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Should investment banks become more actively involved in the processes of supporting the green transformation of the economy by significantly scaling up green financing?
In my opinion, investment banks should play a key role in green financing processes, given their strategic importance in capital allocation and their ability to mobilize vast financial resources. The green transformation of the economy, which is necessary to combat climate change and environmental degradation, requires huge financial resources that far exceed the capacity of the public sector. Investment banks, as institutions that manage large investment portfolios and engage in large-scale projects, have a unique ability to support green initiatives by financing renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and green technology projects. Investment banks have both the potential and the responsibility to become more actively involved in green financing processes. Their activities can play a key role in accelerating the green transformation of the economy, while opening up new investment prospects. However, this requires adequate preparation, an innovative approach to risk management, and close cooperation with the public and private sectors.
I have described the key issues of the green economy transformation issue in the following article:
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT AS A KEY ELEMENT OF THE PRO-ECOLOGICAL TRANSFORMATION OF THE ECONOMY TOWARDS GREEN ECONOMY AND CIRCULAR ECONOMY
And what is your opinion on this topic?
What is your opinion on this issue?
Please answer,
I invite everyone to join the discussion,
Thank you very much,
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Is it feasible for third world countries to adept the ideas of green financing where they are a little contributor in the global warming?
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The literature on the subject is very poor. As a result, many companies use inappropriate methods, which are based on fixed cost sharing.
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Contribution margin
Pvu = unit selling price
Cvu = unit variable cost
Contribution margin = Pvu - Cvu
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What investments, including pro-environmental and pro-social projects that increase safety and living conditions for residents can be implemented by urban agglomerations within the framework of urban plans for adaptation to climate change, i.e. primarily to the progressive process of global warming?
What sources of external funding can money come from to implement the aforementioned green urban investments, including pro-climate, pro-environmental and pro-social projects that increase safety and living conditions for residents of urban agglomerations?
Within the framework of green investments, including pro-climate, pro-environmental and pro-social projects that increase safety and living conditions for residents of urban agglomerations within the framework of urban plans for adaptation to climate change, i.e. primarily to the progressive process of global warming can implement various measures, within which the creation of additional parks, including large parks and pocket parks, floral meadows, lawns and other green areas, rainwater harvesting ponds, rainwater catchment systems used for watering urban greenery and clearing drainage systems to discharge excess rainwater into rivers, building wastewater treatment plants to purify water in rivers and restore biodivers' natural ecosystems, etc. stand out.
In order to increase the scale of implementation of pro-climate, pro-environmental and pro-social projects to increase the safety and living conditions of urban agglomeration residents, financial support is necessary, which can come from various sources in the framework of external financing. On the one hand, it can be green external financing provided on commercial or semi-commercial terms by financial institutions, including commercial banks and investment funds. On the other hand, it can also be financing under grants from the state's public finance system, grants to cities from the central state budget, or from the public finance system of the local government budget. Financing of municipal pro-climate, pro-environmental and pro-social investments can also be provided through philanthropy implemented by commercially operating companies and enterprises in a particular municipality, city. Besides, the municipality can reconstruct its financial budget on both the revenue and expenditure side with a view to increasing the scale of implementation of pro-climate, pro-environmental and pro-social projects that increase the safety and living conditions of residents of the urban agglomeration.
I am conducting research on this issue. I have included the conclusions of my research in the following article:
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT AS A KEY ELEMENT OF THE PRO-ECOLOGICAL TRANSFORMATION OF THE ECONOMY TOWARDS GREEN ECONOMY AND CIRCULAR ECONOMY
I invite you to get acquainted with the issues described in the publications given above and to scientific cooperation in these issues.
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:
From what sources of external funding can money come in order to implement the aforementioned green urban investments, including pro-climate, pro-environmental and pro-social projects that increase the safety and living conditions of residents of the urban agglomeration?
What investments, including pro-climate, pro-environmental and pro-social ventures that increase safety and living conditions for residents can be implemented by urban agglomerations within the framework of municipal plans for adaptation to climate change, i.e. primarily to the progressive process of global warming?
What kind of investments can cities implement as part of urban climate change adaptation plans?
What do you think about this topic?
What is your opinion on this issue?
Please answer,
I invite everyone to join the discussion,
Thank you very much,
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
The above text is entirely my own work written by me on the basis of my research.
In writing this text, I did not use other sources or automatic text generation systems.
Copyright by Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Urban agglomerations must adopt advanced municipal strategies for climate change adaptation and global warming mitigation. Key investments include smart infrastructure utilizing IoT and AI for real-time resource management. Climate-resilient urban design, featuring adaptive materials and elevated structures, is crucial. Establishing extensive green networks, such as green belts, vertical gardens, and urban forests, sequesters carbon and mitigates heat islands. Advanced water management systems, like permeable pavements and green roofs, reduce flooding. Large-scale renewable energy projects integrated with smart grids ensure efficient energy distribution. Expanding electric and autonomous public transport lowers emissions and enhances mobility. Utilizing big data for climate monitoring and involving citizens in adaptation planning are essential. These strategies, backed by robust policies and financial incentives, significantly bolster urban resilience to climate change.
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What could be the factors for the decline in the overall level of investment in the economy despite the available various instruments for external financing of economic activity, low inflation, normalized economic situation?
What could be the factors of the demonstrated for the period of the last few quarters decline in the overall level of investment in the economy in a situation characterized, among others, by such factors of influence on economic processes as available various programs and instruments of external financing of economic activity, low inflation, low unemployment, normalized general economic, macroeconomic situation, etc.?
According to the prevailing macroeconomic forecasts, the Polish economy in 2024 and 2025 should be in a trend of improving economic growth rates. In February and March 2024, inflation fell to a low level close to the inflation target. In addition, in the second half of 2023, there was a clear improvement in the residential real estate sector, due to the introduction of a government program to activate the purchase of real estate by citizens on credit, i.e. the “2% Safe Credit” program.” A year ago, the macroeconomic situation in Poland indexically looked much weaker than now. The level of economic growth was lower and was below zero, i.e. there was a recession. This was the second recession since the Covid-19 pandemic, i.e. since 2020, and the first after the end of the pandemic. The recession of the first half of 2023 was due to a decline in the economic activity of companies and businesses, as a result of the various crises that occurred during and after the Covid-19 pandemic. These downturn factors include the pandemic economic crisis with the deep recession of the economy, which occurred mainly during the first wave of the pandemic, i.e. in the spring of 2020. In addition to this, the rapid increase in inflation, which in Poland began from the 2nd quarter of 2021. This growth continued until February 2023, when consumer inflation, according to the Central Statistical Office, reached 18.4 percent. In 2022, Poland experienced a deep energy crisis generated by the increase in fossil fuel prices. The energy crisis was deep in Poland due to the still high share of up to three-fourths of conventional energy sources, i.e. based on burning fossils, mainly coal and lignite, against the background of the overall mix of energy sources. The increase in costs associated with high fossil fuel prices, high energy prices, and more expensive bank loans generated a downturn in the economy in the 2022-2023 period. The increase in interest rates on bank loans, including business loans, investment loans offered to companies and businesses by commercial banks was a derivative of the anti-inflationary raising of interest rates by the central bank, i.e. the National Bank of Poland, which lasted from October 2021 to September 2022. In addition, the changes in the fiscal system carried out in 2022 under the government's Polish Deal program also caused many organizational and financial problems in a significant part of the functioning business entities. In addition, all of the aforementioned crises and the changes applied by the central bank in terms of the monetary policy pursued also negatively affected the PLN exchange rate against other currencies and generated a high amplitude of changes in the PLN exchange rate, which also negatively affected many business entities operating in non-financial sectors of the economy. The increased scale of exchange rate volatility primarily negatively affected enterprises that exported a significant part or most of their production to countries with a different currency. The amount and share in terms of production of products against the economy for such enterprises has increased significantly since 2004, when Poland became a member of the European Union. An important issue confirming the not-so-good economic and financial situation of companies and enterprises in Poland recently is the fact that in 2023 the historically largest scale of declared bankruptcies of business entities and the termination of their activities occurred. All of the above-mentioned issues have negatively affected the operation of many companies and enterprises operating in Poland over the past few years. Currently, in 2024, positive in its content forecasts of macroeconomic developments in the domestic economy determined for the next few quarters prevail. In addition to the currently low inflation and stabilized economic situation, there has recently emerged an important pro-development factor, which is additional subsidies from the European Union. Well, at the end of 2023, previously granted EU subsidies and low-interest loans were unblocked for Poland under a financial program referred to as the National Recovery Plan. Because the funding Poland will receive in the 2024-2025 period from the National Reconstruction Plan program and also funding under the European Union's Cohesion Programs will be historically record high. Consequently, many new investment projects will probably be carried out using this money. In view of the above, the macroeconomic situation is highly complex and presents an ambiguous picture when it comes to diagnosing the sources of the decline in investment.
The key issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets are described in my article below:
IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY
IMPACT OF THE SARS-COV-2 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON GLOBALIZATION PROCESSES
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:
What could be the factors of the demonstrated for the period of the last few quarters decline in the overall level of investment in the economy in a situation characterized, among others, by such factors of influence on economic processes as available various programs and instruments for external financing of economic activity, low inflation, low unemployment, normalized general economic, macroeconomic situation, etc.?
What could be the factors for the decline in the overall level of investment in the economy despite the available various instruments for external financing of economic activity, low inflation, normalized economic situation?
What do you think about this topic?
What is your opinion on this issue?
Please answer,
I invite everyone to join the discussion,
Thank you very much,
Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
The above text is entirely my own work written by me on the basis of my research.
In writing this text, I did not use other sources or automatic text generation systems.
Copyright by Dariusz Prokopowicz
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I think there are a couple of explanations for that. From a top-down perspective, one could argue that the decline in investments is the result of the change in the global macro backdrop particularly after the GFC, as the main driver of investments, namely growth / economic activity, has been replaced with global liquidity(thanks to QE).
Also, low, if not negative, rates might also have an impact as in an environment of declining return on investments (RoI), the focus switched to those projects that has the potential to offer high RoIs, such as start-ups, tech companies etc.
On top, the de-globalization trends and rising protectionism has curbed foreign direct investment flows, particularly in emerging markets, which negatively affect the investment prospects.
From a bottom-up perspective, I would argue that the decline in RoI is responsible. Given the low RoI levels, most of the corporates turned their focus to shareholders, and start offering share buybacks, or increasing their dividends etc.
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How should credit risk management systems and procedures be improved at investment banks investing clients' money in securities so as to significantly reduce the levels of potential systemic credit risk generated and reduce the frequency and scale of financial crises developing?
The bankruptcy of Silicon Valey Bank and Signatire Bank, i.e. banks operating within the framework of investment banking based on equity investments in securities has resulted in investor anxiety, increased levels of uncertainty in financial markets, including equity markets, securities markets. Once again, the question of the possibility of a repetition of the situation of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 has resurfaced, with central banks intervening swiftly and efficiently to fully guarantee all deposits and bank deposits above the statutory limits set for deposit guarantee institutions. This raises the debatable question of why, 15 years after the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, there are still cases of large investment banks failing when, moments afterwards, the central bank announces the full guarantee of all bank deposits and bank deposits and without quota limits in each of the remaining functioning banks. And this is what happened moments after Silicon Valey Bank and Signatire Bank declared bankruptcy. In addition to this, another debatable issue arises regarding the potential for an increase in the scale of moral hazard in both the commercial and investment banking community as well as in bank customers, which could lead to a significant increase in the level of acceptable investment, credit, liquidity, debt, etc. risks for many businesses. If this were to happen, the result could be an increase in systemic credit risk in the banking sector, which is hardly the purpose of central banking, but rather the opposite. But, on the other hand, some central banks also carry out financial operations on international financial markets, often making substantial revenues and profits. This raises a third debatable issue, which is to consider the key priorities of central banks' activities in addition to looking after the value of money and the stability of the banking system. The central bank's participation in the process of injecting additional money into the economy through the purchase of treasury bonds and carrying out financial operations in the international financial markets, including the foreign exchange markets and with the use of securities to a significant extent can influence the formation of the national currency exchange rate on the one hand and can be a way to generate profits for the central bank on the other. Obviously, the issue of the stability of financial markets, the security of the banking system, the formation of the value of the currency within a certain range, not allowing too high a level of overcredit for investment processes carried out by various economic entities also operating in non-financial sectors of the economy and not allowing too high a level of systemic credit risk in banking are key priorities. These priorities are legally anchored both in the Constitution, i.e. the Basic Law, and in the legal norms defining the functioning of the central bank. Of course, the high-security banking system thus built does not exempt commercial banks and investment banks from the need to continually improve their credit risk management systems. New information technologies and Industry 4.0 are emerging and are also being implemented into banking. New risk factors that are difficult to predict are emerging, such as the occurrence of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic in 2020. Situations continue to arise where the optimum levels of credit risk are exceeded with regard to the investment banks' equity investments in securities. Consequently, there is still a high degree of possibility that investment banks operating in the capital markets may permanently lose liquidity as a result of certain investment decisions and the quality of the credit risk management improvement process carried out. Also, the banking supervisory institutions, the institutions supervising the financial system should review the issue of the adequacy of the prudential instruments applied by banks, instruments for controlling credit risk, liquidity risk, debt risk, operational risk, market risk, foreign exchange risk, interest rate risk, cyber risk, etc. in view of the changing reality in which banks and the whole banking system operate. It is therefore necessary, in this regard, for banking supervisory institutions, institutions overseeing the financial system, to carry out a kind of ongoing monitoring of the adequacy of the credit risk management systems applied in banks and other risk categories, in order to continually answer the question of whether these systems have become obsolete in the context of the technological progress taking place and the emergence of new risk factors not previously known or not previously present on a large scale in the banks' environment or occurring in their customers. Therefore, both the financial supervisory institutions and the risk management departments of commercial banks, deposit and credit banks and investment banks are once again reviewing the adequacy of the applied prudential and risk control instruments, procedures and credit risk management systems in relation to the situation of the growth of investment and other risks, the possibility of a deepening of the downturn in the economy, in the reality of high inflation, high interest rates, the possibility of stagflation.
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:
How should credit risk management systems and procedures be improved at investment banks investing investor clients' money in securities so as to significantly reduce the levels of potential systemic credit risk generated and reduce the frequency and scale of the development of financial crises?
What do you think about this subject?
What is your opinion on this subject?
Please respond,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Warm regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Will the recent economic crises, i.e. the 2020 pandemic economic crisis and the 2022 energy crisis, soon be followed by a financial crisis in the banking sector and/or a debt crisis in the public finances of states?
When, in March 2020, following the WHO's declaration of a global epidemic or pandemic, there was a panic sell-off of investment assets on the capital markets and the risk of a deep, double-digit recession of the economy emerged, central banks cut interest rates and the governments of some countries launched financial assistance programmes on a record scale, consisting of non-refundable financial subsidies for commercially operating companies and enterprises in various sectors of the economy, refinancing of fixed costs of economic activity, deferral of payments of contributions to the social security system, tax reductions, etc., the state's financial resources for these large assistance programmes will be used to finance the crisis. The state drew its financial resources for these large financial aid programmes from additional issues of treasury bonds, which were purchased by commercial banks, investment banks, enterprises, citizens and in some countries, such as Poland, mainly by the central bank. Additional, huge amounts of money introduced into the economy without being covered by manufactured products and services, as predicted in mid-2020, generated a strong increase in inflation on the basis of an increase in the prices of raw materials, products and services, which began almost at the beginning of 2021. Additional large amounts of money without coverage in economic goods in some countries such as Poland were introduced into the economy outside the budget, i.e. by transferring this additional money to special purpose funds created for this purpose functioning in institutional government agencies bypassing the state budget. These institutions distributed this money in the form of mainly non-refundable subsidies to companies and enterprises, some of which did not function because they were temporarily in lockdowns introduced by the government. During the 2020 pandemic economic crisis, therefore, interventionist, historically large bailout programmes based on so-called Crisis Shields were applied, and in some countries mainly on the basis of issuing and selling to commercial banks, companies and citizens additional Treasury bond issues. Many banks purchased these treasury bonds in large quantities when, prior to the pandemic, inflation and interest rates were much lower than in the 2021 - 2023 period. During the 2020 pandemic, central banks further reduced interest rates to interventionist low levels. Some commercial and investment banks, with the economic downturn and recession deepening during the pandemic, bought government bonds treating these instruments as safe assets during the economic crisis and as they reduced the scale of their lending and/or investments in securities generating higher levels of investment and credit risk such as shares issued by listed companies due to the recession of the economy. However, when central banks started a cycle of interest rate increases from 2021 and 2022 onwards, then the prices of previously issued government bonds with lower interest rates on stock exchanges began to fall, as these securities lost their previous attractiveness. At that point, rating agencies began to downgrade the ratings of banks that had previously purchased large volumes of previously issued sovereign bonds with significantly lower interest rates, in view of the average market interest rate levels already prevailing from 2022 onwards, then the problem was recognised. This problem was the potential insolvency and large financial losses of these banks. However, when analysed on a macroeconomic level, the problem is now much broader. Well, public debts have increased strongly in many countries after the pandemic economic crisis of 2020. The increase in inflation already predicted from mid-2020, which started to materialise from 2021, caused central banks to raise interest rates. On the one hand, some investment banks like Silicon Valey Bank and Signature Bank, which had invested a large part of their funds in government bonds just before the cornovirus pandemic at several times lower oproc. levels for these financial instruments, generated large financial losses and collapsed. On the other hand, thanks to high inflation, the real value of public debt in many countries is falling.
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:
Following the recent economic crises, i.e. the 2020 pandemic economic crisis and the 2022 energy crisis, will there soon be a financial crisis in the banking sector and/or a debt crisis in the public finances of countries?
What do you think about this topic?
What is your opinion on this subject?
Please respond,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Warm regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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The following 2 papers give some answers to your query, dear Duan Xian Xiang
Both of my papers contain relevant formulae as per your query Duan Xian Xiang
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What are the key determinants of building a risk management system for investing in cryptocurrencies conducted in speculative financial operations and investment transactions carried out on online trading platforms?
In recent years, there has been a rapid development of cryptocurrencies and their applications in online payments and settlements and their treatment as alternative investment instruments. Internet-based trading platforms are being developed, where speculative trading and investment using cryptocurrencies is expanding. Some investment banks, internationally operating corporations, social media sites are creating their own cryptocurrencies. Some investment funds have been investing part of their active funds in selected cryptocurrencies for many years. However, due to the lack of a developed institutional oversight system for transactions, payments and investments using cryptocurrencies. Consequently, speculative financial operations and investment transactions carried out on online trading platforms are characterised by a high level of investment risk. Consequently, it is important to build a risk management system for investing in cryptocurrencies.
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of researchers and scientists:
What are the key determinants of building a risk management system for cryptocurrency investment conducted in speculative financial operations and investment transactions carried out on online trading platforms?
What do you think about this topic?
What is your opinion on this subject?
Please respond,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Building a risk management system for investing in cryptocurrencies involves identifying and addressing various potential risks associated with speculative financial operations and investment transactions conducted on online trading platforms. Some key determinants of building such a system include:
  1. Understanding the Market: A solid understanding of the cryptocurrency market is essential for managing risks associated with investments in cryptocurrencies. This includes knowledge of market trends, the factors that drive price movements, and an understanding of the technology behind cryptocurrencies.
  2. Setting Investment Objectives: Investors need to define their investment objectives clearly, including their risk tolerance and the expected return on investment. This can help guide investment decisions and inform the risk management strategies employed.
  3. Assessing Counterparty Risk: Investors need to assess the counterparty risk associated with their investments. This includes evaluating the reputation and financial stability of the online trading platform, as well as considering the risks associated with other parties, such as custodians and intermediaries.
  4. Implementing Risk Management Strategies: A comprehensive risk management strategy is essential for minimizing the potential risks associated with investing in cryptocurrencies. This may involve diversification of investments, setting stop-loss orders, and employing other hedging strategies.
  5. Monitoring Market Conditions: Investors must stay informed about market conditions and changes in the cryptocurrency market to identify potential risks and opportunities. This includes tracking market trends and staying up-to-date on news and events that may impact the cryptocurrency market.
  6. Regularly Evaluating and Adjusting Risk Management Strategies: Finally, investors need to regularly evaluate and adjust their risk management strategies based on market conditions and changes in their investment objectives or risk tolerance.
Here are some commonly used risk management strategies:
  1. Diversification: Diversification is a key risk management strategy that involves investing in a variety of cryptocurrencies and spreading investment across different sectors or asset classes. By diversifying, investors can reduce the risk of a single cryptocurrency or sector having a significant impact on their overall portfolio.
  2. Stop-loss orders: Stop-loss orders can be used to limit potential losses by automatically selling a cryptocurrency at a predetermined price. This strategy can be particularly useful during times of high market volatility.
  3. Hedging: Hedging involves taking positions that offset the risk of potential losses. For example, investors can hedge their cryptocurrency positions by buying put options, which allow them to sell a cryptocurrency at a predetermined price.
  4. Position sizing: Position sizing involves determining the appropriate size of each investment based on an investor's risk tolerance and investment objectives. By limiting the size of each position, investors can reduce the potential impact of any individual investment on their portfolio.
  5. Monitoring and adjusting: Monitoring market conditions and adjusting investment strategies accordingly is essential for effective risk management. Investors should regularly assess their investment strategies and make adjustments as needed to reflect changes in market conditions, investment objectives, and risk tolerance.
  6. Technical analysis: Technical analysis involves using chart patterns, indicators, and other market data to identify potential market trends and make informed investment decisions. This strategy can be particularly useful for identifying entry and exit points for cryptocurrency trades.
Key elements of an INSTITUTIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT system for investing in cryptocurrencies:
- Risk Management Policies and Procedures: Institutional investors should establish clear risk management policies and procedures to guide investment decisions and manage risk. These policies should include guidelines for selecting cryptocurrencies, setting investment objectives, and monitoring market conditions.
- Investment Committee: An investment committee comprised of experienced professionals with diverse backgrounds can help ensure that investment decisions are informed and well-considered. The committee should be responsible for setting investment policies and monitoring performance against established benchmarks.
- Due Diligence: Institutional investors should conduct thorough due diligence on potential cryptocurrency investments to assess risks and identify potential red flags. This may include evaluating the reputation of the cryptocurrency, conducting security audits, and assessing the regulatory environment.
- Diversification: Diversification is a key risk management strategy for institutional investors. By investing in a variety of cryptocurrencies and spreading investments across different sectors or asset classes, institutional investors can reduce the risk of a single cryptocurrency or sector having a significant impact on their overall portfolio.
- Risk Assessment and Monitoring: Institutional investors should regularly assess and monitor risks associated with their cryptocurrency investments. This includes monitoring market conditions, tracking the performance of individual cryptocurrencies, and identifying potential risks and opportunities.
- Contingency Planning: Institutional investors should establish contingency plans to prepare for potential market disruptions or other events that could impact their cryptocurrency investments. This may include setting up risk reserves, establishing exit strategies, and developing contingency plans for managing liquidity.
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What are the best policies to encourage partnership between the public and private sectors in the field of investment, and how can these policies be profitable for all parties?
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You are most welcome dear Othmane Touat . Wish you the best always.
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Already at least several commercial banks have created their own cryptocurrencies. Some investment funds invest part of their assets in selected cryptocurrencies. Recently, the investment bank JP Morgan has created its own cryptocurrency JPM Coin. Cryptocurrency JPM Coin will be used to settle initially a small part of the transaction, which JP Morgan performs on a daily basis for a total of about USD 6 billion.
Thanks to JPM Coin, settlements between business partners should take place immediately, ie much faster than the current standards of transfers. However, apart from accelerating the time of the transaction, what are the other goals for banks to introduce their own cryptocurrencies?
Could investment banks create a new type of collateral for transactions in the event of a possible strong loss of the USD dollar in the event of another global financial crisis connected with the currency crisis? Such a risk exists if the problem of growing public debt in the US is not resolved and banks in China cease to buy US Treasury bonds.
Do you agree with my opinion on this matter?
In view of the above, I am asking you the following question:
For what purpose do banks create their own cryptocurrencies?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
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Recently, there is a tendency to affirm that bitcoin will not be admitted as a payment currency for an “ecological” reason, that is, due to the high energy consumption that mining the cryptocurrency carries. At the same time, it seems that clients of investment banks no longer have the same interest in cryptocurrencies.
See the following link:
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How does one make their marketing mix be more agile to new channels, ever changing environment. what are the models used for this analysis and their interpretation.
our paper on MMM- complex models and interpretations to discuss the advertising effects, models- simple and complex to collate it all together.
Please read, review and suggest how we can add on to enhance our research going forward
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Well, intereyting approach, although I personally have a problem with "econometrisation" of marketing.
I like new perspectives on basic marketing concepts, for example SAVE concept instead of classic 4P
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Kindly share your experiences if you have any idea and experience regarding bitcoin.
Thanks
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Bitcoin is nothing more and nothing less than unlicensed gambling.
Details are in my book: Bitcoin: The Mother of all Scams. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B095NMLM2F
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Do you know scientific publications describing the methodologies of the analysis of development potential and creditworthiness for investment projects planned for implementation by an innovative start-up?
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Best wishes
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During the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic, the level of lending, i.e. the scale of loans granted, decreased in many banks due to the decline in economic activity of many enterprises. Despite the decline in lending, banks have not changed their credit policies applied to innovative startups, which still find it difficult to obtain a bank loan for the development of innovative business ventures in which new business concepts, new technologies and new solutions are applied in the scope of conducted or planned to start-up operations economic.
Greetings,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Are the supra-national investment investments in investment banking an important factor in the ongoing process of economic globalization?
If the increase in the scale of transnational investment investments in investment banking is faster than the rate of economic growth of the countries expressed, for example, in the Gross Domestic Product, is this the way in which economic globalization can generate additional systemic credit risks?
If in the context of these processes the diversification in profitability and income between investment banking and other types of financial institutions and non-financial business entities increases, can this situation be one of the symptoms of increasing systemic risk and the probability of the next global financial crisis appearing in the next several years?
Please reply
Best wishes
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اعتقد ذلك... ولهذا أهمية وأثر كبير في هذا الخصوص
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The Data is for Academic Research
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Thanks
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In your country, do banks cease to finance investment projects related to traditional energy based on the burning of minerals?
Do banks start to finance environmentally friendly investment projects in your country, thus supporting the processes of transformation of the economy towards the implementation of sustainable pro-ecological development?
Please, answer, comments.
I invite you to the discussion.
I pointed out the high level of relevance of the issue taken up in the above question in the article:
Please respond with what do you think about the issues described in this article?
Best wishes
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Dariusz Prokopowicz till now, Iraqi banks could not launch such projects. The reason behind that is business environment in Iraq, where no eco-friendly project.
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What kind of analysis of economic and other data provides better knowledge for investing in securities listed on the stock exchange?
Which analysis, ie fundamental or technical analysis, provides better knowledge for investing in securities listed on the stock exchange?
Thanks to which analysis, ie fundamental and technical analysis, investors achieve the best results in investing, the highest returns on investments in securities listed on the stock exchange?
Which investment strategies are the most effective? Are the most effective investment strategies based on conducting fundamental or technical analysis and maybe on a specific combination of both types of analysis?
Please reply
Best wishes
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It depends on what type of investors you are. For long-term, you need to know the fundamentals while the short-term traders look at the technical analysis patterns. These patterns reveal what is happening in the company currently. Fundamentals are behind the curve in most investment decision. We need some current indicators and the volume and price are more sensitive to B/S and P/L.
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I want to pursue phd in investment banking and management field and looking for taking admission in certain universities. They are asking me to write a research proposal before taking admission. Can you please suggest me more specific topic area‘s which need to research and make my phd worth while for my career.
i am very Thankful to everyone , thanks
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The easiest essay to write would be to speculate about how, in the next decade or two, AI and cryptocurrencies are going to change the structure and activity of these industries and the ways they will be regulated and policed.
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Most prefered:- Investment optimization as an extension of Unit Commitment for a Portfolio consisting energy generation Units.
- Unit commiment
- Investment Optimization
- Economic dispatch
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Mixed-Integer Linear Programming,
Exact algorithm
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Try find and read recommendation about project portfolio planning from PMI Standard for Portfolio Management (overview is available at https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/pmi-standard-portfolio-management-8216).
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The project is to maximize the Net Present Value of Heat generating power plants in a District heating system.
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Here are some arguments for/against some of the methods:
1) For the PV approach and perpetuity, you would need a discounting rate. The assumption of a constant discounting rate is often not true. In the case of power plants, you would probably discount some benefit amount in dollars (which is a random variable) with some interest rate (a random variable as well).
2) The PV and perpetuity assume that the power plant will not burnt down (during n periods or in perpetuity), which is surely impossible. Any potential risk and uncertainty are usually assumed to be zero in both of the methods.
3) Often these projects are decided by politicians, who cannot think over their legislation periods. So perpetuity method is surely not ideal for these particular cases.
4) Annuity only shows information from one single period and hinders differentiation between high-risk and low-risk investments.
5) Assuming risk and interest rate volatility are not issues, perpetuity shows the net asset value the best. Ownership can be transfered at any time with the same price. PV would assume that the power plant will be priced with 0$ after n periods.
In short: Each approach has assumptions. You may prefer one to the other, if you are sceptical about the assumptions in your case. On the other hand, if you do not take any assumption, your calculation may only contain minimal information.
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- Using Mixed integer liner programming.
- I need to determine the optimal timing to invest(maximizing Net Present Value) in district heating power plants and at the same time minimizaing Carbon emissions.
- Main constraint: coverage of a given heat demand.
- Investment decision through mixed integer linear programming.
- Investment optimization as extension of unit commitment. (schedule optimization)
- Deterministic approach.
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Thanks a lot Mr. Temitayo Bankole !
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Is it possible to heal the banking banking supervision of corporate investment banking to significantly reduce the dramatic effects of the next global financial crisis for the national economy and society? Is it too late for that?
Of course, this question should be answered in the negative, that it is never too late to repair the operation of any system that is supposed to serve people. But whether the scale of mistakes made in the past has not generated the unavoidable pursuit of a global financial crisis that is even more dramatic in the negative consequences for entire economies and societies. A crisis that will start with the spectacular collapse of one of the largest financial institutions, a bank or an investment fund. A globally operating financial institution that will lose playing "poker" on international capital markets with other investment banks. Some of these others earn from this crisis by winning this "global poker" and real economies will again plunge into a multifaceted economic crisis, debt crisis, a period of deep recession, rising unemployment and falling income of citizens. Is the capital flow in this way through these games, games in "global poker" on the capital markets played between the largest investment banks is economically effective? Well, it is not an economically effective process, it is a process harmful to economic development. So why are these games in "global poker" conducted? Is it only because in the process of excessive, secondarily realized liberalization of supervisory standards over financial systems implemented in the 90's, allowed to create too large, increasingly globally and monopolistic investment banks? In my opinion, not only because. Not only the scale of operations, not only the large share of capital compared to the financial system and the entire economy is a serious threat and a crisis-generating factor. Also important are the elementary rules of risk management, which are forgotten, ignored at certain organizational levels of the financial institution or financial system management.
Analysis of the origin of the next global economic crisis
Currently, forecasting systems are being developed regarding forecasting future trends of economic processes based on various analytical, not only economic, determinants. Personally, I also support the thesis about the impact of various cosmic and atmospheric phenomena on various events that take place on Earth in the field of economy, economics, politics, etc. On the other hand, because sources of the global financial crisis I mainly researched in terms of progress (or rather lack of it) ) in the field of improving the credit risk management process, implementation of modern IT solutions streamlining these processes, filling gaps in legal regulations developed in financial supervision institutions in relation to technological development of transactional, corporate and investment banking, creation of new derivatives etc., so I add to this type of analysis the issue of the analysis of the process of improvement of systemic management, banking credit risk. Unfortunately, the strong investment banking banking lobby influencing the politics of the world's largest economies is accepted by the government establishment, because monetary policy, periodically regulated lending policy, increasingly liberalized, transactional modernization, electronically and disseminated investment banking are areas treated as "universal magical tools" that can be used as a determinant for economic growth as part of state intervention. In this respect, there is a lack of full information flow in the area of ​​growing credit risk and the fast approaching new global financial crisis between the transactional level of sales of banking products and the level of monetary, credit and financial system security at national and supranational level. According to the demands of the classical economy, liberalism at the transactional level of the sale of banking products should not be limited by state intervention at the level of the entire financial system. But the exception in this regard is the issue of the security of the financial system. If, secondarily, the extremely liberalized principles of systemic security periodically lead to an increasing financial crisis in investment and credit banking, why should the costs of these errors be spread across entire economies? Why is it that investment banks in economic crises, which often cause them to earn money from them, and the costs are repaid by entire societies, people lose their jobs and many years of experience of their lives? Therefore, because these investment banks have genuinely monopolized the systemic credit risk management system. They no longer serve the economy, but try to shape economies according to their investment strategies. The question that now arises is whether this harmful and crisis-provoking process can be reversed, corrected before the emergence of the next global financial crisis? Is it already too late and only one of the next financial crises, which will lead to the collapse of not one but a few major banks and investment funds will make it possible to repair damages resulting from errors that politicians began to make in the 1990s liberalizing then secondary issues of banking supervision systems? If it is only in the situation of the next global economic crisis, then how dramatic are the consequences for entire national economies, for societies, for people? It is not easy to predict this issue, but it is almost certain that it will be very dramatic, above all economically and socially, but perhaps also politically, strategically and militarily for many countries.
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Analysis of the origin of the next global economic crisis
Currently, forecasting systems are being developed regarding forecasting future trends of economic processes based on various analytical, not only economic, determinants.
So, how do you or anyone for that matter even have a hang of what is NEXT Global Financial crisis going to be about?
Any Forecasting model is close to being useless and analyst have over confidence/bias in their findings because they are either not aware of do not appreciate the fact that we are living in a highly complex Systems which is getting even more complex non-linearly.
Any forecasting model that try to drive order of chaos in complex systems in a fallacy. It's very disappointing that academicians and economists disregard this very fundamental understanding and try to fit their observations in a way that their pre-conceived conclusions remain intact.
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1) Main constraint: coverage of a given heat demand.
2) Investment decision through mixed integer linear programming.
3) Investment optimization as extension of unit commitment (schedule optimization)
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IRR and NPV are best suitable methods
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i have a data of stock prices in daily frequency. i want to study the relationship of stock price(or returns) with select macro-economic variables. the macroeconomics variables are in monthly series.
so, i have to make the daily frequency of stock prices as monthly frequency.
if i calculate average, i doubt whether it will be representative or not, becuase of the longer time period(ie., one month) and during the month, there may be some extreme values in the distribution
what the the appropriate method in this regard?
thanks in advance
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Take the volumes traded & arrive at the weighted averages.
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How to compute annualized return
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Md Zakir Hussain ' s answer is right.
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if a company declares buy back of shares, what type of signals it provides to the stock market.
if promoters also participate in the buy back, does it indicate negative future prospects of the company?
thanks in advance.
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A buyback of shares indicates that the company has excess funds for which they do not have any immediate profitable investment opportunity available. At times, there is nothing more to be read into a buyback other than the company's intention to use such funds for repurchase rather than payment of dividends. Since buyback reduces the capital base, it will increase the EPS & DPS even with same amount of profits. Also, since buyback is often done at a premium to prevailing market price, a high premium sends signal to the market that the company perceives that its shares are undervalued.
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can anybody suggest a best seminal works on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock price?
thanks in advance
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Hi Jasman,
It may be worth checking also country-specific research (in addition to the APT suggested in the first response). This is due to the fact that influence will differ across the world. You can have a look at the following for example:
Best regards,
Veneta
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how to understand intuitively the Inter-temporal CAPM model? what is the appropriate econometric model to empirical test the inter-temporal CAPM model?
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hi,
I thinks the following links and articles can be useful
Merton, R. C. (1973). An intertemporal capital asset pricing model. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 867-887.‏
Stehle, R. (1977). An empirical test of the alternative hypotheses of national and international pricing of risky assets. The Journal of Finance, 32(2), 493-502.‏
Jagannathan, R., & Wang, Z. (1996). The conditional CAPM and the cross‐section of expected returns. The Journal of finance, 51(1), 3-53.‏
CHEN, N. F. (1983). Some empirical tests of the theory of arbitrage pricing. The Journal of Finance, 38(5), 1393-1414.‏
Dempsey, M. (2013). The capital asset pricing model (CAPM): the history of a failed revolutionary idea in finance?. Abacus, 49(S1), 7-23.‏
Machado, O. P., Bortoluzzo, A. B., Martins, S. R., & Sanvicente, A. Z. (2013). Inter-temporal CAPM: An Empirical Test with Brazilian Market Data (CAPM Intertemporal: Um Teste Empírico Utilizando Dados Brasileiros). Revista Brasileira de Finanças, 11(2), 149.‏
Good Luck
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what are the real life applications of Arbitrage Pricing theory?
In other words, How an investor can make use of the theory to get arbitrage profits.?
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Yes my understanding is that there are two things. one is the arbitrage opportunity in the spot market where the parity conditions are not satisfied and the same thing is traded at different markets and investors those who are alert can capitalize. The other is the arbitrage opportunity in the investment market where the expected return is not equal to the factor values and factor sensitivities.In other words when the asset is over/under priced which is arrived at on your analysis and can be used to make investment portfolios.
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I would like to undertake a research on empirical testing of international CAPM. how to develop the methodology for testing international CAPM.
can you please suggest best guiding articles on international CAPM?
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Dear Srikanth:
Abbreviated CAPM methodology
After the review of the suggested literature above.
Please choose the appropriate risk free (Rf) instrument, i.e. Government Bond and whether this variable (the constant or intercept in the CAPM model) will affect the return of a given financial asset (Ri - Rf) or be part of the estimation per se (Rf +(ErMkt-Rf)*β).
Make sure you use the same frequency on data: daily (suggested) or monthly. If you employ daily frequency for company and market returns you may use LN returns, bond yields are usually expressed as EAR, therefore don’t forget to transform them into daily returns.
All the best,
Oscar.
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I am writing my masters thesis on Behavioural Finance, more specifically on how Twitter can be used to predict the return of stocks. Firstly, I am aware that this has already been proven in other literature, therefore I trying to decide how to do this in more detail so that my thesis provides added value. Secondly, I have recently discovered the sentiment analysis that Bloomberg provides, however I would like further guidance as to how I can use this information for my thesis.
I would like to understand the exact uses of the Bloomberg sentiment analysis, as then I would find it easier to decide upon a specific thesis question.
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Hi, I think that this working paper could be of interest for you.
Best wishes
Anna
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Research and studies about Investment Law in Afghanistan after 2004.
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I am need of investor perception related literature for my research project which will help me to refine the research constructs.
Please let me know 
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Thank Mo Sherif
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please suggest some construct to the the relationship between human rationality in investment decision and  EMH 
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Dear Dr. Dhani,
First off I would start with the fundamental assumptions of the EMH. Please note that there are many different versions of this. The most extreme is the so-called perfect competition. Another interesting theory is called complete markets. All of those have different assumptions.
Second, when we talk about rational investors, we must clearly define their utility function. During my research on capital structure transactions I constructed a microeconomical model which assumes a simple utility function calculated as the IRR of the expected cash flows resulting from the transaction.
However, one can go any number of levels deep in order to calibrate the utility function. E.g., in my model it would be trivially easy to construct a preference within the utility function which would additionally account for a gross cash-on-cash multiple from the investment, as well as the time required to exit the investment and the risk profile of the corporation's economical and financial performance.
I know this may all sound very abstract, but in order to construct a good theory one first needs to start with the assumptions and then validate them against microeconomical historical facts, as well as the legal and fInancial frameworks of the modern economy.
In case you wanted to discuss this on a more detailed level, I am always open for discussion.
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Am trying to use Sharpe and Treynor's ratio but will welcome any suggestion and if possible sources and or market data not older than 2013.
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Dichotomy in Value Chain Upgrading Approaches: A Comparative Study in Processed Millet and Banana Wine Sub-Sectors
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what theories can define the relationship between financial literacy (measured by its three components: knowledge; behavior and attitudes) and investment decision?
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Dear Hajaj,
I am doing research on the related topic, that is financial literacy and its impact on retirement planning. Can you guide me for the questionnaire
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Yes, The insurance company may pay a premium for buying policy in their bad days and supporting them morally, socially, and economically. It has happened in Japan, A little research on Japanese Insurance Industry would help.
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The Enron case. How could such a prestigious investment  bank advise investing when the quotations of the shares were falling?
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hi - watch the great movie on youtube i've shown students - search "enron smartest guy in the room full movie" - it was that the investment banks and their analysts did not want to damage their relationship with enron, so were a bit loose with the truth. re the movie, grab some popcorn and enjoy!!
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media coverage and analyzing news affect people reaction to and new news.
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Dear all,
Yes,   type of media (financial news or political news)  affect stock market movements.
Best regards
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What is the behavior of a "high-hedging needs" firm at refinancing points? What about its profitability impact on the financial package it will choose/ accept from the bank or the market? Do you know papers on that subject?  
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Financially constrained firms are expected to exhibit higher investment  or growth sensitivity to cash-flow than non-constrained firms.  This is the standard approach at least, and there is a lively debate still ongoing to a large extent.  You can find an overview with some important references here  in one of my papers... but there are of course many others you can look at. 
Cheers
Massimo
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Looking at SAS code examples, including one from WRDS, suggests that it’s simple returns. The reason I ask is because I plan to regress the monthly returns of gross profitability/book-to-market portfolios, using CRSP returns data, against the factors and I would like to make sure my returns are in the correct form.
Thanks
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Two issues arise that you might wish to further consider.  First, the distribution of the returns.  If the simple returns are skewed then a ln form might be more normal.  Second, the longer the time interval over which the returns are calculated the greater the difference between simple and log returns due to the continuous compounding effect.
While the original studies were based on simple returns there does not seem to be anything in the modelling or maths that preclude the use of ln returns. 
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The CDS markets portfolios (sensitive to credit events) construction is important especially for banks and investment management. Can we use VAR measure to assess the risk of such portfolio? if yes, what could be the possible practical implications of VAR for CDS portfolio? 
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VaR are inherently for products with risk of credit or price loss, but as Sergei mentions we are intuitively pricing the insurance premium on the improbability of default and adding back costs to get premium.
Premium = EL + Costs of contracting + costs of funding loss capital provisions (if any)  
This 99% improbability of loss would indeed have been VAR but we are already using it to price the insurance, thence you would not be able to provide  VaR based capital for it but provide the entire pool premium to the loss event per se and realise profits when the event does not happen.  You could indeed use a quasi VaR EL methodology to price the insurance.
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I have tried searching for semi structured and closed questionnaires in the following websites; ERIC, NEBRASKA RESEARCH INSTITUTE - US, TIP, EBSCO and DISCOVER but I could not find an instrument with credibility and reliability for purpose of Generalization with a high CRONBACH ALPHA.
I will appreciate any assistance. Thanks
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I am strongly agree with the answers of Prof.Julia B. Smith.
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Measuring environmental, social, ethical and governance aspects.
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Maybe the Q Methodology (and Q-Sort Technique) could help you.
It "combines both qualitative and quantitative research and is used to examine complex subjective structures like opinions, attitudes and values." We have been using it to measure attitudes towards environmental and social issues in our Social Psychology Research Group at LAPSI-USP (Sao Paulo, Brazil).
You can also add to it a software analysis, like SPSS - Statistical Package for the Social Sciences, which needs the help of a good computer and statistic  expert.
Here goes a few classic references, just in case:
STEPHENSON, W. (1935). Technique of factor analysis. Nature 136:297.
Norman H. Nie, Dale H. Bent, C. Hadlai Hull. SPSS: statistical package for the social sciences. McGraw-Hill, 1970.
MICKEOWN, B. & THOMAS, D. Q Methodology: Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences. Iowa (USA): Sage University. 1988.
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I'm in a stage of preparing my dissertation for an MBA. I'm a little confused about the topic and research question. I'm seeking a topic that combines both marketing and finance (CF) or investment management.
Can you please by referring any related literature topics, dilemma, problem?
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Dear Mr.Ahmad Tamimi,
You should select a research topic from your Research Gap only. Research Gap consist of your Broad area of topic like marketing &  finance or investment management, etc.,. 
Regards.
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Not true.
Naive diversification is combining assets into portfolios randomly and ignore correlation. In contrast, Markowitz diversification is combining assets with correlation coefficients.
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Naive diversification rest on the assumption that simply investing in enough unrelated assets will reduce risk sufficiently to make a profit. Alternatively, one may diversify naively by applying the capital asset pricing model incorrectly and finding the wrong efficient portfolio frontier. Such diversification does not necessary decrease risk at a given expected return and may in fact increase risk.
Markowitz diversification occurs when one uses mathematical models to find the stock to place in portfolio such that the portfolio has the highest possible return for its level of risk. One may engage in MArkowitz diversification when one wishes to increases or decreases one's portfolio's risk, or when the portfolio was previously not diversified.
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I am looking for qualified scientists to participate as a guest on my new, internet video series of interviews with researchers working in areas related to financial markets.
The interview will focus on your research. The length of the interview can be flexible, depending on your time availability and the subject matter covered. A short interview could run for ten minutes. A longer one might last for an hour or more. As we are separated geographically, the interviews will be conducted via Skype.
If it will be helpful, graphic images can be inserted into the interviews.
The video series is named after my Kindle book series, The Alpha Interface: Empirical Research on the Financial Markets, about which we have previously corresponded. In fact, the first four interviews – conducted with Peter Hafez, Director of Quantitative Research for the data provider RavenPack – are now online. You can view them at http://www.alphainterface.com/blog-and-video-interviews/.
While this is a new venture for me, I hope it will put you at ease to know that I do have an extensive background as a television interviewer. My television interview series, Thinking Allowed, was broadcast on public television, throughout North America, on a weekly basis for fifteen years. It focused on topics related to philosophy, psychology, health and science. Excerpts from those interviews are available at http://www.youtube.com/user/thinkingallowedtv These videos have been viewed on the internet more than two million times.
My goal in producing the video series and the Alpha Interface books is to help educate the many people with an interest in the financial markets as to the significance of empirical research.
If you are interested in participating as a guest, please email or point me to some of your research papers. I am located, incidentally, in the Pacific Time zone. I expect to be conducting these ongoing interviews throughout the coming year.
Sincerely,
Jeffrey Mishlove, PhD
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Hi Jeffrey
I trade on the Australian Stock Market and have pushed a few papers on trading stocks in the Australian Market.
Have a look at my publications, and let me know whether I qualify for your TV interview.
I look forward to hearing from you soon.
Kind Regards
Carol
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Contruction of mutual fund portfolio and validating its consistency in different market conditions.
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A good starting point is Fama-French 3-factor model. Time-series are available on their website.
BR
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Alpha is a risk-adjusted measure of active return on an investment.
The FF 3 factor model is emerging 2 classes of stock with CAPM to reflect a portfolio's theory.
r - Rf = beta3 x ( Km - Rf ) + bs x SMB + bv x HML + alpha
Alpha Coefficient can show that in an efficient market, the expected value of the alpha coefficient is zero. Therefore the alpha coefficient indicates how an investment has performed after accounting for the risk it involved:
Alpha_i < 0 : the investment has earned too little for its risk (or, was too risky for the return)
Alpha_i = 0 : the investment has earned a return adequate for the risk taken
Alpha_i > 0 : the investment has a return in excess of the reward for the assumed risk
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Absolutely. Take the case of a portfolio. The measurement of alpha with CAPM assumes that a portfolio is (1) passive and (2) similar in style and value as the "market." In this case, a significant negative or positive alpha can be a distortion. For example, if (1) your portfolio is more value-oriented than the "market" and (2) value stocks have overperformed growth stocks during the period of evaluation, your portfolio alpha is overestimated. Now, if you orthogonalize alpha for value and size biases, then your measurement of "excess return" is more refined. Momentum (Carhart) and market timing are also factors can be added. In fact, professional (commercial) factor models like MSCI BARRA use up to 8 or 10 risk factor groups comprised of 100s of risk macro components (liquidity, confidence, volatility, trading activity, etc.).
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Especially if this is a multi-factor model.
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Yes, I agree. Fama and MacBeth regression seems to tell us that we can get more accurate risk premium than original factor return. And thus we should use the cross section results as 'real' factor return instead of the original ones.
It is a pity that we cannot get the original factor returns from betas, which I have planned to do.
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I would like to apply the Sharp ratio to compare between a two portfolios. I don`t have the standard deviation but the default probabilities.
Can I apply the default probability instead of standard deviation or I need to apply some type of transformation function on the default risk, that would approximate it to a standard deviation.
Thanks!
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If you assume that the PD of the obligors follows a standard distribution, you may obtain estimates for the expected return and the risk of the portfolio.
Lets consider that one portfolio (one year loans) follows a binomial dist; all loans have the same PD; that the loans are iid; and the recovery rate is 0.
Expected return of the portfolio= (1-PD)*(Principal+Coupon)/Principal-1
You also know that if the loans PDs' follow a binomial its standard error is N*PD*(1-PD)...
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What are the pros and cons of it?
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Its traditional knowledge that equity financing is better for volatile business. The reason behind it that equity is permanent in comparison to debt which needs to be return after a fixed period. Thus even if situations are bad u dont have to return money in case of equity but have to so in case of debt. But the Debt financing is cheaper and thus help in reducing some extent of volatility and reduce risk
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I have a model on the determinants of the private investment.
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There is slight difference between the fixed capital formation and private investment. The private investment can only produce extra profit for the private investors such as fixed capital land, raw material in fixed quantity and fixed machinery and other inputs but public investment extra add to national production.
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Generally, how do you predict or measure investor behavior / reaction to some new financial information in the behavioral finance framework?
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The AARI collects and publishes [free] this weekly sentiment indicator..many academic studies have utilized the index and its volatility to build lead-lag models... you can even download past data in .xls format. Hope this helps in your model building
Cheers!
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Although CAPM is the most popular method, determining beta values is a problem. There are stocks which are thinly traded or are not listed. Although applying a levered/ unlevered beta is an option, one also has to find a control group of stocks, which can vary from one stock to another because of industry, size etc. So, is there a more effective method to determine the cost of equity for firms instead of CAPM?
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While the CAPM pretty much necessitates a return history [to estimate betas] it offers a quite robust estimate of the cost of equity, assuming the equity market risk premium is also known (Rm-Rf). Since the author of this question [Chandra] wants to explore non-beta alternatives, one can look at the Gordon DDM [dividend discount model]...where Ke= (D1/Po )+ g ... thus all you need is information wrt next period dividend, current price and the growth rate of dividends. Note that D1=D0(1+g). This is the beta-free way to estimate Ke. Hope this helps, cheers!
PS: for estimating issues related to Beta you can see the abstracts of my PRJ papers on ETF betas. Research on EFs is my special interest.
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The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that is a surprise (to the observer), has a major effect, and after the fact is often inappropriately rationalized with the benefit of hindsight.
Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable- Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Olaf,
I agree energy or access to reliable energy is sometimes under appreciated (why the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor - because the US Pacific fleet was the only real threat to the oil out of south asia) but not unexpected . . . so is not quite a black swan.
One interesting 'cost' of modern globalization - due to population migration and travel - that I think might be classified as 'unexpected consequenses' is the reintroduction of diseases which had previously been eradicated from numerous states. This coupled with the relatively recent findings that immunizations don't last indefinitely has many in the health community very nervous. This observation will be ignored (or fought - remember aids in Africa a decade ago) by many governments until it starts infecting their individual family members and friends. Then they'll try to hold the wrong people responsible; my favorite recent example there is the 7 Italian geologiest that are now serving 6 year prison sentences for not predicting a big quack that killed 300 people in L'Auila, Italy. I'm sure all this is related to oil somewhere.
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Can experiments be used to study long term group decisions of organizations?
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It would be great if Paul Ojeaga could actually give some examples of the many studies in this area that he is aware of.