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Trade - Science topic

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Prevent Fraud, Enable Transparency and Increase Trade speed;
All of these can be done using Blockchain Technology. So, should we change and if yes, how likely will the industry adapt the new technologies?
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Yes, of course. The shipping industry really needs to be improved.
The use of blockchain could be part of the improvement. Technology is so advanced now that some paperwork is not useful anymore in the way they are managed.
I think it is not about probabilities of adaptation, it is about investment (it could be high), conform zone (they feel comfortable as they are), and competitivity (not all harbors are optional), but I am sure the shipping industry will be improved despite that.
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I am currently seeking further information on the current state of international trade in Sri Lanka for my assignment.
1. What is the nature of international trade performance in Sri Lanka since 1980?
2. How will this trade performance have a short-term and long-term impact on the economy?
3. What are your alternative solutions to this economic crisis?
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I am not sure whether the deadline for your assignment has passed, but having noted the question only now, let me try to provide my take on the 3 questions that you have put forward.
1. Trade has increased over the past several decades (you can obtain annual data on the same from the special appendix tables of the CBSL Annual Report - Table 4 https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/publications/annual_report/2021/en/16_S_Appendix.pdf).
But what needs to be noted is that we have been running trade deficits continuously for the past 4-5 decades (perhaps even more). So, in that sense, trade performance wise, we have failed to get a net inflow to the country. This could be largely due to various issues including lack of product/market diversification, lack of a national policy towards export/trade promotion, less relative gains from FTAs, heavy competition from other countries, to name a few.
2. Trade performance, in general, if we run a surplus, will have both short and long term benefits to an economy. In the case of Sri Lanka, higher imports, would mean people enjoyed imported goods and therefore higher standards of living and livelihoods (direct short term benefit). But, having run trade deficits, which means higher imports than exports, the rest would need to be financed through other inflows (i.e., non debt creating inflows including tourism or workers' remittances or FDI, failing which funds will have to be borrowed (i.e., debt)). And we jolly well know where we have ended up as a result. There's much more to this, but this is a very short description on Q2.
3. The current crisis needs reforms in many fronts including political, social, legal and the public sector. From a (merchandise) trade perspective, our focus should be to improve exports (which now continues to benefit from a depreciated exchange rate). For that, product and market diversification is crucial (check https://oec.world/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/lka/all/show/2020/ and compare how Sri Lanka's product/market mix have remained less dynamic compared to other peers like Vietnam/Thailand), and linking ourselves to global value chains is imperative. Favourable FTAs would be a plus. Sri Lanka should aim to gain the most from GSP/GSP+ schemes and gain a global footprint. There's more to this as well.
Just my 2 cents. Hope this helps Madushani Edirisooriya
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Current and future trends in liner shipping operations in terms of capacity, trade and port facilities.
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Clarksons research is regular providing this data
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I have taken out mobile Banking transactions of past 5 years of 4 banks and similar data is this the right way to go about it
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Digital offerings by different banks are an element of their product offerings to their various customer bases. And as such it is unlikely that they will publicize or divulge data about the individual standing or specific data in such area, on basis that is that this is highly sensitive commercial information. Furthermore, to the best of my knowledge there are no IFRS requirements, or even EU Regulations that specifically harp on such data.
This is a very individualized bank-specific area.
Dr John Consiglio
University of Malta
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I am trying to model the effects of trade liberalization/ openness, income inequality on poverty reduction.
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Some things for you to consider: In the neoclassical Hecksher-Ohlin model opening to trade has predictable impacts on the factor distribution of income and, given initial distribution of factor ownership, predictable impacts on personal distribution of income (hence inequality). In H-O models opening to trade increases demand for resources that go into export industries and reduces demand or those that are most used in import competing industries.
In a country whose comparative advantage lies in producing capital intensive goods (a country in which capital is relatively cheap) the demand for capital rises relative to other resources and the return to capital rises. Import competing goods are relatively labor intensive, demand for labor falls and so do wages. If, as usual, ownership of capital is relatively concentrated the personal income distribution becomes more unequal.
in a country which begins to specialize in labor intensive goods the reverse is predicted in every respect. Matters in an H-O type model become more complex when you begin to take into account more resources--natural resources, human skill levels, and variations in technology. However, this type of model offers predictions and points to specific things to look for in trying to analyze and model the effects of opening to trade.
If you want to use a Marxist based analysis then you would want to look at the way openness changes the balance of power between capitalists and workers and between local capitalists and global capitalists. These changes would be expected to change the rate of exploitation of labor. If the opening to trade allowed relatively mobile capital to gain power over relatively immobile labor the balance would be expected to move in favor of capitalists in all countries and therefore increase inequality in all countries. Here again this points to the kinds of variables you would want to consider in analyzing and modeling openning to trade.
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Hello everyone!
Sometimes the total labor force of a country has a positive correlation with total trade value (Export+ Import). However, some countries' total labor force negatively affects total trade value. Suppose a country has a negative relationship with total trade value. What is the reason behind this? How can that country's total labor force impact that country's foreign trade?
Please let me know if you have any ideas!
Thank you!
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The concept of the free-market economy is based on an assumption that no single person or country can influence market prices of goods. But as we may all agree, "dominant" countries in the international trade fix prices of goods to their advantage. For example, the international oil market price is determined by a very few powerful players. Developing countries are "small" players in most traded goods (particularly raw materials) and have to accept prices fixed by dominant countries. What can Africa do to avoid the challenges that bedevil the world economic system resulting in socio-econmic inequality and stratifications between the global North and the South?
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Taking into account - among other things - that the number of trade interventions is on a rise (according to Global Trade Alert data), it is worth studying contemporary protectionism in international trade in goods.
In many studies explaining trade, trade barriers are not considered as an explanatory variable. What if all barriers were estimated and an indicator / approximator of protectionism would be created? This would be valuable as it would complete the models explaining trade.
However, are there any protectionist indices (that also allow to compare the trade policies of different countries)?
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I'm writing a research paper but somehow stuck on choosing the most suited methodology and literature review. Anyone who is an expert can give and share their valuable suggestions and recommendations.
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I would like work on Benin bilateral trade: Patterns and potential.
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Dear doctor Komlavi, I'm in complete agreement with my colleague answer's doctor Byaro.
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I have just started research for my dissertation as an Electronic Engineer and want to look into the use of an automated market maker for Peer to Peer electricity trading.
An automated market maker is a method of settling trades whereby a buyer and seller make trades out of a centralised liquidity pool. This method allows for traders to make trades whenever they want to and also without having to be matched to a corresponding buyer. You can read more here https://medium.com/balancer-protocol/what-is-an-automated-market-maker-amm-588954fc5ff7.
One of the drawbacks of such a system is that buyers and sellers are not matched and therefore it is harder to ensure that the electricity sold and electricity bought are exactly equal (as is required in a power system)? Do you think that this drawback will render an automated market maker impractical?
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Thanks very much all - I'm trying to make a simulation of my system now. Does anyone have any idea of how to set up a system?
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How should i approach this question
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When you are going to find impact of X ( here company’s logistics performance) on Y ( here global international trade), you need to be able to measure both variable (X and Y) using some tools. To do this you need to read the literature and find the criteria/ measures for global international trade.
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72% of ETF schemes of 2018 have expense ratio of 0.20% or lower - thanks to increased competition
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ETF competition is catching up in India... and the lowest cost charged is currently at 0.05% per annum! :)
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I have trade volume daily data for 12 years of 500 companies. I wanna divide these companies into high, medium and low volume portfolio using trade volume data. Can someone help me in this regard
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Hi Komal,
I have in mind two easy ways. First (the most simple), you can use distribution quartiles. For example, companies with low volume are those below the first 25% of the distribution, while those with high volume are above 75% (the others have medium volume). Alternatively, you can use time series cluster analysis approaches to define 3 groups of companies with homogenous volume's time patterns. In this way, you can let the data decide the composition of the 3 groups without making any questionable choices.
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What degree does the inadequate of the implementation of ECOWAS
protocol policy on free trade movmovement affect the security situation
of West African sub-region.
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The Economic Community of West African States is a huge regional organization. It is a political organization and a regional economic union of 15 countries in West Africa, therefore , it can played a central role in regional security if its leaders agree to do so, a good example is when its leaders agreed to impose very harsh sanctions on Mali after the ruling military junta delayed a return to civilian rule.
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Hi All, I am have been assigned a project on Trade and optimisation using machine learning. As this domain is new to me so I dont have enough material to study and start working on.
Request the larger audience to please share the source from where I can read and get a practical experience of the topic.
Thanks
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That is a very large field, and superinteresting. I suggest you try the package Reinforcement Learning. If you have enough commercial data you could obtain some patterns to optimize your commercial strategies. But there are other options depending on your specific "trade": randomforests to classify your clients or your products, equilibrium models to understand the whole market, input-output tables to study international trade ( package iotables ), etc.
If we call it "intelligent trade" you can imagine clearly the impact it can have at the world level. Anyway, it´s not an easy task. Good luck.
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Except for some early protectionist behaviour by some countries and the consumer panic buying in the early days of the pandemic, global food supply chains have demonstrated remarkable resilience during this whole time. Currently, there are no global food shortages. In fact, the prices did fall slightly at one point. During the 2007-08 economic crisis, however, food prices were severely disrupted. Please share your thoughts on how this occurred and whether global food supply chains have become more sophisticated. Also, what are the implications for "local foods" in the pandemic?
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Also check..
Development of the Organic Food Market in Romania during the...
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How is the notion of "cultural distance" perceived/defined/employed/researched/tackled in current business/management/trade/etc. studies?
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You will likely find the (recent) work of people such as Oded Shenkar, Sjoerd Beugelsdijk, and Douglas Dow very useful. A good starting point might be: Beugelsdijk, S., T. Kostova, M. van Essen. V. Kunst and E. Spadafora (2018) Cultural distance and the process of firm internationalization, Journal of Management 44(1): 89-130.
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Political economy is a social science that studies production ,trade and their relationship with the law and government through it policies and regulations.
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Political economy researches into the interplay of the body politic and economic, guided by the bigger picture of philosophy, law and human history.
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On the use of the mathematical method in this social scientific field:
Edgeworth F.Y. (2008) Mathematical Methods in Political Economy. In: Palgrave Macmillan (eds) The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1164-2
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Hello everyone,
I’m new here and I have a question about some market data I wish I could find somewhere.
-Short question-
The data I’m looking for is the price at which every individual share of a stock or unit of a crypto was traded last time.
Also an aggregated indicator that calculates the “sum of (each share * last individual traded price)” would be ok.
-Detailed question-
I would need this indicator to evaluate discrepancies in value of a stock or crypto. Indeed market cap, float and volume can be misleading indicators according to which shares they refers.
Practical example:
Let’s say a crypto (any shitcoin) is generated from nothing and have a total of 100.000 units, now each unit is priced 1$ so the market cap is 100.000$. In detail 50% of them was never traded (0$ tot), 30% was traded long time ago last time at 0.50$ (15.000$ tot) and the rest 20% is actively traded nowadays at 1$ (20.000$ tot). Therefore the real “acquired value over time” (AVOT) it is 0$+15.000$+20.000$=35.000$, and on average all the money put into this asset can support an average price of each unit of 0,35$ (against 1$ of the current price).
The way AVOT changes is disconnected from any other classic indicator (market cap, volume, float, SMA, EMA, etc) because changes according to which individual units are moved.
Continuing the example let’s say that today 20% of the units are traded at market price (1$). This won’t change the market cap, float or average volume compared to the previous example. In case this 20% are the units bought at 1$ the AVOT won’t change and remain 35.000$. If instead the traded ones are from the pool of the 50% untouched units then it will become +20.000$+55.000$, and on average all the money put into this asset could support an average price of each unit of 0,55$ that is way closer to the actual price and therefore more reliable and solid.
Second scenario: let’s say that 40% of the units are traded during a selloff at market price of 0.5$. In case the units sold are half the ones bought at 1$ and half the ones bought at 0$ the market cap will become 50.000$ and the AVOT 30.000*0$+20.000*0,5$+30.000*0.5$+20.000*0.5$=35.000$. In the case instead the units sold are entirely the ones bought at 0$ the AVOT will be 10.000*0$+40.000*0,5$+30.000*0.5$+20.000*1$=55.000$, that’s even higher than the market cap that stays at 55.000$.
Overall having the AVOT price would give me an idea on the fragility of the stock/crypto, telling me if the price I’m paying is close or far from the amount of money that globally and all time long people put in that asset.
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I will try to answer your short question. May be find some data on websites of Reuter, Bloomberg, etc about the data you want. Sometimes you need to pay to get access. Good luck
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Hello to Everyone, I want to research FDI's Impact on foreign trade. To examine this, I would like to use Bangladesh FDI and Foreign trade data. For this research which model can, I choose? For that model, which variable can I choose? I need your suggestion. If you have any idea about it, please share it with me. If you know someone who researched that topic, please share that!
#FDI #International_trade #foreign_trade #trade
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Hello.
If you want to study the relationship between FDI and Trade, first-best option is to use micro-data: are firms that are a filial of a foreign firms more export-oriented than domestically-controlled firms, after controlling for firm size and sector? But I don't know if you have access to this type of micro-data (World Bank has a repository of data on firms, perhaps you may look at it).
If you have only macro data (e.g., World Bank development indicators), I suspect using a single country case study won't do the job. There are too many variables involved and too many endogeneity issues to be treated.
Using macro-data and even if your interest in on Bangladesh alone, I would suggest using a panel approach with fixed effects, and see what Bangladesh fixed effect tells you.
Model specification using macro-data is another issue, as we don't have a clear theoretical model (you don't need such a theoretical model when using micro-data, as the empirical analysis is, basically, done comparing two samples).
Variables are not clearly identified: FDI can be greenfield or M&A, which may change the results (or not). Smooth transition vector autoregression modelling on panel data may be an option to deal with the fuzzy specification issue.
Good luck...
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My Variables are not strongly correlated and some variables are dummy variables.
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After resolving the issue of multi-collinearity, I suggest that you use the PPML estimation technique.
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In most cases, we deal with active Ports at the level of Maritime Trade and a continuous resume of their activities. But there may be Ports that were previously active but have been disabled for various reasons. My question is about your information and experiences in these cases and how to Revitalizing them?
Best
Behrooz
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Dear Behrooz Fathi , thank you for your question which is valid even now. Below article of 2021 can also help to shade some light on ports.
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Agrarian economy, surpuls managemnt is becoming a serious problem. Even if defficit, country need to import goods, But vertual water trade indirectly unfavaour those countries whose water resource are poor. therefore, vertual water trade should seriouely debated and carfully import and export the goods and services.
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This is a very good discussion! What is the importance of potential unless we use it! Assuming the current potentials of the world, there are still high water and land potential to produce more. Resources must be efficiently utilized. I recommend onsite utilization of the resources especially water resources. African has the potentials for water and soil resources for the production of more food for the rest of the world. But, when they start to develop a means of using their own resources there are many internationally complex issues. I feel the new generation should develop something about effective and prudent utilization of resources for the benefit of the whole world!
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Looking for base oil market: supply/demand/trade, by product, application, region
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Mourad Heddouche you're welcome sir
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The world after World War II was based on the concept of multilateralism in various political and economic fields. Embodiment in the growing role of international organizations.
On the economic level, the establishment of the World Trade Organization sealed the triangle of international organizations that dominate the world economy (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank).
However, with the increase in protectionist tendencies, trade tensions, and the tendency towards concluding bilateral and regional agreements, fears have emerged that multilateralism will enter a crisis that threatens its survival.
What do you think of that?
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The politization of the virus has reinforced the global tendencies towards protectionism and authoritarianism, which means that the capitalist dynamics is in deep crisis. Russian economists MI. Tugan-Baranovsky and N. Kondratieff pointed to the cyclicity of human-made economic systems and to the key role of free thought and will in economic decision-making, i.e. any human-made system cannot die a natural death (‚palliative economics does not work’), but needs to be re-shaped by macro-prudence and time-tested wisdom, with respect to a win/win bargain.
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What is the changing logistics of the distribution of products or services in connection with the development of Internet trade, online payments and settlements, and the provision of information services via the Internet?
Please reply
Best wishes
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Dear Arcelan S. Sadiq,
Yes, finding alternatives to products at the most appropriate prices with the ability to provide processing and delivery services internationally increased its importance during the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic in 2020.
I invite you to the discussion,
Thank you very much,
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Current consumption and production patterns are increasingly founded in global value chains (GVC). Typically, GVCs are structured in several tiers distributed across countries and including a wide set of activities (design, production, distribution, etc). Given the current situation of industrial development and energy transition, comprehensive assessments are required to understand how supply chains work and where they are located. In this sense, which are the most appropriate indicators for mapping supply chains? According to the high availability of trade data (e.g., from Comtrade database), could the trade performance indicators (e.g., relative trade balance or Balassa index) be suitable for identification of net exporters or importers of commodities within the supply chain under evaluation?
I would appreciate if anyone could shed light on these questions.
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Suppose I want to determine the effect of World Trade Organization (WTO) membership on a country’s level of international trade. WTO membership is my independent variable, and level of international trade is my dependent variable. To test this, I simply look at trade as a percentage of GDP for all WTO members and all non-WTO members. As expected, I find that WTO members tend to trade more as a proportion of GDP.
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Together with Jie Zhang we investigated a similar question for tourism and using data for that particular pillar of the WTO (commitments under tourism specifically). The paper is available under my profile - it is the one published in JITED in 2013. We found out that it is mainly small island economies that may have less to gain from trade liberalisation that are not members of this pillar (or in fact of the WTO in general). Over time you will have the problem that nearly all countries are members of the WTO, so then it becomes harder to investigate your hypothesis. Perhaps you need to look into more particular explanatory factors (as we did in our paper) to increase the reliability of the data you are using. Reverse causality will of course be another classical econometric problem that you are facing - but it could be fixed using a panel data approach. Some countries may also face the problem now with hyperglobalisation that their WTO membership has led to more trade but of the extensive growth type - e.g. China may be trading more and more with the rest of the world in quantities but not necessarily earning more from those exports over time. That leads us into the current global environmental trap we are in (drawing in more and more natural resources and emitting more and more CO2 without it leading to more welfare or value) - not unlike the one the Soviet Union faced before it imploded.
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I am researching about the role of FDI on trade balance in the Western Balkan countries. Can you help me with related research and finding data?
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Central Banks of the countries in the region provide the data needed for the research of this topic on their respective websites. As for the relevant studies, you may find the following paper on the topic interesting:
Jacimovic, D. (2013). FDI Effects to the Balance of Payment in the Western Balkan Countries, in (Mojsovska, S., Ed.) "Regional Trade Integration in South East Europe: Benefits and Challenges", Skopje: Institute of Economics.
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I want some current articles related to Economic Globalization and Trade Liberalization? your suggestions and thanks.
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A very interesting and important question
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Economic taxes or what trade uses are financial policy tools that countries use to influence an economic activity on it, which leads to knowing their role in directing economic activities in those countries, Ireland, Sweden, help in this in order to finish my PhD project
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Hello everyone,
I am working on my thesis that is about decision difficulty, and I have 3 independent variables, that are all dimensions of decision difficulty ( preference uncertainty, emotional trade off difficulty and task complexity. I would perform an experiment and for this reason I am searching for measurement of these dimensions. Is there anybody know how I can measure the trade off difficulty on a likert scale? I conducted extensive research but I have yet to find something.
My research question: how do different sources of decision difficulty interact and affect a consumers willignes to use a recommendation agent moderated by time pressure?
My experiment will be a 2 ( decision difficulty high vs low ) X 2 ( time pressure high vs low ) between design.
I would appreciate if someone can help me
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I am still confused, because you list decision difficulty as consisting of three things (preference uncertainty, emotional trade off difficulty and task complexity), so how is this a single condition?
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Dear all,
I am trying to build a gravity model with the Global Value Chains indicator (backward and forward participation) as dependent variables. However, I wonder which are the diagnostic tests I should implement to correctly specify the model and to decide the estimator. I know that the literature recommends using the Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator in case of trade because of the larges amount of zeros and log-variables issues. However, Global Value Chains indicators do not contain a considerable amount of zeros values and they are expressed in percentages (hence, I will not take the log). The literature does not provide many clues and I hope you will help with this dilemma.
Any suggestion is warmly appreciated Best regards
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Good morning.
I will not comment on the model but on the data and the underlying micro-model.
Most (if not all) GVC indicators are calculated on the basis of the Leontief inverse matrix. Doing gravity on such data may be interesting out of curiosity, but makes little economic sense.
The Leontief inverse provides information on the total contribution of all industries, either directly (providing inputs for the production of the output) or indirectly (providing inputs to other producers that produced outputs that where reused as inputs by other industries, and so on and so forth...)
From a micro-economic perspective, the sole purchase of input that makes sense is the first one (direct requirement, based on the matrix of technical coefficients): the producer purchases inputs on the basis of their CIF cost (FOB price plus cost of transportation).
The effect of distance on the procurement decision of indirect inputs (value added incorporated in the FOB price) is not under the control of the purchasing firm.
Intuitively, it should be possible to build an iterative micro-model that chains all the upstream procurements of inputs, each upstream firm minimizing its procurement cost, in particular on the basis of distance. But the relationship with the first purchase, if it exists, is weaker.
Not sure it helps, but ...
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I need the software I described
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I've never done any analysis of this type, but I know there are packages in R that allow image analysis. One of the most common uses for me is to analyze changes in geography and biology, but I believe it can be used for any type of image. Performing a quick search I found the package "EBImage", take a look at it, maybe that's what you're looking for.
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Hi everyone!
I'm conducting some research on mispricing of penny stock options. I have historical transactions for a period of time of both the stock and the option(s), and I want to see if and when the mispricing happens. And possibly also find some kind of correlation with other events.
I´ve mostly used Stata earlier on, but as the stock options and the underlying stock is not always traded in the same second, I would have to change the timeline in to 1- minute intervals or so.
Is there some kind of software or model that is more suitable for this kind of analysis? Possibly one that supports arbitrage or mispricing analysis without having the transactions to happen the exactly same second.
Thanks in advance!
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Hello, I'm writing a paper on a displacement effect of Sub-Saharan Africa's(SSA)exports on Russian exports on the common market. According to the most papers devoted to the displacement effect, it's possible that the variable of interest(SSA exports) may not be exogenous and it is therefore important to recognize its potential endogeneity. The most common instruments are GDP and the distance between the country and the common market.
So my question is maybe anyone has come across papers that has methodology for construction an instrumental variable (distance and GDP) not for one country (in most papers it's China) but for the group of countries, in particular SSA, in a gravity trade model?
Best regards
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Carolina Correa, Imad Alaamshani Thank you very much for your reply and articles!
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There is a ton of articles and videos about the gravity model of trade, but they either give you the basic theory or provide a result and analysis without panel data. Is there any step-by-step tutorial on the gravity model of trade with a simple explanation and all the numbers?
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Dear researchers
I am calculating Gravity Equation. For the OLS everything goes normal but when taking a country id and time fixed effects then Distance goes wrong. Can anyone explain this how to make it negatively affect trade volume? 
I have attached the screenshot of my equation and results. 
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Dear Saba
It's been a long I was facing the issue but solved it successfully. Kindly allow me to know more about your sample size and variable descriptions.
Best Wishes!
Dr. Saqib
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Dear Sir/ Madam,
I am doing a research using gravity model of trade about the influences of ACFTA (ASEAN China Free Trade Area) on Vietnam’s export to ACFTA’ members. My probem with the estimation results is that most of my coefficiencts’ significance of explanatory variable are at 10% level of confidence, this is a major setback for me as I believe that a number of explanatory variables (such as GDP, GDP per Capita, ...) should have higher level significance.
Please allow me to represent the database, the regression model, the estimation methods and the stata command that I have used so far. I would really be grateful if you can point out where I have done wrong and where I can correct my mistakes.
1. First is the database (attached in this forum below in excel and dta. File). The database consists of 16 countries (Vietnam as the main exporter and the rest 15 countries are Vietnam’s export destinations), 15 pairs across 19 years (2000 – 2018), 285 observations in total. The data will be transform to longidunital panel data in Stata.
2. Secondly, its the gravity model regression and estimation methods
The gravity model regression I choose to analyse the relations between trade (dependent variables) and other explanatory variables as follow:
xtreg ln_trade ln_gdp_exp ln_gdp_imp ln_gdppc_exp ln_gdppc_imp ln_distw contig fta_vjfta fta_vkfta fta_vanzfta fta_vifta fta_acfta, re
The ln stands for natural logarithm from the trade, gdp, gdppc (gdp per capita), distance. The rest are dummy variables with the value of 0 or 1.
I did run both Fixed effect model and Random effect model, the results of Hausman test suggest Random effect model being better. Please see my estimation results of random effect model in the attached jpeg file 📷
As you can see, the problem is that major explanatory variables has significance at 10% level, which is highly prone to mistake and rejected with 5% level of confidences. Furthermore, the ln_distance has positive relations with dependent variable (it should have been negative sign in my knowledge).
I would be really grateful if you can tell me where I have made mistakes, it is the database or the estimation methods that are wrong, or something else.
Thank you for your precious assistance, I wish the best for all.
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Digital marketplaces are now significantly contributing to trade from/to a country (and this pace is accelerated due to forced digital transformation brought by COVID19). Trade openness allows socio-economic development of a country, if this is the case than digital marketplaces can be regarded as impact startups that influence the socio-economic fabric of a country, but can we actually estimate the impact of digital marketplaces on the trade openness of a country?
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Digitalisation is linked with greater trade openness, selling more products to more markets and in less concentrated export baskets (Lopez-Gonzalez and Ferencz, 2018). ... Digitalisation also increases the benefits that can be drawn from regional trade agreements (RTAs).
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Hello community! I have a quick question.
-Dummy variable takes value of 1 if developed, takes value of 0 if developing
-Dummy variable takes value of 1 for post-crisis (2009-2015), takes value of 0 for pre-crisis (2005-2008)
My question is:
Can I use the interaction between them, developed*post, and interact with my explanatory variables?
Example:
Dependent variable: GDPgrowth
Independent Variables: Infrastructure, Capital Formation, Labor Force, Trade
Can I do the following?:
GDPgrowth= Infrastructure + Capital Formation + Labor Force + Trade + Infrastructure*developedpost + Capital Formation*developedpost + Labor Force*developedpost + Trade*developedpost
What I want to achieve is for example:
Is the impact of infrastructure on GDP growth significant in developed countries after the crisis, in comparison with developing countries before crisis.
(This is a panel data).
Thank you very very much!
I can't find this anywhere..
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Dear Enrique,
yes, baseline coefficient means the non-interacted terms. In your case, you have a continous variable interacted with developed*post crisis. So the interaction you propose would tell you the diffential effect for developed countries in the post crisis period. So this means that all other combinations (develped pre-crisis, non-developed pre and post crisis) are pooled together. If you have a justification for that, it's fine. Otherwise you sould interact, for example, capital formation (K) with both dummies (crisis and developed). In this way, the baseline category would be developing countries-pre crisis and you could get the differential effect of 1) the crisis (the coefficients for K*crisis), being a developed country (K*developed) and being developed and in post crisis (K*developed*crisis).
I hope this was clear,
best,
P.E.
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I was looking for modern trade theories as a basis of international trade in 21st century. Starting from Absolute, comparative advantage, Inter, intra industry, gravity models, demand-based or product cycle theory; What ultimate factors/theory one must consider while looking for trade potential among countries in 21st century? Is Revealed comparative advantage still can give substantial information for potential trade specifically for Afriacn-Asian trade?
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Comparative advantage as per David Ricardo remains the key natural driver of trade and exchange.
Second may come techno-economic cooperation of countries, where mutual benefits can be realized per agreements of win/win.
Trade and commerce are the great educators and civilizers of humankind, with respect to the efficient and marginal use of limited natural (land), human (skilled and knowledge labor) and technical (capital formation) resources.
Conference Paper Sociology a la Comte?
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Dear Researchers! Have a splendid day ahead
I am looking for suggestions for new explanatory variables for the gravity model of trade except for traditional variables such as, (GDP, Per Capita, Distance, Exchange rates, Tariff, dummies, etc)
Let's open the window to ideas, will wait for your reply
Best Wishes,
Dr. Saqib
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Many thanks to Muhammad Saqib Irshad for his interesting question, and to Nazir Muhammad Abdullahi and Kenneth Anyalechi for their contributions.
Far from being an expert on the subject, I take the liberty to add some elements. Such as: urbanization levels, proximity of cities to the sea, population density and growth of urban agglomerates, economy of scale of companies, technological concentration, transportation costs, international supply chains, trade specialization, productivity level of companies, trade pacts, language, culture.
I apologize Saqib for the vague and general nature of the response. We look forward to the contributions of more colleagues who are working on these issues, which will help us to clarify and order the existing knowledge.
Best regards and thanks
Fernando (from Argentina)
Muchas gracias a Muhammad Saqib Irshad por su interesante pregunta, y a Nazir Muhammad Abdullahi y Kenneth Anyalechi por sus aportes.
Lejos de ser un experto en el tema, me tomo el atrevimiento de adicionar algunos elementos. Como ser: Niveles de urbanización, cercanía al mar de las ciudades, densidad demográfica y crecimiento de los aglomerados urbanos, economía de escala de las empresas, concentración tecnológica, costos de transporte, cadenas internacionales de suministro, especialización comercial, nivel de productividad de las empresas, pactos comerciales, lenguaje, cultura.
Le pido disculpas Saqib por el carácter vago y general de la respuesta. Esperamos los aportes de más colegas que están trabajando estos temas, que nos ayuden precisar y ordenar el conocimiento existente.
Un saludo y gracias
Fernando (desde Argentina)
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Dears,
How we would become self sufficient in food production while maintaining the extant biodiversity?
Best regards,
Takele
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I agree. Faraed Salman
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Which determinants other than tariffs should be considered in determining the winners and losers of trade wars?
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Leading American and Chinese economists answer one question: name one way the U.S.-China trade war has affected the American economy and global trade over the past two years. Despite the signing of a phase-one deal on January 15, until all tariffs are lifted many of these adverse impacts will continue.
Regards,
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I design the MBBR plant for wastewater treatment. I calculated the volume of Tank and Media. Suppose 60 percent media volume is equal to 3 m3 of a typical MBBR tank with a 4-5 hours retention period. In the market, FAB media trades as kilograms.
How many kilograms of 3 m3 (k3 model suppose) FAb media?
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We actually normally sell the media in Price / m3. If you go to Alibaba to search for Chinese copies of our K3 and take the risk with the quality of the product you will find a price in kg of Plastic since this is what they are selling and not also the knowhow necessary to follow the process. The density of our media - as you will be able to read in the original patent is 0.93 -0.97 kg/dm3 so 1 m3 has a weight of 95 kg. Any media been out of that range will either swim or sink when Biofilm starts to grow.
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I am currently working on a project where I am testing a Pairs Trading Strategy based on Cointegration. In this strategy I have 460 possible stock pairs to choose from every day over a time frame of 3 years. I am using daily Cointegration test and get trade signals based off of that to open or close a trade. According to this strategy I am holding my trades open until either the take profit condition (revert to mean of spread) or stop loss condition (spread exceeding [mean + 3* standard deviation]) holds. This means that some trades might be open a couple of days, others might be open for weeks or even months.
My question is now: How can i calculate the returns of my overall strategy?
I know how to calculate the returns per trade but when aggregating returns over a certain time period or over all traded pairs I have problems.
Let's say I am trying to calculate returns over 1 year. I could take the average of all the trade returns or calculate sum(profits per trade of each pair)/sum(invested or committed capital per trade), both of these would only give me some average return values.
Most of my single trades are profitable but in the end I am trying to show how profitable my whole trading strategy is, so I would like to compare it to some benchmark, but right now I don't really know how to do that.
One idea I had, was to possibly estimate the average daily return of my trading strategy by:
  1. Estimating daily return per trade: (return of trade)/(number of days that trade was open)
  2. Taking the average of all the daily returns per trade
Then finally I would compare it to the average daily return of an index over the same time frame.
Does this make any sense or what would be a more appropriate approach?
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I think the idea is good, it makes sense to calculate the average daily return on your trading strategy by:
1. Estimation of daily return on a transaction: (return on a transaction) / (number of days during which the trade was opened)
2. Taking the average of all daily income per transaction
Then compare with the average daily return on the index for the same period of time. In this case, the index is the base or reference and to estimate the deviation from it. You can also test a hypothesis about the differences and whether they are statistically significant.
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BREXISM finally is over and they got a trade deal with europe now, but exism left the UK poorer according to the news
Brexit is finally done. It will leave the UK poorer
TRUMPISM set a war of tariffs with other countries making US citizens poorer, including the supporters of exism, as they have to pay more to continue consuming those goods...
But being poorer both is Brexconomics and Trumpconomics as a result of exism means being a winner as exism is the goal, no matter the cost, loyalty is to the exism is the rule, not to the country....
Which leads to the question, Are there only winners in the world of exism? What do you think?
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What econometric tools would be appropriate to measure the impact of changes in the Fiscal and Monetary policy on trade diversification of a country?
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Can you give us a little bit more details about your database or the data you want to analyze ?
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Global supply and demand chain of finance and capital got severely disrupted due to the widespread attack of novel corona virus. can we consider that the global economy is heading towards a 'liquidity trap' situation? During this lockdown situation of almost all the countries of the world, would the global services and finance trade will fill the vacuum of world merchandise trade?
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Dear Shaijumon C S,
When the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic appeared in March 2020, the situation on the financial markets changed significantly, there was a panic sale of shares on stock exchanges, and investment risk increased significantly. In terms of international financial markets, as in previous economic and financial crises, speculative capital was withdrawn from the emerging markets of smaller economies. Banks and investment funds operating internationally were changing the structure of their investment portfolios in foreign financial markets. In addition, international delivery logistics has changed. The changes mainly concerned shortening international supply logistics chains and increasing the scale of domestic production of components and semi-finished products necessary for the implementation of the production processes of final products. In this way, the scale of international capital flows has decreased.
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Hello every one. At the moment, I am conducting a research (PhD Theses) about trade openness and economic growth in Libya. My question is that, should I use nominal or real trade openness index. The index which I am planning to use is trade share. Therefor, I am a bit confused of using this index.
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Mohammad Sahabuddin. Thank you very much for your response.
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Hi colleague researchers!
I've been preparing research on Digital twin and machine learning adoption at retail/wholesale companies. But it appears that ML is applicable in a limited number of operations, in reality. Such as demand forecasting in category management. In your experience what is the situation in the industry?
Geography of my data source is Central Asia and Former Soviet Union countries.
I am also open for joint research in this field.
Regards,
Askar
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Many many congratulations. Really a very good topic of research.
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US-China relations soured during the Trump Presidency, harming their trade relations and those of the world. Will the Biden Presidency restore normalcy and promote bilateral and global trade?
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It is expected that Biden will not follow the footsteps of Trump who had uncordial relationship during his tenure with China. Joe Biden tends to follow the principles of Democrats which will prompt him to ensure there is a cordial relationship between US and China. This will end up improving the terms of trade for the two countries. The trade war between the two countries will definitely disappear soon. US-China relation on trade is expected to improve tremendously.
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COVID-19 exposed many divisions among countries and prevented the formation of a united front to combat this pandemic. Even the very closely networked blocs such as ASEAN and EU failed to coordinate their efforts to combat COVID-19 because of national interest. Undermining the world organizations such as WHO, ICOJ, and the United nation various agencies are not painting a very good picture of what to come in the future. Can globalization survive?
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Due to the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic, a lot will change in terms of economic globalization. International, intermodal logistics chains of supply and distribution are shortened.
Regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Trump's withdrawal from TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) opened avenues for RCEP. Now, new US president Biden has a different outlook regarding international trade and role of USA in international economic engagements. How will this change in USA's international economic outlook impact China led RCEP?
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Ashis, your query is some days back now, and as all changes emerge in political decision-making with new US leadership, I trust that TTP will definitely change, too, for the better. You are better positioned in Peking, China, than me in Berlin, Germany, to validate further effects of such, looking forward to your analysis. best for now, Susanne
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Who is a "central body" for renewable energy source certification and process implementation? Are REC, iREC, GO securities or there is another legal scheme?
Is it possible to trade them outside the country ?
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Dear Vitalii,
There is no any central body to decide on support schemes and implementation procedures generally valid for each state. These policies and regulations are decided at the state level. Within the EU, certificates may be traded between states on the basis of bilateral agreements. But even within the EU, the decision to adopt a certain support scheme is taken at the state level. Directive 2018/2001 (Art. 4 and 5) makes concrete recommendations in this regard.
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Could trade in wildlife products have sparked the outbreak of corona virus in Chinese wildlife markets in Wuhan, Hubei pronvice?
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definitely, Chinese trade in wildlife products puts our lives at risk. The coronavirus has now infected more than 1.4 million people worldwide.
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Dear respectful community researchers,
I am interested to find out the impact of Institution, Geography, and Trade on Economic Development of a single country.
I do know that for several countries' analysis, researchers mostly used the Hausmann and Taylor (1981) model to find the impact. Unfortunately, I have no idea if any model exists to be suitable to execute on a single country.
I am very much looking forward to hearing from you.
Thank you so much indeed
Best Regards,
Abdul Rahim
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To devleop these type of models on a single country, you have to start your study by a strong motivation to convince the reader why you do such a work on a single country. This has its limitations.
normally, we these type of questions Gravity models to be applied and Dynamic Panel data models for robustness.
As you are facing a single country, consult time series tools: Cointegration, ARDL, NARDL or VECM
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please take it in the US and China's trade war context.
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The tendency to export jobs to low-wage-countries comes at cost of organized labor in high-wage-countries, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Empire.
Concerning the PR China and the CCP, they have already developed a sophisticated ideology and tech-know-logy to overtake the US, in terms of manufacturing and human capital resources, i.e. we are witnessing great changes (hopefully peaceful) in the political economy of the world system a la I.M. Wallerstein. The socialist calculation debate is open again, in terms of K.Polanyi and L.Mises.
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Informal integration emerges on the crossroad of global production chains and international trade system's paths and goes in line with countries' cooperation establishing the most favorable conditions for cross-border trade flows between neighbouring partners. From the other side, new reference points have appeared in the national economies – the roving internationalized production cores which increasingly challenge future specialization and commodity circulation in mutual trade. New internationalized production cores are maturing in the depth of national economies and hence – within regional multilateral agreements –become integrated into global value chains capturing trans-border and supra-national internationalization levels. The states within the economic and political world space, establishing regional integration associations, thus form the necessary and obligatory conditions for the modern reproduction process. So the last is shaping by the integrated continuity of successive stages of the final product creating within the internationalized reproduction process.
The question remains: is this GPNs what lies behind formal integration presented by FTAs and CUs?
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The issue of interdependence of formal and informal integration and it’s grassroots correlates with the two type of borders coexisting in the global economy: administrative (state) and economic ones. Just one and the same global geoeconomic space evolves the set of interconnected national economies which are marked by clear political boundaries and a lot of trans-border (supra-national) internationalized production cores enclosed in fuzzy economic boundaries so that these cores can change (and do so) their scale and configuration in global space permanently. The central core may be formed by a global firm’s key economic activities and upper upstream functions and hence all other functions, different value chains’ links, affiliates and local value-generating effects depicture the peripheral areas within the economic boundaries of these cores.
No less important is the question of how the cohesion between formal and informal integration is achieved? We consider this cohesion to become a multi-dimensional process embracing (1) geographic dimension – that means common / conjugate border, industrial clusters that shape a single delineated business territory; (2) organizational dimension - externalization of individual production processes of companies, segmenting entire GVCs into separate units linked with each other by production cooperation, establishing of affiliates and subcontracting - thus crossing the administrative borders of the countries; (3) value-generating dimension – the enlarging intermediates’ exports within FTA economic space.
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Hello, am writing a dissertation on international trade law, specifically looking at the EU and Africa trade agreement, I need reference materials....I will appreciate if you can help.
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Maybe you will find the information you need here: https://ec.europa.eu/trade/
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The majority of customers who are used to purchasing arts in many countries are tourists. Regarding Covid-19 pandemic, what was the impact on the trade of wooden arts in your home country ?
Thanks in advance for your contribution and best wishes.
Hubert
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Dear colleague Jaylan
Happy near year and sincere thanks for this contribution. How instructive it is !
Best wishes
Hubert
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Teaching realistically in an EFL setting would force us to rely on leaners' explicit knowledge and in turn explicit instruction. On the other hand, long hours of teaching explicitly may not lead to a construct as second or third language proficiency. What is your suggestion or experience in this regard?
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Thank you for that question, Abdolmajid! In fact, it is even one that can change an entire education system, especially the common understanding of many language teachers that everything has to be explained without being asked for. However: if you teach the English language like this, the explicatory process would take over 400 years, says famous linguist Mike Long. And he is right: if you just look at the vocabulary and grammar, the amount of language material is far too big to be conveyed through traditional explicatory lessons. Then, in order to process the language learned, there is time-consuming practice ahead to finally store what you have learned in the long-term memory.
This is where the powerful instrument of implicit learning (though "acquiring" might be a more proper term) appears, the results of which, however, can only be tested to a limited extent. In my opinion, the secret touches two fields:
1) I definitely agree with Letizia D`Andrea, balance between explicit and implicit procedures is the key - but that requires high professional teaching skills. This must be taken into account within any teacher training.
2) Implicit task formats for the classroom AND the world outside school must be developed, where language can be literally grabbed en passant, without knowing, in meaningful contexts, including social media, open teaching scenarios aimed at performance, at practical language usage. They can only be tested through observation and assessment.
We addressed this topic, please see copies here on Researchgate:
Boettger/Koeltzsch: Neural_foundations_of_creativity_in_foreign_language_acquisition
Feel free to download and consider.
And, last but not least, a short answer to your question: No, language cannot be taught EFFICIENTLY in an EFL setting, the process can only be initiated.
Very best, Heiner Boettger
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In the field of international business the trend has been a move towards globalisation and integration. However research has shown that lately most government policies have been of a protectionist nature. How do you view the field of IB and trade develop in the near future? Further globalisation or a move in the opposite direction?
Also how will firms in your view adapt to the new reality? If there is a change? I co-authored an article ( Case study) dealing with potential managerial implications with regards to a changing business environment, the article can be found here:
Best wishes Henrik
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The virus already buried neoclassics and globalization together in a family tomb.
International business will continue, but not under ideological umbrella of ' the new economy illusion'. Chinese state capitalism will teach a decisive lecture of 'financial markets as statecraft' or war by other means to the 'free Western world'.
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I have become very confused about how I can generate the time series REER [Real Effective Exchange Rate ] data from NER. I am conducting research on,
"How Does The Exchange Rate Affect on The Trade Balance of Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis"
I have taken the data of Nominal exchange rate of 1999-2018 period. Now I need to convert that into REER to run some analysis, Such as regression analysis following the model of Singh (2002) and Rose (1991).
InBoT = β + β InREER + β InY + β InY * +ε
Then I have a plan to check the co-integration between REER and Balance of Trade in the case of Bangladesh.
But, I got stuck in the first phase. Someone help me, I am not getting the time series REER data anywhere, Not even getting a proper way how I can generate it for myself.
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I would assume that the Nominal Exchange Rate (NER) you have it is actually the Effective Exchange Rate (EER).
EER is the weighted average of the bilateral exchange rates of the currency of your country to the currencies of its trading partners.
However, you need this index in Real terms. There are two ways I can think of calculating it.
A Method:
You use (a) the General Price Index of your country - P0 - and (b) a Price Index that represents the price levels of the other countries - P1.
Then: REER = EER * P0 / P1
B Method:
You use the bilateral exchange rates of the domestic currencies to the currencies of the trading partners, convert the to real bilateral exchange rates and then calculate REER as the weighted average of those bilateral real rates, using the trade with each country as the weights.
To be honest, given that both methods are not so easy to apply, I would chose to use only one exchange rate, e.g. the exchange rate of the domestic currency with the currency of the country with the biggest amount of trade, convert it to real exchange rate using the domestic and the foreign CPI, and just use that one. You can ask your lecturer if that is possible.
Good Luck with your research.
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1. When a high correlation between saving and investment, explain how the presence of trade costs can lead to observed patterns of international capital flows?
2. When the disproportionate allocation of portfolio investments to domestic assets relative to a portfolio that minimizes risk., explain how the presence of trade costs can lead to observed patterns of international capital flows?
3. When absence of consumption smoothing, explain how the presence of trade costs can lead to observed patterns of international capital flows?
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Adeyemi Oluwole Professor, Thank you for your recommendation. however, I want exact answer.
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Most developing economies terms of trade are in negative, meaning to say they import more than what they export. The question is? between import substitution strategy and export promotion strategy. which strategy is more appropriate to developing economies and why?
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Electronic platforms have data extraction, as a model that allows other services, goods and technologies to be built on them, as a model that requires more users to obtain network effects, and as a digital medium that simplifies registration and registration. storage. All of these characteristics make platforms a central model for extracting data as a raw material. The data can be used in several ways to generate revenue. For companies like Google and Facebook, data is a resource that can be used to attract advertisers and other interested parties. For companies like Rolls Royce and Uber, data is at the heart of beating the competition: they allow these companies to offer better products and services, control workers and optimize their algorithms, for a more competitive business
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I am trying to see if there's a connection between globalization and health outcome. Going through the KOFGI data set, there are different categories or forms of globalization which includes : social globalization, financial globalization, trade globalization and more. Also , there's dejure which is the policy that preceded the actual globalization event and defacto which is the actual globalization event. I would appreciate if anyone could suggest a good journal or journals that discussed empirical analysis of the globalization-health outcome nexus.
Best Regards
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A google search will yield a myriad of references, eg WHO, NIH and the like. You can also go for specific discussions on nutrition outcomes and globalization. Or health outcomes and international trade. There were papers on globalization and disease, tackling SARS from around 2004.
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Around 90% of world trade in terms of volume is transported by sea, which is why port cities can be considered the gateway to globalisation. Ports are ideally equipped to develop pathways to a circular economy since they offer the space, organisation and infrastructure needed.
What are the necessary steps to facilitate the transition to the circular economy.?
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They have to re-design their structure towards sustainable parameters.
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In order to run a battery of logistic regressions I need to quantify in some way the carry trades activities. My idea is to compute the difference among the rates of the countries that will join the regression and the US rates, because much of these countries adopted a peg with the US dollar, letting plausible the eventual carry trades as interest rates start to widen.
Despite the simplicity of this approach I'm not able to find any solution. The time series of IMF are too short for what concerns the countries of interest, and I can't afford expensive data provider such as Global Financial Data etc. Furthermore, even the BIS Central Banks target interest rates time series seems to be completely useless, as the dataset includes heterogenous rates which are clearly uncomparable because of their different maturities (tell me if I'm wrong).
In order to overcome these difficulties I'have thought to compute the differences between target countries deposit rates and US lending rates, data are provided by WDI. Can this approach be applicable? Am I wrong for what concerns BIS database?
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For data, try Bloomberg. To overcome the problem of fixed exchange rate regimes, try effective exchange rate.
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(Note: ResearchGate questions does not have any comments feature. I am unable to directly respond to individual answers below because there is no commenting feature available. Please do not ask me to respond, there is no way for me to do so.)
With an app-based marketplace platform, like Uber Eats- there are three user types:
  • Vendors who sell their products (e.g. restaurants, stores)
  • Customers who place orders. (e.g. b2c, b2b)
  • Service providers who deliver products or support the platform (e.g. photographers)
The platform then takes a percentage commission on all of the the transactions between the different users. For example, the platform takes 20% on the customer's order, and they take a 10% commission on the service providers' wages (e.g. delivery charges).
I am interested to learn about alternative business models for marketplace platforms that provide these kinds of services. And I'm interested to learn about case studies around the world where different models have been tested and are used.
As an example, a government could set up such a platform as a utility and invite local vendors and customers to use the platform. The government would try to recoup only their base costs, instead of running the business as a for-profit business.
Can you share references to research into fair trade platforms, or related topics?
Thank you
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Maybe you'll be interested in reading my latest paper on sharing economy
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Certainly, the commercial environment has been affected due to Covid 19, in which those who think that the effects are positive have contributed to the development of the commercial environment, and on the other hand, there are those who believe that trade has been negatively affected.
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Unemployment, inflation, high trade deficits, eviction risks, volatility in stock market, overall, a grim outlook for the economy.
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Hello, I’m doing work on Thirlwall’s law and I need to check Marshall-Lerner, it is assumption of the model. There are many methods and I’m confused which one is better to use.
I tried one: using OLS I regressed trade balance on country’s GDP, world’s GDP and real exchange rate and looked at sign of coefficient of real exchange rate, which should be positive if condition is met, according to some article.
But I got negative sign which is not statistically different from zero. So condition is met or not? Or should I use another approach?