Using a coupled climate–carbon cycle model, fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are derived through a reverse approach of prescribing atmospheric CO2 concentrations according to observations and future projections, respectively. In the second half of the twentieth century,
the implied fossil fuel emissions, and also the carbon uptake by land and ocean, are within the range of observational
... [Show full abstract] estimates.
Larger discrepancies exist in the earlier period (1860–1960), with small fossil fuel emissions and uncertain emissions from
anthropogenic land cover change. In the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, the simulated fossil fuel emissions more than double until
2050 (17GtC/year) and then decrease to 12GtC/year by 2100. In addition to A1B, an aggressive mitigation scenario was employed,
developed within the European ENSEMBLES project, that peaks at 530ppm CO2(equiv) around 2050 and then decreases to approach 450ppm during the twenty-second century. Consistent with the prescribed
pathway of atmospheric CO2 in E1, the implied fossil fuel emissions increase from currently 8GtC/year to about 10 by 2015 and decrease thereafter.
In the 2050s (2090s) the emissions decrease to 3.4 (0.5) GtC/year, respectively. As in previous studies, our model simulates
a positive climate–carbon cycle feedback which tends to reduce the implied emissions by roughly 1GtC/year per degree global
warming. Further, our results suggest that the 450ppm stabilization scenario may not be sufficient to fulfill the European
Union climate policy goal of limiting the global temperature increase to a maximum of 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels.