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Risk Analysis - Science topic

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Genetic engineering, while offering immense potential for improving human health and well-being, also presents significant ethical and practical challenges. If not approached with extreme caution, it could inadvertently lead to the development of diseases or even a scenario where robots become dominant.
Here are some ways cautious genetic engineering could prevent these outcomes:
Preventing Diseases:
  • Targeted Interventions: By precisely altering specific genes linked to diseases, genetic engineering can potentially eliminate or mitigate their effects. However, it's crucial to ensure that these interventions don't have unintended consequences, such as creating new genetic disorders.
  • Gene Therapy: Gene therapy, which involves introducing functional genes into cells, can treat genetic diseases. However, it's essential to carefully select target cells and ensure that the introduced genes integrate into the genome safely and effectively.
  • Germline Editing: While controversial, germline editing (modifying genes in embryos) could potentially eliminate genetic diseases from future generations. However, this approach raises serious ethical concerns and requires rigorous safety testing to prevent unintended consequences.
Preventing Robot Domination:
  • Ethical Guidelines: Developing and implementing strict ethical guidelines for AI and robotics research can help prevent the creation of autonomous systems that pose a threat to humanity. These guidelines should address issues such as safety, accountability, and the potential for misuse.
  • Human Oversight: Ensuring that humans maintain control over AI and robotic systems is essential. This can be achieved through careful design, robust safety measures, and mechanisms for human intervention in case of emergencies.
  • Preventing Sentience: While the development of sentient AI remains a distant possibility, it's important to consider the potential risks and take steps to prevent the creation of artificial beings that could pose a threat to humanity.
Key Considerations:
  • Risk Assessment: Thoroughly assessing the potential risks and benefits of genetic engineering projects is crucial. This includes considering the long-term consequences and the potential for unintended side effects.
  • Transparency and Accountability: Ensuring transparency in genetic engineering research and development can help build public trust and accountability. This includes open communication about the goals, methods, and potential risks of these projects.
  • International Cooperation: Collaborating with international partners can help establish global standards and guidelines for genetic engineering, ensuring that research and development are conducted responsibly and ethically.
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hi, I am doing a risk analysis of a cylindrical fuselage with windows. I have applied contact interactions between the different parts, and I have applied a unit value load to a reference point, joining the displacements of that point to my figure. however, the lpf comes out constant, and does not come out as it should, as I understand that it should come out a maximum and then decrease.
attached is my load proporcionality factor plot
does anyone know what this is due to?
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Miguel angel del Castillo Can you share your Abaqus model (.inp)?
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Tradition(what has worked?), risk analysis and skin in the game.
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The political differential equation: ∂(whatever)/∂(anything)=±money. The sign depends on whether you're on the take (+) or being taken (-).
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Hi everyone,
I'm working on a project related to seismic risk analysis and I am searching for online tools that provide hazard curves and hazard disaggregation for various locations around the world.
I'm familiar with the USGS Earthquake Hazard tools. However, I'd like to explore options from other countries or research institutions.
Examples of specific tools or resources you've found helpful would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks in advance for your insights!
Sincerely
Babak Ghods
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These resources might be useful for You....You can explore the following:
1) GEM (Global Earthquake model) Hazard viewer, OPENQUAKE, R-CRISIS softwares
You can check the GEM website.
2) Sismochile: it provides seismic hazard information as well as tools for chile including hazard curves and disaggregation.
3) SED (Swiss seismological Service) Seismic Hazard map..... can check seismo.ethz.ch/eh/home
4) EFEHR (European Facilities for EQ Hazard & Risk) Hazard viewer...hazard.efehr.org/en/home/
5) South American Risk assessment (SARA) Project
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model
methodology
analysis
inputs
out puts and other related issue
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Simply, no. Pesticides comprise a very wide range of compounds, applied in many different forms and concentrations in many different places. Human exposure includes additional factors which increase the complexity of assessing a general "risk assessment". You will need to narrow the scope considerably in terms of a specific pesticide and population to attempt such a survey.
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How does one ethically deal with typos? Why? I would first follow tradition(traditional meanings), secondly risk analysis(risks of interpretation) and then thirdly skin in the game(the right to opine depends on the price the person pays for incorrectness). On a side note, those ethics lead me to negative utilitarianism for an open society. The virtues depend on enlightenment instead of goodness, thus they may be empathy, common sense, and symmetry. StimulI:
Politics:
General Ethics:
Metaphysics:
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Remember, typos happen to everyone, and it's essential to handle them with grace and willingness to correct any mistakes. When it comes to dealing with typos, here are a few ethical guidelines to consider:
1. Take responsibility: If you make a typo in your work, acknowledge it and take responsibility for it.
2. Correct when necessary: If a typo changes the meaning of your message or leads to confusion, it's important to correct it. This ensures that your audience understands your intended message accurately.
3. Strive for accuracy: Proofread your work before sharing or publishing it to minimize the chances of typos.
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Who agrees life is more about preventing tragedies than performing miracles? I welcome elaborations.
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Maybe a bit cheezy, but "preventing tragedies IS performing miracles" in my opinion. Then again, negative news are always more reported and recognized than positive news, so if if someone performs an extraordinarily good feat, they will be only awarded, if at all, for a very short time.
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Should we address physicians as Doctors and PhD holders as Doctorates? My answer: All policy is ultimately derived from tradition(survival HEURISTICs by which populations survived and then reproduced into the current ones), risk analysis(a human operates based on incomplete knowledge because knowing everything is not humanly possible. Thus humans operate based on analyzing risks), and skin in the game(paying a price for being wrong thus being incentivized to operate in a certain way that yields a certain desired result). Therefore, addressing physicians as doctors is a matter of public safety through risk analysis. By and large, as goes the common question "Is there a doctor in the room?" Asking "is there a doctor in the room?" commonly is to find out if a physician is nearby enough to deal with a medical emergency. Instead of, "Is there a physician in the room?" Thus doctor is engrained culturally to mean physician. But still, the etymology of doctor means teacher. Therefore, maybe we should address any PhD holder as Doctorate(insert last name) and any MD holder as Doctor(insert last name). Plus, sometimes the degree in of itself is known as a doctor instead of a doctorate. Therefore, why not call PhD holders doctorates?
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I tend to explain straight away that my 'Dr' if someone uses this as a title that I am not a medical doctor.
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Are disincentives the arche? How? Why?
My answer: Disincentives are highly probably the arche. How?: Any entity is more guided more by disincentives than by incentives. Why?: Disincentives may be the arche assuming the least but following the most evidence. Two other explanations for arches may be risks and or vibrations.
Source for vibrations:
Source for risks:
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Inhibitors generally have a negative effect, but few people take advantage of them for a new start
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It would be helpful for me if anyone give some idea about a probabilistic model for ship capsizing risk analysis so that I could be able to go forward for my research.
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1. What is your definition of a "ship"? I assume you are not including row boats - but you need to define the population. Is that based upon displacement, dollar value, number of passengers and crew?
2. Are you limiting this to "capsizing" - which is a rollover incident - or any sinking?
3. What sort of hull? - the issues for a catamaran are different than a traditional hull, or other hull variations.
4. Given these definitoins - you need to gather the empirical data on what has happened in the past - capsizing events per million nautical miles.
5. Then work out the theory FMEA - capsizing due to bad loading, due to hull damage (striking an object, or even shark attacks), due to rogue waves, etc (lots of etc)
6. Then work out the probabilities of these events.
7. Finally - what is the goal of your study? If you come up with this estimate - what is its use - to prevent capsizing?
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How can genetic engineering be implemented while abiding by the ethics derived from tradition, then risk analysis and finally skin in the game?
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That's really a pretty broad topic, as the objectives of genetic engineering range from improved food crop production to human diseases. It definitely needs more consideration by all researchers. But, to the point of risk analysis and "skin in the game", I'd refer to the old practice popularized in some movies of the intrepid researcher doing the tests and using the process (whether food or medicine) on THEMSELVES before anyone or anything else! If YOU don't want to take the risk of implementation, you shouldn't be asking anyone else to do so either.
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For the sake of social harmony and cohesion, I will keep my more metaphysical questions to myself and or academia, and I will try to follow the golden rule(treat others how I would like to be treated) and hope that others do the same. I will try to follow tradition, then risk analysis, then skin in the game for my ethics while obeying the legal system and upsetting people only when necessary for survival.
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What to add the golden rule, then the assessment of free riders based on the skin in the game, and then "fair" treatment of free riders.
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Greetings from the world geophysics and seismology community I am searching to find a practical, and important topic for my Ph.D. thesis. Professors and those who view this post, if they are interested in doing joint international projects between the two countries, please share your topics and suggestions with me. I will write my favorite topics for you and if possible, I would like to know your opinions sincerely *Earthquake engineering and risk analysis **Application of seismology in oil exploration and extraction ***Data science and machine learning
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I became an outsider since 1995. I worked in hydrocarbon research for almost eight years. I created original models, I didn't publish them... I probably solved the prediction of certain 'type' earthquakes. Geological interpretation plays a role in these. I would be willing to contribute if I could personally participate in the testing of my idea.
Regards,
Laszlo
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What mechanisms are adequate to effectively protect nations' critical infrastructures. I believe that it is necessary to develop new cybersecurity frameworks that take risk analysis as a solid basis for protecting them.
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The NIST Cyber Security Framework is an excellent approach to understanding defense from an attacker's perspective. It is as light weight as one wants it to be, demonstrated by its global adoption. In terms of risk management frameworks, the most important element is to conduct an analysis of the field to have information that first describes and next can be used to reduce the risk level.
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Does the application of artificial intelligence to automate credit scoring processes of potential borrowers allow to improve credit risk management processes and increase profitability of commercial banks' lending activities?
Does the application of specific artificial intelligence technologies for the automation of risk analysis processes, the execution of credit scoring processes for potential individual credit transactions, the ongoing monitoring of open credit transactions and the analysis of changes in the level of credit risk significantly allow the improvement of credit risk management processes and the optimisation of credit processes in the context of improving the profitability of commercial banks' lending activities?
Commercial banks operating according to the classic deposit and credit banking model generate revenues and profits mainly from lending activities. On the one hand, the formation of the quality of the bank loan portfolio and the level of financial results are determined by external factors, i.e. the economic situation in the economy, the economic environment of the bank's customers, borrowers taking bank loans and depositors placing their financial surpluses on bank deposits. On the other hand, the efficiency of the lending business and the development of financial results are also influenced by internal factors, which primarily include the efficiency of the credit risk management process. The credit risk management process is carried out on a stand-alone basis in terms of examining the creditworthiness of the potential or current borrower (ongoing monitoring of the loan granted) and the credit risk the bank accepts in the situation of granting a loan. The credit risk management process is also carried out in banks on a portfolio basis with regard to the entire portfolio of loans granted and by type of loan. Both in terms of the individual and portfolio risk management process, banks are seeking to improve and optimise these processes through the involvement of new information technologies and Industry 4.0. Thanks to these new technologies, banks have the possibility to transfer part of their risk management processes to the bank's internal IT systems and to offer loans also and increasingly via the Internet. Loans of relatively low amounts, consumer loans, instalment loans, i.e. mainly granted to the public, and working capital loans to businesses can already be entirely remote communication with the customer via the Internet. In the case of home and business loans, including investment loans, banks require the borrower to provide various business-related documents to carry out a creditworthiness analysis and examine a number of different economic, financial, operational, investment risk factors, etc., which can be used as a basis for the creditworthiness analysis. As a result, the process of granting these types of business, investment and housing loans, which are usually also for relatively higher amounts, is not yet fully feasible via the Internet when the process of granting these loans itself is not expected to generate high operational risks for banks. However, ongoing technological advances may also change this significantly in the future. At present, banks are trying to implement new Industry 4.0 technologies into their lending activities in order to improve and optimise their costs. The use of new Industry 4.0 technologies in banks is also determined by the need to improve computerised cyber-security systems with a view to constantly improving cyber-security. Recently, key Industry 4.0 technologies that banks are implementing into their operations include artificial intelligence, machine learning technology, deep learning, Big Data Analytics, cloud computing, Internet of Things, Blockchain, multi-criteria simulation models, digital twins, etc. Particularly new opportunities arise in terms of improving both remote marketing communication techniques, optimising banking procedures, reducing the scale of the bank's operational risks and also improving credit procedures and the credit risk management process by involving artificial intelligence in the bank's operations.
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:
Does the application of specific artificial intelligence technologies for the automation of risk analysis processes, the execution of credit scoring processes for potential individual credit transactions, the ongoing monitoring of open credit transactions and the analysis of changes in the level of credit risk make it possible to improve credit risk management processes and the optimisation of credit processes to a significant extent in the context of improving the profitability of commercial banks' lending activities?
And what is your opinion on this topic?
What is your opinion on this subject?
Please respond,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Yes, it is just a play of coding for automating such applications and obviosly enhaces every banjng related processes, such as lending, investing, crediting etc.
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I am trying to understand the fuel loads of a residential building (or any other type of occupancy) in a formal and an informal settlement. Please suggest some literature in English and possibly open-access journals.
Thanks
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Thank you. It's in Espanol. But I will use google translator. thank you.
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Hello, does anyone know how I can get the PRIAMUS software ?
The software can allow you to do the Monte carlo simulation for seismic risk analysis
Thanks in advance.
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want to the detailed information on portfolio risk and how we can analyze the risk.
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thank you Tazeen Mahat mam
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I'm replicating Fama-French five factor mode. I have formed factor portfolios. I'm not sure how to the average monthly percent excess returns for portfolios. In other words, I want to get the Table 1 in their paper. 
Thanks in advance
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The cause-specific hazard model and the Fine-Gray subdistribution model are well known methods of competing risk analysis, but both assumes proportional hazards. Is there any method of handling competing risks that does not assume that? A google search didn't turn out very useful. Would be especially grateful if the specified methods have a Stata implementation too! Thank you in advance
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I can recommend you to new safety approaches (Safety II-III) instead of traditional approaches (Safety I).
I mean you could do risk analysis and assesment with realiability engineering.
For instance "FRAM, CAST, STAMP" methods and models re some of the excellent ways of gettin understand complex systems. With this methods you could understand the all sytem and find best solution of problems and hazards.
I hope these general information could be enough for your question.
You can send me message for much more question you need. Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan
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Although there are many mathematical approaches to model epistemic uncertanties in risk analysis, it is very unusual. What you think about that?
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Use of mathematical procedures to epistemic uncertainty , this will not solve the problem of decision making, if the recipients of the information , i.e. the decision makers are not ready to revise their risk hypothesis. For example, Siddhartha R. Dalal, Edward B. Fowlkes, Bruce Hoadley (1989) and Frederik Michel Dekking; Cornelis Kraaikamp; Hendrik Paul Lopuhaa; ̈Ludolf Erwin Meester(2005) decided that there is a high probability of 81% that O rings will be damaged in the case of Space shuttle accident. Will the information five out of six rings will be damaged or probability of 81% that O rings will be damaged in the case of the launch at very low temperatures at the pre launch meeting shared, do we think that the statistical probability rate would have the same effect on the NASA decision makers?
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Dear Colleagues,
I am trying to understand the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping for Urban Risk Analysis. However, I have no idea how to organize my collected data in Excel Dataset or SPSS Dataset to analyze them for Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping. I am focusing on Disaster impact and its causal relationship with other variables.
Please help me to understand the data organization process in Excel Dataset or SPSS Dataset. I know these maps can be created by FCMapper or Mental Modeler.
Thanks in advance
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Dear Nawrose Fatemi
sa/office/%D8%A5%D9%86%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%B7-%D8%AE%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-excel-f2cfed55-d622-42cd-8ec9-ec8a358b593b
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Do you have any suggestions on articles that discuss risk analysis and risk management aimed at safety in the workplace?
Thank you all.
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Are credit rating agencies currently reliably assessing the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions, including issuers of securities?
One of the factors that generated a high scale of negative aspects of the global financial crisis in 2008 was the practice of unreliably carried out assessments of the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions, including issuers of securities and certain financial instruments offered to individual clients by commercial banks. Have the financial supervisory authorities developed effective instruments to enforce the reliability of credit risk analysis procedures in investment banks and rating agencies? Do financial systems work more effectively than in 2008? Do credit rating agencies reliably carry out an assessment of the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions?
Please, answer, comments.
I invite you to the discussion.
Best wishes
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Yes, many participants and investors operating in financial markets, including capital markets, agree that internationally operating rating agencies diligently carry out their analyzes and formulate their recommendations. In order for this state to continue in the future, conclusions should be drawn from the mistakes made before the global financial crisis of 2008.
Regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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I am looking for population exposure data for village-level risk analysis. Can you help me to get the LandScan Global Population Database?
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It is a good question
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The scientific journals that are needed are:
- Environmental.
- Earth sciences.
- Hazard and risk analysis
Thanks.
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Hi
I think sir you first seek the perspective or goal or purpose of UNDP. ...
Once cleared you will get your answer with respect to publication
For me it is a global development network which connects whole world for advocating experience and resources to help people.. Upliftment them through skill and knowledge and provide better life to them...
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Open source and easy to learn with proper documentation.
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Thank you sir. It is very useful !! S.M. Talha Qadri
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Competing risk approach and bankruptcy
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Perhaps have a look at the website of https://www.theirm.org or Cosmo framework
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I have EC50 and LC50 values and wanted to calculate PEC for different species in water. I have currently considered acute risk with an assessment factor of 100 based on a previous similar publication. Please advise.
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Hi,
I deal with human health risks, I find your question very interesting. If you have the distribution function (by agent), your median is what you refer as LC50 lethal concentration at which -- on the average -- 50% of those in the sample die). Why use a safety factor of 100 when you can use +3 sigma, +4 sigma ...? This is the easy part. The hard part is whether the responses are actually unimodal, not skewed, and so on. I would prefer to use the full distribution, show its empirical (data driven form) fit a curve to that distribution and judge what to do. The uncertainty in the right tail of the distribution is what matters. In other words, I would also be concerned with extreme outcomes (namely your 100 factor), which depends on the empirical distribution of the agent. Of course, if you are using a well-studied agent than LC50 and the 100 factor may well be justified in the literature. Eckel's point is very appropriate.
I hope I did not misunderstand the question.
Best, Paolo
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Hi,
I am trying to use Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool for a systematic review. But I couldn't figure out how to use the tool to score a single study.
Can someone who previously wrote systematic reviews and have risk analysis data share with me?
thank you so much
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In your question you do not specify what tool you are using, for what type of study. Have you already tried using ROB-2? This is the new cochrane tool to assess risk of bias in randomized clinical trials. It is at: https://sites.google.com/site/riskofbiastool/welcome/rob-2-0-tool?authuser=0
For observational studies you can use ROBINS-I.
Could you ask a more specific question? maybe I can help you
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I am using the moments-based approach to calculate the risk premium of growing a specific crop. As proposed by Chavas (Kim and Chavas,2003 and Chavas et al,2009) I used CRRA risk preference. Then incorporate moments (variance and skewness) into the equation used by Antle (1987). I got a problem as variance and skewness are in large numbers (into the power of 10^7 sometimes) the calculated risk premium is a huge number. I guessed that there is something wrong here. Can anyone suggest of a source of information of the detailed risk calculation using the moments-based approach?
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You need to research closely and compare it with the researchers' ideas
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Hallo zusammen,
gerne wollte ich in unserer Projektgruppe GPW Young Crop Science das Thema "Kooperation" aufgreifen. Ich finde es sehr wichtig, dass man sich untereinander austauscht und - falls es thematisch passt - auch Kooperationen mit Kollegen aus anderen Instituten/Universitäten innerhalb und außerhalb von Deutschland eingeht. Man gewinnt an Erfahrung, lernt viel Neues und oft entsteht am Ende auch eine gemeinsame Publikation - was richtig klasse ist.
Falls ihr mögt, könntet ihr - hier in dieser Diskussionsgruppe - eure momentanen Forschungsgebiete mit möglichen Kooperationswünschen posten. Vielleicht findet sich die eine oder andere Interessenüberschneidung und es entstehen im besten Fall neue Kooperationen! Das wäre doch klasse, oder?
In meinem Fall wäre ich an Kooperationen auf dem Forschungsgebiet "Ertragsstabilität & Risikoanalyse" interessiert, d.h. Bewertung von verschiedenen Anbausystemen, Düngestrategien, Fruchtfolgen, Zwischenfruchtanbau, und besonders interessiert bin ich an der Auswertung von Dauerfeldversuchen. Falls jemand Interesse hat, würde ich mich sehr über eine Nachricht freuen.
Ich freue mich auf eure Rückmeldungen!
Janna
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Hi
It is nice topic , i would like to kindly suggest you using AI(processing),IOT .
Regards Mehrabi
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The risk management process includes identifying risks, analyzing and responding to risks, and then escorting and controlling throughout the project life cycle. The methodology used at each stage of the risk management process is different. The question here is about the most important two stages, which are identifying and analyzing risks, and what is the difference in the methodology in these two stages?
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Risk analysis is a sequence of planning of risk management, risk analysis, risk identification and risk quantification. Risk Management incorporates risk identification and risk quantification. Risk quantification is a process to evaluate the identified risk.
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There is no doubt that the pillars of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (for example: the Internet of Things) will play a very big role in improving and developing the performance of risk analysis techniques. In your opinion, how will this be?
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Nice guidance, thank you very much.
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Hi, I am looking for research topic (ideas) and current research trends on international business management. It will be good to have what will be future research scope on International Business Management. I am particularly interested in these ( Risk analysis, operation, project management, strategy, digital marketing, leading people ) research. But these are not limiting factor, please leave your comment, I will surely look into it. Looking forward to your answers. Regards
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M M Zaman Tanim Institutional Process Improvement and Implementation
It is now seen that traditional project management from the pre-World War II is on the shelf in modern times. Many practitioners oppose the fact that there is a planning element in the projects and that it is desired to know everything from the beginning. Thousands of projects carried out in real terms have found that the traditional method works with a flawless linearity and straight logic, and that it is well understood. Many governments and companies have been thinking about improving processes and making them faster and more functional for decades. In this respect, it is inevitable for all kinds of companies to engage in a process improvement and total quality practice in order to meet the increasing needs and demands. It is now impossible for firms that act otherwise to respond to market needs and succeed. Today, many companies have personnel to think about business processes and strive to achieve excellence by improving these processes. Agile project management is an inevitable technique for companies for these reasons.
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I am looking for where I can acquire useful information from wells for an integrity project
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For risk analysis you need to use company financial reporting information.
The standards (IFRS) require all entities to publish annual financial statements.
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The website version is already available but it is time consuming to feed manually.
The software is in need very urgent. Please let me know ASAP.
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sorry, No.
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I am doing a project and I need to know what the advantages and disadvantages are for qualiitative and quantitative risk analysis?
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There are no disdvantges of either technique but there are advantages of each.Qualitative analysis is done when the objective us exploratory when you want the answer to the question why for eg if the ro is what led to the decline of the brand i should go for qualitative analysis througj twchniques like pi or focus grp or ethnography or projective techniques etc
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I am looking for case studies of actual privacy risks. At the core of privacy and data protection impact assessments, we find the concept of 'risk' meaning - in this case - the probability of a threat to personal data and the possible harm or damage caused by this threat. E.g. I fall victim to a phishing attack and the attacker gains access to my bank account, the actual harm being that my account is emptied. Another example would be that my account at a social media platform is hacked and my identity is used to "go shopping".
Now, one finds a lot of literature on privacy (PIA) and data protection impact assessments (e.g. the edited volume by Wright and De Hert (2012) on PIA), on the potential risks of low levels of data security (e.g. Rosner, Kenneally (2018): Clearly Opaque: Privacy Risks of the Internet of Things), on technological and organization standards (e.g. ISO 27001 on Information security management), or on the regulatory frameworks of privacy and data protection (e.g. everything on the details of the GDPR in the EU). But I have a hard time to find research results evaluating actual risks similar to your risk to fall victim to a traffic accident, have your home being broken into, or get cancer.
I would welcome any hint to empirical publications on actual privacy risk analysis be it from medical, social, internet-based or any other research that you consider as most important. I am *not* looking for literature on how to conduct privacy and data protection impact assessments or standards for this purpose. Thank you.
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This is a great question, and inspired to me to look for some quantification of the risk and probability of data breaches and harm. Found the following reports which may be of interest. They are largely from security companies and insurance companies, which would have access to this kind of data and might need data like that to set insurance policies.
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Risk perception is the tendency for people to have different dramatically estimates of risk probability and impact given the same information. The following are the important factors that are known to impact risk perception.
Outlook, Sour Grapes, Ambiguity, False Analog, Survivorship Bias,
Mere Exposure Effect, Curse of Knowledge, Magical Assumptions and motivated reasoning
How much they affect the risk analysis and risk treatment as well as risk management strategy
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Dear Adel,
As I know, both cognitive and emotional factors work in risk perception. In organizational context, Project managers take risks based on the values of the organization, their personal values, threat to their survival and success, rewards, capability to transfer the blame in case of failure, venerability of peers/superiors/subordinates, etc. In personal level, people take risk based on social norms, their value system, benefits and losses, wants and needs, chances of failure, etc. I have gone through many good and experiences of risk perception and risk management in my 34 years of professional career.
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Disaster risk analysis about opencast mine?
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Some publications that talk about the risk management in open cast mine.
  1. Badri, A., Nadeau, S., Gbodossou, A. 2011. Integration of OHS into risk management in an open-pit mining project in Quebec (Canada). Minerals 1(1), Special issue: Safety & Health in Mining, pp. 3-29.
  1. Badri, A., Nadeau, S. et Gbodossou, A., 2012. A mining project is a field of risks: a systematic and preliminary portrait of mining risks. International Journal of Safety & Security Engineering 2(2), pp. 145-166.
  1. Badri, A. 2015. The challenge of integrating OHS into industrial project risk management: proposal of a methodological approachto guide future research (Case of mining projects in Quebec, Canada). Minerals 5(2), Special issue: Applied Mineral Economics: Valuation, Decision Making and Risk Analysis, pp. 314-334.
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I am trying to show uncertainity of total health risk of heavy metals through consumption. I konw about primavera risk analysis tools. But i how to input deta on it is a problem to me. Can anyone share it how to input dataset on it. However, want to know resemble easy free tools like primavera.. Thanks for advance.
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I like Crystal Ball as well.
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Is anyone aware of any studies of discourse involving 'high stakes' (or risk) talk, and cautionary responses to perceived environments of high stakes?
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Interesting!
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For those that may not be familiar with the term, LSM is NOT a bar chart or Gantt chart. LSM is a robust production-based algorithm that greatly simplifies the visual description of project progress. It provides an easy to understand picture of key production relationships rather than mapping activity relationships as is done in CPM. Thus, it seems to be a means to measure production risk which in turn drives schedule risk. We are looking for recent research or practical applications in the literature. The team is multilingual so papers or reports in languages other than English are welcome.
Cheers
Doug
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Thank you
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what might be the results
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of course insurance decreases the impact of risk, and I agree with Prof. Poul that its effect is limited in recovering the financial losses. But unlike tourism business, the risk in construction business is mainly about financial losses. Almost all constructions risks are usually evaluated in terms of financial losses starting from natural disasters, accidents, supplying chains and even time delay and penalty.
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on construction project
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risk management, risk analysis
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Following...
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The issue of corporate governance is very important and directly affects the efficiency of the entity's operation, the relationships between the recruiters employed at various levels of the organization and indirectly also on the relations between business entities and contractors and clients. Corporate governance is therefore particularly important in terms of the long-term development of an economic entity, also in terms of its successes in the competitive game and the holding of specific positions and shares in the markets of the sold product or service offer.
In my opinion, most parameters in the area of ​​corporate governance research in enterprises, companies, corporations and financial institutions are the same but not all. The same are those that relate to the issues of analogous models used, concepts of managing the entire organization, personnel management, offer, marketing, innovation, relations with contractors, shareholders, clients, etc. In contrast, differences arise in terms of specific differences regarding accounting, specificity business activity, risk analysis, prudential procedures used, IT technologies that support the operation of individual departments and departments, the specificity of the work positions of the staff employed, etc.
I invite you to the discussion
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The management board is responsible for the implementation and development of the controlling system, while the supervisory board has to review the effectiveness.
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I want to collect some data using BART but cannot find a downloadable version for eprime?
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Does anyone have any idea how the test can be integrated into the qaltrics questionnaire?
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Looking for collaboration on risk analysis, if you are skilled in using @RISK and interested, kindly send me a personal mail bernardonoja@yahoo.com
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Yup, and probably the best advice you get here: switch to R. The sooner you do it the less you suffer in long run.
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After having long discussions with other fellow researchers and agronomists, I have yet to find an answer to this question. I've read many papers that mention positive impacts of N fertilisation in water limited environments (i.e. Barraclough, P. B., Kuhlmann, H., & Weir, A. H. (1989). The effects of prolonged drought and nitrogen fertilizer on root and shoot growth and water uptake by winter wheat. Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science, 163(5), 352-360), while others mention that this would happen in wetter areas (more than 300 mm of annual precipitation; Sadras, V. (2002). Interaction between rainfall and nitrogen fertilisation of wheat in environments prone to terminal drought: economic and environmental risk analysis. Field Crops Research, 77(2-3), 201-215). I understand that increasing the Nitrogen nutrition index of any crop would result in increased water used efficiency. Thus, if water is scarce and we can use it more efficiently by increasing N fertilisation, this would be a preferred choice.
What are your ideas on this matter? Should farmers increase or decrease N fertilisation in dry years?
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Dear Jose
Generally, the application of Nitrogen fertilizer improves the efficiency of roots to explore the soil and, therefore, the drought avoiding capacity of plants. checking attached paper could be useful:
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I am planning to include "risk behaviour and time preference of smallholder farmers" as factors that affect their decision to adopt long-term improved soil and water conservation practices in Ethiopia. For this I need to construct simple questions which are easy to be understood by farmers. If you have any idea, please, forward it.
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I have  1 independent (software development method)variable divided in two groups(agile method, heavyweight method) 5 dependent variables(satisfaction,communication,quality, risk analysis, clients demands) each variable have 1 item(scale). how can I find EFA or CFA in this case where each variable have 1 item.  every item have 7 likert scale options. responses are 396. can I apply CFA on all variables togather.? please explain?
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I want the fragility and capacity curves for an earthquake risk analysis
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Hi Sina,
Try the HAZUS project. A good description of the project is here:
Hope it helps,
Augusto
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how to make an isolateable section, can anyone give example using a P&ID
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Probably the best guide is to use the HAZOP approach. The breakdown of the P&ID into nodes is very helpful.(see attached). BUT don't forget to step back to identify potential escalations between nodes, sections and units(common drains etc) which can cause domino effects. This also includes looking at what else (plants, people) are within hazard ranges.
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What could be the limitations of such analysis?
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Sensitivity Analysis is important in Risk management and analysis. Good question.
The Sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine how changes in cost and revenue items can alter the cash flow estimate in project.
It involves studying how the overall expected outcome is likely to alter response to change in input variables i.e Analysis of NPV expected eith respect to sales volume, selling prices or initial outlay
It also involves identification of key variables in the base case appraisal. - which input variables have considerable significant impact by a small change on the project IRR or NPV
This is a good method but the draw back or limitation is this does not qualify and does not provide any clear decision system to the management. In sensitivity analysis it treats variables as if they are independent and does not consider interrelationship
You can solve few numerical on sensitivity analysis and the concept will be clear.
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There appears to be a dearth of serious analysis as to just how great a risk of terrorist attack we face. Individual research, e.g. Stewart and Mueller suggests a greatly exaggerated threat. So what is any government's response to this, have they conducted any proper risk analysis and if so, what are the results? This is vital if we are to have a serious debate on terrorism and counter-terrorism. In addition, any governmental cost-benefit analysis of security measures would be most welcome as part of the debate.
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As noted, most of the findings are likely classified particularly about foiled and failed plots because those tend not to show up in the open sources. I can speak a bit to the methods of terrorism research, which relies heavily on statistical models like Monte Carlo analysis and probabilistic risk assessments. Often when the government contracts for a risk assessment, they are asking about a specific threat say "what is the chance of terrorists getting a nuclear weapon" or "how is ISIS likely to evolve in the next few years" rather than a broad risk of terrorism as a whole. I'm not aware of a good cost-benefit analysis off the top of my head, but I'd be interested in seeing one. Remember of course that a lot of counter-terrorism measures are based on politics rather than risk assessment. If you'd like to dive into it on your own, my organization's database is one of the most comprehensive on the incident level: http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/
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I am using SPSS and I am not familiar with the aforementioned programs. The last time I had to calculate a competing risk analysis, I had to get an appointment with a statistician.
So, I want to know if there is any possibility to calculate a competing risk analysis for instance in SPSS?
If not, can somebody tell me a quick and easy way how to perform a CR-analysis in R?
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A package for R and and explanation can be found at http://www.nature.com/articles/1705727.
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We are currently building a medical prediction platform (Evidencio) for researchers and physicians to facilitate translation of scientific articles to medical practice (www.evidencio.com). Evidencio is a platform created for and by scientists/physicians that allows for easy external validation of prediction models as well as conversion to easy-to-use online calculators for everyday practice. 
Which (type of) prediction models would be most usefull for you to add to the platform? And, as a researcher/physician, would you be interested in adding your own prediction model to the platform?  
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The IOTA simple and advance rules for predicting ovarian cancer. Although there already is an app for that from the IOTA collaboration study group, so you might have a copyright issue. Still, having everything in one place increases visiability and the more people who use the, the better for patients
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how to start research in the field hazard identification and risk analysis in industry? 
what are the techniques?
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I think both of the above are a useful tools that you can use at some point in time. However, my suggestions would be that you first think about what type of research you are trying to do. The first one is very useful if you are considering reserach in major hazard facilities, and the second one if the outcome you are considering is an injury.
The ISO 31000 risk management framework, based on the PDCA cycle, is one which has also been used some industries, and there are some publications that suggest it is useful . My colleague Dr Jefferies and I have also proposed an adapted version of this, which includes about six main stages. This one does include some ideas from major hazards facilities (as part of setting the context stage), but leaves the option for identiying and assessment stage to the user. There are many different methods and approaches that can be applied here. I have been using this adapted version for my postgraduate teaching in the last two years and students have found this easier to follow. 
Mani
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Current age is that of a cyber warfare. What the the various ICT security issues that the military face because of its enemies. Especially, what are the economic impacts of those issues on the country and its army?
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Once of the critical issue in Military ICT is about “Information Superiority”. Information superiority is the operational advantage derived from the ability to collect, process, and disseminate an uninterrupted flow of information while exploiting or denying an adversary's ability to do the same. As a nation, when we gain control over our sensitive military information (meaning efficient analysis, storage and secured dissemination) as well as control over our adversary’s information (i.e. via offensive cyber operations, military intelligence operations and other means), we have military operational advantage. However, if our adversary gains control over our information, then we lose the operational advantage (this is often referred as Zero Sum Arithmetic). Unfortunately, there is no easy way of ascertaining the economic impact of losing the “Information Superiority Battle”, because that depends on the scale of dominance over the information (i.e. nature & scale of information being compromised). Please refer to my articles on these issues at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/modern-warfare-its-unique-requirements-from-ict-dr-fahim-k-sufi
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Bisphenol A (BPA), as well as some other bisphenols, are hormone disrupting chemicals potentially present in conventional receipts that you and I are handling every day. Recentrly we have made a study in Denmark ("Bisphenol A and its structural analogues in household waste paper", Pivnenko et. al., 2015) and showed that BPA, as well as bisphenol S (BPS), are present in concentrations up to 1.7% in conventional receipts. Are you aware of BPA (or BPS) present in receipts in your country? Could you refer to studies (published or unpublished) quantifying them? Please share your information openly or in a private message. Any help is appreciated. 
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Dear Lieven,
Thank you for sharing this study. This is a good example of what I am looking for; a non-English study that provides concentration data of presence of BPA in receipts. I am sure that more data is available from other countries as well.
Regards,
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I use IEEE and NEPA standard from one USA software for Arc Flash Hazard and risk analysis but I am interesting are any paper which consider in IEC standard for this mater not IEEE.
Thanks in advance
Srete
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only explanation of this two terms 
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What kind of risk are you trying to do the assessment? An environmental risk assessment or human exposure risk assessment?
Definitions:
- Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI): Estimate of the amount of a substance in food or drinking water, expressed on a body-mass basis (usually mg/kg body weight), which can be ingested daily over a lifetime by humans without appreciable health risk. For calculation of the daily intake per person, a standard body mass of 60 kg is used. ADI is normally used for food additives (tolerable daily intake is used for contaminants).
 - Risk Quotient (RQ): Is calculated from an estimated exposure (PEC), divided by an estimated effect (PNEC). If a value less than 1, then there is an acceptable risk. In contrast, if the RQ greater than 1, there is an unacceptable level of risk and measures to reduce exposure should be taken.
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Risk assessment
Risk management
Risk analysis
Threat impact
Likelihood
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What if the Relative Risk value is zero? Does that indicate there is no association between the risk and the disease?
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Do you mean RR=0 or RR=1? If RR = 0 there aren't cases of disease among the exposed to the factor, so the factor can be considered as protective. If RR=1 the incidence among the exposed to the factor is equal to the incidence among the non-exposed, that is, the incidence of the disease in the study population does not change in the presence or absence of the factor; therefore, the factor is not associated with the disease.
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Dear colleagues,
I am looking for a way to obtain absolute risk reduction, relative risks, relative risk reduction and NNT from logistic regression models based on the paper of Austin (2010 - see attached) using (preferably) a mix of Excel, SPSS and/or Mplus. I have problems applying the manuscripts content to my data. I guess I can calculate the ARR, RR, RRR and NNT with Excel; however, calculating the confidence intervals via bootstrap would be problematic. Any help with the application of the manuscript would be very welcome!
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If you have SPSS available, then you can obtain these by using the Generalized Linear Model procedure. With a binary family, using different links will get you the following:
logit link        odds ratio
log link          rate ratio
identity link    risk difference
and of course, the NNT is 1 / risk difference        
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I am new to survival analysis and am having difficulty choosing how to analyze my dataset.
The background is that I have a pretty big dataset that is in essence national level statistics for a disease that includes ~22,000 subjects, with slightly over 65K observations over five years.
The 'final state' of the patients can be:
  1. Death (due to disease),
  2. Death (due to other causes),
  3. Cure,
  4. Completed Treatment (but did not cure),
  5. Fail Treatment (did not complete treatment for some reason),
  6. Default (Lost-to-follow up), and
  7. Continuing Treatment.
All told there are about ~2700 deaths, ~5000 cures, and ~7400 completed treatment patients, of course a whole lot of unknowns, and many co-variates which I can analyze (e.g. age, gender, homelessness, etc).
Most of the literature I have read about competing risks talks about competing risks of death (e.g. 1 vs 2) but not cure (#3) as an alternate endpoint.  
I'd like to analyze my data comparing/contrasting aspects of both cure and death and wondered if competing risks analysis is appropriate?
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Do not turn towards more elobarate, sophisticated methods just because you can and you are curious what comes out of them.
What is the reason? What are you trying to give an answer to?
Your research will be much more efficient if you state that for yourself first.
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Hi, 
I have been doing some research and couldn't find any solution to how calculate the coefficient of absolute risk aversion (CARA) and coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA). 
A lot of articles and lectures in universities are always showing the formulas, (CARA=U''(x)/U'(x)) but I couldn't find a concrete example of how these were calculated.
So I was struggling to calculate my exercise:
a.    Suppose a risk-averse agent is given an asset that will pay off 1 with probability .5 and will pay off 2 with probability .5.   He is just indifferent between keeping this asset and exchanging it for an asset that will pay off 1.25 for sure.  What can you say about his coefficient of absolute risk aversion?
Expected Value asset A        E(x) = (0.5 * 1 = 0.5) + (0.5 * 2 = 1.0) = 1.5
Utility of Expected Value is = ln (1.5) = 0.41
Lower Utility for risk-averse agent = 0.5*ln(1) + 0.5*ln(2) = 0.35
Certainty Equivalent = ln(X) = 0.35 = e^0.35 = 1.42
Risk Premium = Expected Value – Certainty Equivalent = 1.5 – 1.42 = 0.08
Expected Value asset B = E(x) = 1 * 1,25 = 1,25
Arrow-Pratt measure of absolute risk aversion A = U’’(x)/U’(x) = ?
b.    Now suppose instead that the same agent as in (a) is given an asset that pays off either 2 or 4 with equal probability.  If his coefficient of absolute risk aversion is the same as in (a) what is the certain payoff that would leave him equally well-off as holding the risky gamble?
c.    Now suppose as in (b) that the agent is given an asset that pays off either 2 or 4 with equal probability.  You learn that he is indifferent between keeping this risky gamble and exchanging it for an asset that pays 2.5 for sure.  What can you say about his coefficient of absolute risk aversion in this case? 
 Could somebody help a bit please?
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a)To measure Arrow’s Pratt risk aversion: 
rA = -U(w)''/U(w)' , where U(w) = Ln(W) (assumed by the exercise).
U(w)' = 1/W and U(w)'' = -1/W2, and  rA  = 1/W>0 (positive = risk averse)
Since W is the denominator, as wealth increases, rA decreases and as W→∞, 
rA→0 (becomes neutral)
b) In the case of a risk - neutral person, the following equation needs to be considered:
U(P X1 + (1-P) X2)= P U(x1) + (1-P) U (x2
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We are looking for a pragmatical approach for the complete risk analysis and for the summary which is part of the regulatory documentation of a marketing authorisation.
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Hi Berit,
You may use the following  method:
The Elemental Impurities Risk Assessment
For more details:
Hope this helps,
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I am using SPSS, and I don't know how to incorporate the risk (chances of someone being unemployment). PS: I am not trying to check the pattern of unemployment and education. 
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The point of using the odds of something is that you can avoid having a limited dependent variable. If you just have the probability, then your variable goes from zero to one. If you have the odds, then you have a variable that may go from zero to infinity. Finally, if you take the log of odds, then you have a variable that can go from negative to positive infinity. So this is pretty great if you can compute the probability as you can with grouped data. Otherwise, when using a zero or one dependent variable, such as you would do with individual data, you must use logit or some close substitute.
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probability of occurrence,potential loss,The chance of error,How risk is appraised?,Hazard Identification,Exposure Quantification....
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Well, if you are looking for the methodology of quantitative risk assessment in chemical or process industry, then you may widen your literature search to the following topics because they are the important tools or approached to comprehend the whole risk assessment:
  • Consequence Modeling
  • Probability Modeling
  • Risk Mitigation
  • Cost Benefit Analysis
Quantitative risk analysis is a widely accepted technique within the chemical and
process industries. The attached files show some articles that are related to the respective topics. Hope they are of useful to you.
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Hello,
What is the proper approach or method that would help me to identify risk factors that are common to any Megaprojects? i.e. how can I develop a list of risk factors that can happen to any Megaprojects in the future?
Note: Megaprojects are large scale construction projects that cost more that $1 billion, which are very risky, complex, uncertain, unique, and sensitive towards social-environmental-economic-political aspects.
Best regards.
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In the context, politics envolve social and economics aspects. Megaprojects expects to impact more severely every environment, and so the antropic. How broadly the study will reach sometimes it is determined by politics aspects. It could result in missing actions to mitigate pressures that in the future will afect the success of the Project. Thats why I suggest  an inicial broadest approach both geographical and time considered, as deep as possible. with a multidisciplinar staff, studying the environment with and without the Project, troughtout the timeline of the megaproject.
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Dear all, my topic changed slightly to Financial Risk Analysis in Not-for-Profit Organisations. 
Any material that is helpful will be appreciated. Also, I need the financial reports of at least four not-for-profitsFinancial report from 2010-2015.
Thank you.
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In the risk assessment (especially fire risk) there is some agreement regarding the basic acceptable risk level - lower than the natural death level. Defined as: "the risk of one death with a probability of less than 1 per million of persons per year".
Which society has natural death level at 1*10-6? Do you know where are the roots of such definition of the acceptable risk level?
Kind regards,
Adam
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Dear Adam
For me,
Each risk factor or risk trigger and their derivative variables has their own acceptable risk; depending on their risk indicator and performance indicator. Risk acceptable risk also different for anybody or institution; so, the most important thing is how to identify and define each related variables that influencing risk and determine their suitable risk indicators; then comparing them to their standard and/or acceptable criteria.  Good luck.
Best regard
Don
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I am working on the thesis topic ''Assessment of Risk Perception and Risk attitudes among managers and individuals  in non-profit organisation.''
Many thanks
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