Table 4 - uploaded by Wim Paas
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Citations
... The Wet scenario was combined (following Riedijk et al., 2007) with the B2 storyline, which assumes an increase in energy efficiency and income equality, while employment and labour productivity growth both decline. For the Netherlands, this storyline is expected to result in a relatively strong increase in prices for arable products, while prices for dairy and meat products are likely to experience a more moderate growth (Wolf et al., 2011;de Vries et al., 2013;Paas, 2013;Kanellopoulos et al., 2014). The Dry scenario is associated with a combination of the A1B and A2 storyline, showing a strong increase of employment and labour productivity growth; income inequality and consequently the use of fossil-fuels increases, decreasing energy efficiency. ...
... The Dry scenario is associated with a combination of the A1B and A2 storyline, showing a strong increase of employment and labour productivity growth; income inequality and consequently the use of fossil-fuels increases, decreasing energy efficiency. In the Netherlands, this is expected to result in a stronger increase of all agricultural prices than in the socio economic scenario that was coupled to the Wet scenario, and in particular for arable and horticulture products (Wolf et al., 2011;de Vries et al., 2013;Paas, 2013;Kanellopoulos et al. 2014). Finally, according to the B2 storyline, ambitions (and thus budgets) for nature development are higher in the scenario associated with wetter conditions than in the scenario associated with drier conditions. ...
Climate change is projected to strongly affect the hydrological cycle, altering water availability and causing successive shifts in vegetation composition and distribution. To reduce potential negative effects on vegetation, policymakers may implement hydrological climate adaptation measures, which may-in turn-require land use changes to be successful. Policy driven land use changes should therefore be taken into account when evaluating climate change and adaptation effects on the water-vegetation system, but this is rarely done. To support such policy interventions, we applied a coupled land use-hydrology-vegetation model to simulate effects of (i) climate change, (ii) socioeconomic change, (iii) hydrological measures and (iv) policy driven land use change, alone and in interaction, on vegetation communities in the Netherlands. We simulated two climate scenarios for 2050 that differed in predicted temperature (+0.9 °C and +2.8 °C) and precipitation changes (groundwater recharge +4% or −14%). The associated socioeconomic scenarios differed in the increase of gross margins per agricultural class. The land use changes concerned agricultural changes and development of new nature areas from agricultural land. Individually, land use changes had the biggest effect on vegetation distribution and composition, followed by the hydrological measures and climate change itself. Our results also indicate that the combination of all four factors triggered the biggest response in the extent of newly created nature areas (+6.5%) and the highest diversity in vegetation types, compared to other combinations (max. +5.4%) and separate factors. This study shows that an interdisciplinary, coupled modelling approach is essential when evaluating climate adaptation measures.
... Input parameters, such as capital, feed, cows, area, and other input (land preparation, maintenance, veterinary services) and output parameters, such as milk, meat, crops, subsidies and other output were derived from FADN-data [35]. Manure production, grass and maize yields were calculated with information from [39] and literature [40]. ...
Climate and socio-economic change will affect the land use and the economic viability of Dutch dairy farms. Explorations of future scenarios, which include different drivers and impacts, are needed to perform ex-ante policy assessment. This study uses a bio-economic farm model to assess impacts of climate and socio-economic change on dairy farms in a sandy area in the Netherlands. Farm data from the Farm Accountancy Data Network provided information on the current production levels and available farm resources. First, the farm plans of individual farms were optimized in the current situation to benchmark farms and assess the current scope for improvement. Secondly, simulations for two scenarios were included: a Global Economy with 2 °C global temperature rise (GE/W+) and a Regional Community with 1 °C global temperature rise (RC/G). The impacts of climate change, extreme events, juridical change (including abolishment of milk quota), technological change and price changes were evaluated in separate model runs within the predefined scenarios. We found that farms can increase profit both by intensification and land expansion; the latter especially for medium sized farms (less than 70 cows). Climate change including the effect of increased occurrence of extreme events may negatively affect farm gross margin in the GE/W+ scenario. Lower gross margins are compensated for by the effects of technology and price changes. In contrast with the GE/W+ scenario, climate change has positive impacts on farm profit in RC/G, but less favourable farm input-output price ratios have a negative effect. Technological change is needed to compensate for revenue losses due to higher input prices. In both GE/W+ and RC/G scenarios, dairy farms increase production and the use of artificial fertilizer. Medium sized farms have more options to increase profit than the large farms: they benefit more from the abolishment of the milk quota and better adapt to negative and positive impacts of climate change.
... There are several possible approaches of calculating the effects of extreme events on crop yield. In the present study we did not account for current impact of extreme events on current yields, whereas Paas (2013) included the current impacts. Diogo et al. (2014) also did it differently: they showed both impacts of extreme events in the current and in the future situation, and did not focus on the change. ...
... An integrated modelling framework was developed to be able to assess multiple impacts of multiple drivers at farm and landscape level. A scheme of the links between the models is shown in Fig. 2. The main models are the bio-economic farm model FSSIM (version 2.0; Kanellopoulos et al., 2014;Louhichi et al., 2010;Paas, 2013), the spatial agent-based model RULEX (Bakker et al., 2014), and the regional emission model INITIATOR , which are described briefly below. A more detailed description of all models can be found in the supplementary material. ...
... Changes in average gross margin (euro/farm/year) as simulated by FSSIM dairy (Paas, 2013), and corrected for farm structural change as simulated by RULEX (i.e. accounting for the fact that the average farm size grows). ...
... Both economic efficiency of dairy farms (outputs/inputs) and milk production increase towards 2050 in the combined W+/GE and G/RC scenarios, but effects of climate change are negative in W+ and almost neutral in G. Increasing efficiency is specifically due to technological development, but also due to the growth in farm size, as large farms are on average more efficient (7% in the observed situation). Increasing milk yield and the growth of farms also cause an increase in average milk production per farm (Paas, 2013), but the decreasing number of farms limits growth in total regional milk production to + 36% in W +/GE and +3% in G/RC. ...
... Melkopbrengsten stijgen veelal lineair (Paas, 2013;LEI, 2012), en de verwachting is dat ook dit voorlopig doorzet. ...
... Minder regenval in het W+ scenario zorgt echter ook voor waterstress. Schattingen op basis van het gewasmodel LINGRA zijn dat in W+ de grasopbrengst met 2% daalt, en in G met 23% stijgt (Paas, 2013); dit is echter locatie afhankelijk. ...
Deze studie heeft als doel om de effecten van klimaatverandering op de land- en tuinbouw in kaart te brengen, in de huidige situatie en voor de (midden)lange termijn (2050). Op basis daarvan worden de risico’s en kansen voor de sector geïdentificeerd en de adaptatiemaatregelen waarmee risico’s kunnen worden opvangen en kansen worden benut. De doelstelling van deze studie is het actualiseren van kwetsbaarheden, risico’s en kansen voor de Nederlandse land- en tuinbouw gerelateerd aan klimaatverandering. De beoogde uitkomsten zijn: Een concrete aanduiding van de aard en omvang kwetsbaarheid en klimaatrisico’s, Een lijst van mogelijke indicatoren voor kwetsbaarheid.
