Earthquake - Science topic

Israel needs immediate establishment of a short-term earthquake forecasting network.

Alexandr Yagodin <predict.y@gmail.com>

15:13 (29 минут назад)

кому: Zohar, yoram, ittaik, yor, ia, v_mada

Dear Director of the Institute of Geology, prof. Zohar Gvirtsman. I am a Master of Geophysics. Consultant on the short-term forecast method. I inform you that despite the widespread use of the EEWS and TRUAA methods, these methods were applied without knowledge of geophysics and the stages of earthquake development, without knowledge of the time standards necessary to save human lives, especially the lives of children in children's institutions. This method can only be used by a person who is ready to lead the country to great sacrifices. Only the immediate implementation of short-term earthquake forecasting can save the lives of our children. I demand an immediate consideration of this issue in the presence of the prosecutor's office and the academic council. I urge you to consider the desire and possibility of creating a laboratory for short-term earthquake forecasting in Israel. There is an urgent need to establish a short-term earthquake forecasting network. I am willing to work under contract as a consultant using my method. If my methodology is not implemented, Israel may suffer significant losses. Methods that simply notify people after the earthquake has started are effective in cases of tsunamis and other related disasters. However, for earthquakes, especially in epicentral zones, only an accurate short-term forecast can save lives. I am the only expert in this method. I am ready to demonstrate the conclusions of the best scientists in the world. Time is running out. Earthquakes can start in winter, and the casualties can exceed those caused by war. Sincerely, Alexander Yagodin Master of Geophysics. predict.y@gmail.com

Simply put. A reinforced concrete structure consists of vertical parts ( columns, walls, large walls, shafts ) and horizontal parts ( beams and slabs ) connected at the nodes.

In an earthquake the inertia of the slab and beams creates a lateral force which pushes the walls and columns

The walls and columns resist this lateral force which tries to overturn them on one side and bend them on the other.

Their reaction to bending is due to their connection to the beams at the nodes to prevent them from overturning and to the reaction of their trunk to prevent them from bending.

So the dynamics of the walls and columns are due to the strength of their cross-section and the strength of the beams.

Walls and columns primarily have a tendency to overturn but they are held by the beams and then the trunk starts to bend.

The bending moment and the overturning moment of the walls create moments at the nodes which deform the beam trunk and break it.

Here we see that the reaction of the structure to the earthquake comes from the wall and beam cross sections around the nodes.

In large earthquakes this reaction is not enough and the cross sections usually of the beams break.

Another failure can come from wall buckling and from inadequate strength of the materials.

So then we have a big problem because the walls are failing. If the beams fail, the house doesn't fall because the reinforcement holds it together.

But if the walls fail and even if the crack is oblique the house will collapse.

This is why civil engineers build weaker beams so that they break first and energy is dissipated.

And I come up with the following suggestion.

In order for a structure not to collapse in an earthquake, it must

1.Increase the strength of the cross-sections without increasing the mass.

2.Stop the bending of the walls which breaks them and transfers moments to the nodes and also breaks the beams

3.Stop the bending of the walls that breaks the beams.

If the walls have strong cross sections and do not break, if they do not bend, and if they do not overturn, then they will not break the beams.

So then we'll have defeated the earthquake.

To make the wall frame strong so it doesn't break and bend, I apply compression to both ends by applying pre-tension with tendons and hydraulic jacks.

To keep the walls from toppling, the same pre-tension tendons that apply compression are, for the first time in the world, embedded into the earth's soil using a large twist-off.

In this way the wall is self-contained and does not need the beams to prevent it from overturning and bending.

On the other hand, the beams are not stressed by the bending and twisting of the wall, so they do not break.

For the first time the ground participates in receiving the forces of inertia by preventing 80% of the earthquake tensions circulating in the body of the load-bearing structure.

It also increases the wall strength by 31% with respect to the base shear stress.

Dear ResearchGate Forum Administration.

Dear colleagues.

I am addressing geophysicists and investors: those who wish to become the head of the Center for the Short-Term Earthquake Forecast Network.

You understand that due to more severe climate change on the planet, catastrophic earthquakes are possible this winter.

You see that the Earthquake Genesis model has been described, the theory of short-term forecasting works.

The tests of the short-term forecast have been successfully completed under the supervision of experts and the expert council.

The scientific examination of the Earthquake Genesis has been completed successfully.

Unfortunately, Russian officials do not want to admit that the conclusions of the RES under the leadership of the Ex-President of IASPEI - Professor A.V. Nikolaev (2006, 2012), are recognized by both the IPE RAS (2016) and the meeting of the RES Council (2015). Officials do not deny the conclusions of Nikolaev and Rogozhin. Officials say that they will not answer the President of Russia on a clearly posed question. Moreover, these officials offered to cooperate and deliberately sabotaged the work on this topic.

If you support the creation of the Global Forecast Network, uniting Germany, Austria, Portugal, the countries of the Vrancea zone, and other countries, I ask you to contact me urgently, since the forecast requires time for calibrate the stations. The General Director of the enterprise will be the one chosen by the representatives of the participating countries.

If we do not make it in time, there will be great casualties.

With respect.

Alexander Yagodin.

Уважаемые коллеги, организационный комитет. редакторы.

Обычно конференция несет новое в науку. Но иногда конференция делает несколько шагов назад и наука гибнет, люди гибнут.

Какая цель вашего обзора, написанная в статье? Вы хотите чтоб количество жертв землетрясений в этом году превысило число погибших в землетрясении 2023 года?

Вы видели описание Генезиса землетрясений?

Вы знаете, что землетрясение 2023 года можно было точно прогнозировать за 10 часов до начала толчков?

Народ Вашей страны хочет жертв или народу нужен точный классический краткосрочный прогноз землетрясений, чтоб никто больше не погиб?

Я демонстрирую Вам, что метод создан и успешно прошел испытания.

Вы можете видеть, что модераторы СМИ России признали мой материал.

Dear colleagues, organizing committee, editors.

Usually, a conference brings something new to science. But sometimes a conference takes a few steps back and science dies, people die.

What is the purpose of your review, written in the article? Do you want the number of earthquake victims this year to exceed the number of those killed in the 2023 earthquake?

Have you seen the description of the Genesis of Earthquakes?

Do you know that the 2023 earthquake could be accurately predicted 10 hours before the tremors began?

Do the people of your country want victims or do they need an accurate classic short-term earthquake forecast so that no one else dies?

I am demonstrating to you that the method has been created and successfully tested.

You can see that the moderators of the Russian media have recognized my material.

( https://ria.ru/20240904/putin-1970479129.html )

CONGRESS TITLE 6. INTERNATIONAL DICLE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH AND INNOVATION CONGRESS DATE AND PLACE 25-26 MAY 2024 DIYARBAKIR/TURKEY ONLINE PRESENTATIONS ORGANIZATION ISARC INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND ART RESEARCH CENTER GENERAL COORDINATOR Uzm. Yasemin AĞAOĞLU COORDINATOR Gamze KÖYMEN EDITOR Assoc.Prof.Dr. Gözde Özge ÖNDER Dr.Rosy Dhall ORGANIZATION COMMITTEE

Prof. Dr. Sadhna JAİN

Prof. Dr. Akil Ali Doç.

Dr. Ahmet AKKÖSE Doç.

Dr. Dinara FARDEEVA Doç.

Dr. Elif Feyza TOPDAŞ Doç.

DR. Jasmin LATOVİÇ Doç.

Dr. Malik YILMAZ Doç.

Dr. Serkan ŞENOCAK Doç.

Dr.Tamer TURGUT

Dr. Ayşenur AKBULUT

Dr. Burcu AYDEMİR ŞENAY

Dr. Erkan SARSICI

how to observe the hysteretic energy consumption for a parrticular frame element

According to Newton's third law, for there to be a balance of forces, for every action there must be an equal reaction.

Here's the strange thing about engineers.

The action of a large earthquake is three to four times the weight-reaction of the building, and they expect there to be an equilibrium of forces without bolting the structure to the ground. I offer them an extra force coming from the ground to balance the seismic action and they are still wondering if they want it!

1.A tall elastic structure that rests on the ground, consisting of small cross-sectional columns and beams, will never topple over, because their trunks do not have the necessary force to rotate it.

What will happen is the bases of the columns will remain glued to the ground, while the cross-sections of the beams and columns around the nodes will first elastically and then inelastically bend and break.

See first photo

2.A tall rigid structure made entirely of reinforced concrete such as prefabricated houses has the potential to topple.

See second photo.

3.A high rigid structure made entirely of reinforced concrete such as prefabricated houses, if it is placed on the foundation ground with ground anchors, will neither break nor topple.

and costs half the money. Simple things to beat the earthquake and bring the cost down.

Watch video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6og4VWFcGA

I read here and there trying to understand the mechanism that throws buildings into the earthquake.

Civil engineers, professors of earthquake engineering, regulations, trying to make buildings invulnerable to earthquake.

And yet, despite all the science, when there is a big nearby earthquake the structures are destroyed and we are flattened.

Things to me are simple. Too simple. But they don't want to listen. I challenge any engineer who wants any professor to a dialogue about what I say below. I'll say them simply so that even someone who is not an expert can understand them.

Let's take 30 CDs placed on top of each other on a table.

If we move the table abruptly the 30 CDs will slide one on top of the other and the pile of CDs will be shattered.

If on these 30 CDs we place toothpicks on them for legs, the column of 30 CDs will become much taller, and with a slight shake of the table it will collapse more easily than before.

If we now replace the CDs with the building plates and the toothpicks with the columns, we will have a 30-storey building.

We all now understand the simple mechanism that brings down the stack of 30 CDs and the 30-story apartment building.

Action - reaction, or acceleration - inertia.

This is the problem.

What is the solution?

The solution is so simple to save us from the earthquake and all the officials pretend not to understand when I tell them.

Now why they don't listen, don't answer, or pretend not to understand ask them yourself.

They do not answer me.

The solution is this.

If inside the hole of the 30 CD stack we nail a 45 nail into the table, then move the table as much as you want, the 30 CDs will stay on top of each other. That's the solution to the earthquake.

The nailed nail on the table stopped the inertia of the 30 CDs.

I did the same thing.

I bolted the lift shaft of the structure to the ground instead of nailing the nail to the table and checked the inelastic deformation of the structure in the rocking of the earthquake.

What is the difference with today's constructions? In the method I propose the soil participates by taking up the inertia of the structure and dissipating it into the soil before breaking the beams.

Who will bear moral responsibility for the deaths of thousands of people in the event of an earthquake?

Weeks and months remain before the onset of strong earthquakes that bring death to people.

Can the guilty be legally charged?

“You cannot predict [an earthquake] in the sense that there is no developed theory. There are many hypotheses, one might say, scientific ones, but these are still phenomenological models of earthquake preparation. On this basis, it is impossible to build an earthquake prediction system that would be comparable to, say, a weather forecast. This is one side of the matter - that there is no developed quantitative theory of preparation <...> In fact, the trouble with all the signs [of earthquakes] is that sometimes they are observed, but an earthquake does not occur. Which is just as bad as the fact that an earthquake occurs, but they are not observed. Why do I think the first one is very bad? Because false alarms that can spread in such a situation, and panic undermine confidence in this, as in some kind of serious matter, ”said Ruben Eduardovich.

Why does Tatevosyan lie so shamelessly?

If he does not agree with Rogozhin and Nikolaev, then let him prove it openly!

«Нельзя предвидеть [землетрясение] в том смысле, что не существует разработанной теории. Есть много гипотез, можно сказать, научных, но это все-таки феноменологические модели подготовки землетрясения. На этом основании нельзя построить систему прогноза землетрясения, которая была бы сопоставима, скажем, с прогнозом погоды. Это одна сторона дела – то, что нет разработанной количественной теории подготовки <…> На самом деле беда всех признаков [землетрясений] заключается в том, что иногда они наблюдаются, а землетрясение не происходит. Что так же плохо, как и то, что землетрясение происходит, а они не наблюдаются. Почему я первое считаю очень плохим? Потому что ложные тревоги, которые в такой ситуации могут распространяться, и паника подрывают доверие к этому, как к какому-то серьезному делу», – рассказал Рубен Эдуардович.

Зачем Татевосян так бессовестно лжет?

Если он не согласен с Рогожиным и Николаевым, то пусть докажет это открыто!

Post-tensioning at the edges of the walls and embedding the tendons in the foundation soil.

Ground acceleration creates inertia of the mass, inertia with height and articulation create torque, torque creates rotation.

But what does the torque rotate? Does it rotate the entire building or does it rotate the walls and columns?

There are the walls and columns that are vertical and there are the beams and slabs that are horizontal.

All of them are connected together at the nodes.

The rotation of the trunk of the walls also lifts the beams upwards.

If the beams resist lifting the building and turning it around on itself then there will be building overturning.

Usually this overturning occurs in buildings with very small footprints, many floors and with strong walls and beams.

But if the walls and beams do not have the strength to rotate the building, then the entire area of the base of the building remains on the ground and what rotates is each wall and column of the structure, sometimes to the right and sometimes to the left.

This wall rotation breaks the beams and the building collapses.

The elastic or inelastic deformation of the frame of the walls and columns affects and elastically or inelastically deforms the beams to which they are connected at the nodes and is the second reason for the deformation of the beams that cause them to break and the structure to fall. So 1. the bending of the walls and columns and 2. the elastic or inelastic bending of the trusses is what breaks the beams.

If we want to stop the collapse of structures we must do the following.

1.Embed the walls in the foundation soil with ground anchors to stop them from rotating and breaking the beams.

2.We need to apply artificial compression to the walls, through post tensioning, to make them stiff to prevent them from easily deforming and transferring moments to the beams, and dynamic to resist the moments.

These are two simple things I do, and it is my recommendation that civil engineers do them as well, and no structure will ever be brought down by an earthquake again.

To embed in the ground we need strong anchors and I am trying to perfect these experimentally.

I ask Chinese seismologists to inform me: who should I contact to create a joint Forecast Center?

I do not hide that the beginning of my work was connected with the successful forecast of the earthquake in 1975 in Haicheng, Liaoning Province. I continued this research and found the theory of earthquake genesis and the method of short-term earthquake forecasting by monitoring the Kozyrev-Yagodin wave.

It will be fair if we create an Earthquake Forecast Center with Chinese seismologists.

Sincerely.

Alexander Yagodin.

Китайских сейсмологов я прошу сообщить: с кем мне связаться, чтоб создать совместный Центр прогноза?

Я не скрываю, что начало моей работе было связано с удачным прогнозом землетрясения в 1975 г. в г. Хайчэн, провинция Ляонин. Я продолжил эти исследования и нашел теорию Генезиса землетрясений и метод краткосрочного прогноза землетрясений мониторингом волны Козырева-Ягодина.

Будет справедливо, если Центр прогноза землетрясений мы сделаем с Китайскими сейсмологами.

С уважением.

Александр Ягодин.

My questions are about the calculation of Site Fundamental Frequency using Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) based on the Fourier amplitude spectrum:

As the distance from the source of the earthquake increases, the difference between the acceleration of the horizontal and vertical components becomes very large, and by dividing these two values, no matter how large the horizontal component is, when divided by the vertical component, its effect is very small. How can this effect be explained?

Is retrofitting buildings the best method and a good way for humans to deal with earthquakes in fault zones of the earth's crust?

The retrofitting technique using base isolation has large isolated buildings in Armenia and Japan, which has one of the highest potentials for retrofitting conventional civil structures in the world. It is second only to hospitals in the world as apartment blocks and vital facilities such as schools. Since 1995, 56 buildings and structures in Armenia have been designed using foundation or roof insulation systems. From these designed buildings, the total number of built buildings. Among them there are baths, private residences, school buildings, clinic and hospital buildings, business centers, hotels and apartment buildings. The number of seismic occupants along with it, SILRSB with different shapes and dimensions as well as with damping (low, medium and high) design and more than 5000 SILRSB devices were produced and tested locally and used in construction. it placed. I did them. In Iran, the techniques of de-bricking and replacing it with unilite are strengthening the foundation, using strong foundations, correct concreting, and placing reinforced and lightweight concrete in buildings. Also using a thick beam. Its width and thickness are basic and strong, and in the walls, reinforcement is used in the cross walls and lightening and flexibility. However, the method of improving and strengthening the floors of buildings, which is the insulation and strengthening of the floors of buildings, is still not used in Iran, and this is a big defect in Iran, so that when an earthquake or danger occurs, such as Japan and Armenia, the buildings are isolated and low-rise, and the bottom of the columns have pistons and divergents for impact, so that during an earthquake, natural rubber and steel springs and pistons play and prevent falling.

Is it possible to make the fault resistant and prevent it from breaking?

There are different ways to prevent the vibration of faults. According to most geologists, the thing that causes the fault to rupture and the strong value of the fault and the energy to leave the earthquake center from the fault and the L or Law waves from the Earth's cycle is the pressure over the fault over millions of years. And most importantly, the infiltration of water, moisture, and cold into the faults occurs mostly in the cold season of the year, such as autumn, winter, and spring, as well as in the early morning and at night. and cause the energy inside them to be released, and check this over the time series of earthquakes over several years, we understand the cause of cold and water penetration into the faults, especially at night and early in the morning when the weather gets colder, this rupture There are more faults in the early morning and most of the earthquakes happen in the early morning and from 4 am to 6 am or from 9 pm to 2 am. Easier to underground and faults. And now geologists have realized that humans themselves can create earthquakes, that is, artificial earthquakes through 3 or 4 methods. For example, in the faults and in the parts where there are displacements and displacements in the folded layers of the earth, by digging Amin wells and injecting water pressure into these wells, they penetrate into the layers inside the faults and cause the release of earth's energy and rupture. A fault was created and the center of the artificial earthquake was created, so that it did not shake too much and stopped it from constantly shaking. By filling it with reinforced concrete, it becomes like nails in the ground, which can prevent the faults from breaking, because it is also mentioned in the Holy Qur'an. that mountains are like nails in the earth because mountains prevent the earth from shaking and we humans can create artificial nails in the earth and prevent faults from forming and it is not only nature that has nails like mountains, humans themselves Costs can cause a fault with these nails and tighten them and prevent them from constantly shaking. Of course, this experiment was done by geologists in the Texas region of the United States in 1946 in the Texas region of the United States, when the oil well was at a low depth and they had to dig a well next to the oil well to inject water or a solution of water and salt. cause the well oil to rise; after a while they saw; An earthquake occurred in the Texas region of America for a week, and then geologists realized that the injection of salt and water solution in the anticline region of the region, where there was also a fault, caused the rupture of the faults and caused an artificial earthquake in the region and the release of energy, and this earthquake It shows that humans can also cause earthquakes. Of course, earthquakes can be caused by other methods, one is like exploding a bomb on a fault. Like the bomb explosion in Mallard Karaj area in Alborz province in 1377 at 2 o'clock in the afternoon of Tahar, 5 provinces that were on the Mesha fault shook and everyone felt it because with the explosion of this bomb which was for testing in the military area, it suddenly exploded and took responsibility They were killed and injured, but because it was on the Mesha fault, and this fault starts about 400 kilometers from Abik Qazvin and continues to the north of Semnan, it caused the fault to vibrate and release energy, and maybe there are other ways of fault rupture, for example, using There are many dams in the area of ​​faults and folds of the earth where there are dips and anticlines. Because the dams intensify the infiltration of water into the earth. Of course, other methods have also been proposed, such as using waste and sewage, which causes more environmental destruction, because burying waste and sewage at fault sites, even though it has water, leads to more environmental destruction on the ground. Therefore, the fault can be broken and strong concrete and cement can be created in it and sewn. But all this is a theory, no country has done this yet and it is only a theory.

What research or suggestions do you have regarding estimating the amount of destruction of buildings in an urban area after an earthquake with spectral and radar images and PSInSAR and DEM of the region?

How to make buildings resistant to earthquakes?

Now in Iran, according to my suggestion, Unilit roof is used in the roofs of residential and office buildings, which is very light. I took this suggestion in an article for the seismological organization in Tehran and gave 14 suggestions to prevent the Tehran earthquake, including 2 They implemented it. One of them removed the bricks from the roof of residential and office buildings and put unilite and poured concrete on top of it, which is very resistant because there is a round rod inside the bits and it was mixed with concrete, and I also said that in metal buildings from 7 or 8 should be used next to the walls because it makes the Masguni houses stronger and also 2 parking spaces should be used under the buildings, like palm trees or dates, which have deep roots and will not fall during an earthquake. Buildings must have deep roots and also in the science of retrofitting structures, divergence is used, that is, natural or artificial rubber is used under the pillars of the houses, and steel springs are used in the middle, so that during an earthquake, the building, like a car or A car that has a spring and the springs play, the building goes up and down but does not fall, and this is a building engineering science that makes buildings resistant to earthquakes and natural disasters. And secondly, through the injection of water and salt solution, the energy of the faults can be removed. Because it comes from the earth's core, which has 6000 degrees Celsius of heat. At any moment, this heat transfers to the surface of the earth. Therefore, the energy inside the earth must be removed, and by transferring the water and salt solution that all the oil extraction companies have, which is known as the injection of water and salt solution, like a tiny needle that is inserted into a balloon so that the balloon does not burst, we humans can create an artificial earthquake. Let's prevent the earthquake explosion and create an artificial earthquake ourselves and release the pressure inside the earth. And 3, we should not build residential or office buildings where there is a fault line, because the buildings are heavy and the taller and bigger they are, the more pressure is placed on the faults. So either we have to build a single floor or not at all to prevent an earthquake from happening.

Wisam Fawzi added an answer

I saw that this technique is used in most Iranian structures and my personal opinion is a successful technique.

Syria has been suffering from a senseless, devastating war for more than 14 years, in which the combatants did not respect any sanctity of humans, trees, animals, cities, archaeological, historical, and even religious sites. The impact on the environment was very violent, through the use of heavy weapons and explosives of all kinds, the destruction of agricultural lands and forests by uprooting and felling trees, the loss of biodiversity, water and sanitation systems, and the pollution of the air and soil with heavy metals such as mercury, arsenic and lead, which are produced by weapons and their remnants. Of solid waste and mines, effects that may last for decades, causing permanent damage to the ecosystem, in addition to the presence of a huge number of unexploded explosives that explode and cause the death of dozens of civilians daily, in addition to the Corona pandemic in 2021 and 2022, and the devastating earthquake that struck Syria on 6 February 2023. It greatly destroyed cities and towns, in addition to the destruction of infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, companies, and factories, which contributed to a severe deterioration in the level of humanitarian conditions, especially food security. All of the above doubled the pressure on the environment through unjust cutting. For forests to use their wood, and illegal hunting of animals, and increased the government’s inability to meet the requirements of economic and social growth and development, and take into account environmental requirements. In this paper, we address the current state of the Syrian economy, the damage caused by military and security operations, the decline in agricultural production, air, soil and water pollution, the spread of oil pollution, and illegal fishing. We reached a basic conclusion, which is that the senseless and destructive Syrian war has affected the environment in a devastating and catastrophic manner, and that its negative environmental, economic, social, and even political effects will continue for a long period of time. Among the most important recommendations is to achieve real concerted regional and international efforts to stop the devastating and ongoing war, and to work to mobilize international support (technical and financial) to overcome the devastating effects of the environment and climate left by this war, because these catastrophic environmental effects will not be limited to Syria, but rather their repercussions will be on the region and the world.

Keywords: war, environment, air pollution, soil pollution, water pollution, forests, biodiversity, economic impacts, social impacts.

Hi everyone,

I'm working on a project related to seismic risk analysis and I am searching for online tools that provide hazard curves and hazard disaggregation for various locations around the world.

I'm familiar with the USGS Earthquake Hazard tools. However, I'd like to explore options from other countries or research institutions.

Examples of specific tools or resources you've found helpful would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks in advance for your insights!

Sincerely

Babak Ghods

How much radial distance should be considered when preparing an earthquake catalogue for Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis? What is the reason behind consideration of that distance? Is there any particular formula or standard distance?

what steps do we need to perform the fire analysis on the steel structure already subjected to earthquake in Abaqus?

Earthquake time forecast!!!

Is the source of the earthquake from the ground? Is the source of the earthquake from the sky? I will reply in 24 hours, but I would like to know your opinion.

I propose that seismologists in the Middle East zone join forces for peace and security for those living in all countries of the Middle East. I am ready to create a united Short-Term Forecast Network Center based on my patent.

From Israel, I cannot write separately to seismologists in some countries (you understand why). Therefore, all correspondence will initially be open in this topic. When we create an enterprise in one of the leading countries with the approval of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, then we will decide where to organize the training Academy. First, I recommend reading book_KaY_ENG_FINAL.pdf

Вы хотите, чтоб люди погибали в землетрясениях?

Вы видели: у меня за двое суток до землетрясения на Тайване был надежный предвестник - аномалия KaY-волны.

Сегодня я проверил наличие аномалии в Китае. Она была, хотя и не очень большая.

Одновременно, я увидел "дальнюю аномалию". Где-то снова тряхнет. Будут жертвы.

Но я не могу давать прогноз и защитить жизни с одной станцией. Нужно не меньше 5 - 6 станций.

Что делать? Будем смотреть, как гибнут люди?

Increasing rate of Earthquakes.

I am searching time history data for turkey earthquake 2023. If anyone have any reference, kindly share.

Are there investors on the forum?

The theory of the Genesis of earthquakes has been created.

Based on this theory, the main fields, the main forces involved in the development of earthquakes, are determined.

The participation of the same fields in the creation of anomalies and in the creation of the earthquake itself ensures 100% reliability. The low speed of the wave that creates an earthquake ensures high accuracy in determining the location, start and end time, and the strength of a future earthquake.

This makes it possible to save people's lives.

This makes it possible to receive high income by reducing the losses of countries in earthquakes.

This gives sustainable growth through the development of the Global Earthquake Prediction Network.

I did everything I could. No one will ever exceed the number of positive opinions I have received.

It's not because I'm a "genius".

This is because there is no point in creating a collection of positive conclusions. I had to do this because I worked alone.

The institutions of Israel hated me because I am a "Russian Jew" who dared to create a patent.

The Academy of Russia hates me because the Expert Council of the RAS itself recognized my results and recommended starting implementation.

And now what? Everything you need has been created.

People will die in hundreds of thousands because no one wants to implement?

INVESTORS, AU,

DIRECTOR, AU.

Do you want to do something important and useful?

I'm 76 and oncology. Who wants to become a leader and get the knowledge that I have accumulated in 20 years?

Monthly probabilistic analysis map of earthquake with a magnitude>4 in Iran (from March 23 to April 23, 2024) Applied Research Institute of Natural Disasters and Risk Management, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

1. Fire 2. Earthquake 3. Flood

But the big bill comes from 4. not maintaining them. How can we maintain the structures if we can't?

Because the buildings will start falling down on their own.

Insulation. We cover everything. We cover everything with external insulation and plasterboard. External walls, ceilings, load-bearing structure made of reinforced concrete, all covered with insulation and plasterboard.

From the inside, plasterboard on ceilings and walls

What a nice coolness, but there goes the visual control.

1.And there's an earthquake. How do I see the crack to repair it? In the next earthquake either the crack will get bigger or the ceiling will come down on our heads. In corner columns you can't see any failure from the inside because the inside of the column is covered by the masonry.

2.And rusting an iron breaks the concrete overlay and the concrete and steel cooperation is lost How do I repair something I don't see; neither in the ceiling nor in the column?

3.Catch a fire We will burn like candles. Do you know how nice styrofoam burns?

mean how to reduce lateral vibration during earthquake or wind load using AI

in my last latest paper on earthquake related to Turkey-Syria earthquake , the doi number is types incorrect. How do I correct this?

Madam/sir,

I have downloaded the earthquake data from NCS and USGA keeping the enter at Darbhanga, Bihar, India. I have to do the delcustering of this catalogue? Have anyone have a matlab programme for this or which method is suitable for the c=earthquake catalogue of this region?

To deal with a strong earthquake what is best.

1. To anticipate the earthquake and flee our homes to avoid being killed, or

2. To build strong structures unscathed in the earthquake ?

In an active orogenic belt, earthquake occurs both in hinterland and foreland, or in different locations of foreland thrust system. if the occurrences of earthquakes obey a certain rule?

Why did countries build many dams for themselves in their country and made the Euphrates and Tigris rivers dry and waterless in Syria, Iraq and Iran and bring dust to this country?

As you know, today the role of water in Kishreh is vital, and as the famous saying goes, the future war will be a water war. And this issue makes some countries only look after the interests of their own country and build many dams on rivers that cause environmental problems for neighboring countries. They ask us what did you do for your neighbor? Now, for example, the countries are Muslim, but we don't know that their own interests are so much more important that they don't think about their neighbors? Don't these governments want to answer their neighbors? Isn't one of the factors that caused the earthquake to collect a lot of water behind the dams? What caused these waters to penetrate the famous faults and humans themselves to accelerate the cause of the earthquake? Because earthquake science has proven that water causes earthquakes. If you want to give an example, in 1945, after the Second World War, in the Texas region, because the oil well was old and they had to extract the oil from the bottom of the well, they dug a well next to the oil well and injected the water under pressure and saw tomorrow. A 3-4 Richter earthquake occurred and this was according to geologists, if water penetrates the faults, it causes the earth's faults to rupture and cause earthquakes, which means that we humans can also cause earthquakes ourselves. And we don't have to wait for an earthquake by nature. Now I just want to ask this question to all respected and dear countries, isn't it better for us humans to help each other to live more easily on this earth? Let's be friends with each other and be respectful and dear to both creatures and humans in this dear world that God has given us as a gift, and let's put aside various wars and be friends with each other. and help each other Let's be like Cyrus the Great, who respected all nations, and be like Saadi and Rumi, who said: The children of Adam are members of each other. What part of the body has hurt, time has not spared the other parts. God willing

Dear colleagues

Good morning. I have noticed that in the few recent years extreme natural phenomena are more frequent than before (see file attached). Is this assumption correct? Please comment (photos are welcome).

Best regards

Ioannis Kamvisis

How to make buildings resistant to earthquakes?

And then we can discuss again. First of all, we can take effective measures to fix the faults, for example, with concrete poles that have reinforced concrete, i.e. put round bars inside the concrete, and inside the fields that we dug with wells and water solution and We strongly injected salt into the faults and the earth's energy was removed. We can use the concrete that has a network of round bars that are covered with strong concrete. We can continue to sew the faults and make the faults resistant. Of course, this work requires both accurate topographical maps and maps of the ground where the faults have been precisely identified, which are the exact faults, whether they are main faults or minor and small faults, under what conditions in the geomorphological and topographical maps and Where is the GAS map located and where are the cities next to this fault map? Of course, seismological engineers should cooperate with geologists, mineralogists and environmentalists.

2- And also in the proposal, I should mention that it is important for the people of cities and villages to be aware of the map of the faults and where each person's building is located and to know exactly how far it is from the fault. Because in the science of seismology, if it is 100 meters or 200 meters away from the center of the earthquake or fault, the destruction of the building is more. Because earthquake waves are (SPL) earthquakes which are surface waves cause the destruction of buildings, and if the building is 100 meters or 200 meters away, due to the wave that is small at first, then it gets stronger and then finally, this wave decreases, and according to seismological calculations, if the building is 100 meters away from the epicenter, the intensity of destruction is greater. So we have to inform people.

3- In tall buildings, we must inform people that they should never be in the stairs or elevators during an earthquake. Because during an earthquake, the first place to be destroyed is the staircase and the elevator, and also during an earthquake, the building's electricity is cut off and the people who are inside the elevator are stuck. is more Or in the open bathroom and toilet is better. Or inside the closet is better. For example, during the Bam earthquake in Kerman, a mother and daughter survived for 3 days and nights in a closet.

How to make buildings resistant to earthquakes?

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Is climate change directly related to other natural hazards on the planet?

As you know, terrible and dangerous earthquakes happen every year, and perhaps the most dangerous one was in Turkey last year. Because he had built huge dams on the rivers of his country and the same factor, the water behind the dams had increased, and the intrusion of water on the Torres and Anti-Torres faults on the Ararat mountains in Turkey is considered the cause of the earthquake. . Because today, geologists and seismologists have come to the conclusion that water plays an important role in causing earthquakes, and the penetration of water into the fault and its subduction and subduction layers is the cause of artificial and induced earthquakes, and this experiment in the region Texas, United States of America, it has been proven that by injecting water and water and salt solution in the oil region of Texas, America, earthquakes of magnitude 3 and 5 have been caused. We will release the energy inside the earth. It means that humans themselves will play a role in causing earthquakes. Now the question is that we humans, with this knowledge, why are we storing water on the faults again when there is a possibility of earthquakes in the future? Is it not possible to inject water inside the faults with calculated planning so that the internal pressure of the faults is released slowly and free people from the danger of earthquakes? Isn't it time to get rid of the dangers of earthquakes?

While traditional science deals with supposedly predictable phenomena such as gravity, electricity or chemical reactions, there is also Chaos Theory which deals with non-linear things that are virtually impossible to predict or control, such as turbulence, weather, the stock market, our brain states and so on.

When there is an earthquake there are too many unpredictable - unpredictable chaos factors in the behavior of the ground and the structure that change the stress measure of each individual structure.

Low-rise structure, mid-rise structure and high-rise structure react differently to the multiple frequencies of ground displacement reaching below the structure.

The direction of the earthquake is unknown, the ground acceleration reaching under the structure and determining the force of the earthquake is unknown, the exact content of the seismic excitation frequencies is unknown, the duration of the earthquake is unknown, a structure can withstand high acceleration for a short duration or low acceleration for a long duration, but cannot withstand high acceleration for a long duration, the magnitude of the earthquake is unknown, the distance from the epicentre of the earthquake to the structure is unknown, the focal depth of the earthquake is unknown, the composition of the ground between the structure and the earthquake which transmits the energy of the earthquake is unknown, e.g. e.g. soft soil increases ground displacement four to five times compared to rock. Even the maximum possible accelerations given by seismologists, which determine the seismic design factor, have a probability of being exceeded by more than 10%.

The correlation of quantities such as "inertia stresses, damping forces, elastic forces, dynamic characteristics of the structure, soil-structure interaction, imposed ground motion" is non-linear and by interacting with each other they change the behaviour and stress of the building.

I am engaged in applied research of seismic structures trying to eliminate and control all these unstable chaos factors lying on the ground and better construction by applying prestressing at the ends of the wall sections in order to reduce the deformation of their frame and increase the strength of their reinforced concrete without admixtures and mass increase which incidentally increases the inertia loads, and on the other hand I am embedding the structure with the ground for the first time in the world in order to rotate the inertia loads into the ground allowing the ground to participate in the response of the structure to the seismic displacements, excessively controlling the chaos of all these unstable factors, while increasing the quality of the foundation soil.

In addition to the above mentioned too, there are three other factors that I exploit to increase the earthquake carrying capacity of structures.

1) I built additional seismic damping mechanisms throughout the height of the building.

2) Decoupling of the elastic columns and beams and plates, from the rigid longitudinal prestressed and butted walls with the ground, allows them to collide with each other at the height of the diaphragms and in this way to cancel out the displacements of the load-bearing structure and the deformations.

3) I exploited the double lever arm of height and width of the longitudinal walls, so that the lever arm of width cancels out the torque tensions that the lever arm of height lowers at the base.

ZCZC

WEPA40 PHEB 010721

TSUPAC

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1

NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HONOLULU HI

0721 UTC MON JAN 1 2024

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS - FROM JMA

--------------------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.4

* ORIGIN TIME 0710 UTC JAN 1 2024

* COORDINATES 37.5 NORTH 137.2 EAST

* DEPTH 0 KM / 0 MILES

* LOCATION NEAR THE WEST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN

EVALUATION

----------

TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST

-----------------------

* HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN 300 KM OF THE EPICENTER ALONG THE COASTS OF

JAPAN.

I looked at the tsunami wave early detection system data. Attached the graphs. If anyone has seen a tsunami on the graphs, please leave a comment.

The tsunami theory also does not provide grounds for warning if the depth in the sea, in the area of the epicenter, is less than 3 km.

Experts announced that the earthquake did not generate a tsunami. Then what do we see in photographs from the INTERNET?

Devastating earthquakes of huge magnitude comes with it Public health challenges.

Hi everyone,

Which soil model is appropriate for earthquake analysis of pile foundation in Plaxis 3D? I am going to compare the deformation of piles and soils from different earthquakes , can anyone suggest?

I thought that UCB3D-PLM might be useful for my analysis, unfortunately, I am not considering liquefaction . Is this model is useful also for drained condition in cohesion less soil?

Thank you

I need 3-component waveform for earthquake happened on January 28, 2023 in Khoy, Iran. I need some extra data for additional analysis but in AFAD website it doesn't accept my request as it shows an error message after entering the email address.

Who knows what happened with the earthquakes in question?

Today there was an earthquake in western China. It was present on the list of Volcano Discovery sites (attached file). It disappeared afterwards. I have an earthquake forecast at the next discussion:

Could it be because of this?

The purpose of earthquake engineering is not to build strong and earthquake-resistant buildings that do not experience the slightest damage in rare and severe earthquakes. The cost of such structures for the vast majority of users will have no economic justification.

Instead, engineers focus on buildings that resist earthquakes' effects and do not collapse, even in severe external excitations. It is the most important goal of international standards in the seismic design of buildings.

Below I have mentioned some crucial points in reducing the seismic demand in reinforced concrete structures. If there is anything else that is not on the list, feel free to append:

1- Selecting suitable construction conditions with the desired soil type of seismic design

2. Avoid using unnecessary masses in the building

3- Using simple structural elements with minimal torsional effects

4. Avoid sudden changes in strength and stiffness in building height

5. Prevent the formation of soft-story

6. Provide sufficient lateral restraint to control drift through shear walls

7- Preventing disturbance in the lateral behavior of the structure by non-structural components

I want to calculate maximum shear strain in a soil profile (10 layers), based on a half-space. I calculated deformation by the formula below, but I found a different shear straint by Deepsoil, Strata and shake. Although the amplification functions are the same, Figure (1)?

gama(i)(%)=100*(disp(i)-disp(i+1))/h(i)

disp(i): displacement in the top of layer (i)

disp(i+1): displacement in the top of layer (i+1) or displacement in the base of layer (i) 

h(i) : thickness of layer (i)

What is the concept of repeated earthquakes? How does the dynamic analysis is performed under repeated earthquake? Is this done in a different way that IDA analysis? How the ground motion data taken here are different from IDA analysis? If possible kindly send any tutorial/video using SAP2000.

Thanks and Regard in advance!

Dear Professor Peng Chaoyong,

I ask you to inform: how many people died in this earthquake?

Do you know what are the cheapest houses made entirely of reinforced concrete on which my patent has a performance? The prefabricated ones.

The acceleration of the earth on which the structure rests imposes a displacement in one direction on the building which reacts with another force in the opposite direction which we call inertia.

These two forces with different heights impose a overturning moment on the structure.

This overturning moment acts as follows.

If we have a rigid and elevated dynamic building made entirely of reinforced concrete, then the building will overturn entirely in a large earthquake. That is, its entire base will become a wall and the wall will become a base.

If the building has beams and columns then neither the columns are simply bent over, nor do the beams have the strength to rotate the building around itself, nor will the base of the building leave the ground. The reason is that neither the beams nor the columns have such strong cross-sections that they are able to rotate the structure and overturn it.

If we have walls and beams then the weaker cross sections of the beams will break, and the structure will be left on the ground without rotating and overturning.

The ceiling, however, will come down on our heads.

Here we see three different structures reacting differently. But not all of them react the way we want them to.

We don't want the columns to break, we don't want the beams to break, and we don't want it to tip over.

If we take the dynamic version of the structure that is made entirely of reinforced concrete that only topples but does not break, and embed it in the ground with strong anchors, then I ask any would-be denier of my method what damage can be done?

The structure will suffer no damage.

Do you know any more are the cheapest houses made entirely of reinforced concrete on which my patent has performed? The prefabricated ones. .... It doesn't pay off...the system and cheap and seismically sound.

The all reinforced concrete building has two main levers.

That of height and that of width.

That of height contrasts with that of width.

The one of height multiplies the moments that descend to the base and overturn the structure, and the one of width resists this overturning. So the force of inertia along with the height multiplies the overturning moments, while the building's footing on the other end of the width lever arm along with the distance from the pivot point stops the building from overturning.

The farther the anchorage is from the pivot point of the rigid building, the lower the overturning force it receives.

Hello,

I am doing nonlinear time history analysis by ETABS. I will be grateful if anyone shares the 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake data.

What new I brought to the construction that can't be questioned by anyone

The earthquake imposes a force on the structure and the structure resists that force with the cross-sections of the load-bearing elements.

The cross sections of the beam plates and wall and column sections have some strength and then they break. If we increase the cross sections and reinforcement to increase the strength of the structure without the earthquake being stronger, the seismic loads also increase because they are tied to the mass of the structure. Greater mass = greater loads with the same acceleration.

Conclusion. The structure is saturated with reinforcement and concrete and that's the limit of its strength. No more.

This strength that the structure currently has only responds to small earthquakes and medium earthquakes with some post-earthquake damage repairs. No structure in the world can withstand very large earthquakes.

And I come to the civil engineers and say.

If you increase reinforcement and concrete to increase strength it is futile because it increases along with strength and seismic loads.

You have to increase the strength without increasing the mass.

And I give them two solutions not one to increase strength without increasing mass.

First solution. We take force from the ground, that is an external force, which has no mass because it comes from the ground and we use it to help the cross sections additively 1+1=2 to cope with the earthquake.

Second solution. In the earthquake 30% of the cross section of the concrete wall is active. The other 70% is inert, offers nothing and only does nothing but increase as a mass the earthquake forces. If we apply prestressing the whole concrete cross section becomes active and contributes to the earthquake without increasing inertia.

Center for a global earthquake forecast network in the countries of the Vrancea zone?

I appeal to the seismologists of the Vrancea zone. You know that the reliability of my method is about 100%.

Do you want a Global Network Center to be installed in the Vranci area, which will bring contracts and good profits?

Only this method can solve the problem of the Sendai program (UN).

In addition, the method is expanding into related areas, which will also bring good profits.

Write who needs it or no one needs it.

Can someone provide me with the earthquake repositioning code with Python?

Вы хотите получить точный прогноз времени землетрясения?

Do you want to get an accurate earthquake forecast?

Geophysicists have an understanding of the mechanism and causes of earthquakes in the contact zones of tectonic plates. Here, earthquakes occur as a result of the spreading of tectonic plates. Geophysicists have an understanding of the mechanism but not the causes of earthquakes in transform fault zones. Geophysicists have no understanding of either the mechanism or causes of earthquakes with epicenters inside tectonic plates. There is no understanding of the causes of repeated strong shocks. They are simply called foreshocks and aftershocks. about the cause of the aftershock of the Turkish earthquake, there is information in my discussion "The earthquake in Turkey is a consequence of planetary scale geodeformations. Is the concept of stress accumulation before an earthquake wrong?". The theory is in my discussion "Ocean tides and deformations of the Earth's surface of tidal origin have different physics of the process. Why?".

I will give the actual data on earthquakes with a magnitude of more than seven in Turkey on February 6, 2023. Data from open sources on the Internet.

Judging by the Moment tensor map data, both earthquakes had the same Focal_mechanism - Left-lateral strike-slip. The first shock was caused by a shift in direction southwest - northeast. The second shock is caused by a shift in the direction west - east. This was confirmed by the intensity maps of shaking from earthquakes.

With a vertical amplitude of semidiurnal tides in the solid body of the Earth from -13 to +23 cm cm during earthquakes, the indicated amplitudes of horizontal and vertical tidal displacements completely coincided. 12 hours after the aftershock, the amplitude of the vertical tidal displacement decreased only by 5% (it remained high).

Conclusion. While maintaining significant geodeformation energy throughout the whole day of February 6, which was caused by geodeformations on February 3 in changes in the gravitational field, the first earthquake significantly weakened (did not destroy) the tectonic structures of the Eastern Anatolian Fault (azimuth 45 degrees). The aftershock was inevitable. When the tide in the solid body of the Earth repeated itself in phase and amplitude, an aftershock occurred under conditions of powerful geodeformations on a planetary scale. By the second earthquake, the tectonic structures of the Eastern Anatolian Fault were destroyed and transformed into structures with an azimuth of 90 degrees. The third earthquake was already inexpedient, although at 10 pm on February 6 there was quite a lot of energy.

Note. The tides in the solid body of the Earth deform the planet along the parallels and meridians and all existing fault systems (azimuths 17, 35, 45, 62, 77 degrees) transform into a system of block divisibility of the lithosphere 90 degrees.

What broader implications could the adoption of the functional recovery design philosophy have for disaster preparedness and response strategies in urban planning and infrastructure development?

What are some key research directions suggested by the article for advancing the field of functional recovery in earthquake engineering?

I am an M.Tech structural engineering student working on the project ' Numerical analysis of Kath-kuni architecture ( a common masonry typology ) in Himachal Pradesh region of India subjected to earthquake loading in ABAQUS software' . The question of concern is that I am finding it difficult to input plasticity parameters for timber/ wood material that I have used in my model even after searching in various research papers. I have got only elasticity parameters and wood being an orthotropic material requires plasticity parameters and a plasticity damage model to be defined in order to understand the actual material behavior in ABAQUS software. So, kindly help me in finding the plastic properties and a damage model for timber, it would be very helpful to proceed in my current project.

Thanks and regards

I will participate in a conference on the effects of earthquakes and my study on the economic effects of the earthquake on the Syrian economy. I hope that you will share with me information about the economic effects of the earthquake on the economic sectors.

I need help modelling horizontal BNWF with axial, transverse, and vertical (bearing & uplift) springs and spring damper at the ends to simulate connectivity.

I want to know how I can model these on to the beam and assuming the pipeline segment is 1 kilometer in length, at what intervals should the soil springs be applied? Can we assign line springs in OpenSees?

Thank you

P.S I would like to validate my results through this paper "Seismic risk assessment of buried steel gas pipelines under seismic wave propagation based on fragility analysis - Vahid Jahangiri, Hamzeh Shakib" - DOI 10.1007/s10518-017-0260-1

One of the scientists states: “It is not easy to predict an earthquake, and so far there has not been a single successful prediction in history, except for one Chinese researcher in the mid-70s.

Those who can read Russian or English, I suggest that you read these documents carefully.

After that:

I ask the scientists of the world to inform: who else claims that the Genesis of earthquakes has not been discovered, that the short-term earthquake forecast has not been created and has not been tested?

Greetings from the world geophysics and seismology community I am searching to find a practical, and important topic for my Ph.D. thesis. Professors and those who view this post, if they are interested in doing joint international projects between the two countries, please share your topics and suggestions with me. I will write my favorite topics for you and if possible, I would