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My question is oriented for customizing clinical guidelines for developing countries. On this matter, I would like to know what steps and criteria are necessary, besides a comprehensive epidemiological analysis to create and approve customized clinical guidelines and protocols in developing countries, especially when international clinical practice guidelines do not align with the local epidemiological profile and population diversity?
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The creation and approval of local clinical guidelines in developing countries, where international guidelines are inadequate, involve several essential steps and criteria. These countries often face challenges such as resource limitations, epidemiological, cultural, and social differences, and lack of infrastructure, requiring an adapted process to their specific realities. The following are the main steps and criteria involved:
1. Identifying Needs and Local Context Analysis
  • Gap Identification: Assess whether the available international guidelines are not applicable or if there are specific gaps in the recommendations regarding the epidemiological, cultural, and economic conditions of the country.
  • Situational Analysis: Conduct an analysis of the local health conditions, including epidemiology, health system capabilities, available resources, and the culture and practices of the population. This step also involves collecting local data to understand the main health problems that need to be addressed and what adaptations are necessary.
2. Formation of the Development Committee
  • Selection of Experts: Form a committee composed of experts from different areas, including physicians, public health professionals, health economists, pharmacists, and community representatives. This helps ensure that the guideline development considers different perspectives.
  • Inclusion of Stakeholders: Include stakeholders such as representatives of non-governmental organizations, health managers, and patients to ensure their voices are heard and that the guidelines meet different needs.
3. Review of Scientific Evidence and Contextual Adaptation
  • Search and Assessment of Evidence: Review the available scientific literature, including international guidelines, to identify evidence-based recommendations that can be adapted. If there is no local evidence, it is important to seek comparable studies in similar contexts.
  • Cultural and Economic Adaptation: Assess the applicability of the recommendations in light of the economic resources, available infrastructure, local culture, and traditional health practices. The guidelines must be practical and feasible, considering the resource and infrastructure limitations of local health systems.
4. Development of Recommendations
  • Contextualizing Clinical Practice: Develop recommendations that are specific and relevant to local clinical practice. This involves considering the accessibility of medications, availability of technology, and the training of health professionals.
  • Grading Recommendations: Use a methodology such as GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) to grade the strength of recommendations, considering both the quality of evidence and applicability in the local context. Weak or flexible guidelines may be more appropriate in contexts where resources vary significantly.
5. Public Consultation and Peer Review
  • Stakeholder Consultation: Submit the guidelines for public consultation, including health professionals, managers, patients, and other stakeholders, to ensure that the recommendations are practical and accepted by those who will implement or be affected by them.
  • Technical Peer Review: Peer review by independent experts helps ensure that the recommendations are based on best practices and that any biases are identified and corrected.
6. Pilot Testing and Evaluation
  • Pilot Implementation: Before approval and large-scale dissemination, it is important to test the guidelines in a pilot area or health unit. This helps identify operational obstacles and implementation challenges that can be addressed before scaling up.
  • Impact Evaluation: Evaluate the effectiveness of the guidelines in the pilot, analyzing health outcomes, adherence of professionals, and resource impact. Feedback from health professionals and patients involved in the pilot is essential for making necessary adjustments.
7. Formal Approval
  • Submission to Regulatory Bodies: Submit the guidelines to health regulatory bodies or the Ministry of Health for formal approval. This involves ensuring that the guidelines align with current legislation and are integrated into the national health system.
  • Formalization of Guidelines: After approval, the guidelines must be formalized through regulations or norms, ensuring their legitimacy and integration into the public health system.
8. Dissemination and Training
  • Training of Professionals: Promote training of health professionals to ensure effective implementation. This includes in-person and distance training, as well as guides and support materials that facilitate guideline adoption.
  • Communication Campaigns: The guidelines should be disseminated through communication campaigns that reach all levels of the health system, from managers to grassroots professionals. Ensuring that the information is clear and accessible is essential to promote adherence.
9. Monitoring and Continuous Review
  • Implementation Monitoring: Monitor guideline implementation through performance indicators, such as professional adherence and clinical outcomes. This helps identify failures or barriers that may be hindering the application of recommendations.
  • Periodic Review and Update: Guidelines need to be regularly reviewed and updated, especially in contexts where health conditions or available resources can change rapidly. Periodic review also allows for the incorporation of new scientific evidence.
Necessary Criteria for Development and Approval
  1. Evidence-Based: The guidelines must be based on the best available evidence, adapted to the local context.
  2. Economic Feasibility: Recommendations must be financially viable, considering the limited resources available in developing countries.
  3. Cultural Acceptance: Guidelines must be culturally acceptable, considering local practices and beliefs that may affect patient and professional adherence.
  4. Stakeholder Participation: Including stakeholders throughout all stages is crucial to ensure that the guidelines are relevant and applicable in practice.
  5. Training and Human Resources: It is necessary to ensure that health professionals have the required training and that material resources are available to implement the guidelines.
The creation of local clinical guidelines in developing countries is a complex process that requires a collaborative approach adapted to the specific context of each country. Considering cultural differences, resource limitations, and the reality of the health system is essential to ensure that the guidelines are effective and contribute to improving the health indicators of the population.
4o
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Suppose that in January 1996, 1000 adult residents of a community accepted an invitation to be examined for hypothyroidism at a local clinic. Eight persons were found to have the disease, it was newly discovered in 3, and 5 were already under treatment. The same group was examined again in January 1998. Six new cases of hypothyroidism were discovered; of these, two had developed symptoms several months before and had been diagnosed and treated by their personal physicians. It was learned that of the 8 hypothyroid persons discovered at the 1996 examination, one had discontinued medication and died of heart disease in 1997. Otherwise, all persons examined in 1996 came to the second examination.
Using the above information, respond to the following questions – don’t forget to use the formulas already provided in this chapter:
  1. What was the prevalence of hypothyroidism, treated or, not, in the examined group in January 1996? In January 1998?
  2. What was the annual incidence of hypothyroidism in the group?
  3. What was the 2-year period prevalence of hypothyroidism?
  4. What was the case fatality rate of hypothyroidism?
  5. Of all cases detected at the two examinations; what proportion was newly discovered?
  6. If only 900 of the original 1000 persons were still living in the community and came to the examination in January 1998, would any of your answers to the questions above be changed? If so, how?
I would greatly appreciate your assistance in verifying my calculations and providing any insights you may have.
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Here are brief definitions for key epidemiology terms:
  1. Prevalence: The proportion of a population with a specific condition at a given time.
  2. Incidence: The number of new cases of a condition occurring in a specified period.
  3. Case Fatality Rate: The proportion of individuals with a condition who die from it within a specified period.
  4. Mortality Rate: The number of deaths in a population over a specific time period.
  5. Attack Rate: The proportion of individuals who become ill after exposure to a risk factor.
These measures help understand the frequency, severity, and impact of health conditions.
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A revolutionary phenotype is another species being delegated to reproducing its maker's kind. Then the delegated reproducer MAY eventually overthrow their before mentioned creator. Examples MAY be RNA overthrowing their maker proteins. Then DNA overthrowing their maker RNA. We avoid them by NOT delegating our reproduction to another species ,and or machine, and, more generally, using the precautionary principle. Simpler surgeries are less risky than the more complex ones.
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I agree with you
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What is the difference between limitation in recall and recall bias?
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Limitation in recall refers to the general inability of individuals to remember past events accurately or completely. This can be due to a variety of factors, including the passage of time, the complexity of the information, the individual’s cognitive abilities, or the context in which the information was encoded and stored.
Recall bias is a type of systematic error that occurs when there is a differential accuracy of recall between study groups. It typically arises in retrospective studies when participants with a particular outcome or exposure remember past events differently than those without the outcome or exposure.
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in the descriptive table, how would you interpret the p-values of the descriptives of your sample?
For instance, if there was a p < .001 between three levels of poverty, how would this be interpreted if the outcome was hypertension. There were significant differences in hypertension among the three levels of poverty?
I would greatly appreciate if you could give a better example so I can understand the idea of p-values in table 1.
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A p-value of less than .001 (p < .001) indicates that the observed differences in hypertension prevalence among the three levels of poverty are unlikely to have occurred by random chance alone. In other words, the results are statistically significant.
Interpretation: Since the p-value is less than .001, it suggests that there is strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis, which typically assumes no difference between groups. In this case, it would imply that there are indeed differences in the prevalence of hypertension across the three levels of poverty.
It would be beneficial to conduct additional tests to explore the nature and magnitude of these differences further. This could involve pairwise comparisons between specific poverty levels to identify which groups differ significantly from each other in terms of hypertension prevalence.
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(STATA)
Hello everybody.
I would like to build a Forest Plot graph that includes all this information from the table. I am unable to build the commands to include this information in the chart. I've tried to make other posts here, but I haven't been successful. Can someone help me?
I send the result of table for the chat.
I would like to set up the graph like this example:
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The graph you uploaded, and the code to produce it can be found on this page:
sysuse auto, clear
quietly regress price mpg trunk length turn if foreign==0
estimates store D
quietly regress price mpg trunk length turn if foreign==1
estimates store F
quietly regress weight mpg trunk length turn if foreign==0
estimates store D_weight
quietly regress weight mpg trunk length turn if foreign==1
estimates store F_weight
coefplot (D, label(Domestic)) (F, label(Foreign)), bylabel(Price) ///
|| (D_weight) (F_weight), bylabel(Weight) ///
||, drop(_cons) xline(0) byopts(xrescale) // scheme(s2color)
To get the same graphics scheme shown on the web page, remove the // before scheme(s2color). If you use the default graphics scheme for Stata 18 (the current version), the graph will look like the one I attached.
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As a dedicated researcher and professional in the field of mental and public health, I am enthusiastically seeking opportunities to pursue a Doctorate degree in various disciplines. My interests lie in the fields of Public Health, Health Policy, Healthcare Systems, Epidemiology, Population Health, Global Health, Health Promotion, Mental Health, Neuroscience, Addiction, Neuroscience, Aging and Psychiatry & Psychology. I am eager to contribute to the advancement of knowledge and make a meaningful impact in these fields through my doctoral studies.
As an international student, I am writing to inquire about the availability of PhD programs in public health at your esteemed university for the 2024 intake. As an aspiring public health professional, I am eager to pursue my academic goals at a renowned institution like yours.
I would be grateful if you could provide me with the following information:
  • Program details, research areas, and deadlines
  • Scholarships and financial aid availability
  • Application process and link
  • Admissions requirements and deadlines
  • Current projects and faculty research
  • Any recent program advertisements
Additionally, I would appreciate any updates or resources that you may have regarding the program's current status, faculty, and research activities.
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With kindness, this request is unlikely to help you get onto a PhD programme. Staff in university departments receive direct requests like this daily and do not have capacity to provide information they would expect the candidate to source for themselves.
I hope the following tips help you apply successfully.
1. Search for different Public Health departments that are undertaking research you're interested in. You can do that either department websites, or through literature searching on topics that would interest you and note where key scholars in public health are - they may be able to supervise you or know who might be open to supervision.
2. Using the questions you've asked (Program details, research areas, and deadlines; Scholarships and financial aid availability; Application process and link; Admissions requirements and deadlines; Current projects and faculty research; Any recent program advertisements) search university websites and also academic job websites like jobs.ac.uk. You can narrow down by topic (public health) and level of work/funding (PhD/postgraduate). The information you want to know will be included in funding calls, adverts for PhD candidates, or university web pages aimed at doctoral students.
3. Having found a potential funder/supervisor you can either apply directly if there is a specific opportunity advertised. Or you can approach a potential supervisor and ask them if they have spaces to supervise you. You should also include a brief abstract outlining what you'd like to study and a link to your CV. Do not include the list of questions you've put here and ask them to do that work for you as sadly it won't count in your favour. They will prioritise candidates who have sourced these answers themselves and know what they want to do and can demonstrate their proposed PhD would align with the supervisor/department goals and that the candidate is of a standard to fit with the university doctoral programme's requirements.
4. You ask "I would appreciate any updates or resources that you may have regarding the program's current status, faculty, and research activities". This is for you to find out, perhaps via this site, but also other academic groups, societies, literature searches and social media. They will prioritise candidates who are informed and aren't asking for updates that busy academics unfortunately don't have time to deliver individually. Follow academics on social media and most will be sharing this kind of update for you to appreciate.
5. If you're sending a request like this via email and are not getting a reply it'll be because you're asking them to help you apply, whereas they want to see what you can offer and where they might align. They won't answer requests like the one you've posted here because they are overwhelmed and don't have capacity. They may also perceive you as sending the same messages to many places, indicating there's nothing special about them but you're expecting free work. To avoid this, focus your requests and demonstrate why you'd be a good person for them to work alongside and support in your studies. Avoid ending messages with "Reply to this discussion" as it will appear demanding and rude (although I know that isn't what you intended).
6. Ensure things like funding, visas etc are either possible, sorted, or in the pipeline. It may be they can assist with a PhD place/supervision but the funding and visa aspect will be for you to sort. They may have funding, but they may not. Don't rely on them sorting that, again it's for you to find out about, or ideally apply for funded PhDs in Public Health. You can try places like Find a Phd for this https://www.findaphd.com
If you're based in a low or middle income country you can join Author Aid who have free training for scholars and can also give advice if you can't find answers to questions that need researching as part of your PhD application process. It's a nice friendly community too. https://www.authoraid.info/en/
Hope that helps and feel free to ask if anything isn't clear. TL;DR do the majority of this research yourself to present your ideas as an outstanding candidate. Get help with friends/colleagues along the way if you find some of those tasks challenging. Good luck!
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I am wondering which term is more appropriate for use in titles when discussing a group within a larger category: 'among' or 'in'?
For example:
'Prevalence of sleep disorders among children with autism'
'Prevalence of sleep disorders in children with autism'
Could you explain the difference between using 'among' and 'in' in such contexts and advise which option is more suitable for title usage?
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Both "among" and "in" can be appropriate in titles when discussing a group within a larger category, but the choice depends on the specific context and emphasis of the title. Here's a brief overview of the optimal usage for each term:
Among:
Use "among" when you want to emphasize the idea of being part of a larger group or set, but not necessarily confined to it. This term suggests that the group you're referring to is integrated or exists within a broader context.
Example title: "Patterns of Communication Among Adolescents in Urban Schools"
In:
Use "in" when you want to emphasize the idea of being contained or located within a specific category or context. This term suggests a more specific or bounded relationship between the group and the larger category.
Example title: "Factors Affecting Academic Achievement in Students with Disabilities"
In summary, consider the nuances of meaning and emphasis you want to convey in your title when choosing between "among" and "in." If you want to highlight the group's integration within a larger context, use "among." If you want to emphasize their specific location or relationship within a category, use "in."
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I have a few questions regarding that topic:
1. What technologies, both existing and in development, can enhance early detection or improve monitoring of disease spread?
2. What are all the possible environmental impacts that could be relevant to the issue?
3. What social, health, and economic impacts are pertinent to the issue?
Thank a lot,
Itay
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If one biological male repopulated the Earth with 5 billion birthing people, what diseases could spread? How?
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  1. The human genome is young: shared blocks of DNA are large and there has not been enough time to scramble them to randomness.
  2. The human population came from a single source: most blocks are shared among all world populations.
  3. The human genome is falling apart: deletions tend to NOT be shared among populations, but are unique to subpopulations (this is further evidence for the youth of the genome and that we came from a single source population in the recent past). Source: Genetics-primal-couple (creation.com)
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How to interpret negative total and direct effects and positive indirect effect? all are significant in mediation analysis
X --- M --- Y
Total Effect: Negative (-0.42)
Indirect Effect 1: Positive (0.03)
Indirect Effect 2: negative (-0.22)
Indirect Effect 3: positive (0.06) - Not significant
Direct Effect: Negative (-0.29)
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Bruce Weaver I'm sorry, I forgot to include the other indirect effects (which were negative, significant). Yes, the sum of these effects + direct effect is the total effect.
Total Effect: Negative (-0.42)
Indirect Effect 1: Positive (0.03)
Indirect Effect 2: negative (-0.22)
Indirect Effect 3: positive (0.06) - Not significant
Direct Effect: Negative (-0.29)
Now, can you tell me how I could interpret this positive indirect effect in the face of the total and direct positive effects?
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How can I interpret these two examples below in the mediation analysis? Help me
1) with negative indirect and total effect, positive direct effect
Healthy pattern (X)
Sodium Consumption (M)
Gastric Cancer (Y)
Total Effect: Negative (-0.29)
Indirect Effect: Negative (-0.44)
Direct Effect: Positive (0.14)
Mediation percentage: 100%
2) With total and direct negative effect, positive indirect effect
Healthy pattern (x)
Sugar consumption (m)
Gastric Cancer (Y)
Total Effect: Negative (-0.42)
Indirect Effect: Positive (0.03)
Direct Effect: Negative (-0.29)
Mediation percentage: 10.3%
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The interpretations depends on all aspects either positive nor negative.simply advantages and disadvantages .
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I would like to hire a statistician to analyze epidemiological data: calculate odds ratios, chi-squares, perform regressions and advise on whether there are other analyses that can be done with the data. Can you recommend someone?
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Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine , Global Health Trials Unit can offer this service
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How often does inbreeding correlate positively with eugenics? Why? My answer: Maybe not often because the last derivative population(Europeans) is not the most inbreed.
Sources
Khlat M, Khoury M. Inbreeding and diseases: demographic, genetic, and epidemiologic perspectives. Epidemiol Rev. 1991;13:28-41. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.epirev.a036072. PMID: 1765114. “PIP: The demographic and quantitative genetic aspects of consanguineous marriages are reviewed before epidemiologic principles are applied to the hundreds of studies reviewed, and 3 in particular. Consanguineous unions range from cousin-cousin to more distant relatedness, and their prevalence varies by culture. Prevalence is highest in Arab countries, followed by India, Japan, Brazil and Israel. They are most common in lower educational and socioeconomic groups, the traditionally religious, and the early married, but are declining with modernization”(Khlat 1991).
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Holistic healing approach is the most beneficial for all health issues.
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There are many benefits to vaccinating the population against HPV, such as reducing the incidence of CIN2+ related to vaccine genotypes. And those who receive the HPV vaccine will experience an advantage in the transformation of HPV genotypes. How will this HPV-related epidemiological feature change in the future? Perhaps it is related to the original HPV prevalence characteristics of the population in that region.
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No cervical cancer cases in HPV-vaccinated women
A new study has found that no cases of cervical cancer have been detected in young women who have been fully-vaccinated as part of the HPV immunisation programme.
The Public Health Scotland (PHS) research said the HPV (human papillomavirus virus) vaccine was "highly effective" in preventing the development of the cancer...
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Evaluate and interpret the existing epidemiological evidence on the relationship between millet consumption and diabetes mellitus. Summarize key findings from relevant studies, distinguish between different types of millets, and discuss the strength of evidence supporting the potential of millets in diabetes prevention.
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It is possible to conduct a meta-analysis of the studies which examine the association of millet consumption and diabetes mellitus, if the studies that have been retrieved by a comprehensive searching process is not too heterogeneous. If, however, there is insufficient number of studies which can possibly be retrieved by a comprehensive searching process, then it is possible to conduct other epidemiological studies which aims to examine the level of association.
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Epidemiology of infectious diseases
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Some of the key challenges gathered:
1. Infection Control: Infectious diseases can be highly contagious, and strict infection control measures are crucial to prevent the spread of the disease among patients, healthcare workers, and the broader community. Critical care and anesthesia units need to have robust infection controlprotocols in place, including appropriate isolation procedures, personal protective equipment (PPE) usage, and disinfection practices. Balancing the need for effective infection control with the provision of necessary care can be challenging.
2. Transmission Risk: Healthcare workers, including critical care and anesthesia providers, are at an increased risk of exposure to infectious diseases due to close contact with infected patients, aerosol-generating procedures, and potential exposure to bodily fluids. Adequate training, adherence to infection control protocols, and availability of appropriate PPE are essential to minimize the risk of transmission to healthcare professionals.
3. Resource Allocation: Infectious disease outbreaks can strain healthcare resources, including critical care beds, ventilators, medications, and specialized equipment. The increased demand for these resources during outbreaks may require careful allocation and prioritization of resources to ensure optimal care for critically ill patients. Ethical considerations, such as fair distribution and maximizing the overall benefit, may come into play when making resource allocation decisions.
4. Diagnostic Challenges: Prompt and accurate diagnosis of infectious diseases is crucial for appropriate patient management. However, some infectious diseases may present with nonspecific symptoms or have overlapping clinical features, making diagnosis challenging. Access to rapid and reliable diagnostic tests is essential to facilitate timely and accurate diagnosis, which can impact treatment decisions and infection control measures.
5. Staffing and Workforce Management: Infectious disease outbreaks can lead to increased patient loads and workforce demands, potentially straining the healthcare system. Adequate staffing levels, including trained critical care and anesthesia providers, are essential to meet the increased demand for services without compromising patient care. Ensuring the physical and mental well-being of healthcare providers is crucial to sustain the workforce during challenging times.
6. Evolving Knowledge and Guidelines: Infectious diseases often present new challenges and require healthcare providers to stay updated on the latest knowledge, guidelines, and best practices. Rapidly evolving evidence and changing recommendations can pose challenges in providing consistent and evidence-based care. Continuous education and training are essential to ensure healthcare providers are equipped with the most current information and can adapt their practices accordingly.
These challenges highlight the importance of preparedness, infection control measures, collaboration across healthcare teams, and ongoing education and training to effectively provide critical care and anesthesia services in the context of infectious diseases.
Hope it helps
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Epidemiology of infectious diseases?
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infectious disease outbreaks have a huge impact on health systems and the well-being of the people affected in addition to responders themselves.
- First of all, they cause disruption to other health services provided. For example, during COVID-19, a lot of services for chronic diseases were disrupted and the focus was on more acute cases of the infectious disease.
- additionally, the public health measures taken, such as quarantine and physical distancing can have an impact on mental health.
That is why other aspects of health and well-being such as mental health should be considered during infectious disease outbreaks.
I published a paper about how mental health interventions could be integrated into outbreak response.
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Since Titmus and Esping-Andersen, we have always categorized three types of welfare regimes among developed countries. Could we expand this to Asian, Afrian and Latin-america countries? Would such continents have any kind of welfare?
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Share of informal workers is an indicator of "not enough" for defining a separate welfare state model. As, for example, the share of unemployed, the share of high-tech employees, etc.
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Does anyone know how to run Mediation analysis in SPSS version 25 software????
My research is a case-control study, the exposure being: dietary pattern; outcome: gastric cancer; mediator: energy (kcal).
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Thanks for clarifying. Why do you think you need to carve g/day into tertiles? Carving quantitative variables into categories can cause many problems. See this page for more info:
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When you read an epidemiological research paper what are some of the red flags you encounter in phrasing, statistical tests used, and glossing over controlling for confounding? For example, when you evaluate the COVID reports or vaccine research what are key elements that if not present call into question the research or if included raise doubts?
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So basically you're discussing the use of observational data to answer causal questions (which are often best answered using randomized trials). In that case, the most important thing will be bias (selection bias, measurement error, and confounding bias). I will specifically look for the detail of study design and statistical analyses on this part, i.e., how the authors came up with measures to mitigate bias when they recruit and follow up participants, or if this is a retrospective study, how they can confirm the validity of the measurements.
Confounding is often seen as the most important problem in answering causal questions, so of course I'll look for the methods used to control for confounding. As you said in your comment, it may be multiple regression where the potential confounders are selected based on a DAG (or DAGs), some causal inference method such as propensity score or instrumental variable, or the confounders are controlled by design (restriction, matching, etc). However, I believe the use of one method is not sufficient; I'll read the description, too, to make sure that their actual implementation is valid. Unfortunately, you'll see that not all papers described their DAG in detail (e.g., how they came up with the variables and the relationships between variables); some didn't even publish their DAG. Or for propensity score methods, they didn't show the diagnostic results (SMDs, Love plot, histogram of weights).
It's hard to summarize everything I'll look for in a few keywords, but yeah, probably "did they handle bias properly?".
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Dear ResearchGate Community,
I am currently working on a research paper titled "A Metamathematical Approach to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Model: The Case of the Hong Kong Flu in New York City". The study aims to explore the application of metamathematical methods to the SIR model, with a specific focus on the Hong Kong Flu outbreak in New York City.
The research will involve a comprehensive analysis of historical epidemiological data, the development of advanced mathematical models, and the application of these models to understand the dynamics of the Hong Kong Flu outbreak. The goal is to provide a deeper understanding of the outbreak's dynamics and potentially contribute to the development of more effective strategies for managing similar outbreaks in the future.
I am reaching out to the ResearchGate community to seek potential collaborators who have expertise in the following areas:
  1. Metamathematics and its application to epidemiological modeling.
  2. The SIR model and its variants.
  3. Historical epidemiology, particularly related to the Hong Kong Flu.
  4. Public health policy and its intersection with mathematical modeling.
If you are interested in contributing to this research or know someone who might be, please feel free to reach out. I am open to collaboration with researchers at all stages of their careers, from graduate students to seasoned professionals.
I believe that this research could significantly contribute to our understanding of disease dynamics and the role of mathematical modeling in public health. I look forward to hearing from interested parties and discussing a potential collaboration.
Best regards,
Athanasios Paraskevopoulos
MSc student in Mathematics
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@athanasios paraskevopoulus reach me at Doris.Nyamwaya@mrcuganda.org
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I'm Sherif M Hammad, a student in the 4th year of the faculty of medicine Beni-Suef University, highly interested in medical research, especially Public health & epidemiology. I'm looking forward to participating in feuter primary research or even meta-analysis as I have essential experience with data analysis (python-pandas-excel). I also have an *idea for a Cross-sectional study but I cannot develop it into a published paper due to lack of research experience. HOPEFULLY, I want to start my research journey with someone who has experience in clinical research *idea=Social state and antibiotic misuse My regards. Sherif.
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Hello Sherif Hammad , it is very interesting to read your question and feel your enthusiasm to start your academic journey. This question reminded me of myself back in 2018. I will provide you with some tips that helped me to be involved in the research community until now:
  1. Cochrane Organization with all its platforms: https://crowd.cochrane.org/, https://engage.cochrane.org/, https://training.cochrane.org/interactivelearning, and others... these were the kick off point that helped me to learn more and network with many international parties.
  2. Networking via ResearchGate and LinkedIn, .. not only by following but by sharing my research interest with many colleagues, .. exactly as you started doing..
  3. Deeper learning about biostatistics, and fortunately you started this path as well
  4. Lastly, don't hesitate to ask, .. this will save you years of struggling alone.
With pleasure, I can support you in your journey and I believe you have more capabilities than what you think.
Best wishes for you
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I am looking for good references for conducting causal mediation analysis using time-to-event data. If you are aware of available code (SAS, specifically), that would be very helpful as well.
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the nature of variable, maybe... you can to try do this in JAMOVI, "medmod" pack.
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I am currently completing the synthesis for a systematic review on the impact of the use of wireless devices and mental health. The systematic review looks at quantitative studies only. Due to the heterogeneity of outcomes (depression, anxiety, externalizing behaviours etc) and study designs - we have decided not to run a meta-analysis, nor we will produce forest plots. However, I feel that a harvest plot would be an attractive and intelligible method of summarizing our findings, and would complement a narrative sythesis. See below for what I mean by a harvest plot
Here is a great example of what I am trying to produce:
I am very familiar with using R / Python for data visualisation purposes, but I am initially stumped about how I might produce an attractive and aesthetically pleasing plot, short of stodgily moving rectangles around in a word / publisher doc. Can anyone suggest a package / software / website / any method that help me?
Much much much appreciation if you can!
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It is probably too late for the original poster, but blog post on how to create a havest plot in R using ggplot (which I contributed to) is available at https://medium.com/@cxiao94/creating-harvest-plots-in-r-75fb45c8f393 Hopefully the code used there can be adapted to your needs.
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We need to check the confounding effect and effect modifier when we are trying to finalize our model selection. So sometimes literature review can give us some ideas about the confounded effect and effect modifier while working certain topic. It we find the effect modifier then we need to do certain analysis and present the results in certain ways. If we find the confounding then we need to present the analysis differently compared to effect modifier.
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Les mesures des variables doivent à mon avis tenir compte des conditions de la station où sont repérés les paramètres naturels (à décrire rigoureusement). Bonne chance!
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What is the likelihood of another pandemic in the future as estimated by the predictive analyses carried out, based on computerised, multi-faceted, big data mathematical modelling?
To what extent does climate change, progressive global warming, climate change across continents, increased environmental pollution and the impact of toxic waste pollution on human health, etc. increase the likelihood of another pandemic in the future as estimated by the predictive analyses carried out, based on computerised, multi-faceted, big data mathematical modelling?
On 4 May 2023, the World Health Organisation lifted the state of global epidemiological emergency associated with Covid-19. The WHO declared that Covid-19 no longer posed a public health, human health threat on a global scale. The WHO introduced the state on 30 January 2020, and after more than three years, the state was lifted. But the key point is that it was lifted as an epidemiological risk 'only' on a global scale and not as a direct recommendation for individual countries. Well, in individual countries, the levels of infection and mortality, although significantly lower than in 2020, are still occurring as part of local, successive, seasonal increases in infection with specific types of relentlessly emerging successive virus strains, and are significantly different in terms of the comparative analyses carried out. Globally, almost 7 million people have died according to Covid-19 death statistics and in more than 90 per cent of cases in combination with the presence of various co-morbidities. In Poland, these deaths were 120 000 with 5.5 million diagnosed infections and more than 250 000 excess deaths. In Poland, the Covid-19 epidemiological emergency is due to be lifted at the end of June 2023. In relation to this, is there still research being conducted by the WHO on the secondary effects of the Covid-19 pandemic? The 2018 Spanish flu was an avian flu that passed to humans. This was not the only such case in which a virus that causes disease in specific animal species started to infect and cause specific diseases in humans as well. It may have been similar with the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus, because before it started infecting humans it had previously developed in certain bat species, among others. It is likely that this virus acquired new features after the modification of its genome applied in laboratories, its effect was enhanced, it escaped from the laboratory and also started infecting humans. According to mathematical models of forecasting, which take into account population growth, increased population density in urban areas, low levels of sanitation in many parts of the world, low levels of availability of clean water in many economically poorer countries, the rate of creation of new strains of influenza viruses, coronaviruses, RSV, etc., which attack humans and certain animal species, the progressive process of global warming, climate change on different continents, increased environmental pollution and the impact of toxic waste pollution on human health, etc., it is likely that the virus will become more widespread in the future.
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:
To what extent does climate change, the progressive process of global warming, climate change across continents, the increase in environmental pollution and the impact of toxic waste pollution on human health, etc., increase the probability of the appearance of another pandemic in the future as estimated by the predictive analyses carried out based on computerised, multifaceted, data-intensive mathematical modelling?
What is the likelihood of another future pandemic estimated from ongoing predictive analytical work based on computerised multi-faceted mathematical modelling with big data?
What is the likelihood of another pandemic occurring in the future?
What do you think about this topic?
What is your opinion on this subject?
Please respond,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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With nature being exploited, global warming, threat of bioterrorism, Such Pandemics is not far from reality, one health approach is the solution. the article is attached
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What fundamental concerns need to be kept in mind when we compute research analysis in the fields of Statistics, Biostatistics, and Epidemiology? Will we consider only significant variable for our model building? Will we think about the biological factors, whether it is substantial or not ? Is it necessary to check the assumptions for different models as some papers do not mention them? Were interaction terms always essential to check?
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Samuel Oluwaseun Adeyemo Thank you for your explanation. Moreover, Sometimes we need to think about the confounding effect and effect modifiers. Most of the paper articles do not consider them. Is there any impact of these in the final model?
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Dear all,
It is well known that matching can increase the statistical power of the study if the matching variable is a strong confounder that is strongly related to both 1) exposure and 2) outcome. So, as expected, no statistical power is gained if the matching variable is a weak confounder.
In detail, 1) if the matching variable is slightly or not related to exposure, but is strongly related to the outcome, very small statistical power is gained. While, 2) if the matching variable is slightly or not related to the outcome, but is strongly related to the exposure, statistical power may even be reduced.
I do not know the reason for the last sentence. According to the articles "https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/68.3.577" and "https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113475", I have made a series of assumptions; however, I need some further clarification.
I would be grateful if you kindly let me know your opinions.
Kind regards,
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Recently, I found some parasitic eggs in a patient's urine sample and the patient is taking immunosuppressive drugs for SLE.
When a microscopic examination of the urine found the parasitic eggs and I think it is schistosome eggs and not Entrobiasis infections but the epidemiological conditions, it is impossible to Schistosome eggs.
I kept the sample in 70% ethanol.
How to confirm further investigation and what are the possible parasitic infection?
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The parasite is diagnosed by the detection of Schistosoma eggs in the urine through stool and biopsy materials. The most appropriate method to detect the eggs in the urine is by examining the last part of the urine which passed in the afternoon after being centrifuged
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The development of AI models such as ChatGPT and what will happen later in the field of epidemiology.
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The following is the answer from ChatGPT:
As an AI language model, I can assist you in various ways in the field of epidemiology. Here are a few examples:
  1. Data analysis: I can help you analyze large sets of data to identify trends, patterns, and correlations that can help you understand the spread of diseases and the factors that influence it. I can also help you identify risk factors, track outbreaks, and monitor the effectiveness of public health interventions.
  2. Modeling and simulation: I can assist you in building models and simulations that can help you predict the spread of diseases and evaluate the impact of different interventions. This can help you identify the most effective strategies for controlling outbreaks and preventing the spread of diseases.
  3. Literature review: I can help you perform a comprehensive review of the existing literature on a particular disease or public health issue. This can help you identify knowledge gaps, understand the current state of research, and develop new research questions.
  4. Natural language processing: I can assist you in extracting meaningful insights from unstructured data sources such as social media, news articles, and medical records. This can help you monitor public sentiment, identify emerging trends, and track disease outbreaks in real time.
  5. Chatbot: I can be programmed to answer questions related to epidemiology and public health. This can help you provide accurate information to the public and address their concerns and questions in a timely manner.
Please let me know if there's anything specific I can help you with.
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I would be very careful and be sure of what Data is being released and in what form, be it sanitized, even low numbers with a small geographical area presents with potential identification of individuals. I can't stress enough, given the opaque closed source nature of the even supposedly "Open AI", which is far from.bring the open platform. It is increasingly attractive to be "early adopters" of potentially disruptive technologies and those which have enormous promise but the unbreakable rules regarding confidentially and the protection of the patients, must be given a absolute full review against the baseline ethical principles upon which our effectivness is alway being hit with data breaches and disclosures. This causes stress, ansgt, and distrust of doctors and the medical/pharmaceutical complex and encourages conspiracy theories and groups of people who have run from the people tryinf to help them (ground epidemiologist in the near recent and long Ebola Outbreak in Western Africa. A lot of care and trust management efforts should be out into place to restore the population's trust in caregivers. As a whole these caregivers, doctors, and scientists do have the public and individual patient's best interests and seek to achieve positive outcomes. But be remainded the Trust is earned. Is easy to lose, and though it can be regained, it is s very long and difficult path. After the mistakes, folly, and subsequent failure of the trusts relationship during the above epidemic. A team I was working with attempted to solve the inherent intrusive nature of contact tracing in a world of mass surveillance as potential contects, so afraid due to misinformation and conspiracy, in part due to lack of effective health emergency communications, were left with a void of reliable Informationen. This provides a door so big a train of conspiracy went driving through delivering a flood of outlandish claims (one bring them that vaccines contain aluminum preservtibe which was an "antenna" to communicate with Bill Gates. This came from the mount of a board certified pediatrician. The already present iron in you blood is a far better antenna. The point being as we seek to use technology, and new ones, careful attension must be paid to understanding exactly how it works and effectivly communicating thst to the public before people are left to make assumptions and suppositon. We envisioned an advanced contract tracing method using the tools of mass surveillance but wrapping the how, when, and where in a Blockchain encryption, where the system would only deliver "contacts" not the potentially private and and sources with high abuse potential concealed and not available for any other purpose, nor available for backward looking research, to rapidly increee the the Context trwcing, protecting vulnerable people, the vulnerable boots on the ground, and removing any potential for the tempting misuse of the data for anything other then that which exempts said data from the definition of "human research" while removing the potential for pressure to be applied by a local government, law enforcement, and other govermental uses outside the scope of the U.S..Common Rule exempting "forward looking only" epidemiological contact tracing from the definition of "research of human subjects" which allows the more rapid adoption of new technologies and surveillance without sacrificing speed, ground staff safety and equally important and often not well communicated the person's individual privacy concerns. The latter can and had shown to habe the most delirious effects on trust, opens the door for misinformation, and harms the whole effort increasing overall speed and efficacy. So, tred but tred carefully on there new tools especially where the functioning and data collection by the holders of sources code is being treated as a national security matter. This is counter productive and csnlewd to very serious loss of freut end confidece levels so well illuminated in the past and ongoing pandemic was vaccine roll out. It was shocking that the nation-states allowed the non-disclosure of the ingredients. Equally, the roll out of a human trial, which was a phase I (one) through 3 (three), multi-center clinical trials with seriously difficent state supported lack of "informed consent" without just bring honest with the population shows a serious communications failure and opened the door of the absurd commentary about aluminum antennas and the hundred other equally disturbing conspiracies which were in fact the failure of those running the otogrems to coordinate and communicate well with the public as one of the several ways to diffuse conspiracy and to bolster trust. Require the full disclosure by the ChatPT (and I hesitate strongly as a Philosophy graduate to use common anthropomorphisms thrown around without meaning or understandinf of A.I., M.L., Neural Networks, and Quantum anything). Be careful in your buzz word chocies as all of the above rest on shaky if not complete nonsensical foundations.
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It is believed that between a quarter and a third of the world's population is latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The importance of latency is reflected in a huge drive by research funding organizations to study the biology and epidemiology of latent tuberculosis infection and to create medications that particularly treat latent infection, with the goal of eradicating tuberculosis globally. Mycobacterium tuberculosis' incubation period lasts around 2-3 weeks following the first infection. The objective is to reduce the incubation period so that the patient may be diagnosed and treated as soon as possible.
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Yes there's
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I'm doing an analysis
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I'm curious to know why you asked? Is there some reason that this might not be the right thing to do in your case, or did someone simply tell you that you shouldn't do it?*
*My attitude to people who tell you that you shouldn't do something is summed up by Terry Pratchett : Nothing is really worth doing unless there is somebody, somewhere, who would much rather you didn't.
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Dear All,
I have a question.
Significant heterogeneity is observed between descriptive studies in the meta-analysis for the prevalence or incidence of a given disease in countries around the world. Also, since the amount of prevalence and incidence depend on many factors, so what are the benefits of their pooled means, and what do they represent?
I would be grateful if you please give your feedback.
Best regards,
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Dear Dr. Ekeagwu,
I am sorry for my delayed reply.
Thank you for spending your worth time on feedback, which not only assisted me in reaching acceptable answers but also made me look at the issue from a different perspective. However, I do not agree with your points 2 and 5 so much.
In general, I think it is true that due to significant heterogeneity, the pooled prevalence or incidence may not be considered too correct and logical; however, sometimes the policymaker wants to make a series of comparisons between countries on a broad level or make decisions supposedly for the provision of medicine based on the results from pooled means. Therefore, pooled prevalence or incidence can maybe be useful in this regard.
Best,
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Dear all,
i am currently working on an SLR for a burden of disease for school work. i am however thinking of changing it into a meta analysis to best capture the epidemiological data (prevalence) and also the costs of management.
Can anyone help me with the best statistical analyses for such a topic and if possible how to go about it. thank you
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There are several statistical analyses that could be useful for a systematic review or meta-analysis of epidemiological and cost data. The specific analysis that is most appropriate will depend on the research question being addressed and the type and format of the data available.
Some common statistical analyses that may be useful in a systematic review or meta-analysis of epidemiological and cost data include:
  1. Risk ratio (RR) or odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI): These measures can be used to estimate the association between an exposure (e.g. a risk factor) and an outcome (e.g. a disease).
  2. Weighted mean difference (WMD) and 95% CI: This measure can be used to compare the mean values of a continuous outcome between different groups.
  3. Cost-effectiveness analysis: This type of analysis compares the costs and effectiveness of different interventions or interventions strategies in order to determine the most cost-effective option.
  4. Subgroup analysis: This analysis involves stratifying the data according to specific characteristics (e.g. age, sex, etc.) and analyzing the data within each subgroup separately.
  5. Sensitivity analysis: This analysis involves re-analyzing the data using different assumptions or methods to assess the robustness of the results.
  6. Funnel plot: This graphical tool can be used to assess the presence of publication bias in a meta-analysis.
It is important to carefully consider the statistical analysis that is most appropriate for your systematic review or meta-analysis, as the choice of analysis can greatly affect the results and conclusions of the study. It is also recommended to consult with a statistician or other expert in statistical analysis when planning and conducting your study.
I hope this helps.
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This is a blur area in the bibliography I study, and the numbers used are mostly rounded up (N=500, N=1000 etc) without any other explanation. What would you suggest?
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If your main goal is to estimate values in the larger population, then the formula using the estimated variance makes the most sense. Alternatively, if your goal is to test specific hypotheses, then G*Power might be better suited to your objective.s
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There is scientific evidence of mRNA and vectorial vaccines' genotoxicity.
mRNA vaccines induce immunodepression increasing vulnerability to communicable and non-communicable diseases ( cancer) and have a high rate of serious adverse effects, including death. Many otherwise healthy young people have died
Scientific evidence is supported by epidemiological data that show an increase in the infection risk from VOC in vaccinated people and in oncologic patients.
Moreover, I suggest reading Christine Cotton's expertise about the mRNA vaccines' unreliability.
In Florida, there was an 83% increase in mortality in vaccinated people.
We proposed on Research gate an International Research Manifesto for the withdrawal of mRNA and vectorial vaccines. if you agree you could sign it for building an international pressure lobby and there is an open discussion on Researchgate about this topic.
Reference on Research Gate
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My openion about mRNA and vectorial AntiCovid vaccines that they play an important role in facing pandemic in the world so any withdrawal must be with more effective and cheaper one
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Canada for example, has a population of about 35 million people. Suppose there are 10 million cell phones (probably there are more) at an average cost of about $1,000 (probably the average price is less). So that is an infrastructure of about $10 billion. Plus the cell networks, many billions more. We already have an installed infrastructure that would permit the mass aggregation of data. Now add a cheap plug-in cell phone dongle with free app software paid for by the government for the whole country that can manipulate the dongle and which can be improved. Then have everybody self test, with the app uploading the data. Test everyone in one day. Over and over again. This takes advantage of the expensive but existing cell phone and network infrastructure. Is it possible?
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Lin, H., Yu, W., A. Sabet, K. et al. Ferrobotic swarms enable accessible and adaptable automated viral testing. Nature 611, 570–577 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05408-3
describes a palm sized printed circuit board-based programmable platform for viral testing.
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In Mexico, as in other latitudes, the measures against COVID-19 have decreased and the governments and health entities of each country have applied their own criteria as a result of what they know and that their population tends to respond epidemiologically speaking. Do you think that the WHO should make the declaration that the pandemic has ended?
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The coronavirus situation is still easing worldwide with a weekly 18% cases and 23% deaths drop, though Asia is experiencing a surge in infections, especially in Japan and South Korea, amid two new Omicron subvariants.
Thus it will be too early to say Pandemic is ended.
Worldwide COVID-19 cases decline by 18% | Al Bawaba
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Hello Scholars,
I am an undergraduate at the University of Cross River State, Nigeria currently pursuing a microbiology program. For familiarity and enhanced understanding of the course, I wish to seek recommendations on the virtual/simulation laboratory software that would be very helpful to me and my colleagues. With my interest in research too, I will be pleased if a research simulator is recommended to help widen my understanding of Microbiological research.
Your recommendations would go a long way to significantly contribute to my academic career as well as my colleagues.
Thank you
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Thermofisher Scientific has a virtual lab training option on cell culture. You can check here: https://www.thermofisher.com/bd/en/home/global/forms/cell-culture-basics.html
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I am working on a rare case of mesothelioma and I am interested in knowing the epidemiology, especially in African countries
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malignant mesothelioma in India is quite rare, according to Indian council of medical research, cancer registry the reported incidence is 0.05-0.08 and 0.05-0.1per 100,000 in men and women respectively
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Dear All,
My current field is Epidemiology. Also, I am highly interested in the field of Nutrition Sciences and looking forward to increasing my knowledge in that.
I would be thankful if you could let me know whether there has been any recommendation beyond the relevant reading and collaborating with nutritionists in academic writing.
Kind regards,
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Zinc, copper, manganese, and selenium are main trace elements that have protective roles against radiation-induced DNA damages. Trace elements in the free salt forms have protective effect against cell toxicity induced by oxidative stress, metal-complex are more active in the attenuation of ROS particularly through superoxide dismutase mimetic activity. Manganese-complexes in protection of normal cell against radiation without any protective effect on cancer cells
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Is there any diseases which has high YLL and high YLD, high YLL but low YLD and low YLL and high YLD. Please give me some example and why it happens.
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i think acute fatal disease will have High YLL but low YLD, whereas NCDs will have high YLD with YLL may be high or low. Chronic diseases like Polio / Leprosy will have high YLD with low aYLL
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I am collecting data from multiple published epidemiology studies. I want to represent the overall prevalence data by a single value. For example, if prevalence of disease is 30% in one region and 20% in another, how should I calculate the overall prevalence of the disease? Can I take an average [(30+20)/20=25%], or is there another way to collate such data?
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Better to do a pooled prevalence, with some sampling weightings, or a population weighted meta prevalence . You can also do an inverse variance weighted prevalence
ie p = sigma (NiPi)/sigma (Ni) where p = meta prev, Ni = population in study i,
Pi = prevalence in study i.
or p = sigma (Pi/var Pi)/sigma (1/varPi)
for more details see attached papers.
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Dear researched,
I read a paper from one well known publisher. Paper is about gestational diabetees. At the age 45+ they found 35 cases of diabetes and 90 women without it. They wrote: ''Te incidence of GDM at age≥45years was as high as 38.89%.'' I would suggest 28%? What do you think?
In addition, I have some question. If something increase from 50 to 200, that is 4 times increase?
What about folds? In my opinion, folds are not same as times? The next article stated in abstract: ''neutralizing antibodies were increased by 10.3–28.9 times at 4 weeks after the booster'' and than in results ''eutralizing antibody GMTs then increased during the 4 weeks after the booster dose until day 237 by 28.9, 10.3, and 11.9-fold". Was this written correctly?
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Let's abolish ‘fold higher’ and ‘fold increase’ from our lexicon
Then there is this from Wiktionary [4]: “Some writers and speakers use misconstructions like ‘an increase by twofold’, which they believe to mean the same thing as ‘a twofold increase’. But these two things logically mean ‘an increase by 200% of the original amount’ and ‘an increase to 200% of the original amount’, respectively. This practice is not only ambiguous but grammatically poor; it misuses -fold by using it as a noun”.
My opinion of the issue is reflected best by the blog and responding comments on John Petrie's LifeBlag [5]. The blog in part says the following: “As far as the word ‘fold’ goes, I thought its meaning seemed clear to me, but its meaning as used seems different, and I would typically avoid using it if I were writing a scientific paper and not just editing others’ papers. In my job as a scientific editor, I think every time I've ever seen the word fold, it has meant ‘entailing multiplication by a factor of [the number that comes before it]’. In other words, a 2.5-fold increase always is used to mean ‘multiplied by 2.5 times’. Therefore, people would say both that $250 is 2.5-fold greater than $100 and that $250 is 2.5-fold (of) $100. That makes no sense to me”. Comments to that posting express similar confusion.
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This article suggested weighted population density in some epidemiological studies.
Do you know in which type of study weighted is preferable? Should other population characteristics be weighted also? Such as gender ratio, population income... Also, some events, such as infectious disease and healthcare utilization, are strongly related to density.
Many thanks for considering my request.
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Suraj Kapoor , thanks Mr Kapoor. It is very interesting paper. However, they only say: "that is better sutied" without explanation, but providing great practical examples.
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As part of my fellowship, I want to evaluate the oral health surveillance system as part of my fellowship. I already read CDC's guidelines for evaluating surveillance systems, but I am still confused about how to assess one. Does anyone have examples of work or reviews done for this type of evaluation?
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Dear Mendiore
CDC guideline have 9 component of evaluation. Some.of these are quantitative like Sensitivity, PPV and data Quality. So these are easily calculated. However some of the indicator are qualitative. Which are to be ascertained through interview of related stake holders.
We have used CDC guideline these are easy and friendly to use. I will share you my evaluation report which have all these CDC guideline indicators of evaluation of public health programs.
Please mail me on drsandeepguriro@gmail.com
Thanks
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In 1965 English Statistician Sir Bradford Hill gave 9 criteria's to provide epidemiological evidence of a causal relationship between presumed cause and observed effect. The criteria are as follows:
mnemonic- SCST ABCDE
S- Strength of association
C- Consistency
S- Specificity(Most difficult)
T- Temporality(Most important)
A-Analogy
B- Biological Plausibility
C-Coherence
D- Dose- response relationship
E - Experimental evidence
As we know specificity is difficult to ascertain ,So should all the criteria's to be fulfilled before ascertaining causality as compared to simple association?
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Causality is something that is inferred on the basis of evidence. Bradford Hill's criteria are not a checklist. Rather, they constitute the categories of evidence that we may use to infer causality. We may not have evidence in all of the categories before we are obliged to make a decision.
And this is the other important point. Causality doesn't mean a philosophical certainty about the mechanism, it means that we believe that we have identified a causal pathway that is worth acting on. The decision to act has also to take into account the dangers of acting now versus waiting for more data, the costs involved and the potential consequences.
So Bradford Hill's list is a way of categorising evidence. Its use is in a decision making process. It's not epistemology, it's public health!
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I am based on path analysis (structural equation modeling). I want to investigate the impact of Sulfur dioxide emissions on mortality.
  1. When I construct this path (Mortality rate <--- Sulfur dioxide emissions) the coefficient is positive and significant.
  2. Next, when I add additional path (Sulfur dioxide emissions <--- GDP per capita) the coefficient of Sulfur dioxide emissions on mortality is still positive and significant and the coefficient of GDP per capita on Sulfur dioxide emissions is significantly negative.
  3. However, when I add the third path (Mortality rate <--- GDP per capita). The coefficients of GDP on mortality and Sulfur dioxide emissions are both significantly negative. However, now the coefficient of Sulfur dioxide emissions on mortality is insignificant now.
Why this coefficient is insignificant now?
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As in regression analysis, paths in path analysis (which are regression coefficients) can become smaller, insignificant and even change signs when you add additional predictors/paths to the model. This is often due to effects of redundancy (overlap/correlation/collinearity between independent variables). As you note, sulphur dioxide emissions and GDP are related and therefore partially redundant. Differences in sulphur dioxide emissions may not account for any variation in mortality above and beyond what can be explained by differences in GDP.
An alternative (or additional) explanation could be differences in the sample size when adding GDP due to missing data. A reduction in sample size may reduce your statistical power for showing that a coefficient is different from zero.
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I need to know influence of Epidemiology in policy making and also influence of policy in Epidemiology as a discipline.
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Epidemiology provides the data that is required to take policy decisions. Studying the distribution of diseases, which is one of the components of Epidemiology, helps us in identifying the health problems of public health importance & prioritizing them. This knowledge can help in drawing the attention of the policy makers to these priority health problems so that they can make wise policy decisions accordingly. In a resource-crunch setting, we would be able to make the best possible use of the available resources by diverting them towards the priority health problems. And evidence for this comes from epidemiology.
Policy, on the other hand, aims to achieve the goals put forward as regards any particular priority health problem that it targets & through its implementation, it has the potential to change the epidemiology of the same.
Thus, both influence each other.
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I read interestingly one article titled “Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study highlights the global, regional, and national trends of chronic kidney disease epidemiology from 1990 to 2016”. In the article, authors performed Frontier analysis. I tried it in R software (Benchmarking, rDEA package) but could not perfectly did well. I only got the efficiency for every country at each year but failed to get the frontier pinpoint. I have examined many books and papers but could not find the answer.
Could anybody know how to perform frontier analysis using data envelopment analysis?
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OSDEA is easy and also free.
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I think MATLAB is preferred over R for this purpose, especially in epidemiology, isn't it?
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MATLAB
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There is a concept of viral load.
Viral load has been considered in connection with HIV (Impact of viral load and the duration of primary infection on HIV transmission: systematic review and meta-analysis, 2014, Blaser et al.).
In another context, a 2010 article by several authors, DeVincenzo et al, Viral Load Drives Disease in Humans Experimentally Infected with Respiratory Syncytial Virus. Page 1312 of the report mentions “the potential clinical effectiveness derived by achieving a robust reduction in viral load through antiviral compounds."
Is it possible that how much virus there is affects how serious a disease results on being infected by COVID-19? If that were so, then in addition to isolating COVID-19 cases to inhibit transmission, it might be possible to inhibit severity of the disease by reducing viral load.
Is there research on this? If not, should there be?
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Some epidemiological researches have complex aim that is answered using many objectives. Upon close look on the objectives, they are often discovered to fit to varying designs models; cross sectional, case-control, quasi experimental etc. Yet, most researchers usually, resolve to adopt the design of the dominant research question/objective while neglecting the other objectives. This has effects even on the sample size calculations and the tests of significance to be conducted later.
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Yes, You can apply mixed model in epidemiological studies based on the design and your research objectives.
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For example the significance values for prevalent symptoms in case of COVID-19. Please help.
What statistical test to apply in this case?
What is the prevalence of the symptoms to be compared with to test significance?
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T-test (2 groups) and ANOVA (3 or more groups) are most common
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I want to estimate the incidence of chronic myeloid leukemia in a region from retrospective data (approximately 30 years). Is it possible to do so? and if not how I can exploit my data epidemiologically?
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The incidence rate can be calculated retrospectively, Adil G. Fadil , as James Leigh explained.
You will need census estimates of the region's population over the time period. Of course, you won't have census data for every year, so the convention is to assume that the population changes linearly between census estimates.
The incidence is the number of cases over the number of person-years of exposure, so your exposure is the sum of all the annual population estimates.
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In bifurcation analysis, normal form of Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation is deduced. But I want to know it's biological significance.
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In the very near of the BT bifurcation, we observe mainly four kinds of bifurcation (transcritical, saddle-node, Hopf and Homoclinic) and the character of the interior equilibrium point will show stable focus, stable limit cycle, Homoclinic loop, unstable focus, etc. So, I think to understand the biological significance of BT bifurcation in the epidemic model you need to specify the dimension of the model. Then we can clear it. Otherwise, it is difficult.
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Hello to all
About 3 months ago, I asked this question, but I didn't get a comprehensive answer.
Can a person who has had Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) get infected again?
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Yes certainly !!!, it is possible even in vaccinated people, as well as facing to the new varients
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In view of the continuous evolution of science, especially in the field of mathematical epidemiology, and the ideology observed in this direction, I formulated a thesis project proposing a hybrid model broadening the field of understanding of infectious diseases, especially Covid-19. This model is a combination of the well known classical SEIR model and another newly introduced model under experimentation giving more data on the geographical aspect of the said disease needed to enhance the accuracy of the existing epidemiological systems or to build one as needed.
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There are numerous examples of using SEIR model involving vaccination, see e.g. this google search:
and/or:
I can't say much about the other model you intend to include because I could not understand it well enough based on your description.
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One reason for posting this question is to hope that by following this question it is possible to keep up on developments pertaining to this question.
An article in a health magazine, Stat, by Sharon Begley, Experts envision two scenarios if the new coronavirus isn’t contained, suggests the answer for now is, not sure.
An article in Lancet, Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study, by Prof. Joseph T. Wu, Kathy Leung, and Prof. Gabriel M Leung, remarks in the discussion portion of their paper that `independent self-sustaining human-to-human spread is already present in multiple Chinese cities’ including global transport hubs. This suggests that containing, confining and eliminating COVID-19 as a pervasive and ongoing infectious disease might not be possible.
If infected people do not acquire immunity, that affects calculations of the ongoing spread of COVID-19. For example, if 70% of a population catches COVID-19 and most survive and acquire immunity, then the size of the group that COVID -19 could newly infect would be smaller. In that way, over time, as the number of people who survive the disease increases, the rate of new infections might decline because there would be fewer people without acquired immunity. I wonder what epidemiology says? These issues also affect hopes for a vaccine.
Regardless of what the immunity situation is, it seems to be that there should be a permanent cultural shift away from greetings such as handshakes and kissing.
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for sure it's 100% possible even with vaccine
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Dear Researchers
We have launched a set of meta-analysis studies on prevalences of different medical conditions before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, where we just include studies in our meta-analysis that have compared epidemiological data of that disease before and after COVID-19 pandemic.
A manuscript of perforated appendicitis rate before vs. after COVID-19 has been finished and submitted to a journal but many available datasets that are already analyzed need a team to help finish about 10 articles!
some topics are ectopic pregnancy rate, DKA, testicular torsion, depression and psychiatric problems before and after pandemic!
Please Do not hesitate to contact me for getting contributed to this researches.
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Dear Mr. Hatami!
I searched for YOU articles that deal with the problems of "depression and psychiatric problems before and after pandemic" so you can contact the authors who are interested in the same topics:
1) Kim, H., Rackoff, G.N., Fitzsimmons-Craft, E.E. et al. College Mental Health Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results From a Nationwide Survey. Cogn Ther Res (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10608-021-10241-5 Free access:
2) Watkins-Martin, K., Orri, M., Pennestri, MH. et al. Depression and anxiety symptoms in young adults before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from a Canadian population-based cohort. Ann Gen Psychiatry 20, 42 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12991-021-00362-2 Open access:
3) Villarreal-Zegarra, D., Copez-Lonzoy, A., Vilela-Estrada, A.L. et al. Depression, post-traumatic stress, anxiety, and fear of COVID-19 in the general population and health-care workers: prevalence, relationship, and explicative model in Peru. BMC Psychiatry 21, 455 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12888-021-03456-z Open access:
4) Shaikh, A., Peprah, E., Mohamed, R.H. et al. COVID-19 and mental health: a multi-country study—the effects of lockdown on the mental health of young adults. Middle East Curr Psychiatry 28, 51 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1186/s43045-021-00116-6 Open access:
5) Panchal, U., Salazar de Pablo, G., Franco, M. et al. The impact of COVID-19 lockdown on child and adolescent mental health: systematic review. Eur Child Adolesc Psychiatry (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00787-021-01856-w Open access:
6) Engin Burak Selçuk et al. (2021). Anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms in adolesce nts during the COVID-19 outbreak and associated factors, International Journal of Clinical Practice, Early View, 16 Sept. 2021 Free access:
7) Darren Hedley et al. (2021). The association between COVID-19, personal wellbeing, depression, and suicide risk factors in Australian autistic adults, Autism Research, Early View, 21 Sept. 2021, Open access:
8) Duncan Thomas et al. (2021). Prevalence, severity and distribution of depression and anxiety symptoms using observational data collected before and nine months into the COVID-19 pandemic, The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, Volume 1, September 2021, Free access:
Yours sincerely, Bulcsu Szekely
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National Geographic April 5,2020 article is titled: Tiger tests positive for coronavirus at Bronx Zoo, first known case in the world.
If wild animals, including birds, can be a reservoir hosting COVID-19, that may pose additional hurdles to limiting and containing COVID-19.
Are there reports or studies bearing on this issue?
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In the current pandemic situation, it is not possible to completely avoid a psychiatric patient carrying COVID-19 or being directly symptomatic. In addition, medical priority is to help anyone. How is your psychiatric clinic prepared for this situation? What is the experience of Italian psychiatrists or psychiatrists from other countries of the world (China, European states?)
COVID-19 infection is currently superior to any mental disorder, but what is your management of an acute psychiatric patient with a positive epidemiological history or clinical symptoms? I am very curious about your opinions, comments and observations.
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At a large hospital in Montreal (where my son works) many nurses have resigned and only a few doctors are remaining (most are taking a leave of absence, or a holiday, just to get out). The vaccine mandate (take vaccine or leave) has stripped this hospital of professionals rendering it useless. Who is going to treat patients?Maybe the administrators!
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Hanta Virus
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In a Next Generation Matrix, the dominant eigenvalue (or spectral radius) corresponds to R0 (Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J. A., & Roberts, M. G., 2010).
What information then carry the remaining (non-dominant) eigenvalues of this matrix? Can they inform us about other dynamics of an epidemic?
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A researchable topics and research ideas in Epidemiology suitable for Doctorate degree Thesis
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Dear Sunday,
I do not what facilities you have in your department to conduct research on molecular epidemiology of some emerging zoonotic diseases. If your laboratory is well equipped and your Adviser agrees, you may plan your research on some emerging pathogen , such as Nipah virus, Cryptosporidium parvum, Rift Valley fever virus, Burkholderia pseudomallei etc.
If you have some interest in mycotic infections, please upload my over 110 papers related to mycoses.
Stay safe and healthy.
With best wishes,
Prof.Dr.Mahendra Pal
Founder Director of Narayan Consultancy on Veterinary Public Health and Microbiology
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As a part of my PhD, I conducted a study to assess health inequities in Amaravati capital region of Andhra Pradesh using two composite indices made from health determinants indicators and health outcome indicators.
Health outcome indicators data was available at the sub-district level. The data were interpolated to create a heatmap of the health outcome index. Whereas health determinants data was available at the village level. Thus I created a choropleth map using the health determinants index.
Later interpolated health outcome index map was overlayered on the choropleth map of health outcomes. It highlighted some interesting findings, i.e. areas of concern (Villages). The colour combinations created because of overlaying two layers revealed the areas with poor health outcomes and poor health determinants and areas with poor health outcomes with better determinants.
Kindly check these files and give your valuable opinions. Whether this type of analysis can be used to highlight the areas with health inequities or not? Please comment on the method used and the results obtained in the overlayered map.
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The OPGD model and "GD" R software package were recommended to identify spatial determinants from a perspective of spatial heterogeneity. You can refer the guide to use the model https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/GD/vignettes/GD.html. As a result, you can visualise contributions of determinants, and the interactive impacts of spatial variables.
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What do you think are the most important psychological disorders associated with COVID-19?
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Los más comunes son depresión, estrés, miedo, ansiedad, desesperación, tristeza etc
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1. In risk assessment studies pertaining to pandemic epidemiology, what are the major considerations?
2. COVID-19 has been featured in all fora where major scientific approaches have been adopted. As a high-level risk, its assessment should be holistic, superb, discreet and interdisciplinary. Apart from the risk of transmission to higher populations, health care systems, sustainable human livelihoods, water and ecological issues, are there other factors with links of references?
3. Do you think the expected time set aside for different countries in Europe, America, Asia and Africa is enough to contain the risk?
4. What model of mitigation can afford to painstakingly handle this risk in the environment?
You are free to attend any number of your choice friends.
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Prof. Charles Anukwonke: Before answering your valuable question, let us ask ourselves the following crucial question:
Is COVID-19 one of nature's secretions or it has been fabricated in the laboratories of one or more countries?
If COVID-19 is one of nature's secretions, we are part of "Nature" and we should realize that we have to always be in harmony with it. Anyhow, we must know how we know how to live with this pandemic while it lasts, indisputably. I hope that it was not fabricated inside the labs and it was not spread by a mistake. However, the coming days will prove if it is a nature-created or a man-made virus!
Now, let us ask another question:
If the COVID-19 pandemic is one of nature's secretions, do you think that the pandemic has its "cyclical apparition"?