Questions related to Tropical Cyclones
The water temperature in summer is over 30 degrees. This is favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone. From autumn to spring, the water temperature is higher than the air temperature. This is favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone. The type of atmospheric circulation is anticyclonic. This is favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone. The width of the Red Sea is more than 300 km and it is more than the diameter of the convective cell that transforms into a vortex. The salinity of the water in the Red Sea and in the Persian Gulf is much higher than usual. Maybe this is the problem? It is known that salt water evaporates worse than fresh water.
The Brazilian region has a warm current and for this reason excellent conditions for the formation of tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones do not form in this region. There are only two cases of cyclone formation. I have attached one of them. There is a phrase: "it never happened and now it happened again." Post the map of the water temperature in the place of its formation (attached the map). There was cold water at the place where the cyclone formed, but it formed.
At present, we experiencing a number of intense tropical cyclone/low-pressure events over the Bay of Bengal. To uncover this reason, a hypothesis is raised that while the plastic gets in contact with sunlight, wave, and wind stress, it gets disintegrates and floats over the marine environment in a larger area resulting limited depth of penetration of solar energy in the water column. As plastic is an insulator therefore it creates an asymmetry in air-sea interaction leading to surface water accumulating higher temperature compared to subsurface temperature. Therefore, the ocean loses its temperature-bearing capacity and transfers its energy to the atmosphere leading to the intense formation of tropical cyclones in recent decades.
Please correct me if the hypothesis signifies different ?
1. It is known that a tropical cyclone receives energy from the condensation of water, which is in the air in the form of gas (https://naukarus.com/globalnyy-tropicheskiy-tsiklogenez-i-27-sutochnye-variatsii-solnechnoy-aktivnosti).
2. Some scientists write that the release of hydrogen from the lithosphere (Syvorotkin V.L. "Hydrogen Degassing of the Earth: Natural Disasters and the Biosphere." Man and the Geosphere. Ed. I.V. Florinsky. New York: Nova Science Publisher, Inc., 2010, pp. 307–347) leads to an exothermic reaction of its oxidation. After that, the water formed as a result of this chemical reaction condenses and additional heat is released. In this case, a binary effect occurs.
3. The results of our research indicate that the release of methane from the lithosphere ) leads to an exothermic reaction of its oxidation. After that, the water formed as a result of this chemical reaction condenses and additional heat is released. In this case, a binary effect also occurs.
4. We have formulated the fourth source of energy. When water vapor condenses, the number of gas molecules in the air becomes smaller. The volume of water in the form of a liquid is 800 times less than the volume of water in the form of a gas. There is a vacuumization and a decrease in atmospheric pressure. In this case, the process of air convection is enhanced. This leads to an increase in the energy of condensation of water vapor.
5. We have formulated the fifth source of energy. As a result of the processes taking place in the Earth's mantle, local gravity anomalies are recorded. these anomalies have a short life cycle (several days). This is a scientifically documented fact. A change in free fall acceleration results in vertical air movement. Above the gravity anomaly with a negative sign, the air rises. According to calculations, the air rise velocity exceeds 2 m/s. Convection is getting stronger. The release of water vapor condensation energy into the atmosphere increases.
This list is not finished, I think.
On the slide is the famous equatorial cyclone "Boffa". Map from the site "Jaxa".
Additional information in the explanations to my questions: 1. Why do cyclones form at the equator, where is there no Coriolis force? What's wrong with the theory? 2. Why do cyclones with a diameter of several thousand km form in the tropical zone? These are not tropical cyclones (there is no "eye of the storm"). 3. It is believed that tropical cyclones are local eddies that form without a system. I think this is a mistake.
When a cyclone reaches land, it loses the energy of water vapor condensation, which is maximum over the sea. In a tropical cyclone, the energy of condensation comes in impulses. The night impulse is related to the diurnal variation of temperature. The daytime and nighttime surge of condensation is related to gravity (solar tide). For more details, see the dissertation of my graduate student Vadim Doli. Thus, the destruction of a tropical cyclone on land depends on the phase of diurnal and semidiurnal cycles of water vapor condensation. See my question "Why was Hurricane Katrina a disaster in 2005, but Hurricane Rita was not? They had the same energy." Maybe there is another explanation?
The image was taken from the official UK meteorological website.Quote from our monograph: "It was also mistakenly believed that tropical cyclones form over water, the temperature of which in a layer with a thickness of at least 50 m is at least 26.5°. It is also mistakenly believed that tropical cyclones occur only in the tropical zone The satellite image shows a cyclone with the "eye of the storm" over the Black Sea on March 21, 2002 (in the cold season). Satellite image of a tropical cyclone over the Black Sea in the question titled "A satellite image shows a tropical cyclone at a latitude of 45 degrees in winter. Has this destroyed the theory of tropical cyclogenesis?"
In the fall of 2005, the Amazon River suddenly dried up (photo attached). At the same time, a little to the north, in the Caribbean, the number of tropical cyclones increased abnormally (the graph is attached). In addition, the formation of tropical cyclones continued until January 2006, see cyclones Delta and Zeta (map attached). It happened in one geographic region. I think these anomalies may have a common cause. I analyzed the gravitational field, which can form an anomaly of high atmospheric pressure in the region. Maybe there are other ideas? In 2010, the drought in the Amazon was not accompanied by an anomaly of tropical cyclogenesis.
I have two datasets. One with 9 past cyclones with their damage on the forest, wind speed, distance from the study site, recovery area. Another dataset with future sea-level rise (SLR) projections and potential loss area due to SLR.
- By using data from both disturbance events datasets (loss area, recovery area, wind speed, predicted loss area from SLR) can I create any kinds of disturbance risk/vulnerability/disturbance index/ hazard indicator map of the study area?
- What kinds of statistical analysis can I include in my study with these limited data sets which will help me to show some sort of relationship of "Loss Area" with other variables?
I am sorting cyclones (35 years 1985-2019) that were intensified or dissipated rapidly.
While doing this I need a procedure to adopt for the classification of intensification or dissipation.
Would you kindly guide me in this regard, please
I am currently working on coastal water quality assessment. I need the impacts of SST on tropical cyclone formation and its related processes.
I would like to know the method of calculation. I mean which attribute(variable) needed from the data and how to calculate. I knew about the trends from the article linked below.
In the paper:
Hoque, M.A.A., Pradhan, B., Ahmed, N. and Roy, S., 2019. Tropical cyclone risk assessment using geospatial techniques for the eastern coastal region of Bangladesh. Science of the Total Environment, 692, pp.10-22.
How is the rainfall intensity calculated using daily precipitation data from 1950 to 2018?
I am trying to generate the track of a tropical cyclone using WRF. Initially I tried with basic WRF configuration with em_real compilation but didn't find any script to track down the cyclone path as em_real is not generating any vortex tracking data. So, I recompiled WRF with vortex follwoing & em_tropical_cyclone configuration. But the problem is, still my model isn't generating any ATCF data (or any vortex tracking data) & to be true I am now confused whether I am on the right track to generate those data. At present I am not focusing on forecast accuracy / track variations (will work on physics options later, currently focusing on generating the track data only). I am quite new in using WRF & it will be a great help if anyone can give me some insight on this issue on how to do it.
>. My namelist.wps & namelist.input files are attached below.
I am trying to get an accumulated map for precipitation in Giovanni platform. If I use the accumulated map option I get results with an underestimate than the ones obtained by NASA for the same tropical cyclone and time frame.
Do I need to do the accumulation myself after downloading 30-minute cumulation time intervals and run the cummulation in R? My worry is that the data will be a lot and I am not very good at R.
I'm trying to find out the physics how a fast and slow (separately) moving Hurricane/Tropical Cyclone/Typhoon influence storm surge generation. But so far I haven't found any detail explanation except some generalized statements.
I am working on simulating tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean by weather research and forecasting model (WRF). Firstly, I tried to study the impact of different microphysics schemes on the forecasting tropical cyclones. The cyclone track was far from the best-observed track as shown in the attached figure. Then, I did WRFDA (3DVAR) simulation for the same case to improve the result. WRFDA model estimated the cyclone track but didn't estimate the minimum sea level pressure as shown in the attached Figure. I think that the problem is in estimating the PSFC. Thus, I would like to ask if anyone has recommendations to improve the results.
I want to see the influence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Water Vapor Flux, and Convergence on tropical cyclones' precipitation totals.
I am studying the impact of micro-physics parameterization scheme on tropical cyclone track and intensity. I would like to ask if there is a way to estimate the cyclone track by GIS/QGIS.
I would like to know, if you have any other suggestion.
I want to plot the asymmetry distribution of rainfall during tropical cyclone landfall. Some researchers used Fourier Decomposition method. Is it possible to plot in NCL or Matlab or R or Origin? Any idea, suggestions, and sample code would be appreciate and great helpful for me.
I am looking for a single term that can be used to describe both "trends and patterns" of natural phenomenon such as natural hazards (storms, floods, rainfall, tropical cyclones etc.)
I have calculated potential intensity for a cyclone using Tang and Emanuel (2012) relation.but at the beginning of TC lifetime U_PI^2 is negative due to larger value of s_b (boundary layer entropy) comparing with s_*_SST(saturated value of entropy at SST). I used averaged values over 4*4 degree domain centered by TC eye at each time step. I used also reanalysis data.
I do appreciate if some one help me
I want to do literature review about how the surge height changes if there is high tide at the time of landfall. Also I am interested to know the respected inundation scenario.
Anything helpful would be appreciated.
Namely, is "Putting to rest WISHE-ful misconceptions ... " by Montgomery et. al., 2015, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, a final verdict?
When we found the non-zero helicity generation during TC formation in the tropical atmosphere (2010), our next step was about whether this might be favorable for the initiation of large-scale helical vortex-instability. Indeed, we found the instability by analyzing the kinetic energy of the primary (tangential) and secondary (transverse) circulation in our works (2011-2016). Though the conditions in your experiment are quite different from the atmospheric ones, I would try to analyze the kinetic energy too.
Conference Paper Helical Organization of Tropical Cyclones
I want to use ECHAM-HAM model to study aerosol impact on tropical cyclones. Can anyone please suggest me how to use ECHAM-HAMMOZ at high resolution or is there any other options(models) that work well for this study?
The Safir-Simpson hurricane scale is a classification method to identify the intensity of a tropical cyclone by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and meteorologist Bob (Robert) Simpson, but this method proved to be useless due to its failures to identify the two thirds of the top 156 deadliest hurricanes from 1851 to 1996. I found the overgeneralization problem caused this.
I developed a new classification method to deal with this problem, but many reviewers and editors told me that even though what you said is correct, we still insist on using SSHS, and your paper can't be published at least in the journals of USA due to common people accepting SSHS. I really don't know why this thing could happen in scientific world, any people know the true reason?
In the response of my last question related to Saffir-simpson Hurricane Scale(SSHS), some people claimed that "Stronger TCs usually have stronger winds but do not always have stronger damage to human and vice versa." I think that he doesn't know OGP problems of SSHS. SSHS use the maximum sustaining winds to stand for the intensity of a tropical cyclone, so there is an overgeneralization problem(OGP), due to the area of the maximum sustaining winds is just very small part of whole area of a tropical cyclone. For example, a person has a big head, but his body is very short, we can not say the man is very strong man. That is the OGP problem!!
Is it funny that some people didn't know this and made a wrong conclusion to
comment on a new classification method for tropical cyclones?
Is it possible to get images of any particular tropical cyclones eye from any Satellite (as like Landsat) continuously (6 or 4 hrs period) for 3 or 4 days?
Recently, I have developed two new techniques: one is used to gauge both the intensity of tropical cyclones and the intensity of tropical cyclones; the other is used to identify significant signals of El Nino or La Nina. With these two tools,I have solved some important problems : one is the definition of "El nino years", "La Nina Years", Ocean Stabilization Index.....etc. Furthermore, a new theory called "Ocean Stabilization Machine" theory on global climate change has been proposed. And I gave the presentation in an important Peak BBS of Chinese Academy of Engineering in Hangzhou on October 25, which received very important attentions. Here, I am looking for some collaborators in other fields related to global climate change.
Thank you very much for your attention!
I have been observing that when monsoon moisture moves over certain tropical forests located in SE Asia or India, rain clouds with very long streaks form. Has anyone studied if this is caused by Pseudomonas bacteria that live on particular species of tropical trees, and if so which tree species produce the most rain clouds? Attached is a satellite image from August 2014 showing these particular clouds forming over the forests along the SW coast of India.