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Dear Researchers, Scientists, Friends,
Do trade wars that restrict international trade based on high tariffs help or rather harm the domestic economy and how does it affect economic globalisation?
In my opinion, trade wars, which involve the imposition of tariffs and other restrictions, have a complex impact on the economy. On the one hand, they can have short-term benefits, such as protecting domestic production and creating jobs. The increased competitiveness of domestic products and the relocation of production back to the country generate new jobs and increase employment. On the other hand, in the long term, they lead to price increases, a weakening of the purchasing power of money and an economic slowdown. Prohibitive tariffs increase the prices of imported goods, which translates into higher costs for consumers and companies. The increase in the prices of goods and services reduces the purchasing power of money, lowering the standard of living of citizens. Retaliatory measures by other countries lead to a reduction in exports and have a negative impact on the economy. Rising prices, reduced trade and the uncertainty associated with trade wars have a negative impact on investment and economic growth. In conclusion, trade wars are a double-edged sword, bringing short-term benefits but leading to negative consequences in the long term. The final outcome depends on many factors, such as the size of the economy, its integration into the global economy and the reaction of other countries. The decision to implement a policy of trade wars should be carefully considered, and it is more beneficial in the long term to strive for open international trade.
In the context of globalisation, prohibitive tariffs can weaken global supply chains, leading to increased production costs and reduced efficiency. Trade wars can also lead to the fragmentation of the global market and its division into smaller, isolated trading blocs, which limits the possibilities for the development of international trade. The uncertainty associated with trade wars has a negative impact on the flow of foreign investment, hindering economic development. In addition, trade wars can exacerbate geopolitical tensions between countries and lead to conflict. In conclusion, protectionism based on high tariffs has a negative impact on economic globalisation. In the short term, it may bring some benefits, but in the long term it leads to negative consequences such as rising prices, reduced purchasing power, slower economic growth and a weakening of global supply chains. The pursuit of free and rules-based international trade is key to ensuring stable and sustainable economic development in the era of globalisation. International cooperation, dialogue and negotiations are essential to resolve trade issues and avoid the negative consequences of trade wars.
My articles below are related to the above issues in some aspects:
I have described the main issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets in my article below:
IMPACT OF THE SARS-COV-2 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON GLOBALISATION PROCESSES
I have described the key issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets in my article below:
IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY
I have described the issue of economic globalisation as an important factor in the systemic transformation of banking in Poland in the following article:
GLOBALISATIONAL AND NORMATIVE DETERMINANTS OF THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE BANKING CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN POLAND
Globalisation and the process of the systemic and normative adaptation of the financial system in Poland to the European Union standards
And what is your opinion on this topic?
What is your opinion on this issue?
Please reply,
I invite everyone to the discussion,
Thank you very much,
Best regards,
I invite you to scientific cooperation,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Trade wars, characterized by the imposition of tariffs and other trade barriers between countries, have complex and often detrimental effects on the domestic economy and global economic integration.
Harm to the Domestic Economy:
  • Increased Costs for Consumers and Businesses: Tariffs raise the price of imported goods, making them more expensive for domestic consumers. Businesses that rely on imported inputs also face higher production costs, which can reduce their competitiveness.
  • Reduced Export Competitiveness: Retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries can harm domestic exporters by making their products more expensive in foreign markets, leading to decreased sales and potential job losses.
  • Supply Chain Disruptions: Trade wars can disrupt established supply chains, forcing businesses to find alternative sources for inputs, which can be costly and time-consuming.
  • Economic Uncertainty: The unpredictability of trade policies during a trade war can create uncertainty for businesses, discouraging investment and hiring.
  • Inflation: Higher import prices due to tariffs can contribute to inflation, reducing consumers' purchasing power.
Impact on Economic Globalization:
  • Deglobalization Trends: Trade wars undermine the principles of free trade and economic integration that underpin globalization. They can lead to a fragmentation of the global economy into competing blocs.
  • Reduced Foreign Investment: The uncertainty created by trade wars can deter foreign investment, as companies become hesitant to invest in countries involved in trade disputes.
  • Weakened International Institutions: Trade wars can strain relationships between countries and weaken international institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO), which are designed to promote and regulate global trade.
  • Shift in Trade Patterns: Trade wars can lead to a shift in trade patterns as countries seek alternative trading partners to avoid tariffs. This can lead to inefficiencies and disruptions in the global trading system.
While some argue that trade wars can protect domestic industries and create jobs, the consensus among economists, dear Dariusz Prokopowicz , is that the negative effects generally outweigh the benefits. Trade wars can lead to higher prices, reduced economic growth, and increased uncertainty, ultimately harming both the domestic economy and the process of globalization.
Best: stephen
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What are the capabilities of developing countries to benefit from renewable energies in developing the labor market?
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Renewable energy has the potential to significantly impact the labor market in developing countries, Here are some potential effects:
- Job Creation: Renewable energy projects often require a large workforce for construction, installation, and maintenance. This can create new employment opportunities in developing countries.
- Economic Growth: Increased investment in renewable energy can stimulate economic growth in developing countries, leading to further job creation in related industries and sectors.
It is important to note that the overall impact of renewable energy on the labor market in developing countries will depend on a variety of factors, including the specific technologies used, the policies implemented, and the socio-economic context of each country.
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Building and developing the training plan for automobile mechanics according to the correct curriculum needed by the labor market in the current era
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It is convenient to clearly establish what competencies the future professional in the area of ​​automobile maintenance should possess, gathering information from the environment, and propose a progress map of the development of these competencies, in order to evaluate their levels of achievement. This must be reflected in the subject program through learning results that contribute to the development of the competence.
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Would workers desire labor unions less if Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs guided distributing an economic basis for each individual? How? Why?
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If Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs guided the distribution of economic resources, workers might desire labor unions less because:
  1. Basic Needs Met: If employers effectively address physiological and safety needs (e.g., fair wages, job security), workers may feel less compelled to unionize for these essentials.
  2. Higher Needs Focus: With foundational needs satisfied, workers might prioritize self-actualization and belonging, potentially leading to greater satisfaction within existing organizational structures.
  3. Increased Employer Responsibility: If companies actively promote personal and professional growth, the perceived need for collective bargaining may diminish.
However, some workers might still seek unions to address inequities, ensure fair practices, or advocate for their higher-level needs, indicating that unions may still play a crucial role in advocating for workers' rights and interests.
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What will be the impact of Industry 4.0/5.0 technologies, including generative artificial intelligence and Big Data Analytics, on labor markets in the future?
In recent years, the development of digitization and Internetization of the economy has accelerated. These processes in particular Digitization and Internetization of the economy are now occurring simultaneously in many areas of economic processes, in the functioning of business entities and public, financial and other institutions operating in economies that are increasingly becoming knowledge-based economies. The Covid-19 pandemic has further accelerated the processes of digitization and Internetization of the economy. More and more companies and enterprises operating in various industries and sectors of the economy are expanding their operations via the Internet, remotely providing their services and selling their products through e-commerce.
The development of information processing technologies in the era of the current Fourth Technological Revolution is determined by the development and growth of the applications of ICT, Internet technologies and advanced data processing technologies Industry 4.0. The current technological revolution associated with the concept of Industry 4. 0 is motivated by the development of such technologies as: Big Data Analytics, Data Science, cloud computing, machine learning, multi-layer artificial neural networks-based deep learning, generative artificial intelligence, personal and industrial Internet of Things, Business Intelligence analytics, autonomous robots, horizontal and vertical data system integration, multi-criteria simulation models, digital twins, Blockchain, smart technologies, cyber security instruments, augmented and virtual reality, and other technologies for advanced multi-criteria processing of large sets of data and information.
The processes of digitalization and Internetization of the economy are determined by “upstream” processes, i.e., those inspired by public institutions, including computerization, Internetization of public offices, and “downstream” determinants, i.e., e.g., the growth of e-commerce, the increase in the share of transactions and payments made electronically via the Internet, the development of Internet banking and the shift of a significant part of business in many companies to remote service conducted via the Internet.
In the future, due to the development of applications of Industry 4.0 technologies, including the ever-improving generative artificial intelligence, the employment of people in certain types of professions, occupations in certain industries and sectors of the economy may significantly decline. It is likely that significant declines in employment in some branches and sectors of the knowledge economy will occur in the next few years. There are many indications that in a few years the scale of applications of generative artificial intelligence in various areas of production processes and services provided will increase strongly. On the other hand, the development of applications of constantly improving generative artificial intelligence and other Industry 4.0 technologies will also create new jobs in analytical and research fields. However, just a few years ago, the prevailing thesis was that the scale of job losses would be much greater than the new jobs being created. In a period of rapid technological advances in recent years in the development of generative artificial intelligence technology and its applications, the emerging new jobs in which generative AI technologies are used is the aforementioned thesis begins to lose its relevance. In this regard, it is not out of the question that the number of new jobs and professions being created may fully manage the potentially emerging gap of lack of employment generated by AI technology replacing human labor. Regardless of the nature of the changes in labor markets that will result from the implementation of new Industry 4.0 technologies into various fields of business activities of companies and enterprises, it is certain that the impact on labor markets will be significant and substantial in the years to come.
I have described the key issues of opportunities and threats to the development of artificial intelligence technologies in my article below:
OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPLICATIONS AND THE NEED FOR NORMATIVE REGULATION OF THIS DEVELOPMENT
And the applications of Big Data technologies in sentiment analysis, business analytics and risk management were described in my co-authored article:
APPLICATION OF DATA BASE SYSTEMS BIG DATA AND BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SOFTWARE IN INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIZATION
I invite you to familiarize yourself with the issues described in the publications given above, and to scientific cooperation in these issues.
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:
What will be the impact of Industry 4.0/5.0 technologies, including generative artificial intelligence and Big Data Analytics technologies on labor markets in the future?
What will be the impact of Industry 4.0/5.0 technologies on labor markets in the future?
And what is your opinion on this topic?
What do you think about this topic?
Please answer,
I invite everyone to join the discussion,
Thank you very much,
Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
The above text is entirely my own work written by me on the basis of my research.
In writing this text, I did not use other sources or automatic text generation systems.
Copyright by Dariusz Prokopowicz
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The emergence of Industry 4.0 and 5.0 technologies is poised to significantly reshape labor markets in the future. Automation, artificial intelligence, and advanced robotics are likely to enhance productivity while simultaneously displacing certain job roles, particularly in manufacturing and routine tasks. However, there will also be a burgeoning demand for skilled workers proficient in technology management, data analysis, and creative problem-solving. Consequently, a dual transformation may occur: a reduction in traditional employment opportunities alongside the creation of new roles requiring advanced technical skills, thereby necessitating comprehensive retraining and upskilling initiatives to ensure workforce adaptability in this evolving landscape.
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How does the central bank combine taking care of the value of money by anti-inflationary tightening of monetary policy, including raising interest rates, with anti-crisis measures in a situation of high unemployment, i.e., in a situation in which the central bank anti-crisis eases monetary policy by, among other things, lowering interest rates?
In a situation of high inflation, the central bank anti-inflationarily raises interest rates. The side effect is to cool economic processes and weaken the economy. When there is a high level of unemployment in the economy, especially Keynsian unemployment and possibly structural unemployment then the central bank anti-crisis lowers interest rates. The side effect of the situation can be an increase in inflation. And what if the economy is plunged into a multi-faceted economic crisis, in which there is high unemployment, recession of the economy and high inflation. In such a situation there is stagflation. Due to high unemployment, the central bank may apply monetary easing. However, there is also high inflation at the same time, during which the central bank tightens monetary policy. Simultaneous easing and tightening of monetary policy can mean that there is no reaction at all regarding a possible change in strategy regarding monetary policy making. Then whether the central bank, caring about the value of money, will tighten monetary policy, including raising interest rates..., or, however, helping the government in conducting anti-crisis economic policy in an attempt to revive economic processes and contribute to the decline of high unemployment anti-crisis will ease monetary policy, including lowering interest rates, among other things, then other factors and determinants will probably decide, including mainly the factors determining the economic development of the country and/or the determinants of the formation of monetary policy taking into account monetary policy factors other than those mentioned above. Among these other factors and determinants of the formation of monetary policy may be the issue of influencing the formation of the national currency against other currencies.
I have described the key issues of the central banking problem in my articles below:
Comparisons of the monetary policy of the central banks of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland
Synergy of post-2008 Anti-Crisis Policy of the Mild Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank
Analysis of the effects of post-2008 anti-crisis mild monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank
A safe monetary central banking policy as a significant instrument for liquidity maintenance in the financial system
ACTIVATING INTERVENTIONIST MONETARY POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SECURITY OF THE EUROPEAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM
Anti-crisis state intervention and created in media images of global financial crisis
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scholars and researchers:
How does the central bank combine caring for the value of money by anti-inflationary tightening of monetary policy, including raising interest rates, with anti-crisis measures in a situation of high unemployment, i.e. in a situation in which the central bank anti-crisis eases monetary policy by, among other things, lowering interest rates?
How does the central bank combine taking care of the value of money with anti-crisis measures in a situation of high unemployment?
What do you think about this topic?
What is your opinion on this issue?
Please answer,
I invite everyone to join the discussion,
Thank you very much,
Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
The above text is entirely my own work written by me on the basis of my research.
In writing this text, I did not use other sources or automatic text generation systems.
Copyright by Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Central banks work hard to ensure that a nation's economy remains healthy. One way central banks accomplish this aim is by controlling the amount of money circulating in the economy. Their tools include influencing interest rates, setting reserve requirements, and employing open market operation tactics, among other approaches. Having the right quantity of money in circulation is crucial to ensuring a stable and sustainable economy.
In dire economic times, central banks can take open market operations a step further and institute a program of quantitative easing. Under quantitative easing, central banks create money and use it to buy up assets and securities such as government bonds. This money enters into the banking system as it is received as payment for the assets purchased by the central bank. The banks' reserves swell up by that amount, which encourages banks to give out more loans, it further helps to lower long-term interest rates and encourage investment.
After the financial crisis of 2007–2008, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve launched quantitative easing programs. More recently, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have also announced plans for quantitative easing.
Consequently, dear Dariusz Prokopowicz , anexpansionary monetary policy decreases unemployment as a higher money supply and attractive interest rates stimulate business activities and expansion of the job market.
Monetary policy can be effective in times of widespread unemployment of all kinds throughout the economy, i.e. when aggregate demand is deficient.
However, it is just not true that all unemployment is in this manner due to an insufficiency of aggregate demand and can be lastingly cured by increased demand. The causal connection between income and employment is not a simple one-way connection so that by raising income by a certain ratio we can always raise employment by the same ratio; but, in any case, of a system in a state of general unemployment it is roughly true that employment will fluctuate in proportion with money income, and that if we succeed in increasing money income we shall also in the same proportion increase employment.
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“Unemployment or the loss of income which will always affect some in any society is certainly less degrading if it is the result of misfortune and not deliberately imposed by authority.”
F.A. Hayek
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The question is pretty straightforward, I think. I was just searching for empirical research (econometric modelling, specifically) on segmented labor markets. I didn't found much, maybe because is not a very recent theory. But what I have found, especially for Latin America, seems to discard the theory. Is there a definitive answer or consensus on this?
Also, what would be the ideal test to the presence of marketduality or segmentation?
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Chuck A Arize Thank you! Do you have some examples of recent empirical papers on segmented market theory (maybe your own research if relevant)?
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What is the impact of the development of applications and information systems based on artificial intelligence technology on labor markets in specific industries and sectors of the economy?
Since the release of an intelligent chatbot built on the ChatGPT language model on the Internet in November 2021, the scale of ongoing discussions on the topic of the impact of the development of artificial intelligence technology on labor markets has increased again. Each successive technological revolution has largely generated changes in labor markets. The increase in the scale of automation of manufacturing processes carried out as part of business operations was motivated by the reduction of operational personnel costs resulting from hired personnel. Automation of manufacturing processes, including processes of production and offering services, may also have reduced the level of personnel operational risk. As a result, companies, firms and, in recent years, financial institutions and public entities, through the implementation of ICT, Internet and Industry 4.0/5.0 technologies in various business processes, are improving the efficiency of business processes and increasing the economic profitability of these processes. In each of the previous four technological revolutions, in spite of changing technical solutions and emerging new technologies, analogous processes of using these new technological advances to increase the scale of automation of economic processes worked. In the era of the current fourth or fifth technological revolution, in which a special role is played by the development of generative artificial intelligence technology, applications of this technology in the development of robotics, building autonomous robots, increasing the scale of cooperation between humans and highly intelligent androids is also making a new appearance and another stage of increasing the scale of automation of manufacturing processes. However, what from the point of view of entrepreneurs thanks to the applied new technologies, the achieved automation of production processes is an increase in the efficiency of manufacturing processes, increasing the scale of economic profitability, etc., is, on the other hand, generating serious effects on labor markets, including, among other things, a reduction in employment in certain jobs. The largest scale of applied automation of economic processes and, at the same time, the largest scale of employment reduction was and is generated for those jobs that are characterized by a high level of repetition of certain activities. The activities carried out by employees that are characterized by a high level of repetitiveness were usually the first ones that could be and have been replaced by technology in a relatively simple way. this is also the case today in the era of the fifth technological revolution, in which highly advanced intelligent information systems and autonomous androids equipped with generative artificial intelligence technologies contribute to the reduction of employment in companies and enterprises where humans are replaced by such technology. A particular manifestation of these trends are the group layoffs announced starting in 2022 of employees, including IT specialists in technology companies that the aforementioned advanced technologies of Industry 4.0/5.0 are also creating, developing and implementing into their economic processes carried out in the aforementioned technology companies. Recently, there have been a lot of different kinds of predictive analysis results in the media suggesting which occupations and professions previously performed by people are most at risk of increasing unemployment in the future due to the development of business applications of generative artificial intelligence technologies. In the first months of ChatGPT's release, the Internet was dominated by a number of publications suggesting that a significant portion of jobs in many industries will be replaced by AI technology over the next few decades. Then, after another few months of the development of applications of intelligent chatbots, but also the revelation of many controversies and risks associated with it such as the development of cybercrime and disinformation on the Internet, this dominant opinion began to change in the direction of slightly less pessimistic. these less pessimistic opinions suggest that the technology of generative artificial intelligence does not necessarily deprive the majority of employees in companies and enterprises of their jobs only the majority of employees will be forced to use these new tools, applications, information systems equipped with AI technology as part of their work. Besides, the scale of the impact of new technologies on labor markets will probably not be the same across industries and sectors of the economy.
I described the key issues of opportunities and threats to the development of artificial intelligence technology in my article below:
OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPLICATIONS AND THE NEED FOR NORMATIVE REGULATION OF THIS DEVELOPMENT
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:
What is the impact of the development of applications and information systems based on artificial intelligence technology on labor markets in specific industries and sectors of the economy?
What is the impact of the development of applications of artificial intelligence technology on labor markets in specific industries and sectors of the economy?
What do you think about this topic?
What is your opinion on this issue?
Please answer,
I invite everyone to join the discussion,
Thank you very much,
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
The above text is entirely my own work written by me on the basis of my research.
In writing this text, I did not use other sources or automatic text generation systems.
Copyright by Dariusz Prokopowicz
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The development of AI technology applications impacts labor markets by automating routine tasks, creating demand for new skills, and potentially leading to job displacement in certain industries and sectors.
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I have been looking for information on when the NAIRU was used as a benchmark for monetary policy in the United States.
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The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) was implicitly targeted by the Federal Reserve rather than explicitly targeted. The concept of NAIRU, which represents the level of unemployment below which inflation tends to rise, has influenced the Fed's monetary policy decisions since the 1970s. However, the Fed does not explicitly set policy based solely on NAIRU but considers a range of economic indicators, including inflation, employment, and growth, in its decision-making process.
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Will AI Be Taking On Almost All Works Leaving Most Employees Without Jobs?
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With the increase in labor productivity through AI, it is anticipated that humans will receive a high level of basic income, allowing them to devote themselves to creative activities, much like the citizens of ancient Greece.
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Is advanced vocational education for children, young people, or anyone who can't adapt to the labor market? What should future specialists know and be able to do?
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Personally, I do favor the dual model of vocational education, i.e. the practical skills foundation is acquired in real work, while the theoretical knowledge foundation is acquired by schooling. Today, this can be done by a mix of online, hybrid and on-site performances.
Your Екатерина Лыкова query on the future, with respect to education specialists, can be answered as follows: labor, polytechnic and vocational studies are one unit, i.e. for the education specialist, it is mandatory to be very realistic about the informatization stage of the respective economy and society.
The more entrepreneurship and market-coordination drive a national economy, the more real firms can participate in the vocational skills and knowledge formation; the more state-commanded programs drive the national economy, the less effective means of vocational skill and knowledge formation will be the outcome.
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Education is like a diamond with many facets: It includes the basic mastery of numbers and letters that give us access to the treasury of human knowledge, accumulated and refined through the ages; it includes technical and vocational training as well as instruction in science, higher mathematics, and humane letters.
Reagan, Ronald (1988). “Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States: Ronald Reagan, 1986”, p.490, Best Books
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The only purpose of education is freedom; the only method is experience.”
— Leo Tolstoy
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What new occupations, professional professions, specialties in the workforce are being created or will soon be created in connection with the development of generative artificial intelligence applications?
The recent rapid development of generative artificial intelligence applications is increasingly changing labor markets. The development of generative artificial intelligence applications is increasing the scale of objectification of work performed within various professions. On the one hand, generative artificial intelligence technologies are finding more and more applications in companies, enterprises and institutions increasing the efficiency of certain business processes supporting employees working in various positions. However, there are increasing considerations about the possibility of black scenarios coming true in futurological projections suggesting that in the future many jobs will be completely replaced by autonomic AI-equipped robots, androids or systems operating in cloud computing. On the other hand, in opposition to the black scenarios of future developments in labor markets are contrasted with more positive scenarios presenting futuristic projections of the development of labor markets, where new professions will be created thanks to the implementation of generative artificial intelligence technology into various aspects of economic activity. Which of these two scenarios will be realized to a greater extent in the future is currently not easy to predict precisely.
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:
What new professions, professional occupations, specialties in the workforce are being created or will soon be created in connection with the development of generative artificial intelligence applications?
What new professions will soon be created in connection with the development of generative artificial intelligence applications?
And what is your opinion on this topic?
What is your opinion on this issue?
Please answer,
I invite everyone to join the discussion,
Thank you very much,
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
The above text is entirely my own work written by me on the basis of my research.
In writing this text I did not use other sources or automatic text generation systems.
Copyright by Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Lutsenko E.V., Golovin N.S. The revolution of the beginning of the XXI century in artificial intelligence: deep mechanisms and prospects // February 2024, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17056.56321, License CC BY 4.0, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/378138050
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Write an academic essay on the topic "from diploma to skills: a revolution in education and the labor market" in the APA chair, as well as in the essay there should be a list of references
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Please note that this is not ChatGPT, but ResearchGate, a platform for researchers who write texts themselves. You should be also aware that using AI for writing an academic essay is considered as academic misconduct. Or did I misunderstand your question?
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In the world of employment, labor distribution companies usually use agents to persuade and recruit people in rural areas to become domestic workers or migrant workers. If so, then the persuasion or recruiting process by the agents can be seen as "selling" process, and in the candidates point of view, the decision to accept the offer of the agents can be interpreted as "buying" or "not buying" process. Any thought?
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Yes, but they also provide indispensable services to the countries where they go, contributing to the wealth of ageing societies and to the sustainability of these countries' welfare and employment systems.
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We want to understand how local labour market conditions affect social assistance caseload, earnings and exits to employment in Ontario.
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Based on the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development), labour market programmes and strategies have a significant impact on social assistance caseload. For instance, through their programmes they can reduce the number of people on benefits directly as they emphasis more on programme participations.
Also, because some benefit recipients prefer to leave unemployment instead of complying with programme requirements, they then embark on intensive employment services and training programmes that may have relatively favourable impacts on labour force participation and promote earnings progression.
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In your opinion, what are the main aspects of the consideration of the impact of the development of artificial intelligence, including such solutions of advanced language models built using generative artificial intelligence as ChatGPT, on the situation in labour markets in the future?
At present, ChatGPT is not yet taken fully seriously in many applications as a completely infallible and professional tool that can replace humans in many professions requiring creative word processing etc. This is related to the aforementioned high level of factual errors and the creation of 'fictitious facts' in the texts that ChatGPT creates in its answers to the questions people ask. In addition to this, it examines the data and information on the basis of which it provides answers from 2021, so it is no longer fully up to date in terms of many areas of knowledge. For example, it has happened on more than one occasion that when ChatGPT was asked about an event that was recently supposed to have happened ChatGPT would give an answer that a particular event, incident, etc. happened recently in 2023, give the exact date and details of the event, when in fact this event described by ChatGPT never happened and the knowledge base it uses ends temporally in 2021. The issue of the technological progress taking place dynamically in this field in various circles of citizens acting as employees in various companies, enterprises and institutions, as well as in discussions in scientific spheres and in the media, generates a lot of controversy. On the one hand, the technological progress, development of artificial intelligence and its applications are presented in many discussions and publications, press and scientific articles mainly in positive aspects in the context of ever faster economic and social processes, structural changes in the industry and sectoral structure of the economy, including the emergence of new branches of services, new types of technological products, development of technological sectors, emergence of new professions and occupations in the context of developing information technologies ICT and Industry 4. 0. On the other hand, there are critical and pessimistic opinions concerning the potential effects of the dynamic development of artificial intelligence and its applications, which will lead to the replacement of work done by humans with the same work done by artificial intelligence. It is already estimated, on the basis of ongoing research in this field, that by the end of this decade, artificial intelligence could take away jobs from at least 300 million people globally. So it is certain that the implementation of certain different technological solutions of artificial intelligence into the various spheres of activity of companies, enterprises and institutions will change labour markets to a large extent in the next few years.
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:
In your opinion, what are the main aspects of the consideration of the impact of the development of artificial intelligence, including such solutions of advanced language models built using generative artificial intelligence as ChatGPT, on the situation in labour markets in the future?
What are the main aspects of considering the impact of the development of artificial intelligence on the situation of labour markets in the future?
What do you think about this topic?
What is your opinion on this subject?
Please respond,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Counting on your opinions, on getting to know your personal opinion, on an honest approach to discussing scientific issues and not ChatGPT-generated ready-made answers, I deliberately used the phrase "in your opinion" in the question.
The above text is entirely my own work written by me on the basis of my research.
I have not used other sources or automatic text generation systems such as ChatGPT in writing this text.
Copyright by Dariusz Prokopowicz
Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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ChatGPT can be helpful in programming and creating new IT applications and formulas. ChatGPT can help programmers by providing suggestions for code snippets and algorithms. ChatGPT can also help programmers by answering questions about programming languages and frameworks. ChatGPT can also help with natural language processing tasks such as text classification, sentiment analysis, and language translation.
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Hello, I would like to ask if there is any model or theory that indicates the impact of the minimum wage on other wages. I've searched in the direction of dual labor markets but could not find any literature that clearly indicates.
In mathematical terms, the impact of the minimum wage on other wages.
I'm not looking for empirical article, but rather a theoretical framework. Thank you.
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Hi,
Maybe this paper by Boeri, Garibaldi and Ribeiro will be useful for you:
It is about how wages in the informal sector increase after a minimum wage hike.
Good luck,
Miguel
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What will be the impact of technological advancements viz. Artificial intelligence (ChatGPT) on labor markets and income inequalities?
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Large language models like ChatGPT that have been trained on record-breaking numbers of words (trillions) have surprised many, including many AI researchers, with how realistic, extensive, flexible and context-sensitive their completions are...
There will no longer be a need for you to ask other people to draft coherent, generic text. On the other hand, large language models will enable new ways of working, and also lead to new and as yet unimagined jobs...
Although large language models certainly portend disruption for creative and knowledge workers, there are still many valuable opportunities in the offing for those willing to adapt to and integrate these powerful new tools...
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I was thinking of using a VAR model. can you direct me to other similar studies
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It depends on the nature of the time series data. If there is existed structural breaks than non linear analysis is favourable. Usually time series data has many fluctuations so you may use NARDL econometric approch.
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Is your current job related to your academic specialization ?
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Yes. In moment my job is health of black people. My academic specialization is in sickle cell disease, a hematologic disease prevalent in Brazil.
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I'm trying to publish a review article on Labor market in the field of economics. So I need a journal with the following characteristics -
1. very quick first decision (tentatively a few weeks)
2. publishes quickly (within 2-3 months, assuming I'll be able to fulfill the corrections properly)
3. A journal with a Scopus index
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Yes, I'd say the same Sustainability & MDPI journals
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Dear colleagues, I am conducting a quasi experimental analysis focused on the Italian labor market. More specifically, I would like to evaluate the impact of a specific reform over the probability (after some specific time period, e.g., 1 year) of being employed (or not) after the implementation of the reform. Therefore, the outcome variabile is a dichotomous variable equal to 1 if the individual is employed after the specific time period, 0 if not. In the literature, as far as I know, quasi-experimental studies are conducted using mainly continuous response variables. My idea is to rely on a Propensity Score Matching (PSM) approach. However, I would like to ask you for some suggestions and works to consult in order to properly undertake this analysis of mine. Thank you in advance.
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I would do a survey using Likert scales and analyse with Chi Square tests :)
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At present, the economies of developed countries are entering the period of the fourth technological revolution known as Industry 4.0.
The previous three technological revolutions:
1. The industrial revolution of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, determined mainly by the industrial application of the invention of a steam engine.
2. Electricity era of the late nineteenth century and early twentieth century.
3. The IT revolution of the second half of the twentieth century determined by computerization, computerization, the widespread use of the Internet and the beginning of the development of robotization.
The current fourth technological revolution, known as Industry 4.0, is motivated by the development of the following factors:
- artificial intelligence,
- cloud computing,
- machine learning,
- Big Data database technologies,
- Internet of Things.
In every previous technological revolution, the same question was repeated many times. However, economies developed and changed structurally and labor markets returned to balance. Periodically, short-term economic crises appeared, but their negative economic effects, such as falling income and rising unemployment, were quickly reduced by active state intervention.
It seems to me that self-malting and robotization, IT, artificial intelligence, learning machines will change the labor markets, but this does not necessarily mean a large increase in unemployment. New professions, occupations, specialties in these areas of knowledge and technology will be created. Someone, after all, these machines, robots, etc. must design, create, test, control, and implement into production processes.
Therefore, I am asking you:
Will the technological development based on self-mulization, robotization, IT development, artificial intelligence, machine learning increase unemployment in the future?
Please reply. I invite you to the discussion
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We do care AI and other Technological approaches and apply them for better environment and humanity ,love and affection but still human is at the center as human intelligence is sentiment oriented and this will be lost or decay .Thus hybrid approach paradigms should be adopted .
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Dear friends,
Dear friends, The published research results indicate that in the period 2021-2023, the cost of robots will reach the equilibrium point between the cost of human labor. In Poland, for the metal industry as well as for the semi-trailer production industry, in my opinion, this equilibrium point has been achieved. The pandemic only hastened reaching this point. There are two reasons: the lack of qualified specialists on the labor market and their high financial requirements, uncertainty due to the presence of employees and lower costs of purchasing and operating robotic production systems. I have a question - What is the situation in your countries? And what is the situation in individual industries? I encourage you to discuss and maybe joint research on this topic.
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Thank you for your response. In countries with low labor costs, the transformation process will be lagging behind in developed countries. In my country, we currently have a shortage not only of specialists, but of people to work in general. Covid is also a factor that influences the decision making to accelerate the transformation process. The fiscal policy of the state may also contribute to the situation that the cost of human labor exceeds the costs of robotic systems.
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I'd like to link the International Standard Classification (ISCO) 1988 codes or the 2008 codes to a measure of occupational complexity. Does anyone know a good datasource?
I know O*Net has such a measure but these are linked to SOC codes for the US. The data I'm using is from Europe, so I'm hoping there is an occupational complexity index based on european data.
The ESCO (european classification occupation skills) doesn't rate occupational complexity.
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I'm using the term referring to the complexity of social interaction and cognitive functioning, in a broad sense. Similar to the way Kohn and colleagues would use it (see reference below). I think this overlaps with the way complexity is thought of in the Skill biased/Routine biased technological change literature.
Countries - European countries in general. I would suppose that occupations are fairly similar within European countries in their complexity.
Kohn, Melvin L., and Carmi Schooler. 1982. ‘Job Conditions and Personality: A Longitudinal Assessment of Their Reciprocal Effects’. American Journal of Sociology 1257–86.
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We are calling for a paradigm shift in engineering education. In times of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (“4IR”), a myriad of potential changes is affecting all industrial sectors leading to increased ambiguity that makes it impossible to predict what lies ahead of us. Thus, incremental culture change in education is not an option anymore. The vast majority of engineering education and training systems, having remained mostly static and underinvested in for decades, are largely inadequate for the new 4IR labor markets. Some positive developments in changing the direction of the engineering education sector can be observed. Novel approaches of engineering education already deliver distinctive, student-centered curricular experiences within an integrated and unified educational approach. We must educate engineering students for a future whose main characteristics are volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Talent and skills gaps across all industries are poised to grow in the years to come. Therefore, promote an engineering curriculum that combines timeless didactic tradition, such as Socratic inquiry, project-based learning, and first-principles thinking with novel elements (e.g. student-centered active and e-learning by focusing on the case study and apprenticeship pedagogical methods) as well as a refocused engineering skillset and knowledge. These capabilities reinforce engineering students’ perceptions of the world and the subsequent decisions they make. This 4IR engineering curriculum will prepare engineering students to become curious engineers and excellent communicators better navigating increasingly complex multistakeholder ecosystems.
What are your opinions?
What are your insights?
Do you know great articles or books which cover this topic well?
Many thanks for your perspective!
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Also, Dr M.M. Bühler : The Industrial Revolution brought several important changes to the field of education by making education accessible for children of all socioeconomic backgrounds and setting laws making education a requirement. The government, for the first time in history, allocated funds to promote education in schools. See the link: https://www.mvorganizing.org/how-did-the-industrial-revolution-impact-education-in-the-united-states/
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Many studies cover the positive relationship between women's education and participation with GDP growth. however, very few studies covered the effects of women's participation on wages, and these few studies are usually very general and do not cover specific sectors.
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Many developing countries has female labourers specifically garments or RMG sector depends on the participation of women. So women are creating a huge impact on GDP growth.
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In recent years, many articles have appeared, assessing the risks of automating the economy in the next 10-20 years due to the development of unmanned technologies.
But there are also counterfactual assessments from labor market experts who believe that scientific progress always creates more jobs than it kills in the long run.
Who is right?
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I think robots will be a big failure if it tries to replace gods creation that is humanbeings and if we try to build robots it will destroy our earth.
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Almost all of the studies on earning differential between immigrants and natives ignore selection bias. I am using a wage decomposition approach, namely Blinder-Oaxaca, to estimate wage differential between immigrants and natives. My supervisor suggested employing Heckman two-step method to correct selection bias. However, to me it is not clear whether there is any self-selection among immigrants to participate in the labor market, causing a selection bias in their wage equation. There are intuition and theory behind selectivity among females in the gender wage gap since women may have a self-selection decision to NOT participate in the labor market due to family issues. So, what would be the intuition behind selection bias in the case of migrant-native wage gap? and if it is the case, then how should I consider the exclusion restriction and the identification of wage equation and LFP equation?
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Hello, guys! I've been looking for material about the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition because I would like to apply it in my thesis. I have a data base with only formal workers that work in Brazil, and I would like to estimate the wage differential between immigrants and natives. What are the selection bias that I should consider, once it does not have unemployed people in the data?
Thank you!
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It is very difficult to be an actor or participate in the labor market of the film industry. the internet is more democratic.
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I understand film industry as a mean of making and spreading cultural standards. The concentration of such industry in some areas of the globe can be understood via various means: monetary, access, empaty of the public, national representations, etc.
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I have been through a number of journals and Research Papers. I wanted to get an idea as to what new areas are still left to be researched in "Will Automation lead to unemployment or it will lead to skill enhancement to survive in the labor market ".
Please suggest accordingly so that I can proceed. I am a novice learner and some help would be appreciative.
Thanks in advance.
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Dear Indira Roy , thank you very much for your interesting question.
Far from being an expert on the subject, I take the liberty of adding some notions linked to this relationship.
Among the authors who disbelieve in the self-regulation of markets, there is a consensus on the deterioration of the labour market, associated with structural transformation policies - asymmetries between the economic and the social, flexibility of labour relations, the level of the minimum wage in collective bargaining, training and employment insurance, etc. -.
The labour market literature is often too divergent with regard to the functioning of the labour market. The solutions to unemployment of the main theories are far from consensus. One could mention the neoclassical paradigm, where labour market imbalances are solved by relative price adjustment, self-regulating as in any other market, on the one hand. On the other hand, the concept of unemployment in the modern sense, which only came about at the beginning of the 20th century (Salazar, 2011). It is understood as an involuntary phenomenon (Webb and Webb, 1909), and of a social nature, caused by the malfunctioning of the labour market, which requires state action for its solution (Beveridge, 1930). Although the latter explanation gains more emphasis with Keynes.
There is a long-standing paradoxical relationship between technical progress - the coincidence of the advance of automation, among other technological advances - and employment. Regarding this complex link, Ricardo wrote: "I am convinced that the substitution of machines for human labour is often detrimental to the interests of the working class (...)" (Ricardo, 1817, p. 344). In the same vein, Marx predicted that the process of mechanisation would condemn workers to subsistence wages (Marx, 1906), while Keynes expressed himself using the concept of "technological unemployment" (Keynes, 1963), while Leontief stated that "the role of humans as the most important factor of production is bound to diminish (...)" (Leontief, 1983, p.3). In the 1960s, fears were expressed of an extreme scenario - the Technological Singularity - where intelligent machines would become more and more powerful, overtaking humans and pushing them out of the labour market. As a consequence, wealth and power would be concentrated in the hands of a small elite of owners, creating unprecedented inequality (Harari, 2017). Today, some pessimistic authors, such as Beck (1998), argue that the new productivity law of global capitalism in the information age implies less educated and globally interchangeable workers. Meanwhile, Frey and Osborne estimate that 47% of jobs in the United States may disappear (Frey and Osborne, 2017). In contrast, Joel Mokyr, rejecting the positions of the "technopessimists", believes that the future will bring occupations that will be as foreign to us as many of today's jobs are to our grandparents (Mokyr, 2014).
The evidence of recent years is a very heterogeneous labour market - by industries, occupations and countries - and a strong polarisation of work. On the one hand, the collaborative economy and the emergence of digital platforms are generating a dizzying growth of part-time and real-time contracting, self-employment (Salinas, 2001), with minimal social protection - and low job quality - and detached from labour legislation (Tirole, 2017). These markets demand greater flexibility and the ability to adapt to new skills - as opposed to the professional profile or over-specialisation of the past (Bessen, 2015). On the other hand, the differentiation between routine and non-routine tasks characterises the current period. The former, whether skilled or unskilled, can easily be robotised. Thus, the diversification of training objectives, compatible with a versatile workforce, goes beyond mere job matching (Farber, 1993), and is increasingly framed within the framework of continuing education for employment (Salinas, 2001).
Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, which leads to a shutdown of economies and societies are in more or less severe quarantines, measures comparable only to those in wartime situations, we face an uncontrolled rise in unemployment. The ILO estimates that there are between 5.3 million ("cautious" scenario) and 24.7 million ("extreme" scenario) new unemployed from a baseline of 188 million unemployed in 2019 globally - the 19.4 million unemployment gap in the prediction reflects the difficulty of the COVID 19 health crisis. For comparison, the 2008 global financial crisis increased the number of unemployed by 22 million. In addition, the agency highlights that 1.25 billion workers are at risk of layoffs, reduced wages and possible reduction in hours worked. According to the estimates of international agencies, the current health crisis will adversely affect the world of work in three key ways:
Increased unemployment and underemployment; 2. Job precariousness - with respect to wages and access to social protection; and 3. Effects on the most vulnerable specific groups - these tend to be women, young people and immigrants who have a more precarious employment situation linked to temporariness, and less skilled jobs developing elementary occupations that cannot be adapted to teleworking.
It is no easy task to predict the impacts of the technologies of the digital world - robotisation, hyperconnectivity, artificial intelligence, among others - on the future labour market. In a context where there is no consensus on slowing down the speed of automation for a better adaptation and a reduction of its negative consequences, it is no easy task to predict the impacts of the technologies of the digital world - robotisation, hyperconnectivity, artificial intelligence, among others - on the future labour market. Given the multiplicity of factors that mediate between technological development and unemployment, I would like to know more about the state of knowledge of the issues mentioned.
I apologise Indira Roy for the general nature of this reply. We look forward to the contributions of more colleagues who are working on these issues, in order to sort out the ideas.
Best regards and thanks
Fernando (from Argentina)
Bibliography:
Bessen, J., (2015). Learning by doing: The real connection between innovation, wages and wealth, Yale University Press
Beveridge, W.H. (1930). Unemployement. A problem of industry. Londres, Longman.
CEPAL (2020), COVID-19 tendrá graves efectos sobre la economía mundial e impactará a los países de América Latina y el Caribe.
CEPAL, N. (2020). América Latina y el Caribe ante la pandemia del COVID-19: efectos económicos y sociales.
Farber, H. S. (1993). The incidence and cost of job loss: 1982-91. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 73- 132.
Frey, C.B. y Osborne, M., (2017). “The future of Employment: How susceptible are Jobs to computerisation”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017, vol. 114, issue C, 254-280.
Harari, Y., (2017). “Homo Deus”, Taurus.
Keynes, J.M., (1963). Essays in persuasion, Norton. Versión en castellano: Ensayos de persuasión, Editorial Síntesis, 2009.
Leontief, W., (1983). “National perspective: The definition of problems and opportunities”, en National Academies: The long term impact of technology on employment and unemployment, National Academy of Engineering.
Marx, K., (1906). Capital: A critique of political economy, Modern Library, Nueva York, pgs. 708- 709.
Mokyr, J., (2014). “Secular stagnation: Not in your life”, VoxEU, Agosto.
OIT, (2020). “Covid-19 y el mundo del trabajo: repercusiones y respuestas”, 18 de marzo de 2020
OIT, (2020). World employment and social outlook – Trends 2020.
OIT, (2020). Young workers will be hit hard by COVID-19’s economic fallout.
Salazar, O. C. (2011). La precarización laboral y el desempleo como consecuencias del neoliberalismo y la globalización. Revista Tendencias & Retos, (16), 43-57.
Salinas, J., (2001). “TIC: ocupación y formación ¿globalización-desempleo?”. Artículo presentado en CIFO III Congreso de Formación Profesional ocupacional. Formación, trabajo y certificación, realizado del 20 al 23 junio del 2001.
Tirole, J., (2017). La economía del bien común, Taurus.
Webb, B. T Webb, S. (1909). The break-up of the poor laws, Londres, Fabian Society, 1909.
Estimada Indira, muchas gracias por tu interesante pregunta
Lejos de ser un experto en el tema, me tomo el atrevimiento de sumar algunas nociones vinculadas a esta relación.
Entre los autores que descreen de la autorregulación de los mercados, se destaca el consenso en el deterioro registrado en el mercado de trabajo, asociado a políticas de transformación estructural – asimetrías entre lo económico y lo social, flexibilidad de las relaciones laborales, nivel del salario mínimo en las negociaciones colectivas, seguro de capacitación y empleo, etc.–
La bibliografía respecto al mercado de trabajo suele ser demasiado divergente respecto al funcionamiento del mercado de trabajo. Las soluciones al desempleo de las principales teorías están lejos del consenso. Podría mencionarse el paradigma neoclásico, en donde los desequilibrios del mercado de trabajo se resuelven mediante un ajuste de precios relativos, autorregulándose como sucede en cualquier otro mercado, por un lado. Y el concepto de desempleo en sentido moderno que se produce recién a principios del siglo XX (Salazar, 2011), por otro. Entendido como fenómeno involuntario (Webb y Webb, 1909), y de carácter social, causado por el mal funcionamiento del mercado de trabajo, que requiere la acción del Estado para su solución (Beveridge, 1930). Si bien esta última explicación cobra mayor énfasis con Keynes.
Existe una paradójica relación de larga data entre el progreso técnico –incidencia del avance de la automatización, entre otros avances tecnológicos–, y el empleo. Respecto a este vínculo complejo, Ricardo escribía: “Estoy convencido de que la sustitución del trabajo humano por las máquinas es con frecuencia perjudicial para los intereses de la clase trabajadora (...)” (Ricardo, 1817, p. 344). En el mismo sentido, Marx predijo que el proceso de mecanización condenaría a los trabajadores a salarios de subsistencia (Marx, 1906), en tanto, Keynes se manifestó utilizando el concepto de “desempleo tecnológico” (Keynes, 1963), mientras que Leontief afirmo que “el papel de los humanos como el factor de producción más importante está llamado a disminuir (…)” (Leontief, 1983, p.3). En los años sesenta se expresó el temor por un escenario extremo –la Singularidad Tecnológica–, en donde las máquinas inteligentes se harían cada vez más potentes, llegando a superar al ser humano, expulsándolo del mercado de trabajo. Como consecuencia, la riqueza y el poder se concentrarían en una pequeña élite de propietarios, creando una desigualdad sin precedentes (Harari, 2017). En la actualidad, algunos autores pesimistas como Beck (1998), manifiestan que la nueva ley de productividad del capitalismo global en la era de la información, implica trabajadores menos formados y globalmente intercambiables. En tanto, Frey y Osborne estiman que un 47% de los empleos en Estados Unidos pueden desaparecer (Frey y Osborne, 2017). En cambio, Joel Mokyr en rechazo a las posturas de los “tecnopesimistas”, considera que el futuro traerá ocupaciones que nos resultarán tan extrañas como muchas de las actuales a nuestros abuelos (Mokyr, 2014).
La evidencia de los últimos años, es un mercado laboral muy heterogéneo –por industrias, ocupaciones y países–, y una fuerte polarización del trabajo. Por un lado, la economía colaborativa y la aparición de plataformas digitales está generando un crecimiento vertiginoso de contrataciones de trabajo parcial y en tiempo real, empleo por cuenta propia (Salinas, 2001), con mínima protección social – y baja calidad de empleos–, desvinculadas de las legislaciones laborales (Tirole, 2017). Estos mercados demandan mayor flexibilidad y capacidad de adaptarse a nuevas competencias –a diferencia del perfil profesional o la sobreespecialización del pasado (Bessen, 2015) –. Por otro lado, la diferenciación entre tareas rutinarias y no rutinarias caracterizan al periodo actual. Las primeras, requieran cualificación o no, se pueden robotizar con facilidad. De manera que la diversificación de los objetivos formativos compatible con una fuerza de trabajo versátil, supera la mera adecuación al puesto de trabajo (Farber, 1993), y se enmarcan cada vez más en una educación continua para el empleo (Salinas, 2001).
Ante la coyuntura de la crisis de la pandemia del COVID-19, que conduce a un cierre de las economías y las sociedades se encuentran en cuarentenas más o menos severas, medidas solo comparables a las de situaciones de guerra, enfrentamos un descontrolado aumento del desempleo. La OIT estima que hay entre 5,3 millones (hipótesis “prudente”) y 24,7 millones (hipótesis “extrema”) nuevos desocupados a partir de un nivel de base de 188 millones de desocupados en 2019 a nivel mundial –la brecha de 19,4 millones de desocupados en la predicción refleja la dificultad de la crisis sanitaria del COVID 19–. Para establecer una comparación, la crisis financiera mundial de 2008 aumento la cantidad de desocupados en 22 millones. Además, el organismo resalta que 1,25 billones de trabajadores se encuentran en riesgo de despido, reducción del salario y posible disminución de horas trabajadas. Según las estimaciones de los organismos internacionales, la actual crisis sanitaria repercutirá adversamente en el mundo del trabajo en tres aspectos fundamentales:
1. Aumento del desempleo y del subempleo; 2. Precarización laboral –con respecto a los salarios y el acceso a protección social–; y 3. Efectos en los grupos específicos más vulnerables–suelen ser las mujeres, los jóvenes y los inmigrantes que poseen una situación laboral más precaria vinculada con la temporalidad, y los empleos menos cualificados que desarrollan ocupaciones elementales que no pueden adaptarse al teletrabajo.
No es tarea sencilla predecir los impactos de las tecnologías del mundo digital – la robotización, la hiperconectividad, la inteligencia artificial, entre otros–, en el mercado laboral futuro. En un contexto en que no existe consenso en reducir la velocidad de la automatización, para una mejor adaptación, y una disminución de sus consecuencias negativas. Dada la multiplicidad de factores que median entre el desarrollo tecnológico y el desempleo, desearía conocer con mayor profundidad el estado del conocimiento de las problemáticas mencionadas.
Le pido disculpas Indira por el carácter general de la respuesta. Esperamos los aportes de más colegas que están trabajando estos temas, para que ordenen las ideas.
Un saludo y gracias
Fernando (desde Argentina)
Bibliografía:
Bessen, J., (2015). Learning by doing: The real connection between innovation, wages and wealth, Yale University Press
Beveridge, W.H. (1930). Unemployement. A problem of industry. Londres, Longman.
CEPAL (2020), COVID-19 tendrá graves efectos sobre la economía mundial e impactará a los países de América Latina y el Caribe.
CEPAL, N. (2020). América Latina y el Caribe ante la pandemia del COVID-19: efectos económicos y sociales.
Farber, H. S. (1993). The incidence and cost of job loss: 1982-91. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 73- 132.
Frey, C.B. y Osborne, M., (2017). “The future of Employment: How susceptible are Jobs to computerisation”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017, vol. 114, issue C, 254-280.
Harari, Y., (2017). “Homo Deus”, Taurus.
Keynes, J.M., (1963). Essays in persuasion, Norton. Versión en castellano: Ensayos de persuasión, Editorial Síntesis, 2009.
Leontief, W., (1983). “National perspective: The definition of problems and opportunities”, en National Academies: The long term impact of technology on employment and unemployment, National Academy of Engineering.
Marx, K., (1906). Capital: A critique of political economy, Modern Library, Nueva York, pgs. 708- 709.
Mokyr, J., (2014). “Secular stagnation: Not in your life”, VoxEU, Agosto.
OIT, (2020). “Covid-19 y el mundo del trabajo: repercusiones y respuestas”, 18 de marzo de 2020
OIT, (2020). World employment and social outlook – Trends 2020.
OIT, (2020). Young workers will be hit hard by COVID-19’s economic fallout.
Salazar, O. C. (2011). La precarización laboral y el desempleo como consecuencias del neoliberalismo y la globalización. Revista Tendencias & Retos, (16), 43-57.
Salinas, J., (2001). “TIC: ocupación y formación ¿globalización-desempleo?”. Artículo presentado en CIFO III Congreso de Formación Profesional ocupacional. Formación, trabajo y certificación, realizado del 20 al 23 junio del 2001.
Tirole, J., (2017). La economía del bien común, Taurus.
Webb, B. T Webb, S. (1909). The break-up of the poor laws, Londres, Fabian Society, 1909.
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I am constructing a pseudo panel from repeated cross sections of labor force surveys in which I calculated female labor force participation rates for birth cohorts (starting from 1930s until recently) for different age groups along with other variables. For the analysis part I want to do cohort survival analysis in labor markets. But I could not find relevant literature related to cohort survival analysis because most of the studies use longitudinal data sets. And most of the time I stumbled upon articles related to medical research. Can someone suggest some readings related to cohort survival in terms of their transition in and out of labor markets and how these transition rates change or vary with the level of education, marital status, care responsibilities etc.
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Maybe the literature review of this dissertation can be of some help:
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Are we at risk of further development of the remote labor market? Will it affect the development of the precariat?
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The awaited disruptive digitization of work and learning will only be accelerated by the virus. The precariat will not have the skills and knowledge to participate in this new market options. It was Peter Drucker, who already pointed to these options of the computer as information machine: if you are not educated (to a certain level), these new opportunities will be out of reach for you.
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I was curious about the possible Machine Learning methods or approaches for outlier (anomaly) detection in labor economics.
I tried to search for this matter, but could not find any pertinent research to this problem. It would be a pleasure if anyone knows any scientific thesis, paper or survey about anomaly detection in labor economics.
Best.
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Dear Prof. Naghavi,
I am providing reference to two of my papers based on fuzzy techniques for outlier detection.
Vasudev Sharma, Abhinav Nagpal and B. K. Tripathy: A Fuzzy Constraint Based Outlier Detection Method. In: Huang DS., Huang ZK., Hussain A. (Eds) Intelligent Computing Methodologies. ICIC 2019, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 11645. (2019), Springer, Cham, pp. 515-527.
Vasudev Sharma and B. K. Tripathy: High Dimensional Fuzzy Outlier Detection, ICONIP2019 Proceedings, (2019), pp.45-55
Hopefully the techniques will be useful to you.
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I am especially interested in national (or federal) minimum wages that account for worker's welfare and factor in cost-of-living; inflation rate; CPI, poverty lines or any similiar measure. I am looking for formulae e.g. minimum wage increase= Inflation rate increase + increase in GDP + median wage change + 2%.
I have looked at the International Labour Organisations General Survey on Minimum Wage Systems.
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Look at CIA country reports (they are no secret).Also check the American contoled IMF and World bank). No one does what you want done. Yhave to chase it yourself.
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Cultural Historical Activity Theory extends Vygotsky's Activity Theory.
I am interested in garnering quantitative data relating to the varying degrees of individual participation group during collaborative digital games-based learning.
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Dear Hugh O'Donnell
I have developed a general approach to quantifying the division of labor using the example of the emergence of multicellularity. I believe that this approach can be applied to your case as well.
Check out the attached articles. And if you have any questions - write to me.
Good luck!
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Is the minimum and guaranteed income introduced in some countries a good instrument of pro-development socio-economic policy?
Are such instruments of socio-economic policy an effective anti-crisis measure on the situation of slowing economic growth?
In addition, as part of technical progress in many branches of the economy, human work is being replaced by computers, machines, robots, and artificial intelligence.
Therefore, work for people may be missing in the future. Perhaps the minimum and guaranteed income will be a good solution to this problem?
Please reply
Best wishes
Dear Friends and Colleagues of RG,
The issues of specific programs to improve the economic, financial and material situation of households as key instruments of pro-development state intervention and significant components of the socio-economic policy of the state I described in the publications:
I invite you to discussion and cooperation.
Best wishes
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Universal credit can have a good multiplier impact.
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what are the main personal ,family and economic factors that affect female participation in labour market?
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All of them
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How to analyze the work of the pedagogical adviser by analyzing the position of the job using the analysis of the workstation, based on the requirements of the labor market.
Comment analyser le travail du conseiller pédagogique en analysant la position de l'emploi à l'aide de l'analyse
du poste de travail, en fonction des exigences du marché du travail.
كيفية تحليل عمل المستشار التربوي من خلال تحليل موقف الوظيفة.
باستخدام تقنية تحليل منصب العمل ، وفقا لمتطلبات سوق العمل.
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Has the relocation of large factories from highly developed countries to countries with cheaper labor costs caused unfavorable situations of rising unemployment in some regions in your countries?
It turned out that from the global financial crisis of 2008, those countries in which the domestic industry was more developed faster.
Some industries, including large factories, have been expatriated to countries with cheaper labor costs.
For a corporation that decides to move such assembly plants, it is a business goal of saving labor costs.
However, in the city from which this factory emigrated, unemployment is rising. If it was a small town and the factory was the main employer, the problem of a significant increase in unemployment on the local market arose.
In some countries, restrictions have been introduced to limit the scale of this process of emigration of large production factories and sometimes entire branches of the economy to other countries.
How do you feel? Should the governments of individual countries regulate these issues, should liberalization be in this matter or should it be under the control of the state, i.e. the government of a given country?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
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True. Textiles has moved from India to Bangladesh & Vietnam.
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Everyone knows intuitively that technology, especially one that can develop its "intelligence" through learning, displaces and will displace people from the labor market. How do you think what other legal or social consequences, besides losing a job, may result from this? Will it affect every country where international production takes place? Will there remain places where it will still be profitable to use the work of human hands?
Thanks in advance for any thoughts.
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Because due to the implementation of artificial intelligence in manufacturing processes in enterprises, to improve logistics systems, improve the provision of information and other services offered via the Internet, so many people may lose their jobs over the next few years. Therefore, the employment law regulations should be updated with the above-mentioned problems. In addition, it is important to create legal regulations that will shape the functioning of enterprises in which all production processes will be carried out by robots equipped with artificial intelligence. An important issue is updating the tax law in accordance with the answer to the question: How should enterprises be taxed in which all manufacturing processes will be carried out by robots equipped with artificial intelligence.
Regards
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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COVID-19 has emerged globally at unprecedented speed and scale. Experts don’t know how long this virus will take to its end. Various Nations have lock down whole country to prevent spread COVID-19. As a result of the lockdown, the commercial and business activities have been seriously affected and the availability of the business resources such as workmen, material, transport etc. has been troubled. The movement of the shipping lines carrying the material from the affected countries has also halted and quarantine has been imposed on them.
As a result of all above, I can anticipate a new market or new world post COVID-19 crisis.
Can I request to experts to presents their opinion on this new market post COVID-19 crisis ?
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Really, not only markets, but all aspect of our life on the Earth...
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I think it is necessary to eradicate the exclusion. Social exclusion is a problem worldwide, whether due to rights, resources or basic capacities (labor market, education, etc.)
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It is important because we must learn to work with the characteristics and qualities of other people. Also through integration we can end exclusion.
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The technological revolution Industry 4.0 is currently one of the major determinants of the economic development of highly developed and developing countries.
Therefore, the issue of Industry 4.0 should be introduced as an additional subject in studies in the fields of management, administration, economics, IT, master of business administration, etc.
In view of the above, I am asking you: What new professions will be created on the labor market in the future due to the development of the Industry 4.0 technological revolution?
Please reply. I invite you to the discussion
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Dariusz Prokopowicz Depending on the requirements of the developing industry, new professions are formed day by day. With Industry 4.0, it is expected that there will be significant changes in the job descriptions and types as well as in many areas from the industry to the management organization. I have compiled the 10 professional groups that are planned to be brought with Industry 4.0.
1. Industrial Data Science
2. Robot Coordinator
3. IT / IoT Solution Architecture
4. Industrial Computer Engineering / Programming
5. Cloud Computing Expertise
6. Data Security Expertise
7. Network Development Engineering
8. 3-D Printer Engineering
9. Industrial User Interface Design
10. Wearable Technology Designer
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Much has been discussed about the policy that best contributes to the incorporation into the labor market of young workers. In this discussion, I liked to focus the question on three points of view, higher education, vocational or professional training or the promotion by the governments of entrepreneurship and self-employment of young people. Regarding university education, during the last half century it has been seen as a tool for social mobility. However, many countries with high rates of university graduates have high levels of youth unemployment and important percentages of graduates work below their qualifications, while inequalities in the labor market grow. I thank you in advance for your opinions.
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Matching efficiency is a concept related to functioning of the labor market. Poor matching means that both open vacancies and unemployed people exist simultaneously at the same travel-to-work area. Are you familiar with related theories, methodologies or tools? I am grateful, if you could hint how to approach research topics and applications related to this phenomenon or other fields in which matching efficiency concepts or similar frameworks are applied.
An ethical note: This is not a formal learning task given to me by others.
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Dear, I have a model with several labor market institutions and i want to show (in a separate table) all the interaction effects between them.
My doubt is about the methodology: is more correct to add interaction terms one at time (progressively) to my baseline equation or have I to estimate a single baseline equation for each interaction term?
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In your case, for example, if you want to determine if the effect of an extra year of job experience has a different effect on productivity (for instance) when someone working in the public institution versus working in the private sector. You should construct the model in order to consider whether or not this is the case. To run this form of model with interaction term you should also construct a new variable (e.g., job experience*public sector employment) and then to determine if the effect of an extra year of job experience has a different effect on productivity (measured through TFP, for example) when someone is working in a public sector versus working in the private sector. Your conclusion would be that the effect of the job experience does or does not differ depending on whether one works in a public sector or not. Constructing the new variable with interaction term is a technical matter depending what type of software you use. Hope it helps. Good luck!
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I am working on wage differential between immigrants and natives and I see in the literature mostly hourly wage has been used to identify the earnings of individual I am just curious if there is any theory or intuition behind that.
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Dear Taghi,
In the case of economic history the following considerations may be relevant for hourly wage:
We come to man-hours from several considerations. It a more stable measure than say a day’s labor. It appears as a more standard measure of value than say an ounce of gold to measure/price different skills such as:
2 hour work of a jeweler = 1 hour work of a common laborer. Again:
Beaver killed per hour of hunting = Deer killed per hour of hunting.
It appear that Marx would argue that that capitalist buys labor power, and then decides how many man-hours the workman should work.
The classics/neo-classics moved from a wage-fund theory to a marginal productivity theory (MPT). If appears that the MPT would breakdown if a fall in man-hour leads to an increase in efficiency.
In the case where immigrants are low-income, the use of wage-hour might be pragmatic, that is, the minimum wage rate is per hour.
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In many developing countries the trend of female education rate is rising, the fertility rate is declining, and governmental support is increasing for the female labor market participation. Then, why females from those countries are withdrawing from the labor market?
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Women continue to work in the agricultural sector, livestock and as domestic workers, but are not recognized as labour force and hence do not fall under ILO. Women labour force has not declined, rather it has increased, but is not recognized officially or is not documented.
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Can someone help me understand the various macroeconomic models that can be used when analyzing the effects of trade policy reform(under Structural Adjustment Program) on the agricultural labor?
Your help will be highly appreciated
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A maceoeconomic modelling must take into account major events that has effected the data, for example, the Plaza Accord of September(1985), the Lourve Accord(1987, Q1), the Asian Finacial Crisis(1999) and the Global Finaxial Crisis(2007 to 2009).
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Is the significance of human capital changing due to the ongoing fourth technological revolution known as Industry 4.0? Can the role of human capital decrease in the perspective of the next 20-30 years due to the development of Information Technology Industry 4.0? How will the labor market change? Will robotics change the labor market by reducing jobs for people? Will new kinds of professions and jobs for people be created?
The current technological revolution, known as Industry 4.0, is determined by the development of the following technologies of advanced information processing: Big Data database technologies, cloud computing, machine learning, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, Business Intelligence and other advanced data mining technologies. How will the current technological revolution Industry 4.0 change the labor market in the next 20-30 years?
Some analyzes of the prospects for the development of labor markets suggest that due to the development of information technology Industry 4.0 in 2030, 70 percent. professions and workplaces will be new types of professions, specializations, etc. in the scope of work performed by people, whose names we do not know yet.
Will new types of professions and workplaces for people be created in connection with the development of Information Technology Industry 4.0, which will be a kind of buffer for the reduction of other jobs due to progressive robotization, implementation of artificial intelligence, Internet of Things to the processes of production of goods?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
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In a fast-changing and increasingly interconnected world that demands more individual and collective contributions than ever before, we may have to bridge the hitherto somewhat artificial divide between human capital and social capital. Synergizing—perhaps even integrating—human capital and social capital summons practical and research insights into how individual-based knowledge, skills, and abilities can be developed both singly and in unison with network-based knowledge, skills, and abilities for the (higher) purpose of creating organizational value. From this perspective, it would therefore appear that significance does not lie so much in a new "definition" of human capital but, rather, in how it might be fructified more effectively in social capital applications.
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In the recent years a phenomenon has been observed that women are withdrawing from the labor market(including USA and some developing countries). Though the trend is not universal, but the ILO statistics shows a gradual falling trend. On the one hand the level of education for women is rising, the fertility rate for women is falling(which is seen as the major constraint for women labor force participation),wage rate is rising.On the other hand few women choose not to join labor force. In this given situation why women will choose to withdraw from the labor market....Why this irrational choice?
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Thank you very much Marco for your insight. I have few points to make.
First, Irrationality for me has a limited definition. When everything is conduce for women employment if she is not joining or working women withdrawing from labor market then it is an irrational CHOICE.
Second, this issue has two sides: one is demand side of female labor force participation and the other is supply side. For supply we may blame culture, where women participation in labor force is not encouraged.But if there is low demand (not enough job), women may face challenge.
Third, women withdrawing from labor force is not only seen in India(I am an Indian), it is also seen in many developed countries.
Prafulla
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Dear All,
I am investigating the effects of a shock to education to the structure of the labour market in Indonesia. For this, I am trying to access Indonesian inter-censal survey data from 1995 (SUPAS 1995) and labour force surveys from 1986-1999 (SAKERNAS 1986-1999), however I would prefer to not go via the faceless Indonesian Bureau of Statistics as I think that with bureaucracy I will not get the data fast enough. Is there a way in which I can more easily access the datasets?
The data in question has already been used by other researchers. This is for an undergraduate dissertation and I do not currently intend to publish my results.
Many thanks for your help.
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I have to ask, did you get access to the Indonesian SUPAS 1995 data?
Best,
Elsa
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Currently, I am working on the integration process of immigrants into German labor market. I consider different migrant cohorts: muslim, balkan, East EU and West EU considering their migration type (refugee/economic/family) and year of arrival (1980s/1990s/2000/during migration crisis). My main concern is the failure integration of some cohorts (e.g. Muslim). There are two main arguments provided in public and academia to answer that failure. One states that it is mainly because of their cultural differences and they stick to their cultural norms, traditions and origin identity therefore it makes significant barriers to their integration process. This idea usually has been supported by right wing politics and nationalist populists. The opposite attitude highlight the economic discrimination against some specific group of immigrants who are culturally more different than natives.
I would be so happy if you introduce me some highly cited studies related to the described discussion.
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I think work by Saskia Sassen might be a good juxtaposition or stimulant for your query. For instance, the connections between financial labor, “savage sorting”, and racialization in her books and most recent one - Expulsions.
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Which jobs do you think are worse for their lack of workers' rights? Please let us have specific examples from various countries and types of work (the worst jobs you can think / know of)
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Generally speaking while not referring to any country I may say that the worst kind of job of workers rights is no job at all or in other words joblessness. There are many who would like to at least have some job. There are many who would like to at least have some job.
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Your country's workforce ready for the changes in Industrial Revolution 4.0?
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Dear Rafiq Idris,
The current technological revolution described as Industry 4.0 is motivated by the development of the following factors:
Big Data database technologies, cloud computing, machine learning, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, Business Intelligence and other advanced data mining technologies.
Best wishes
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To make an econometric study.
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Good night. Nowdays there are other variables that can affect both Ld et LS: : spatial determiant of labour supply .
Thoses variables can affect and explain many externalities rather then classic supply and individual demand . Few researches have been made to deal and to try to explain spatial determinants of Labor market.
I can help you if you want and send you my PDH( the individual determinants of unemployment duration in Tunisia: models and modalities ) and some of my project dealing with labor market and spatial correlation.
Best Regards
Anis
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I work on research on active labor market policies. However, I have found few studies that would address the different external environment impacts on the effectiveness of these policies. I am particularly interested in whether these policies work differently in regions with high and low unemployment rates. Does anyone know about examples of such studies?
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Dear Miroslav,
well, the literature shows that the effects are heterogenous, when it comes to the different policy actions. It is very important to ask such questions and compare outcomes of programmes. For example, I was part of a team that evaluated ALMP in the Czech Republic and there were heterogenious impacts of re-trainings, start-up subsidies for unemployed and other ALMP tools. We also observed different impacts of subsidies that were allocated from ERDF in the Czech Republic at the firm level. The truth is usually at the bottom of the glass, and thus, we need to conduct evaluation studies to know more :-).
Without data and analyses, hard to guess ;-)
Best,
Ondřej
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In some countries where the model of the classical trade sector prevailed, in which there were many small stores, including specialized for specific product and service offerings serving local markets of various customer segments, the emergence of large-scale stores, discount stores, supermarkets and hypermarkets proved to be a threat to existing small local stores.
Many small shops ceased to function. This could have an adverse effect on the local labor market. How is this rated in your countries?
Are the confederations developing the development of small local stores developed? Are these small local stores affiliated, economic chambers are set up to defend this trade segment in your countries?
Do small trade companies and small stores in your countries are threatened by developing large-scale stores through hypermarkets?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
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In Indonesia, modern stores, including modern minimarkets, supermarkets, or hypermarkets are the real threat for traditional stores. Besides their attractiveness to shopping (such as range of products, location, or longer business hours), it is also caused by the shifting trend to shopping among people, especially younger ages. They try to minimize human interaction, pay cashless, and make modern stores as a lifestyle. Eventhough modern market are allowed to operate nationally, due to higher autonomy among local government create some city/ regions deny modern markets. Others try to protect traditional business through stricter regulation, such as minimum distance from local markets, location requirements, length business hours, etc. On the other hand, some local stores make innovation through enhance their personal touch to consumers, provide delivery service, and diversify their products.
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I’m looking for the experts who could tell me something about e-commerce in the context of labour market in Asia. Maybe you have any experience or knowledge in this issue?
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Anjay Kumar Mishra, I'm looking for answers to such questions as: What elements of customer value in e-commerce depend most on human resources? What is their role in creating value for the company? With which elements of competence is there the biggest problem in e-commerce, which are the most important ones and, at the same time, are lacking (problems with knowledge, skills or attitudes)?
Are there such workers, with such characteristics, in Asian labour markets, or with which characteristics is there the greatest problem there, or which characteristics are at a particularly high level? Are there differences between workers in e-commerce in Asia and in other parts of the world (skills, qualifications, experience, mentality, commitment, creativity, etc.)?
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These types of questions have appeared many times in every era of the technological and industrial revolution, the period of accelerating technological development. These types of questions have already appeared in the periods of increasing the scale of objectification, arming technical human labor, from when the processes of manufacturing goods in manufactories transformed into mass production. This was the case during the Industrial Revolution of the XIX century, when the invention of a steam engine significantly accelerated the development of industry and mass production. Then, the introduction of tape production in various branches of mass production in the early twentieth century. In the second half of the twentieth century, ie in the era of subsequent stages of mechanization, automation, then the computerization of the production of many mass goods, this question appears again. Through these periods of technological progress, national economies have been transforming structurally from agricultural, industrial to modern-day domination of services. At the same time, the importance of new generation factors, which include information, technology, entrepreneurship and innovation, was gradually growing. Some branches of industry were shrinking, others were growing in the whole production of goods in the economy. At the same time, new professions, professions and specializations of human work were created, related to information, IT, analytical and technological services related to the development of new fields of knowledge and technology. So the earlier fears about the lack of work for people in connection with the technical progress that took place over the last several hundred years turned out to be essentially exaggerated. However, currently the same questions reappear: Can the development of robotization and computerization cause a significant rise in unemployment in the future? If such questions arise, then we are dealing with another era of technical progress or another technological revolution. The attributes of this revolution are also increasingly added to the development of new online media, computerized computing techniques, artificial intelligence, machine learning, Big Data, etc. in the applications of such areas of knowledge and science as biotechnology, metrology, ecology, energy, communication, medicine and many other fields of life science and new tech. In connection with the above, please answer the question: Can the development of robotization and computerization cause a significant increase in unemployment in the future?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
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The problem is not technological and scientific progress but the barbaric unfair and egocentric usage of its immense possibilities in the name of profit maximization ,regardless of the effects it has on fellow human beings globallyi.in a good society,this kind of progress should be accompanied with measures to protect the weakest,reeducate the people who loose their jobs and need new ones .and distribute the financial benefits not only to the entrepreneurs but some part to society as whole
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I am researching about labour market and industrial relations trends in Germany using a panel dataset composed of companies . For my investigation is critical to capture the regional differences among companies performances. For that issue I think that it´s not enough to take into account the traditional differences among West and East regions. I have read some papers alerting the growing economic divergence among Northern, Southern and Eastern, but none of them deal directly with the problem and neither analyze it causes.
Could you recommend me a paper/investigation about this issue?
Thank you in advace for your answer.
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Hi Gonzalo, thank very much you for your answer. I am agree with you: industrial relations institutions are critical factors in explaining economic divergence among western and eastern lander. But actually I am looking for academic literature that deal with the growing divergence among northen and southern regions. This article in The Economist reflects the topic I am referring to:
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The theory of optimal taxation is often based on the neoclassical standard model of the labor market. That model includes the assumption that a household can choose freely how much to work and how much to enjoy leisure time. In such a framework, households derive utility from consumption c and leisure time z: u(c,z), where total time T is divided between labor l and leisure z, i.e. T = l + z. The time spent on labor is remunerated at wage w, so that households have an income y = wl that they can then consume.
In reality, however, households do not have the freedom of that continuous labor-leisure choice. It's rather the binary choice to accept a job or not. Moreover, for example, the neoclassical model predicts that a minimum wage causes unemployment. We do not observe this in reality.
Given the shortcomings of the neoclassical model of the labor market, how useful is it for a) advancing economic theory on optimal taxation and b) informing policy making? Is there a better alternative?
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Dear Max,
Taxes are not only on wage income, wL, but on other income such as capital income as well, say I. So your budget constraint should include the I term as well to read:
Y = WL + I.
So, tax effect should be written as Y = (wL +I)(1-t)
According A. Atkinson and J. Stiglitz, book, “Lecture on Public Economics.” Princeton, 2015, the choice is wider than between just leisure and work, to include “market versus home production,…taxed versus untaxed pecuniary returns.” (p. 47) From the broader views, income and substitution effect come into play, and any prediction of tax impact is ambiguous. One then has to resort to empirical evidence to find out the impact.
The classical alternative model provided by Adam Smith is based on perfect competition. One labor economic text states it this way: “…labor market participants in search of their own selfish goals attain an outcome that no one in the market consciously sought to achieve.” (George Borjas, “Labor Economics, 3rd Edition, McGraw Hill, 2005, p. 163)
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How the curriculum is updated to suit the labor market
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Curriculum need to be developed based on the industry requirements. If our curriculum is line with industry requirements so graduate student can easily find job in the labour market.
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Am working on a paper to estimate the returns to education keen to adopt an IV approach but was interested to model for non-participation in the labor market in this to mean accounting for individuals who reported to have zero wages and are within the working age basically due to unemployment which is indeed a serious economic problem in developing countries that can not be ignored. Any insights on how i can go about it in STATA kindly
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Hi Binto, yes in wage estimation Hackman is a good fit, but often hard to find variables to allow for the exclusion restriction. In stata, you can run a probit and obtain the IMR and use it as an additional explanatory variable in the second stage regression, and see whether it is significant. Alternatively, Stata can do it for you automatically using the heckman command. type "help heckman" in stata to see some examples. Good luck!
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Tough Q/A
Q
The 4th I R is about technology, business, communication but it's also about teach, learn and society.
1. If the workforce doesn't keep up with peace of transformations, will not keep pace with the labor market, so how the millions of new jobs be filled?
2. How can be secure the future of those whose jobs will be disrupted by digitization?
3 Global digital platforms have to conform to with national rules and regulations, but how can they be strengthened?
HE are now scheming algorithm that will shape our joint future. We are not allowed get it wrong.
Higher Education, but also business and local communities should be involved into a win-win-win draw, getting solutions that really work for us and future generations.
Should be an A “Just_in_Time Graduates, Shifting Academic Models?
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A variety of questions were posed and I will only address some of them in an attempt to encourage others to share ideas.
1. Not all of the millions of new jobs will be filled, especially if employers are seeking candidates with different skills, talent, education, and experience than employers are seeking.
  • In the US, many employers seem to prefer leaving a position vacant than to hire poorly.
2. Workers who are disrupted (i.e., displaced) by digitization are generally unlikely to feel secure about the future, unless they have more attractive options.
3. I am not sure global digital platforms always conform to national rules and regulations. Sometimes, innovation and pioneering organizations push the boundaries and might even establish norms.
The concept of a just-in-time set of (college) graduates implies almost perfect knowledge of labor markets several years in advance. As an economics professor who watches students change majors, it becomes obvious that students are refining their aspirations as they acquire more perspective and information. They better understand their strengths and limitations. They also start to become more realistic about jobs and careers.
However, it seems more important to realize that education is not typically (job) training as much as it is education (e.g., which might develop, enhance, or expand critical and analytical thinking skills) and higher levels of education may allow a potential employee to be more easily trained.
Moreover, the dramatically lower unemployment rates of more educated workers in the US may be an indication that more educated workers are able to adapt to transition to different jobs or careers. The just-in-time model of employment for new graduates may not capture changes in the demand for certain types of labor, especially when the demand for labor decreases. For example, the worker trained as a typewriter repair specialist may be really uncomfortable when word processing effectively almost eliminates the demand for typewriter repair.
I hope to read other ideas.
Rob