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Flood Risk - Science topic

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Geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI) is not just a tool but a potential revolution in geospatial data analysis. It is rapidly becoming a powerful force, providing unprecedented insights into complex environmental and societal challenges. From mapping and modeling land cover changes to mapping flood-risk areas, GeoAI is set to transform geospatial decision-making, harnessing the power of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) for more effective solutions.
GeoAI models can more efficiently analyze massive geospatial datasets such as high-resolution satellite imagery than traditional methods. This allows us to uncover patterns and trends that would be difficult to detect manually. It also helps automate complex tasks such as feature engineering and improve predictions. GeoAI is also valuable for solving real-world problems such as urban planning, forest conservation, disaster risk management, and climate change adaptation.
However, despite these benefits, GeoAI has its challenges. The complexity of ML and DL models often results in a lack of transparency due to their "black box" nature. This makes it difficult for users to trust the results. Data quality can significantly impact the performance of GeoAI models, leading to potential biases or inaccuracies in predictions. Furthermore, spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity are not readily incorporated into GeoAI, limiting its ability to capture the underlying spatial dynamics of geospatial data fully. Interpreting these results requires specialized knowledge, which may limit the accessibility of GeoAI for broader audiences.
Please share your experiences or thoughts on how we can effectively balance the benefits of GeoAI with the need for transparency and trust in geospatial data analysis.
Are you interested in learning more? You can download the ebook GeoAI Unveiled: Case Studies in Explainable GeoAI for Environmental Modeling here: https://aigeolabs.com/books/geoai/.
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You are welcome, Professor
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I am just trying to understand the impact of climate change in some regions in the world, as we know there are negative consequences on many parts of the world, as some regions will suffer excess floods and others will face deadly droughts. Upon these deliterious impacts, will there regions get benefits of the climate change? and why? I am zealously searching for answer of this question and I am happy to share this dicussion with you.
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Dear Doctor
"The science of climate change is well established:
  • Climate change is real and human activities are the main cause. (IPCC)
  • The concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere is directly linked to the average global temperature on Earth. (IPCC)
  • The concentration has been rising steadily, and mean global temperatures along with it, since the time of the Industrial Revolution. (IPCC)
  • The most abundant greenhouse gas, accounting for about two-thirds of greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), is largely the product of burning fossil fuels. (IPCC)
  • Methane, the primary component of natural gas, is responsible for more than 25 per cent of the warming we are experiencing today. It is a powerful pollutant with a global warming potential over 80 times greater than CO2 during the 20 years after it is released into the atmosphere. (Methane Emissions fact sheet, UNEP
What do we need to do to limit global warming and act on the climate emergency?
  • To prevent warming beyond 1.5°C, we need to reduce emissions by 7.6% every year from this year to 2030. (EGR, 2019)
  • 10 years ago, if countries had acted on this science, governments would have needed to reduce emissions by 3.3% each year. Every year we fail to act, the level of difficulty and cost to reduce emissions goes up. (EGR, 2019)
  • Deep reductions in methane will be necessary to help limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C, according to IPCC. Over 75 per cent of methane emissions could be mitigated with technology that exists today – and up to 40 per cent at no net cost according to the International Energy Agency. (Methane Emissions fact sheet, UNEP)
  • Conserving and restoring natural spaces, both on land and in the water, is essential for limiting carbon emissions providing one-third of the mitigation effort needed in the next decade. (Nature for Climate Action fact sheet, UNEP)
  • Since over half of global GDP has a high or moderately high dependency on nature, investing in nature-based solutions will not only limit global warming but also result in about 4 trillion dollars in revenue for businesses and over 100 million new jobs each year by 2030. (Nature for Climate Action fact sheet, UNEP)
  • For governments, a green COVID-19 recovery could cut 25 per cent off 2030 emissions, putting the world on track to a 2°C pathway. (EGR, 2020)
  • Nations agreed to a legally binding commitment in Paris to limit global temperature rise to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels but also offered national pledges to cut or curb their greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. This is known as the Paris Agreement. The initial pledges of 2015 are insufficient to meet the target, and governments are expected to review and increase these pledges as a key objective this year, 2021.
  • The updated Paris Agreement commitments will be reviewed at the climate change conference known as COP 26 in Glasgow, UK in November 2021. This conference will be the most important intergovernmental meeting on the climate crisis since the Paris agreement was passed in 2015.
  • The success or otherwise of this conference will have stark consequences for the world. If countries cannot agree on sufficient pledges, in another 5 years, the emissions reduction necessary will leap to a near-impossible 15.5% every year. The unlikelihood of achieving this far steeper rate of decarbonization means the world faces a global temperature increase that will rise above 1.5°C. Every fraction of additional warming above 1.5°C will bring worsening impacts, threatening lives, food sources, livelihoods and economies worldwide.
  • Countries are not on track to fulfill the promises they have made.
  • Increased commitments can take many forms but overall they must serve to shift countries and economies onto a path of decarbonization, setting targets for net-zero carbon, and timelines of how to reach that target, most typically through a rapid acceleration of energy sourced from renewables and rapid deceleration of fossil fuel dependency."
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Are disincentives the arche? How? Why?
My answer: Disincentives are highly probably the arche. How?: Any entity is more guided more by disincentives than by incentives. Why?: Disincentives may be the arche assuming the least but following the most evidence. Two other explanations for arches may be risks and or vibrations.
Source for vibrations:
Source for risks:
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Inhibitors generally have a negative effect, but few people take advantage of them for a new start
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Parts of East and Southern Africa, in particular, have experienced severe droughts, leading to water shortages, crop failures, and food insecurity. On the other hand, intense rainfall events have led to flooding in various regions, especially in low-lying areas and regions with poor drainage systems. What are the other threats and how those threats are related to nutrition security?
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Other adverse effects include an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, for instance, Cyclone Idai and Kenneth which devastated Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia and Madagascar. Duration and intensity of heat waves are also on the increase all over Africa, especially in the Sahel region.
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Dear scientists and researchers,
If you have any kind of experince or knowledge on flood risk mapping in urban areas (i.e., methodology, risk estimation, map preparation, etc), please kindly share your findings and knowledge.
Thank you in advance and looking forward to collaborating together.
Naser Dehghanian
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Greetings, Naser Dehghanian,
Indeed, flood risk mapping in urban and rural areas is feasible by integrating diverse data sources, innovative tools, and advanced techniques.
Several data sources such as topographic maps, hydrological models, rainfall data, land use and land cover data, and historical flood data can be used with remote sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and field observations to generate accurate and comprehensive flood risk maps.
Furthermore, community engagement and participation hold significant importance in flood risk mapping as local knowledge and expertise can offer valuable insights into a particular area's specific flood risks and vulnerabilities.
I recommend reviewing the literature to enhance your understanding and knowledge in this field. Numerous high-quality research papers provide insightful perspectives on urban flood risk mapping and assessment.
Please find below a selection of potential sources for your consideration:
Ali YOUNES,
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how to apply remote sensing and photogrammetry to solve flood problem in a society. or how to use remote sensing and photogrammetry to predict areas that will be likely for flooding
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Helpful to your analysis would be LiDAR coverage taken during low flow to obtain some channel morphology and as well as topographic detail. Dr. David Rosgen has developed a stream classification system that uses features as gradient, entrenchment, bankfull elevation (top of point bars that might be visible with LiDAR), braided vs non-braided channels, sinuosity, etc. The infrared aerial photos are often useful in separating upland and bottomland species if forested. The LiDAR very helpful in obtaining channel detail that is obscured by dense forest vegetation. Soil scientists familiar with mapping soil types on landscapes in your area would be helpful as they are used to reading landform, vegetation and hydrology indicators. But they too need experience and ground truthing (checking, transects, site visits, etc.).
As suggested by Dr. Klebs, securing available rainfall and stream/river data for your physiographic area(s), developing detailed DEM, classifying vegetation and channel types, Watershed sizes for areas of interest, land use practices, land cover types can also be helpful. Braided and highly sinuous streams almost always have significant flooding. Highly entrenched and high gradient streams tend to have no or narrow floodplain. If a flat area is adjacent to a stream or river, it could be floodplain, unless the channel is deeply entrenched, then it is likely a terrace (abandoned floodplain). Braided streams are typically a result of excess sediment loading, which fills channel capacity and aggrades channel, resulting in more frequent flooding and channel instability.
Due to the potential for land valuation and regulation, as well as human hazards, it may be best to have licensed engineer and appropriate agency review and approval before publishing results that potentially could have legal or human ramifications. If not, perhaps publishing as guideline or remote estimates needing field checking and verification would help limit liability for misinterpretation. Without LiDAR, there are certainly things one can obtain from aerial photos and photo pair interpretation, such as landform, vegetation type and some channel indicators perhaps. Soil maps if available typically separate out flood prone and hydric soils that would be useful information.
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Since June 33 millions of southern regional people those already put to trial, neglected and oppressed are under climatic attack, since June, flood hit them hard and it's not taken as seriously still.
Pakistan politically must be sanctioned per being black levelled.
On international level for the climatic catestrophy Pakistan administration why not pressured to take responsibility for those people?
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Respected Fatema Miah,
It is good to write on such important issues. Also keep an eye on your own country. If you want to write on Pakistan, you must read about Pakistan. And the most important, a writer must think positively and highlight positive aspects of an event and development.
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For my own research [1, 2], I follow the structural risk definition, which simplifies flood risk from a general definition to structural/functional quantities with clear limit state functions.
Eq. 1 (general): risk = probability x consequences
Eq. 2: (structural/functional): risk = failure probability x consequences
Now, in the international literature, the concept of residual risk is also found, e.g. in [3]. This appears in particular in the context of risk communication. In my opinion, both terms describe the same thing. Is that correct? Or do I just not know the difference? I think the term residual risk suggests that the risk can be reduced to zero. So I consider it not very desirable from a technical point of view. At the same time, I also see the difficulty of communicating the risk according to equation 1. What do you think? What experiences have you had?
Many greetings, Niklas
[1]
[2]
[3]
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I think that it is important that "residual flood risk" and "flood risk" are recognised as separate terms. Although they are both conceptually calculated using the same equation i.e. flood risk = probability of flood occurring x consequences, the processes used for estimating residual flood risk are different from calculating flood risk. Residual flood risk is not necessarily the same thing as "flood risk" and the term residual flood risk does add value because it takes into account all the ways in which flood defences can fail which a simple calculation of "flood risk" may not.
These paper will hopefully explain a bit more as to why residual flood risk is important as a concept:
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Wildfires have ravaged southwestern United States over the past 12-18 months. The impacts of these fires don't just end with the burnt watershed/areas. The altered soil properties in the watershed will create major hazards in a rainfall event that can impact essential infrastructure and stakeholders in the floodplains. Managers need to make efforts to identify risk zones and allocate resources to mitigate the potential impacts that follows a wildfire event.
Attached here my initial work in this area:
What impacts should one consider from a rainfall event that is preceded by a wildfire event! How can we allocate resources during a pandemic driven economic crunch. I would like hear some thoughts on this.
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Identifying the bioclimatic regime of the areas under threat to fires is one of the foremost requirements for an efficient forest fire management strategy. These days Google Earth Engine provides one of the fastest ways to prioritize vulnerable areas within the forests. Janaki Sandamali William F. Hansen and others have provided useful information regarding it.
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I'm part of a project creating a public atlas to document and map people's subjective experiences of extreme weather events. I've included information and a link to a short survey below. Feel free to fill this out yourself, and/or forward to your networks via email, social media, etc. Thanks!
Extreme Weather Events Survey
Ecologies of Harm: Mapping Contexts of Vulnerability in the Time of Covid-19 The University of British Columbia
This is a digital commons project intended to provide equitable access to knowledge.
COVID-19 presents the potential for people and groups to become exposed to harm in new ways. To see the overlapping ways in which these harms may be occurring, we’ve designed a survey for experiences of extreme weather events that are affecting people across the world.
This is a citizen / community observation survey, open to anyone 18 years of age and older who wishes to contribute. Your descriptions will upload directly to an interactive map of the world that is publicly accessible on this website: https://blogs.ubc.ca/ecologiesofharmproject
Your participation is entirely voluntary, and you do not have to answer every question. If you do wish to participate, you do not need to record your name. You may contribute as many observations as you like!
Please share widely, and keep in mind that re-posting, “liking,” or “following,” will be visible to others on public network platforms.
Link to survey: https://arcg.is/fvO4G0
Principal Investigator: Dr. Leslie Robertson
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Excellent! Thanks very much for contributing Christian.
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Hello,
I am working on bigger project. The project includes many subbasins that have to be considered. We are working each on one subbasin at the time. Input is effective precipitation.
Our simplified workflow with SI units is:
1. Modelling terrain (.tiff) Terrain with coordinate system
2. Subbasin border (.shp) 2D Flow area base cell spacing (bigger)
3. Hec ras mapper
3.1 2D FLOW areas edit add breaklines for roads, railways, riverbeds. Adjust cell spacing (smaller). Enforce breaklines.
3.2 2D FLOW Refinement regions
4. Adding unsteady flow data Precipitation, Normal Depth as downstream boundary.
5. Running model Unsteady flow analysis with computation settings
6. The »right/validate« result is calculated.
And now comes the error. After opening Hec ras mapper to view result we get notification of »Error in Loading Geometry data« The geometry section of 2D Flow Areas gets red dot. Breaklines, refinement regions, boundary condition lines are lost. On the left down corner we get the error “ Fail to Load. Start Editing to Recompute Mesh”. This error has begin to appeared after the half of basins were done. Now even the finished subbasin are getting the same error. Did anybody encounter similar problem? What am i doing wrong? Any help is appreciated.
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Hello, I have the same problem with HEC RAS ​​V6.0.0; Beta 6.0 did not have the problem but final version 6.0.0 has a lot of bugs. it looks like Ras Mapper is not related to HEC RAS ​​that means if you create your geometry on ras mapper and set your boundary condition HEC RAS ​​cannot detect them. even if you restart HEC RAS, they will disappear. Hope they will fix this problem as soon as possible .
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Dear all, I would like to invite you to fill out our web survey. Our research aims to assess the spatial distribution of flood risk and to determine flood-prone risk areas. The results will be used to determine weights of the seven flood conditioning factors. Thank you for your time! The survey link: https://bpmsg.com/ahp/ahp-hiergini.php?sc=Ejymyr
A. Please click on the link provided.
B. Please write your name and surname (or the name you will use) to participate in the survey, in the space under "Your Name".
C. Click on “Check input” at “AHP Session Input Menu”.
D. Then press the “Go” button indicated with a red frame.
E. On the open page, you are given information and explanations about the research subject. To fill in the questionnaire, press the button labeled "AHP" and marked with a red frame.
F. The questionnaire consists of 21 comparative questions. Select one of the 2 given criteria and then fill in the importance this criterion plays in flood risk assessment on a scale of 1-9. Scale equivalence is given below. If you think your decision is among the main values ​​given below, you can use the numbers (2), (4), (6), and (8).
(1)Equal Importance,
(3)Moderate importance,
(5)Strong importance,
(7)Very strong importance,
(9)Extreme importance,
(2, 4, 6, and 8 values in-between). 
G. After marking your answers, press the "Calculate" button and then click the "Submit" button outlined in red.
H. After you press the "Save Judgment" and "Done" button, your answers will be processed in the system.
Thanks for your time.
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Hasret Sahin - thank you for the clarification. It wasn't really clear from the instructions - some surveys highlight items that need to be filled in yet. I did see that the survey had been around for a while, so I won't argue with the intent. I do think that more information can often be gleaned when comparable questions indicate a possible misunderstanding or conflict in a respondent's answers than 'guiding' them to make changes. But, I'll leave it there.
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I asked recommended real-time or nearly real-time data source for any parameters for flood risk on a microscale analysis for urban area cases in developing countries that had agglomeration urban sprawl type
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Salim M. Zaki Thanks for the recommendation. I'll explore it
Wish you good health
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Hello,
I hope you have a good time.
I work on a research project about temperature indices. Due to the high number of indices, I only work on tables and maps on an annual time scale. In other words, I do most of my analysis for the annual time scale. Now I want to draw a box plot for studied indices. It should be noted that I have access to daily data. Do you think, for example, I should plot the average air temperature box plot using daily data or annual data?
Also in the case of precipitation, is the box plot better drawn from daily data or annual data?
I am waiting for your answer. Also, it would be great if you could introduce some reference.
Thanks in advance for your answer.
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I found the good reference for your problems:
Predictive skill of climate indices compared to mean quantities in seasonal forecasts
Jonas Bhend,* Irina Mahlstein and Mark A. Liniger
Thank you.
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I am looking for data set to develop a flood forecasting system specifically for an agriculture dominated watershed. The requirements include a) fine resolution DEM b) land use type and soil hydrologic group c) hourly/sub-hourly rainfall data for a minimum of 30 years d) hourly/sub-hourly stream flow data and e)demographic details of the area. It would be helpful if you suggest any data repository/experimental watershed for collecting the above mentioned data. I assure you that the services offered will be duly acknowledged.
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look for NASA aqua and terra
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I am interested in the best works on flood risk or floodplain mapping. The methods of flood mapping varies from country to country and even from province to province. I am interested in seeing some good reports that document exemplary studies.
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Dear Mr. Lumbroso - Thank you for your detailed feedback. I see that you have done substantial work in this area. After I have a chance to read this material, I may get back to the discussion.
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Dear researchers,
I am currently working on a methodology for risk-based design in the field of flood risk management. In order to compare my own ideas with existing regulations (regardless of the technical field of application), I would like to collect existing international regulations.
Therefore, if you know of any standards, technical bulletins and worksheets or guidelines on risk-based construction, please leave me a reference here.
Best,
Niklas
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Niklas Schwiersch , yes, guidelines like the CCPS (https://www.aiche.org/ccps) and OSHA (https://www.osha.gov/) or HSE (https://www.hse.gov.uk/pubns/ohindex.htm) define levels of risk quite explicitly. The real problem for any model (or standard) is that the ACCEPTABLE risk will necessarily be different for different people, organizations, or industries. A "Risk" (consequence vs. probability) can be defined fairly directly. BUT how that will influence a design (avoidance, prevention, mitigation, costs) remains a management decision. ONCE a decision has been made relative to risk acceptance, many standards exist to define how to meet the desired criteria, like SIS or building codes (ANSI, ASTM, others). Sometimes, industry or government REGULATIONS may define specific standards to use, but those regulations are not "standards".
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I see huge discrepancy between researchers (difference for the same class is somewhere up to 0.2). What determines the choice of the appropriate value ? What is the role of spatial resolution of the research in this ? Thank you.
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Manning's n or roughness coefficient is actually a measure of energy or head loss along a channel reach. The roughness of the channel, bank and floodplain is a major determinant of Manning's n. However, all mechanisms that contribute to energy loss should be considered in selecting its proper value. For example, flow velocity and associated turbulence are important (e.g., if velocity is near zero, the Manning's n will be zero even when the river has high roughness). Similarly flow depth is important. So is the season (e.g., more vegetation and thus higher roughness in summer).
I think engineers should think of Manning's n as more related to energy loss under specific flow conditions than to only roughness.
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Dear colleagues,
could somebody recommend publications dedicated to efforts and results on increasing the nesting success in waterbirds preferring low banks for breeding (waterfowl, gulls, waders, etc) in habitats being vulnerable of severe water table variation? I mean samples for constructing artificial islands/banks, floating islands, or artificial nests; attracting birds to safer but unusual habitats with sound playing and dummies; and any other measures... and their results. In other words, what was been made ny humans for more number of successful nests in such unstable circumstances, and how much effective were such efforts?
Results, which were published in journals or at Internet pages, are interesting. Of course, I'm most interesting in trials being successful, but unsuccessful trials add us some experience as well. Having already found few publications on this subject, I'd like to find more ones though.
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After exploring my dataset for Ph.D. thesis and learning several spatial econometric techniques, I successfully applied ordinary least squares (OLS), logistic regression, Spatial Autoregressive models [i.e., Spatial Lag model(SLM), Spatial Error Model(SEM), Spatial Durbin Model(SDM)], and most importantly Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression models to find evidence of spatial and socioeconomic inequality in flood risk. The performance of all regression models was significantly improved when I accounted for spatial heterogeneity at the local level compared to non-spatial global models such as OLS and logistic regression.
I am amazed that several research papers were published so far in high-rank journals based on global regression results only, which I could have done a couple of months ago. The results do not make sense because the nature of the spatial heterogeneity could prevail in flood exposure. In my view, flood exposure and/ effects of flood risk cannot be locally independent by census tracts or dissemination areas or census subdivisions; they must be spatially autocorrelated. There remain ripple effects, spillover effects or indirect effects to adjacent neighbourhoods and to the overall economy. Populations from affected or flooded neighbourhoods could move to nearby safer neighbourhoods, looking for jobs and safe accommodation. Many other indirect socio-demographic effects could prevail around the flooded neighbourhoods. Do you agree? Please, justify your response.
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GWR is a good method to take into account heterogeneity at the local level. I have used GWR quite a bit since it provides local regression coefficients. Try Geoda program also developed by Prof Anselin.
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I'm working on a project that relates flooding to adequate Drainage system.
The project is area based (NSUKKA, Enugu Nigeria). Nusuka could be seen to have the geological features as stated above
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Highland is an area of elevation as against low plains or lowland. They are not necessarily flood plains. Its surface (topsoil) or subsurface soil may have high infiltration tendency that is, low runoff coefficient which may reduce flood risk. It may as well consist impermeable (mountainous) surface with large runoff coefficient which will increase flood risk as well. Basically runoff coefficient factor is essential as it relates the amount of runoff to the amount of precipitation received. However, with topographical variation either with steep or gentle gradient the low plains will be susceptible to flooding if adequate storm water channels are not implemented.
Hence, conduct flood risk assessment as suggested by Bayan Hussien and then classify your study area. Source for contour map or generate a topo survey using GIS software.
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I need to model the joint dependency between storm surge and rainfall observations using the time-varying or Bayesian dynamic copula approach for the assessments of the coastal flood risk. Actually, in this research, we need to account the impact of sea-level rise (or SLR) due to global warming or climate change, over the joint dependence structure between storm surge and rainfall. Can I use SLR an explanatory covariate with the marginal distribution and copula dependence parameters using the above-mentioned bivariate framework? Is this research approach is feasible or significant?
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Consider whether you might decompose your sea-level data to separate the "shorter-term surge" (with hourly/daily type timescales), the tides (perhaps from predictions?), and the seasonal and longer-term sea-level changes. If that makes sense in your site, then you could model the relation of the 'shorter-term surge' on rainfall with a copula, free from issues of long-term sea-level rise. Then for applications you could combine the joint statistics of rainfall/short-term-surge with a longer-term sea-level rise component.
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I hope to conduct a series of interviews/questionnaire surveys to collect information regarding urban flood management and the use of software tools for the same.
Fundamentally, decision-makers, flood modellers, general public and software modellers/developers are in my expected audience.
Could you please suggest what personal information should be considered when weighing them?
My assumptions are as follow;
1. Decision Makers: The age, level of education, years of service, the level in the organization, no of participations/decision makings in actual flood management activities
2. Flood modellers: educational status (MSc/PhD etc), years of experience, no of participations/decision makings in actual flood management activities
3. Software developers: years of experience, no of contributions in actual flood management software development and the role he/she played
4. General Public: The Age, the level of flood-affected to the person, educational level, experience with floods
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I appreciate the request to comment, Rmm, but I don't think I know enough about your particular problem domain.
That's the thing about applying weights to survey respondents - making responses from one person, or a group of people, more important than those of another. You would do this if you have a legitimate reason to think that one group is severely under-represented in your sampling frame, or in your final sample. Or if you have a theoretical reason for giving greater value to the responses of some, and lesser value to others.
You need to have a theory, and/or good evidence, to support the use of weights in the first place and some ideas about how much those weights should apply.
Thinking about it some more, the purpose of your research is likely to be important too. If you're interested only in the value of real estate affected by floods then your weights may apply to the value associated with the people/organisations you survey. If you are interested in the effects on people's homes then you may minimise commercial real estate and apply weights based on the sizes of families.
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At present I am engaged in a project focusing on flood risk evaluation over India. I have all the inputs and sources of data for surface runoff. However, I have yet to find a reliable river discharge data. I will appreciate if some one can help me to find a reliable source.
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They have updated website, from where you can download data year-wise.
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In my optimization project, i am trying to minimize life-cycle costs of a road project by aligning the road in an optimum path. So as i mentioned in the question i need one or more formulas or methods giving floodplain conservation cost, average annual damage cost and etc, to use them in my objective function.
Thank you!
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The modern concept of flood risk assessment and management combined with uncertainty analysis includes new ideas and approaches to hydraulic and hydrologic modelling, model calibration and validation, as well as measures for flood mitigation and cost-effectiveness of these measures. During the last decades, a lot of new and more or less different methods, concepts, initiatives, approaches, organisations, papers have appeared at national and international levels. It seems that these valuable initiatives did not achieve the necessary goals. Definite conclusion about most of new methods, concepts, approaches, initiatives and organisations dealing with flood attenuation and river restoration or revitalization is that their good intention did not considerably improve flood management. Their costs are very high and the success is questionable.
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Construction of dykes is a straightforward solution. However, other than the cost, there are some problems associated with dykes. What will happen when the designed flood level (return period) is exceeded. We are maintaining a scheme with 10-yr protection and the dykes were over-topped several times. In each time, we had to cut open the dykes since evacuation (by pumping or gravity outlets) takes more time. Further, it is not suitable for tropical countries where the volume of water to be pumped is high and the cost is unbearable. There are many alternative methods for flood protection. Each method has its advantages and drawbacks. Selection of most appropriate method lies in the hands of experts. It is true that, there are occasions where 'nothing' is better than halfway solutions.
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I am working on flood risk on rivers. finding it hard to use LISFLOOD-FP. will be glad to have guidance.
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Hi,
Looking at the current situation of flooding around the world, what we should focus on in our researches in flood risk management? How can we mitigate the risk of flooding? What could be the research topics to work on for better flood risk mitigation/management and disaster risk reduction?
Thank you.
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The causes of flooding, relative environmental impacts, root causes and corrective measures are likely to vary among nations. However, it is important to identify the unique characteristics of the area of subject as they relate to flooding. With this, potent flood risk management actions could be taken.
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Dear all,
I want to assess flood risk or failure risk of dams under future climate change scenarios.
There are about 20 reservoirs in the basin. A hydrologcial model has been used to simulated the rainfall-runoff and routing process driven by GCMs, and reservoir operation from upstream to downstream have also been simulated. Now I have get output of daily inflow, discharege, and reservoir water level fore each reservoir (both future time slices and historical baseline).
How can I measure the flood risk or failure risk of dam (I mean the inflow that exceed the reservoir's storage)?
As the reservoir regulation model has constrained that the reservoir level should not be higher that the normal reservoir level, so I can not meaure it with threshold of reservoir level higher than the designed level of the reservoir. If I use the ‘failure probility’ of P=1-(1-1/T)n, it seems that the dynamic regulation of upstream reservoir is ignored.
So is there any other metrics or literatures I can referer to?
Many thanks.
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Dear Hsang
There are a number of ways in which dams fail. For earth embankment dams these can be broadly categorised as:
- Hydraulic (e.g. overtopping of the dam, wave erosion of the upstream face of the dam by wave action, erosion of downstream toe of the earth slope caused by misdirected spillway flows, gullying which can be caused by rainfall erosion of embankment slopes and also traffic)
- Seepage failures where fine soil material is eroded from the downstream slope or foundation and moves towards the upstream slope to form a “pipe” that can lead to the complete failure of the embankment. This is known as “piping” and is a common mode via which earth embankment dams fail
- Structural failures e.g. failure at spillways, abutments and foundations
- Other e.g. Tree growth and animals burrowing in earth dams can lead to failure
When assessing the probability of failure of a dam all the various modes should be considered.
Here is some work from a research project we did on dam break modelling see http://eprints.hrwallingford.co.uk/577/1/CADAM.pdf which also explains how to model dam failures and the causes.
We have also developed a number of software tools and methods to look at dam breaks see: http://www.hrwallingford.com/expertise/dams-and-reservoirs
To compute the probability of failure of your dams under climate change for a particular design return period (e.g. 1 in 100 year, 1 in 1,000 year of probable maximum flood) you need to:
1. Produce design hydrographs for the design return period and climate change scenario
2. Route the hydrograph through the reservoir
3. Assess the probability of the different modes of failure of the dam for each scenario.
I hope that this is of help.
Darren
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I am working on modelling the social dynamics and human responses during flash floods and forecasting the socio-economic impacts of flash floods.
Could you please share any relevant scientific papers/reports or any other related resources?
Thank you.
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The recent flash floods across Iran could damage a few hundred villages and cities across Iran. There are some hypotheses/topics to discuss in relevant to this phenomenon:
1) deviation of large scale jet streams from their previous paths. What are the role of two Polar Front Jet streams (PFJ) and Sub Tropical Jet streams, non-linear interaction across scales, atmospheric rivers, and blocking highs?
2) does the altitude of each major current affect the climate of the earth in the vicinity of the surface?
3) seasonal/monthly variation polar front jet surge because of gradients of temperature and pressure.
4) topography effects, for example, the Zagros mountains across the westerlies.
5) Are floods linked to deforestation, land coverage, soil type, and climate change because of global warming?
6) Which model is able to capture the crudest features of the environmental floods?
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Please have a look at this useful RG link.
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Flood Risk= f (hazard, vulnerability, exposure)
Climate Risk = f (hazard, vulnerability, exposure) ???
Typically, risk is a function of hazard, vulnerability and exposure. Change of vulnerability and/or exposure can modify the level of risk in a state where level of hazard is constant.
In general, the term climate risk mostly emphasizes climate change. To assess climate rick from climate change, we must consider vulnerability and exposure as constant. However, in the typical formula, we can have higher climate risk without any change in climate.
Looking for your kind participation 😊
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I am totally agree with you ( Richard Fielding ).
I am just curious to know, how others are thinking about Climate Risk. As a practitioner and researcher, when I do typical risk assessment, I never give extra attention to Hazard. Rather, i treat all parameters (hazard, vulnerability and exposure) equally.
However, when we talk Climate Risk, it seems that we are giving extraordinary focus on climate change. And sometimes intentionally or unintentionally we are blaming climate change for the ultimate risk.
As you mentioned "It depends what we mean by "Risk", we also need to make it clear what we a meaning by "Climate Risk".
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Do you have any studies backing up estimation of percent damages to structural components of residential houses or buildings in general?
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Must have field experience
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There are many GIS-based models which consider river flood risk zonation. However, most of them can't be successful implemented for torrential floods of small streams during and immediately after heavy rain. Do it is some good GIS tool, model or approach intended exactly for that - modelling (or hazard zonation) of areas under the threat of torrential flood?
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Please have a look at some interesting PDFs....
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Hello,
I am working on a project "Agent Based Modelling for Flood Risk Management under Different Climate Change Scenarios" and need some research papers or book chapters for literature review in similar fields.
It'd be greatly appreciated if you could provide any paper/chapter/link?
Thanks.
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Hi Javed! A recently published paper I've co-authored might be of interest:
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I'm currently trying to study the flash flood risks in an ungauged area. Is there a recommended way to calculate the daily accumulated rainfall data in a certain location using satellites like TRMM ?
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Hi Omar,
I would suggest looking at GPM data in addition to TRMM, GPM being a much newer product with a higher spatiotemporal resolution. NASA's Giovanni web portal (https://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/giovanni/) is a great resource to download information from both missions, since you can do it in gridded format or with post-processing that allow things like obtaining area-averaged time series.
Also, since you are interested in flash floods, aren't daily estimates too coarse for that purpose? TRMM has an hourly resolution product and GPM has one with a resolution of 30 minutes (also available from Giovanni).
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Dear Research Gate colleague,
Wika ristya is writing this message. I am 2nd year master student in Urban Engineering The University of Tokyo (Japan). Currently, I am conducting thesis research about Flood Risk Assessment Considering Climate Change. Regarding my research, I am facing difficulty to analyze flow routing using the Muskingum method. Does anyone here could give me suggestion to solve difficulty for my research? Thanks in advance
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May be I can help.
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Does anyone know about the difference between Topsis and Vikor method? I know these methods are different in normalized method. Unlike the Vikor method, Topsis examines both distances from negative and positive ideal choices. How can I find that the results of which method is corrected? I used these methods (Topsis and Vikor) for prioritization of my choices.
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1) Both of these methods belong to the same group of MADM methods, but they are based on different algorithms.
2) VIKOR as well as TOPSIS takes into consideration negative aspects of evaluation through R value (minimum individual regret) so this cannot be considered as difference.
But to answer (or not) to your question related to selection of more appropriate MADM method for problem solving. There is just no simple answer to that question, as it is raised so many times. You cannot say which method is better if they are yielding different results applied to the same problem, simply because you do not have a reference point for comparison of methods. The only thing that you can be sure about is that there are differences between methods. Generally speaking, the problem that you are solving is the one which will determine preferred method. In order to do so, you have to be familiar with different methods and their specificity.
So, I gave you a rather philosophic answer, certainly the one you did not hope for. But that is the reality.
Best luck in your work.
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In flood risk assessments, there is need for computing the consistency ratios in order to determine the random matrix
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Dear Francis
This is a concept in AHP (Analytical hierarchy process), and is defined as CR where CR = CI/RI.
You can see this subject in attached file (page 13).
Regrards
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Tyoes of floods,
floods occurence?
what is affected by floods?
how to implement GIS in the task?
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I forgot to mention, many low gradient rivers deposit a sand levee adjacent to channel.  Small tributaries sometimes lack sufficient power to join the river directly, and deposit their waters onto floodplain or terrace, increasing the local saturation and flooding frequency, even though severity is not necessarily an issue from the shallow flooding typical.  Sometimes these local areas have wetland features in moist climates.
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Most observation-based flood trend studies focus on floods that happen frequently (e.g. on an annual basis). Trends in bigger floods (e.g 1:50-year) are more difficult to study because time-series are often not long enough to quantify changes in these 'rare' events. To what degree do we understand if rare floods have been changing in the (recent) past?
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Thank you for sharing these recent papers Wouter. So, it seems we can conclude that there are not consistent trends of increasing flood magnitudes across the globe. In fact, climate oscillations like the NAO are stronger drivers of flood peaks than are any consistent long-term changes in climate. But what do we expect in the future? What advice can hydrologists offer to those who design bridges, culverts, and dams? I am still struggling with these questions. There seems to be a growing body of published literature that is finding that extreme precipitation does scale with temperature across the globe (perhaps with the exception of the tropics), indicating we should expect larger precipitation events as the global climate continues to warm. In fact, there is growing evidence that convective storms may scale at a greater rate, about 2X Clausius-Clapeyron. This increase in storms of small spatial extent does raise the question of whether the current network of river gages is of a sufficient enough density to detect a trend in floods at small spatial scales. Admittedly, precipitation does not equal discharge, but the patterns that are emerging suggest an increased risk of floods in the future.
Conrad Wasko has published on this topic, see these papers and others:
Also a recent paper on super Clausius scaling by Lenderdink:
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Any one who can help me on dam breach analysis and inundation map
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THANK YOU ALL
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The bedrock intensity was measured by variance of a stochastic process.
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Dear Prof. Domsta,
Thank you for your attention. 
I'm a newcomer and need to have the relationship between bedrock acceleration and it's distance to epicenter during earthquake.
If there's something not appropriate, I'm grateful to have your instruction.
Thank you professor!
Bowei
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We have river discharge data measured on a daily basis over 20 years and are looking for a way to split these data into two time-periods with similar "discharge behaviours". For example 1994-2002 could have a similar discharge behaviour to 2003-2014. Ultimately we are trying to test for differences in flood damages between two (to be determined) time-periods, holding discharge constant.
Does anyone (perhaps hydrologists?) have an idea how two time-periods with similar discharge could be identified? I've attached a plot showing the discharge levels and return periods (yellow: 1 year, red: 5-10 years) for the 20 years. I guess this is a tricky one but I hope there is an answer to it. 
Thanks for your help!
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You might check out the software program "Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration" - developed by the Nature Conservancy. 
I am positive there are tools in that package for comparing flows between two different time periods, but I am not sure if there is a tool for identification of separate/similar regimes or periods. If not perhaps you could use one of the techniques described above to identify the periods or hydrologic difference or similarity, and then use the IHA software (or analogue in R) to quantify hydrologic variations between periods in more detail. Worth investigating perhaps.
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Let me define the river boundary as the line usually along the river course, which has clearly distinguished the river area and the others. I assume that the river area is the non-usable area because of the high flood risk and inappropriate for people’s living. I learned river engineering in Japan. In the case of Japan, the river boundary has been designated by law and managed by the authority since 100 year ago, aiming at promoting the flood control works smoothly resulting into damage reduction. Due to the topographical condition in Japan, the river boundary is almost same as the existing dike alignment. So for Japanese people, the river boundary is quite clear because of the existence of the dike system which have been made mostly empirically in over one hundred years.
When I visit other countries for some flood risk management work, I recognize some of them are facing or in the process of solving the issue how to manage the riverine area which is flood-prone without dike, and how to define the river area as high risk area. Very often they have some laws, originating a kind of riparian law, which defines an easement from the river bank or normal water line as a constant distance such as 20m. But I see an argument if such constant easement is applied to the riverine area land use plan, the flood risk along the river is quite different from local people’s experience.
Japan learned such constant easement several decades ago from Europe, but since then Japan has already constructed dike along the river channel and managed the river area together with such dike, such argument on the constant easement is no longer discussed.
If you know some country / area who has the defined river boundary for the purposes of land use and/or river management, please share any information on the definition and the methodology to define empirically or theoretically.
Thank you very much.
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Dear Kazunori
I will give a partial answer explaining the situation in two Australian States.
Land law in the six Australian States follows a similar pattern but there are unique characteristics in each. From earliest European settlement (began in 1788, but accelerated in the second half of the 1800s) the concern about river boundaries was not so much flooding, but first to protect rivers from pollution and riverbanks from degradation by grazing stock; and second, to allow general public access - for public purposes and also for travelling stock purposes in the sparsely populated inland. (Remember that most of Australia is dry and except in the coastal rivers, water is precious). For these reasons land was often reserved along rivers to ensure that the neighbouring landowners did  not exclude the public.
For example, in 1881, the State of Victoria reserved a land frontage of usually 1 chain (about 20m) along most named creeks and rivers from alienation (that is, sale from the State). While frequently leased back to adjoining landowners (to avoid costs of fencing), they remain State land.
In the State of Queensland, with much larger distances and much larger landholdings (commonly thousands or tens of thousands of hectares, reservation of a frontage was less common. However in the early 1900s, legislation was passed to compulsorily acquire (expropriate) the bed and banks of boundary watercourses (forming the boundary between two titles), without compensation. Since then there has been much controversy within the surveying profession about what "bed and banks" means. Some hold that it always meant the "high bank", the top of the topographical feature containing the river; others hold that it meant only the land covered by ordinary winter flow. An aberrant court case (Kedron Brook) complicated matters. The Government delayed for many years the amending legislation to make the situation clear.
The issues are explained in two departmental guidelines, attached. Please note first that although authoritative at the time, these were only ever internal working documents and never officially published by the Department; and second they are now old and superseded and cannot be relied upon as a guide to current legislation.
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Am working on flood risk assessment using GIS and DEM in an urban area, i want to know some key things that i should consider in my studies...for instance if there is any important tool to run in ArcGis that can help in my work.
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Hi Ben,
One of the very important things to consider - you may like to refer to my publications on this topic - is DEM elevation accuracy. Accuracies are often not at all as good as may be suggested by quoted accuracy statistics from DEM providers. This is the case for more or less all sources of DEM data. This will impact on your flood prediction results. However, you can minimise this effect (before you get to doing anything in ArcGIS) by choosing the most suitable DEM for your given location if this is possible.
Each source of DEM data (LiDAR, SAR, airborne or UAV photogrammetry or ground based methods such as TLS and GPS) all have their strengths and weaknesses. LiDAR for example often works exceptionally well in paved areas, but less well in vegetated areas - even last returns data, which can retain a residual vegetation component. SAR tends to work poorly in urban areas, and can work comparably better in vegetated areas. All methods of DEM acquisition have their own shortcomings. Knowing a bit about the data you intend to use will help to give you a clear picture of locations where your DEM may perform well, or not so well.
It may sound a bit OTT o tlak about accuracy. However, if your DEM records elevation at 1m of elevation, and if the slope in your flood prone area is 1:100 for example, this might result in a 100m horizontal mis-classification of flood risk.
If you are working with irregularly spaced sampling data, or low resolution ground sampling data then the interpolation method that you apply will be important too. Some interpolation methods introduce a lot of error. In terms of ArcGIS, if you have access to Geostatistical Analyst, that offers a good toolset to help you to optimise the interpolation to minimise inaccuracies in your flood prediction model, particularly using Universal Kriging.
Other things to consider... Take care (whether in ArcGIS or elsewhere) when transforming between orthometric heights, ellipsoidal heights, elevation units etc when you are integrating flood gauge data, DEMs, and other sources of elevation data.
I hope this helps...
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altinerker
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It is not uncommon for 60-90% percent of rainfall to be absorbed into soil with grass or forest cover, avoiding substantial direct runoff.  Imperveous surfaces are almost all runoff, very little infiltration.  Urban stormwater can become a major issue to deal with, and an area of study over the last few decades.
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Opinion leaders can be used in information dissemination in remote communities. I would like to find out the areas they have been used and with what success.
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Thank you. Will have a look at these.
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While crop damage assessment is done for Rice, How much it is important to consider the growing stages. Is there any particular study on this issue, please refer to me. Thanks in an advance.
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How can a remote sensing out put of aspects of flood (mentioned below))be taken to the understanding of the general public, in order to maximize the safety , educate and precautions in a disaster?
Mapping flood-prone areas,delineating flood-plains,land-use mapping,Flood detection,early warning,rainfall mapping,Flood mapping,evacuation planning,Damage assessment
please feel free to add your comment suggestions.
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Mohomed,
indeed, you are describing a tricky aspect of science - perfect knowledge (by scientists or decision  makers) alone is not enough. There are typically 3 types of stakeholders here, and all need to be involved and play their part well for things to improve: scientists need to develop solid understanding of a problem, e.g., flooding, but then also need to communicate this appropriately to decision makers. That means first of all they need to find adequate ways to communicate complex issues, ideally by working with those decision makers from the very beginning to make sure it's clear what those decision makers need and what they understand (and what they don't understand). Only then are those decision makers able to make decisions and also communicate them to the public. In my view it's the decision makers that should be responsible for the bulk of the communication with the people, although scientists themselves can play a useful role, by going into schools, writing for newspapers or non-scientific publications, etc. Still the hard part is to translate flood properties into understandable and meaningful language. A typical people living in a flood-prone area will not understand return periods, flood probabilities, measures of uncertainty in predictions, etc. Even understanding simple parameters such as flood depth,ad n relating them to their own personal circumstances will be challenging for most people. One useful way can thus be to associate scientific information such as a flood depth/duration/energy map with clear, representative illustrations of the effects of such an expected/possible event (a house flooded to 1 m, 2 m, or more, crops of type x being flooded by a few cm vs. 1 m, or for a day vs for a  month, or by a  ' slow flood' vs a flash flood. People respond to visual cues, and to things they are familiar with. Involving people from the communities in selecting or designing such effective illustrations will also be helpful.
Regards, Norman
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I'm analysing flood in a climate change scenario. I extract maps of floods after their occurrence from satellite images and I would like to relate them to different future climate scenarios in order to assess the change in flood risk.  
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Thanks Kleomenis, I will definitely try what you suggest!
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Models use data to predict weather patterns and floods. Is their a need within the UK to increase rain gauge spacial resolution to 0.5km and a temporal resolution to 1 minute for more accurate and reliable flood predictions? Does soil moisture content need to be monitored?
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Predicting rain and runoff, flooding is largely based on limited records, and in many instances you are not going everything you want.  Models will typically use all the data you can muster, and be wanting for more.  You need a combination of recording rain guage stations preferred and recording stream gauges and have an absolute minimum of 10 years record for any predictive capability or comparisons with the old data stations, however even 100 years is probably not enough for some things.  Consider the rainfall event we had in October near Charleston, SC.  Using the available data, we had the 1000 year event on the national forest, but as soon as we insert this data into the total and recalibrate, perhaps it may be the 500 year event.  Weather specialists do a reasonable good job now with their data and tools for predicting weather within the next few days, weeks or maybe as far as months, that is pushing it.  However, the predictive tools rely on spatial data, and a lot of it.  In areas with a lot of topographical relief, adding more rainguages can help coverage of individual storms or help locate areas that then to get more rain, but they are not necessarily going to improve prediction but may help with years of data.  Weather patterns shift, the jet stream shifts, you can have wet years, dry years, and individual event severity is dependent on a lot more than a truck load of data.  It is best to model and predict as best as we can, but identify the uncertainty and build infrastructure, homes, etc. accordingly.  If you are in the floodplain, elevate your structure above the 100 year or more elevation, and such as put your garage on the lower level and accept your car may or may not be flooded in your lifetime.  Most people don't have the information at all so that they can consider it as an option. 
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As in Italy we have not developed  national depth-damage curves, it is necessary the use of curves developed in other contexts, for a flood risk analysis.
For my work I chose the Atlas Rhine curve but, maybe, there's a problem: this is based on land use maps, i.e. for mesoscale analysis, while my work is on a microscale analysis.
it is permissible to do so with the appropriate considerations?
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From what I know the FLEMO uses discrete values up to 6-7 meters, while the curve that interests me should go up to values of 9-10 meters.
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I want to know whether there is a correlation between Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice on Flood Risk, Council Efforts and Messages to socio-demographics of the residents of the community. I have already made a questionnaire. What is the best statistical analysis to use? Currently looking at Chi-square analysis and Spearman.
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Dear Randolph
The KAP study should generally invite a large set of variables ranging from Ordinal to ratio scale; discrete to continuous data and dependent and independent nature. 
For the dependent vs independent issues, the best way will be use of regression (logistic regression).
If you wish to study the association of a response for two factors at different levels, chi-square may provide solution.
For linear relationship between two interdependent variables, you may use spear man correlation coefficient (for discrete data).
I would suggest you to evaluate each and every variables and also hypothesized the relationship between/among variables.
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Any suggestions with what communication theories to use on a reception analysis study of flood risk messages by a government council? I am also looking at the messages receivers' Knowledge, Attitude and Practice (with regards to their socio-demographics), on their motivations on acting upon the flood risk messages (i.e. preparation, evacuation). Thanks!
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Hi Randolph
The theory of planned behaviour may be useful to you. It is a well used theory and information inputs to the model should be well studied as well. 
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I Want to map flood extent using Machine leaning (DEcision tree) technique in ENVi. However, i'm not sure what parameters in the SAR image to define as the rule for initial classificstion.
For example if i was using Landsat or SPOT MS images i could define indexes such as NDWI or some band ration and set a rule.
Other data i intend to include are:
DEM (Elevation), Slope and Aspect
Land cover/use
Hydrology: Distance from river
If someone can help draft a decision tree based on these informationand explain the reason, i would appreciate that.
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kindly find attachment pdf, it will help full fore u 
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Are there any known studies on flood risk perception and disaster preparedness in Nigeria or any other West African Countries?
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Hi there,
as far as I know studies from Africa are pretty rare in flood research. by a fast check I have found a couple of articles that may lead you further:
Perhaps you may also be interested in flood risk perception & preparedness studies from Asian countries (I would advise to look at numerous studies from the region, including Bangladesh, Vietnam, Jakarta and others)
See also a Primer on Disaster Risk Management in Asia: http://www.adpc.net/udrm/primer/pdf/primer_volume1.pdf
another document (looks like part two of the previous one) is entitled  a Primer on Integrated Flood Risk Management in Asia (pdf to be found via google).
I hope that helps.
Cheers, Marija
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Neighborhood patterns play an important role in alleviating flood risk. What is your opinion about that?
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Dear Abdulatheem, thanks for your question. Actually you should try to avoid building in risk areas, because even using building materials which are more resistant to floods, when they are very serious, no matter what sort of material you use, they might be damaged by a heavy flood. Therefore, the best way is to avoid risky areas, where floods occur frequently. In Brazil, according to our environmental legislation one can not build close to a river and the minimum distance to the river bank is 30 metres.
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Land use / cover change and climate change has a vital role in surface runoff decrease or increase, can anybody help me out with the major steps required for the same in mountainous areas. Thanks
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The SCS-CN methodology is widely used. As previous collegues wrote you need the following:
- soil hydrological groups
- land use categories
- tables with CN values (available e.g. in the works of Chow VT (1964) Handbook of Applied Hydrology. McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York or Urban Hydrology for Small Watersheds (TR-55). Natural Resources Conservation Service, Washington)
- define designed rainfall or measured rainfall
- define Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC) 5 days prior to designed rainfall or measured rainfall and modify CN values according to AMC I, II or III
- use e.g. ArcGIS and HEC-GeoHMS extension to create CN-grid
- them you can create rasters of potential retention, surface runoff depth, contributing areas, surface runoff volume, etc. according to the formulas presented e.g. in the cited works
- compare the results for different time horizons with relevant land use
- you can quantify changes using map algebra in ArcGIS
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My research is on coincident flooding using joint probability method but I have limited background knowledge of joint probability. I an expecting a sample of calculations.
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see this paper of a colleague of mine. It may help, 
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fragility curves for flood risk assessment
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In general, fragility curve is plotted probability of certain damage state of an or a group of Element of Risk Vs hazard intensity. In case of flood as you want to know, assume a town near the flood plain which has a probability of damage (buildings) is 50% for a 2 meter depth flood (you can also consider velocity as a flood hazard intensity, or depth+velocity+duration of flood). You can easily plot fragility curve. You can also consider absolute damage cost as a probability of damage state.
visit following web pages or simply google for further reading. I hope this will help you.
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I am interested to use radar data for hydrological model.
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yes
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Dear Sirs/Madams,
I want to produce an hydrologically corrected raster surface for hydrological modelling (to define flow accumulation, basin limit, stream network, etc.), with the final objective of classifying the stream network according to the flow generated upstream it. The European Environment Agency has the EU-DEM (http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/eu-dem) with "elevations captured (...) every 30 meters" and described as follows:
"The Digital Elevation Model over Europe from the GMES RDA project (EU-DEM) is a Digital Surface Model (DSM) representing the first surface as illuminated by the sensors. The EU-DEM dataset is a realisation of the Copernicus programme, managed by the European Commission, DG Enterprise and Industry."
I'd like to ask your opinion about this possibility. And what alternatives with a similar resolution are freely available that cover Europe?
Thanks, kind regards,
Pedro
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is known that low-resolution DEM produce artefacts and reduce the slopes in DEM's.... you can try using Tandem-X topography..., all Europe is covered
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There is a growing need for the evaluation, assessment, or even measurment of urban resilience. In contrast to the complexity of urban processes, the physical layout of cities (that is, patterns in this case) may, to a certain extent, be measured easier. Therefore a morphological approach to urban resilience may contribute to the development and improvement of resilience assessment tools. Did anyone find spatial indicators that may be directly related to resilience? Are there any morphological studies or tools that explicitly refer to resilience?
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Dear Claudiu ,
As indicators I emphasize the relationships:
- economic development vs. pollution;
- social housing vs. property speculation;
-demographic growth vs. health and education
Some studies in Brazil (in portuguese):
Urban and commercial resilience in central areas:
Resilience of urban systems:
Urban sustainability indicators for urban resilience:
Building resilient cities:
I hope it helps.
Best Regards,
Vanessa
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Today, the Peta-Jakarta project was launched at the SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong, in the presence of Wollongong's Lord Mayor, Mr Gordon Bradbery AOM, Mr Ryan Park MP, Member for Keira, Mr Hanggiro Setiabudi, Counsellor at the Embassy of the Republic of Indonesia, Dr Endang Entam, Head of the Division at BPDB-Jakarta, Prof Judy Raper, UOW's DVC-Research, and Prof Chris Cook, Executive Dean, Faculty of Engineering and Information Science.
To know more, follow the link!
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The book Visualizing the Data City by Paolo Ciuccarelli,Giorgia Lupi,
and Luca Simeone may guide you in this regard. Here's the ISBN: 978-3-319-02194-2.
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I'm working on an article regarding hydrological predictability ways using time series data (maximum flow, minimum flow , levels). My working method is based mainly on fractal analysis. The case study is conducted on the Romanian Danube on analysis of developing flood waves, floods.
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I consider it necessary analyze the relationship of the parameters of rainfall and snowmelt with those of flow. In the analysis of the parameters, other statistical flow models and programs have to be considered. It is also important the calibration and sensitivity analysis. The quality of numerical and statistical model depends on the maturity of the conceptual model. You will find free flow models in the website of Valencia University in Spain and also in the website of the US Army.