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Risk Analysis - Science topic
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Questions related to Risk Analysis
hi, I am doing a risk analysis of a cylindrical fuselage with windows. I have applied contact interactions between the different parts, and I have applied a unit value load to a reference point, joining the displacements of that point to my figure. however, the lpf comes out constant, and does not come out as it should, as I understand that it should come out a maximum and then decrease.
attached is my load proporcionality factor plot
does anyone know what this is due to?
Hi everyone,
I'm working on a project related to seismic risk analysis and I am searching for online tools that provide hazard curves and hazard disaggregation for various locations around the world.
I'm familiar with the USGS Earthquake Hazard tools. However, I'd like to explore options from other countries or research institutions.
Examples of specific tools or resources you've found helpful would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks in advance for your insights!
Sincerely
Babak Ghods
model
methodology
analysis
inputs
out puts and other related issue
How does one ethically deal with typos? Why? I would first follow tradition(traditional meanings), secondly risk analysis(risks of interpretation) and then thirdly skin in the game(the right to opine depends on the price the person pays for incorrectness). On a side note, those ethics lead me to negative utilitarianism for an open society. The virtues depend on enlightenment instead of goodness, thus they may be empathy, common sense, and symmetry. StimulI:
Politics:
General Ethics:
Metaphysics:
Linguistics:
Who agrees life is more about preventing tragedies than performing miracles? I welcome elaborations.
Should we address physicians as Doctors and PhD holders as Doctorates? My answer: All policy is ultimately derived from tradition(survival HEURISTICs by which populations survived and then reproduced into the current ones), risk analysis(a human operates based on incomplete knowledge because knowing everything is not humanly possible. Thus humans operate based on analyzing risks), and skin in the game(paying a price for being wrong thus being incentivized to operate in a certain way that yields a certain desired result). Therefore, addressing physicians as doctors is a matter of public safety through risk analysis. By and large, as goes the common question "Is there a doctor in the room?" Asking "is there a doctor in the room?" commonly is to find out if a physician is nearby enough to deal with a medical emergency. Instead of, "Is there a physician in the room?" Thus doctor is engrained culturally to mean physician. But still, the etymology of doctor means teacher. Therefore, maybe we should address any PhD holder as Doctorate(insert last name) and any MD holder as Doctor(insert last name). Plus, sometimes the degree in of itself is known as a doctor instead of a doctorate. Therefore, why not call PhD holders doctorates?
Are disincentives the arche? How? Why?
My answer: Disincentives are highly probably the arche. How?: Any entity is more guided more by disincentives than by incentives. Why?: Disincentives may be the arche assuming the least but following the most evidence. Two other explanations for arches may be risks and or vibrations.
Source for vibrations:
Thesis The Arche May be Vibrations
Source for risks:
It would be helpful for me if anyone give some idea about a probabilistic model for ship capsizing risk analysis so that I could be able to go forward for my research.
How can genetic engineering be implemented while abiding by the ethics derived from tradition, then risk analysis and finally skin in the game?
For the sake of social harmony and cohesion, I will keep my more metaphysical questions to myself and or academia, and I will try to follow the golden rule(treat others how I would like to be treated) and hope that others do the same. I will try to follow tradition, then risk analysis, then skin in the game for my ethics while obeying the legal system and upsetting people only when necessary for survival.
Greetings from the world geophysics and seismology community
I am searching to find a practical, and important topic for my Ph.D. thesis.
Professors and those who view this post, if they are interested in doing joint international projects between the two countries, please share your topics and suggestions with me.
I will write my favorite topics for you and if possible, I would like to know your opinions
sincerely
*Earthquake engineering and risk analysis
**Application of seismology in oil exploration and extraction
***Data science and machine learning
What mechanisms are adequate to effectively protect nations' critical infrastructures. I believe that it is necessary to develop new cybersecurity frameworks that take risk analysis as a solid basis for protecting them.
Does the application of artificial intelligence to automate credit scoring processes of potential borrowers allow to improve credit risk management processes and increase profitability of commercial banks' lending activities?
Does the application of specific artificial intelligence technologies for the automation of risk analysis processes, the execution of credit scoring processes for potential individual credit transactions, the ongoing monitoring of open credit transactions and the analysis of changes in the level of credit risk significantly allow the improvement of credit risk management processes and the optimisation of credit processes in the context of improving the profitability of commercial banks' lending activities?
Commercial banks operating according to the classic deposit and credit banking model generate revenues and profits mainly from lending activities. On the one hand, the formation of the quality of the bank loan portfolio and the level of financial results are determined by external factors, i.e. the economic situation in the economy, the economic environment of the bank's customers, borrowers taking bank loans and depositors placing their financial surpluses on bank deposits. On the other hand, the efficiency of the lending business and the development of financial results are also influenced by internal factors, which primarily include the efficiency of the credit risk management process. The credit risk management process is carried out on a stand-alone basis in terms of examining the creditworthiness of the potential or current borrower (ongoing monitoring of the loan granted) and the credit risk the bank accepts in the situation of granting a loan. The credit risk management process is also carried out in banks on a portfolio basis with regard to the entire portfolio of loans granted and by type of loan. Both in terms of the individual and portfolio risk management process, banks are seeking to improve and optimise these processes through the involvement of new information technologies and Industry 4.0. Thanks to these new technologies, banks have the possibility to transfer part of their risk management processes to the bank's internal IT systems and to offer loans also and increasingly via the Internet. Loans of relatively low amounts, consumer loans, instalment loans, i.e. mainly granted to the public, and working capital loans to businesses can already be entirely remote communication with the customer via the Internet. In the case of home and business loans, including investment loans, banks require the borrower to provide various business-related documents to carry out a creditworthiness analysis and examine a number of different economic, financial, operational, investment risk factors, etc., which can be used as a basis for the creditworthiness analysis. As a result, the process of granting these types of business, investment and housing loans, which are usually also for relatively higher amounts, is not yet fully feasible via the Internet when the process of granting these loans itself is not expected to generate high operational risks for banks. However, ongoing technological advances may also change this significantly in the future. At present, banks are trying to implement new Industry 4.0 technologies into their lending activities in order to improve and optimise their costs. The use of new Industry 4.0 technologies in banks is also determined by the need to improve computerised cyber-security systems with a view to constantly improving cyber-security. Recently, key Industry 4.0 technologies that banks are implementing into their operations include artificial intelligence, machine learning technology, deep learning, Big Data Analytics, cloud computing, Internet of Things, Blockchain, multi-criteria simulation models, digital twins, etc. Particularly new opportunities arise in terms of improving both remote marketing communication techniques, optimising banking procedures, reducing the scale of the bank's operational risks and also improving credit procedures and the credit risk management process by involving artificial intelligence in the bank's operations.
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:
Does the application of specific artificial intelligence technologies for the automation of risk analysis processes, the execution of credit scoring processes for potential individual credit transactions, the ongoing monitoring of open credit transactions and the analysis of changes in the level of credit risk make it possible to improve credit risk management processes and the optimisation of credit processes to a significant extent in the context of improving the profitability of commercial banks' lending activities?
And what is your opinion on this topic?
What is your opinion on this subject?
Please respond,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz

I am trying to understand the fuel loads of a residential building (or any other type of occupancy) in a formal and an informal settlement. Please suggest some literature in English and possibly open-access journals.
Thanks
Hello, does anyone know how I can get the PRIAMUS software ?
The software can allow you to do the Monte carlo simulation for seismic risk analysis
Thanks in advance.
want to the detailed information on portfolio risk and how we can analyze the risk.
I'm replicating Fama-French five factor mode. I have formed factor portfolios. I'm not sure how to the average monthly percent excess returns for portfolios. In other words, I want to get the Table 1 in their paper.
Thanks in advance
The cause-specific hazard model and the Fine-Gray subdistribution model are well known methods of competing risk analysis, but both assumes proportional hazards. Is there any method of handling competing risks that does not assume that? A google search didn't turn out very useful. Would be especially grateful if the specified methods have a Stata implementation too! Thank you in advance
Although there are many mathematical approaches to model epistemic uncertanties in risk analysis, it is very unusual. What you think about that?
Dear Colleagues,
I am trying to understand the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping for Urban Risk Analysis. However, I have no idea how to organize my collected data in Excel Dataset or SPSS Dataset to analyze them for Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping. I am focusing on Disaster impact and its causal relationship with other variables.
Please help me to understand the data organization process in Excel Dataset or SPSS Dataset. I know these maps can be created by FCMapper or Mental Modeler.
Thanks in advance
Do you have any suggestions on articles that discuss risk analysis and risk management aimed at safety in the workplace?
Thank you all.
Are credit rating agencies currently reliably assessing the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions, including issuers of securities?
One of the factors that generated a high scale of negative aspects of the global financial crisis in 2008 was the practice of unreliably carried out assessments of the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions, including issuers of securities and certain financial instruments offered to individual clients by commercial banks. Have the financial supervisory authorities developed effective instruments to enforce the reliability of credit risk analysis procedures in investment banks and rating agencies? Do financial systems work more effectively than in 2008? Do credit rating agencies reliably carry out an assessment of the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions?
Please, answer, comments.
I invite you to the discussion.
Best wishes

I am looking for population exposure data for village-level risk analysis. Can you help me to get the LandScan Global Population Database?
The scientific journals that are needed are:
- Environmental.
- Earth sciences.
- Hazard and risk analysis
Thanks.
Open source and easy to learn with proper documentation.
Competing risk approach and bankruptcy
I have EC50 and LC50 values and wanted to calculate PEC for different species in water. I have currently considered acute risk with an assessment factor of 100 based on a previous similar publication. Please advise.
Hi,
I am trying to use Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool for a systematic review. But I couldn't figure out how to use the tool to score a single study.
Can someone who previously wrote systematic reviews and have risk analysis data share with me?
thank you so much
I am using the moments-based approach to calculate the risk premium of growing a specific crop. As proposed by Chavas (Kim and Chavas,2003 and Chavas et al,2009) I used CRRA risk preference. Then incorporate moments (variance and skewness) into the equation used by Antle (1987). I got a problem as variance and skewness are in large numbers (into the power of 10^7 sometimes) the calculated risk premium is a huge number. I guessed that there is something wrong here. Can anyone suggest of a source of information of the detailed risk calculation using the moments-based approach?
Hallo zusammen,
gerne wollte ich in unserer Projektgruppe GPW Young Crop Science das Thema "Kooperation" aufgreifen. Ich finde es sehr wichtig, dass man sich untereinander austauscht und - falls es thematisch passt - auch Kooperationen mit Kollegen aus anderen Instituten/Universitäten innerhalb und außerhalb von Deutschland eingeht. Man gewinnt an Erfahrung, lernt viel Neues und oft entsteht am Ende auch eine gemeinsame Publikation - was richtig klasse ist.
Falls ihr mögt, könntet ihr - hier in dieser Diskussionsgruppe - eure momentanen Forschungsgebiete mit möglichen Kooperationswünschen posten. Vielleicht findet sich die eine oder andere Interessenüberschneidung und es entstehen im besten Fall neue Kooperationen! Das wäre doch klasse, oder?
In meinem Fall wäre ich an Kooperationen auf dem Forschungsgebiet "Ertragsstabilität & Risikoanalyse" interessiert, d.h. Bewertung von verschiedenen Anbausystemen, Düngestrategien, Fruchtfolgen, Zwischenfruchtanbau, und besonders interessiert bin ich an der Auswertung von Dauerfeldversuchen. Falls jemand Interesse hat, würde ich mich sehr über eine Nachricht freuen.
Ich freue mich auf eure Rückmeldungen!
Janna
The risk management process includes identifying risks, analyzing and responding to risks, and then escorting and controlling throughout the project life cycle. The methodology used at each stage of the risk management process is different. The question here is about the most important two stages, which are identifying and analyzing risks, and what is the difference in the methodology in these two stages?
There is no doubt that the pillars of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (for example: the Internet of Things) will play a very big role in improving and developing the performance of risk analysis techniques. In your opinion, how will this be?
Hi, I am looking for research topic (ideas) and current research trends on international business management. It will be good to have what will be future research scope on International Business Management. I am particularly interested in these ( Risk analysis, operation, project management, strategy, digital marketing, leading people ) research. But these are not limiting factor, please leave your comment, I will surely look into it. Looking forward to your answers. Regards
I am looking for where I can acquire useful information from wells for an integrity project
The website version is already available but it is time consuming to feed manually.
The software is in need very urgent. Please let me know ASAP.
I am doing a project and I need to know what the advantages and disadvantages are for qualiitative and quantitative risk analysis?
I am looking for case studies of actual privacy risks. At the core of privacy and data protection impact assessments, we find the concept of 'risk' meaning - in this case - the probability of a threat to personal data and the possible harm or damage caused by this threat. E.g. I fall victim to a phishing attack and the attacker gains access to my bank account, the actual harm being that my account is emptied. Another example would be that my account at a social media platform is hacked and my identity is used to "go shopping".
Now, one finds a lot of literature on privacy (PIA) and data protection impact assessments (e.g. the edited volume by Wright and De Hert (2012) on PIA), on the potential risks of low levels of data security (e.g. Rosner, Kenneally (2018): Clearly Opaque: Privacy Risks of the Internet of Things), on technological and organization standards (e.g. ISO 27001 on Information security management), or on the regulatory frameworks of privacy and data protection (e.g. everything on the details of the GDPR in the EU). But I have a hard time to find research results evaluating actual risks similar to your risk to fall victim to a traffic accident, have your home being broken into, or get cancer.
I would welcome any hint to empirical publications on actual privacy risk analysis be it from medical, social, internet-based or any other research that you consider as most important. I am *not* looking for literature on how to conduct privacy and data protection impact assessments or standards for this purpose. Thank you.
Risk perception is the tendency for people to have different dramatically estimates of risk probability and impact given the same information. The following are the important factors that are known to impact risk perception.
Outlook, Sour Grapes, Ambiguity, False Analog, Survivorship Bias,
Mere Exposure Effect, Curse of Knowledge, Magical Assumptions and motivated reasoning
How much they affect the risk analysis and risk treatment as well as risk management strategy
I am trying to show uncertainity of total health risk of heavy metals through consumption. I konw about primavera risk analysis tools. But i how to input deta on it is a problem to me. Can anyone share it how to input dataset on it. However, want to know resemble easy free tools like primavera.. Thanks for advance.
Is anyone aware of any studies of discourse involving 'high stakes' (or risk) talk, and cautionary responses to perceived environments of high stakes?
For those that may not be familiar with the term, LSM is NOT a bar chart or Gantt chart. LSM is a robust production-based algorithm that greatly simplifies the visual description of project progress. It provides an easy to understand picture of key production relationships rather than mapping activity relationships as is done in CPM. Thus, it seems to be a means to measure production risk which in turn drives schedule risk. We are looking for recent research or practical applications in the literature. The team is multilingual so papers or reports in languages other than English are welcome.
Cheers
Doug
risk management, risk analysis
The issue of corporate governance is very important and directly affects the efficiency of the entity's operation, the relationships between the recruiters employed at various levels of the organization and indirectly also on the relations between business entities and contractors and clients. Corporate governance is therefore particularly important in terms of the long-term development of an economic entity, also in terms of its successes in the competitive game and the holding of specific positions and shares in the markets of the sold product or service offer.
In my opinion, most parameters in the area of corporate governance research in enterprises, companies, corporations and financial institutions are the same but not all. The same are those that relate to the issues of analogous models used, concepts of managing the entire organization, personnel management, offer, marketing, innovation, relations with contractors, shareholders, clients, etc. In contrast, differences arise in terms of specific differences regarding accounting, specificity business activity, risk analysis, prudential procedures used, IT technologies that support the operation of individual departments and departments, the specificity of the work positions of the staff employed, etc.
I invite you to the discussion

I want to collect some data using BART but cannot find a downloadable version for eprime?
Looking for collaboration on risk analysis, if you are skilled in using @RISK and interested, kindly send me a personal mail bernardonoja@yahoo.com
After having long discussions with other fellow researchers and agronomists, I have yet to find an answer to this question. I've read many papers that mention positive impacts of N fertilisation in water limited environments (i.e. Barraclough, P. B., Kuhlmann, H., & Weir, A. H. (1989). The effects of prolonged drought and nitrogen fertilizer on root and shoot growth and water uptake by winter wheat. Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science, 163(5), 352-360), while others mention that this would happen in wetter areas (more than 300 mm of annual precipitation; Sadras, V. (2002). Interaction between rainfall and nitrogen fertilisation of wheat in environments prone to terminal drought: economic and environmental risk analysis. Field Crops Research, 77(2-3), 201-215). I understand that increasing the Nitrogen nutrition index of any crop would result in increased water used efficiency. Thus, if water is scarce and we can use it more efficiently by increasing N fertilisation, this would be a preferred choice.
What are your ideas on this matter? Should farmers increase or decrease N fertilisation in dry years?
I am planning to include "risk behaviour and time preference of smallholder farmers" as factors that affect their decision to adopt long-term improved soil and water conservation practices in Ethiopia. For this I need to construct simple questions which are easy to be understood by farmers. If you have any idea, please, forward it.
I have 1 independent (software development method)variable divided in two groups(agile method, heavyweight method) 5 dependent variables(satisfaction,communication,quality, risk analysis, clients demands) each variable have 1 item(scale). how can I find EFA or CFA in this case where each variable have 1 item. every item have 7 likert scale options. responses are 396. can I apply CFA on all variables togather.? please explain?
I want the fragility and capacity curves for an earthquake risk analysis
how to make an isolateable section, can anyone give example using a P&ID
What could be the limitations of such analysis?
There appears to be a dearth of serious analysis as to just how great a risk of terrorist attack we face. Individual research, e.g. Stewart and Mueller suggests a greatly exaggerated threat. So what is any government's response to this, have they conducted any proper risk analysis and if so, what are the results? This is vital if we are to have a serious debate on terrorism and counter-terrorism. In addition, any governmental cost-benefit analysis of security measures would be most welcome as part of the debate.
I am using SPSS and I am not familiar with the aforementioned programs. The last time I had to calculate a competing risk analysis, I had to get an appointment with a statistician.
So, I want to know if there is any possibility to calculate a competing risk analysis for instance in SPSS?
If not, can somebody tell me a quick and easy way how to perform a CR-analysis in R?
We are currently building a medical prediction platform (Evidencio) for researchers and physicians to facilitate translation of scientific articles to medical practice (www.evidencio.com). Evidencio is a platform created for and by scientists/physicians that allows for easy external validation of prediction models as well as conversion to easy-to-use online calculators for everyday practice.
Which (type of) prediction models would be most usefull for you to add to the platform? And, as a researcher/physician, would you be interested in adding your own prediction model to the platform?
how to start research in the field hazard identification and risk analysis in industry?
what are the techniques?
Current age is that of a cyber warfare. What the the various ICT security issues that the military face because of its enemies. Especially, what are the economic impacts of those issues on the country and its army?
Bisphenol A (BPA), as well as some other bisphenols, are hormone disrupting chemicals potentially present in conventional receipts that you and I are handling every day. Recentrly we have made a study in Denmark ("Bisphenol A and its structural analogues in household waste paper", Pivnenko et. al., 2015) and showed that BPA, as well as bisphenol S (BPS), are present in concentrations up to 1.7% in conventional receipts. Are you aware of BPA (or BPS) present in receipts in your country? Could you refer to studies (published or unpublished) quantifying them? Please share your information openly or in a private message. Any help is appreciated.
I use IEEE and NEPA standard from one USA software for Arc Flash Hazard and risk analysis but I am interesting are any paper which consider in IEC standard for this mater not IEEE.
Thanks in advance
Srete
Risk assessment
Risk management
Risk analysis
Threat impact
Likelihood
What if the Relative Risk value is zero? Does that indicate there is no association between the risk and the disease?
Dear colleagues,
I am looking for a way to obtain absolute risk reduction, relative risks, relative risk reduction and NNT from logistic regression models based on the paper of Austin (2010 - see attached) using (preferably) a mix of Excel, SPSS and/or Mplus. I have problems applying the manuscripts content to my data. I guess I can calculate the ARR, RR, RRR and NNT with Excel; however, calculating the confidence intervals via bootstrap would be problematic. Any help with the application of the manuscript would be very welcome!
I am new to survival analysis and am having difficulty choosing how to analyze my dataset.
The background is that I have a pretty big dataset that is in essence national level statistics for a disease that includes ~22,000 subjects, with slightly over 65K observations over five years.
The 'final state' of the patients can be:
- Death (due to disease),
- Death (due to other causes),
- Cure,
- Completed Treatment (but did not cure),
- Fail Treatment (did not complete treatment for some reason),
- Default (Lost-to-follow up), and
- Continuing Treatment.
All told there are about ~2700 deaths, ~5000 cures, and ~7400 completed treatment patients, of course a whole lot of unknowns, and many co-variates which I can analyze (e.g. age, gender, homelessness, etc).
Most of the literature I have read about competing risks talks about competing risks of death (e.g. 1 vs 2) but not cure (#3) as an alternate endpoint.
I'd like to analyze my data comparing/contrasting aspects of both cure and death and wondered if competing risks analysis is appropriate?
Hi,
I have been doing some research and couldn't find any solution to how calculate the coefficient of absolute risk aversion (CARA) and coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA).
A lot of articles and lectures in universities are always showing the formulas, (CARA=U''(x)/U'(x)) but I couldn't find a concrete example of how these were calculated.
So I was struggling to calculate my exercise:
a. Suppose a risk-averse agent is given an asset that will pay off 1 with probability .5 and will pay off 2 with probability .5. He is just indifferent between keeping this asset and exchanging it for an asset that will pay off 1.25 for sure. What can you say about his coefficient of absolute risk aversion?
Expected Value asset A E(x) = (0.5 * 1 = 0.5) + (0.5 * 2 = 1.0) = 1.5
Utility of Expected Value is = ln (1.5) = 0.41
Lower Utility for risk-averse agent = 0.5*ln(1) + 0.5*ln(2) = 0.35
Certainty Equivalent = ln(X) = 0.35 = e^0.35 = 1.42
Risk Premium = Expected Value – Certainty Equivalent = 1.5 – 1.42 = 0.08
Expected Value asset B = E(x) = 1 * 1,25 = 1,25
Arrow-Pratt measure of absolute risk aversion A = U’’(x)/U’(x) = ?
b. Now suppose instead that the same agent as in (a) is given an asset that pays off either 2 or 4 with equal probability. If his coefficient of absolute risk aversion is the same as in (a) what is the certain payoff that would leave him equally well-off as holding the risky gamble?
c. Now suppose as in (b) that the agent is given an asset that pays off either 2 or 4 with equal probability. You learn that he is indifferent between keeping this risky gamble and exchanging it for an asset that pays 2.5 for sure. What can you say about his coefficient of absolute risk aversion in this case?
Could somebody help a bit please?
We are looking for a pragmatical approach for the complete risk analysis and for the summary which is part of the regulatory documentation of a marketing authorisation.
I am using SPSS, and I don't know how to incorporate the risk (chances of someone being unemployment). PS: I am not trying to check the pattern of unemployment and education.
probability of occurrence,potential loss,The chance of error,How risk is appraised?,Hazard Identification,Exposure Quantification....
Hello,
What is the proper approach or method that would help me to identify risk factors that are common to any Megaprojects? i.e. how can I develop a list of risk factors that can happen to any Megaprojects in the future?
Note: Megaprojects are large scale construction projects that cost more that $1 billion, which are very risky, complex, uncertain, unique, and sensitive towards social-environmental-economic-political aspects.
Best regards.
Dear all, my topic changed slightly to Financial Risk Analysis in Not-for-Profit Organisations.
Any material that is helpful will be appreciated. Also, I need the financial reports of at least four not-for-profitsFinancial report from 2010-2015.
Thank you.
In the risk assessment (especially fire risk) there is some agreement regarding the basic acceptable risk level - lower than the natural death level. Defined as: "the risk of one death with a probability of less than 1 per million of persons per year".
Which society has natural death level at 1*10-6? Do you know where are the roots of such definition of the acceptable risk level?
Kind regards,
Adam
I am working on the thesis topic ''Assessment of Risk Perception and Risk attitudes among managers and individuals in non-profit organisation.''
Many thanks