Human papilloma virus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) is an independent tumour type with regard to cellular, biological, and clinical features. The use of non-invasive biomarkers such as circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) may be relevant in early diagnosis and eventually improve the outcomes of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Genome-wide discovery using RNA sequencing and reduced representation bisulfite sequencing yielded 21 candidates for methylation-targeted genes. A verification study (252 HNSCC patients) using quantitative methylation-specific PCR (Q-MSP) identified 10 genes (ATP2A1, CALML5, DNAJC5G, GNMT, GPT, LY6D, LYNX1, MAL, MGC16275, and MRGPRF) that showed a significant increase recurrence in methylation groups with OPC. Further study on ctDNA using Q-MSP in HPV-associated OPC showed that three genes (CALML5, DNAJC5G, and LY6D) had a high predictive ability as emerging biomarkers for a validation set, each capable of discriminating between the plasma of the patients from healthy individuals. Among the the 42 ctDNA samples, methylated CALML5, DNAJC5G, and LY6D were observed in 31 (73.8%), 19 (45.2%), and 19 (45.2%) samples, respectively. Among pre-treatment ctDNA samples, methylated CALML5, DNAJC5G, and LY6D were observed in 8/8 (100%), 7/8 (87.5%), and 7/8 (87.5%) samples, respectively. Methylated CALML5, DNAJC5G, and LY6D were found in 2/8 (25.0%), 0/8 (0%), and 1/8 (12.5%) of the final samples in the series, respectively. Here, we present the relationship between the methylation status of three specific genes and cancer recurrence for risk classification of HPV-associated OPC cases. In conclusion, ctDNA analysis has the potential to aid in determining patient prognosis and real-time surveillance for disease recurrences and serves as an alternative method of screening for HPV-associated OPC.