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Disaster Risk Reduction - Science topic

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I am currently looking up the different guidelines and policies existing for vulnerable population and evacuation centre (shelters) and experiences. We assume that plan, setup and managing evacuation centres (shelters) for disaster affected people are regulated by Disaster Risk Reduction related regulations in each country, but usually this is for general population. I am just wondering if there is another set of policy or guideline existing focusing on vulnerable population as I am familiar with the Japanese case that they have guidelines for this population since 2008. If you know any information on this, could you please share with myself? Thank you,
Mayumi
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In the United States, there are policies and guidelines in place to address the needs of vulnerable populations during emergencies, including evacuation center protocols.
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Dear Esteemed Professor/Researcher,
We extend a cordial invitation for the submission of your distinguished scientific research articles to be considered for publication in the upcoming edition of the International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, Vol. 6, No. 1.
The International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, a rigorously peer-reviewed publication released semi-annually, encompasses a comprehensive spectrum of disaster studies, policy considerations, and effective management strategies. Our journal serves as a prominent platform, fostering collaboration among academics, policymakers, and practitioners, facilitating the dissemination of high-quality research and practices related to natural disasters, anthropogenic crises, and complex political emergencies worldwide.
Aims and Scope
The journal will cover all aspects of disaster risk management from a global perspective, including but not limited to:
  • Disaster and crisis management theory and practice,
  • Risk awareness and assessment,
  • Hazard and vulnerability analysis,
  • Knowledge development including education, training, research, and information on disasters,
  • Public commitment and institutional frameworks, including organizational, policy, legislation, and community action,
  • Disaster prevention, mitigation, response, recovery planning, policies,  and implementation,
  • Promotes the interchange of ideas between practitioners, policy-makers, and academics.
Spanning interdisciplinary boundaries, our journal aims to promote communication, collaboration, and teamwork between various professions and disciplines. This collective effort strives to prevent or limit the adverse impacts of hazards (prevention, mitigation, and preparedness) within the broader context of sustainable development. By encouraging the exchange of ideas and experiences, we aim to reduce the risk of disasters and fortify community resilience in alignment with sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries.
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Authors are kindly requested to submit their fully formatted papers for consideration. All submissions will undergo a meticulous blind peer-review process, evaluating originality, research content, correctness, relevance to the conference, and readability. To ensure a seamless submission process, we kindly urge you to thoroughly review the submission and formatting guidelines before submitting your paper.
We appreciate your valuable contributions to advancing disaster risk management knowledge, and we eagerly anticipate the opportunity to feature your work in our esteemed journal.
Kind Regards,
Prof. dr Vladimir M. Cvetković
Chief-in-Editor
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Dear Roman,
Thank you for your inquiry. We appreciate your interest in our publication International Journal of Disaster Risk Management. The next issue is scheduled to be published in June. We are working diligently to bring you high-quality content, and we're excited to share it with our readers.
Stay tuned for updates, and we hope you enjoy the upcoming issue!
Best regards
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It strikes me that the vast majority of research in the subject of air pollution is concerned with ambient air pollution conditions. Episodic air pollution has less coverage. There are clear reasons for this e.g., monitoring is limited because you would need to know where the fire (for example as the source) is going to be and be capable of then monitoring it.
My research has been focussed on a unique dataset which arises from monitoring during these events in Britain. This has shown that uncontrolled open fires at waste management sites dominate as the cause of episodic air pollution incidents. But of course, we see increasing (?) reports of forest fires occurring world-wide. The same concerns arise here.
I welcome thoughts on the research avenues.
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Dear Jorge,
Thank you for your comments. I agree that we should continue to research air pollution. My focus is on human health but there are also implications for more than just health. Thinking more broadly, the concept of sustainable cities comes to mind as well as essentials for human existence and potential interaction with air pollution such as its impact on Maslow’s Hierarchy (some question this, I however, believe it to be still relevant).
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#sustainble approach for disaster reduction
#resilinece
role of social media for disaster mitigation
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DISASTER MITIGATIR AS WELL AS DURING DISASTER PANIC SITUATION CREATOR.
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How can we reduce disaster risk through formal education to get 11th goal of SDG ;Sustainable development of cities and communities ;please made some suggestion which are applicable for any country easily?
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1. Educate citizens on the importance of disaster risk reduction and how to prevent or reduce the impacts of disasters.
2. Develop and implement policies and regulations that encourage the use of hazard-resistant building materials, such as resilient structures and flood-resistant infrastructure.
3. Strengthen and enforce building codes, land-use planning, and other regulations that reduce risk and provide safe access to buildings and other infrastructure.
4. Increase public awareness and education on the potential risks posed by climate change and other disasters.
5. Establish and promote the use of early warning systems, such as tsunami warning systems, and risk management plans.
6. Develop and encourage the use of green infrastructures, such as green roofs, permeable pavement, and rainwater harvesting systems, to reduce flood risks.
7. Increase access to disaster risk reduction information and resources, and ensure that they are readily available to the public.
8. Increase access to affordable insurance and other financial tools to help households and communities prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters.
9. Engage key stakeholders in the planning and implementation of disaster risk reduction activities.
10. Encourage public-private partnerships and the use of a community-participatory approach etc.,
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Dear Participant
We would like to invite you to participate in the survey which is being implemented by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in the frame of the European Commission Project with the title Science and Human Factor for Resilient Society.
The aim of the project is to identify factors that affect the usage of social media, including such channels as Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter in relation to disaster risk reduction situations. The survey is conducted among inhabitants of Sweden, Ireland, Luxembourg, Italy, Germany, Croatia, and Lithuania.
Thank you very much for your time and support.
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Sorry, I did not see this earlier. But if you are looking for a collaborator, let me know.
Cheers,
Reza
New Brunswick, Canada
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How can all these can be integrated in a best way? I would love to hear and read case studies, especially from least developed countries.
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In the last two decades, it has been increasingly recognized that having subnational disaster risk reduction strategies or plans that complement the national policy framework is a requirement for a functioning risk governance system.
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Answers to the question will greatly contribute to the acquisition of hardware and software for academic and research purposes.
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As already suggested I would use R that does not only offer several mapping options but a large suite of statistical packages. Keep in mind that if coding and programming is not exactly your thing and you need something more user-friendly, you could use the free Quantum GIS software which can be interfaced to a series of other applications, including R scripts, GRASS and many more to run propertary algorithms throug a GUI user-friendly interface
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How does Community Define disaster risk?
How does community disaster risk reduction?
How to build a bridge between community and science in disaster risk reduction?
How government and scientists would be benefited through learning and practicing community perspectives on disaster risk reduction?
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Thanks, Maren Aase. I will read it shortly.
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Media plays a very important role in every stage of disaster management. How can media involve itself or what is the the role that media can play to reduce the disaster risk.
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Not of escalating, but of informing.
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13 October is the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction with a commentary at https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/disaster-choice/202010/international-day-disaster-risk-reduction and some papers on disaster risk governance at:
What aspects of disaster (risk) governance are especially understudied?
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International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction is observed on October 13, every year. The day celebrates how people and communities around the world are reducing their exposure to disasters and raising awareness about the importance of reining in the risks that they face.
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Does Disaster Risk Reduction Education is the systematic process of reducing disaster risk and take necessary action to minimize the disaster affects
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Education and training is an integral part of capacity building in the disaster management discipline as trained personnel respond much better to different disasters and will take proactive measures of mitigation and prevention
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Dear All Researchers and Engineers,
We are organizing an International Symposium on Construction Resources for Environmentally Sustainable Technologies (CREST) during 10-12 March, 2020. On behalf of the chairman Prof. Hemanta Hazarika, we would like to invite all those interested in participating in the event. Please send your abstracts and papers, which will be published by Springer.
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Hi dear Divyesh.
Today, the growing need of society for buildings and housing, the need to use new building systems and materials to increase the speed of construction, lightening, increase useful life and earthquake resistance of buildings has become more and more. In this regard, upgrading the scientific and professional level of the engineering community and familiarity with new systems and building materials in order to apply these systems, is inevitable. Solving problems such as long construction time, low useful life or high cost of construction of buildings in the housing sector requires the provision of solutions for practical use of new building systems and new building materials to reduce weight, reduce construction time, more durability and ultimately reduce costs. Is run. These measures are considered essential for sustainable development. Also, in the long run, these efforts will reduce the waste of construction materials and consequently meet environmental needs, optimize construction, increase housing production and achieve optimal operating conditions. On the other hand, such developments will lead to the expansion of infrastructure investments in the housing sector, especially by the private sector, which will help governments achieve their housing goals.
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How is it different from Disaster Risk Reduction, Adaptation, and Mitigation strategies?
Which procedures apply to this approach?
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Climate Risk Management is a term is used for a large and growing body of work, bridging the climate change adaptation, disaster management and development sectors, amongst many others. The approach seeks to promote sustainable development by reducing the vulnerability associated with climate risk. CRM involves strategies aimed at maximizing positive and minimizing negative outcomes for communities in fields such as agriculture, food security, water resources, and health. Risk management is the process of identifying risk, assessing risk, and taking steps to reduce risk to an acceptable level . The risk management approach determines the processes, techniques, tools, and team roles and responsibilities for a specific project. For more details of the procedure please have a look of the attached file.
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The selection of indicators in quantitative territorial studies on social vulnerability and disaster risk reduction is a crucial issue. What or how do we reflect the research methodology in order to ensure that the selection of indicators of social vulnerability and DRR can contextualize the study area?
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I am currently developing a professional development on teaching and integrating disaster risk reduction. I would like to gather empirically tested activities that can influence value orientations, beliefs, and norms on teaching disaster risk reduction. I am hypothesizing that teaching disaster risk reduction is one of the pro-environmental behaviors. I would be very happy and grateful if you can recommend to me readings and literature along this line. Thanks and best regards.
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You can use the socio ecological model (SEM). Haque, Dodman and Hossain (2014) was worked on ‘Individual, communal and institutional responses to climate change by low-income households in Khulna, Bangladesh’. In this study, they selected the socio ecological model (SEM) at climate change studies towards pro-environmental behavior of the low-income household levels and their social system in Khulna city, Bangladesh. It was interactions between individuals and environment within their changing/influencing value orientations, beliefs, and norms. In this study all levels of SEM is utilized. They are given below:
(i.) Individual level: Knowledge, attitudes and behaviors of 550 households for meaningful risk reduction towards pro-environmental behavior.
(ii.) Interpersonal level: Communication with family, friends, social networks for practicing coping strategies with value orientations, beliefs, and norms.
(iii.) Community level: Relationships between organizations for awareness building for adaptation (community based).
(iv.) Organizational level: Developing training or funding opportunity for institutional actions by organizations (e.g., Khulna City Corporation, Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, Bangladesh) and social institutions/NGOs/UN bodies/INGOs etc.
and
(v.) Policy level: Building resilience at national, state, local government level and implementation of laws.
Thank you.
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I am currently working on my dissertation along disaster risk reduction and resilience in selected Philippine islands. 
Part of my objectives is to find out and map out the existing frameworks of disaster risk reduction and resilience education as implemented in schools. 
1. What kind of framework/s is/are followed by organisations/institutions in implementing disaster risk reduction and resilience education among schools?
2. How are programs along disaster risk reduction and resilience education being developed, implemented and assessed?
3. Who are the people involved in disaster risk reduction and resilience education and what are their respective roles?
4. At present, what are the specific roles of schools (high schools and universities) in disaster risk reduction and resilience education?
5. Who should be involved in a successful disaster risk reduction and resilience education? What should be their respective roles?
6. What is the ideal role of schools in disaster risk reduction and resilience education?
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Dear sir,
Greetings of the day.
The 4Rs theory is one of the existing frameworks of disaster risk and resilience education using for emergency management or disaster management. The term 4Rs is very popular in New Zealand and known as the four phases of emergency management cycle. The meaning of 4Rs are given below:
Readiness = Preparedness
Response
Recovery
Reduction = Mitigation
The concept of 4Rs also involves emergency plans, structures, and arrangements that established to engage the normal endeavors of government, voluntary agencies, NGOs and INGOs in a comprehensive and coordinated way to respond to the whole spectrum of global emergency needs. This is also known as disaster management (DM). In the concept of 4Rs, resilience describes as the aim of the four phases of emergency management as an ability to recover people and their resources from or adjust easily to disastrous misfortunes or catastrophic changes. Now, it is as one of the accepted existing frameworks of disaster risk and resilience education to open/start disaster management (DM) education at university and school level that is exercising in DM education & for research as well by the disaster risk and resilience education managers and practitioners.
With best compliments.
Thankfully yours,
Md Shamsuzzoha
From 🇧🇩
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A lot of attention (research) is nowadays paid to the child-oriented DRR approaches, but adults will need to act now and the level of their preparedness is rather low. How we can enhance it? How we can educate them and motivate them to learn about DRR? ... in Europe conditions.
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We have been using serious games to engage stakeholders and experts in discussions on disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptations and found it a very useful approach. The gaming approach allows people to have discussions in a fun environment and it is easier for the participants to get out of their usual roles and to thereby get them to see other perspectives.
In the ESPREssO project (https://www.researchgate.net/project/Enhancing-Synergies-for-disaster-Prevention-in-the-EurOpean-Union-ESPREssO ), we have developed and utilised three serious games (RAMSETE 1-3).
You can have a look at our website here: https://translate.google.de/translate?hl=&sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dkkv.org%2Fde%2Fserious-gaming - sorry, for the translate link; we are in the process of updating the backend of our site and the English button is no functioning yet.
If you want to get your hands on the developer set of RAMSETE 3, shoot me a message.
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Hi,
Looking at the current situation of flooding around the world, what we should focus on in our researches in flood risk management? How can we mitigate the risk of flooding? What could be the research topics to work on for better flood risk mitigation/management and disaster risk reduction?
Thank you.
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The causes of flooding, relative environmental impacts, root causes and corrective measures are likely to vary among nations. However, it is important to identify the unique characteristics of the area of subject as they relate to flooding. With this, potent flood risk management actions could be taken.
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In developing countries like Bangladesh, there is a popular trend of mainstreaming CCA in infrastructure. There are several cases in Bangladesh where the implementing agency while redesigning coastal embankment initially considered additional DRR by increasing height of the polder. Considering SLR impact they further increased the height in the design. But unfortunately due fund limitation, they had to reduce the height. While revising the design height, they stripped out the additional height adopted for additional DRR but kept the height considered for CCA to SLR. So my question is, can we still consider this embankment as an infrastructure inclusive of CCA? if so, aren't we sacrificing DRR to comply with fund arrangers' condition of CCA?
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José Henrique Pastorelli Junior Thank you . I will read the discussion
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With a help of a questionnaire I want to see how the knowledge of teachers measures up regarding the climate related- disaster risk reduction education
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The cycle approach is no longer accepted in this field. Some examples:
1. James Lewis' 1999 book https://www.developmentbookshelf.com/doi/book/10.3362/9781780442013 on pp. 129-130 critiques the cycle model and proposes instead a 'disaster bicycle'.
3. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction in 2016-2017 started slowly removing the cycle from their documents.
4. Page 2 of http://www.routledge.com/books/details/9780415679930 provides several other sources covering concerns with the cycle approach.
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I am working on modelling the social dynamics and human responses during flash floods and forecasting the socio-economic impacts of flash floods.
Could you please share any relevant scientific papers/reports or any other related resources?
Thank you.
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you can also help me with the examples of topics related to disaster risk reduction or disaster management.
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Facility location problems, where a set of items have to be assigned to a number of facilities, represent a well known class of problems in operations research. A special case is the Single Source Capacitated Facility Location Problem (SSCFLP), where the demand of any single client has to be allocated to a single facility and each facility has a limited capacity. Several efforts have been devoted to solving SSCFLP, based either on Lagrangean relaxation or on an exact approach, e.g. branch-and-bound in and branch-and-cut in.
Papers:
M. Naldi, G. Nicosia, A. Pacifici, and U. Pferschy. Profit-fairness trade-off in project selection. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2018.10.007, 2018.
Chawis Boonmee, Mikiharu Arimura, and Takumi Asada. Facility location optimization model for emergency humanitarian logistics. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 24:485 – 498, 2017.
Sae yeon Roh, Hyun mi Jang, and Chul hwan Han. Warehouse location decision factors in humanitarian relief logistics. The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, 29(1):103 – 120, 2013.
A. Agnetis, E. Grande, and A. Pacifici. Demand allocation with latency cost functions. Mathematical Programming, 132(1-2):277– 294, 2012.
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Dear Eduard,
There is a very nice book that presents a broad view of what is going on in Facility Location:
G. Laporte, S. Nickel and F. Saldanha da Gama (eds), Location Science, Springer, New York, USA, 2015, 644p.
A new edition of this book should be soon available.
Hope it helps!
Cheers,
Vlad
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I am wondering if anyone happens to know of a case study that demonstrates a failed community resilience project, that specifically failed through a lack of regard for local knowledge or culture. Thus demonstrating the significance of local knowledge and culture to be incorporated in to resilience building projects.
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At the conference highlighted below many examples of community resilience in the Pacific Islands region and beyond are discussed
Annual Conference of the IGU Commission on Local and Regional Development, June 25 - 28, 2019 in Suva, Fiji
Development Challenges in Rural and Urban Areas
Bringing together rural, urban and regional development challenges is an interesting, but difficult task. It becomes even more challenging in a part of the world where countries and even parts of them are separated by a huge body of water: the Pacific Ocean.
With the notion of climate change potential risks to human well-being and the virtual survival of whole island states have added challenges that in the meanwhile are discussed globally.
These challenges call for investigations on how human activities and global environmental changes affect human well-being, economic, social and cultural systems in island societies and beyond.
In this context, the rationale of the conference is to bring together scientists and stakeholders from various connecting fields to address multiple impacts of various challenges to societies and to contributing to discussing and drafting practical solutions in form of mitigation and adaptation strategies in local and regional planning and development policies anywhere on the globe.
The conference will be held from June 25 – 28, 2019
The following topics have been suggested so far.
  • Uneven development - Spatial and socio-economic inequalities
  • Competitiveness and cohesion in urban and rural areas
  • Local and regional vulnerabilities to climate change under the current socio-economic context - resilient cities and rural communities
  • Role of multi-actor and multi-level governance in sustainable planning and development
  • Survival strategies of peripheral communities
  • Local and regional economic and social entrepreneurship
  • Rural-urban changing relationships
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For decades, scholars and think tanks have debated the effectiveness of aid in reducing poverty. In this debate, we will build on previous arguments about the effectiveness and value of aid, but focus on its role in disaster risk reduction and post-disaster reconstruction and recovery.
Scholars, think-tanks, celebrities, and politicians have claimed aid is crucial to prevent famines, diseases, and deaths. They argue that donors’ money can be used to solve basic problems in areas like sanitation, vaccination, education, housing, and infrastructure. Aid can also be used to fund monitoring activities and learn from interventions. More importantly, they contend that traditional markets alone cannot resolve housing and infrastructure deficits. They note that the poor are often stuck in feedback loops that economists call “poverty traps.” In other words, millions are poor precisely because they live in poverty. Slum dwellers, for instance, find it difficult to escape poverty because they pay proportionally more for services and infrastructure than wealthier citizens. Foreign aid is needed to break these vicious cycles and replace them with virtuous ones that make vulnerable people more resilient. For defenders, the real problem is lack of funds, not present mechanisms of aid. From their view, people use criticisms of aid merely as excuses to justify not donating money.
On the other hand, critics often find too much money is “wasted” on aid. For them,  initiatives seldom produce positive long-term change and—in many cases—even create more damaging than desirable results. They contend that donors’ money is spent on band-aid solutions that rarely have long-term impacts. They argue that aid is largely controlled by political agendas, feeds on forms of neo-colonialism, focuses too much on technology transfer, creates dependency, and bypasses legitimate governments and authorities. They contend that aid is often based on centralized schemes produced by over-confident and idealistic decision-makers with little knowledge of what is needed “on the ground.” For them, aid is often driven by ideology, and lacks the performance incentives and accountability mechanisms found in competitive (and typically “more efficient”) markets.
For this debate, we have invited two internationally recognized experts in humanitarian assistance and interventions to defend each viewpoint.
Our panellists will present their most persuasive arguments over the next ten days, but the outcome of the debate rests in your hands. Don’t hesitate to vote immediately—you can always change your mind. Better yet, once you have cast your vote, add your voice to the debate and explain your decision.
Vote and participate here: https://oddebates.com/
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Hi Ted. Can I post your answer in the blog?
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please provide me the idea about the research topics on disaster risk reduction and its impl
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A good guide of topics relating disasters and health can be found here:
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Dear RG colleagues
Do you like to share pictures on NATURAL DISASTER 2018 with intention for public awareness regarding disaster risk reduction (DRR)?
With best regards
Ijaz
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We prefer to avoid the term "natural disaster" since disasters are caused by vulnerabilities not nature, so some pictures of hazards:
Photos in terms of dealing with disasters:
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Dear researchers
Lesson learned from Indonesia tsunami?
Thanks for comments with a step towards Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) through awareness.
Regards
Ijaz
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I wonder what happened to the population of critically endangered Javan rhino in Ujung Kulon NP, which was affected by the tsunami. I am not able to find any information or reports on the affect of the tsunami on this national park and the last 60-70 wild specimens of this iconic species.
Anak Krakatau eruption was considered a threat for the whole population by several specialists, but nothing was done in order to mitigate this risk.
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Dear,
I just doing research about LoRa sensor technologies, setting up, will be built Early Warning System for Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction. Your project is quite the same and similar. Would you share me the detailed-system block diagram about IoT infrastructure for Metropolitan EWS?
Thanks
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LoRa is a spread spectrum modulation technique derived from chirp spread spectrum (CSS) technology.It is based on wireless radio frequency technology (LoRa Technology) is a long range, low power wireless platform that has become the de facto standard for Internet of Things (IoT) networks worldwide. LoRa Technology enables smart IoT applications that solve some of the biggest challenges facing our planet: energy management, natural resource reduction, pollution control, infrastructure efficiency, disaster prevention, and more.
This article and link might help you...
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The concept of Build Back Better has been frequently used in recovery and reconstruction policies document now as it was emphasized in the recent world conference on disaster risk reduction.  From international viewpoint, what was the first document or turning point to use this concept ?
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Thank you very much for all these answers, but in my point of view this slogan as used in SFDRR is far beyond build back buildings better, it concern also capacity building in order to be able to build society better and thus recovering and reconstructing better. We know many experiences in the world in which because of the funds were flowing during this phase several entreprises were eager to to do the job but they did not have adequate skilled people. Capacity building of human cvapital is badly needed to include it the slogan. In general I would suggest that a second reading of SFDRR is needed to take into account these remarks after three years of SFDRR implementation.
Thanks to all.
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Riversare a lifeline of millions in every part of world wether it is India, Bangladesh or Netherland. The flood delivers rich and vital nutrients to the river valley between the foothills and plain areas. Almost every country had adopted River embankments as a flood management strategy. in India these embankments have afforded some form of flood protection to the rural and urban dwellers and villages have mushroomed around the embankments, such as this village school. But they are also susceptible to breaches. so the questions and concerns is: what impacts do embankments have on river dynamics? Do embankments reduce perceived flood risk?
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This paper may give some other ideas to address these questions:
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Hello smart people!
I'm looking for any research that has been conducted over the past 5 to 10 years that looks at the success (or otherwise) of using behavioural economics (and behavioural insights) principles to improve community risk reduction behaviours for natural disasters, eg wildfire/bushfires. All suggestions gratefully received!
Thank you!
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Many thanks Norman. I will look into her work. Kind regards, Jodi.
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I want to write a paper and will start soon by next two days. Anyone who wants to contribute can inbox me. I will be glad to have a partner from here.
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I have interviewed 10 different disaster prone or vulnerable cities youth. I am incorporating both youth engagement and bottom up approach for disaster risk reduction & management.
Please suggest me a suitable name for the research paper.
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Hi! Well i have considered the youths between 18-30 age
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Hi,
I am working on a project and I would like to have some recommendations on the following issues:
- How can the smart devices and applications be used for disaster response?
- How these technologies can be used for indoor and outdoor navigation for mass crowd evacuation and rescue?
- How can navigation methods or system that utilize geographic information or building information modeling (BIM) help for mass crowd evacuation and rescue?
- What are the dependability and safety issues of disaster response systems?
Any recommendation (your views, research papers, books etc.) would be highly appreciated.
Thank you very much.
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Dear Javed,
Exploring the new opportunities that posts Big Data for better understand DRR is fundamental and somehow unavoidable. This report may help to illustrate the opportunities, challenges and required steps for leveraging the new ecosystem of Big Data to monitor and detect hazards, mitigate their effects, and assist in relief efforts: https://www.preventionweb.net/publications/view/46539
Best
Vicente
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By DRR we mean, "Efforts that aim towards reducing the damage caused by natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones, through an ethic of prevention"
By Mainstreaming we mean "looking critically at each programme, activity and project that is being planned, not only from the perspective of reducing the existing risks of disasters but also from the perspective of minimizing its potential contribution to the creation of new risks of disasters"
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Dear Narasimah,
In my opinion, John Twigg made a great revision of DRR mainstream views, a document from 2015, here: https://goodpracticereview.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GPR-9-web-string-1.pdf
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I am trying to find the DRR national plan of Ecuador since some time.
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Disaster Risk Reduction has become a central agenda in many parts of the world. This is due to increases in intensity and frequency of extreme events like cyclone/typhoon, heavy rainfall, earthquake, tsunami etc. Ecosystems are the close entities of causes to consequences of these events. However, a system approach that relates ecology and ecosystem services of a particular region are not significantly addressed. Do you think so, and why? How to address these?
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There is a background paper for the Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2009 that focuses on these interlinks, and that could be interesting for your question: http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/background-papers/documents/Chap4/Ecosystems-and-DRR-Working-Draft.doc
Best
Vicente
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I am looking into people's knowledge to deal with natural hazards in the Pacific Island region. I have come across some materials, but I assume that there is much out there, possibly buried in ethnographies, where the titles give little indiction that it contains such materials......... One particular interest is about cultural knowldege about hazards and its application in the material culture (e.g. house construction, agriculture, food preservation and food security, etc....
I thank you very much for your tips
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Several of the papers at http://www.islandvulnerability.org/docs/islandsclimatechange.pdf would be relevant, especially on the last page of this document.
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What may be the curriculum on disaster risk management in an management (MBA) programme? looking to latest developments in area of DRR and CCA. I am working on proposing a specialization/elective course on disaster management in the business/management schools, and am looking for inputs, examples, ideas. How does it balance between disaster risk reduction/resilience and emergency management, and incorporate public policy, community and sustainable development issues, from business/management point of view. I would be highly grateful for the inputs. 
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Dear Anil, there is this document from FEMA (US) which can help you: https://training.fema.gov/hiedu/docs/emerg%20and%20risk%20mgmt.doc
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In the coming years, communities across the United States will face the catastrophic effects of tornadoes due to a contribution of several factors.  Climate change will alter the coverage, frequency, and intensity of said events.  Tornadoes most frequently occur across the Midwestern and Southeastern United States, and these regions have seen rapid urbanization and an increasing number of large population centers.  These factors combine to put more communities at risk of being impacted by large, damaging tornadoes.  While devastating, these events provide an opportunity for redeveloping in a manner that reduces future risk.
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Dear Tristan, this article could shed some light into the topic: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1758-5899.12038/abstract
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Terminal equipment should be capable of video/voice/data communications, preferably if it can act as GIS terminal too.
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Nowadays, SatCom On-The-Move (SOTM) is coming into operation. Applications for SatCom On-The-Move (SOTM) are intended to provide mobile users with communication services especially at places without any terrestrial communication infrastructure, or at disaster scenarios.
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Nepal is taken a good example of bio-engineering for erosion control and slope stability. Species like Alnus nepalensis (tree), Cymbopogon citratos (herb), Eulaliopsis binata (herb), Thysanolaena maxiama (perennial grass) are few widely used plants. Are there any research on performance of commonly used species including aforementioned ones taking consideration of their efficiency in decreasing pore water pressure and also increasing soil strength of the instable slopes?    
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Interesting discussion...
Vegetation helps stabilize forested slopes by providing root strength and by modifying the saturated soil water regime. Plant roots can anchor through the soil mass into fractures in bedrock, can cross zones of weaknessto more stable soil, and can provide interlocking long fibrous binders within a weak soil mass. In Mediterranean-type climates, having warm, dry summers, forest evapotranspiration can develop a substantial soil moisture deficit which can reduce both piezometric head and slope mass. Pore water pressures change seasonally in response to precipitation and are often the driving mechanism which ultimately leads to slope failure. When trees are cut, the root system begins to decay, and the soil-root fabric progressively weakens. The loss of root strength or increased soil moisture content or both after-tree removal can lower the slope safety factor sufficiently that a moderate storm and associated rise in pore water pressure can result in slope failure. After trees are removed, the frequency of landslides can increase. Source :Robert R. Ziemer,
Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, Forest Service, U.S. Dept. of Agric., 1700 Bayview Dr., Arcata, CA, US A
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The Sendai Framework identifies the academia, civil society, businesses and media as key actors besides the governments in disaster risk reduction (DRR). All these actors need to work in unison for effective DRR; the local government is expected to take a lead and form partnerships with and between different actors. 
In this context, I am looking for cases where these partnerships have been formed, role played by different stakeholders, etc.
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Hi Paresh,
I have recently  published a literature review about CCA&DRR which reports the role of different actors in CCS&DRR integration governance, i linked below. Of course, most of these contents can be generalized to DRR and have been retrieved from specific DRR literature. Therefore, I suggest to give a look to the reference list, you can find really useful sources for your work.
Good luck!
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Dear colleagues,
We know, everywhere and in everything the hazard exists without us, as a potential threat to all environmental and socio-economic components, in particular to humans and their welfare plus the vulnerability, immediately brings the negative consequences, exposure and susceptibility to losses cause the risk probability of hazard occurrence and in the end have the disaster, which makes the realization of a risk.
What is the ratio between hazard and risk when the vulnerability is at very low, low, modrate and high levels?
Thank you very much for opinion in advance!
Regards,
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If the word danger refers to threat, the equation that relates the threat, risk and vulnerability is:
R = T * V
-R = risk index
-T = threat index
-V = vulnerability index
Therefore, if the vulnerability is very low, the risk will be very low (if the vulnerability or threat is 0 the risk will be 0). If the vulnerability or threat is high, the risk is also high. If the vulnerability is low, and the threat is high or vice versa, the risk will be high or low depending on what values have the threat and vulnerability.
The equation of the disaster is: 
Disaster = threat * vulnerability / social preparation
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who are the stakeholders are there for the disaster risk reduction of the tangible cultural heritage?
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Yes I am professor in a Master Degree called "Conservation in Cultural Heritage" at Universidad Complutense Madrid, Spain
One of my subjects is Risk Management and Emergency Plans in Cultural Heritage. Currently I am working as advisor at National Museum Reina Sofia we are doing a research on Assessment and Risk Management in its collection and the Risk Management Plan.
In Spain exists a National Emergency and Risk Management Plan for Cultural Heritage
Best wishes
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Hi,
I am conducting research on “Project Management Success in Post-Disaster Reconstruction (PDR) Projects”. In this study, I would like to assess your perception concerning certain factors pertaining to your involvement in PDR projects. Your sincere cooperation is crucial in determining the success of this study.
All responses provided will be treated with strict confidentiality and will be used for this academic research only. Thank you very much for your cooperation.
Sincerely,
Dzulkarnaen Ismail
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Dear Dzulkarnaen Ismail,
This research can provide vital guidance as to the level of influence each competency and competency cluster is likely to exert in PDR operations and the system dynamics model " ( Elaborately collect the details in macro & Micro Level ) "  links these competencies to barriers and strategies. Although humanitarian organizations have to some extent based human resources activities on competency and skills-based requirements, an organic model such as this has not previously been attempted. In reviewing strategic management theory, best practice in the humanitarian sector is closely related to achieving competitive advantage in the commercial domain. Successfully demonstrating best practice for an INGO will ensure that donor place more faith and cash in their organisation. Positive improvements in any of these indicators are evidence that the competency clusters deployed are having a positive effect. If an agency starts to think of barrier mitigation and performance measurement in terms of competency clusters, it could be that in such a scenario a simple reconfiguration of competency clusters could boost performance in The theoretical framework argues that some of the natural outcomes of INGO best practice will be organisational learning, knowledge sharing and collective capacity building. Besides the benefits observable for communities, organisations stand to gain from their deployment of accurate competency configurations. Not only will the organisation itself grow its internal capacity, but the sector as a whole will benefit from an enhanced facility to integrate proactive measures, rather than simply reactive, and to assign staff to roles with confidence in their competency match to the barriers they will invariably face. Generally, theorists agree that improved performance is the most important intended outcome of strategy within an organisation. More adaptive and innovative organisations will meanwhile be able to utilize their enhanced capacity to respond to disaster scenarios to do more good, more quickly and at less cost .
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The Berlin Natural History Museum is currently developing a disaster preparedness plan for its huge collections. Fire, water, earthquakes and other catastrophes represent an immense threat for our cultural and natural heritage. The history is full of examples of irreplaceable losses due to such catastrophes and a significant lack of preparedness. It would be interesting to see if you have some sort of disaster preparedness in your facility or for the collections in your responsibility.
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There is a network here in Delaware (USA) called the Delaware Disaster Assistance Team (DDAT) which exists to assist museums, libraries, archives and historical societies of all sizes to mitigate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from emergencies and disasters that might impact their collections.  The website is https://sites.google.com/site/ddatdelaware/  and it includes a number of great planning resources.
In addition, the University of Delaware's Disaster Research Center has an extensive library collection of materials on all aspects of disasters including disaster planning in general and disaster planning for collections.  If you are interested in examples of plans and related resources, you can contact the Center at http://drc.udel.edu/elq-resource-collection/
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One of my Ph.Ds just finished his thesis looking at IKS in disaster risk reduction policy in Zimbabwe. Pvt me for a copy of the thesis.
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Kumbh Mela and other religious gatherings are regular features. Human Stampedes have become common. The official documents specify dos and don'ts procedures but leave the nuts and bolts to the organizers. Simple, effective, technology oriented solutions need to be explored to save lives. 
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I've been working for more than three years on natural disaster management, and one of the major gaps I could identify is the lack of comprehensive and powerful software. Sahana Eden is an open source that claims to support disaster management activities. However, the interface is not so friendly and the software itself is essentially oriented for inventory managing. The messaging features are useful but could be highly improved.
In this scope, I've been seeking for a good software without success. It should be a good messenger and should be focused on process management. Does anyone know something that could match my necessities?
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Daniel
There are a lot of different platforms out there which support activity across the spectrum of  PPRR.    Some focus on particular disasters whereas others are more general in nature.     some are open source platforms and a lot are commercial applications.   I guess it depends on the type of organisation you are working for and your particular needs.   You might be interested in exploring the attached links.
Regards
Ged
Incident Maps
UK Environment Agency Life Flood Warning Map http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/142151.aspx
MIT’s Next-Generation Incident Command System https://public.nics.ll.mit.edu/nicshelp/articles/frontpage.php
The Virginia Interoperability Picture for Emergency Response https://cop.vdem.virginia.gov/
Crowd sourced incident maps
Open Street Map Humanitarian Team http://hot.openstreetmap.org/about
Climate CoLab Crowd Sourced Crisis Management Platform http://climatecolab.org:18081/plans/-/plans/contestId/1300402/planId/1307506
Planning
Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction InaSAFE planning and simulation tool http://inasafe.org/en
University of Melbourne/IBM Australian Disaster Management Platform http://admp.org.au/
University of Melbourne Intelligent Disaster Decision Support System http://www.csdila.unimelb.edu.au/projects/IDDSS/About.html
Situational Awareness
Pacific Disaster Centre Global Hazards Map http://atlas.pdc.org/atlas/
Pacific Disaster Centre EMOPS http://emops.pdc.org/emops
Pacific Disaster Centre Disaster Aware http://www.pdc.org/solutions/products/disasteraware/
Global disaster Alert and Coordination System http://www.gdacs.org/default.aspx
IRIS Earthquake Browser http://ds.iris.edu/sm2//
Educational
Emergency Management Australia disaster mapper https://disastermapper.ema.edu.au/#/intro
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After some weeks planning new papers and the directions for upcoming researches, now we are focused on gather new empirical data in order to analyze it.
The topics we are analyzing and what we want to collect data is about Early Warning System and some biosurveillance practices carried out by general people.
In this vein, we want to achieve some documents to deepen how Early Warning Systems works, particularlly we want to know:
What is a "general" Early Warning System
Lay people, or citizenship, has operated as Early Warning System anytime in any outbreak?
In an affirmative case, how did it happen?
Where we can find information about it?
We are very interesting in some "apps" for smartphone as HealthMap or Outbreaks Near Me. How does it works?
Well, this is the kind of questions we have. You can check our blog (http://bit.ly/1Bpygan) in order to inquire some detailed aspects of our research. 
Thank you all!
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Enrique
you might be interested in a few reports that are available for download at the National Academies Press Namely:
Geotargeted Alerts and Warnings: Report of a Workshop on Current Knowledge and Research Gaps.
This PDF is available from The National Academies Press at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=18414
Public Response to Alerts and Warnings Using Social Media: Report of a Workshop on Current Knowledge and Research Gaps.
This PDF is available from The National Academies Press at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=15853.
There are a lot of open systems and visualizations available which can help a person maintain their situational awareness in relation to a number of events for example:
Global disasters and emerging situations see http://www.pdc.org/
Global Weather See http://earth.nullschool.net/ 
There are also a lot of apps available for providing alerts and the Association of Public Safety Officials is playing a leadership role in supporting the development of a diverse, practitioner-driven public safety app ecosystem fostered through the collaborative efforts of public safety professionals and app developers. In April 2013, APCO launched the Application Community at www.AppComm.org. AppComm serves as the single, trusted resource for applications related to public safety and emergency response.
I think it is useful to break this subject down into two broad components, namely a system that supports the early detection or indication of a particular event and secondly a system that is used to provide the community early warning of an event.   You can break this down further if you like but these two categories focus on the decision makers within the official public safety organisations and secondly on the community.   In relation to community warning systems there has been a lot of research conducted here in Australia in relation to how the community understands and reacts to warnings.
Bio-Surveillance  is very important on a day-to-day basis, but becomes critical after a disaster when you have an increase risk of disease as we saw in Haiti, so you might be interested in looking at the rapid deployment of sensor networks post disaster to provide early warning of diseases.
Here at the University of Melbourne at the Centre for Disaster Management and Public Safety (see http://www.cdmps.org.au/)  we are very interested in this topic.   Please let me know if you are interested in any further collaboration.
Regards
Ged
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With all the opportunities that we enjoy from the use of the Internet in terms of connecting people, how can we streamline the open source information to build an effective early warning system to counteract disasters, such as flood, around the world?
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Social media has become ubiquitous in our society and its use is capable of generating significant amounts of data during disasters and mass disruption events. Some social media platforms like Twitter have increasingly become an important tool for people affected by these types of events to share or try to report on what has occurred, is occurring or to seek help or assistance from others. Public safety officials have recognised that this type of information and interaction on social media could potentially enhance their level of situational awareness and support their decision making process. Despite this recognition, public safety officials are still struggling to develop a broadly accepted methodology for capturing critical information from social media and then integrate that information into public safety communications and incident management systems. To date the impact analysis of social media during a disaster has had a limited discussion on how this capability can be integrated into the public safety communications and operational environment.
During a disaster social media use can grow rapidly and has the potential to overwhelm officials in a similar fashion to the sudden surge of calls to public safety answering points. A failure to filter effectively will significantly limit the success and potentially lead to the failure of a social media initiative. For example during the 2012 floods in Queensland the Queensland Police Service Facebook likes grew from 17,000 to 100,000 in the peak 24 hour period and it generated 39 million post impressions which equates to 450 post views per second. One day after the 2011 great earthquake in Japan over half a million new Twitter accounts were created and over 177 million tweets were sent at a rate of 1,200 tweets per minute. Similarly, during the 2011 Christchurch earthquake in New Zealand there were approximately 7,500 tweets per hour.
There is also the challenge of developing approaches that are suitable for local, national and international systems. Similarly there is a high level of variability in the penetration of mobile devices and digital literacy between the developing world and the developed world.
Advances in smartphone technology and novel apps for example weather sensors show a lot of promise for supplementing authoritative data sources and I believe that role of apps has to be part of the conversation when discussing social media.
We are also seeing the rise of digital volunteerism be that in the development of crisis maps and virtual operational support teams. These types of initiatives have a lot of potential to help support, public safety officials during all phases of emergency management; however, there are still a number of organisational cultural boundaries that need to be addressed.
We are doing a lot of research in relation to the use of social media disasters here at the University of Melbourne at the Centre for Disaster Management and Public Safety see. www.cdmps.org.au   Please let me know if you are interested in any collaborative projects on this topic.
You might be interested in having a look at some of the papers that Sarah Vieweg has written or look at the work of Patrick Meier form UN OCHA.
Regards
Ged Griffin
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We all work around Seismic Risk. Structural Behaviour, Retrofit Techniques, Scenario Simulation, Loss Quantification and so on. But. Do people feel at Risk? If not, how can citizens be willing to pay Seismic Risk Reduction policies and practices? Do people know about Feasible Risk Reduction Strategies and actions? If not, how can people be willing to pay Seismic Risk Reduction policies and practices. If someone has any ideas about this, please share.
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The real problem, as previously claimed by Max Wyss, is how to reach the population or better how to engage the society in the risk reduction and the connected actions. Probably the better choice to reach the claimed objective is to orient our action towards the risk acceptance.
The risk perception not includes necessarily a responsability assumption, the acceptance yes.
Even though the perception implies cognitive aspects of the risk, it has more psycological implications than the acceptance, which, differently in my opinion, implies a real taking in charge of a comportamental choice (social in latu sensu).
The risk acceptance is an evaluation of the advantages / disadvantages of some actions (scientific, technical, psycological, social, economical) in order to proceed towards an operative choice finalized to the risk reduction and to the consequent taking of the social-economic risk.
In my opinion the acceptance should include a real engagement of the public which is subject to the risk condition through different level of an information program, oriented to the cognitive and psycological risk perception (risk assessment, risk exposition, modification of the life quality), and mainly finalized to the risk acceptance (responsible decisions and actions in the risk condition)
Probably in this condition, the public could partecipate effectively to a program of risk reduction.
For example a scenario or a simulation, which includes also social and economical effects does not inform the citizen how his life could be modified in terms of his responsabilities and consequent actions. Basically it is useful to furnish important information to the decision/policy makers. But, how much information contained in a scenario or in a simulation are useful for a citizen in order to protect himself and to contribute to the reduction of its real risk? Or best, how the important information contained in them becames useful to enhance the responsibility of a citizen community?
Until the risk reduction programs will be only the result of a top-down process from scientists and/or decision makers and/or legislators to social community, this community will not understand why it is important a politics for risk reduction and why it should take in charge part of the cost (social and economical) connected to its reduction before, during and after an event.
The risk reduction is basically similar to that of a network problem with distributed users over different levels, each level of network contributes to the real risk reduction.
The taking the social-economic risk in distributed form is a factual way to distribute the environmental-risks at each user level through its acceptance of a part of risk (technological-social-economic choices and actions).
A trivial example: when we assure our car we are informed about our part of the assured risk and accept it and the risk taking correspond to a comportamental responsibility and action (the acceptance).
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Are you aware of studies or theoretical work on socio-economic risks (such as the risk of poverty, energy-poverty, unemployment, etc) taking advantage of the terminology of disaster risk analysis and management (i.e. making use of terms such as exposure, vulnerability, resilience etc)?
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Dear Dr Kalliopi Sapountzaki.
One more paper I came across recently is   "Redefining Poverty as Risk and
Vulnerability: shifting strategies of liberal economic governance" by JACQUELINE BEST which appeared in Third World Quarterly, Vol. 34, No.1, 2013, pp 109–129.
I am attaching a copy for your reference.
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Use of renewable and sustainable systems in all stages of disaster management is essential. Please suggest any model of the management procedure to help design renewable systems for disaster management and mitigation.
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Dear Dr. Sarkar,  The use of a district utility core based upon waste stream reclamation and co-generation will enable the creation of a baseload power based renewable energy powered micro-grid.  This core will provide utility services in isolation should natural disaster or transmission and distribution become compromised while being able to utilize the utility grid for back-up and or offtake of excess energy.  The key is to have a core stakeholder or group of stakeholders able to justify the baseline utility loads.  Expanding and extending the baseline system is relatively simple from there.  Additional variable intermittent power resources such as solar and wind can be added to the mix as well to increase the renewable resource percentage without jeopardizing the core availability of baseload power on the microgrid during off grid conditions.
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These are core English terms in disaster risk reduction research and practice. A lot of confusion results from assuming that there are clear equivalents to these English terms: risk, hazard, danger, threat, vulnerability, capacity, resilience, emergency, crisis, disaster, catastrophe.
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Dear Mr.Ben Wisner,
Here is an Chinese  translation of your list
1. Risk 风险
2.Hazard 冒险
3.Danger 危险
4.Threat  威胁
5.Vulnerability 软弱
6.Capacity 能力
7.Resilience 恢复力
8.Emergency 紧急情况
9.Crisis  危机
10.Disaster 灾难
11.Catastrophe 大灾难
I agree with Adel that wordings differ according to different factors involved such as formality, age,gender and personality of the speakers etc. Because in Chinese sometimes we can have 100 words meaning the same thing, which always get my students (English speakers, mostly Americans) confused when I teach them new vocabularies that mean the same things covered by other words they learned. And the difference between certain words is very subtle. Like disaster and catastrophe, as you can see above I only add one more character to catastrophe, 大 (a person which is a 人 strecthing arms )means big in Chinese. Most of the Chinese characters make a lot of sense when understood through the view of pictures.
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Academia provides scientific knowledge; governments provide regulations, enforcement, and financial support; organizations bring parties together, advocate and promote participation, etc.; and private sectors innovation and technical support.
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Ultimately, the Community involvement is the key. Building a resilient society with appropriate coping mechanisms is the basic principle behind any DRR. And the other stake holders are like the Local Government and other competent authorities like National disaster Management Authority;  the NGO Networks; Volunteer Groups; the Financing Institutions; private/business ; the media; Red Cross society; hospitals and fire Fighting and other services; academic community; UN bodies. Timeliness is the essence in DRR and how quickly these stake holders act and work together is important ultimately. Each stakeholder has his/hr own responsibility in different phases of  Disasters ( such as Disaster Prevention, Preparedness, Response, Relief and Mitigation )
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Does anyone know of a set of principles or tools for community engagement that are or have been effective in developing community resilience?
I am trying to critically evaluate differing methods and approaches for community engagement based on case studies.
If anyone could suggest any effective case studies, frameworks or guiding principles that would assist me I would be grateful.
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Hei!
This recently published paper by Ross & Berkes might be helpful:
Ross, H., & Berkes, F. Research Approaches for Understanding, Enhancing, and Monitoring Community Resilience. Society & Natural Resources: An International Journal, advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/08941920.2014.905668
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Vietnam and some other countries in Asia have been predicted to be the most vulnerable to the consequences of climate change. Prediction and analysis of climate change impact in these areas is crucial to developing a solution to protect people in potential disaster areas.
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It seems important to me to conceptualize this kind of question carefully in the context of risk theory. True, vulnerability will rise with climate change, if that change indeed leads either to new hazards in a given area, or to higher magnitude (we can also expect an overall higher risk if hazard events will increase in frequency, and also here is an implicit, though not well understood link with vulnerability: if events happen more frequently people have less time to recover and are thus more susceptible to adverse effects, i.e. are more vulnerable)
At the same time vulnerability in many please in Asia continues to increase because of changes that are not directly related to hazards or climate change: urbanization, population grows, land degradation. A rapidly growing number of people live in precarious conditions (just look at cities such as Manila) – even with a constant hazard exposure their collective vulnerability grows (and this affects different types of vulnerability: physical [from poor housing, cramped spaces, but also due to surface sealing, blocked drainage), social [marginalization, growing numbers of recent migrant to urban areas with poor network support), institutional [authorities barely coping with these challenges, environmental, etc.)
So it’s not just climate change.
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I’m working on emergency logistics using “vensim software” as a systems dynamics tool and when I’m trying to set the conceptual model I face this problem (" Simultaneous Equations" and try to see or figure out where the problem or the error is but I couldn't). In addition, I've read about this matter and tried to follow this advice by respected prof as he said “A simultaneous equation problem arises when in a loop all the variable values depend on each other. A simple way to correct this is set a constant with an initial value that does not depend on others.” But still the same results and error was shown. Is there anyone who can help me with this matter as I'd really appreciate any kind of help. Looking forward to hearing from anyone.
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I can suggest two solutions. First of all check your units. Secondly while it is making iteration, probably in one iteration it generates non logic number for the later equation. Thus the advie that you wrote is a good way. Open another file and copy your model. But this time maybe you can change the time interval, for example look to 10 years with time interval 1 year , this means that you will have ten loops that are dependent to each other. By this you can find your gap.
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Early warning could warn some people to retreat from disaster.
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Remote sensing is indeed a very useful tool. However to say the level of usefulness is needed a more specific example. Let's say in the case of hurricanes, it is a really valuable resource to determine size, velocity, forecast the track and give warning to all the places that can be affected....each location that can be affected though will suffer of different effects due to the hurricane, for example rains, gale-force winds, storm surge, waves, etc. To forecast the specific type of effect it is needed though to have ancillary data in situ. What I want to say is that you cannot solve everything with remote sensing.... it can be a really good guide....
Moving into another example....in the case of tsunamis and earthquakes.... its use would be rather limited. Terrible disasters have occurred due to tsunamis and earthquakes worldwide, and its prediction and early warning is very difficult to predict....Tsunamis could be possible to predict (or detect early warnings) by the constant monitoring of the earth movement at precise locations in the whole planet!....There is a large network to detect earths movement. That information is not provided by remote sensing.
Hope this help you to understand capabilities and limitations of remote sensing.