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(a) Geographical overview illustrating the position of Belize and offshore atolls in south-western Caribbean area. The map was produced digitizing open access satellite images using the vector graphic software Adobe Illustrator CS4 V.14.0. We acknowledge the use of imagery from the NASA Worldview application (https ://world view.earth data.nasa.gov), part of the NASA Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). (b) Open access ASTER satellite image of Lighthouse Reef (https ://aster web.jpl.nasa.gov) supplied by Japan Space Systems, and U.S/Japan ASTER Science TEAM (NASA/METI/AIST/). The Great Blue Hole is situated in the eastern lagoon of Lighthouse Reef. (c) Aerial view taken in a previous study 28 indicating the position of the core BH6 (17° 18.957′ N, 87° 32.098′ W) in the Great Blue Hole centre as well as cores obtained during previous studies (BZE-BH-SVC4 16 and LOCO1 28 ). (d) Historical TC record (1,850-2,017 CE) passing the study area within a hypothetical 100 km diameter circle (grey shaded). The cyclone track map was downloaded from https ://coast .noaa.gov/hurri canes / and compared with NOAA HURDAT dataset 29 . (e) Core photo (interval BH1: 65.0-84.0 cm) of the undisturbed sediment succession at the floor of the Great Blue Hole comprising fine-grained, yellow-brown/green laminated couplets and five intercalated coarser sandy event beds (red). Additionally, Sr (purple) and Ca (white) overlays of XRF-datasets (elemental intensity: counts per second = cps) are included, illustrating the approach of Sr/Ca ratios (relative variation to background) for TC detection. (f) The Great Blue Hole cross-section with temperature and conductivity profiles 28 . Temperature and conductivity decrease significantly between 80 and 100 m depth; bottom water below ca. 90 m is anoxic 30 .
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Tropical cyclones (TC) represent a substantial threat to life and property for Caribbean and adjacent populations. The prospective increase of TC magnitudes, expressed in the 15th chapter of the IPCC AR5 report, entails a rising probability of ecological and social disasters, which were tragically exemplified by several severe Caribbean TC strikes...
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... 26 ), respectively. The most recent study on Southern Andros Blue Holes (Bahamas) 27 actually reaches annual resolution. Our study investigates the Great Blue Hole of Lighthouse Reef (Belize), which is an inundated, circular and cylindrical-shaped Pleistocene karst cavity acting as sediment trap in the wake of multiple historical TC tracks (Fig. 1a,b,d). The same sinkhole has already been sampled before with cores covering the past ca. 1,380 years and 2-4 years resolution 16,28 . The sedimentary archive of the Great Blue Hole offers, however, the great potential to be analysed further back in time and at annual ...
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... cored the 8.55 m long record (BH6) at 17° 18.957′ N, 87° 32.098′ W in the approximate centre of the sinkhole, in August 2017 (Fig. 1c). The core stratigraphy is bipartite (Fig. 1e) and characterized by yellow/browngreenish, varved fair-weather background sedimentation and yellow/brown storm-induced event layers with varying amounts of skeletal debris (Halimeda, coralline red algae, molluscs, foraminifers, corals, echinoderms) and organic particles 31,32 . The annual ...
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... cored the 8.55 m long record (BH6) at 17° 18.957′ N, 87° 32.098′ W in the approximate centre of the sinkhole, in August 2017 (Fig. 1c). The core stratigraphy is bipartite (Fig. 1e) and characterized by yellow/browngreenish, varved fair-weather background sedimentation and yellow/brown storm-induced event layers with varying amounts of skeletal debris (Halimeda, coralline red algae, molluscs, foraminifers, corals, echinoderms) and organic particles 31,32 . The annual couplets most likely reflect seasonal changes ...
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... Reef lagoon, resulting in differences in organic matter content between summer (yellow/brown) and winter season (green) 28 . The varved background sedimentation layers are perfectly preserved in the sedimentary subsurface of the Great Blue Hole and totally undisturbed from bioturbation, because of persistent anoxic bottom-water conditions (Fig. 1f). TCs passing the Great Blue Hole sediment trap either cause a sediment slope collapse at the top of the sinkhole, or physically initiate a suspension and settling of coarse-grained carbonate particles (> 63 μm) from the surrounding lagoon floor and marginal reef through storm wave and surge impact 33 . The coarser and sometimes graded ...
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... calcitic background sedimentation. XRF data are sensitive to record changes in background (containing calcite) versus over-wash (rich in aragonitic reef fragments) sediments. In particular, peaks in the Sr/Ca-ratio are very suitable to identify event layers in carbonate environments owing to the enrichment of Sr in aragonite relative to calcite (Fig. 1e). We applied a multi-proxy-approach to ensure a more reliable TC identification (Suppl. 1) addressing the above-mentioned limitations. Our quantitative approach requires at best match to fulfil five different event layer identification criteria: (1) grain-size > 20-24 μm; (2) < 85% of fine material < 63 μm; (3) layer-thickness > 2.5 ...
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... lost due to liquefaction. Therefore, cores BH6 and BH7 were spliced together by means of prominent event layers to replace missing material. This led to a maximum core length of 8.55 m and achieves the highest possible temporal resolution from modern times throughout almost the entire Common Era. By using supportive high-resolution core pictures (Fig. 1e), visual core description was done, including descriptions of different unconsolidated lithologies, measurements of mean annual layer thickness, differentiation of background versus event deposits, description of sedimentary structures, registration of macrofossils and characterization of sedimentary contacts (Suppl. ...
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How much the observed long-term variability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity is due to anthropogenic global warming (GW) or internal climate variability remains unclear, limiting the confidence in projected future change in TC activity. Here, the relative contributions of GW and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) to the long-term variabili...
Citations
... Paleotempestological techniques based on storm induced sedimentary deposits (Donnelly and Woodruff, 2007;Denommee et al., 2014;Donnelly et al., 2015;Liu et al., 2019;Schmitt et al., 2020;Castagno et al., 2021;Green et al., 2022;Sullivan et al., 2022) can help extend the instrumental record and provide analogues for future climatic scenarios (Wallace et al., 2021). Many of these archives have specifically been focused in the GOM (e.g., Liu and Fearn, 2000;Donnelly, 2005;Lane et al., 2011;Brandon et al., 2013;Naquin et al., 2014;Wallace et al., 2014;Bregy et al., 2018;Rodysill et al., 2020;Yao et al., 2020a); however, long-term records in the Eastern GOM (Lane et al., 2011;Brandon et al., 2013;Naquin et al., 2014;Bregy et al., 2018;Rodysill et al., 2020) vastly outnumber those in the western GOM (e.g., Wallace and Anderson, 2010). ...
... Although these two time periods in which the ITCZ occupied a more southerly position suggest variability in terms of TC impacts, it is possible that the ITCZ position was a major driver of TC dynamics for the western GOM. As pointed out by Schmitt et al., 2020, an ITCZ positioned farther south, results in a more favorable, southern genesis location. A southern genesis location results in TCs with cluster 4 characteristics, which rarely make landfall along the US East Coast. ...
... J. Wallace, Dee, & Emanuel, 2021), including lakes (Liu & Fearn, 2000), coastal wetlands (Boldt et al., 2010;Donnelly et al., 2001;McCloskey & Keller, 2009), and back-barrier lagoons (Davis et al., 1989;Donnelly & Woodruff, 2007). Recent work has expanded paleohurricane research into the hurricane-prone tropical Atlantic using sediment records collected from coastal karst basins, including fully submerged blue holes (Schmitt et al., 2020;E. Wallace et al., 2019;Winkler et al., 2020) and sub-aerial sinkholes (Brandon et al., 2013;Brown et al., 2014;Lane et al., 2011). ...
... These basins are well suited for producing paleoTC archives because (a) they have large accommodation spaces that allow sediment accumulation (Dill, 1970), (b) they have anoxic conditions at the bottom which limit bioturbation (Gischler et al., 2008), and (c) they are often surrounded by reefs and tidal flats which provide abundant sediment supply (Gischler et al., 2008;Shinn et al., 1996). In particular, paleohurricane records from blue holes (Schmitt et al., 2020;Winkler et al., 2020) are typically very high resolution (annual to near annual) which allows these archives to resolve many different storms from the observational records unlike other low resolution archives (McCloskey & Keller, 2009). ...
Sediment cores from blue holes have emerged as a promising tool for extending the record of long‐term tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, interpreting this archive is challenging because storm surge depends on many parameters including TC intensity, track, and size. In this study, we use climatological‐hydrodynamic modeling to interpret paleohurricane sediment records between 1851 and 2016 and assess the storm surge risk for Long Island in The Bahamas. As the historical TC data from 1988 to 2016 is too limited to estimate the surge risk for this area, we use historical event attribution in paleorecords paired with synthetic storm modeling to estimate TC parameters that are often lacking in earlier historical records (i.e., the radius of maximum wind for storms before 1988). We then reconstruct storm surges at the sediment site for a longer time period of 1851–2016 (the extent of hurricane Best Track records). The reconstructed surges are used to verify and bias‐correct the climatological‐hydrodynamic modeling results. The analysis reveals a significant risk for Long Island in The Bahamas, with an estimated 500‐year stormtide of around 1.63 ± 0.26 m, slightly exceeding the largest recorded level at site between 1988 and 2015. Finally, we apply the bias‐corrected climatological‐hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the surge risk under two carbon emission scenarios. Due to sea level rise and TC climatology change, the 500‐year stormtide would become 2.69 ± 0.50 and 3.29 ± 0.82 m for SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively by the end of the 21st century.
... Records of Atlantic hurricane impacts have been extended back in time using historical archives (Chenoweth & Divine, 2008;García-Herrera et al., 2005;Trouet et al., 2016) and proxy based reconstructions from the Northeastern Atlantic (Boldt et al., 2010;Brandon et al., 2014;Castagno et al., 2021;Donnelly et al., 2001aDonnelly et al., , 2001bDonnelly et al., , 2015Mallinson et al., 2011;Yang et al., 2020), the Gulf of Mexico (Brandon et al., 2013;Bregy et al., 2018;Lane et al., 2011;Liu & Fearn, 1993, 2000Rodysill et al., 2020;Toomey et al., 2017), Yucatan Peninsula (Baldini et al., 2016;Denomee et al., 2014;Gischler et al., 2013;McCloskey & Liu, 2012;Schmitt et al., 2020;Sullivan et al., 2022), and subtropical North Atlantic (Biguenet et al., 2021;Toomey et al., 2013;van Hengstum et al., 2016). However, large gaps remain in spatial coverage across the Atlantic and most regions lack sufficient reconstructions to assess record reproducibility. ...
... Shinn et al. (1996) identified the potential for inundated sinkholes known as blue holes to function as natural sediment traps, noting background sedimentation of fine-grained aragonitic mud interrupted by skeletal carbonate sand deposited by hurricanes. Since then, Common Era (CE) hurricane activity has been reconstructed at near annual-resolution from Lighthouse Blue Hole in Belize (Denomee et al., 2014; Gischler Schmitt et al., 2020) and in a transect of blue holes across the Bahamian Archipelago (Figure 1a; Wallace et al., 2019;Wallace et al., 2021b;Wallace et al., 2021c;Winkler et al., 2021;Winkler et al., 2020). This work demonstrates that blue holes can have linear sedimentation rates of 1-3 cm/yr as they accumulate carbonate mud during fair conditions, and coarser-textured horizons (i.e., sand, gravel) during high-energy conditions such during hurricanes. ...
The year 2020 Common Era (CE) experienced the highest number of named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean since 1850 CE, but the short instrumental record makes it challenging to assess if this level of activity is statistically meaningful. Here, we present two near‐annually resolved hurricane reconstructions from sediment archived in two blue holes located only 300 m apart on the northern margin of Grand Bahama. These two blue holes provide a replicated signal of hurricanes passing within a 50–100 km radius over the last 1,800 years, and the long‐term reconstructions document multiple 50‐to‐150‐year intervals when hurricane frequency was significantly higher than it has been over the last 100 years. These two records were first merged into a single stack, and then compiled with five other high‐resolution reconstructions from across the Bahamian Archipelago to form a single 1500‐year record of Bahamian hurricane frequency. This new Bahamian Compilation documents more hurricanes passing ∼75°W from 21°N to 26°N during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300–1850 CE) relative to the prior millennium and the last 170 years. The US Eastern Seaboard also experienced heightened hurricane activity during the LIA, whereas the Gulf of Mexico and Southern Caribbean were inactive. This suggests that despite a globally cooler climate, regional climate conditions during the LIA remained favorable for cyclogenesis and intensification along certain Atlantic hurricane pathways. Perhaps heightened Sahel rainfall during the LIA indicates an increase in African Easterly waves, which in turn possibly seeded more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Main Development Region.
... However, the high sea level stand, no more than 1 m above modern levels, reported during the last 1 ky (Khan et al., 2017) can be expected to have had destabilizing effects on the sand dune ridge, triggering coastal sediment mobilization. This higher sea level stand coincided with high sea surface temperatures (SST) and high storminess (frequent and high intensity) during the Medieval Warm Period (Knowles, 2008;Schmitt et al., 2020). Recent marine ecology studies for Two Foot Bay report the barrier reef to be mostly dead (Ruttenberg et al., 2018). ...
... At that time, the coral reef could be expected to be healthy and productive, already around 1.5-2 ky old. Given sediment accumulation, sea level stability and low storm incidence during those centuries of the Late-Holocene (Knowles, 2008;Schmitt et al., 2020), the local beach is expected to have been wider, making sediment more readily available for transport toward the sand dunes. The fact that the cultural layer is truncated (i.e. ...
The earliest peoples arrived on the island of Barbuda in the Lesser Antilles more than 4,000 years ago. The Archaic Age (circa 2000 – 500 BCE) was marked by peoples targeting the fishing of the Queen conch. Later settlement was by groups traveling from South America and are named by their ceramic tradition and placed in the Early Ceramic or Saladoid time-period (circa 100 BCE – AD 900), and Late Ceramic Indigenous cultures or Troumassoid (AD 900 - 1490). The European colonization starting at AD 1628 left a significant impact on the island’s environment but unlike many other islands, sugar cane was never grown on Barbuda. During the Colonial Pe-riod we see the introduction of new agricultural practices, animal and plant species, and a divi-sion of the land in separate sections for agriculture, people, and animals. After emancipation (AD 1834), the people of Barbuda continued to fish and farm, demonstrating resilience despite extreme climatic and weather events (hurricanes and droughts). This article explores the landscape dy-namics at the island of Barbuda in the context of changing climate to understand 1) the setting of indigenous settlements and their environmental context since abandonment; 2) the impacts of current coastal processes over the archaeological record; and 3) the potential threats moving for-ward towards increasing pressure of climate change in the context of the modern Barbudan and international societies. The results of this analysis can be used to improve long-term management of the heritage resources of Barbudans and shed light on parallel challenges experienced on other tropical coastal locations.
... Changes in the position and latitudinal extent of the ITCZ are coupled to large-scale patterns of sea-surface temperature variability in the tropical North Atlantic [472,473,474] and the tropical Pacific [475]. The seasonal amplitude of rainfall in the Maya lowlands is additionally affected by tropical cyclones (TCs, July-October) and northerly winter storms (Nov-Feb) [476,477]. Several hypotheses for the climatological origins of the Terminal Classic drought have been proposed [478], including the latitudinal migration of the ITCZ [479,454], significant changes of tropical Northern Atlantic sea-surface temperatures [472,480,473,474], persistent El Niño conditions and potential interactions with TCs [476] as well as an interplay of some of these processes [473]. ...
... The seasonal amplitude of rainfall in the Maya lowlands is additionally affected by tropical cyclones (TCs, July-October) and northerly winter storms (Nov-Feb) [476,477]. Several hypotheses for the climatological origins of the Terminal Classic drought have been proposed [478], including the latitudinal migration of the ITCZ [479,454], significant changes of tropical Northern Atlantic sea-surface temperatures [472,480,473,474], persistent El Niño conditions and potential interactions with TCs [476] as well as an interplay of some of these processes [473]. ...
Our ability to predict the state of a system relies on its tendency to recur to states it has visited before. Recurrence also pervades common intuitions about the systems we are most familiar with: daily routines, social rituals and the return of the seasons are just a few relatable examples. To this end, recurrence plots (RP) provide a systematic framework to quantify the recurrence of states. Despite their conceptual simplicity, they are a versatile tool in the study
of observational data. The global climate is a complex system for which an understanding based on observational data is not only of academical relevance, but vital for the predurance
of human societies within the planetary boundaries. Contextualizing current global climate change, however, requires observational data far beyond the instrumental period. The palaeoclimate record offers a valuable archive of proxy data but demands methodological approaches that adequately address its complexities. In this regard, the following dissertation aims at
devising novel and further developing existing methods in the framework of recurrence analysis (RA). The proposed research questions focus on using RA to capture scale-dependent
properties in nonlinear time series and tailoring recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to characterize seasonal variability in palaeoclimate records (‘Palaeoseasonality’).
In the first part of this thesis, we focus on the methodological development of novel
approaches in RA. The predictability of nonlinear (palaeo)climate time series is limited by abrupt transitions between regimes that exhibit entirely different dynamical complexity (e.g. crossing of ‘tipping points’). These possibly depend on characteristic time scales. RPs are well-established for detecting transitions and capture scale-dependencies, yet few approaches have combined both aspects. We apply existing concepts from the study of self-similar textures to RPs to detect abrupt transitions, considering the most relevant time scales. This combination of methods further results in the definition of a novel recurrence based nonlinear
dependence measure. Quantifying lagged interactions between multiple variables is a common problem, especially in the characterization of high-dimensional complex systems. The
proposed ‘recurrence flow’ measure of nonlinear dependence offers an elegant way to characterize such couplings. For spatially extended complex systems, the coupled dynamics of
local variables result in the emergence of spatial patterns. These patterns tend to recur in time. Based on this observation, we propose a novel method that entails dynamically distinct
regimes of atmospheric circulation based on their recurrent spatial patterns. Bridging the two parts of this dissertation, we next turn to methodological advances of RA for the study of Palaeoseasonality. Observational series of palaeoclimate ‘proxy’ records involve inherent limitations, such as irregular temporal sampling. We reveal biases in the RQA of time series with a non-stationary sampling rate and propose a correction scheme.
In the second part of this thesis, we proceed with applications in Palaeoseasonality. A review of common and promising time series analysis methods shows that numerous valuable
tools exist, but their sound application requires adaptions to archive-specific limitations and consolidating transdisciplinary knowledge. Next, we study stalagmite proxy records from the
Central Pacific as sensitive recorders of mid-Holocene El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. The records’ remarkably high temporal resolution allows to draw links between
ENSO and seasonal dynamics, quantified by RA. The final study presented here examines how seasonal predictability could play a role for the stability of agricultural societies. The Classic
Maya underwent a period of sociopolitical disintegration that has been linked to drought events. Based on seasonally resolved stable isotope records from Yok Balum cave in Belize, we
propose a measure of seasonal predictability. It unveils the potential role declining seasonal predictability could have played in destabilizing agricultural and sociopolitical systems of
Classic Maya populations.
The methodological approaches and applications presented in this work reveal multiple exciting future research avenues, both for RA and the study of Palaeoseasonality.
... Denomee et al., 2014;Donnelly & Woodruff, 2007;Lane et al., 2011;Sabatier et al., 2012;Schmitt et al., 2020;van Hengstum et al., 2016;E. Wallace et al., 2019;Winkler et al., 2020) ...
Although many studies have attempted to reconstruct millennial‐scale hurricane patterns using various proxy‐based methods, it is still unclear what the most effective proxies are to identify storm surge deposits in different environmental settings. This study quantitatively compares the application of grain‐size, loss‐on‐ignition, stable isotopes, X‐ray fluorescence, and palynological proxies in paleotempestology from an organic‐rich environment in the Florida Everglades. The nonparametric tests indicate that only 9 among the 27 parameters (mean diameter, %water, %organic, %carbonate, Ca, Sr, Ca/Ti, Cl/Br, and marine microfossils) exhibited significant differences between storm‐surge and in situ deposits. The principal component analysis shows that five marine indicators (Sr, Ca, Ca/Ti, %Carbonate, and Marine microfossils) have the closest association with the allochthonous samples, while Cl/Br and Mz are the most sensitive proxies in low‐ and high‐energy environments, respectively. Moreover, organic geochemical proxies (e.g., δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N of bulk sedimentary organic matter) are ineffective for identifying storm‐surge deposits in organic‐rich mangrove environments.
... Changes in the position and latitudinal extent of the ITCZ are coupled to large-scale patterns of sea-surface temperature variability in the tropical North Atlantic 51-53 and the tropical Pacific 54 . The seasonal amplitude of rainfall in the Maya lowlands is additionally affected by tropical cyclones (TCs, July-October) and northerly winter storms (Nov-Feb) 55,56 . ...
Classic Maya populations living in peri-urban states were highly dependent on seasonally distributed rainfall for reliable surplus crop yields. Despite intense study of the potential impact of decadal to centennial-scale climatic changes on the demise of Classic Maya sociopolitical institutions (750-950 CE), its direct importance remains debated. We provide a detailed analysis of a precisely dated speleothem record from Yok Balum cave, Belize, that reflects local hydroclimatic changes at seasonal scale over the past 1600 years. We find that the initial disintegration of Maya sociopolitical institutions and population decline occurred in the context of a pronounced decrease in the predictability of seasonal rainfall and severe drought between 700 and 800 CE. The failure of Classic Maya societies to successfully adapt to volatile seasonal rainfall dynamics likely contributed to gradual but widespread processes of sociopolitical disintegration. We propose that the complex abandonment of Classic Maya population centres was not solely driven by protracted drought but also aggravated by yearto-year decreases in rainfall predictability, potentially caused by a regional reduction in coherent Intertropical Convergence Zone-driven rainfall.
... Other drivers of change that are expected to have impacted coastal ecosystem distribution include tectonism -that is, earthquakes, tsunamis, land subsidence or uplift -and climate-related hazards such as changes in frequency and intensity of hurricanes, sea surface temperature or accumulation of sediment runoff after frequent high intensity storms (Frölicher and Laufkötter, 2018;Ghazali et al., 2018;Johnson et al., 2018;Patrick et al., 2020). These drivers of environmental and geomorphological change have been recorded throughout Puerto Rico's history (Doser et al., 2005;Lopez-Venegas,AM et al., 2008) such as during the Early Holocene (Piety et al., 2018;Prentice and Mann, 2005) and at the onset of the Medieval Warm Period (Schmitt et al., 2020). While these variables were not directly measured in this study, they have the potential to affect long-term changes in settlement patterns (Goff and Nunn, 2016;Salazar et al., 2022;Shtienberg et al., 2020) and should be searched for and measured in the future. ...
Coasts are dynamic environments prone to the physical and social impacts of climate change. Examining the archaeological and environmental records of coastal areas can deepen our understanding of how humans respond to changing environmental conditions. In this article we consider how sea-level rise impacted coastal environments through time, and how these changes could pose opportunities or challenges to local indigenous populations. We present new findings of coastal zone transformations and past settlement patterns for Borikén, the largest island of the Puerto Rican archipelago, during the Holocene. We use paleogeographic modeling to reconstruct ecosystem availability for six discernible coastlines at 1000-year resolutions that accounts for past relative sea-level (RSL) heights and paleotidal ranges. We then compared ecosystem availability trends with the spatiotemporal distributions of available archaeological data to demonstrate the localized impacts of climate-related RSL rise across the island’s coastal ecosystems and suggest a consideration of habitat availability in past decision-making strategies. We observe a strong presence of Archaic Period sites in the island’s southwest coast where high coastal ecosystem availability and stability were present during this period. We also observe a significant expansion of intertidal ecosystems beginning at 3 kya for the north-central, north-eastern, south-central, and south-eastern coastlines that correspond to the appearance of materials associated with Early and Late Ceramic Periods cultures in these areas. This comparison of differential coastal transformations and site distributions conveys a deeper understanding of factors involved in past decision-making strategies and contributes to the emerging picture of human adaptations amidst changing environmental conditions.
... The paleo-hurricane records most proximal to Muyil are the multiple reconstructions from Great Blue Hole on Lighthouse Reef, Belize [43][44][45] (Figure S12). On centennial timescales, the new reconstruction from Cenote Muyil broadly corresponds to the patterns of storm activity identified in Gischler et al. 44 and Denommee et al. 43 , which all show increased activity during the Late and Postclassic Periods and decreased activity during the Little Ice Age. ...
... On centennial timescales, the new reconstruction from Cenote Muyil broadly corresponds to the patterns of storm activity identified in Gischler et al. 44 and Denommee et al. 43 , which all show increased activity during the Late and Postclassic Periods and decreased activity during the Little Ice Age. Furthermore, the recent work of Schmitt et al. 45 does acknowledge evidence of tropical cyclone activity coincident with arid intervals in the ninth and eleventh centuries. It remains a problem, however, that the reconstruction of Schmitt et al. 45 substantially diverges from the earlier records from Great Blue Hole (see Supplementary Figure S12). ...
... Furthermore, the recent work of Schmitt et al. 45 does acknowledge evidence of tropical cyclone activity coincident with arid intervals in the ninth and eleventh centuries. It remains a problem, however, that the reconstruction of Schmitt et al. 45 substantially diverges from the earlier records from Great Blue Hole (see Supplementary Figure S12). Confoundingly, the earlier and more recent reconstructions depict very different storm frequencies over the past millennium. ...
The collapse of the Maya civilization in the late 1st/early 2nd millennium CE has been attributed to multiple internal and external causes including overpopulation, increased warfare, and environmental deterioration. Yet the role hurricanes may have played in the fracturing of Maya socio-political networks, site abandonment, and cultural reconfiguration remains unexplored. Here we present a 2200 yearlong hurricane record developed from sediment recovered from a flooded cenote on the northeastern Yucatan peninsula. The sediment archive contains fine grain autogenic carbonate interspersed with anomalous deposits of coarse carbonate material that we interpret as evidence of local hurricane activity. This interpretation is supported by the correlation between the multi-decadal distribution of recent coarse beds and the temporal distribution of modern regional landfalling storms. In total, this record allows us to reconstruct the variable hurricane conditions impacting the northern lowland Maya during the Late Preclassic, Classic, and Postclassic Periods. Strikingly, persistent above-average hurricane frequency between ~ 700 and 1450 CE encompasses the Maya Terminal Classic Phase, the declines of Chichén Itza, Cobá, and subsequent rise and fall of the Mayapán Confederacy. This suggests that hurricanes may have posed an additional environmental stressor necessary of consideration when examining the Postclassic transformation of northern Maya polities.
... However, only the most intense storms tend to leave signatures as many of these records are in lacustrine or back-barrier environments and are heavily dependent on coastal geomorphology, hydrodynamic conditions, and storm characteristics 19 . Therefore, the temporal consistency afforded by high-resolution records are critical to supplement event gaps for coarser records [25][26][27][28] . ...
Understanding the response of tropical cyclone precipitation to ongoing climate change is essential to determine associated flood risk. However, instrumental records are short-term and fail to capture the full range of variability in seasonal totals of precipitation from tropical cyclones. Here we present a 473-year-long tree-ring proxy record comprised of longleaf pine from excavated coffins, a historical house, remnant stumps, and living trees in southern Mississippi, USA. We use cross-dating dendrochronological analyses calibrated with instrumental records to reconstruct tropical cyclone precipitation stretching back to 1540 CE. We compare this record to potential climatic controls of interannual and multidecadal tropical cyclone precipitation variability along the Gulf Coast. We find that tropical cyclone precipitation declined significantly in the two years following large Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions and is influenced by the behavior of the North Atlantic subtropical high-pressure system. Additionally, we suggest that tropical cyclone precipitation variability is significantly, albeit weakly, related to Atlantic multidecadal variability. Finally, we suggest that we need to establish a network for reconstructing precipitation from tropical cyclones in the Southeast USA if we want to capture regional tropical cyclone behavior and associated flood risks.
