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Monsoon - Science topic

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I am doing research on climatology monsoon onset date with a new index and I would like to calculate each parameter for each grid cell of NetCDF data. Therefore, I would to know How to calculate statistical results for each grid cell of the NetCDF data file in R Programming? And How to plot monsoon onset isochrones figure map?
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Ákos Bede-Fazekas Thank you for your guideline Sir.
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Extended/edited from an early question for clarity.
I have temporally high resolution outputs of modelled climate data (model x, spanning 0-5000 ka. Low spatial resolution 0.5 degrees). Compared to other climate models, however, I have reason to believe it is under-predicting precipitation/temperature changes at certain time intervals. Is there a way to calibrate this with better quality records (i.e., those available via WorldClim/PaleoClim)?
For example, the response to the MIS 5e (120-130 ka BP) incursion of the African Summer Monsoon and Indian Summer Monsoon into the Saharan and Arabian deserts is very weak compared to the MIS 5e data from WorldClim/PaleoClim (and corroborated by palaeoclimatic data). Can I correct/calibrate model x with these more responsive models, and how should this be done?
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Dear @Sam Nicholson, I'm afraid climate models do not calibrate any parameter. These models are developed considering different physical processes in terms of their equations. The number of physical processes considered, the way in which they are analytically described and also numerically implemented, depends on different factors, including the spatio-temporal discretization of the climate model (i.e. grid dimension, time step length) and the total temporal horizon to be simulated. The evolution of the state variables of climate models depends on different model forcings such as the income radiative flux affecting the modeled system through the physical processes considered by the model (e.g. vapor condensation, evaporation, moisture recycling, etc. ). Therefore, to simulate the expected paleoclimate trends, which are often revealed by different proxies, you should include the corresponding climate forcings in the model, which are supposed to generate such paleoclimate trends.
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I am using RUSLE model for determining erosion in watersheds of Nepal. I want to know the level of erosion due to precipitation in monsoon. So can I use precipitation of only monsoon months (June- September) in the model instead of average annual precipitation ?
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I have temporally high resolution modelled climate data (model x). Compared to other climate models, however, I have reason to believe it is under-predicting precipitation/temperature changes. Is there a way to calibrate this with better quality records (i.e., those available via WorldClim/PaleoClim)?
For example, the response to the MIS 5e (|120-130 ka BP) incursion of the African Summer Monsoon and Indian Summer Monsoon into the Saharan and Arabian deserts is very weak compared to the MIS 5e data from WorldClim/PaleoClim. Can I correct/calibrate model x with these more responsive models, and how should this be done?
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Dear Sam, I'm afraid climate models do not calibrate any parameter. These models are developed considering different physical processes in terms of their equations. The number of physical processes considered, the way in which they are analytically described and numerically implemented depends on different factors, including the spatio-temporal discretization of the climate model (i.e. grid dimension, time step length) ensuring the numerical convergence of the solution at every time step, and the total temporal horizon to be simulated. The evolution of the state variables of climate models depends on the different model forcings such as the income radiative flux affecting the modeled system through the physical processes considered by the model (e.g. vapor condensation, evaporation, moisture recycling, etc. ). Therefore, to simulate the expected paleoclimate trends, which are often revealed by different proxies, you should include the corresponding climate forcings in the model, which are supposed to generate such paleoclimate trends.
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Monsoon causes landslides, power cut, survival of tribes become more difficult, suggestions for precautions, ideas to prevent the livelihoods
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Management of flow and aquifer capacity can reduce the adverse effect
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Please help me identify the different SST regions effecting monsoon regions of South America and North America
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Hello Guillermo,
Thankyou so much for helping me out. It helped me a lot and i compiled the sst regions corresponding to south america monsoon.
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Two things emerge from the works of Jung et al. (2002) and Beasley et al. (2021):
1) Due to solar insolation, there have been decadal to centennial-scale changes in the upper oceanic water temperatures (2 to 3 deg.C) during the early Holocene in the Arabian Sea that modulated upwelling and monsoon precipitation (Jung et al., 2002);
2) Such monsoonal precipitation and upwelling changes might have occurred since the Oligocene-Miocene transition when the monsoon system got established (Beasley et al., 2021).
Our earlier work indicated short-term oscillations of phosphorus burial in the continental margins of the Arabian Sea (Phosphorus Deposition in Arabian Sea Sediments through Time - https://www.prl.res.in/~library/planetary_and_geosciences.htm that I interpreted as:
“Contrary to the widely held view that phosphorus could affect primary productivity in the long run, here we show evidence to believe that phosphorus may become a limiting nutrient on centennial to millennial scales, provided that its supply to the water column is restricted during high productivity episodes. Such evidence comes from the spectral analysis of phosphorus data obtained from the analysis of core sediments collected from the continental margin sediments of the eastern Arabian Sea. The results show century to millennial-scale oscillations in the burial flux of phosphorus to the sediments, which can be attributed to ocean circulation changes and intensification of SW monsoonal wind strength, which together modulates upwelling of remobilised nutrients and water column productivity. .........These results suggest that short-term solar oscillations can influence water column primary productivity and thereby phosphorus burial in the continental margin sediments of the Arabian Sea. When the phosphorus burial rate is high and the phosphorus supply to the water column is restricted (low river discharge and reduced upwelling), it may become a limiting nutrient. The century and millennial-scale oscillations in phosphorus burial rate imply that such a possibility can arise in the short term, contrary to the widely held belief that phosphorus limits productivity only on geological time scales.”
Now a few things have become clear. The oscillations in phosphorus burial may also have arisen from centennial-scale solar insolation changes that modulated the strength of the monsoon and the delivery of riverine supply of phosphorus. Moreover, changes in the upwelling may have regulated productivity and the observed phosphorus burial signal.
A further complication to this interpretation arises from a recent study suggesting that adsorption of phosphorus by iron oxides and its release during hypoxic events - the iron-phosphorus feedback - can drive multidecadal oscillations in hypoxia. The authors wrote:
“Our study shows that changes in the distribution of iron oxides between deep and shallow areas of the Baltic Sea led to self-sustaining variability (oscillations) in oxygen stress on decadal timescales during past intervals in the Sea’s 8000-year history. We use a model to demonstrate that under certain conditions of climate and nutrient pressure, such variability may occur naturally........” (Jilbert et al., 2021).
Therefore, more insight is needed to assess the short-term limitation of oceanic productivity by phosphorus in circulation-limited or enclosed oceanic regions.
Further reading:
Beasley, C., Kender, S., Giosan, L., Bolton, C.T., Anand, P., Leng, M.J., Nilsson‐Kerr, K., Ullmann, C.V., Hesselbo, S.P., Littler, K., 2021. Evidence of a South Asian proto‐monsoon during the Oligocene–Miocene transition. Paleoceanogr Paleoclimatol. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021PA004278
Jilbert, T., Gustafsson, B.G., Veldhuijzen, S., Reed, D.C., Helmond, N.A.G.M., Hermans, M., Slomp, C.P., 2021. Iron‐phosphorus feedbacks drive multidecadal oscillations in Baltic Sea hypoxia. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095908
Jung, S.J.A., Davies, G.R., Ganssen, G., Kroon, D., 2002. Decadal-centennial scale monsoon variations in the Arabian Sea during the Early Holocene. Geochem.-Geophys.-Geosyst. 3, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GC000348
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Dear Researchers,
We are aware that a shift in monsoon peak discharge may have an adverse impact on several water-based applications such as agriculture, dam operations, etc. E.g. I am interested to know how to quantify the same based on modeling approaches. Thank you!
Sincerely,
Aman Srivastava
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I think these papers could help you;
  1. On the Suitability of GCM Runoff Fields for River Discharge Modeling: A Case Study Using Model Output from HadGEM2 and ECHAM5, February 2012,
  2. Development of a high resolution runoff routing model, calibration and application to assess runoff from the LMD GCM, September 2003,
  3. Climate change and its impacts on river discharge in two climate regions in China, November 2015,
  4. Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Indrawati River Basin, Nepal, February 2016,
They're available on the ResearchGate Server for download.
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I don't have a full view about Monsoon(s). Is it a wind system or a low pressure system? It is a phenomenon that occurs on India or it is a phenomena that occur in many parts of the world? Why does the wind tend to change its direction (reversal) between summer and winter?
Can you kindly give me your personal opinions? Is the monsoon a global system?
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Thanks again dear Mr. Dremann
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It has been know for some time now that the Indian monsoon variability can have an impact on the European heat waves via the circum-global teleconnection. However, my question is, is there a similar similar connection that transmits the impact of European heatwaves on the variability of Indian monsoon rainfall.
Suggestions for papers on this topic are welcome.
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I think so because the monsoon is a global phenomenon.
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Generally this year throughout the india we received excessive rains except some patches this might be due to the during lock down period there was less pollution. It may have positive effect on nature with this we received more rains.
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This may belong to many reasons: temperature increase leads to more evaporation and energy. The setting of surrounding high pressure systems may cause a dense air which makes the warm humid air to ascend forming cumuliform rainy clouds.
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Dated: 10-June-2020.
Perhaps!
Prefatory, it may be, because this year the radiations and greenhouse gases interaction feedback processes on different timescale (one of the main factor in monsoon dynamics) which makes the monsoon predictability erratic is not expected to add much uncertainty in the prediction system due to the substantial reduction in the greenhouse gas emissions. Implies, may be an upper hand for potential predictive models in the line. Recall that model ability to predict the SW monsoon is higher with initial conditions been used for the month of Feb., March, April (this years these are main lockdown month in the world when atmosphere is not invaded by atmospheric gases) than months closer to the SW monsoon. On other side, can be also be test bed for the models have near accurate long rage forecasting tendency with early months (as mentioned above) initial conditions.
Over all it may be also be manifested that NATURE can be predicted correctly if it is not disturbed. BUT if we keep on disturbing it then predictability may not be that easy and precise.
If yes, then "Commendations" to the accurate predictability of the monsoon system will be higher this year, I think. Good! This may also considered because of Nature natural tendency is higher this year apart from having well resolved and improved interannual and climate systems predictability aspects in the modelling systems, etc...
Nature is in NATURAL swing. Enjoy and try to be safe! But we should also be ready for the monsoon system predictability in the times to come or years to come when emissions will again be dumped in the earth system. It will certainly obstruct the prediction realities. Consistency is the accuracy in the prediction should be addressed responsibly.
What’s your take on that!
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I think yes.
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ECMWF provides high-resolution analysis for model initialization. Is it fine to use only a single domain over a hilly terrain with 9km grid spacing for rainfall simulation during monsoon season? Will it impact the large-scale systems? Please suggest.
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There is no exact rule to define the grid spacing on the horizontal, but since your study is on mountainous terrain, I recommend that you run the model with at least one nesting (two domains total). You could simulate with 12 and 4 km or with 9 and 3 km of resolution for the parent domain and the nested domain respectively.
Whether this resolution will affect large-scale systems will depend on the boundaries of the study area. Therefore, it is important that you identify the processes that interact with the study area and delimit correctly.
You should review articles about success stories with the WRF model in your study area or in areas with similar characteristics. In addition, it is always recommended to carry out a sensitivity study of the WRF model with different physical parameters so that you can identify the one that best suits your study area.
Finally, the available computing capacity is also important to consider when defining the resolution to implement with the WRF model.
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Majority of the Indian rivers are monsoonal fed rivers. I want to know how an intense monsoon phase can be detected in the depositional archives of river using any isotope.
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Thank you so much @Areezo.
Will surely go through your suggestions.
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Nepal Himalaya is controlled by monsoon system so which methods are best to analyze the erosivity.
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Sher Bahadur Gurung there was a scientific paper i came across and I guess this answers your question please refer to the link shared here with
which shows the details about " Determining bioclimatic space of Himalayan alder for agroforestry systems in Nepal "
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Hello all,
i am new to water chemistry, i have been looking at trends in the water chemistry parameters, and found there is significant decreasing trend in Stream-water temperature, Ca, Mg, Na, and chloride along with discharge both in the monsoon and non-monsoon seasons.
Like From Jan 1994, Jan 1995, Jan 1996...... Jan 2018 (for Non-Monsoon period) Sept 1994, sept 1995, sept 1996...................Sept 2018 (Monsoon period)
Note- watershed (1000 km2 drainage area, Western Ghats, India) is free from dams and other water structures.
What could be possible drivers of trends in the above parameters?
Please provide your valuable suggestions.
Thanks in advance.
Regards
Rajat
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A couple of my earliest Researchgate entries and citations may be informative, even though different conditions. Many water quality parameters have influence from flow rate (discharge), and in part often due to rainfall dilution effect, runoff and movement of sediment and other non-point pollutants and nutrients during storms. You may find a hysteresis effect with markedly higher values during rising limb of hydrograph, and lower rates as hydrograph recedes. Geology and groundwater and its chemistry influences contribute to varying degrees as some streams loose water to groundwater, while others gain water inputs from groundwater for substantial periods of time. There are many books and papers on the subject, as well as professional or informational courses. It is not unusual to find these trends. Stream temperature in many locations increases in the summer growing season as more solar radiation, higher temperatures with lower streamflow often combine to elevate temperatures. Streams heavily augmented by groundwater or springflow as well as dense forest cover have substantially less effect than conditions without these benefits. In one of my studies, mountain streams without dense forest cover actually had lower winter temperatures, so forested stream buffers may have a moderating effect on temperature extremes in both summer and winter. It is highly useful to have recording water levels to estimate flow rates with time. A relative moderate expense tool for this is transducer (vented or barometric adjusted unvented). Streams with excessive sediment may contribute to transducer fouling, but properly installed, they can collect high quality data for weeks or months without service. The USGS collects flow data every 15 minutes, and appropriate for your study area. For small catchments, more frequent readings may be needed. A variety of tools or techniques are available to collect samples during storms or more routinely, if ample research funding exists.
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I've heard many different interpretations, that there will be no change, that there will be an increase, and there will be a decrease? Which is the most likely?
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Patrice Poyet Thank you so much for your exhaustive reply. my best regards. Franco
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I have two types of climate data for more than 80 stations of a region, and data is in the form of monthly, monsoon, non-monsoon, and annual form. I want to develop a certain relationship or develop equation (s) between those parameters.
Please suggest any software/models/methods which could perform that task. I don't want to use correlation coefficients like R2 and NSE etc., because those can not develop justified equations for that huge amount of data for more than 80 stations of the study region.
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Hi Ankur,
there are several methods to find the relation between two variables, the most known is to use regressions of type: linear, power, logarithmic, ...etc, otherwise you find also the new techniques of artificial intelligence to link the two variables, Artificial Neural Networks ANN, ...etc
good luck
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I'm attempting to build a hypothesis about the Gupta Empire of classical India, and am interested in understanding monsoon and temperature levels. Tree rings, Himalayan ice cores, any leads would be great!
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Dear Anirudh,
You will find a lot of papers based on the past 2000 yrs of climate history in India. Few of them
1. Yadava and Ramesh 2005: Monsoon reconstruction from radiocarbon-dated tropical Indian speleothems
2. Sinha et al., 2011: The leading mode of Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation variability during the last millennium
3. Sinha et al., 2015: Trends and oscillations in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall over the last two millennia....................................
Important review papers...................
Misra et al., 2019: Holocene climate records from lake sediments in India: Assessment of coherence across climate zones
Dixit and Tandon 2016: Hydroclimatic variability on the Indian subcontinent in the past millennium: Review and assessment
Please also go through the papers from the Himalayan region based on pollens and treen rings. You will get a lot of information.
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Recently I was got Rainfall Data from District Statistical Office for a Station near Belgaum (Karnataka). When I was going through the data, I found there were missing Rainfall values in Monsoon Season ( June-September). Please suggest me how do I fill the missing Rainfall Data ranging from 01 days to 03 days.
Thank you In Advance
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Take average value of rainfall from nearly located gauging sites
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I'm interested to know about what are currently the biggest unsolved problems or opportunities for further research in Holocene. And particular focus in Arabian Sea/Northen Indian Ocean sector.
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Hi there !
It's very difficult to find a short answer to such a question. But maybe I don't need to.
I would recommend you to look into the latest IPCC reports. While the new version of the main assessment report is only due in April 2021 (AR6 WGI: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ ), there is already available plenty of available resources from the fifth assessment report https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ and also from the special report on ocean and cryosphere (especially for the high mountain regions) and on the special report on 1.5° of warming ( https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ ).
What I find personally very interesting is how the monsoon systems will react to the impact of climate change. While during the holocene, both the Indian and African monsoon systems have decreased in intensity due to the impact of precession, it is not clear yet how they will evolved in a warmer climate.
I hope this helps, it is a lot to read, but the summary for policy makers can maybe already offer you the answer you're looking for. The complete reports are still very useful though !
Cheers,
Mathieu
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Dear All,
I'd like to plot high-resolution figures of paleoclimate data, Please suggest the best and most friendly software.
Advance thanks,
Saravanan
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Hi,
The attached file is printed out by NCL. It is very easy to generate beautiful figures if you add "load "$NCARG_ROOT/lib/ncarg/nclscripts/csm/popRemap.ncl"".
Here is the instruction website "http://www.ncl.ucar.edu/Applications/paleo.shtml ". I hope the NCL can help you.
Zhibo
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India witnessed a very good monsoon period this year. The area under almost all the crops is in increased trend except oil seeds. But in my state ( Telangana) because of regulated farming, good monsoon rains & assured irrigation facilities the area under Paddy ( Rice) is almost doubled. We are surplus in production so here I want to know what are the best quality norms to export the Rice.
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(PDF) Export of Rice from India: Performance and Determinants
www.researchgate.net › publication › 304710097_Export...
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There are 6 Homogeneous Monsoon Regions.
1. What criteria has been used for determine their boundary?
2. Is there any officially published record mentioning the technicalities behind delineation?
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I have IMD grid data (0.25 by 0.25 resolution) in text format.
How to extract rainfall data of a river basin? any tutorials?
If it's not possible in ArcGIS any other software?
I am familiar with the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen's slop estimation etc, Can we use IMD gridded data for these analyses? any tutorials?
Can we convert IMD gridded data (0.25 by 0.25 resolution) to Taluk / District / Statewise for the analysis?
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Open the *.grd data using ENVI following these steps:
Step 1: Open the file and give parameters e.g. Samples = <no of columns>, Lines = <no. o frows>, Bands = 365, File type ENVI standard, Data type= Floating, Interleave = BSQ.
Step 2: Rotate the image by Angle = 270 and Transpose = Yes
Step 3: Change the Map Info.... Image X: 1, Image Y:1, Proj: Geographic Lat/Lon, Daturm: WGS84, E = 66.5, N = 37.5, X Pixel Size = 0.25 Deg, Y pixel size = 0.25 Deg
Step 4: Change geographic corner coordinates: Point 1: 1 (image X), 1 (Image Y), 37.5 (Lat), 66.5(Lon), Point 2: <no of column>, 1, 37.5, 100.5; Point 3: 1, <no. of rows>, 6.5, 66.5; Point 4: <no. of columns>, <no. of rows>, 6.5, 100.5.
thats it.. enjoy !!
Step 5: copy the *.hdr file and rename it as template.hdr and make a batch file (e.g. rename.bat) with command copy template.hdr <name of the other files> so that all four steps are not to be repeated next time.
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Generally it is said that it is permanent problem and with no solution as we have no control on weather,we know very well that nutrient is blood of land and due to this loss directly the quality of agricultural soil get destroyed and we are facing this every year.
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In this case basal does is totally wastage specially n case of rice cultivation how will it effect if we planted little earlier so that it will grow well during time of heavy monsoon as we all now that nutrient is blood of land but early it is wasting and farmer are buying fertilizer at high cost.🙄🙄
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Hi everyone,
Can someone help me and suggest what statistic method is best to use to find out and show if there is a shift in rainfall from one month to another or to show if the rainfall is getting prolonged.
I have rainfall from 1975 to 2015, and my study area has 2 monsoon and 2 inter-monsoon periods. One monsoon and one inter-monsoon periods have the highest rainfall while the other monsoon and inter-monsoon periods have low rainfalls. I wanted to see if the convectional rainfall in the inter-monsoon period is shifting or getting prolonged into the drier monsoon period using statistics.
Thank you for your suggestions,
Regards,
Majid.
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Dear Sir/Madam,
I am a practitioner working on watershed development. I work in Odisha which is a high rainfall area (1200-1400 mm annual rainfall) and in areas where the main source of irrigation is open wells. There are very few bore/tube wells.
I seek your assistance is suggesting papers/sharing your thoughts on the following questions:
1. During monsoon what% of rainfall is retained in the subsurface soil, which is available through shallow wells? 2. How long the subsurface water available in shallow wells after monsoon? 3. If the water has been withdrawal from shallow wells for irrigation, how long it takes to recover? (Apart from the parameters of soil texture and geology) 4. If a borewells has been pumped, does it also reduce the wa ter in shallow wells. Are there any thumb rules guiding this?
Your suggestions would be very helpful. Regards Subrat
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Well,
Tritium environmental isotopes can be applied with the chloride mixing mechanism.
Regards
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Our group is trying to investigate the relationship between regional precipitation (especially over regions of east Asia monsoon and South Asia Monsoon) climatology and atmospheric front? We aim to analyze plenty of front cases to show the physical mechanisms and the climatological changes in the cyclone and front-induced precipitation.
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You should read the book (Today's Meteorology: An Introduction to Weather, Climate and Environment), Fronts Section
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This i a water sample taken in monsoon seaspn.
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Try to identify the species through one of the sources of diversity of aquatic plants
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we are mining uranium and milling it a few kilometers away from a flowing river. The tailing dam, meant for storing the tailings of the mill overflow during the monsoon and probably flows into the river. This is the background.
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this will be based on the river stage (darcy law) and the uranium will be moved to and from the river based the hydraulic gradient
hydrus 3d software can model this situation
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  1. I have studies 15 water samples for the period of 24 months for 8 Metals and 7 physicochemical parameters.
  2. Similarly I have studied 15 soil samples before monsoon and after monsoon for 8 Metals and 7 physicochemical parameters.
  3. Please suggest me the statistical tests for the water analysis and soil analysis
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Kindly go through the attached file. Here you get your expected answer, here methodology is fulfill your demand.
Regards
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I want to explore the dynamics of droughts in Kirthar National Park, the 2nd largest national park in Pakistan. It has 3 main streams which flow only during monsoon rains. There are no gauges to monitor the flow or the soil moisture conditions. There are 3 rainfall gauges in the vicinity of the park which I can use to monitor meteorological drought.
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There are more than 100 drought indices being used/studied worldwide for drought monitoring. You may consider many other indices for more than one parameters like SPEI, TVDI, NDVI, VCI, VHI ETC. Some are ground based and some are satellite based parameters and indices.
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Ti is carried in silt and in fine sand fractions during transportation. Thus, if the the ratio of Ti/Al increases, grain size becomes coarser and we often use this as a parameter of aridity or terrigeneous flux.Also, the ITCZ shows southward migration, which is coherrent with the decrease in the monsoonal precipitation (Indian Summer MOnsoon {ISM}). Does, the curve of Ti% v/s Age has some effect to decouple the shift in the ITCZ as well?
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The seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the latitude of maximum insolation regulates the monsoon circulation. During summer (June to September) ITCZ shifts towards the low pressure area (~23°N) and surface winds bringing large amount of precipitation from SW ocean (Arabian sea) to central India.
In lacustrine sequence, Ti can be used as proxy (tool) to understand the surface runoff from the catchment. Higher Ti concentration means higher surface runoff. High atmospheric rainfall leads to increase in the surface runoff and thus high Ti concentration in sediments.
There are lot of paper, deals with the relation between Ti and monsoon intensity.
1. Haug et al., 2001: southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone through the Holocene.
2. Doberschutz et al., Monsoonal forcing of Holocene paleoenvironmental change on the central Tibetan Plateau inferred using a sediment record from Lake Nam Co (Xizang, China)
3. Mishra et al., 2015, Reconstructed late Quaternary hydrological changes from Lake Tso Moriri, NW Himalaya
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What can be the possible reason of getting evaporation effect on isotope value of groundwater samples from monsoon season?
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Thanks for your recommendations.
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Watershed development structures like Contour Trenches, Contour Bunds, Loose Boulder Structures are built to arrest the run-off and soil erosion. They facilitate the infiltration, which trigger improved soil moisture and water table.
We work on the watershed development in India. I wanted to know the relationship between watershed development structures and soil moisture in following regards:
How does impact of watershed structures on soil moisture vary with the
  1. soil depth?
  2. soil type?
  3. time after the monsoon (rainy) season?
  4. distance from the watershed structure?
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Good hydrology models account for soil water content when considering soil runoff. The two models I am familiar with are the curve number model, which using antecedent water content as one of the inputs, and there is usually a table giving suggestions for how to do this. I personally like the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model hydrology that does a continuous run, but does a water balance each day. That means that sometimes a less severe storm on a wet soil will generate more runoff than a more severe storm on a dry soil. As the model is run for maybe 50 years, there are many combinations of storm severity and soil water content in that time fram to consider a number of possible conditions that may occur,
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Hello! I am an archaeologist interested in paleoenvironmental studies at very small spatial scales in the Argentinean Puna. Basically, I'm trying to establish if there is a correlation between South American Monsoon System intensity and current precipitations in my specific study area. There is some debate as to whether or not this is the case...
I thought that I could run a regression between a "SASM index" over the last decades and precipitation records in regional weather stations, similarly to what has been done to test the influence of ENSO in the same area. Do you have any suggestions as to where to begin? Bear in mind that I am not a climatologist, so sophisticated climatological models are out of the question.
Thank you in advance for your help!
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Ari Jokimäki
Guillermo Auad
Thank you both!
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I would like to know whether I should consider the post monsoon or pre monsoon season for analysing the LU/LC and the reason for considering the season.
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I think, Pre-monsoon because that time land and soil moisture in a moderate condition
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When we have extreme variations of geo-chemical parameters (such as pH, EC and TDS) between pre- and post- monsoon periods, how exactly - the multi-variable regression analysis is going to be useful?
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You could, for instance, use it to find out which variables are mostly independent of the season which might be interesting in itself. Do you have the access to the meteorological data? Perhaps there are continuous variables associated with the monsoon (wind direction, speed, temperature, humidity, precipitation, etc.) which you could use instead? You could also consider dividing your data into two sub-sets (monsoon and not-monsoon) and running the analysis separately.
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North-East Monsoon and its associated CYCLONES In Peninsular INDIA: Why is it too complex to forecast?
Is it because of the weak Coriolis force along the tropical zone in comparison with that along the polar regions?
Is it because the complex non-linear relation between wind and pressure along the tropical region than that observed along the poles?
What additional parameters play a critical role in forecasting the wind (weather) pattern in the vicinity of the tropical zone - with reference to that of the polar regions?
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If the upper-air circulation patterns as well as the steering winds are studied carefully, it is not so difficult to forecast cyclones in the peninsular India. It may become complex if a 'Col' develops at 300/200 hPa level over the cyclone area. Of course the Coriolis force near the low latitude may have some effect on the intensity and direction of the movement of cyclone. @
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Did Indian Monsoon rainfall do have effect on the position of the thermal equator? Can anyone share paper that shows any relationship. I did search but did not find any or maybe I did mislook.
Thank you in advance,
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Thank you sir.
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ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation Index) is computed using the anomalies in SST (Sea Surface Temperature) for a 3-month running mean period. While exploring correlation between ENSO and monthly rainfall for Indian region, should the rainfall series be also formulated as anomalies of 3-month running mean or individual monthly correlations between ENSO and rainfall anomalies should be explored?
Thanks in advance for your useful inputs!
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The following papers may help you.
1. Tariq Masood Ali Khan, Arif Mahmood, Nadeem Faisal, M. M. Rabbani. (2006). “Influence of ENSO on the Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over Pakistan”, in the proceedings of International Roundtable “Understanding and Forecasting of Monsoons (Editor: PNVinayachandran)”, organized by Center for Science Technology of the Non-Aligned and other Developing Countries (NAM S&T) during 21-24 November 2005 held in Indonesia, Published by Daya Publishing House, Delhi. 119-126.
2. Arif Mahmood, Tariq Masood Ali Khan and Nadeem Faisal(2006), Relationship Between El Nino and Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Pakistan, Pakistan Journal of Marine Sciences, 15, 2, 161-178.
3. Arif Mahmood, Tariq Masood Ali Khan, Nadeem Faisal (2004) “Correlation between Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and Pakistan’s Summer Rainfall. Pakistan J. of Meteorology, Vol. 1, 2, 53-64.
4. O. P. Singh, Tariq Masood Ali Khan, Md. Sazedur Rahman and Salahuddin (2000) "Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Bangladesh in relation to Multivariate ENSO Index", Mausam, 51, 3, 255-260.
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Recently some researches prove that there is no more long term correlation of ISMR with ENSO where as other researches prove exactly opposite . Here, I want to know the exact answer between these two factors with proof.
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Overall, there is a clear negative correlation between ENSO and the Indian monsoon rainfall in both observations and models and the average correlation is about -0.4. The monsoon therefore weakens on average during El Nino. This is the main driver of seasonal forecasts for the Indian monsoon as ENSO is predictable with quite good skill a few months ahead.
Some of the confusion arises because the strength of the monsoon-ENSO correlation fluctuates from one multi-decadal period to the next. Some studies therefore claim the relationship is 'non-stationary' in time. However, it's important to note that atmospheric chaos will inevitably lead to some of these fluctuations and so the underlying relationship is more constant than observations alone would suggest. This last point is made in the recent paper by Shukla and colleagues:
Hope this helps
Adam
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I have collected groundwater level data during pre-post monsoon and also Pumping Test Data according aquifer prop.
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For calculating various hydraulic properties of aquifer systems, viz., transmissivity (T), hydraulic conductivity (K), storage coefficient (S) etc from pumping (aquifer) test which is the standard technique for that. Kindly see here
"Hydrogeological Parameters Calculation "Springer
Also, a graphical method is widely used for that, Please see here
G. Venkata Rao, P. Kalpana, R. Srinivasa Rao "Estimation of Aquifer Properties Using Pumping Tests: Case Study of Pydibhimavaram Industrial Area, Srikakulam, India " World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology International Journal of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Vol:9, No:9, 2015 (https://waset.org/publications/10002811/estimation-of-aquifer-properties-using-pumping-tests-case-study-of-pydibhimavaram-industrial-area-srikakulam-india)
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I have plotted climatology using tropflux data during 2014-16. It shows Arabian sea during DJF high.
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Have to verified LHF with surface wind and SST ?
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How does water pH of a fresh water or floodplain lake/wetland vary in different seasons of a year- Pre-monsoon , Monsoon and Post-monsoon?
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To add up on the answer provided by Ita, the nature of water during wet season can contribute to the variation in pH. For instance if the rainfall is acidic. The nature of flood water entering the system is dependent on the nature of soil and the vegetation cover. Dilution due to increased amount of water in wet season and concentration due to evaporation in drier season can also contribute the variation.
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What is the possibility of SW monsoon distribution in the north india
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SW monsoon 2017 was weak during August and Sept in North India
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Im plotting pre monsoon (May) and post monsoon (Nov) and fluctuation of Depth to water level from 1996 to 2016 to show the trend in water level. I have related the data with annual rainfall (shows declining trend over same period) where post-monsoon and fluctuation trend line show declination whereas pre-monsoon shows inclination in water level.. I'm not understanding the reason for inclination in pre-monsoon data.. what could be the reason behind?? Additionally my watershed has 2 reservoirs and is agricultural dominated specially kharif crops.
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Will you please tell for which area are you speaking about? Location of your reservoirs, soil type, average rainfall, rainfall pattern in last 10 years also give idea.
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Despite application of growth retardants and restrictive use of N fertilizers, cotton crop grown in North-Western India keeps on growing vegetatively. Since here flowering/fruiting generally conciles with monsoonal /rainy period as a result of which boll/fruit shedding takes place and little yields are obtained whereas overall biomass is very heavy.How can we mange such unwanted growth as excessive application of growth retardants like mepiquat chloride/stance etc esp during continued dry spell for 60 days is harmful and leads to super compression of nodal/inter nodal length.
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I have no experience with cotton. Have you measured soil nitrogen? Is there perhaps a lack of potassium and/or phosphorous? Can you find a better cultivar that does not grow as tall?
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To minimize the impact of seasonal grasses/shrubs and to have better estimation of cropland and urban area changes over time, what could be the best time of the year for which satellite image should be selected.
In scenario of Pakistan, I was thinking that prior to monsoon period i.e. June-July is better. What is you opinion?
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Dear Khunsa, such extreme periods are always advisable to be avoided. It depends upon the repeatibility of spatial variability validated by coefficient of variation over temporal domain...It will also depend upon whether or not , it is crop land. If it is crop land , you can take samples after the harvesting of the crop, but how will you decide the optimum grid size ( means sampling distance in the given field) in order to measure the spatial variability in soil fertility. ..
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We know that SST and wind stress play a vital role in the onset of summer monsoon in India.Here I want to know how these factors i.e SST,wind stress,relative humidity etc. are responsible in determine OLR ,eventually determining the onset. 
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Dear Sarthak,
I am puzzled by your question because, in the meteorological literature, the acronym 'OLR' stands for 'Outgoing Long-wave Radiation', i.e., the radiation emerging from the planet and lost to space, in the thermal domain. See
This spectral range is largely separate from the 'Solar' domain: the boundaries are somewhat arbitrary, but the effective overlap between these two domains is tiny from an energy point of view.
The monsoon is a large (sub-planetary) scale seasonal dynamic process that involves very many factors, including the differential heating rates over the continents and oceans. Radiation (both solar and thermal) thus plays an important role, but so does thermodynamics and in particular the evaporation from the oceans and the condensation of water vapor in clouds. I don't think that any single process or variable can be held responsible for the onset of the monsoon. For an initial introduction to this topic, see
and for specific information on the Indian monsoon, consult
Michel.
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I analysed trend of the extreme rainfall using 0.25 deg High resolution Daily rainfall Data (HRDRD) of IMD of my study region for the period 1901-2013. The extreme rainfall Indices considered for annual are Total rainfall, Rx1-day, SDII, CWD, R100 or very heavy rainfall event (Rain events greater than 100mm), R65 0r heavy rainfall event (Rain events betwn 65-100mm), R2.5-65 or Moderate rainfall (rainfall events between 2.5-65 mm), R40 or Medium rainfall (Rainfall events between 40-65mm) and R20 or Low rainfall events (Rainfall events between 20-40mm). For seasonal analysis of Monsoon (JJAS), Pre-Monsoon (MAM) and Post Monsoon (ON) Indices considered are RRTOT (ratio of seasonal rainfall/Total rainfall), CWD, SDII, R2.5-65mm (Moderate rainfall). 
I considered Precipitation concentration Analysis also Daily precipitation concentration, Monthly precipitation Concentration, Precipitation Concentration degree, Precipitation concentration period and Seasonality Index. 
For these Indices I wish to relate the influence of Multivariate ENSO (Nino 1+2, Nino 3, Nino 4, Nino 3.4 and SOI). 
My doubts are: 
1) Is my hypothesis of findings are correct...?
2) Is it necessary to relate both the Annual and seasonal extreme rainfall indices above mentioned. 
3) If it requires to find the relation between both annual and seasonal extremes rainfall indices how to consider the lead and lag time for Multivariate Indices. (Sir, Kindly more explanation for this point very specifically for Annual and Seasonal). 
4) Sir, if any, important steps need to consider for my analysis. (Could you please refer me some Papers/Study material/Examples for better understand the analysis.) 
Thank you 
Regards
Vinay
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Dibakar Pal Sir, Thank you for your Answer. 
Sir, So many papers are ther to explain the Influence of ENSO. But am specifically concerned about Multivariate ENSO and Methodolgy to interpret the relationship. How to consider the lead-lag duration of ENSO and rainfall for Annual and seasonal. 
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I have observed the role of regional tectonics and precipitation variability in the slope dynamics in the Northwest Himalaya. Hope, it also matters here, considering litho-tectonic similarity and heavy precipitation in summer monsoon.
I think, project also covers temporal fluctuations in the river discharge which regulate the landslide toe.
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Your question is hardly clear, please clarify. Although I agree there is a role of tectonic activity and precipitation variability ( and other factors as well, wind, material, etc)  in the slop dynamics anywhere. 
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I am studying the effects of this snowfall episode in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, where it was devastating and more than 30 people died as a consequence of avalanches, among other associated events... Nevertheless, I hardly find any information about its effects (except in the northeast coast of the United States...).
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Thank you Kenneth, yes, my research is based on newspapers and other historical sources (church records), and on fieldwork as well. But I was looking for some information on other places (outside the Iberian Peninsula or the USA), where the snow could have caused damage, just to contextualize my results ... I also think that the effects on the East Coast of the United States hid what happened in other places, thank you very much for your kind answer!
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Kindly share your paper  'Ón increasing monsoon rainstorm in India' published in Natural hazard  Vol 85(3)
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Dear Dr Ray
Please find attached paper.  I hope you will find it useful. 
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what is the role of Bay of Bengal low salinity water to monsoon rainfall?
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I am going to compare the Climate ( Temperature and Precipitation) of the two regions. I want to present my data through different models. I have data for the last thirty years.   
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Thank you Beckline Mukete...
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I have monthly monsoon (june-october) discharge data of a river.How should I fit a distribution to it as data of (oct-May) is absent?
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You could also look for data from Satellites such as TRMM (https://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) and use time series analysis to develop an statistical distribution and then compare your data with it.
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Apart from seasonal variation in Equatorial jet in Indian Ocean, I am looking forward to know its variabilities in past in terms of latitudinal position, strength and direction?
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I'm trying to check the ElNino effect affect to sea level rise around SriLanka.In addition to that I also try to find the correlation between temperature,rainfall with ElNino.My problem is can I use the existing indices like 3,3.4,4 or can  I prepare a local Nino inex.If can how I create a local Nino index.What data should I get.
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Hi Krishan,
using one or two different indices to make sure that the answers are the same will be a good idea.  Nino3.4 is standard and you might try Nino3 too. Also try looking at the difference between Central Pacific and East Pacific El Nino's as they may well have different effects in your region.
A key thing to note is that during El Nino, Sri Lanka is close to the boundary between the dry West Pacific/East Indian Ocean signal and the wet West Indian Ocean/E African signal. 
It looks to me like observations suggest that Sri Lanka is dry during El Nino. See for example MacLachlan et al 2015, Quart J Roy Met Soc. It's available here:
or from my ResearchGate page.
Best
Adam
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I am interested to know the standard sources (reports / websites / research articles) which can be refereed to know the precise years in which El Nino, La Nina, Positive IOD and Negative IOD impacted Indian Monsoon between 1970 to 2016.
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The BoM maintains a good record of IOD-positive/negative years (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/) which is good for an overview; though I prefer the more detailed analysis from JAMSTEC (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/HTML/Dipole%20Mode%20Index.html).
Again for ENSO, the BoM has a good overview (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/enlist/index.shtml, with links for La Nina therein), as does NOAA (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/); if you want something more detailed in terms of numbers, I would recommend the CPC (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml).
Hope these help. 
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Hello
I' m working on "Impact on Climate on Agricultural Productivity", Can anyone guide me that, Weekly data or monthly data of rainfall is more appropriate to find out impact of rainfall on crop productivity?
I'm waiting your valuable suggestions.
Thank You.
Regards
Sandip
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yes, weekly rainfall is more relevant
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I would like to see if anyone has studied the publication rate of climate change research in the biological sciences. I have found only one article by Pedersen et al. 2015 that shows the doubling of climate change research in the Nordic Region. I've also checked the IPCC 2014 report and found nothing. Thank you so much for you help.
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Dear Tina,
                You may not be so casual in this global warming effects and aspects. The entire world has awakened  since last 2 decades on the subject matter and you are finding nothing. Your contribution/rating for survival of this planet will be nil.Please be informed on latest developments on the subject matter. Earth is too large as compared to your place of living.
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It is a interesting topic. But how does human activity control the monsoon variability?
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Anthropogenic global warming, large-scale land use and cover change, and aerosols emissions from Asian industrial areas have been regarded as the major driving agents affecting summer monsoon changes. A lot of papers, especially the modeling works by using climate models, have been published in these fields, but most of the scientific questions still remain to be tackled.
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i want to correlate the winter climate dynamic with unseasonal rainfall like in the month of January, february and march having some rainfall which can affect the rabi crops.
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 Respected Svetoslav,
Thanks a lot for your valuable suggestion.
Regards with respect
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While browsing trough internet i found some thump rule,
Negative ENSO and Positive IOD : Excessive rainfall
Negative ENSO and neutral IOD : Above average rainfall
Negative ENSO and Negative IOD : Average rainfall
Neutral ENSO and Positive IOD: Above average rainfall
Neutral ENSO and Neutral IOD: Average rainfall
Neutral ENSO and Negative IOD : Below Average rainfall
Positive ENSO and Positive IOD : Average rainfall
Positive ENSO and Neutral IOD : Below Average rainfall
Positive ENSO and Negative IOD : Deficit rainfall
Is it true ? If so can i get some paper to substantiate it ?
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Dear Aswin Kokkat,
You can refer "A Look at the Relationship between the ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole " by Ashok et al. (2003), "Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO" by Ashok et al.(2001). 
Prof. Ashok Karumuri (University of Hyderabad), Roxy Mathew Koll (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) and Prof. Raghu Murtugudde (University of Maryland) have several contributions in this regard. You can read their papers for a better insight.
The very recent paper is "Teleconnections of ENSO and IOD to summer monsoon and rice production potential of India" by Jha et al.(2016).
Some recent papers are quite critical in this regard like, "Evolution of Indian Ocean dipole and its forcing mechanisms in the absence of ENSO" by  Wang et al. (2016); "Indian Ocean and Indian summer monsoon: relationships without ENSO in ocean–atmosphere coupled simulations" by Crétat et al. (2016); "Statistical Evidence for Asymmetry in ENSO–IOD Interactions" by Lestari and Koh (2016); "The weakening of the ENSO–Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) coupling strength in recent decades" by Ham et al. (2016).
I am providing links of some other relevant papers.
I hope this helps.
All the best!
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I am looking at satelitt pictures fro the year 1996 and for a good interpretation it would be necessary to get cimate data from the previous north east monsoon. Does anyone know an address where I could get some information about the precipitation of the month October to December of the year 1995? Thanks a lot
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Dear Kilian Mathan,
If you need only precipitation data (observed), you can get it from India meteorological department (IMD) or Water Resources Department of TamilNadu or from Central Water Commission, India... Basically, these 3 organisations are providing station-wise data for Chennai.. Out of which, IMD is considered to be more reliable...
I hope it helps.
All the best!
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Dear all
I am doing seasonal simulation of monsoon (~5 months) with climate model. As per my knowledge spin up time of a model is very important for the reliability of the model output for further study. I have found that there is very little literature regarding the spin up time for seasonal scale simulation. Everybody taken some amount of time (10days - 1 month) model simulation as spin up  and excluded that from their analysis without proper justification or figures regarding that. Some literature can be found for long term simulation but I didn't found no literature for seasonal scale simulation. How to see/figure out that? I want to justify what is the amount of time I need to take as spin up and why? Any kind of clue in this regard will be highly appreciated.
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Dear Suman,
The spin up time is the time the model takes for the input/ouput values of an annual to reach a steady state. However, if you are doing a seasonal model then it will not reach a steady state because it is part of an annual cycle which is continually changing throughout the seasonal cycle.
You will have to incorporate your model within an annual model and run the annul model for several years until it reaches a steady state. Running a seasonal model, March through June, will always give the same results for every run since input values for March will always be the same. The output values form June are not suitable as input values for March. For March you need the output values for February which you do not have.
HTH,
Cheers, Alastair.
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Need recent data (last 15 years) of temperature, monsoon precipitation and snow cover from Himalayan region. Any suggestion would be appreciated.
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For precipitation:
TRMM 3B42V7 and Bookhagen and Burbank (no snow! and high error with snow)
High Asia Reanalysis (HAR) 2001 to 2014 (TU Berlin Climate group) (with snow)
For temperature:
High Asia Reanalysis (HAR) 2001 to 2014 (TU Berlin Climate group)
proxy through MODIS MOD11 land surface temperatures (calibration with in situ needed and little or no vegetation cover)
Downscaling using climate model data such as ECMWF Era-Interim (apply lapse rates and a DEM)
Snow cover:
MODIS 
good luck
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monsoon pollen records, oxygen isotope ratio etc. 
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You may contact to Dr. Borgaonkar at IITM Pune or Prof. Ramesh from PRL ahmedabad.
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Has the atmospheric circulation change because of the uplift of the Himalaya and the tibet plateau?
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Dear Malte LuKowski,
The rise and uplifting of the mountain was not enough as main splitter for the monsoonal season became catastrophic as well as peculiar monsoon (episodic likely) without conceivable of main geological provenance such as i.e, the buoyant of crust and mantle fluctuation as beam piling up by mountain constructions. This might be others reason how the atmospheric breakdown began as asthenosphere was unstable and began uplifting too.
regard's
Zolhizir bin Daud
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It is said to be a successor of TRMM. I want to know about certain advantages and uncertainties of using GPM datasets for tracking monsoons and Cyclones.
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Dear Arun,
Global Precipitation Measurement or GPM is a program of several space agencies led by the US space agency NASA whose objective is to make periodic measurements of precipitation close to the level of the entire planet. This program is a continuation of the mission Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission with broader objectives. Several satellites must collect data whose consistency will be ensured by the GPM Core Observatory satellite developed by NASA with an important participation of the Japanese space agency JAXA. The data collected by the GPM satellite fleet should improve the daily weather forecasts, better prevention of natural disasters related to flooding or droughts, and for the long term, help improve modeling of change climate. GPM Core Observatory is a satellite of 3.2 tonnes which carries two instruments developed especially: a dual frequency radar and a radiometer.
GPM extends the scope of observations in low-intensity rainfall (up to 0.5 mm per hour) and the snow, which predominate at mid and high latitudes. This capability required the premise developing appropriate instruments.
The Global Precipitation Measurement program aims to measure precipitation globally and is implementing several satellites. It is based on the implementation of a central satellite (GPM Core Observatory) carrying a radiometer and radar to measure rainfall from space and serve as a reference to unify the measurements made by the other spacecraft attached in the program.
With my best regards
Prof. Bachir ACHOUR
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I am developing a phosphorus (P) budget for an agricultural watershed. Chemical fertilizers and organic matter ( compost and manure) are the main sources of P in my study site. In addition, the soil of the watershed is characterized as sandy loam. P sorption capacity of manured sandy loam soils is lower than that of chemical fertilized soils. Additionally, the mean P concentration is 0.041 and 0. 691 mg/l for dry and wet season (more than half of the annual precipitation is concentrated during summer monsoon season ( July-August)) respectively.
Is there any way to identify which part of P - Org. P or Inorg. P is mainly exported from the watershed ?
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The Phosphorus in the filtrate would be soluble inorganic P as ortho phosphate. The suspended particulate would be exported P which would either be organic Phosphate or Phosphate bound to clay or humic materials. When you talk about the export from compost and raw manure you may find much more loss from raw manure than cured aged compost. Intact soil core lysimeters would give good data on this if you have the time and investment to follow this over several years.
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I know SAR imagery is good one...but its resolution is very poor.
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Yes, I agree with  Waqas Qazi that SAR (Synt,hetic Aperture Radar) will be very effective for monitoring floods. SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) is an all weather imaging radar which can operate without sunlight. Here, the "all weather" means that it can operate through clouds and also at night. In the past, we have used RADARSAT images, successfully monitoring floods of Red River and they were very effective. RADARSAT is a C-band SAR system but TerraSAR-X  (X-band SAR, DLR) and ALOS (L-band SAR, JAXA) should be effective for monitoring floods.       
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Different modelling centres have given the historical runs for their GCMs, in this respect I am looking for some studies which seems to Identify the models able to simulate the Indian Summer Monsoon and its features in a more comprehensive and realistic manner.
Any update will be appreciated.
Thanks in anticipation.
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No one study can be comprehensively concluding that a particular CMIP5 model or a set of these models are realistic in simulating Indian summer monsoon. Because ISM is not a single entity and it has so many associated features so it depends on what you are looking at-  from the recent CMIP5 studies it can be concluded that a set of models can be good in representing mean state and hence interannual changes but if you go further into the values, the same set is not that good in representing the daily values and hence the intraseasonal variability. similarly for annual cycle or monsoon-enso teleconnection. try to understand one of the reasons behind this. a model simulation is in essence,  merely one combination out of of a large number of possible combinations of existing physical parameterisation schemes and this combination of schemes play together for simulation to happen. one scheme's success (for a particular process like convection and hence real mean state) lies in compensating other scheme's failure (for say cloud formation and hence daily value) for one combination/simulation/model. it's philosophical and mathematical more than physics. so by science it is never possible for design a perfect model or simulation or combination to exist. what is only possible is to (through use of high computational facility) to find a perfect combination of output or ensemble. try reading this. very good article/report in nature's scientific report journal on CMIP5
see figure 3a
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Hello:
I need a long time series of an Indian Monsoon Index. There is the all-india, but it ends in 1991.
I found the "Monsoon Monitoring Page", but it seems not to be updated to 2014 and so, I suspect it won't be updated to 2015 neither.
Any ideas?.
Thanks a lot in advance.
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some suggestions:
[Daily Monsoon Indices-2015]
Improved rainfall estimation over the Indian monsoon region by synergistic use of Kalpana-1 and rain gauge data
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
3-hr Realtime Rainfall Analyses
TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System (TOVAS)
Gairola, R. M., Prakash, S., & Pal, P. K. (2015). Improved rainfall estimation over the Indian monsoon region by synergistic use of Kalpana-1 and rain gauge data. Atmósfera, 28(1), 51-61.
Saludos
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The country name India (state Tripura). 23.80 N and 91.50 E respectively are the latitude and longitude of the model site. The monthly solar radiation of the model site varies from 2.85 to 6.22 kWh/m2/day, with an annual average of 4.7 kWh/m2/day. Also attached the figure of monthly solar radiation of the site.
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You might want to study the effects of cloud cover and rainfall in your location. Collecting daily/ monthly data will enable you compare the cloudy or rainy days effect on your output. You might want to consider temperature as well since dust might not be a major problem during monsoon. 
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Its alarming and so very important to know development of reverse wind trajectories over Indian Peninsula. Kindly look at the the jet set up from NE or E towards SW or W. The change further influence the clouds developed over Arabian sea to move further North. Deception of clouds is Observed. This suggest NW region could be drought prone!!
I upload images for July