Science topics: EconMacroeconomics
Science topic
Macroeconomics - Science topic
Macroeconomics is a branch of economics dealing with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of the whole economy. This includes a national, regional, or global economy.
Questions related to Macroeconomics
The crises the WCED 1987 found were social and environmental in nature. The environmental crisis came from the fact that we were living under full or almost full non-renewable energy based economies that produce free pollution, and we needed to move away from them towards a world of clean economies, where economic activity is run through full or almost full renewable energy sources.
A move beneficial to both, the economy and the environment, if green markets are set up in between the pollution based economy and the clean economy and use them as a smooth transition mechanism. However, since 2012 the world went the way of dwarf green markets a la environmental externality management.
Which raises the questions, Does the decision to go green market paradigm shift avoidance since 2012 blocked the smooth transition path from the pollution based economy to the clean economy available in 2012? If yes, why?
I think YES, what do you think?
Please share your own views if you have, not third party views.
When you look at discussions about human population, whether from the overpopulation point of view in particular or population dynamics view in general, they lead to policy actions and recommendations that appear to be independent of the traditional market structure structure(price, consumption, and production) that supports them, but the nature of markets seems to shape the nature of the population and population dynamics they encourage.
And this raises the relevant question once and for all:
Is the nature of human population dynamics dependent or independent of the nature of the traditional market structure dynamics that serves them?
I think that the nature of the population and its dynamics is dependent of the nature of the markets that serves them as they shape their nature, what do you think?
Are they independent? Yes or No, and why do you think so?
Are they dependent? Yes or No, and why do you think so?
What do you think?
How can rising inflation be effectively contained?
On the one hand, the various instruments of monetary policy , fiscal policy, ... that have previously been used to stop the rise of inflation are known. On the other hand, for some reason the various anti-inflationary measures applied in 2021 and 2022 are working to a very limited extent. Therefore, can the rise in inflation get out of hand? Could the rise in inflation, the increase in fuel and energy prices and the projected downturn in the economy lead to the emergence of an economic crisis in the following quarters? Could there be an economic recession and stagflation in 2023?
What do you think on this subject?
Please reply,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Greetings,
Dariusz
Any ideas? What do you think?
There is a new term in used today “Climate change economics”, and this seems to imply the existence of an environmentally friendly economic thinking, which raises the question is climate change economics green economics?
What do you think?
Please try to provide your own view on the answer to this question
This is an academic question posted in good faith to exchange ideas
data set is in regard of Macro economic, company and Industry porter analysis.
Is there anyone specialized in this field? I'd like to read something more about the relation between electronic money and economic growth.
All the contributions are welcome.
I am working on some macroeconomic forecasting on a 15-year data sample. I don't know which multivariate time series technique would be appropriate for the analysis since one variable is stationary at the second difference. Could someone please suggest which method would be better for my analysis, along with the supporting material?
Anyone here who is interested to do a project about the impact of macroeconomics variables on bank performance
effect of futures market on the stock market development and effect of both on macroeconomic indicators
Goal: Basically i wanted to see the causal pathway or casual relationship between the futures market, stock market and macroeconomic indicators. so please suggest the papers or some more objective regarding this research topic
Which countries use permanent income hypothesis for managing their oil wealth?
The goal of shifting from pollution based markets to clean markets is affected by going green markets and by going dwarf green markets in opposing ways.
The working of green markets moves away from pollution based markets and it tends towards clean markets while the working of dwarf green markets stays far away from clean markets and very close to pollution based markets.
Which raises the question, What are the clean market consequences of green market paradigm shift avoidance?
What do you think?
Please try to answer the question first, and then make any comments you think are appropriate.
And I will reply.
Hi,
I am trying to model the effect of consumers' preference for sustainably produced goods on aggregate employment.
I am trying to build an SFC model with two sectors, one sustainable and one non-sustainable.
Now I need references of papers that have done something similar, modeling the economy in two sectors using the SFC model.
Thanks in advance.
Those familiar with Kuhn’s ideas on the evolution of scientific thought know or should know that what is normal science today may not be normal science tomorrow as normal science tomorrow if resulting from paradigm shifts that address the abnormalities of old paradigms that lead it into crises would be inconsistent with normal science today…..
Kuhn’s loop on how science evolves is based on the idea of honest academic thinking and discourse that in the end leads to paradigm change and to the growth of scientific thought….
But what if the loop of the growth of knowledge is plagued by willful academic blindness and silence….an aspect that apparently escaped Kuhn’s imagination…..
Which leads to the question, What happens to the scientific revolution loop a la Thomas Kuhn under willful academic blindness? Any ideas!
Feel free to share your own ideas
For my research paper, Im trying to research the impact of 6 macroeconomic announcements on the volatility (VIX) and returns of the SP500? I'm thinkg of GARCH models. Is this a good model specification and what tests should I implement?
Think about it, science is supposed to be an open environment, one where if ideas are shown to be lacking or inappropriate or wrong, they are either improved or discarded. A system where if assumptions about reality turned out to be wrong, it will shift to catch up with the actual, now new reality leaving the previous reality/previous knowledge behind. That would be consistent with the thinking of Popper and Kuhn.
That was the expectation after the 1987 Brundtland commission said business as usual model has not worked as the assumptions on which it has been based were wrong, and that was the expectation after 2012 RIO + 20 when the UNCSD commission said to go green market, green growth and green economy was the shift to go….to internalize the wrong environmental externality assumption found in the business as usual model...
If that science expectation does not happen and invalid ideas and/or previous paradigm ideas are used to address the new reality, which by now everyone knows or should know is a reality not consistent with those previous ideas, is that still science or is this now an ideology?.
Which raises the question, at what point science, in general or economics in particular, becomes an ideology?
What do you think? Please express your view through answering this question.
Hi, This is Ravindra Nath Shukla, a Ph.D. scholar from ABV-IIITM Gwalior. I'm working on the firm's speed of adjustment toward the target leverage considering firm-specific variables along with the macroeconomic variable using system GMM (R-software).
I'm not able to regress macroeconomic variables, as they change over time but not across entities (such as GDP growth, inflation, and interest rate), ie. it accounts for individual heterogeneity.
I'm running the following code on R :
# System GMM
> system_gmm =pgmm(DR~lag(DR)+Age+Size+AST+GR+NDTS+LQ+ROA+CCF+GDP+INF+INT+SMD+CFIN+UEMP|lag(DR, 2:99),mydata, index= c("Company.Name","FY"), model="twostep", effect ="twoways",collapse = TRUE, transformation = "ld" )
and it returns the following error :
Error in solve.default(crossprod(WX, t.CP.WX.A1)) :
system is computationally singular: reciprocal condition number = 2.21118e-69
In addition: Warning message:
In pgmm(DR ~ lag(DR) + Age + Size + AST + GR + NDTS + LQ + ROA + : the first-step matrix is singular, a general inverse is used.
I have attached a CSV file of my panel data set, please have a look and guide me.
Thank you very much.
Regards
Ravindra Nath Shukla
ABV-IIITM Gwalior
ravindra@iiitm.ac.in
I am looking for a book on Market Structures that I could use as a reference for research in Macroeconomics. Any suggestions would be welcome. #macroeconomics #International #Trade
Good day scholars,
I'm working on the impact of some macroeconomics variables on stock prices. I have done the differences of all variables and they are all stationary at First difference and also test for the arch and Garch effect for the stock prices. I'm lost on how to do the cointegration test, I'm I supposed to do cointegration of the variables directly or the one I difference?
A significant increase in inflation as an important factor in the possibility of a possible new economic crisis?
What are the main sources of the increase in inflation in your country?
Can the rise in inflation in the coming months lead to specific economic problems for enterprises?
Is the increase in inflation in 2021 one of the major economic problems in your country, or is it a potential cause of these problems?
Are there symptoms of a much more serious problem, ie stagflation (high inflation and high unemployment, low economic growth)?
How can entrepreneurship be activated in a situation of stagflation following the economic crisis of 2020 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic and still relatively low interest rates?
In this discussion, please answer the above questions.
I invite you to discuss this issue.
What do you think about this topic?
What is your opinion on this issue?
Please reply,
I described a strong increase in inflation as a result of the applied interventionist state aid programs offered on a historically record scale to commercially operating economic entities in my article published at the end of December 2021. I am providing a link to this article:
I invite you to research cooperation in the field of developing new concepts for planning and implementing an effective strategy for the socio-economic development of the country, including shaping the anti-crisis and pro-development socio-economic policy in such a way as not to cause an increase in inflation, an increase in public debt and other negative effects of incorrectly conducted economic policy.
Thank you very much,
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
I need to test short and long run relationship of macro economic variables and stock market performance.
Dear colleagues,
I have a research hypothesis which is the last hypothesis of my research. I am investigating the Dutch Disease phenomenon and how it can lead to de-industrialization in the Azerbaijani economy. I have not started the de-industrialization part yet, but my supervisor commented that the hypothesis I have is problematic in its current form. His comment: This is a rather problematic hypothesis. For structural changes in the economy may have many reasons. How do you separate the impact of increasing oil revenues or any other component? The screenshot below provides my hypothesis. What do you think about this situation? How can I answer this comment?
Best
Ibrahim
We see at least two very dangerous features in post-covid China:
1) As we show in the attachments JEE 2020 and ICC 2020, Governments should be very carefull in trying to control prices or fix maximum/minimum thresholds. The price dynamics in complex economies condense a lot of scattered information, are an emergent property, and -under certain circumstances- aid at correcting disequilibria (see the papers attached). Becuase of cumulative wrong centralized decisions, disequilibria are multiplying in the Chinese economy (industrial, construction, energy sectors) and authorities are not allowing prices to show up as correcting re-adjustment signals. This is really dangerous as we show in papers ICC 2020 and JEvEcs 2020 attached (by Almudi et al.).
2) Secondly, as we show in Metroeconomica 2020 (also attached), in a context of increasing prices (shortages of energy and post-covid bottlenecks in global value chains), with high stocks of private debt, and everything developing within an otherwise innovative economy with low (but increasing) interest rates, the probable slight increase in inflation rates expected for the upcoming months will unchain a domino effect, with emergent "big rips" in the socio-economic Chinese system.
1) and 2) may announce a long (a decade) stagnation in the China economy. It seems that the European Union is perhaps the latest worldwide agent in noticing this. China is no longer a clear option. Still, Is China too big to fail?
Angrist s new paradigm to deal with experimental data is very efficient, i would like to verify is this could be the same for topics dealing with macroeconomic data
In many countries, a strong correlation was found between the change in the economic and financial situation of enterprises and the credit policy of banks.
The research shows that there is a dependency, correlation between the change in the rate of economic growth of the country, economic and financial situation of economic entities, citizens 'incomes, enterprises' investment, investment risk, liquidity risk, debt, creditworthiness, creditworthiness of enterprises, etc. and the changing the credit policy of commercial banks that provide corporate loans and consumer loans to citizens.
However, in recent years, especially before the emergence of the global financial crisis in 2008, it was possible to diagnose a reverse correlation, i.e. that banks, mainly investment banks in low interest rates activated the entire banking sector, including primarily retail commercial banking to provide subsequent mortgage loans even for borrowers no longer possessing creditworthiness. Credit rating agencies issued the highest AAA recommendations for the loan packages sold, most of which were of low quality and low creditworthiness. Insurance companies insured transactions of very high credit risk. Acting on behalf of banks, the media published articles suggesting a good prospect of economic development, a continuation of good economic conditions, including the real estate market, a further rise in property prices. Many financial institutions, media institutions and investment firms participating in this procedure commonly used unethical business practices.
In the light of the above, the following questions arise:
How should banking procedures be improved to prevent future use of such type of unethical business practices?
How should the processes of improving bank credit risk management be carried out in commercial banks, so that more such situations will not happen again, in order to avoid this type of another global financial crisis?
How strong can be the impact of the banks' lending policy on the situation in the construction sector?
In view of the above, is this impact not too strong in periods of high economic growth, ..., in periods of too high economic growth, overinvested investment projects financed mainly by loans and overvalued securities on stock exchanges?
Please reply
Best wishes
The economy of Singapore is highly developed. It has been ranked by World economic forum as the most open economy in the world.
In highly developed countries and economically fast developing countries there are analogous processes of changes in the demographic structure of society consisting in the aging of the population and the accompanying process of depopulation of cities, agglomeration, decreasing number of births, decreasing fertility rate in families. These processes, which are unfavorable for the economic development of the country, usually have at least several causes.
Extending the average life expectancy of citizens results from improved living standards, increased income and related improvements in quality of life, improvement of nutrition and improvement in the health care services sector. In addition, some of the lowly, educated people go to look for more interesting jobs and higher salaries by hiring in other countries. In a situation where young people paying off housing loans, are also burdened with various taxes, they are forced to work, to professional activity all adult members of the family of working age.
As a result, the pressure, the need to have more than 1 or 2 children are decreasing, and then the fertility decreases, which contributes to the decline in the number of citizens in the long term. In order to counteract this disadvantage for the national economy, this country should develop social policy to support young people, including subsidizing the purchase or rental of housing, establishing guaranteed income related to raising children, developing programs supporting the nursery, pre-school and education, pediatric health care system, etc.
Examples of such programs of active socio-economic policy are: Family 500 Plus Program and Flat Plus Program (Mieszkanie Plus Program). Because these programs have been developed only for 3 years, so you can not objectively assert how they affect the demographic structure of society, or motivate you to make decisions about having a larger number of children. In order to be able to answer this type of questions objectively, ie with regard to relevant scientific data, these Programs should be conducted with a minimum of 2-3 subsequent generations of citizens.
On the other hand, there has already been a noticeable increase in consumption for various types of goods purchased by citizens, which has a pro-development effect on the economy as it increases the level of economic growth. It may be one of the key elements of the socio-economic policy of anti-crisis, countercyclical importance, ie increasing the resilience of the domestic economy to global economic crises and the slowdown in global economy growth, e.g. the currently observed slowdown in global economy caused by the so-called war wars and other restrictions on the development of international trade.
In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:
How can changes in the demographic structure of society affect the economic development of the country?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
I am going to work on this however I can't understand which headings I cover. if anyone help me out of this to sort of some topics, it would be a great pleasure. And added that, is there any paper regard this, please let me know. I got some papers which are containing either economics or macro economics that was not absolute related what I am working.
Thank you.
We all know about the traditional perfect market of Adam Smith and its place at the heart of pure or perfect capitalism.
We usually associate perfect market thinking with no government intervention unless there is market failure, but the perfect market of Adam Smith, like any other possible perfect market, can better be defined in terms of equality and freedom so as to be able to link it for example to imperfect markets such as dictatorship based markets or link it to distorted markets from the democracy point of view, which leads to the question, what is the conjunctural necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of perfect markets for example a la Adam Smith?
Feel free to provide your views, and keep in mind the angle of this question is “equality and freedom”, not government intervention or supply and demand interactions, even though they are linked.
This is an academic question, not a political one, and as usual my questions usually have a simple answer.
According to the latest publications and news the majority of the experts argue that Coronavirus (COVID-19) slows down the economy, the consumption falls, and most of the industries face a recession.
Many studies cover the positive relationship between women's education and participation with GDP growth. however, very few studies covered the effects of women's participation on wages, and these few studies are usually very general and do not cover specific sectors.
Beginning with Keynes General theory , Phillips curve interpretation of policy trade-off to New Classical and to New Keynesian school of thought, the subject Macroeconomics travel a long path. From adhoc macroeconomics model to representative household in general equilibrium framework , methodologically the subject evolved tremendously. It will be great to find books or articles which capture the journey from the perspective of thought.
Hello,
We have difficulty establishing cointegration using the Johansen methodology for a set of macroeconomic variables of a developed country. Similar difficulty appears with the estimation of the ARDL model despite the fact that we have the option to choose variables from a larger set ,that meet the required dynamic stability properties. The left-hand variable is real GDP or its log.
Will it make sense to employ nominal variables?
The next step is to consider nonlinear models. Can you help.
Thank you.
George K Zestos
Could anyone suggest a package that implements the Lumsdaine and Pampell (1997) unit root test in R?
Analyzing the evolution of the FED balance, an expansion of its balance is observed in 2,200 trillion USD (+58% in a month and a half), being together with the reduction of the interest rate the two main monetary measures to "rescue the US economy" of the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. I believe that the first consequence of this massive monetary injection in the markets has been a recovery in the stock markets, which have already exceeded 30% since March lows, and a relaxation of the returns on corporate fixed income.
But what real effects are these measures going to have on the real economy? Will this monetary policy contribute to economic growth, will they create inflation? Or are they only intended to reassure financial markets? I appreciate your contributions. Thank you.
A population decline (or depopulation) in humans is a reduction in a human population caused by events such as long-term demographic trends, as in sub-replacement fertility, urban decay due to violence, disease, or other catastrophes. According to a controversial theory: shrink and prosper, the accompanying benefits of depopulation could be identified after the post-Civil War Gilded Age, post-World War I economic boom, and the post-World War II economic boom.
Is there any underpinning theory, that can explain a framework testing the effect of bank-specific, industry-specific, and macroeconomic factors on banks profitability?
Hello everyone. I am using the VECM model and I want to use variance decomposition, but as you know variance decomposition is very sensitive to the ordering of the variable. I read in some papers that it will be better to use generalized variance decomposition because it is invariant to the ordering of the variables. I am using Stata, R or Eviews and the problem is how to perform Generalised VD and please if anyone knows help me
I am currently studying the non-performing loans.The independent variables are Lending rate, GDP and Unemployment (these are the macroeconomic determinants of NPL). Dependent variable of the study is the Non-performing loans. MY QUESTION IS DO I HAVE TO USE CONTROL VARIABLES? If yes, why?
-Thank you in advance 😊
Apparently, on the financial markets and in macroeconomic determinants of the economic situation in particular sectors and entire economies of developed countries, there are symptoms that suggest a high probability of economic slowdown from 2020 in individual countries and, consequently, in the entire global economy.
Therefore, I am asking you: Do you know the forecasts of the global economic development that would suggest a high probability of deceleration (or possibly acceleration) of economic growth from 2020 in individual countries and, consequently, in the entire global economy?
What are the symptoms of potential changes in the financial markets and / or the scope of macroeconomic determinants of the economic situation in particular sectors and entire economies?
If you know the results of prognostic research in this area, please send links to websites or scientific publications in which this type of prognostic issues are taken.
I wish you the best in New Year 2019.
Best wishes
i need dataset with world's or country's macroeconomic indicators and/or global indexes yearly for build some machine learning predictive model, who can help? Thanks a lot
Dear colleagues,
in my classes about global health issues I often use Gapminder tools to visualize macroregional differences. On our last seminar, we talked about two key indicators - life expectancy and income, and how that can be linked together. In Gapminder, countries are devided also according to WB to so called Income groups. I discussed with students, that there are still differences within one income group still, and one example we showed , is a more than 20 years gap difference in life expectancy between countries of Nicaragua and Papua New Guinea. They both belong to Income group No.2, have almost identical GDP/capita income, and still a huge difference in their life expectancy indicator (sse the picture). Does anybody here can share some insights, why it is so? Is there such a difference in health care system of those countries with very similar macroeconomic indicator? I will appreciate any idea realated to that. Thank you!
It has been said that the IS-LM has limitations that makes it difficult to relate to reality.
I was using the VAR model and to see the impulse response function I used Cholesky decomposition. data is quarterly from 2003q1 to 2019q2. The first variable is oil price as a supply shock, second output gap by applying Hodrick-Prescott filter, third for the monetary policy-money base, fourth nominal effective exchange rate, and fifth cpi. After the first difference, they are stationary. response of CPI to nominal effective exchange rate shock was negative, which means that there is deflation, but at the same time base money has a positive response to neer shock, which means that the national bank uses expansionary policy. and if there is deflation why use national bank expansionary policy?
some people from this site advised me to use the structural VAR model instead of the ordinary VAR model. unfortunately, I do not have experience working with it and I have a problem constructing the model correctly. can anyone help how to construct a correct matrix? my baseline= (oil, output gap, money base, Neer, CPI)
(a 0 0 0 0)
(a a 0 0 0)
(a a a 0 0 )
(0 a a a 0)
(0 a 0 a a)
I should do something like this, but I don't know if it is correct, so please help me to order variables correctly.
I am searching for good (Principles) Macroeconomics online and free courses for undergraduates students (economics). I already found a pretty didactically and deep (Principles) Microeconomics course provided by MIT university.
However I was not successful in find Macroeconomics courses. May someone indicated online courses?
Thanks in advance.
Hi, I wish to use a macroeconomic model to analyze the environmental and social-economic effects of biofuel quotas in two countries. For environmental assessment, I am considering the carbon footprint and biodiversity losses. And for the latter, I want to look into income inequality.
In your opinion, what are the advantages and disadvantages of using E3ME and environmentally extended input-output method to do this task? Or do you recommend other models for this task?
Thank you in advance.
In 2012 we moved from traditional market thinking to green market thinking, but we are still trying to address the environmental crisis from outside green market thinking. What about for example, perfect green market competition?....Has anybody thought about it?. I have.
The current technological revolution, known as Industry 4.0, is determined by the development of the following technologies of advanced information processing: Big Data database technologies, cloud computing, machine learning, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, Business Intelligence and other advanced data mining technologies.
In connection with the above, I would like to ask you:
Is the process of conducting economic analyzes improved thanks to the development of information technology Industry 4.0?
For example, whether through the use of information technologies in analytical processes such as database technologies for collecting and processing, analyzing large data sets in Big Data database systems, in cloud computing, using the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, economic analyzes carried out on computerized platforms Business Intelligence - it is possible to effectively analyze much larger amounts of economic data concerning individual companies, their contractors and the economic, market and macroeconomic environment than before, ie a few years ago when these technologies were not used while carrying out economic, fundamental and financial, indicative analyzes e.t.c.?
Please reply
Best wishes
I'm doing a research on macroeconomics of Hong Kong, but i can't search quarterly real interest rate data
Just as food for thoughts, what type of macroeconomy the integrating of innovation and climate with economic growth leads to?.: To the same traditional macroeconomy or to a dwarf traditional macroeconomy or to a green macroeconomy or to a dwarf green macroecomy. What do you think?
Has the scale and instances of dissonance increased since the 1970s, and the disparity between the macroeconomic situation and the economic situation of a particular national or global economy, including economic growth, etc., and the situation on capital markets, including securities markets?
The above discussion inspired me to the following considerations: Well, since the development of the deregulation process, the increase in the globalization of financial markets, the introduction to the financial markets of many derivatives without full supervision by financial supervision institutions, i.e. since the 1970s the frequency has increased and the scale of emerging financial and economic crises in various parts of the world. At the same time, perhaps the business cycles are increasingly influenced by the monetary policy of central banks and fiscal policies of governments mainly of the world's largest economies. The result may be a growing discrepancy, a growing disproportion between the macroeconomic situation and the situation of a particular national economy or global economy, including economic growth, etc., and the situation on capital markets, including securities markets.
What do you think about this topic?
What is your opinion on this topic?
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:
Has the scale and instances of dissonance increased since the 1970s, and the disparity between the macroeconomic situation and the economic situation of a particular national or global economy, including economic growth, etc., and the situation on capital markets, including securities markets?
Please reply
I invite you to discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
Dear altruist,
I am conducting research related to financial innovation. So, I decided to use broad-to-narrow money (M2/M1) as a proxy for financial innovation. Although the broad money data is available on the World Bank website, I was unable to come across any website that offers the narrow money data of all the countries for free. I have seen a website like Trading Economics that has the data related to M1 and M2 money supply, but they are on a pay per basis. As I am still an undergraduate student, I cannot afford to buy this data. It would be really helpful if anyone could suggest, where can I get Narrow Money (M1) or broad-to-narrow money (M2/M1) data of all the countries for free?
It is worth mentioning that the OECD database has narrow money data for all the OECD countries, but they do not have broad money data. One can ask why am I not using broad money data from the World Bank’s website (WB). Well, that is because OECD’s narrow money (M1) data and the WB’s broad money data is using two different types of variable. I cannot figure out how they will work together. So, if you can also provide any suggestions related to this, it will help too.
Thank you.
Usually we use the two terms interchangeably in our articles but whether is there any technical difference between them?
I'm writing a thesis about the macroeconomic issues to face during a water crisis
I am very keen to join the Post Doctoral Fellowship programme in economics. My area of specialisation is macroeconomics, food inflation, development and volatility modelling. I am looking for this position in Asian and Australian continent.
Dear all,
Could you recommend macroeconomic studies (hopefully published in good journals) that use system GMM or Arellano-Bond estimators?
Thanks a lot!
In recent times, there have been many topics on how artificial intelligence can be used in finance: automatic financial advice, new tools, more accurate prediction, automatic trading, data management, poverty alleviation, new ethical dilemmas.
It is rather like trying to describe a tiger skin carpet by providing details about each hair! Even with a computer which can absorb all of the data about the individuals of our society, the output is likely to be so long and confusing that we will be unable to follow it and find out how it works. So what do micro-economics and macro-economics share in terms of specific data?
I have seen a couple of research articles on the effect of the novel covid 19 on macroeconomic variables. I would like to throw an open question that is it econometric ally ideal to map a discrete count variable ( covid 19 cases) on macroeconomic variables such as inflation, GDP, exchange rate etc which are continuous random variable..or perhaps is there are method that supports this.. Knowing fully well that computer programs doesn't recognize the covid number of cases as count unless when specified.
I have a couple of questions regarding divine coincidence.
1) As Blanchard and Gali (2006) stated NKPC illustrates that stabilising inflation (make inflation constant) achieves output gap = 0. If you do the simple calculation if π = E( π ) then the output will not equal to the natural level of output?- or does he implicitly assumes that stabilising inflation means that π = E( π ) = 0?
2) Followed by their literature, divine coincident happens whenever there is a constant gap between the natural level of output and efficient level of output.
And I don't quite understand how the stabilising the output gap (setting output - natural level) is equivalent to stabilising the welfare-relevant output gap ??? (output - the efficient level of output)
- since there exists a gap between natural level and efficient level of output, shouldn't it be the case that setting output greater than natural level (=nd hence closer to efficient level ) better policy?
Could you know what are Historical diseases / pandemics in the past reflected on Global economy and Financial markets in the past?
like Spanish influenza that spread in 1918 and reached peak in 1920 impacted on the global economy?
There were another pandemics in the past had significant impact on the global economy and/or financial markets ?
There were many and many pandemics (e.g., Ebola, SARS 2003, H1N1, .... etc)
So, which one or more of them have significant impact on Economy / financial market even globally or in specific countries (i.e., SARS 2003 impacted on China's Economy)
Kindly, Let's share and discuss
Thanks in advance
Ahmed
Trade wars can lead to a decline in revenues in the state budget if the country developed exports and obtained high income from the state budget. In this situation, trade wars can lead to a public finance crisis if the state budget has a high budget deficit and public finances are burdened with high public debt. In this situation there is a systemic risk of increasing indebtedness and loss of liquidity in the state finances. This type of situation can lead to an economic crisis.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:
In what situations can trade wars lead some of the smaller national economies to an economic crisis?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
Imaging there are pareto optimality trends driven by externality cost generated pareto improvement dynamics in all possible markets.
Then pareto optimality will shift to the right until there is no more cost to externalize in each market, and the market among them with the lowest market price possible will be then the pareto optimal bundle furthest to the right as there will be here the highest level of production and consumption possible among all markets.
If these are the pareto optimality trends driven by increasing cost externalization, then this raises the question Is sustainability negatively related to pareto optimality trends? I think yes, what do you think? …
I am interested in your own views only in order to share ideas directly.
Our data is yearly time series on macroeconomic variables. Observations = 20 years. Dependent variable is GDP growth. Independent variables are governement terms (dummies) Consumptions, net trade, FDI, F. reserve, population growth, and agri. prod. The main objective is to examine the impact of government terms on economic development.
Think for a moment, shifting from traditional market thinking to green market thinking in 2012 Rio +20 meant a shift from pareto optimality thinking to green pareto optimality thinking, yet to my knowledge nothing is written about this. Green pareto optimality thinking is at the heart of perfect green markets.
And this raises the question, what is the structure of green pareto optimality then? What do you think? I am interested in exchanging ideas on how to address this question and exchange thoughts.
Hi,
I am conducting research related to financial innovation. So, I decided to use broad-to-narrow money (M2/M1) as a proxy for financial innovation. Although the M2 money (broad money) data is available on the World Bank website, I was unable to come across any website that offers the M1 money (narrow money data) of all the countries for free. I have seen a website like Trading Economics that has the data related to M1 and M2 money supply, but they are on a pay per basis. As I am still an undergraduate student, I cannot afford to buy this data. It would be really helpful if anyone could suggest, where can I get Narrow Money (M1) or broad-to-narrow money (M2/M1) data of all the countries for free?
It is worth mentioning that the OECD database has narrow money data for all the OECD countries, but they do not have broad money data. One can ask why am I not using broad money data from the World Bank’s website (WB). Well, that is because OECD’s narrow money (M1) data and the WB’s broad money data is using two different types of variable. I cannot figure out how they will work together. So, if you can also provide any suggestions related to this, it will help too.
Thank you.
Here is the case, as I said, I am working on how Macroeconomic variables affect REIT Index Return. To understand how macroeconomic variables affect REIT which tests or estimation method should I use.
I know I can use OLS but is there any other method to use? All my time series are stationary at I(0).
Here is the case, as I said, I am working on relationship between REIT Index Return and Macroeconomic variables. To understand how macroeconomic variables affect REIT, I designed a game plan by reading literature however I am not sure because, I don't have that much knowledge on econometrics.
Here is the game plan.
I already did an ADF test for stationarity of my time series and all the variables are stationary so now I am planning to do granger casuality test. Its for my dissertation so I wanted to add one more analysis so I thought about using VAR model in order to regress it but I am not sure whether its necessary or not. Some people did that in the literature. I have 5 independent variables btw.
I do not see other way out of this inmense crisis within the European Union. Neither MEDE, nor Eurobonds. From an overlapping generations perspective, with children and young people (who have probability quasi-zero of being infected) being forced to stop their lives and careers, we mid-age and mature people are the ones who must bear the cost of the COVID-crisis. And this means inflation (never debt). Therefore, direct monetization of aid for the shock and partial debt relief. And then, a re-europeization of the investment flows (yes, protectionism) with a strong industrial policy direction in mind.
I am conscious of the asymetric international effects of the shock within the european partners. But, either we together, and in the current generation, bear the whole cost in the form of inflation, or our legacy for future generations (within an already highly leveraged framework) is conmdemned to a Euro-collapse in 15 years. What do you think?
Hi all,
My paper is looking at the most significant determinants of u.k. economic growth. I will look at macroeconomic , technological, human capital, socio-geographical and governance variables against the dependent variable of GDP growth. Anyone who has done research into growth-theories could suggest suitable statistical models which can be used on stata? I am looking at Baynesian Model Averaging currently but not sure that is the best model out there