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Adapting to new climate conditions will require an intricate mix of knowledge, planning, coordination, and foresight. There is increasing sectoral evidence on the implementation of successful adaptation actions. However, the success of these actions when we consider the interdependencies among sectors remains debatable. This paper aims to assess wh...
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Urban areas are increasingly affected by extreme heat in the face of climate change, while the size and vulnerability of exposed populations are shifting due to economic development, demographic change, and urbanization. In addition to the need to assess future urban heat-related health risks, there is also an increasing need to design adaptation s...
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... A complex interaction of these variables (climatic and productive) has led water-scarce regions to produce more water-intensive but higher-value crops. In regions where water resources for agricultural purposes are scarce, a potential reduction of 56% in water usage can be achieved by cultivating crops better adapted to the area's green and blue water availability 27 . ...
... For agriculture to be a sustainable activity over time, it is necessary to include all approaches for mitigation and adaptation to water-scarce environments, from broadly tolerant crops to the introduction of climate and disease-resistant seed varieties, diversification, and crop calendars. In addition to the above, better information www.nature.com/scientificreports/ on droughts and climate variables, planned and comprehensive agricultural relocation, support for land use changes, and marketing strategies 53 become necessary, with productive land and fertile soil being the most important natural capital asset 27 . Therefore, soil preparation is essential, such as zero tillage and composting, the introduction of cover crops, intensive grazing management, and reduction in the use of chemical and synthetic inputs. ...
Changes in water availability have a substantial impact on the sustainability and maintenance of agriculture, with water footprint (WF) being a robust methodology to assess these transformations. The Guadalupe Valley is one of the places with the highest agricultural production in Mexico. Despite its semi-arid climatic conditions, it provides high-quality crops that are well-positioned in the world. The historical trend of rainfall and temperatures between 1987 and 2017 was analyzed to identify climatic patterns in the territory. Through the calculations of the water footprint of Grapevine and Olive crops, the sensitivity of the crops to recurrent water deficit and their adaptation in their yields to drought episodes was identified. The reduction in precipitation and occurrence of extreme temperatures have contributed significantly towards augmenting crop evapotranspiration and, consequently, intensifying crop irrigation demands. As a result, there has been an apparent increase in the consumption of WFagricultural since 2007. Thus, the period of highest WFagricultural consumption was 2014 (Extremely dry), as opposed to 2011 (Very wet). In particular, the lowest WFgreen consumptions were observed in extremely dry years, that is, > 20% of the WFagricultural intensifying drought events. Therefore, these periods were compensated with higher uses of WFblue and WFgray, which are inversely correlated with precipitation, where vine crops consume 73% more WFagricultural compared to olive plantations, showing greater interannual variability. These results contribute to analyzing the temporal evolution of water consumption for agriculture, providing a basis for rational water use strategies.
... Regarding the HEM approach, most studies have been conducted in North America and Europe, with few applications in developing countries (Bekchanov et al., 2017). At the Latin-American level, studies have been conducted in Chile, including the economic assessments of climate change at the national (Ponce Oliva et al., 2015;Ponce Oliva et al., 2015) and basinlevel (Fernández et al., 2016;Ponce Oliva et al., 2017), the economic impact of climate change on smallholders livelihoods (Fernández et al., 2019), and the assessment of different adaptations options in a multi-user river basin (Ponce Oliva et al., 2021). Other studies include the economic impacts of drought on land use in Brazil (Maneta et al., 2009), trade-offs assessment between navigation and hydropower generation capacity expansions in Panama (Watkins Jr & & Moser, 2006), and sustainability and spill control in México (Schoups et al., 2006), among others. ...
The growth of traditional crops could be a primary resource for adapting to climate change and strengthening agrosystems’ resilience. However, these crops tend to be replaced by non-traditional crops with higher productivity, higher market values, and higher short-term income. In this context, smallholders face trade-offs between maximizing short-term income and ensuring resilience to face likely future climate adversities. The economic assessment of such trade-offs has been commonly neglected in the literature. Most studies are conducted using agronomic or anthropological frameworks to recognize the value of traditional agriculture to increase adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability. This study fills this gap by assessing economic and agronomic trade-offs between traditional and non-traditional crops triggered by climate-induced changes in water availability. We also simulate the effectiveness of a water policy. Our results suggest that farmers growing traditional crops may get lower profits, but their portfolio is more resilient to climate change, whereas the water policy proves to be an effective adaptation strategy to climate change. However, the policy implementation could hinder the development of traditional crops. Based on our results, we suggest implementing smart agricultural policies to balance economic, cultural, and adaptation goals.
... Third, there are some recent analyses that assess who benefit from adaptation measures, based on the assumption that the distribution of benefits from adaptation is not equal Ponce Oliva et al., 2021). There is also evidence of how the difference in who coordinates actions for adaptation can lead to different levels of benefits for those involved (Nthambi et al., 2021). ...
Considerations of justice with regards to climate change adaptation are increasingly called for in the academic literature, but little attention has been paid to the dimensions of justice regarding the development of adaptation policy and instruments used. Thus, there is a gap when it comes to connecting the dimensions of justice to different types of adaptation strategies and plans. Here, we synthesise the findings of previous studies to create an adaptation justice index for the four dimensions of climate justice in the context of adaptation: recognitional, distributive, procedural and restorative justice. This index can be used ex ante to analyse and compare climate adaptation strategies and plans in different societal contexts as well as at different levels of governance, and we illustrate this by analysing four national and four city-level strategies. As adaptation planning is still a relatively new area of climate governance, the results offer potential for justice informed evaluation of adaptation plans and strategies.
... Third, there are some recent analyses that assess who benefit from adaptation measures, based on the assumption that the distribution of benefits from adaptation is not equal Ponce Oliva et al., 2021). There is also evidence of how the difference in who coordinates actions for adaptation can lead to different levels of benefits for those involved (Nthambi et al., 2021). ...
... The HEM used in this study-The Vergara Hydro-Economic model (V-HEM)-Is a mathematical programming (MP) model designed to analyze FWW-related issues, linking users' economic behavior with hydrologic basin characteristics. The model is aggregated at the municipality level, and it is solved through a modular approach, using econometric and optimization methods [60,61]. The strengths of our approach are related to (1) the economic analysis of water users with explicit consideration of their geographical location; ...
Water resources face an unparalleled confluence of pressures, with agriculture and urban growth as the most relevant human-related stressors. In this context, methodologies using a Nexus framework seem to be suitable to address these challenges. However, the urban sector has been commonly ignored in the Nexus literature. We propose a Nexus framework approach, considering the economic dimensions of the interdependencies and interconnections among agriculture (food production) and the urban sector as water users within a common basin. Then, we assess the responses of both sectors to climatic and demographic stressors. In this setting, the urban sector is represented through an economic water demand at the household level, from which economic welfare is derived. Our results show that the Nexus components here considered (food, water, and welfare) will be negatively affected under the simulated scenarios. However, when these components are decomposed to their particular elements, we found that the less water-intensive sector—the urban sector—will be better off since food production will leave significant amounts of water available. Moreover, when addressing uncertainty related to climate-induced shocks, we could identify the basin resilience threshold. Our approach shows the compatibilities and divergences between food production and the urban sector under the Nexus framework.
Freshwater availability has decreased alarmingly worldwide, with agriculture playing a vital role in this trend. The assessment of the agricultural water footprint (WFagricultural) and virtual water flows (VWF) is fundamental not only in local water resources management and protection, but also in our understanding of the synergies between local water consumption and global markets. Thus, the WFagricultural - broken down into its components (blue, green, and gray) - of the leading 21 crops (grouped in fruit, legumes, cereals, and vegetables), grown in four basins with the most significant agricultural activity in central Chile was determined, estimated in two consecutive years 2017-2018. In addition, due to their great importance in exports, VWFs were assessed, establishing connections according to their origins and destinations. The results show that the green and gray water footprints increased significantly in the south-central basins, while blue water consumption increased in the basins of the central zone, reflecting an evident WFagricultural transition in accord with latitude and climate conditions. Furthermore, VWF showed an annual increase of 44 %, in about 116 destinations, with Asia, Europe, and North America being the preferred destinations, with annual variations of VWFblue- gray associated with increases in exports of apples, cherries, grapes, blueberries, and walnuts, market preferences and growing areas. The present study is an initial step toward sustainable agriculture in a commodity exporting country, one that is relevant in the exploitation of virtual water yet faces severe water deficit problems, distribution, and local water policies. Therefore, contributing to encouraging the efficiency and value of water in the process of a new institutional framework.
