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On the Epistemology of the Inexact Science
... The Delphi method is a widely used technique to define standards, therapies, and care procedures based on the opinions of groups of experts [38][39][40]. ...
... Here, 228 surgeons, members of the Italian Society of Surgeons, were asked to find a possible consensus on risk factors for MRSA, using the Delphi method [38][39][40]. The questions, based on a review of the literature and our previous research, concerned major and minor risk factors for and protective factors against SSIs due to MRSA. ...
Background
Surgical site infections (SSIs) constitute a major clinical problem in terms of morbidity, mortality, duration of hospital stay, and overall costs. The bacterial pathogens implicated most frequently are Streptococcus pyogenes (S. pyogenes) and Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus). The incidence of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) SSIs is increasing significantly. Since these infections have a significant impact on hospital budgets and patients’ health, their diagnosis must be anticipated and therapy improved. The first step should be to evaluate risk factors for MRSA SSIs.
Methods
Through a literature review, we identified possible major and minor risk factors for, and protective factors against MRSA SSIs. We then submitted statements on these factors to 228 Italian surgeons to determine, using the Delphi method, the degree of consensus regarding their importance. The consensus was rated as positive if >80% of the voters agreed with a statement and as negative if >80% of the voters disagreed. In other cases, no consensus was reached.
Results
There was positive consensus that sepsis, >2 weeks of hospitalization, age >75 years, colonization by MRSA, and diabetes were major risk factors for MRSA SSIs. Other possible major risk factors, on which a consensus was not reached, e.g., prior antibiotic use, were considered minor risk factors. Other minor risk factors were identified. An adequate antibiotic prophylaxis, laparoscopic technique, and infection committee surveillance were considered protective factors against MRSA SSIs. All these factors might be used to build predictive criteria for identifying SSI due to MRSA.
Conclusions
In order to help to recognize and thus promptly initiate an adequate antibiotic therapy for MRSA SSIs, we designed a gradation of risk and protective factors. Validation, ideally prospective, of this score is now required. In the case of a SSI, if the risk that the infection is caused by MRSA is high, empiric antibiotic therapy should be started after debriding the wound and collecting material for culture.
... However, such quantitative methods also encountered serious limitations for studying complex and changing situations such as those found in business, and the result was a renewed debate in the 1960s in favour of qualitative methods in both the Rand Corporation (Helmer and Rescher 1959;Landeta 1999) and in the second Chicago School, where it crystallised into what became known as the "new" or second Chicago school, headed by Glasser and Strauss (1967), authors of the Grounded Theory, where the techniques and procedures of analysis are designed to bring some scientific precision and rigour to the research process (Strauss 1987). ...
... Resorting to subjective judgement -i.e., what the experts say-does not mean looking into a crystal ball or seeking advice from a fortune teller or futurologist; it does not involve a rejection of scientific methodology. On the contrary, the purpose is to operate scientifically with these experts, developing methods and techniques that will make it possible to obtain and use the subjective information they provide in an explicit, reasoned and systematic way, ensuring its effectiveness and the highest possible degree of objectivity (Helmer and Rescher 1959). In short, the purpose is to view scientific methodology in less restricted terms (Landeta 1999). ...
Articles on the research methodology to be used in Business Economics generally address the key aspects involved in designing the research, such as procedure, techniques of evidence gathering and analysis and associated tests of rigor and quality. However, researchers involved in some of the more “uncommon” scientific research methodologies (albeit necessary in social science) such as case studies have some rather more existential questions (Why and for what purpose should one use case studies in research?). They need answers to these questions if they are to overcome the technical problems of the research process and, above all, the prejudice against such methodologies encountered amongst the scientific community. As well as addressing the key aspects of research design, this paper sets out to discuss the raison d'être of case study as a scientific research methodology. In doing so, it will use three principal questions in order to approach the discussion from a different perspective. These three questions are: is it desirable, is it necessary and is it possible to perform research using case studies? In answering these questions, it is hoped to provide robust arguments that will justify the use of this methodology, as well as substantial elements for building appropriate and rigorous designs for scientifically-based and focused case study research.
... A lack of a philosophical foundation could lead to inconsistent conceptualizations within a study, which could result in poor research practices and less compelling findings (Gorman 2011;McGregor and Murnane 2010). Despite this view, it should be noted that during the formative years of the Delphi approach, Helmer and Rescher (1959) proposed philosophical underpinnings rooted in the Lockean tradition (i.e., a representation of any problem or issue will be constructed empirically and inductively), which seem to align with technological forecasting for which the Delphi approach was widely known for (Linstone and Turoff 2002). Linstone and Turoff (2002) suggest that during the formative years of the Delphi approach the classic epistemologies of Western philosophy represented by Locke, Leibniz, Kant, Hegel, and Singer may have been employed to give form and shape to the Delphi approach. ...
... A lack of a philosophical foundation could lead to inconsistent conceptualizations within a study, which could result in poor research practices and less compelling findings (Gorman 2011;McGregor and Murnane 2010). Despite this view, it should be noted that during the formative years of the Delphi approach, Helmer and Rescher (1959) proposed philosophical underpinnings rooted in the Lockean tradition (i.e., a representation of any problem or issue will be constructed empirically and inductively), which seem to align with technological forecasting for which the Delphi approach was widely known for (Linstone and Turoff 2002). Linstone and Turoff (2002) suggest that during the formative years of the Delphi approach the classic epistemologies of Western philosophy represented by Locke, Leibniz, Kant, Hegel, and Singer may have been employed to give form and shape to the Delphi approach. ...
Researchers in Social Sciences and Global Public Health have found the Delphi method to be a successful tool for identifying and prioritizing issues in decision-making. The Delphi method is a systematic technique for gathering information about a topic by asking a group of subject matter experts a series of questions. The Delphi method involves experts who are knowledgeable about a certain subject so that they can forecast outcomes for future research, predict the likelihood of an event, or reach a consensus on certain topics. While the Delphi method is not an ideal tool for all research within the social sciences and global public health, it can be adapted to address a range of issues in a variety of disciplines and research areas. The ensuing chapter discusses the characteristics of the Delphi method, including criticisms, steps for conducting a Delphi study, its uses as well as highlighting certain advantages and disadvantages.
... Furthermore, Walsh (1942) In Walsh's (1951) early view, therefore, historians do not explain a historical consequence by reference to general laws but instead 'by tracing its intrinsic relations to other events and locating it in its historical context' (p.59). Similarly, some in the field of production have argued historical colligation, unlike scientific laws tend to be delimited both temporally and spatially (Ball, 1972;Graham, 1983;Helmer & Rescher, 1959;Passmore, 1962;Rescher, 1988;Walsh, 1951). According to Kuukkanen (2015), colligations 'have clear and restricted temporal and spatial references, while theoretical concepts apply to a large set of phenomena, which is perhaps infinite in some cases' (p.110). ...
History education stakeholders in England have consistently judged that some students find historical writing difficult. The resources provided by such stakeholders, however, have often demonstrated wastage, incoordination, and replication. For example, two largely disconnected discourses have developed initiatives regarding history students’ extended writing: ‘genre theorists’ and the ‘history teachers’ extended writing movement’. Drawing on Basil Bernstein’s work, some participants in both discourses have suggested they are ‘recontextualising’ academic history for the purposes of secondary education. Participants in these two discourses, however, have tended to talk past one another. One reason communication has been difficult is because of differing assumptions between the two discourses regarding what the curricular goals for students’ extended historical writing should be. Using Bernstein’s model as an interpretative framework, this thesis therefore aimed to perform curricular theorisation in order to help establish more commonly held curricular goals for history education stakeholders. A case study of a sequence of A-Level lessons on the causes of the Salem witch trials was conducted. During lesson planning, texts by historians and philosophers of history were analysed to determine teachable curricular goals for extended written historical causal explanations. Students’ essays were analysed to determine which of the goals the students had appeared to achieve, as well as to identify further possible goals that had not been preempted during the planning of the lessons. Finally, feedback was received from academic experts on the Salem witch trials on the appropriacy of the curricular goals and the extent to which the students had achieved them. The thesis identifies a variety of curricular goals from academic history which A-Level students with a range of prior-attainment levels were able to achieve. Based on the study, these goals and criteria for history curriculum designers when determining further curricular goals for students’ extended historical writing are recommended.
... In this study, experts were asked to complete webbased questions in four rounds via Qualtrics (2019), providing feedback and working to create consensus on what should be included in a basic NE training (Iqbal & Pipon-Young, 2009). We used survey anonymity, controlled feedback, and statistical analysis to reduce influences of dominant participants, group pressure, and confidentiality (Dalkey, 1972;Helmer & Rescher, 1959;Hsu & Sanford, 2007;Ludlow, 1975). Consistent with Delphi methodology, we also used levels of consensus between members, choice of experts, and data collection procedures to provide evidence of the credibility of the NE platform created by this Delphi Study (Thangaratinam & Redman, 2005). ...
A Delphi Study was carried out to investigate what experts considered essential components for integrating neuroeducation into trauma-informed counseling practice. After initial recruitment, a total of 14 trauma-informed counseling experts participated in a 4-round Delphi Study, in which main areas of brain education and associated educational methods were identified. Additionally, a richer description of the perceived impact of neuroeducation on clients was discussed. The results of this Delphi Study support the integration of a number of neuroeducation topics and methods into trauma-informed counseling practice and further support the need for incorporation of neuroeducation into counselor education and supervision.
... The water quality index (WQI) developed by Horton and Brown et al. was based on arithmetic aggregation function. Several other scientists and researchers have developed water quality index (WQI) on the basis of the remaining four types of WQI aggregation functions: multiplicative aggregation function [12,13,14,15], geometric mean [16,17,18,19], harmonic mean [20] and minimum operator [21]. In order to meet water supply and sanitation provisions of the reviewed 1977 United Nations declaration that, "all people irrespective of their development, economic and social condition are entitled to have access to drinking water in good quality and quantities", the Federal Government of Nigeria directed and encouraged the establishment of State Water Supply Agency and State Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Agency in each State [22]. ...
This study was carried out to assess the water quality for Taraba State Water Supply Agency with a particular focus on the water distribution districts in Jalingo metropolis using water quality index (WQI) technique. The purpose of WQI assessment is to transform several physico-chemical parameters of water into a single number that is understandable by both professionals and lay people. Ten important physico-chemical parameters used in the aggregation of the WQI were: colour, temperature, turbidity, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), nitrate (NO 3), calcium hardness, fluoride and chloride composition. The water samples analyzed were obtained from five water distribution districts of the Jalingo metropolis namely: Karofi well field (1), Karofi well field (2), Sintali, Central district and Magami highlift. The comparison of the results of the physico-chemical parameters with the standards recommended by WHO and NSDWQ showed that they were within the limit specified by these agencies with the exception of colour, turbidity and fluoride of some samples. Furthermore, results of the physico-chemical analysis were subjected to Analysis of variation (ANOVA) using data analysis add-in in Microsoft excel 2016. The result showed that there exists no significant difference in the physio-chemical parameters of the samples from all the study areas. The results of calculation WQI showed that the index values ranged from 36.70 to 48.55 which lies within the water quality rating of "good" and therefore fit for human consumption and other domestic utilization.
... The water quality index (WQI) developed by Horton and Brown et al. was based on arithmetic aggregation function. Several other scientists and researchers have developed water quality index (WQI) on the basis of the remaining four types of WQI aggregation functions: multiplicative aggregation function [12,13,14,15], geometric mean [16,17,18,19], harmonic mean [20] and minimum operator [21]. In order to meet water supply and sanitation provisions of the reviewed 1977 United Nations declaration that, "all people irrespective of their development, economic and social condition are entitled to have access to drinking water in good quality and quantities", the Federal Government of Nigeria directed and encouraged the establishment of State Water Supply Agency and State Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Agency in each State [22]. ...
This study was carried out to assess the water quality for Taraba State Water Supply Agency with a particular focus on the water distribution districts in Jalingo metropolis using water quality index (WQI) technique. The purpose of WQI assessment is to transform several physico-chemical parameters of water into a single number that is understandable by both professionals and lay people. Ten important physico-chemical parameters used in the aggregation of the WQI were: colour, temperature, turbidity, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), nitrate (NO 3), calcium hardness, fluoride and chloride composition. The water samples analyzed were obtained from five water distribution districts of the Jalingo metropolis namely: Karofi well field (1), Karofi well field (2), Sintali, Central district and Magami highlift. The comparison of the results of the physico-chemical parameters with the standards recommended by WHO and NSDWQ showed that they were within the limit specified by these agencies with the exception of colour, turbidity and fluoride of some samples. Furthermore, results of the physico-chemical analysis were subjected to Analysis of variation (ANOVA) using data analysis add-in in Microsoft excel 2016. The result showed that there exists no significant difference in the physio-chemical parameters of the samples from all the study areas. The results of calculation WQI showed that the index values ranged from 36.70 to 48.55 which lies within the water quality rating of "good" and therefore fit for human consumption and other domestic utilization.
... The water quality index (WQI) developed by Horton and Brown et al. was based on arithmetic aggregation function. Several other scientists and researchers have developed water quality index (WQI) on the basis of the remaining four types of WQI aggregation functions: multiplicative aggregation function [12,13,14,15], geometric mean [16,17,18,19], harmonic mean [20] and minimum operator [21]. In order to meet water supply and sanitation provisions of the reviewed 1977 United Nations declaration that, "all people irrespective of their development, economic and social condition are entitled to have access to drinking water in good quality and quantities", the Federal Government of Nigeria directed and encouraged the establishment of State Water Supply Agency and State Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Agency in each State [22]. ...
This study was carried out to assess the water quality for Taraba State Water Supply Agency with a particular focus on the water distribution districts in Jalingo metropolis using water quality index (WQI) technique. The purpose of WQI assessment is to transform several physico-chemical parameters of water into a single number that is understandable by both professionals and lay people. Ten important physico-chemical parameters used in the aggregation of the WQI were: colour, temperature, turbidity, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), nitrate (NO 3), calcium hardness, fluoride and chloride composition. The water samples analyzed were obtained from five water distribution districts of the Jalingo metropolis namely: Karofi well field (1), Karofi well field (2), Sintali, Central district and Magami highlift. The comparison of the results of the physico-chemical parameters with the standards recommended by WHO and NSDWQ showed that they were within the limit specified by these agencies with the exception of colour, turbidity and fluoride of some samples. Furthermore, results of the physico-chemical analysis were subjected to Analysis of variation (ANOVA) using data analysis add-in in Microsoft excel 2016. The result showed that there exists no significant difference in the physio-chemical parameters of the samples from all the study areas. The results of calculation WQI showed that the index values ranged from 36.70 to 48.55 which lies within the water quality rating of "good" and therefore fit for human consumption and other domestic utilization.
... The water quality index (WQI) developed by Horton and Brown et al. was based on arithmetic aggregation function. Several other scientists and researchers have developed water quality index (WQI) on the basis of the remaining four types of WQI aggregation functions: multiplicative aggregation function [12,13,14,15], geometric mean [16,17,18,19], harmonic mean [20] and minimum operator [21]. In order to meet water supply and sanitation provisions of the reviewed 1977 United Nations declaration that, "all people irrespective of their development, economic and social condition are entitled to have access to drinking water in good quality and quantities", the Federal Government of Nigeria directed and encouraged the establishment of State Water Supply Agency and State Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Agency in each State [22]. ...
... The structured nature of the Delphi process facilitates controlled feedback, reiteration of concept and reassessment of opinion, and the ability to apply statistical analysis techniques. 6,24 A threshold of !80% of votes in agreement was used to qualify a statement as having reached group consensus. In Delphi methodology, there is no validated level of agreement to be attained. ...
Objective:
The aim of this work is to formulate recommendations based on global expert consensus to guide the surgical community on the safe resumption of surgical and endoscopic activities.
Background:
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused marked disruptions in the delivery of surgical care worldwide. A thoughtful, structured approach to resuming surgical services is necessary as the impact of COVID-19 becomes better controlled. The Coronavirus Global Surgical Collaborative (CVGSC) sought to formulate, through rigorous scientific methodology, a consensus-based recommendations in collaboration with a multidisciplinary group of international experts and policy makers.
Methods:
Recommendations were developed following a Delphi process. Domain topics were formulated and subsequently subdivided into questions pertinent to different aspects of surgical care in the COVID-19 crisis. Forty-four experts from 15 countries across four continents drafted statements based on the specific questions. Anonymous Delphi voting on the statements was performed in two rounds, as well as in a telepresence meeting.
Results:
One hundred statements were formulated across 10 domains. The statements addressed terminology, impact on procedural services, patient/staff safety, managing a backlog of surgeries, methods to restart and sustain surgical services, education, and research. Eightythree of the statements were approved during the first round of Delphi voting, and 11 during the second round. A final telepresence meeting and discussion yielded acceptance of five other statements.
Conclusions:
The Delphi process resulted in 99 recommendations. These consensus statements provide expert guidance, based on scientific methodology, for the safe resumption of surgical activities during the COVID-19 pandemic.
... The theory underlying the Delphi method is that during this iterative process, the range of the opinions will decrease and the group will converge towards a consensus of opinion [42]. Dalkey [38], Helmer and Rescher [43], Oh [33] and Adams [44] further posit that the process of individuals working anonymously to form a consensus may help to reduce the various biases that result in regular, face-to-face group meetings, such as 'group think' and the 'halo effect.' A key challenge to applying a Delphi-technique is that it can be a time-consuming process [40,45,46]. ...
A fundamental problem with risk management standards and other associated guiding documents is that the definitions and descriptors of the seven elements of the risk management process within these documents are commonly at odds with each other and are difficult to understand. An implication is that personnel within and across organisations interpret the process in different ways. This has led to some companies developing their own interpretations of the elements in their risk/work health and safety (WHS) management systems and thereby exacerbating the problem. A standard set of definitions, terminology and language are vital for addressing WHS issues efficiently and effectively to result in better outcomes. This study aimed to develop a set of plain English interpretations (PEI) for each of the seven elements of the risk management process. These seven elements sit between the scant and technical definitions contained in standards (primary and secondary) and the voluminous guidance in the handbooks and codes of practice. The Delphi-technique was used with 20 risk-experts to evaluate, over two iterations a set of draft PEIs—developed by the researchers. These were finally reviewed for readability and understandability by 24 operators/workers. The implications for these new PEIs is that they could be considered for future standards and guidance documents by the ISO Working Group Risk Management Standard and similar committees and used by organisations for their risk/WHS management systems.
... McKinnon et al. 2001, cited by Wakefield andWatson (2013), state that the Delphi method has several meanings, and it is a tool used by policy makers to forecast and plan for the future. It is a systematic and interactive method that depends on a panel of independent experts, using a series of opinions of experts in anonymous communication with feedback; it is a flexible tool to enrich consensus in which judgments are summarized and sent back in order to refine the problem in a wide range of fields (Helmer and Rescher, 1959). ...
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to review the literature on the Delphi method, its characteristics and current applications through an analysis of recent most-cited scientific papers, with an emphasis on three axes, namely, the number of rounds used, stakeholder participation relevance or only academic experts’ participation and the possibility of using indicators or techniques different from those related to descriptive statistics.
Design/methodology/approach
In total, 57 papers were initially reviewed, 10 of them with a high citation rate. Then, an analysis was made of papers in Scopus for the period 2015-2018 published in the Technological Forecasting and Social Change Journal and in the Futures and Foresight Journal, which had the characteristic of displaying quartile Q1 or Q2 in Scimago in addition to being in Scopus.
Findings
Among the main results, the authors observe the tendency to use fewer rounds, a higher prevalence of stakeholder participation and not only academic experts but also the use of new types of modified Delphi such as real-time spatial Delphi, Delphi group, market Delphi, real-world Delphi and policy Delphi.
Originality/value
Among the conclusions, the possibility of using other indicators or complementary techniques to the descriptive statistics is highlighted such as number of justifications or comments between rounds, coefficients to quantify the competence or degree of expertise of the participants, measures of the perception of the expert on the usefulness of the presented feedback, graphs of the number of arguments according to the number of questions, the Wilcoxon Ranked Pairs Test, the k means, Kolmogorov–Simonov test and the Mann–Whitney U-test.
... According to S.H.Dinius in 1987 develop a WQI m model based on mean multiplicative having decrease rating scale, with qualities communicated as a level of clean water quality relating to 100 %. Similar effort was attempted by Rescher and Helmer 1959, Helmer and Dalkey 1963by presenting changes to Delphi method (Dalkey 1968. Brown et al. (1972), Bhargava et al. (1998), Dwivedi et al. (1997), Deininger and Landwehr (1976) provided multiplicative form of the index where weights to individual parameters were assigned based on a subjective opinion on the judgment and critical analysis of the author. ...
The study reports the Weighted Arithmetic Water Quality Index (WQI a) value obtained for River Tungabhadra, a major tributary of Krishna River basin. A WQI a delivers a unique rating that gives whole water quality at a specific stretch and period depending upon some water quality constraints. The principle point of a WQI is to give complex water quality insights into data that is clear and useable by the community. Some of most critical water quality parameters such as pH, Total dissolved solids (TDS), Total alkalinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), Total hardness (TH), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), and electrical conductivity (EC) were Used for evaluating the WQI a. The WQI a esteems for the Tungabhadra River oscillate from 40 to 156. The estimations of WQI a exhibited that the stream water was free of any impurities at the examining sites aside from 2-3 months where its qualities were under good condtion. On every occasion there are anthropogenic influence viz industrial effluent, agricultural runoff and domestic sewage which is directly discharge into stream water gets contaminated to some level and hence of WQI declines. It is opinioned that WQI a can be used as a device in relating the water-quality of different sources. It delivers the community a overall awareness of the thinkable glitches with water in a specific stretch. The WQI are among the best approaches to convey the data on water-quality pattern to the public community or to the water quality policy-makers and which is help full to drive suitable mitigative measure. Rundown phrases-water-quality parameter, weighted arithmetic water quality index (WQI), Tungabhadra River.
... Dinius (1987), developed a index based on multiplicative aggregation having decreasing scale, with values expressed as a percentage of perfect water quality corresponding to 100 %. Similar work was carried out by Helmer andRescher 1959, Dalkey andHelmer 1963 by introducing changes to Delphi method (Dalkey 1968). Brown et al. (1972), Bhargava et al. (1998), Dwivedi et al. (1997, Landwehr and Deininger (1976) gave multiplicative form of the index where weights to individual parameters were assigned based on a subjective opinion based on the judgment and critical analysis of the author. ...
An attempt has been made to develop water
quality index (WQI), using six water quality parameters
pH, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand,
electrical conductivity, nitrate nitrogen and total coliform
measured at three different stations along the Sabarmati
river basin from the year 2005 to 2008. Rating scale is
developed based on the tolerance limits of inland waters
and health point of view. Weighted arithmetic water
quality index method was used to find WQI along the
stretch of the river basin. It was observed from this study
that the impact of human activity and sewage disposal in
the river was severe on most of the parameters. The station
located in highly urban area showed the worst water
quality followed by the station located in moderately
urban area and lastly station located in a moderately rural
area. It was observed that the main cause of deterioration
in water quality was due to the high anthropogenic
activities, illegal discharge of sewage and industrial
effluent, lack of proper sanitation, unprotected river sites
and urban runoff.
... Management is not an exact science in terms of advanced algorithms and complicated nonsense talking. (Hegarty 2006, Helmer 1959, Jordan 1992. ...
The poor Data Science support of agriculture brought us to our main idea of the research is to analyze all micro-works for every plant or tree. Then we proceed to specify targeted actions for harvest collection, micro spraying and hundreds similar simple actions. Initially we collect data from the farm. The airborne, land and underwater unmanned vehicles scan the field area with customized various sensors and cameras in various multi spectral modes. The result is minimum agro-chunk Four-Dimensional model. The unmanned vehicle on the field area receives target data. It is equipped with a general-purpose robotic arm, an absorbing bellow, a robotic pruner, a liquid spraying pipe, an underwater robotic arm and hundreds of others. It moves there and performs the commanded action. Action is flower or nuts collection, insect suction pruning and hundred more. All operations are high trainable by human intervention and the system stores its approach and logic for future action correction.
... Helmer and Rescher (1959) note that relying on expert opinion in the absence of clear empirical knowledge is justified because of the background knowledge of experts and because the high degree of agreement derived from Delphi processes ''precludes subjective whim''. e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e & p o l i c y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 6 5 -7 6 ...
Natural disasters give rise to loss and damage and may affect subjective expectations about the prevalence and severity of future disasters. These expectations might then in turn shape individuals’ investment behaviors, potentially affecting their incomes in subsequent years. As part of an emerging literature on endogenous preferences, economists have begun studying the consequences that exposure to natural disasters have on risk attitudes, perceptions, and behavior. We add to this field by studying the impact of being struck by the December 2012 Cyclone Evan on Fijian households’ risk attitudes and subjective expectations about the likelihood and severity of natural disasters over the next 20 years. The randomness of the cyclone’s path allows us to estimate the causal effects of exposure on both risk attitudes and risk perceptions. Our results show that being struck by an extreme event substantially changes individuals’ risk perceptions as well as their beliefs about the frequency and magnitude of future shocks. However, we find sharply distinct results for the two ethnicities in our sample, indigenous Fijians and Indo-Fijians; the impact of the natural disaster aligns with previous results in the literature on risk attitudes and risk perceptions for Indo-Fijians, whereas they have little to no impact on those same measures for indigenous Fijians.
... The Delphi process has been used in various fields of studies such as policy development and resource utilization to establish a full range of options. The main advantage of using the Delphi technique is the ability to provide anonymity and confidentiality to panel members in terms of their responses [8,10,11], and avoiding group dynamics such as manipulation or coercion [12,13]. Controlled feedback in the Delphi process is designed to reduce the noise effect within a group process and focusing on problem solving, therefore, eliminating bias [14]. ...
Purpose:
The purpose of this study was to develop a stratification scheme for surgical spinal care to serve as a framework for referrals and distribution of patients with spinal disorders.
Methods:
We used a modified Delphi process. A literature search identified experts for the consensus panel and the panel was expanded by inviting spine surgeons known to be global opinion leaders. After creating a seed document of five hierarchical levels of surgical care, a four-step modified Delphi process (question validation, collection of factors, evaluation of factors, re-evaluation of factors) was performed.
Results:
Of 78 invited experts, 19 participated in round 1, and of the 19, 14 participated in 2, and 12 in 3 and 4. Consensus was fairly heterogeneous for levels of care 2-4 (moderate resources). Only simple assessment methods based on the clinical skills of the medical personnel were considered feasible and safe in low-resource settings. Diagnosis, staging, and treatment were deemed feasible and safe in a specialized spine center. Accurate diagnostic workup was deemed feasible and safe for lower levels of care complexity (from level 3 upwards) compared to non-invasive procedures (level 4) and the full range of invasive procedures (level 5).
Conclusion:
This study introduces a five-level stratification scheme for the surgical care of spinal disorders. This stratification may provide input into the Global Spine Care Initiative care pathway that will be applied in medically underserved areas and low- and middle-income countries.
... El método Delphi es un método sistemático e interactivo en el que participa un panel de expertos independientes, a través de una serie de opiniones en comunicación anónima y con retroalimentación; es flexible y sirve para enriquecer consensos, en el método los juicios u opiniones de los expertos, son resumidos y enviados de nuevo con el fin de refinar el problema en un rango variado de campos (Helmer yRescher, 1959). De acuerdo con Rowe y Wright (1999), el método Delphi tiene cuatro características: anonimato, interacción, retroalimentación controlada y agregación estadística de un grupo de respuestas.Omaliko (2003), destaca algunas técnicas que pueden ayudar a gestionar los problemas del agua en Nigeria, tales como: sequias, contaminación, desertificación,ARTÍCULOS ORIGINALES DE INVESTIGACIÓN innovación y es una base en la construcción de información de valor para la toma de decisiones estratégicas alrededor de temas como: fuentes de abastecimiento, tratamiento, suministro, distribución, uso (industrial – agrícola – domestico) y disposición final en el ámbito de la gestión del agua. ...
La Fundación Ciudad del Saber (FCDS) de Panamá, ha planteado la necesidad de utilizar la prospectiva como una estrategia para la identificación de oportunidades tecnológicas y de in-novación en temas prioritarios (Gestión del Agua, Educación y Salud) para la sociedad paname-ña tomando como horizonte el año 2040. Este artículo, presenta los resultados de la consultoría-conducción de talleres de prospectiva desarrollados para el tema de la GESTIÓN DEL AGUA por parte del Equipo multinacional integrado por expertos de la Empresa IALE Tecnología (Es-paña-Chile), la Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana y la Universidad de Medellín (Colombia). El objetivo de la consultoría ha sido aplicar las metodologías adecuadas para la conducción de talleres de prospectiva, de acuerdo a los temas previamente identificados y con la participación de expertos en el tema de la GESTIÓN DEL AGUA convocados por la FCDS. Los conocimientos generados durante los talleres han permitido identificar las aplicaciones tecnológicas innova-doras más relevantes para Panamá que corresponden al tema de la GESTIÓN DEL AGUA; en las que las tecnologías convergentes o emergentes (NIBC: Nano, Info, Bio y Cogno) inciden de manera especial. Palabras claves: Prospectiva Método Delphi Vigilancia tecnológica gestión del agua Tecnologías convergentes o emergentes (NIBC) 1. Introducción El presente estudio es desarrollado a partir de una iniciativa de la Fundación Ciudad del Saber (FCDS) de Panamá, la cual convoca a un grupo de expertos metodológicos en el tema de prospectiva. Como resultado de esta convocatoria se crea un equipo multinacional conformado por tres instituciones: La Empresa IALE Tecnología de Es-paña y Chile, la Universidad de Medellín y la Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana – Me-dellín, ambas universidades colombianas, para la realización de un estudio de Futuro en el tema de " La Gestión del agua tomando como horizonte el año 2040 ". Es importante destacar, la gran amplitud temática que implica el término " GESTIÓN DEL AGUA " la cual, se estableció, como una aproximación al tema basada en as-pectos ligados a su afectación por parte de los ámbitos del conocimiento conocidos como " tecnologías convergentes o emergentes " (NIBC: Nano, Info, Bio y Cogno). De *Autor correspondiente en: Fundación Ciudad del Saber, Clayton, Apartado Postal 0843-03081, Panamá Correo Electrónico; gayarza@cdspanama. org (G. Ayarza). INDICASATi mes INDICASATi mes ARTÍCULOS ORIGINALES DE INVESTIGACIÓN
... El método Delphi es un método sistemático e interactivo en el que participa un panel de expertos independientes, a través de una serie de opiniones en comunicación anónima y con retroalimentación; es flexible y sirve para enriquecer consensos, en el método los juicios u opiniones de los expertos, son resumidos y enviados de nuevo con el fin de refinar el problema en un rango variado de campos (Helmer yRescher, 1959). De acuerdo con Rowe y Wright (1999), el método Delphi tiene cuatro características: anonimato, interacción, retroalimentación controlada y agregación estadística de un grupo de respuestas.Según Steurer (2011), el método Delphi consiste en " una serie de procesos grupales estructurados para sondear la opinión de expertos y llegar a una respuesta del grupo. ...
La Fundación Ciudad del Saber (FCDS) de Panamá, ha planteado la necesidad de utilizar la prospectiva como una estrategia para la identificación de oportunidades tecnológicas y de innovación en temas prioritarios (Gestión del Agua, Educación y Salud) para la sociedad panameña tomando como horizonte el año 2040. Este artículo, presenta los resultados de la consultoríaconducción de talleres de prospectiva desarrollados para el tema de la SALUD por parte del Equipo multinacional integrado por expertos de la Empresa IALE Tecnología (España - Chile), la Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana y la Universidad de Medellín (Colombia). El objetivo de la consultoría ha sido aplicar las metodologías adecuadas para la conducción de talleres de prospectiva, de acuerdo a los temas previamente identificados y con la participación de expertos en el tema de la SALUD convocados por la FCDS. Los conocimientos generados durante los talleres han permitido identificar las aplicaciones tecnológicas innovadoras más relevantes para Panamá que corresponden al tema de la SALUD; en las que las tecnologías convergentes o emergentes (NIBC: Nano, Info, Bio y Cogno) inciden de manera especial.
... It is flexible and serves to enrich consensus in the method. Trials are summarized and sent back in order to refine the problem on a wide range of fields (Helmer and Rescher, 1959). According to Rowe and Wright (1999). ...
The article presents an application of the soft systems methodology- SSM on a problem
related to the Delphi Method and its alignment with an innovation strategy in the
REVISTA GESTIÓN DE LAS PERSONAS Y TECNOLOGÍA – ISSN 0718-5693 – EDICIÓN Nº 26 – AGOSTO 2016
(MAYO – JULIO 2016) – UNIVERSIDAD DE SANTIAGO DE CHILE, FACULTAD TECNOLÓGICA
39 www.revistagpt.usach.cl
framework of a management model innovation, in order to generate an improved
problem.
Amongst the major findings throughout the case, highlights the advantages of using soft
systems methodology to assist in the improvement of non-structured human activity
problems, in this specific case, a problem associated with Delphi method and its
alignment with the business innovation strategy in the context of innovation
management models, additionally, the possibility of complementing the soft systems
methodology prioritization questionnaires for expert opinions for improving the
understanding of the problem.
... It is flexible and serves to enrich consensus in the method. Trials are summarized and sent back in order to refine the problem on a wide range of fields (Helmer and Rescher, 1959). According to Rowe and Wright (1999). ...
This article deals with the application of soft systems the methodology SSM in order to
analyze a problem of a Doctoral dissertation entitled "The Delphi method as an enabler
of innovation strategies in the context of a managerial framework model for innovation in
organizations in the productive sector" of the PhD in management from the Universidad
de Medellin – Colombia. The main objective is to obtain an improved problem regarding
the alignment that can exist between foresight studies through the Delphi method with
the components "innovation strategy and management innovation model. The article is
divided into several sections. First, concepts of the Delphi method, innovation strategy,
management innovation models and SSM, then the methodology is explained, the
results, the discussion and finally the conclusions.
... The empirical research was conducted by the application of the classical variant of the Delphi technique, implying three " circles " or research iterations (Helmer & Rescher, 1959; Keeney et al., 2011). The first iteration was the qualitative research component and the data were therefore gathered by means of semi-structured interviews. ...
Software architecture stands as the backbone of any software system, regardless of the methodology it was developed with. The responsibility for the choice of the architectural solution, its design and evaluation in the traditional development process lies in the role of the software architect. Traditional architecture development is based on three architectural phases: architectural analysis, architectural synthesis and architectural evaluation. The highly ceremonial character of the traditional process is also reflected in the role of the software architect , who is responsible for generating numerous architectural artefacts. The proponents of agile development start from the position that an architecture emerges gradually, after every iteration, as a result of continuous code refactoring, rather than from a previously built structure. In accordance with this, agile processes do not contain any of the traditional phases (the analysis, the synthesis and the evaluation) of the architecture development process. Agile processes also have a different view of the responsibility for a developed architectural solution, delegating it to all the members of the agile team. In terms of expanding agile development processes with traditional architecture processes, with the aim of enabling the development of a complex system, the current research and efforts have also identified change in the role of the software architect. This paper aims to describe the modified role of the software architect in agile processes for developing complex software solutions, integrating findings of the existing literature and the results of the conducted empirical research. The empirical research results feature as a part of the research conducted within the doctoral dissertation entitled " The Methodological Framework for Developing the Software Architecture of Business Software in Agile Processes " , submitted at the Faculty of Economics in Subotica of the University in Novi Sad.
... Three of us (GS, CT and SC) analyzed the literature on the field of SSIs (randomized clinical trials, case-control studies, recommendations and clinical cases) and proposed some major and minor risk factors for SSIs to a board of general and specialist surgeons. We used the Delphi method [42][43][44] to make operative decisions through different steps of convergence, depending on the consensus reached in each round of consultation of the board. ...
Background
The aim of this research was to study the epidemiology, microbiology, prophylaxis, and antibiotic therapy of surgical site infections (SSIs), especially those caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), and identify the risk factors for these infections. In Italy SSIs occur in about 5 % of all surgical procedures. They are predominantly caused by staphylococci, and 30 % of them are diagnosed after discharge. In every surgical specialty there are specific procedures more associated with SSIs.
Methods
The authors conducted a systematic review of the literature on SSIs, especially MRSA infections, and used the Delphi method to identify risk factors for these resistant infections.
Results
Risk factors associated with MRSA SSIs identified by the Delphi method were: patients from long-term care facilities, recent hospitalization (within the preceding 30 days), Charlson score > 5 points, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and thoracic surgery, antibiotic therapy with beta-lactams (especially cephalosporins and carbapenem) and/or quinolones in the preceding 30 days, age 75 years or older, current duration of hospitalization >16 days, and surgery with prothesis implantation. Protective factors were adequate antibiotic prophylaxis, laparoscopic surgery and the presence of an active, in-hospital surveillance program for the control of infections. MRSA therapy, especially with agents that enable the patient’s rapid discharge from hospital is described.
Conclusion
The prevention, identification and treatment of SSIs, especially those caused by MRSA, should be implemented in surgical units in order to improve clinical and economic outcomes.
... Delphi interviews: To develop and refine a local definition of flipped learning, we employed a series of semi-structured interviews with sequential groups of stakeholders to simulate a controlled debate, following the Delphi technique (Helmer & Rescher, 1959; Linstone & Turoff, 1975). In each round of interviews, ideas raised in prior rounds were systematically presented for discussion, building from the diversity of perspectives toward consensus about a set of core practices and concerns. ...
As schools look to raise standards and close achievement gaps, they need effective strategies for serving English language learners, the fastest-growing segment of the school-age population who have historically lagged behind their native English-speaking peers on state assessments and in graduation rates.
Flipped learning, which blends in-person and online learning to maximize student and teacher interactions, shows potential for accelerating English learners' progress. In a flipped classroom, students access direct instruction on their own time, while class time is used for interactive lessons, collaborative projects, and personalized teacher support.
This study from the University of Massachusetts-Boston, examines how flipped learning can be utilized to improve the language and content acquisition of adolescent English language learners.
... The Delphi process entails a group of experts who come together to reach consensus about pressing problems despite inadequate data from which to reach a conclusion empirically (Egan and Jones 1997). Helmer and Rescher (1959) noted that relying on expert opinion in the absence of clear empirical information is justi ied because of the experts' background knowledge and because the high degree of agreement derived from Delphi processes "precludes subjective whim." Delphi processes are commonly used in the natural sciences but are less common in economics. ...
The small Indian mongoose is among the worst of invasive alien species, yet the implications of managing the species are poorly understood. To address concerns of interest to practitioners and policymakers, we analyze survey data to document the impacts of this species in Fiji and conduct a cost-benefit analysis of management approaches that are both culturally appropriate and readily implementable: live trapping, kill trapping, and hunting. We find that the monetized benefits of kill trapping exceed the benefits of live trapping and hunting. Still, all of these management options are preferred to the status quo of no management. Copyright 2015 Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association.
The surface water bodies are under a continuous threat due to growth of urbanization and industrialization. As urbanization increases, water quality is impaired. In this study, two models have been used, namely, Water Quality Index model, which is a measure to assess the status of quality of a surface water body and Urbanization index model, which is a measure to assess the urbanization level of the station located on the river. A Water Quality-Urbanization Regression model (WQURM) for assessing the impact of urbanization on the surface water quality and for predicting the river water quality for the future growth of Urbanization has been developed. The WQURM model formulated is applied on the Sabarmati river basin, India. The results show that with the increase in urbanization levels of the station, its water quality deteriorates with a linear pattern.
In this research, a model for the selection of suppliers to achieve optimal order allocation under fuzzy conditions is studied. For this purpose, Delphi method, Fuzzy AHP and linear programming technique were used.
In the first part, the library method was utilized to identify the criteria affecting supplier selection. In this regard, previous studies were scrutinized and the relevant criteria were extracted.
In the second part, by using the Delphi method, the criteria recognized in the previous section were distributed among experts and were either approved or rejected. In this section, new criteria might be added to the library criteria.
In the third part, the information necessary for the ranking of suppliers by directors will be gathered via a questionnaire, which will be designed based on fuzzy AHP method.
Finally, in the fourth part, the data needed for the estimation of the linear model and for the optimized allocation of orders through the company’s database will be collected and presented.
According to results obtained from the Delphi method, four criteria of cost, delay in delivery, quality, and technology have been selected in that order as the most important criteria to rank suppliers of Saipa Company. Based on the results gained from the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process method, the weights for supplier selection criteria were chosen as follows: Technology criterion 0.28, cost criterion 0.25, delay in delivery criterion 0.24, and quality criterion 0.23.
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the growing field of foresight process theory. Scanning the environment and assessing uncertainty are among the most important managerial activities in strategizing and decision-making. Although their significance in the strategy process is well documented, there is limited research on how uncertainty captured is analysed and interpreted by individuals without any formalised processes in order to anticipate the future. This paper examines how analysts from a professional service company, which specialises in forward-looking analysis, develop foresight, and how they determine the potential impact of their judgements. Within this in-depth inductive case study, firstly we explore forward-looking analysis as a foresight process. Secondly, we investigate how sensemaking takes place within forward-looking analysis. Thirdly, we advance the knowledge on the relationship between foresight and sensemaking; and specifically we show with empirical evidence that prospective sensemaking can be both ‘future perfect’ (Weickian) and ‘future oriented’ (post-Weickian).
La Fundación Ciudad del Saber (FCDS) de Panamá, ha planteado la necesidad de utilizar la prospectiva como una estrategia para la identificación de oportunidades tecnológicas y de innovación en temas prioritarios (Gestión del Agua, Educación y Salud) para la sociedad pana-meña tomando como horizonte el año 2040. Este artículo, presenta los resultados de la consultoría-conducción de talleres de prospectiva desarrollados para el tema de la EDUCACIÓN por parte del Equipo multinacional integrado por expertos de la Empresa IALE Tecnología (España - Chile), la Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana y la Universidad de Medellín (Colombia). El objetivo de la consultoría ha sido aplicar las metodologías adecuadas para la conducción de talleres de prospectiva, de acuerdo a los temas previamente identificados y con la participación de expertos en el tema de la EDUCACIÓN convocados por la FCDS. Los conocimientos generados durante los talleres han permitido identificar las aplicaciones tecnológicas innovadoras más rele-vantes para Panamá que corresponden al tema de la EDUCACIÓN; en las que las tecnologías convergentes o emergentes (NIBC: Nano, Info, Bio y Cogno) inciden de manera especial.
Science is an enterprise whose chief goal is the effective dealing with events rather than, as implied by much current research in psychology, primarily an endeavor to “understand” or “explain,” i.e., to arrive at acceptable verbalizations about events. The most effective dealing with events is termed “synthesis”: the reliable production of orderly consequences. Verbalizations by the investigator can contribute to synthesis in two ways: by acting themselves as synthesizing events and by describing the events to be manipulated in order to achieve synthesis. Confusion arises and the goals of science are subverted both when this distinction is not maintained and when the scientist’s words themselves are taken to constitute the subject matter to be investigated.
Objectives
To describe and review the Delphi technique as a tool for radiographers engaged in mixed-methods research whereby agreement is required on the proficiencies needed by educational programmes for pre- and post- registration radiographers. This is achieved through a description offering a brief history of the technique. Through a literature search, radiography education research using this technique is identified. A protocol for a research project using the technique is presented. Using this worked example, advantages and disadvantages of the method are explored including sampling of participants, sample size, number of rounds and methods of feedback.
Key findings
There are limited examples of the use of the Delphi technique in radiography literature including considerations on how to select experts and panel size.
Conclusion
The Delphi technique is a suitable method for establishing collective agreement in the design of radiography educational interventions. Additional research is needed to deepen this evidence-based knowledge.
In the following article I argue that the public presentations of film heritage institutes largely focus on feature-length, predominantly fiction films. This statement is based on a survey I did within the framework of my PhD research of public programming information on the websites of 24 film heritage institutes, in February 2014. The results of this survey clearly show that these institutes’ public, curatorial activities fall short of their missions and negatively affect the sense of film history they convey to their audiences. In the case of publicly-funded institutes this is all the more serious, as they are mandated to be publicly accountable for their missions and activities. I conclude with recommendations for curatorial activities: to rethink the institutes’ gatekeeper function and to develop more more varied, imaginative, and informative public presentations that reflect the range of their collections and the histories these collections imply.
Zweifellos haben verschiedene Faktoren dazu beigetragen, daß die Produktionsplanung zu den am weitesten ausgearbeiteten Teilen der betriebswirtschaftlichen Theorie gehört und einen vergleichsweise hohen Grad an Praxisnähe erreicht hat.
In diesem Kapitel sollen diskursive und intuitive Verfahren1) erörtert werden, die das Zustandekommen von Produktideen fördern oder gar planvoll herbeiführen2). Nach einer ausführlichen Darstellung und Kritik der Verfahren gilt es vor allem zu prüfen, ob der instrumentale Charakter der Verfahren bereits so ausgeprägt ist, daß man von einer „Ideenproduktion“ mit zuverlässigen Input-Output-Beziehungen sprechen kann. Darüber hinaus sind Ausführungen zu machen zum Problem der Verfahrensauswahl, insbesondere mit dem Ziel der Entwicklung eines „Methoden-mix“, eines abgewogenen und problemadäquaten Instrumentariums im Dienste einer betrieblichen Suchpolitik. Schließlich wird noch Veranlassung gegeben sein, eine Theorie zu entwickeln, in welcher der Versuch unternommen werden soll, Erkenntnisse der Individualpsychologie zu dieser Thematik mit Wirtschaftlichkeitsüberlegungen zu verknüpfen.
Objectives:
Consensus methods are used by healthcare professionals and educators within nursing education because of their presumed capacity to extract the profession's' "collective knowledge" which is often considered tacit knowledge that is difficult to verbalize and to formalize. Since their emergence, consensus methods have been criticized and their rigour has been questioned. Our study focuses on the use of consensus methods in nursing education and seeks to explore how extensively consensus methods are used, the types of consensus methods employed, the purpose of the research and how standardized the application of the methods is.
Design and data sources:
A systematic approach was employed to identify articles reporting the use of consensus methods in nursing education. The search strategy included keyword search in five electronic databases [Medline (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), AMED (Ovid), ERIC (Ovid) and CINAHL (EBSCO)] for the period 2004-2014. We included articles published in English, French, German and Greek discussing the use of consensus methods in nursing education or in the context of identifying competencies.
Review method:
A standardized extraction form was developed using an iterative process with results from the search. General descriptors such as type of journal, nursing speciality, type of educational issue addressed, method used, geographic scope were recorded. Features reflecting methodology such as number, selection and composition of panel participants, number of rounds, response rates, definition of consensus, and feedback were recorded.
Results:
1230 articles were screened resulting in 101 included studies. The Delphi was used in 88.2% of studies. Most were reported in nursing journals (63.4%). The most common purpose to use these methods was defining competencies, curriculum development and renewal, and assessment. Remarkably, both standardization and reporting of consensus methods was noted to be generally poor. Areas where the methodology appeared weak included: preparation of the initial questionnaire; the selection and description of participants; number of rounds and number of participants remaining after each round; formal feedback of group ratings; definitions of consensus and a priori definition of numbers of rounds; and modifications to the methodology.
Conclusions:
The findings of this study are concerning if interpreted within the context of the structural critiques because our findings lend support to these critiques. If consensus methods should continue being used to inform best practices in nursing education, they must be rigorous in design.
Zwar läßt sich jedes Wissen in Form von Sätzen aussprechen, aber nicht jeder Satz ist umgekehrt auch der Ausdruck einer auch nur beabsichtigten Erkenntnis oder eines Wissens. Das trifft vielmehr nur auf Deklarativ- oder Behauptungssätze zu , die feststellen, daß etwas ist (existiert) bzw. so oder so ist, oder aber, daß etwas nicht ist bzw. nicht so oder so ist. Daneben gibt es bekanntlich auch Befehlssätze, Ausrufsätze, Bittsätze, und vor allem Fragesätze 1). Solche Sätze bejahen nichts und verneinen nichts. Wir können folglich feststellen, daß nur den Behauptungs- oder Deklarativsätzen ein kognitiver Gehalt, ein möglicher Erkenntniswert, zugeschrieben werden kann 2). Damit wird die Nützlichkeit und Notwendigkeit nicht-kognitiver Sätze zur Erreichung des Ziels der Wissenschaft insgesamt jedoch keineswegs geleugnet 3).
Nach einer wenig mehr als zwanzigjährigen Geschichte präsentiert sich die Wirtschaftsinformatik vordergründig in einer guten Verfassung. So kann für den Diplomstudiengang Wirtschaftsinformatik weiterhin auf eine deutliche Zunahme von Studierenden verwiesen werden1 — was nicht zuletzt ein Reflex auf die Wertschätzung der Disziplin in der Praxis sein dürfte: Diplomwirtschaftsinformatiker/innen erfreuen sich am Arbeitsmarkt einer überaus großen Nachfrage.2 Daneben sorgen vergleichsweise hohe Drittmitteleinnahmen dafur, daß die Wirtschaftsinformatik dem zunehmenden hochschulinternen Wettbewerb gelassen entgegensehen kann. Dessen ungeachtet ist in der Disziplin seit einiger Zeit eine verhaltene und weitgehend latente Diskussion über methodologische Fragen zu verzeichnen. Sie knüpft zum Teil unmittelbar an ähnhche Diskussionen in der Betriebswirtschaftslehre an. Daneben trägt die Wirtschaftsinformatik auch an den methodologischen Prolehre an. Daneben trägt die Wirtschaftsinformatik auch an den methodologischen Problemen der Informatik.3 Nicht zuletzt entstehen methodologische Fragestellungen durch Besonderheiten des Untersuchungsgegenstands der Wirtschaftsinformatik sowie durch ihre Ausrichtung als anwendungsorientierter, interdisziplinärer Forschungsansatz. Daraus leitet sich ein gewisser Bedarf an Profiherung ab — gegenüber den benachbarten Disziplinen Betriebswirtschaftslehre und Informatik wie auch gegenüber einschlägigen Forschungs- und Entwicklungsaktivitäten in der Praxis. Ein weiterer Grund für das Bemühen um ein eigenständiges Profil, das sich in schlüssiger Weise vermitteln läßt, ergibt sich durch die wachsende Bedeutung internationaler Kontakte: Ähnlich wie in der Betriebswirtschaftslehre ist auch das angelsächsische Pendant zur Wirtschaftsinformatik, „Information Systems Research“, durch eine andere Ausrichtung sowie durch den Einsatz abweichender Forschungsmethoden gekennzeichnet.
The aim of the rational-consensus method is to produce “rational consensus”, that is, “mathematical aggregation”, by weighing the performance of each expert on the basis of his or her knowledge and ability to judge relevant uncertainties. The measurement of the performance of the experts is based on the expert’s assessment of “seed variables”. These performances are used to determine the weights of the expert’s judgments in the aggregation of them. The disadvantage of the rational-consensus method in social science is the lack of agreed upon seed variables, and that it does not instead use the shared knowledge captured by models. Moreover, there seems to be sufficient evidence that combining models with expert judgments leads to better judgments. This is even more evident with respect to forecasts.
The ideals of science as objectivity and consensus are – unsurprisingly – not so easy to attain in scientific practice. Science is ultimately a product of individual scientists with their own personal backgrounds and experiences, and there is no unique methodology to de-personalize and objectify knowledge. Social scientists, in particular, use a variety of tools for their investigations: They gather evidence from different sources, under different conditions and with different instruments. They are both the locus where different sources of evidence aggregate and also a direct source of evidence that comes in as intuitions and background knowledge. Acknowledging this wide variety of sources of evidence and methods in social science, different kinds of methodologies for reaching consensus have been developed. What kind of consensus is indicative of good science? What are the rules for consensus formation? And, is there a normative aspect to the formation of scientific and policy making consensus? The contributions of this book focus on experts: those institutional figures that act as a liaison between science and policy makers, politicians, governments, and other public domains.
Knowledge Engineering (KE) usually deals with representation and visualization challenges, sometimes socio or bio inspired, collective aspects being quite often taken into account. Nevertheless with knowledge-based Territorial Intelligence, KE is faced with natively situated know-how, distributed hope and network-centered emerging organizations, as far as this domain aims at providing tools to support and develop our local and territorial communities. Furthermore knowledge-based Territorial Intelligence has to cope with its own paradoxes and success, to challenge its sustainable existence: as a matter of fact, thanks to big data and its digital tools, people may have thought that they where living in a global village, territories-independent, practicing a perpetual nomadism. So they now require participation for defining their collective policies and social perspectives, leading to their common sustainable development. How knowledge-based Territorial Intelligence will manage to make available efficient solutions to support and develop our original way to collectively inhabit places and earth? That is the question we try to present throughout some technical and scientific aspects along this dedicated chapter.
This article presents a proposal and prioritization analysis of innovation public policies through the application of the Delphi method. The fundamental purpose is to bring elements to answer the following question: ¿Do good innovation policy practices exist in Colombia? To contribute to this survey, an anonymous Delphi consultation method was made to experts with 92 variables in two rounds; which was sent to representatives of universities, Government enterprises, and Colombian interface entities. This is done with the purpose of prioritizing innovation policies of Colombia for the year 2025. The document is divided in various sections. A revision is presented on the concepts of innovation policies. Later, a revision is made regarding innovation public policies of the Asian Tigers and some countries of OECD, just like an analysis of the legal innovation framework in Colombia. The study ends with the application of the Delphi method on innovation public policies in Colombia for the year 2025.
Der erste Verweis auf die Benutzung eines Delphi-Ansatzes stammt aus dem Jahr 1948. Damals soll diese Technik dazu benutzt worden sein, um die Ergebnisse eines Hunde- oder Pferderennens1 vorauszusagen. In den folgenden Jahren wurde die Delphi-Methode von der RAND Corporation in 14 Experimenten für militärische Zwecke eingesetzt, beispielsweise um mögliche Ziele sowjetischer Angriffe auf die USA zu schätzen. Wissenschaftliche Ergebnisse dieser Studien sind jedoch nicht publiziert worden (vgl. Linstone/Turoff 1975: 10). Bekannt wurde die Delphi-Methode schließlich durch einen 1964 ebenfalls von der RAND Corporation erarbeiteten „Report an a Long Range Forecasting Study“ (Gordon/Helmer 1964). Das Ziel dieser Studie bestand in der langfristigen Vorhersage wissenschaftlicher und technischer Entwicklungen, wobei eine Zeitspanne von zehn bis fünfzig Jahren als Zeithorizont definiert wurde. Diese Untersuchung wird in der deutschsprachigen Literatur oft als die erste bezeichnet (vgl. Albach 1970; Geschka 1977; Saliger/Kunz 1981). Seit den 70er Jahren fand dann eine Ausbreitung der Delphi-Methode auch in Westeuropa — einschließlich Deutschland — statt. Die Anlagen dieser Folgestudien waren zunächst stark vom erwähnten RAND Corporation-Projekt beeinflusst (vgl. Helmer/Rescher 1960). Insbesondere in der Betriebswirtschaft kam es zur Rezeption der Delphi-Methode für Prognosezwecke. Die Einsatzgebiete wurden aber schnell vielfältiger, so dass Seeger bereits 1979 schätzte, es habe innerhalb der 15-jährigen Anwendungsdauer ca. 1500 Delphi-Untersuchungen verschiedenster Art gegeben (vgl. Seeger 1979: 32).
Delphi and Political Gaming were the first social scientific methods to rely on expert knowledge in order to prognosticate future developments and trends. Both techniques were developed in the early 1950s at the California-based RAND Corporation. Despite this closeness, the epistemic roles of the experts differed greatly. While Delphi views experts as carriers of universal knowledge, political gaming takes a more culturalist and relativist stance towards knowledge. This historical case is used to develop a more sophisticated concept of academic tribes, which focuses on the aspect of descent and emphasizes the continuing relevance of the tribal culture for the scientist's identity even after leaving the place of academic socialization.
This paper is about the Delphi method and provides elements to establish the influence of the number of experts when choosing priority themes and variables. For this purpose, a Delphi study was made in 2014 related to the issues, technologies and variables which have a priority in the year 2032 regarding biodegradable packaging. Such matter was evaluated over the original data and the incidence of the number of experts was assessed: 9, 15, 22 and 24. Furthermore, the estimate of the expert competence "k" coefficient was done and compared with the relation between the common core of issues obtained from the opinions of the group of 16 experts with the highest "k" coefficient. Amongst the key results, it can be observed that from the analysis with the 9 experts a common set of issues was presented, which remained constant for the other quantities of experts. In other words, increasing the number of experts did not present big changes on the priority issues. However, minor variations with 15 and 22 experts were obtained. As for expert competence "k" coefficient the results obtained with the 16 experts with a "k" coefficient greater than or equal to 0.8, in four of the five groups, high percentages were obtained with the common core priority issues, while experts with a lower "k" coefficient of 0.8 were placed in the five groups of high variation percentages, taking into account that they were given the same common core topics.
A wide range of water-treatment technologies is used to control waterborne microbial problems in greenhouse and nursery irrigation. An online modified Delphi survey was carried out to identify the perceived key attributes that growers should consider when selecting among water-treatment technologies and to characterize a list of 14 technologies based on those same attributes. The expert panel consisted of ornamental plant growers (n = 43), water-treatment industry suppliers (n = 28), and research and extension faculty (n = 34). The survey was delivered to the expert panel in two rounds. Response rate was 59% and 60% for the first and second rounds, respectively. Growers identified control of plant disease, algae, and biofilm as primary reasons for adopting technologies, whereas mandatory regulation was not a major reason for adoption. All 23 attributes (related to cost, system size, control of microorganisms, chemistry, ease of use, and regulation) were perceived to be important when selecting between water-treatment technologies. Injectable sanitizing chemicals such as chlorination were considered to have low capital cost, unlike technologies that required installation of more complex equipment, such as heat treatment, hydrogen peroxide, ozone, reverse osmosis, or ultraviolet radiation. Filtration (excluding membrane filtration) was the only technology not perceived to be effective to control microorganisms. Filtration and copper were not considered effective to control human food-safety pathogens. Ozone was rated the highest as a technology that removes or oxidizes agrochemicals. Chemical water treatments, as opposed to physical water treatments, were perceived to be sensitive to water quality parameters and to have residual effect through the irrigation. Chlorine gas was perceived to be the only technology for which regulatory permission would be an obstacle. All technologies were perceived to be effective in water with low electrical conductivity (EC) or in solutions containing water-soluble fertilizers. This survey documents perceived attributes of watertreatment technologies, which are most useful where experimental data are not yet available. Research and outreach needs were highlighted by cases where perceived attributes differed from available experimental data or where there was a lack of consensus between experts.
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