Science topic

Geopolitics - Science topic

The purpose of this discussion group is to share ideas about the field of geopolitics and related disciplines such as intelligence analysis and strategy.
Questions related to Geopolitics
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Given the ongoing geopolitical and economic developments, especially over the past decade, the term "Rise of China" has frequently been used to describe China's growing influence. However, with China's established role as a global power across various sectors, does the term "rise" still accurately reflect China's current position in the international system? Or is it time to adopt new terminology or perspectives to describe this increasing influence?
Thank you for your insights
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China doubles US chip-research output
"There are signs that China is now producing most of the basic research that could underpin future computing hardware. An analysis found that, between 2018 and 2023, research papers on chip design and fabrication included authors affiliated with Chinese institutions more than twice as often as they did US ones. Researchers in China also excelled when it came to highly cited papers. If this work develops into commercial applications, the United States might soon find it impossible to use export controls to retain its competitive advantage in the field, the study’s authors say."
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Dear Researchers, Scientists, Friends,
Do trade wars that restrict international trade based on high tariffs help or rather harm the domestic economy and how does it affect economic globalisation?
In my opinion, trade wars, which involve the imposition of tariffs and other restrictions, have a complex impact on the economy. On the one hand, they can have short-term benefits, such as protecting domestic production and creating jobs. The increased competitiveness of domestic products and the relocation of production back to the country generate new jobs and increase employment. On the other hand, in the long term, they lead to price increases, a weakening of the purchasing power of money and an economic slowdown. Prohibitive tariffs increase the prices of imported goods, which translates into higher costs for consumers and companies. The increase in the prices of goods and services reduces the purchasing power of money, lowering the standard of living of citizens. Retaliatory measures by other countries lead to a reduction in exports and have a negative impact on the economy. Rising prices, reduced trade and the uncertainty associated with trade wars have a negative impact on investment and economic growth. In conclusion, trade wars are a double-edged sword, bringing short-term benefits but leading to negative consequences in the long term. The final outcome depends on many factors, such as the size of the economy, its integration into the global economy and the reaction of other countries. The decision to implement a policy of trade wars should be carefully considered, and it is more beneficial in the long term to strive for open international trade.
In the context of globalisation, prohibitive tariffs can weaken global supply chains, leading to increased production costs and reduced efficiency. Trade wars can also lead to the fragmentation of the global market and its division into smaller, isolated trading blocs, which limits the possibilities for the development of international trade. The uncertainty associated with trade wars has a negative impact on the flow of foreign investment, hindering economic development. In addition, trade wars can exacerbate geopolitical tensions between countries and lead to conflict. In conclusion, protectionism based on high tariffs has a negative impact on economic globalisation. In the short term, it may bring some benefits, but in the long term it leads to negative consequences such as rising prices, reduced purchasing power, slower economic growth and a weakening of global supply chains. The pursuit of free and rules-based international trade is key to ensuring stable and sustainable economic development in the era of globalisation. International cooperation, dialogue and negotiations are essential to resolve trade issues and avoid the negative consequences of trade wars.
My articles below are related to the above issues in some aspects:
I have described the main issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets in my article below:
IMPACT OF THE SARS-COV-2 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON GLOBALISATION PROCESSES
I have described the key issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets in my article below:
IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY
I have described the issue of economic globalisation as an important factor in the systemic transformation of banking in Poland in the following article:
GLOBALISATIONAL AND NORMATIVE DETERMINANTS OF THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE BANKING CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN POLAND
Globalisation and the process of the systemic and normative adaptation of the financial system in Poland to the European Union standards
And what is your opinion on this topic?
What is your opinion on this issue?
Please reply,
I invite everyone to the discussion,
Thank you very much,
Best regards,
I invite you to scientific cooperation,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Trade wars, characterized by the imposition of tariffs and other trade barriers between countries, have complex and often detrimental effects on the domestic economy and global economic integration.
Harm to the Domestic Economy:
  • Increased Costs for Consumers and Businesses: Tariffs raise the price of imported goods, making them more expensive for domestic consumers. Businesses that rely on imported inputs also face higher production costs, which can reduce their competitiveness.
  • Reduced Export Competitiveness: Retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries can harm domestic exporters by making their products more expensive in foreign markets, leading to decreased sales and potential job losses.
  • Supply Chain Disruptions: Trade wars can disrupt established supply chains, forcing businesses to find alternative sources for inputs, which can be costly and time-consuming.
  • Economic Uncertainty: The unpredictability of trade policies during a trade war can create uncertainty for businesses, discouraging investment and hiring.
  • Inflation: Higher import prices due to tariffs can contribute to inflation, reducing consumers' purchasing power.
Impact on Economic Globalization:
  • Deglobalization Trends: Trade wars undermine the principles of free trade and economic integration that underpin globalization. They can lead to a fragmentation of the global economy into competing blocs.
  • Reduced Foreign Investment: The uncertainty created by trade wars can deter foreign investment, as companies become hesitant to invest in countries involved in trade disputes.
  • Weakened International Institutions: Trade wars can strain relationships between countries and weaken international institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO), which are designed to promote and regulate global trade.
  • Shift in Trade Patterns: Trade wars can lead to a shift in trade patterns as countries seek alternative trading partners to avoid tariffs. This can lead to inefficiencies and disruptions in the global trading system.
While some argue that trade wars can protect domestic industries and create jobs, the consensus among economists, dear Dariusz Prokopowicz , is that the negative effects generally outweigh the benefits. Trade wars can lead to higher prices, reduced economic growth, and increased uncertainty, ultimately harming both the domestic economy and the process of globalization.
Best: stephen
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There're two outstanding facts in the history of the Russian higher education in the 21st Century: joining the Bologna process in 2003 and an expulsion in 2022. But inspite of geopolitical reasons of both events, no doubt we may observe now a somewhat exhausting the ideological backgrounds for such globalization processes and "democratic prospects" for today's world. Surely, we may attribute this new political agenda to occasionalities, but in fact, one it's necessary to recognize, that the war conflicts in the Post-Soviet space, "US conservative revolution" etc. are parts of a general trend, which is definitely influence higher education at a global scale. Some problems of this transformation have been treated here but it remains more general questions, what values, concepts, strategies and resources will determine the new era in the world-wide higher education in the near 10 - 15 years?
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Hello, as a head of the Methodical brahch of the St.Peterdburg Mining Univ. in 1993 (was named as Mining institute in the time mentioned), Russian High Education 've been joined in reality with Bologna process in 1993, when the first stage of so-called standards (with order of minister Schadrikov) for education was issued , as you can see at https://fgosvo.ru/archivegosvpo/index/2?parent=16&edutype=2 / As the result, fist bachelors in technology released in 1997/98, when we at first accepted a magister courses.
More information about to-day released so called 'a pilot poject' of the transformation whole system of hi-education in Russia may be viewed at https://pilot.spmi.ru/ (in Russ.)
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Central Asia - a region rich in natural resources, stands at a pivotal moment in its development. With vast reserves of critical minerals and energy resources, these countries have the potential to harness their natural wealth through strategic partnerships on the global stage. This approach can catalyse economic growth and strengthen their geopolitical leverage, offering a pathway to enhanced regional influence and prosperity.
However, the critical question remains: Can Central Asia truly set its own rules in the international arena, or are its resources a double-edged sword that entrenches deeper geopolitical dependencies?
Despite the abundance of natural assets, the region of the finds itself at the nexus of larger powers' strategic interests, which can limit its autonomy in utilising these resources for self-determined development.
A poignant example of this dynamic is the recent sale of Russian stakes in Kazakhstan's Kazatom uranium deposits to Chinese companies. This transaction underscores the complex interplay of regional power shifts and resource control. It highlights how Central Asian countries, while rich in resources like uranium, must navigate the intricate and sometimes perilous waters of global power politics, where their sovereign decisions can be heavily influenced by larger state actors like Russia and China.
This situation poses a vital discussion point: Is Central Asia moving toward greater autonomy, or is it increasingly becoming a pawn in the strategic games of global dominance?
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Well written.
The potential of these countries is enormous. They can take their cue from nearby Azerbaijan, which has gained self-confidence after winning wars over Armenia and weakening Moscow's power due to the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, Turkey is involved in the extraction of Azerbaijan's mineral wealth. The countries of Central Asia will always incline toward the great powers.
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1. World Order has shown changes, especially after 2020 in almost all major fields of Politics, Economics, Social, Geopolitical etc.
2. Where the world order in real is diverting?
3. What will be the ultimate outcomes?
4. The alteration & changes of systems on Earth will change anything in Space?
5. Which systems will lose centuries-long grounds and what new will rise?
6. Is the current scenario being same as the Rise/Fall of Nations, Games of Thrones etc. or there is something significantly different this time?
7. Ultimately what impact will the Next World Order make on the entire human race and especially on the Bio-sphere?
8. How much was any World Order got impacted/formed/shaped through/by religious education directly/indirectly and why did such neuroplasticity/mind exercises base practices remain an integral part of World Orders in past? Can humans afford to continue past practices to build any new future?
9. What changes do you suggest in Next World Order, and Why?
10. Are Human going to accept defeat & surrender in front of Alien powers like gods, AIs, energy, any other life forms etc.?
11. How long more humans have the current status of rapidly shrinking freedom?
12. Will the current form of human life exist after such surrenders and what will be the expected shape of any of such life?
13. Its understood that human have to sacrifice current systems and life forms for existence, but, Is it necessary? Any workable solutions ?
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The notion of a unified world underpinned by industrial primacy while sidelining commercial interests poses profound questions about the future of global cooperation, the balance of power, and the potential for conflict in an increasingly multipolar world. The outcomes of these dynamics could reshape international relations and influence economic models for decades to come.
The transition from the U.S.-Soviet rivalry to what you're describing as the "era of the Warring States" reflects a complex geopolitical landscape characterized by fragmented power dynamics and the rise of emerging economies. In this new world order, traditional superpower rivalries have given way to a multipolar framework where various nations pursue their own interests, often leading to competition and conflict.
In this context, the concept of a country prioritizing industrial development while suppressing commercial interests can be interpreted through the lens of nationalism and state-driven economic models.
Nations that prioritize heavy industrialization and seek to centralize control over their economies may aim for self-sufficiency and greater global influence. These countries might invest heavily in technology, infrastructure, and human capital, viewing industrial prowess as a means to enhance their international standing and attract global partnerships.
This approach might involve limiting foreign competition, protecting domestic industries, and implementing policies that favor state-owned enterprises or public-private partnerships. By doing so, these nations could aim to create a strong internal market that fosters economic growth and innovation.
As countries pursue industrialization aggressively, the potential for conflict increases. Nations might compete for resources, markets, and influence, leading to tension and rivalry. This competition can manifest in trade wars, military conflicts, or ideological clashes.
In this scenario, countries like China or India could be viewed as potential unifiers in a fragmented global landscape. Their large populations, growing economic clout, and strategic initiatives (like China's Belt and Road Initiative) reflect attempts to assert influence over global trade routes and bolster their geopolitical interests.
The rapid advancement of technology can serve as both a catalyst for industrialization and a factor that disrupts traditional commerce. Innovations in automation, artificial intelligence, and manufacturing processes may allow nations to achieve unprecedented levels of productivity, potentially reshaping global supply chains and economic relationships.
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Dear colleagues! Could you recommend English-language university textbooks (manuals) on geopolitics which are the best in your opinion? Such textbooks must include historiography - the presentation of the main ideas of major thinkers beginning with Ratzel and Mahan.
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Thank you indeed, Professor Flores Rojas! A comprehensive list, I would say. :)
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It has been a quite long time since the Russia and Ukraine war has been going on and if we see the context of Geopolitics and International Relations we don't see a mediation between the two parties and ultimately the people of the two countries are facing the circumstances that arise by the governments.
Thanks.
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By invading Ukraine on February 24, 2022 Russia violated Ukraine's territorial integrity. In order for a ceasefire or peace agreement to be achieved, the main obstacle is that Russia must remove its troops from Ukraine, an action that Russia in not willing to make.
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I am conducting a thesis on the impact of the 7th October attack and the BDS (Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions) Movement on consumer preferences, specifically examining the boycott of brands affiliated with Israel, such as Domino's, Pizza Hut, and McDonald's. My research aims to understand how these geopolitical events influence consumer behavior towards these brands. The variables I am considering include brand loyalty, to measure consumer allegiance before and after the events; purchase frequency, to track changes in buying habits; consumer awareness, to assess knowledge of the brands' affiliations; political affiliation, to understand the influence of political views on purchasing decisions; and media influence, to evaluate how media coverage affects consumer perceptions and behaviors. I would appreciate insights on any additional variables that could be relevant or suggestions to refine the variables mentioned to better capture changes in consumer behavior. Thank you for your assistance.
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The key variables that would be suitable for researching changes in consumer preferences post-7th October attack and the BDS movement's impact on brands like McDonald's (MCD) include:
1. Consumer spending patterns: Look at changes in overall consumer spending, as well as spending on specific product categories and brands like McDonald's before and after the 7th October attack. This could include metrics like sales volumes, revenue, and market share.
2. Brand perception and loyalty: Examine how the 7th October attack and BDS movement have affected consumer perceptions, attitudes, and loyalty towards brands like McDonald's. This could involve surveys, social media analysis, and tracking brand sentiment.
3. Demographic shifts: Analyze if certain consumer segments (e.g. age, income, location) have changed their preferences and purchasing behavior for brands like McDonald's in the aftermath of the 7th October attack and BDS movement.
4. Competitive landscape: Assess how the competitive dynamics have shifted, with consumers potentially favoring local or regional brands over multinational corporations like McDonald's in response to the 7th October attack and BDS movement.
5. Regulatory and policy changes: Identify any new laws, regulations, or government policies that may have impacted consumer preferences and the operating environment for brands like McDonald's following the 7th October attack and BDS movement.
6. Media and social influence: Examine how the media coverage and social media discourse around the 7th October attack and BDS movement have influenced consumer perceptions and behaviors towards brands like McDonald's.
By analyzing these key variables, researchers can gain a comprehensive understanding of the changes in consumer preferences and the BDS movement's impact on brands like McDonald's in the post-7th October attack environment.
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Maritime economics focuses on the economic principles and dynamics governing the maritime industry. This field encompasses various aspects, such as the functioning of shipping markets, port operations, and the global supply chain. Here are some key areas within maritime economics:
1. Shipping Markets: Maritime economics examines different shipping markets, including dry bulk, tanker, and container markets. It analyzes supply and demand dynamics, freight rates, and the impact of global economic trends on shipping activities.
2. Port Economics: This area studies the economic aspects of port operations, including port efficiency, infrastructure investments, and competition between ports. It also explores the role of ports in regional and global trade.
3. Maritime Trade Patterns: Maritime economists analyze trade routes, the flow of goods, and the economic factors influencing global maritime trade. This includes the study of trade imbalances, the impact of tariffs, and the effects of geopolitical events on shipping.
4. Fleet Management and Shipbuilding: This involves the economic decision-making processes related to fleet expansion, maintenance, and shipbuilding. It considers factors such as ship financing, depreciation, and technological advancements.
5. Freight Rate Determination: Maritime economics explores how freight rates are determined by market forces, including supply and demand, competition, and operational costs. It also examines the impact of external factors such as fuel prices and regulatory changes.
6. Risk Management: The maritime industry faces various risks, including market volatility, environmental regulations, and geopolitical tensions. Maritime economics addresses strategies for managing these risks, such as hedging and insurance.
7. Environmental Economics: This area focuses on the economic implications of environmental regulations and sustainability practices in the maritime industry. It includes the study of emissions reduction, ballast water management, and the adoption of green technologies.
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Indeed, Maritime Economics focuses on the economic principles of maritime industry such as the shipping and maritime trade and examines major aspects if the shoreside operations of ships and harbours, amongst others. it also provides insights to current trends in the global shipping industry, to issues of the environmental impact of shipping and to issues of fair trade.
That is, maritime economics explains how the shipping market is organised and works, including reasons for sea transport, organisation of sea transport, prices and freight rates determinations, ship finances, market cycles, shipping companies, return on investment, how shipping companies survives depressions, drivers in ship design, and market forecasts
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I'm looking for studies on geopolitics/territories of tech standards, any suggestions? not just on the institutional approach, how about situated agency of firms when they encounter geopolitics of tech standards?
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It depends on the basis on which the standards are built. June Wang Rami Kamak Daba Debo Tamara Magash
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CALL FOR PAPERS | ESC Special issue Transatlantic Mobility in the New Geopolitics of Knowledge: (Inter)Dependencies in Higher Education Brazil/Portugal
2024-02-07
ESC – Educação, Sociedade & Culturas | Call for papers Transatlantic Mobility in the New Geopolitics of Knowledge: (Inter)Dependencies in Higher Education Brazil/Portugal Extended abstracts (of up to 700 words, excluding references) due on May 31, 2024
Guest Editors Professor Marcelo Parreira do Amaral, University of Münster, Germany Professor Wivian Weller, University of Brasília, Brazil Professor Tiago Neves, University of Porto, Portugal
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Yes, currently I'm writing about Indonesian's point of view towards the Netherland post-colonialization. I've so many interesting things. Hit me up for the cooperation
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Hello, tech community!
We're preparing an upcoming book that examines the strategies of leading tech companies. "Strategic Insights into Tech Giants" promises to be a must-read for anyone interested in understanding how these companies navigate innovation, geopolitical risks, and ethical standards on the global stage.
What can you expect from this book? A blend of case studies, insights, and expert analysis that will shed light on:
- The innovative strategies behind success.
- Competitive edge in e-commerce and cloud computing.
- The geopolitical challenges and supply chain resilience.
- The importance of ethical standards in forming global partnerships.
We'd love to hear your thoughts! What questions do you have about the global impact of tech companies? Share your insights and join the discussion.
Stay tuned for more updates on this compelling read!
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I would gladly read some stories about a darker side of Big Tech practices, including anticompetitive and blocking behaviours to ‘protect their innovation’ and especially market share granted by the network effects. There are just too many case studies about the apparent and alleged success of particular companies that make me thinking that we are living in the candylandia of unicorns. The content, of course, depends solely on your sponsors and editorial policies.
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Me encuentro realizando una investigación sobre La Historia del Comercio Internacional de Colombia, En el Primer capítulo me encuentro abordando los imperios Latinoamericanos precoloniales como el Azteca, Inca y Maya; busco información relacionada en temas Geopolíticos, Económicos y similares de Latinoamerica Precolonial.
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Hola Carlos R. Barrera-Chaupis, te agradezco mucho por la información suministrada e igualmente por el consejo sobre la delimitación, entorno a la Historia del Comercio Internacional Colombiano en este primer capítulo busco desarrollar la Economía y Geopolítica precolonial de América Latina con el fin de determinar las principales instituciones, datos de la actividad productiva de los diferentes territorios, ordenamiento territorial y/o politicas territoriales para posteriormente hacer un seguimiento de estas variables y evidenciar su evolución e influencia en la HCIC.
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Me encuentro realizando una investigación sobre La Historia del Comercio Internacional Colombiano, Estoy analizando las dinamicas precoloniales de los imperios latinoamericanos; Aztecas, Incas y Mayas, busco info sobre Geopolítica, Comercio, Economía y similares.
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Hola Sebastián. Hombre, me parece extremadamente interesante tu tema, pero igualmente amplio. Sugiero tratar de acotar un poco a solo dos de las culturas que mencionas, las más cercanas a Colombia. Para el caso de los la cultura inca, una historiadora sobresaliente, cuyos libros incluso están disponibles como PDF (si no me equivoco) es María Rostworowski. CREO que vas a tener que leer mucho en lo referido a estas dos culturas para poder cernir los temas específicos que buscas, así como para encontrar la literatura más cercana a dichos temas. Pero como soy economista y no historiador, es muy posible que me equivoque.
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Based on current global issues, the main threats at the international level can be summarized as follows:
1. Particularly, global pandemics can pose serious health threats on an international scale and impact the entire world.
2. Effects of climate change, such as rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and sea-level rise, may be significant threats affecting global security and the economy.
3. Cyber attacks can threaten the security of states, organizations, and individuals on an international scale. Cyber espionage and cybercrime are among significant risks.
4. International terrorist organizations can threaten global stability by organizing violent actions for ideological or political reasons.
5. The proliferation of nuclear weapons can significantly impact international security and lead to regional conflicts.
6. International economic instability can strain relationships between countries and affect the balance of global trade.
Geopolitical factors influence intelligence operations to address these threats. For instance, geographical locations, access to energy resources, geopolitical conflicts, and international relations can be effective in determining the priorities and strategies of intelligence agencies. Understanding the changing dynamics in international relations is crucial in shaping the processes of intelligence collection and analysis.
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Terima kasih Shafia Jamil
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To WW3 or Not To WW3, That is The Question!... to Ask Scholars, in light of the devastating Wars currently shaking the World and threatening its Security. What Work of Pedagogy, Explanation, Teaching, and Analysis the Scholars of the World must undertake, to generate Peaceful Narratives likely to promote the Defusing of Current or Potential Conflicts in all Areas under tension. Twelve Paramount Red Spots have been inventoried [1]: (i) Europe vs. Russia (C1); (ii ) China vs. Taiwan (C2); (iii) South Korea vs. North Korea (C3); (iv) Pakistan vs. India (C4); (v) Japan vs. China (C5); (vi) Japan vs. North Korea (C6); (vii) Greece vs. Turkey (C7); (viii) Israel vs. Middle East (C8); (ix) U.S. vs. China (C9); (x) U.S. vs. Russia (C10); (xi) U.S. vs. Russia Allies in Latin America (Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela) (C11); (xii) U.S. vs. Iran (C12). What are the Historical Facts that support these Conflicts? The Ins and Outs that drive them? the Global Security Issues they Involve? Possible and Impossible Solutions to Imagine? What Conciliation Steps should be put in place to Avoid Possible Escalations and Encourage Their Defusing? This Discussion, intended to be Academic, aims to Stimulate Reflections, Analyses, and Opinions, to constitute a Platform for Exchange between Scholars likely to bring about Prospects for Peace in the World.
[1] Ruiz Estrada & Mario Arturo, 2022 "Welcome to the World War 3 (WWIII), Available at SSRN
Illustration from: Explore Ww3. DeviantArt Galery on: https://www.deviantart.com/tag/ww3
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The decision to go to war involves complex geopolitical, economic, and diplomatic factors. It is important to engage in open dialogue, seek diplomatic solutions, and promote international cooperation to prevent conflicts from escalating into global wars.
If you are interested in understanding the perspectives of scholars, it's advisable to consult experts in international relations, political science, and history. Scholars often analyze geopolitical trends, historical precedents, and current events to provide insights into potential conflicts and avenues for resolution.
Remember that maintaining peace requires the collective efforts of nations, leaders, and citizens worldwide. Promoting understanding, tolerance, and cooperation on a global scale can contribute to a more stable and peaceful world.
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Geopolitical determinants are an important factor of escalation.
But wars also arise from a struggle of dominance of one's way of life i.e. social organization and norms.
Ukraine vs Russia war has an element of progressive/EU values vs conservative ones. Russia considers the rights of LGBt /gays a mental decease, while science accepts the right to associate with traits that society typically associates with one orr the other sex.
This I consider a main issue on the arena of norms which can be a catalyst for escalation although it might not be the main one but I eleborated for references.
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I am sure it would be more responsible. But I doubt whether a referendum would give rational or true results, given the current polarization and political manipulations of the public. I would advice teaching non-violent communication, conflict resolution and having heart to heart dialogues as more effective means to get to the true needs of all people, even when they may have conflicting interests.
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🌍🔍 Explore the Ripple Effect of Climate Change on World Affairs 🔍🌍
1. How will climate change impact global alliances?
2. Are resource wars on the horizon? Discuss the geopolitical tensions arising from the changing distribution of vital resources.
3. What's the link between climate-induced shifts and global migration patterns?
4. Can AI ease or heighten geopolitical tensions amidst climate challenges?
🌐 Calling All Minds!
Whether you're a climate scientist, geopolitics enthusiast, or AI expert, your voice matters! Let's unravel the complexities and brainstorm innovative solutions.
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While AI holds the potential to facilitate collaboration and enhance capabilities to address climate challenges, its impact on geopolitical tensions will depend on how nations choose to deploy, share, and govern these technologies. Hence, requires careful consideration of ethical, security, and collaborative frameworks to ensure positive outcomes.
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I am just GUESSING, NOT ADVOCATING
I have avoid addressing this topic for the obvious reasons that it´s highly sensitive and explosive. But having written about One Country, Two Systems 30 years ago...
what I would say should be treated as simply a time capsule for thinking about this mega-issue 30 years (i.e. 2053, when One Country, Two Systems have already expired in HK) from now...
Since there´s so much at stake for EVERY SIDES, my own perspectiveS are highly tinged by being IndoChinese (where Former South Vietnam does not exist within the Communists´conquest of US Imperialism), plus a decade in HK (1994 to 2003), and now having lived in Germany for many years (where Former Eastern Germany exists within the Triumph of the West).
I have tried to address an inter-related issue here obliquely in a way that confounds ResearchGate´s algorithms and other search engines. This entry is purely for HUMAN EYES:
My own SPECulation is buried here:
Mirror Mirror on the Wall, What Would It Take for China to Take Back Taiwan?
  • The PRC would need to go beyond it´s CCP versus KMT Origin Story based on THE LONG MARCH.
  • The TAIWAN QUESTION requires a Meta-Narrative that goes beyond the conquest of the PRC over the ROC.
  • The TAIWAN QUESTION is really a residue from the COLD WAR, much in the same way that Germany, Vietnam, and Korea were/ are broken into two systems.
  • Such a New Meta-Narrative would need to start with Zhou En Lai...
  • But better yet, is to overcome the REVULSION/ SELF-HATRED for anything imperial and revisit the narrative(s) of the Middle Kingdom...
What are the REPUBLIC NARRATIVES, be that THE PEOPLE´s REPUBLIC or REPUBLIC of CHINA?
The concept of a "republic" generally refers to a form of government in which the country is considered a "public matter," and political power is derived from the people or their elected representatives. In the context of ancient China, the term "republic" may not be the most accurate descriptor, as the political structures of ancient China were more diverse and often centered around monarchies, dynasties, and imperial rule.
However, if we broaden the scope to include later periods in Chinese history, particularly the 20th century, the idea of a republic becomes more relevant. The Republic of China (ROC) was established in 1912, following the overthrow of the Qing Dynasty and the end of imperial rule. The ROC marked a transition from dynastic monarchy to a more republican form of government. Sun Yat-sen, a key figure in the Xinhai Revolution, played a significant role in advocating for the establishment of a republic in China.
The meta-narrative of the Chinese Republic, particularly during its early years, could include:
  1. Nationalism: The overthrow of the Qing Dynasty and the establishment of the Republic of China were driven by a strong sense of nationalism. There was a desire to modernize and strengthen the country to counter external threats and regain its standing in the world.
  2. Modernization: The early leaders of the Republic of China, particularly Sun Yat-sen, sought to modernize the country. This included political, economic, and social reforms to bring China in line with Western powers and other modern nations.
  3. Struggles for Stability: The early decades of the 20th century in China were marked by internal strife, regional conflicts, and power struggles among different factions. The meta-narrative might involve the challenges of establishing a stable and unified government in the face of internal and external pressures.
  4. Ideological Shifts: The Republic of China witnessed ideological shifts, including the influence of different political ideologies such as nationalism, democracy, and socialism. These ideological dynamics contributed to the political landscape and struggles for governance.
It's important to note that the history of the Republic of China is complex and includes periods of war, foreign invasions, and internal conflicts, leading eventually to the establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949. The narrative of the Chinese Republic is multifaceted and reflects the challenges and aspirations of a nation in transition from traditional to modern forms of governance.
What are the IMPERIAL NARRATIVES of the MIDDLE KINGDOM?
The term "Middle Kingdom" is often used to refer to ancient China, specifically during the period of the Zhou Dynasty (1046–256 BCE). However, it's crucial to note that the concept of a "meta-narrative" is a modern analytical framework, and applying it to ancient cultures requires some abstraction.
In the context of ancient China, the idea of a meta-narrative could be approached through the lens of historical and philosophical texts, such as the "Mandate of Heaven." The Mandate of Heaven was a political and religious concept used to legitimize the rule of the kings or emperors in ancient China. According to this idea, a ruler was granted the right to rule by divine approval, but this mandate could be withdrawn if the ruler failed to govern justly and in the best interests of the people.
Confucianism, Daoism, and Legalism are three major philosophical traditions that shaped the meta-narrative of ancient China:
  1. Confucianism: Emphasizing social harmony, ethical conduct, and filial piety, Confucianism had a profound impact on the political and social structure of ancient China. The meta-narrative here would involve the pursuit of a just and harmonious society through proper governance and moral behavior.
  2. Daoism (Taoism): Daoism, with its emphasis on the natural order (Dao) and the concept of Wu Wei (non-action), offered an alternative perspective. The meta-narrative could involve living in harmony with the Dao, advocating a more laissez-faire approach to governance and life.
  3. Legalism: Legalism, on the other hand, focused on strict laws and centralized control to maintain social order. The meta-narrative might revolve around the need for a strong, authoritarian government to prevent chaos and ensure stability.
The meta-narrative of the Middle Kingdom, therefore, could be seen as a complex interplay between these philosophical traditions, the dynamic relationship between rulers and the divine, and the ongoing quest for a balanced and just society.
It's important to approach these concepts with an understanding of the nuances and diversity of thought within ancient Chinese philosophy and not oversimplify the rich tapestry of ideas present in the historical and philosophical texts of the time.
What are MY LINEAGES/ ALLIGANCES?
I AM BOTH MICHAEL HALLIDAY & PIERRE RYCKMANS
Sydney University was their battle ground in terms of how Chinese should be taught. Halliday decamped to Macquarie University but his disciplines REMAINED in Sydney University.
What did Pierre Ryckmans think of June Fourth? Banal. I thought he was callous at the time. But now, I realised he was expressing a world weariness.
I now regret I didnot interview Michael Halliday on the matter.
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From the Beatles, Revolution:
Take two Okay
You say you want a revolution Well, you know We all want to change the world You tell me that it's evolution Well, you know We all want to change the world
But when you talk about destruction Don't you know that you can count me out (in)
Don't you know it's gonna be All right? Don't you know it's gonna be (all right) Don't you know it's gonna be (all right)
You say you got a real solution Well, you know We'd all love to see the plan You ask me for a contribution Well, you know We're all doing what we can
But if you want money for people with minds that hate All I can tell you is brother you have to wait
Don't you know it's gonna be (all right) Don't you know it's gonna be (all right) Don't you know it's gonna be (all right)
You say you'll change the constitution Well, you know We'd all love to change your head You tell me it's the institution Well, you know You better free your mind instead
But if you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao You ain't going to make it with anyone anyhow
Don't you know it's gonna be (all right) Don't you know it's gonna be (all right) Don't you know it's gonna be (all right)
All, all, all, all, all, all, all, all, all, all, all right All right, all right, all right, all right, all right
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According to the following points, describe your opinion:
  1. Economic Impact: Productivity
  2. Social Impact: Healthcare
  3. Ethical and Moral Considerations
  4. Legal and Governance Issues: Regulation
  5. Technological Advancements: Innovation
  6. Cybersecurity
  7. Environmental Impact: Sustainability
  8. Cultural and Creative Fields
  9. Global Dynamics: Geopolitics
  10. Digital Divide
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Despite the importance of artificial intelligence, especially in the field of the health sector and other magazines, the negatives outweigh the positives, especially in terms of ethics and the labor sector, as there are many fields in the labor sector that will disappear, leading to the spread of unemployment, and this affects the economic, social and political structure in the country. the society.
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This is a methodological discussion on Lithium, which I pose in form of three open questions: 1) Who to trust when it comes to lithium reserves? Usually It is assumed that there are still no International certification processes but rather evaluations by some National Geological Agencies. Considering that we could be talking about a real sensitive issue, is it possible to imagine other reliable sources? 2) How to determine, rigorously, the commercial value of lithium and its evolution over time? Some apps and/or specialized webs calculate the price of lithium carbonate, even in a clic, although it is difficult to determine where there is exactly negotiated. Are there reliable alternatives? 3) How to calculate, prospectively, the strategic value of lithium? I'm afraid that some forward-looking calculations are excessively linear. Considering the uncertain environment,, is itn't possible to think in a some kind of a correction factor? I have some ideas but I would like to hear your qualified voices Thank you very much
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Thank you, Ali but that exactly do you mean?
In fact that is precisely the problem I raise with my questions. Searching for "Lithium Resource in the world" seems referring me to Google? Mmmm
Anyway, I google and the system answers me: "According to the U.S. Geological Survey, there are 98 million metric tons of Lithium resources across the globe with the largest portion of these resources (53%) located in three South American countries" etc. Mmmmm
If I filter answers in search of more consistent results there is an inflation of primary and secondary data intertwined, where it's also complicated to distinguish between national and commercial interests
Related to the Lithium value, even pulling the financial thread it is not easy to determine its real market value and how it has evolved over time. Google, in this case, highlights a specialized website that don't provide any real source
Actually, this is a typical commodities problem, I know, but I wonder if there are some reliable estimation models that have already been proposed/constructed
Thank you again
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Why Read War and Peace? explained in: https://tableau.uchicago.edu/articles/2013/04/why-read-war-and-peace "...Tolstoy himself explained:It is not a novel, still less an epic poem, still less a historical chronicle. War and Peace is what the author wanted and was able to express, in the form in which it is expressed.” Readers will be surprised by the book's modern devices: stream of consciousness, cinematic point of view, shifting narrative voices. The great twentieth-century Russian author Isaac Babel said that when he read Tolstoy, he felt as if the world was writing itself...".
And in audio on:
And if we discussed? "War & Peace" in a debate, which to be enriching for all, must be totally dispassionate and fundamentally responsible.
Illustration: "Costume designer Edward Gibbon said he tried to capture the “essence and feelings” of Leo Tolstoy’s “War and Peace” when creating the wardrobe for the BBC TV drama, which is airing in the U.S. Like the book, Andrew Davies’ adaptation of Tolstoy’s masterpiece unfurls in Russia during Napoleon’s 1812 invasion and focuses on five aristocratic families and all the drama that the Napoleonic Wars drum into their lives.."
Read more and see the Gallery on:
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All my best wishes Sir!
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What are the bad aspects of geopolitics in international relations? Is it strengthening the spectra of globalization? Or blowing up national borders? Or expanding the concept of nationalism?
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Globalization in itself is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon . While it does have the potential to foster national borders in certain ways, it also poses challenges that could most likely lead to the erosion of both sovereign and territorial boundaries .
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Is China considered a geopolitical power?
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Yes, it is. But it does not mean that it can act forcefully, aggressively towards its neighbours and other countries.
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Is the geopolitical theorizing of power in international relations in development or is it in stagnation? Especially what is happening in the international arena and the new variables in global politics such as artificial intelligence?
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I can agree that discussion on the power in international relations is somewhat outdated, especially when you consider that the Mckinderism is still hugely popular, although this theory emerged over 100 years ago in completely different geopolitical realities. The most effective actions in international relations are driven by pragmatism rather than any theory. The successes of Chinese diplomacy over the past two decades can be testament to this. The question that arises is whether we need grand theory or rather analytical tools for an objective assessment of international relations.
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Does the Chinese geopolitical ring seek to tighten soft control over Africa? What are the most important pillars? Is it the Silk Road? Or is it the multipolar economic diplomacy?
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China has mastered the art of African needs and how to go about it, including adopting cultural diplomacy. Today, Chinese language is prioritized among African educated population, the Chinese government is also offering scholarship programs to Africans, while at the same time offering exchange programs at a good rate, though still behind Europe according to my opinion. With Tiktok influence, we are bound to see more fear among Africans of high level of racism in China diminishes, which then may translate to soft spot among African youths when it comes to China.
Nonetheless, Africans' pool of needs are wanting, meaning they is deficiency in their priority of the kind of relation they want with China. They keep it "mixed plate" - vitamins there, carbohydrates there, protein there....However, in the end, trade and infrastructural relations has upper hand.
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The Indo-Pacific is one of the modern concepts circulating in strategic and geopolitical studies, and it reflects important developments in contemporary geostrategic interactions in international relations.
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The Indo-Pacific region is a relatively new term in Geopolitics that mainly includes (some scholars define it as a broader region) the area between the Indian and the Pacific Ocean. Its importance lies in the fact that: a) many trade routes pass through it, b) China claims the majority of it as its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), and c) is the main field of China's conflict with Taiwan. Another factor that must be taken into consideration as far as Indo-Pacific is concerned is that many major international and regional actors such as the US, France, the EU, and Japan have expressed their interest in ensuring a safe maritime environment by deploying naval forces in the region, an act that may trigger China's reaction.
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China's rise to ‘great-power status’ in the 21st century, together with the growing
influence of the EU as a ‘normative power’2 has ushered in a period of significant geopolitical reorientations of the Central Asian states and of major external players. Specifically, over the past decade, the emergence of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization (SCO) appears to have relatively altered the existing ‘balance of power’ in the CA region. By inventing the SCO— an inter-governmental security cooperation organization China has markedly increased its presence throughout the region politically, culturally, economically and militarily.At the beginning of the 21st century, however, the EU’s foreign policy toward the CA states underwent radical changes. On the basis of empirical observation, it can be argued that the events of 9/11 accompanied by the rise in ‘global discourse on terrorism’ made EU policy makers more aware of the rising political profile and strategic importance of the CA countries and encouraged them to carve out a differentiated, meaningful and value-oriented strategy vis-à-vis the region. How do the EU's norms differ from the ones promulgated by the Chinese and Russians within the SCO club?
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Good question asked for almost a decade ago that its answers are visible to all contemporarily
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What are the scenarios of the Russian-Ukrainian war and its repercussions on the patterns of geopolitical power relations?
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The current crisis of the Western economy is not a recession because it is not cyclical and is not limited to 12-16 months. What is happening in the US and Europe today is a structural crisis, a process that began in the fourth quarter of 2021 and will continue for at least five years without interruption. However, the West does not understand the causes and essence of the crisis, because they do not have theories describing it. That is why, according to the economist, the American and European authorities are doing stupid things instead of effective measures to resolve problems.
It was impossible to avoid this crisis, because they went too far. They have expanded private consumption so much that they can no longer keep it. You need to name the main number. There is an indicator in the United States that they do not disclose in public discussion: this is the level of price growth for all industrial goods, not only for final goods entering the wholesale trade, but in general for everything, from raw materials to the final product. For the first time, the rise in prices for manufactured goods exceeded the level of the late 1970s. The previous peak was at the end of 1947. There are 23 with something percent.
The entire system of socio-political management in the West, both in the USA and in Europe, is built through representatives of the middle class, qualified consumers. Today this instrument is being destroyed. Instead of the middle class, new poor people appear, who have a middle-class attitude, but they have no money.
The sanctions pressure on Russia has exacerbated the economic problems of the West. European financiers note that EU politicians are afraid to take responsibility for decisions taken under the slogans of transatlantic solidarity and assistance to Ukraine.
In fact, this whole situation with global confrontation and the breakdown of the dollar system is disastrous for the United States not by economic factors, but by intellectual ones. Roughly speaking, Washington will undoubtedly lose to Moscow only because the US does not even have a concept of a plan to solve the colossal economic problems and save the dollar system.
Intellectual life in the US and Russia goes in opposite directions. The US has nothing left for a long time. There, no one can imagine even a weak positive scenario. The complete absence of any thought, not to mention the concept.
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Not so long ago, the impact of the pandemic on scientific research was widely discussed in the scientific society. Currently, the Russian-Ukrainian war also has a significant impact on the activities of scientists around the world. Please share to what extent this event affected your research.
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The warfare makes peaceful scientific cooperation very difficult; it produces a certain political climate, which resembles a Cold War 2. Ideological trench positions add to these relapse into ‚old times‘ of national systems rivalry, now all capitalist ones.
The primary source of war, according to Hobbes, is disagreement, because we read into it the most inflammatory signs of contempt. Both cause and remedy are therefore primarily ideological; managing interstate conflict requires not only coercive power, but also the soft power required to shape characters and defuse the effects of status competition.
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According to Risk.net (a Risk magazine that provides news and analysis covering the financial industry, with a particular focus on risk management, derivatives and complex finance), the Top 10 Operational Risk for 2022 are: IT disruption, Theft and fraud, Talent risk, Geopolitical risk, Information security, Resilience risk, Third-party risk, Conduct risk, Climate risk, Regulatory risk. In my opinion, the key risks today are geopolitical risk, cyber risk and climate risk. Do you think that these key risks will be as crucial in the world of tomorrow?
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Dear Radoica Luburić . The most dangerous risk comes from human. So the geopolitical risk is the most dangerous one since the human is the best inventor for the wars for short and long terms.
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Recently, my proposal "Enclave Dolarization: the case of the Triple Frontier of Paraná" was selected to participate in the project "Dollarizations in a global world: Socio-Anthropological Perspectives", promoted by the Latin American Council of Social Sciences (CLACSO) -> https://www.linkedin.com/posts/juan-agullo_dollarization-clacso-latinamerica-activity-6899724464477859840-9_ur
My hypothesis is that there are some "Enclave Dollarizations" that coexist with the most obvious "National Dollarizations" (Panama, Ecuador or, de facto, in Venezuela). These dollarizations usually take place in "exception" territories (such as free trade zones, tourist areas or borders, among others).
I'm working on a Tri-Border Area and I'm confronted with the classic methodological issues: absence of data; different statistical criteria (depending on the countries); lack of officials who speak openly about the question (dollarization, i.e., is related to smuggling; tax evasion, etc...).
I'm receptive to any methodological suggestion related with approaches, strategies and tools.
Thank you very much
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UNCIONA BIEN CUANDOESUDIO EL PAPEL D LAS REMESAS, EN MEXICO SE HA INCREMENTADO LA PARTICIPACION LABORAL DE LAS MUEJERES Y ESTO, HA DADDO PIE O HA MOSTRO RELEVANTES CUESTIONES DE GENERO, PERO ESTO DEPENDERA DE CADA INVESTIGACION, ESTO ES PARTE DE MI REPUESTA, SALUDOS A TODOS, GERMAN VEGAI ME FMA
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How India will respond to potential violent reactions at home, and manage regional diplomatic fallout. What can be the future and results of this decision in context of South Asian regional cooperation. Can we say that, in coming year, the move would see the Kashmirization of South Asia regional cooperation.
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I think it is a long-pending decision that might have been taken long back by the Government of India. Further, it is an internal issue of India and should not have any negative impact on the South Asian region. As it is visible now...
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The Duke and Duchess of Sussex announced their plans to keep their castle in England, and, in addition, to live in Canada and also to stay for part of the year in California. Further, they love Africa and they frequently make trips to Australia, New Zealand, and enjoy visiting the Orient.
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Evidently, the Sussexes have laid out explanations of the source of their current income, which primarily consists of the Sovereign Grant & provisions from the Duchy of Cornwall. The Sovereign Grant is derived from revenue of the Crown Estate; a portion of these public funds are issued as a grant to cover the royal family’s work in support of the Queen, helping pay for things like maintenance of official residences and offices.
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There is evidence of early interaction between European types and Chinese civilisations and European types may have originated in Siberia. Any thoughts?
ttps://www.academia.edu/44985404/Climate_Change_Geopolitics_and_Human_Settlements_in_the_Hexi_Corridor_over_the_last_5_000_Years
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Dear Michael, dear Stanley, dear all,
On the Central Asian theory, I read an interesting paper on Reseachgate Forensic features and genetic legacy of the Baloch population of Pakistan and the Hazara 2 population across Durand-line revealed by Y chromosomal STRs, evidencing that R M-207 came from Central Asia to Pakistan and Afghanistan around 10.000 BC. It was also found in Ganj Dareh around 10.000 BC. Moreover, the same study mentions that L1/LM-20 came from Pamir and this haplogroup was also found in the Caucasus, which pleads for a migration from the Pamir to the Caucasus. I will be interested by your comments. Best regards, Xavier
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This is a theoretical question that endeavors to address contemporary issues. My frame of reference is that world peace is the ideal. In conflict situations, what form of geopolitical combat might be the best or the most effective pathway to peace and national and international security?
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"To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the height of excellence. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the height of excellence."
- Sun Tzu, The Art of War
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In the scenario of changing climate, increasing population, Post COVID scenario, Geopolitical conflicts, it's the time for all the stake holders especially farmers to meet, discuss, plan and revisit the existing strategies related to the future of agricultural practices and plantation drives. Climate Smart Plantation could be one of the best solution to all the above mentioned and other challenges.
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The first step is choosing climate smart crops and planting them in such a way that there is no adverse impact on ecology. It should adhere to sustainably increase agricultural productivity and incomes, building resilience to climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 
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Ethiopia spent over $4.8 Billion over the last 9 years for the construction of the GERD with 6,000 Meggawatts of hydroelectric power.
If the global average price of electricity is about $0.20 per meggawatthours, how long is it going to take Ethiopia to get the $4.8 billion return? (hint: there are 8760 hours in one year). Is projects like GERD a viable and promising investiment? How?
I really need a detailed analysis by professionals in the area. Thanks!
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No country venture into renewable energy if it's unprofitable. I definitely believe that with the speed Ethiopia is developing, it's definitely a profitable project
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At fiften minutes past eight in the morning, on August 6, 1945, Japanese time, an atomic bomb was detonated above Hiroshima. Most of the city was destroyed, and by the end of that year 90,000–166,000 inhabitants had died as a result of the blast and its short-term effects. Epidemiological studies have documented increased disease burdens for malignant conditions among survivors including those exposed in utero, as well as risks for some noncancer diseases The psychosocial effects and consequences are less well studied, but remain substantial to this day. August 6, 2020 will be an opportunity for global remembrance of this human catastrophe.
DISCUSSION TOPIC: What as human beings and as scientists have we learned?
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Today, August 6th, 2020 is the 75th anniversary of this tragic event, part of the even greater tragedy of the 2nd World War. I am surprised that no RG follower has offered a response to the question posed, given the significance of the event. On this day however, it is noteworthy that Hiroshima's mayor took the opportunity to warn the world about the rise of "self-centered nationalism" and appealed for more international cooperation to overcome the Covid-19 pandemic. Apparently, memorial events have been drastically scaled back because of the pandemic.
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I understand:
- Probs of '(Seriese2-Serise3)/Serise3', 'Serise4', and C are significant enough since they are less than 5%.
- R-squared and Adjusted r square are good enough for my model in predicting 'Serise1': about 89% of 'Serise1' can be predicted.
But I'm not sure:
- Why 'Sum squared resid' is differ from 'Sum squared resid', and how should I interpret this?
- What exactly 'Log-likelihood' means, and if it is ok for 'Log-likelihood' to be this small (-130).
- Is it ok for F-statistics to be so high, even though Prob(F-statistic) is 0.000005?
In general, I'm not certain of my model... Maybe because I'm not that familiar with econometrics but international relations. I tried to express one of the opinions from international relation into econometrics with a simple regression model. I would be really grateful if I can get some help.
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Very good contribution Anton Rainer
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I worked in the procurement profession for > 10 years. Recently I have read nearly 1/2 dozen trade articles which described of cancelled thousands fashion/textile orders. Is this caused by geopolitics events, healthcare activities and/or potential recession? I am interested in global opinions.
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The buyers are most likely responding to a projected demand drop by consumers. Several manufacturers who supply western customers have mentioned this as an issue with the buyers.
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I need literature (monographs, articles, strategic documents, etc), rather basic, to receive understanding about geopolitical developments in Latin America.
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It's my pleasure... Many thanks for initiating the discussion...
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I need literature (monographs, articles, strategic documents, etc), rather basic, to receive understanding about geopolitical developments in Africa.
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Zaoui Rabah Thanks al lot!
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From a recent world-wide study, that I was part of, that was the conclusion, putting it perhaps too bluntly. It was fascinating to be part of this expert commission but now the question is: what is to be done?
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Ronaldo Munck Congrats for the work.
Frederic Lowen is very close to my holistic view of cognition, economic action and human health.
In addition, I would say that the works of Silvio Gesell have a lot of economic options to offer for the next decades.
The sensitization of human thought and will for new economic bargaining models (the win/win economy) is the key to unlock the door for better living chances.
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As a student, I have always read that the probability of getting a job in the oil industry is related to its value in the international market. Please enlighten me with some political reasons associated with unstabilized, always changing oil prices which reaches $ 147 sometimes and sometimes only $30.
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I advise to read the following articles:
Hilal M S Al-Mamaari, Hussein A Kazem, and Miqdam T Chaichan, “Climate Change: the Game Changer in the Gulf Cooperation Council Region”, Elsevier-Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review (RSER, ISSN: 1364-0321), September 2017, Vol. 76, pp. 555-576.
Hilal M S Al-Mamaari, Hussein A Kazem, and Miqdam T Chaichan, “The impact of oil price fluctuations on common renewable energies in GCC countries”, Elsevier-Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review (RSER, ISSN: 1364-0321), 2017, Vol. 75, pp. 989-1007.
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It is said that fossil fuels, particularly oil & gas, comsuption is the main cause of carbon dioxide production that leads to global warming in the last 40 years or so....
If these fuels were not blamed, could any research on cleaner (greener) energies had been easily justified, being so costly? Does anyone have the idea of how much just exponential population increase impacts global temperature? It is clear that the northern hemisphere is the more affected one by this actual temperature increase. Should we start thinking of controlling expansion of human beings on Earth for the sake of the planet (pollution & contamination reduction) and our own survival? Just out loud thinking!!!!
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I had not read your reflection carefully. I agree with your approaches. In fact, in much of the literature, it is stated that the main global problem facing our planet is precisely the exponential growth of its population. This leads, increasingly, to a greater demand for resources for the activities of man, food and water to meet the demand of the growing population and, to satisfy those who control economic power. This scenario makes me think about the following question, will this year's fires in our Amazon have any relation to this global problem?
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The clouds are gathering - news from the global stock markets, gyration of oil prices, several hot spots in global geopolitical tensions autarky/rising nationalism, worsening climate change and the the trade wars, particularly between the US and China, among others - and these don't potend good news for the global economy. Are we headed to a recesion? If yes, when do we expect this and what are the survival options?
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At present, technology has reached a high peak that human never been there before, which, of course, boomed economy to a top of its history. Side effects of these, geopolitical tensions and global heating were resulted, of which, I think cannot be solved by technology itself because of the limitation of the overall energy transform efficiency--each type of it has drawbacks. For options, I believe, the mankind should be self-disciplined, that is, try to live a frugal life, control the population. A large part of energy consumption is transportation. We supply ourselves mostly by local products, no good to be supplied by global companies. Use technology that only necessary. Modern is not everything and it has to be limited at a best point. Extreme capitalism may ruin our planet finally.
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I am studying the impact of Geopolitical risk (independent variable) on WTI crude oil prices (dependent variable) over the monthly period 1985-2019. Since, i am studying how much GPR causes oil prices changes, i was wondering what kind of statistical test or method can I deploy to study whether the relationship between the two is deteriorating or not.
So, I'd like to find out whether the impact of GPR on oil prices is stronger in the period 2000-2019 compared to 1985-2000. or even small time periods.
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Hi,
As for methodological approach, I am dealing with the similar kind of research, so I would like to advise you using either 1) interrupted time series (ITS) analysis (described i.e. at “Experimental and quasi-experimental designs for generalized causal inference” by W. R. Shadish et al., 2002), or, if you prefer qualitative methods, 2) Longitudinal case selection strategy, which is kind of ITS analysis (from “Selecting Cases for Intensive Analysis: A Diversity of Goals and Methods by John Gerring and Lee Cojocaru, 2016).
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The British periodical "Truth" published in its 1890 Christmas edition a cartoon entitled "The Kaiser's Dream" [1]. In the cartoon, the Kaiser imagines a transformed Europe. Most of the nations which in 1890 were led by crowned heads had been replaced by republics. Some republics lay within familiar borders (e.g. "British Republic"). Others were fragmented (e.g. the "German Republics"). But Russia had been transformed into a "desert" ("Russian Desert"). Was the 1917 Russian Revolution the first stage in the roll-out of a long-planned Western regime-change project? If so, was the project's aim to use communism as a means of impeding Russian industrialization?
More proximate is the circumstance that in April 1917 Germany facilitated the transit across Germany in a sealed railway carriage of Lenin and other Bolsheviks. From Germany's wartime perspective, they were enemy aliens. Upon Lenin's arrival in Petrograd, he called for Russia's immediate withdrawal from the war. Russian withdrawal would have the strategic effect of enabling Germany to concentrate its efforts on the Western Front. The related Treaty of Brest-Litovsk followed in March 1918. By its terms, Russia not only withdrew from the war but also ceded industrialized regions to Germany. Was Lenin a German agent?
It is arguable that the Britain and France fomented the First World War with the intention of using Germany as a sword with which to strike at Russia, their nominal ally in the Triple Entente. Did Germany, having been lured into war, then opportunistically exploit the Bolsheviks as a means of closing the onerous Eastern Front?
Thanks in advance for shedding light on these and related matters.
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The simple answer to most of your questions is no. The Bolshevik Revolution was not a long-planned regime change project by the West.
To start, the role of Germany in Lenin going to Russia was largely peripheral. Outside of allowing the sealed train to pass through Germany on its way to Russia, that was extent of their role and this largely seems to be the consensus of the field today. There is no evidence that Lenin or the Bolsheviks were directly sent by, or funded by, Germany. [1] When Lenin arrived, his calling for the end of war was something that was in line with his long-held beliefs. He even broke with the Second International, declaring it ideologically bankrupt, when at the outbreak of war, many socialist parties supported their nation’s war effort instead of promoting pacifism or turning it into a revolutionary wave. On top of that, it had a pragmatic purpose – much of Russia was sick of the war and this was a way of the Bolsheviks to reach the people. It certainly could be seen as benefiting the Germans in their war effort, but that was more an unintended result, not the motivation.[2]
The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, signed in March 1918, was something the Bolsheviks signed reluctantly and largely under duress. When the negotiations began in late 1917, they wanted to bring all warring parties to the negotiating table and develop a peace that was free from indemnities, free from reparations and enforced self-determination. When the Entente Powers refused to attend, the Bolsheviks attempted to sign such a peace solely with the Central Powers. They delayed, however, with hopes of revolution coming to Austria and Germany, having leaflets passed out on the streets of Berlin and Vienna, although to little effect. The Central Powers eventually become sick of the delays and offered a peace on their terms. Leon Trotsky leaves the negotiations, declaring the Bolshevik war effort over, showing the naivety of the Bolsheviks to European diplomacy. The Germans continue their campaign into Russia and Lenin forces his party to accept a harsh peace to defend the revolution and allow the Bolsheviks to focus on the growing civil war. [3]
Finally, the Allied Intervention was something that developed once forces were on the ground. The research of Brock Millman argues that many British soldiers made decisions far from central command to get involved. [4] DeWitt Clinton Poole, whose reminiscences are now available in published form, an American diplomat in Russia at the time of the revolution, makes clear the Entente Powers genuinely wanted to reopen the Eastern Front and get involved in the Russian Civil War for a number of reasons, all a result of circumstance. [5]
Finally, to throw another wrench into such a theory as you describe is the very limited role that Britain plays in the coming of the First World War, largely deciding to get involved after a series of agonizing meetings, none of which ensured that the British would enter until the very end. France can be argued to have played a role in ensuring the Russians would respond antagonistically to any action by Austro-Hungary or Germany in the July Crisis, and supporting them the entire way. Christopher Clark emphasizes this in his work. At the same time, it would be difficult to suggest Germany was lured into the war as they were equally willing to consider military means and openly stated such to their allies. If there was any way to suggest Germany was “lured” into the war, it would be in their response to Russian mobilization. [6] So even that part of the theory does not seem to stand scrutiny.
I hope this answers some of the questions you had and I’m happy to respond to others too!
[1] See S.A. Smith, Russia in Revolution: An Empire in Crisis 1890-1928 (Oxford University Press, 2017), 110-111.
[2] See Lars T. Lih, Lenin (Reaktion Books, 2011).
[3] Some of my research details this. See The Communist International, Anti-Imperialism and Racial Equality in British Dominions (Routledge, 2018). Also see Michael Jabara Carley, A Silent Conflict: A Hidden History of Early Soviet-Western Relations (Rowman & Littlefield, 2014), 11-13.
[4] Brock Millman, “The Problem with Generals: Military Observers and the Origins of the Intervention in Russia and Persia, 1917-18,” Journal of Contemporary History 33(2): 291-320.
[5] DeWitt Clinton Poole, An American Diplomat in Bolshevik Russia, edited by Lorraine M. Lees and William S. Rodner (University of Wisconsin Press, 2014).
[6] Christopher Clark, The Sleepwalkers: How Europe went to War in 1914 (Harper Perennial, 2012).
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How Geopolitics of Indian Ocean Region is affected by growing Indian Navy and her presence at strategic located Duqm Port, increasing activity of China in IOR and CPEC at Gwadar. How this all going to shape the region and going to affect role of Pakistan Navy.
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Important also is India's relations with Iran and the continuing development of Iran's Charbahar Port, permitted at this stage with the US 6 month waiver to India, and a waiver on the development the above port, and transport links through Afghanistan. The US recognises the importance of India's relations with Afghanistan, and has weakened it sanctions against Iran in the interests of its broader policy in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific.
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China's economic and technological growth has made it a global power with geopolitical impact across Eurasia. The country borders on 14 states and has a direct maritime border with three others (Japan, Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan - not recognized as an independent state).
In this sense, the Belt and Road Initiative is not only a plan for building infrastructure but a broad vision for the future of Eurasia integration. This strategic vision comprises geo-economic elements and is based on geopolitical factors. The ability to move forward with the values and ideals that surround the initiative will be essential for its consolidation.
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The Silk Road connecting China with the rest of the world. It is considered the most important commercial road that was used by Muslims to spread the Islamic Religion to countries in Asia. Also it was used to exchange goods between China and countries in Asia, Africa and Europe.
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Lately many countries across the world is shifting towards protectionism where they are extensively controlling free trade, commerce and immigrations. Climate change on the other hand globally has been driving force from Syria's armed conflict (To read more go to: https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/03/150302-syria-war-climate-change-drought/) to all the way Cape Town's Day Zero. Climate change laid the path to syrian conflict thereby changing the geopolitical landscape of European countries where countries like UK went through Brexit, Sweden is on verge of deciding to be part of EU.
There is some kind of faint correlation (hypothesis) that climate change is driving the geopolitical situations of many countries towards protectionism. And many countries are voting for protectionist ideologies because they know resources would be one of the key survival element for their country. Since climate change is going to get severe as per recent IPCC's report countries shift towards protectionism is largely because of the future prediction of global temperatures which can bring droughts, failed crops and many other extensive issues. Is there anyway this hypothesis holds true? Has anyone come across any paper or report that talks about this kind of situations or in similar lines? Please share if you know about it. The question is a hypothesis which I would really like to explore in details. Thanks for responding.
Keywords: Climate Change, Politics & International Relation, Protectionism, Geopolitics
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Thank you for the response. Though I haven't read the article you shared until now. As far as I understand the geopolitics is largely played for resources. The more resources you control the more powerful the influence you have on other countries. Geopolitics along with climate change are globally phenomena somewhere I personally feel (hypothesis) because of resource control these two things are playing along with each other and the outcomes like Brexit, European Refugee crisis, Bangladesh migration issues etc are connected to it. I am curious to find those connections.
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In geopolitics and international trade policies, developing nations are treated as if they were just a trivial appendage. Yet, the rest of the world is inseparably interconnected with them. The surviving WWII veterans still living across Africa, for example, are evidence of the extent to which global events can affect developing nations. The recent recession also provides another reminder.
- What are the implications of the US-China, US-EU trade wars for developing economies?
- Which proactive measures should governments in developing economies take before any nasty awakening?
Intra-African trade, BRICS power...anyone? Your thoughts are more than welcome.
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The US-China, US-EU trade wars have direct and indirect consequences that negatively affect the economies of developing countries. Inflation as well as the cost of living is steadily rising in these countries whose quality of life represented in the domains of health, education and GDP per capita is deteriorating (for example, Turkey, Iran and Egypt among other countries). The governments of the developing countries are facing a serious threat. A country like Iran that tries to be economically independent faces grave sanctions. BRICS and Intra-African trade might succeed in fixing some domestic issues, but need to work hard at the global level.
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I am interested in geopolitical aspects of the First and Second World Wars, particularly in the Anglo-Saxon attempts to re-create these conflicts as Russo-German wars.
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Dear Zlatko Hadzidedic,
I appreciate your participation in the project.
Best,
Evgeny
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These are in my view very interesting and relevant questions recently posed by Claudio Minca in a recent special issue of Geographische Zeitschrift. (see also Jöns 2018)
Minca, C. (2018) The cosmopolitan geographer’s dilemma. Geographische Zeitschrift, 106, 4-15,
Jöns, H. (2018). The international transfer of human geographical knowledge in the context of shifting academic hegemonies. Geographische Zeitschrift, 106, 27-37
see attachments
To illustrate his main point, here one quote from his paper (Minca 2018, p. 10)
“is there anything specifically Italian/German/Austrian in the work of Ital­ian/German/Austrian geographers that enjoys a demonstrable readership? When an international debate, say, on climate change or Middle East geopolitics is already largely available on the web and represents a site where major work and perspectives are dis­cussed globally, is there anything specific that German or Italian or Austrian geography has to say about that topic? These questions are even more important when theory is concerned: how do you manage, produce, and circulate theory coming from non-Anglophone universities? For example, is geographical theory produced in Germany, Italy, or Austria adopted elsewhere? Is its specificity suitable to contribute, from a German/ Italian/Austrian perspective, to international debates? How? And if not, why?“
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Capitalism is producing and reproducing uneven patterns of development and power relations. The same holds in the case of Academic capitalism.
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In Central Asia region some countries had joined to Euroasia custon union but others still weiting for finding best ways of integration. For example Uzbekistan postponed its joining to Euroasia custom union taking into count Geopolitical situation in the region.
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Europe was not ripe neither when the European integration process started... After WWII, the 06 founding member states realised that international politics is much more than a zero-sum game. Of course, they had their own project (including a European Union), but they first focused on Euratom, the Coal & Steel community (at that time, binding states by coal & steel was the best way to prevent a new war...) and the EEC. It took more than 50 years to reach where we are nowadays with a European Union (but we still face challenges following internal dissent amongst the MS and the consequences of the Brexit).
The EU, Russia and China have their separate interests in the region: Russia via the EAEU (1st step being an Eurasian regional integration, then potential partnerships with the EU could be possible...) or the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), China not only with the Shangai Cooperation Organisation (SCO, including fighting terrorism, religious extremism and separatism) but also with its One Belt One Road (OBOR) Initiative (or BRI); and the EU with its willingness to engage with bilateral agreements (the ENPs).
To counter these trends, (some) Central Asian states relied on multivectorism (Teleuova, 2015) while dimensioning their foreign policy...
The question should therefore be:
- what type of regional development do the Central Asian states want (economic, military or political)?
- if centered on economic integration within the EAEU project, why do we only have Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan within the EAEU (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan aren't EAEU MS)?
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I am doing my doctoral research in business and management and was wondering to ask if you have any suggested readings that covers the research methods in geopolitics in specific . Many thanks
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The following title may be useful:
Eller, Gerber, & Robinson. Public Administration Research Methods: Tools for Evaluation and Evidence-Based Practice. New York, NY: Routledge.
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I am a student of Manipal University, India and currently pursuing my Masters in Geopolitics and International Relations. I am in my last semester and have to submit a dissertation. My topic for dissertation is "Advances in ICT and the likely nature of warfare." Since you are an expert in the field of cybersecurity, could you answer few of my Questions, which I can use for my dissertation, with your due permission.
PFA the Research Proposal that has been approved by the university and the submission deadline is 10 March 2018
Other Questions
  • Is the nature of warfare changing? If yes, then do you attribute this change to advances in ICT technology or are there other factors? Or you consider it as a cyclic process i.e. The form of warfare is ever changing even traditionally nation-states tend to gain superiority against their adversaries by innovating new means to deter and in the process are changing the ways wars were fought?
  • Can we build a safer world?
  • What are the emerging and future technologies that we will have to worry the most about from a security perspective?
  • How should an organization think about cyber defense? What are the limits of a ‘perimeter-oriented’ security posture?
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1 -The nature of the war is the same, "more"; just the styles has changed based up on each historical, and geopolitical reasons. Also, ICT-technology is not first revolution that human kind has experienced in the continental or international level ( renaissance, industrial age, modern era); it may be our first time to experience it in our life-time. 2 - Is it the first time that international organizations such as United Nations or others try hard to make the world a better place?! This would be part of the self-conflicting nature of human to stage, and personalize him or herself for "more", but as usual, the tough times and regresses would constrain him for less. 3 - Usually, after each revolution, there is a confusion period in the social values and standards, because of a fluctuations in privileges versus side-effects, and this could be the next emerging one.
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Third party access concerns users of energy infrastructure. It is established under european guidelines in order to enhance competition and energy security in Europe.
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Its clear for everyone that follows the ascension of BRICS, that South Africa has joined to sum. On the other hand, the characteristics that were present in other economies that convinced Jim O`Neill to present the initial acronym are not in SA. Strategically seems to be good. Geopolitically, geographically and the technical cooperation seems to be promising. So, is SA another BRIC or in fact, the mortar? Or it has another role not clearly understood?
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In any case, BRICS (with or without South Africa) is a theoretical construct putting together counties of very different development dynamics and structural characteristics. The only common element is that they are all big. If we really want to understand how our world is shaped, we have to consider "non-BRICS" emerging markets, too. And here I do not mind if we refer to economies covered by new acronyms (such as the second most popular CIVETS) or not. In fact, a too orthodox use of acronyms may hinder our analysis because we would be limited to the countries that are included in them.
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I would like to work on a research paper related to the benefits of Regional Power Integration in the Eastern Africa Region, this might include the Geopolitics, the social aspect etc of 8 to 10 countries. Any idea? Anyone who can support me with ideas? how to go about it? or any related idea?
Thanks.
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From conflict management or mediation perspective, integration through regional power integration reduces players in intervention efforts and hence increase likelihood of ceasefire. As Yuri Yugorov talks of balance in disparities, such network can promote weak state economies.
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the Feminization of Migration Which is the recent tendency of Mexican Migration to the United States?
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Some pulications I came across when writing on migration, but not with emphasis on Mexican - US migration. Most of the papers I have in hardcopies and could scan them, but it should be possible to get them easily....
Katharine M. Donato
A dynamic view of Mexican migration to the United States
Springer-Verlag
Gender Issues
Year:1999
Month:12
Volume:17
Issue:1
First page:52
Last page:75
Ivan Light; Elsa Von Scheven
Mexican Migration Networks in the United States, 1980–2000
Wiley Blackwell (Blackwell Publishing)
International Migration Review
Year:2008
Month:
Day:
Volume:42
Issue:3
First page:704
Last page:728
Stephen T. Fairchild; Nicole B. Simpson
Mexican Migration to the United States Pacific Northwest
Springer (Kluwer Academic Publishers)
Population Research and Policy Review
Year:2004
Month:06
Day:
Volume:23
Issue:3
First page:219
Last page:234
Jorge Durand and Douglas S. Massey
Mexican Migration to the United States: A Critical Review
JSTOR
Latin American Research Review
Year:1992
Month:
Day:
Volume:27
Issue:2
First page:3
Last page:42
Jorge Durand and Douglas S. Massey
Mexican Migration to the United States: A Critical Review
JSTOR
Latin American Research Review
Year:1992
Month:
Day:
Volume:27
Issue:2
First page:3
Last page:42
Zenteno, R.; Giorguli, S. E.; Gutierrez, E.
Mexican Adolescent Migration to the United States and Transitions to Adulthood
Sage Publications
The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science
Year:2013
Month:07
Day:01
Volume:648
Issue:1
First page:18
Last page:37
Massey, Douglas S.; Gentsch, Kerstin
Undocumented Migration to the United States and the Wages of Mexican Immigrants
Wiley Blackwell (Blackwell Publishing)
International Migration Review
Year:2014
Month:06
Day:
Volume:48
Issue:2
First page:482
Last page:499
Hamilton, Erin R.; Savinar, Robin
Two Sources of Error in Data on Migration From Mexico to the United States in Mexican Household-Based Surveys
Springer-Verlag
Demography
Year:2015
Month:8
Day:
Volume:52
Issue:4
First page:1345
Last page:1355
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Puerto Rico's GDP growth rate has been negative or stagnant since 2006, a recession that will continue in the near future. Does anyone know of any country or state with a recorded recession of more than 11 years?
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The recessionary trends which resulted in the aftermath of both the World Wars created cycles of recession which lasted in between 2-4 years. However, it is to be understood that they were a result of the destruction caused due to the war and the subsequent process of rebuilding. The present case of negative growth of 11 straight years is something which is unheard of. There are the cases of Venezuela and Zimbabwe struggling with hyperinflation in the past years but recession for such long period is something which is unique in its own way.
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the term micro finds mention wrt to border problems in Central Asian States.
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It is early and I myself use only the term geopolitics (assuming there is an economic dimension) and understand low geopolitics but prefer to see geopolitics as a register where small border conflicts feed into geopolitics up and down the register. In my view sometimes the best way to get past a definitional or terminological problem is to not add yet another term. I am sleep deprived but I do think geopolitics can be used high and low to describe certain situations without having to put an adjective in front of it necessarily. Best, Marcos
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Since the first world war, Russia, or USSR, and most recently The Russian federation appears to be a region that certainly presents unique features in terms of conflict, tension, resources, hegemony and ideology. Recent events with the Ukraine testify to a specific political agenda that aims to build a barrier that distinguishes the region with clear demarcation lines from Westernn Europe.Little is known about the geopolitical schools of thought of the region, especially with geopolitics more and more taught in Business schools and other university courses. Are there any reasons in your opinion why this is so?
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Perhaps not as sufficiently in anglophone world. But, be assured, media might be covering it and relevant agencies might be analysing it.
This word, after cold world, became a unipolar, wherein America played important role. After Obama, now vacuum is being filled by China. China's geopolitics is important in research and down to textbooks. 
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I am looking for long-term time series on intra-EEC/intra-EU trade. I want to see how trade within the common market has developed since the 1950s and how the share of intra-community trade on total EEC/EU trade has evolved.
EUROSTAT only provides recent data (EU15 since 1990, EU28 since 2002, other small variations) and with a fixed EEC/EU composition. The WTO, in turn, provides longer time series (total trade since the 1940s, intra-EEC/EU trade since the 1980s), but still with a fixed EEC/EU composition. Do you know of any source which allows to quantify the evolution of trade within the European common market (evolving composition of the EEC/EU, current prices, euro or dollars, exports & imports of goods or current account)?
Thanks a lot for your assistance.
Best regards,
Dr Paolo Chiocchetti
Research Associate, University of Luxembourg
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Direction of Trade Statistics by IMF contains trade flow of all countries with other countries on monthly, quarterly and annual frequency. Please try it.
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I am looking for info on turkish labor camps for jews and other minorities during world war two.
Is there any evidence for construction of extermination facilities (that weren't used) i.e gas chambers and/or crematoria by Turkey during 1941-1943 for the possibility of german victory against the USSR?
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I don't know too much detaled info about your interesting but I found this short note from Jewish Telegraphic Agency (JTA), dated on December 9, 1943 and given in Cairo.
I hope it could be a little added value to your research.
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I am interested in studying narratives from Latin America (esp. Mexico) focusing on topics such as money, precarity, debt, esp. from the years from the external debt crisis to present.  I am very familiar with recent literature and film from Spain, but not so much from Latin America.  I know novels such as Piglia’s Plata quemada, Gumucio’s La deuda, Ortuño’s Recursos Humanos and films such as Amores perros, El baño del Papa, 7 cajas, La deuda (Oliver's Deal)...
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Positive and negative impacts of colonialism in Africa.
Liberation movement in Africa
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There is no colonialism at my country but there are criminal movement (ISIS) and the resources for this criminal movement is Saudi, Qatar, and other gulf countries all of them represents ISIS
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I am working on an empirical analysis of the post-cold war international order from a multidimensional perspective, and I would like to capture the possible evolution of the "global system" and how countries fit into it. Some proxies would be i.e. Military expenditure, CO2 emissions, global inequality.
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Apart from other people's ideas here, one interesting strategy would be to include some of the "soft-power" indicators. There is some good soft-power research out there, you should check for example the The Soft power 30 by Portland Communications.
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Introduction.
A. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will “provide financing to any entity or enterprise operating in the territory of a AIIB’s member, as well as to international or regional agencies or entities concerned with economic development of the Asia region.”
The AIIB’s strategic goals are:
1. sustainable infrastructure development
2. cross country connectivity
3. catalyzing private finance .
 
B. “One Belt – One Road” (OBOR) Project is within frames of the AIIB’s mission. Therefore the investments outside Asia could also be financed by AIIB, especially railway tracks, logistic centres alongside the OBOR’s paths, general cross-continental road infrastructure.
C. I take as assumption necessity of cooperation between EU and South-East Asia region in long-term perspective (increasing PPP, number of inhabitants, regional advanced technology investments, alternative in market diversification strategy, FDI opportunities as a base for TNC expansion).
D. This is a fact that Chinese FDI placed in EU are focused on:
1. exploration of various industries know-how
2. advantages of access to the European resources within domestic market (EU market)
3. and advantages of gained specialization within a value chain.
Questions:
1. Do European companies perceive OBOR as opportunity for their development? If yes, in what categories:
a/ expansion through FDI’s,
b/ participation in foreign investment projects?
2. Where geographically could they expend? Which sectors are preferred?
3. Do the strategies of companies development very between various EU countries? Different expectations of advanced technologies countries and those where lower labour cost factor is their main competitive advantage?
4. How GDP structure impacts on interests in the OBOR development within EU? Are export orientated countries (e.g. produced in Germany goods and exported, have a significant share in German GDP) more interested in cross-country connectivity improvements, than countries utilizing this paths mainly for import?
5. Does the train road change a lot in the course of maritime cargo well-being? Could one notice other determinants refocusing the transportation means towards inland areas?
6. And finally, are the AIIB’s funds expected by EU countries as co-financial means of such infrastructure projects on the territory of EU (Poland, Slovakia, Hungry, Czech Republic, Austria, Germany or even further towards West)?
Kind regards,
Karol
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Dear Karol,
thank you for your interest in the FIW project as well as your interesting and detailed questions regarding our policy brief on the “One Belt – One Road” (OBOR) strategy.
Our policy brief approached the analysis of OBOR from an international trade perspective. To answer your question, a firm-level survey would be necessary. The results might, however, be sobering: Even if European companies would like to engage in infrastructure investment projects, we think that the probability of large-scale employment effects is pretty low given the excess capacities that China has to reduce, particularly in the construction sector. From a political point of few, the direct participation in infrastructure investments would be most desirable, as it would go along with direct employment effects.
Regarding sectors, it really depends on the expertise in the country. In the case of Austria, we do have special expertise in tunnel construction and cable cars, which we could bring in directly in foreign investment projects. We could also be attractive for cooperation in the field of research or as a ‘gateway’ for trade with Southeastern and Eastern Europe, given the long lasting trade relationships and geographical proximity. Other countries for sure are competing for projects in the fields of construction of power plants, railways, harbour infrastructure and telecommunication networks.
Geographically, I would argue that a strong focus will be given to the Western Balkans, given the Chinese investments in Greek harbours. But regarding the economic and political turbulences in Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan, I do not dare to speculate on whether European firms are eager to invest in countries along the “one belt” land route.
If we look at the current plans of the ‘new sild road’, it appears that in Europe countries with low labour costs will be recipients of investments, whereas countries with a comparative advantage in technologies compete in strategies how they can actively participate in these investments. Whether FDI destination countries can profit from employment effects is questionable – again: due to the Chinese excess capacities. Although Eastern European countries do have a cost advantage over Western European countries, they probably don’t in comparison with Chinese labour.
In general, I can follow your argument, that there should be a difference in the perception of transport infrastructure investments, whether an EU country is a net exporter or net importer. My counter-question is: Is this question valid for ‘the factory of the world’? As you have already mentioned, it is more or less only Germany, that in the EU (also sometimes Scandinavian countries and the BENELUX states) that run surpluses. So one might want to distinguish the effect for Germany (the greatest net-exporter) and the rest of the EU.
I think your argument is, that net exporters appreciate better trading routes, whereas net-importers fear these developments. For OBOR this might not be true, as particularly low income countries and net importers are targeted by investments, stimulating the economies.
New train connections will for sure impact maritime transport, e.g. potentially shifting cargo from the Netherlands or Italy to Greece, with further on land transport to Eastern and Western Europe via rail.
Projects of the AIIB which have already been approved do not target European countries. Also in the future, AIIB investments will not focus on investments in Europe, but the presence of many European countries within the AIIB signatories might allow for more inclusive projects (involving EU members’ firms and expertise).
Best wishes,
Julia
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I am doing a project on "geopolitical impact on international trade between SAARC countries" , so I need some model by which I can measure the relationship between these countries.
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Dear Abhishek,
Some people would use a gravity model. But there are many people who are skeptical about it.
Once you study a group of countries together, you must control for the rest of the world. Any other way would be only a partial (not general) equilibrium analysis. There are some data bases such as GTAP and Penn World Tables that provide data for the global economy. You should take a look at them.
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Hi everyone, I'm going to graduate in one month. Among three topics, I chose the one about "Sovereignty and regionalisms". Could you please advise me on papers, books, articles about this topic? Thank you very much.
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Many thanks Chaminda, it is very useful!!
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What is the influence of geopolitical crisis' on tourism of the country, on tourism of neighboard countries and on international tourism in general.
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War condition and unstable political environment create adverse impact on tourism. It decrease flow of tourist and even hamper development but war tourism is one of new trend few experts and media person will come to visit war zone
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The impact of mastery of the seas and establish military bases on national security .
National security threats and vulnerabilities in countries that have maritime border.
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I have forwarded a link to something I wrote in 2011 on the global commons.  http://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/managing-change  Hope you find it useful.
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Presencing, taken by Heidegger relate to the very act of happening, pulsating of the world, above and beyond human subjectivity. How could we deal with this issue of subjectivity in migration and temporary mobility?
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Sure, I will send you my published research.
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Any application or existing publication or any research/idea you aware of ?
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Very interesting question!
I am not aware of any application, but I am pretty sure there is great potential for such an application. Both geo- and politics aspects are fractal, although the latter is more human or society related. In fact, both nature and society are fractal. To better understand, we need a new definition of fractal which is based on the notion of far more small things than large ones; see these two papers
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I am currently researching for a university project which could potentially turn into my dissertation, the title of the essay is: 
Horsepower:  Impact of motorised transport on military logistics
You are required to produce an essay that identifies and evaluates the employment of motorised transport in support of military logistics.    You can draw examples from any military campaign or war between 1861 AD and 2014 AD.
Motorised transport is defined as any means of transport that propelled by an engine.
For this i am specifically looking into the withdrawal of the military from Afghanistan and how the use of the the Internal combustion engine has effected this, (this includes the use of rail, road, air and maritime logistics).
Any information would be much appreciated,
Many Thanks  
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Here are some links - with statistical data - you might want to look at:
Logistics: The high cost of leaving Afghanistan (Feb 2015), https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlog/20150223.aspx
The crazy logistics of packing up the US war in Afghanistan (April 2014), http://theweek.com/articles/447435/crazy-logistics-packing-war-afghanistan
The mammoth military task of leaving Afghanistan (Jan 2014), http://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-25848662
In addition it might also be worthwhile looking at reports published by the US GAO (http://www.gao.gov) and the UK NAO (https://www.nao.org.uk)
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I am interested in the role the US government and the US O&G industry played during the 1970s in Norway. Can anyone recommend literature on this subject? Thank you.
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Dear Heiko, you may want to check the publications of Tore Jørgen Hanisch, and also Ole Gunnar Austvik. They were leading among the early students of the emerging Norwegian oil and gas sector, Hanisch also as head of a large project entitled "Norwegian Oil History" during the 1980s and -90s. 
Good luck, Olav
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Historians and political scientists have often talked about great powers without ever really defining them. Waltz (1979) believes that the question is "an empirical one, and common sense can answer it" (131). But is it common sense? Is Russia today a great power? Is India?
Other scholars claim that great power status can be determined by consensus. But, is there such consensus today? Can we rely on the observation of Organski and Kugler that elite nations "are few enough to stand out clearly from the rest of the members of the international system" (1980, 42)?
Similarly, how does the concept relate to the definition of power itself, and if there is a threshold, where should it be?
Such problems make it difficult to talk about great powers, yet the term is omnipresent in literature. Is this a problem?
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Power by definition is the ability (possessed by ‘A’- a state or coalition of states) to influence or make B (nonconforming state, 'rogue state', etc) do something that they wouldn't otherwise opt to. Nonconforming or rogue state because great power status confers the ability to establish the system, set the values and rules within the system. This can be achieved through various means; coercive capabilities, persuasive capabilities, cooperation, among other technologies of power and states have employed either of these means singularly or in combination to achieve the desired effect or interest. This has been true through centuries and millenia witnessed in the fall of Athens in the Hellenic league, the fall of Napoleon Bonaparte, the fall of Nazi Germany under Adolf, as well as the first and second the Gulf wars. In this regard, great power status is defined by states in possession of both material and immaterial capabilities; the soft power and hard power of a state or a coalition of states.
Therefore, threshold for a great power is the totality of power itself (the extent to which a state or coalition of it can satisfy that influence over others and the system in general). Morgenthau’s Politics Among Nations documents the elements of national power that feed into making a great power. Basing on this, no single factor guarantees this status.
What does it contrast with? Certainly not weak powers. The latter is the extreme of the two case scenarios under discussion and one that does not suffice to understand great power status. The only contrast to a great power can be a contending power which has the material capabilities relative to the great power. From the atomic bomb to the fall of the former soviet republic during the Cold war, the US thus qualified as a great power.
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Most fragility indices measures state weakness based on domestic factors. But states in international system do not operate in isolation. Powerful global factors are at play that often affects state's performance. Global factors like terms of trade, colonialism, legacy of cold war, geopolitics are often cited or discussed. But is there any quantitative research that account for the global factors on state performance? Is there any possible data source for measuring such global factors on states?
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try these:
The Annual Fragile States Index, the Fund for Peace, 2014: http://ffp.statesindex.org/
The Fund for Peace CAST Conflict Assessment Guide, CAST Conflict Assessment Manual, www.fundforpeace.org
Francis Fukuyama Failed States
David Reilly. "The Growing Importance of the Failing State: Sovereignty, Security, and the Return of Power," Journal of Conflict Studies, Vol. 23, Spring 2004.
David Reilly. "The Two-Level Game of Failing States: Internal and External Sources of State Failure", Journal of Conflict Studies, Vol. 28, p17, 2008.
Michael Hudson, Arab Politics: The Search for Legitimacy (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1977),
Benjamin Miller, "When and How Regions Become Peaceful: Potential Theoretical Pathways to Peace," The International Studies Review, Vol. 7, No. 2. (June 2005), pp. 229-267.
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I am intresting what is the current trend in the media which report it (especially iranian media), and how you see it. Is it possible to estimate how the failure of talks in november 2014 affected in the iranian public perception of this topic.
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Ordinary Iranians are not so optimistic about the intentions of the West side in the nuclear talks and there exists a dominant atmosphere of skepticism and mistrust among Iranians towards the West specially the U.S.
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In general, can the increased natural gas usage along with implementation of advanced technology for gas production slow the growth of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050?
Can natural gas be considered as an effective alternative to mitigate climate change?
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Natural gas usage is a big wildcard for climate change, in large part because of the increasing use of unconventional extraction methods like fracking, some of which are suspected to have considerably higher fugitive methane emissions than conventional extraction.  Because methane is such a potent greenhouse gas, a relatively small leakage rate (on the order of 3%) tips the balance against natural gas, making it actually more GHG-intensive than conventional coal [1].  3% leakage is within the range of uncertainty for published estimates of fugitive emissions from fracking [2]. Finally, the very high short-term (e.g. 20-year) warming potential of methane creates its own problems, because it may contribute to the escalation of feedback effects and move us more quickly to a tipping point [3].
In addition, to the extent that unconventional extraction lowers the price of natural gas, it could actually lead to an increase in consumption under the so-called "rebound effect," which erodes further the potential GHG benefits of natural gas [4].
In my opinion, calling natural gas a "transition fuel" from coal to renewables is a bit of a green-wash.  It may make US policymakers feel better, but it is unlikely to slow climate change without additional measures.
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The following factors had a strong influence on development of the competitive natural gas market: economic crisis an recession, Russia-Ukraine gas crises in 2008/2009 and 2014... as well as tight connection between oil and natural gas markets in determining natural gas prices. 
Previous low prices and possibility of natural gas supply from the abundant sources located relatively close to the consumption area are no longer available. Due to more difficult conditions in force during the last years, the security of natural gas supply has become the central issue of the energy politics ...
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Darko, I agree with your point of view that diversification of sources of supply is good alternative to reduce the EU dependency from the gas supply from Russia and the security of gas supply is the central issue of the EU energy politics
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At this point due to the problems in EU gas supplies (developments between Russia and Ukraine) and the fact that these developments enhance the orientation of EU countries on the increasing security of supply LNG again becomes one of the important factors. Specifically, three gas market (the EU market, North American and Far East) have totally different gas prices. For example, USA gas consumers pay about 25-30% of the EU price and the Far East pay about 9 times higher price than USA customers. American gas exports, after export terminals in the United States become operational, as well as after loosening export controls oil and gas from the time of "oil shock" in 1971), for which the price competitiveness of LNG, to me it would depend on the source of supply and changes in the global oil market and the three regional markets natural gas under the influence of new players in the market LNG. American LNG will be competitive to current suppliers to the EU, Australia have a cost advantage in the markets of the Far East, India, Japan. Some market analysis show that importing LNG from the USA could have a beneficial effect for importing  countries in EU and Asia. At the moment, Europe is buying the USA LNG on the old continent's spot markets, where the prices are hovering now in the range of 320-340 USD per 1000 m3 of liquefied natural gas, and the price past summer was even lower, around 240-270 USD.
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I agree with your point of view. Speaking of America’s shale gas, in my opinion, the first USA or Canada shale gas exports can reach EU not before two or three years from now.
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Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) is a relatively new entity that appeared in the post-Soviet region, which tries to join the neighboring countries into a strong and structured union. But what are its economic prospects and how are the newly established geostrategic conditions going to affect the balances of the region?
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OK, but as seen Russia will be the final winner of this "war game". So the result shall be that Russia will increase its power and influence over the EurAsEc countries .As a result the future seems optimistic.....
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Do you consider geopolitics as a part or related field of political geography, or perhaps a doctrine instead of scientific discipline?
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Since the days of Ratzel political geography is about the study of state. It varied from study of state as an organism to state as an area, to study of spatial political phenomena. Things changed when Peter J Taylor came who under the "world systems theory" changed the nature of political geography completely. Now state is viewed as an ideology and global economy as the reality (prior to Taylor, state acted as the ultimate reality in political geography). Although under globalisation, state is not same but analysis of political and economic phenomena (say impacts of neo-liberalism) is very much studied at the unit of state.
Geopolitics, on the other hand, as it came into existence in Germany was the study of space from the perspective of state. "Space" was focus. Now things have changed and we are talking about "critical geopolitics".
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I make research on the powers that control the international system, so I have some
data as to indicators of great forces such as military expenditure, GDP and number of films as indicators of cultural force.
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Dear Abdallah
Cultural indicators are tools that serve as reference for the understanding of phenomena that occur in the sphere of culture , allowing the concrete recognition and objective description of certain aspects of cultural experience , thus contributing to the expansion of knowledge about the topic .
An indicator is not a pure statistical but rather processed for the purpose of providing specific information
The indicators are not neutral ; depend on the context in which they are constructed and the purposes they serve
To be prepared , indicators need from a conceptualization of the phenomenon you want to quantify
In the case of the cultural sector , a particular challenge is there is no single understanding of what culture is , and there is no global models that can sustain a standardized system of cultural indicators .
Every system of cultural indicators is flawed because there is no way to express in statistics all experiences , practices , influences and impacts of culture
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The fifth summit of the BRICS, held in Durban last month, might go down in history as the birthplace of a multipolar world order in place of US “imperfect unipolarism.” In an interview to the ITAR-TASS news agency ahead of the summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin had already described the group as “a key element of the emerging multipolar world,” explaining that its members “advocate the creation of a more balanced and just system of global economic relations.” Although the decision to establish a BRICS-led development bank was certainly the brightest outcome of the summit, its main political note was the rise of Sinorussia as a new regional bloc decided to challenge the global status quo.
Beijing and Moscow are by far the geopolitically strongest powers of the club’s five members. With a combined population of almost one billion and half people over an area of 26,805,203 km2, equal to roughly 18% of the world’s land area, the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation form together a formidable regional actor capable of dominating Eurasia and projecting its influence over the entire globe. Hence the interest in improving bilateral relations already expressed before Durban by both Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, during this latter’s visit to Moscow as new head of state of the Asian giant. ...
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I agree with the above answers: the ability of a country to become a hegemon does not rest solely on material power. One also has to look at soft power and the ability to present oneself as a plausible alternative to other nations; to convince countries in strategically important regions to weaken their alliance with the West and turn towards Russia and China. A bank sounds like a good starting point, but more should be done, and implemented in an effective manner. In brief, whether countries can successfully change the status quo depends on the attitudes of weaker nations. to become a hegemon, one needs to be accepted as one.
Besides, the ability of these countries to cooperate should not be exaggerated. Russia and China are also rivals in many respects (like all great powers, they are competitors in terms of securing foreign (energy) markets). They are also not equally powerful, Russia's capabilities are often exaggerated; China leads the way and could well use it to demand more than it puts in. Thus, we should focus more on whether the relationship between these countries is strong enough to allow a powerful and long lasting alliance to emerge.
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Geopolitic
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The problem is that there is not "one" authoritative definition of Geopolitics. I wouldn't call electoral geography, or much of the statistical analysis which appear in journals such as "political geography" or "TESG" as geopolitics.