Questions related to Risk Analysis
I'm replicating Fama-French five factor mode. I have formed factor portfolios. I'm not sure how to the average monthly percent excess returns for portfolios. In other words, I want to get the Table 1 in their paper.
Thanks in advance
The cause-specific hazard model and the Fine-Gray subdistribution model are well known methods of competing risk analysis, but both assumes proportional hazards. Is there any method of handling competing risks that does not assume that? A google search didn't turn out very useful. Would be especially grateful if the specified methods have a Stata implementation too! Thank you in advance
Although there are many mathematical approaches to model epistemic uncertanties in risk analysis, it is very unusual. What you think about that?
I am trying to understand the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping for Urban Risk Analysis. However, I have no idea how to organize my collected data in Excel Dataset or SPSS Dataset to analyze them for Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping. I am focusing on Disaster impact and its causal relationship with other variables.
Please help me to understand the data organization process in Excel Dataset or SPSS Dataset. I know these maps can be created by FCMapper or Mental Modeler.
Thanks in advance
Do you have any suggestions on articles that discuss risk analysis and risk management aimed at safety in the workplace?
Thank you all.
Are credit rating agencies currently reliably assessing the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions, including issuers of securities?
One of the factors that generated a high scale of negative aspects of the global financial crisis in 2008 was the practice of unreliably carried out assessments of the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions, including issuers of securities and certain financial instruments offered to individual clients by commercial banks. Have the financial supervisory authorities developed effective instruments to enforce the reliability of credit risk analysis procedures in investment banks and rating agencies? Do financial systems work more effectively than in 2008? Do credit rating agencies reliably carry out an assessment of the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions?
Please, answer, comments.
I invite you to the discussion.
The scientific journals that are needed are:
- Earth sciences.
- Hazard and risk analysis
I have EC50 and LC50 values and wanted to calculate PEC for different species in water. I have currently considered acute risk with an assessment factor of 100 based on a previous similar publication. Please advise.
I am trying to use Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool for a systematic review. But I couldn't figure out how to use the tool to score a single study.
Can someone who previously wrote systematic reviews and have risk analysis data share with me?
thank you so much
I am using the moments-based approach to calculate the risk premium of growing a specific crop. As proposed by Chavas (Kim and Chavas,2003 and Chavas et al,2009) I used CRRA risk preference. Then incorporate moments (variance and skewness) into the equation used by Antle (1987). I got a problem as variance and skewness are in large numbers (into the power of 10^7 sometimes) the calculated risk premium is a huge number. I guessed that there is something wrong here. Can anyone suggest of a source of information of the detailed risk calculation using the moments-based approach?
gerne wollte ich in unserer Projektgruppe GPW Young Crop Science das Thema "Kooperation" aufgreifen. Ich finde es sehr wichtig, dass man sich untereinander austauscht und - falls es thematisch passt - auch Kooperationen mit Kollegen aus anderen Instituten/Universitäten innerhalb und außerhalb von Deutschland eingeht. Man gewinnt an Erfahrung, lernt viel Neues und oft entsteht am Ende auch eine gemeinsame Publikation - was richtig klasse ist.
Falls ihr mögt, könntet ihr - hier in dieser Diskussionsgruppe - eure momentanen Forschungsgebiete mit möglichen Kooperationswünschen posten. Vielleicht findet sich die eine oder andere Interessenüberschneidung und es entstehen im besten Fall neue Kooperationen! Das wäre doch klasse, oder?
In meinem Fall wäre ich an Kooperationen auf dem Forschungsgebiet "Ertragsstabilität & Risikoanalyse" interessiert, d.h. Bewertung von verschiedenen Anbausystemen, Düngestrategien, Fruchtfolgen, Zwischenfruchtanbau, und besonders interessiert bin ich an der Auswertung von Dauerfeldversuchen. Falls jemand Interesse hat, würde ich mich sehr über eine Nachricht freuen.
Ich freue mich auf eure Rückmeldungen!
The risk management process includes identifying risks, analyzing and responding to risks, and then escorting and controlling throughout the project life cycle. The methodology used at each stage of the risk management process is different. The question here is about the most important two stages, which are identifying and analyzing risks, and what is the difference in the methodology in these two stages?
There is no doubt that the pillars of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (for example: the Internet of Things) will play a very big role in improving and developing the performance of risk analysis techniques. In your opinion, how will this be?
Hi, I am looking for research topic (ideas) and current research trends on international business management. It will be good to have what will be future research scope on International Business Management. I am particularly interested in these ( Risk analysis, operation, project management, strategy, digital marketing, leading people ) research. But these are not limiting factor, please leave your comment, I will surely look into it. Looking forward to your answers. Regards
The website version is already available but it is time consuming to feed manually.
The software is in need very urgent. Please let me know ASAP.
I am looking for case studies of actual privacy risks. At the core of privacy and data protection impact assessments, we find the concept of 'risk' meaning - in this case - the probability of a threat to personal data and the possible harm or damage caused by this threat. E.g. I fall victim to a phishing attack and the attacker gains access to my bank account, the actual harm being that my account is emptied. Another example would be that my account at a social media platform is hacked and my identity is used to "go shopping".
Now, one finds a lot of literature on privacy (PIA) and data protection impact assessments (e.g. the edited volume by Wright and De Hert (2012) on PIA), on the potential risks of low levels of data security (e.g. Rosner, Kenneally (2018): Clearly Opaque: Privacy Risks of the Internet of Things), on technological and organization standards (e.g. ISO 27001 on Information security management), or on the regulatory frameworks of privacy and data protection (e.g. everything on the details of the GDPR in the EU). But I have a hard time to find research results evaluating actual risks similar to your risk to fall victim to a traffic accident, have your home being broken into, or get cancer.
I would welcome any hint to empirical publications on actual privacy risk analysis be it from medical, social, internet-based or any other research that you consider as most important. I am *not* looking for literature on how to conduct privacy and data protection impact assessments or standards for this purpose. Thank you.
Risk perception is the tendency for people to have different dramatically estimates of risk probability and impact given the same information. The following are the important factors that are known to impact risk perception.
Outlook, Sour Grapes, Ambiguity, False Analog, Survivorship Bias,
Mere Exposure Effect, Curse of Knowledge, Magical Assumptions and motivated reasoning
How much they affect the risk analysis and risk treatment as well as risk management strategy
For those that may not be familiar with the term, LSM is NOT a bar chart or Gantt chart. LSM is a robust production-based algorithm that greatly simplifies the visual description of project progress. It provides an easy to understand picture of key production relationships rather than mapping activity relationships as is done in CPM. Thus, it seems to be a means to measure production risk which in turn drives schedule risk. We are looking for recent research or practical applications in the literature. The team is multilingual so papers or reports in languages other than English are welcome.
I am trying to show uncertainity of total health risk of heavy metals through consumption. I konw about primavera risk analysis tools. But i how to input deta on it is a problem to me. Can anyone share it how to input dataset on it. However, want to know resemble easy free tools like primavera.. Thanks for advance.
The issue of corporate governance is very important and directly affects the efficiency of the entity's operation, the relationships between the recruiters employed at various levels of the organization and indirectly also on the relations between business entities and contractors and clients. Corporate governance is therefore particularly important in terms of the long-term development of an economic entity, also in terms of its successes in the competitive game and the holding of specific positions and shares in the markets of the sold product or service offer.
In my opinion, most parameters in the area of corporate governance research in enterprises, companies, corporations and financial institutions are the same but not all. The same are those that relate to the issues of analogous models used, concepts of managing the entire organization, personnel management, offer, marketing, innovation, relations with contractors, shareholders, clients, etc. In contrast, differences arise in terms of specific differences regarding accounting, specificity business activity, risk analysis, prudential procedures used, IT technologies that support the operation of individual departments and departments, the specificity of the work positions of the staff employed, etc.
I invite you to the discussion
Is there any scientific data analytics that one could refer to while rating risks as per ISO 14971. By analytics, I mean the probability of risks due to various hazards enlisted.
How can we validate the rating mechanism so that each of the team member has similar approach towards rating the risks.
After having long discussions with other fellow researchers and agronomists, I have yet to find an answer to this question. I've read many papers that mention positive impacts of N fertilisation in water limited environments (i.e. Barraclough, P. B., Kuhlmann, H., & Weir, A. H. (1989). The effects of prolonged drought and nitrogen fertilizer on root and shoot growth and water uptake by winter wheat. Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science, 163(5), 352-360), while others mention that this would happen in wetter areas (more than 300 mm of annual precipitation; Sadras, V. (2002). Interaction between rainfall and nitrogen fertilisation of wheat in environments prone to terminal drought: economic and environmental risk analysis. Field Crops Research, 77(2-3), 201-215). I understand that increasing the Nitrogen nutrition index of any crop would result in increased water used efficiency. Thus, if water is scarce and we can use it more efficiently by increasing N fertilisation, this would be a preferred choice.
What are your ideas on this matter? Should farmers increase or decrease N fertilisation in dry years?
I am planning to include "risk behaviour and time preference of smallholder farmers" as factors that affect their decision to adopt long-term improved soil and water conservation practices in Ethiopia. For this I need to construct simple questions which are easy to be understood by farmers. If you have any idea, please, forward it.
I have 1 independent (software development method)variable divided in two groups(agile method, heavyweight method) 5 dependent variables(satisfaction,communication,quality, risk analysis, clients demands) each variable have 1 item(scale). how can I find EFA or CFA in this case where each variable have 1 item. every item have 7 likert scale options. responses are 396. can I apply CFA on all variables togather.? please explain?
how to make an isolateable section, can anyone give example using a P&ID
There appears to be a dearth of serious analysis as to just how great a risk of terrorist attack we face. Individual research, e.g. Stewart and Mueller suggests a greatly exaggerated threat. So what is any government's response to this, have they conducted any proper risk analysis and if so, what are the results? This is vital if we are to have a serious debate on terrorism and counter-terrorism. In addition, any governmental cost-benefit analysis of security measures would be most welcome as part of the debate.
I am using SPSS and I am not familiar with the aforementioned programs. The last time I had to calculate a competing risk analysis, I had to get an appointment with a statistician.
So, I want to know if there is any possibility to calculate a competing risk analysis for instance in SPSS?
If not, can somebody tell me a quick and easy way how to perform a CR-analysis in R?
We are currently building a medical prediction platform (Evidencio) for researchers and physicians to facilitate translation of scientific articles to medical practice (www.evidencio.com). Evidencio is a platform created for and by scientists/physicians that allows for easy external validation of prediction models as well as conversion to easy-to-use online calculators for everyday practice.
Which (type of) prediction models would be most usefull for you to add to the platform? And, as a researcher/physician, would you be interested in adding your own prediction model to the platform?
how to start research in the field hazard identification and risk analysis in industry?
what are the techniques?
Bisphenol A (BPA), as well as some other bisphenols, are hormone disrupting chemicals potentially present in conventional receipts that you and I are handling every day. Recentrly we have made a study in Denmark ("Bisphenol A and its structural analogues in household waste paper", Pivnenko et. al., 2015) and showed that BPA, as well as bisphenol S (BPS), are present in concentrations up to 1.7% in conventional receipts. Are you aware of BPA (or BPS) present in receipts in your country? Could you refer to studies (published or unpublished) quantifying them? Please share your information openly or in a private message. Any help is appreciated.
I use IEEE and NEPA standard from one USA software for Arc Flash Hazard and risk analysis but I am interesting are any paper which consider in IEC standard for this mater not IEEE.
Thanks in advance
I am looking for a way to obtain absolute risk reduction, relative risks, relative risk reduction and NNT from logistic regression models based on the paper of Austin (2010 - see attached) using (preferably) a mix of Excel, SPSS and/or Mplus. I have problems applying the manuscripts content to my data. I guess I can calculate the ARR, RR, RRR and NNT with Excel; however, calculating the confidence intervals via bootstrap would be problematic. Any help with the application of the manuscript would be very welcome!
I am new to survival analysis and am having difficulty choosing how to analyze my dataset.
The background is that I have a pretty big dataset that is in essence national level statistics for a disease that includes ~22,000 subjects, with slightly over 65K observations over five years.
The 'final state' of the patients can be:
- Death (due to disease),
- Death (due to other causes),
- Completed Treatment (but did not cure),
- Fail Treatment (did not complete treatment for some reason),
- Default (Lost-to-follow up), and
- Continuing Treatment.
All told there are about ~2700 deaths, ~5000 cures, and ~7400 completed treatment patients, of course a whole lot of unknowns, and many co-variates which I can analyze (e.g. age, gender, homelessness, etc).
Most of the literature I have read about competing risks talks about competing risks of death (e.g. 1 vs 2) but not cure (#3) as an alternate endpoint.
I'd like to analyze my data comparing/contrasting aspects of both cure and death and wondered if competing risks analysis is appropriate?
I have been doing some research and couldn't find any solution to how calculate the coefficient of absolute risk aversion (CARA) and coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA).
A lot of articles and lectures in universities are always showing the formulas, (CARA=U''(x)/U'(x)) but I couldn't find a concrete example of how these were calculated.
So I was struggling to calculate my exercise:
a. Suppose a risk-averse agent is given an asset that will pay off 1 with probability .5 and will pay off 2 with probability .5. He is just indifferent between keeping this asset and exchanging it for an asset that will pay off 1.25 for sure. What can you say about his coefficient of absolute risk aversion?
Expected Value asset A E(x) = (0.5 * 1 = 0.5) + (0.5 * 2 = 1.0) = 1.5
Utility of Expected Value is = ln (1.5) = 0.41
Lower Utility for risk-averse agent = 0.5*ln(1) + 0.5*ln(2) = 0.35
Certainty Equivalent = ln(X) = 0.35 = e^0.35 = 1.42
Risk Premium = Expected Value – Certainty Equivalent = 1.5 – 1.42 = 0.08
Expected Value asset B = E(x) = 1 * 1,25 = 1,25
Arrow-Pratt measure of absolute risk aversion A = U’’(x)/U’(x) = ?
b. Now suppose instead that the same agent as in (a) is given an asset that pays off either 2 or 4 with equal probability. If his coefficient of absolute risk aversion is the same as in (a) what is the certain payoff that would leave him equally well-off as holding the risky gamble?
c. Now suppose as in (b) that the agent is given an asset that pays off either 2 or 4 with equal probability. You learn that he is indifferent between keeping this risky gamble and exchanging it for an asset that pays 2.5 for sure. What can you say about his coefficient of absolute risk aversion in this case?
Could somebody help a bit please?
We are looking for a pragmatical approach for the complete risk analysis and for the summary which is part of the regulatory documentation of a marketing authorisation.
I am using SPSS, and I don't know how to incorporate the risk (chances of someone being unemployment). PS: I am not trying to check the pattern of unemployment and education.
probability of occurrence,potential loss,The chance of error,How risk is appraised?,Hazard Identification,Exposure Quantification....
What is the proper approach or method that would help me to identify risk factors that are common to any Megaprojects? i.e. how can I develop a list of risk factors that can happen to any Megaprojects in the future?
Note: Megaprojects are large scale construction projects that cost more that $1 billion, which are very risky, complex, uncertain, unique, and sensitive towards social-environmental-economic-political aspects.
Dear all, my topic changed slightly to Financial Risk Analysis in Not-for-Profit Organisations.
Any material that is helpful will be appreciated. Also, I need the financial reports of at least four not-for-profitsFinancial report from 2010-2015.
In the risk assessment (especially fire risk) there is some agreement regarding the basic acceptable risk level - lower than the natural death level. Defined as: "the risk of one death with a probability of less than 1 per million of persons per year".
Which society has natural death level at 1*10-6? Do you know where are the roots of such definition of the acceptable risk level?
I am working on the thesis topic ''Assessment of Risk Perception and Risk attitudes among managers and individuals in non-profit organisation.''
Assuming that you have done a threat model of a certain system and identified a list of threats of each component of this system. How can the threat model be analyzed to know how the propagation the attacks through the system that harms a certain business goal? Is there any approach that is based on FTA or not necessarily that can give the business goal as a top event and nodes as threats ?
I am developing a project risk assessment model for energy projects in my country. Which free (or cheaper) web based software can help me do this more so that i expect more than 15 experts to participate in virtually scoring the risks based on probability and impact of each risk factor. The software must accommodate expert scores which must be automatically collated.
The output must enable me to see which risk factors are more riskier and then do some further quantitative risk analysis to develop weights for each risk factor which can be used on a case study?
In spite of the good intentions of the CRO in the public sector, sh/e is quite often coerced to submission through orchestrated blackmail , insults, and sometimes physical threats especially in the developing world. What is the situation in the DCs and how can the CRO be more operationally functional?
Modern societies are increasingly concerned in preventing risks that can cause unsafe events. There are even strategies that proclaim a risk-free environment by adapting a 'Zero Accident Vision'. My question is: are we, as modern societies, more capable of protecting and securing ourselves from harm and unsafe events than before, say, the 1960's? Or are we simply substituting old risks for new ones?
If there are papers available that address this question I would really like to know more about them.
I want to explain the relationship between diversification, bank risk and performance, and provide me any published quantitative papers related for this issue.
I am trying to develop a risk-based strategic planning framework for infrastructure projects, in the electricity sector.
Kindly, How to use maximum likelihood method or any other method to parametrize a mathematical model to discuss risk analysis?
I am looking for an aggregate risk measure such as beta-risk that lends itself for disaggregation into its individual underlying risks or vice versa?
I want to use this measure or method for the investment appraisal of infrastructure investments.
I am searching for a method to relate beta risk - assuming it can be calculated - to the underlying risks of a real investment such as an infrastructure investment or vice versa?
I have done a lot of reading and suspect such a method does not exist. Any thoughts or opinions?
Let's say I have an investment project such as an infrastructure investment for which I could estimate the beta in accordance with the CAPM.
The CAPM differentiates between systematic (beta) risk, which is rewarded by the market, and unsystematic (non-beta) risk, which can for the most part be diversified away and accordingly is not rewarded.
Textbooks have plenty of definitions and examples on what systematic and unsystematic risk are, but these only give one a general understanding of what it means for a risk to be potentially diversifiable. Yet, when one is confronted with an actual project such as an infrastructure investment that faces a plethora of risks such as currency risk, construction risk, policy risk, etc. I think it would be a legitimate question to ask:
What are the risks actually captured by the beta?
In other words:
Are there any methods/concepts/approaches to relate beta risk to the underlying risks of a real investment (e.g. wind farm, bridge or tunnel) or vice versa?
Why would somebody be interested in this question? Because if only beta risks are rewarded, a diligent investor should make sure to be diversified in the non-beta risks in order to not being exposed to them unnecessarily. In addition - although it is never possible to know all risks ex-ante - a mindful investor would probably want to know for which risks he or she will likely be compensated for.
Any insights or remarks with respect to the question asked would be very much appreciated.
I'm doing my study on risk assessment on every location and activities at primary schools in my state. I'm giving risk rating value based on risk matrix table. I need some articles related to this as a supporting evidence and as a comparison with other countries.
I am very interested in the latest social license to operate scientific insights for projects in the oil, gas and mining industry
1. social risk analysis :
- scientific quantitative and qualitative social (and political) risk analysis, both collective and individual
- advanced social group risk analysis
2. on stakeholder engagement
- tri-partite stakeholder engagement dynamics between state, private sector and civil society, the effect of the quality of the relation between A and B for C
- multi stakeholder mechanisms to build or restore trust in negotiation and monitoring of agreements
3. the interplay between perceived and measured risks by social actors
determining indicators to analyse and measure individual and collective group characteristics
I have been required to attend a formal course in supervising PhD-students, in spite of having 20 years of experience of such. As a way of examination, I had to give a one hour talk on the topic "Risk, perception, and mitigation of doctoral education", which was based on an extensive literature review of mine.
It surprised me to learn the strength of risk-minimization actions applied by university management (at all levels) on doctoral education.
You can view the talk at the attached link. (Skip the first minute as it is in Swedish and nothing of relevance is being said).
I would particularly appreciate comments on the following questions:
Do you recognize the situation in your University?
In your experience, are the public and the media apt on reporting on the doctoral education?
What external threats do you identify for the universities reputation w r t doctoral education?
I am interested in calculating the human health risk to exposure of PCBs, PAHs, and heavy metals in surface soil. Which approach is therefore more appropriate to use in this circumstance. Explanation of the variables in equations will be welcome.....
I am trying to distinguish between risk aversion to one's self versus risk aversion to one's employer (company) when making decisions at work. That is, does an employee assume the risks of the company as their own personal risks?
As in Italy we have not developed national depth-damage curves, it is necessary the use of curves developed in other contexts, for a flood risk analysis.
For my work I chose the Atlas Rhine curve but, maybe, there's a problem: this is based on land use maps, i.e. for mesoscale analysis, while my work is on a microscale analysis.
it is permissible to do so with the appropriate considerations?