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I'm replicating Fama-French five factor mode. I have formed factor portfolios. I'm not sure how to the average monthly percent excess returns for portfolios. In other words, I want to get the Table 1 in their paper. 
Thanks in advance
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The cause-specific hazard model and the Fine-Gray subdistribution model are well known methods of competing risk analysis, but both assumes proportional hazards. Is there any method of handling competing risks that does not assume that? A google search didn't turn out very useful. Would be especially grateful if the specified methods have a Stata implementation too! Thank you in advance
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I can recommend you to new safety approaches (Safety II-III) instead of traditional approaches (Safety I).
I mean you could do risk analysis and assesment with realiability engineering.
For instance "FRAM, CAST, STAMP" methods and models re some of the excellent ways of gettin understand complex systems. With this methods you could understand the all sytem and find best solution of problems and hazards.
I hope these general information could be enough for your question.
You can send me message for much more question you need. Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan
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Although there are many mathematical approaches to model epistemic uncertanties in risk analysis, it is very unusual. What you think about that?
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Use of mathematical procedures to epistemic uncertainty , this will not solve the problem of decision making, if the recipients of the information , i.e. the decision makers are not ready to revise their risk hypothesis. For example, Siddhartha R. Dalal, Edward B. Fowlkes, Bruce Hoadley (1989) and Frederik Michel Dekking; Cornelis Kraaikamp; Hendrik Paul Lopuhaa; ̈Ludolf Erwin Meester(2005) decided that there is a high probability of 81% that O rings will be damaged in the case of Space shuttle accident. Will the information five out of six rings will be damaged or probability of 81% that O rings will be damaged in the case of the launch at very low temperatures at the pre launch meeting shared, do we think that the statistical probability rate would have the same effect on the NASA decision makers?
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Dear Colleagues,
I am trying to understand the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping for Urban Risk Analysis. However, I have no idea how to organize my collected data in Excel Dataset or SPSS Dataset to analyze them for Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping. I am focusing on Disaster impact and its causal relationship with other variables.
Please help me to understand the data organization process in Excel Dataset or SPSS Dataset. I know these maps can be created by FCMapper or Mental Modeler.
Thanks in advance
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Dear Nawrose Fatemi
sa/office/%D8%A5%D9%86%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%B7-%D8%AE%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-excel-f2cfed55-d622-42cd-8ec9-ec8a358b593b
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Do you have any suggestions on articles that discuss risk analysis and risk management aimed at safety in the workplace?
Thank you all.
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Are credit rating agencies currently reliably assessing the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions, including issuers of securities?
One of the factors that generated a high scale of negative aspects of the global financial crisis in 2008 was the practice of unreliably carried out assessments of the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions, including issuers of securities and certain financial instruments offered to individual clients by commercial banks. Have the financial supervisory authorities developed effective instruments to enforce the reliability of credit risk analysis procedures in investment banks and rating agencies? Do financial systems work more effectively than in 2008? Do credit rating agencies reliably carry out an assessment of the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions?
Please, answer, comments.
I invite you to the discussion.
Best wishes
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Yes, many participants and investors operating in financial markets, including capital markets, agree that internationally operating rating agencies diligently carry out their analyzes and formulate their recommendations. In order for this state to continue in the future, conclusions should be drawn from the mistakes made before the global financial crisis of 2008.
Regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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I am looking for population exposure data for village-level risk analysis. Can you help me to get the LandScan Global Population Database?
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It is a good question
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The scientific journals that are needed are:
- Environmental.
- Earth sciences.
- Hazard and risk analysis
Thanks.
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Hi
I think sir you first seek the perspective or goal or purpose of UNDP. ...
Once cleared you will get your answer with respect to publication
For me it is a global development network which connects whole world for advocating experience and resources to help people.. Upliftment them through skill and knowledge and provide better life to them...
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Open source and easy to learn with proper documentation.
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Thank you sir. It is very useful !! S.M. Talha Qadri
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Competing risk approach and bankruptcy
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Perhaps have a look at the website of https://www.theirm.org or Cosmo framework
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I have EC50 and LC50 values and wanted to calculate PEC for different species in water. I have currently considered acute risk with an assessment factor of 100 based on a previous similar publication. Please advise.
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Hi,
I deal with human health risks, I find your question very interesting. If you have the distribution function (by agent), your median is what you refer as LC50 lethal concentration at which -- on the average -- 50% of those in the sample die). Why use a safety factor of 100 when you can use +3 sigma, +4 sigma ...? This is the easy part. The hard part is whether the responses are actually unimodal, not skewed, and so on. I would prefer to use the full distribution, show its empirical (data driven form) fit a curve to that distribution and judge what to do. The uncertainty in the right tail of the distribution is what matters. In other words, I would also be concerned with extreme outcomes (namely your 100 factor), which depends on the empirical distribution of the agent. Of course, if you are using a well-studied agent than LC50 and the 100 factor may well be justified in the literature. Eckel's point is very appropriate.
I hope I did not misunderstand the question.
Best, Paolo
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Hi,
I am trying to use Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool for a systematic review. But I couldn't figure out how to use the tool to score a single study.
Can someone who previously wrote systematic reviews and have risk analysis data share with me?
thank you so much
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In your question you do not specify what tool you are using, for what type of study. Have you already tried using ROB-2? This is the new cochrane tool to assess risk of bias in randomized clinical trials. It is at: https://sites.google.com/site/riskofbiastool/welcome/rob-2-0-tool?authuser=0
For observational studies you can use ROBINS-I.
Could you ask a more specific question? maybe I can help you
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I am using the moments-based approach to calculate the risk premium of growing a specific crop. As proposed by Chavas (Kim and Chavas,2003 and Chavas et al,2009) I used CRRA risk preference. Then incorporate moments (variance and skewness) into the equation used by Antle (1987). I got a problem as variance and skewness are in large numbers (into the power of 10^7 sometimes) the calculated risk premium is a huge number. I guessed that there is something wrong here. Can anyone suggest of a source of information of the detailed risk calculation using the moments-based approach?
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You need to research closely and compare it with the researchers' ideas
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Hallo zusammen,
gerne wollte ich in unserer Projektgruppe GPW Young Crop Science das Thema "Kooperation" aufgreifen. Ich finde es sehr wichtig, dass man sich untereinander austauscht und - falls es thematisch passt - auch Kooperationen mit Kollegen aus anderen Instituten/Universitäten innerhalb und außerhalb von Deutschland eingeht. Man gewinnt an Erfahrung, lernt viel Neues und oft entsteht am Ende auch eine gemeinsame Publikation - was richtig klasse ist.
Falls ihr mögt, könntet ihr - hier in dieser Diskussionsgruppe - eure momentanen Forschungsgebiete mit möglichen Kooperationswünschen posten. Vielleicht findet sich die eine oder andere Interessenüberschneidung und es entstehen im besten Fall neue Kooperationen! Das wäre doch klasse, oder?
In meinem Fall wäre ich an Kooperationen auf dem Forschungsgebiet "Ertragsstabilität & Risikoanalyse" interessiert, d.h. Bewertung von verschiedenen Anbausystemen, Düngestrategien, Fruchtfolgen, Zwischenfruchtanbau, und besonders interessiert bin ich an der Auswertung von Dauerfeldversuchen. Falls jemand Interesse hat, würde ich mich sehr über eine Nachricht freuen.
Ich freue mich auf eure Rückmeldungen!
Janna
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Hi
It is nice topic , i would like to kindly suggest you using AI(processing),IOT .
Regards Mehrabi
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The risk management process includes identifying risks, analyzing and responding to risks, and then escorting and controlling throughout the project life cycle. The methodology used at each stage of the risk management process is different. The question here is about the most important two stages, which are identifying and analyzing risks, and what is the difference in the methodology in these two stages?
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Risk analysis is a sequence of planning of risk management, risk analysis, risk identification and risk quantification. Risk Management incorporates risk identification and risk quantification. Risk quantification is a process to evaluate the identified risk.
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There is no doubt that the pillars of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (for example: the Internet of Things) will play a very big role in improving and developing the performance of risk analysis techniques. In your opinion, how will this be?
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Nice guidance, thank you very much.
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Hi, I am looking for research topic (ideas) and current research trends on international business management. It will be good to have what will be future research scope on International Business Management. I am particularly interested in these ( Risk analysis, operation, project management, strategy, digital marketing, leading people ) research. But these are not limiting factor, please leave your comment, I will surely look into it. Looking forward to your answers. Regards
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M M Zaman Tanim Institutional Process Improvement and Implementation
It is now seen that traditional project management from the pre-World War II is on the shelf in modern times. Many practitioners oppose the fact that there is a planning element in the projects and that it is desired to know everything from the beginning. Thousands of projects carried out in real terms have found that the traditional method works with a flawless linearity and straight logic, and that it is well understood. Many governments and companies have been thinking about improving processes and making them faster and more functional for decades. In this respect, it is inevitable for all kinds of companies to engage in a process improvement and total quality practice in order to meet the increasing needs and demands. It is now impossible for firms that act otherwise to respond to market needs and succeed. Today, many companies have personnel to think about business processes and strive to achieve excellence by improving these processes. Agile project management is an inevitable technique for companies for these reasons.
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I am looking for where I can acquire useful information from wells for an integrity project
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For risk analysis you need to use company financial reporting information.
The standards (IFRS) require all entities to publish annual financial statements.
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The website version is already available but it is time consuming to feed manually.
The software is in need very urgent. Please let me know ASAP.
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sorry, No.
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I am doing a project and I need to know what the advantages and disadvantages are for qualiitative and quantitative risk analysis?
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There are no disdvantges of either technique but there are advantages of each.Qualitative analysis is done when the objective us exploratory when you want the answer to the question why for eg if the ro is what led to the decline of the brand i should go for qualitative analysis througj twchniques like pi or focus grp or ethnography or projective techniques etc
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I am looking for case studies of actual privacy risks. At the core of privacy and data protection impact assessments, we find the concept of 'risk' meaning - in this case - the probability of a threat to personal data and the possible harm or damage caused by this threat. E.g. I fall victim to a phishing attack and the attacker gains access to my bank account, the actual harm being that my account is emptied. Another example would be that my account at a social media platform is hacked and my identity is used to "go shopping".
Now, one finds a lot of literature on privacy (PIA) and data protection impact assessments (e.g. the edited volume by Wright and De Hert (2012) on PIA), on the potential risks of low levels of data security (e.g. Rosner, Kenneally (2018): Clearly Opaque: Privacy Risks of the Internet of Things), on technological and organization standards (e.g. ISO 27001 on Information security management), or on the regulatory frameworks of privacy and data protection (e.g. everything on the details of the GDPR in the EU). But I have a hard time to find research results evaluating actual risks similar to your risk to fall victim to a traffic accident, have your home being broken into, or get cancer.
I would welcome any hint to empirical publications on actual privacy risk analysis be it from medical, social, internet-based or any other research that you consider as most important. I am *not* looking for literature on how to conduct privacy and data protection impact assessments or standards for this purpose. Thank you.
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This is a great question, and inspired to me to look for some quantification of the risk and probability of data breaches and harm. Found the following reports which may be of interest. They are largely from security companies and insurance companies, which would have access to this kind of data and might need data like that to set insurance policies.
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Risk perception is the tendency for people to have different dramatically estimates of risk probability and impact given the same information. The following are the important factors that are known to impact risk perception.
Outlook, Sour Grapes, Ambiguity, False Analog, Survivorship Bias,
Mere Exposure Effect, Curse of Knowledge, Magical Assumptions and motivated reasoning
How much they affect the risk analysis and risk treatment as well as risk management strategy
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Dear Adel,
As I know, both cognitive and emotional factors work in risk perception. In organizational context, Project managers take risks based on the values of the organization, their personal values, threat to their survival and success, rewards, capability to transfer the blame in case of failure, venerability of peers/superiors/subordinates, etc. In personal level, people take risk based on social norms, their value system, benefits and losses, wants and needs, chances of failure, etc. I have gone through many good and experiences of risk perception and risk management in my 34 years of professional career.
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Disaster risk analysis about opencast mine?
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Some publications that talk about the risk management in open cast mine.
  1. Badri, A., Nadeau, S., Gbodossou, A. 2011. Integration of OHS into risk management in an open-pit mining project in Quebec (Canada). Minerals 1(1), Special issue: Safety & Health in Mining, pp. 3-29.
  1. Badri, A., Nadeau, S. et Gbodossou, A., 2012. A mining project is a field of risks: a systematic and preliminary portrait of mining risks. International Journal of Safety & Security Engineering 2(2), pp. 145-166.
  1. Badri, A. 2015. The challenge of integrating OHS into industrial project risk management: proposal of a methodological approachto guide future research (Case of mining projects in Quebec, Canada). Minerals 5(2), Special issue: Applied Mineral Economics: Valuation, Decision Making and Risk Analysis, pp. 314-334.
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Is anyone aware of any studies of discourse involving 'high stakes' (or risk) talk, and cautionary responses to perceived environments of high stakes?
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Interesting!
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For those that may not be familiar with the term, LSM is NOT a bar chart or Gantt chart. LSM is a robust production-based algorithm that greatly simplifies the visual description of project progress. It provides an easy to understand picture of key production relationships rather than mapping activity relationships as is done in CPM. Thus, it seems to be a means to measure production risk which in turn drives schedule risk. We are looking for recent research or practical applications in the literature. The team is multilingual so papers or reports in languages other than English are welcome.
Cheers
Doug
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Thank you
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what might be the results
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of course insurance decreases the impact of risk, and I agree with Prof. Poul that its effect is limited in recovering the financial losses. But unlike tourism business, the risk in construction business is mainly about financial losses. Almost all constructions risks are usually evaluated in terms of financial losses starting from natural disasters, accidents, supplying chains and even time delay and penalty.
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on construction project
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risk management, risk analysis
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Following...
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I am trying to show uncertainity of total health risk of heavy metals through consumption. I konw about primavera risk analysis tools. But i how to input deta on it is a problem to me. Can anyone share it how to input dataset on it. However, want to know resemble easy free tools like primavera.. Thanks for advance.
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R has several packages and it's free all the time!
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The issue of corporate governance is very important and directly affects the efficiency of the entity's operation, the relationships between the recruiters employed at various levels of the organization and indirectly also on the relations between business entities and contractors and clients. Corporate governance is therefore particularly important in terms of the long-term development of an economic entity, also in terms of its successes in the competitive game and the holding of specific positions and shares in the markets of the sold product or service offer.
In my opinion, most parameters in the area of ​​corporate governance research in enterprises, companies, corporations and financial institutions are the same but not all. The same are those that relate to the issues of analogous models used, concepts of managing the entire organization, personnel management, offer, marketing, innovation, relations with contractors, shareholders, clients, etc. In contrast, differences arise in terms of specific differences regarding accounting, specificity business activity, risk analysis, prudential procedures used, IT technologies that support the operation of individual departments and departments, the specificity of the work positions of the staff employed, etc.
I invite you to the discussion
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The management board is responsible for the implementation and development of the controlling system, while the supervisory board has to review the effectiveness.
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Is there any scientific data analytics that one could refer to while rating risks as per ISO 14971. By analytics, I mean the probability of risks due to various hazards enlisted.
How can we validate the rating mechanism so that each of the team member has similar approach towards rating the risks.
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I want to collect some data using BART but cannot find a downloadable version for eprime?
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Does anyone have any idea how the test can be integrated into the qaltrics questionnaire?
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Looking for collaboration on risk analysis, if you are skilled in using @RISK and interested, kindly send me a personal mail bernardonoja@yahoo.com
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Yup, and probably the best advice you get here: switch to R. The sooner you do it the less you suffer in long run.
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After having long discussions with other fellow researchers and agronomists, I have yet to find an answer to this question. I've read many papers that mention positive impacts of N fertilisation in water limited environments (i.e. Barraclough, P. B., Kuhlmann, H., & Weir, A. H. (1989). The effects of prolonged drought and nitrogen fertilizer on root and shoot growth and water uptake by winter wheat. Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science, 163(5), 352-360), while others mention that this would happen in wetter areas (more than 300 mm of annual precipitation; Sadras, V. (2002). Interaction between rainfall and nitrogen fertilisation of wheat in environments prone to terminal drought: economic and environmental risk analysis. Field Crops Research, 77(2-3), 201-215). I understand that increasing the Nitrogen nutrition index of any crop would result in increased water used efficiency. Thus, if water is scarce and we can use it more efficiently by increasing N fertilisation, this would be a preferred choice.
What are your ideas on this matter? Should farmers increase or decrease N fertilisation in dry years?
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Dear Jose
Generally, the application of Nitrogen fertilizer improves the efficiency of roots to explore the soil and, therefore, the drought avoiding capacity of plants. checking attached paper could be useful:
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I am planning to include "risk behaviour and time preference of smallholder farmers" as factors that affect their decision to adopt long-term improved soil and water conservation practices in Ethiopia. For this I need to construct simple questions which are easy to be understood by farmers. If you have any idea, please, forward it.
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I have  1 independent (software development method)variable divided in two groups(agile method, heavyweight method) 5 dependent variables(satisfaction,communication,quality, risk analysis, clients demands) each variable have 1 item(scale). how can I find EFA or CFA in this case where each variable have 1 item.  every item have 7 likert scale options. responses are 396. can I apply CFA on all variables togather.? please explain?
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I want the fragility and capacity curves for an earthquake risk analysis
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Hi Sina,
Try the HAZUS project. A good description of the project is here:
Hope it helps,
Augusto
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how to make an isolateable section, can anyone give example using a P&ID
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Probably the best guide is to use the HAZOP approach. The breakdown of the P&ID into nodes is very helpful.(see attached). BUT don't forget to step back to identify potential escalations between nodes, sections and units(common drains etc) which can cause domino effects. This also includes looking at what else (plants, people) are within hazard ranges.
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What could be the limitations of such analysis?
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Sensitivity Analysis is important in Risk management and analysis. Good question.
The Sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine how changes in cost and revenue items can alter the cash flow estimate in project.
It involves studying how the overall expected outcome is likely to alter response to change in input variables i.e Analysis of NPV expected eith respect to sales volume, selling prices or initial outlay
It also involves identification of key variables in the base case appraisal. - which input variables have considerable significant impact by a small change on the project IRR or NPV
This is a good method but the draw back or limitation is this does not qualify and does not provide any clear decision system to the management. In sensitivity analysis it treats variables as if they are independent and does not consider interrelationship
You can solve few numerical on sensitivity analysis and the concept will be clear.
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There appears to be a dearth of serious analysis as to just how great a risk of terrorist attack we face. Individual research, e.g. Stewart and Mueller suggests a greatly exaggerated threat. So what is any government's response to this, have they conducted any proper risk analysis and if so, what are the results? This is vital if we are to have a serious debate on terrorism and counter-terrorism. In addition, any governmental cost-benefit analysis of security measures would be most welcome as part of the debate.
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As noted, most of the findings are likely classified particularly about foiled and failed plots because those tend not to show up in the open sources. I can speak a bit to the methods of terrorism research, which relies heavily on statistical models like Monte Carlo analysis and probabilistic risk assessments. Often when the government contracts for a risk assessment, they are asking about a specific threat say "what is the chance of terrorists getting a nuclear weapon" or "how is ISIS likely to evolve in the next few years" rather than a broad risk of terrorism as a whole. I'm not aware of a good cost-benefit analysis off the top of my head, but I'd be interested in seeing one. Remember of course that a lot of counter-terrorism measures are based on politics rather than risk assessment. If you'd like to dive into it on your own, my organization's database is one of the most comprehensive on the incident level: http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/
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I am using SPSS and I am not familiar with the aforementioned programs. The last time I had to calculate a competing risk analysis, I had to get an appointment with a statistician.
So, I want to know if there is any possibility to calculate a competing risk analysis for instance in SPSS?
If not, can somebody tell me a quick and easy way how to perform a CR-analysis in R?
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A package for R and and explanation can be found at http://www.nature.com/articles/1705727.
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We are currently building a medical prediction platform (Evidencio) for researchers and physicians to facilitate translation of scientific articles to medical practice (www.evidencio.com). Evidencio is a platform created for and by scientists/physicians that allows for easy external validation of prediction models as well as conversion to easy-to-use online calculators for everyday practice. 
Which (type of) prediction models would be most usefull for you to add to the platform? And, as a researcher/physician, would you be interested in adding your own prediction model to the platform?  
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The IOTA simple and advance rules for predicting ovarian cancer. Although there already is an app for that from the IOTA collaboration study group, so you might have a copyright issue. Still, having everything in one place increases visiability and the more people who use the, the better for patients
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how to start research in the field hazard identification and risk analysis in industry? 
what are the techniques?
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I think both of the above are a useful tools that you can use at some point in time. However, my suggestions would be that you first think about what type of research you are trying to do. The first one is very useful if you are considering reserach in major hazard facilities, and the second one if the outcome you are considering is an injury.
The ISO 31000 risk management framework, based on the PDCA cycle, is one which has also been used some industries, and there are some publications that suggest it is useful . My colleague Dr Jefferies and I have also proposed an adapted version of this, which includes about six main stages. This one does include some ideas from major hazards facilities (as part of setting the context stage), but leaves the option for identiying and assessment stage to the user. There are many different methods and approaches that can be applied here. I have been using this adapted version for my postgraduate teaching in the last two years and students have found this easier to follow. 
Mani
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Current age is that of a cyber warfare. What the the various ICT security issues that the military face because of its enemies. Especially, what are the economic impacts of those issues on the country and its army?
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Once of the critical issue in Military ICT is about “Information Superiority”. Information superiority is the operational advantage derived from the ability to collect, process, and disseminate an uninterrupted flow of information while exploiting or denying an adversary's ability to do the same. As a nation, when we gain control over our sensitive military information (meaning efficient analysis, storage and secured dissemination) as well as control over our adversary’s information (i.e. via offensive cyber operations, military intelligence operations and other means), we have military operational advantage. However, if our adversary gains control over our information, then we lose the operational advantage (this is often referred as Zero Sum Arithmetic). Unfortunately, there is no easy way of ascertaining the economic impact of losing the “Information Superiority Battle”, because that depends on the scale of dominance over the information (i.e. nature & scale of information being compromised). Please refer to my articles on these issues at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/modern-warfare-its-unique-requirements-from-ict-dr-fahim-k-sufi
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Bisphenol A (BPA), as well as some other bisphenols, are hormone disrupting chemicals potentially present in conventional receipts that you and I are handling every day. Recentrly we have made a study in Denmark ("Bisphenol A and its structural analogues in household waste paper", Pivnenko et. al., 2015) and showed that BPA, as well as bisphenol S (BPS), are present in concentrations up to 1.7% in conventional receipts. Are you aware of BPA (or BPS) present in receipts in your country? Could you refer to studies (published or unpublished) quantifying them? Please share your information openly or in a private message. Any help is appreciated. 
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Dear Lieven,
Thank you for sharing this study. This is a good example of what I am looking for; a non-English study that provides concentration data of presence of BPA in receipts. I am sure that more data is available from other countries as well.
Regards,
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I use IEEE and NEPA standard from one USA software for Arc Flash Hazard and risk analysis but I am interesting are any paper which consider in IEC standard for this mater not IEEE.
Thanks in advance
Srete
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only explanation of this two terms 
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What kind of risk are you trying to do the assessment? An environmental risk assessment or human exposure risk assessment?
Definitions:
- Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI): Estimate of the amount of a substance in food or drinking water, expressed on a body-mass basis (usually mg/kg body weight), which can be ingested daily over a lifetime by humans without appreciable health risk. For calculation of the daily intake per person, a standard body mass of 60 kg is used. ADI is normally used for food additives (tolerable daily intake is used for contaminants).
 - Risk Quotient (RQ): Is calculated from an estimated exposure (PEC), divided by an estimated effect (PNEC). If a value less than 1, then there is an acceptable risk. In contrast, if the RQ greater than 1, there is an unacceptable level of risk and measures to reduce exposure should be taken.
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Risk assessment
Risk management
Risk analysis
Threat impact
Likelihood
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What if the Relative Risk value is zero? Does that indicate there is no association between the risk and the disease?
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Do you mean RR=0 or RR=1? If RR = 0 there aren't cases of disease among the exposed to the factor, so the factor can be considered as protective. If RR=1 the incidence among the exposed to the factor is equal to the incidence among the non-exposed, that is, the incidence of the disease in the study population does not change in the presence or absence of the factor; therefore, the factor is not associated with the disease.
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Dear colleagues,
I am looking for a way to obtain absolute risk reduction, relative risks, relative risk reduction and NNT from logistic regression models based on the paper of Austin (2010 - see attached) using (preferably) a mix of Excel, SPSS and/or Mplus. I have problems applying the manuscripts content to my data. I guess I can calculate the ARR, RR, RRR and NNT with Excel; however, calculating the confidence intervals via bootstrap would be problematic. Any help with the application of the manuscript would be very welcome!
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If you have SPSS available, then you can obtain these by using the Generalized Linear Model procedure. With a binary family, using different links will get you the following:
logit link        odds ratio
log link          rate ratio
identity link    risk difference
and of course, the NNT is 1 / risk difference        
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I am new to survival analysis and am having difficulty choosing how to analyze my dataset.
The background is that I have a pretty big dataset that is in essence national level statistics for a disease that includes ~22,000 subjects, with slightly over 65K observations over five years.
The 'final state' of the patients can be:
  1. Death (due to disease),
  2. Death (due to other causes),
  3. Cure,
  4. Completed Treatment (but did not cure),
  5. Fail Treatment (did not complete treatment for some reason),
  6. Default (Lost-to-follow up), and
  7. Continuing Treatment.
All told there are about ~2700 deaths, ~5000 cures, and ~7400 completed treatment patients, of course a whole lot of unknowns, and many co-variates which I can analyze (e.g. age, gender, homelessness, etc).
Most of the literature I have read about competing risks talks about competing risks of death (e.g. 1 vs 2) but not cure (#3) as an alternate endpoint.  
I'd like to analyze my data comparing/contrasting aspects of both cure and death and wondered if competing risks analysis is appropriate?
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Do not turn towards more elobarate, sophisticated methods just because you can and you are curious what comes out of them.
What is the reason? What are you trying to give an answer to?
Your research will be much more efficient if you state that for yourself first.
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Hi, 
I have been doing some research and couldn't find any solution to how calculate the coefficient of absolute risk aversion (CARA) and coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA). 
A lot of articles and lectures in universities are always showing the formulas, (CARA=U''(x)/U'(x)) but I couldn't find a concrete example of how these were calculated.
So I was struggling to calculate my exercise:
a.    Suppose a risk-averse agent is given an asset that will pay off 1 with probability .5 and will pay off 2 with probability .5.   He is just indifferent between keeping this asset and exchanging it for an asset that will pay off 1.25 for sure.  What can you say about his coefficient of absolute risk aversion?
Expected Value asset A        E(x) = (0.5 * 1 = 0.5) + (0.5 * 2 = 1.0) = 1.5
Utility of Expected Value is = ln (1.5) = 0.41
Lower Utility for risk-averse agent = 0.5*ln(1) + 0.5*ln(2) = 0.35
Certainty Equivalent = ln(X) = 0.35 = e^0.35 = 1.42
Risk Premium = Expected Value – Certainty Equivalent = 1.5 – 1.42 = 0.08
Expected Value asset B = E(x) = 1 * 1,25 = 1,25
Arrow-Pratt measure of absolute risk aversion A = U’’(x)/U’(x) = ?
b.    Now suppose instead that the same agent as in (a) is given an asset that pays off either 2 or 4 with equal probability.  If his coefficient of absolute risk aversion is the same as in (a) what is the certain payoff that would leave him equally well-off as holding the risky gamble?
c.    Now suppose as in (b) that the agent is given an asset that pays off either 2 or 4 with equal probability.  You learn that he is indifferent between keeping this risky gamble and exchanging it for an asset that pays 2.5 for sure.  What can you say about his coefficient of absolute risk aversion in this case? 
 Could somebody help a bit please?
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a)To measure Arrow’s Pratt risk aversion: 
rA = -U(w)''/U(w)' , where U(w) = Ln(W) (assumed by the exercise).
U(w)' = 1/W and U(w)'' = -1/W2, and  rA  = 1/W>0 (positive = risk averse)
Since W is the denominator, as wealth increases, rA decreases and as W→∞, 
rA→0 (becomes neutral)
b) In the case of a risk - neutral person, the following equation needs to be considered:
U(P X1 + (1-P) X2)= P U(x1) + (1-P) U (x2
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We are looking for a pragmatical approach for the complete risk analysis and for the summary which is part of the regulatory documentation of a marketing authorisation.
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Hi Berit,
You may use the following  method:
The Elemental Impurities Risk Assessment
For more details:
Hope this helps,
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I am using SPSS, and I don't know how to incorporate the risk (chances of someone being unemployment). PS: I am not trying to check the pattern of unemployment and education. 
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The point of using the odds of something is that you can avoid having a limited dependent variable. If you just have the probability, then your variable goes from zero to one. If you have the odds, then you have a variable that may go from zero to infinity. Finally, if you take the log of odds, then you have a variable that can go from negative to positive infinity. So this is pretty great if you can compute the probability as you can with grouped data. Otherwise, when using a zero or one dependent variable, such as you would do with individual data, you must use logit or some close substitute.
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probability of occurrence,potential loss,The chance of error,How risk is appraised?,Hazard Identification,Exposure Quantification....
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Well, if you are looking for the methodology of quantitative risk assessment in chemical or process industry, then you may widen your literature search to the following topics because they are the important tools or approached to comprehend the whole risk assessment:
  • Consequence Modeling
  • Probability Modeling
  • Risk Mitigation
  • Cost Benefit Analysis
Quantitative risk analysis is a widely accepted technique within the chemical and
process industries. The attached files show some articles that are related to the respective topics. Hope they are of useful to you.
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Hello,
What is the proper approach or method that would help me to identify risk factors that are common to any Megaprojects? i.e. how can I develop a list of risk factors that can happen to any Megaprojects in the future?
Note: Megaprojects are large scale construction projects that cost more that $1 billion, which are very risky, complex, uncertain, unique, and sensitive towards social-environmental-economic-political aspects.
Best regards.
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In the context, politics envolve social and economics aspects. Megaprojects expects to impact more severely every environment, and so the antropic. How broadly the study will reach sometimes it is determined by politics aspects. It could result in missing actions to mitigate pressures that in the future will afect the success of the Project. Thats why I suggest  an inicial broadest approach both geographical and time considered, as deep as possible. with a multidisciplinar staff, studying the environment with and without the Project, troughtout the timeline of the megaproject.
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Dear all, my topic changed slightly to Financial Risk Analysis in Not-for-Profit Organisations. 
Any material that is helpful will be appreciated. Also, I need the financial reports of at least four not-for-profitsFinancial report from 2010-2015.
Thank you.
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In the risk assessment (especially fire risk) there is some agreement regarding the basic acceptable risk level - lower than the natural death level. Defined as: "the risk of one death with a probability of less than 1 per million of persons per year".
Which society has natural death level at 1*10-6? Do you know where are the roots of such definition of the acceptable risk level?
Kind regards,
Adam
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Dear Adam
For me,
Each risk factor or risk trigger and their derivative variables has their own acceptable risk; depending on their risk indicator and performance indicator. Risk acceptable risk also different for anybody or institution; so, the most important thing is how to identify and define each related variables that influencing risk and determine their suitable risk indicators; then comparing them to their standard and/or acceptable criteria.  Good luck.
Best regard
Don
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I am working on the thesis topic ''Assessment of Risk Perception and Risk attitudes among managers and individuals  in non-profit organisation.''
Many thanks
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Hi
I hope that following papers are useful,plz check out.
Regards
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Anyone who have an assessment tool for life style risk index?
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Thanks all of you
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Assuming that you have done a threat model of a certain system and identified a list of threats of each component of this system. How can the threat model be analyzed to know how the propagation the attacks through the system that harms a certain business goal? Is there any approach that is based on FTA or not necessarily that can give the business goal as a top event and nodes as threats ?
Thank you
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Thanks Reema do you have a reference for a paper
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I am developing a project risk assessment model for energy projects in my country. Which free (or cheaper) web based software can help me do this more so that i expect more than 15 experts to participate in virtually scoring the risks based on probability and impact of each risk factor. The software must accommodate expert scores which must be automatically collated.
The output must enable me to see which risk factors are more riskier and then do some further quantitative risk analysis to develop weights for each risk factor which can be used on a case study?
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Thanks all for the pointers, i am looking into all the suggested softwares.
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In spite of the good  intentions of the CRO in the public sector,  sh/e is quite often coerced to submission through orchestrated blackmail , insults, and sometimes physical threats especially in the developing world. What is the situation in the DCs and how can the CRO be more operationally functional?
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While working as Quality Manager and dealing with risk assessment, I have learnt quite a few lessons. Your question is very substantial. First of all, determine the role of the CRO as a team member as an outsider is unlikely to receive cooperation from anybody let alone the senior management. The story of developing countries is different. However in the developed world, or international corporations, it is expected that risk management is part of the overall strategy in the long run. In this pretext, the second question is to determine if the corporation is pursuing a short-term or a long-term strategy; for example if it is out there to earn a lot of profit and get away with it leaving the consumers/customers high and dry, then you may think of departing your ways as a conscientious professional. 'The Impulse Society'  by Paul Roberts provides a lot of insight into such situations and the mindset of individuals who basically run these corporations.
Hope it will be of some use.
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Modern societies are increasingly concerned in preventing risks that can cause unsafe events. There are even strategies that proclaim a risk-free environment by adapting a 'Zero Accident Vision'. My question is: are we, as modern societies, more capable of protecting and securing ourselves from harm and unsafe events than before, say, the 1960's? Or are we simply substituting old risks for new ones?
If there are papers available that address this question I would really like to know more about them.
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A good example to highlight zero-risk is the car industry’s effort for zero-emission and zero-fatality.
Electric vehicles are promoted as the zero-emission mobility. When one inquires the source of power, it is evident that the carbon foot print is not zero. But car industry is trying to improve their product.  The bulk of car market is petrol cars; electric car is still too expensive. Hence zero emission is a target. Diesel engines go a long way and upsurge in car with diesel engine in Europe is a testimony for it (ignore Volkswagen faux pas).
Car industry has also made great progress in zero-fatality. The industry is striving to achieve virtually zero fatalities and serious injuries in accidents involving its vehicles.  If you see injury and fatality due to car accident, you will see a drop (for new cars).
Zero-risk should be our target. We can close the gap by research.
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I want to explain the relationship between diversification, bank risk and performance, and provide me any published quantitative papers related for this issue.
Best Regards,
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Salam Faris, 
in general, the diversification, of investment portfolio for example, associates with lower risk. for instance, if we have a portfolio and we invest in the financial securities of many different sectors and in many different countries, this will reduce the risk of loss, because  if there is a problem in one sector or a country, it would not be in the other sector or country. however, since the diversification policy is more conservative, this may lead to lower returns than if we would have invested in a profitable company with higher returns. 
hope that helps
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I am trying to develop a risk-based strategic planning framework for infrastructure projects, in the electricity sector.
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Risk management interacts strongly with the whole project.
Once the concept of the project is defined you should consider a "risk analysis" step : identify the regulations, laws, norms, ... to take into account and related to risk and safety. This depends on the localisation, on the technical field, etc. 
Then, once this is done, the risk management starts really and continues parallel to the other activities but with strong interactions with the others teams.
At each stage, verification of the proper consideration of safety requirements will be performed.
Sometimes external experts will be invited to assess the work during the project and deliver at the end of the whole project a certificate. This is sometimes required to put into service.
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Kindly, How to use maximum likelihood method or any other method to parametrize a mathematical model to discuss risk analysis?
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If your (probabilistic) model governing the data creation is well-specified, then the method of Maximum Likelihood Estimation is literally finding those parameters that optimize the likelihood function given the observed data.
Under standard assumptions, the likelihood function is the product of the probability model n times (number of data observations). This function will have specific form in the parameters.
Suggest the following to get you started:
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I am looking for an aggregate risk measure such as beta-risk that lends itself for disaggregation into its individual underlying risks or vice versa?
I want to use this measure or method for the investment appraisal of infrastructure investments.
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Dear Felix Humpert
Greetings,
Please find the attached file may be useful for you.
Best Regards
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Short version:
I am searching for a method to relate beta risk - assuming it can be calculated - to the underlying risks of a real investment such as an infrastructure investment or vice versa? 
I have done a lot of reading and suspect such a method does not exist. Any thoughts or opinions?
---------------------
Long version:
Let's say I have an investment project such as an infrastructure investment for which I could estimate the beta in accordance with the CAPM.
The CAPM differentiates between systematic (beta) risk, which is rewarded by the market, and unsystematic (non-beta) risk, which can for the most part be diversified away and accordingly is not rewarded.
Textbooks have plenty of definitions and examples on what systematic and unsystematic risk are, but these only give one a general understanding of what it means for a risk to be potentially diversifiable. Yet, when one is confronted with an actual project such as an infrastructure investment that faces a plethora of risks such as currency risk, construction risk, policy risk, etc. I think it would be a legitimate question to ask:
What are the risks actually captured by the beta? 
In other words:
Are there any methods/concepts/approaches to relate beta risk to the underlying risks of a real investment (e.g. wind farm, bridge or tunnel) or vice versa?
Why would somebody be interested in this question? Because if only beta risks are rewarded, a diligent investor should make sure to be diversified in the non-beta risks in order to not being exposed to them unnecessarily. In addition - although it is never possible to know all risks ex-ante - a mindful investor would probably want to know for which risks he or she will likely be compensated for.   
Any insights or remarks with respect to the question asked would be very much appreciated. 
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Dear Prof. Humbert,
                                   I can draw an analogy with the market for lemons, which is that the higher priced market usually does a better job of sorting the lemons because say it can invest more in private information. This is the Rothschild and Stiglitz explanation in their Increasing Risk.. paper as far as I can tell. So if you are looking for a strategic finance answer I would say pick the higher priced stocks and model them using CAPM by taking appropriate number of observations and various portfolios. You will find an optimal portfolio which will be efficient i.e. Arrow-Debreu equilibrium portfolio..I think I have proved, please refer to my paper on Pareto Optimality on my RG page if you will, that it is possible to replicate market portfolios in quant. fin. by learning under certain conditions and this is first best so that full information is revealed after getting rid of the idosyncratic stocks or unknowable and therefore undiversifiable stocks. Earl Prof. (Sir Ashutosh Mukherjee University Institute Chair Professor) Dr. (D. Phil.) SKM QC EPS Fellow (Indirect) MRES MES MAICTE
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I'm doing my study on risk assessment on every location and activities at primary schools in my state. I'm giving risk rating value based on risk matrix table. I need some articles related to this as a supporting evidence and as a comparison with other countries.
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Dear faris,
Thank you very much for your response and attachment of risk assessment tool. It's really helpful.
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I am very interested in the latest social license to operate scientific insights for projects in the oil, gas and mining industry
1. social risk analysis : 
- scientific quantitative and qualitative social (and political) risk analysis, both collective and individual 
-  advanced social group risk analysis
2. on stakeholder engagement
- tri-partite stakeholder engagement dynamics between state, private sector and civil society, the effect of the quality of the relation between A and B for C
- multi stakeholder mechanisms to build or restore trust in negotiation and monitoring of agreements
3. the interplay between perceived and measured risks by social actors
determining indicators to analyse and measure individual and collective group characteristics 
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When I saw your question I looked through the answers with the hope of finding more research done in this area. My PhD is based on the dynamics of stakeholder engagement, with a focus on the emerging shale gas industry in UK.
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I have been required to attend a formal course in supervising PhD-students, in spite of having 20 years of experience of such. As a way of examination, I had to give a one hour talk on the topic "Risk, perception, and mitigation of doctoral education", which was based on an extensive literature review of mine.
It surprised me to learn the strength of risk-minimization actions applied by university management (at all levels) on doctoral education.
You can view the talk at the attached link. (Skip the first minute as it is in Swedish and nothing of relevance is being said).
I would particularly appreciate comments on the following questions:
Do you recognize the situation in your University?
In your experience, are the public and the media apt on reporting on the doctoral education?
What external threats do you identify for the universities reputation w r t doctoral education?
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There is a continuum of risks:
1) The university closes down through lack of doctoral throughput and lack of continuing professional education.
2) The human capital reserves do not grow, and the university falls behind in world rankings.
3) The university maintains its ranking.
4) The university grows its human capital and throughput and becomes a higher-ranking university.
Management should naturally be concerned and do everything to encourage 4) and discourage 1).
Management is therefore concerned about how the world perceives the university. Its Public Relations arm even resorts to selective reporting of the many indexes available in order to pick the one that enhances the university's image the most. Creating and continuing the education of doctoral candidates and supervisors then gets lost in the Press Releases. The long term effect of this is that university management starts managing by the numbers in the press releases, instead of enhancing the university's intellectual prowess. This is the “Quality and Value” of their work, as mentioned by Debra. Surely this prowess is the most important metric for ranking universities?
Yes, there is rationale behind management not favouring the “bads” of “silly, soft and suspect” research. It gives the university a bad name if it is always winning IgNobel prizes.
Management do not have good numbers on the bads and goods. Neither do they do formal or even intuitive analysis of the stats.
Can we force the supervisors to study how to supervise? My inaugural lectures were on "How to Supervise Research” and attendance dropped off exponentially!
Also how many “highly unsilly, highly unsoft and highly unsuspect” candidates should supervisors allow into the system to undertake cutting edge research? There is a different risk, that their candidates will not graduate.
My own approach is to inform the student of all the hidden aspects (crafts, culture) of research, to improve the student's chance of success in the minimum duration.
The supervisor has a mental model of factors mitigating (predicting) success in the minimum duration, and we can surely rely on his / her judgement, ensuring that the supervisor regards the candidate as his / her own.
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If I am doing a cross sectional study can I represent the results by calculating the Relative Risk.
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You cannot use the relative risk because you do not have incidence data. Prevalent cases may not be good measures of incidence where the disorder is brief, episodic or fatal. 
However, you can use the prevalence ratio, which is easier to interpret than the odds ratio. Indeed, many people report what are prevalence ratios but call them relative risks. While this habit is common, it is not to be encouraged. The ratio of two prevalences is, well, a prevalence ratio.
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I am interested in calculating the human health risk to exposure of PCBs, PAHs, and heavy metals in surface soil. Which approach is therefore more appropriate to use in this circumstance. Explanation of the variables in equations will be welcome..... 
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Perhaps the three publications attached are a good starting point!
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We are doing a global research in Risk & Threat, who would like to participate:
 Regards Mark
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Dear Prof. von Rosing,
The topic is certainly interesting for me and my colleagues at the university. We have been conducting research on financial risks and risk measurements for some time and would be interested in participating.
Best regards,
 Stanimir Kabaivanov
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I am trying to distinguish between risk aversion to one's self versus risk aversion to one's employer (company) when making decisions at work.  That is, does an employee assume the risks of the company as their own personal risks?
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Let me know if you wat to be involved
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As in Italy we have not developed  national depth-damage curves, it is necessary the use of curves developed in other contexts, for a flood risk analysis.
For my work I chose the Atlas Rhine curve but, maybe, there's a problem: this is based on land use maps, i.e. for mesoscale analysis, while my work is on a microscale analysis.
it is permissible to do so with the appropriate considerations?
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From what I know the FLEMO uses discrete values up to 6-7 meters, while the curve that interests me should go up to values of 9-10 meters.
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