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Physics of Global Warming - Science topic

Physics of Global Warming is an examine the possible causes of global temperature changes
Questions related to Physics of Global Warming
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What kind of scientific research dominate in the field of Global warming?
Please, provide your suggestions for a question, problem or research thesis in the issues: Global warming.
Please reply.
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The cost and benefits of global warming will vary greatly from area to area. For moderate climate change, the balance can be difficult to assess. But the larger the change in climate, the more negative the consequences will become. Global warming will probably make life harder, not easier, for most people. This is mainly because we have already built enormous infrastructure based on the climate we now have.
Climate Q&A - Why is global warming a problem? (nasa.gov)
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In the context of the PFO-CFO Theory, we expect a possible powerful protuberance activity of the Sun in the near future. It is possible that it could influence significantly the radiation environment over the near-Earth space.
We consider the protuberance activity as a result of the electron-gas temporal accumulation in the layer between the solar core and radiation zone and the comparatively cold sunspots as the effect of the electron flows incapable of making their ways through the radiation zone. According to the Theory, the protuberances contain the radioactive solar substance from the core/radiative-zone boundary; therewith, this solar substance is initially rather cold, steadily warms in the protuberance jets, and, thus, increases the speed of its movement in the space. According to the Theory, no fusion reactions proceed in the Sun and the chemical elements form from the solar substance by the mechanism that is not described here.
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Answer for Mr. Hadi Jabbar Alagealy:
Wait and see! Tomorrow is another day.
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In addition to CO2, methane is also one of the main greenhouse gases, and in a few dozen years, when the eternal scarifier on the Siberian tundra and other places of the Arctic Circle methane can become an even more significant greenhouse gas.
Besides, the analyzes of cyclical activity of the Sun conducted by cosmologists show that in a few decades the activity of sunspots and more harmful to life and more intense energetically will reach the Earth's wavelengths of visible and invisible spectrum.
The increase in temperature will cause desertification of green areas, drying of biomass and an increase in the scale and amount of emerging fires and volcanic eruptions. these processes will intensify and accelerate the global warming process that is currently under way faster and faster.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:
Why according to the forecasts of climatologists, the global warming process in the next few decades can significantly accelerate?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
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According to a United Nations report published on August 9, 2021, acceleration of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide and methane, is being caused by humans: "Global climate change is accelerating and human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are the overwhelming cause, according to a landmark report released Monday by the United Nations. There is still time to avoid catastrophic warming this century, but only if countries around the world stop burning fossil fuels as quickly as possible, the authors warn."
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In my opinion, both unfavorable processes, ie the global warming and the depletion of the ozone layer in the atmosphere will increase in the future.
However, there is still some time to implement the necessary pro-ecological reforms to slow down these processes. It is estimated that there has been a decade of time to carry out the necessary pro-ecological investments, thanks to which it would be possible to implement sustainable pro-ecological development in the global economy.
Hedgehogs do not take these actions in the next decade, then these unfavorable climate processes will accelerate in the future and become permanently irreversible. Then, at the end of the twenty-first century, there will be a global climate cataclysm that will threaten the life of all humanity and a large part of other life forms that inhabit the planet Earth.
The problem is therefore serious and underestimated by politicians, entrepreneurs, industrialists and many other social groups. The problem of global warming and decreasing ozone layer in the atmosphere is too little publicized and the educated society is not educated enough.
In view of the above, the current question is: Are the biggest global problems of the future underestimated and ignored?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
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I believe that the greatest global problems and crises of the 21st century are not ignored, that humanity is either preparing for these problems or trying to solve them, reducing their scale and probability of occurrence.
Regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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The progressive global warming process in many ways adversely affects the ecosystems of the seas and oceans. In addition, the growing scale of pollution, waste, including plastic waste and many other toxic, non-biodegradable, contributes to adverse changes in many areas, sea zones and assessments, as well as biological depletion of biodiversity of ecosystems. The scale of this depletion is already beginning to be noticeable also for people in some areas of the sea, in which the number of fished fish is decreasing.
In addition, the rising temperature of the seas and oceans, which will be a derivative of the global warmning process, causes changes in ocean currents, which causes the appearance of new weather anomalies and climatic disasters also in land areas inhabited by people. Until recently, it was thought that seas and assessments, due to their high volume potential for land surfaces, would act as a kind of buffer factor for the global warming process. However, it turns out that the seas and oceans are unlikely to play the role of a buffer factor, they will only quickly undergo the global warmnig process and in this way may also become another factor strengthening the scale of increasingly occurring weather anomalies and climatic cataclysms.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:
Are the seas assessed as a global warming process buffer or are they subject to this process?
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The seas and oceans partially buffer the greenhouse effect. However, the increasing temperature and acidity of seawater and oceans is causing the extinction of coral reefs and many marine life. These are also very negative effects of the ongoing global warming process.
Greetings,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Key questions for humanity in the 21st century:
- Will the man manage to switch the classic energy to renewable energy sources to slow down the global warming process and prevent global climate catastrophe and the destruction of most life forms at the end of the 21st century, if so little will be done on the issue of the implementation of the necessary proecological reforms?
- In the 21st century, will man be able to convert most of the classic energy into renewable energy sources to achieve a fully sustainable ecological economy based on the concept of green economy?
- In the 21st century, will man be able to switch most of the classic energy based on the burning of minerals by turning this source of environmental pollution and a source of global warming to renewable energy sources to achieve a fully sustainable ecological economy based on the concept of green economy?
- In the 21st century, will a man in the development of civilization manage to achieve a fully sustainable ecological economy based on the concept of green economy before the global climate catastrophe?
The ever-faster greenhouse effect on Earth has already been recognized by many research centers as fact.
If the global warming process is not stopped by introducing environmentally-friendly economic policy reforms, the development of ecological and innovative technologies, primarily in the field of renewable energy, electromobility, waste segregation, recycling, etc. Earth at the end of the 21st century is threatened by global climate disaster related to global warming and rising frequency and scale of emerging weather anomalies and climatic cataclysms.
In view of the above, I am asking you the following question:
In the 21st century, will a man in the development of civilization manage to achieve a fully sustainable ecological economy based on the concept of green economy before the global climate catastrophe?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Best wishes
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There is no path to protecting the climate without dramatically changing how we produce and use electricity: nearly 40% of US CO2 pollution comes from power plants burning fossil fuels. Two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions come from energy-related sources. This makes the transition to sustainable energy the decisive factor in tackling climate change. The utilization of renewable energy systems significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to rising global temperatures and reduces local air pollution and water contamination.
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In my opinion, scientific research is the most important source of emerging innovations, new technological solutions and improvements in production processes that contribute to civilization development and technological progress, and also constitute an important source of added value of production processes in the economies of developed countries in knowledge-based economies. In the future, research should play a particularly important role in knowledge-based economies. For example, research should generate innovative ecological and new renewable energy solutions in the future to reduce adverse climate change resulting from a progressive global warming process.
In view of the above, I would like to ask you: Can research be considered as the most important factor generating technological value added in knowledge-based economies?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
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If the answer to the above questions is in the affirmative, then along with the growing importance of technology, information and knowledge in production processes and in the issue of problem solving, externalities of civilization development, etc., there should be a gradual increase in the importance of research aimed at creating new technological solutions and innovations. As a result, the importance of allocating funds for research and development, i.e. the issue of financing this research, may also increase.
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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What disciplines, areas of contemporary economic systems, industries, etc. will in the 21st century develop the model of sustainable pro-ecological economic development according to the concept of green economy?
In connection with the progressing global warming and the increase in the risk and frequency of climate disasters, it is necessary to implement pro-ecological reforms as soon as possible into economic processes. First of all, renewable energy sources should be developed, replacing the classic energy based on the burning of minerals. In addition, it is necessary to improve the technology of automation and robotization in the processes of waste segregation, recycling and re-use of various types of raw materials. Also, electromobility, ecological agriculture, zero-energy construction, etc. should be developed.
In recent years ecological innovations have been created mainly in the field of renewable energy sources, improvement of waste segregation techniques, recycling, treatment of polluted water, reclamation of a devastated natural environment, energy-efficient construction, electromobility etc. However, more and more eco-innovations, new technological solutions, technical improvements which is part of sustainable ecological development, is also created in many other fields of science.
In view of the above, are examples of pro-ecological undertakings, technological improvements compatible with sustainable ecological development or ecological innovations that are also created in one of the following or other related fields of science, for example: Molecular Biology, Biotechnology, Anthropology Theory, Medicine, Electrical Engineering , Artificial Intelligence, Genetics, Business Administration, Risk Management, Big Data, Business Intelligence, Automation & Robotics, Climatology, Agriculture, Biophysics, Biochemistry, Medical Intelligence, Artificial Neural Networks, Ecosystem Analysis, Power Engineering, Construction, Food production, Forest ecology, Biology, Geoscience, Government Programs, Behavioral Sciences, Biodiversity Assessment, Green Architecture, Greenhouse, Waste, Household Products, Information Society, Innovation Management, International Entrepreneurship, Internet Technologies, Knowledge Creation, Bioelectric Energy gy Sources, Business Model Innovation, Cataclysmic Variables, Chromatography, Clean Energy, Cleantech, Climate Prediction, Collaborative Innovation, Commercialization, Computational Intelligence, Computer Science and Engineering, Conservation Biology, Consumer Behavior, Corporate Governance, Creative Economy, Crisis Communication, Cyber Security, Data Analysis, Database Administration, Development Cooperation, Digital Ecosystems, Economic Ecoindicators, Ecosystem Ecology, Energy Industry, Ecological Modeling Ecological Economics, Ecological Indicators, Discovery, Earth Sciences, Earthquake Forecasting and Geocataclysm, Econometric Analysis, Economic Integration, Economics of Innovation, Ecosystem Engineering, Electricity, Electronic Systems, Energetic Materials, Energy Technologies, Environment, Environmental Biodegradation, Flora, Food Consumption Life Sciences, Logistics Management, Materials for Sustainable Energy, Astronomy & Astrophysics, Nanomaterials, New Media Technology, Recycling, Physics of Global Warming, Plant Protection, Predicive Analytics, Production Planning, Project Development, Public Economics, Public Policy, Public Policy, Sociobiology, Space Science, Sustainable Agriculture, Sustainable Development Strategies, Technology Forecasting, Transport Economics, Water Resources, Weather Forecasting, Wildlife Conservation, World Economy, ...?
In view of the above, the current question is: What areas of knowledge will be involved in shaping sustainable pro-ecological economic development in the 21st century?
Please, answer, comments.
I invite you to the discussion.
Best wishes
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In order for the pro-ecological transformation of the traditional brown economy to a sustainable green economy / circular economy to run smoothly, it is necessary to increase the scale of implementing the principles of sustainable development, develop social environmental (ecological) responsibility, carry out pro-environmental reforms, create and implement eco-innovations in economic processes, etc. in various sectors. and economic sectors. In addition, the process of achieving the sustainable development goals should be carried out in the formula of integrated, correlated pro-environmental processes of implementing green business ventures and investment projects implemented in various industries and sectors of the economy. It is necessary to develop pro-environmental state intervention, under which the state should inspire, co-finance, motivate and integrate the implementation of green economic ventures.
Regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Global warming affects many processes in biological ecosystems. Different species of flora and fauna change their habitats and geographical areas according to climate change and specific geographical environments. Areas of occurrence of specific species, for example insects in terrestrial areas and fish and arthropods in the seas and oceans, change. Bird habitats change, so migrations of some bird species may also be subject to modification. In the situation when forest areas dry out and turn into steppes and deserts, changes in natural habitats and areas of occurrence of species change and concern simultaneously many species of flora and fauna.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:
What changes in natural ecosystems are caused by the ongoing global warming process?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
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Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems.... Crabbe, M. J. C. (2008). Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: Modelling the effects of temperature. Computational Biology and Chemistry, 32(5), 311-314.
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I believe that it is necessary to apply appropriate waste management techniques due to the need to develop a new green economy, ie to implement the principles of sustainable development. It is necessary to minimize and limit the negative effects of climate change, generated by the progressive greenhouse effect of the Earth, which is rapidly accelerating global warming.
Improvement of waste management techniques should be implemented through the increase of automation, computerization and robotization in the field of planning and logistics of this process.
In view of the above, I would like to ask you: Is it necessary to improve the waste management technique?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion
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Yes, it is necessary to imorove waste management, especially solid waste. It needs to be recylcled to prevent environmental pollution.
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What kind of scientific research dominate in the field of Sustainable pro-ecological development of the global economy?
Probably the future of humanity depends on the next decade. If, over the next few years, renewable energy sources replacing traditional energy based on the burning of minerals are developed on a massive scale, it might be possible for humankind to avoid a climatic catastrophe in the 21st century. The international climate agreement that currently (December 2018) concluded in Katowice in Poland may be a late and insufficient agreement, because most countries do not intend to develop high-budget projects for the construction and development of power plants based on renewable energy sources. In addition, changes in the automotive industry, changes leading to the development of motorization in the direction of electromobility are too slow. The problem is serious because it concerns the future of all humanity in the perspective of the next two to three generations, yet the necessary changes and reforms in the implementation of economic principles of sustainable pro-ecological development are too slow. With the current pace of changes, there may be a shortage of time to implement the necessary pro-ecological undertakings, and then the problem of global warming will become an irreversible process and will constantly accelerate!
Please reply. I invite you to the discussion
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Pro-ecological economic development is a pretty mouthful term.Both economic development and environment in a given economy are important. The balance between them is difficult. Finding a suitable model with respect to different economies( which are at different stages of development) is the need of time.An interesting ideas can be: "Finding a Sustainable Model for a particular industry or sector in a particular country or region". The sector may be power,agriculture,mining, forestry...anything.If it addresses the real problem of that society, it will be a great contribution. The issue of pro-ecological development rests on two things: first, the balance between our need and greed; second, local people participation.
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I would greatly appreciate having feedback from scientists/groups specifically dedicated to the climatology of small oceanic islands worldwide (Including issues related with  as climate change, water, etc), having  information about their work, publications, etc.
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VACCIN -- is the short form of a project led by CSIR ---- just give a search and you will get it
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Currently (end of January, beginning of February 2019) in Australia the heat of the centuries has been recorded reaching in some places to almost 50 ° C, and in the USA, in some places now winter has appeared with frosts reaching around minus 50 degrees C.
In recent years, various weather anomalies have appeared more and more.
The recorded increase in weather anomalies and climatic cataclysms may be a derivative of the progressing greenhouse effect, ie the warming of the Earth's climate. This is also confirmed by the numerous climatic cataclysms and weather anomalies that also occurred in the last year of 2018 appear in numerous places on the Earth. In the autumn of 2018, fires of huge forest areas appeared in some areas of the Earth, such as in Scandinavia, California in the USA, Australia, the Iberian Peninsula, Africa, etc. In addition, weather anomalies, e.g. snow and floods in October and November 2018 occurred in the south of Europe. In addition, numerous tornadoes in 2018 in many places on Earth and so on.
Perhaps these problems will get worse. It is necessary to improve security systems and anti-crisis services, improve the prediction of these anomalies and climatic cataclysms so that people can, have managed to get shelter or cope with an imminent cataclysm. One of the technologies that can help in more precise forecasting of these cataclysms is the processing of large collections of historical and current information on this subject in the cloud computing technology in Big Data database systems.
In view of the above, in connection with the increasingly frequent cataclysms and climatic anomalies, perhaps in the future we will be forced to change our assessment of particular seasons, and for example favorite in some climatic zones, summer will no longer be universally recognized as a positive season, if at this time will often appear increasingly higher temperatures, droughts, fires, tornadoes, etc.
In connection with the above, I would like to ask you:
Are the current weather anomalies the effect of global warming?
Please reply
Best wishes
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There is a clear distinction between weather and climate. To define a climate, it is necessary thirty years or more of methodological observations of meteorological variables.
With respect to Climate, see the Figures of pages 14 and 15 in the link below, relative to the annual precipitation in Praia, Cape Verde, between the period 1886 to 2006.
According to World Meteorological Organization (2009): “Guidelines on
Analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation”, it is written in Page 37, https://www.ecad.eu/documents/WCDMP_72_TD_1500_en_1.pdf
“The detection of changes in extremes is difficult because they are rare, and thus the amount of information available for analysis is limited. Nevertheless, failure to detect changes in extremes at a given location does not mean that the frequency or intensity of extremes is not changing.
(…)
It is important to note that large uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge of climate change
remain, particularly concerning extremes on regional and local scales.”
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As we are all know that, increase of temperature on globe causes global warming and also know that the solubility of oxygen decreases as temperature increases in water. Like wise in open atmosphere how increase of temperature effects on level of atmospheric oxygen?. Because we can't take long breathe in high temperature place as in we can take long breathe in normal temperature place....   
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I would like to know for instance the likelihood of +4° in 2100.
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Dear Aryan,
That's an interesting question. Obviously, the IPCC assessment reports are an important source of information. The probability of a particular temperature increase will depend on the GCMs included in the assessment and whether you assign specific probabilities to the RPC scenarios. In principle, the RCP scenarios do not have a particular probability and hence it is hard to determine the likelihood of a particular temperature increase.
I assume you are interested in the likelihood of a global temperature increase? The likelihood of regional or even local temperature increases will be even more difficult to assess and may include uncertainties due to downscaling as well.
Regards,
Martijn
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In recent years, ecological innovations have also been created on the basis of other non-ecology science. Ecological innovations are mainly created, among others, in the field of renewable energy sources, improvement of waste segregation techniques, recycling, treatment of polluted water, reclamation of a devastated natural environment, energy-efficient construction, electromobility etc. However, more and more eco-innovations, new technological solutions, technical improvements that fit in sustainable pro-ecological economic development also arises in many other fields of science.
In view of the above, are examples of pro-ecological undertakings, technological improvements compatible with sustainable ecological development or ecological innovations that are also created in one of the following or other related fields of science, for example: Molecular Biology, Biotechnology, Anthropology Theory, Medicine, Electrical Engineering , Artificial Intelligence, Genetics, Business Administration, Risk Management, Big Data, Business Intelligence, Automation & Robotics, Climatology, Agriculture, Biophysics, Biochemistry, Medical Intelligence, Artificial Neural Networks, Ecosystem Analysis, Power Engineering, Construction, Food production, Forest ecology, Biology, Geoscience, Government Programs, Behavioral Sciences, Biodiversity Assessment, Green Architecture, Greenhouse, Waste, Household Products, Information Society, Innovation Management, International Entrepreneurship, Internet Technologies, Knowledge Creation, Bioelectric Energy gy Sources, Business Model Innovation, Cataclysmic Variables, Chromatography, Clean Energy, Cleantech, Climate Prediction, Collaborative Innovation, Commercialization, Computational Intelligence, Computer Science and Engineering, Conservation Biology, Consumer Behavior, Corporate Governance, Creative Economy, Crisis Communication, Cyber ​​Security, Data Analysis, Database Administration, Development Cooperation, Digital Ecosystems, Discovery, Earth Sciences, Earthquake Forecasting and Geocataclysm, Econometric Analysis, Economic Integration, Economics of Innovation, Ecosystem Engineering, Electricity, Electronic Systems, Energetic Materials, Energy Technologies, Environment, Environmental Biodegradation, Flora, Food Consumption Life Sciences, Logistics Management, Materials for Sustainable Energy, Astronomy & Astrophysics, Nanomaterials, New Media Technology, Recycling, Physics of Global Warming, Plant Protection, Predictive Analytics, Production Planning, Project Development, Public Eco nomics, Public Policy, Public Policy, Sociobiology, Space Science, Sustainable Agriculture, Sustainable Development Strategies, Technology Forecasting, Transport Economics, Water Resources, Weather Forecasting, Wildlife Conservation, World Economy, ...?
In view of the above, the current question is: Will ecological innovations be created in the 21st century on the basis of other sciences besides ecology?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
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Ecological inventions are need of the world to prevent destruction of the earth. Therefore we can hope more and more eco-friendly inventions will appear in 21st century.
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The common thinking is that the globe is warming. It is very obvious that the warming would affect both the continents and oceans. In fact there is evidence that ocean waters are getting warmer. In consequence, I wonder about the following chain of possibilities.
1. If the oceans get warmer, there should be more evaporation.
2. More evaporation should lead to more vapors in the atmosphere (and also clouds and rainfall).
3. More vapors and clouds should reflect back some of the suns radiation.
(Please note I am not pleading that global warming is a bless. It is already getting too late to control the damage of the existing  and regularly added, CO2 to the atmosphere).
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1. Clouds reflect some of the incoming sunlight back into space. So, it cools the Earth.
2. Clouds warm the Earth by absorbing infrared radiation emitted from the surface and re-radiating it back down. The process traps heat like a blanket and slows the rate at which the surface can cool. So, it warms the Earth’s surface.
3. But the amount of cooling effect produced due to reflecting back of the solar radiation into space is more than the amount of heating effect produced due to blanketing effect.
4. Thus, the net effect of clouds on the climate is to cool the surface.
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Since global warming is attributed to human activities since the 19th century and in particular to the emission of GHG wouldn't be interesting to also know the increase of energy produced since the 19th century (for which we centainly have a record) and wasted in various types of radiations (more difficult to quantify) and their impact onto climate change ?
Thank you in advance for sharing your experience and expertise.
Kind regards
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Hi Guy,
My apologies but I am not willing to get into yet another interminable debate with Ken on his pet theme of the impossibility of doing anything about global warming. This seems to happen on every question posted on ResearchGate that has even the remotest relevance to AGW.
You conclude with the two remarks:
"Are these hypotheses unreasonable?
Would it be possible to make an experiment worldwide without any geoengineering?"
To the first, I would say there is another anglophone scientist you may not have heard about called William of Ockham (1288 - 1347). He proposed the principle known as Occam's Razor which arrgues that the simplest solution is the best solution. So global warming caused by an increase in carbon dioxide needs no further causes.
To the second question, my reply is that we are already involved in a major geoengineering experiment, which is changing the Earth's climate. Isn't one enough? Won't another make things even worse?
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Dear Scientists tonight over the Russian Federation in the Ural Mountains flying object about the size of 100 bright stars, leaving behind a tail of 75 per cent of the sky somebody could tell what the object is?
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Any update after three years
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‘Bombshell’ climate-change study could totally dismantle the claim humans are causing global warming?
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The "study" isn't peer reviewed. One can guess why the authors choose to avoid having their references and conclusions verified by peers.
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Atmospheric phenomena:
* local displacement floating of Earth magnetic poles
* magnetic pole tilt and reverse orientation of magnetic field lines
Earth Meteorological and Climate Phenomena:
* Global Climate Change
Cosmic and Atmospheric phenomena:
* Solar activity (index) dynamics
* Solar wind and cosmic high energetiv particle radiation
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The question is if investigations have been done to a causal relationship among the above described phenomena mainly their long term dynamics.
Run short: Is long term climate (periodic) dynamics correlated to geological and cosmic (periodic) dynamics on long time scales?
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Strong earthquakes will definitely lead to increase or decrease polar drift speed which in necessary for climate change (increasing or decreasing temperature) and stabilization of our earth. Surely, the speed of Polar drift anomaly is the result of occurring strong earthquakes.
please let us dicuss this issue!
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According to the study reported in Nature
the large quakes coincide with the time of the maximum tidal strain.
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Observed records of Atlantic hurricane activity (e.g. Emanuel, 2007) show a strong correlation, on multi-year time-scales, between local tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the Power Dissipation Index (PDI). PDI is an aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity, combining frequency, intensity, and duration of hurricanes in a single index. Both Atlantic SSTs and PDI have risen sharply since the 1970s, and there is some evidence that PDI levels in recent years are higher than in the previous active Atlantic hurricane era in the 1950s and 60s. (Source: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes)
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I note here that there are important differences in the behavior of Atlantic Basin Hurricanes, (some day I will publish my ongoing timestep trajectory analysis of literallly 10,000 measurements) compared to Pacific Typhoons.  For Typhoons there does appear to be both an increase in frequency and definitely an increase in strength.
Our analysis of Atlantic Basin hurricanes, still ongoing, can offer this
1.  There does not seem to be an increase in frequency
2.  There does seem to be a shift in mean averaged location (or hurricane trajectory) farther to the South
3.  If one defines a spin up time as the time it takes to go from 1000 mb to 970 mb - the data suggest that hurricanes are evolving faster
4.  It does look, with significant error bars, that the fraction of hurricanes that develop to Cat 3+ is higher and this is consistent with Emanuel
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Is there any English copy of this research paper - (Extreme weather events under climate change- Lightning) available?
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Dear Stephan,
Thank you for your reply. I am a Masters Research student and studying under Prof Dr. Matschullat. My interest area includes Extreme climate events and modeling. This article seemed pretty enticing with the title of climate extremes associated with lightning. I only wishes to know more about it. It would be really kind of you if you could help. However, I have already got this idea that unfortunately its not available in English. Still I would gladly welcome any sort of help if you can do.
Best Regards
Monica
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We are getting sudden changes in weather such as unusual extremely high temperature in April for few days followed by thunder shower and temperature drops deference  more than 10 degree within two days again high temperature. Is it not a warning for us to think about it seriously. Your opinion is invited. 
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 First we have to know the difference between climate and weather that's what Kenneth want to say.
Regards
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Is Statospheric Aerosol Geo-engineering (SAG) just another diversionary tactic to bring about the ice age earlier than it is naturally bound to occur?
Which has the greatest potential for large scale societal disruption : a 2 deg c rise or a 2 deg c drop in global mean temperature?
If the radiative forcing of CO2 is as high as it is assumed, how will SAG affect or reduce the CO2-induced warming, given the half life of the CO2 molecule?
What are expected epidemiological dynamics over the coming years and decades that could result from large-scale SAG?
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It is serious enough that Gates donated money for it
You can at least start reading the scientific articles about this subject and then come with specific criticism
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I am actually thinking about different variables linked to each others. When I assume temperature will increase hence the convection so the winds can be slower than the present. But at the same time the height of planetary boundary layer might increase from its normal value, which can compensate the whole changes and brings the atmosphere in normal condition. By the way it is not so easy to think as it involves important role of time and space. Discussion on it is valuable.
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Dear Annu Panwar,
Winds and planetary layer dynamics are best investigated using complex climate models of the atmosphere and oceans. In such models, all variables are related each with other on the physical and mathematical most correct way. Before that should set the initial conditions of the model in accordance with the purpose of research. For example, see the link:https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273139935_Modelling_of_the_Aral_and_Caspian_seas_drying_out_influence_to_climate_and_environmental_changes
Regards,
Milivoj B. Gavrilov
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Hi all
In the press there has been coverage on companies' risk management plans for climate change, e.g. impact of rising sea levels on low lying airports, or more frequent storms meaning smaller turbo-props and regional jets that can't fly above the clouds (ie. insufficient altitude) impacting airport delays, groundings, etc.  How can we plan so we can best manage this risk (or opportunity?)
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It really sounds like you are aware of some of the hazards, impacts.  So just like we plan for other infrequencies as floods, wildfire (air pollution and sight distance impact), fog, high winds, etc. some of the climate change models should help predict a greater frequency, and then rely on the weather forecasting to help determine hazards of any specific period.  If we can predict likelihood of airport shutdown for conditions, why not consider greater use of social media to contact travelers so they can leave a day early or later, and adjust a few flights to accomodate the increased traffic demands, rather than having huge travelers waiting for flight changes within the airport.  Predictive tools for conditions continue to increase, so make the best uses.  Also, best to avoid locating airports in floodplain or tidal surge zone.  Since tsunamis may be very high, consider proximity and potential, nonetheless, with evacuation plans or construction save zones within the airport designed to handle severe conditions.  Most facilities have a design life in mind, so that should help set boundaries on sea level rise questions.
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It is known that the SR first frequency increases with the temperature. I wonder then if the SR data show an increase with global warming. That needs 1. data about the evolution of the yearly mean temperature 2; data about the yearly mean SR frequency since 2000 to now. 
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Thank you Zoltan for this useful information. I will study it carefully.
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The planet has suffered dramatic climatic changes in the Pleistocene, with several peaks of cold (glacial) and warm (inter-glacial) conditions. I ask what do you think about the role of the Central American isthmus appearance, breaking important ocean currents, and probably altering regional or global climate. For example, "El Niño" southern oscillation is a recent climatic phenomenon and is related to the emergence of the Central American isthmus? Thus, in general, what would be the role of this isthmus and the overall climate oscillation during the Pleistocene and Holocene? Thanks!
Nilton   
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Dear Nilton,
The closure of the Isthmus of Panama around 3.5 Ma had major implications on ocean circulation and global climate. In fact, it initiated the onset of the thermohaline circulation we have today (the ocean conveyor belt), as well as the glaciation on the northern hemisphere during the Pleistocene. El Niño conditions have been found to prevail also prior to the closure, in the early Pliocene.
You may want to see following publications for further information:
Haug GH, Tiedemann R. 1998. Effect of the formation of the Isthmus of Panama on
Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation. Nature 393: 673–676.
Haug GH et al. 2005. North Pacific seasonality and the glaciation of North America
2.7 million years ago. Nature 433: 821–825.
Fedorov AV et al. 2010. Tropical cyclones and permanent El Niño in the early Pliocene epoch. Nature 463: 1066-1070. DOI :10.1038/nature08831
Bacon CD et al. 2015. Biological evidence supports an early and complex emergence of the Isthmus of Panama. PNAS 112: 6110–6115, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1423853112
Best regards,
Thomas
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NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) are global indices that have huge impacts on the weather of this planet.
Although they occur over two different oceans, are they any study dealing with their possible interaction or synergy ?
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Hi, 
Also, these papers and the references therein will be good ones to have a read:
Scaife, A. A., et al. (2014), Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2514–2519, doi:10.1002/2014GL059637.
Domeisen, D., A. Butler, K. Fröhlich, M. Bittner, W. Müller, and J. Baehr, 2015: Seasonal Predictability over Europe Arising from El Niño and Stratospheric Variability in the MPI-ESM Seasonal Prediction System. J. Climate, 28, 256–271, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00207.1.
As ENSO-NAO interaction is a popular topic, you'll find a number of interesting papers - good luck! 
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While searching for cosmic dust and debris from nuclear bomb tests, Christian Junge discovered in 1960 a layer of microscopic aerosol particles between the tropopause and about 18 miles (30 km) altitude. These particles are composed of sulfuric acid and water and are formed by the chemical transformation of sulfur-containing gases . This layer is called the Junge Layer or the Stratospheric Aerosol Layer (http://www.albany.edu/faculty/rgk/atm101/junge.htm). According to Solomon et al. (2011; Science) recent measurements demonstrate that the "background” stratospheric aerosol layer is persistently variable rather than constant, even in the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Several independent data sets show that stratospheric aerosols have increased in abundance since 2000. Near-global satellite aerosol data imply a negative radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosol changes over this period of about –0.1 watt per square meter, reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred. Observations from earlier periods are limited but suggest an additional negative radiative forcing of about –0.1 watt per square meter from 1960 to 1990. Climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the radiative forcing and global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase.
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Indeed,  the Kremser et al paper is highly recommended, more insights into dynamical mechanisms you'll find in my 2015 ACP paper:
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Working with other Mesozoic scientists such as Olsen, Kent, Whiteside, McDonald, and others on the mass extinction event at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary in North America, there has been much interest in finding the smoking gun cause for that event.  I have heard various proposals concerning the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province, change in the amount of and isotopic character of atmospheric carbon, and changing paleogeography as tectonic plates pulled apart.  There were immediate changes in biodiversity and ecology, and longer-term changes due to evolution and "recovery."  Can we compare the proposed super-greenhouse that may have occurred due to volcanic outgassing to what we may face today, whether our global warming is man-made or a natural cycle during an Interglacial, as occurred during the previous Eemian Interglacial when mankind was probably not involved, or a combination of causes?
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Dear Colleagues!
It is evident that knowing about the past helps to understand the future. However, time scales need to be considered and mechanisms, too. The current anthropogenic changes of climate, land use, biodiversity are substantial and of course they will stimulate evolution and they also will be compensated somewhen. The time needed to recover biodiversity in numbers may last more than 100 ky, which is beyond our human sphere of interest and influence. Also the speed of the ongoing changes is not unique. There have been much more rapid global changes of climate and biodiversity in earth history. And finally, also the intensity of the changes, their magnitude, is not unprecedented.
So the fossil evidence may be even abused for arguments like there will be a natural compensation of all this, which is correct. Nevertheless, it does not help to solve problems that we are facing during the current phase of transition and change.
Taking the fossil record and the Knowledge of earth historic climatic changes, nevertheless does not give us the temporal resolution that we would need for improved understanding of currently ongoing processes of decades. This is why there is a limited sense of comparing past and current developments if we are interested in what is going on in the near future. For environmental policy, be it adaptation or mitigation, and for judging the effects of changes for present Environment and ecosystem services it is irrelevant to know that things will be equilibrated again in a few thousand years, or even later.
Carl Beierkuhnlein
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I have estimated monthly BC radiative forcing at a particular location. Now I wanted to estimate the global warming potential using the radiative forcing values. Can anyone explain what the global warming potential refers to and how can I compute the same? 
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@Michel
Hope not to be pedantic but the Aerosol Indirect Effects are even of shorter duration because of the short lifetime of clouds
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 In our control experiment, warming (infrared heater) had no effect on aboveground biomass but significantly increased root biomass, which bring us about an idea that global warmig might change shoot-root allocation. Global NPP has been documented. If we can correctly and precisely calculated AGB, (the difference between NPP and AGB should be the root biomass), we can research how the shoot-root respond to climate change in a global change.
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Earth was  definitely not heated to this state from a cold condition. It was cooled from a very high temperature and also very slow rate to this state.The question is what are the possible causes for this cooling?
A Geo-Scientist can answer this question
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Dear Radhashyam,
This is what you said above ". . . gaseous envelope of hot earth at 6000K, as it is thought that earth had taken its birth from a bulk of hot gaseous clouds ejected from sun or solar nebula. " This statement at best is simply not true and at worst is nonsense. I don't know where you obtained your notion of the formation of the earth with which you seem determined to belive although it is wholly contrary to known science and evidence. You posed a question and have received many answers but the only ones you accept are those that agree with your erroneous preconceived view. My question to you is why did you ask the question if you already had the only answer that you would accept?
What may be causes of cooling of the planet earth to this temperature, say 15 degree celcius? - ResearchGate. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/post/What_may_be_causes_of_cooling_of_the_planet_earth_to_this_temperature_say_15_degree_celcius#view=579042a23d7f4bc0ed6eb084 [accessed Jul 21, 2016].
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Hello all dears
As far as i know we should wait a very cold winter with floods this year in the Iran. But, i want to now is it the direct effect of El Niño or not. could anyone help me with this question?
Best regards
Rayhane Mirzahossein
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Kenneth, Always glad to read your answers.  And Rayhane, if you can get a grant from your government, the most important research that could help the rainfall of your country, would be to trace back the rainfall nuclei to their origins, what species of trees are the Pseudomonas-hosts?  
Then if the Pseudomonas host trees are protected and replanted, your country could have a more regular rainfall each year.
And the second area of very important research is to reproduce in quantity the local native perennial grass seeds, and get all of your country's barren areas covered with vegetation, to eliminate the Dust Cloud.  That is what the USA had to do in the 1930s when we had dust clouds in our Midwest "Dust Bowl" region, is invest in the seeds to recover the barren soil, to keep it from becoming airborne.
There are a few researchers looking into the Pseudomonas in India for example, but not tracing back the host trees yet, and nobody except myself looking into the Dust Cloud issue so far worldwide. 
It would be nice to have other researchers looking into these two issues that are going to impact on so many billions of people?
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I'm working on modelling the propagation and dissipation of waves in both the marginal ice zone and also in the ice pack. My understanding is that in the ice pack we may get both scattering (from changes in ice thickness as described in papers by Squire for example) and dissipation which may occur due to the viscosity in the water (this I know how to deal with) and also the creep effect in the ice. I've found the 1973 paper by Wadhams about this but I imagine that there may be more recent updates on the ice properties ... and that these properties may be different for steady or oscillating loads. I just started to read a few papers by Timco, but I am a bit lost.
So, basically I was going to use Wadhams' theory, with some updates on the mechanical properties of sea ice. Any advice is welcome.
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Thanks to all. I finally found an answer in Cole et al. (JGR 1998): "Cyclic loading and creep response of aligned first-year sea ice" which is generally consistent with Wadhams (JGR 1973), in proposing a reduced B coefficient for creep. This is now in version 5.10 of WAVEWATCH III (to be released in a few months) ... and was used for this paper:
But yes it is in general a function of ice temperature and thickness and floe sizes are very important parameters too. 
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This is a question that’s been asked for decades. There is always some danger in picking who first asked it, but glaciologist John Mercer in 1968 is a strong candidate. Mass changes in the ice sheet translate into changes in sea level, and a lot of people live close enough to sea level to be displaced if the ice sheet were to be lost, while many more enjoy the beaches and ports that would be affected.
Many things affect sea level. For example, more snow on an ice sheet — as we expect on the Antarctic ice sheet and central parts of Greenland in a warming world — tends to lower sea level by taking water that evaporated from the ocean and storing it on top of an ice sheet. But more melt on an ice sheet — as we expect in parts of Greenland with warming — takes water from the ice sheet and puts it back in the ocean, raising sea level. Melting of mountain glaciers has a similar effect as melting the ice sheet, as does pumping of water out of the ground to irrigate crops or for other uses, because most of that water ends up in the ocean rather than back in the ground. Warming the ocean causes expansion of the water and raises sea level. All of these are interesting and important influences, with notable uncertainties, but we don’t think that those uncertainties are huge.
Another way to raise sea level is for ice sheets to spread more rapidly under their own weight, taking ice from above sea level and delivering it to the ocean to make icebergs. This influence on sea level is complicated, and is where various uncertainties arise. Many factors control how rapidly ice flows, and thus how rapidly ice sheets can transfer land ice to the ocean to raise sea level.
Today, around most of Antarctica and parts of Greenland, the ice reaching the ocean does not immediately break off to make icebergs; instead it remains attached while spreading over the ocean, forming an ice shelf. The ice shelves almost all exist in bays or fjords, and thus have friction with their sides; the undersides of many ice shelves also hit local high spots in the seafloor, generating additional friction. Furthermore, the undersides of the ice shelves, where they are in contact with the ocean, are at their melting point. Warming ocean water tends to thin the shelves — a warming of 1 degree Celsius increases melting by about 10 meters per year — reducing the friction, and thus allowing faster flow of the ice that feeds the shelves, raising sea level.
Various features of the geologic record, modern observations, and investigations with models point to the importance of “threshold” behavior. Increasing the ocean temperature increases the ice’s speed, with the potential that at some high-enough temperature, the speed will jump rather abruptly and irreversibly. Such behavior is especially interesting and important, but also difficult to predict. You can undoubtedly think of many questions: What happens if the water temperature stays the same, but the rate of ocean circulation changes? What about warming adding meltwater into crevasses that could wedge them open and remove the friction that way? If an ice shelf is thinned, by how much does the flow speed increase? What are the thresholds?
A large and vigorous community of scientists in the field, remote-sensing experts, and modelers is working to measure, understand, project, and test the projections. And, we’re doing so with some urgency — we want to get answers in time to provide useful guidance to people making decisions about energy and the environment. 
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There are four lessons here from a course in climate change being run by the University of Exeter which address the future of the cryosphere:
There is also this BBC TV program which ends by discussing the Antarctic cryosphere. It is hosted by David Attenborough, and features a mother polar bear and her cubs (in the Arctic).
https://www.futurelearn.chttp://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00zj39jom/courses/climate-change-challenges-and-solutions/3/steps/60201
I believe that program was not shown in the USA because suggests climate change is not only real but also a major threat to mankind.
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Which are free programs can calculate the air pollution from a separate stationary source emission into the atmospher? Model Gause, TAPM? Where can I see examples of calculation (with all input and output data). We developed our own model - we would like to compare the results.
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SIRANE is an atmospheric dispersion model for urban air quality.
SIRANE was developed over 15 years by the group AIR - Atmosphere, Impact & Risk of the Laboratoire de Mécanique des Fluides et d'Acoustique of the Ecole Centrale de Lyon.
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I'm searching for papers dealing with experimental comparison of forth generation refrigerants such as R1233zde, R1234ze or R1336mzz-Z with state-of-the-art fluids like R245fa and R134a as a working fluids for ORC. I've found lots of simulative studies but only few experimental analyses. 
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Dear Sebastian,
I don't know what is the application, so I am sharing all papers and presentations with experimental results to my knowledge...Please check the following publications:
with R245fa (GWP=950 )->
with R134 (GWP=1300)->
with R123 (GWP=76)->
with HFE71000 (GWP=320) ->
Regards
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I have an interesting question.  If we remove the Northern Hemisphere Ice-sheet Or the Antarctic Ice-sheet expansion, will the ITCZ shift to north? Are there some related articels ? Thank you very much!
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The general thinking is that the ITCZ / Hadley circulation shifts toward the warmer hemisphere; this is in line with the seasonal variation as noted in Vadym's answer. A number of recent studies have shown evidence that extratropical heating anomalies have an impact on the tropical precipitation, particularly by affecting the position of the ITCZ. Examples:
Hwang, Y.-T., Frierson, D. M. W. and S. M. Kang. Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol and the southward shift of tropical precipitation in the 20th century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1-6, doi: 10.1002/grl50502, 2013.
Ceppi, P., Hwang, Y.-T., Liu, X., Frierson, D. M. W. and D. L. Hartmann. The relationship between the ITCZ and the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmospheres, 118, 5136-5146, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50461, 2013.
What becomes apparent as you dive into this topic is that it isn't really the details of the energy source that matter. That is to say, it isn't the ice that matters in your example, or the sulfate aerosol in Hwang et al. Instead is the impact on the global energy cycle. 
Realizing that it is the global energy cycle that matters in these issues then brings the whole thing back to trying to understand fundamental aspects of the circulation. On this topic, there are a few recent studies that have noted that the impact on tropical precipitation of these high-latitude effects may depend on the representation of the ocean. In particular, a number of studies that show these tropical effects from extratropical forcing use only a thermodynamic ocean. Sometimes introducing a fully dynamic ocean model allows the oceanic response to adjust cooperatively with the atmosphere, and the tropical impact is substantially reduced. Two examples that show this pretty explicitly are:
Tomas, R. A, C. Deser and L. Sun, 2015: The role of ocean heat transport in the global climate response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. J. Climate, submitted. [preprint from Clara's web page: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/cdeser/docs/submitted.tomas.ocean_heat_transport_arctic.sep15.pdf]
Kay, J. E., Yettella, V., Medeiros, B. Hannay, C., and P. Caldwell (revised), Global climate impacts of fixing the Southern Ocean shortwave radiation bias in the Community Earth System Model, J. Climate, [preprint from Jen's web page: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/jenkay/papers/Kay_JClim_SouthernOceanASR_revised_November2,2015.pdf]
Hope that is helpful.
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I have a question. If we can adjust the distance between earth and sun, we can control the climate change, right?
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Jasper,
You are correct.
A modest change in the mean orbital radius would suffice to cause a general cooling (or further warming) of the Earth.
The year would alter accordingly, but the energies required to make such a change are (10^30 joules for a 1% change) are substantial.
Actually, I might be off by an order of magnitude or two, and you have to ask yourself how to apply a million YJ safely.
(yes, yotta-joules)
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Can i use rainfall ONLY to determine the impacts of climate change on streamflow? I have only rainfall variable downscaled from 3 GCMs (ECHAM5, MRI, CCSM3) using MM5 regional climate model with 3 scenarios. The other climate variables are not available. Can I still determine future streamflow without the other variables especially Tmin and Tmax? Will the paper be allowed by journal reviewers?
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You can get some info from here about rainfall elasticity in Australia.
There should be similar results for other places - my guess is your interest is in the tropics ...
But you really should try to get some evaporation proxy. See here for methods to get a low input estimate of streamflow change
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For my study I have six different DEMs of a glacier. The DEMs are all from different years and I want to calculate the volume changes over a timeperiod. Including the six DEMs I have one subglacial DEM with low resolution (100 meter). In ArcMap, I use raster calculator to subtract the DEMs from the subglacial DEMs to get the volume results. The problem is that the DEMs with high resolution gets converted to 100 meter resolution. Is there any way to derive results with better resolution? 
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Another thought I have.
Do you roughly know the thickness of the ice sheet? And how rough is the subglacial DEM and the surface of the ice?
Maybe it would be useful to take the 3D surface into account. There are tools available in ArcMap (or extensions) to calculate first the surface of each cell based on the topography. During the volume calculation you multiply then the surface of the cell by the thickness of the ice instead of using 100x100m. 
This approach could be more accurate depending of the terrain roughness and the relation between thickness and cell size.
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I am working on a project to use WRF-ARW as a regional climate model and  project potential impact of climate change for future periods. But the WRF model doesn't directly ingest the Climate Model out put dat (GCM) from CMIP5   available in ESGF portal directly. So I need some mechanism so as to make this GCM outputs  able to use in WPS the WRF prepossessing system before I run WRF
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Our group at NCAR does a significant amount of Regional Climate Downscaling with WRF. Here are two articles that might help:
Done J.M., G.J. Holland, C.L. Bruyère, L.R. Leung, and A. Suzuki-Parker, 2013: Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons from a Tropical Cyclone Perspective, Climatic Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0954-6
Bruyère C.L., J.M. Done, G.J. Holland, and S. Fredrick, 2014: Bias Corrections of Global Models for Regional Climate Simulations of High-Impact Weather. Climate Dynamics, 43, 1847-1856. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-2011-6
We have also just completed a project to convert the CESM AR5 data to WRF Intermediate file format. We have also bias corrected this data. All the data are available here:
The source code used will be make public soon, on the above web site. We are also in the process of generating a technical document describing the methods and code. The document will also be on the above web site when completed.
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Dear All,
    I have run the WRF Model yearly (2010,2011, and 2012)  and few years as a single run (2010-2012) using GFS data. After running real_nmm.exe, 
I observed Boundary conditions and Initial conditions for Individual years 2010, 2011 and 2012 with combined year run 2010-2012.
2010: Both Initial and Boundary conditions are Same.
2011: Boundary Conditions are same but Initial conditions different
2012: Boundary Conditions are same but Initial conditions different
Now I compared the Time series of Individual years 2010, 2011 and 2012 with combined year run 2010-2012.
2010: The Wind speed values is same throughout the period.
2011: Wind speed Values are almost correlated well for every month except from Mid of April to August.
2012:Wind speed Values are almost correlated well for every month except from Mid of April to August.
I Observed there is only difference in initial conditions (rest of all are same, Input data, Boundary conditions, Parameterization schemes, same location, resolution etc). So i expected all the months of 2011 and 2012 should be differ from 2010-2012 single run. But it showed difference for few months as mentioned above. I done the similar analysis for another location, The results are same as earlier.
I am unable to understand how to explain this behaviour. I attached all the results in excel file which is in zip file. 
Waiting for your Valuable Ideas, 
Thanks & Regards,
Malleswararao M.
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From Internet i came to know that the Thailand monsoonal season starts from May/June to October.
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I know there are no any rules. But I just want to know the community idea about how many will suffice for a study.
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One answer is that you cannot be sure. But as a rule of thump we tend to use at least 3 GCMs to make a meaningful assumption.
Regards, Levent
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2014 became the warmest year on record, without a strong El Niño. The so-called global warming hiatus (1998-2012) are widely concerned. In the following decade, global mean temperature warming will continue to slow down, or will rise much more rapidly than in the "slowdown" period? What are main physical causes responsible for inter-decadal changes of mean temperature?
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During the period of the so-called hiatus, satellite measurements, summarized in several studies, indicate that there has been more radiant energy entering the atmosphere at the top of the atmosphere, than leaving, and that this is occurring at an accelerating rate. This indicates that heat has been added to the earth's climate system during the entire so-called hiatus. However, due to wind and ocean circulation changes, more radiant energy has been transferred from atmosphere to oceans than in past decades. Despite the appearance of a hiatus, sea levels have continued their accelerating rise, fueled largely by thermal expansion. 
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As we all hear recently that CO2 concentration into the atmosphere has increase (as far as I remember) 390 ppm. Keep in mind that the report mentioned that the critical concentration of CO2 must not exceed (as far as I remember) 350 ppm. The question is: how much will this deference (i.e. 350 to 390 ppm) affect the global temperature?
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Mohamad
The little ice age is not a warming period?!
The drop in the mid-20th century could be an anthropogenic aerosol effect
And now you bring in an author with 2 identical publications that have been shown to be incorrect by climate specialists
Comment on “Thermal pollution causes global warming”, by B. Nordell [Global Planet. Change 38 (2003), 305–312]
Curt Covey, Ken Caldeira, Martin Hoffert, Michael MacCrackena, Stephen H. Schneider, Tom Wigley
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I enjoyed reading this article and I strongly appreciate the authors for highlighting the robustness of cloud vertical distribution (obtained from space-borne Lidar) as a signature of climate change in comparison with the traditionally used columnar cloud fraction (obtained from passive satellites) and cloud radiative effect. In the  climate warming scenario (+ 4K), model results show an upward shift in the distribution of clouds in all the regions with largest shift observed over the tropics (+1.7 km). Interestingly, the trend-analysis based on 16 years of ground-based LIDAR data available at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) in our recent article also shows an upward shift of 0.56 km (0.41 km) in the top (base) altitude of cirrus clouds at 96% (80%) confidence level. In addition to this, we also observed an 8.4% increase in the percentage occurrence of cirrus clouds at 16 km altitude but found statistically insignificant ( please see Figure 8 in the link shared below). In this context, I am curious to know the rate of this upward shift in the cloud vertical distribution projected by the climate models. Thank you!
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There are physical arguments that, to first order, the tropopause will rise so as to approximately keep its temperature constant. This relies on the cooling from water vapor emission dropping off rapidly around 200 K. 
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The trend of the anomaly of global land surface temperature (GLST) had been numerically simulated perfectly by me with a group of simple periodic mathematics functions, which is obtained  with a numerical-functional-analysis-modelling technique in a computer. The result means the modern climate change may be not dominated by human influences due to  the function which perfectly fits the actuate anomaly of GLST from 1880 to 2013, is periodic rather than an irreversible function.
  Do you agree my view?
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Curve-fitting and statistical modelling are a useful tool, but science moves forward by the understanding of processes: scientists try to understand "how things work".
Let me draw up an analogy. Imagine that intelligent insects arrive in a field in spring, and observe that flowers are growing at an accelerating pace. During three months (twenty generations of insects) they measure the growth of flowers per meter square and the curve looks like an exponential. Some insects believe that the growth will continue, others find that a group of simple periodic mathematical functions fits the observations better and predict a reversal of the growing trend.
The only way to decide the right solution is to understand the process: why do flowers grow? Because it is warmer, sunnier and still moist in spring. Knowing what flowers need for growth, and knowing the earth movement around the sun and the seasons, scientists can predict that the growth will stop in summer when the field gets dry.
The same is true for the earth warming. To understand climate, there is the need to bring together physicists, chemists, biologists, geologists, etc to understand the underlying processes. Scientists examine the whole realm of climate science together in the IPCC (reports available freely on the web). The reason why we know that the warming trend cannot be reversed quickly and that the warming trend is related to anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, is because we understand the physics/chemistry of the radiative balance of the earth and we understand - albeit imperfectly- major aspects of the carbon cycle. It is not because scientists have found that an exponential curve fits better the observations of global temperature than a group of simple periodic mathematical functions.
If you are curious, I suggest you download and read the IPCC reports. They are really great and full of wonderful science.
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The sun is delivering a large amount of heat.
Buildings with large windows are able to collect this. Normally architects avoid overheating of building rooms by the sun. Otherwise there is the chance to use this heat and cool the rooms by air/water heat pumps. The stored heat can be used for warm water supply or to heat the rooms at the evening/night when outside temperatures go down.
For calculating the heat amount of the sun I need information about the volume of the sun input in dependence of the windows areas / building construction / region / seasons /....
Can anybody help?
With best regards
Michael
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Dear all;
these are good and almost complete data on the the question topic. In addition, the following missing books seems to cover precisely the use of solar panels on buildings. Regards
Building Science: Concepts and Application By Jens Pohl; 2011, (280 Pages); ISBN: 0470655739
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A new study predicts that the earth magnetic filed could be flipped within less than 100 years.
I refer the following link:
What are the effects on earth and on the organisms that such an event could bear with it?
What are the worst expectations that may affect our life?
Do you think this event can happen sooner than 100 years?
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An effect is the wrong orientation for birds and other animals that use the magnetic field in their travels.
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I'm aware of the discussion of e.g. Van Oost et al. and Lal et al., however I would be interested in direct field measurements/experiments showing the main environmental drivers for the one, or other development.
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It depends on the specific landform position from where erosion is happening (i.e. soil and C stock, erodibility of the soil), the amount of free and occluded carbon (i.e. aggregate protected C) or buried carbon you had in the given soil profile, and intensity of the erosion process. Some studies have shown that up to 20% of C in eroded soil/sediment (i.e. C in sediments mobilized from eroding slope positions) can be lost due to oxidative decomposition during the erosional transport or soon after deposition in downslope depositional landform positions. 
check out the papers below for more info;
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Specifically how reliable is the science? It seems to me the empirical evidence is nowhere near what is required for cause & effect making this a statistical study of trends and potential causes.
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Please take a look at the attached link to a file uploaded at scribd.com where I have presented both a linear (Figure 10) and a nonlinear (Figure 15) analysis of the NASA global average temperature data. The physics is so much easier to understand with the linear model. Nonetheless, I think the intellectual resistance to accepting such a linear model is higher than for a nonlinear model. As shown here, both analyses lead to the same conclusions regarding the current global average temperature trends - the earth is actually cooler than it would have been had the late 19th century, or the mid-20th century trends continued. Your comments will be greatly appreciated. I am planning to present the nonlinear analysis to peer-reviewed publication.
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Usually when the hiatus (in global warming) is raised as an issue by skeptics they cherry pick 1998 as the start, since that was the year when a strong El Nino happened raising global temperature to a new record. Your choice of 2001 as the start of your period may result in you being accused of cherry picking too.
Only having read your abstract, it is not clear why you have selected a time period of 14 years. A better choice would be 11 years which forms a solar cycle, or even 5 years which is approximately equal to the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) cycle. When the five year running mean is plotted is is only over the last five years that the hiatus is seen.
Hope this helps,
Cheers, Alastair.
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There are many approaches to do time series analyses, for example MTM. But the results are different. So I hope to know if there is a most effective or how to identify which method is effective.
Someone has told me that Zhaohua Wu achieved a very effective method in this problem. He is from Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), Florida State University. Unfortunately, I didn't find the paper.
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What method is "most effective" depends on your ultimate objective and your priorities, and on the quality and quantity of your data. I would first consider smoothing with a running window that will remove seasonal variability and periods under 1 year. A box-car filter (equal weights to 12 consecutive months) would be the simplest, but it has end effects that are easily improved by tapering, such as would be provided by a cosine window or a Hanning window.
If a smoothing window is not adequate for your purposes, you'll have to specify why not in order to determine what would constitute an improvement.
If you intend to look at coherence or transfer functions, the smoothing is not even necessary. You can just ignore the information a frequencies about 1 cycle / year.
Good luck!
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I want to know about the quality of reanalysis data.
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There are many reanalysis systems from ECMWF (ERA-40 and ERA-interim), of NASA (MERRA), of JMA (JRA-25), of NCEP, and NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). Over long periods of time, the density of observation changes and the data assimilation systems improve which brings centres to redo reanalysis when significant changes have been brought to their DA systems used for numerical weather prediction. You will find lots of references on the website of the 4th WCRP International Conference on Reanalyses (ICR4) at http://icr4.org/about.html.
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It is an acrimonious debate whether there is global warming or not. In recent times several instances have been cited in favour of global warming, including the raising of sea water, the melting of glaciers in both the North and South poles, as well as in the Himalayas. There is no doubt that there is an upsurge of CO2 in the atmosphere, besides other causal gases. Can the escalation of green cover come to our green planet's rescue? Or are there any other biological or chemical tools that can solve this burning problem?
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Glaciers have been melting for centuries so they are an indicator of natural warming.
Recent temperature data show a leveling off or even slight decrease in global temps.
Solar and wind will not provide enough power in many locations around the globe.
The best solution may be eliminating politicians from bloviating so much. The sure method is to blow up our sun. Then we will have about 8 minutes before everyone turning into popsicles.
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If the Sun is suffering from sunspots (parts of the cold plasma on the surface) and the Earth is in the atmosphere of the Sun:
*Does this mean climate change is a cooling of the Earth?
* What is/where is this global warming?.
* Can there be similar the graphics of the Maunder Minimum and the Earth's climate in recent times?
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Okay, because it is a slow day, I decided to make the comparison that Diana asks about. Let's compare the Maunder Minimum with the second half of the 20th Century. Since there isn't really that much data, we are limited to a few quantities. I have chosen two, one is the total solar irradiance (TSI), which is the energy received by the Earth from the sun (per time per area, expressed in Watts per square meter). This data comes from a reconstruction by Wang et al. (2005) as modified by Kopp & Lean (2011), and was obtained at the link below. This data is very similar to other reconstructions (Lean et al. 2004, 2000, 1995), but is basically shifted downward by about 5 W/m2 as a recalibration. The updated data covers 1610 to 2011. The second quantity we can investigate is the northern hemisphere temperature anomaly (degrees C). There are not direct observations (of sufficient quality) reaching back to the Maunder Minimum, so we will use the temperature reconstruction of Moberg et al. (2005). That data actually stops at 1979, but we can visually extend the data to near present day by including the observed northern hemisphere temperature anomaly from Smith et al. (2008) which reaches to January 2012. For the Smith et al. data, I chose to use the land plus ocean values. There is an issue with baselines, the Moberg et al. data are anomalies with respect to the 1961-1990 average temperature while the Smith et al. data are with respect to the 1901-2000 average temperature (which is cooler than the shorter, later average). I have not adjusted for this offset, and the result is that the pink dots in the figure should actually all be slightly upward compared to the red line. The agreement between the overlapping interval is quite good, but would be a little worse if the shift were included. There are other reconstructions available, and I have no reason to choose Moberg's over the others except that it is perhaps the most recent. The TSI and temperature reconstruction data are both annual, and I've made sure the data are centered within each year. The Smith et al. data are monthly (which is why I need to center the annual records).
Finally, just for completeness, I define the Maunder Minimum using the definition on the Wikipedia page, which is 1645 to 1715. This is in line with the TSI data. For the more recent climate, I chose to simply shift 300 years into the future. So the plots cover 1945 to 2015, but the data sets stop at whatever their last times are. The Maunder Minimum times and data are shown in blue, while the 20th/21st Century data are shown in red and pink with the time labeled along the top of each panel.
To try to head off any misinterpretation of this plot, let me simply state what it shows. During the Maunder Minimum, there was reduced solar activity and the average northern hemisphere temperature was about 0.6 C cooler than the the 1961-1990 average value. During the period covering 1945 to the 1960s/1970s, the northern hemisphere temperatures were relatively flat and near their 20th Century average. Over those years, the sun was active, showing "normal" sunspot and TSI 11-year cycles. From some time in the 1970s until present, shown in the pink circles, the northern hemisphere average temperature shows a clear upward trend. All the monthly average values after 1996 are warmer than the 20th Century average. During this rapid and clear warming, the solar activity was typical, and quite similar to the 1945-1975 period, showing clear quasi-periodic activity. There appears to be little connection between variation in solar activity and variation in northern hemisphere average temperature during the late 20th Century.
REFERENCES
Kopp & Lean (Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L01706, doi:10.1029/2010GL045777, 2011)
Lean, J.. 2004: Solar Irradiance Reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology. Data Contribution Series # 2004-035. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.
Lean, J. 2000: Evolution of the Sun's Spectral Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 27, No. 16, pp. 2425-2428, Aug. 15, 2000.
Lean, J., J. Beer, and R. Bradley. 1995: Reconstruction of Solar Irradiance Since 1610: Implications for Climate Change. Geophysical Research Letters, v.22, No. 23, pp 3195-3198, December 1, 1995.
Moberg, A., D.M. Sonechkin, K. Holmgren, N.M. Datsenko and W. Karlén. 2005: Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low-and high-resolution proxy data. Nature, Vol. 433, No. 7026, pp. 613-617, 10 February 2005.
Wang, Lean, and Sheeley (The Astrophysical Journal, 625:522-538, 2005 May 20)
DATA SOURCES
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Looking for expert on Ice Age "Cycles" (glacial/interglacial) to discuss and ultimately prove or disprove my theory that the interglacial we are currently experiencing is still causing a slow but constantly warming effect on the Earth's climate. If established research has been done on this subject, your direction to it's web-site, etc., would be greatly appreciated so that I won't need to "re-invent the wheel". I've done some fair amount of research concerning Ice Ages, Milankovitch Cycles, etc., and determined from my studies that the Earth should slowly continue to warm, until either:
1. Most or all global ice (Polar ice caps, glaciers, mountain snowpacks, snowfields, etc.) has melted, resulting in average global temperature stabilization.
2. The Earth enters another Ice Age (glacial).
If the Earth's ice melts, the Earth's global albedo (reflectivity) will lower, meaning it will absorb more of the sun's light and heat energy, resulting in temperature increase (ie: Global Warming). Warming encourages more ice melt and the cycle repeats. Also, the sea levels will slowly continually rise. (There is evidence that during past warm periods in Earth's history, the sea levels have been up to 30 feet higher than today's level).
Al Gore, I speculate, would say the Earth's average global temperature should not be rising, (more or less stabilized), and the warming is caused by CO2 from fossil fuels, etc. I show here how warming is a natural occuring effect of the Earth, and do not expect temp stabilization at this point.
I try to read most articles I can find concerning G/W, but haven't seen anything discussing what I'm trying to describe here. Please let me know if you need more details, clarification, etc., if I have it right, or where I'm wrong. Do you know if there's a video/movie showing what I've described? Thank you for any responses and your time. -Ken
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Dear Ken,
Typically, the deglatiation, i.e., the termination of an "ice age" occurs when a slight change in climate forcing associated with changes in Earth´s orbit parameters (I may explain this in detail in other post) triggers feedbacks that ultimately lead to a relatively rapid increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases and temperature rise. Pretty much, an interglacial begins with maximum CO2 and CH4 concentrations, which start to decrease, helping the income of a new glacial period. Of course, depending apparently on astronomic factors (such as low eccentricity), some interglacials (as MIS11) have a natural tendency of longer duration and even a second rise in the concentration of greenhouse gases. In this sense, MIS19 and MIS11 (about 800 and 400 kyr ago) are considered the Holocene astronomic cousins and we could have some insights on what would be a possible natural evolution of the later, without human influence.
The question, though, is that human race became such a strong climate agent, that the scales of the emissions and the speed of changes are completely different from the natural evolution of an interglacial. First, CO2 concentrations typically ranged from about 200 ppm ("ice ages") to less than 300 ppm (peak interglacial, right after the deglatiation). Nowadays we are approaching 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, with no room to discuss the origin of it (the isotopic signature clearly shows the fossil fuel imprint). And in geological scale, this happened so fast that is seen as a spike. No natural process (with the possible exceptions of collisions with major objects) is able to cause such sudden changes. Therefore, the destabilization of climate, with the possible triggering of known and unknown feedbacks cannot be considered as something beneficial for humanity. Major changes in many things that affect our lives are expected, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events (this is another issue I may address further). Hence, this is an irresponsible, not-controlled climate experiment with the planet with live on, so procrastination in taking action to reduce emissions has to come to an end.
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Hi...
I know this is a very disputed topic, but I need to know if anyone can tell me what physical state the core of the earth is in, and what its composition is. I need to know this along with supporting data, so if you could please provide me with the published papers regarding the same, I would be grateful to you, as I wish to put forward a hypothesis, before which I need to strengthen my base in geology and learn more about what others have found out through seismic sensing and other analyses.
Thanks!
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Recent seismic studies by Xiaodong Song and Xinlei Sun of the Dept Geology, Univ Illinois at Urban Champaign indicate that the Earth has a solid inner core composed mainly of iron with a diameter of 2440 km. There is also an inner inner core with a diameter of ~1,180 km and a fluid outer core with a diameter of ~7,000 km. The inner and the inner inner cores appear to have slightly different anisotropic properties. Contact Song to see where this is published.
Willy Weeks