Science topic

Stock Markets - Science topic

All about the market economics of booms and busts, bubbles, crashes, investment and returns.
Questions related to Stock Markets
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
2 answers
Hi Folks, I have been strongly with my data, trying to figure out how to gen my crash risk varaible through the NCSKEW method. First of all let me explain my data. My dataset is observations from two years (2019 and 2020) and in each year, each observation is observe only once. I used the average daily price of the stock market Y to compute the return (log Ri = log P1/p0) of firm X on the stock market Y. in addition, because the RM in the dataset was on yearly frequency, I also converted them on daily freqency by dividing each stock market RM on the number of trading days in each year accordingly, and then the average value was log given (log RM). After that I further convert them (daily frequency) in weekly frequency by using the command "ascol logRi, toweek returns(log) " to convert firm x daily return to weekly return and "ascol logRM, toweek returns(log)" to convert stock market Y daily return to weekly return which created respectivelly the variable week_logRi and week_logRM. However, I failed to gen my crash risk variable and will apreciate your assistance and guidance to solve this issue. following the data and commands used bysort ID (Year) : gen t = _n xtset ID t ascol logRi, toweek returns(log) keep(all) ascol logRM, toweek return(log) keep(all) bysort ID (t) : gen F1week_logRM = F1.week_logRM bysort ID (t) : gen F2week_logRM = F2.week_logRM bysort ID (t) : gen L1week_logRM = L1.week_logRM bysort ID (t) : gen L2week_logRM = L2.week_logRM reg week_logRi F2week_logRM F1week_logRM week_logRM L1week_logRM L2week_logR
predict double e, residuals
Error message is given below
reg week_logRi F2week_logRM F1week_logRM week_logRM L1week_logRM L2week_logRM
no observations
r(2000);
. predict double e, residuals
last estimates not found
r(301);
Attached the data
Many thank in advance for your assistance and guidance
Relevant answer
Answer
Dear Jan H Jansen , many thankls for your comment and willing to help. My question is how to correct the error message that can be seen below the question. But I supposed to added that I also run the reg command excluding the two variables with F2 and L2 and the results was the same with error message. So I though probably there should be a problem with my command and I am looking forward if you could check them and guide me accordingly. Another question is, in my specific case, do you have any suggestion of the command to use to gen the number of weeks (N)?
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
6 answers
Please suggest a good research topic of time series related to stock market data. What could be a good problem to work on?
Relevant answer
Answer
Dear Jabar Saleem,
The analysis of the time series of data concerning the pricing of listed companies' shares on the stock exchange in the context of selected macroeconomic, mesoeconomic and / or microeconomic factors can be carried out multidimensionally and with the selection of those determinants of the impact on the stock exchange situation that have been recognized at a given moment and for a given exchange market as key. Taking into account the current economic and other conditions, I propose the following topic for the thesis concerning the analysis of the valuation of shares of listed companies on the stock exchange in the context of selected factors influencing the stock market situation: macroeconomic country in the context of the global economy, taking into account the current economic problems, i.e., e.g. rising fuel and energy prices, rising prices of individual categories of other production factors and the change in the profitability of economic processes of the analyzed listed companies, increased pro-environmental awareness of customers and adding to the mission and development strategy sustainability and green economy, possible problems with the supply of technology companies with semiconductor-based microprocessors, which is a derivative of the SARS-C coronavirus pandemic interrupted oV-2 (Covid-19) of international supply and sourcing logistics chains and the post-pandemic increase in demand for microprocessors and the recovery of economies in 2021 from the pandemic economic recession of 2020. In addition, the analysis of these exemplary impact factors should be carried out in microeconomic terms for selected listed companies against the background of the sectoral (mesoeconomic) and macroeconomic approach (the entire national and global economy). For the mesoeconomic approach, the key sector and industry determinants of impact showing strong correlations with the shaping of the valuation of shares of companies representing the selected sector of the economy should be selected. On the other hand, for the macroeconomic approach, it is worth considering the key macroeconomic influencing factors which have had a strong impact on economic processes in recent years and have significantly changed the levels of economic growth in the country as compared to the global economy. The scope of considering the factors influencing the global economy should be a derivative of the scale of international trade and the international flow of production factors, including financial (investment and speculative) capital. Considering the recent years, this type of macro-determinants can include: the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic, anti-crisis interventionist economic policy programs applied during the pandemic, individual instruments of fiscal and monetary policy, pandemic economic recession 2020, economic recovery from the recession in 2021, an increase in inflation, an increase in fuel and energy prices, a possible energy crisis, etc. Conducting this type of verification of the correlation of the valuation of shares of listed companies on the stock exchange with the macroeconomic situation of the country in the context of the global economy, taking into account the current economic problems, will allow to answer to the question: Is the stock exchange still the so-called a barometer of the condition of the entire economy? This question relates to theses that suggest the existence of this type of correlation and are quoted in many textbooks on the functioning of capital markets, including securities markets, and their role in modern economies.
Kind regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
3 answers
There has been an extraordinary spurt in tech stocks. Though they have the best growth potential, however they also have very high risk to return ratios. From Amazon.com, Inc to Advanced Micro Devices Inc, Broadcom Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Visa Inc, Tesla, Inc (USA), TCS, Infosys (India), Weibo Corp (China), Wisetech Global, Atlassian (Australia), they all live up to the reputation as a tech stock. So my question is on finding a suitable metric only to evaluate tech stocks since there are many ways' of evaluating including Price Earnings Ratio, Internal Rate of Return Method, Free Cash Flow Model, Sales Multiple or a combo of these with something else?.
Relevant answer
Answer
Hi,
You can also use growth rates for evaluating tech stocks.
Here are some more ideas:
the P/S ratio, beta, net income growth, free cash flow growth, market cap, R&D expense growth and SG&A to revenue.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
11 answers
One that can be accessed online (preferably for free). I'm based here in the Philippines so I can't really directly communicate with the concerned agencies.  
Relevant answer
Answer
Tickdata.com has such data, but it won't be for free.
The CME also has and sells historical data.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
5 answers
As part of a term paper with the research question whether the next stock market crash is inevitable, I have to create an empirical part.
In order to answer the research question, the S&P 500 Index will be compared to various market parameters (e.g. inflation rate, S&P 500 PE Ratio, Federal Funds Rate, etc.) and a relationship (positive/negative) or no relationship will be determined. This will be done for the period 2006 to 2009 and 2020 to 2022 and then compared. Since the data is metric and not linear, I am unsure which method of data analysis is most appropriate.
Could you help me?
Relevant answer
Answer
Dear Jana,
You may explore cointegration techniques (linear/nonlinear). Wavelet analysis is also a good candidate.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
1 answer
Hi,
I am looking for sources which have a time series / historical revenue data of private companies in the USA (those that have not gone public on the stock market).
I have a list of around 2000 firms that were founded in 2010-2015 and have company headquarters in the USA. I am looking to match these firms to the revenue data for the time period 2010-2020.
COMPUSTAT only has public companies.
Crunchbase and PitchBook have only cross-sectional data.
Thanks!
Relevant answer
Answer
The sales and profit data of private companies (partnerships) are not public and are intended exclusively for the owners of the company. In Germany, however, one can try to obtain anonymous company data from DATEV, for example, which of course cannot be assigned to individual companies.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
10 answers
effect of futures market on the stock market development and effect of both on macroeconomic indicators
Goal: Basically i wanted to see the causal pathway or casual relationship between the futures market, stock market and macroeconomic indicators. so please suggest the papers or some more objective regarding this research topic
Relevant answer
Answer
Under the background of the big economy, these two markets have a mutual linkage. Commodity futures prices reflect the future price of goods, the price trend is actually reflected in people's expectations, and the futures price is due to expectations, so we can find the future price of the spot.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
5 answers
I have never had interest in stocks (shares). I need further enlightenment to inform my decision to invest in the stock market.
Relevant answer
Answer
A stock is a type of investment in a company. Companies issue stock shares to raise money in order to finance operational needs and to fuel growth, and investors buy those stock shares for the opportunity to generate a return on their investment.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
5 answers
Dear all, I have a problem to find historical data (daily closing price and trading volume for some stock markets index)... I need to download it From paid databases like eikon datastream, bloomberg..can enyone have a paid database help me?
thanks
Relevant answer
Answer
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
5 answers
In the file that I attached below there is a line upon the theta(1) coefficient and another one exactly below C(9). In addition, what is this number below C(9)? There is no description
Relevant answer
Answer
I asked that question to the person who code that package, and he said C(9) coefficient does not have any meaning here, just ignore. It comes up because the package is written for the old version of Eviews and has not been updated that is why.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
7 answers
Dear All,
I’m conducting an event study for the yearly inclusion and exclusion of some stocks (from different industry sectors) in an index.
I need to calculate the abnormal return per each stock upon inclusion or exclusion from the index.
I have some questions:
1- How to decide upon the length of backward time to consider for the “Estimation Window” and how to justify ?
2- Stock return is calculated by:
(price today – price yesterday)/(price yesterday)
OR
LN(price today/price yesterday)?
I see both ways are used, although they give different results.
Can any of them be used to calculate CAR?
3- When calculating the Abnormal return as the difference between stock return and a Benchmark Return (market return), The market (benchmark) return should be the index itself (on which stock are included or excluded) ? Or the sector index related to the stock?
Appreciate your advice with justification.
Many thanks in advance.
Relevant answer
Answer
Hi there, I am using Eventus software and I am wondering how the software computes the Market index in order to calculate abnormal returns?
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
11 answers
i have to compute the average return of Nifty-50 Index of indian stock market for the financial year april,2016 to march,2017.
i calculated daily returns and took the average of the daily returns. but, it is just 1.34% because, abnormal positve and negative returns during the period
How to prepare a smoothened series of nifty returns and to compute year average of the index.
thanks in advance
Relevant answer
Answer
I've been trading stocks with no criteria. Hopefully it will still work.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
30 answers
Why is the importance of analyzing and conducting research on the correlation between the stock market valuation of securities (stocks, bonds, etc.) and the economic and financial situation of business entities growing?
In recent years, the importance of examining the correlation between stock market valuation of securities (stocks, bonds, etc.) and the economic and financial situation of business entities is growing, because there are more and more anomalies and speculations on capital markets, which may reduce these correlations. The importance of studying this issue is growing particularly when in certain listed markets valuations of certain financial assets and instruments are less and less related to economic fundamentals and the significance of speculation is growing. If such a lack of correlation between the stock market valuation and the economic and financial situation of business entities is growing, then the financial and / or economic crisis may occur. Such a situation of increase in speculative factors on stock exchanges and commodity exchange commodity markets appeared in 2006-2008 and contributed to the global financial crisis in 2008.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:
Why is the importance of analyzing and conducting research on the correlation between the stock market valuation of securities (stocks, bonds, etc.) and the economic and financial situation of business entities growing?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
Relevant answer
Answer
Dear Nazir Ali,
Yes, you asked a key question in the context of the topic of this discussion. Typically, it is in the event of an exceptionally large overvaluation or undervaluation of market valuations of listed securities that these kinds of questions are asked.
Thank you very much,
Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
28 answers
I propose the following research topics in the field of behavioral finance operating on securities markets:
Analysis of the correlation of changes in the market valuation of securities on the stock exchange with the economic and financial situation of the issuer's company and external factors such as:
- changes in interest rates of central banking and commercial investment instruments offered by banks,
- changes in the level of income of individual stock investors,
- business cycle in the economy and in the sector in which the company operates, issuer of securities,
- increase in the importance of technical analysis in the face of fundamental analysis in a situation when the share of stock exchange investors using computer programs used for technical analysis increases,
- increase in the importance of stock exchange transactions concluded by computerized transaction systems working on behalf of investment banks, including transactions that last for a short period of time, sometimes a few seconds or part of a second, but for large amounts of funds,
- securities and brokerage houses run by the stock exchange and individual issuers, advertising and image campaigns on the occasion of the public offering of a new issue of acacia or corporate bonds or in other situations,
- change of the state's economic policy, change of the tax system regarding investment in securities, eg by introducing or reducing tax on capital income,
- change in the ratio of investors from foreign exchange investors to domestic investors in connection with the activities of international rating agencies, funds and investment banks.
In view of the above, what other interesting research topics do you offer in the field of behavioral finance operating on securities markets?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
Relevant answer
Answer
Dear Vivek Pandey,
Thanks for your suggestions for research topics in the field of behavioral finance. The topics are interesting and developmental. In terms of the behavioral consequences of blockchain integration in financial transactions, interesting research can be carried out on improving the security of transactions.
Thank you very much,
Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
12 answers
I need to test short and long run relationship of macro economic variables and stock market performance.
Relevant answer
Answer
It is interesting that all answers give recommendations for methods without asking about the specification of the model and which variables shall be used.
That is not econometrics, but only metrics without any economic content.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
4 answers
Hi Everyone,
i would like to ask what is the appropriate method to transform the high frequency tick-by-tick stock market transaction data to continuous data
Thank you in advance
Relevant answer
Answer
Thank Prof Peter Learner
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
3 answers
I am doing a project where i need to check how news affect peoples interaction with emails sent from a non profit organisation. I am not sure where to find data for this. Is there something like classified data? should i just use the stock market and create dummies? Do you have any suggestions? I am volunteering on this project and i am quite lost in this part. Thank you :)
Relevant answer
Answer
It is text classification data. A simple coding example via MATLAB is https://au.mathworks.com/help/deeplearning/ug/multilabel-text-classification-using-deep-learning.html
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
3 answers
Respected Researchers
I need Emerging Stock markets Index in Asia data for my research during COVID. Kindly help me.
Thanks
Lingaraja
Relevant answer
This is a big database. You may find it at your university's library or any other institution's library. Individuals cannot afford the subsription fees for this database.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
4 answers
Please suggest such topics whose research is not yet done.
Relevant answer
Answer
I think these links will help you to come up with good and recent topic in finance
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
3 answers
In my current research, I'm trying to describe the thinking of the people during the financial crack of 1929 in the united states, mainly in the times where the stock market bubble began its gestation.
Relevant answer
I think the following book will help you out in this regard:
The normal personality: A new way of thinking about people.
S Reiss - 2008 - psycnet.apa.org
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
5 answers
Good evening everyone,
I am conducting a study on the impact of covid-19 in the stock market. For this, I need to calculate the covid-19 variable. In my literature, mostly covid-19 was calculated as total number of confirmed cases, log(total number of confirmed cases) or daily percentage change in total number of confirmed cases. But I didn't understand what did they mean by confirmed cases - daily new cases, cumulative cases or something else. Please share your knowledge and experience. I will be very thankful to you.
Relevant answer
Answer
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
3 answers
I'd really appreciate it if you could perhaps talk about how the topic relates to stock market efficiency and investment decisions.
Relevant answer
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
8 answers
A more in-depth explanation would be greatly appreciated.
Relevant answer
Answer
After Pfizer announced that its COVID-19 vaccine had a 90 per cent success rate last week, equity markets instantly stopped and changed course. Stocks like American Airlines and AMC, which had been battered by the pandemic, were all of the sudden given new life by a sudden influx of money, while the so-called “stay at home” stocks suddenly had the wind taken out of their sails (Zoom had a brutal week). This rapid change of events left “quant” investors picking up the pieces of what had just happened. Events like these were supposedly so rare that “writing out the chances of occurrence on any given day required a 16-digit number — followed by 63 zeroes.”
Reference:
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
13 answers
hello,
currently i am doing an analysis on a research with the topic "role of stock exchange markets," and i have these two variables which i can't find its measures. one is domestic turnover ratio and the other is liquidity (stocks), and the only available data that i have are turnover, trading volume, closing prices and shared issues of the companies. my Main question is how can i measure those variables using these datum that i have acquired?
Relevant answer
Answer
Liquid markets are generally perceived as desirable because of the multiple benefits they offer, including improved allocation and information efficiency. They (i) allow a central bank to use indirect monetary instruments and generally contribute to a more stable monetary transmission mechanism; (ii) permit financial institutions to accept larger asset-liability mismatches, both regarding maturity and currency, thus fostering more efficient crisis management by individual institutions, and reducing the risk of the central bank having to act as lender of last resort for solvent but illiquid credit institutions; and (iii) render financial assets more attractive to investors, who can transact in them more easily.2 The latter benefit, however, may not be true for investors collectively. As Keynes noted (1936, p. 160): “For the fact that each individual investor flatters himself that his commitment is “liquid” (though this cannot be true for all investors collectively) calms his nerves and makes him much more willing to run a risk.” Therefore, recent crises in financial markets, in particular, have triggered studies on how to better judge the state of market liquidity and ideally to better predict and prevent systemic liquidity crises.3
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
5 answers
Managerial analysis, as qualitative analysis, is the most valuable tool in decision making which applies to every institution. Several qualitative indicators can jointly produce some guiding indications to evaluate the management soundness. The managerial analysis using qualitative characteristics and various other factors of the organization provides the true picture of the context and the reality of the ongoing phenomena in the real place.
Relevant answer
Answer
It’s the People behind a company who can make it or break it. A great company could be brought to its knees by a bad management. An obscure company could become prominent, by a good management.
So, yes, when analyzing businesses, I do give a high weight to management. There are innumerous examples of companies with a great management, which turned out to be multibaggers.
But having said that, other key factors — particularly the sector, the company’s business model and balance sheet — all play important roles in determining in which direction the company goes in future.
If at all I were to assign weights they would be:
  • Management 30%
  • Sector 25%
  • Business model 25%
  • Balance Sheet 20%
Hope this helps.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
8 answers
Reasons for low level of market participation and portfolio diversification
Relevant answer
Answer
Dear Winfrey
Stock market participation is a widely discussed phenomenon in finance-related fields Activities and academic literature, and relatively large differences in the participation rate of stock markets in specific countries have not been explored to a large extent. Although many scholars have elaborated on the relevance of financial knowledge related to stock market participation and the importance of the latter, the participation rate is still quite low. The academic community seems to agree with the fact that an individual’s financial knowledge is It is important in predicting the degree of participation in the stock market. In addition to the generally low stock market participation, the mystery of stock market participation is also related to large cross-country differences. Although the participation rate of the stock market has increased over time, huge differences in the participation rate of countries still exist. To this day, the puzzles involved in the stock market are still relatively incomplete. Although its importance has been proven, scholars still cannot fully and reasonably explain the relatively low stock market participation rate and the difference in stock market participation rates between countries. Traditional research mainly focuses on the personal characteristics of stock market participation. When a country’s social connections decline, financial literacy becomes a more important determinant of stock market participation. This means that it is particularly interesting for policymakers in countries with low social ties to invest in improving their country’s financial knowledge. Compared with similar growth in financial knowledge in countries with very close social connections, this investment will generate a relatively large increase in stock market participation. In addition, increased participation in the stock market will ultimately benefit society.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
34 answers
What kind of scientific research dominate in the field of Analysis of the effectiveness of stock exchange markets?
Please, provide your suggestions for a question, problem or research thesis in the issues: Analysis of the effectiveness of stock exchange markets.
Please reply.
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
Relevant answer
Answer
Dear Chia-Lin Chang,
Yes of course. The currently used automated trading systems used by institutional investors are based on analytical models that use the latest achievements in the implementation of statistics and econometrics in the field of finance.
Thank you, Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
15 answers
Does the information policy of the public relations department of a capital company issuing securities (shares, bonds, ...) may affect the market valuation of these securities on the stock exchange?
If there are certain situations confirming this impact, should it be considered a imperfection of the information system?
If there are certain situations confirming irregularities in the information policy of issuers of securities or banks and investment funds that mediate in the sale of securities, whether the information policy of the issuer of securities should be corrected to reduce the likelihood of attempts to deliberately mislead potential investors, shareholders, bondholders and other participants in the capital markets?
Please reply
Best wishes
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
25 answers
What kind of scientific research dominate in the field of Security of the financial system?
Please, provide your suggestions for a question, problem or research thesis in the issues: Security of the financial system.
Please reply.
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Dear Friends and Colleagues of RG,
The issues of risk management in the context of determinants of the global financial crisis, globalization processes, technological progress and other factors I described in the publications:
I invite you to discussion and cooperation.
Best wishes
Relevant answer
Answer
Dear Aref Wazwaz,
Thanks for the link to the publication describing interesting issues of financial systems security.
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
5 answers
I read some papers, they highlighted that geomagmetic storm events influences the stock market?
Relevant answer
Answer
Well, you can read just about anything somewhere. Are you reading a reliable source?
Here is my response to this question about stocks and geomagnetic activity, published in Barron's:
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
56 answers
What kind of scientific research dominate in the field of global financial crisis?
In my opinion, globalization is leading to the Integration of Business Cycles.
In this way, globalization may deepen economic crises, including the global financial and debt crisis. An example was the global financial crisis, which appeared in mid-September 2008.
At that time bankruptcy was announced by one of the largest investment banks in the world.
As a result of unreliable credit risk management procedures, billions of USD of financial losses have been generated.
It turned out that the unwritten rule no longer works, that "big can not fall". However, it is the emergence of ever larger international corporations and financial institutions that is one of the main determinants of the processes of economic globalization that have been progressing in recent years these processes continue.
(The continuation of these considerations can be found in the comments below).
Do you agree with my opinion?
Please reply
I conduct research in key aspects of this issue. The results of these tests are described in the following publications:
I invite you to discussion and cooperation.
Best wishes
Relevant answer
Answer
Interesting question
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
10 answers
I am generating a regression model using daily frequency data and most of the independent variables have missing values in non-working days but the dependent variable is daily frequency with no missing values. What approach should i take?
Relevant answer
Answer
For the week-day non-working days I would choose to interpolate. For student purposes, I think the method is not so important (MA, mean, linear trend, etc). For weekends, even God proposed to rest. So I suggest working only for 5day week. Prof.
George Stoica
's above comment is very useful.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
8 answers
I am currently preparing a thesis project about the gap between the real economy and the stock market in US.
One of the facts that contributes to widen the gap is that more than 20% of S&P500 is composed by the big 5 tech companies - Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Facebook and Microsoft - and large returns in these shares distort the index looking like the overall companies would be also providing large returns.
Is it interesting to test the effects of these 5 shares in different indexes such as the FTSE, Nikkei, DAX or the Shangai Index?
I wanted to understand if these companies are not only distorting the US stock market, but if they are also having a significant impact in other stock indices.
Relevant answer
Answer
Dear Manuel Galarza;
Thanks for sharing this interesting topic.
An opportunity to exchange information and expand our knowledge.
Best Regards.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
3 answers
Dears researchers,
I just need your quick insight on what secondary variable(s) should I choose to adequately capture the retail investor participation in stock markets?
I would highly appreciate your quick responses possibly with references.
Thanks in anticipation
Thayyib
Relevant answer
Answer
The expected growth in the earnings base, The discount rate, which is itself a function of inflation. The perceived risk of the stock.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
8 answers
The stock market prediction is a vibrant and exciting topic around the globe due to its ability to mint money with its magical prediction possibilities and furthermore rewarding academic appreciations associated with it.
But what is the feasibility of having a FUTURES* (derivative) prediction mechanism in place?
There is wide-ranging literature out there featuring Stocks, Indices and options. Why are there no articles related to futures market prediction, if there is a possibility let me know your insights.
Futures are restricted by their expiration. But, if that can be predicted, the chance of earning a handsome return is wide open as per the limited knowledge I possess.
Relevant answer
Answer
As per my predictions, Nifty will be around 15000 in the next year and the share market will go as high as 52000 in 2021. ... Market will go high as 2021 will proceed further. The share market in the last two months of 2021 will be at the peak.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
32 answers
Does economic globalization have a significant impact on the development of international financial systems and on the operation of supranational capital markets?
Is the globalization of information related to the growing share of the Internet in the global dissemination of information on the situation on financial markets also related to economic globalization?
What is your opinion on this issue?
Please reply
Thank you very much
Dear Friends and Colleagues of RG
The issues of globalization of financial and banking systems are described in the publications:
I invite you to discussion and cooperation.
Thank you very much
Best wishes
Relevant answer
Answer
Financial flows would tend to suggest that the degree of internationalization of financial markets has increased over recent years to reach levels broadly comparable to those seen in the period of marked financial market integration which preceded World War I. As mentioned at the outset, however, quantities alone cannot be a good indicator of globalization because the law of one price may still not apply when cross-border financial flows become more widespread.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
165 answers
Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG,
At present (mid-March 2020), capital markets continue to dominate emotions, i.e. psychology of financial markets over cool, fundamental analysis. Due to the increasing scale of human infection with Coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 causing COVID-19 disease, the risk of further infections increases rapidly. Since the number of coronavirus infections is still rising rapidly in many countries, the impact of the epidemic on the economy will be very high on the global economic growth rate. The World Trade Organization has announced that a growing epidemic in many countries, on almost all continents, may already be referred to as a coronavirus pandemic. The level of uncertainty regarding the scale of the negative impact on economic processes is very high. There are no precise measures that can be used to measure the level of impact of a growing pandemic on the scale of the forecasted decline in economic growth in the global economy and in the economies of individual countries. It is only certain that this impact will be large. Many transport and tourist companies will go bankrupt. Many hotels, companies offering services related to tourism, catering services, entertainment services, cinema etc. will have serious financial problems in the coming weeks and months. In many countries, governments are launching anti-crisis financial support programs for enterprises that are already reporting declining sales revenues and have financial problems due to the development of the coronavirus epidemic. In many countries, however, the possibilities of anti-crisis economic policy of offering low-interest loans or non-repayable grants to enterprises are limited because, in many countries, after the previous global financial crisis of 2008, there are still high public debts charged to public finances. Therefore, in the context of an expanding coronavirus pandemic over the next few weeks or months, the scale of the negative effects of coronavirus on the global economy may increase significantly. Unfortunately, no one is able to accurately estimate the scale of these negative effects. The inability to quantify new risk categories causes a high level of uncertainty. Uncertainty also applies to investment decisions taken by investors and shareholders operating on financial markets, mainly capital markets, including securities markets. For three weeks now, there has been a stock crash on the largest and many smaller stock exchanges, a panic sale of shares. The price of a barrel of oil is also falling. Equity and oil prices are currently the lowest since the previous global financial crisis. The problem is getting worse fast. The scale of stock price reductions on stock exchanges may suggest a strong break in the upward trends in previous years and may mean a change to a long-term, lasting for many months or maybe many years downward trend, a slump in the valuation of securities and many other assets valued on capital markets. Therefore, the following question becomes relevant: Can a coronavirus pandemic trigger a global economic crisis in 2020, including a recession lasting weeks or months in many countries?
Due to the increasing scale of human leaf infection with coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 causing COVID-19 disease, the multi-faceted impact of epidemic development on the economy, including the situation on financial markets, is increasing. In this regard, I propose a discussion on the following topic:
Impact of coronavirus on economics, including economic growth rate and financial markets.
Over the past two weeks (end of February / beginning of March 2020), the scale of sharp decreases in the valuation of securities shares on the stock exchanges and a fall in the price for a barrel of oil acquires the characteristics of a stock crash. In addition, there is a significant decline in the production of many product ranges made in China, etc. The Swiss franc is rising against some of the other economically more popular currencies. Revenues and profits in the tourism sector are falling strongly in many countries. Can this situation be interpreted in terms of signals suggesting the possibility of another global economic crisis in 2020? Can a strong sell-off of stock prices on stock exchanges still last in the following days? Could this mean a change in the long-term long-term upward trend to a downward trend and the bust on the stock markets that lasted for many months?
In this connection, the following further important question arises: What anti-crisis Keynesian socio-economic policy should governments of countries develop to counteract the deepening scale of the economic downturn, including the significant decrease in orders for various product ranges, raw materials, decrease in production, potential rapid increase in unemployment, a decrease in income and consumption? What instruments of entrepreneurship activation should be developed as part of anti-crisis socio-economic policy? Currently, a particularly important issue to be resolved is the answer to the question: Can a strong sell-off of stock prices achieving the characteristics of a stock market crash similar to that of the stock market crash, from which the global financial crisis began in mid-September 2008, lead to the loss of financial liquidity and bankruptcy of many enterprises? Such a negative scenario would be realized, i.e. if a large global company or financial institution declares bankruptcy, it would be another significant impulse to continue the sharp decline in the valuation of shares on the stock exchanges and then it would be in the full sense of the crash the beginning of another global economic crisis.
In such a situation, central banks' intervention would also be necessary to ensure liquidity in the financial sectors. In recent days (beginning of March 2020) the US central bank, i.e. the Federal Reserve Bank, reduced interest rates, however, this has not caused significant calming of investors operating on capital markets. Calming activities of central banking are fully justified because the reactions of investors operating on financial markets, including mainly capital markets, are already becoming panic, the advantage of psychological fear of potential financial losses, although it is not yet known how large these losses can be. Below I have described my proposals regarding anti-crisis, Keynesian socio-economic policy, which governments of individual countries should develop in order to counteract the developing economic downturn in individual countries and the emergence of another global economic crisis.
A lot of economic data and the situation on financial markets indicate that coronavirus may be the main driver of economic growth in the global economy in 2020. A significant decline in economic growth is forecast in many countries in 2020 due to an increase in human coronavirus infection. According to many healthcare centers and institutions, an effective, tested coronavirus vaccine may not appear until mid-2020 or later. Until then, the number of coronavirus infections may increase significantly. In China, many companies have stopped production due to an increase in coronavirus infection. In many countries, tourist traffic is already falling, the number of tourists is rapidly decreasing. Countries in which international tourism constitutes a significant share of Gross Domestic Product are particularly vulnerable to the decline in economic growth. A significant decrease in international trade is also forecast in countries where many cases of human coronavirus infection have been diagnosed. In recent days (beginning of March 2020) there have been major drops in the valuation of securities on stock exchanges, which is also a signal confirming the forecasted next wave of decline in economic growth in 2020. Until recently, in 2019, the so-called trade wars conducted between the largest economies of the world, i.e. between the USA, China and the European Union. However, this factor is apparently already becoming less relevant to the global growing problem associated with the continuing (early March 2020) increase in human coronavirus infection. Therefore, in 2010, coronavirus will be the most important factor slowing down economic growth.
Due to the growing problem of coronavirus in 2020, economic growth will significantly slow down globally and in many countries. Since the end of 2018, the pace of economic growth has slowed down in many countries due to the so-called so-called major economies run by major economies, including Trade wars. Contrary to the concept of free, market, international capital flows and goods, products and services within cross-border trade, barriers imposed by individual countries, e.g. in the form of prohibitive duties, generate a global slowdown in economic growth. In recent months, another significant factor has appeared that increases the scale of the forecasted economic slowdown in 2020. This factor is the growing problem of coronavirus, because of which many factories in China have ceased to operate, income from tourism is falling, from tickets in cinemas and other mass events in countries where the most cases of coronavirus infection have been diagnosed. Therefore, the importance of planning and implementing pro-development, anti-crisis, Keynesian socio-economic policy is growing.
My research suggests that perhaps credit risk management procedures and systems have already been optimally improved, and now commercial banks mainly deal with the improvement of IT systems, cybercrime, data transfer on the Internet, and development of electronic internet and mobile banking. Over 10 years have passed since the appearance of the global financial crisis in September 2008. For several years, the economies of many countries have already returned to post-crisis balance, to optimal levels of economic growth. The situation on the stock exchange markets has also improved significantly after a few years since 2008. Recently, however, more threats and factors are slowing down the economic growth of the global economy. These factors currently include the so-called trade wars waged between the largest economies of the world, including primarily the US, China and the European Union, and the growing problem (currently beginning of March 2020) of the increase in coronavirus infection. For these two reasons alone, a significant decline in economic growth is forecast in many countries and globally in 2020. As a result, the economic and financial situation of many enterprises will deteriorate.
For example, the economic and financial situation of enterprises producing mainly for export and tourism companies may deteriorate significantly. If companies are in the process of paying back loans and their finances are burdened with a high level of debt, then there is a possibility of an increase in financial liquidity risk and an increase in systemic credit risk, i.e. not timely repayment or suspension of repayment of bank loans. Are commercial and investment banks prepared for this possible negative scenario? Did the banks, after negative experiences from the global financial crisis of 2008, improve their standards and procedures for managing credit risk and do not have to fear a significant slowdown in the economic growth of the global economy in 2020?
Since the end of 2018, there have been symptoms of a slowdown in global economic growth. In 2018-2019, the so-called so-called trade wars waged between the largest economies of the world, including in particular the US, China and the European Union. However, at the beginning of 2020, another important determinant appears to be the continuation of the slowdown in the global economy's economic growth, i.e. the development of human coronavirus infection. At the moment (early March), many economic data indicate that the two factors mentioned above will significantly reduce the rate of economic growth in the economies of many countries. Currently, mainly in China, production has stopped in many factories. A significant drop in economic growth is expected in 2020 in China. As a result, the scale of international economic exchange will fall. The level of economic growth in the global economy may drop significantly. Whether the already noted significant scale of the slowdown in the global economic growth may cause serious financial problems in some large enterprises, corporations and / or financial institutions in 2020. Can the currently forecast decline in the economic growth rate of the global economy cause a large decrease in sales revenues and a strong increase in the level of liquidity, debt, investment risk, etc. in many business entities and financial institutions, commercial banks? Is it possible in 2020 to declare bankruptcy of a large corporation or a large bank, which could trigger the emergence of another financial and / or economic crisis? Is this highly likely or rather unlikely? Have credit procedures and credit risk management processes been improved in banks after 2008 and the risk of another financial crisis occurring is low or rather high?
In the last week of February 2020, stock exchanges experienced the largest, most strong and dynamic drops in share prices since the stock market crash of mid-September 2008, i.e. the stock market crash from which the global financial crisis began. The stock market crash of mid-September 2008 was triggered by the bankruptcy of the fourth largest investment bank in the world, a bank with over 100 years of Lehman Brothers history. Are the strong declines in stock prices from the end of February 2020 a symptom of the onset of a major, medium or long-term stock market downturn and a significant deepening of the decline in global economic growth in 2020?
In addition, it has recently been discovered that melting glaciers have released many new types of viruses that have been frozen in glaciers for millions of years. In addition, recently the World Health Organization indicates that in recent years many new strains, types of viruses and bacteria for which there are no drugs have been created. This is due to the fact that in the situation of widespread use of certain types of drugs, bacteria become resistant to antibiotics. Is the significance of natural medicine growing in this connection? How to protect yourself against infections of new types of viruses and bacteria? In addition, there are also economic effects. Due to the development of coronavirus infections in China, production was stopped in many factories. A significant drop in economic growth is expected in 2020 in China. As a result, the scale of international economic exchange will fall. The level of economic growth in the global economy may drop significantly.
Currently, there is basically full agreement of researchers and scientists on the need to increase entrepreneurship activation and innovation in many countries, both developing and highly developed. Systemic, state-run activation of entrepreneurship and innovation is one of the objectives of interventionist, anti-crisis, national socio-economic policies. However, many studies show that the mere increase in financial resources from the state budget does not ensure high efficiency of the process of distribution of these subsidies and loans and does not ensure high efficiency of the entire policy of activating innovation and entrepreneurship. Therefore, how should the institutions and processes of distribution of grants and loans be improved, which aim is to finance the development of new micro-enterprises, new innovative start-ups and more innovative development or research projects implemented also by other types of business entities?
Activation of entrepreneurship is one of the objectives of interventionist, anti-crisis, national socio-economic policies in the situation of deepening recession in national economies. Currently undergoing trade wars, including additional barriers imposed to reduce international trade are causing a decline in economic growth in many countries. In addition, the development of human infection with coronavirus will also contribute to a significant decline in global economic growth in 2020. Therefore, the importance of pro-development, interventionist economic or socio-economic policy of the state is growing.
As part of a more pro-development, interventionist economic or socio-economic policy, the state should act as an investor financing from the state budget funds investments in the development of public goods infrastructure in strategic business sectors, i.e. investments in the development of communication, road and bridge infrastructure, energy and security , construction, etc. In this way, new jobs are created, citizens' incomes increase, consumption increases and the effect is an increase in production and improvement of economic growth. In this way, thanks to a more pro-development, interventionist economic or socio-economic policy, the state helps the economy recover quickly from the phase of economic slowdown and / or from the phase of the economic crisis.
In recent years, the importance of planning, shaping and implementing pro-development socio-economic anti-crisis policy, which will provide an antidote to the forecasted slowdown in economic growth, has been increasing. Public policy, including social policy should ultimately aim to meet the needs of citizens. In countries where a prosocial democratic system works efficiently and thus the participation of citizens in shaping public policy enables the design and implementation of such public policy as citizens and voters expect. However, not always planned as a pro-social public policy is properly conducted by the government. This can happen in the situation of a significant global recession, i.e. a strong slowdown in the global economy's economic growth, which has a significant negative impact on economic processes in a given country. However, the extent to which economic growth will slow down in a given country depends on many domestic factors, such as the level of public debt of state finances and the deficit in the central budget of the state.
In addition, the level of domestic productivity, investment, unemployment, citizens' incomes, consumption, inflation, interest rates, etc., which directly and indirectly determine the financial, material, housing etc. of the citizens is also important. The state, having the instruments of pro-development economic policy, tries to activate economic processes, activate entrepreneurship, innovation, investments, etc. so that the economy develops effectively and citizens receive high remuneration, to improve the material and financial situation of citizens, etc. citizens expect this and in a country with a democratic system they choose a government that implements just such a plan to shape pro-development socio-economic policy to build a state of economic and social well-being. In a state of economic and social well-being, citizens should feel happy. In the publications available on the Research Gate portal I described the instruments of pro-development socio-economic policy on the example of the Family 500 Plus Program and the Flat Plus Program (Mieszkanie Plus Program). I invite you to cooperate in the study of this issue.
In my scientific work, I also examine the issues of specific concepts of pro-development housing policy as an important element of anti-crisis socio-economic policy. I am investigating the impact of the Flat Plus Program conducted in Poland for 4 years as an important instrument of pro-development housing policy on the activation of economic growth, including the creation of new jobs, improvement of citizens' housing, improvement of the housing situation and as an instrument whose long-term goal is to be to counteract the processes of demographic change society defined as aging of the society. Research shows that in many situations, economic problems cause social problems and vice versa. Accordingly, social and economic problems are interdependent. Key social problems in many countries include the poverty of a significant proportion of the population, i.e. low income for some citizens. Poor income, material, financial, housing, etc. situation of citizens is associated with poverty. In addition, high levels of poverty are often associated with low levels of education, high levels of unemployment, low consumption, lack of financial savings, limited access to many basic services offered by both commercial enterprises and those offered by public sector institutions. Therefore, the high poverty scale of a significant part of society is a factor limiting the country's economic development. In such a situation, within the framework of social and socio-economic policy, the State should support citizens in order to reduce the scale of poverty in society. I described this type of socio-economic policy in my publications on the example of the Family 500 Plus Program and the Flat Plus Program (Flat Plus Program) used for 3 years. I invite you to cooperate in research on this subject. In addition, other social problems also include negative processes for the economy of changes in the demographic structure of society, i.e. aging of the society. Social problems also include an increase in school violence and youth crime, an increase in the use of certain categories of drugs, etc. The state incurs high costs in programs to combat the negative effects of these social problems, e.g. in cases of accidents caused by people under the influence of drugs, intoxicants . It is necessary to conduct prevention and prevention programs consisting in raising public awareness through social campaigns conducted in various media, including new online media and social media portals. This is necessary because all these social problems generate high costs for the state and contribute to the slowdown of economic development.
In view of the above, it is important to define the main strategic challenges that are implemented as part of long-term economic policy. Strategic goals to be achieved should be defined in each developing country, i.e. goals that will be implemented over a period of several or more years. Strategic goals include mainly development projects whose task is e.g. to improve communication and technological infrastructure, and to develop systems that provide citizens with security in various categories, including, e.g. diversification of energy sources and gathering the necessary resources of production factors for the development of industry in subsequent years . The implementation of large developmental infrastructure projects that improve land, air and other communications, transport logistics, electronic communications and energy infrastructure, etc. on the one hand, improve the conditions for the functioning of citizens in the economy as well as create better conditions for the development of enterprises and thus economic growth.
As part of shaping socio-economic policy, the state may adopt as strategic goals to achieve improvement in living conditions, improvement of the material, financial and housing situation of citizens as a minimum for a few years. In this way, the scale of leaving the country by young, educated people who go to more developed countries in search of an interesting, better-paid job. The improvement of living conditions, the improvement of the material, financial and housing situation of citizens is also a pro-development, pro-economic and anti-crisis factor for the national economy, because then consumption increases, which generates an increase in production on the domestic market. The implementation of this type of strategic goals of the state was described on the example of pro-development, interventionist and anti-crisis socio-economic policy programs conducted for over 3 years. In my publications available on the Research Gate portal, I described the principles and strategic goals of implementing and implementing socio-economic policy programs such as the 500 Plus Program and the Flat Plus Program (Flat Plus Program). The key strategic, long-term goals of these programs are to improve the material, financial and housing situation of citizens to the extent that the fertility rate in families is successively increased, and thanks to these pro-development socio-economic policy programs to counteract the adverse processes of rapidly changing demographic structure of the society involving the aging of the society . Other types of strategic goals planned to be implemented on a multiannual scale in many countries include reforms of the energy sector consisting in replacing classic energy sources based on burning minerals with renewable energy sources. Unfortunately, these pro-ecological strategic goals in some countries are implemented to a very limited extent.
I described these issues in my scientific publications on the example of pro-development programs of active socio-economic policy currently used with good results, which is part of the program package referred to as the Plan for Responsible Development, i.e. the Family 500 Plus Program and the Flat Plus Program (Flat Plus Program). In addition, maintaining a high quality standards in the field of financial system security, credit risk management, financial transaction procedures and customer service at financial institutions, including commercial investment banks, is a key issue for maintaining long-term high economic growth in the long term. I have also described these issues in my publications, which are available on the Research Gate portal. I invite you to cooperation.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
I conduct research in this area. The conclusions of the research I published in scientific publications that are available on the Research Gate portal.
In view of the above, I am asking you the following questions:
- Is the importance of natural medicine due to the fact that bacteria become resistant to antibiotics?
- How to protect yourself against infections of new types of viruses and bacteria?
- To what extent can coronavirus lead to a significant slowdown in the growth of the global economy?
- In which countries can we present examples confirming the existence of correlations between the long-term ongoing processes of changes in the demographic structure of the society and economic growth, as well as between the applied Keynsian, pro-development socio-economic policy and the change in the demographic structure of the society?
- What instruments of long-term pro-development Keynesian socio-economic policy are used to revive economic processes, improve income, material and housing situation of citizens, which also results in an increase in consumption, improvement of economic conditions in life and often also an increase in fertility and changes in the demographic structure of society?
- Do the Family 500 Plus and Flat Plus program significantly increase the country's GDP?
- Do you think that the Family 500 Plus and Flat Plus Program as key socio-economic policy programs significantly increase the country's GDP?
- Do you think Family 500 Plus and Flat Plus programs are mainly social or investment in the context of long-term, long-term socio-economic policy?
- Will these programs, after their many years of use, contribute to a significant increase in fertility and thus slow down the economically unfavorable progressing process of changes in the demographic structure of the society referred to as aging (and thus reduce the risk of a strong future increase in the deficit in the financial of the participatory pension system operated by the Institution) Social Security)?
- In your opinion, how many years should these programs still be conducted as part of an active socio-economic policy so that it is possible to fully objectively diagnose their real effectiveness in terms of slowing down, stopping the aging process of the society and assessing the scale of the investment function of these programs in macroeconomic terms?
- How should coordination of the system credit risk management process be conducted in central state institutions managing budgetary and monetary policy in order to avoid a financial crisis?
- How should the pro-development Keynesian socio-economic policy be conducted while maintaining a high level of security of the financial system?
- How should the credit risk management system be improved at the macroeconomic level in the context of the state conducting a specific pro-development, Keynesian socio-economic policy?
- Is it possible to conduct integrated pro-development socio-economic policy and stimulate economic growth through effective coordination of fiscal and monetary policy?
- How should one improve the conduct of integrated pro-development, Keynesian socio-economic policy and activation of economic growth?
- What kind of pro-development economic policy should the government use as an antidote to slowing economic growth?
- Will coronavirus be the main source of economic slowdown in 2020?
- To what extent may the level of economic growth in the global economy drop in 2020 due to the development of coronavirus infections?
- Will coronavirus become a more important factor in economic slowdown in 2020 than the so-called trade wars?
- Are countries forecast to decline in economic growth in 2020 due to an increase in coronavirus infection?
- Can the situation of strong price declines over the last two weeks (end of February / beginning of March 2020) be interpreted in terms of signals suggesting the possibility of another global economic crisis in 2020?
- Can a strong sell-off of stock prices on stock exchanges still last in the following days? Could this mean a change in the long-term long-term upward trend to a downward trend and the bust on the stock markets that lasted for many months?
- In connection with this, the following next important question arises: What anti-crisis Keynesian socio-economic policy should governments of individual countries develop to counteract the deepening scale of the economic downturn, including the significant decrease in orders for various product ranges, raw materials, decrease in production, potential rapid increase in unemployment, decrease in income and consumption? What instruments of entrepreneurship activation should be developed as part of anti-crisis socio-economic policy?
- Currently, a particularly important issue to be resolved is the answer to the question: Can a strong sell-off of stock prices resulting in a stock market crash similar to that of the stock market crash, which started the global financial crisis in mid-September 2008, lead to the loss of financial liquidity and bankruptcy of many enterprises?
- Is central bank intervention also necessary to ensure liquidity in the financial sectors?
- Do you conduct scientific research in this field? If so, I invite you to cooperation.
- Can a coronavirus pandemic trigger a global economic crisis in 2020, including an economic recession lasting many weeks or months in many countries?
- What do you think about this topic?
- What is your opinion on this topic?
Please reply.
I invite you to discussion and scientific cooperation.
Thank you very much.
Best wishes.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Relevant answer
Answer
It is already happened
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
10 answers
What kind of information in the field of financial market psychology is in your opinion the most important, which should be taken into account when conducting technical analyzes of the valuation of securities listed on the stock exchange in order to achieve the best results from investing activities?
Please reply
Best wishes
Relevant answer
Answer
The impact of what is known as the psychology of the financial markets was seen during the initial phase 1 of the pandemic. When in March 2020 the World Health Organization announced the state of a global epidemic, i.e. the state of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic, then there was a strong sell-off of stocks and commodities on commodity exchanges. The stock market crash resulted from the predominance of investors' fear and uncertainty about the situation in the markets and the economy. The aforementioned crash was characterized by a large amplitude of decline in stock exchange indices, but it was relatively short-lived. The declines in indices were halted as central banks cut interest rates. At that time, the situation in the markets calmed down and the trends were reversed from downward to upward.
Regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
21 answers
Exactly want to know the ways and variables to measure the impact of Covid-19 on the Stock Market.
Relevant answer
Answer
More than 200 countries are suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting both the health and economic sectors in the world economy. The Dow Jones and Standard & Poor’s showed that the share values of corporations in the U.S. dropped by 20% since mid-March 2020.
Indeed, the effects of covid-19 still not clear.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
9 answers
Is it better to have a Lot of bitcoins compared to rather having a lot of paper money or savings at the bank ? Thoughts
#cryptocurrency #money #bank
Relevant answer
Answer
Actually many people are using cryptos now to store the value of their money or assets. However, I think cryptos are not good always to store the value because of the volatility.
kindly see the the documentaries of (Plot) YouTube channel in the YouTube, they are talking more about this.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
16 answers
Since the early 80's, inflation started a downward slide that took it from mid teens to 0.
Over this period the world went through political, economic and financial crisis, stock market bubbles, geopolitical shifts in economic power and a pandemic but the trend remained unperturbed.
In 2021 markets are now betting on a return of inflation. What are the fundamental changes that could support these expectations?
Relevant answer
Answer
Agree with the views of Prof Sudhir Yadav and Zbyšek Šustek
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
18 answers
I have been collecting the daily data for the Islamic stock market index in the largest Muslim population. I plan to investigate the performance, volatility, and determinant of the Sharia stock index during several events, such as Covid-19, global financial crisis, etc. Besides, I would like to compare them with the conventional stock index from G-7 countries.
If anyone is interested in this topic, especially those who have experience running the panel regression and volatility test model such as ARCH, GARCH, etc. Please let me know, and we can discuss further.
Best regards,
Budi
Relevant answer
Answer
Very good topic. I am interested but I am busy now.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
42 answers
I need to do an OLS regression on a dataset with stock index returns. To control for the Monday- and Holiday effect I need to add dummy variables. An other study that did the same regression described this as follows:
"𝐷𝑡={𝐷1𝑡,𝐷2𝑡,𝐷3𝑡,𝐷4𝑡}t,Dt={D1t,D2t,D3t,D4t} are dummy variables for Monday through Thursday, and 𝑄𝑡={𝑄1𝑡,𝑄2𝑡,𝑄3𝑡,𝑄4𝑡,𝑄5𝑡}Qt={Q1t,Q2t,Q3t,Q4t,Q5t} are dummy variables for days for which the previous 1 through 5 days are non‐weekend holidays."
Let's consider that there is no trading on Tuesday May 1, because of a non-weekend holiday, how do I correctly use the dummies? Which dummy from Q1t through Q5t has to be used for Wednesday May 2 or are there also dummies needed for Thursday May 3 and Friday May 4? Do I only need one dummy for Wednesday or do I need to add more than one dummy for the next days after Tuesday May 1?
I am new with this kind of regressions, so I do not know how to use this.
Can somebody maybe help me? Thanks in advance.
Relevant answer
Answer
A dummy variable should be to control for any qualitative difference. If the stock market is closed for the weekend, a dummy variable indicating that would be sufficient. If there are qualitative differences between different weekends, or between a holiday and a weekend, two dummy variables may be used
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
7 answers
Hi!
Im doing a research paper on the effect of currency changes has on the stock market of four countries. I need some guidance on how to best check if volatility from the FOREX market transmits to the stock market and the other way. I can't find any good guides on how to do this in practice on eViews using both GARCH and EGARCH. Lets say i want to test if Brazilian Real has an effect on the Main index BOVESPA. In other words if there are any volatility transmission from Brazilian Real to BOVESPA.
Should i have BOVESPA as mean equation and then Brazilian Real under the variance regressors?
Thank you.
Relevant answer
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
4 answers
I am planning to undertake an empirical study on inflation and stock market volatility.
I have monthly inflation and PE ratio data.
My kind question is how do I use the GARCH model?
I have PE ratio data for five firms that are in an Agricultural sector.
Can I use
1.QGARCH model for each firm?; and
2. Is it possible to have just one model to estimate the volatility of all the firms and inflation?
Relevant answer
Answer
Since you are using pe ratios, a portfolio of pe ratios under one model would be difficult to interpret, so you would be better off estimating separate QGARCH for each of the five firms. A model with 5 QGarch equations would entail cross-correlations.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
4 answers
Hi! Is there any one working on Fibonacci tools? Related to any topic... I would require some assistance for analysis related to the stock market
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
3 answers
I conducted a study to investigate stock market reaction to equity issues announcement and i ended up with 64 announcements and i then used the announcement day returns as my DV and investigated the effect of corporate governance using 8 variables in the model. However, the number of observations came down to 34 firms based on data obtained. How can i justify my regression results given this scenario? Please help me.
Relevant answer
Answer
i will update you shorlty
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
5 answers
I just want to make use of the educated women force in India to make use of the stock market opportunities in India. Kindly let me know how to make a finance research to bring out that solution.
Relevant answer
Answer
It is a good question
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
5 answers
I am in pursuit of my PhD in the study of how movements in stock markets can be predicted using Fibonacci Retracements.
I humbly request anyone who has a hands on experience on the analytics aspect to assist me. Thank you.
Relevant answer
Answer
Interesting work. Will be following.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
10 answers
Standard Deviation is the difference between the true closing price and the average price or average closing price.
Relevant answer
Answer
Standard Deviation is the difference between the true closing price and the average price
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
3 answers
I have stock price data(Open, high, low, close), I want to do prediction by combining two different models like CNN with others. Dataset will be same, what are the ways that I can use for combining models?
Relevant answer
Recent Advances in Stock Market Prediction Using Text Mining: A Survey
By Faten Subhi Alzazah and Xiaochun Cheng
Submitted: March 8th 2020Reviewed: March 24th 2020Published: June 1st 2020
DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.92253
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
32 answers
Has the scale and instances of dissonance increased since the 1970s, and the disparity between the macroeconomic situation and the economic situation of a particular national or global economy, including economic growth, etc., and the situation on capital markets, including securities markets?
The above discussion inspired me to the following considerations: Well, since the development of the deregulation process, the increase in the globalization of financial markets, the introduction to the financial markets of many derivatives without full supervision by financial supervision institutions, i.e. since the 1970s the frequency has increased and the scale of emerging financial and economic crises in various parts of the world. At the same time, perhaps the business cycles are increasingly influenced by the monetary policy of central banks and fiscal policies of governments mainly of the world's largest economies. The result may be a growing discrepancy, a growing disproportion between the macroeconomic situation and the situation of a particular national economy or global economy, including economic growth, etc., and the situation on capital markets, including securities markets.
What do you think about this topic?
What is your opinion on this topic?
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:
Has the scale and instances of dissonance increased since the 1970s, and the disparity between the macroeconomic situation and the economic situation of a particular national or global economy, including economic growth, etc., and the situation on capital markets, including securities markets?
Please reply
I invite you to discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
Relevant answer
Answer
Thank you for your detailed analysis.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
5 answers
One of the properties of complex adaptive systems is inherent order. It means that system can be orderly even without central control. According to Prigogine,1967, Holland,1998, and Kaufman,1995., self-organization is the key idea in complexity science. For example, termites build the largest structures on earth, yet there is no CEO termite. Similarly, there is no central controller for the stock market, the Internet, or the food supply of the big cities. However, anyway, I wonder myself, is there central controller for stock market, the Internet, or the food supply of big cities? What do you think?
Relevant answer
Answer
In the ideal case, there should not be a central controller of stock markets, the Internet, and the society. All should be running according open and clear rules. Simple enough to grasp and being capable to remember, yet producing desired emergent properties.
Think about the cellular automaton "Game of Life" emergent entities/properties arising from them. Think about self-organized criticality describing 'avalanches' in stock markets.
But. But some people are cheaters, psychopaths, and sociopaths. They will try to break those rules. Some of them. They did so. They do so. And they will be doing so.
Hence, you end up with policing your system. The question is what happens when the policing force gives up and becomes a disruptor of the system on its own.
The whole thing becomes a multilayered game on police and thieves.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
4 answers
I am having a difficult time finding entry literature regarding the topics above. Would be thankful for any good suggestions.
Thank you.
Relevant answer
Answer
Characteristics of stocks that frequently hit price limits: Empirical evidence from Taiwan and Thailand
Price stabilization, international trade and national cereal stocks: world price shocks and policy response in South Asia
Investment performance of common stocks in relation to their price‐earnings ratios: A test of the efficient market hypothesis‏
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
3 answers
Quick response is highly appreciated.
Thankyou.
Relevant answer
Answer
That's what the videos are for
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
22 answers
Now a days, some confusion is there....The fundamental analysis is being questioned as in various economies it has been observed that economy is not performing good, but still the stock markets index is moving up, Why So. It seems that Stock Market index moves ahead of the economic happenings ,however, related to that
Relevant answer
Answer
In some emerging markets, the stock market is not representative of the economy. If the stock market represents all the companies in the economy, it should depend on the economy- through earnings and earnings is reflected in GDP calculation. Interest rates affect earnings, stock market and economic performance.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
1 answer
Hi!
i am trying to model the human developtment index towards different factors of the stock market to see if it has any significant effect on human development. the variables i use are:
Explanatory variables:
Stock market capitalization as % of GDP, listed domestic companies, stock traded total value as % of gdp and turnover ratio in % of domestic shares
Control variables: public health expenditure % of gdp, terms of trade, fertility rate and labor force particpation rate.
the data is panel data with 59 countries between 2000-2017. the hausman test suggested that i use fixed estimators.
the question itself:
the unit root test computing shows that all variables are stationary in level except PHS(public health expenditure) and terms of trade, how do you procced from that? is it ok to have independent variables in first difference and dependent variable in level?
question regarding the unit root:
which unit root test is to be prefered? if i would take the common unit root(levin, lin chu) all the variables are stationary in level but individual unit root tests shows 2 of them as stationary in first difference.
Relevant answer
Answer
You have mentioned that you have panel data structure. Hence, Levin, Lin and Chu test is appropriate rather than testing individual unit root. As per you, all variables are I(0) or stationary at level following Levin, Lin and Chu Method so, better to apply suitable panel regression on raw data rather than differencing any variable.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
3 answers
I have obtained a sample of the stock market dataset attached here, Thus, could anybody help me to find the source of this data ?.
Thanks in advance.
Relevant answer
Answer
Thank you Dr. Muhammad. Could you help me more, please? or we can work together, because I need the same dataset, where, I already have finished the paper
00905511999708
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
7 answers
I have a stock market index based on US dollar and want to convert it into Malaysian ringgit. How I can change the currency of an index series? Thanks
Relevant answer
Answer
Are the stock markets index as the S&P 500 quoted in dollars?
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
9 answers
I'm looking at stock market data. Some daily observations are missing. What is the best way to deal with missing observations?
Relevant answer
Answer
here the regular trading days start from Monday through Friday .
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
35 answers
Could you know what are Historical diseases / pandemics in the past reflected on Global economy and Financial markets in the past?
like Spanish influenza that spread in 1918 and reached peak in 1920 impacted on the global economy?
There were another pandemics in the past had significant impact on the global economy and/or financial markets ?
There were many and many pandemics (e.g., Ebola, SARS 2003, H1N1, .... etc)
So, which one or more of them have significant impact on Economy / financial market even globally or in specific countries (i.e., SARS 2003 impacted on China's Economy)
Kindly, Let's share and discuss
Thanks in advance
Ahmed
Relevant answer
Answer
The Spanish flu has a detrimental impact on the economy. Swine flu, although considered an epidemic instead of a pandemic, has an adverse effect on USA economy. Basically pandemics and epidemics resulted in deaths and unemployment which led to a reduction in consumer spending and thus an imminent decline in economics performance.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
23 answers
Does the global financial crisis of 2008 still have significant importance on capital markets attributed to behavioral psychology of the behavior of investors operating in these markets?
Are the determinants of behavioral investors' factors still strong in recent years on the largest stock exchanges in the world, including the importance of financial market psychology in interpreting changes in stock exchange trends in these markets?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
Relevant answer
Answer
The sharp economic downturn and turmoil in the financial markets, commonly referred to as the “global financial crisis,” has spawned an impressive outpouring of blame. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH)—the idea that competitive financial markets exploit all available information when setting security prices—has been singled out for particular attention. Like all successful theories, the EMH has major limitations, even as it continues to provide the foundation for not only past accomplishment, but future advances in the field of finance.
Despite the theory's undoubted limitations, the claim that it is responsible for the current worldwide crisis seems wildly exaggerated. This essay shows the misreading of the theory and logical inconsistencies involved in popular arguments that EMH played a significant role in (1) the formation of the real estate and stock market bubbles, (2) investment practitioners' miscalculation of risks, and (3) the failure of regulators to recognize the bubbles and avert the crisis. At the same time, the author argues that the collapse of Lehman Brothers and other large financial institutions, far from resulting from excessive faith in efficient markets, reflects a failure to heed the lessons of efficient markets. In the author's words, “To me, Lehman's demise conclusively demonstrates that, in a competitive capital market, if you take massive risky positions financed with extraordinary leverage, you are bound to lose big one day—no matter how large and venerable you are.”
Finally, behavioral finance, widely considered as challenging and even supplanting efficient markets theory, is viewed in this article as complementing if not reinforcing efficient markets theory. As the author says, “it takes a theory to beat a theory.” Behavioralism, for all its important contributions to finance literature, is described as not a theory but rather “a collection of ideas and results”— one that depends for its existence on the theory of efficient markets.... Ball, R. (2009). The global financial crisis and the efficient market hypothesis: what have we learned?. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 21(4), 8-16.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
9 answers
I have a sample of 9 listed banks, over the period 2005-2018. I want to calcule the stock market volatility for each bank over the studied period. How to do so?
Relevant answer
Answer
GARCH, EGARCH, MGARCH, PGARCH, T GARCH are the tools thorugh which you can calculate the volitality of individual banks.
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
13 answers
The study of the functioning of securities markets is particularly important in the context of the analysis of the effective functioning of modern economies. It is particularly important to limit the systemic investment risk and strengthen the instruments of financial supervisors to reduce the likelihood of further global financial crises.
In view of the above, I would like to ask you: Analysis of the functioning of securities markets?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion
Relevant answer
Answer
Dear Hazim Al Dilaimy, Anatolii Solovev, Er Sir Dr Soumitra Kumar Mallick, Thank you very much for participating in this discussion. Thank you for the proposed interesting issues in the field Analysis of the functioning of securities markets?
Thank you very much for the sent suggestions of interesting topics, research issues, etc. related to this issue.
Thank you very much and best regards, Have a nice day,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
9 answers
In a situation where the amplitude of short-term strong changes in valuations of securities, including shares and bonds on securities markets, is increasing, the situation of extreme reappraisal of these valuations is more frequent and the risk of a spectacular, sharp discount, bear market and stock market crash increases. And such violent stock market crashes began with major financial and economic crises.
The largest economic crises lasting a few years were the source of many negative macroeconomic processes, decline in host growth, consumption, investment, and an increase in unemployment. There were large social costs, productivity dropped, tax revenues to the state budget, the state of public finances deteriorated.
Paradoxically, in the situation of increased financing needs for new development projects, which should restore optimal economic growth, in the situation of an economic crisis, the possibilities of financing new investment projects based on public funds were decreasing. The source of this type of economic crises is the lack of a full correlation between the valuation of assets on stock exchanges and the processes of productivity and consumer demand for manufactured economic goods.
In addition, after analyzing the sources of the global financial crisis of 2008, the erroneously pursued monetary policy by the largest central banks, including in particular the Federal Reserve Bank, is added to the sources of this largest financial crisis in the history; moral gaming practiced by investment banking trading in securities used to finance mortgage loans for borrowers without creditworthiness; imperfect credit risk management systems for derivatives or unreliable practices, non-compliance with security procedures for credit risk analysis and control, and many other factors in investment banking.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Best wishes
Relevant answer
Answer
نعم وارد جدا مع ازدياد الإصابات بالفيروس على الصعيد العالمي
  • asked a question related to Stock Markets
Question
4 answers
Do economic recession and financial crisis alter the effect of monetary policy on bond and the stock markets liquidity? If so what are the transmission mechanism?
Relevant answer
Answer