Macroeconomics - Science topic

Dear Researchers, Scientists, Friends,

Economic globalisation has brought about many changes in the structure of world trade, investment and the labour market. On the one hand, it has enabled the growth of prosperity and the development of many economies, but on the other hand, it has contributed to the concentration of capital in the hands of transnational corporations and an increase in social inequality. Studies show that economic globalisation significantly promotes prosperity and increases economic efficiency in at least some of the countries involved. On the other hand, economic globalisation can also lead to increased income inequality and dependence on international capital. Furthermore, the impact of globalisation on economies depends on the policies of individual countries and their ability to protect their own economic interests. As a result, globalisation has intensified international trade and capital flows and increased market competitiveness. However, in many developing countries, it has led to economic dependence on foreign investment and production for international corporations. At the same time, jobs are being eroded in highly developed countries, where production processes are being relocated to cheaper locations. There is a need for a balanced economic policy that allows us to reap the benefits of globalisation while minimising its negative effects.

My articles below are related to some aspects of the above-mentioned issues:

I have described the main issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets in my article below:

I have described the key issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets in my article below:

I have described the issue of economic globalisation as an important factor in the systemic transformation of banking in Poland in the following article:

My highly cited publication on economic globalisation:

And what is your opinion on this matter?

What do you think about this?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Recessions and economic crises have a huge impact on the lives of citizens, the stability of the financial system and economic development. Proponents of interventionism emphasise that active fiscal and monetary policies can effectively counter recessions, protect jobs and stabilise markets. Economic liberals, on the other hand, point out that state intervention often leads to market distortions, increased public debt and reduced entrepreneurship. The important question remains whether interventionist policies are more effective than market approaches in preventing economic crises. Studies analysing the interventionist measures taken during recent economic and financial crises show that greater state intervention in the economy can, under certain conditions, be more effective in stabilising the economy and preventing crises than free-market mechanisms. This issue is central to the debate on the role of the state in the economy. Economic crises such as the Great Depression of 1929 or the financial crisis of 2008 have shown that a lack of regulation and supervision can lead to destabilisation. However, excessive regulation and government debt resulting from intervention can lead to a reduction in innovation and market efficiency. Modern economic models suggest that the optimal solution may lie somewhere in the middle – the state should intervene at key moments, but should not completely dominate the economy.

I have written about the sources of the high inflation that has occurred after the Covid-19 pandemic since 2021 in the following article based on my research:

I have described the key issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets in my article below:

I have described the key issues of the exceptionally deep energy crisis in Poland in 2022 in my co-authored article below:

I have described crisis management in companies in the article:

I have described the key issues of anti-crisis state intervention in my article below:

Anti-crisis state intervention and created in media images of global financial crisis

I have described the key aspects of the monetary policy pursued by central banks in recent years in the following article:

What is your opinion on this matter?

What do you think about this topic?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

This research question concerns a fundamental issue that is the subject of extensive debate in macroeconomics. It asks how central banks' monetary policy decisions (interest rate changes, open market operations) affect the balance between inflation and unemployment in the long term. The question is whether keeping interest rates low for a long time leads to higher inflation at the expense of employment growth or, on the contrary, promotes price stability with minimal unemployment. This implies that we are dealing with a question about the potential conflict or coexistence of these two phenomena in the context of monetary policy. Research shows that in the long term, monetary policy aimed at lowering interest rates can lead to an increase in inflation while keeping unemployment low, but at some point this balance may shift, where a further increase in inflation can negatively affect employment. In view of the above, this question is very important in the context of the conclusions to be drawn for economic practice, especially in the era of global economic crises and pandemics. The long-term effects of central bank decisions, such as lowering interest rates, have a direct impact on the pace of economic growth and the structure of the labour market. Research in this area allows for a better understanding of how to balance monetary policy to prevent negative effects in the form of high inflation or recession, while ensuring the long-term development of the economy.

My articles below are related to the above issues in some aspects:

I have written about the sources of the high inflation that has occurred since 2021 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic in the following article based on my research:

THE POST-COVID RISE IN INFLATION: COINCIDENCE OR THE RESULT OF MISGUIDED, EXCESSIVELY INTERVENTIONIST AND MONETARIST ECONOMIC POLICIES

I have described the key aspects of the monetary policy pursued by central banks in recent years in the following article:

Comparisons of the monetary policy of the central banks of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland

I have written about the mild, synchronised monetary policy during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 in the following articles, among others:

Analysis of the effects of post-2008 anti-crisis mild monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

ACTIVATING INTERVENTIONIST MONETARY POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SECURITY OF THE EUROPEAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM

What is your opinion on this matter?

Please reply,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dear Researchers, Scientists, Friends,

In the face of increasing automation and robotisation, many jobs are becoming redundant, raising concerns about the future of employment. The concept of a universal basic income is based on the idea that every citizen receives a certain amount of money, regardless of their professional situation. Proponents of the UBI claim that it will minimise the effects of technological unemployment and ensure a dignified life for citizens. Critics, on the other hand, point out that UBI can lead to higher taxes, a decrease in work motivation and a burden on the state budget. According to the accepted research thesis, a universal basic income can effectively mitigate the negative effects of technological unemployment, but its long-term impact on the economy depends on the model of its financing. Experiments in Finland and Canada suggest that a UBI can improve citizens' quality of life and reduce the stress associated with job loss, but at the same time its impact on economic activity is ambiguous. The high financing costs of UBI require thorough economic analyses, especially in the context of the future of taxes and income redistribution. Interdisciplinary research combining economics, psychology and social sciences can help assess whether UBI is indeed the future of social systems or just a utopian idea.

My articles below are related to the above issue in some aspects:

FAMILY 500 PLUS PROGRAMS AND FLAT PLUS WITH KEY INSTRUMENTS FOR PRIVATE SOCIAL POLICY IN POLAND

NATIONAL HOUSING PROGRAMME OF THE MAIN STRATEGIC AND PROGRAMME DOCUMENT FOR THE CURRENT STATE RESIDENTIAL POLICY OF THE STATE

IMPORTANCE OF INTRODUCING THE 500 PLUS FAMILY PROGRAMME AS A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN COMPREHENSIVE INVESTMENT POLICY FOR FAMILIES IN POLAND

Current and future objectives of pro-family social policy based on the Family 500 Plus programme

The financial situation of households in Poland and the significance of introducing the ‘Family 500 Plus’ programme as part of a comprehensive pro-family social policy.

And what is your opinion on this topic?

And what do you think about it?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please reply,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Central banks such as the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are faced with the dilemma of whether their main objective should be to fight inflation or to promote economic growth. High inflation erodes the value of money and reduces the purchasing power of citizens, while overly restrictive monetary policy can stifle investment and economic growth. Research shows that a focus on stabilising inflation leads to long-term economic stability, but at the expense of short-term economic growth. On the other hand, promoting economic growth through looser monetary policy leads to higher inflation and potential income inequality. Therefore, the above question is crucial in the macroeconomic debate and is of great importance for the country's economic policy. The choice between stabilising inflation and promoting economic growth is not an easy one, as the two objectives are contradictory. History shows that periods of high inflation have often led to economic uncertainty and financial instability, but at the same time, overly restrictive monetary policy has hampered growth and led to recession. A modern approach to monetary policy often involves a compromise between these two objectives, but the effectiveness of this approach depends on economic conditions, the structure of the labour market and the flexibility of the financial system. It is also worth considering the impact of technological innovation and the digitalisation of finance on the ability of central banks to control inflation and economic growth.

My articles below are related to the above issue in some aspects:

THE POST-COVID RISE IN INFLATION: COINCIDENCE OR THE RESULT OF MISGUIDED, EXCESSIVELY INTERVENTIONIST AND MONETARIST ECONOMIC POLICIES

I have described the key aspects of the monetary policy pursued by central banks in recent years in the following article:

Comparisons of the monetary policy of the central banks of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland

What is your opinion on this matter?

What do you think about this?

Please reply,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dear Researchers, Scientists, Friends,

Central banks increasingly have to balance between autonomous monetary policy and international commitments, especially within organisations such as the European Union or the International Monetary Fund. Research shows that an autonomous interest rate policy allows for a better response to local economic conditions. On the other hand, the harmonisation of interest rate policies stabilises the global financial system and reduces the risk of currency crises. Interest rates therefore have a direct impact on inflation, public debt, investment and consumption. In eurozone countries, a common monetary policy means that individual countries cannot adjust interest rates to their own needs, which can lead to economic disparities. In countries outside of monetary unions, full autonomy in monetary policy allows for adaptation to local challenges, but at the same time can lead to currency speculation and financial market instability. This problem is becoming particularly relevant in view of the growing importance of international financial institutions and the digitisation of currencies, e.g. in the context of the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDC).

My articles below are related to the above issue in some aspects:

I have described the key aspects of the monetary policy pursued by central banks in recent years in the following article:

I have written about the mild, synchronised monetary policy during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 in the following articles, among others:

A what is your opinion on this matter?

What do you think about this?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dear Researchers, Scientists, Friends,

Investments in AI and automation are crucial for increasing the competitiveness of the economy, but they can also lead to increased technological unemployment. The dilemma is whether government support for these technologies will bring more benefits or exacerbate social problems. Research shows that investment in AI and automation will increase economic productivity and create new employment sectors. On the other hand, mass automation will lead to increased unemployment and labour market polarisation. The dilemma formulated in the above question takes on particular significance in the context of Industry 4.0 and the growing role of robotics in the manufacturing and service sectors. While previous technological revolutions led to the creation of new jobs, there is no guarantee that a similar effect will occur in the case of AI and automation. There is a risk that the economic benefits will be concentrated in the hands of technology corporations, and the middle class will experience negative consequences. An alternative could be the implementation of active income redistribution policies or the concept of basic income, which could mitigate the effects of technological unemployment.

I have described the key issues of the opportunities and threats to the development of artificial intelligence technologies in my article below:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please reply,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

The question is about the causes of economic crises. On the one hand, inappropriate fiscal policy (e.g. excessive government spending or insufficient investment in key sectors of the economy) can lead to a crisis, while on the other hand, mismanagement of public debt can cause a loss of confidence in the economy and its collapse. Research shows that an economic crisis is not only the result of inadequate fiscal policy, but also of an uncontrolled increase in public debt, which leads to a loss of confidence among investors and citizens, which in turn triggers a recession. In line with the above, many economic crises in history have been caused by both fiscal policy errors and an uncontrolled increase in public debt. On the one hand, excessive spending policies can lead to inflation and an uncontrolled increase in the budget deficit, which reduces the room for manoeuvre in crisis situations. On the other hand, excessive debt can lead to a loss of confidence in the stability of public finances, resulting in capital outflows, increased debt servicing costs and recession. Ultimately, economic crises are often the result of the complex interaction of these two factors, and understanding their interdependencies is key to preventing future crises.

I have described the key issues of the exceptionally deep energy crisis in Poland in 2022 in my co-authored article below:

POLAND'S 2022 ENERGY CRISIS AS A RESULT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND YEARS OF NEGLECT TO CARRY OUT A GREEN TRANSFORMATION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR

I have described crisis management in companies in the article:

CRISES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF BUSINESS ENTITIES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT

I have described the key issues of anti-crisis state intervention in my article below:

Anti-crisis state intervention and created in media images of global financial crisis

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please reply,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Globalisation makes national economies increasingly vulnerable to external economic shocks and speculative capital movements. Governments and central banks are faced with the dilemma of how best to stabilise the economy: is it better to pursue a restrictive fiscal policy and reduce debt, or to adopt a loose monetary policy to stimulate economic growth and avoid recession? This issue is crucial for economic management in the 21st century. A restrictive fiscal policy can lead to a reduction in public debt and improve the country's credibility in the financial markets, but at the same time it can limit public investment and economic growth. On the other hand, loose monetary policy can stimulate investment and consumption, but in the long run it threatens excessive private sector debt and rising inflation. This problem is further complicated by the fact that the effects of both policies depend on macroeconomic conditions and the level of integration of the national economy with international markets.

My following articles are related to the above issues in some aspects:

O źródłach wysokiej inflacji jaka wystąpiła po pandemii Covid-19 od 2021 roku na podstawie przeprowadzonych badań napisałem w poniższym moim artykule:

Kluczowe aspekty prowadzonej w ostatnich latach przez banki centralne polityki monetarnej opisałem w poniższym artykule:

I have described the main issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets in my article below:

I have described the issue of economic globalisation as an important factor in the systemic transformation of banking in Poland in the following article:

My highly cited publication on economic globalisation:

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Universal basic income (UBI) is a concept in which every citizen receives regular, unconditional payments from the state, regardless of their financial and professional situation. Its introduction could be a potential solution to problems related to automation, income inequality and economic crises. The debate on UBI is ongoing in both academic and political circles. Proponents argue that providing a minimum income to every citizen could reduce poverty levels, increase consumer demand and limit the effects of economic crises by stabilising household incomes. However, critics point out that financing UBI could require a significant increase in taxes or redistribution of budgetary expenditure, which could weaken economic growth. Another argument against UBI is the fear that it could negatively affect economic activity by reducing the motivation to work. The introduction of a UBI would therefore require detailed analyses of its impact on the economy, the level of inflation and the employment structure. I am researching issues related and related to this problem. I have described the results of my research in publications on the objectives, legitimacy of introduction and implementation of government social policy programmes, i.e. the Family 500 Plus programme (renamed Family 800 Plus from January 2024) and the Flat Plus programme.

The following articles of mine are related to the above issues in some substantive aspects:

And what is your opinion on this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please reply,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

When faced with rising inflation, policymakers can choose between two main strategies: tightening monetary policy (by raising interest rates) or tightening fiscal policy (by reducing public spending). Each of these methods has its advantages and limitations, and their effectiveness depends on macroeconomic conditions.

Both methods have significant macroeconomic consequences. Raising interest rates can limit inflation by reducing demand for credit and curbing consumer spending and investment. However, it can also slow down economic growth, increase the cost of servicing the public debt and lead to recession. In turn, the reduction of public spending may lead to a drop in demand and a decrease in inflationary pressure, but at the same time it threatens to weaken economic growth and worsen the situation on the labour market. The ultimate effectiveness of each method depends on the structure of the economy and factors such as the level of debt, the degree of openness to international trade and the inflation expectations of consumers and businesses.

I have written about the sources of the high inflation that has occurred since 2021 in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic in the following article based on my research:

I have described the key aspects of the monetary policy pursued by central banks in recent years in the following article:

And what is your opinion on this topic?

What do you think about it?

Please reply,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

In my opinion, the development of artificial intelligence technologies and applications, including the use of AI machines, robots, AI chatbots, AI virtual robots and AI agents in various sectors of the economy, will probably have a major impact on future labour markets. As a result of the changes in the labour market caused by the development of AI applications, some human professions will become less important and some jobs will be lost, while new professions and jobs will be created for people who operate IT systems, machines, robots, chatbots, etc. equipped with artificial intelligence. equipped with artificial intelligence technology.

The coming era of artificial intelligence, referred to as the fifth technological revolution, Industry 5.0, will bring about profound changes in labour markets that require careful analysis and preparation. On the one hand, progressive automation driven by AI will inevitably lead to the elimination of many jobs, especially those based on routine and repetitive tasks, which may result in increased unemployment in certain sectors. On the other hand, the development of AI will open up new job opportunities, creating demand for specialists in fields such as AI engineering, data analysis and AI ethics. In addition, many existing jobs will be transformed and workers will need to acquire new skills to work effectively with intelligent systems. The key challenge will therefore be to adapt to these changes by investing in education and training that will enable workers to retrain and acquire the skills of the future. Research plays an invaluable role here, providing knowledge about trends in labour markets, identifying occupations at risk of automation and forecasting the demand for new skills, which will enable the development of effective adaptation strategies.

The research and observations I have conducted show that artificial intelligence technology has been developing rapidly in recent years and is finding new applications, with new opportunities and threats emerging. I have described the main determinants, including the potential opportunities and threats to the development of artificial intelligence technology, in my article below:

Please write what you think about this issue. Do you see more risks or opportunities associated with the development of artificial intelligence technologies?

And what is your opinion on this topic?

Please reply,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

In response to the unprecedented challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, both central banks and governments have taken a number of interventionist measures to mitigate the negative effects of the crisis, which, however, in the perspective of 2021-2023, caused significant repercussions for inflation and the country's economic stability. In some countries, a key element of these measures was the direct purchase of government bonds by the central bank and the financing of extensive aid programmes through the issuance of additional money, which resulted in a significant increase in the money supply. These interventions, although intended to protect jobs and support businesses, combined with global disruptions to supply chains and rising commodity prices, contributed to a sharp rise in inflation. In response to the growing inflationary pressure, central banks raised interest rates, which in turn slowed down economic growth and increased the cost of loans, destabilising the financial market. As a result, although the measures taken in 2020 were aimed at minimising the immediate effects of the crisis, their long-term consequences led to significant economic instability, which highlights the complexity and multidimensionality of crisis interventions.

I have written about the sources of the high inflation that has occurred since 2021 in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic in the following article based on my research:

I have described the key aspects of the monetary policy pursued by central banks in recent years in the following article:

And what is your opinion on this topic?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

In my opinion, uneven development, manifested in significant disparities between developed countries and the poorest countries, is one of the key challenges of the modern world. This inequality, which is caused by historical, political and economic factors, has a number of negative consequences, such as deepening inequality, increasing poverty, social tensions and conflicts. While citizens in rich countries enjoy a high standard of living, millions of people in the poorest countries struggle to meet their basic needs and have no access to education or healthcare. There are many reasons for this, ranging from a colonial past to unstable state institutions and unfavourable international trade conditions. The effects of uneven development are felt on many levels, from poverty and lack of prospects to migration and humanitarian crises. Solving this problem requires a comprehensive approach, including increased financial and technological assistance, knowledge transfer, support for economic development and building strong state institutions. Research plays a key role in this process, as it allows for a better understanding of the causes and consequences of uneven development and the development of effective strategies to overcome it.

And what is your opinion on this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Can globalisation, despite its many advantages, also lead to negative effects such as an increase in inequality between countries, job losses in developed countries and pressure on local cultures? What are the positive and negative effects of economic globalisation? To what extent can international trade wars, which are waged by raising barrier tariffs and imposing sanctions on the cross-border movement of goods, technologies, raw materials and other production factors, limit the scale of economic globalisation?

Numerous studies on this issue show that globalisation, although beneficial, also carries risks such as increased inequality, job losses and the erosion of local cultures. Corporations contribute to unemployment in developed countries and exploitation in developing countries by relocating production to countries with lower labour costs. Job losses are caused by relocating production abroad and cultural erosion by cultural homogenisation. Regulations, the protection of workers' rights, the promotion of local businesses and intercultural dialogue are needed. Research helps to understand and minimise the negative effects of globalisation. Globalisation has changed in character in recent years. Globalisation has changed significantly since the pandemic economic crisis of 2020. I have described these issues in the following publications.

I have summarised the main issues concerning the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets in the article below:

And what is your opinion on this matter?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

To what extent does the ageing of the population, especially in developed countries, lead to problems such as the burden on pension and health systems, labour shortages and changes in the social structure? How can this process, which is detrimental to the national economy, be slowed down? What are the solutions to increase the birth rate in society? Is financial support for large families a good solution to increase the birth rate as a social policy instrument?

The ageing of the population, especially in developed countries, is a demographic process that brings with it a number of challenges. Longer life expectancy and low birth rates lead to changes in the age structure of the population, with older people accounting for an increasing proportion. This phenomenon has far-reaching consequences, affecting the pension and healthcare systems as well as the labour market and social structure. The strain on pension and healthcare systems is due to the fact that a decreasing number of people of working age must finance benefits for a growing number of pensioners and people in need of care. This, in turn, puts pressure on the state budget and may lead to higher contributions, lower pensions or restricted access to medical services. The shortage of labour is another problem associated with an ageing population. Many sectors of the economy may experience a shortage of skilled workers, which will affect their competitiveness and ability to grow. Changes in the social structure are a natural consequence of the ageing process. The increasing proportion of older people affects intergenerational relationships, the consumer market and the demand for certain services. In order to meet the challenges of an ageing society, it is necessary to implement comprehensive solutions, such as reforming pension and healthcare systems, promoting active ageing, encouraging immigration and supporting families with children. In the country where I work, the Family 500 Plus programme was introduced a few years ago, now 800 Plus as a government programme of financial support from the state public finance system, a social programme that was supposed to contribute to an increase in fertility. However, after several years of the programme's operation, fertility has not increased. Only the scale of poverty in large families has decreased. Research plays an important role in solving the problem of an ageing society by providing the knowledge and analysis necessary to develop effective strategies.

I am researching this issue. I have described the research results in the following articles:

And what is your opinion on this matter?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please reply,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

From my research and observations, it is clear that high unemployment, especially among young people, and the lack of decent working conditions are pressing problems affecting many countries around the world. Unemployment means a lack of income, a feeling of helplessness and social exclusion, and a loss of faith in the future. The lack of decent working conditions, such as low wages and a lack of legal protection, forces people to take jobs that do not guarantee them a decent life. These problems have a negative impact on the economy, limiting the financial possibilities of the state and leading to an increase in social tensions. An effective solution requires investment in economic development, job creation, promotion of entrepreneurship and the fight against discrimination in the labour market. Research plays an important role in identifying the causes of unemployment and developing effective economic activation programmes.

And what is your opinion on this topic?

What do you think about this issue?

Please reply,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dear Researchers, Scientists, Friends,

Do trade wars that restrict international trade based on high tariffs help or rather harm the domestic economy and how does it affect economic globalisation?

In my opinion, trade wars, which involve the imposition of tariffs and other restrictions, have a complex impact on the economy. On the one hand, they can have short-term benefits, such as protecting domestic production and creating jobs. The increased competitiveness of domestic products and the relocation of production back to the country generate new jobs and increase employment. On the other hand, in the long term, they lead to price increases, a weakening of the purchasing power of money and an economic slowdown. Prohibitive tariffs increase the prices of imported goods, which translates into higher costs for consumers and companies. The increase in the prices of goods and services reduces the purchasing power of money, lowering the standard of living of citizens. Retaliatory measures by other countries lead to a reduction in exports and have a negative impact on the economy. Rising prices, reduced trade and the uncertainty associated with trade wars have a negative impact on investment and economic growth. In conclusion, trade wars are a double-edged sword, bringing short-term benefits but leading to negative consequences in the long term. The final outcome depends on many factors, such as the size of the economy, its integration into the global economy and the reaction of other countries. The decision to implement a policy of trade wars should be carefully considered, and it is more beneficial in the long term to strive for open international trade.

In the context of globalisation, prohibitive tariffs can weaken global supply chains, leading to increased production costs and reduced efficiency. Trade wars can also lead to the fragmentation of the global market and its division into smaller, isolated trading blocs, which limits the possibilities for the development of international trade. The uncertainty associated with trade wars has a negative impact on the flow of foreign investment, hindering economic development. In addition, trade wars can exacerbate geopolitical tensions between countries and lead to conflict. In conclusion, protectionism based on high tariffs has a negative impact on economic globalisation. In the short term, it may bring some benefits, but in the long term it leads to negative consequences such as rising prices, reduced purchasing power, slower economic growth and a weakening of global supply chains. The pursuit of free and rules-based international trade is key to ensuring stable and sustainable economic development in the era of globalisation. International cooperation, dialogue and negotiations are essential to resolve trade issues and avoid the negative consequences of trade wars.

My articles below are related to the above issues in some aspects:

I have described the main issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets in my article below:

I have described the key issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets in my article below:

I have described the issue of economic globalisation as an important factor in the systemic transformation of banking in Poland in the following article:

And what is your opinion on this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please reply,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

In a situation of double-digit and rising inflation, should the central bank continue to tighten monetary policy (raise interest rates) and the government also tighten fiscal policy (e.g. raise taxes and reduce non-investment spending) or should these policies be pursued differently?

Should both policies, i.e. monetary and fiscal, be conducted in a coordinated and targeted manner with the same objective, i.e. should they be focused on trying to reduce the level of inflation?

Does it make sense if, in such a situation, the central bank tightens monetary policy (raises interest rates) and the government eases fiscal policy (e.g. offers citizens further subsidies, grants, allowances, compensation, additional pensions by increasing the debt of the state finance system and/or by printing domestic money)?

I ask because this is the situation as of October 2021, in the country in which I operate. This is most likely due to the fact that the next general election is due to take place in a year's time and the current government is acting extremely populist.

What is your opinion on this?

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please reply,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

Greetings,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

I am in search of a coauthor for a research in macroeconomics, with an emphasis on time series or panel data methodologies

The current technological revolution, known as Industry 4.0, is determined by the development of the following technologies of advanced information processing: Big Data database technologies, cloud computing, machine learning, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, Business Intelligence and other advanced data mining technologies.

In connection with the above, I would like to ask you:

Is the process of conducting economic analyzes improved thanks to the development of information technology Industry 4.0?

For example, whether through the use of information technologies in analytical processes such as database technologies for collecting and processing, analyzing large data sets in Big Data database systems, in cloud computing, using the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, economic analyzes carried out on computerized platforms Business Intelligence - it is possible to effectively analyze much larger amounts of economic data concerning individual companies, their contractors and the economic, market and macroeconomic environment than before, ie a few years ago when these technologies were not used while carrying out economic, fundamental and financial, indicative analyzes e.t.c.?

I have described the issue much more extensively in the following articles:

And what is your opinion on this topic?

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please respond,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

I would like to invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Have you ever read this article?

Muñoz, Lucio, 2020. Sustainability thoughts 109: Linking perfect green market theory to the circular green economy, In: CEBEM-REDESMA Boletin, Año 14 Nº 7, La Paz, Bolivia.

Muñoz, Lucio, 2019. From Traditional Markets to Green Markets: A Look at Markets Under Perfect Green Market Competition, Weber Economics & Finance (ISSN:2449-1662), Vol. 7 (1) 2019, Article ID wef_253, 1147-1156

Muñoz, Lucio, 2017. If Going From Free Markets to Free Markets Is the Science Based Approach: What is Then the Model Structure, Price Structure, Choice Structure and the Knowledge Structure and Related Gaps of the 2012 Paradigm Shift From Perfect Traditional Market to Perfect Green Market Thinking?, In: International Journal of Research & Development Organisation(IJRDO), ISSN: 2455-6661, Vol. 3, Issue 1, January, Pp.70-90., India.

I am currently working on a research paper titled "The Relationship of Hyperinflation with Respect to Other Macroeconomic Variables in Four Countries: Argentina, Venezuela, Iran, and Zimbabwe."

The macroeconomic variables I am focusing on include:

However, I am facing significant challenges in sourcing reliable data for these variables due to the economic instability and limited data availability in these countries. After extensive online research, I have been unable to locate consistent and credible sources.

In a world of environmentally dirty markets, how we treat the pollution problem determines the nature of each market and its structure, which raises the question: Can you see the similarities and differences between Pollution production markets, Pollution reduction markets, and Pollution management markets?

Think about it, what do you think?

You read current ACADEMIC PAPERS on sustainability written like if the concept never existed before despite being available with just a simple RESEARCHGATE SEARCH OR ACADEMIA SEARCH OR GOOGLE SEARCH since before and after WCED 1987 called for moving away from business as usual. Ignoring the past to advance concepts as new is not consistent with Thomas Kuhn's paradigm evolution loop. And this raises the question, Is the current sustainability research agenda in support of business as usual based on academic tunneling?

I think Yes, what do you think?

When, at a macro level, society’s purchasing power declines rapidly, aggregate demand falls even faster, inflation rises, and unemployment increases, what does this indicate? Is it a sign of development and growth, or does it point to poverty incubation and a failure of the political economy?

From Crisis to Recovery: Tracing the Macroeconomic Trajectory of Bangladesh During the COVID-19 Pandemic

For collaboration, contact: redwan.stu@gmail.com, ahmedmustakim031@gmail.com

For collaboration, contact: redwan.stu@gmail.com, ahmedmustakim031@gmail.com

Please recommend the paper if its fit for you or as our inspirations. Follow me for future collaboration.

Regards

Kazi Redwan

Lead

Team Tech Wing

For instance if I want to include the variable "Number of IPOs" in the year of event, I can include it for the transactions where the event occurred but what should be the value for the transactions where the event did not occur and therefore are censored observations?

There are both optimistic and pessimistic factors in macroeconomic forecasts for the world economy over the long term. Depending on how they operate and which prevail, either more optimistic or more pessimistic scenarios are developed for the development of the projected economic situation realised in the future. In terms of optimistic factors, these include the use of new information technologies, Industry 4.0 and others, which, when implemented in companies and enterprises, allow for improved profitability of business processes, increased production scale, improved quality control systems and/or improved quality of product and service offerings, etc. Besides, the green transformation consisting in the development of renewable and emission-free energy sources and based on rapidly cheap green energy technologies and on generating savings in energy consumption contributes to economic efficiency and energy security. In addition, the development of sustainable economic processes, scaling up the sharing economy, improving waste separation systems, reusing recovered secondary raw materials, improving and scaling up industrial recycling, etc. will also generate savings in the consumption of raw materials and energy in the context of an efficient economy. In this way, savings will be generated that will allow for an increase in the scale of financial subsidies directed to special purpose funds supporting the development of pro-climate and pro-environmental economic ventures and the development of green economic sectors. Pessimistic factors, on the other hand, include the retreat of economic globalisation from the onset of the pandemic, the rise of economic isolationism, the prospect of deepening trade wars between the world's major economies, the introduction of prohibitive tariffs to protect domestic labour markets, the successive reduction in the scale of cross-border transfers of strategic raw materials, components, prefabricated products and technology, etc. The reduction in the scale of the international transfer of products and services, international trade also involving factors of production, strategic raw materials was already noticeable a few years before the coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19), and during the pandemic through disrupted chains of international supply and procurement logistics the scale of intermodal logistics, international trade decreased. It also resulted in the shortening of international supply and procurement logistics chains and the development of domestic industries supplying the necessary sub-assemblies and pre-fabricated components used in the production of various goods, products, mainly technological products composed of many sub-assemblies.

Such problems determining the deepening of trade wars and the backsliding of economic globalisation processes at the end of February 2022 are increased by a full-scale military war in Ukraine. This kind of war generates economic uncertainty, and uncertainty is an increase in the scale of economic risks that are difficult to measure, not easy to quantify, and holding back investment. In addition to military sectors, apart from companies producing weapons and equipment for the military, it is in many other sectors and industries of the economy that the aforementioned increase in uncertainty becomes a limiting factor for the development of investment and economic activity. On the other hand, when the war ends and the processes of reconstruction of Ukraine's economy begin, there will be a significant recovery of economic processes in some sectors of the economy, such as construction and heavy industry. However, it is unclear when the war will end. In addition to this, determinants contributing to the deepening downturn of the economy include continued elevated inflation at double-digit levels. In the context of high consumer inflation, the high proportion of core inflation determined by domestic factors is a matter of concern. In addition to this, there remains a high level of risk of further investment bank failures in a situation of falling stock market valuations of previously issued government bonds with fixed and significantly lower interest rates on new series of government bonds being issued than at present. Consequently, there is still a high level of uncertainty about the development of the economic situation in the financial markets, including the capital markets, the stock markets on which securities are priced.

In view of the above, I would like to address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please respond,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

I am looking for the source (online) of these indicators, like St. Louis FED & Kansas FED, with complex & mixed data from macroeconomy and finance.

I am interested particularly to Fin. Stress Indicators of the main commercial banks.

The purpose is to study the financial ecosystem of Quantitative Easing effects.

QE that appear as a new type of (global) strategic & systemic weapon e not only a complex set of economic measures.

.

.

-- Was the decision of Swiss National Bank on Euro/SwissFranc (€/CHF) rational or panic-like? .. https://www.researchgate.net/post/Was_the_decision_of_Swiss_National_Bank_on_Euro_SwissFranc_CHF_rational_or_panic-like

-- What was the real effect of the US Quantitative Easing (QE), on the value of the US dollar, Gold, BitCoin and Yuan-Renminbi crosses? .. https://www.researchgate.net/post/What_was_the_real_effect_of_the_US_Quantitative_Easing_QE_on_the_value_of_the_US_dollar_Gold_BitCoin_and_Yuan-Renminbi_crosses

-- There is a relation between Quantitative Easing (QE) and the recent systemic selloff? .. https://www.researchgate.net/post/There_is_a_relation_between_Quantitative_Easing_QE_and_the_recent_systemic_selloff

-- The Quantitative Easing (QE) Financial Ecosystem has Affected the OIL Price Evolutions in this Decade? .. https://www.researchgate.net/post/The_Quantitative_Easing_QE_Financial_Ecosystem_has_Affected_the_OIL_Price_Evolutions_in_this_Decade

-- Why BitCoin was born (searching for socio-financial causes)? .. https://www.researchgate.net/post/Why_BitCoin_was_born_searching_for_socio-financial_causes

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The Covid-19 pandemic contributed to the modification of globalization processes. The pandemic caused an increase in the scale of the processes of information globalization, technological globalization, etc., including, among other things, also affecting logistics processes and chains. Due to broken logistics chains, the scales of economic globalization processes have decreased. On the other hand, the scale of ecological globalization processes may have also increased. My research shows that globalization processes of different nature have been taking place in recent years. A distinction is made in this connection between economic globalization, information globalization, technological globalization, communication globalization, cultural globalization, mental globalization and ecological globalization, etc. Each of these globalizations generates various positive and negative aspects. In each of these globalizations, either positive or negative aspects prevail, specific aspects that may have already appeared at the genesis of certain globalization processes, or when globalization significantly increased its impact on the economies of individual countries, on the operation of certain corporations, on people and their awareness of the modern world, and so on. In recent years, for example, information globalization has been particularly strongly developed through the Internet. In recent years, the importance of communication globalization associated with the development of tourism has gained additional cognitive aspects in connection with, for example, the development of the Covid-19 pandemic. The acceleration of the development of internationally and globally operating corporations, which has been taking place for several decades, has increased the importance of economic globalization processes. Also, the removal of barriers to cross-border flows of goods, services, factors of production, financial capital are also counted among the key source factors of economic globalization. Globally operating investment banks and investment funds generate processes of financial globalization. With the growing global importance of a particular currency, monetary globalization is deepening. The development of the European Union is an example of simultaneously occurring different aspects of globalization processes. Increasing the scale of the share of tourism services in GDP in some countries increases the importance not only of communication globalization but also of cultural globalization, as people learn the values of other cultures, other communities, other countries, etc. Significant factors in such globalization processes also include the globalization of certain fields of art, such as filmmaking or certain specific works of art. Various aspects of globalization are developing, for example, online computer games played by people living in different parts of the globe. In this way, the overall social consciousness of the inhabitants of planet Earth is being globalized, and globalization of a mental nature is taking place. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the importance of the digitalization of economies increased, including the exchange of information, the continuation of educational processes in schools and universities, the implementation of professional activities, the performance of work in various professional positions through the Internet, i.e. in remote online form. These processes have increased the importance of information and technological globalization concerning ICT, Internet technologies, Industry 4.0 and their use in various branches and sectors of modern economies. If a particular framing, interpretation of a global problem such as the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic or environmental-ecological problems, including, for example, the global littering of the environment with plastic, the global nature of climate change, the progressive process of global warming, the need to develop international cooperation in the increasingly globalizing environmental policy, the implementation of the principles of sustainable development, etc., is spread, then the global significance of a particular idea is strengthened. In such a situation, specific examples of mental globalization are included in the research. In view of the above, an objective assessment of a holistic, comprehensive, integrated view of globalization processes is not easy. In order to increase the accuracy and objectivity of this type of assessment it would be necessary to take into account many, thousands of factors of various globalization processes and, taking into account their importance, relative level of significance, variability over time, etc., conduct this type of analysis using a complex, multi-faceted analytical model and advanced IT data processing technology, for example, using Big Data Analytics technology. By using this type of analytical approach, it is much easier to undertake analysis and evaluation of a certain type of globalization processes, i.e., for example, economic globalization, information globalization, technological globalization, communication globalization, cultural globalization, mental globalization, environmental globalization, etc. The research also shows that the impact of globalization on society and the environment can be large. During the Covid-19 pandemic, international, including intermodal logistics chains were temporarily interrupted is some production processes may be transferred to other countries. This led to a situation where multinational corporations that had divided their production processes in previous years into stages carried out in plants and factories located in other countries now, due to supply logistics problems, may return to the concept of concentrating the entire production processes in the same countries, in the countries of the company's headquarters or in countries that are much shorter distances away. It has happened that many factories have returned from developing countries to developed countries despite slightly or significantly higher production costs. In this way, the risk of sourcing, procurement logistics, etc. was greatly reduced. If such internationally happening economic processes are also realized in the years to come, then the retreat of economic globalization processes will deepen. Besides, also between the issues of ecology, sustainable development, climate change, the process of global warming, etc. and globalization can also be diagnosed many correlations. The promotion of the idea of sustainable pro-ecological development principles, including the implementation of ecological innovations into economic processes, should be an important factor in the current information globalization carried out through various media, including online media and social media. More and more institutions promoting the principles of sustainable pro-ecological economic development are operating beyond national borders. The development of international cooperation for greater and more effective integration of political, business and social activities in implementing the principles of sustainable pro-ecological economic development, spreading the concept of green closed-loop economy, introducing ecological innovations, including reforming the energy sector and developing renewable energy sources, developing electromobility, improving waste segregation, developing recycling is insufficient, is too small. Therefore, the transfer of technology and innovation, including ecological innovation between countries should be improved and developed. In order to increase the global scale of implementation of ecological innovations into economic processes, it is necessary to improve the logistics of international transfer of ecological technologies. In my opinion, environmental policy should be internationally synchronized. There should be greater compatibility and supra-national cooperation on the implementation of ecological innovations into economic processes, pro-ecological reforms in the energy sector, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and improvement of recycling processes, waste segregation and reclamation of areas of the natural environment degraded by industrial development. Supra-national institutions such as the UN, the World Bank, etc., should be given greater importance in coordinating the solution of global problems such as the ongoing process of global warming. In view of the above, globalization processes have a large multifaceted impact on society and the environment. In view of the above, the Covid-19 pandemic has set back some issues of globalization processes and the development of deglobalization processes. Therefore, now a fully legitimate research question may be the issue of resolving whether, after the pandemic, again the processes of globalization, including economic globalization began to develop and return to the state before the pandemic, or vice versa, i.e. whether the processes of deglobalization continue to dominate and perhaps deepen? What are your thoughts on this issue? I invite you to discuss this topic and to cooperate with me in research.

I am conducting research on this issue. I have included the conclusions of my research in the following article (top cited in my scientific publication):

For the purposes of this discussion, I also provide a link to an article of my co-authorship on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the processes of globalization and the development of deglobalization processes:

IMPACT OF THE SARS-COV-2 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON GLOBALIZATION PROCESSES

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

The research I am conducting shows that the recent economic and financial crises, including the global financial crisis of 2008, the pandemic economic crisis of 2020, the strong increase in inflation in 2021-2022, the energy crisis of 2022, the recession of the economy of the first half of 2023 are the result of overdeveloped state interventionism, the manual control of monetary and fiscal policy and the deregulation of financial markets. From the research I conduct in the problem of the sources of economic, financial and other crises, it follows that strongly developed economic state interventionism is usually undertaken as an anti-crisis and/or pro-development measure aimed at reducing the scale, level and probability of occurrence of financial, economic crises, etc., but, on the other hand, often the mentioned interventionist activity of the government leads to an escalation of risk levels and generates the mentioned crises. Recent years of the Polish economy have been a series of economic crises generated by various factors but also by the government. In 2020, the government, through the introduction of lockdowns and national quarantines, generated a deep recession in the economy, then through the introduction of a large amount of printed money into the economy without coverage in the products and services produced, an increase in inflation was generated from 2021, a particularly deep energy crisis in Poland in 2022 (due to the blocking of the green transformation of the energy sector), an increase in interest rates by the NBP, a decline in investment and a downturn in the economy in 2022 and 2023, up to another recession in the economy in the 1st half of 2023. During the previous years, thanks to the applied chaotic economic policy of the government and monetary policy of the NBP in Poland, one crisis was replaced by another, and so on. And SME companies and enterprises lost a lot thanks to these crises, which were largely generated in previous years thanks to the applied, chaotically conducted, ad hoc, non-strategic, etc. economic policy of the government and monetary policy of the NBP central bank. In 2023, the scale of bankruptcies of companies and enterprises in the SME sector in Poland was the highest for many years. It is therefore necessary to continue research in the problems of the role and importance of economic state interventionism in the context of changes in the rate of economic growth and economic development, and to develop the most appropriate system solutions, economic programs, instruments for activating economic activity, activating innovation, counteracting the development of crises and implementing solutions that will result in increasing the macroeconomic stability of the economy with simultaneous sustainable economic development, including taking into account the implementation of the objectives of sustainable development, the principles of the green economy and closed-loop economy, sustainable and zero-carbon economy.

I am researching this issue. I have published the results of my research in several publications, including the following chapters in a monograph:

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

These days policy coordination is becoming necesssary on different front. In India also it is the same case. Monetary and Fiscal policy interface is important in order to address the macroeconomics issues.

In recent years, the development of digitization and Internetization of the economy has accelerated. These processes in particular Digitization and Internetization of the economy are now occurring simultaneously in many areas of economic processes, in the functioning of business entities and public, financial and other institutions operating in economies that are increasingly becoming knowledge-based economies. The Covid-19 pandemic has further accelerated the processes of digitization and Internetization of the economy. More and more companies and enterprises operating in various industries and sectors of the economy are expanding their operations via the Internet, remotely providing their services and selling their products through e-commerce.

The development of information processing technologies in the era of the current Fourth Technological Revolution is determined by the development and growth of the applications of ICT, Internet technologies and advanced data processing technologies Industry 4.0. The current technological revolution associated with the concept of Industry 4. 0 is motivated by the development of such technologies as: Big Data Analytics, Data Science, cloud computing, machine learning, multi-layer artificial neural networks-based deep learning, generative artificial intelligence, personal and industrial Internet of Things, Business Intelligence analytics, autonomous robots, horizontal and vertical data system integration, multi-criteria simulation models, digital twins, Blockchain, smart technologies, cyber security instruments, augmented and virtual reality, and other technologies for advanced multi-criteria processing of large sets of data and information.

The processes of digitalization and Internetization of the economy are determined by “upstream” processes, i.e., those inspired by public institutions, including computerization, Internetization of public offices, and “downstream” determinants, i.e., e.g., the growth of e-commerce, the increase in the share of transactions and payments made electronically via the Internet, the development of Internet banking and the shift of a significant part of business in many companies to remote service conducted via the Internet.

In the future, due to the development of applications of Industry 4.0 technologies, including the ever-improving generative artificial intelligence, the employment of people in certain types of professions, occupations in certain industries and sectors of the economy may significantly decline. It is likely that significant declines in employment in some branches and sectors of the knowledge economy will occur in the next few years. There are many indications that in a few years the scale of applications of generative artificial intelligence in various areas of production processes and services provided will increase strongly. On the other hand, the development of applications of constantly improving generative artificial intelligence and other Industry 4.0 technologies will also create new jobs in analytical and research fields. However, just a few years ago, the prevailing thesis was that the scale of job losses would be much greater than the new jobs being created. In a period of rapid technological advances in recent years in the development of generative artificial intelligence technology and its applications, the emerging new jobs in which generative AI technologies are used is the aforementioned thesis begins to lose its relevance. In this regard, it is not out of the question that the number of new jobs and professions being created may fully manage the potentially emerging gap of lack of employment generated by AI technology replacing human labor. Regardless of the nature of the changes in labor markets that will result from the implementation of new Industry 4.0 technologies into various fields of business activities of companies and enterprises, it is certain that the impact on labor markets will be significant and substantial in the years to come.

I have described the key issues of opportunities and threats to the development of artificial intelligence technologies in my article below:

OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPLICATIONS AND THE NEED FOR NORMATIVE REGULATION OF THIS DEVELOPMENT

And the applications of Big Data technologies in sentiment analysis, business analytics and risk management were described in my co-authored article:

APPLICATION OF DATA BASE SYSTEMS BIG DATA AND BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SOFTWARE IN INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIZATION

I invite you to familiarize yourself with the issues described in the publications given above, and to scientific cooperation in these issues.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

And what is your opinion on this topic?

What do you think about this topic?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Fisher studied if there is an out-of-equilibrium process that rapidly converges to some equilibrium points. He claims that Hahn process has a Lyapounof function and therefore convergent to an equilibrium. How can we understand Fisher's result with Saari and Simon (1978) Effective price mechanisms, Econometrica 46(5), 1097-1125, which claims there is no effective method of calculation that leads to an equilibrium?

What were the key priorities and effects of using state financial aid programs under the so-called anti-crisis interventionist activities financed with additional extra-budgetary money introduced into the economy through covid programs and earmarked funds?

What were the different purposes of financing specific anti-crisis measures that were identified as priorities during the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic?

What anti-crisis economic processes were activated by the extra-budgetary introduction of a large amount of additional money into the economy, which resulted, among others, in a significant increase in inflation (from 2021) and an increase in the hidden debt of the state's public finance system (from 2020)? What are the economic effects if the extra money finances mainly an increase in consumption compared to an increase in investment?

He hereby proposes a discussion on the issue of extra-budgetary introduction of additional money into the economy as part of government covid programs and funds, financing specific goals recognized as priorities of anti-crisis measures and the level of debt of the state's public finance system. In the country where I operate under the so-called covid funds, well over PLN 200 billion of additional money was introduced into the economy off-budget, which did not have parity in the goods and services produced. This was no exception to the anti-crisis measures of economic state interventionism used during the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic. As part of these anti-crisis measures of economic state interventionism, various financial support programs were used in individual countries, differing in their functionality and impact on the macroeconomics of the national economy. In some countries, such as Poland, the effects were mainly pro-inflationary and generated mainly by an increase in consumption. In Poland, the simplest solutions of this kind have generated a particularly high level of core inflation and a high level of loss of purchasing power of money that citizens receive in salaries, even taking into account the wage increases for employed employees applied by entrepreneurs. The anti-crisis measures of state economic interventionism implemented in Poland during the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic in the formula of mainly government programs, the so-called Anti-Crisis Shields consisting mainly in the transfer of public financial aid to commercially operating business entities, under which the largest amount of money from the public finance system was allocated by the government to non-repayable subsidies transferred to companies and enterprises in the form of subsidies to employees' salaries and refinancing fixed costs of business activity. The purpose of this type of the simplest and most primitive anti-crisis solution was to limit the scale of employment reduction and the scale of bankruptcy of business entities caused by scientifically unjustified, large-scale lockdowns imposed on selected sectors of the economy and the so-called. national quarantines. Unfortunately, the real level of unemployment was still growing during the pandemic, despite the fact that the statistics of the Central Statistical Office did not show it, because a significant part of entrepreneurs, in order to receive the aforementioned non-repayable subsidies, reduced the employment of employees from e.g. full-time to part-time. In addition, this type of anti-crisis measures of economic state intervention, applied in the simplest and most primitive formula, did not motivate companies and enterprises to implement pro-development investments. However, in some other countries, the mechanism of the applied anti-crisis actions of state economic interventionism was much more investment and pro-development, and even pro-climate and pro-environmental. For example, in the most economically and technologically developed countries of Europe, such as in Germany, the anti-crisis measures of economic state interventionism used during the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic had to a large extent precisely this type of investment, pro-development, pro-climate and pro-environmental character . In Poland, this extra money was only unproductively consumed and generated a restoration of consumption to pre-coronavirus levels and an increase in inflation from 2021. In Germany, additional money was allocated to investments, in addition to green investments, i.e. the implementation of the key anti-crisis assumption, Keynesian state interventionism, taking into account the issue of achieving sustainable development goals, accelerating the processes of green transformation of the economy, i.e. pragmatic, pro-social and at the same time pro-climate and pro-environmental measures were applied approach in the field of anti-crisis and pro-development activities. In Poland, however, the additional, printed, anti-crisis money introduced into the economy as part of off-budget Covid funds was consumed, generated another wave of economic downturn resulting from growing inflation, and contributed to an increase in the real debt of the public finance system, although hidden from the above-mentioned prudential indicators. In addition, due to the government slowing down the process of green transformation of the energy sector in recent years, more than 3/4 of electricity and heat in Poland is still generated from dirty combustion power generation based on the combustion of hard coal and lignite, which resulted in a crisis that was particularly costly for Polish citizens energy in 2022. Therefore, the anti-crisis socio-economic policy programs applied in individual countries during the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic were significantly diversified in many respects, including issues recognized by governments as priorities and key investment objectives financed with additional anti-crisis extra-budgetary money introduced into economy. In some countries, it was noticed that during the pandemic there is a possibility of accelerating the processes of pro-environmental, pro-climate, green transformation of the economy and this opportunity was taken advantage of. On the other hand, unfortunately, there are still countries, including EU Member States, such as Poland, in which the priorities of the anti-crisis, monetarist, historically large-scale economic state interventionism completely ignored the issue of emerging opportunities, including the financial possibilities of accelerating the processes pro-environmental, pro-climate, green transformation of the economy.

In view of the above, I am addressing the Honorable Community of scientists and researchers with the following question: What were the different purposes of financing specific anti-crisis measures that were identified as priorities during the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic? What anti-crisis economic processes were activated by the extra-budgetary introduction of a large amount of additional money into the economy, which resulted, among others, in a significant increase in inflation (from 2021) and an increase in the hidden debt of the state's public finance system (from 2020)? What are the economic effects if the extra money finances mainly an increase in consumption compared to an increase in investment? What were the key priorities and effects of applying public financial aid programs under the so-called anti-crisis interventionist activities financed with additional extra-budgetary money introduced into the economy through covid programs and earmarked funds? What were the various investment objectives financed by the additional off-budget money introduced into the economy since the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic?

What is your opinion on this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please reply,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

The above text is fully my original work written by me on the basis of my research. In writing this text, I did not use any other sources or automatic text generation systems, such as ChatGPT. Copyright by Dariusz Prokopowicz

best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

As the indebtedness of the state's public finance system has increased in many countries in recent years, it is increasingly important to consider what categories of risks this may lead to. The increase in the indebtedness of the system of state public finances has occurred mainly in connection with, on the one hand, objective factors such as the occurrence of financial and economic crises that are difficult to predict in advance, and, on the other hand, is the result of misguided economic policies, mistakes made in the framework of the management of the system of state public finances, the formation of the central budgets of the state and/or the financial budgets of local government units, the budgets of state public institutions, etc. Mistakes made in the framework of the formation of fiscal policy are due to, among other things, the mismatch of the expenditure side with the revenue side of the state budget and the specific structure of budget expenditures and receipts. On the other hand, the extent to which the mistakes made will manifest themselves and generate problems in public finances and the financial risks resulting therefrom is also largely likely to result from the economic and financial crises that are appearing with increasing frequency. Over the past few decades of time, the frequency and scale of emerging economic, financial, energy and other crises have been steadily increasing. The financial crisis of the late 20th century generated by the overvaluation and stock market crash of Internet dotcom stocks. Then the global financial crisis of 2008 derived from overly lax monetary policies, overly relaxed mortgage lending policies and moral gambling by financial institutions involved in the process of financing these loans carried out mainly through the issuance and sale of subprime bonds. After a little more than a decade, a pandemic economic crisis emerges in 2020, which is originally derived from the occurrence of panic in the capital markets, when the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020 declares the Covid-19 pandemic state and then the economic crisis and recession of the economy is aggravated by the introduced lockdowns imposed on economic entities operating in selected, service sectors of the economy and the so-called national quarantines also introduced in some countries. During the Covid-19 pandemic in some countries, in order to limit the scale of the increase in unemployment, historically record amounts of added money were introduced into the economy, which is described as a kind of interventionist financial anti-crisis measure. However, the inevitable result of this kind of ultra-lenient fiscal policy and at the same time the relaxed monetary policy also applied at the time with interest rates lowered by central banks was a strong increase in inflation. The increase in inflation caused an increase in the cost of economic activity and a decrease in the economic process activity of companies and enterprises. Then anti-inflationary central banks raised interest rates. The result was an increase in the cost of borrowed money in loans, advances and Treasury debt securities. This then generated a significant decline in the level of investment in many sectors of the economy, a process that worked most rapidly and on the largest scale in the cyclical sectors, i.e., the housing sector, for example. The decline in investment in the housing sector was also associated with a decline in the creditworthiness of potential borrowers interested in buying an apartment or house on credit. In 2022, there was an energy crisis, which was initially inspired by the outbreak of war in Ukraine and then by a strong increase in energy commodity prices. The energy crisis was particularly profound in those countries where, as in Poland, for example, the processes of green energy transition were carried out on a limited scale resulting in energy generation still from conventional combustion energy based on burning fossil fuels, mainly coal and/or lignite. The result of the economic crises of 2020-2022 was the occurrence of economic recession in a large part of the countries in the first half of 2023. During all these crises, many countries anti-crisis increased spending from the state's public finance system, and this despite the decline in tax revenues to the state budget. Thus, the obvious result of these processes and anti-crisis state financial interventionism was an increase in debt in the public finance systems of many countries. By 2024, in some countries, inflation had fallen around the inflation target and the rate of economic growth began to slowly recover from crisis and recessionary levels. However, the level of debt growth in a country's public finance system has been particularly high during this period, and it will probably take many years to reduce this level of debt to a level considered safe on an indicator basis (3 percent budget deficit to GDP and 50 percent public debt to GDP) even with certain restrictive fiscal policies and tightening monetary policy. The key issue of the problem of the growth of the debt of the public finance system of the state is that it is not a current problem, but, first of all, it is a prospective problem, the scale of which will grow in the future over the next decades of time, and not only in underdeveloped and developing countries but also in highly developed countries. The reason is the progressive process of changes in the demographic structure of society commonly referred to as population aging. Therefore, in the future, the scale of the risk of an increase in the indebtedness of the system of public finances of the state, the occurrence of a debt crisis of public finances and the deconstructive action of this process will unfortunately increase.

I have also described many of these above-mentioned aspects in my publications posted on my profile of this Research Gate portal.

I am researching this issue. I have published the results of my research in several publications, including the following chapters in a monograph:

“Recent economic crises and the prospective climate crisis of the 21st century and the green transformation of the economy” (Recent economic crises and the prospective climate crisis of the 21st century and the green transformation of the economy).

“Economic and financial crises in the 21st century and the anti-crisis state interventionism that prevents them” (Economic and financial crises in the 21st century and the anti-crisis state interventionism that prevents them)

The key issues of the problematic sources of Poland's exceptionally deep energy cross in 2022 are described in my co-authored article below:

POLAND'S 2022 ENERGY CRISIS AS A RESULT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND YEARS OF NEGLECT TO CARRY OUT A GREEN TRANSFORMATION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR

I described the issue of the importance of activating entrepreneurship and innovation of business entities for economic development in the article:

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Thank you,

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Since 1987 WCED report "Our Common Future" pollution has been increasing, not decreasing, as no pollution reduction markets have been set up yet to transition towards pollution-less markets, which raises the question: Why should we expect pollution management markets to lead us increasingly away and away from pollution-less markets?.

Any ideas to the why?

Note: If you understand the difference between how pollution management markets and pollution reduction markets in terms of pollution-less market transition friendliness work, you may be able to see why.

Most in researchgate may be familiar with concepts like golden paradigms and flawed paradigm and paradigm evolution, but what about the idea that links them all, which may lead to or be behind distorted knowledge based policy action.

And this makes the following question interesting based on a new term: What is a golden trojan paradigm?

What do you think? Why?

I am applying these tests in a situation where I am not sure about  the Variable's (Y & X) exogeneity or endogeneity in the VAR system (even studying theory). To find out the initial information about which on variable is endogenous or exogenous at what degree?  I have applied both IMF and VD (to measure the fluctuations in the dependent variable for current & future periods given by one positive SD Shock to the error term of the equation & to measure the variation explained (in %age) in the dependent variable for current & future periods, given by one positive SD shock  to the error term of the equation one by one in both equations, respectively).Kindly, comment if in any case here is need to improve the current understanding.............. 

Inflation has become a major macroeconomic problem globally and has led to severe economic disconnect in most nations.

What macroeconomic variable(s) can best be used to proxy _economic disconnect_?

In my next papers I will focus on the fact that past development assumptions made affecting system stability have complicated policy correction and action in terms of system stability problems, like the assumption that market dynamics and population dynamics are independent factors affecting system stability.

What do you think?

By granting loans, commercial banks introduce credit money into the economy, which is significantly responsible for the level of liquidity and circulation of money between economic entities and, consequently, also in the economy as a whole. Consumer and installment loans granted to citizens significantly activate the scale of consumer purchases and thus increase the level of consumption. Increased levels of consumption by increasing consumer demand in the long term can generate an increase in the scale of investment demand. If the increase in the scale of consumer demand is more permanent and long-term in nature, i.e. it is not, for example, the effect of annual seasonality, e.g. in the pre-Christmas period, then it results in an increase in the level of scale of production or service offerings of products or services for which demand is increasing. In a situation where entrepreneurs find that the said upward trend is permanent then they increase the scale of investment to create additional plants, production lines, manufacturing parks, the use of additional durable production factors, etc., to increase the scale of production potential, so that they can produce more of a certain range of goods. On the other hand, when the availability of business loans, including working capital loans and overdrafts granted to businesses for short-term purposes, to cover liquidity gaps, pay current bills and facts arising from the continuation of business operations also increases, the scale of financial security of the business operations of companies and enterprises increases.

When the availability of economic investment loans also increases then the scale of investment in the manufacturing processes developed by business entities, improved logistics of production or generation of services, increasing production capacity, involvement of new technology in manufacturing processes, purchase of additional machinery and equipment as part of the expansion of production processes, improvement of the quality of product and service offerings, development of commodity-directed offerings, increasing the scale of diversification of product and service offerings, acquisition of new markets, etc., increases. When this process involves the credit offers of many commercial banks cooperating with many companies and enterprises, then the increase in the scale of lending translates into a significant level of increase in the activity of business entities operating in the economy and becomes one of the key factors in improving the economy's prosperity, accelerating the rate of economic growth, which is particularly important when the aforementioned level of economic activity of companies and enterprises is low and at the same time the prosperity of the economy as a whole is not optimal. Therefore, when the economy is in crisis, the level of consumption and investment is low then, in order to activate economic processes, the government, as part of its anti-crisis and/or pro-development economic policy under an informal agreement with the central bank, launches certain state interventionist measures, which should result in an increase in the activity of economic processes that are realized in companies and enterprises. The central bank can then lower interest rates, resulting in a decrease in the oproc. of various types of loans on offer by commercial banks. In addition, the drop in oproc. of bank deposits and treasury bonds also activates economic entities to invest their financial surpluses in speculative investment risk financial instruments, i.e. in stocks, corporate bonds and derivatives.

On the other hand, it is also a motivating factor for companies and enterprises to decide on further investment projects, to increase the scale of investments and reduce the level of reserves. Cheaper credit contributes to an increase in its availability, to an increase in the level of creditworthiness of citizens and business entities. In addition, in a situation where there is an improvement in the economic situation in many sectors and industries of the economy, commercial banks can also additionally relax their credit policy and increase the availability of credit, for example, by reducing the scale of procedural steps, the amount of documents and information required from the potential borrower necessary for the analysis of creditworthiness, etc. More readily available loans encourage borrowing by citizens and business entities. In this way, a kind of synergy of cheapening credit, increasing scale of liquidity between cooperating financial improvement, acceptance of higher levels of investment risk, revival of economic processes, improvement of prosperity simultaneously in many sectors and industries of the economy, easing of credit policies in commercial banks, improvement of repayment of bank loans, improvement of the quality of banks' loan portfolios, etc., works. In principle, as long as the aforementioned all factors of the aforementioned synergy work then the process of increasing commercial bank lending, activating the level of economic activity, improving economic prosperity in the economy, increasing employment, increasing income, investment, consumption, increasing liquidity and circulation of money in the economy, etc. can continue to work without leading to an increase in the scale of the risk of the appearance of reverse processes, a rapid downturn in the economy, an increase in the scale of insolvency of many companies and enterprises, a significant increase in the scale of bankruptcy of economic entities, the occurrence of a banking, financial and/or economic crisis. The aforementioned synergistic process, in which a high level of credit actions and good quality of granted loans is correlated with good economic prosperity, may act without generating crisis factors, without causing over-investment, over-credit levels of both consumption and investment, as long as the level of credit risk, which commercial banks accept when granting further bank loans, does not increase.

On the other hand, the aforementioned process of many interrelated factors typical of an upturn in the economy can also continue to work if commercial banks reliably carry out credit procedures, do not overly relax their credit policy, carry out creditworthiness analyses of potential borrowers in accordance with the guidelines of the methodology, carry out ongoing monitoring of loans granted, do not neglect credit risk management processes. Unfortunately, such situations when commercial banks applied credit policies too leniently and carried out credit risk management processes not fully reliably occurred in the past. In such situations, excessively increased levels of lending and credit for investment processes carried out by business entities acting as borrowers became important source factors for emerging financial and economic crises. This kind of situation occurred earlier at the beginning of the current 21st century on a large scale and led to the occurrence of a global financial crisis in 2007-2009, which in many countries also turned into an economic crisis and in some countries, such as the countries of Southern Europe, also to a crisis in the system of state finances due to a significant increase in the debt of the system of state public finances. However, before this kind of situation can occur and when the level of economic activity of companies and enterprises is low, the level of unemployment is high, the level of income of citizens and financial revenues to the state budget from payments made by many entities operating in the economy is low, then political pressure grows for the activation of anti-crisis and pro-development interventionist measures available under the government's economic policy.

The above-mentioned economic processes realized within the framework of the improving economy generated, among other things, by lowering interest rates and increasing the availability of bank loans, increasing lending, increasing the scale of investment generates an improvement in the functioning, state of finances, achievement of business objectives in companies and enterprises operating in various industries and sectors of the economy. The magnitude of such cyclical economic processes, for example, is particularly high in the cyclical sectors of the economy, i.e. those whose economic processes taking place are strongly correlated with analogous processes taking place in the economy as a whole. The conjunctural sectors include, among others, the construction sector, including the construction of housing estates. On the other hand, regardless of the conjuncture of the economy as a whole, what happens in the housing development construction sector can to a large extent be modeled by interventionist actions of the government as part of its housing policy. In a situation where the government deems it necessary to stimulate economic prosperity in this sector, which should also result in an increase in the scale of new housing directed for sale, the instrument of public financial assistance applied to stimulate a selected element of the process of either the construction of housing estates, the process of selling built houses and apartments, support for the process of lending for the purchase of real estate, including, for example, the application of subsidies to loan installments repaid, the bank's required own share in financing the purchase of real estate or other types of financial support may be applied. In a situation where, thanks to the application of public financial support, the scale of construction investments is increasing, more housing estates are being built then the demand for raw materials, components and construction materials, as well as housing interior decoration items, including furniture, sanitary equipment, household appliances, etc., is also increasing. As a result, the scale of production at the factories of the manufacturers of the aforementioned various types of building materials and interior furnishings increases, the scale of production at component suppliers, co-ops, etc. increases. Employment in many companies and enterprises operating in the environment of the construction sector is growing. The incomes of a significant part of the population, i.e. people employed in the aforementioned companies and enterprises, are rising. Consequently, the economy as a whole is also improving. Therefore, in a situation where the level of activity of economic processes was significantly declining, the level of prosperity in the economy was low, unemployment was high and tax revenues to the state budget were low, and at the same time there was a shortage of housing for some citizens, then the government, using active housing policy, tried to improve the aforementioned prosperity in the economy.

At the beginning of the current twenty-first century in the United States, the housing sector was also recognized as one that should be activated in order to improve the economy. However, the applied solutions of extreme relaxation of credit policies for granting mortgages to the public, including borrowers with no real creditworthiness, with other previous outstanding loans, credit cards, without steady employment, a regular source of income, etc., the use of specially created derivatives in the form of subprime bonds to raise additional funds to continue to carry out lending in a situation of steadily rising real estate prices, the insurance of most mortgages by a single insurance company, the maintenance of record low interest rates by the central bank..., in spite of rising real estate prices, deteriorating labor markets, the still growing highly overvalued valuations of securities on stock exchanges, some commercial and investment banks losing liquidity, worsening financial problems in many companies and enterprises operating in non-financial sectors, unethical practices by brokerage firms in the sale to investors of financial instruments linked to the issue of financing the ongoing credit actions, the issuance of factually incorrect recommendations by rating agencies, ratings for subprime bonds sold to other banks, etc. led to a situation where credit institutions accepted excessive levels of credit risk. In addition, banking procedures for credit risk management processes were also unreliably implemented. All of the above-mentioned factors generated a strong increase in credit risk levels and led to the global financial crisis of 2007-2009.

On more than one occasion, in order to activate the boom in the construction sector, the government, as part of its public financial assistance, used the support instrument of subsidizing mortgage loan installments paid by borrowers to banks. This type of solution has been applied since July 2023 in Poland. The program of subsidizing mortgage installments from the sources of the state's public finance system was organized in such a way that, under the so-called "2% safe loan" program, the state subsidized loan installments in such an amount that, for the borrower, the remaining part of the loan installment paid to the bank corresponds only to the interest rate of the loan at 2%. This program in such a solution is to operate in terms of mortgage loans launched under this program for 10 years. After 10 years, the borrower is to repay the remaining portion of the loan at the market oproc. level set by the lending bank. Over the following years, both inflation and interest rates should continue to fall from their current still-high levels. Therefore, in the following years, the scale of committed funds from the state's public finance system, which will be used for the aforementioned subsidizing of loan installments, should therefore gradually decrease in connection with the projected decline in interest rates determined by the Monetary Policy Council, which operates at the central bank in Poland, i.e. the National Bank of Poland. On the other hand, however, the scale of committed funds from the state's public finance system may be higher in the following year 2024 compared to 2023 if the program is extended and its scale is increased. However, as the scale of commercial banks' mortgage lending has increased strongly since mid-2023 in connection with the launch of the "2% Safe Loan" program, and has reached levels previously recorded only during periods of exceptionally good housing market conditions such as. just before the onset of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, developers directed to the market the majority of the number of completed construction projects, a greater number of housing developments built, including apartments with areas complying with the specified guidelines of the aforementioned program, and market interest rates are several times higher than 2 percent, then both the level of lending increased strongly in the second half of 2023 and the number of housing purchase transactions also increased strongly. The aforementioned upward trends have generated a rapid level of growth in the price of new apartments sold by developers. As the level of citizens' interest in purchasing an apartment using the financial public assistance provided under the "2% Safe Credit" program exceeded the number of apartments completed by developers and targeted for sale, the result was a several percent increase in real estate prices in all major cities in Poland. The aforementioned increase in real estate prices was exceptionally fast, as the recorded increase in the average real estate price in Warsaw, for example, in the range of about 15 percent, took place in just four months from July to October 2023. Since the large increase in real estate prices and the high level of recovery in this market mainly benefited commercial banks selling mortgages and developers building housing developments, the housing policy implemented in this way is mainly to achieve medium-term goals of activating economic processes and not long-term social goals concerning the key issue which was to be increasing the availability of housing for citizens representing the middle class with an average income level. Due to the increase in real estate prices that took place over a period of several years, it was for citizens representing the middle class, mainly working young people, that the possibility of buying their own apartment became practically unattainable, because due to the level of income relative to real estate prices, the level of oproc. loans, the bank's required contribution to co-financing the purchase of real estate, etc., they were not creditworthy. They also couldn't get social housing since they work and earn income, and there are far too few rental apartments in the resources of local government units, and the PIS government's previously launched Mieszkanie Plus program has not been implemented, so middle-class citizens in recent years have become the social group that has been most excluded from the possibility of buying and owning their own apartment. In view of the above, in the context of the ongoing discussions about the possibility of extending the operation of the Safe Credit 2% program to 2024, a topical issue for consideration is the question of subsidizing mortgage installments by the state from the state's public finance system as an instrument for potentially increasing the availability of housing for citizens. Potentially, because in 2023, unfortunately, the key strategic social goals were not realized through the introduction of the program "Safe credit 2 percent."

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

And what is your opinion about it?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Among the important issues of the efficiency of the tax system's operation is the specific structure of the introduced various direct taxes, including mainly income and property taxes, and indirect taxes, including mainly VAT, excise taxes and tributes related to the import of certain products or services, customs duties and so on. In addition to this, the effectiveness of the tax system, which is determined by the level of tax revenues that feed the system of state public finances, i.e. revenues to the central state budget and revenues to the budgets of local government units, municipalities is the issue of the so-called tightness of the fiscal system, the effectiveness of the institution of the tax office and customs and fiscal control, the efficiency of the procedures for serving taxpayers' citizens by the institution of the tax office, the level of developed remote service to citizens via the Internet, the scale of digitization of the institutions of the tax system, etc. These issues determine the level of the emerging shadow economy, in which some citizens, entrepreneurs do not register their business activities in order to thus avoid the tax system, not to pay taxes. In many countries, receipts to the central state budget and to the local budgets of local government units account for most of the total financial receipts that feed the state's public finance system with money, which is then used by the government and local government authorities to provide citizens with public services and public goods. A larger scale of tax revenues means more money at the state's disposal and higher-quality provision of public services and/or more investment, which also produces durable economic goods within the framework of public goods. Accordingly, the Ministry of Finance should strive to improve procedures, legal norms, organizational systems, etc., so that the institutions of the tax system operate as efficiently as possible and so that as much tax money as possible enters the state's public finance system. However, this does not mean the need for frequent changes in the normatives of the law, frequent changes in the tax system, changes in the structure of taxes, changes in tax scales, their level determined for particular types of taxes imposed on certain types of economic entities. Citizens and entrepreneurs are unlikely to prefer frequently changing regulations of the tax system, tax law, tax accounting methods, etc. Frequent changes are burdensome for citizens and business entities. On the other hand, the technological advances taking place, the emerging new ICT and Industry 4.0/5.0 technologies are being implemented into information systems for remote data transfer and tax settlements carried out online. Such processes of digitization and Internetization of fiscal system institutions have been developing for many years. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the aforementioned digitization and internetization processes accelerated in some countries. At times, the digitization and Internetization of tax system institutions and information systems that enable remote transfer of tax data and online accounting also make it possible to increase the sealing of the tax system and reduce the level of the shadow economy. On the other hand, the increase in the scale of digitization and Internetization of the tax system, i.e. the increase in the scale of remote transfer of tax data and online tax settlement, also increases the risk of cyber-attacks on online tax settlement platforms. For several years now, cybercriminals have been constantly creating new cybercrime techniques, new types of viruses, including, for example, ransomware viruses spread in fake e-mails imitating the e-mail correspondence of tax authority institutions, new phishing techniques, etc. with the aim of stealing money or extorting ransom payments from a company successfully attacked by cybercriminals. In this regard, it is also necessary to increase spending on the permanent improvement of the information systems of tax system institutions. In terms of the generic structure of taxes, the tax scales applied, the level of tax assessments established against certain types of economic entities, it is the state's over-maximization of these issues that can lead to an increase in the shadow economy. According to the Philips curve, once a certain high level of established tax levels is exceeded, tax revenues, rather than increasing, will decrease due to an increase in the scale of the shadow economy. In such a situation, the tax system does not work efficiently. In addition, tax receipts feeding into the state's public finance system from year to year can change significantly regardless of the tax system itself, i.e. even when nothing is changed in this system. The reason for such changes in the level of tax revenues to the state budget is the issue of cyclicality of economic processes on a multi-year scale, the occurrence of business cycles, within which there can be significant differences in the rate of economic growth, the level of activity of economic processes, the economic activity of companies and enterprises, the level of entrepreneurship, and so on. On a multi-year scale, cyclical changes in the rate of economic growth are usually strongly correlated with changes in the level of entrepreneurship, production, offering of services, income, investment, spending, consumption, savings and also the situation in labor markets, i.e. the level of employment and unemployment. As some sectors of the economy are particularly cyclical, i.e. changes in the level of economic activity of companies and enterprises of a particular sector or branch of the economy are strongly correlated with changes in the rate of economic growth of the economy as a whole, so how the generic structure of taxes with which the aforementioned economic entities are burdened is designed is also important in determining cyclical changes in the level of tax revenues to the state's public finance system derived from changes in the rate of economic growth, changes in the level of Gross Domestic Product, multi-year business cycles. However, in the situation of taking into account all of the above-mentioned factors when designing certain new taxes and/or improving the tax system, i.e. in the situation of striving to create a financially efficient fiscal system, considerations also arise on the issue of social justice relating to the tax system. These considerations often include the search for possible correlations between the efficiency of the tax system and something that could be described as a socially just tax system. In my opinion, the question of the efficiency of the tax system can correlate to a significant degree with the question of a socially just tax system. However, this correlation need not always occur and not always in the same scale and dependence. The question of the scale and dependence of this correlation is determined by what is considered social justice in relation to the tax system, how a socially just tax system can be defined, and whether such social issues are taken into account at all when reconstructing the tax system.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

I have researched and described specific economic and social aspects relating to the tax system in the following article on the plan to introduce a banking tax in Poland:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Imaging a world under perfect red market thinking or under perfect socially friendly capitalism since 1776 had Adam Smith giving us that model then instead of the perfect traditional market, would that have created environmental sustainability problems too by 1987/WCED?

What do you think?

Yes, and why do you think so? No, and why do you think so?

Note:

This requires a little thinking outside the box

Are there new projects and studies considering recursive approaches, in energy transition and resources, being empirically tested with regression analysis and models?

1) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/373629748_The_Post-Eisenhower_and_Wagner_Effect

2)https://www.researchgate.net/publication/372341739_Fundamental_Theorem_of_Calculus_proved_by_Wagner's_Law

In recent years, the scale of the occurrence of serious economic and financial crises in some regions of the world and/or on a global scale has been intensifying. The scale of the appearance of certain types of economic, financial, energy, etc. crises has been increasing since the 1970s. The abolition of gold parity for the U.S. dollar, oil crises, deregulation and liberalization of the functioning of financial markets, increasing the active role of central banks in shaping monetary policies with the possibility of adding money injected into the economy through direct purchase of treasury bonds by the central bank, abolishing some of the previously introduced systemic prudential instruments used in credit risk management, increasing the scale of international operations of investment banks and investment funds making speculative transactions in foreign capital markets are just some of the sources of the increase in the scale and frequency of financial and economic crises since the 1970s. Some types of the aforementioned crises have appeared with increasing frequency and magnitude in the current 21st century. The day on September 15, 2008, when the world's fourth-largest investment bank Lehman Brothers went bankrupt was considered the beginning of the global financial crisis. This crisis was generated by, among other things, erroneously conducted overly lax monetary policies that were supposed to favor financial markets even when assets were overvalued in capital markets, overly liberalized credit policies in mortgage lending, disregarding safety standards in credit risk management and practicing moral gambling in investment banking, and so on. In 2020, there was a pandemic economic crisis, which initially developed through the Covid-19 pandemic to then be exacerbated by large-scale lockdowns imposed in some countries on economic entities operating in selected, certain industries, mainly service sectors of the economy, and the introduction of so-called national quarantines. In some countries, where, such as Poland, the development of the cheapest renewable energy sources was blocked and slowed down in 2022, when the price of fossil fuels rose strongly, a deep energy crisis occurred. Beginning in 2021, inflation began to rise rapidly in many countries, generated by pumping large amounts of printed money into the economies, whose task was to mitigate the scale of the recession generated by the lockdowns and national quarantines introduced repeatedly during the Covid-19 pandemic. In order to limit the growth of inflation, which, as in Poland, rose to double-digit levels, the central bank raised interest rates. The effect of such anti-inflationary measures was to reduce liquidity in the financial sector, increase the cost of borrowed money, make credit more expensive and reduce the scale of investment in many sectors of the economy. The result was a recession of the economy, which in many countries appeared in the 1st half of 2023. In view of the above, the misapplied measures of monetary and/or fiscal policy eased too much led to the generation of a financial and/or economic crisis. Subsequently, the anti-crisis instruments applied more than once led to the generation of another economic crisis. In addition, a climate and environmental crisis is also developing in the long term as a result of continued high greenhouse gas emissions, ignoring issues of protecting the planet's climate, biosphere and biodiversity, slowing down the development of renewable energy sources and implementing the green transformation plan for the economy on a limited scale. In view of the above, some crises like the pandemic economic crisis of 2020, among others, were generated by new factors like the Covid-19 pandemic, which could later be referred to as so-called “black swans” due to their uniqueness, atypicality and unexpected appearance by no one. On the other hand, the key root factors of some economic and financial crises include misguided state interventionism, errors in forecasting and analysis of the macroeconomic situation, misapplied pro-growth and/or anti-crisis instruments within the framework of certain economic, fiscal, budgetary, sectoral and monetary policies pursued by the government and conducted by the central bank. In view of the above, it is probably not possible to conduct economic, monetary, etc. policies without making mistakes. It is not possible to forecast all, future impact factors, determinants shaping the macroeconomic situation and potentially all events that may lead to further economic and/or financial crises in the future. However, it is possible to learn from past mistakes, and given this knowledge, a more sustainable, secure economy can be built, processes and instruments for managing credit risk and other categories of risk can be continuously improved, financial markets, including capital markets, commodity markets, securities markets can be systemically strengthened through prudent use of prudential instruments, not ignoring the principles of financial security, not practicing moral gambling in investment banking, and so on. Perhaps in the future, the next financial and economic crises that will occur will be the result of, on the one hand, still not adequately refined systemic prudential instruments, institutional financial security arrangements, credit risk management instruments, etc., and new factors and events that are difficult to forecast, which can probably later be called the next black swans. however, there are crises that we know will worsen in the future and/or will be the source of the occurrence of increasingly serious negative effects on the economy and humans. this kind of long-term crisis already in operation is the ever-developing and worsening climate crisis and, at the same time, the environmental crisis, which is associated with the process of rapid loss of biodiversity of the planet's natural ecosystems.

The key issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets are described in my article below:

IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY

IMPACT OF THE SARS-COV-2 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON GLOBALIZATION PROCESSES

The key issues of the problematic sources of Poland's exceptionally deep energy cross in 2022 are described in my co-authored article below:

POLAND'S 2022 ENERGY CRISIS AS A RESULT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND YEARS OF NEGLECT TO CARRY OUT A GREEN TRANSFORMATION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR

Zarzadzanie kryzysowe w przedsiebiorstwie opisałem w artykule:

CRISES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF BUSINESS ENTITIES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT

I described the key issues of opportunities and threats to the development of artificial intelligence technology in my article below:

Anti-crisis state intervention and created in media images of global financial crisis

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz