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Flooding is a major environmental hazard in Poland with risks that are likely to increase in the future. Land use and land cover (LULC) have a strong influencing on flood risk. In the Polish Carpathians, the two main projected land use change processes are forest expansion and urbanization. These processes have a contradictory impact on flood risk,...
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Grade control structures (GCSs) serve as some of the most frequently used forms of river channel regulation in the Polish Carpathians. The main purpose of such structures is to reduce the gradient of the channel and strike a balance between erosion and deposition. Despite the widespread use of GCSs, not much is known about their functioning over th...
Citations
... Most studies on flood risk prediction describe rainfall, land use, elevation, distance from rivers, and drainage density as the most significant factors (Choubin et al., 2019;Khosravi et al., 2019;Tehrany et al., 2019;Kalantar et al., 2021;Aldiansyah & Wardani, 2023). Szwagrzyk et al. (2018) have shown a direct relationship between land use and flooding. Kendari City's land use scenario from the past to the future presents the same scenario as that occurring throughout Sulawesi, where land use in built-up areas increases in urban areas while vegetation continues to decrease rapidly (Yulianto et al., 2016). ...
Introduction
The predictions of current and future flood risk in the Kendari City Southeast Sulawesi Province, Indonesia.
Methods
In estimating this phenomenon, 51 flood and non-flood locations were identified and mapped. A total of 20 flood risk factors were selected to model flood risk using several machine learning techniques: classification and regression tree (CART), support vector machines (SVM), multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), and ensemble. In exploring the impact of climate change and land use changes in the future (2050) on future flood risk, the General Circulation Model (GCM) with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios by 2050 was adopted to understand the impact on 8 variables rainfall. In addition, the CA-Markov model was also applied to future land use in 2050. To validate it, Receiver Operating Characteristic-Area Under Curve (ROC-AUC) statistical analysis and other statistical analyses were carried out.
Result
The ensemble model shows the performance of the AUC value with the highest prediction (AUC = 0.99) and is followed by SVM (0.99), MDA (0.97), and then CART (0.96). It is estimated that areas with moderate to very high risk of flooding will increase as a result of changes in climate and land use by 2050. As a result of these changes, areas classified as having moderate to very high-risk increase from the four models. The proportion of risk zone areas from the current distribution to 2050 in the RCP 2.6 scenario changes in the ensemble model. Very low = + 36.76%, Low=-17.14%, Moderate=-14.53%, High=-2.56%, and Very high=-2.53%. However, this change becomes more significant in the RCP 8.5 scenario from the current percentages: Very low=-0.001%, Low=-12.78%, Moderate = + 2.14%, High = + 6.12%, and Very high = + 4.52%. The results of this research can help stakeholders in disaster mitigation efforts.
... It was shown that the dynamics of land use changes (urbanization) have a strong impact on the 67 number of floods (Szeląg et al., 2021). Conclusively, Szwagrzyk et al. (2018) showed the impact of projected 68 land use changes on flood risk in the southern polish mountain range and concluded that urban areas are 69 expected to increase in existing flood-prone zones. Therefore, a substantial increase in estimated 70 economic losses due to potential flooding can be expected. ...
Fluvial floods are one of the most severe natural hazards. Changes in flood behaviour result from an interplay of climatic and human factors. Urbanization, with increasing land imperviousness, is the most critical human factor. This study investigates the effect of urbanization vs climate drivers on river floods in Poland, using the paired catchment approach. We used daily river flow data from 1975 to 2020 for four selected urban catchments and their non-urban counterparts as well as extreme precipitation, soil moisture, and snowmelt data generated from the process-based SWAT model. Changes in impervious areas were assessed using two state-of-the-art Copernicus products, revealing a consistent upward trend in imperviousness across all selected urban catchments. We employed a range of statistical methods: the Pettitt test, the Mann Kendall (MK) multitemporal test, the Poisson regression test, multi-temporal correlation analysis and multiple linear regression to assess changes in the magnitude and frequency of floods and flood drivers. The MK test results showed a contrasting behaviour between urban (increases) and non-urban (no change) catchments for three of four analysed catchment pairs. Flood frequency increased significantly in only one urban catchment. Multiple regression analysis revealed complex that non-urban catchments consistently exhibited stronger relationships between floods and climate drivers than the urban ones, although the results of residual analysis were not statistically significant. In summary, the evidence for the impact of urbanization on floods was found to be moderate. The results emphasize the importance of considering both hydrometeorological and human-induced factors when assessing river flood dynamics in Poland.
... A variety of studies have dealt with the topic of urbanization effect on floods in Poland (Pińskwar et al. 2023;Szeląg et al. 2021;Szwagrzyk et al. 2018). Pińskwar et al. (2023) specifically investigated the effectiveness of the State Fire Service interventions in the Wielkopolska region, west of Warsaw, and found that this area is particularly vulnerable to flash floods during extreme precipitation events. ...
... The study demonstrated that the dynamics of land use changes (urbanization) have a strong impact on the number of floods (Szeląg et al. 2021). Conclusively, Szwagrzyk et al. (2018) showed the impact of projected land use changes on flood risk in the southern Polish mountain range and concluded that urban areas are expected to increase in existing floodprone zones. Therefore, a substantial increase in estimated economic losses due to potential flooding can be expected. ...
Fluvial floods are a severe hazard resulting from the interplay of climatic and anthropogenic factors. The most critical anthropogenic factor is urbanization, which increases land imperviousness. This study uses the paired catchment approach to investigate the effect of urbanization vs. climate drivers on river floods in Poland. Long-term daily river flow data until 2020 was used for four selected urban catchments and their non-urban counterparts, along with extreme precipitation, soil moisture excess, and snowmelt data generated from the process-based Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Changes in impervious areas were assessed using two state-of-the-art Copernicus products, revealing a consistent upward trend in imperviousness across all selected urban catchments. A range of statistical methods were employed to assess changes in the magnitude and frequency of floods and flood drivers, including the Pettitt test, the Mann Kendall (MK) multitemporal test, the Poisson regression test, multi-temporal correlation analysis and multiple linear regression. The MK test results showed a contrasting behaviour between urban (increases) and non-urban (no change) catchments for three of the four analysed catchment pairs. Flood frequency increased significantly in only one urban catchment. Multiple regression analysis revealed that non-urban catchments consistently exhibited stronger relationships between floods and climate drivers than the urban ones, although the results of residual analysis were not statistically significant. In summary, the evidence for the impact of urbanization on floods was found to be moderate. The study highlights the significance of evaluating both climatic and anthropogenic factors when analysing river flood dynamics in Poland.
... This will directly impact the water production capacity of the surface, which will affect the hydrological cycle in the watershed and the flood characteristics (Abbo et al. 2003;Erena and Worku 2019;Zare et al. 2016). Szwagrzyk et al. (2018) predicted that, depending on the scenario, the peak flow of the Ropa River would either decline owing to forest expansion or remain unchanged, indicating that land use change has a minimal effect on the hydrology of mountain watersheds. Pal et al. (2022) thought that under the influence of future climate and land changes, the increase in precipitation and the conversion of natural vegetation to agricultural land and construction land would expand the area impacted by severe flooding. ...
In recent years, human activities have caused significant changes in the underlying surface and affected the processes of rainstorms and floods. It is of great practical significance for water resources management to understand the mechanism of the rainstorm and flood process under the changing conditions of land use and cover change (LUCC) and grasp the change law of the rainstorm and flood. Given this, this study aims to take the flood simulation of the Kuye River basin in the Loess Plateau as an example, selecting the measured flood data for the last 60 years (1960–2018) for statistical analysis and then illustrating the effect of the LUCC on the storm flooding using the distributed time varying gain hydrological model (DTVGM). The primary outcomes are as follows: (1) The statistical results show that the four rainstorm indicators of the annual maximum one-hour precipitation, the annual maximum precipitation, the number of days with ≥ 25 mm precipitation, and the number of days with ≥ 50 mm precipitation have no apparent increasing trend during the study period. (2) During the study period, the most significant annual flood peak discharge and the frequency of heavy and moderate floods in the basin decreased significantly (p < 0.01). (3) By constructing the DTVGM model, it was found that the flood flow showed a significant reduction during the simulation period, with an attenuation rate of about 40%, subject to changes in the underlying surface conditions. Discussing the impacts of changes in the LUCC on the Kuye River basin flood processes will enable better formulation of water resources management policies. This integrated research methodology is expected to serve as a reference for other river basins and help build a more sustainable water resource management system for rational utilization and adequate protection of water resources.
... Notably, a comprehensive global analysis conducted from 1948 to 2004 examined simulated streamflow, revealing a significant decline in discharge in approximately one-third of the top 200 rivers across the globe (Sterling et al. 2013). Furthermore, it is projected that by 2025, LULCC will impact numerous river basins and countries, potentially leading to a failure in meeting up to 30% of irrigation demands (Szwagrzyk et al. 2018). The impact of LULCC on hydrology has been extensively documented, not only on physical hydrological processes but also on hydro chemical processes and water quality. ...
The study of Land use/land cover change (LULCC) is crucial to understanding its impact on hydrological processes and water resource availability. This research focuses on assessing the effects of LULCC on the hydrology of the Fafan catchment in Eastern Ethiopia from 1990 to 2021. Landsat images from 1990 and 2021 were analyzed using the Random Forest (RF) and Post-Classification (PC) methods. The HBV (Hydrological Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) light model was employed for hydrological modeling. The findings revealed significant changes in LULC between 1990 and 2021. Forest cover decreased by 65%, while grassland and shrubland decreased by 4.6% and 69%, respectively. Conversely, cropland, settlement, and barren land increased by 385%, 77%, and 43%, respectively. In simpler terms, vegetation zone one (forest, grassland, and shrubland) decreased by 51%, while vegetation zone two (cropland and settlement) and vegetation zone three (barren land) increased by 385%, and 62%, respectively during the same period. The results from the HBV light model indicated significant changes in the hydrological patterns of the catchment. Surface runoff during the annual and kiremt (main rainy) season increased by 17%, and 25%, respectively in 2021 compared to 1990. However, the dry (Bega) season showed a 15%, reduction. Seasonal soil moisture decreased by 32% during the Belg (short rainy) season but increased by 14%, during the summer season. There was no significant difference on an annual time scale during the same period. Additionally, potential evapotranspiration (PET) showed a slight increase on all time scales in 2021 compared to 1990. This implies that the LULCC in the last thirty years have been impacting the hydrology of the catchment, thereby requiring restoration and rehabilitation initiatives.
... However, while simulating future LULC is subject to uncertainty, our study provides a comprehensive analysis of LULC changes. Due to a lack of spatial data, our study was unable to investigate several potential socioeconomic factors, including variables like agricultural productivity, land-use policies, changes in transportation infrastructure, and individual preferences [15,72,73]. In addition, more sophisticated models can be developed in the future to simulate urban growth in different areas of the study region. ...
In the context of urbanization, frequent flood event have become the most common natural disasters, posing a significant challenge to human society. Considering the effects of urbanization on flood risk is critical for flood risk reduction and reasonable land planning strategies at the city scale. This study proposes an integrated approach based on remote sensing data using CA, Markov, and simplified hydrodynamic (FloodMap) models to accurately and effectively assess flood risk under urbanization. Taking Chongqing City as a case study, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial variations in land use/land cover (LULC) in 2010, 2015, and 2018 and predicts the LULC for 2030, based on historic trends. Flood risk is assessed by combining the hazard, exposure, and modified vulnerability. The results suggest that the area of built-up land will increase significantly from 19.56% in 2018 to 25.21% in 2030. From 2010 to 2030, the area of medium and high inundation depths will increase by 10 and 16 times, respectively. Flood damage varies remarkably according to the LULC and return period. The expected annual damage (EAD) has been estimated to increase from USD 68 million in 2010 to USD 200 million in 2030. Flood risk is proportional to population and is significantly inversely proportional to socioeconomic level. The approach used here can provide a comprehensive understanding of flood risk and is significant for land-use policymaking and the management of flood control facilities.
... Instead, it combines the near-surface and overland flow and models it as a direct runoff [37]. As LU changed, Szwagrzyk et al., [38] analyzed that LU changes impact flood risk in the Ropa river basin, a 1000 km 2 area in Poland. Based on the SCS-CN method and application of the HEC-HMS model, they established different scenarios for future LU on flood risk and concluded that flood risk would increase. ...
Hydrological models significantly estimate water movements and their distribution at local and catchment sizes. They have been used to simulate the relative between rainfall and runoff. They enhance city planners and hydrology communities to investigate the complex relationship between precipitation and runoff in catchments and city sizes. Water movement is a vital matter, especially on the ground. This study reviews several hydrological modeling studies in different environments, including spatial analysis in the Watershed Modeling System (WMS). It seeks to consider only the most critical hydrology and hydraulic modeling to investigate water in a watershed. Furthermore, this review gives a fundamental understanding of the empirical hydrology methods used to calculate runoff and a brief for 2D denominational. This review found that hydrology modeling is based on a) loss methods, b) direct runoff, and c) 2 Dimensional. This review concluded that the popular hydrology models applied in different environments are the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hedrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Also, Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) sites are at the top of the hydraulic water depth (1D) and water distributed (2D) models to assess flood plans. Hydrological models became a postnatal application to understand flood risk in both gauged and ungauged catchments.
... In case of rural areas energy transmission costs are higher than in case of urban areas which makes convention and centralized energy systems less effective. Specific transition zone between these two forms is a suburban area [16,17] where RES could also constitute effective solution due to rapid urbanization process [18,19]. Therefore, more efficient solution in that case could be to implement energy clusters and energy cooperatives covering independent or semi-independent dispersed installations producing energy from biomass, biogas, wind, solar radiation, and where geologically rational also geothermal sources. ...
Climate change forces policy-makers to undertake actions to reduce human impact on socio-environmental system. One of the directions is to shift into low-carbon economy, also by increasing the role of renewable energy sources (RES) in energy sector. Therefore, there is a need to support local stakeholders with a knowledge-based approaches in order to implement RES more effectively. There are some systems assessing natural potential for RES installations, however, legal regulations are not always making it possible everywhere. The aim of this research is to expand existing functions of the decision support system for hybrid RES by the feasibility assessment of selected locations due to legal regulations. The developed tool was applied and presented on the case of a selected Polish region. The RES potential is assessed based on the universal databases (Global Wind Atlas, Global Solar Atlas, CORINE Land Cover), however, it was customized to local legal regulations, which allows the solution to be more practical and helpful for implementation in a low-carbon economy. Promotion of decision support systems for RES planning may constitute effective solution to reach goals set in the European Green Deal.
... Flooding is the focus of many scientific studies globally, with some experts attributing it to extreme weather and climate change (Skou gaard Kaspersen et al., 2017;Szydłowski, 2017, 2018b;Mustafa et al., 2019;Xiong et al., 2019;Ziernicka-Wojtaszek and Kopcińska, 2020). Other scholars believe it is a consequence of population growth and rapid urban development (Apollonio et al., 2016;Szwagrzyk et al., 2018;Mustafa and Szydłowski, 2020). In reality, both perspectives are valid, but the extent of their impact remains a subject of debate. ...
Aim of the study: The city of Gdańsk faces changing climatic conditions that result in a higher frequency of extreme weather events. In response to the increasingly frequent appearance of flash floods, scientific research was carried out on changes in the probability of the occurrence of maximum daily precipitation in Gdańsk. The purpose of this paper is to show the role of hydrological research (science), decisions of local authorities and the engagement of residents in the process of adapting Gdańsk to climate change. Material and methods: The hydrological analysis was carried out using rainfall observations from the Gdańsk Rębiechowo station (1974-2021). Log-normal distribution was used as a statistical model for the precipitation probability distribution. To show the role of the city authorities’ decisions, the methodology developed and used by Gdańsk Water company for rainwater management was presented. To emphasize the importance of city residents in climate adaptation process, the methods adopted by city authorities to involve citizens in the advisory process are discussed, namely Civic Panels and the Gdańsk Climate Change Forum. Results and conclusions: The probability distributions of maximum precipitation for different periods were developed, showing a substantial increase of precipitation with a probability of p=1%. Consequently, changes were introduced in the rainwater management practices by the company Gdańsk Water. Being aware of rising flood hazard, Gdańsk City Hall has embraced a plan for adapting the city to climatic changes by 2030. The local authorities decided to involve citizens in the decision-making process. To this end, discussion panels were organized, and the Gdańsk Climate Change Forum was initiated.
... One further notable study, which also used a comprehensive scenario approach, includes projections for biophysical and socio-economic boundary conditions as climatic conditions, population density or farm sizes. Demand-driven scenarios of urbanization are simulated in business as usual, liberalization and self-sufficiency futures using the Dyna-CLUE model (108). While societal processes and political decisions are not in the focus of analyzed studies, the investigation of adaptation strategies (Criterion 8) is much more researched with 26.0 % of the 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 A c c e p t e d M a n u s c r i p t studies (14n). ...
Urban climate and disaster risks are set to rise, driven by the interaction of two global megatrends: urbanization and climate change. A detailed understanding of whether, where and how cities are growing within or into hazard-prone areas is an urgent prerequisite for assessing future risk trajectories, risk-informed planning, and adaptation decisions. However, this analysis has been mostly neglected to date, as most climate change and disaster risk research has focused on the assessment of future hazard trends but less on the assessment of how socio-economic changes affect future hazard exposure. Urban growth and expansion modelling provide a powerful tool, given that urban growth is a major driver of future disaster risk in cities. The paper reviews the achievements lately made in urban growth and exposure modelling and assesses how they can be applied in the context of future-oriented urban risk assessment and the planning of adaptation measures. It also analyses which methodological challenges persist in urban growth and exposure modelling and how they might be overcome. These points pertain particularly to the need to consider and integrate (1) urban morphology patterns and potential linkages to exposure as well as vulnerability, (2) long-term time horizons to consider long-term developments, (3) feedbacks between urbanization trajectories and hazard trends, (4) the integration of future urban growth drivers and adaptation responses, (5) feedbacks between adaptation and urbanization, and (6) scenarios, which are developed within a commonly defined scenario framework.
