Population Projection - Science topic

The subject of this article is to predict demographic changes in Iraq using neural networks (artificial intelligence) and provide evidence of a continuous and continuous decline in fertility and negative annual population growth in the future, and the emergence of important and emerging demographic issues. The research method in this study is the u...

According to the population projections, the city of Santa Ana has recorded 398,351 inhabitants in 2023, with a Per-Capita Production of 1.10 Kg. inhabitant/d. By the year 2040, it is estimated that there will be 454,734 inhabitants. with a PCP of 1.3 kg per person/d. Santa Ana´s solid waste management has a waste separation plant, which classifies...

Background Individual tree attributes such as volume, biomass and carbon mass are widely known to be highly correlated. As these attributes are typically predicted from statistical models, frameworks that provide compatible relationships among these attributes are usually preferred over approaches that provide independent predictions. However, the...

Anthropogenic mortality is a pervasive threat to global biodiversity. African lions (Panthera leo) are particularly vulnerable to these threats due to their wide-ranging behaviour and substantial energetic requirements, which typically conflict with human activities, often resulting in population declines and even extirpations. Mozambique supports...

A new endemic species of Geniostoma from Kaua‘i, Hawaiian Islands, is described and illustrated with notes on its distribution, ecology, conservation status, and relationships to other members of the genus. A modification to the existing key for Hawaiian Geniostoma is provided along with a key to all Kaua‘i species. Geniostoma imadaesp. nov., diffe...

We review the conservation status of two small rail species breeding in the Galápagos Islands: the endemic Galápagos Rail Laterallus spilonota and the native Paint-billed Crake Neocrex erythrops , widely distributed on the South American mainland. Using distance sampling with point counts, we estimated population sizes across islands with suitable...

Background During the COVID-19 pandemic, Santé publique France (SpF) published incidence (SpFi) rates based on census denominators. Denominators using cell phone connection (CPC) data can better reflect the population present and seasonal mobilities. Aim Given uncertainties regarding the actual number of Île-de-France (IdF) residents present in I...

The recent steep decline of the endangered North Atlantic right whale Eubalaena glacialis can be attributed to high mortality combined with low reproduction. While the former is a clear result of anthropogenic activity, the latter involves more complexity. Evidence suggests that both short-term fluctuations in prey availability and long-term declin...

Background: Tiratricol, initially marketed as Téatrois®, has been repurposed as an orphan drug for Allan-Herndon-Dudley syndrome, a rare genetic disorder affecting thyroid hormone transport. Despite public contributions in its repurposing, the current marketing authorization holder, Egetis Therapeutics, has projected a price of €63,500–€95,000 per...

With the increasing food demands of a global population projected to reach 9.6 billion by 2050, there is an urgent need to increase crop productivity. Bioengineering approaches to boost crop yields include enhancing photosynthetic capacity, though relatively few efforts focus on C4 crop species despite their significant presence in agriculture. Mul...

U.S. life expectancy at birth fell to its lowest point since 1996 during the pandemic. It rose in 2022 and 2023 but remained below the 2019 level. Abridged life tables were used to assess the results for 2024, based on CDC WONDER mortality data and Census Bureau population estimates. In 2024, life expectancy at birth increased to 79.13 years, and t...

Rising ocean temperatures pose significant threats to marine ectotherms. Sensitivity to temperature change varies across life stages, with embryos often being less tolerant to thermal perturbation than adults. Antarctic notothenioid fishes evolved to occupy a narrow, cold thermal regime (−2 to +2°C) as the high-latitude Southern Ocean (SO) cooled t...

Urbanization, climate change, and agricultural systems are intricately linked, posing significant challenges to global sustainability. With urban populations projected to reach 64% in developing and 86% in developed countries by 2050, the expansion of cities is transforming land use, impacting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and altering food produ...

Now days, the home environment is still much less supportive of life for the elderly, most elderly living at home need a companion to help them. Safety, health, happiness and independence will be difficult for them to get even the elderly will be further away from the surrounding environment. Based on population projection 2017 data there are 23.66...

The capacity of Amazonian environments to support large indigenous societies prior to European Contact has long been a contentious area of debate, particularly in regions where pre-Columbian cultures are known to have constructed large, spatially complex earthworks. Here, we provide the first range of supported population estimates for the Casarabe...

Background: When missing data are present in clinical outcomes studies, complete-case analysis (CCA) is often performed, whereby patients with missing data are excluded. While simple, CCA analysis may impart selection bias and reduce statistical power, leading to erroneous statistical results in some cases. However, there exist more rigorous statis...

Introduction Between 2020 and 2022, Pakistan’s population reached 235.7 million, with an average of 120.6 million men and 115.1 million women each year. Balochistan is in the southwest of Pakistan and is the fourth most populous region in the country, with an average annual population estimated at 13.9 m. There were 6.8 m (48.7%) children, 1.4 m (1...

Cerebrovascular disease (stroke) is one of the leading causes of mortality and disability worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study aims to estimate the incidence of stroke in Peru between 2015 and 2023 using national hospital discharge data provided by the National Health Superintendency. We conducted a mixed ecologic...

Osgood–Schlatter has, until recently, been suggested to be a benign condition, affecting adolescents in terms of knee pain and decreased sports participation during growth, with no long-term consequences seen later in adulthood. The objectives of this study were to describe the long-term knee health in adults with a history of Osgood–Schlatter, com...

1. Populations are at the mercy of random disturbances large and small and rarely, if ever, converge on predicted long-term behaviours. Therefore, when using matrix population models, ecologists study the dynamics of populations that depart from stable distributions. Necessary for such studies are indices that gauge transient dynamics, which are sh...

Effective governance requires timely and reliable small area population counts. Geospatial modelling approaches which utilise bespoke microcensus surveys and satellite-derived settlement maps and other spatial datasets have been developed to fill population data gaps in countries where censuses are outdated and incomplete. However, logistics and co...

Since 2020, the spread of a new Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAIV-H5N1) has triggered the most severe wildlife panzootic ever recorded, with suspected population crashes in hundreds of species. Yet, no study has evaluated the demographic mechanisms underlying these declines. We used Integrated Population Models and population forecasts...

Bird population estimation over broad spatial and temporal scales is a key objective in ornithology. To date, bird ecologists mainly relied on standard point counts where the number of detected individuals is interpreted as either the true abundance or proportionally related to it. However, providing accurate estimates of species abundance requires...

Background Population pharmacokinetics (PK) models could provide specific references for the formulation of personal drug delivery protocols, however, there is no population PK study of tranexamic acid (TXA) have been conducted in the Chinese population. The aim of this study was to establish a population PK model based on the data of perioperative...

We present the first documented case of jackdaws (Coloeus monedula) collecting and placing Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) scat in their nests in the Montes de Toledo, Spain. This behaviour may significantly compromise conservation efforts for species whose monitoring relies on non-invasive genetic sampling-such as the lynx-especially in areas with de...

Understanding the dynamics of ungulates is crucial for proper wildlife management and conservation efforts. Where high densities of ungulates are present and exceed the carrying capacity, damage occurs in both the forestry and agriculture sectors, moreover human safety is endangered through road accidents. This study explores the evolution of deer...

Ghana faces a demographic paradox: a rapidly ageing population, projected to reach nearly 10% by 2050, collides with systemic unpreparedness to address the intersecting vulnerabilities of ageing and disability. Through a narrative review of literature anchored in the lived experience of Alima, a 68-year-old grandmother with arthritis and post-strok...

Background Hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibious) is a semi-aquatic mammal that is considered the third largest living land mammal still alive on earth. The main objective of this study was to determine the distribution range and human-hippopotamus conflicts in the Lake Tana Biosphere Reserve, Ethiopia. Data were collected from June 2022 to January...

Aims Prednisone is a widely used glucocorticoid in the treatment of lupus, although its dosing is often determined empirically. Prednisolone, the active metabolite of prednisone, is found in its free form in the serum. The goal of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) to for...

The BEE‐STEWARD model simulates the population dynamics and behavior of bumblebees, including foraging, in remarkable detail, allowing the impact of various stressors on their populations to be assessed. To support the underlying detailed mechanistic descriptions, BEE‐STEWARD requires extensive parameterization, including corolla depth, which affec...

Background Understanding human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancer epidemiology in South Africa is crucial for informing cancer prevention in this high-burden country. We aimed to describe HPV-related cancer incidence in South Africa between 2011 and 2021. Methods For this cross-sectional study, we obtained data on cancer incidence from the South A...

Sustainable food production is essential for addressing global challenges such as climate change, food security, and environmental degradation. With the world population projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, ensuring a steady food supply without exhausting natural resources is a critical priority. Traditional agricultural practices contribute to...

Noninvasive genetic survey (NGS) methods are a common technique used for monitoring solitary species; however, researchers and managers may have trouble determining which survey method(s) are suitable for a specific study. Research evaluating various NGS methods provides valuable information beneficial to those making decisions about study design....

Aim To assess the relation between pre-frailty and frailty, and its components on one hand and the presence, degree and components of cognitive impairment. Methods This is a nationwide epidemiologic survey of health determinants in older Poles (PolSenior2). We assessed physical frailty using the approach by Fried et al. and cognitive impairment wi...

Background Recent reports highlight the importance of acute lower respiratory tract disease (aLRTD) for patients, but data describing incidence and burden in emergency departments (ED) are lacking. Methods A cohort study ascertaining cases prospectively at two EDs in Bristol, UK, enrolling adults (=18 years) presenting with aLRTD from 1 August 202...

A significant unanticipated issue for the study of transport systems is the occurrence of road traffic accidents, resulting in the number of cases, injuries, and fatalities. The Albanian transport system has suffered from negligence and a lack of investment. Consequently, road traffic accidents have increased while current efforts to improve road s...

This study aims to analyze and compare migration data with the population growth projections of Gorontalo Province for the 2020–2035 period. A descriptive quantitative approach was used to evaluate in- and out-migration patterns based on the 2020 Long Form Population Census and BPS population projections. The findings reveal regional migration disp...

This study develops a statistical model that integrates economic agglomeration theory and power-law distributions of city sizes to project future population distribution on 1-km grid cells. We focus on Japan -- a country at the forefront of rapid population decline. Drawing on official population projections and empirical patterns from past urban e...

Population size estimation has long been a key area of interest across various fields. The Schnabel census, a widely applied capture–recapture method, is commonly used for population estimation. However, the topic of sampling effort in Schnabel census studies remains insufficiently explored. This study aims to determine the required sampling effort...

The Luangwa giraffe (Giraffa tippelskirchi thornicrofti), a subspecies of the Masai giraffe endemic to the Luangwa Valley of northeastern Zambia, inhabits an increasingly human-modified landscape. Accurate and current population estimates are critical to evaluating their status and identifying effective conservation strategies. However, sparse moni...

Background/Objectives: The incidence of aortic stenosis (AS) is predicted to rise with the aging population, emerging as a growing public health challenge in developed countries, leading to an increased demand for intervention. Our aim is to predict the evolution of proposed cases for SAVR in the geographic referral area of our tertiary hospital un...

World Fertility 2024 presents the levels, trends and prospects of fertility between 1994 and 2054, both globally and for three groups of countries currently at different stages of the historic transition to lower fertility. The report analyses agespecific and total fertility rates, numbers of births and the mean age of childbearing using data from...

Yokomizo et al. (2024) recently introduced a novel statistic for matrix population models known as the interstage flow matrix. To calculate the interstage flow matrix, one multiplies the population projection matrix on the right by a diagonal matrix whose diagonal entries are the stable stage distribution. Because the sum of the interstage flow mat...

The Grévy's zebra, an endangered species native to Kenya and southern Ethiopia, has been the target of sustained conservation efforts in recent years. Accurately monitoring Grévy's zebra populations is essential for ecologists to evaluate ongoing conservation initiatives. Recently, in both 2016 and 2018, a full census of the Grévy's zebra populatio...

Even if amphibian extinction risks are high, their population dynamics are still poorly investigated. This is true for several Italian amphibian populations whose declines have been reported in a few studies focusing on a limited sample. This is the case of Rana italica, a species endemic to Italy whose ecology has been insufficiently explored so f...

Unlabelled: Population ageing is driving a growing demand for orthopedic surgical procedures. The rise in chronic conditions such as osteoarthritis significantly contributes to disability among older adults, particularly women, and primarily affects the hip and knee joints, thereby increasing the need for arthroplasties. Objective: To determine...

Long‐term ecological studies are critical for providing insight into population dynamics and detecting population declines, particularly for species of conservation concern. However, spatiotemporal variation and logistical challenges make the identification of sudden population declines difficult. We conducted an in‐water capture‐mark‐recapture stu...

The Seriwang Sangihe, also known as the Cerulean Flycatcher (Eutrichomyias rowleyi), once thought to have vanished forever from the wilds of North Sulawesi's Sahendaruman forest, has defied the odds. A groundbreaking population survey in 1998 revealed a flicker of hope, confirming the existence of this elusive bird with an estimated population of j...

Three recent statistical releases have led me to revisit the future of Japan's population. On December 20, 2006 the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (NIPSSR) published its latest long-range forecast of the country's population that showed, once again, a faster decline than previously anticipated: the medium variant proj...

Rationale Although there is broad agreement that caffeine provides an acute improvement in attention in the normal population, estimates of effect size vary and the relationship between dose and effect is unclear. Objective To examine the acute effect of caffeine on attention in a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods PsycINFO, PubMed, and...

Modern slavery laws are increasingly being adopted by countries, requiring companies to demonstrate human rights due diligence. Attempts at quantifying modern slavery across the world have played a crucial role in awareness raising, and locally rich data have been used to provide insights into supply chains for specific sectors and regions but is t...

This study looks at the environmental and socioeconomic aspects of possible landfill locations in Kirkuk City, Iraq, as well as their spatiotemporal appropriateness. This study used different types of data, including Landsat satellite imagery, soil texture, groundwater level, and slope. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was utilized for multi-cr...

Effective conservation of threatened species depends on accurate scientific assessment of their occurrence and population status. This information is often lacking or has poor scientific reliability for low-density carnivores, such as snow leopards (Panthera uncia) that inhabit remote and challenging habitats. We address prevalent sampling and stud...

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global health challenge, with approximately 25% of the global population estimated to have been infected with the causative pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). Current diagnostic methods based on Interferon-gamma (IFN) release assays (IGRA) have limitations in detecting infection and cannot distinguish those...

Extreme heat is a growing public health concern across South Asia, with urban populations particularly vulnerable due to high population density, infrastructure gaps, and compounding socioeconomic risks. In this study, we assess the potential health benefits of Heat–Health Warning Systems (HHWS) as a Climate Service for Health (CSH) in urban India...

Understanding the phylogenetic relationships among species is crucial or eective conservation, selection, and hybridization, which can enhance economic gains through improved growth characteristics. This study aimed to assess the reliability o mtDNA D-loop in delineating the phylogenetics o three tilapia species. Blood samples were collected ...

Context Population monitoring that effectively detects population changes is an important component of threatened species management. Call broadcast surveys are regularly used for robust monitoring of vocal or territorial species; however, they can be resource intensive. Passive monitoring approaches involving citizen scientists and acoustic record...

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been widely employed to track the spread of human pathogens; however, correlating wastewater data with clinical surveillance remains challenging due to population variability and environmental factors affecting wastewater composition. This study evaluated different SARS-CoV-2 normalization methods, comparing...

A person without ethics is a type of wild beast loosed upon this world, "Albert Camus". "Herping" is the act of searching for reptiles and amphibians, usually applied to scientific data collection in the field, and for any survey procedure, they directly seek out herpetofauna. Herping is often a hands-on activity, involving the subject's capture, s...

The blossom midge Contarinia maculipennis is a devastating pest of ornamental and vegetable crops, yet its population ecology remains poorly understood. This study employs an age-stage two-sex life table model to analyze its life history with additional focus on below-ground soil environment. Tuberose (Agave amica), a newly identified host, was sel...

The Mediterranean Cetacean Migration Corridor is one of the largest marine protected areas in the Mediterranean Sea. Nevertheless, little is known about the abundance and distribution of cetaceans and sea turtles in the area. A combination of aerial and boat surveys conducted in 2023 revealed the presence of seven cetaceans and two sea turtle speci...

Rice is the staple food for the majority of the global population, especially in Asia, where 90% of rice is cultivated and consumed. With the human population projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, the demand for increased rice production must be met using ever-decreasing resources. In India, rice is cultivated under diverse agroecological conditi...

Background Nonadherence to blood pressure (BP)‐lowering medication is a strong predictor of poor BP control. Sub‐Saharan Africa has extremely low BP control rates (~10%), but it is unclear what the burden of medication nonadherence among Africans with hypertension is. This systematic review estimated the prevalence and determinants of nonadherence...

Achieving the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy and net-zero outcomes will require a significant reduction in Scotland’s wild deer populations and continued efforts to maintain populations below threshold densities believed to have damaging environmental impacts. Central to this objective is the development of an agreed method to support the deer mana...

As urban centers account for over 70% of global CO₂ emissions and 78% of energy consumption, the imperative to transition toward sustainable smart cities has become critical. This article examines the transformative role of predictive analytics, artificial intelligence (AI), and advanced sensing technologies in addressing the challenges of resource...

Wildlife conservation has traditionally focused on the maintenance of population size, genetic diversity or habitat protection, with successes measured by stability or growth of population estimates, decrease in rates of population decline, and reduction of threats. However, the importance of preserving animal cultures and behavioral diversity is g...

The rise in population is a vital problem in Southeast Asian countries. It has an immediate and long-term impact on basic human needs such as housing, food, clothes, and medical care. Population forecasting can be crucial to deciding which socioeconomic and population development initiatives should be implemented in a country. The unpredictable inc...

This study aims to describe and analyze the classroom space requirements for elementary schools based on the projection of school-age population growth and to compare it with the School Minimum Service Standards (SPMP) and National Standards for Education (SNP). The research conducted is a descriptive qualitative study with projection calculations....

Plant based natural products could be used as new alternative of chemical insecticides due to their co-friendly, safety to non-target organisms, and low-level resistance properties. In this study, the contact toxicity and sublethal effects of Acroptilon repens L., Russian knap weed, extracts (aqueous and methanolic) were evaluated on the biological...

We consider what we and others have learned and the mistakes that we have made in the last 60 years of research on small mammal population dynamics. We consider all mammals <5 kg as small mammals, covering more than 3200 species including among others, mice, voles, lemmings, gerbils, guinea pigs, muskrats, shrews, squirrels, and hares, but not bats...

Background Malaria is a parasitic disease caused by protozoa of the genus Plasmodium, transmitted through the bites of Anopheles mosquitoes. Despite significant progress in malaria control, the disease remains a persistent public health challenge, particularly in specific Brazilian regions where environmental and socioeconomic factors contribute to...

Background The risk of herpes zoster (HZ) increases with age and in immunocompromised (IC) patients. Recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) is currently recommended in Canada for people aged ≥ 50 years. The objectives of the current study were to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and public health impact of RZV versus no HZ vaccination in select Canadian I...

Introduction: Cervical cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths among women in Uganda. The Uganda Ministry of Health (MoH) has adopted a number of strategies to address the burden of cervical cancer, including cervical cancer screening in public health facilities. However, the impact of these interventions on cervical cancer incidence i...

Background and objectives Paediatric tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health concern in high-burden settings like the Western Cape (WC), South Africa. We analysed geographic differences in TB burden among children and adolescents, described temporal trends, and quantified gaps in the TB care cascade. Methods We analysed TB episodes recorded...

A thorough survey of scorpions was conducted in the Indapur Tehsil area of Pune district of Maharashtra, India, to document the diversity of scorpion species in the area. Surveys were conducted across various habitats, including agricultural fields, rocky terrains, scrublands, and human settlements, for one year. The survey revealed the presence of...

A lack of population abundance and trajectory data is a conservation and management issue relevant to numerous pinniped species, many of which are exposed to a variety of threats. New Zealand fur seal (Arctocephalus forsteri; 'NZFS') populations in different parts of New Zealand have experienced both substantial increases and decreases to their abu...

The abundance of the Russian sturgeon population in the Sea of Azov declined many times in the XX–XXI centuries. This paper presents long-term annual and spatial occurrence datasets to create statistical and machine learning models to better understand the distribution patterns as well as biological and ecological features. The annual dataset provi...

Monitoring the local abundance of wild species is a priority for policy and management. The Living Planet Index (LPI) tracks global trends in the relative abundance of monitored wild vertebrates. However, barring a few exceptions, the LPI's uptake at the national level has been limited. Prominent critiques have not helped the perception that the LP...

The aim of the research to assess the pup production in the harp seal population in the White Sea in 2023 and 2024. Methods. An aerial survey of marine mammals to assess the abundance of pups and adults of the White Sea harp seal population using unmanned aerial vehicles/drones (UAVs) was conducted over the areas of drifting ice in the White Sea. A...

In Malaysia, the prevalence rate of diabetes mellitus (DM) in adults has increased from 13.4% to 18.3% in 2019. DM complication involved with two categories such nephropathy, neuropathy from microvascular and coronary artery disease of macrovascular. Youth population estimated to be more crucial in preventing DM. Therefore, in order to discover any...

Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, is experiencing rapid urbanization, with its population projected to exceed 400 million by 2050, making it the third most populous country globally. This demographic surge, coupled with an urban growth rate of 3.75% annually, has led to the proliferation of urban slums, particularly in cities like Lagos, Abuj...

It can be concluded that presently, we neglect the ancient sustainable socio environment development model existed in Sri Lanka and try to establish modalities procedures and guidelines taken from other counties without considering the ground truth of the country, which may be leading to loosing the technological knowhow adopted for many thousand y...

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in pediatric populations is an emerging area of interest due to its potential role in early viral transmission and long-term oncogenic risk. The oral cavity may serve as a reservoir for high-risk HPV types; however, its prevalence in children remains under-investigated and unclear. The HOPE (Human pa...

Melon (Cucumis melo L.) is an economically significant crop in Indonesia. Due to the increasing demand for premium melon fruit with high sugar content, firm flesh, extended shelf life, bright peel and flesh color, and round fruit shapes, researchers developed melon lines that align with consumer preferences. This study aimed to determine the segreg...