Table 5 - uploaded by John R Mills
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--Fuelwood consumed (in billion cubic feet) in the United States by species group, and growing stock/non growing stock source, in 1986 with projections to 2040.
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This update reports changes in the US timber resource since the 1989 RPA timber assessment. The timber resource situation is analyzed to provide projections for future cost and availability of timber products to meet demands. Prospective trends in demands for and supplies of timber, and the factors that affect these trends are examined. These inclu...
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Citations
... According to Haynes et al. [9], for many reasons in composite board production, agricultural residues constitute excellent alternative to using virgin wood fibre. Aside their abundance and renewability, using agricultural residues will benefit farmers, industry, human health and the environment. ...
... Such forecasts have been used since the 1950s in outlook studies conducted by various governments and agencies (Hurmekoski and Hetemäki 2013). The 1993 Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) assessment update (Haynes et al. 1995) was one of the first such reports of the Internet age, and it incorporated an ad hoc adjustment of demand, accounting for future advertising in electronic media substituting for advertising in print media (Ince 1994). Although this adjustment applied across multiple paper products slowed the rate of growth in future newsprint consumption, it was not applied to most P&W paper grades and thus did not have nearly as large an impact on their projected demand growth. ...
In recent decades, the Internet, together with information and communication technologies such as personal computers and cellular phones, has provided an electronic alternative to newspapers and printed materials. We examine how Internet adoption has affected worldwide demand for newsprint and printing and writing papers. We find that the Internet has reduced demand for newsprint in all regions. These regions include the United States, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries other than the United States, the countries of the former Soviet Union (Reform), the Asian countries not in the OECD (Asia), and developing countries in Africa and Latin America. The effect is strongest in the United States, where we predict that as of 2011 newsprint consumption would have been 4 times higher in the absence of the Internet. The effects on printing and writing papers are more varied. The Internet is found to have reduced consumption in the United States and OECD countries, had a negligible effect in Asia and the Reform region, and increased consumption in Africa and Latin America. By accounting for Internet adoption, our new demand estimates have the potential to improve forecasts of paper consumption contained in forest outlook studies.
... Output of the industry as a whole (excluding construction paper) reaches 100 million tons in 2002, and 129 million tons in 2020 which is the last year of simulations. This result is slightly more conservative than USDA Forest Service's estimates that total paper production will reach 100 million tons by the year 2000 (USDA 1994, Haynes et al. 1995, Ince 1994. ...
Market-based climate change policy instruments, such as energy and carbon taxes, have frequently been proposed as efficient means to stimulate industrial energy efficiency improvements and to reduce carbon emissions. This paper presents an assessment of the impacts that energy and carbon taxes may have on energy use and emissions profiles of the US pulp and paper industry. Time series data and engineering information are combined to endgenously specify changes in technologies and fuel mix within a dynamic computer model. The results of the model indicate under a wide range of assumptions that revenue-neutral energy or carbon taxes will increase carbon emissions when compared to the absence of those taxes, and that carbon emissions are higher under carbon taxes than under comparable energy taxes. Those seemingly counter-intuitive results have significant policy implications which are discussed in this paper.
... (1) A "base" case that follows general timber market conditions 3 Four management intensity classes are used: passive (effective abandonment after harvest with limited natural regeneration and reduced yields), low (natural regeneration), medium (planting), and high (planting with improved stock, intermediate treatments such as fertilization or thinning). Basic inventory and timber yield information were derived from data collected for The 1993 RPA Timber Assessment Update (Haynes et al. 1995), Moulton and Richards (1980), and Birdsey (1992). The largest part of the timber management cost data were developed from regional input and price data by the authors. ...
... This approach adds a further element of realism to the capital limitation and has no impact on the general nature of our results or the conclusions that we draw from the analysis. described in Haynes et al. (1995) and agriculture market conditions as in Chang et al. (1992). 6 (2) A "high recycling" outlook, in which we allow wastepaper utilization rates in the United States to reach 60% by 2010 in contrast with 45% by 2040 in the base case (see Haynes et al. (1995) for further details of this case). ...
... described in Haynes et al. (1995) and agriculture market conditions as in Chang et al. (1992). 6 (2) A "high recycling" outlook, in which we allow wastepaper utilization rates in the United States to reach 60% by 2010 in contrast with 45% by 2040 in the base case (see Haynes et al. (1995) for further details of this case). This scenario Fig. 1. ...
Intertemporal timber supply models typically assume perfect capital markets and perfectly inelastic supplies of land. Using a dynamic model of U.S. timber and agriculture markets, we examine (i) borrowing limits or capital constraints, in which investment in forest management on nonindustrial private ownerships is restricted, and (ii) a nonzero elasticity of land supply. Results suggest that alternative treatments of supply conditions for these factors influence the flexibility of the simulated market system to adapt to changes over time and across policy scenarios. Supply restrictions limit adjustment options in management activities and force greater change in other endogenous elements such as price and consumption. Implications drawn from any policy analyses also differ with input supply assumptions. Policy impacts were found to be largely transitory in the cases without investment limits and essentially permanent when limits exist. Recognizing a price-sensitive land supply, at least as this process is represented in the present model, partially compensates for the imposition of borrowing restrictions, moving projections closer to behavior observed in the perfect capital market cases. Access to additional land as potential afforestation investments provides additional private investment flexibility. Typically, however, this linkage is neither explicit nor endogenous in forest sector models.
... First, 200 observations obtained in this period were deemed to be able to capture the effect of U.S. imposed tariffs on Canadian lumber imports. Second, 1990 was the year when the spotted owl was listed as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1990), and timber production from national forests in U.S. Northwest was greatly reduced for protecting spotted owls (Haynes et al., 1995). Data sources are listed in Table 1. ...
This research estimated dynamic supply and demand equations for the U.S. softwood lumber using two-stage least squares. Long-run and ECM equations were derived from the estimated coefficients. Empirical data included monthly observations from 1990 to late 2006. Stationarity of the residuals was explored using Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistics. Results suggest that demand and supply elasticities in both short and long-run are relatively small compared with past studies. The Canadian softwood lumber supply to the U.S. is more price elastic than the domestic softwood lumber supply. U.S. import tariffs have had limited impact on the amount of softwood lumber imported from Canada. Technological progress and end-of-year seasonal effects on softwood lumber demand and supply were significant over this period.
... The use of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models in analyses of the forest sector has been motivated by the importance of links between the forest sector and the rest of the economy (Haynes et al., 1995). In regions where the forest sector is an important contributor to employment and gross domestic product, the effect of changes in the forest sector on the economy may be of significant interest. ...
... FASOMGHG includes three different site classes to reflect differences in forestland productivity. These site groups were defined based on ATLAS inputs (Haynes, Adams, and Mills, 1995), where yields vary substantially between groups. FASOMGHG also tracks land ownership including two private forest owner groups: forest industry (FI) and nonindustrial private forests (NIPF). ...
A key consideration for development of energy and climate policy affecting the forestry and agricultural sectors is that the selection of specific mechanisms implemented to achieve bioenergy production and/or greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets may have substantial effects on landowner incentives to adopt alternative practices. For instance, the prices of allowances and offsets are expected to diverge under some policies being considered where there is a binding cap on the quantity of offsets from the agricultural and forest sectors. In addition, provisions that limit or exclude specific practices from receiving carbon payments will affect the quantity and cost of GHG mitigation opportunities available. In this study, the recently updated Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with GHGs (FASOMGHG) was used to estimate GHG mitigation potential for private land in the contiguous U.S. under a variety of GHG price policies. Model scenarios suggest that U.S. forestry and agriculture could provide mitigation of 200 – 1000 megatons carbon dioxide equivalent per year (Mt CO2e/year) at carbon prices of $15 to $50/tCO2e. Binding limits on offsets have increasingly large effects on both the total magnitude and distribution of GHG mitigation across options over time. In addition, discounting or excluding payments for forest sinks can reduce annualized land-based mitigation potential 37-90 percent relative to the full eligibility scenario whereas discounting or excluding agricultural practices reduces mitigation potential by less than 10 percent.
... ods are used. There are also 25 different forest species types, which vary by region (e.g., Douglas fir and other species types in the West and planted pine, natural pine, and various hardwood types in the South). Stand age is explicitly accounted for in 5-year cohorts ranging from 0 to 4 years up to 100+ years. 43 Haynes, R.W., D.M. Adams, and J. Mills. 1995 ...
... ed productivity affect potential transferability between timberland and agricultural uses, as described in Section A.1.3. 76 Because these unproductive forestlands are assumed to offer low productivity for agricultural uses as well, these land areas are not available for conversion to agricultural uses in FASOM. 77 Haynes, R.W., D.M. Adams, and J. Mills. 1995landowners. The traditional definitions are used for these ownership groups: industrial timberland owners are those that possess processing capacity for the timber, and NIPF owners do not. In FASOM, it is assumed that timberland owner by the FI cannot be converted to agriculture, whereas NIPF lands can move into agricultural production, ...
... Furthermore, the volume of hardwood trees larger than 48 centimeters in diameter doubled, while the volume of large softwood trees fell 30%. Demand for softwood, slowly growing supply, and even shrinking supply of large softwood trees have encouraged the intensive management of plantations of valuable softwoods, which are expected to raise supplies as plantations mature in the first decades of the next century (Haynes et al. 1995). The plantations are most prevalent in the South, which contains more than half of US. forest industry land. ...
... Paper mills use pulpwood harvested from the forest, wood residues, and wastepaper. Moreover, the use of abundant hardwoods to make pulp rose, from about a quarter of all pulp in 1976 to a third in 1990 (USDA ForestService 1982;Haynes et al. 1995). Within the forest products industry, paper and paperboard mills receive far the largest share of recycled products and residual wood (as shown infigure 3)figure 3). ...
... Even dead wood can become fuel. National statistics on the removal of growing stock show a small rise of fraction harvested (Haynes et al. 1995). Growing stock refers to trees of commercial species and quality larger than 13 cm diameter breast high. ...
The forest and the creatures it shelters exemplify nature, and logging exemplifies the impacts of humans. In the 1990s Americans annually removed 70% more timber from the forest than in 1900. Since I900 population rose more than three times and gross domestic product (GDP) per person almost five. Despite more people, affluence, and logging, U.S. forest area remained constant. Since mid-century, standing timber volume me nearly 30%. Consumers, millers, and foresters, responding to changes in style, ethics, and technology, have contributed to these outcomes. We examine the role of each actor in the industrial ecology of forests for their leverage for sparing forests. Consumers lessened their use of wood products per GDP (Intensity of Use) during the century by 2.5% annually to offset expanding population and GDP per person, a trend that will level or lower timber consumption if population and affluence grow as expected. Millers became highly efficient at utilizing wood and recycled fiber for their material or energy, a success that limits their fcrture leverage. Foresters have leverage to grow trees faster and thus use less forest land to grow and harvest timber. Steady or declining demand for trees coupled to productive forests could spare more US. forest land for sequestering carbon, ecosystem services, and habit for nature.
... Since its initial development in the late 1970s, TAMM has undergone a number of extensions and revisions designed to improve the behavioral models underlying its projections and the utility of its output to resource analysts and policymakers. Details about the various input assumptions used in TAMM are described in the 1989 assessment (Haynes 1990), the 1993 assessment (Haynes et al. 1995), and model features in Adams and Haynes (1996). ...
... The model also includes demand functions for all end products, with separate demand functions for U.S. domestic demand, Canadian domestic demand, and demand for exports outside of the United States and Canada. The current NAPAP model is an extended and revised version of the original NAPAP model used in the 1993 assessment (Ince 1994, Haynes et al. 1995. Details of NAPAP model methods and results can be found in Ince (1994Ince ( , 1999 and Zhang et al. (1996). ...
... This is particularly evident in the use of simulation techniques to analyze alternative futures and management strategies to better inform land managers and the public. This approach, called scenario planning (Wack 1985), has been a part of RPA efforts since 1983 (USDA FS 1982, Haynes 1990, Haynes et al. 1995. These applications take a classical approach to sensitivity analysis, in which a limited number of key exogenous and endogenous elements were varied and key projection results were examined for differences. ...
5 Abstract: The United States has a century of experience with the development of models that describe markets for forest products and trends in resource conditions. In the last four decades, increasing rigor in policy debates has stimulated the development of models to support policy analysis. Increasingly, research has evolved (often relying on computer-based models) to increase understanding of consumer demands, producer behavior, landowner behavior, and conditions of the timber resource. Greater computational power available since the mid 1970s has allowed the evolution of bioeconomic models that combine economic and resource models. These are used in the United States to provide the basis for forecasting future resource and market trends and to inform policy analysis. These more complex models have also extended options for policy analysis using approaches such as scenario planning to help decision makers gauge uncertainty.
