Election Studies - Science topic

My POTUS takes:

I think Joe Biden will be the kindest to Palestinians, out of our current options. I think Trump is and will continue as a Zionist. I predict all the other candidates will probably lose.

Sources:

Modern politics is characterized by many aspects which were not associated with traditional politics. Big data is one of them. Data mining is being done by political parties as they seek help from data scientists to arrive at various patterns to identify behavior of voters. Question is, what are the various ways in which big data is being used by modern political parties and leaders?

For a paper, I am looking at how political dynasties in India have allowed for Uttar Pradesh to produce much more female MPs in the Lok Sabha when compared to Kerala. It is counterintuitive as we would expect a more developed place like Kerala to have more female MPs. The only explanation that comes to my mind is that political dynasties allow women (who have husbands, fathers, or brothers that were MPs) to be selected as they already have some political fame in their surnames. I was wondering if there could be any other explanations for why Uttar Pradesh produces more women MPs than Kerala?

Once the campaigning is over, the election is done and results are out, one of the competing parties goes on to win the election. Question is, whether the governance of the incumbent could be seen as an extension of their campaigning carried out during the election and if it is indeed the case then what about the party which loses the election? 

As an electoral geographer I often present various electoral maps. I would like to create some contiguous cartograms in ArcGIS software but I have problems to find any geoprocessing tool that will work. If you have any advice for me I would be very greatful.

Thank you for your answers.

Best regards,

Radek

Hello. I am writing a research paper on municipal elections in Saint Petersburg. The recent elections of 2019, according to observers, were held with a large number of violations. In my work, I try to check this. But I have some questions. If I understand correctly, the elections are held using the “Multiple non-transferable vote”/Block Vote system. In other words, the voter can choose up to five candidates from the entire list, and the winners are those who received the highest number of votes in all precincts. Are there any countries with such a voting system, and open data about elections? For example, in Russia, it is possible to view data on each specific polling station where elections were held, for example, how many votes were cast for candidates, how many ballots were issued, etc. Could you recommend literature specifically about this voting system?

Modern politics has witnessed the anvil of the dual concepts of political branding and political marketing which have played crucial roles in such political events like elections, specifically, the campaigning aspect of it. Question is, how they differ from each other? The difference ought to be highlighted with regard to the practical implications arising out of the two and not merely the theoretical one.

Political branding has been a phenomenon which has come to characterize the campaigning associated with an election in modern politics. Question is, apart from an election, where else does the concept of political branding find traction in the scheme of a political party and/or leader?

It has been widely felt by those dealing with the affairs of Britain and USA that the two most prominent events of last year, namely, Brexit and the USA Presidential Election has resulted in much alienation on the part of these two major economies thereby creating an image which is of being less friendly to the outer world. Question is, the present trend is here to stay or would it give way to a better situation in future?

The social media is abuzz with a lot of action these days what with every organization worth its salt making its presence felt on social media. Question is, is the time ripe to claim that social media could very well help in gauging how effective the performance of a particular organization is? And could the same parameters be applied to political parties and leaders? Asking so because of late, social media has come to play an increasingly significant role in the build-up to the election during the campaigning phase.

What is your view in terms of manipulation of results and other factors when comparing electronic voting systems vs manual balloting?

Hello, I am currently doing research on Australian elections, using Australian Election Study datasets from 1990, 1998, 2004, 2010 and 2016. I've run a multinomial logit regression on each of them, with the DV of vote (Coalition, Labor, Greens parties), and the main IVs of religion, education level, parental vote and generation.

What elements of my coefficients do I need for accurate comparisons of these variables across time? There are a lot of significant P values, but are there acceptable differences between standard errors and that kind of stuff?

I'm also happy to post some regression outputs if that will help answer the question. Thanks!

There are many theories and studies in the domain of political branding which delve in the psychology of the voters. Question is, who could one quantify the effect of political branding with regard to helping the voters behave rationally in an election?

It is a well-known fact that the religious beliefs of voters are their personal choices. However, when it comes to voting in an election, the same plays a crucial role in the formation of opinion on the part of the voters and the political parties and leaders make a concerted attempt to influence them on the basis of their religious beliefs. Question is, how effective are the religious beliefs of voters with regard to their making election-related choices?

There have been many proponents of the concept of political branding which is basically an amalgamation of the dual concepts of politics and branding. Question is, what all activities and events as practiced and performed by the political parties and leaders would qualify to be considered under the concept of political branding? Asking this question so as to understand how well the concept of political branding could be understood in terms of these of activities.

Of late, social media platforms like Facebook is seen as an indicator of voting behavior as well as used for extensive campaigning. However, a considerable number of it is below 18 years, the legal age to vote in countries like India. According to a report published in 2014, almost 11% or 10 million of the users at that point of time were below 18 years of age. Question is, in such a scenario, how prudent it is to consider it as a valid measure to gauge voting behavior?

Modern politics has been witness to aloofness on the part of the voters when it comes to voting on the D-Day as has been highlighted in the works of many thinkers as well as the data corresponding to the elections. This is particularly true for western democracies like USA and France which went to polls recently. The downturn in the voter turnout has been discussed at length by many experts. Question is, what all reasons could be behind it?

The present question can be viewed in two parts, namely, the influence which religion has on the outcome of an election and the bearing which it has on the economic progression made by a country. Asking so because as per some recent studies, atheism has been associated with economic progression in some of the developed nations. Moreover, it was brought to the limelight that in countries like USA, people are increasing shunning religious beliefs thus highlighting that indeed religion and economy could very well be two sides of the coin or are they? This needs to be viewed for such countries like India, one of the most religious countries (more than 90% of the population believes in it) as well as China, one of the least religious nations (almost 70% of the population doesn't believe in any religion).

It is a known fact that in a democratic set-up how do voters exercise their franchise to vote goes a long way with regard to how accountable the next government is going to be. In fact, the progress of a democracy is very much dependent on the right choices being made by the voters during the course of an election. In this regard, it becomes pertinent to dwell upon the various reasons which enable a voter to vote judiciously. The question is, what all factors enable a voter to vote in a rational manner during an election? This needs to be explored particularly in the case of such democracies like India which is not as much evolved (on the virtue of being relatively new) as compared to say the USA or Britain.

Economic and political activities are the two most important aspects as far as the affairs of a nation are concerned. Question is, how much interdependence these two have on the other, especially the economic activities on the political ones? Asking so because there are many instances when the economic decisions taken by the incumbent prove to be its doing or undoing in the bid for reelection. The success alleged by the incumbent or the failure as pointed out by the opposition on the economic front play major role in such a scenario.

There are studies which highlight the role played by emotions and culture with regard to highlighting the voting preferences of voters. The question how does one measure the same, that is, quantifies them?

My just-concluded doctoral work featured the topic of political branding, a concept which is much popular in western democracies and has been extensively used in the advanced democracies like USA. I couldn't help but notice the differences, as well as the similarities which exist between the two nations as far as the notion of having a democratically elected government and the style of governance, is concerned (Presidential vs Prime Ministerial). This made me think about all the characteristics which these two democracies exhibit.

Proportional representation (PR) characterizeselectoral systems by which divisions in an electorate are reflected proportionately in the elected body. If n% of the electorate support a particular political party, then roughly n% of seats will be won by that party.

There are countries which provide for women special seats to join the parliament. 

This group of women, normally join the parliament through special criteria. They do not have constituency. Kindly help in identifying such countries. Thank you.

Respected colleagues I want to identify the relationship of {transparency and social protection} but I did not find any related research which have shown or suggested the relationship of these two variables or future research. I just want to know can I use these variables or I have to find first the research paper and have to identify the reference…… waiting of your kind response, Thanks in advance

The impacts associated with Luton carnival 

I have survey data for which there are non-representative distributions of political ideology. I want to make some comparisons between ideological groups, and need more representative numbers. What is the best way to go about doing this? Can I, for instance, use stratified random sampling on the cases I already have for the over represented group?

how to relate statistically economic growth and political instability

I am doing a research paper on history of presidential elections and my professor suggested I gather information using this resource.

Or is it possible to teach about and for citizenship education without referencing elections? A major motivation for, and backdrop to, citizenship education would appear to be the need for greater participation in normative, representative-based elections and voting. The argument is that young people do not vote in great numbers, and that they should engage more in "democracy". However, within my own research on education for democracy, I have found that the over-emphasis on focusing on voting, elections, and electoral processes can have the adverse affect of creating a disengagement from the core of citizenship in relation to democracy. Thus, I am interested to know how colleagues address questions of power relations, participation, social justice, solidarity, peace, political and media literacy, etc., all of which I would include within the rubric of thicker and more meaningful democracy, especially within the educational context, without reverting to the normative, mainstream (generally uncritical) focus on elections. Of course, I fully accept that voting and elections could be a part of the equation, especially if this involved alternative visions, critical engagement, and a full problematization of the meaning of such elections (are they even democratic, for example?). Lastly, during my decade-long research project with teacher-education students with samples in a number of countries, when discussing democracy the almost universal response was that they experienced themselves a limited, uncritical focus on just voting and elections to the behest of the more robust and messy nature of democracy in all of its dimensions.

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As many African countries are toiling to have free and fair elections, do you think electronic voting or ballot is appropriate?

I'm conducting an analysis of pre-election public hearings arranged by a non-profit organization, with a specific focus on how the roles and positions of the government and the voluntary sector are constructed during these hearings. Does anyone know of any studies related to this topic? I'm particularly interested in studies that use observational data. 

There has been an increase in the adoption and implementation of Constituency Development Fund (CDF) on the African continent. However,Ii am yet to know any country with a satisfactory CDF monitoring system and has yielded desired results. Leaders seems to be abusing it and it may actually work against the stable democracies that have emerged over the years. Any thoughts anyone?

Greetings,

We are a team of graduate students at American University’s School of International Service researching African electoral violence for a client in the federal government. We have been tasked by our client with constructing an electoral violence and instability early warning model to aid our client in predicting future conflict. We are reaching out to experts and individuals with experience surrounding elections in Africa to help define our variables, indicators, and trends in election violence. We would be extremely grateful if you would be willing to assist us in this important work. Your expertise and individual experience with Africa and elections will help us identify common trends across the board in Africa as well as indicators that are unique or specific to certain regions or states.

I am trying to find statistics for US Presidential election years 2004, 2008, and 2012. In particular I am looking for voter turnout numbers of Naturalized US citizens which is my dependent variable. My independent variable is married two family household of naturalized citizens. 

I am looking for studies that compare the accuracy of prediction markets for forecasting elections to forecasts from alternative forecasting methods (e.g., polls, expert judgment, quantitative models). 

I am interesting in studies from all countries and all types of elections that analyze forecasts of numerical election outcomes (e.g., vote-shares or seats gained in an election). I am not interested in probability forecasts such as a candidate’s chance to win an election.

The attached document shows the countries/elections for which I have already collected data. I will post the final document here once available.

Thank you very much in advance,

Andreas

Two political big forces in Sweden (social democrats and Centre-right Alliance Bloc) have made a deal against the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats. Under the deal, both parties will govern by rotation until 2022. Such a pact is legitimate, but is allowed to designate the parties sharing power for more than a parliamentary mandates? Does this new form of agreement a threat to democracy’s model of Sartori and to the election? Is possible to found such practices in other countries (in the last two decades) where two political groups determine the future government despite election results?

I am trying to calculate the effective number of parties, based on seats (not votes), for several countries. Currently, I am stuck on the question of how to deal with the residual "other" category often found in seat data. Usually, this is not a big problem, since it is usually only a handful of legislators, and so I have regularly treated it as a party and input it directly into the Taagepera and/or Golosov measures. However, I have found some cases (e.g. Brazil 1962) where the "other" seats account for nearly half of all seats. Clearly, not making an adjustment would artificially deflate the ENP value. But is there a preferred solution? I haven't been able to find one. Thank you.

One of my students is working on Electoral behaviour in Lahore. She wants to compare general and bye elections in Lahore (she can change the focus of the study at the moment). Kindly suggest some useful readings in this regard, outlining determinants of the electoral behaviour and methodology to be used. 

Furthermore, Kindly suggest some scale that has already been developed to study electoral behaviour. 

Hi, I am looking for some empirical data (survey) dealing with public (or expert) confidence in electoral system(s) (preferably data on the trust in systems' mechanisms, not the whole electoral process - but it depends on the formulation of the question)... any suggestions? Thank you in advance.

I will measure 'political interest' in a big survey about communication and public engagement. However, the most measurements that are around for me seem to very simplistic, using one single question or following the big election studies, two or or three item question. Has anyone found or used a more sophisticated or other simply different way of measuring political interest? Thanks a lot.

Parliamentary elections are under commencement in India. After tireless efforts of election commission voting percentage is surprising.

Urban citizen are considered to be more active and aware about their rights compared to the rural ones. But, picture is totally changes when it comes to right to vote.

Mumbai (the biggest and richest city of India) only 27% voters casted their votes while in rural areas, voting figures are exceeding 80%.

Are educated people taking democracy for granted?

It is worth having an academic discussion on the estimate of total expenses (as the cost of a democracy) and finding a way to:

1. Minimize the expenditure (and thereby lessening the burden on common man); and

2. Make all expenses accountable (recorded in books).

As we go by the records and report, USA and India are the costliest democracies (as we consider poll expenses) of the world. As we consider, both accounted and unaccounted expenditure, India’s expenses has surpassed that of USA. It is easy to calculate and compare accounted-expenditure, but how to calculate or estimate the unaccounted (black-money) expenditure?

We invite scholars and academicians to please come up with their inputs/ answers, on the above mentioned issues. Please refer the attachment, for further details.

I am very interested in what may be called alternative voting systems. These interests cover proportional representation, direct democracy, referenda, technological advances in voting systems, etc. Does anyone else have interests in these areas or have any information they can share with me such as publications in these areas, academics working in these areas?

Is there any book or other resources that describes the ststistical aspects of the methodologies and analysis adopted in pre-election surveys conducted before the election to forecast election results?