Figure 3 - available via license: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Content may be subject to copyright.
Source publication
UComp is a powerful library for building unobserved components models, useful for forecasting and other important operations, such us de-trending, cycle analysis, seasonal adjustment, signal extraction, etc. One of the most outstanding features that makes UComp unique among its class of related software implementations is that models may be built a...
Context in source publication
Context 1
... are cut clear: (i) all models outperform the seasonal naïve by a wide margin; (ii) median performs better than mean, ARIMA, and ETS; (iii) ARIMA is better than ETS; (iv) BSM is better than all of them (except for the first two months); (v) still the UC identified by the procedures proposed in this paper is the best of all for every single horizon. Figure 3 shows the monthly index for food in large retail stores in Spain. The series exhibits a very strong seasonal pattern with a clear peak in December each year and a growing trend in the first half of the sample followed by a long stagnation period after 2008. ...
