silvopasture
adoption (Shrestha et al., 2004). While the method used by
Shrestha et al. (2004) of interviewing opinion leaders is beneficial
for obtaining a quick assessment of system potential, they note
that surveying a larger sample is desirable to gather a more
representative view of heterogeneous opinions among adopters
or potential adopters.
Pérez (2006) noted the benefits and limitations that silvopas-
ture adopters in Copán, Honduras, perceived, using a sample of
29 adopters. The economic and ecological benefits of silvopasture
were perceived as being approximately equally important, and
there was no significant difference in the perceptions of the bene-
fits of silvopasture for small-, medium-, and large-scale farmers. In
terms of the limitations of silvopasture systems, the lack of the
ability to obtain seedlings or cuttings cheaply for tree planting
was important, especially for small- and medium-scale farmers.
Several silvopasture adopters also lamented the lack of support
from agricultural institutions, the amount of labor involved in
managing silvopasture, and tree mortality.
Calle (2008) conducted surveys of 28 farmers involved with sil-
vopasture programs in Quindío, Colombia, to investigate farmers’
motivations for adoption, the benefits they presently perceive in
silvopasture systems, and the changes in attitudes they underwent
after practicing silvopasture. Calle (2008) noted that the principal
benefits perceived by silvopasture adopters are private benefits
(e.g., reduced used of fertilizer inputs, improved food supplies for
cattle), and public environmental benefits (e.g., increased wildlife
biodiversity). The primary barriers to silvopasture adoption noted
by the adopters were the high cost of establishment and the lack
of information and knowledge about the system. Calle (2008) also
observed the changes in farmers’ attitudes over time regarding
participation in silvopasture extension programs. The study
showed that farmers more readily accepted that trees and pasture
can coexist in a single plot. More notably, farmers reported gaining
a greater understanding of biological/ecological processes, the
importance of the environment in general, and sustainable
practices.
A legitimate question is: Given these previous studies on per-
ceptions of silvopasture systems in the Americas, can we gain
knowledge from one more study of perceptions of silvopasture?
We believe that a better understanding of both the factors affecting
perceptions and their change over time and also the factors that af-
fect discontinuance of the technology in Argentina can inform
other silvopastural practitioners and proponents in other parts of
the world. Although Pérez (2006) noted some differences between
‘‘small-scale’’ and ‘‘large-scale’’ farms in Honduras and Shrestha
et al. (2004) interviewed a small- and large-scale farmer in Florida,
research where silvopastural practices have been widely adopted is
rare. Argentina is one of the few places where silvopasture using
planted trees has been readily adopted at different scales of farm-
ing systems, from small, annual-cropping, semi-subsistence farms
up to large, corporate forestry enterprises, and cattle ranches.
There are potential benefits of this study within Argentina.
Extension to potential adopters can be strengthened by under-
standing how more experienced farmers view the technology. Be-
cause there are multiple constraints to adoption of silvopasture
systems, such as the high front-end investment requirement in
22 G.E. Frey et al. / Agricultural Systems 105 (2012) 21–32
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capital and labor (Dagang and Nair, 2003; Pagiola et al., 2004), if
we are to expect good adoption of agroforestry systems, we should
properly understand the motivations and expectations of the farm-
ers who may be adopting them (Dagang and Nair, 2003).
2. Study area
The study area of Misiones and northeastern Corrientes prov-
inces (Fig. 1) corresponds to the phytogeographic region known
as the Provincia Paranaense (Cabrera, 1976), where two distinct dis-
tricts are found – the subtropical forests of central and northern
Misiones, and the grasslands of southern Misiones and northeast-
ern Corrientes (Cabrera, 1976; Rodriguez et al., 2004). The soils
are derived from the weathering of basaltic rocks, forming reddish
clay soils, principally Ultisols and Oxisols. The climate is humid
and subtropical
1
(Rodriguez et al., 2004). The average annual precip-
itation is around 1900 mm, with an average annual temperature of
approximately 21 °C(Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, 2008).
There are diverse farming systems in the region. Northeastern
Corrientes and southern Misiones have been traditionally used
for extensive cattle grazing, now operated by large estancias. Cen-
tral and northern Misiones were only settled to a large extent in
the 1920s; some of the more remote parts remain relatively undis-
turbed. This area is commonly utilized by small- and medium-scale
semi-subsistence farmers and cash cropping farmers who raise
either perennials such as tea (Camellia sinensis) and yerba mate
(Ilex paraguariensis), or annuals such as tobacco (Nicotiana spp.).
Since the 1970s, the number of forest-product firms operating in
central and northern Misiones has increased. Initially these firms
planted native Araucaria angustifolia and now primarily plant exo-
tic pine species (Pinus spp.) for timber.
Misiones and northeastern Corrientes have recently experi-
enced relatively widespread adoption of silvopasture systems
among farms of all scales and types, in comparison to adoption
in many other parts of the world. While some adoption did take
place in the 1970s, silvopasture was more widely researched in
the 1980s, resulting in visibly improved management of the forage,
livestock, and timber components. This research has led to increas-
ing adoption of the practice (Fassola et al., 2004b). Silvopasture
implementation had reached an extent of over 20,000 ha. by 2008.
Fassola et al. (2004a) found that silvopasture in Misiones and
Corrientes has the potential to allow producers to diversify prod-
ucts, improve quality of products, reduce management costs, and
reap other benefits. Indeed, cost-benefit analyses of silvopasture
in Argentina demonstrate that silvopasture could be quite produc-
tive economically, in comparison with traditional agricultural sys-
tems (Esquivel et al., 2004; Fassola et al., 2004a).
In order to encourage the forest-product industry in Misiones,
the national government of Argentina authorized cost-share pro-
grams in 1992 and again in 2000 to offset a portion of the costs
of site preparation and plantation. In addition to conventional for-
est plantations, this program aided silvopasture adoption among
cattle ranchers and annual and perennial cash croppers. It func-
tioned fairly well until the Argentine financial crisis of 2001, after
which time there has been a long waiting list for payments. Subse-
quently, many farm adopters and forest product firms (which
would have been receiving forestry incentive payments regardless
of silvopasture adoption), adopted silvopasture without the expec-
tation of financial incentives.
Apart from the national cost-share program, smaller programs
have been started through extension programs in districts
throughout Misiones province for silvopasture among small land-
holders. These special extension programs have provided in-kind
capital inputs such as tree seedlings, pasture seed or transplants,
and fencing materials.
3. Interview methods
We employed a mixed-methods approach to data gathering,
conducting a semi-structured open-ended set of interviews among
silvopasture adopters in the Misiones and northeastern Corrientes
provinces of northeastern Argentina during June and July of 2006,
Fig. 1. Map of the study region, with numbers indicating number of respondents in subregions (total 44 respondents) to indicate approximate distribution of respondents.
Exact locations of respondent farms are not mapped to protect confidentiality. Farms were selected for the survey to represent distinct geographic regions, farm scales, and
farm types.
1
Cfa under the Köppen–Geiger climate classification system.
G.E. Frey et al. / Agricultural Systems 105 (2012) 21–32 23
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and June of 2008. The instrument was initially reviewed within a
focus group of extension agents and research scientists of the Insti-
tuto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA) from the region.
Subsequently we conducted a pre-test with producers at varying
farm scales.
Random sampling was not practical because the complete pop-
ulation of adopters was not known, and because of the distances
between individual adopters. Thus we designed a stratified, purpo-
sive sample. Adopters were selected specifically to represent the
continuum of diverse farm scales in sub-regions throughout the
two provinces. They were identified by INTA researchers and
extension agents. In cases where the potential respondents were
not available or chose not to participate, similar respondents with-
in the same community as members of the original list were se-
lected as alternates. Forty-seven silvopasture practitioners were
interviewed, producing 44 usable responses. Interviews were con-
ducted once per respondent, on farm, in Spanish, with the same
team conducting all interviews. Because practitioners were being
asked to provide information about two distinct points in time
(the period when they adopted silvopastoral practices and the
present), the opportunity for distortions based on recall was min-
imized by asking respondents first to consider details about the ini-
tial adoption period.
Clusters of questions most important for our analysis focused
on: the advantages and disadvantages that the managers perceived
in the silvopasture system at two points in time (the present and
the time of adoption), people who influenced them in their decision
to adopt agroforestry, whether they would be likely to continue or
discontinue practicing silvopasture given current prices and incen-
tive policies, and whether they would continue the practice if all
cost-share and in-kind support programs were terminated.
3.1. Respondent characteristics
Respondent characteristics are summarized in Table 1. The 44
respondents were classified into three farm ‘‘scale’’ groups using
natural clusters of farm size: small-scale (15–50 ha.), medium-
scale (75–800 ha.), and large-scale (>1100 ha.). The range of farm
sizes was between 15 and 14,000 ha. (with a mean of 1253 ha.
and median of 233 ha.). Farm size was determined by including
all properties in the near vicinity that were owned by the respon-
dent. Respondents’ farms were classified into four farm ‘‘types’’
according to the principal production system besides silvopasture:
forest plantation farms, cattle farms, perennial cash crop farms,
and annual crop farms. Interviews were conducted with individu-
als on each farm who participated in day-to-day farm management
decisions, including the silvopasture parcels. Of these, 38 respon-
dents were the legal landholder, while 6 respondents were profes-
sionals contracted to manage the farm. Respondents had an
average formal education of 10.5 years, but included elementary
school drop-outs to post-graduates. Thirty-nine of the 44 respon-
dents (89%) were male. All respondents lived on-farm or in nearby
communities.
4. Methods
4.1. Dependent variable: Net perceptions
Quantitative content analysis involves the coding of key words
and phrases in verbal or written communication, and counting
these statements to compare how different groups communicate
(Berelson, 1952). As a modified approach, we added and subtracted
positive and negative statements in the same manner to achieve
the same principle. Shiferaw and Holden (1998) and Sall et al.
(2000) used ordinal scales of perceptions in terms of agricultural
technology adoption, although the variables were created in a
slightly different manner.
Our coding of the data was focused on determining how differ-
ent groups communicated their perceptions, by grouping and
counting similar phrases as described by Berelson (1952) and Krip-
pendorff (2004). Farmers’ responses to open-ended questions
about their positive and negative perceptions of silvopasture sys-
tems generally refer to specific attributes of the technology, which
makes the information easier to compare with other silvopasture
studies. It was difficult in some cases, however, to untangle the
specific attributes from the underlying motivation. For example,
one farmer might cite as a benefit the greater quantity of pasture;
another that shade reduces heat stress on cattle. In the end, both of
these are benefits to the farmer because they increase revenues
from the sale of beef. Consequently, we grouped responses into
categories by interpreting the underlying motivations by which
they are seen as positive or negative. Because the questions were
open-ended, respondents gave multiple answers. For this reason,
similar responses were pooled and percentages derived from the
analysis do not add up to 100%.
Farmers’ responses for the positives and negatives they per-
ceived at the two points in time were classified into six categories
of system characteristics, using a classification similar to that pio-
neered by Rogers (2003). This categorization is commonly used in
technology characterization and perception literature (Fliegel and
Kivlin, 1966; Parthasarathy and Bhattacherjee, 1998), with some
modifications. The adapted classification system is as follows:
Costs – Perceptions about whether the technology has a rela-
tively high (disadvantage) or relative low (advantage) level of
costs. This includes both start-up costs and continuing costs.
Table 1
Summary respondent characteristics.
Category Variable Description nMean
Relationship to farm Landholder Legal landholder 38 0.86
Manager Other professional hired to manage the farmland 6 0.14
Farm scale Small 15–50 ha. (sum of all land owned in the study region) 16 0.36
Medium 75–800 ha. 16 0.36
Large >1100 ha. 12 0.27
Farm type Perennial Principal farm output before beginning silvopasture was perennial crop (yerba mate, tea) 9 0.21
Cattle Principal farm output was cattle 16 0.36
Crops Principal farm output was annual crops (tobacco, corn, cassava, etc.) 13 0.30
Forestry Principal farm output was timber 6 0.14
Influential person
a
Professional Adoption decision was influenced by an extension agent or professional consultant 28 0.64
Farmer Adoption decision was influenced by another farmer 9 0.21
None Adoption decision was independent, not strongly influenced by others 12 0.27
Education Education Years of formal education 36 10.5
Gender Female Number of female respondents 5 0.11
a
Some farmers were influenced by both professionals and other farmers, so some farmers have the value 1 for both of these variables. The total does not sum to 100%.
24 G.E. Frey et al. / Agricultural Systems 105 (2012) 21–32
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Returns – Perceptions about whether the technology is more
(advantage) or less (disadvantage) profitable relative to
alternatives.
Flow – Perceptions about the time frame in which revenues flow
to the investor. Farmers might believe that either long- or
short-term returns, or a mix of both, are preferable.
2
Risk – Perceptions about whether a technology is more or less
risky than alternatives. This might include risk due to variability
in yields and prices, or risk due to a lack of information.
Complexity – Perceptions about how difficult the technology is
to manage relative to alternatives.
Compatibility – Perceptions about how the technology fits both
into the users’ values and beliefs and also within the set of other
activities and technologies they are using.
Recalling that the interview questions were open-ended, in
many cases farmers cited more than one positive or negative from
each of the above categories. However, if we assume that each po-
sitive or negative that a farmer cites is of approximately equal
importance to him or her, then it is possible to generate an index
of perceptions. Therefore, we counted total number of both posi-
tive and negative responses for each category. The total count of
responses for positive and negative perceptions in each category
was interpreted as representing that farmer’s perception of how
advantageous or disadvantageous the technology is for that cate-
gory of system characteristics relative to his/her alternatives.
The count of perceived positive and negative characteristics in
each category was used to calculate an index of the relative per-
ceived net benefit of silvopasture for that category. The resulting
‘‘net perception’’ index is equal to the total number of positive re-
sponses in a category minus the total number of negative re-
sponses in that same category. When the number of positive
responses greatly outweighs the number of negative responses,
we let this act as a proxy for the fact that the farmer perceives that
the technology has a net advantage or benefit over other systems.
The net perception index as described here may not be the ideal
measure of a farmer’s perceptions, as it is based on the assumption
that the farmer places approximately equal weight on the impor-
tance of each of the different factors he or she mentioned. We con-
cluded that a farmer who cited three positive and one negative
aspect of returns (net perception index for returns = 2) was more
likely to have a favorable outlook towards the returns characteris-
tics of the system than another farmer who cited zero positive and
one negative (net perception for returns = 1). Therefore, we con-
clude that this measure is not systematically biased, and it is the
best available measure of farmers’ perceptions.
4.2. Independent variables
As previously described, farm ‘‘Scale’’ was classified into three
groups to create one class of explanatory (independent) variables.
Dummy variables were created for small and medium farm scales,
with large scale acting as the default class. Similarly, dummy vari-
ables were created for the farm ‘‘Type’’ class of variables: perennial
crop farms, cattle raising farms, and annual crop farms, with forest
product farms acting as the default class.
Farmers’ responses about ‘‘Influential people’’ (another class of
explanatory variable) in their adoption decision were classified
into three variables: Professional,Farmer, and None.‘Professional’’
included government agency (INTA) extension agents and occa-
sionally consultants such as veterinarians and consulting foresters.
The ‘‘Farmer’’ variable included non-professionals such as a peer
land managers, neighbors and friends, and members of a farm
cooperative or association. ‘‘None’’ suggests the lack of in-depth
conversations with others about the system but does not exclude
seeing silvopasture systems in practice. Some adopters indicated
that both professionals and other farmers helped them make their
decision, so the sum of the percentages of Professional,Farmer, and
None do not add up to 100%.
The final explanatory variable was education of the farm man-
ager in years of formal education.
4.3. Hypothesis testing
Several hypotheses were tested on the factors explaining per-
ceptions at the time of adoption, the factors explaining changes
in perceptions over time, and the factors explaining the likelihood
of discontinuance. The hypotheses have to do with the explanatory
factors that affect farmers’ perceptions of silvopasture at the time
of adoption, including other people who were influential in the
adoption decision, farm scale, and farm type.
For instance, the ‘‘Influential person’’ factor may explain percep-
tions at the time of adoption, but not after practicing the system. It
is logical that extension agents, for instance, might collectively
emphasize certain aspects of the system based on received knowl-
edge. We would expect that the impact of influential people would
decline as experience increases. Similarly, small-scale farmers
might be more concerned with the cash flow properties of the sys-
tem, since many farmers are constrained by cash in the short-term.
The costs of the system might be a negative to small-scale farmers
for the same reason.
Each net perception dependent variable was modeled with an
ordinal probit model (Bender and Benner, 2000) as a function of
the independent variables described above, which uses the under-
lying assumption of a normally-distributed dependent variable.
This is because the net perception variable could be negative or po-
sitive, with more observations in the middle of the range (usually 0
or +1), so an ordinal probit regression was likely to fit the data bet-
ter than an ordinal logit (assumption of uniform distribution) or an
ordinal complementary log–log (assumption of a distribution
skewed towards one end) regression.
A log-likelihood value was derived for each of these unrestricted
models. Then restricted models were calculated, excluding each
class of independent variables, to test whether that class of vari-
ables was significant in helping to explain the variability in percep-
tions. The null hypothesis (that the set of variables does not help to
explain perceptions) was tested using a likelihood ratio statistic:
K
¼2ðlnðL
ur
ÞlnðL
r
ÞÞ;
where
K
is the likelihood ratio statistic, and ln(L
ur
) and ln(L
r
) are the
log-likelihood values of the unrestricted and restricted models,
respectively.
K
is distributed as a chi-squared variable with degrees
of freedom equal to the number of explanatory variables excluded
from the restricted model (Wooldridge, 2006).
To test the factors that explained farmers’ likely discontinuance,
farmers’ views of whether or not they were likely to continue
assuming no cost-share payments or in-kind support programs
(dependent variable) was regressed on the net perception catego-
ries and the other farm/famer characteristics previously men-
tioned, using a binomial logit model. Because only one farmer
indicated he would discontinue assuming continued cost-share
and in-kind support, there was not enough variability to perform
a regression analysis under the assumption of continued govern-
ment support.
2
Cash flow is an important aspect of agroforestry systems, because forestry offers a
long term ‘‘bank account’’ but few options for annual income, and agriculture offers
annual income but few opportunities for long-term investment, while agroforestry
offers some of both (Ajayi 2007). In the Fliegel and Kivlin (1966) classification, cash
flow is lumped into the ‘‘returns’’ category, but in reality, for many farmers and
foresters, the total returns of a system is quite distinct from the time period over
which it is paid.
G.E. Frey et al. / Agricultural Systems 105 (2012) 21–32 25
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5. Results and discussion
5.1. Perceptions
There was a large number of distinct responses for the positive
and negative perceptions of silvopasture resulting from the open-
ended nature of the questions. Specifically, there were 23 distinct
positive responses and 27 distinct negative responses. Table 2
shows the overall response rate for each of the perceived positives
at the time of adoption (before) and at the time of the survey sev-
eral years later (after). Negative responses are shown in Table 3.
The vast majority of farm managers of all farm ‘‘Scales’’ and
‘‘Types’’ indicated that most felt silvopasture had been and would
continue to be beneficial for them. This is demonstrated by the fact
that 97.7% of all farmers indicated they would maintain or increase
the area of their farm property dedicated to silvopasture if incen-
tive payments were continued, and 84.1% who would increase or
maintain silvopasture even without incentives. To briefly summa-
rize the perceptions at the time of adoption, a majority of farmers
were optimistic that silvopasture might be able to produce levels
of timber and livestock that would each be comparable to the
amount that would be produced in a single production system
(51%); however, many were also skeptical that this could actually
be achieved principally because of the effects of shade on the pas-
ture, reducing the forage availability for livestock (30%).
Table 4 summarizes the six categories of the net perceptions
variables. Relative to the number of perceived benefits, farmers
identified disadvantages of silvopasture systems less frequently
both before and after adoption. We take this to mean that the
adopters generally have a favorable view of the system.
3
The larg-
est perceived problem before adoption was that forest management
was difficult (18% of the farmers surveyed), followed distantly by
cattle management being difficult (6.8%), and underfunded govern-
ment incentives (6.8%). After adoption, the most commonly per-
ceived problems were compatibility between trees and pasture
(11% of those surveyed), not enough light for good pasture growth
(11%), capital requirements (9%), difficult forest management (9%),
and underfunded government incentives (9%). As will be examined
below in more detail, the findings differed somewhat by farm
‘‘Scale’’, ‘‘Type’’, and ‘‘Influential people’’.
Another interesting result appearing in Tables 2 and 3 is that
very few farmers cited positives or negatives in the Compatibility
category. This is in contrast to much of the adoption–diffusion lit-
erature, where a technology’s compatibility with an adopter’s val-
ues and habits is generally seen as one of the key factors in
adoption (Katz et al., 1963). Unfortunately, this particular study
does not allow us to generalize to the greater population including
non-adopters. Compatibility characteristics may be a driver of non-
adoption for silvopasture, if non-adopters feel that the technology
does not fit in with their farming styles and values. This is an inter-
esting realm for more research.
The consequence of having few responses in the Compatibility
category is that there is generally not sufficient variability to gen-
erate good predictive models with compatibility as the dependent
variable, or to include compatibility as an independent variable in
the logit model for likely discontinuance.
5.1.1. Positive perceptions
Among the perceived benefits at the time of adoption, farmers
mentioned producing two outputs from one plot of land most often
(51% of the farmers interviewed), followed by lower risk from fires
(18%), reduced heat stress on cattle because of shade (18%), weed
reduction and erosion control (16% each), and payment of govern-
ment incentives (14%).
Once the farmers had practiced silvopasture for several years,
their perceptions of benefits changed considerably. The frequency
at which farmers cited the benefit of joint production dropped,
but remained tied for most important with that of shade reducing
heat stress on cattle (27%). Weed reduction was perceived as
important more frequently than before adoption (23%), as was
the production of fast income from cattle (23%), and lower risk of
fire (21%). Experience also raised the perceived value of greater
profits from 11% before to 16% after adoption. Aside from the joint
production perception, the main perception of benefits that de-
creased in frequency was erosion control (from 16% to 9%).
Although it has frequently been noted by researchers (Fassola
et al., 2009), relatively few farmers (2.3–4.5%) in our survey noted
that this intensive silvicultural management inherently leads to a
high-quality timber product, by generating fewer, larger-diameter,
higher-value logs with a higher volume of timber that is free of
knots. This does not necessarily mean that the benefit, which
would be realized at the final timber sale, will not be realized, be-
cause many of the practitioners surveyed had not yet completed a
timber rotation. However, it may indicate that extensionists and
researchers in the region have not conveyed an understanding of
this benefit to the population of adopters.
Observing the perceptions after practicing the system of specific
‘‘Types’’ of farmers (i.e., those who before practicing silvopasture
primarily practiced either cattle-raising, timber production, peren-
nial crop production, or annual crop production) also provided
some insights. Among those who were originally timber producers,
50% indicated that one of the benefits of adding cattle was the
reduction of the risk of fire, and 66.7% indicated that shade helps
cattle. 55.6% of perennial croppers believed that cattle in silvopas-
ture were beneficial because it provides quick income.
Table 2
Categories and rate of responses for farmers’ positive perceptions of silvopasture.
Category Response Before
a
(%)
After
a
(%)
Costs Government provides cost sharing
incentives
14.0 2.3
Silvopasture helps reduce the amount of
weeds
16.3 22.7
Fewer leaf-cutter ants 2.3 0.0
People in stands to monitor things 0.0 2.3
More grass available in winter (frost
protection)
7.0 11.4
Returns More profitable than other systems 14.0 18.2
Shade helps the livestock (less heat
stress)
18.6 27.3
Joint production: Two outputs are
produced from one plot
51.2 29.5
Higher quality pasture (more tender) in
summer
7.0 11.4
Erosion control maintains soil quality 16.3 9.1
Higher cattle stocking rate than open-air
systems
4.7 0.0
Higher timber quality 2.3 4.5
Better timber growth 0.0 2.3
Flow Long-term investment 7.0 18.2
Cattle provide quick income 11.6 27.3
Thinning provides quick income 2.3 2.3
Risk Income diversification 2.3 4.5
Lower risk of fire because cattle keep
grass short and green
18.6 20.5
Fewer livestock health problems 0.0 2.3
Complex System is practical 7.0 4.5
Compatibility Environmental benefits 2.3 0.0
Pleasurable work 2.3 2.3
Desire to reforest 2.3 0.0
a
At the time of adoption (‘‘Before’’) and at the time of the survey, after practicing
the system (‘‘After’’).
3
However, since the sample is only adopters, these perceptions are not general-
izable to the larger population of all farmers. It is likely that the adopters had better
perceptions of the system to begin with, which is why they chose to adopt.
26 G.E. Frey et al. / Agricultural Systems 105 (2012) 21–32
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5.1.2. Negative perceptions
After having practiced the system for a number of years, the
majority of farmers believed that an adequate amount of forage
could be produced in the partial shade as indicated by the fact that
only 14% believed that there was not enough light in silvopasture
for good pasture growth, and in fact, a 11% of farmers believed that
forage production was even higher in silvopasture then in conven-
tional pasture during the winter. Farmers perceived that forage
could be maintained on the silvopasture plots through intensive
management of the trees including thinning and pruning. Several
farmers indicated that silvicultural management was difficult to
master, with 2.3% indicating pasture management, 4.5% livestock
management, and 9.1% forest management was difficult. However
these perceptions of difficulty and complexity were lower after
practicing the system.
Some farmers disagreed that managing for timber and livestock
on the same plot of land was beneficial in terms of joint production
of the two products. In particular 16% of all farmers (9% of large-,
6% of medium-, and 31% of small-scale farmers), said that they
would likely decrease the amount of their land under silvopasture
if no subsidies of incentives were available from the government. A
minority of these (5% of all farmers) directly volunteered in the
interview that the reason they would not continue was because
the trade-off between timber production and livestock production
was not worthwhile overall; that is, they believed that in general
forestry and cattle-ranching should be managed separately on dis-
tinct plots rather than as a silvopasture system. Other reasons for
discontinuing silvopasture are discussed below in the ‘‘Likelihood
of continuance’’ logit model.
5.1.3. Change in perceptions over time
From the increases and decreases in the frequency of specific re-
sponses Tables 2 and 3 over time, it is apparent that many of the
farmers’ perceptions of the advantages and disadvantages changed
over time from the moment of the adoption decision to the time of
the survey several years later. Many of the positive perceptions in-
creased somewhat. The perceptions that the cash flow characteris-
tics of silvopasture are beneficial generally increased over time.
Another notable increase in positive perceptions is an increase in
positive perceptions relating to microclimate (shade helps cattle
and grass perform better in heat, frost protection).
Perhaps the most notable change in positive perceptions is in
the Returns category, where the frequency of the response that sil-
vopasture was beneficial because it provides two outputs from one
piece of land decreased from 51% to 30% over time. Also, there was
a decrease in the number of farmers believe that government sub-
sidies were an important advantage of silvopasture, probably be-
cause the government did not end up paying many of the
requested subsidies.
Most of the negative perceptions that had relatively high fre-
quencies before adoption decreased in frequency after several
years. Prominently, many fewer farmers stated that there would
not be enough light in silvopasture systems to have good pasture
growth. Also, the number of farmers who believed that forest
and livestock management were difficult decreased somewhat.
5.1.4. Comparison to perceptions of silvopasture in other countries
Table 5 compares the most frequently cited silvopasture posi-
tives and negatives from previous studies in the Americas to the
findings of this study. Farmers in Argentina less frequently cited
possible public environmental benefits of silvopasture systems
than those in Florida, USA (Shrestha et al., 2004), Copán, Honduras
(Pérez, 2006), or Quindío, Colombia (Calle, 2008). Silvopasture sys-
tems in Argentina aid carbon sequestration (Fassola et al., 2009,
2010), help prevent eroded soil from entering water sources, and
may be of moderate habitat value in some situations. However,
while farmers from our study did mention benefits for the with-
in-farm environment (40.9% of all farmers indicated that the
microclimate was improved in at least one way), only one farmer
(2.3%) in our sample mentioned that public environmental benefits
such as water quality, biodiversity or carbon sequestration were
among the reasons he decided to adopt silvopasture systems. Aside
from differences in research design, one possible reason why farm-
ers in Argentina may view silvopasture as a productive system
rather than an environmental system is that the majority of adopt-
ers use exotic tree species, in contrast to systems in USA and
Honduras that use primarily native species. Another possible
explanation that environmental values are not high on Argentines’
list of positives and negatives of silvopasture might be that
researchers have focused more in the past on increased productiv-
ity in the economic sense.
Table 3
Categories and rate of responses for farmers’ negative perceptions of silvopasture.
Category Response Before
a
(%)
After
a
(%)
Costs High capital investment 7.0 9.1
Lack of time to manage the plot 4.7 4.5
Watering livestock is time-consuming/
costly
2.3 2.3
Ant control 0.0 2.3
Returns Not enough light for good pasture growth 30.2 13.6
Soil compaction 2.3 0.0
Animals harm trees 4.7 4.5
Competition between grass and trees 4.7 2.3
Poor timber growth and form 0.0 4.5
Cattle prefer sun in winter 0.0 2.3
Long time for timber returns 2.3 0.0
Flow Lack of land available to dedicate to
agroforestry
7.0 2.3
Loss of use of pasture while trees are
established
4.7 4.5
Risk Risky markets for livestock 0.0 2.3
Trees may fall on fence 2.3 0.0
Government often does not pay cost-share
incentives
7.0 9.1
Lack of information or studies available 4.7 4.5
Animal health suffers amongst trees (more
parasites)
4.7 4.5
One specific tree species’ seeds may cause
spontaneous abortion in cattle
2.3 0.0
Institutional insecurity of government
(may raise agriculture taxes, etc.)
0.0 4.5
Cattle thefts more frequent with trees 0.0 2.3
Complexity Forest management is difficult 16.3 9.1
Pasture management is difficult 2.3 2.3
Livestock management is difficult 7.0 4.5
Compatibility between trees and pasture 9.3 11.4
Compatibility Desired tree species were not allowed in
the program
2.3 0.0
Livestock less docile after time amongst
trees
0.0 2.3
Cleaning up pruned branches is tedious 0.0 2.3
a
At the time of adoption (‘‘Before’’) and at the time of the survey, after practicing
the system (‘‘After’’).
Table 4
Summary statistics of net perception indices (dependent variables) before and after
adoption.
Before adoption After adoption
Mean St.
dev.
Min Max Mean St.
dev.
Min Max
Costs 0.26 0.49 1 1 0.20 0.70 12
Returns 0.70 1.08 2 3 0.75 1.14 33
Flow 0.09 0.75 2 3 0.41 0.79 12
Risk 0.00 0.65 1 2 0.00 0.89 32
Complexity 0.28 0.67 31 0.23 0.60 21
Compatibility 0.05 0.30 11 0.02 0.15 10
G.E. Frey et al. / Agricultural Systems 105 (2012) 21–32 27
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5.2. Independent variables
Table 1 summarizes the variables that were used as indepen-
dent variables in the regression with perceptions. Most adopters
in our survey (63.6%) indicated that they had contact with profes-
sionals such as INTA extension agents, veterinarians, or consulting
foresters, who influenced their decision to adopt the silvopasture
system. About 20.5% indicated that conversations with other farm-
ers had influenced their decision, and 27.3% stated that they had no
in-depth conversations prior to adoption that influenced their
decision.
5.3. Explanatory models of perceptions
5.3.1. At time of adoption
For the ordinal probit model of the net perceptions of silvopas-
ture in Table 6, we tested restrictions on the full models by exclud-
ing each group of explanatory variables, one at a time (‘‘Influential
people’’ in the adoption decision, then farm ‘‘Scale’’, then farm
‘‘Type’’), and using the log-likelihood value of the restricted and
unrestricted model to calculate the likelihood ratio statistic. We
found that there was no group of explanatory variables that was
easily excluded from all the models without losing explanatory
power in some of the models. The explanatory variables for farm
‘‘Type’’ category had the least overall statistical significance, with
significance only at the 0.1 alpha-level in a few of the models.
However, even when using the restricted model for specific
explanatory variable categories, where the likelihood ratio statistic
suggested it might be appropriate, there were only minor changes
in statistical significance between the restricted and unrestricted
models, and all coefficients that were significantly different from
zero at any alpha 60.1 do not change sign or approximate magni-
tude. It was decided to use the unrestricted models for all
categories.
The lack of statistical significance of the ‘‘Professional’’ and
‘‘Farmer’’ variables in the ‘‘Influential people’’ class in virtually all
the models means that there is no evidence to support the hypoth-
esis that the type of people who influence the decision adoption of
whether or not to adopt has a strong effect on the perceptions of
silvopasture. That is to say, aside from generally helping farmers
decide to adopt, there is no evidence that, as a group, professionals
or other farmers consistently alter the adopters’ perceptions about
specific benefits or challenges of the system.
Recall that the signs of the coefficients, as calculated in our
model, represent the effect of the explanatory variables towards
alower ordered value of the dependent variable, which is a conven-
tion from the statistical software utilized in the analysis (SAS), but
makes the results somewhat counterintuitive. In other words, a
negative (positive) sign on the coefficient of an explanatory vari-
able means that a higher value of that variable makes the depen-
dent variable less (more) likely to have a lower value. For our
dummy explanatory variables, a negative (positive) coefficient
means that if a farm/farmer falls into that category, then he is more
likely to have said more (fewer) negative things and fewer (more)
positive things.
The model for Flows perceptions showed the most significance
among the coefficients of the explanatory variables. Of particular
note, small- and medium-scale farmers were more likely to have
Table 5
Comparison of principal positive and negative perceptions from the literature on silvopasture systems.
Study Principal positive perceptions Principal negative perceptions
Shrestha et al. (2004) Sense of stewardship, environmental protection, diversify
income
Fire hazard, uncertainty about government regulations, length
of investment
Pérez (2006) Economic (timber, firewood, posts, shade) and ecological
(water quality) goods and services
Lack of cheap seeds/seedlings, lack of support from institutions,
high labor investment, tree mortality
Calle (2008) Reduced used of inputs, improved conditions for cattle,
increased wildlife diversity
High capital investment, lack of information and knowledge
This study: before adoption Joint production of two outputs, less heat stress on livestock,
lower forest fire risk
Not enough light for good pasture growth, difficulty of
managing trees to allow light
This study: after adoption Joint production of two outputs, less heat stress on livestock,
quick income from livestock, reduced quantity of weeds,
lower forest fire risk
Not enough light for good pasture growth, compatibility of
trees and pasture, high capital investment, difficulty of
managing trees to allow light
Table 6
Coefficients and log-likelihood values of the ordinal probit models for net perceptions (count of positive responses minus count of negative responses) for each category of
perception, at time of adoption.
Costs Returns Flow Risk Complexity Compatibility
Professional 0.25 0.49 0.42 0.67 0.04 11.29
Farmer 0.22 0.52 0.62 0.92
0.49 1.77
Small 0.24 1.08 2.08
⁄⁄
0.83 0.08 1.95
Medium 0.22 0.39 1.39
⁄⁄
0.30 0.61 0.92
Perennial 0.01 0.15 1.13 1.20 0.15 1.81
Cattle 0.45 0.73 0.79 1.24
⁄⁄
0.14 2.17
Crops 0.24 0.38 1.63
⁄⁄
0.80 0.51 1.56
Education 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.19
⁄⁄⁄
0.01 0.13
Unrestricted model log-likelihood 29.08
a
56.71
a
32.62
a
31.70
a
31.90
a
8.31
a
Restricted model w/out influential 29.32 58.15 33.66 34.52
32.35 14.05
⁄⁄⁄
Restricted model w/out scale 29.37 57.80 35.83
⁄⁄
32.19 32.60 9.85
Restricted model w/out type 29.50 58.48 35.03 34.08 32.78 11.49
Model is for the probabilities of the dependent variable having lower ordered values, i.e. a positive value for the coefficient represents that an increase in that independent
variable increases the probability of the dependent variable having a lower value.
,
⁄⁄
,
⁄⁄⁄
Represent statistical significance at the 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01 alpha-levels. For the log-likelihood statistics of restricted models, a significant outcome means that there is
evidence to reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients of the excluded variables are all equal to zero.
a
Both Pearson and Likelihood Ratio
v
2
lack-of-fit statistics have a large p-value (>0.1), demonstrating that there are no problems with the fit of the model.
28 G.E. Frey et al. / Agricultural Systems 105 (2012) 21–32
Author's personal copy
stated positive things about the cash flow characteristics of silvo-
pasture than large-scale farmers (at alpha = 0.05). This is intuitive,
because smaller-scale farmers are probably more constrained for
cash in the short-term. Also, large-scale farmers can produce yearly
income even with a system that has poor cash flow by having
numerous parcels, staggered temporally, so the cash flow of any
particular parcel is not particularly important. A small- or med-
ium-scale farmer cannot do this because timber harvest on an
exceedingly small area becomes costly. This places a premium on
a system that inherently generates income on a frequent basis. In
addition, annual croppers were less likely than forest farmers to
say positive things about silvopasture’s cash flow properties (sig-
nificant at alpha = 0.05), and cattle ranchers and perennial farmers
(the perennials in this case still have annual harvest, although the
plant remains intact) showed the same tendency, but the differ-
ence was not significant. This is intuitively appealing since these
systems all produce income on an annual basis, which would gen-
erally be viewed more favorably than forestry or silvopasture,
which may not produce income during the first few years since
cattle are not introduced into the system until trees are large en-
ough to withstand them.
The Risk perceptions model also showed that several explana-
tory variables had predictive power in explaining the variability
in the number of positive and negative perceptions with regards
to risk. The variable with the highest level of statistical significance
is education (significant at alpha = 0.01). Farmers with higher lev-
els of education were more likely to have a positive perception of
the risk involved with silvopasture. The reason why this might
be the case is not clear. In addition, cattle farmers were less likely
than forest farmers to have a positive perception of silvopasture’s
risk (alpha = 0.05). Annual and perennial farmers showed the same
tendency, but without statistical significance. This is logical be-
cause one of the principal risk factors is forest fire. Forest farmers
see silvopasture as positive in terms of risk because adding cattle
to the forests they already have reduces the risk of forest fires.
However, cattle ranchers would be less likely to perceive this as
a relative benefit since they previously had the cattle but not the
trees.
In the models for Costs,Returns,Complexity, and Compatibility,
none of the individual explanatory variables were statistically dif-
ferent than zero. Also, we could not reject the null hypotheses that
any of the set of variables had coefficients that were all equal to
zero for the Costs,Returns, and Complexity models. This indicates
that our models do not do a good job explaining farmers’ percep-
tions based on the characteristics in those models. We could not
detect any difference of perceptions of benefits or challenges be-
tween farmers influenced in their adoption decision by different
types of people, farms of differing scale or type, or the education
level of the farmer.
However, some of the signs of the coefficients in these models
are of interest, even if not statistically significant. In the Costs per-
ception model, farmers who typically raise cattle or annual crops
were more likely to have said more negative things and fewer po-
sitive things about the costs of silvopasture than forest farmers.
This is logical because many of the initial costs of silvopasture,
including site preparation and seedlings, are more directly related
to the forestry aspect of the system. Forest farmers would be more
accustomed to these costs. However, the high costs of forestry
practices also lead to high returns, which may explain the negative
sign on cattle and annual crop farmers in the returns model, mean-
ing they were likely to have a higher number of positive percep-
tions and fewer negatives.
5.3.2. After several years of experience with the technology
In the probit model of net perceptions several years after adop-
tion (Table 7), influences by professionals such as extension agents
or consultants in the adoption decision only had a significant im-
pact at the alpha = 0.1 level in the Costs perceptions model. The
quite low level of significance for ‘‘Influential people’’ in most of
the models is intuitive and can be explained by the fact that influ-
ences from the time of adoption are less likely to continue influ-
encing farmers’ perceptions of the technology, after having
several years to practice it. In Costs, farmers who were influenced
by extension agents were more likely to have a more negative view
of silvopasture’s costs. This is quite counterintuitive because those
farmers who are more connected to extension agents are probably
the farmers who are most likely to have received incentive pay-
ments or in-kind material support to begin silvopasture implemen-
tation. One possible explanation of this might be that if a farmer is
receiving in-kind support of supplies, he has little control over
where the extension agents obtain the materials and for what
price. Further, the extension agents probably have an incentive to
provide high-quality material, even if relatively expensive (high-
quality tree seedlings from a government or private nursery,
etc.), because they need to demonstrate positive results to the
farmers. On the other hand, farmers left to obtain supplies on their
own might find ways to obtain the materials relatively more
cheaply. For instance, they might dig up naturally-regenerated tree
seedlings from a neighbor’s forestry plot, or collect seeds and start
their own micro-nursery.
Table 7
Coefficients and log-likelihood values of the ordinal probit models for net perceptions (count of positive responses minus count of negative responses) for each category of
perception, at time of the survey (several years after adoption).
Costs Returns Flow Risk Complexity Compatibility
Professional 0.70
0.57 0.41 0.43 0.88
Farmer 0.43 0.92
⁄⁄
0.63 0.16 0.06
Small 0.65 0.90 2.31
⁄⁄
1.14 0.60
Medium 0.23 0.34 1.37
⁄⁄
1.40
⁄⁄
1.22
Perennial 0.74 0.30 0.06 1.48
⁄⁄
1.17
Cattle 0.07 0.22 0.04 0.78 1.75
⁄⁄
Crops 0.83 0.20 1.36
1.23
0.31
Education 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.09
0.13
Unrestricted model log-likelihood 39.53
a
59.31
a
36.81
a
45.70
a
24.21
a
Restricted model w/out influential 41.31 62.47
⁄⁄
37.97 46.32 25.50
Restricted model w/out scale 39.89 60.09 40.42
⁄⁄
48.90
⁄⁄
25.76
Restricted model w/out type 43.31
59.43 40.68
48.16 27.33
Model is for the probabilities of the dependent variable having lower ordered values, i.e. a positive value for the coefficient represents that an increase in that independent
variable increases the probability of the dependent variable having a lower value.
,
⁄⁄
,
⁄⁄⁄
Represent statistical significance at the 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01 alpha-levels. For the log-likelihood statistics of restricted models, a significant outcome means that there is
evidence to reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients of the excluded variables are all equal to zero (Wooldridge, 2006, p. 588).
a
Both Pearson and Likelihood Ratio
v
2
lack-of-fit statistics have a large p-value (>0.1), demonstrating that there are no problems with the fit of the model.
G.E. Frey et al. / Agricultural Systems 105 (2012) 21–32 29
Author's personal copy
Having been influenced by other farmers to adopt does have a
significant impact on farmers’ net views of the return characteris-
tics of silvopasture system. In the Returns perceptions model we
could reject the null hypothesis that being influenced by profes-
sionals and/or other farmers to adopt has no effect on positive or
negative perceptions several years later. Specifically, adopters
who were influenced by other farmers to adopt were less likely
to have a lower net perception for returns. We believe that this
is most likely due to some underlying causal factor that we could
not control for in our model. For instance, it is possible that those
farmers who were influenced by other farmers at the time of adop-
tion may be more likely to be members of a cooperative or other
group that would have longer-term impacts on their views.
As in the models for perceptions at the time of adoption, the
models that demonstrated the most predictive power of explana-
tory variable were the Flow and Risk perceptions models. In addi-
tion, the Complexity model had some variables with significant
predictive power. We could not estimate a model for Compatibility
because of insufficient variability in the dependent variable.
Small- and medium-scale farmers were more likely than large-
scale farmers to have a higher net perception of silvopasture’s cash
flow (Flow). Annual cash cropping farmers were more likely to
have a negative view of silvopasture’s risk characteristics than for-
est managers. These results are quite similar to the model of per-
ceptions before adoption.
The model of the perceptions of Risk after several years practic-
ing the system is somewhat different than before adoption. Farm
scale has an impact on perceptions of risk, with small- and med-
ium-scale farmers less likely to have a negative perception of silvo-
pasture risk (only medium-scale farmers had a statistically
significant coefficient value, but the sign is the same for small-scale
farmers and the magnitude is still relatively large). We believe this
is partially because of the role of government support in silvopas-
ture adoption among the different scales, and farmers’ expecta-
tions. Smaller-scale farmers primarily received in-kind support,
and their expectations for support were met, based on their partic-
ipation in farmers’ committees. Small- and medium-scale farmers
who were not members of farmers’ committees in many cases
did not even bother to apply for support, so they did not view lack
of support as a risk. Many of the larger-scale farmers, however, be-
lieved that they would receive financial support. If it was not re-
ceived, this would be attributable to government institutional
insecurity. Also, perennial and annual crop farmers were more
likely to have a negative view of silvopasture’s risk than forest
farmers. This is also compatible with the institutional insecurity
problem. Forest farmers would be accustomed to dealing with
the difficulties of requesting government aid for tree planting,
while perennial and annual croppers would not be. More years of
formal education had the effect of making farmers less likely to
perceive negatively the risk of silvopasture.
In the model of Complexity perceptions, cattle farmers were less
likely to have a negative view of silvopasture’s complexity than
forest farmers, and more educated farmers were more likely to
have a negative view. In our conversations with the farmers, we
noted that forest farmers recognized that they had to change the
way they managed their trees (more pruning, thinning, etc.). Cattle
farmers, on the other hand, did not think that their management of
the cattle was any more difficult than before, since they apply the
same vaccines, waterings, supplemental feeding, etc. This is some-
what counterintuitive because one might expect that by adding
trees to cattle farms, cattle farmers’ operations become more com-
plex. However, it seems that farmers are more willing to accept
complexity created by an added component that provides new
benefits than to accept a more complex management of a compo-
nent they already manage on a day-to-day basis. Tree farmers find
it harder to accept a more complex tree management.
5.3.3. Change over time
It can be seen by comparing the results of the net perceptions
models at adoption and later that some of the coefficients on the
explanatory variables had changed in either sign or statistical sig-
nificance. Perhaps the most notable changes were in the farmers’
net perceptions of Returns. The coefficient for small-scale farmers
became significantly positive and the coefficient for medium-scale
farmers changed from negative to positive (though not significant).
This indicates a lowering expectation of small- and medium-scale
farmers for advantageous returns from silvopasture relative to
large-scale farmers. From observing the data, this change seems
to be mainly driven by a lower proportion of small- and
medium-scale farmers believing that a major benefit of silvopas-
ture is that two products come from the same piece of land, and
an increase in the proportion of large-scale farmers who stated that
shade helps cattle and forage perform better in the summer. Also in
the Returns perceptions model, the coefficients for Cattle and Crops
changed from negative and significant to positive and insignificant.
Managers of cattle and annual cash crop farms were no longer
more likely than forest managers to believe that silvopasture
systems had beneficial returns properties.
5.4. Likelihood of continuance
Most farmers indicated that they had received help starting the
silvopasture system either through government cost-share pro-
grams (57%) or in-kind support. By a wide margin, farmers indi-
cated that they would probably increase the area of land given to
silvopasture if cost-share or in-kind support programs continued.
Only one farmer responded that he would likely decrease the
amount of his land given to silvopasture in the future even with
support programs.
In addition, the majority of farmers (84%) indicated that they
would continue increase or maintain the area under silvopasture
systems, even if no government support were provided. This is a
good indication that these farmers believe that silvopasture is ben-
eficial to them.
We constructed several logit models to determine the factors
that explain farmers’ stated likely discontinuance, if support pro-
grams were to be discontinued. Unfortunately, it was impossible
to include all the potential explanatory variables (net perceptions
at adoption, net perceptions after several years of using the system,
influential people, farm type, farm scale) in a single model, because
this resulted in quasi-complete separation of the data points, due
to the relatively small sample size and large number of explanatory
variables. Therefore, we tested each group of explanatory variables
separately.
The only group of variables that had satisfactory explanatory
power (likelihood ratio p-value <0.1) was the group of net percep-
tions after several years of using the system. Therefore, our models
do not provide support for the hypothesis supported for informa-
tional technology diffusion (Parthasarathy and Bhattacherjee,
1998), that potential discontinuers can be identified by their social
networks and perceptions at the time of adoption. It was necessary
to exclude the Compatibility perception variable because of the ex-
tremely limited variability (there was only a total of one positive
and two negative Compatibility responses), which caused separa-
tion problems with the model. The results of the logit model are gi-
ven in Table 8.
We first note that the logit model shows negative signs on all
the coefficients of the net perceptions. This is the expected sign,
which means that farmers with more positive net perceptions
were less likely (negative sign) to want to discontinue, or con-
versely, those with positive net perceptions were more likely to
state they wanted to continue silvopasture. The two variables with
the greatest magnitude and the only two that are statistically sig-
30 G.E. Frey et al. / Agricultural Systems 105 (2012) 21–32
Author's personal copy
nificant at an alpha-level of 0.1 are the net perceptions of Returns
and of Costs. The large magnitude on the coefficient of Returns is
particularly satisfying from an economic point of view, because it
lends support to the axiom that these farmers are truly seeking
to be profit-maximizers. The coefficient on Costs is also intuitive
economically, since it is often thought that farmers, particularly
small farmers in developing regions, have constraints on the
amount of capital they have to invest, and in their access to credit.
Flow, while not statistically significant, has a relatively large coef-
ficient, which might suggest that constraints also play a role on
from the income side; that is, farmers feel they need to have a cer-
tain amount of income at relatively frequent intervals in order to
get by. Risk and Complexity seemed less important in the continu-
ance/discontinuance decision.
Our model suggests that the perception of high costs is a predic-
tor of discontinuance. This may mean that some adopters will dis-
continue after the first rotation of timber if they do not receive
cost-share payments to prepare and plant the trees for future silvo-
pasture rotations, despite the fact that 84% indicated that they
would continue silvopasture even without payments. The question
of whether or not the front-end investment in silvopasture is a ma-
jor disadvantage of the system that prevents widespread adoption,
as discussed in Dagang and Nair (2003) and Pagiola et al. (2004),
merits more precise research.
6. Conclusions
At the time of adoption, farmer’s perceptions of the cash flow
and risk of silvopasture are explained by several factors including
the scale of the farm they operate, the type of farm they operate,
and their number of years of formal education. Somewhat surpris-
ingly, the type of person who influenced the decision to adopt did
not seem to have a large impact on farmers’ perceptions of posi-
tives and negatives. We were unable to detect a significant impact
of any of these factors on farmers’ perceptions of costs, returns,
complexity or compatibility of silvopasture at the time of adoption.
In general, small-, medium-, and large-scale farmers in north-
eastern Argentina demonstrated different perceptions of the
advantages and disadvantages of silvopasture systems. Once
adopters had several years of practicing silvopasture, smaller-scale
farmers were more likely than large-scale farmers to have a posi-
tive net perception of silvopasture’s cash flow, while larger-scale
farmers were more appreciative than small-scale farmers of silvo-
pasture’s total returns.
Over time, cattle-ranchers and annual croppers became less
likely to believe that silvopasture systems had beneficial returns,
relative to forest managers. However, both cattle-ranchers and an-
nual cash croppers became less likely to see the costs of silvopas-
ture as a problem over time. Perennial croppers’ opinions seemed
to mirror forest managers’, as there were no significant differences
in any of the models.
The only factors that appeared to be powerful explanatory vari-
ables for farmers’ likely discontinuance of silvopasture were their
perceptions of returns and costs after they had experienced the
system for several years. Social contacts from the time of adoption,
perceptions at the time of adoption, farm scale and farm type were
not good predictors of likely discontinuance.
Silvopasture systems may offer many environmental, social,
and economic benefits, but their adoption still lags the benefits
documented by research. To promote these systems, extension
agents and researchers should keep in mind the benefits farmers
believe to be the most important when conversing with potential
future adopters. In particular, an extensionist speaking to small-
scale farmers would do well to stress particularly the advantages
of short-, medium-, and long-term cash flow offered by silvopas-
ture through frequent sale of livestock, semi-frequent sale of tim-
ber thinning, and infrequent clear-cutting of sawtimber. When
speaking to medium- and large-scale farmers, the extensionist
should stress the technical benefits of improved microclimate
(including reduced heat stress on livestock, improved palatability
of forage and protection of forage from winter frosts), reduced like-
lihood of forest fire and reduction of weed species.
Overall, the results of this study do indicate that silvopasture
systems have significant benefits to the farmers who adopt them,
although perceptions of those benefits do change and evolve over
time. These findings in Argentina differ somewhat from those
found in the Southern United States. Further research in other
countries in Latin America may help determine their applicability
in other locations where good livestock and forest products mar-
kets exist. We do feel that, with extension and education, silvopas-
toral activities may be viewed favorably by farmers in areas such as
southern Brazil and Uruguay, Chile, and Central America. The re-
sults also can inform future research on economic analyses of sil-
vopasture systems and differences by ownership size.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank various other researchers and extension
agents from the Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria in
Misiones and Corrientes who aided this work, including Alejandra
Carvallo at Bernardo de Irigoyen, Clory Peruca at Centro Regional
Misiones, Roque Toloza and Miguel Correa at Puerto Rico, Jose Luis
Houriet at Cerro Azul, Horacio Babi at San Javier, Valentín Kurtz at
Eldorado, and numerous others who provided support.
Funding was provided in part by a North Carolina State Univer-
sity Seed Grant.
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32 G.E. Frey et al. / Agricultural Systems 105 (2012) 21–32
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... However, high cost of cocoa rehabilitation and replanting could be factors preventing them from increasing the number and size of cocoa farm (Konate et al. 2016;Kouassi et al. 2021a, b). Several studies (Chatelain et al. 2010;Konate et al. 2016;Ruf et al. 2015) in recent times have also reported of declining farm size and number of cocoa plantations in Côte d'Ivoire which Agroforestry perceptions include the individuals' views and interpretation of the agroforestry systems based on attitude, level of education, location and understanding (Beer and Theuvsen 2020;Frey et al. 2012). From this study it appears the level of knowledge about agroforestry among cocoa farmers in both Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire was very low, even though many of them admitted practicing agroforestry on their cocoa farms. ...
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