Macroeconomics - Science topic

Dear Lucio,

As you have more than once suggested to me that you prefer short answers, so this time I will answer briefly without arguing my reply at length. Well, in my view, if we are looking at the issue globally rather than regionally then, at least from the original premise, the decision to go green in 2012 and other similar such developments are unlikely to block the path of transition from a brown, unsustainable, combustion-based pollution economy to a clean, sustainable, green closed loop economy. However, problems arise when closely synonymous new concepts e.g. in the field of green, sustainable economy are defined and interpreted differently by different interest groups, by different stakeholders. In addition, these different interpretations are usually deliberate as a result of lobbying by certain interest groups operating in the business and/or political spheres, who are not interested in carrying out a pro-environmental transformation of the economy and developing a clean, sustainable, green circular economy.

Greetings,

Dariusz

Dear Lucio,

I too believe that what you have described as the nature of human population dynamics is dependent on the nature of the dynamics of the traditional market structure that serves them. Well, in the short term (months and quarters) it is citizens who adjust their functioning to seasonal changes in the level of production, income, purchases made etc. In the medium term (several to sometimes a dozen years), changes in the rate of economic growth that take place as part of business cycles translate into changes in citizens' income and consumption levels, and this then influences citizens' decisions to start a family and have children. On the other hand, in the longer term (from several years to several decades), the long-term economic processes, the changing sectoral and industry structure of the economy, the significantly changing level of economic development, production, income, etc., translate into significant changes in the living standards of citizens and the prevailing purchasing, housing and living standards. Subsequently, these significant changes in the economic processes taking place, in economic development, including the public products and services offered by the state (education, health care, public utilities, social assistance) and consequently also in the living standards of citizens largely determine the fertility rate, housing standards, the product and service structure of purchases made, the length of the average life expectancy of citizens, possibly also the process of population ageing and other changes in the social structure. Consequently, there are correlations between economic development and structural changes realised in the medium and long term in markets and economic sectors and changes in citizens' living standards, changes in consumption standards, living conditions, economic decisions made, fertility levels, citizens' life expectancy, social processes, etc.

Regards,

Dariusz

Cool.

Dear Lucio,

In my opinion, the economics of climate change and the economics of a perfect green market are reconcilable, but only in theory. I have described this in my articles. Unfortunately, from theory to reality is a very big gap in this field. For the time being, the process of carrying out a full pro-environmental transformation of the classic growth, brown, linear economy of excess to a sustainable, green, zero-carbon zero-growth and closed loop economy to create a zero-carbon economy, to halt the progressive process of global warming, to halt the over-consumption of natural resources, to halt the increase in environmental pollution is not possible with the current political, economic, financial, social, etc. realities. Therefore, in reality, the economics of climate change and the economics of a perfect green market are incompatible, despite the fact that it has been theoretically described how this can be achieved.

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

Dariusz

Dear

In my opinion, the economics of climate change is an attempt to present projections of potential future transformations and modifications of economic, socio-economic and financial processes that are likely to take place in the future in connection with the projections of climate change, including, above all, the progressive process of global warming and the various effects generated by these climate changes, most of them negative for nature and humans. To answer your question above: is the economics of climate change ecological economics? - I state that as the concept is new and developing in meaning it is difficult to conclusively determine whether the economics of climate change is an ecological economics. The economics of climate change is an attempt to describe economic processes and to estimate the amounts of financial resources, including additional costs, which will be generated in the future to reduce the scale of the negative social and economic effects of the progressive process of global warming. Estimating such cost amounts for a perspective of a few decades and with an unknown scale of the acceleration of the global warming process is therefore not precise and is subject to a certain level of estimation error. However, attempts are being made to estimate the additional costs that humanity will incur in order to limit, for example, the scale of the decline in food production, the decline in the production of agricultural crops due to the increasing scale of increasingly frequent and persistent periods of drought and the outbreak of forest and agricultural fires. Estimates are also being made of the costs that will have to be incurred in the future in order, for example, to effectively carry out a full pro-environmental transformation of the energy sector in a relatively short period of time in order to significantly reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. This attempts to present the necessary adaptation processes that will have to be carried out in the future in order to adapt civilisation to global warming in economic and financial terms. In addition to this, the high level of variation in the aforementioned estimates of the amounts of costs that humanity will be forced to bear is also due to the adoption of different priorities for the projected adaptation processes, since, on the one hand, the aim of these adaptation processes may be to reduce the negative effects of inevitable climate change or, on the other hand, the key objective of the aforementioned processes of pro-environmental transformation of the economy may be to try to halt the progressive process of global warming and thus avoid the very negative scenario of a global climate catastrophe that may already occur at the end of the current 21st century. However, this latter objective may be difficult to achieve if the pace of implementation of the pro-environmental transformation of the economy is also as slow in the future as it has been so far. If, however, this were the main objective for estimating the aforementioned additional costs that humanity will be forced to bear, estimating the level of decline in economic development, estimating the additional social, health costs caused by climate change, estimating the costs of e.g. irrigation of agricultural fields in a situation of permanently occurring periods of drought, etc., then, in such a situation, the economics of climate change may acquire the attributes of ecological economics or pro-ecological, pro-environmental economics in the future. In a situation where plans are being built to smoothly carry out a pro-environmental transformation of the classic growth, brown, linear economy of excess to a sustainable, green, zero-carbon, zero-growth and circular economy in order to halt global warming and avoid a negative scenario of a global climate catastrophe, a climate change economy subordinated to these goals may acquire the attributes of pro-environmentalism and sustainability. This will then result in the possibility of such economics being recognised as pro-environmental, pro-environmental, green or ecological economics. The above is the result of my thoughts on this issue and the results of my research on the subject.

Best regards,

Dariusz

Probably yes. There is a lot of literature on the topic. I am not an expert on the topic. Google search for the literature.

I recommend you NOT to convert quarterly to monthly data. You will have more observations but the increase of precision will be illusory. You say to have an I(2) variable but you don't say anything about the other variables. For example, if all of them are I(0), I don't think that cointegration will help. You should say more about your problem if you want appropriate suggestions.

It's an interesting research area, and I've already prepared a master's thesis on banks. It's an honor to cooperate with you.

Under the background of the big economy, these two markets have a mutual linkage. Commodity futures prices reflect the future price of goods, the price trend is actually reflected in people's expectations, and the futures price is due to expectations, so we can find the future price of the spot.

Azerbaijan

Dear Lucio,

Answering your question, I say that in my opinion the scale of avoiding the green market paradigm by companies and enterprises is still very large in the country where I operate. Many commercially operating companies and enterprises, if they are not forced by legal norms or if their clients still have a low level of pro-environmental transformation, still ignore the paradigms of the green market, they ignore the principles of ecological social responsibility, the principles of business ethics, green economy, sustainable development goals. On the other hand, some companies, corporations, banks and other financial institutions promote themselves in advertising spots as green and meeting specific goals of sustainable development. This is not always true. Usually, the scale of the transformation of business from classic to green is small and in advertising campaigns certain economic entities present themselves as fully green and implement on a large scale the goals of sustainable development. However, a more serious problem is that this type of misleading customers, citizens, this type of unreliable advertising campaigns and brand promotion campaigns as well as product and / or service offers are also used by government-controlled state-owned companies and some public institutions. The negative effect of such situations is misleading customers and citizens who, when buying products and / or services of a specific company, bank, enterprise, etc., assume that they are buying a green offer from an entity that pursues sustainable development goals and runs a green business, which often does not. is truthful. In addition, companies and enterprises use non-returnable financial subsidies for the implementation of pro-environmental economic ventures, for the creation and implementation of new eco-innovations, new green technologies, etc. However, there is no system of precise determination of what is green innovation and new green technology and what is not. Often, these subsidies are granted to companies and enterprises that fictitiously implement green economic ventures or the scale of pro-environmental business is negligible. On the other hand, there is a lack of financial resources for carrying out a systemic pro-environmental transformation of the economy, for the construction of new power plants generating electricity and / or heat from renewable and emission-free energy sources, for the development of electromobility, for the development of sustainable ecological agriculture, for afforestation of civilization degraded areas, for technology improvement. recycling and creating biodegradable substitutes for plastics, etc.

Best regards,

Dariusz

To whom it may concern,

Giraud and Grasselli have a paper that divides the household sector into two (workers and investors).

Kim and Lavoie have a paper that divides the productive sector into two (firms that produce capital goods and firms that produce consumer goods). This one is present in Silvia María Franco Anaya 's work with a good rating.

TianXi Cao has a paper that divides the productive sector (production of luxury goods and production of basic goods) and the household sector (workers in the luxury goods sector and workers in the basic goods sector). The author also makes an interesting discussion of dividing the economy into two sectors.

My main interest is in papers that divide the productive sector in two.

Lucio Muñoz : Thanks for your kind response to my comment. I must tell you that I am a decades-long, severe and antagonistic critic of modern official theoretical physics and cosmology; both in and out of RG. One of my forums in RG on Einstein’s theories of relativity was closed down by an exceptional ruling of the RG management after it ran for a year and a half and attracted many physicists from around the world. I can see that someone totally unknown to me, made a collage of my comments in that forum and posted it online at the following link:

But I understand that your question in this forum is not directed to persons like me (which is rather an exception), but of course, is very relevant in the face of the present crisis of credibility of modern scientific theories and the existing paradigm. I definitely welcome your efforts in this forum.

I must also say that I do not doubt the intellectual honesty of Kuhn; but in my opinion it was a naïve exercise; because it did not consider the harsh realities of society of conflicting interest groups as I discussed in my comment above. But Karl Popper in my opinion, was definitely an opportunist and trickster – a turncoat “Marxists”, used and promoted by British imperial authority on the one hand to bestow “scientific” benediction on the esoteric theories of relativity by Albert Einstein, making those Kosher (because such theories cannot be falsified and by default are established as objective truth!). On the other hand, used as a “determinist” in the polemic on quantum uncertainty and in the ideological conflict and geopolitical rivalry of the time.

Best regards.

you welcome

Dear Lucio Muñoz , let me bring in my simple point that economics is still not a science, but a profession, based on certain accounts and accounting methods of society. Even medicine is not a science, but more a science-based practice of empirical evidences via testing procedures. With respect to natural and exact science, I need to mention that the basic assumptions of biological evolution, physical thermodynamics and mathematical information theory are contradictory.

The ideological trap for scientific research and researchers is based on the financial decision: which research and researcher gets funded? Most scientific research is funded by government grants , companies doing research and development, and non-profit foundations; in a perfect world, money wouldn't matter — all scientific studies (regardless of funding source) would be completely objective.

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Great moments in science: Einstein discovers that time is actually money.

Gary Larson

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You can consider the following studies where I have used S-GMM in STATA not in R. Probably, youtube can help you with using R and S-GMM.

Abdoulaye Aboubacari Mohamed Thank you, Sir, i am very Grateful.

Hi, you can find help from this source:

I think that all countries suffer from this inflation, since there is a huge imbalance in the economic principles of supply and demand but also as a result of the devaluation of currencies. However, the situation will normalize very soon since this inflation is the consequence of Covid-19.

It is interesting that all answers give recommendations for methods without asking about the specification of the model and which variables shall be used.

That is not econometrics, but only metrics without any economic content.

The hypothesis implies that Dutch disease (DD) is confirmed. Nevertheless, it does not hurt non-oil tradable. Per definitionem, however, DD means deindustrialization of manufacturing. It were much clearer to test the effect of

1. Oil revenues/prices on the REERs (Regression 1)

2. The effect of the changing REERs on manufacturing (Regression 2)

3. conclude.

I hope this helps.

Kindly check..

You might want to check this chapter:

DISCUSSION_D.Prokopowicz_....The significance of banks' lending policy....economic situation...national economy and credit risk lev

els 1x.jpg

Why Singapore can become a developed country? (1) Singapore relies on the industrial and service sectors as its main economic activity and source of income. (2) 5Human resources in Singapore are excellent and have skills. (3) Singapore's strategic location makes it easy for the country to export its industrial products and import its various needs. (4) The Singaporean government always monitors the country's economic development and makes this a special concern.

The

Perhaps this paper can help you.

Steven, nobody is accusing anybody here. When you say that an entity has more power than another in the market and that is why there is no equality and freedom, by definition you are not talking about Adam Smith's perfect market...

If you look carefully at the pareto efficient and optimal point/conditions of the perfect traditional market, you can not be there without freedom and equality, but if you assume equality away you can be there only with freedom.

Let's leave it here. I am here to exchange ideas, not to impose ideas.

Respectfully yours;

Of course, there are both positive and negative impacts on economies because of COVID-19. But, the negative ones (economic slowdown, hardships to the general public) are more prominent, in general.

Many developing countries has female labourers specifically garments or RMG sector depends on the participation of women. So women are creating a huge impact on GDP growth.

"Free to Choose" (Friedman) should be in you history. It explains why the Keynesian doctrine had to be re-done, and re-done From Phillips doctrine failure (requiring one re-done) and the collapse of the Communism (requiring another re-done). And points to why anther re-do will be required.

I kindly thank professors Zunaira Zahoor and Ronando Gonzalez. I do not consider the case closed yet, new suggestions are welcome and are kindly appreciated especially if there are some Eviews examples with the articles.

kind regards

George K Zestos

@Fady M. A Hassouna and Kehinde Mary Bello, The augmented dickey fuller test is a conventional unit root test which does not account for structural breaks. Unlike, Lumsdane and pappel, Narayan and popp, Lee and stracizich and other unit root test that account for structural breaks.

MMT (Modern Economic Theory) would say that deficit spending is not a problem as long as it does not cause inflation, and that would not happen in a recession because the spending would not bid up the prices of goods or labor. However, in the pandemic recession, when production stopped for many goods, inflation might initially increase during shortages but should recede as supplies are resumed. If you are not family with MMT, a good intoduction is Kelton's book, The Deficit Myth.

Dear Dr. László Vértesy , thank you for the thought provoking question.

Advantages of a decreasing population

Long term benefits

1. Will bring better balance among the living beings/organisms.

2. Extinction of Religions and Gods

3. People will celebrate life. I think there will be no artificial, man-made death in the name of God(s), Religion, Nationality etc.,

4. People will die only by natural causes. The reaming few (People) will support each other to save the life other every other person.

Short term benefits

1. Less pollution, Lesser need for food, land and other resources.

2. More pet animals are saved from the harassment of humankind and live in their natural habitat. They may live happily (may be unhappily at times) with their Father, Mother, Sisters, Brothers and could escape from the confinement.

Disadvantages of a decreasing population

1. Long term impact - Extinction of Languages, Culture, Food Choices

2. Short term impact - Economy will shrink, more unemployment, population will have fewer young people supporting huge number of elders.

3. The streets, seemingly empty streets, buildings etc., may look devilish.

Some useful links:

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-12811197#:~:text=A%20study%20using%20census%20data,set%20for%20extinction%2C%20say%20researchers.&text=The%20result%2C%20reported%20at%20the,out%20altogether%20in%20those%20countries.

Thank you for this wonderful opportunity to share my views.

Best wishes and regards

Yoganandan

You may find answer from here.

See these links:

Nice ques, following

9 May MMXXI

Please read attached article, THE ART OF GREED...

Cordially...

ASJ

I hope it helps. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/

Thank you Olena Wagner for your input. Yes, I discussed that issue with a deputy for food programme located in Port Moresby, and he confirmed, that crime (including those crimes committed in clan wars and tribal fights) are impotant indicator that caused prematured death in many cases. That influences the total lifespan accordingly.

It is used in teaching macroecomics because it has a framework that incorporates the foundations of the principles of economics. Demand and supply tools are applied to macro aggregates like Agg Demand and Agg Supply, money, investment, govt expenditure, exports and imports with the prices (interest rates, exchange rates and inflation). Concepts of equilibrium and disequilibrium are also displayed.

Hi Irakly

you may try changing the order of the variables. In SVAR models with chokesky decomposition the order of vars is such that the first variable is affected only by its own shocks and not CONTEMPORANEOUSLY affected by shocks to the other variables. the second one, is affected only by its own shocks plus the shocks affecting the first one. The third one by the shocks affecting the first two plus is own. So on and so forth... I would revise your ordering. you can see papers by stock and Watson for author active references on this field.

good luck!

Check out openstax: https://openstax.org/details/books/principles-macroeconomics-2e

For answer see this link:

httpss://chaturvedimayank.wordpress.com/2017/02/21/stock-flow-consistent-models-for-ecological-economics/

Dear Lucio,

This topic will probably always be relevant, at least for the next several dozen years. Some kind of precursor concepts of what you called green market thinking and I refer to it as a green social market economy or a sustainable green circular economy appeared earlier, at the end of the 20th century, but it was ignored. Only in the last few years, the topic of sustainable, green circular economy has become one of the important topics undertaken not only by scientists and researchers, but also it is a topic of debates and discussions in the context of the development of applied environmental policies, adapting enterprises to the principles of pro-ecological policy, to increasing the possibilities of achieving the goals of sustainable development, implementing green technologies and eco-innovations. However, these large-scale processes will not be self-realized as an objective process. It is necessary to increase the scale of pro-environmental state interventionism. Enterprises without external pressure will not decide on their own pro-ecological reforms and green transformations, because it involves additional costs and / or investments and a change in the profile of the product and service offer addressed to citizens. Therefore, the pro-environmental, general social awareness of citizens must also increase, so that pro-ecological offers are chosen more often than non-ecological ones. Unfortunately, the opposite is usually the case, as green product and / or service offers tend to be more expensive than non-green ones. It should be otherwise. For the opposite to be the case, it is necessary to increase the scale of pro-environmental state interventionism. In view of the above, a pro-social and pro-environmental economic system defined as a green social market economy or a sustainable, circular green economy will not be created by itself in the process of objective development of market structures. It is necessary to constantly and gradually increase the scale of pro-ecological state interventionism and the general social pro-environmental awareness of citizens.

Greetings, Have a nice day, Stay healthy!

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dear Renaud Di Francesco,

Yes you are right. Thanks to the use of Industry 4.0 technology, operations are improved, logistics processes are improved, e.g. supply logistics, distribution, production and e-logistics. This increases the efficiency of production processes, optimizes the operational costs of the production process, increases the scale of automation and objectification of production processes, reduces the scale of errors and failures, and improves the quality of manufactured products. Then, thanks to ICT, Internet and Industry 4.0 information technologies, including smart technologies, Internet of Things technologies, cloud computing, Big Data Analytics, machine learning, artificial intelligence, robotics, etc., data describing production processes can be processed and analyzed using computerized Business Intelligence platforms and used in real-time reporting. The reports obtained in this way are helpful in the efficient management of an organization, enterprise, company, corporation, financial or public institution.

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

If you do not find it, the annual data can be converted into quarterly using the Eviews program

I appreciate Lucio Muñoz for the valuable topic. Would be interested to know as well.

Thank you for your detailed analysis.

As Navin Perera suggested try searching IMF or have a look at the Global Financial indicators by World bank.

I guess the difference is in the words implication Vs recommendation. Implication is the outcome result following your analysis, while recomendation is what you proposed or your choice of outcome to follow.

Have you looked at the Job Openings for Economists website? Many of the deadlines may have passed, but they may still accept for post-doc.

Try this:

Hugo Kruiniger, 2000. "GMM Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Persistent Data," Working Papers 428, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

Daniel H. Vedia-Jerez & Coro Chasco (2016) Long-Run Determinants of

Economic Growth in South America, Journal of Applied Economics, 19:1, 169-192, DOI: 10.1016/S1514-0326(16)30007-1

Kwang Jo Jeong (2017) Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in 18 OECD Countries, Seoul Journal of Economics 2017, Vol. 30, No. 1

Felbermayr, G.(2005), “Dynamic Panel Data Evidence on the Trade-Income Relation”, Review of World Economics, 141(4), pp. 583-611.

Dear Dr László Vértesy, I think algorithm based trading ( share, foreign exchange and commodity) has huge scope for AI. Already we are into it. Initially these will be premium services..... meaning will help rich becoming richer ànd poor becoming poorer. Warm regards Yoganandan G

It seems that there is no direct and simple answer to this question. I find that certain principles are commonly shared in the working of micro- and macro- such as the demand and supply relationships. But otherwise these two representations are incompatible. Please tell me if I am wrong.

Thanks for the insight @Anton Rainer

How can we attribute Logic to Divine Coincidence?

The Spanish flu has a detrimental impact on the economy. Swine flu, although considered an epidemic instead of a pandemic, has an adverse effect on USA economy. Basically pandemics and epidemics resulted in deaths and unemployment which led to a reduction in consumer spending and thus an imminent decline in economics performance.

Trade wars can lead to a decline in revenues in the state budget if the country developed exports and obtained high income from the state budget. In this situation, trade wars can lead to a public finance crisis if the state budget has a high budget deficit and public finances are burdened with high public debt.

Thank you Lucio Muñoz .

20 years of data and you have so many independent variables may run into problems when using GMM. GMM is an instrumental approach to estimation and most effective to address heterogeneity issues in cross sectional dynamic panel models. For your problem there are other estimators you can use which you can try and compared. Time series data normally have serial correlaton problems compared to heteroskedasticity in cross sectional data.

Dear friends, here I am sharing an expansion of green pareto optimality and traditional pareto optimality to link it to environmental externality management markets, simply as food for thoughts, done with positive intentions just to share ideas

Sustainability thoughts 126: Are environmental externality management based production and consumption bundles inconsistent with green pareto efficiency and with pareto efficiency principles at the same time? If yes, why?

Besides the above mentioned institutions, try Penn World and University of Groningen data:

https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/

https://febpwt.webhosting.rug.nl/Home

I will recommend you use Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) or the Markov Switching Time-Varying Transitory Probability (MS-TVTP) model.

Granger causality can be conducted for bivariate time series or multivariate time series, to test for a relationship - one sided or two-sided. VAR models simultaneous relationships and may not be applicable for one-sided relationship. If your question is that you have evidence of one-sided relationship using Granger, do I need a VAR to model the relationship? A VAR has other strengths (tracing shocks to the system and to see whether it is stable) other than modelling such a relationship. It also depends on number of observations given your 5 independent variables which will affect your df.

Well, Europe is better placed with institutional systems and strategies to recover from the COVID-19 (Chinese Virus). Africa with its maximally corrupt politicians are worst of, and in a frightening position. All over the world, efforts must be made for China to pay for this global danger. And Europe and America should be at the front of taming China and recouping compensations from China. This is one major way of protecting European youths and future generations from future bio-terrorism, or techo-science oppression. Africa must learn this.

Hi Adam,

Seems like a similar research I have done for my country and the EU in general.

You can run a Bayesian Model Averaging on panel data, using R software and BMS package: http://bms.zeugner.eu/ (here you can find also all support materials). As far as I know, BMA is not available in Stata and its full functionality could be run only in R.