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Radiative Forcing - Science topic

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Dear ResearchGaters
Many thanks for helpful answers in the past. If you have time, please can you look at the following table taken from
Radiative Forcing in CE 1750 was taken to be 0 W/m2
“ “ 1950 “ 0.57 = W/m2
“ “ 1980 “ 1.25 = W/m2
“ “ 2011 “ 2.29 = W/m2
What I would like to clarify is, what are the working figures – how many watts, what is the area? is it the surface area of the Earth?
Any help would be gratefully received!
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Your question is very interesting. I too need the answer to this problem.
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Methane (CH4) is nearly 86 times stronger as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (CO2) (Dean, 2020). Scientists believe roughly one-fifth of the increase in radiative forcing by human-linked greenhouse gases since 1750 is due to CH4 (Nisbet et. al., 2014, Javadinejad et. al, 2019).
How would you connect the findings of Nisbet/Javadinejad and Dean? If you find methane to be more harmful, then how much is it contributing to global climate change? In such case, why the global climate research community and policymakers are prioritizing CO2 reduction over CH4?
**
You may have a look on my thesis to know more about the impact of methane on our environment.
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Prior to 1990 the halogenated coumpounds were a pretty big component of greenhouse gases.
The banning of these have been a success story for the GHG and ozone hole stabilization.
After carbon dioxide methane then nitrous oxides are the most important.
When dealing with the overall warming issue the important thing is the gross emissions jmust substract the sequestrations to get the net continuing effect.
The warming of the environment is driving emissions higher because of the melting of the tundra.
To resolve a runaway greenhouse gas effect on global warming the simply reding of emissions will not be effective beside the reduction of emissions we need to more effective in the sequestration.
Methane needs better focus on the losses from the gas lines and the use of a new generation of methane combustion which can make methan a low carbon resource.
Much methane is related to our global agriculture rice and ruminants and efforts to reduce those are needed.
Nitroous oxides are largely related to fertilizer usage.
The way to address the overall issue is to reduce the emissions sources and accelerate sequestations through our management of agriculture forests and marine resources.
We are able to quantify both emissions and sequestrations and develop invcentives and penalties which will provide a way to address the issues.
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Since indirect and semi-direct effect are related with perturbation in clouds, is it not better to use all-sky radiation(with clouds) instead of clear-sky radiation (without clouds)?
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Many observations and calculations of the atmospheric absorption can be found, but it would appear very few studies on climate had explicitly applied the basic radiative transfer equation in different forms, including scattering and atmospheric radiation. If you know any relevent references or your own papers to share, that would be wonderful.
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Y.C. Zhong thank you so much for your valuable comments.
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I am calculating the radiative forcing of Black carbon using SBDART, I need satellite AOD to compare AOD from OPAC but there is no MODIS data for 3 months (Jul. to Sep. 2019) and no AERONET data. How can I compare AOD?
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In addition to VIIRS, you can try MISR and DSCOVR at their original spatiotemporal resolution. You can also double check MAIAC; even though it is derived from MODIS, it might be possible it provides retrievals even though the ordinary MODIS retrievals return no data. Finally, you can use MERRA2 at hourly resolution, or CAMS-rad at 1-min resolution (use the expert option from http://www.soda-pro.com/web-services/radiation/cams-radiation-service).
Interpolation from monthly data is highly inaccurate and should not be used!
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I'm looking for the matlab code of 6SV model to calculate the Dust, Biomass-Burning, and Anthropogenic radiative forcing. If there anyone who have, please send me a copy. Thank you very much.
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Hello @Bomidi
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I am looking for SBDART model , either online or offline. The online model I found
doesn't seem to work , and the MATLAB code i got from here shows error. Any other source for the model ?
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You can download the SBDART model zip file from this GitHub link:
Then simply in Unix environment you can proceed with SBDART installation using following commands:
unix> gunzip sbdart_2.4.tar.gz
unix> tar xvf sbdart_2.4.tar
unix> make
These documents are very helpful for SBDART installation and input parameters.
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I am interested in looking at the radiative forcing due to BC, I have daily BC concentrations and mass concentrations of water soluble and insoluble elements. I have chosen atmospheric profile as tropical, surface albedo as vegetation and boundary layer aerosols as rural. But when I try to give two profiles for boundary layer aerosols as rural and tropical then I end up with error "can not match namelist object".I am also confused in how to feed OPAC generated values in SBDART.
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The new version of OPAC is out OPAC4.0b
It would be better if you use this most recent version
Seems I cannot upload a copy here as it has.
I have attached the zip, compile and run (Linux system)
SBDART offline version is available in
Clone, compile, and run.
Hope this helps
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I've calculated Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing(DARF) values (W/m2) for Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar City, Gujarat, India using SBDART Model (AOD values as an input) at Top Of Atmosphere (TOA), Surface (Surf) and net Atmospheric Radiative Forcing(Atm).
Please let me know how to interpret these values and how to further analyse the data.
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Hi... Yash
Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing (ADRF) depicts the scattering and absorption of solar radiation by aerosols. the positive values of ADRF indicate the warming and negative values indicate the cooling.
I hope that you have calculated ADRF using up and down radiative flux values. SBDART only provides up and down radiative fluxes later you have to calculate radiative forcing using those values. This method is already published by the many aerosol experts. You can refer to those publications.
Estimated TOA and SFC ADRF indicated the change in flux at TOA and SFC by aerosols. ADRF in the ATM indicates the change in flux within the atmosphere.
Further, you can more clearly associate these estimated radiative forcing to the climate by calculating heating rate. heating rate depicts the warming of the atmosphere. This can easily associate with regional or global climate change.
Herewith I have given you a very basic idea, but I will suggest you to read the related publication and their interpretation. This will give you more idea.
Hope this will help. Feel free to ask me, if you have anything
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Dear All,
I'm working on the projections of Global mean temperature change (observed data obtained from NOAA, 1959-2018) based on green house gas emissions.
For this, I have tested several regression equations but not exactly able to compare these forecasts with IPCC report (TAR and or SR15).
I want to know is there any equation which mathematically or statistically explains these changes in global mean temperature based on CO2 concentrations or CO2 equivalent concentrations in PPM.
In the Radiative Forcing terms, one known reationship is,
delta(t) = Lamdba*delta(F).
where, delta(F) = Radiative forcing = 5.35*log(C(t)/C(0)), where C(0) = 278 PPM (CO2 concentrations in yr 1750).
But issues is that when we plot the calculated temperature change using this equation with observed NOAA data of temperature change, they aren't same. The observed curve is more steep than calculated one.
One more challenge could be the value of Lambda, some are saying that this value is 0.5 or 0.4, but even both values aren't leading to correct curve of temperature change.
What are your thoughts??
Best Regards,
Abhay
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Dear Abhay,
your equation for the radiative forcing, which is based on Myhre et al., 1998, Geophysical Research Letters (and, by the way, is measured in W/m^2) results from a fit of radiative forcing to GHG concentrations based on a line-by-line radiative code. It is a simplification, but likely a reasonable one.
Your factor Lambda, which is known as "climate sensitivity parameter", needs a bit more specification. It is not an explanation (neither statistical nor mathematical), but rather an empirical fit to how much the average global temperature changes with one Watt per square metre change in radiative forcing. It can be calculated form past timeseries of climate data, but also from models. I find the explanation on wikipedia quite helpful:
Its value depends on a number of things, of which the first is whether you look at the equilibrium change in temperature or a transient reaction to a changing CO2 concentration (such as when you fit the time-series against each other). It is thus not terribly surprising that you run into difficulties fitting timeseries for just the last decades to this equation. The whole concept holds best at equilibrium. Other dependencies are the size of internal feedbacks in the earth system (such as changes in water vapour when the average temperature changes). All this makes the exact value of lambda dependent on the timescale at which you look at it, and also on the background climate state (i.e. there were different values of Lambda when the climate state was very different from today).
So briefly my answer would be: Be aware that this simplifying relation is not an explanation, but rather a simplifying fit for the temperature changes with changing greenhouse gas concentrations; the real explanation needs full climate models.
Best regards, Christoph
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I am working on a project on Radiative Forcing due to Black Carbon. The aethelometer data is Mass Concentration but the input needed for OPAC is number density. Is there default conversion value or any other method for this purpose ?
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How do I create the size normal distribution?
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In practice, how is BC GWP estimated from radiative forcing monthly values?
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If you mean the Global Warming Potential (GWP), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the generally accepted values for GWP, which changed slightly between 1996 and 2001. An exact definition of how GWP is calculated is to be found in the IPCC's 2001 Third Assessment Report.
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Hi,
As morphology of the aerosols also play roles in deciding its optical properties & radiative forcing, Is any morphological studies going on under this project?
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Hi Carmen, Thank you
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Aerosol, Black carbon, OPAC, SBDART, AOD, Radiative transfer model
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Thanks Chintan, Babu and others. I got both online and offline versions....Thanks All
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I have estimated monthly BC radiative forcing at a particular location. Now I wanted to estimate the global warming potential using the radiative forcing values. Can anyone explain what the global warming potential refers to and how can I compute the same? 
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@Michel
Hope not to be pedantic but the Aerosol Indirect Effects are even of shorter duration because of the short lifetime of clouds
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I am getting relatively lower downward diffuse flux when I increase the ozone concentration in lower atmosphere at around 40 degree of solar zenith angle. Can we define this effects in terms of multiple scattering ? How?
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Dear Bikas,
I presume (1) you mean "lower downward diffuse solar radiation flux", and (2) you are working with a model of radiation transfer in the atmosphere, where you can modify the vertical profile of ozone concentration. Please confirm this.
Unless you are running your simulations for a region affected by a decrease in the stratospheric ozone (the so-called "ozone hole"), solar radiation is significantly absorbed in the relevant spectral bands (in particular in the UV) within that upper layer. Adding more ozone in the troposphere will have a limited impact in terms of absorption on the total downward irradiance at the planetary surface. However, please indicate how large an increase you are considering.
It is not clear to me that a marginally higher concentration of ozone in the troposphere will significantly change its scattering properties. However, if your model allows for a variety of chemical reactions and interactions between atmospheric gases and pollutants, it is possible that it predicts the formation of other airborne compounds which may result in additional absorption in other spectral bands or in a higher scattering, for instance if this results in the formation of particulates (aerosols).
Please provide additional information on your problem to solicit further ideas and perhaps more appropriate responses. Regards, Michel.
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Hello everyone,
I just started to work with SBDART Radiative Transfer Code. I have downloaded the source files (FORTRAN) on my LINUX machine and compiled it. After that I ran the model for a given INPUT (from examples file).However, results generated from my run are different from those given in example output (for same INPUT). Could anybody explain why I am getting different results? Does SBDART calculation depends on machine?
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It's probably not related to the platform (Linux), but there might be differences in Fortran compilers.
Unfortunately, the developer of SBDART has lost his job many years ago, so the code is not supported and should be considered antiquated.
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I got nearly identical images when plotted both fields.  Can anyone explain?
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If you map data to the 24-category USGS data, then albedo will be given at the model start time, based on the LANDUSE.TBL. Since the initial value is dependent on the landuse type, however, the Noah LSM (since V3.1) does not use the albedo (or any other land properties) from the LANDUSE.TBL. It uses values from the VEGPARM.TBL, and albedo is computed based on vegetation fraction, and boudned by the max and min values given in the VEGPARM.TBL (according to UCAR).
 Do you use the Noah scheme? The difference between the two variables will be important depending the type of soil, the time of the year and the ice/snow (or not) cover. Which area does your domain cover? The "albedo" variable would be an average number depending on the time of the year of your simulations. The background would be the actual one, for instance if you had snowfall during your run, you should have more albedo than without it. 
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Supposing that I have mass concentration profile data of different aerosol species (dry state) along with RH profile from a chemical transport model (CTM). This CTM do have an internal aerosol routine which calculated AOD & SSA. In order to compute aerosol radiative forcing (ARF), one required scatter phase function or asymmetry parameter in addition to AOD & SSA values. Of course, I am aware that atmospheric profile data & surface reflectance information are also needed, which can be obtained respectively from radiosondes (alternately use climatological atmospheric profile that corresponds to the region of study) and MODIS. As per the above description of available data, I chose to use OPAC (assumption of external mixing) to compute the aerosol optical and scattering properties by using mass concentration data of different species. Once I have AOD, SSA and g, I was using the SBDART to compute ARF. 
My main questions are:
(a) Are there studies focused on giving a detailed uncertainty estimate combining all sources of uncertainty from measurements/model simulations till radiative forcing computation (say using offline RT model)?
(b) Is there any study which give the uncertainty in ARF computation by using asymmetry parameter instead of scattering phase function?
(c) What is the uncertainty of a general chemical transport model simulations of aerosol species mass concentrations? 
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Short Answer
A) This is hard
B) most complications come from the unknown scattering physics as the particle size puts you simultaneously in the realm of rayleigh scattering and mie scattering and the composite scattering function is complex and also a function of altitude.
Here are a few references to why this problem is difficult:
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Dear all. There is a queatsion about aerosol bothered me. In the CAM4.0 and the previous version of CAM, the aerosols are prescribed, meaning that the model doesn't include the interaction between aerosol and cloud, and the aerosol chemsitry. IPCC AR5 reported that the radiative focing of the aerosol-cloud interactions is larger than the radiative forcing of aersol-radiative interactions. So, in the CAM4.0 and the previous version of CAM, whether the radiative forcing of aerosols will be underestimated? And in this situation, how does the the model represent the climate change well?
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If  CAM model simulations use prescribed aerosol data, it means that these simulations do not consider the impact of atmosphere on aerosol, but include the impact of aerosol on atmosphere (cloud and radiation).    Note that the prescribed aerosol data used in CAM model considers the impact of atmosphere on aerosol.     Therefore, it's hard to say the radiative forcing of aerosols is underestimated because the aerosols are prescribed in the model. 
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Is there any method available for the estimation of cloud albedo using satellite observation of shortwave and long wave radiation at TOA for clear and all sky? 
How can we calculate cloud albedo?
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Keep in mind that droplet effective radius is proportional to cloud co-albedo, which is one of the key parameters in all estimates of cloud shortwave radiative properties.  To get a better sense of the effect of droplet size on shortwave flux, I would recommend to check an old Tony Slingo’s paper “A GCM parameterization for the shortwave radiative properties of water clouds” published in JAS in 1989.
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It does not matter if the data is a total net forcing or in each individual part.
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Hi,
good question. This depends on what kind of data you want to have.
And always keep in mind that the term "aerosol radiative forcing" only applies to changes in the Earth radiation budget introduced by anthropogenic aerosols.
Do you want to have a global map of radiative forcing values or do you want to compute the forcing yourself from maps of aerosol concentrations?
If you want to have maps of aerosol radiative forcing, you can for example take output from global aerosol climate models, such as those in the AEROCOM intiative. (See link below). However, you have to keep in mind that aerosol radiative forcing strongly varies from model to model, so it might be best to look at the model mean.
If you want to compute the aerosol radiative forcing yourself, e.g with the use of a radiative transfer model, you could take a look at this current aerosol climatology:
Kinne, S., D. O’Donnel, P. Stier, S. Kloster, K. Zhang, H. Schmidt, S. Rast, M. Giorgetta, T. F. Eck, and B. Stevens (2013), MAC-v1: A new global aerosol climatology for climate studies, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 704–740, doi:10.1002/jame.20035.
You can also take a look at the most current IPCC Assessment Report, Chapter 8.
Hope this helps!
Cheers, Karsten
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In my case, I don't think OPAC and SBDART serve my purpose!
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Thank you Narendra Ojha for your interest to respond on the problem. 
From the High Volume Sampler (HVS), I have OC and EC measurements. So, these species mass concentrations were limited to surface and represent the values corresponding to the entire sampling time. OPAC can be used if we have species mass concentration profiles to obtain the column aerosol / species optical properties. I know that we can find the species extinction/scattering coefficient if we have the respective species mass extinction cross-sections. Since OC and EC are non-hygroscopic, it should be easy. Though we can obtain species extinction and scattering coefficients, there is still a missing parameter - asymmetry parameter? How do we obtain this? Any thoughts and suggestions ...
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I want to estimate aerosol direct radiative forcing on IGP region.
Please suggest some dataset and methods for estimation.
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There are so many papers on estimating direct aerosol radiative forcing. You can consult any one for your references. Let me help you with your starting point. (1) you need an aerosol model (or models depending upon type of aerosols) consisting spectarl AOD, spectral SSA, spectral asymmetry parameters etc. (2) now you need a radiative transfer model, I would suggest SBDART, which is good enough for begning and easy to handle. (3) you need atmospheric constituent profiles (water vapour, ozone and other trace gases) for your region of interest, or you can also use SBDART model atmosphere for your beginning. .............So that's all you needed
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Climate sensitivity is the equilibrium temperature change in response to changes of the radiative forcing. Therefore climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Slow climate feedbacks, especially changes of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. (wikipedia)
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Climate sensitivity is important but the dominant effects are associated with potential feedback mechanisms.  Simple models suggest delta T is 1.5 degree C increase with just radiative forcing, but that could be as large as 4-5 C with strong positive cloud feedbacks - of course cloud feedback could be negative as well - so the range of climate change outcomes, in my opinion, is dominated by the overall amplitude of the various feedbacks.
In addition, there is a potential large scale albedo feedback due to changing snow and ice cover.   That feedback cycle is shown in the attached figure:
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Or will anything below 50-60% will do? After all, a majority of particles are in liquid state in this type of environment.
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Dear Jakub,
In marine aerosols you will be mostly dealing with major NaCl bearing sea-salts with say Mg, etc salts as minor mixtures which may be fractionally crystallized at 50-60 % RH levels.
If you would like to scan fully crystallized sea-salt particle size its better to dry as low as possible.. below 4O% RH should be a necessity.
But then it obviously depends on whether you want the particle/droplet sizing in ambient conditions or only the dry-fully crystallized particle sizing. For measuring optical properties/particle sizing by SMPS, I guess one should measure as it is without changing ambient RH (or at RH and Temp. conditions likely to be existing at the sampling site...or the back trajectory conditions the particle experienced)
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I try to measure radiative forcing in northwestern Argentina using a NIP and PSP.
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First, a PSP is extremely sensitive to thermal imbalance issues, so that its offset needs correction. See http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X08001813
Then, you need other sources of data, since you need to compare your measurements to what the surface radiation would be without aerosols. There is an abundance of publications on this topic. See e.g. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249312655_Aerosol_properties_and_radiative_forcing_over_Kanpur_during_severe_aerosol_loading_conditions
You also need a measurement of aerosol optical characteristics from satellite remote sensing or (better) by a ground-based sunphotometer.