Table 2 - uploaded by Johannes Reichl
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-1. Regression coefficients of non-households' economic losses Daily added value Daily effort in advance
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This paper analyses different assessment techniques used for power outage costs evaluation. Socio-economic analyses to quantify the effects of power cuts are essential for energy policy and to provide a rationale for investments in electricity supply security enhancing measures.
Different analytical approaches are presented. An application of these...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... total preparatory effort wasted (GVV) has been modeled in a similar way. In Table 2-1 the regression coefficients are presented multiplied by 100 so that the respective coefficients can be interpreted as a percentage change. Based on this regression the economic losses caused by an outage on a workday between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m., say, are 13% greater (in relation to the respective daily value added) than outside regular working hours. ...
Context 2
... the face-to-face interview took 28.5 minutes on average, answering the online questionnaire an average of 27 minutes. Table 2- 2 provides a descriptive analysis of the results from the household survey. For comparison the average figures for the whole of Austria are also provided. ...
Context 3
... the event of a 12-hour outage a mean WTP of € 9.9 was detected; to avoid a 4-hour power cut households were willing to pay € 3.8 on average, and WTP to avoid a 1-hour power cuts was assessed at € 1.4 on average. Table 2-3 shows the coefficients of the variables which influence this WTP. The coefficients in this multiplicative model are to be interpreted as follows: WTP with respect to an outage of whatever duration increases by the value of the coefficient for the corresponding variable as that variable increases. ...
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... However, this approach is less practical, since most of the time the outage occurs due to natural disasters, so post-event circumstances are difficult, and it is hard to approach and collect feedback from the people affected. Another popular and widely used approach for financial loss assessment is based on how much money the user is willing to pay (WTP) for an uninterrupted supply of electricity [17]. This is a subjective assessment based on individual's way of thinking and the added value they associate with an uninterrupted supply of electricity. ...
The electrical power infrastructure of modern world is advanced, efficient and robust; yet the power outages occur. In addition to affecting millions of people around the world, the outage events cost billions of dollars to the global economy. In this paper, the financial risk associated with power outage events specifically the revenue loss bared by the electricity supplying companies is estimated for the United States. Various factors, responsible for power outages, are considered in order to present an exploratory data analysis at the U.S. level overall, followed by for the top ten affected states accumulating over 85% of the total financial damage. The monetary loss is computed using historic observational data of electricity usage patterns and the tariff offered by the energy suppliers. The study is supplemented with reliable and publicly available records including electricity usage patterns, the consumer category distribution, climatological annotations, population density, socio-economic indicators and the land area. The machine learning techniques are used to predict the revenue loss for the future outage events, as well as characterize the key parameters for efficient prediction and their partial dependence. The results show that the revenue loss is a function of several parameters including residential sales, percentage of industrial customer, time-period of the year, and the economic indicators. This study may help energy suppliers taking risk-informed decisions while developing revenue generation strategies as well as identifying safer investment avenues for long term pay backs.
... Supply interruptions generate problems such as revenue loss for the distributors, from the interruption to the complete reestablishment. Unscheduled shutdowns can cause financial losses to consumers (especially industrial, commercial, and public authorities) due to non-productivity or sales of products/services or even considerable losses of raw materials and production batches [8]. In addition, full load interruptions/resets generate transitory effects (electrical surges) that damage equipment and devices of consumers and the distributor itself. ...
The Association of the Coal Industry of Santa Catarina (SATC), together with the State Electric Energy Company (CEEE/Equatorial) of the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS), seeks solutions to reduce conflicts between vegetation and electrical networks. This study was carried out having as an area for pilot the city of Porto Alegre, RS, where the distributor is responsible for the supply of electricity. The objective of this proposal was to define locations for carrying out a vegetation inventory through a predictive model. From satellite images, the existing vegetation in the distribution network was digitally extracted and, from this, five prioritization factors were associated via Hierarchical Process Analysis (HPA), resulting in an equation with consistency ratio where each factor is given a specific weight, resulting in a priority map. The final model is explained by 36% by the number of power outages, 21.5% by vegetation close to the grid, 21% by the affected population, 16.9% by the type of consumer, and 4.6% by the area from the neighborhood. This combination of factors resulted in ‘red zones’ in the pilot area, of which 100 points were chosen for carrying out a forest inventory, with an expected sampling significance of at least 97%. This makes it possible to develop a more assertive and spatially oriented forest inventory, and this model can be replicated in different urban centers.
... The blackout simulator tough does not provide information on "transbou nda ry" effec ts o f a b lac kou t o n neighbouring countries; neither it is able to assess the avoided damage in case of an investment is a dd ed to the system to improve the security of supply. On the other side, the simulator can be used to replicate p as ts (Reichl, 2013a) (Reichl, Johannes, Michael Schmidthaler, and Friedrich Schneider, 2013b), (Schmidthaler M. J., 2014) and (Schmidthaler M. a., 2016) as well as future electricity crises 32 . ...
This study addresses the regional dimension of electricity crises management in the European Union and elaborates on the national and regional rules and procedures that are relevant for the definition of target measures and regional cooperation agreements. In this context, we identify the essential elements for the prevention, preparation for and management of a crisis as a practical guide for the preparation of the risk preparedness plan, with the objective to extend and develop the European Commission’s Recommendations (EU) 2020/1775 (European Commission, 2020b). This analysis is based on a number of regulatory documents - like the guideline on electricity transmission system operation and the network code on emergency and restoration - and other studies on the most frequent causes of outages, the associated effective remedial actions, the best practices in crisis management, and the economic impacts of electricity crises.
... We only take the outage duration into account for performance measurement intending to generalize the results to a wider energy system. The data from prior power outage cost or lost value studies were gathered and combined in this research to understand this relationship (Balducci et al. 2002;Hashemi et al. 2018;Küfeoğlu and Lehtonen 2015;Reichl et al. 2013). Because the datasets were gathered differently (e.g., 1/3-1-4 h outage periods versus 1-4-8-24 h outage periods or $ per interruption versus $/KWh), a relative cost and linear interpolations are used to standardize and convert them. ...
Past research studies have acknowledged the role of resilience in policies and decisions to address disruptive events and proposed frameworks to measure it. The scope and diversity of these unwanted events highlight the need to evaluate the resilience of a system to a specific disruptive circumstance. The broad scope and generic form of the previous studies limit their usefulness as a practical tool for analyzing the factors affecting system performance. To overcome this problem, we are only focusing on the behavior of systems that produce, distribute, and deliver food, energy, and water (FEW) during and after the occurrence of a sudden shortage of labor. Resilience metrics are first developed to measure the resilience of the FEW systems. Next, the performance levels of the FEW systems are clearly defined based on the FEW demands that are not served. Third, the labor intensity of FEW productions is calculated to assess the impact of a sudden labor shortage. This study recognizes the complex interdependencies among the FEW systems and, thus, aims to examine their resilience as a single system. Last, the labor shortage in the USA caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is chosen as a use case to measure the system performance and role of adjustments on the FEW systems. The results show that a labor shortage can significantly impact the FEW system performance, possibly due to the high energy dependency of food and water systems and the high cost of storing energy. Also, the current food system has shown more resilience to a sudden labor shortage compared to the energy and water systems because of the availability of various food alternatives to meet the demand for each food category.
... According to the World Bank, an estimated 41% of Nigerian businesses self-generate power to augment the national grid supply (Nigeria Power Baseline Report, 2015). The associated costs of power outages may be direct, indirect or resulting long-term costs of macroeconomic relevance (Reichl, Schmidthaler, & Schneider, 2013). Direct costs relates to acquisition, fuelling, repair and maintenance of generators. ...
Purpose: The age-long problematic electricity situation and attendant loss of productive man-hour is forcing the resurgent proliferation of literature on the relationship between blackouts and productivity in developing countries. This study expands the scope of existing literature by pricing the cost of electricity blackout on productivity.
Approach/Methodology/Design: The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) that was developed by Phillips and Hansen (1990) was used to estimate the existing relationship. Data were sourced from the World Development Indicators, Energy Information Administration (EIA) website, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics Productivity report as well as National Electricity Regulation Commission (NERC) covering 1996-2018.
Findings: Findings emanating from the study showed that electricity blackout has negative impact on productivity. The coefficient indicates that a one percent increase in electricity blackout will leads to a 104 percent decrease in productivity. It was equally revealed that
electricity price has negative impact on productivity. Electricity generation and population have positive impact on productivity while corruption increases the influence of electricity blackout on productivity by approximately 30 percent. Practical
Implication: The study showed that incessant electricity blackout impeded productivity which was further compounded corrupt practices in this critical sector of the economy.
The paper recommends a business-friendly environment with an appropriate incentive structure that will stimulate the required development in the power sector for improved productivity.
... The work is limited where the impact of outage event is assessed due to all possible reasons to trigger the outage event at the same time, and moreover exclusively targeted for a specific region. The economic risk assessment has been investigated based on the public feedback in terms of money they are willing to pay (WTP) for uninterrupted power supply [40][41]. In such studies, the economic loss has been estimated based on the amount which the public is ready to pay (WTP) for continuous power supply. ...
The electric power systems are becoming smart as well as complex with every passing year, especially in response to the changing environmental conditions. Resilience of power generation and transmission infrastructure is important to avoid power outages, ensure robust service, and to achieve sustained economic benefits. In this study, we employ a two-stage model to estimate the power outage in terms of its intensity as well as the duration. We identify the top three potentially critical states of United States of America, not merely based on duration of the power outage, but by also incorporating outage related revenue loss. In the proposed model, the first stage classifies the intensity of the outage event while the second stage predicts the duration of the outage itself. Moreover, the key predictors are characterized and their association with outage duration is illustrated. We use a comprehensive and publicly available dataset, which provides the information related to historical power outage events, such as electricity usage patterns, climatological annotations, socioeconomic indicators, and land-use data. Our rigorous analysis and results suggest that the power outage interval is the function of several parameters, such as climatological condition, economic indicators as well as the time of the year. The proposed study can help the regulatory authorities taking appropriate decisions for long term economic paybacks. It can also help disaster management authorities to take risk-informed resilient decisions for system safety.
... This environment is characterized by factors such as pollution, weather and climatic phenomena, animals, environmental conditions and human activity [1][2][3]. These factors can be the root causes of faults in the systems, leading to outages Critical value in the chi-square test that have a variety of adverse socio-economic impacts on society [4][5][6][7][8]. The frequency of outages is a key factor in the total economic cost of outages because this cost increases with the number of outages [5,9]. ...
In this paper, the authors present a novel approach to the study of the frequency of forced outages in various operating units, or regions of Eskom, using statistical techniques. The forced outage data are summarized in frequencies and rates of forced outages for various levels, providing insight into variations among the levels of variables, and helping to identify levels that could be targeted in forced outage reduction strategies. The chi-squared test was performed to identify variables that had associations with the operating units (OUs), isolating variables that could be focused on to reduce frequencies in OUs. Where dependence was determined, the degree of association was calculated, enabling the ranking of the dependence with OUs in terms of which ones, if targeted, will have the highest impact on the frequency of forced outages in OUs. The paper contributes to the discourse on outages of equipment and provides insight into historical forced outage data. Furthermore, the paper provides a practical approach to studying the frequency of forced outages in regions of a utility. Finally, the insight gained from the study can enhance decision making related to the asset and performance management of power system equipment in general, and subtransmission transformers in particular.
... Webo shi et.al [17] proposed a work that centers around building up of online energy management methodology for real-time operation of MG. The authors in the references [18][19][20][21] portrait the importance of PSO, MOPSO and modified PSO to be used for optimization algorithm. A survey on calculation of macroeconomic impacts from the economic expenses and customer individual feelings on account of power outages was carried out in [22] . ...
In today’s era of socioeconomic and environmental concerns, conventional energy sources are incapable of meeting increasing energy demands which leads to the significance of Microgrid (MG) systems incorporating renewable energy sources. An ideally designed microgrid capable of operating in standalone and grid connected mode is considered with photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, fuel cell, battery and Microturbines (MT) as sources. The two noteworthy disadvantages of microgrid are very expensive power supply and intermittency of power generation. Besides ensuring a steady supply, the power delivered should be of moderate cost. So, this work focuses on reducing the cost associated with its operation and emission by simultaneously analyzing the impact of uncertainty. The uncertainties can be caused due to different DGs present in MG and the load varations. The variations of uncertainty are included as outage cost. The MG operating under islanded and grid connected modes are analyzed for different scenarios to obtain optimal value of customer outage cost and operating cost. So a heuristic optimization technique which can handle the multi-objective problem is considered. The optimal solution for different operational scenarios of grid connected and islanded mode are obtained using Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) algorithm.
... Previous studies have investigated the value of electricity supply security in the EU, estimating the value of supply security for individual EU nations [4][5][6][7] . Results from these analyses suggest that the welfare losses from blackouts vary on the basis of the duration of the outage, and the season and country in which the outage takes place, with losses being in the range of € 15-25 per kWh not supplied 4,5,7,8 . ...
Predicted changes in temperature and other weather events may damage the electricity grid and cause power outages. Understanding the costs of power outages and how these costs change over time with global warming can inform outage-mitigation-investment decisions. Here we show that across 19 EU nations the value of uninterrupted electricity supply is strongly related to local temperatures, and will increase as the climate warms. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of data from a choice experiment and respondent-specific temperature measures reveals estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid an hour of power outage between € 0.32 and € 1.86 per household. WTP varies on the basis of season and is heterogeneous between European nations. Winter outages currently cause larger per household welfare losses than summer outages per hour of outage. However, this dynamic will begin to shift under plausible future climates, with summer outages becoming substantially more costly and winter outages becoming slightly less costly on a per-household, per-hour basis.
... Previous studies have investigated the value of electricity supply security in the EU, but to date none have considered the effect that temperatures have on this valuation. Some of these studies have estimated the value of supply security for individual EU nations [55,64,63,46]. Results from these analyses suggest that the value of supply security to residential consumers varies based on the duration of the outage, season and day of the week on which the outage takes place [64,46]. ...
This dissertation consists of three separate research papers. Each paper uses a different econometric technique to analyze a problem relating to the social aspects of climate change. The first paper investigates a potential adaptive strategy to counteract warming stream waters through stream intervention projects. Using novel non-parametric matching estimation techniques it is shown that these intervention projects have positive effects on homeowners that are near to the stream but downstream of the project site. The second
paper uses Bayesian econometric techniques to analyze survey data regarding the welfare losses experienced as a result of power outages across Europe. This paper shows how the severity and spatial distribution of these welfare losses will change as the climate warms, which enables the current electricity grid expansion taking place in Europe to account for these effects of climate change. The third paper uses Classical econometric techniques to estimate the effect of temperature on visitor recreation choices around Lake Tahoe. It is then shown that under climate scenarios the demand for beach and water access at Lake
Tahoe will greatly increase, which suggests that lake managers begin to plan regulations and build infrastructure to account for this demand increase.
