Science topics: EconMacroeconomics
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Macroeconomics - Science topic

Macroeconomics is a branch of economics dealing with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of the whole economy. This includes a national, regional, or global economy.
Questions related to Macroeconomics
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The crises the WCED 1987 found were social and environmental in nature. The environmental crisis came from the fact that we were living under full or almost full non-renewable energy based economies that produce free pollution, and we needed to move away from them towards a world of clean economies, where economic activity is run through full or almost full renewable energy sources.
A move beneficial to both, the economy and the environment, if green markets are set up in between the pollution based economy and the clean economy and use them as a smooth transition mechanism. However, since 2012 the world went the way of dwarf green markets a la environmental externality management.
Which raises the questions, Does the decision to go green market paradigm shift avoidance since 2012 blocked the smooth transition path from the pollution based economy to the clean economy available in 2012? If yes, why?
I think YES, what do you think?
Please share your own views if you have, not third party views.
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Dear Lucio,
As you have more than once suggested to me that you prefer short answers, so this time I will answer briefly without arguing my reply at length. Well, in my view, if we are looking at the issue globally rather than regionally then, at least from the original premise, the decision to go green in 2012 and other similar such developments are unlikely to block the path of transition from a brown, unsustainable, combustion-based pollution economy to a clean, sustainable, green closed loop economy. However, problems arise when closely synonymous new concepts e.g. in the field of green, sustainable economy are defined and interpreted differently by different interest groups, by different stakeholders. In addition, these different interpretations are usually deliberate as a result of lobbying by certain interest groups operating in the business and/or political spheres, who are not interested in carrying out a pro-environmental transformation of the economy and developing a clean, sustainable, green circular economy.
Greetings,
Dariusz
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When you look at discussions about human population, whether from the overpopulation point of view in particular or population dynamics view in general, they lead to policy actions and recommendations that appear to be independent of the traditional market structure structure(price, consumption, and production) that supports them, but the nature of markets seems to shape the nature of the population and population dynamics they encourage.
And this raises the relevant question once and for all:
Is the nature of human population dynamics dependent or independent of the nature of the traditional market structure dynamics that serves them?
I think that the nature of the population and its dynamics is dependent of the nature of the markets that serves them as they shape their nature, what do you think?
Are they independent? Yes or No, and why do you think so?
Are they dependent? Yes or No, and why do you think so?
What do you think?
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Dear Lucio,
I too believe that what you have described as the nature of human population dynamics is dependent on the nature of the dynamics of the traditional market structure that serves them. Well, in the short term (months and quarters) it is citizens who adjust their functioning to seasonal changes in the level of production, income, purchases made etc. In the medium term (several to sometimes a dozen years), changes in the rate of economic growth that take place as part of business cycles translate into changes in citizens' income and consumption levels, and this then influences citizens' decisions to start a family and have children. On the other hand, in the longer term (from several years to several decades), the long-term economic processes, the changing sectoral and industry structure of the economy, the significantly changing level of economic development, production, income, etc., translate into significant changes in the living standards of citizens and the prevailing purchasing, housing and living standards. Subsequently, these significant changes in the economic processes taking place, in economic development, including the public products and services offered by the state (education, health care, public utilities, social assistance) and consequently also in the living standards of citizens largely determine the fertility rate, housing standards, the product and service structure of purchases made, the length of the average life expectancy of citizens, possibly also the process of population ageing and other changes in the social structure. Consequently, there are correlations between economic development and structural changes realised in the medium and long term in markets and economic sectors and changes in citizens' living standards, changes in consumption standards, living conditions, economic decisions made, fertility levels, citizens' life expectancy, social processes, etc.
Regards,
Dariusz
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How can rising inflation be effectively contained?
On the one hand, the various instruments of monetary policy , fiscal policy, ... that have previously been used to stop the rise of inflation are known. On the other hand, for some reason the various anti-inflationary measures applied in 2021 and 2022 are working to a very limited extent. Therefore, can the rise in inflation get out of hand? Could the rise in inflation, the increase in fuel and energy prices and the projected downturn in the economy lead to the emergence of an economic crisis in the following quarters? Could there be an economic recession and stagflation in 2023?
What do you think on this subject?
Please reply,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Greetings,
Dariusz
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Any ideas? What do you think?
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Dear Lucio,
In my opinion, the economics of climate change and the economics of a perfect green market are reconcilable, but only in theory. I have described this in my articles. Unfortunately, from theory to reality is a very big gap in this field. For the time being, the process of carrying out a full pro-environmental transformation of the classic growth, brown, linear economy of excess to a sustainable, green, zero-carbon zero-growth and closed loop economy to create a zero-carbon economy, to halt the progressive process of global warming, to halt the over-consumption of natural resources, to halt the increase in environmental pollution is not possible with the current political, economic, financial, social, etc. realities. Therefore, in reality, the economics of climate change and the economics of a perfect green market are incompatible, despite the fact that it has been theoretically described how this can be achieved.
Thank you very much,
Best regards,
Dariusz
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There is a new term in used today “Climate change economics”, and this seems to imply the existence of an environmentally friendly economic thinking, which raises the question is climate change economics green economics?
What do you think?
Please try to provide your own view on the answer to this question
This is an academic question posted in good faith to exchange ideas
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Dear
In my opinion, the economics of climate change is an attempt to present projections of potential future transformations and modifications of economic, socio-economic and financial processes that are likely to take place in the future in connection with the projections of climate change, including, above all, the progressive process of global warming and the various effects generated by these climate changes, most of them negative for nature and humans. To answer your question above: is the economics of climate change ecological economics? - I state that as the concept is new and developing in meaning it is difficult to conclusively determine whether the economics of climate change is an ecological economics. The economics of climate change is an attempt to describe economic processes and to estimate the amounts of financial resources, including additional costs, which will be generated in the future to reduce the scale of the negative social and economic effects of the progressive process of global warming. Estimating such cost amounts for a perspective of a few decades and with an unknown scale of the acceleration of the global warming process is therefore not precise and is subject to a certain level of estimation error. However, attempts are being made to estimate the additional costs that humanity will incur in order to limit, for example, the scale of the decline in food production, the decline in the production of agricultural crops due to the increasing scale of increasingly frequent and persistent periods of drought and the outbreak of forest and agricultural fires. Estimates are also being made of the costs that will have to be incurred in the future in order, for example, to effectively carry out a full pro-environmental transformation of the energy sector in a relatively short period of time in order to significantly reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. This attempts to present the necessary adaptation processes that will have to be carried out in the future in order to adapt civilisation to global warming in economic and financial terms. In addition to this, the high level of variation in the aforementioned estimates of the amounts of costs that humanity will be forced to bear is also due to the adoption of different priorities for the projected adaptation processes, since, on the one hand, the aim of these adaptation processes may be to reduce the negative effects of inevitable climate change or, on the other hand, the key objective of the aforementioned processes of pro-environmental transformation of the economy may be to try to halt the progressive process of global warming and thus avoid the very negative scenario of a global climate catastrophe that may already occur at the end of the current 21st century. However, this latter objective may be difficult to achieve if the pace of implementation of the pro-environmental transformation of the economy is also as slow in the future as it has been so far. If, however, this were the main objective for estimating the aforementioned additional costs that humanity will be forced to bear, estimating the level of decline in economic development, estimating the additional social, health costs caused by climate change, estimating the costs of e.g. irrigation of agricultural fields in a situation of permanently occurring periods of drought, etc., then, in such a situation, the economics of climate change may acquire the attributes of ecological economics or pro-ecological, pro-environmental economics in the future. In a situation where plans are being built to smoothly carry out a pro-environmental transformation of the classic growth, brown, linear economy of excess to a sustainable, green, zero-carbon, zero-growth and circular economy in order to halt global warming and avoid a negative scenario of a global climate catastrophe, a climate change economy subordinated to these goals may acquire the attributes of pro-environmentalism and sustainability. This will then result in the possibility of such economics being recognised as pro-environmental, pro-environmental, green or ecological economics. The above is the result of my thoughts on this issue and the results of my research on the subject.
Best regards,
Dariusz
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data set is in regard of Macro economic, company and Industry porter analysis.
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Probably yes. There is a lot of literature on the topic. I am not an expert on the topic. Google search for the literature.
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Is there anyone specialized in this field? I'd like to read something more about the relation between electronic money and economic growth.
All the contributions are welcome.
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Advantages of Electronic Money
Increased flexibility and convenience. The use of electronic money brings increased flexibility and convenience to the table.
Historical record.
Prevents fraudulent activities.
Instantaneous.
Increased security.
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I am working on some macroeconomic forecasting on a 15-year data sample. I don't know which multivariate time series technique would be appropriate for the analysis since one variable is stationary at the second difference. Could someone please suggest which method would be better for my analysis, along with the supporting material?
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I recommend you NOT to convert quarterly to monthly data. You will have more observations but the increase of precision will be illusory. You say to have an I(2) variable but you don't say anything about the other variables. For example, if all of them are I(0), I don't think that cointegration will help. You should say more about your problem if you want appropriate suggestions.
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Anyone here who is interested to do a project about the impact of macroeconomics variables on bank performance
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It's an interesting research area, and I've already prepared a master's thesis on banks. It's an honor to cooperate with you.
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effect of futures market on the stock market development and effect of both on macroeconomic indicators
Goal: Basically i wanted to see the causal pathway or casual relationship between the futures market, stock market and macroeconomic indicators. so please suggest the papers or some more objective regarding this research topic
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Under the background of the big economy, these two markets have a mutual linkage. Commodity futures prices reflect the future price of goods, the price trend is actually reflected in people's expectations, and the futures price is due to expectations, so we can find the future price of the spot.
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Which countries use permanent income hypothesis for managing their oil wealth?
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The goal of shifting from pollution based markets to clean markets is affected by going green markets and by going dwarf green markets in opposing ways.
The working of green markets moves away from pollution based markets and it tends towards clean markets while the working of dwarf green markets stays far away from clean markets and very close to pollution based markets.
Which raises the question, What are the clean market consequences of green market paradigm shift avoidance?
What do you think?
Please try to answer the question first, and then make any comments you think are appropriate.
And I will reply.
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Dear Lucio,
Answering your question, I say that in my opinion the scale of avoiding the green market paradigm by companies and enterprises is still very large in the country where I operate. Many commercially operating companies and enterprises, if they are not forced by legal norms or if their clients still have a low level of pro-environmental transformation, still ignore the paradigms of the green market, they ignore the principles of ecological social responsibility, the principles of business ethics, green economy, sustainable development goals. On the other hand, some companies, corporations, banks and other financial institutions promote themselves in advertising spots as green and meeting specific goals of sustainable development. This is not always true. Usually, the scale of the transformation of business from classic to green is small and in advertising campaigns certain economic entities present themselves as fully green and implement on a large scale the goals of sustainable development. However, a more serious problem is that this type of misleading customers, citizens, this type of unreliable advertising campaigns and brand promotion campaigns as well as product and / or service offers are also used by government-controlled state-owned companies and some public institutions. The negative effect of such situations is misleading customers and citizens who, when buying products and / or services of a specific company, bank, enterprise, etc., assume that they are buying a green offer from an entity that pursues sustainable development goals and runs a green business, which often does not. is truthful. In addition, companies and enterprises use non-returnable financial subsidies for the implementation of pro-environmental economic ventures, for the creation and implementation of new eco-innovations, new green technologies, etc. However, there is no system of precise determination of what is green innovation and new green technology and what is not. Often, these subsidies are granted to companies and enterprises that fictitiously implement green economic ventures or the scale of pro-environmental business is negligible. On the other hand, there is a lack of financial resources for carrying out a systemic pro-environmental transformation of the economy, for the construction of new power plants generating electricity and / or heat from renewable and emission-free energy sources, for the development of electromobility, for the development of sustainable ecological agriculture, for afforestation of civilization degraded areas, for technology improvement. recycling and creating biodegradable substitutes for plastics, etc.
Best regards,
Dariusz
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Hi,
I am trying to model the effect of consumers' preference for sustainably produced goods on aggregate employment.
I am trying to build an SFC model with two sectors, one sustainable and one non-sustainable.
Now I need references of papers that have done something similar, modeling the economy in two sectors using the SFC model.
Thanks in advance.
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To whom it may concern,
Giraud and Grasselli have a paper that divides the household sector into two (workers and investors).
Kim and Lavoie have a paper that divides the productive sector into two (firms that produce capital goods and firms that produce consumer goods). This one is present in Silvia María Franco Anaya 's work with a good rating.
TianXi Cao has a paper that divides the productive sector (production of luxury goods and production of basic goods) and the household sector (workers in the luxury goods sector and workers in the basic goods sector). The author also makes an interesting discussion of dividing the economy into two sectors.
My main interest is in papers that divide the productive sector in two.
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Those familiar with Kuhn’s ideas on the evolution of scientific thought know or should know that what is normal science today may not be normal science tomorrow as normal science tomorrow if resulting from paradigm shifts that address the abnormalities of old paradigms that lead it into crises would be inconsistent with normal science today…..
Kuhn’s loop on how science evolves is based on the idea of honest academic thinking and discourse that in the end leads to paradigm change and to the growth of scientific thought….
But what if the loop of the growth of knowledge is plagued by willful academic blindness and silence….an aspect that apparently escaped Kuhn’s imagination…..
Which leads to the question, What happens to the scientific revolution loop a la Thomas Kuhn under willful academic blindness? Any ideas!
Feel free to share your own ideas
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Lucio Muñoz : Thanks for your kind response to my comment. I must tell you that I am a decades-long, severe and antagonistic critic of modern official theoretical physics and cosmology; both in and out of RG. One of my forums in RG on Einstein’s theories of relativity was closed down by an exceptional ruling of the RG management after it ran for a year and a half and attracted many physicists from around the world. I can see that someone totally unknown to me, made a collage of my comments in that forum and posted it online at the following link:
But I understand that your question in this forum is not directed to persons like me (which is rather an exception), but of course, is very relevant in the face of the present crisis of credibility of modern scientific theories and the existing paradigm. I definitely welcome your efforts in this forum.
I must also say that I do not doubt the intellectual honesty of Kuhn; but in my opinion it was a naïve exercise; because it did not consider the harsh realities of society of conflicting interest groups as I discussed in my comment above. But Karl Popper in my opinion, was definitely an opportunist and trickster – a turncoat “Marxists”, used and promoted by British imperial authority on the one hand to bestow “scientific” benediction on the esoteric theories of relativity by Albert Einstein, making those Kosher (because such theories cannot be falsified and by default are established as objective truth!). On the other hand, used as a “determinist” in the polemic on quantum uncertainty and in the ideological conflict and geopolitical rivalry of the time.
Best regards.
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For my research paper, Im trying to research the impact of 6 macroeconomic announcements on the volatility (VIX) and returns of the SP500? I'm thinkg of GARCH models. Is this a good model specification and what tests should I implement?
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you welcome
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Think about it, science is supposed to be an open environment, one where if ideas are shown to be lacking or inappropriate or wrong, they are either improved or discarded. A system where if assumptions about reality turned out to be wrong, it will shift to catch up with the actual, now new reality leaving the previous reality/previous knowledge behind. That would be consistent with the thinking of Popper and Kuhn.
That was the expectation after the 1987 Brundtland commission said business as usual model has not worked as the assumptions on which it has been based were wrong, and that was the expectation after 2012 RIO + 20 when the UNCSD commission said to go green market, green growth and green economy was the shift to go….to internalize the wrong environmental externality assumption found in the business as usual model...
If that science expectation does not happen and invalid ideas and/or previous paradigm ideas are used to address the new reality, which by now everyone knows or should know is a reality not consistent with those previous ideas, is that still science or is this now an ideology?.
Which raises the question, at what point science, in general or economics in particular, becomes an ideology?
What do you think? Please express your view through answering this question.
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Dear Lucio Muñoz , let me bring in my simple point that economics is still not a science, but a profession, based on certain accounts and accounting methods of society. Even medicine is not a science, but more a science-based practice of empirical evidences via testing procedures. With respect to natural and exact science, I need to mention that the basic assumptions of biological evolution, physical thermodynamics and mathematical information theory are contradictory.
The ideological trap for scientific research and researchers is based on the financial decision: which research and researcher gets funded? Most scientific research is funded by government grants , companies doing research and development, and non-profit foundations; in a perfect world, money wouldn't matter — all scientific studies (regardless of funding source) would be completely objective.
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Great moments in science: Einstein discovers that time is actually money.
Gary Larson
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Hi, This is Ravindra Nath Shukla, a Ph.D. scholar from ABV-IIITM Gwalior. I'm working on the firm's speed of adjustment toward the target leverage considering firm-specific variables along with the macroeconomic variable using system GMM (R-software).
I'm not able to regress macroeconomic variables, as they change over time but not across entities (such as GDP growth, inflation, and interest rate), ie. it accounts for individual heterogeneity. I'm running the following code on R : # System GMM > system_gmm =pgmm(DR~lag(DR)+Age+Size+AST+GR+NDTS+LQ+ROA+CCF+GDP+INF+INT+SMD+CFIN+UEMP|lag(DR, 2:99),mydata, index= c("Company.Name","FY"), model="twostep", effect ="twoways",collapse = TRUE, transformation = "ld" ) and it returns the following error : Error in solve.default(crossprod(WX, t.CP.WX.A1)) : system is computationally singular: reciprocal condition number = 2.21118e-69 In addition: Warning message: In pgmm(DR ~ lag(DR) + Age + Size + AST + GR + NDTS + LQ + ROA + : the first-step matrix is singular, a general inverse is used. I have attached a CSV file of my panel data set, please have a look and guide me. Thank you very much. Regards Ravindra Nath Shukla ABV-IIITM Gwalior ravindra@iiitm.ac.in
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I am looking for a book on Market Structures that I could use as a reference for research in Macroeconomics. Any suggestions would be welcome. #macroeconomics #International #Trade
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Abdoulaye Aboubacari Mohamed Thank you, Sir, i am very Grateful.
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Good day scholars,
I'm working on the impact of some macroeconomics variables on stock prices. I have done the differences of all variables and they are all stationary at First difference and also test for the arch and Garch effect for the stock prices. I'm lost on how to do the cointegration test, I'm I supposed to do cointegration of the variables directly or the one I difference?
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Hi, you can find help from this source:
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A significant increase in inflation as an important factor in the possibility of a possible new economic crisis?
What are the main sources of the increase in inflation in your country?
Can the rise in inflation in the coming months lead to specific economic problems for enterprises?
Is the increase in inflation in 2021 one of the major economic problems in your country, or is it a potential cause of these problems?
Are there symptoms of a much more serious problem, ie stagflation (high inflation and high unemployment, low economic growth)?
How can entrepreneurship be activated in a situation of stagflation following the economic crisis of 2020 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic and still relatively low interest rates?
In this discussion, please answer the above questions.
I invite you to discuss this issue.
What do you think about this topic?
What is your opinion on this issue?
Please reply,
I described a strong increase in inflation as a result of the applied interventionist state aid programs offered on a historically record scale to commercially operating economic entities in my article published at the end of December 2021. I am providing a link to this article:
I invite you to research cooperation in the field of developing new concepts for planning and implementing an effective strategy for the socio-economic development of the country, including shaping the anti-crisis and pro-development socio-economic policy in such a way as not to cause an increase in inflation, an increase in public debt and other negative effects of incorrectly conducted economic policy.
Thank you very much,
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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I think that all countries suffer from this inflation, since there is a huge imbalance in the economic principles of supply and demand but also as a result of the devaluation of currencies. However, the situation will normalize very soon since this inflation is the consequence of Covid-19.
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I need to test short and long run relationship of macro economic variables and stock market performance.
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It is interesting that all answers give recommendations for methods without asking about the specification of the model and which variables shall be used.
That is not econometrics, but only metrics without any economic content.
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Dear colleagues,
I have a research hypothesis which is the last hypothesis of my research. I am investigating the Dutch Disease phenomenon and how it can lead to de-industrialization in the Azerbaijani economy. I have not started the de-industrialization part yet, but my supervisor commented that the hypothesis I have is problematic in its current form. His comment: This is a rather problematic hypothesis. For structural changes in the economy may have many reasons. How do you separate the impact of increasing oil revenues or any other component? The screenshot below provides my hypothesis. What do you think about this situation? How can I answer this comment?
Best
Ibrahim
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The hypothesis implies that Dutch disease (DD) is confirmed. Nevertheless, it does not hurt non-oil tradable. Per definitionem, however, DD means deindustrialization of manufacturing. It were much clearer to test the effect of
1. Oil revenues/prices on the REERs (Regression 1)
2. The effect of the changing REERs on manufacturing (Regression 2)
3. conclude.
I hope this helps.
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We see at least two very dangerous features in post-covid China:
1) As we show in the attachments JEE 2020 and ICC 2020, Governments should be very carefull in trying to control prices or fix maximum/minimum thresholds. The price dynamics in complex economies condense a lot of scattered information, are an emergent property, and -under certain circumstances- aid at correcting disequilibria (see the papers attached). Becuase of cumulative wrong centralized decisions, disequilibria are multiplying in the Chinese economy (industrial, construction, energy sectors) and authorities are not allowing prices to show up as correcting re-adjustment signals. This is really dangerous as we show in papers ICC 2020 and JEvEcs 2020 attached (by Almudi et al.).
2) Secondly, as we show in Metroeconomica 2020 (also attached), in a context of increasing prices (shortages of energy and post-covid bottlenecks in global value chains), with high stocks of private debt, and everything developing within an otherwise innovative economy with low (but increasing) interest rates, the probable slight increase in inflation rates expected for the upcoming months will unchain a domino effect, with emergent "big rips" in the socio-economic Chinese system.
1) and 2) may announce a long (a decade) stagnation in the China economy. It seems that the European Union is perhaps the latest worldwide agent in noticing this. China is no longer a clear option. Still, Is China too big to fail?
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Angrist s new paradigm to deal with experimental data is very efficient, i would like to verify is this could be the same for topics dealing with macroeconomic data
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In many countries, a strong correlation was found between the change in the economic and financial situation of enterprises and the credit policy of banks.
The research shows that there is a dependency, correlation between the change in the rate of economic growth of the country, economic and financial situation of economic entities, citizens 'incomes, enterprises' investment, investment risk, liquidity risk, debt, creditworthiness, creditworthiness of enterprises, etc. and the changing the credit policy of commercial banks that provide corporate loans and consumer loans to citizens.
However, in recent years, especially before the emergence of the global financial crisis in 2008, it was possible to diagnose a reverse correlation, i.e. that banks, mainly investment banks in low interest rates activated the entire banking sector, including primarily retail commercial banking to provide subsequent mortgage loans even for borrowers no longer possessing creditworthiness. Credit rating agencies issued the highest AAA recommendations for the loan packages sold, most of which were of low quality and low creditworthiness. Insurance companies insured transactions of very high credit risk. Acting on behalf of banks, the media published articles suggesting a good prospect of economic development, a continuation of good economic conditions, including the real estate market, a further rise in property prices. Many financial institutions, media institutions and investment firms participating in this procedure commonly used unethical business practices.
In the light of the above, the following questions arise:
How should banking procedures be improved to prevent future use of such type of unethical business practices?
How should the processes of improving bank credit risk management be carried out in commercial banks, so that more such situations will not happen again, in order to avoid this type of another global financial crisis?
How strong can be the impact of the banks' lending policy on the situation in the construction sector?
In view of the above, is this impact not too strong in periods of high economic growth, ..., in periods of too high economic growth, overinvested investment projects financed mainly by loans and overvalued securities on stock exchanges?
Please reply
Best wishes
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DISCUSSION_D.Prokopowicz_....The significance of banks' lending policy....economic situation...national economy and credit risk lev
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The economy of Singapore is highly developed. It has been ranked by World economic forum as the most open economy in the world.
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Why Singapore can become a developed country? (1) Singapore relies on the industrial and service sectors as its main economic activity and source of income. (2) 5Human resources in Singapore are excellent and have skills. (3) Singapore's strategic location makes it easy for the country to export its industrial products and import its various needs. (4) The Singaporean government always monitors the country's economic development and makes this a special concern.
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In highly developed countries and economically fast developing countries there are analogous processes of changes in the demographic structure of society consisting in the aging of the population and the accompanying process of depopulation of cities, agglomeration, decreasing number of births, decreasing fertility rate in families. These processes, which are unfavorable for the economic development of the country, usually have at least several causes.
Extending the average life expectancy of citizens results from improved living standards, increased income and related improvements in quality of life, improvement of nutrition and improvement in the health care services sector. In addition, some of the lowly, educated people go to look for more interesting jobs and higher salaries by hiring in other countries. In a situation where young people paying off housing loans, are also burdened with various taxes, they are forced to work, to professional activity all adult members of the family of working age.
As a result, the pressure, the need to have more than 1 or 2 children are decreasing, and then the fertility decreases, which contributes to the decline in the number of citizens in the long term. In order to counteract this disadvantage for the national economy, this country should develop social policy to support young people, including subsidizing the purchase or rental of housing, establishing guaranteed income related to raising children, developing programs supporting the nursery, pre-school and education, pediatric health care system, etc.
Examples of such programs of active socio-economic policy are: Family 500 Plus Program and Flat Plus Program (Mieszkanie Plus Program). Because these programs have been developed only for 3 years, so you can not objectively assert how they affect the demographic structure of society, or motivate you to make decisions about having a larger number of children. In order to be able to answer this type of questions objectively, ie with regard to relevant scientific data, these Programs should be conducted with a minimum of 2-3 subsequent generations of citizens.
On the other hand, there has already been a noticeable increase in consumption for various types of goods purchased by citizens, which has a pro-development effect on the economy as it increases the level of economic growth. It may be one of the key elements of the socio-economic policy of anti-crisis, countercyclical importance, ie increasing the resilience of the domestic economy to global economic crises and the slowdown in global economy growth, e.g. the currently observed slowdown in global economy caused by the so-called war wars and other restrictions on the development of international trade.
In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:
How can changes in the demographic structure of society affect the economic development of the country?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
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The
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I am going to work on this however I can't understand which headings I cover. if anyone help me out of this to sort of some topics, it would be a great pleasure. And added that, is there any paper regard this, please let me know. I got some papers which are containing either economics or macro economics that was not absolute related what I am working.
Thank you.
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Perhaps this paper can help you.
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We all know about the traditional perfect market of Adam Smith and its place at the heart of pure or perfect capitalism.
We usually associate perfect market thinking with no government intervention unless there is market failure, but the perfect market of Adam Smith, like any other possible perfect market, can better be defined in terms of equality and freedom so as to be able to link it for example to imperfect markets such as dictatorship based markets or link it to distorted markets from the democracy point of view, which leads to the question, what is the conjunctural necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of perfect markets for example a la Adam Smith?
Feel free to provide your views, and keep in mind the angle of this question is “equality and freedom”, not government intervention or supply and demand interactions, even though they are linked.
This is an academic question, not a political one, and as usual my questions usually have a simple answer.
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Steven, nobody is accusing anybody here. When you say that an entity has more power than another in the market and that is why there is no equality and freedom, by definition you are not talking about Adam Smith's perfect market...
If you look carefully at the pareto efficient and optimal point/conditions of the perfect traditional market, you can not be there without freedom and equality, but if you assume equality away you can be there only with freedom.
Let's leave it here. I am here to exchange ideas, not to impose ideas.
Respectfully yours;
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According to the latest publications and news the majority of the experts argue that Coronavirus (COVID-19) slows down the economy, the consumption falls, and most of the industries face a recession.
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Of course, there are both positive and negative impacts on economies because of COVID-19. But, the negative ones (economic slowdown, hardships to the general public) are more prominent, in general.
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Many studies cover the positive relationship between women's education and participation with GDP growth. however, very few studies covered the effects of women's participation on wages, and these few studies are usually very general and do not cover specific sectors.
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Many developing countries has female labourers specifically garments or RMG sector depends on the participation of women. So women are creating a huge impact on GDP growth.
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Beginning with Keynes General theory , Phillips curve interpretation of policy trade-off to New Classical and to New Keynesian school of thought, the subject Macroeconomics travel a long path. From adhoc macroeconomics model to representative household in general equilibrium framework , methodologically the subject evolved tremendously. It will be great to find books or articles which capture the journey from the perspective of thought.
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"Free to Choose" (Friedman) should be in you history. It explains why the Keynesian doctrine had to be re-done, and re-done From Phillips doctrine failure (requiring one re-done) and the collapse of the Communism (requiring another re-done). And points to why anther re-do will be required.
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Hello,
We have difficulty establishing cointegration using the Johansen methodology for a set of macroeconomic variables of a developed country. Similar difficulty appears with the estimation of the ARDL model despite the fact that we have the option to choose variables from a larger set ,that meet the required dynamic stability properties. The left-hand variable is real GDP or its log.
Will it make sense to employ nominal variables?
The next step is to consider nonlinear models. Can you help.
Thank you.
George K Zestos
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I kindly thank professors Zunaira Zahoor and Ronando Gonzalez. I do not consider the case closed yet, new suggestions are welcome and are kindly appreciated especially if there are some Eviews examples with the articles.
kind regards
George K Zestos
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Could anyone suggest a package that implements the Lumsdaine and Pampell (1997) unit root test in R?
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@Fady M. A Hassouna and Kehinde Mary Bello, The augmented dickey fuller test is a conventional unit root test which does not account for structural breaks. Unlike, Lumsdane and pappel, Narayan and popp, Lee and stracizich and other unit root test that account for structural breaks.
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Analyzing the evolution of the FED balance, an expansion of its balance is observed in 2,200 trillion USD (+58% in a month and a half), being together with the reduction of the interest rate the two main monetary measures to "rescue the US economy" of the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. I believe that the first consequence of this massive monetary injection in the markets has been a recovery in the stock markets, which have already exceeded 30% since March lows, and a relaxation of the returns on corporate fixed income.
But what real effects are these measures going to have on the real economy? Will this monetary policy contribute to economic growth, will they create inflation? Or are they only intended to reassure financial markets? I appreciate your contributions. Thank you.
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MMT (Modern Economic Theory) would say that deficit spending is not a problem as long as it does not cause inflation, and that would not happen in a recession because the spending would not bid up the prices of goods or labor. However, in the pandemic recession, when production stopped for many goods, inflation might initially increase during shortages but should recede as supplies are resumed. If you are not family with MMT, a good intoduction is Kelton's book, The Deficit Myth.
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A population decline (or depopulation) in humans is a reduction in a human population caused by events such as long-term demographic trends, as in sub-replacement fertility, urban decay due to violence, disease, or other catastrophes. According to a controversial theory: shrink and prosper, the accompanying benefits of depopulation could be identified after the post-Civil War Gilded Age, post-World War I economic boom, and the post-World War II economic boom.
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Dear Dr. László Vértesy , thank you for the thought provoking question.
Advantages of a decreasing population
Long term benefits
1. Will bring better balance among the living beings/organisms.
2. Extinction of Religions and Gods
3. People will celebrate life. I think there will be no artificial, man-made death in the name of God(s), Religion, Nationality etc.,
4. People will die only by natural causes. The reaming few (People) will support each other to save the life other every other person.
Short term benefits
1. Less pollution, Lesser need for food, land and other resources.
2. More pet animals are saved from the harassment of humankind and live in their natural habitat. They may live happily (may be unhappily at times) with their Father, Mother, Sisters, Brothers and could escape from the confinement.
Disadvantages of a decreasing population
1. Long term impact - Extinction of Languages, Culture, Food Choices
2. Short term impact - Economy will shrink, more unemployment, population will have fewer young people supporting huge number of elders.
3. The streets, seemingly empty streets, buildings etc., may look devilish.
Some useful links:
Thank you for this wonderful opportunity to share my views.
Best wishes and regards
Yoganandan
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Is there any underpinning theory, that can explain a framework testing the effect of bank-specific, industry-specific, and macroeconomic factors on banks profitability?
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Hello everyone. I am using the VECM model and I want to use variance decomposition, but as you know variance decomposition is very sensitive to the ordering of the variable. I read in some papers that it will be better to use generalized variance decomposition because it is invariant to the ordering of the variables. I am using Stata, R or Eviews and the problem is how to perform Generalised VD and please if anyone knows help me
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I am currently studying the non-performing loans.The independent variables are Lending rate, GDP and Unemployment (these are the macroeconomic determinants of NPL). Dependent variable of the study is the Non-performing loans. MY QUESTION IS DO I HAVE TO USE CONTROL VARIABLES? If yes, why?
-Thank you in advance 😊
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Nice ques, following
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Apparently, on the financial markets and in macroeconomic determinants of the economic situation in particular sectors and entire economies of developed countries, there are symptoms that suggest a high probability of economic slowdown from 2020 in individual countries and, consequently, in the entire global economy.
Therefore, I am asking you: Do you know the forecasts of the global economic development that would suggest a high probability of deceleration (or possibly acceleration) of economic growth from 2020 in individual countries and, consequently, in the entire global economy?
What are the symptoms of potential changes in the financial markets and / or the scope of macroeconomic determinants of the economic situation in particular sectors and entire economies?
If you know the results of prognostic research in this area, please send links to websites or scientific publications in which this type of prognostic issues are taken.
I wish you the best in New Year 2019.
Best wishes
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9 May MMXXI
Please read attached article, THE ART OF GREED...
Cordially...
ASJ
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i need dataset with world's or country's macroeconomic indicators and/or global indexes yearly for build some machine learning predictive model, who can help? Thanks a lot
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Dear colleagues,
in my classes about global health issues I often use Gapminder tools to visualize macroregional differences. On our last seminar, we talked about two key indicators - life expectancy and income, and how that can be linked together. In Gapminder, countries are devided also according to WB to so called Income groups. I discussed with students, that there are still differences within one income group still, and one example we showed , is a more than 20 years gap difference in life expectancy between countries of Nicaragua and Papua New Guinea. They both belong to Income group No.2, have almost identical GDP/capita income, and still a huge difference in their life expectancy indicator (sse the picture). Does anybody here can share some insights, why it is so? Is there such a difference in health care system of those countries with very similar macroeconomic indicator? I will appreciate any idea realated to that. Thank you!
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Thank you Olena Wagner for your input. Yes, I discussed that issue with a deputy for food programme located in Port Moresby, and he confirmed, that crime (including those crimes committed in clan wars and tribal fights) are impotant indicator that caused prematured death in many cases. That influences the total lifespan accordingly.
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It has been said that the IS-LM has limitations that makes it difficult to relate to reality.
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It is used in teaching macroecomics because it has a framework that incorporates the foundations of the principles of economics. Demand and supply tools are applied to macro aggregates like Agg Demand and Agg Supply, money, investment, govt expenditure, exports and imports with the prices (interest rates, exchange rates and inflation). Concepts of equilibrium and disequilibrium are also displayed.
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I was using the VAR model and to see the impulse response function I used Cholesky decomposition. data is quarterly from 2003q1 to 2019q2. The first variable is oil price as a supply shock, second output gap by applying Hodrick-Prescott filter, third for the monetary policy-money base, fourth nominal effective exchange rate, and fifth cpi. After the first difference, they are stationary. response of CPI to nominal effective exchange rate shock was negative, which means that there is deflation, but at the same time base money has a positive response to neer shock, which means that the national bank uses expansionary policy. and if there is deflation why use national bank expansionary policy?
some people from this site advised me to use the structural VAR model instead of the ordinary VAR model. unfortunately, I do not have experience working with it and I have a problem constructing the model correctly. can anyone help how to construct a correct matrix? my baseline= (oil, output gap, money base, Neer, CPI)
(a 0 0 0 0)
(a a 0 0 0)
(a a a 0 0 )
(0 a a a 0)
(0 a 0 a a)
I should do something like this, but I don't know if it is correct, so please help me to order variables correctly.
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Hi Irakly
you may try changing the order of the variables. In SVAR models with chokesky decomposition the order of vars is such that the first variable is affected only by its own shocks and not CONTEMPORANEOUSLY affected by shocks to the other variables. the second one, is affected only by its own shocks plus the shocks affecting the first one. The third one by the shocks affecting the first two plus is own. So on and so forth... I would revise your ordering. you can see papers by stock and Watson for author active references on this field.
good luck!
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I am searching for good (Principles) Macroeconomics online and free courses for undergraduates students (economics). I already found a pretty didactically and deep (Principles) Microeconomics course provided by MIT university.
However I was not successful in find Macroeconomics courses. May someone indicated online courses?
Thanks in advance.
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Hi, I wish to use a macroeconomic model to analyze the environmental and social-economic effects of biofuel quotas in two countries. For environmental assessment, I am considering the carbon footprint and biodiversity losses. And for the latter, I want to look into income inequality.
In your opinion, what are the advantages and disadvantages of using E3ME and environmentally extended input-output method to do this task? Or do you recommend other models for this task?
Thank you in advance.
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For answer see this link:
httpss://chaturvedimayank.wordpress.com/2017/02/21/stock-flow-consistent-models-for-ecological-economics/
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In 2012 we moved from traditional market thinking to green market thinking, but we are still trying to address the environmental crisis from outside green market thinking. What about for example, perfect green market competition?....Has anybody thought about it?. I have.
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Dear Lucio,
This topic will probably always be relevant, at least for the next several dozen years. Some kind of precursor concepts of what you called green market thinking and I refer to it as a green social market economy or a sustainable green circular economy appeared earlier, at the end of the 20th century, but it was ignored. Only in the last few years, the topic of sustainable, green circular economy has become one of the important topics undertaken not only by scientists and researchers, but also it is a topic of debates and discussions in the context of the development of applied environmental policies, adapting enterprises to the principles of pro-ecological policy, to increasing the possibilities of achieving the goals of sustainable development, implementing green technologies and eco-innovations. However, these large-scale processes will not be self-realized as an objective process. It is necessary to increase the scale of pro-environmental state interventionism. Enterprises without external pressure will not decide on their own pro-ecological reforms and green transformations, because it involves additional costs and / or investments and a change in the profile of the product and service offer addressed to citizens. Therefore, the pro-environmental, general social awareness of citizens must also increase, so that pro-ecological offers are chosen more often than non-ecological ones. Unfortunately, the opposite is usually the case, as green product and / or service offers tend to be more expensive than non-green ones. It should be otherwise. For the opposite to be the case, it is necessary to increase the scale of pro-environmental state interventionism. In view of the above, a pro-social and pro-environmental economic system defined as a green social market economy or a sustainable, circular green economy will not be created by itself in the process of objective development of market structures. It is necessary to constantly and gradually increase the scale of pro-ecological state interventionism and the general social pro-environmental awareness of citizens.
Greetings, Have a nice day, Stay healthy!
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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The current technological revolution, known as Industry 4.0, is determined by the development of the following technologies of advanced information processing: Big Data database technologies, cloud computing, machine learning, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, Business Intelligence and other advanced data mining technologies.
In connection with the above, I would like to ask you:
Is the process of conducting economic analyzes improved thanks to the development of information technology Industry 4.0?
For example, whether through the use of information technologies in analytical processes such as database technologies for collecting and processing, analyzing large data sets in Big Data database systems, in cloud computing, using the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, economic analyzes carried out on computerized platforms Business Intelligence - it is possible to effectively analyze much larger amounts of economic data concerning individual companies, their contractors and the economic, market and macroeconomic environment than before, ie a few years ago when these technologies were not used while carrying out economic, fundamental and financial, indicative analyzes e.t.c.?
Please reply
Best wishes
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Yes you are right. Thanks to the use of Industry 4.0 technology, operations are improved, logistics processes are improved, e.g. supply logistics, distribution, production and e-logistics. This increases the efficiency of production processes, optimizes the operational costs of the production process, increases the scale of automation and objectification of production processes, reduces the scale of errors and failures, and improves the quality of manufactured products. Then, thanks to ICT, Internet and Industry 4.0 information technologies, including smart technologies, Internet of Things technologies, cloud computing, Big Data Analytics, machine learning, artificial intelligence, robotics, etc., data describing production processes can be processed and analyzed using computerized Business Intelligence platforms and used in real-time reporting. The reports obtained in this way are helpful in the efficient management of an organization, enterprise, company, corporation, financial or public institution.
Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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I'm doing a research on macroeconomics of Hong Kong, but i can't search quarterly real interest rate data
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If you do not find it, the annual data can be converted into quarterly using the Eviews program
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Just as food for thoughts, what type of macroeconomy the integrating of innovation and climate with economic growth leads to?.: To the same traditional macroeconomy or to a dwarf traditional macroeconomy or to a green macroeconomy or to a dwarf green macroecomy. What do you think?
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I appreciate Lucio Muñoz for the valuable topic. Would be interested to know as well.
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Has the scale and instances of dissonance increased since the 1970s, and the disparity between the macroeconomic situation and the economic situation of a particular national or global economy, including economic growth, etc., and the situation on capital markets, including securities markets?
The above discussion inspired me to the following considerations: Well, since the development of the deregulation process, the increase in the globalization of financial markets, the introduction to the financial markets of many derivatives without full supervision by financial supervision institutions, i.e. since the 1970s the frequency has increased and the scale of emerging financial and economic crises in various parts of the world. At the same time, perhaps the business cycles are increasingly influenced by the monetary policy of central banks and fiscal policies of governments mainly of the world's largest economies. The result may be a growing discrepancy, a growing disproportion between the macroeconomic situation and the situation of a particular national economy or global economy, including economic growth, etc., and the situation on capital markets, including securities markets.
What do you think about this topic?
What is your opinion on this topic?
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:
Has the scale and instances of dissonance increased since the 1970s, and the disparity between the macroeconomic situation and the economic situation of a particular national or global economy, including economic growth, etc., and the situation on capital markets, including securities markets?
Please reply
I invite you to discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
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Thank you for your detailed analysis.
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Dear altruist,
I am conducting research related to financial innovation. So, I decided to use broad-to-narrow money (M2/M1) as a proxy for financial innovation. Although the broad money data is available on the World Bank website, I was unable to come across any website that offers the narrow money data of all the countries for free. I have seen a website like Trading Economics that has the data related to M1 and M2 money supply, but they are on a pay per basis. As I am still an undergraduate student, I cannot afford to buy this data. It would be really helpful if anyone could suggest, where can I get Narrow Money (M1) or broad-to-narrow money (M2/M1) data of all the countries for free?
It is worth mentioning that the OECD database has narrow money data for all the OECD countries, but they do not have broad money data. One can ask why am I not using broad money data from the World Bank’s website (WB). Well, that is because OECD’s narrow money (M1) data and the WB’s broad money data is using two different types of variable. I cannot figure out how they will work together. So, if you can also provide any suggestions related to this, it will help too.
Thank you.
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As Navin Perera suggested try searching IMF or have a look at the Global Financial indicators by World bank.
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Usually we use the two terms interchangeably in our articles but whether is there any technical difference between them?
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I guess the difference is in the words implication Vs recommendation. Implication is the outcome result following your analysis, while recomendation is what you proposed or your choice of outcome to follow.
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I am very keen to join the Post Doctoral Fellowship programme in economics. My area of specialisation is macroeconomics, food inflation, development and volatility modelling. I am looking for this position in Asian and Australian continent.
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Have you looked at the Job Openings for Economists website? Many of the deadlines may have passed, but they may still accept for post-doc.
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Dear all,
Could you recommend macroeconomic studies (hopefully published in good journals) that use system GMM or Arellano-Bond estimators?
Thanks a lot!
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Try this:
Hugo Kruiniger, 2000. "GMM Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Persistent Data," Working Papers 428, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
Daniel H. Vedia-Jerez & Coro Chasco (2016) Long-Run Determinants of
Economic Growth in South America, Journal of Applied Economics, 19:1, 169-192, DOI: 10.1016/S1514-0326(16)30007-1
Kwang Jo Jeong (2017) Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in 18 OECD Countries, Seoul Journal of Economics 2017, Vol. 30, No. 1
Felbermayr, G.(2005), “Dynamic Panel Data Evidence on the Trade-Income Relation”, Review of World Economics, 141(4), pp. 583-611.
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In recent times, there have been many topics on how artificial intelligence can be used in finance: automatic financial advice, new tools, more accurate prediction, automatic trading, data management, poverty alleviation, new ethical dilemmas.
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Dear Dr László Vértesy, I think algorithm based trading ( share, foreign exchange and commodity) has huge scope for AI. Already we are into it. Initially these will be premium services..... meaning will help rich becoming richer ànd poor becoming poorer. Warm regards Yoganandan G
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It is rather like trying to describe a tiger skin carpet by providing details about each hair! Even with a computer which can absorb all of the data about the individuals of our society, the output is likely to be so long and confusing that we will be unable to follow it and find out how it works. So what do micro-economics and macro-economics share in terms of specific data?
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It seems that there is no direct and simple answer to this question. I find that certain principles are commonly shared in the working of micro- and macro- such as the demand and supply relationships. But otherwise these two representations are incompatible. Please tell me if I am wrong.
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I have seen a couple of research articles on the effect of the novel covid 19 on macroeconomic variables. I would like to throw an open question that is it econometric ally ideal to map a discrete count variable ( covid 19 cases) on macroeconomic variables such as inflation, GDP, exchange rate etc which are continuous random variable..or perhaps is there are method that supports this.. Knowing fully well that computer programs doesn't recognize the covid number of cases as count unless when specified.
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Thanks for the insight @Anton Rainer
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I have a couple of questions regarding divine coincidence.
1) As Blanchard and Gali (2006) stated NKPC illustrates that stabilising inflation (make inflation constant) achieves output gap = 0. If you do the simple calculation if π = E( π ) then the output will not equal to the natural level of output?- or does he implicitly assumes that stabilising inflation means that π = E( π ) = 0?
2) Followed by their literature, divine coincident happens whenever there is a constant gap between the natural level of output and efficient level of output.
And I don't quite understand how the stabilising the output gap (setting output - natural level) is equivalent to stabilising the welfare-relevant output gap ??? (output - the efficient level of output)
- since there exists a gap between natural level and efficient level of output, shouldn't it be the case that setting output greater than natural level (=nd hence closer to efficient level ) better policy?
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How can we attribute Logic to Divine Coincidence?
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Could you know what are Historical diseases / pandemics in the past reflected on Global economy and Financial markets in the past?
like Spanish influenza that spread in 1918 and reached peak in 1920 impacted on the global economy?
There were another pandemics in the past had significant impact on the global economy and/or financial markets ?
There were many and many pandemics (e.g., Ebola, SARS 2003, H1N1, .... etc)
So, which one or more of them have significant impact on Economy / financial market even globally or in specific countries (i.e., SARS 2003 impacted on China's Economy)
Kindly, Let's share and discuss
Thanks in advance
Ahmed
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The Spanish flu has a detrimental impact on the economy. Swine flu, although considered an epidemic instead of a pandemic, has an adverse effect on USA economy. Basically pandemics and epidemics resulted in deaths and unemployment which led to a reduction in consumer spending and thus an imminent decline in economics performance.
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Trade wars can lead to a decline in revenues in the state budget if the country developed exports and obtained high income from the state budget. In this situation, trade wars can lead to a public finance crisis if the state budget has a high budget deficit and public finances are burdened with high public debt. In this situation there is a systemic risk of increasing indebtedness and loss of liquidity in the state finances. This type of situation can lead to an economic crisis.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:
In what situations can trade wars lead some of the smaller national economies to an economic crisis?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
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Trade wars can lead to a decline in revenues in the state budget if the country developed exports and obtained high income from the state budget. In this situation, trade wars can lead to a public finance crisis if the state budget has a high budget deficit and public finances are burdened with high public debt.
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Imaging there are pareto optimality trends driven by externality cost generated pareto improvement dynamics in all possible markets.
Then pareto optimality will shift to the right until there is no more cost to externalize in each market, and the market among them with the lowest market price possible will be then the pareto optimal bundle furthest to the right as there will be here the highest level of production and consumption possible among all markets.
If these are the pareto optimality trends driven by increasing cost externalization, then this raises the question Is sustainability negatively related to pareto optimality trends? I think yes, what do you think? …
I am interested in your own views only in order to share ideas directly.
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Thank you Lucio Muñoz .
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Our data is yearly time series on macroeconomic variables. Observations = 20 years. Dependent variable is GDP growth. Independent variables are governement terms (dummies) Consumptions, net trade, FDI, F. reserve, population growth, and agri. prod. The main objective is to examine the impact of government terms on economic development.
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20 years of data and you have so many independent variables may run into problems when using GMM. GMM is an instrumental approach to estimation and most effective to address heterogeneity issues in cross sectional dynamic panel models. For your problem there are other estimators you can use which you can try and compared. Time series data normally have serial correlaton problems compared to heteroskedasticity in cross sectional data.
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Think for a moment, shifting from traditional market thinking to green market thinking in 2012 Rio +20 meant a shift from pareto optimality thinking to green pareto optimality thinking, yet to my knowledge nothing is written about this. Green pareto optimality thinking is at the heart of perfect green markets.
And this raises the question, what is the structure of green pareto optimality then? What do you think? I am interested in exchanging ideas on how to address this question and exchange thoughts.
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Dear friends, here I am sharing an expansion of green pareto optimality and traditional pareto optimality to link it to environmental externality management markets, simply as food for thoughts, done with positive intentions just to share ideas
Sustainability thoughts 126: Are environmental externality management based production and consumption bundles inconsistent with green pareto efficiency and with pareto efficiency principles at the same time? If yes, why?
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Hi,
I am conducting research related to financial innovation. So, I decided to use broad-to-narrow money (M2/M1) as a proxy for financial innovation. Although the M2 money (broad money) data is available on the World Bank website, I was unable to come across any website that offers the M1 money (narrow money data) of all the countries for free. I have seen a website like Trading Economics that has the data related to M1 and M2 money supply, but they are on a pay per basis. As I am still an undergraduate student, I cannot afford to buy this data. It would be really helpful if anyone could suggest, where can I get Narrow Money (M1) or broad-to-narrow money (M2/M1) data of all the countries for free?
It is worth mentioning that the OECD database has narrow money data for all the OECD countries, but they do not have broad money data. One can ask why am I not using broad money data from the World Bank’s website (WB). Well, that is because OECD’s narrow money (M1) data and the WB’s broad money data is using two different types of variable. I cannot figure out how they will work together. So, if you can also provide any suggestions related to this, it will help too.
Thank you.
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Besides the above mentioned institutions, try Penn World and University of Groningen data:
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Here is the case, as I said, I am working on how Macroeconomic variables affect REIT Index Return. To understand how macroeconomic variables affect REIT which tests or estimation method should I use.
I know I can use OLS but is there any other method to use? All my time series are stationary at I(0).
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I will recommend you use Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) or the Markov Switching Time-Varying Transitory Probability (MS-TVTP) model.
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Here is the case, as I said, I am working on relationship between REIT Index Return and Macroeconomic variables. To understand how macroeconomic variables affect REIT, I designed a game plan by reading literature however I am not sure because, I don't have that much knowledge on econometrics.
Here is the game plan.
I already did an ADF test for stationarity of my time series and all the variables are stationary so now I am planning to do granger casuality test. Its for my dissertation so I wanted to add one more analysis so I thought about using VAR model in order to regress it but I am not sure whether its necessary or not. Some people did that in the literature. I have 5 independent variables btw.
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Granger causality can be conducted for bivariate time series or multivariate time series, to test for a relationship - one sided or two-sided. VAR models simultaneous relationships and may not be applicable for one-sided relationship. If your question is that you have evidence of one-sided relationship using Granger, do I need a VAR to model the relationship? A VAR has other strengths (tracing shocks to the system and to see whether it is stable) other than modelling such a relationship. It also depends on number of observations given your 5 independent variables which will affect your df.
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I do not see other way out of this inmense crisis within the European Union. Neither MEDE, nor Eurobonds. From an overlapping generations perspective, with children and young people (who have probability quasi-zero of being infected) being forced to stop their lives and careers, we mid-age and mature people are the ones who must bear the cost of the COVID-crisis. And this means inflation (never debt). Therefore, direct monetization of aid for the shock and partial debt relief. And then, a re-europeization of the investment flows (yes, protectionism) with a strong industrial policy direction in mind.
I am conscious of the asymetric international effects of the shock within the european partners. But, either we together, and in the current generation, bear the whole cost in the form of inflation, or our legacy for future generations (within an already highly leveraged framework) is conmdemned to a Euro-collapse in 15 years. What do you think?
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Well, Europe is better placed with institutional systems and strategies to recover from the COVID-19 (Chinese Virus). Africa with its maximally corrupt politicians are worst of, and in a frightening position. All over the world, efforts must be made for China to pay for this global danger. And Europe and America should be at the front of taming China and recouping compensations from China. This is one major way of protecting European youths and future generations from future bio-terrorism, or techo-science oppression. Africa must learn this.
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Hi all,
My paper is looking at the most significant determinants of u.k. economic growth. I will look at macroeconomic , technological, human capital, socio-geographical and governance variables against the dependent variable of GDP growth. Anyone who has done research into growth-theories could suggest suitable statistical models which can be used on stata? I am looking at Baynesian Model Averaging currently but not sure that is the best model out there
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Hi Adam,
Seems like a similar research I have done for my country and the EU in general.
You can run a Bayesian Model Averaging on panel data, using R software and BMS package: http://bms.zeugner.eu/ (here you can find also all support materials). As far as I know, BMA is not available in Stata and its full functionality could be run only in R.
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