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Location of Serbia in the Europe, altitude of the terrain in Serbia (m a.s.l.) and spatial distribution of the meteorological stations.
Source publication
This paper presents the results of a study focused on the projected changes in extreme precipitation during the 21st century in Central Serbia. The changes are investigated on the basis of historical and modelled data sets of daily precipitation. The historical observation data were recorded at 18 synoptic weather stations in Central Serbia and mod...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... Republic of Serbia is located on the Balkan Peninsula between latitudes 41°-47°N and longitudes 18°-23°E. Central Serbia has an area of 55,965 km 2 , hilly and mountainous configuration intersected with local river basins (Figure 1). The climate of Central Serbia is moderate continental with some specific characteristics, caused by the geographic location, relief, terrain exposure, etc. ...
Context 2
... and quality controls for these measurements were made by the National Meteorological Service of Serbia. The spatial distribution of the weather stations considered is presented in Figure 1 and their geographical coordinates are listed in Table 1. ...
Context 3
... the reference period, the average shares of daily precipitation in the total annual precipitation were about 17%, 6.6%, 2.5% and 1.1% for daily precipitation ≥ 20 mm, ≥ 30 mm, ≥ 40 mm, and ≥ 50 mm, respectively (Figure 10). According to the results of the modelled data analysis, the average share of this precipitation in the annual precipitation amount is expected to increase in the future. ...
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Purpose:
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Patients and methods:
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Citations
... Serbia is a hotspot of climate change in Europe (Kržič et al. 2011;Vuković, A.;Vujadinović-Mandić 2018;Erić et al. 2021). In the last two decades, almost the whole country has experienced an increase of mean maximum temperature during the summer season above 2.5 °C, while given projection up to the year 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario assumes increasing of 4.7 °C in the June-August period Vuković, A.;Vujadinović-Mandić 2018). ...
Key message
We applied the generalized algebraic difference approach (GADA) to develop dynamic models of height growth for pedunculate oak ( Quercus robur L.) in Serbia. According to the dominant heights, the studied region comprises some of Europe’s most productive sites for pedunculate oak. Therein, we have generated a map showing the current site index class of stands. Such a map could be used to enhance forest management and evaluate climate change impacts.
Context
Although sustainable forest management requires reliable prediction of forest site productivity, such indicators are currently unavailable for pedunculate oak sites in Serbia. The site index (SI) curves represent the most commonly used indirect scale for site productivity classification. The dynamic equations derived by the Generalized Algebraic Difference Approach (GADA) are the state-of-the-art approach in growth modeling, but they have not been widely applied for studying the height dynamics of pedunculate oak.
Aims
The main objectives of this study were to develop the first dynamic site index curves for pedunculate oak in Serbia and subsequently to provide stand-level maps with predicted site indices.
Methods
We have tested five flexible polymorphic equations with variable asymptotes derived by the GADA approach. Models were calibrated using artificially established growth trajectories obtained from 3636 detailed temporary sample plots. The selection of the most suitable model was accomplished according to (1) quantitative measures of goodness of fit, (2) the analysis of residual scattering, and (3) the biological plausibility of obtained height growth curves.
Results
After correcting the error terms with a continuous first-order autoregressive structure and conducting a three-stage performance analysis, the GADA dynamic site index model derived from the Hossfeld base equation shows the best overall properties. Insight into the oscillations of relative error suggested that 100 years is the most suitable age for site index referencing. Comparison with existing height growth models revealed greater flexibility and a considerably better representation of the height growth dynamic of pedunculate oak in the studied region. Additionally, we have produced a spatially explicit map showing the expected SI 100 for 1907 stands with pedunculate oak within 22 management units.
Conclusion
Dynamic SI-curves based on GADA will serve forest practitioners to update management plans and serve as a reference point for benchmarking the impact of climate change and for developing adaptation strategies. The utilized approach allowed unbiased estimation of SI 100 across all age classes so that the results could be mapped at a broader scale. This study provides the second known application of the dynamic model for pedunculate oak in Europe but the first that includes some of the most productive sites in the species distribution range.
... Luković et al. (2014) defined a spatial pattern of spring rainfall trends in Serbia and found positive trends in Western Serbia. Erić et al. (2021) found that the largest number of days with precipitation ≥ 20 mm and ≥ 30 mm occurred in western part of the Central Serbia during the reference period and predict a decrease in this number in the future till 2100 (using regional climate simulation data from the model EBU-POM under the SRES-A1B scenario). However, the same authors predict that the number of daily rainfall ≥ 50 mm at rainfall stations (Valjevo and Loznica) in Western Serbia will increase in the period 2011-2040. ...
The Ljuboviđa watershed in Western Serbia with an area of 158 km² is frequently affected by torrential floods, which have devastating effects. The soil characteristics, land use patterns and rugged topography ensure the rapid generation of surface runoff during extreme rainfall events. The main focus of this work is to reconstruct the extreme torrential flood event of Ljuboviđa on 22 June 2020, by applying three flood estimation methods suitable for ungauged watersheds—the hydraulic method of flood traces, the rational method and the combined method of Soil Conservation Service and synthetic unit hydrograph theory (SCS-SUH). In all three methods, there are the most sensitive and critical parameters, so the derivation of their values was carefully carried out. These parameters are the Manning roughness coefficient, n in the method of flood traces, the runoff coefficient, C in the rational method and the curve number, CN in the SCS-SUH method. Therefore, in the case of a watershed with no hydrological record, we propose the employment of multiple methods to minimize the uncertainties in the analysis of torrential floods. The approach with three implemented methods in this work allowed to compare the obtained results, i.e. estimated peak discharges: (a) QmaxFT = 176.8 m³ s⁻¹ by applying the hydraulic method of flood traces; (b) QmaxRM = 152.7 m³ s⁻¹ by applying the rational method; and (c) QmaxSCS = 186.7 m³ s⁻¹ by applying the SCS-SUH method. Taking into account the variability of the results, the mean peak discharge of the June 2020 Ljuboviđa flood of 172.07 m³ s⁻¹ is adopted, so the specific maximal discharge is 1.09 m³ s⁻¹ km⁻². According to the SCS-SUH method, we concluded that the flood event of Ljuboviđa on 22 June 2020, was a flood with a 100-year return period. The main results and findings could serve as a solid basis for designing future studies on flood risk management in response to the growing hazards of torrential floods.
The paper assesses climate changes in Nišava District, Serbia, focusing on 2001-2020 data from the E-OBS database. Findings show rising maximum and daily temperatures, slightly decreased precipitation, and increased extreme temperatures, and also indicate an increase in summer days, tropical days, and extreme temperatures, emphasizing the need for climate change adaptation. Risks include heatwaves, droughts, urban flooding, water scarcity, reduced agriculture, infrastructure damage, and health threats. Adapting with strategic planning and investments, especially in Niš, is crucial to enhance resilience and readiness for future challenges.
