Financial Crisis - Science topic

The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 was the result of a number of factors that started as early as the 1990s and were then compounded at the beginning of the 21st century. Many mistakes were made at the time, both at the level of monetary policy, in terms of over-liberalisation of the functioning of financial markets and banking entities (in the mid-1990s, the separation of the functioning of deposit and loan banking from investment banking was abolished). Allowed to grant mortgages to uncreditworthy citizens. The missing funds for granting bad loans, i.e. loans that in 99 per cent probability would not be repaid on time, were no longer obtained from bank deposits but from derivative securities issued for this purpose, which were sold as subprime bonds to successive investment banks as secure and profitable investment financial instruments. Credit rating agencies gave these credit derivatives the highest AAA ratings, which just before the onset of the global financial crisis was no longer factually correct and was a clear example of a breach of good business ethics. There was also a high level of systemic credit risk arising from the underwriting of many of the thus unreliable mortgages by a small number of commercially operating insurance companies. There has been a lot of unreliability, the application of unethical business practices in credit risk management both at a systemic level and at the level of individual banking entities. The credit risk management process in investment banks at the beginning of the 21st century was not working efficiently and effectively. The banking procedures were not adequately adapted to the current realities of the technological advances taking place and new financial instruments, derivatives being created in a highly liberalised prudential standard of credit risk control. I have researched this issue and described these issues in publications that are posted on my profile on this Research Gate portal. I had researched the issue of improving the credit risk management processes carried out in commercial banks even before the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Some procedural and normative issues have been corrected but rather not all, which should be corrected so that a similar financial crisis does not occur again in the future.

In view of the above, I address the following research question to the esteemed community of researchers and academics:

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please reply,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

Analysis of the effects of post-2008 anti-crisis mild monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

Synergy of post-2008 Anti-Crisis Policy of the Mild Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

ACTIVATING INTERVENTIONIST MONETARY POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SECURITY OF THE EUROPEAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dear Researchers, Scientists, Friends,

Financial markets operate in a dynamic and complex environment in which both government regulation and self-regulation mechanisms play a key role. Countries introduce regulations on the functioning of banks, stock exchanges and investment funds, but some theories suggest that over-regulation can undermine the innovation and efficiency of financial markets. On the other hand, self-regulatory mechanisms, e.g. clearing institutions and liquidity rules, can stabilise markets, but without state supervision, there is a risk of abuse and speculation. For the purposes of this discussion, I have formulated the following research thesis: state regulation is crucial for the stability of financial markets, but excessive intervention can lead to a reduction in their effectiveness and innovation. Accordingly, this is a fundamental question of economic policy and financial stability affecting global capital markets. This problem can be analysed in the context of various financial crises, e.g. the 2008 crisis, where the lack of regulation of the derivatives market led to disastrous consequences. At the same time, research on economies with varying degrees of regulation can indicate which combination of state intervention and self-regulatory mechanisms provides the best market stability.

My articles below are related to the above issues in some aspects:

I have described the key aspects of the monetary policy pursued by central banks in recent years in the following article:

I have described the issue of economic globalisation as a significant factor in the systemic transformation of banking in Poland in the following article:

I described crisis management in a company in the article:

CRISES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF BUSINESS ENTITIES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT

I have described the key issues of anti-crisis state intervention in my article below:

And what do you think about this?

What is your opinion on this matter?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

I am looking for the source (online) of these indicators, like St. Louis FED & Kansas FED, with complex & mixed data from macroeconomy and finance.

I am interested particularly to Fin. Stress Indicators of the main commercial banks.

The purpose is to study the financial ecosystem of Quantitative Easing effects.

QE that appear as a new type of (global) strategic & systemic weapon e not only a complex set of economic measures.

.

.

-- Was the decision of Swiss National Bank on Euro/SwissFranc (€/CHF) rational or panic-like? .. https://www.researchgate.net/post/Was_the_decision_of_Swiss_National_Bank_on_Euro_SwissFranc_CHF_rational_or_panic-like

-- What was the real effect of the US Quantitative Easing (QE), on the value of the US dollar, Gold, BitCoin and Yuan-Renminbi crosses? .. https://www.researchgate.net/post/What_was_the_real_effect_of_the_US_Quantitative_Easing_QE_on_the_value_of_the_US_dollar_Gold_BitCoin_and_Yuan-Renminbi_crosses

-- There is a relation between Quantitative Easing (QE) and the recent systemic selloff? .. https://www.researchgate.net/post/There_is_a_relation_between_Quantitative_Easing_QE_and_the_recent_systemic_selloff

-- The Quantitative Easing (QE) Financial Ecosystem has Affected the OIL Price Evolutions in this Decade? .. https://www.researchgate.net/post/The_Quantitative_Easing_QE_Financial_Ecosystem_has_Affected_the_OIL_Price_Evolutions_in_this_Decade

-- Why BitCoin was born (searching for socio-financial causes)? .. https://www.researchgate.net/post/Why_BitCoin_was_born_searching_for_socio-financial_causes

.

.

The question is about the causes of economic crises. On the one hand, inappropriate fiscal policy (e.g. excessive government spending or insufficient investment in key sectors of the economy) can lead to a crisis, while on the other hand, mismanagement of public debt can cause a loss of confidence in the economy and its collapse. Research shows that an economic crisis is not only the result of inadequate fiscal policy, but also of an uncontrolled increase in public debt, which leads to a loss of confidence among investors and citizens, which in turn triggers a recession. In line with the above, many economic crises in history have been caused by both fiscal policy errors and an uncontrolled increase in public debt. On the one hand, excessive spending policies can lead to inflation and an uncontrolled increase in the budget deficit, which reduces the room for manoeuvre in crisis situations. On the other hand, excessive debt can lead to a loss of confidence in the stability of public finances, resulting in capital outflows, increased debt servicing costs and recession. Ultimately, economic crises are often the result of the complex interaction of these two factors, and understanding their interdependencies is key to preventing future crises.

I have described the key issues of the exceptionally deep energy crisis in Poland in 2022 in my co-authored article below:

POLAND'S 2022 ENERGY CRISIS AS A RESULT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND YEARS OF NEGLECT TO CARRY OUT A GREEN TRANSFORMATION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR

I have described crisis management in companies in the article:

CRISES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF BUSINESS ENTITIES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT

I have described the key issues of anti-crisis state intervention in my article below:

Anti-crisis state intervention and created in media images of global financial crisis

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please reply,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dear Researchers, Scientists, Friends,

During economic crises, governments face a dilemma: should their economic policies focus on stimulating domestic demand by increasing public spending and social transfers, or should they prioritise the stabilisation and development of the production sector to ensure long-term economic growth? Each of these options has its advantages and disadvantages, making the question difficult to answer unequivocally. Research shows that stimulating internal demand will be more effective in the short term in combating economic crises, but may lead to long-term inflationary problems. On the other hand, there may be a situation in which a focus on stabilising the production sector in the long term contributes to more sustainable economic growth, but may require more costly and time-consuming measures. Accordingly, economic policy in response to economic crises must take into account a number of factors, including the dynamics of inflation, employment, production, but also the specific conditions of the national economy. In the face of financial crises, demand-stimulating solutions are often chosen, such as tax cuts or increased public spending, which can immediately improve the situation of consumers and businesses. However, such solutions can also lead to long-term inflation, which is not a sustainable solution in the medium term. On the other hand, stabilising the production sector – through investment in innovation or support for key industries – may be more effective in terms of long-term growth, but it requires long-term planning and greater financial outlay, which can be difficult to obtain in times of crisis. The choice between these options involves balancing the need for short-term economic stabilisation with the need for sustainable growth.

In the following article, I have written about the sources of the high inflation that has occurred since 2021 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, based on research that I have conducted:

THE POST-COVID RISE IN INFLATION: COINCIDENCE OR THE RESULT OF MISGUIDED, EXCESSIVELY INTERVENTIONIST AND MONETARIST ECONOMIC POLICIES

I have described the key issues concerning the sources of the exceptionally deep energy crisis in Poland in 2022 in my co-authored article below:

POLAND'S 2022 ENERGY CRISIS AS A RESULT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND YEARS OF NEGLECT TO CARRY OUT A GREEN TRANSFORMATION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR

I have described the key issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets in my article below:

IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY

I have described the key issues of the exceptionally deep energy crisis in Poland in 2022 in my co-authored article below:

POLAND'S 2022 ENERGY CRISIS AS A RESULT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND YEARS OF NEGLECT TO CARRY OUT A GREEN TRANSFORMATION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR

I have described crisis management in companies in the article:

CRISES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF BUSINESS ENTITIES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT

I have described the key issues of anti-crisis state intervention in my article below:

Anti-crisis state intervention and created in media images of global financial crisis

I have described the key aspects of the monetary policy pursued by central banks in recent years in the following article:

Comparisons of the monetary policy of the central banks of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please reply,

I invite everyone to the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

I invite you to scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

In a situation of double-digit and rising inflation, should the central bank continue to tighten monetary policy (raise interest rates) and the government also tighten fiscal policy (e.g. raise taxes and reduce non-investment spending) or should these policies be pursued differently?

Should both policies, i.e. monetary and fiscal, be conducted in a coordinated and targeted manner with the same objective, i.e. should they be focused on trying to reduce the level of inflation?

Does it make sense if, in such a situation, the central bank tightens monetary policy (raises interest rates) and the government eases fiscal policy (e.g. offers citizens further subsidies, grants, allowances, compensation, additional pensions by increasing the debt of the state finance system and/or by printing domestic money)?

I ask because this is the situation as of October 2021, in the country in which I operate. This is most likely due to the fact that the next general election is due to take place in a year's time and the current government is acting extremely populist.

What is your opinion on this?

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please reply,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

Greetings,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

7.9.2023 the central bank in Poland, i.e. the National Bank of Poland, despite the fact that still, despite the end of the Covid-19 pandemic more than a year ago, large amounts of additional money are being injected extra-budgetarily into the economy as part of the pre-election government social programs, inflation is still over 10 percent, average wage growth is over 10 percent, the rate of economic growth shows no signs of economic recession, the debt level of the state's public finance system is growing rapidly, oproc. of bank deposits is at a low level that does not even compensate for the level of loss of purchasing power of money, the cost of servicing the public debt is growing rapidly, the national currency is weakening reduced interest rates. by 0.75 percent. Most financial analysts, even taking into account political factors in addition to economic factors, were forecasting a reduction of these interest rates by 0.25 percent, not by 0.75 percent. Besides, this was also based on what the president of the National Bank of Poland said and declared at previous press conferences. Financial analysts economists have already become accustomed to the fact that the declarations made at press conferences by the president of this central bank are determined mainly by political factors, often diverge from the facts, contain inconsistencies with objectively conducted analyses of the macroeconomic state of the economy, and so on. The key issue is that the next parliamentary elections in Poland are scheduled for 15.10.2023. The monetary policy pursued by the central bank in Poland in recent years clearly confirms the thesis of strong informal ties between this policy and the government's economic policy. The covid and postcovid monetary policy pursued since 2020 first contributed to inflation from 2021 due to the strong easing of this policy, and then when it was tightened from October 2021 it acted mainly anti-conjunctural instead of anti-inflationary. The anti-conjunctural effect of the previously tightened monetary policy in Poland was mainly due to the fact that commercial banks operating in Poland for many years have been granting long-term mortgages and business loans at variable interest rates for more than 95 percent of the time. This is a kind of evanescence of banking in Poland compared to other developed countries. Oddly, the forecasting analyses developed at the central bank before the earlier monetary tightening apparently did not fully take into account this important economic factor. This is yet another point supporting the thesis that a highly politicized monetary policy is being pursued in Poland. This then raises the following question: won't a monetary policy conducted in this way, in which economic factors are less important than political factors, soon cause mistakes to be made again when conducting this policy and lead to another crisis in the economy? I, on the subject of monetary policy and its role in the issue of systemic credit risk management and in the context of the emergence of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, conducted research, the results of which I have published in several scientific articles. These articles are available on my Research Gate portal profile. I invite you to join me in scientific cooperation.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

Please answer,

The above text is entirely my own work written by me on the basis of my research.

In writing this text I did not use other sources or automatic text generation systems.

Copyright by Dariusz Prokopowicz

On my profile of the Research Gate portal you can find several publications on the problems of monetary policy and its role in the issue of systemic credit risk management and in the context of the emergence of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. I invite you to scientific cooperation on this issue.

I invite you to discuss in the problematic of changes in the role of central banking in the context of financial and economic crises. In the context of the ultra-easy monetary policies applied by central banks during the recent economic and financial crises, questions arise about a possible change in the role and importance of central banking in the context of the macroeconomic stability of economies and their impact on the situation in financial markets. Particularly relevant issues of central banking, including the role of central banks in the banking and financial systems of modern countries, anti-crisis instruments of soft monetary policy used by central banks, synergistic actions of central banks using the example of the FED, ECB and NBP, mistakes made by central banks and factors generating the escalation of financial crises I described in the following publication:

Comparisons of the monetary policy of the central banks of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

I would like to invite you to join me in scientific cooperation,

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

The research I am conducting shows that the recent economic and financial crises, including the global financial crisis of 2008, the pandemic economic crisis of 2020, the strong increase in inflation in 2021-2022, the energy crisis of 2022, the recession of the economy of the first half of 2023 are the result of overdeveloped state interventionism, the manual control of monetary and fiscal policy and the deregulation of financial markets. From the research I conduct in the problem of the sources of economic, financial and other crises, it follows that strongly developed economic state interventionism is usually undertaken as an anti-crisis and/or pro-development measure aimed at reducing the scale, level and probability of occurrence of financial, economic crises, etc., but, on the other hand, often the mentioned interventionist activity of the government leads to an escalation of risk levels and generates the mentioned crises. Recent years of the Polish economy have been a series of economic crises generated by various factors but also by the government. In 2020, the government, through the introduction of lockdowns and national quarantines, generated a deep recession in the economy, then through the introduction of a large amount of printed money into the economy without coverage in the products and services produced, an increase in inflation was generated from 2021, a particularly deep energy crisis in Poland in 2022 (due to the blocking of the green transformation of the energy sector), an increase in interest rates by the NBP, a decline in investment and a downturn in the economy in 2022 and 2023, up to another recession in the economy in the 1st half of 2023. During the previous years, thanks to the applied chaotic economic policy of the government and monetary policy of the NBP in Poland, one crisis was replaced by another, and so on. And SME companies and enterprises lost a lot thanks to these crises, which were largely generated in previous years thanks to the applied, chaotically conducted, ad hoc, non-strategic, etc. economic policy of the government and monetary policy of the NBP central bank. In 2023, the scale of bankruptcies of companies and enterprises in the SME sector in Poland was the highest for many years. It is therefore necessary to continue research in the problems of the role and importance of economic state interventionism in the context of changes in the rate of economic growth and economic development, and to develop the most appropriate system solutions, economic programs, instruments for activating economic activity, activating innovation, counteracting the development of crises and implementing solutions that will result in increasing the macroeconomic stability of the economy with simultaneous sustainable economic development, including taking into account the implementation of the objectives of sustainable development, the principles of the green economy and closed-loop economy, sustainable and zero-carbon economy.

I am researching this issue. I have published the results of my research in several publications, including the following chapters in a monograph:

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Some believe that central banks, like the Federal Reserve, have complete control over the economy through interest rates and monetary policy. In reality, central banks influence the economy but cannot control it entirely. Fiscal policy, global factors, and market sentiment also play significant roles.

In the country where I operate according to the content of Article 219 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland, the state budget should be implemented in accordance with the Budget Law and the Budget Law also in accordance with the Constitution. However, in Poland, a kind of second, additional, alternative “state budget” based on additional expenditures realized with printed money has been in operation for several years. This additional “state budget” functioning in addition to the official state budget is in fact not a budget at all, but is made up of financial special purpose funds specially created for this purpose in the Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego and the Polish Development Fund, which are fed with printed money. The mechanism of the aforementioned money printing, i.e. the national currency PLN, was used in Poland on a historically exceptional scale for the first time during the Covid-19 pandemic. the government in Poland at the time took advantage of the confusion that arose during the Covid-19 pandemic in the financial markets, including the capital markets, to introduce, on the one hand, lockdowns deepening the recession of the economy and financial support programs for the economy based on the large amount of printed money introduced into the economy. The mechanism of the aforementioned money printing, i.e. the national PLN currency, was borrowed from other countries that used this solution during previous deep economic and/or financial crises. For example, during the global financial crisis of 2008, this mechanism was used on a large scale in some countries, but then it was a matter of financial support of the banking system with money coming from the state's public finance system in order to maintain the liquidity of commercial and investment banks, i.e. institutions that were largely responsible for causing the said financial crisis. In Poland, on the other hand, during the pandemic economic crisis of 2020, the procedure of introducing a large amount of printed money into the economy was not aimed at supporting the banking system, which was in a good situation and in the following years 2021-2024 recorded record profits, nor was it aimed at financially supporting the implementation of pro-development investment projects, in which new technologies, etc. would be implemented. The printed, anti-crisis money was given to a large number of companies and enterprises operating in various sectors of the economy in the form of subsidies to pay fixed costs and subsidies to employees' salaries on the condition that business activity was maintained despite the lockdowns and periods of national quarantine that had been introduced, and on the condition that the state of employment was maintained despite the real significant reduction in the scale of business activity. The idea was that the official level of employment shown by the Central Statistical Office would not fall and the level of unemployment would not rise in the business sector. The result of this unconstitutional procedure was that the government generated one of the highest inflation rates that occurred in Poland compared to Europe in the years 2021-2023. The mechanism of the aforementioned money printing, i.e. the national currency PLN, consisted in Poland in that the central bank, i.e. the National Bank of Poland, indirectly bought certain issues of rolled-up treasury bonds, and in this way more than 300 billion PLN of additional money was introduced into the economy without coverage in manufactured products and services. These additional series of Treasury bonds were transferred to the special purpose funds of the Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego and the Polish Development Fund. The central bank then redeemed them, and in this way the printed money was introduced into the aforementioned special purpose funds. The earmarked funds of the Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego and the Polish Development Fund were excluded from the official state budget, and in this way the government implemented a kind of creative accounting for the state's public finance system.

The key issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets are described in my article below:

IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY

I have described some of the issues of the above in the following articles:

IMPACT OF THE SARS-COV-2 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON GLOBALIZATION PROCESSES

POLAND'S 2022 ENERGY CRISIS AS A RESULT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND YEARS OF NEGLECT TO CARRY OUT A GREEN TRANSFORMATION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR

I described the key issues of anti-crisis state interventionism in my article below:

Anti-crisis state intervention and created in media images of global financial crisis

Analysis of the effects of post-2008 anti-crisis mild monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

I invite you to familiarize yourself with the issues described in the above-mentioned publications, as well as to scientific cooperation in these issues.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scholars and researchers:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

In recent years, the scale of the occurrence of serious economic and financial crises in some regions of the world and/or on a global scale has been intensifying. The scale of the appearance of certain types of economic, financial, energy, etc. crises has been increasing since the 1970s. The abolition of gold parity for the U.S. dollar, oil crises, deregulation and liberalization of the functioning of financial markets, increasing the active role of central banks in shaping monetary policies with the possibility of adding money injected into the economy through direct purchase of treasury bonds by the central bank, abolishing some of the previously introduced systemic prudential instruments used in credit risk management, increasing the scale of international operations of investment banks and investment funds making speculative transactions in foreign capital markets are just some of the sources of the increase in the scale and frequency of financial and economic crises since the 1970s. Some types of the aforementioned crises have appeared with increasing frequency and magnitude in the current 21st century. The day on September 15, 2008, when the world's fourth-largest investment bank Lehman Brothers went bankrupt was considered the beginning of the global financial crisis. This crisis was generated by, among other things, erroneously conducted overly lax monetary policies that were supposed to favor financial markets even when assets were overvalued in capital markets, overly liberalized credit policies in mortgage lending, disregarding safety standards in credit risk management and practicing moral gambling in investment banking, and so on. In 2020, there was a pandemic economic crisis, which initially developed through the Covid-19 pandemic to then be exacerbated by large-scale lockdowns imposed in some countries on economic entities operating in selected, certain industries, mainly service sectors of the economy, and the introduction of so-called national quarantines. In some countries, where, such as Poland, the development of the cheapest renewable energy sources was blocked and slowed down in 2022, when the price of fossil fuels rose strongly, a deep energy crisis occurred. Beginning in 2021, inflation began to rise rapidly in many countries, generated by pumping large amounts of printed money into the economies, whose task was to mitigate the scale of the recession generated by the lockdowns and national quarantines introduced repeatedly during the Covid-19 pandemic. In order to limit the growth of inflation, which, as in Poland, rose to double-digit levels, the central bank raised interest rates. The effect of such anti-inflationary measures was to reduce liquidity in the financial sector, increase the cost of borrowed money, make credit more expensive and reduce the scale of investment in many sectors of the economy. The result was a recession of the economy, which in many countries appeared in the 1st half of 2023. In view of the above, the misapplied measures of monetary and/or fiscal policy eased too much led to the generation of a financial and/or economic crisis. Subsequently, the anti-crisis instruments applied more than once led to the generation of another economic crisis. In addition, a climate and environmental crisis is also developing in the long term as a result of continued high greenhouse gas emissions, ignoring issues of protecting the planet's climate, biosphere and biodiversity, slowing down the development of renewable energy sources and implementing the green transformation plan for the economy on a limited scale. In view of the above, some crises like the pandemic economic crisis of 2020, among others, were generated by new factors like the Covid-19 pandemic, which could later be referred to as so-called “black swans” due to their uniqueness, atypicality and unexpected appearance by no one. On the other hand, the key root factors of some economic and financial crises include misguided state interventionism, errors in forecasting and analysis of the macroeconomic situation, misapplied pro-growth and/or anti-crisis instruments within the framework of certain economic, fiscal, budgetary, sectoral and monetary policies pursued by the government and conducted by the central bank. In view of the above, it is probably not possible to conduct economic, monetary, etc. policies without making mistakes. It is not possible to forecast all, future impact factors, determinants shaping the macroeconomic situation and potentially all events that may lead to further economic and/or financial crises in the future. However, it is possible to learn from past mistakes, and given this knowledge, a more sustainable, secure economy can be built, processes and instruments for managing credit risk and other categories of risk can be continuously improved, financial markets, including capital markets, commodity markets, securities markets can be systemically strengthened through prudent use of prudential instruments, not ignoring the principles of financial security, not practicing moral gambling in investment banking, and so on. Perhaps in the future, the next financial and economic crises that will occur will be the result of, on the one hand, still not adequately refined systemic prudential instruments, institutional financial security arrangements, credit risk management instruments, etc., and new factors and events that are difficult to forecast, which can probably later be called the next black swans. however, there are crises that we know will worsen in the future and/or will be the source of the occurrence of increasingly serious negative effects on the economy and humans. this kind of long-term crisis already in operation is the ever-developing and worsening climate crisis and, at the same time, the environmental crisis, which is associated with the process of rapid loss of biodiversity of the planet's natural ecosystems.

The key issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets are described in my article below:

IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY

IMPACT OF THE SARS-COV-2 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON GLOBALIZATION PROCESSES

The key issues of the problematic sources of Poland's exceptionally deep energy cross in 2022 are described in my co-authored article below:

POLAND'S 2022 ENERGY CRISIS AS A RESULT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND YEARS OF NEGLECT TO CARRY OUT A GREEN TRANSFORMATION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR

Zarzadzanie kryzysowe w przedsiebiorstwie opisałem w artykule:

CRISES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF BUSINESS ENTITIES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT

I described the key issues of opportunities and threats to the development of artificial intelligence technology in my article below:

Anti-crisis state intervention and created in media images of global financial crisis

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

The Eurozone future: How the crisis could unfold in the near-term

Is it possible to build a highly effective, multi-faceted, intelligent forecasting system for future financial and economic crises based on artificial intelligence technology in combination with Data Science analytics, Big Data Analytics, Business Intelligence and/or other Industry 4.0 technologies as part of a forecasting system for complex, multi-faceted economic processes in such a way as to reduce the scale of the impact of the paradox of a self-fulfilling prediction and to increase the scale of the paradox of not allowing a predicted crisis to occur due to pre-emptive anti-crisis measures applied?

What do you think about the involvement of artificial intelligence in combination with Data Science, Big Data Analytics, Business Intelligence and/or other Industry 4.0 technologies for the development of sophisticated, complex predictive models for estimating current and forward-looking levels of systemic financial, economic risks, debt of the state's public finance system, systemic credit risks of commercially operating financial institutions and economic entities, forecasting trends in economic developments and predicting future financial and economic crises?

Research and development work is already underway to teach artificial intelligence to 'think', i.e. the conscious thought process realised in the human brain. The aforementioned thinking process, awareness of one's own existence, the ability to think abstractly and critically, and to separate knowledge acquired in the learning process from its processing in the abstract thinking process in the conscious thinking process are just some of the abilities attributed exclusively to humans. However, as part of technological progress and improvements in artificial intelligence technology, attempts are being made to create "thinking" computers or androids, and in the future there may be attempts to create an artificial consciousness that is a digital creation, but which functions in a similar way to human consciousness. At the same time, as part of improving artificial intelligence technology, creating its next generation, teaching artificial intelligence to perform work requiring creativity, systems are being developed to process the ever-increasing amount of data and information stored on Big Data Analytics platform servers and taken, for example, from selected websites. In this way, it may be possible in the future to create "thinking" computers, which, based on online access to the Internet and data downloaded according to the needs of the tasks performed and processing downloaded data and information in real time, will be able to develop predictive models and specific forecasts of future processes and phenomena based on developed models composed of algorithms resulting from previously applied machine learning processes. When such technological solutions become possible, the following question arises, i.e. the question of taking into account in the built intelligent, multifaceted forecasting models known for years paradoxes concerning forecasted phenomena, which are to appear only in the future and there is no 100% certainty that they will appear. Well, among the various paradoxes of this kind, two particular ones can be pointed out. One is the paradox of a self-fulfilling prophecy and the other is the paradox of not allowing a predicted crisis to occur due to pre-emptive anti-crisis measures applied. If these two paradoxes were taken into account within the framework of the intelligent, multi-faceted forecasting models being built, their effect could be correlated asymmetrically and inversely proportional. In view of the above, in the future, once artificial intelligence has been appropriately improved by teaching it to "think" and to process huge amounts of data and information in real time in a multi-criteria, creative manner, it may be possible to build a highly effective, multi-faceted, intelligent forecasting system for future financial and economic crises based on artificial intelligence technology, a system for forecasting complex, multi-faceted economic processes in such a way as to reduce the scale of the impact of the paradox of a self-fulfilling prophecy and increase the scale of the paradox of not allowing a predicted crisis to occur due to pre-emptive anti-crisis measures applied. In terms of multi-criteria processing of large data sets conducted with the involvement of artificial intelligence, Data Science, Big Data Analytics, Business Intelligence and/or other Industry 4. 0 technologies, which make it possible to effectively and increasingly automatically operate on large sets of data and information, thus increasing the possibility of developing advanced, complex forecasting models for estimating current and future levels of systemic financial and economic risks, indebtedness of the state's public finance system, systemic credit risks of commercially operating financial institutions and economic entities, forecasting economic trends and predicting future financial and economic crises.

In view of the above, I address the following questions to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please respond,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

The following articles are related to the above issues in some respects:

OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPLICATIONS AND THE NEED FOR NORMATIVE REGULATION OF THIS DEVELOPMENT

APPLICATION OF DATA BASE SYSTEMS BIG DATA AND BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SOFTWARE IN INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIZATION

The importance of Big Data Analytics technology in business management

THE QUESTION OF THE SECURITY OF FACILITATING, COLLECTING AND PROCESSING INFORMATION IN DATA BASES OF SOCIAL NETWORKING

The postpandemic reality and the security of information technologies ICT, Big Data, Industry 4.0, social media portals and the Internet

Growing importance of ICT, Industry 4.0 and Big Data Analytics as key determinants of the development of The Financial Industry 4.0

Business Intelligence analytics based on the processing of large sets of information with the use of sentiment analysis and Big Data

The Big Data technologies as an important factor of electronic data processing and the development of computerised analytical platforms, Business Intelligence

I invite you to collaborate with me on research.

Warm regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Hello to all my fellow Biologists.

I have resorted to posting this question as my last desperate attempt to find a place for myself in the world of biotechnology.

I am a first class student with relatively good grades (GPA 3.77/4.00) in BSc. of Biotechnology (Hons), excellent extra-curriculars and competitions under my belt, 6 months of work as a Field/Research Assistant and 4 years of previous work experience in events management. I have experience in the microbiology, molecular biology, antivirals, nutraceuticals and cell culture disciplines. I have also taken a great liking to scientific communication and create visual content to make biology simpler for the Layman, both bother and in my own time.

Despite all this, I haven't had a single postgraduate application succeed for the last 2 years. And though I do understand there is high competition for available spots, I also wonder what I may be lacking despite some telling me I have an "impressive CV" and can do a direct PhD.

It is unfortunate however that my family is not doing financially well, therefore I can only afford opportunities with a scholarship or that are work/salary-based. Perhaps this narrows available opportunities but regardless, studentship scholarships have very evidently not opted for me, simply because "there were too many applicants this time around". Perhaps lacking funds is not enough of a criteria? (Hint of sarcasm).

Additionally, I was born and raised in the UAE (I do not get citizenship), therefore I am also looking for a potential country to eventually settle down in while doing the work I love.

I would greatly appreciate if anyone would know of opportunities I may be able to apply for like fully funded PhDs, or skilled/summer programs and workshops/internships, or even Research or Lab assistant positions you or someone you know may be looking for, because unfortunately, I'm 2 rejections away from being completely out of options.

I would greatly appreciate any input you may have or can share with me! I have also added my CV for your reference.

I don't want my impression of the field I love to be tainted with nothing but rejections, and to settle for a job outside our field simply because I had no other choice.

I look forward to hearing from you all.

Sincerely,

Zahraa Ozeer

Set at both ends of the node, the inflow and outflow of money are respectively Mg and Mx , the node has money stock is Mc（"Node" refers to the banks, consumers and companies through which money "flows"）

Mx=Mg+Mc

The formula means that the money that flows out of the node is equal to the currency that the node originally has and the currency that flows in. For example, if someone had $800 and received a $200 tip, then he had $1,000, and then he bought an iPhone for $1,000.

Mx>Mg+Mc

This situation means that the amount of money out from the node is greater than the sum of the original amount of money and the subsequent income of the node. In this case, for example, when the bank borrows too much money and the borrower cannot keep up with the repayment. This condition  is equivalent to a human blood loss.

Mx<Mg+Mc

This means that the amount of money flowing out of the node is less than the sum of the original amount of money and income of the node. In most cases, this inequality formula is safe to protect the economy from a financial crisis. But money can also cause problems if it does not flow , this can cause deflation because of insufficient spending power. If this case is of production and consumption, this situation can be compared to the blockage of human  blood flow.

These three cases of the flow of node currency can be compared to human health, blood loss      and vascular blockage. Obviously, blood loss is unhealthy, and the financial crisis is the "blood loss" of the banking system, and the "blockage" is that the rich people's money is not consumed.

The cause of the financial crisis is that the flow of money is blocked or cut off like "water". When the equation above is equal, the flow of money is smooth, the other two scenarios could lead to a       financial crisis, in severe cases.

The mistake the Bank of America made in 2008 was not to timely check the income of people      who borrowed money to buy a house, that is, not watching the speed of their currency flows, this has caused the banks' money supply and demand to lose their balance.

At the very beginning of May 2023, another bank in the US, i.e. First Republic Bank, declared bankruptcy and was quickly taken over by one of the largest investment banks JP Morgan. Considering the multitude of assets of this bank prior to the bankruptcy, this is the second largest banking bankruptcy in US history. An already classic mechanism for stopping potential customer panic in the banking sector was used, which was that First Republic Bank of San Francisco was first taken over by a state agency and then resold to a larger bank, i.e. JP Morgan. Financial problems at First Republic Bank were already noticeable from mid-March 2023. These problems quickly began to worsen when two smaller mid-sized investment banking formula banks in the US collapsed, i.e. Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank. The bankruptcies of these two banks caused panic among bank customers, who began to withdraw their deposits from many other banks, including First Republic. Consequently, the share price of California-based First Republic Bank also collapsed and entered a stock market crash. At the beginning of 2023, First Republic Bank's share price on the stock exchange was still reaching almost USD 150, while at the end of April 2023, the price was already at only a few USD. During just one trading session on Wall Street, First Republic Bank shares fell by around 50 per cent to US$ 8.1.

The withdrawal of deposits and deposits by bank customers has increased the scale of uncertainty in the financial markets and is linked to a decline in citizens' confidence in the banking sector. This issue, together with persistent inflation, prompted the Federal Reserve Bank to raise interest rates for the 10th time in a row to 5.25 per cent, the highest level since 2007, the year in which the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 began. Two days later, the European Central Bank also raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the 7th time in a row. The process of monetary tightening by two of the largest central banks in the context of global financial markets therefore continues in early May 2023. The tightening of monetary policy is aimed at reducing the levels of acceptable investment and credit risk in the context of transactions in financial markets. A negative side effect of this process is the possibility of a significant reduction in the scale of investment realisation in the real economy and a significant decline in the economic activity of firms and companies. In the situation of the development of such a negative scenario, unemployment may significantly increase, the level of repayment of bank loans may decrease, the level of consumption and tax revenues to the state budget may decrease. An additional systemic risk factor is the high level of debt in the state's public finance system. The steadily growing US public debt of USD 32 trillion will reach the statutory debt limit at the end of June 2023. On the other hand, high inflation helps the government in terms of reducing the scale of public debt servicing costs. However, high inflation with high unemployment can, in a situation of deepening downturn, lead to stagflation, i.e. a situation of economic crisis, during which the possibilities of applying anti-crisis state interventionism are limited.

I will write more on this subject in my book, which I am currently writing. In this monograph I will include the results of my ongoing research on this issue. I invite you to join me in scientific cooperation on this issue.

Counting on your opinions, on getting to know your personal opinion, on an honest approach to discussions in scientific problems, and not on ready-made answers generated in ChatGPT, I deliberately used the phrase "in your opinion" in the question.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What is your opinion on this topic?

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please respond,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

The following articles are related to the above issues in some respects:

I wrote about the sources of high inflation that occurred after the Covid-19 pandemic from 2021 onwards, based on my research, in the following article:

THE POSTCOVID RISE IN INFLATION: COINCIDENCE OR THE RESULT OF MISGUIDED, EXCESSIVELY INTERVENTIONIST AND MONETARIST ECONOMIC POLICIES

I have described the key aspects of the monetary policy pursued by central banks in recent years in the following article:

Comparisons of the monetary policy of the central banks of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland

ACTIVATING INTERVENTIONIST MONETARY POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SECURITY OF THE EUROPEAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM

Analysis of the effects of post-2008 anti-crisis mild monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

Synergy of post-2008 Anti-Crisis Policy of the Mild Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

I invite you to collaborate with me on this topic.

Warm regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

A recent survey shows that only 60 per cent of the public in Poland knows what inflation is, including the awareness that a drop in inflation from a high level means that prices are still rising but more slowly. In Poland, in February 2023, the government-controlled Central Statistical Office showed consumer inflation at 18.4 per cent. Since March, disinflation has been realised. In April 2023, shown by the Central Statistical Office, consumer inflation stood at 14.7 per cent. the most optimistic forecasts of the central bank cooperating informally with the government, i.e. the National Bank of Poland, suggest that Poland's falling inflation may only fall to single-digit levels in December. After deducting international factors, i.e. the prices of energy raw materials, energy and foodstuffs, core inflation, i.e. that determined by internal factors in Poland, still stands at around 12 per cent. The drop in inflation since March has been largely determined by a reduction in the high, until recently excessively high margins and prices of motor fuels by the government-controlled, monopolistically operating, state-owned gas and fuel concern, which holds over 90 per cent of domestic production and sales of motor fuels. These reductions are the result of criticism in the independent media that this government-controlled concern is acting anti-socially, making excessive profits by maintaining increased margins and not reducing the price of motor fuels until early 2023, despite the fact that the prices of energy raw materials, including oil and natural gas, have already fallen to pre-war levels in Ukraine. Citizens can only find out from the government-independent media what is really happening in the economy. Consequently, in the government-controlled meanstream media, including, among others, the government-controlled so-called public television, other media, including independent media, are constantly criticised and informationally harassed. But back to the issue of economic knowledge of the public. Taking into account the media in Poland, it is the media independent from the PIS government that play an important role in increasing economic awareness and knowledge, including objective presentation of events in the economy, objective and consistent with the fundamentals of economics explanation of how economic processes work. The aforementioned research shows that as many as 40 per cent of citizens in Poland still do not know what inflation is, do not fully understand what the successive decrease in inflation consists in. Some of these 40 per cent of the public assume that a fall in inflation, even from a high level, i.e. the disinflation currently taking place, means that the prices of purchased products and services are supposedly falling. The level of economic knowledge is therefore still low and various dishonest economic actors and institutions take advantage of this. The low level of economic knowledge among the public has often been exploited by para-financial companies, which, in their advertising campaigns and in the presentation of their image as banks, have created financial pyramids that have taken money from the public for unreliable deposits. Many citizens lost their life savings in this way. In Poland, this was the case when the authorities overseeing the financial system inadequately informed citizens about the high risk of losing the money they deposited with such para-banking companies and pseudo-investment companies as Kasa Grobelnego and AmberGold. In addition, the low level of economic knowledge in society also makes it easier for unreliable political options to find support among a significant proportion of citizens in society for populist pseudo-economic policy programmes and, on that basis, also to win parliamentary elections, and to conduct economic policy in a way that leads to financial or economic crises after a few years. It is therefore necessary to develop a system of economic education from primary school onwards, but also in the so-called Universities of the Third Age, which are mainly used by senior citizens. This is important because it is seniors who are most exposed to unreliable, misleading publicity campaigns run by money laundering companies. Thanks to the low level of economic knowledge, the government in Poland, through the medium of the controlled meanstream media, persuades a significant part of the population to support a real anti-social, anti-environmental, anti-climatic, financially unsustainable pseudo economic policy, which leads to high indebtedness of the state financial system, to the continuation of financial and economic crises.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please respond,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

Counting on your opinions, on getting to know your personal opinion, on an honest approach to the discussion of scientific issues and not ready-made answers generated in ChatGPT, I deliberately used the phrase "in your opinion" in the question.

The above text is entirely my own work written by me on the basis of my research.

I have not used other sources or automatic text generation systems such as ChatGPT in writing this text.

Copyright by Dariusz Prokopowicz

Warm regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

US Bank Index traded at 44.10 this Tuesday, March 14th, increasing 2.25 or 5.38 per cent since the previous trading session. Looking back, over the last four weeks, US Bank Index gained 24.32 per cent. Over the last 12 months, its price fell by 31.92 per cent.

Bank of America (American multinational investment bank and financial services holding company): over the last 12 months, its price fell by 30.41 per cent.

Credit Suisse Group AG is a global investment bank and financial services: over the last 12 months, its price fell by 68.51 per cent.

Figure Credit: Trending Economics

When, in March 2020, following the WHO's declaration of a global epidemic or pandemic, there was a panic sell-off of investment assets on the capital markets and the risk of a deep, double-digit recession of the economy emerged, central banks cut interest rates and the governments of some countries launched financial assistance programmes on a record scale, consisting of non-refundable financial subsidies for commercially operating companies and enterprises in various sectors of the economy, refinancing of fixed costs of economic activity, deferral of payments of contributions to the social security system, tax reductions, etc., the state's financial resources for these large assistance programmes will be used to finance the crisis. The state drew its financial resources for these large financial aid programmes from additional issues of treasury bonds, which were purchased by commercial banks, investment banks, enterprises, citizens and in some countries, such as Poland, mainly by the central bank. Additional, huge amounts of money introduced into the economy without being covered by manufactured products and services, as predicted in mid-2020, generated a strong increase in inflation on the basis of an increase in the prices of raw materials, products and services, which began almost at the beginning of 2021. Additional large amounts of money without coverage in economic goods in some countries such as Poland were introduced into the economy outside the budget, i.e. by transferring this additional money to special purpose funds created for this purpose functioning in institutional government agencies bypassing the state budget. These institutions distributed this money in the form of mainly non-refundable subsidies to companies and enterprises, some of which did not function because they were temporarily in lockdowns introduced by the government. During the 2020 pandemic economic crisis, therefore, interventionist, historically large bailout programmes based on so-called Crisis Shields were applied, and in some countries mainly on the basis of issuing and selling to commercial banks, companies and citizens additional Treasury bond issues. Many banks purchased these treasury bonds in large quantities when, prior to the pandemic, inflation and interest rates were much lower than in the 2021 - 2023 period. During the 2020 pandemic, central banks further reduced interest rates to interventionist low levels. Some commercial and investment banks, with the economic downturn and recession deepening during the pandemic, bought government bonds treating these instruments as safe assets during the economic crisis and as they reduced the scale of their lending and/or investments in securities generating higher levels of investment and credit risk such as shares issued by listed companies due to the recession of the economy. However, when central banks started a cycle of interest rate increases from 2021 and 2022 onwards, then the prices of previously issued government bonds with lower interest rates on stock exchanges began to fall, as these securities lost their previous attractiveness. At that point, rating agencies began to downgrade the ratings of banks that had previously purchased large volumes of previously issued sovereign bonds with significantly lower interest rates, in view of the average market interest rate levels already prevailing from 2022 onwards, then the problem was recognised. This problem was the potential insolvency and large financial losses of these banks. However, when analysed on a macroeconomic level, the problem is now much broader. Well, public debts have increased strongly in many countries after the pandemic economic crisis of 2020. The increase in inflation already predicted from mid-2020, which started to materialise from 2021, caused central banks to raise interest rates. On the one hand, some investment banks like Silicon Valey Bank and Signature Bank, which had invested a large part of their funds in government bonds just before the cornovirus pandemic at several times lower oproc. levels for these financial instruments, generated large financial losses and collapsed. On the other hand, thanks to high inflation, the real value of public debt in many countries is falling.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please respond,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

The following articles are related to the above issues in some respects:

I have written about the sources of high inflation that occurred after the Covid-19 pandemic from 2021 onwards, based on research I have conducted, in my article below:

THE POSTCOVID RISE IN INFLATION: COINCIDENCE OR THE RESULT OF MISGUIDED, EXCESSIVELY INTERVENTIONIST AND MONETARIST ECONOMIC POLICIES

I have described the key aspects of the monetary policy pursued by central banks in recent years in the following article:

Comparisons of the monetary policy of the central banks of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland

ACTIVATING INTERVENTIONIST MONETARY POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SECURITY OF THE EUROPEAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM

Analysis of the effects of post-2008 anti-crisis mild monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

Synergy of post-2008 Anti-Crisis Policy of the Mild Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

I invite you to collaborate with me on research projects.

Warm regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

In the context of the specific measures, instruments and programmes of economic state interventionism applied during the recent financial and economic crises, there are still debates concerning the assessment of their effectiveness and the resolution of whether these interventionist measures actually help economies and reduce the scale of the development of crises or rather generate these crises. One of the key, fundamental currents in the history of economic thought, i.e. classical economics, points to the need to limit the government's influence on the economic process as much as possible, leaving all processes in the economy to the market mechanism. In the 20th century, economic, financial, social, technological, political, etc. realities changed, which determined the development of various concepts, forms and aspects of economic state interventionism, including the successively increasing influence of the state on economic and financial processes. On the other hand, the 1970s saw the development of neoclassical currents, which, on the one hand, referring to classical economics, updated the question of the importance of the dominant categories of production factors, including categories of production factors of increasing importance, i.e. technology, information, entrepreneurship, innovation, etc. The growing importance of these categories of production factors was due to the third technological revolution taking place at the time, determined by the development of ICT information technology, structurally changing economies with a growing service sector, the increasing scale of deregulation of financial markets as a result of the commodity crises of the 1970s. In addition, it happened that the symptoms of a developing economic crisis were misinterpreted and, in order to limit the level of investment credit, central banks raised interest rates, causing an increase in the cost of borrowing money, a decrease in the availability of credit, a decrease in the level of liquidity in many economic entities and, consequently, an aggravation of the economic crisis. This kind of situation occurred at the end of the 1920s and led to the then greatest economic crisis known as the Great Depression of the period 1929-1933 in the USA and up to 1934 in Europe. Also in terms of the government's formulation of budgetary and fiscal policy, signals from the financial markets and the economy were often misinterpreted, which then resulted in the inappropriate use of interventionist economic, budgetary or fiscal policy instruments. For example, the introduction of a historically large amount of additional money into the economy during the coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19) in 2020 became one of the key factors in the rise in inflation in 2021 - 2023. The tightened anti-inflationary monetary policy of central banking caused a significant downturn in the economy. In view of the above, the frequently misinterpreted symptoms of changes in the economic situation in the economy determined the inappropriate application of anti-crisis economic policy instruments, which led to the occurrence of another crisis or aggravation of the scale of the already developing economic crisis. In view of the above, an important research thesis can be added to our considerations concerning the importance of the role and significance of state interventionism not only in the context of anti-crisis economic policy but also in generating economic, financial, debt, etc. crises. I therefore address the following question: Do you agree with my following thesis that honestly and fairly towards the citizens, fully realistically pro-social, without corruption and respecting the legal norms in force, state interventionism conducted within the framework of economic policy usually solves economic problems, reduces the scale of economic crises, etc.? On the other hand, state interventionism conducted within the framework of economic policy, but conducted unreliably unfairly towards citizens, unethically, with acceptance of corruption, usually leads to economic, financial, debt and other crises and generates various economic, social and other problems. In view of the above, considerations concerning the evaluation of the effectiveness of measures, instruments and systems applied by the government within the framework of economic state interventionism, the resolution of whether these interventionist measures actually help economies and reduce the scale of the development of crises or rather generate these crises, should also include the determination of the scale and legitimacy of the application of keys economics in the context of the fluctuation of economic processes within the framework of multi-year business cycles, the growing indebtedness of the system of state finances and the unaccounted for negative effects within the framework of social, climatic and environmental external costs, i.e. environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, etc.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What is your opinion on this topic?

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please respond,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

The following articles are related to the above issue in some respects:

I wrote about the sources of high inflation that occurred after the Covid-19 pandemic from 2021 onwards, based on my research, in the following article:

THE POSTCOVID RISE IN INFLATION: COINCIDENCE OR THE RESULT OF MISGUIDED, EXCESSIVELY INTERVENTIONIST AND MONETARIST ECONOMIC POLICIES

I have described the key aspects of the monetary policy pursued by central banks in recent years in the following article:

Comparisons of the monetary policy of the central banks of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland

ACTIVATING INTERVENTIONIST MONETARY POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SECURITY OF THE EUROPEAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM

Analysis of the effects of post-2008 anti-crisis mild monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

Synergy of post-2008 Anti-Crisis Policy of the Mild Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

The role and application of Keynesian macroeconomic anti-crisis theories in the context of development of the financial system in Poland

POLAND'S 2022 ENERGY CRISIS AS A RESULT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND YEARS OF NEGLECT TO CARRY OUT A GREEN TRANSFORMATION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR

CRISES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF BUSINESS ENTITIES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT

I invite you to collaborate with me on research projects.

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

The Asian banking and financial giants also following the tumble of Sillion Vally Bank. This might not be the same as the 2007-08 financial crisis. Though we have clearly seen a similar trend. Hope the Asian banks might be restored stability soon.

Graph: Trending Economics

On Monday 13.03.2023, the situation shaping the capital markets was influenced by the developing news in many media that one of the largest banks in the USA, i.e. Silicon Valley Bank, had declared bankruptcy. The collapsed SVB bank was taken over by the state-owned Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC, Federal Deposit Guarantee Corporation) on Friday 10.03.2023 after the bank was unable to pay out money to customers withdrawing their deposits in a panic. SVB is the 16th largest bank in the US and has served a significant proportion of Silicon Valley startups, companies and funds. Silicon Valley Bank was the largest collapse in the banking sector since the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse and the onset of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. At the end of 2022, SVB had more than $209 billion in assets. But the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is not the end of the problems in the financial markets. On Monday 13.03.2023, news hit the media that another bank is failing. Customers worried about their deposits also called many of their other banks to check that their money was safe. This second spectacular failure in the financial system is New York's Signature Bank, which was shut down by state market regulators on Sunday. According to the Reuters news agency, this is the third largest bank failure in US history. It is also another spectacular bankruptcy of a major financial institution overseas in just a few days. New York-based Signature Bank is a US financial institution that, at the end of 2022, had customer deposits worth almost USD 89 billion and USD 110.36 billion in assets. According to published official figures, almost a quarter of these funds came from cryptocurrencies. This raises a key issue to be resolved regarding the extent to which credit procedures and the credit risk management process at financial institutions have improved over the last 15 years, i.e. after the onset of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. I have described the determinants and root factors of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, including the mistakes made in credit risk management, in my articles on this issue, which I posted on my profile of this Research Gate portal after publication. I would like to invite those conducting research on this issue to join me in research collaboration on issues and factors for improving the credit risk management process in financial institutions.

In view of the above, I would like to address the following questions to the esteemed community of scholars and researchers:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please respond,

I invite you all to discuss,

The following articles are related to the above issues in some respects:

Comparisons of the monetary policy of the central banks of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland

ACTIVATING INTERVENTIONIST MONETARY POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SECURITY OF THE EUROPEAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM

Analysis of the effects of post-2008 anti-crisis mild monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

Synergy of post-2008 Anti-Crisis Policy of the Mild Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

Determinants of credit risk management in the context of the development of the derivatives market and the cyclical conjuncture economic processes

IMPROVING MANAGING THE CREDIT RISK IN CONDITIONS SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH

THE IMPLEMENTATION OF AN INTEGRATED CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN OPERATING IN POLAND COMMERCIAL BANKS

Importance and implementation of improvement process of prudential instruments in commercial banks on the background of anti-crisis socio-economic policy in Poland

GLOBALISATION AND NORMATIVE DETERMINANTS OF THE IMPROVEMENT OF BANKING CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN POLAND

I invite you to collaborate with me on research projects.

Thank you very much,

Warm regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Nobel laureate Eric S.Mashin says it is because banks and financial institutions are too leveraged. Is that true?

For example, I don't have a dollar, but I have a mansion worth hundreds of million dollars, so I go to the bank to borrow $100 million, then isn't my leverage infinite? I have a colleague who has only a thousand dollars in cash and no house, so he also borrowed $100 million from the bank. His leverage ratio is smaller than mine. Is his loan behavior more safe than mine? Of course, you might say, he has no collateral and the bank will not lend to him. So there's a question here, the bank wants collateral, why not pay attention to his thousand dollars? That doesn't mean that banks actually know that what can withstand risk is collateral, not leverage?

In recent years, on the one hand, unethical business practices and practices incompatible with corporate social responsibility have continued to occur in the intermediation of financial, investment transactions concluded on the capital markets. On the other hand, there are also still situations confirming the thesis that the institutions of financial, banking and capital markets supervision, including stock exchanges, investment funds, brokerage houses and offices, insurance companies, etc., to a limited and incomplete extent reduce the scale of unethical business practices on the capital markets. Could this be a symptom of the impending next global financial crisis? The progressive deregulation and liberalisation of the rules of financial markets since the 1970s, including capital markets, stock exchanges, has generated an increase in risks in these markets and enabled unethical business practices in commercial banks, investment banks, brokerage houses and so on. In addition to this, the increasing scale of the use of insider trading in the context of financial transactions, speculative investments made using securities listed on stock exchanges and other assets, the objects of transactions in the capital markets has increased the scale of the volatility of these markets. The use of unethical business practices in investment banks, brokerage firms, credit advisors in commercial banks providing mortgages ... reduced vigilance in detecting such practices in financial supervisory institutions became some of the key factors in generating the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. Applied short positions to monetise declines in equity valuations, stock indices and other capital market assets. The above-mentioned practices, as well as unreliable credit advice, the granting of mortgages to uncreditworthy individuals and entities, the sale by brokers employed by investment banks of securities highly rated by the banks' cooperating rating agencies, which later turned out to be worthless securities, are important factors that generated the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. Of course, the key underlying factors that generated the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 are not only issues related to financial sector entities serving retail customers, not only to commercially operating financial institutions, investment banks, etc., but also to the financial system. The key factors that generated the global financial crisis 2007-2008 also include systemic factors, i.e. the above-mentioned deregulation and liberalisation of financial markets, the abolition of prudential instruments that were introduced after the Great Depression of the 1930s in order to make the financial system safer and to increase the scale of stability in the functioning of the economy. In addition, just before the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, the central bank pursued an excessively lax monetary policy and an additional governmental institutional guarantee system was created against financial transactions carried out in commercial and investment banks, which were undertaken with the acceptance of ever higher levels of credit risk, ever higher levels of leverage, ever lower levels of collateral for the transactions carried out, etc. In recent years, new financial markets have been developing, such as cryptocurrency markets. In addition to this, there have been situations in which the economic situation on specific capital markets, stock exchanges and cryptocurrency platforms has been influenced by posts and comments made by persons recognised by the media, who are also active on social media platforms, including Twitter tweets, which may have influenced the mood and investment decisions of many social media users and, at the same time, individual investors active on capital markets. On the other hand, there have been many instances of insider trading in capital market transactions. In order for financial markets, including capital markets to operate efficiently and effectively, financial, banking and capital markets supervisory institutions, including stock exchanges, investment funds, brokerage houses and offices, insurance companies, etc., should effectively detect such economic crimes, dishonest actions of some capital markets participants, non-compliance with the applicable legal norms, application of unethical business practices detect and reduce their scale. Financial supervisory institutions should reduce the scale of unethical business practices on capital markets. When financial supervisory institutions function efficiently, financial markets function effectively and financial crises occur less frequently.

In view of the above, I would like to address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please answer with reasons,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

The following articles are related to the above issues in some respects:

Comparisons of the monetary policy of the central banks of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland

ACTIVATING INTERVENTIONIST MONETARY POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SECURITY OF THE EUROPEAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM

Analysis of the effects of post-2008 anti-crisis mild monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

Synergy of post-2008 Anti-Crisis Policy of the Mild Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

THE SHADOW BANKING AS AN EXAMPLE OF INEFFICIENCIES IN THE FUNCTIONING OF THE BANKING SYSTEM IN POLAND

GLOBALIZATIONAL AND NORMATIVE DETERMINANTS OF THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE BANKING CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN POLAND

THE IMPLEMENTATION OF AN INTEGRATED CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN OPERATING IN POLAND COMMERCIAL BANKS

I invite you to collaborate with me on research projects.

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Do you think the speed at which money flows remains the same? Fisher's equations generally assume that the velocity of money flow is constant, But the rate at which we find money flows in financial activity does not seem to be constant, Money flows at different rates throughout the economy, So I wrote a new formula for the flow of money to explain the 2008 financial crisis. Do you think it makes sense?

V=m1/m2/t,

Where m1 is the amount of currency outflow (inflow) of an individual or company, m2 is the asset of an individual or company, and time t.

The formula means that the speed of money that flows through a company or a certain consumer is the expenditure or income of money divided by the assets of that consumer. For example, if you have $10,000 this year and you spend $8,000, then the money you spend is flowing at 0.8 a year. The 2008 financial crisis was an imbalance in the speed of money flows, money moving too fast in financial institutions, So much so that the capital chain breaks there (because the people who bought a house can't pay back, and the lender's money can't flow as fast as the financial institutions)

Money in the economy is not static, it is flowing. Banks and financial institutions flowed so fast, and in 2008, these banks desperately lent money to people who bought houses, That means money flows out of the bank quickly, but the people who borrowed money don't earn enough to pay the loan on time, They pay back the money more slowly than the bank borrowing money. When they reach the critical point, the bank's money can not be provided to the depositors in time, thus causing a bank run. Just like the water flow, some of the water pipe is too big, the water flow is too fast, and the water flow rupture is equivalent to the rupture of Bank of America in 2008. Therefore, the 2008 financial crisis in the United States was caused by the unbalanced rate of money flow. The flow of money was broken and the capital chain was broken. The solution was for the central bank to release water and inject money into the banking system. Of course, getting the Fed to inject money is not the best way to solve the problem, just what has to be done when there is already a financial crisis. Until then, the government should try to keep the rate of money flow balanced, so that the speed of bank loans is roughly equal to the income of those who buy a house, or "equilibrium", so that the flow of money will not break and prevent financial crisis

..................................................................................................................................

Some time ago I wrote a formula for the speed of money flow, but I now feel that that formula is logically unreasonable, I think there's another very simple formula, so simple to upset me. Can you see that this formula is reasonable? Did anyone mention it before? Using human individuals or companies as "nodes", the flow rate of money flowing into this node is:

V=M/t

M is Money flowing out of or into the bank (assuming this "node" is the bank)

The formula means the amount of money flowing into or out of a company or individual at some time. For example, if a bank loans $10 million in a day, then the flow rate of the loan is:

V=10000000/day

A person's monthly salary is $1,000, so the speed of his salary flow is:

V=1000/month

The rate of money flow is calculated as the amount of money flowing in or out of the "node" per unit of time. If a bank, excluding reserves, it has $100 million, in a month, it lent $10 million to the customer who bought a house, assuming 10 people, 1 million each. If each of the ten customers pays $10,000 a month, the total is $100,000. Ignoring interest, there is still $9.9 million, and $9.9 million needs to be made up from other sources. If this bank, someone withdraw 90 million dollars a month,Then its $100 million is just enough.（(Regardless of bank profits and employee salaries) If the first 10 customers who borrow money to buy a house have a person who did not repay that month, then obviously, the bank's working capital is a problem, because some depositors can't get any cash.

Here, propose a "node monetary equilibrium", I don't know if this "equilibrium" has been proposed.

Set at both ends of the node, the inflow and outflow of money are respectively Mg and Mx , the node has money stock is Mc, and the time period is t, then:

Mx/t=(Mg+Mc)/t

Because the time period is the same, so:

Mx=Mg+Mc

Here, Mc is the currency, not including the fixed assets of the node, such as excluding his house, car, etc.（"Node" refers to the individual, company, bank and other subjects that "flow through" the currency.）

The formula means that the money that flows out of the node is equal to the currency that the node originally has and the currency that flows in. For example, if someone had $800 and received a $200 tip, then he had $1,000, and then he bought an iPhone for $1,000.

This is the equilibrium condition of extreme. In fact, there are three cases of the relationship between these three currencies, besides the one above, there are two:

Mx>Mg+Mc

This situation means that the amount of money out from the node is greater than the sum of the original amount of money and the subsequent income of the node. In this case, for example, when the bank borrows too much money and the borrower cannot keep up with the repayment. This condition is equivalent to a human blood loss.

There is also the most common condition:

Mx<Mg+Mc

This means that the amount of money flowing out of the node is less than the sum of the original amount of money and income of the node. This situation can be compared to the blockage of human blood flow.

These three cases of the flow of node currency can be compared to human health, blood loss and vascular blockage. Obviously, blood loss is unhealthy, and the financial crisis is the "blood loss" of the banking system, and the "blockage" is that the rich people's money is not consumed.

Ideally, money flows should certainly not be "bleeding" or "blocked" things, but certainly not in reality.

Here, "Mx=Mg+Mc" is called "money supply equilibrium".

The cause of the financial crisis is that the flow of money is blocked or cut off like "water". When the equation above is equal, the flow of money is smooth, the other two scenarios could lead to a financial crisis, in severe cases.

Internationally and globally operating social, economic, financial processes, cultural changes taking place, changing standards in the cross-border movement of various factors of production, various categories of capital, value, changes in the field of global Internet media, etc. in recent years have determined changes in the processes of globalization. The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic also modified globalization processes in many ways. Interrupted during the pandemic, the chains of international supply and procurement logistics delayed the delivery of components, prefabricated products and raw materials for production processes of manufactured final products in other regions of the world, in other countries, on other continents. On the other hand, during the pandemic, the scale of digitization and Internetization of economic processes increased, the use of remote communication, data transfer via the Internet, including internationally, increased. The scale of settlements and payments made online increased. The development of e-governance, e-banking, e-commerce, e-logistics, e-learning, purchases made via the Internet, remote work, digitization of public offices and institutions, development of online and mobile banking, offering cultural services of museums, galleries, theaters, etc., has accelerated. Also, the global problems of the climate crisis, the progressive process of global warming, the global problems of environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, the global problems of climate change discussed at the UN-Eth international COP Climate Conferences, etc. determine the processes of pro-environmental and pro-climate globalization. Also, economic and financial crises are sometimes realized internationally and globally. This was the case, for example, during the recent global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Key changes in market trends on commodity exchanges and stock exchanges are simultaneously occurring analogously in many different parts of the world, in different countries, on different continents. At present, in many countries where during the pandemic additional government subsidy programs were applied, financial mainly non-refundable state aid to commercially operating economic entities, additional financial social programs on the basis of the issuance of treasury securities, an increase in the debt of the system of state finances and the printing of money from 2021, an increase in inflation has appeared. Central banks to limit the growth of inflation taking analogous measures to raise interest rates affect economic processes in many countries. The rising cost of money causes a decline in lending, a decline in investment, a decline in the economic activity of companies and enterprises, unemployment may appear. Simultaneously appearing analogous downturn processes may lead to another economic crisis in 2023, which will also be global. Meanwhile, another energy crisis is currently developing in many countries. This crisis also determines the occurrence of various economic problems, which either also operate internationally or take place in the form of analogous economic, social and other processes realizing at the same time, in the same nature in different countries. Since the currently developing energy crisis determines many derivatives of analogous economic and other phenomena occurring in many countries, so it also acquires an international and perhaps global character.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of researchers and scientists:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Improving bank credit risk management is particularly important to reduce the scale of the share of bad loans that are not repaid on time, deteriorating loan portfolios, including paracredit products in commercial banks, including investment banks investing in securities and other speculative investment assets. Thanks to the efficient process of improving bank credit risk management, the scale of financial and economic crises is also reduced. How important it is to improve bank credit risk management and reliably carry out credit risk management, reasonably carry out bank lending, carry out banking in accordance with the principles of business ethics, respect bank customers, apply the principles of corporate social responsibility, shape a high level of good reputation of financial institutions, maintain a high level of public confidence in banks and other financial institutions, etc. this has been shown by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Breaking the above-mentioned principles and failing to follow good practices, ignoring the issue of sound application of credit risk management principles leads to serious crises in the financial system, bankruptcy of banks and, consequently, economic crises. On the other hand, in recent years, the greatest number of threats to banking have emerged from the Internet, i.e., the environment in which online and mobile banking is developing. Also during the pandemic of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (Covid-19), due to the strong increase in the scale of e-commerce, online payments and settlements, the scale of development of online banking and also the scale of cybercrime increased. As a result, the importance of banking cybercrime risk management is growing in banks, and the scale of allocating a portion of banks' surplus funds to secure financial transactions, transfers, payments and settlements made remotely through online and mobile banking is increasing. I researched the issue of credit risk management, bank lending procedures, the importance of an effectively conducted credit risk management process, the mistakes made in this regard, i.e. unreliable implementation of the credit risk management process in banks, violations of business ethics and good banking practices, leading to the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. The results of my research are included in publications on the issues of credit risk management, bank lending procedures, the methodology of assessing the creditworthiness of potential borrowers and credit risk of the bank, the scoring method of assessing the creditworthiness of customers and credit risk, the origins of the global financial crisis 2007-2009, etc. can be found in the publications I have posted on my profile of this Research Gate portal. I am currently conducting research in the field of benchmarking on the comparison of procedures, instruments, systems, etc. for credit risk management and cyber risk management. I invite you to cooperate with me on this issue. I request the results of the analogous analyses and studies conducted.

In view of the above, I address the following questions to the esteemed community of researchers and scholars:

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

The following articles are related to the above issue in some respects:

GLOBALISATION AND NORMATIVE DETERMINANTS OF THE IMPROVEMENT OF BANKING CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN POLAND

THE IMPLEMENTATION OF AN INTEGRATED CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN OPERATING IN POLAND COMMERCIAL BANKS

IMPROVING MANAGING THE CREDIT RISK IN CONDITIONS OF SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH

I invite you to collaborate with me on research projects.

Warm regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

In the past, already since the commodity crises of the 1970s, the period of the beginning of the development of various new types of derivatives, the increase in the scale of deregulation and liberalization of the operation of financial markets, the change of international monetary systems through the replacement of the Bretton Woods system with free exchange rate systems, the scale of instability in financial markets, including capital markets, currency markets, stock exchanges has increased significantly. During the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, data emerged confirming the facts of speculative activities by some investment banks, which increased the scale of development of the aforementioned crisis. Also, at the beginning of March 2020, when the World Health Organization declared the state of the global epidemic, i.e. the so-called SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic, this fact also triggered a strong increase in the volatility of asset valuations in the capital markets. When new events suddenly appear that generate uncertainty, fear then financial risks, credit risks, currency risks, liquidity risks, debt risks, etc.increase, which causes an increase in volatility in financial markets. Institutions that take advantage of this kind of situation, institutions that have sensitive information, use this kind of information and, on the basis of this information, carry out insider trading in certain capital markets are an example of imperfect functioning of financial markets. Such instances of imperfect functioning of financial markets, including capital markets, should be detected and limited by institutions established for this purpose, such as the Securities Commission, the Financial Supervision Commission, the Banking Supervision Commission, etc. The functioning of financial markets should be improved, and the rules, standards and procedures of individual institutions and segments of financial markets should be perfected. When it is the so-called small, small stock market investors then it is assumed that this is a positive factor in ensuring a certain level of liquidity in the capital market. However, when transactions are carried out by large financial institutions, including banks and investment funds with the involvement of large financial resources in an amount, for example, comparable to the value of the state budget of a small country, then there are quandaries about the possibility of deliberate not only exploitation of situations of instability in financial markets, but also about possible actions that amplify or even inspire these instabilities. For example, military actions and failures of critical infrastructure installations, high-risk system infrastructure, energy sector infrastructure can be factors that cause a significant increase in asset price volatility in capital markets, including energy commodity prices on commodity exchanges and securities prices on stock exchanges. A recent example would be failures, perhaps sabotage actions carried out on pipelines filled with natural gas causes destabilization in energy commodity price markets. This causes the currencies of small economies, i.e. Poland, for example, to fall. In addition, a significant increase in interest rates on the currencies of large economies like the US and the EU increases the scale of the decline in the currency of a small, developing economy and one that is highly exposed to the energy crisis. In addition, the war in Ukraine is taking place next to Poland. In addition, large, internationally operating investment banks can take advantage of this situation to conduct profitable speculative transactions using currencies characterized by a high level of exchange rate volatility and susceptibility to certain defined influencing factors. A decline in the exchange rate of the Polish national currency PLN will cause additional difficulties in the central bank's anti-inflationary, interventionist monetary policy. The topic of the need to improve the issues of the functioning of financial markets, including the improvement of the rules, standards and procedures for the operation of individual institutions and segments of financial markets is still relevant.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of researchers and scientists:

What are your thoughts on this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

The following articles are related to the above issues in some respects:

Comparisons of the monetary policy of the central banks of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland

Analysis of the effects of post-2008 anti-crisis mild monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank

ACTIVATING INTERVENTIONIST MONETARY POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SECURITY OF THE EUROPEAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM

IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY

CRISES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF BUSINESS ENTITIES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT

Anti-crisis state intervention and created in media images of global financial crisis

THE POST-COVID RISE IN INFLATION: COINCIDENCE OR THE RESULT OF MISGUIDED, EXCESSIVELY INTERVENTIONIST AND MONETARIST ECONOMIC POLICIES

I invite you to collaborate with me on research projects.

Warm regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Are the inflationary increases of mid-2022, among other things, the result of a developing price-wage spiral realised objectively in the commercial sectors of the economy or rather the result of an income-price spiral generated by subsidies, handouts, subsidies, etc. realised by interventionist government programmes of populist social policy and soft fiscal policy, carried out by public sector institutions of socio-economic policy programmes realised using the state's public finances?

If there are significant differences between countries on the above issue, what are these differences determined by? Are the sectoral/industrial structure of the economy and the extent of state interventionism applied by the government among the key determinants of the aforementioned differences?

What is your opinion on this topic?

Please reply,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

The formula for the currency flow speed is:

V=M1/t/M2.

M1 It is money away from the subject or money away into the subject.（Subject is the person who holds the currency or company or bank, etc）

M2 It is the property of the subject

T Is the unit of time.

Here, the "subject" through which money flows can be individuals, banks, companies, or

even the whole country. These subjects are pipes of money flow, like water pipes of water flow.

If the rate of money circulation between each subject is too different, then a financial crisis could occur. For example, the 2008 subprime crisis in 2008 was because the flow of money was amplified by "CDS", Because the money of customers who buy CDS and investment banks flows too fast, causing the financial crisis, That is, the speed of money flow is too large, causing the capital chain fracture, resulting in the financial crisis

By the way, I know Fisher's equation, and I wrote this is the speed formula of the microscopic money flow, unlike Fisher's. The rate of money flow varies in different parts of economic activity, for example, the speed at which banks borrow money and the speed of workers' income, which are too different can problems. The speed of money flow in Fisher's equations is macroscopic, and many times it is treated as constant. It doesn't say that all parts of an economy are different, it simply says that all parts of the economy are the same. It doesn't say that the currency speed of an economy varies from place to place, It is simply general to give a macroscopic flow velocity.

Both the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the lockdown and quarantine crisis of 2020 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic, the disrupted international supply and supply logistics chains and the supply problems of semiconductor-based microprocessors have seriously impeded the development of economic globalisation processes.

In addition, the currently developing crises (energy, food, climate) are also likely to modify globalisation processes in certain ways.

In view of the above, I address the following research question to the esteemed community of researchers and scientists:

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please reply,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

The following articles are related to the above issues in some respects:

I have described the main issues related to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets in my article below:

IMPACT OF THE SARS-COV-2 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON GLOBALISATION PROCESSES

I have described the key issues of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and financial markets in my article below:

IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC (COVID-19) ON FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY

I have described the issue of economic globalisation as an important factor in the systemic transformation of banking in Poland in the following article:

GLOBALISATIONAL AND NORMATIVE DETERMINANTS OF THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE BANKING CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN POLAND

My highly cited publication on economic globalisation:

Globalisation and the process of systemic and normative adaptation of the financial system in Poland to European Union standards

I invite you to collaborate with me on research projects.

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

I'm doing a panel data analysis of 40 countries from 2000 to 2015 (annual data) on banking. Like to know the result before 2010 and after 2010, i.e. how the global financial crisis affects banks. Which test is appropriate.

"US oil prices crashed into negative territory for the first time in history as the evaporation of demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic left the world awash with oil and not enough storage capacity — meaning producers are paying buyers to take it off their hands. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, traded as low as -$40.32 a barrel in a day of chaos in oil markets." , reported by FINANCIAL TIMES on April 20, 2020.

Now the most common questions that might be raised in all people's mind is that " Will Oil Price Recover and Oil Industry Survive?? If Yes, When and How this will Occur?? "

Shadow banks, which played a key role in triggering the recent global financial crisis, and venture capital companies that followed, have partly displaced traditional banks from corporate financing. Participation in the company as a shareholder increases the equity of these companies. At the same time, venture capital firms are pushing them to submit business plans with extreme growth assumptions that are intended to tempt other venture capital firms to provide additional equity for these companies. Unicorns are to be created that will eventually end up on the stock exchange. The whole thing looks suspiciously like a pyramid scheme. Where can one find empirical studies on this problem, which is capable of triggering the next global financial crisis?

I want to investigate some countries covid data with simulation for the following situations.

1. to identify the effect of covid in financial crisis

2. spreading versus market risk etc.

Removed Content

Already at least several commercial banks have created their own cryptocurrencies. Some investment funds invest part of their assets in selected cryptocurrencies. Recently, the investment bank JP Morgan has created its own cryptocurrency JPM Coin. Cryptocurrency JPM Coin will be used to settle initially a small part of the transaction, which JP Morgan performs on a daily basis for a total of about USD 6 billion.

Thanks to JPM Coin, settlements between business partners should take place immediately, ie much faster than the current standards of transfers. However, apart from accelerating the time of the transaction, what are the other goals for banks to introduce their own cryptocurrencies?

Could investment banks create a new type of collateral for transactions in the event of a possible strong loss of the USD dollar in the event of another global financial crisis connected with the currency crisis? Such a risk exists if the problem of growing public debt in the US is not resolved and banks in China cease to buy US Treasury bonds.

Do you agree with my opinion on this matter?

In view of the above, I am asking you the following question:

Please reply

I invite you to the discussion

Thank you very much

Best wishes

The improvement of specific risk management systems is particularly important in many areas of functioning of commercial business entities, financial institutions, public institutions as well as conducting investment, research and other projects.

How important is this is, for example, the global financial crisis that appeared in mid-September 2008, when specific financial, investment and credit risk management systems were not properly improved and the procedures of investment activity, including credit, were not carried out reliably, as well as customer service, and violation of business ethics in investment banks operating at the time and many other types of financial institutions and business entities.

please reply

Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG

I invite you to discussion and cooperation.

Thank you very much

Best wishes

Should the Federal Reserve Bank in the US be the main institution shaping and leading pro-growth active state interventionism?

In principle, YES, but it should be specified precisely the framework for a possible anti-crisis launch and implementation of the policy of active state intervention. The Federal Reserve Bank should continue to fulfill its current functions. In this respect, it is the most important institution in the US in terms of maintaining financial stability in the banking system and indirectly in the entire financial system. In addition, indirectly supports inter-branch, transactional, market, business and cross-border trade and capital flows. As the Federal Reserve advises on the issue of maintaining financial stability, it also translates into the entire US economy and also to a large extent on the entire global economy while the economy The US is recognized as a key global player. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve Bank, using its monetary policy instruments and the possibility of buying back lost commercial loans and junk securities, should focus on stabilizing the situation on the financial markets rather than on actively stimulating demand for securities, which may generate another global one in the long run. financial crisis. I examined this problem and described it in my scientific publications.

In view of the above, the current question is: Should the Federal Reserve Bank in the US be the main institution shaping and leading pro-growth active state interventionism?

Please, answer, comments.

I invite you to the discussion.

Dear Friends and Colleagues of RG,

I invite you to discussion and cooperation.

Best wishes

Dear Researchers, Academics, Friends,

When the global financial crisis began in the autumn of 2008, the central banks of some countries, primarily the Federal Reserve Bank in the USA and the European Central Bank in the European Union, undertook specific anti-crisis measures to reduce the negative effects of the financial crisis at the time.

In view of the above, how do you assess the role of central banking in the area of anti-crisis measures in the event of financial and currency crises?

Particularly important issues of central banking, including the role of central banks in the banking and financial systems of modern countries, the anti-crisis instruments of soft monetary policy used by central banks, the synergistic actions of central banks using the example of the FED, ECB and NBP, the mistakes made by central banks and the factors generating the escalation of financial crises, I described in the following publication:

And what is your opinion about it?

What is your opinion on this topic?

Please feel free to respond,

I invite you all to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Regards,

I would like to invite you to join me in scientific cooperation,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

What is your opinion about the impact of monetary policy on the stability of financial systems in the context of the analysis of the sources of the global financial crisis in 2008?

Please reply

Best wishes

Some economists, bankers, investment hedge funds, corporations are expecting a financial crisis by 2020, what do you think? Please elaborate the reasoning behind your answer.

In this case, there are two types of firms. Type A: Firms whose long term loan mature just before the financial crunch of August of 2007 and Type B: Firms whose long term loan mature just after the financial crunch of August of 2007. In order to analyze the impact of financial crisis on R&D Intensity, can I just take Type B firms and use panel data of year 2007 and 2009 and use First Difference Model to analyze the issue? Is it okay, statistically speaking, to employ this method?

I want to know the impact of financial crisis on R&D spending of a firm. Data regarding 438 firms will be selected for two years i.e. 2007 and 2009. Firms will be categorized into treatment and control groups. Half will be in treatment and remaining in control group. Which regression model will be suitable for this analysis?

I have auction data in $, for the same wine, over a certain period of time (4y).

On certain dates, there are different values, as different lots are sold multiple times for different prices.

I coded rating as a dummy variable, as it was unknown, when, and if the wine was treated with 100/100. Before rating = 0, after rating = 1.

The point of interest is, if the max. possible rating by a critic (100/100 or 20/20 or whatever) has a significant impact on the price, not the amount of impact.

As also wine prices may be sensitive to financial crisis I want to control for that. There is an index available for wine prices (Live-ex). I'm struggling, how to control for the crisis effect in my regression model. How would you include this in the model as a covariate?

What kind of scientific research dominate in the field of global financial crisis?

In my opinion, globalization is leading to the Integration of Business Cycles.

In this way, globalization may deepen economic crises, including the global financial and debt crisis. An example was the global financial crisis, which appeared in mid-September 2008.

At that time bankruptcy was announced by one of the largest investment banks in the world.

As a result of unreliable credit risk management procedures, billions of USD of financial losses have been generated.

It turned out that the unwritten rule no longer works, that "big can not fall". However, it is the emergence of ever larger international corporations and financial institutions that is one of the main determinants of the processes of economic globalization that have been progressing in recent years these processes continue.

(The continuation of these considerations can be found in the comments below).

Do you agree with my opinion?

Please reply

I conduct research in key aspects of this issue. The results of these tests are described in the following publications:

I invite you to discussion and cooperation.

Best wishes

My hypothesis is that from 1980s onwards a neoliberal consensus emerged, favouring a liberal trade agenda and prescribing a reduced role for state actors in governing and managing socio-economic development.

The financial crisis of 2009 and now the Covid-19 pandemic have brought the state back in, bailing out financial institutions with public funds and ordering the closure of large parts of national economies (whilst subsidising income losses and keeping businesses afloat) - seemingly inconceivable developments 15 years ago.

I would be grateful for both: a) literature recommendations and b) further examples of state legislative intervention ('activism' particularly with regards to sustainability regulation and laws).

Many thanks in advance!

Planiol went on to say (that every economic change is followed by a legal change), and the economic and financial crises that countries were exposed to proved the effectiveness of the economic crisis on the law. Just as the government can influence economic activity by using the financial and monetary policy tools to finance the deficit in its budget and alleviate the financial crisis, in addition to the role that instructions and laws play in regulating economic affairs that impose restrictions on unwanted activities and providing incentives and facilities for activities that serve the process of finding a solution to the financial crisis. .

The sudden decision to reduce the value of the Iraqi dinar from the Central Bank threw its weight on the obligations of debtors to implement their deferred obligations of paying installments for sales in foreign currency on the due date, and that resorting to methods of annulment or payment by failure to implement it leads to wasting the economic value of the contract and increases the burden of the affecting financial crisis On the national economy. Pursuant to the idea that the contract works are better than wasting it, the judge must strive to resolve the dispute of the contracting parties by finding alternative legal methods that do not lead to prejudice to the essence of the contract. In an attempt to find a solution to this problem, we chose the title of the research in this study.

There were economic's impact from financial crisis 2008 and also there are economic's impact from covid-19 in 2020. Knowing that some of the economies were not much affected, Consider only Emerging and Developed Economies in differentiating.

Since the early 80's, inflation started a downward slide that took it from mid teens to 0.

Over this period the world went through political, economic and financial crisis, stock market bubbles, geopolitical shifts in economic power and a pandemic but the trend remained unperturbed.

In 2021 markets are now betting on a return of inflation. What are the fundamental changes that could support these expectations?

The basic data used to determine the effectiveness of commercial banks are included in the banks' financial statements. these data relate to the bank's involvement in specific active transactions, necessary to determine the quality of the loan portfolio, to determine the quality of credit, operational, liquidity, debt, operational risk management processes, etc. An IT risk analysis should be added to this. In addition, financial statements also include data to calculate the deposit security ratio, profitability of individual categories of assets and use of available financial resources. This type of data should be combined with individual categories of estimated risk levels measured in correlation to the involvement in individual active operations. However, in the case of the analysis of the investment bank's effectiveness, it should additionally include an analysis based on risk assessment models for investment in derivatives and other capital market instruments. In this regard, many banking procedures were previously unreliably carried out which generated very high levels of credit risks and caused huge financial losses, eg in the Lehman Brothers investment bank, bankruptcy of this bank and the beginning of the global financial crisis in mid-September 2008.

I researched this problem and in my publications I confirmed that it is possible to combine the question of the reliability of banking procedures implemented in the area of risk management with sources of financial crises.

However, I would like to hear your opinion on this matter.

In view of the above, I am asking you the following question: Is it possible to combine the ethics of banking procedures in the field of banking operations with the sources of financial crises?

Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.

Are credit rating agencies currently reliably assessing the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions, including issuers of securities?

One of the factors that generated a high scale of negative aspects of the global financial crisis in 2008 was the practice of unreliably carried out assessments of the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions, including issuers of securities and certain financial instruments offered to individual clients by commercial banks. Have the financial supervisory authorities developed effective instruments to enforce the reliability of credit risk analysis procedures in investment banks and rating agencies? Do financial systems work more effectively than in 2008? Do credit rating agencies reliably carry out an assessment of the creditworthiness of national economies, enterprises and financial institutions?

Please, answer, comments.

I invite you to the discussion.

Best wishes