Science topic

Elections - Science topic

An election is a formal decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy has operated since the 17th century. Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in the executive and judiciary, and for regional and local government. This process is also used in many other private and business organizations, from clubs to voluntary associations and corporations.
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Is it ethical for a group of authors to review each other's papers in order to obtain the conditions for election to scientific-teaching titles? The quality of the works is not a criterion but one's own promotion. What is your situation and what do you think about the above? Thanks.
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I agree that this is an ethical issue.
But in practice it is widespread. It will exist as long as we ourselves participate in it. Personally, I do not participate in this, despite the tempting offers and preferences from publishers.
Regards, Sergey
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Hello,
I am looking for papers that talk about short term thinking in democracies/elected politicians. I remember reading something in democratic theory about this a long time ago which argued that elected politicians can be short term in their decisions because they need to win the next election and need to please people now. I am reading Stephen M. Gardiner's book The Perfect Moral Strom and he applies this argument to why Western democracies have failed to take action on climate change (The costs of climate action are mostly felt by the present generation and most of the cost of climate change are felt by future generations). My question is have people done empirical studies of this to see if politicians are short term in their thinking and what are some good essays in democratic theory on this? Thanks in advance!
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See the The Concept of Representationc by [Hanna_F._Pitkin]
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Modern politics is characterized by many aspects which were not associated with traditional politics. Big data is one of them. Data mining is being done by political parties as they seek help from data scientists to arrive at various patterns to identify behavior of voters. Question is, what are the various ways in which big data is being used by modern political parties and leaders?
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Big Data platforms allow government agencies to access large volumes of information that are essential for their daily operations. With real-time access, governments can identify areas that require attention, make better and more timely judgments about how to proceed, and enact the necessary changes.
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I am currently interested in election studies and would like to read more, specifically from a book, that could explain the determinants of election outcome. please recommend me some book.
Thank You!
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The determinants of election outcome depend, of course, on the country and the political system.
The scholars listed below have developed models to forecast the outcome of U.S. presidential election:
Alan I. Abramowitz
Larry Bartels
James E. Campbell
Thomas M. Holbrook
Michael Lewis-Beck
Allan J. Lichtman
Christopher B. Wlezien
For a general orientation to U.S. election-outcome forecasting:
2020 Presidential Election Forecasting Symposium
Election Forecasters Preparing for Historic Election https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080623092530.htm
I developed a simple model to predict the outcome of U.S. presidential elections purely on the basis of personality traits:
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It is a well-known fact that the religious beliefs of voters are their personal choices. However, when it comes to voting in an election, the same plays a crucial role in the formation of opinion on the part of the voters and the political parties and leaders make a concerted attempt to influence them on the basis of their religious beliefs. Question is, how effective are the religious beliefs of voters with regard to their making election-related choices?
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Regular electoral competition provides incentives to political parties and leaders. Political parties know that if they raise issues that people want to be raised, their popularity and chances of victory will increase in the next elections.
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We need a Global Wealth Tax How rich are the rich relative to the poor? If they had ten times the wealth, no problem. It has always been that way. But what if the ratio was a million to one? That's undemocratic power. You know when democracy has gone. Elections become a sham, and leaders become increasingly incompetent, dishonest, and corrupt. Sound familiar? The existence of just one billionaire -- a single person with the wealth of a thousand millionaires, or a million workers with $1000 each -- is a sign that democracy is on the way out. We now have 3000 billionaries, including three smiling centibillionaires (Bezos, Gates, Zuckerberg). A centibillionare has the wealth of 100 billionaires or 100,000 millionaires. Capitalism may have its pros and cons, but this is getting ridiculous. If we want our democracy back, we have no choice but to reduce the wealth of the wealthiest. If we want peace, we have to do that gradually and fairly. In a word: democratically. Don't despair. It can be done. Big changes have happened before. Our main task is to think clearly and tell the truth.
Richard Parncutt
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I totally agree with you, there has to be a plan to this. If things like this are ignored many poor people will suffer and this will continuously increase the gap between poor people and the rich ones. Increasing tax amongst rich people is a great idea, but i think the is more that need to be done than increasing their Tax, because these rich people run their companies and businesses according to systems and structures which they built to benefit themselves and sideline poor people and outgrowing young business and entrepreneurs. These systems are not only sidelining poor people but young upcoming businessman/women's are sidelined, these are system built to prevent everyone from entering the mainstream for a long run, only those who work with them will share the wealth . Yes i agree to what you have raised regarding Tax, but understand that there is more to be done than tax, if they could break the systems formed to benefit them into benefiting everyone. The GWT would be a great impact and it will reduce the gap in a massive way. This was an interesting question thank you for raising it, the need to be a discussion about this, thanks
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I am currently working on a study about vote-buying culture through comparing voting behaviors in local, regional, and national level elections.
All suggestions and recommendations are invited.
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There are lot of studies related to this subject and you can find Clientlism politics to define your question further more as you can do your research Hanna Bint Shedique Boloto Alug
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The coming of exism movements in 2016 led to the coming of extreme democratic outcomes within majority rule based liberal democracies like in the USA.
And this brought a change in the nature of democracy as it has led to a shift from true democracy thinking to temporary democratic authoritarianism thinking.
We are probably familiar with the structure of the forces competing for power in a true democracy, I think. but not with the forces competing in a temporary democratic authoritarianism system. Which raises the question, what is the structure of temporary democratic authoritarianism? Any ideas?
Feel free to express your own views so we can exchange ideas in a positive academic environment as this is an academic question, not a political one.
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Lucio Muñoz , I would like to correct your impression, as follows: "If she would have thought that my answer was lacking, she would have said so including why she thought my answer was lacking so I have the change to reply, but she did not say so…
If there is a paradigm shift, Thomas Kuhn told us in the structure of scientific revolutions, those inside the box cannot see it and they will resist it at the beginning…. During the time of resistance in my view “they are a kind of living in the past”….
The question and focus here is: What is the structure of temporary democratic authoritarianism?"
This is my first opportunity to read your response to my question(s) because I had to work on several manuscripts, in case you are wondering, (1) a theoretical paper on Sacajawea as the matriarchal leader of the United States of America; and (2) East-West influences on Derek Walcott, the 1992 Nobel Award Winner in Literature, the first African American to win it, which blazed a pathway for Toni Morrison, in 1993 the first African American woman to win a Nobel Prize in Literature. If I had been here, I would have thanked you for responding to my request to define "outside of the box." However, it is true that my question, or rebuttal and supporting timeline, with regard to your assertion of what you posited as Trumponomics' dependency on warfare has remained unanswered.
I apologize in advance if there is another delay. Today's email brought a request that I revise a manuscript I wrote a couple of months ago and submitted for consideration for publication as a refereed journal article, which tries to argue my case for the multifaceted depiction of Capitalism in a classic film by Hitchcock, in which I also attempt to indicate ways in which the film coincides with the ideas of Newton, Einstein, Darwin, Freud, Marx, and Veblen. Needless to say, there is a good deal of generalized topical material, which makes a study like this quite vulnerable to (constructive) criticism, for which I am grateful.
I am still interested in knowing whether or not you still hold the view that what you call "Trumponomics" is inextricably bound together with a wartime economy, or have you changed your view?
With best wishes.
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I Intend to take this assignment through Fairclough's Critical Discourse Analysis framework
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The research sample is selected from three print media, with the following classification:
1. Right-wing party newspaper
2 . Left-leaning newspaper
3 . A private, non-partisan newspaper.
Or the sample is selected as follows:
1. partisan newspaper.
a. A party newspaper hostile to it.
p. Government newspaper.
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I believe that efficiently conducted marketing online campaigns in social media can already increase the insensitivity of new online media, including social media to traditional communication channels. Effective marketing campaigns on social media before political elections may already have more than 50 percent share. How big it will be depends on the technological possibilities in the field of new online media for a specific electoral staff that is active during the election campaign.
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
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Social networking sites are increasingly used in marketing campaigns for political parliamentary or presidential elections because their importance as effective instruments, types of new media, marketing and promotion continues to grow.
Greetings,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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I am interested in doing a quantitative analysis of voter turnout in multiple Canadian student unions (a sample size of about 80). Elections in these organizations are held annually. Would three election cycles (for example, 2019-2021 elections) be a long enough study period for an article or should I include more years in the analysis?
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I believe the 2019-2021 timeframe is enough. The legal framework must provide efficacious procedures and remedies for protecting electoral rights at all stages, including voter registration, parties and candidates, resource allocation and access to the media, campaign activities, voting, counting, tabulating and declaring results.
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There are academic reasons that support the idea that Trumpism can not just move on as a normal democratic would do if it loses an election, and there are reasons for it. So the question, why?
Any ideas!
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Sharing here final draft of paper about the 2016-2020 rise and fall of Trumpism using the thinking of the road from normal liberal democracies to permanent authoritarianism from within, it has some good food for thoughts:
Article Sustainability thoughts 133: Stating the expected step by st...
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Once extreme democratic outcomes like Trumpism come to exist they must behave autocratically as their model structure, including the political and legal loyalties structures that they needed to persist, are the opposite as those of the normal liberal democracy model inside which extreme democratic outcomes came to exist.
Then when time for re-elections comes for extreme democratic outcomes, there is the possibility of winning or losing if playing the normal liberal democracy way, but there is the need to win at all cost if playing the extreme liberal democracy way.
Which leads to the question, what is the sufficient condition for extreme democratic outcomes like Trumpism to win re-elections or persist in power at all cost? Can the absence of this condition sufficient condition explains why Trumpism failed to persist in 2020?
Any ideas? Please share your own ideas in order to exchange ideas.
Keep in mind; this is an academic question, not a political question as I am a scientist, not a politician.
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George as shown in my pictures, under an independent rule of law system and without effective targeted chaos that induces full true majority complacency, exism movements like Trumpism cannot come to exist, and if they come to exist and when they go into re-election the targeted chaos that once worked is ineffective, they will lose re-election and nothing they can do, but to fade away, as independent courts without proof or evidence of electoral fraud will validate the winner of the contest…..
In 2016 against Hillary Clinton, systematic targeted chaos was effective, trumpism won; in 2020 against Biden, systematic targeted chaos was ineffective, trumpism lost. The dilemma the Trump party has now is how to make targeted chaos be effective again…otherwise; they cannot come into power again as long as there is no full true majority complacency….
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OK so I have conducted a pretty standard GARCH (1,1) analysis on  the S&P 500 using the US volatility index return (VIX) as an independent variable in my mean equation. For my conditional variance independent variables I have used political electoral opinion polls volatility % daily change throughout the campaign and have left VIX out of it.
My goal is to find out whether political volatility is a significant explanatory factor within the SP500 volatility during election periods.
I have run the programme on STATA and am getting some weird results (see attatchment) including negative, large coefficients and large standard errors.
For the life of my I cannot see where I am going wrong?  Should I be running a different model? If so which one (BEKK, EGARCH, GARCHX)? Or are my results actually OK given that my alpha and beta parameters are sound and most of my P values are significant?
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Hi
I have almost similar model but I am suppose to apply garchx model. I don't know how to run it in stata. Can u help me
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Once the campaigning is over, the election is done and results are out, one of the competing parties goes on to win the election. Question is, whether the governance of the incumbent could be seen as an extension of their campaigning carried out during the election and if it is indeed the case then what about the party which loses the election? 
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Yes, the way one governance, particularly in African countries are largely based on their manifesto which they had promised to implement if elected. Since most of them want second term, they will always ensure that they fulfil on their pre-election pledges.
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Elections, not just voting, can become trustworthy.
Additional methods to the ones that made voting trustworthy (choose your favorite) can be applied. Eiections are not used to choose the captain of a ship, said Socrates, 2500 years ago. One can use technology to help. One has to verify competence, reciprocity, and (for fairness) anonymity.
Although voting is deterministic (all ballots are counted), information can be treated stochastically using Information Theory. Error considerations, including faults, attacks, and threats by adversaries, can be explicitly included. The influence of errors may be corrected to achieve an election outcome error as close to zero as desired (error-free), with AI providing many copies of results without voter identify. A voting method to do so, is explained at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/286459956_The_Witness-Voting_System
How about the next step, fair elections? Can one learn from the events in the US in Jan/6?
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One needs to be more attentive and not just believe on politicians.
For example, according to France and Brazil, the airplane was invented by Santos Dumont, who flew around the Eiffel Tower, and though he won the International prize for it, this is not accepted in the US, it is not even mentioned.
I see that other countries do not believe in "America First." The leadership stands divided.
Some are just grateful to be born and live here, hopeful to make contributions. China is passing the US on 5G. In short, the more one advances, the more opportunities for others to contribute and have success.
Here, elections must be based on trust, not just voting. As Stalin said, "who counts the votes control the voting." Many countries don't even consider the US a democracy, because there is no direct vote here yet -- no people voting. The president is voted indirectly. Maybe the problem yesterday will do away with the slave-time Electoral College. Will see.
Second, from size, India has a bigger claim to "largest democracy."
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As all of you may know, we can take the experience of Trumpism(November 2016-January 2021) in the USA to explore questions such as when a democratic contest can lead to partial and permanent authoritarianism. The failure of the USEXIT/Trumpism to persist by losing reelection means that we just witness temporary authoritarianism, but it could have been worse as one more step was needed to move towards permanent authoritarianism in the USA and the lost of the most relevant normal democratic system in the world. Which raises the question, When can permanent authoritarianism take hold under majority rule liberal democracies?. Any ideas about what the missing step was to transition from temporary to permanent authoritarianism in the USA in 2020. Feel free to share your ideas.
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Sometimes science fiction can turn out consistent with science.... Those scenarios of authoritarianism can be framed through parallel schemes where the two main components are effective targeted chaos (ETK) and legal loyalty to individual/party when in conflict, not to country/democracy, a situation that leads to either temporary or permanent authoritarianism....
Temporary authoritarianism comes from a shift from normal democratic outcome to an extreme democratic outcome(e.g. Trumpism) where the legal system remain loyal to country/democracy,,,,,,
Permanent authoritarianism can come in two ways, i) one step(shift from a corrupt normal democratic outcome to an extreme democratic outcome) or ii) two steps process(shift from a normal democratic outcome to an extreme democratic outcome; and effective targeted chaos soon after gaining power aimed at to transform the legal loyalty to democracy/ country to legal loyalty to party/individual for when there is legal conflict....
These dynamics have been on since 2016, but the main parties and the general population cannot see that clearly yet as under paradigm shift knowledge gaps it is difficult to know how to act or how to react so the normal democratic outcome becomes hostage of the extreme democratic outcome, ....When a shift takes place, paradigm shift knowledge gaps are created….
To persist after coming to exist, the extreme democratic outcome needs to win all cost, even when it loses; and to win even when it loses it needs to have courts with legal loyalty to party/individual, not to country/democracy.
To persist after a loss the extreme democratic outcome needs, not political loyalty only, it needs at the last result the sealing touch....legal loyalty to party/individual....
In his coming last ditch to win when it has lost, Trumpism may win a political loyalty test in congress/senate, but when it reaches the loyalty to country/democracy courts at the supreme court, the normal democratic outcome(Biden) win WILL BE RETIFY in the supreme court or the supreme court will not even hear the case as show of independence.....
If the USA supreme court were to put party/individual loyalty to country/democracy loyalty, it will be the end of president Lincoln dream of "a government of the people by the people for the people" and become a " government of the minority by the minority for the minority" and the end of democracy in the USA as the seeds for permanent authoritarianism would be in place, where win or lose, the extreme democratic outcome or Trumpism persist....
Assuming that the USA Supreme Court is still an independent body that puts country/democracy before party/individual it will reject fake facts and require facts and proof, this first try of Trumpism is done....
Assuming that the last 3 judges added to the supreme court during Trumpism transformed the court into a corrupt court that puts party/individual over country/democracy by accepting fake facts and leaving the facts and proof aside, then Trumpism will persist, and real widespread chaos will begin to force Trumpism out....
Sadly, as Trumpism requires loyalty to party/individual, it does not care about the political, social, and economic cost inflicted to the country/democracy, it only cares about PERSISTING...
Understanding the dynamics that rule the shift from normal democratic outcome to extreme democratic outcome ; and the conditions needed for them to persist or to be neutralize is important to properly safeguard democracy/country in the future….
I am just right now putting together a set of articles to be published in 2021 bringing out the ideas related to the structures of democracy that ensure the persistence of normal democratic outcomes and democracy under independent rule of law….and make it difficult if not impossible to have the conditions that allow extreme democratic outcomes to persist…
Thank you for your comment and the links to science fiction to the question at hand.
Respectfully yours
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The Hulu production ‘Harlots’ highlights how during the 18th Century aristocrats would often disregard the law (which they implemented and had enforced on their subjects) in their lust for power by abducting young maids and then would have their way with them such that the rape culminated in the death of the women all for some seconds of orgasmic pleasure. “This is fiction!!!”, you say. If you consider what has been happening at the House of Windsor over the last century you might be more credulous. Here we have a case of a young Princess Diana deceived into marriage so that the Royals could continue their bloodline. The princess, often confined to her bed-chamber (once she gave birth to the children), eventually had a mental breakdown that led to her death all while her prince charming committed repeated infidelity. In a like manner, we have another Royal, Prince Andrew, the much beloved son of Queen Elizabeth, caught with has ‘pants-down’ fraternizing with pubescent girls in the company of the late Jeffry Epstein who as an insurance policy against anyone who planned to report on his illicit operations on his Island of Pedophilia, video-taped all the rich and famous who indulged in those activities with him. What all these stores have in common are having unlimited funds to support an unchecked lifestyle.
Now to Donald Trump. If you look at the history of this man he employed his vast sums of money (presently estimated to be around 2.4 billion dollars by Bloomberg News) to commission a bevy of lawyers to succeed at victimizing individuals who cannot come up with a comparable sum of money to succeed in court. He picks his victims strategically. When he was accused of raping an underaged girl with Jeffry Epstein in the state of New York in 1994, the girl—later as an adult and apparently of modest means—never put forth an effective prosecution in 2016 (Case 1:16-cv-07673-RA). In a like manner when Trump refused to pay individuals for the construction of Trump Tower in New York or for the running of his businesses most did not have the means to fight him in court (US Today June 9, 2016). Trump has a long history of using the American court system to his advantage knowing that by simply pushing more money a rich person often overcomes the defenses of a poor person. Even when he loses in court, as he did for running a fake ‘Trump University’, he has the mean to manipulate the media such that his followers concluded that he is indeed a master deal maker as underscored in ‘The Art of the Deal’ and promoted in the TV series ‘The Apprentice’ which propelled him to the presidency.
The methods used by Donald Trump to corrupt the results of the 2020 election is much in keeping with the forgoing precedent: use the court system even when the chips are down since in the end—even if defeated—one will have the opportunity to contaminate the minds of the entourage which now number in the tens of millions and which includes prominent Congressmen, that the 2020 election was stolen, a distortion of fact that will then be used to pave the way to the next deception which always seems to replenish his bank account. So far, Trump’s followers have contributed over 170 million dollars to his ‘election fraud’ scam. The only way to end this contemptible behavior is to put him away much like what has been done with Al Capone, Anthony Salerno, Ivan Boesky, El Chapo, and if he had not taken his own life, Trump’s partner in crime Jeffry Epstein.
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This was completely new and unusual in politics and public law. It was extremely interesting to see that political scientists and other professionals did not know what would happen the next day, what reactions would occur. Similar phenomena can be observed in other countries (actors, businessmen, laymen in power), we are arriving at another milestone.
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Targeted chaos and misinformation are at the heart of extreme democratic outcomes as they are the active ingredients needed for them to come to exist, to persist, and to propagate. One example of extreme democratic outcome is USEXIT or Trumpism.
Targeted chaos and misinformation are mostly based on fake facts or an alternative facts, which raises the question “Are extreme democratic outcomes when in conflict and the rule of law in liberal democracies incompatible?
I think yes, what do you think? Why do you think so?
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In addition to previous comment, certain form of neoliberalism mainly in economic and social, as well as cultural matters, can be extreme. As , for example, the ideology and practise of Free Market institutes in Eastern Europe. But this neoliberal approach has other things to do if compare to trumpism. Anyway, the analysis of connection between trumpism and neoliberal/state/national aspects is very interesting for research. But it is another case than Yours, dear Lucio.
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The recent US presidential election has seen president Donald Trump accused of fraud by Democrats? Do you think the U.S. election was really fair?
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I have no testable arguments to affirm or deny. However, the same United States government under the same basis would put the change of government at risk if this had happened in another country.
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Donald Trump and his challenger Joe Biden have presented vastly different visions for handling crucial issues, from the coronavirus pandemic to climate change. This results in how the election could shape many "Science" or "the scientific implications of Climate Change" issues.
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Definitely as United States is major Role players in Global Science and also have to play role in scientific tools in Climate changes
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Under normal liberal democracy there is war between several views on how to advance the common good either at the expense of the minority(e.g. traditional liberal democratic parties) or at the least cost possible to the minority(e.g. traditional liberal conservative parties). ...War here simply means " a usually heated conflict between competing ideas....".
In normal liberal democracies, science plays a central role, and if science is not followed or it is partially followed or it is ignored completely and things go bad, the opposition party will use that rational in the next election and the incumbent party may spin the reality, but the buck stops there…and the people decide at election day….
Hence, liberal normal democracies of all sorts are incompatible with authoritarianism.
When we have an extreme liberal democracy such as USEXIT or Trumpism, the whole thing changes….extreme liberal democratic outcomes should be expected to align better with authoritarianism than with normal democratic thinkers,,,
I can see several reasons why that is the case, which leads to the question, Which are the central links between extreme liberal democracy and authoritarianism/dictatorships?. Can you see them? Or What do you think?
Please express your views on the question.
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No worries Michael, I appreciate your comments, and I am here to share ideas and learn too.
Have a nice day
Lucio
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Dr. Anthony Fauci, a respected US epidemiologist, said two things that might be useful for us to take into consideration.
1. Do not expect a medical solution to Covid, as a treatment or vaccine, until February 2021.
2. We have not yet seen even the beginning of the infection toll.
With that perspective, the current Covid problem is long-term and will be with us in the environment for a long time, even when it is treatable. It has no reason to follow the US election calendar. Favorable mutations may change this picture.
Your comment?
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If you have successfully taken a water bear from a petri dish under a stereo microscope and prepared it for Scanning Election Microscopy, how did you do it? I pipetted this water bear from a petri dish into a vial of 91% isopropyl alcohol, and it made it shrivel up.
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Hi,
You need to put them into series of alcohole solutions starting from 10%, 20%, 30%.....etc upt to 100% later into acetone solutions 25%, 50%, 75% and 100%. Later, dray them in CO2 critical point and they should looks nice :)
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Last weekend millions of Poles went to the ballots to vote in the presidential election. The election was in many ways a crossroad for Poland, will Poland go down the road of liberalism or continue down the road of conservatism and nationalism? Will Poland rejoin the European family of nations or will they be the travel companion of Hungary on a path towards further nationalism and isolation?
The implications of this elections are many and most of them are related to issues such as the future relation to the EU, the independence of the judiciary, independence of the press and in the long run, perhaps even the future of Polish democracy. I wrote an article on the subject that was published and syndicated in news outlets across Africa and the Middle East and I will share it with you, in case you are not familiar with the subject, I received many comments and questions from readers so I thought it might be an interesting debate. The article can be found here.:
What are your thoughts about the future of Poland, the EU and the issues laid out here in this text? The words is free..at least for now.
Best wishes Henrik
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Unfortunately, some are doing everything to steal European identity. Such threads are obliging Poland and other countries to draw the specifed and private identity .
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Hello. I am writing a research paper on municipal elections in Saint Petersburg. The recent elections of 2019, according to observers, were held with a large number of violations. In my work, I try to check this. But I have some questions. If I understand correctly, the elections are held using the “Multiple non-transferable vote”/Block Vote system. In other words, the voter can choose up to five candidates from the entire list, and the winners are those who received the highest number of votes in all precincts. Are there any countries with such a voting system, and open data about elections? For example, in Russia, it is possible to view data on each specific polling station where elections were held, for example, how many votes were cast for candidates, how many ballots were issued, etc. Could you recommend literature specifically about this voting system?
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In Croatia you can have one preferential vote from the list. Although ot seems not significant we had a last person on the list being elected for EU Parliament due to preferental votes.
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Modern politics has witnessed the anvil of the dual concepts of political branding and political marketing which have played crucial roles in such political events like elections, specifically, the campaigning aspect of it. Question is, how they differ from each other? The difference ought to be highlighted with regard to the practical implications arising out of the two and not merely the theoretical one.
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Sigge Winther Nielsen (2016) defines the political brand as “Political representations situated in a pattern, which can be identified and differentiated from other political representations” (p. 71). Over time, the electorate attaches certain meanings to the names and electoral symbols of political parties, which allows them to differentiate and vote from one party to another in elections (Smith & French, 2009, p. 211).
The brand concept is a powerful and attractive tool for understanding political images. According to Margaret Scammell (2014), branding has the potential to unify the rational and emotional aspects of political behavior. The beauty of the brand (brand concept), says Scammell (2014) is “broad and inclusive; brings together the rational and the seemingly irrational, the hard and soft elements of voter choice, the important dimensions of political reputation and the seemingly trivial details of the appearance and tone of voice. In short, the brand concept is attractive because it has the potential to bring together perspectives from political science, economics-based approaches to political marketing and cultural analysis of modern politics”(p. 8). According to Gareth Smith and Alan French (2009), political brands can be understood as a complex with three distinct elements: “the party as a brand; the politician as his tangible characteristics; and politics as basic service offerings”(p. 212).
  1. Nielsen, S.W. (2016). Measuring political brands: An art and a science of mappingthe mind. Journal of Political Marketing, 15(1): 70-95. DOI: 10.1080/15377857.2014.959682.
  2. Scammell, M. (2014b). Politics and Image: The conceptual value of branding.Journal of Political Marketing, 14(1-2): 7-18.
  3. Smith, G., & French, A. (2009). The political brand: A consumer perspective. Marketing Theory, 9(2): 209-226. DOI: 10.1177/1470593109103068.
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Political branding has been a phenomenon which has come to characterize the campaigning associated with an election in modern politics. Question is, apart from an election, where else does the concept of political branding find traction in the scheme of a political party and/or leader?
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La marca política si se extiende hoy día más allá de las elecciones, en la comunicación de Gobierno por ejemplo la marca política se usa como parte de la "campaña permanente". Además un fenómeno interesante que estudio como parte de mi doctorado es cómo la marca del líder político se utiliza hoy (al menos en Latinoamérica) de la mano de las Marcas País o Nación. De esta manera el valor de marca es reconocido desde el uso político y se disfraza tras marcas nacionales que tienen mayor relevancia, circulación mediática y trascendencia.
Le paso un artículo que traté al respecto por si le sirve alguna referencia.
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For a class I'm preparing to teach, I'm looking for (estimated) data on the numbers of U.S. citizens who engage in political activities beyond voting, such as
1. volunteering in campaigns,
2. contributing to campaigns,
3. working as election officers at the polls on election day,
4. contacting legislators, and
5. commenting to agencies about proposed administrative rulemaking.
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Unfortunately, to get a real picture, it does get rather involved...
Not in any order.
1) You can contact individual campaigns (web sites) on participation (paid and volunteers) and donation information.
2) The different parties provide numbers for volunteers, staffs, etc. and donations.
3) The Federal Election Commission has numbers on reported donations.
4) The Poll volunteers would be from several sources, local and state election boards, as well as, individual parties for poll watchers.
5) The state election boards can also provide voting participation stats.
6) You also have to research PACs and specific issue oriented groups.
You do have to remember, small donations (don't recall the thresh hold amount) do not have to be individually recorded and can skew perceptions of what is actually going on.
And Lastly: https://uselectionatlas.org/ for actual election results which in reality, is the only participation poll that matters considering several groups have large numbers volunteering but have a low participation rate in voting.
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In my work, I consider candidate positioning in the election. I've got 35 of districts with 2 or 3 candidates in each one (overall, there are about 90 candidates). I want to scale these candidates to show their positions on some map. On each candidate, I gather textual data (from social media) that contains from 1000 to 20,000 words (one candidate = one document).
In most of the articles about party positioning, I've seen that the most popular method is MDS. But later I was told that this method for text analysis is a kind of outdated for sociologists, and they rather use t-SNE for text analysis. Then, I found PCA, LDA, and other methods, and now I'm confused.
What method is most suitable in my case? Thank you in advance!
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PCA, LDA etc are most suitable for conditionality reduction. A good link for its codes is https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/35185/dimensionality-reduction-svd-or-pca-on-a-large-sparse-matrix?rq=1
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I am running a multivariate logistic regression to predict the likelihood of individuals voting for the green party, using a survey of european election studies of 2019. My main IV is education levels; when I add other explanatory variables, there are significant. However, my classification table (as shown below) shows that my model cannot predict anything; I have tried using other IVs to see if that could be the issue but, as I thought, it is not. I do not know how to resolve it; or can I simply state in my report that the goodness of fit of the model is simply not so good?
I would like to understand why this is happening and if there is a way for me to resolve it?
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This is not answering you question directly, but I would like to point out that there is a problem in using standard logit models when the number of cases for one outcome is relatively are compared to the other. And it is the absolute number that counts. The usual maximum likelihood estimates are know to be biased. This is a good and clear account of the problem and suggested solution (Firth logistic regression). https://www3.nd.edu/~rwilliam/stats3/RareEvents.pdf It is often a problem in voting data. This is also a good account followed by illuminating questions and answers
For users with IBM SPSS Statistics version 23 or higher, the STATS FIRTHLOG extension is installed as part of IBM SPSS Statistics-Essentials for R. For Stata see
That of course is tackling the problem via analysis, it is also possible to do it ameliorate at the design stage by oversampling the 'cases' (with or without matching). This is often used by epidemiologists in what is known as a case: control design. You cannot use the data to estimate prevalence as you have fixed this, ( eg 50 cases and 50 controls; or 50 cases and 200 controls ) but under certain assumptions you can get regression-like estimates of the effect of exposures on the outcome. ( See )
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It seems good that after two terms in office, the president leaves the office for one term. But I do not consider good not to allow that person to run for president ever again. American citizens should be given the opportunity to choose between Mr. Trump and Mr. Obama.
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Prof. Mario Radovan Interesting question for venezuelans.
Do you know which US administration allowed and why---to transfer billions stolen from the Venezuelan oil industry by the chavismo plague---to the international financial system? Regards.
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Hi all I’m conducting research on the relationship between social media and election violence. Particularly can a popular hateful page on social media that is spewing hateful tweets or posts cause it’s followers to enact real life violence on a target group?
for ex did Donald trumps anti Jewish tweets cause lead to more Jews being victimized etc.
any Insights would be beneficial as I draft up a research proposal
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I am having trouble locating hate tweets/popular accounts as twitter may be deleting them
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Under normal democratic outcomes(the majority view wins the democratic contest) or normal liberal democracies, traditional conservatism is against big governments, bail outs, social welfare, deficits.....because they are seen as benefitting the majority...what traditional conservatives see as bad socialism...
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The 2016 coming of USEXIT/an extreme democratic outcome(the minority view wins the democratic outcome) or extreme liberal democracy indicates that there has been a shift from traditional conservative thinking to flipped conservative thinking in the USA, as now things that were bad such as bail out such as the bail out of famers or increasing deficits are okay...like good socialism.
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And this raises the question: Is flipped conservatism at the heart of extreme democratic outcomes like USEXIT/Trumpism?
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What do you think?
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It has been widely felt by those dealing with the affairs of Britain and USA that the two most prominent events of last year, namely, Brexit and the USA Presidential Election has resulted in much alienation on the part of these two major economies thereby creating an image which is of being less friendly to the outer world. Question is, the present trend is here to stay or would it give way to a better situation in future?
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The history is ideological weapon! As shows history they are always in the same boat.
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South African elections have ushered in a new thinking on the role of social media in influencing elections. The EFF had the highest number of young people who where on social media. ( 6 million) and they did not register to vote. these votes would have swayed the election in favour of EFF but sadly they did not vote.
What does this mean?
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yes. debate of candidate for election is very important. Social media affect on our decision ( of course, it would be good or bad ) . It depends on us.
Social media completely can change our decision about people election .
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I pursued my doctoral work in the domain of political branding in the context of a developing democracy, India. During my work, I conducted an empirical analysis to establish the relationship between political branding and political participation and other related concepts. The findings of the study do indicate that such a relationship exist, that is, political branding influences political participation. However, the relationship the other way around, that is, political participation influencing political branding left things to be desired. Also, the role of social media, which is quite hyped in an event like an election, was not found to be much as far as influencing voting preferences was concerned. All this got me thinking whether the efficacy of political branding could be similar in a developing democracy like it is in an advanced democracy? 
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It is very difficult to exactly specify the factors involved in national elections both in developing and advanced democracies. Although political branding can influence the participants' preferences, there are certain byzantine complexities predominating elections which make it difficult for the researcher to ascertain the true validity of the findings. After all, the world of politics is a context with many interlocking variables that may be manipulated by both internal and external contenders.
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Now that election results in Spain are known, do you think there will be a change in Spanish policy, and what will be the effect on European countries and the rest of the world.

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I suspect Sanchez intends to rule with a minority cabinet. This works well in Scandinavia, rarely in southern countries.
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Manipulate data as usual habit in the election. Why we have to join the election?
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In many countries, voting is not mandatory. There are some democratic organizations that have a "none of the above" option on ballots so those who do not like any of the candidates or options can still express their will
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The social media is abuzz with a lot of action these days what with every organization worth its salt making its presence felt on social media. Question is, is the time ripe to claim that social media could very well help in gauging how effective the performance of a particular organization is? And could the same parameters be applied to political parties and leaders? Asking so because of late, social media has come to play an increasingly significant role in the build-up to the election during the campaigning phase.
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Yes, actually social media activities are also frequently used in political marketing practices. For example, Obama is one of the presidents who benefited most from this concept. During the campaign process, the on-line question and answer sections on the voters with Facebook made it possible for the voters to receive immediate answers to their questions, while the leader also identified the voter problems through face-to-face interviews and contributed to the effectiveness and efficiency of the promotion and advertising activities.
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The whole world is putting a lot of attention to how to deal with extreme democratic outcomes(EDO) like USEXIT and BREXIT and their implementation, but normal engagement channels to counteract it or slow it down or create the conditions for future change do not seem to be working….
Should political strategies that work under normal democratic outcomes(NDO) be expected to work in the world of extreme democratic outcomes(ED0)?. If think, No, but the opposition to the extreme democratic  outcome and policies  appear to think that they do as they keep using them…apparently with no much luck, what do you think?
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I am looking for possible data sources and algorithms that can be used for predicting electoral results. Few data sources I can list included:
  • Opinion Polls
  • Past Elections
  • Social Media
Form social media what type of data can be used other then using Twitter tweets and Facebook Posts?
What techniques can be used other than or in addition to Sentiment analysis?
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Agent based modelling (ABM) is an option. You program the behavior of N kind of electors and free them in a field to see how they build a social behavior (see simulations in NetLogo).
Also clustering is a nice technique if you have enough data about a diverse population.
Of course if you have target variables, neural networks are a good option.
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I am looking for the current open research gaps / challenges for predicting electoral results?
  • The accuracy of results seems a challenge after the wrong predictions for U.S. 2016 Elections results.
What are the other research gaps and challenges?
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Dear Muhammad Bilal,
Currently, many research centers use sentiment analysis by examining the content of comments, posts and news of thousands or millions of users of social media portals and other websites. The sentiment analysis is carried out on large collections of information collected from the deliberately selected many websites and stored in Big Data database systems. This analysis is carried out periodically at specific time intervals to diagnose changes in the main trends of general social awareness, including opinions on specific topics in society.
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Elections are often repeated, usually after several years, but sometimes also after several months. Some mature democrats strongly oppose a repetition of a referendum. Why? Why do they repeat elections?
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The orthodox view would be... elections create governments. People to rule in sense of creating and administering policy on a vast range of issues. Those people quickly grow weary, trust fades, need to be turned over, etc. You roll the dice periodically to renew that mandate and exercise accountability.
Whereas referendums are specific questions: usually constitutional issues or protracted social values questions, with the purpose of resolving the matter for a generation. You don't keep rolling the dice: an approach that Highest Courts with binding power to rule on constitutional questions also heed.
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A Free neutron will dekay in about 14 minutes into proton, election and other particles. But neutron is stable when it is with proton. Why is this? Also, how can this be explained in wave theory?
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Without an electric charge, the neutron is unable to reflect or receive coherent feedback. Thus it's existence in a state of narcissistic paranoia continues into increasing entropy until it is no longer relevant.
( Sorry -- I couldn't resist.)
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My question is based on the regulation of Indonesia general election supervisory body called Bawaslu RI (Badan Pengawas Pemilihan Umum Republik Indonesia) No. 8/2018 on settlement of administrative violations of general election, Article 64. Which stipulate if there is any party who is not satisfied with the verdict made out by the first stage court conduct by the provincial/district Bawaslu (only applied to the party who is act as the reporter party or the reported party in the case). could ask a favour to the Bawaslu RI as the appeal court to correct the verdict made out by the Provincial/Regency Bawaslu as the first stage court. But, in the process of correction of the verdict by the Indonesian Election Supervisory Body (Bawaslu RI). they are not obliged to present the parties which involved in this case, they will only strengthen the verdict made by the provincial or district Bawaslu or correct the verdict by examining the verdict documents and evidence presented in the first stage court. without presenting the parties involved in the case (in other words, they did not apply the audi of alteram et partem principle).
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What do you mean about defence of circumtances Mr. Muhammad Salisu Muhammad?
Thank you
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What is your view in terms of manipulation of results and other factors when comparing electronic voting systems vs manual balloting?
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Electronic voting - reduce time, but problem with reliability. Manual voting - slow speed, high reliability. Maybe India's experience using this EVM can be used to consider this method.
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I am interested in the following questions:
What are extreme democratic outcomes(EDO)? When should they be expected to take place? Do they work under sustainability theory or chaos theory?. Are they the extreme opposite of the normal democratic outcomes that are supposed to come out from democratic models based on majority rule one person one vote? Do they follow normal independent voting/preferences and ranking assumptions?.
And the reasons are:
Without having answers to the questions above, it is difficult a) to predict EDOs and therefore to avoid them; b) it is not possible to see how you can deal with them once they take place; c) it is difficult to see the link between chaos in the creation and the sustaining of the conditions behind the extreme democratic outcome; and d) it is difficult to see what needs to be done to create the conditions for extreme democratic outcomes to revert towards normal democratic outcomes.
The need for a theory of extreme democratic outcomes and democracy
The fact that polling and the media missed the coming the BREXIT and the USEXIT, the subsequent lost of BREXIT and the fact that extreme democratic outcomes did not materialize in France and the Netherlands indicate that a theory of extreme democratic outcomes and democracy is needed urgently.
I am working on a series of papers on the topic right now as it is clear that at least in the short and medium term some extreme democratic outcomes and their consequences are here to stay, and stay longer if we keep treating them as if we are dealing with normal democratic outcomes.
Is anybody here working in the lines of extreme democratic outcomes, a line where normal ideas of voting theories and preference ranking may no longer work?.  Any comments?
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"an extreme democratic outcome, decision or office holder, can only take place when there is full true majority complacency or protest behaviour especially under targeted chaos aimed at tricking a true majority into voting in ways that will work later against them".
In large part I agree with this statement but it needs further analysis. There is no doubt that the Brexit vote and the election of Trump included significant 'protest behaviour', we saw it during the campaigns. We must of course ask who the protests were aimed at.
The incumbents at the time were a centrist liberal Conservative party in the UK and a similar centrist president but increasingly right wing congress in the US. It was their form of liberalism that the populations of both states voted against.
It is rather difficult to maintain the argument that they were tricked into protesting. Serious and deep seated disaffection with liberalism existed within both the UK and US. That liberalism saw the real value of wages reduced and the standard of living for very many continually decline.
I tend to agree that the end result of Brexit and Trumpism will work against those who supported both politics but the alternative was never a bed of roses either.
Most serious political commentators consider that this episode of Alt Right 'extremism' will be short lived. When it fails to deliver the outlandish promises disillusionment will step in much quicker than before. Lets ee what happens in November.
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There are many theories and studies in the domain of political branding which delve in the psychology of the voters. Question is, who could one quantify the effect of political branding with regard to helping the voters behave rationally in an election?
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The Republican candidate Donald Trump received such negative coverage during the Presidential Election campaign last year which was unprecedented in the history of the election whereas Hillary Clinton was the darling of the media as compared to him. However, the final outcome was much to the dismay of the media houses. This very much explains his intense dislike towards press. Question is, what implication could be drawn from the victory of President Trump in the light of such negative publicity?
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Those that voted in Trump are extremely frustrated with the last several decades of US politics. He may be a flash in the pan, or change the nation;s political direction. Time will tell. He may well surprise the world. He can be compared to Theodore Roosevelt who believed the US had a great future and believed in a strong nation that considered its self interests. Time will tell.
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I'm doing a content analysis of political debates (20/20 total) broadcast before a specific election (census sample). My content analysis specifically observes and codes negative appeals in terms of two groups by political affiliation. Which statistical test/analysis should be considered for the analysis?
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I guess you could "pair" the two candidates from each debate.
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The recent Malaysian election has seen a change of guards in the parliament.
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The change in Maylasia will become important in ways we cannot predict; While I can't speculate on the nature of those changes, they will likely be judged on whether they increase or decrease democracy. To build a democratic society, it must be practiced in every element, every institution and every political change. From this, I humbly suggest that the new prime minister, who has declared he will personally run the education sector: gather and listen closely to the teachers. Education leaders--whether in Malaysia or in any other country--Do not substitute one's own opinion for those who most closely work with the children, but ask them to assess and then design the teaching/learning methods for democracy that can work best to develop youth who can think broadly and deeply, and who can perform both vertically and horizontally in industry, government and community life.
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Other things being equal(Ceteris Paribus), it can be said that types of democratic outcomes possible under majority rule based democracy are normal democratic outcomes and extreme democratic outcomes.…,,,Under normal democratic outcomes the majority view rules, either as a full majority or a partial majority.  Under extreme democratic outcomes the true minority view rules, which raises the question, can extreme democratic outcomes take place if there is no chaos?. I think no, what do you think?
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It is a contentious view that Brexit was the minority view, and here already we have a problem on who decides what is a minority view and what is the majority view. Brexit was favoured in most parts of the UK outside London. Only, I believe, in London was it the minority view. Those who desired to remain, rightly or wrongly, have merely been extremely loud in their denunciations and have tended to have celebrity status. A minority in effect!
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India is the second largest urban system in the world after China: indeed, the seventy world’s largest urban centers are in India.
Between 2001 and 2011, India had 7933 cities and towns of different population sizes. Unfortunately, by that time, India had reached only 31,16% of its urbanization.
In 2005, JnNURM a ministerial mission, was launched to provide a ‘toolkit’ and a written Reform Agenda with ‘desired goals’. The social and political changing pattern generated by the shift from traditional Congress Party to Bharatiya Janata Party has been a turning point for urbanization in India in the 2010s.
Since 2014, when Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister, won the election, the country has faced structural changes at economic and political levels.
´Why does the urban policy fail at central/national level?
´How can the central government of India answer to the international pressure of a National Urban Agenda, when the federal organization of the country settled its urban policies at state level, as per 74h CAA statement?
´If the Urban Agenda is disconnected from national level, what does it reflects in relation to Indian cities?
´The compulsive use of five years plan and the ‘scheme system’ is appropriate and efficient in the creation and implementation of urban policies?
´Who are the key actors in urban planning in India?
´If the decision-making and financing distribution as at State level, to what extent can be involved the civil society, NGOs and/or ULBs in this process?
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Thank you very much for your answer!
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Millions of personal data belonging to people across the globe from Facebook was gathered and then allegedly used by the political consultancy Cambridge Analytica for politcal purpses, notably election influence. Apartb from the nose-diving market value of Facebook, key questions have arisen: Did Facebook do enough to prevent the data breach? Is this a new low for privacy? Is this a new low for the democratic process? Should Facebook be regulated like any other business? And should Mark Zukerberg step down or shutter the social network? Interesting questions begging for anwers!
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Academics have been warning for this for years. The problem is far from limited to Facebook as well. The concern on privacy is also underlying the new EU GDPR. As such, I wouldn't consider it as a new new low, but rather as a moment of exposure (and many more of these breaches are to be expected).
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We would like to have our whole questionnaire to be answered in less than 5 minutes and we need to be cost-effective with the time of our respondents.
We thought using the Beck Depression Inventory and the STAI questionnaire, but were wondering if GHQ-28 would be a better election.
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For a really brief screen, the PHQ-4: 2 items are taken from the PHQ-9 (depression scale) and 2 items are taken from the GAD-7 (anxiety scale).
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Can any one name existing and under planning use cases of BlockChain Technology?
Like
1) Electronic voting in literature it is available but does it really exist
2) Banking Gross Settlement  like RTGS
3) Cross border payments
4) Supply Chain
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Dear @Saeed and @Ahmed are making copy/paste plagiarism!!! Here are their original resource.
@Saeed:
What is "BLOCKCHAIN" Technology ?
@Ahmed:
Don't know what's Blockchain technology? Let us explain
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In the USA, the voting results in most presidential elections in recent years have always been nearly equally divided between the two opposite sides. As a result, the election result is determined by a small minority of "swayable" voters.
Ideally it would seem that given the same facts, most thinking people would clearly see which candidate to vote for, with a resulting overwhelming majority decision.
Is the actuality of nearly equal division between liberals and conservatives common in other democracies? Or is this peculiar to the USA with its two-party system?
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@ Dario, Everything is relative, and there are degrees of qualities. In your frame of reference, which maybe is the idealistic polar opposites of pure communism and pure capitalism, you are right.
But, from around 1920 to 1970, there were big differences between liberal Democrats (supported to a large extent by labor unions) and conservative Republicans (supported by big business and other privileged citizens).
Since then both parties have shifted towards the right, but there are still important, but not sufficient, differences. Of course, within each party there is a spectrum of degrees of liberalism and and conservatism.
Now that Trump has taken office and dark money is dictating what the Republicans do, there is a stark difference between various things, that the two parties advocate, especially regarding social welfare.
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Right after the 2016 US election, we heard a lot about the "echo chamber" that saw a lot of people talking about issues in social media, but mostly to people of similar beliefs.
Why did neither side have much success persuading people of conflicting beliefs and what should we do differently in the future?
What can we learn about future political persuasion?
See more thoughts here:
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I do recomend you to follow Richard E. Petty.
and The Attitudes & Persuasion Lab (https://richardepetty.com/apl/)
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I want to predict 2018's election of Pakistan. which algorithm of classification would be the best?
I have just thought about J48, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network...
I need your suggestions.
Regards
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For the subject that concerns you I will recommend The Annals of Improbable Research U.S. Presidential Election Algorithm (Debowy and Schulman 2003).
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For an academic research
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very interested
interested
neutral
disinterested
very disinterested
Dennis
Dennis Mazur
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Iam working on simulating a wsn protocol that select the CH based on fuzzy logic in ns2
I need to know how to select the CH in ns2 .
Thank you all
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Thank you Shubham for your help
i will try it
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There have been many proponents of the concept of political branding which is basically an amalgamation of the dual concepts of politics and branding. Question is, what all activities and events as practiced and performed by the political parties and leaders would qualify to be considered under the concept of political branding? Asking this question so as to understand how well the concept of political branding could be understood in terms of these of activities.
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For some scholars, political branding is the lens by which all the communications pass (look to Marland (2016, etc)). Or Needham (2005) proposes that a party who forms the government can use those resources to reinforce his own brand. We can imagine how policies can become a way to reinforce a certain element of the brand of the party.
So in a way, I would say that every activities of a party/government has the potentiel to reinforce a brand or modify it, whenever the party does it consciously or not.
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Dear all, I'm trying to find data on electoral volatility in the following countries:
- Albania
- Bulgaria
- Czech Rep.
- Estonia
- Hungary
- Israel
- Lithuania
- Poland
- Slovenia
- Slovakia
- Kosovo
I found data for Western Europe, but I did not find any about this region. Thank you very much for your help!
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Hi Scientists!!
I am trying to choose the best model in a experimental arrangement of four factors and three levels.
I don't know what model is more correct? I chose Box-Behken but I am thinking about central-composite design.
I wanna be sure of my election!
Can you help me?
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Hi
Fist of all, why do you want to do a RSM (response surface design) ? being a central composite design, composite design in general, Box-Behken design?
- with this question I mean what do you want to achieve as a result from your experimental work:
A process/synthesis/unit operation optimization should be conducted by some steps
(1) Identify a procedure / method that operate
(2) Conduct a parameterization of the procedure, that is to identify the experimental variables that are possible to variety and the responses that can be measured (yield, selectivity, ….)
(3) Conduct an introductory screening design. In this you commonly identify the solvent, catalyst etc. that you should use. In your case you should consult. the paper by Rolf Carlson and collaborators: Strategies for solvent selection. Acta Chem Scand 1985 B39, 79-91 (and the book by Carlson see below).
When you have performed a screening design, where you should include as many variables as possible. Type of design for this purpose: I suggest you to use a fractional factorial design. By such a design you can identify which variables that are the more important and identify a preliminary optimum.
(4) The preliminary identified optimum might subsequently operate as the centre of a new design that allow you to create a predictive model that allow you to estimate: (a) coefficients for single variables, (b) coefficients for the square of each of the single variables and (c) the coefficients for two-factor interactions of the single variables. I strongly recommend to you to use a response surface design of the type central composite design. This allow you to estimate a model:
y(x1, x2, …, xk) = b0 + b1x1 + b2x2 + … + bkxk + b12x1x2 + b13x1x3 + … + b11x12 + b22x22 + … bkkxk2
Be aware that sometimes, the star points of the central composite design cannot be created; e.g. reaction time -1 (10 min)  0 (25 min) +1 (40 min) will result in that “-2” become a negative time:  -5 min.  In such cases you can solve this by change either the value of (-1) increase the reaction time, shorten the step, i.e. the (0) will be at a smaller value. You can also change the value of the star point.
Introduction of the categorical variables such as: “type of solvents”, “type of catalyst”, “type of reactor”, “type of base”,  etc. should not, from my point of view” be included in a response surface design. In fact, such variables shall be investigated by means of a screening design, where all such parameters (variables) is investigated/compared and decided before you do the response surface deign (a composite design).
Some “bibles” for statistical experimental design, screening and response surface modelling and more:
Design:
Box, G. E. P.; Hunter, J.; Hunter, W. G. Statistics for Experimenters: Design, Innovation, and Discovery, 2nd ed.; 390 Wiley: New York, 2005.
Box, G. E. P.; Draper, N. R. Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces; Wiley: New York, 1987.
Model building – regression:
Montgomery, D. C.; Peck, E. A. Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis; Wiley: New York, 1982.
Draper, N. R.; Smith, H. Applied Regression Analysis, 3rd ed.; Wiley: New York, 1998.
Optimization in synthesis:
Design and Optimization in Organic Synthesis, Second Revised and Enlarged Edition
Rolf Carlson Johan Carlson
ISBN: 9780444515278, Elsevier Science, 8th April 2005
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Modern politics has been witness to aloofness on the part of the voters when it comes to voting on the D-Day as has been highlighted in the works of many thinkers as well as the data corresponding to the elections. This is particularly true for western democracies like USA and France which went to polls recently. The downturn in the voter turnout has been discussed at length by many experts. Question is, what all reasons could be behind it?
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One reason is the belief that the various political parties are so controlled by special interests that, regardless of who wins, real social change will never be accomplished. I take the failure of the US Congress to implement single-payer, universal health care as a case in point. Research consistently shows that such a system works best. So how else, apart from politicians receiving large sums of money from corporations that would take a financial hit if single-payer health care were implemented, does one explain the reluctance by many Democrats and virtually all Republicans to adopt this model? 
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Forms of collective behavior include electrons, photons, elections, crowds, mobs, panics, terrorism acts, disaster behavior, rumors, mass hysteria, moral panics, and fads and crazes, which can be spontaneous or not. An example of stimulated (non-spontaneous, organized) collective behavior is of a social movement, designed to bring about or resist change in society.
Could collective behavior, as defined above, be modelled, mutatis mutandis (making necessary alterations while not affecting the main point at issue), by the physics of fluids? Do you know of any reference or project in this area?
For example, the viscosity of a fluid is a measure of its resistance to gradual deformation by shear stress, expressing its resistance to shearing flows, where adjacent layers move parallel to each other with different speeds. It is known that gels or fluids that are thick, or viscous, under static conditions will thin (less viscous), stay the same, or thicken more over time when shaken, agitated, sheared or otherwise stressed, with time-dependent behavior (memory) or not, as described in physics of fluids. This behavior can be quite sudden, cumulative, and at first-sight surprising or catastrophic.
NOTE: This new theory of physics of fluids applied to collective behavior is hereafter more simply called "PFACB theory" or "PCB Theory".
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Hello all,
I want to reflect on two private comments.
1. Why would a fluid model be better than a gas model for a socio-economic model of collectives?
Because a gas model would lead to a statistical treatment, while the fluid model can lead to a cause-effect model without obscuring the cause and maintaing the causation model by the conservation laws:
  • Conservation of mass
  • Conservation of energy
  • Conservation of momentum
and others, explicitly.
2. What could be shear stress in this treatment? 
In physics, it is of the same dimension as pressure. But while pressure causes compression, shear stress causes shear. You could think of it as in effect following the force direction, as an open box sitting on a horizontal, rough table (with friction) and receiving a force parallel to the table, on top of the box. Better yet, shear stress is the component of stress coplanar with a desired material cross section; shear stress arises from the force vector component parallel to that cross section. In the socio-economic case, shear stress is not just in the direction of a component of force applied on the element, but still in the direction of a component of force; in the "open box on the table" example above, the shear stress is perpendicular to the table surface, not in the direction of gravity (the table surface is  horizontal) force, but to the applied force that is perpendicular to the table top.
In a fluid, shear stress is defined as a force per unit area, acting parallel to an infinitesimal surface element. Shear stress is primarily caused by friction between fluid particles, due to fluid viscosity.
Cheers, Ed Gerck 
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The present question can be viewed in two parts, namely, the influence which religion has on the outcome of an election and the bearing which it has on the economic progression made by a country. Asking so because as per some recent studies, atheism has been associated with economic progression in some of the developed nations. Moreover, it was brought to the limelight that in countries like USA, people are increasing shunning religious beliefs thus highlighting that indeed religion and economy could very well be two sides of the coin or are they? This needs to be viewed for such countries like India, one of the most religious countries (more than 90% of the population believes in it) as well as China, one of the least religious nations (almost 70% of the population doesn't believe in any religion).
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I would agree with most of the comments above, but include the examples of Sri Lanka and Indonesia. In the 2015 election, violence erupted between two hardline Buddhist groups, the BBS and the JHU, who split their support between Rajapaksa and Sirisena. Nationalist groups make up a small percentage of the electorate, but did have an impact on a rather surprise result. In Indonesia, the recent gubernatorial election highlighted religious differences between the incumbent ethnic Chinese Christian and his Muslim challenger.
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Whilst I did my doctoral work in the field of political branding, I came across the works of various western authors who advocated adopting a consumer-oriented approach rather than a civic-oriented one for the reason that voters in western nations view their political choices akin to commercial ones. Question is, does this approach serve the purpose in a democracy like India?
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There is a whole science built around it - political marketing.
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It is a known fact that in a democratic set-up how do voters exercise their franchise to vote goes a long way with regard to how accountable the next government is going to be. In fact, the progress of a democracy is very much dependent on the right choices being made by the voters during the course of an election. In this regard, it becomes pertinent to dwell upon the various reasons which enable a voter to vote judiciously. The question is, what all factors enable a voter to vote in a rational manner during an election? This needs to be explored particularly in the case of such democracies like India which is not as much evolved (on the virtue of being relatively new) as compared to say the USA or Britain.
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The first premise of accountable voters is an educated populace-- not necessarily through formal education exclusively (although literacy is very important) but through communication of policy platforms and ideas in a clear and precise manner. If voters have been misled, or misunderstand, they may not vote consistently with their interests.
Obviously, however, there is some incentive for political parties to mislead their voters. They will use emotional or social appeals to push beyond rational voting behaviour and into tribal behaviour: associating their party with ideas like "goodness," "righteousness," or "family." They may also do the opposite, making voters associate their opponents with emotionally negative ideas.
Arguably, the best way for voters to be informed is for a functionally neutral source to report on the platforms of the parties. This should be delivered in clear, accessible, easy-to-understand language, probably not more advanced than the primary school level. 
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Economic and political activities are the two most important aspects as far as the affairs of a nation are concerned. Question is, how much interdependence these two have on the other, especially the economic activities on the political ones? Asking so because there are many instances when the economic decisions taken by the incumbent prove to be its doing or undoing in the bid for reelection. The success alleged by the incumbent or the failure as pointed out by the opposition on the economic front play major role in such a scenario.
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Whether politics influence economic condition of a nation reminds me to the traditional chicken or egg problem. Politics is about power and economics is about wealth. So what can you do with power in a bankrupt economy? Nothing, except autarchic politics, whereas the appliance of power towards the right politics helps to create a wealthy economy, which again helps to sustain and or increase power. So in a free world, politics become to be the art of the possible, which is such a skill that, according to the measure (power/politics) of the possible, knows what its wants (economy) and wants, what it can do (politics).
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When one talks about the elections which take place for electing the central legislative bodies like Parliament, it is but obvious that the campaigning associated with it would be having a pan-country dimension as compared to a regional/state-level election. The question is, how different these two modes of campaigning are to each other and how do parties approach the same?
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A classical starting point for this question would be the 'second-order election' model emerging from the works of Reif and Schmitt (EJPR 1980, e.g.). Originally developed in the context of European Parliament elections the argument should travel well to federal states...
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With time, political branding has made its presence felt in the domain of elections and this gets duly reflected in the various works of western thinkers who have opined that having a consumer-oriented approach towards elections gives the party and leader an opportunity to view elections from a consumer perspective as against the civic-oriented approach which talked about it being a civic duty of voters to vote. How much relevance these two approaches have today?
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Well no, we should not take a consumer-centered approach to election campaigns. Other sectors in society have take, such as the Higher sector in the UK and elsewhere, it and it proved to be detrimental. 
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There has been an increasing attempt towards highlighting the impact of social media in the outcome of an election. However, it really needs to be understood that impacting the outcome of the election and spreading awareness about the political parties and leaders are two different aspects which normally people consider same. It is much difficult to gauge the impact of social media on the outcome of the election for the simple reason that there are other factors, including offline campaigning, which play a crucial role in the final outcome. Question is, does their exist a mechanism by which one can measure the impact of social media on the outcome of an election?
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Hi Armit,
as you say, the interactions between social media and voting behavior are complex and also a clear differentiation between online and offline phenomena is quite impossible since social media have become a part of daily life. I think in order to measure effects it makes sense to differentiate between social media campaigning and the effects of individual networks and so-called echo chambers. Also, I would assume there are different mechanisms how social media affects voting, i.e. via promoting/ hindering political interests and via motivating/ suppressing voting behaviors.
Good luck with your research, Felix
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My just-concluded doctoral work featured the topic of political branding, a concept which is much popular in western democracies and has been extensively used in the advanced democracies like USA. I couldn't help but notice the differences, as well as the similarities which exist between the two nations as far as the notion of having a democratically elected government and the style of governance, is concerned (Presidential vs Prime Ministerial). This made me think about all the characteristics which these two democracies exhibit.
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Okay. I stand corrected on that regard. However, my question still is how similar or different are the two democracies with regard to their respective political setups apart from the Presidential system in USA and Prime Ministerialship in India.
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Anti-incumbency is something which people tend to highlight whenever elections happen in India. It has become almost a trend to blame anti-incumbency whenever an incumbent loses an election. However, people start looking for plausible reasons when an incumbent party storms back to power. The question is, does anti-incumbency reflect the mood of the electorate or not?
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I think that it would be far too easy to make this a main issue and even if so then one would need to explain why an incumbent is losing the election.
Before the mid 1960s Congress had a power monopoly at centre and in the Indian states. After that things became more complex. Indian as a very complex multi-cultural (religion, languages, ethnic groups, caste groups, rural vs urban, gender, etc) makes it difficult for an individual party to cover all cleavages in society. Parties have become rather similar and in order to e perceived different they need to become spectacular like the BJP with destroying mosques or holding holy processions throughout the country (Ram Rath Yadra). With the huge diversities governments and opposition parties often can cover only some spectra of the political landscape. This also leads to the importance of political alliances / coalitions. In the end it is often the result of clever political strategies that decides on the outcome of elections. Here we might come back to the initial question: it seems that in India it is a disadvantge to be in power. It is easier for the opposition to organize support among the very fragmented society. In many other countries the ruling party / PM / President is often believed to have a bonus / advantage, in Indian it might be a disadvantage resulting from