Demography - Science topic

Hi Christopher Hogan , you are velcome.

Thank you once again for bringing up this question.

It was a very necessary question issue we need to discuss.

Best Wishes,

Hello Arya M. A.

Here are some strategies for selecting geographical locations of samples (households) using GIS tools and other systematic methods:

In fact, a combination of methods may be most effective. GIS tools, such as ArcGIS or QGIS, can assist in visualizing data, creating spatial layers, and analyzing patterns. Additionally, consider collaborating with experts in geography, sociology, and demography to refine your sampling strategy!

Best Regards,

Ali YOUNES

Metaphysics is the branch of philosophy that deals with the fundamental nature of reality.There are a few metaphysical ideas that could potentially end stratification or the division of people into different social classes one idea is the concept of social justice.

This is the idea that all people are equal and deserve to be treated fairly.Another idea is the concept of social mobility, this is the idea that people should have the opportunity to move up or down the social ladder based on their own efforts.

Another challenge is that some people may be unwilling to share power or resources with others.

Zainab mohammed Ameen, Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a novel and powerful approach in analyzing population issues and gained the attention of demographers, enhancing the position of population studies in a deeper understanding of population phenomena. Some useful links:

To conclude, As AI continues to evolve, its impact on demography will become even more profound, leading to improved policy decisions and resource allocation strategies.

If one is able to predict population and population density vis-a-vis the demographics of the people in a certain area, this would help many different entities such as the government with infrastructure planning, businesses with commercial ventures as well as housing and urban development.

Yes. It is best to consider possible factors such as age difference between couples, length of marriage, similarities or differences in culture, etc. on the dependent variable.

Of course not. If the writing is good, a research gap is filled, methodology is sound, and discussion of findings is appropriate, then it should be approved. My biggest complaint is journal editors having some obscure requirement for publication.

I've seen peers reject research because they felt no gap was filled, despite the literature describing that there was a gap.

I have not yet met any clear bias against researchers' country of origin, but I would not deny the existence of such bias. Researchers are human after all, despite any assumed 'enlightenment.'

INTRODUCTION

Childhood cancer has been increasing in

Scotland. A published report estimates that

its incidence has risen from an age standardised rate of 120 cases per million population in the time period 1983–1987 to 161

cases per million in the period 2003–2007.1

The reason for this increasing trend remains

unexplained as the aetiopathogenesis of

childhood cancer is poorly understood. As

most of the children present with cancer in

the first few years of life, epidemiologists

hypothesise that prenatal and perinatal exposures may have a part to play in its pathogenesis. The evidence surrounding this is,

however, conflicting. While some researchers

have found associations of younger maternal

age at delivery2 maternal anaemia,3 4 history

of miscarriage,256 maternal overweight7 and

smoking8 with some childhood cancers,

others have found no such associations.9–11

Fetal growth is perhaps the most investigated

perinatal risk factor for childhood

cancer7 12 13; but the authors report conflicting results. While specific central nervous

system tumours have been found to be associated with intrauterine growth restriction

(IUGR), the overall risk was small.12

Therefore, apart from the associations with

Down’s syndrome and in utero exposure to

radiation, research into the maternal and

perinatal risk factors has remained inconsistent, the results limited by small sample sizes

and recall or reporting bias.

Our objective was, therefore, to investigate

the maternal and perinatal risk factors for

childhood cancer, specifically to examine the

effects of IUGR, preterm birth and birth

asphyxia on the development of childhoodcancer in the offspring, taking advantage of the opportunities offered by record linkage of a cancer registry

with a local birth register.

odel.

Conclusions: Younger maternal age, maternal

smoking, delivery by caesarean section and low Apgar

score at 5 min were independently associated with

increased risk of childhood cancer. These general

findings should be interpreted with caution as this

study did not have the power to detect any association

with individual diagnostic categories of childhood

cancer.

I think that you are looking for a test to compare canalization between populations. I'm right? I know two ways to do that, compare variance/covariance matrix using an ANOSIM with population levels as factor, or comparing principal components (according to the variance explained you may use 2 o 3 componentes) with a Levene test. The first method is the most used and it is suggested by several experts in geometric morphometrics, but the second one looks also reliable to me, I hope i've helped, cheers.

Language maintenance is the maintenance of a language (usually L1) despite the influence of external sociolinguistic forces (usually powerful language(s) and language shift, is a shift, transfer, replacement or language assimilation of usually L1 to L2 due mainly to the external sociolinguistic forces influencing a speech community to shift to a different language over time. This happens because speakers may perceived the new language as prestigious, stabilized, standardized over their L1 (lower-status). An example is the shift from first languages to second language(s) such as the English language.

Social network deals with the relationships contracted with others, with the community structures and properties entailed in these relationships (Milroy, 1978,1980 &1987)

· It views social networks as a means of capturing the dynamics underlying speakers’ interactional behaviours and cultures.

The fundamental assumption is that people create their communities with meaningful framework in attaining stronger relationship for solving the problems of daily life.

Personal communities are constituted by interpersonal ties of different types, strengths, and structural relationships between links (varying in nature) but a stronger link can become the anchor to the network.

Such networks have the following characteristics, they are

Where do we find some close-knit networks? In smaller communities, but also in cities, because of cultural and economical diversity, e.g. newer emigrants communities, or High-educated individuals.

Functions:

These networks have the following characteristics, they are:

Lead to weakening of a close-knit network structure -> these are prone to change, innovations and influence between groups and may lead to language shift/language transfer/language/language replacement.

It is just coincidental

Hello Aymene,

I'm not sure I understand whether: (a) you have a data set which you are convinced is normal in shape, or you wish to generate a pseudo-random sample that should closely approximate a normal distribution, and (b) if you're asking about a boxplot for either data in hand or a PRS, vs. a boxplot for numerous subsamples (with or without replacement) taken from either and mapping those instead.

Here's an r script with three options: (a) presuming you have a sample and wish to create a boxplot; (b) presuming you wish to generate and plot a pseudo-random sample; and (c) presuming you wish to generate a lot of pseudo-random samples, compute mean of each, and plot the distribution of the means. Maybe one of these is what you had in mind.

Good luck with your work.

# Option 1

# pretend that vector, x, is normally distributed data that you have in hand

#

# sample data given here (note: NOT normally distributed!)

x = c(1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

#

# elicit boxplot

boxplot(x)

#

#

# Option 2

# generate a pseudo-random sample modeling a normal distribution

# having a mean of 50 and SD of 10; 100 total cases, save as "prs"

#

prs = rnorm(100, mean = 50, sd = 10)

#

boxplot(prs)

#

#

# Option 3

# generate a bunch of pseudo-random samples modeling a normal

# distribution and display the distribution of means for the set

# of samples (Here: 500 samples of n = 100, drawn from pop w/

# mean = 50 and SD = 10)

#

# initialize vector of sample means

#

samp_means = vector("numeric", 500)

#

# generate samples, save mean of each in the "samp_means" vector

#

for (i in 1:500) {

samp_means[i] = mean(rnorm(100, mean=50, sd=10))

}

#

boxplot(samp_means)

I think your design depends on the expected outcomes your study, thus the nature of your data/collection couldn't not merely determine your golden design

Further to the answer of Gamal. Yes, you could disaggregate the census data (number of persons per admin unit, e.g. county/district/census enumeration area in vector format) to RS pixel size e.g. 1 km square DEM by number and type of residential building. These residential buildings may also be extracted from RS imagery. Evidently you need also data on number of persons per household. This has been done systematically across the European Union. You may wish to have a look at this approach. In case you need a refence, let me know.

Interesting question

Not necessarily. Thank you

Also check https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15323?origin=ppub

Search :

Crouched Locomotion in Small Mammals: The Effects of Habitat and Aging

by Angela M Horner (2010)

Hello Aarti,

If you look at the M & SD for the total data set (0, 1.0, respectively), that should convince you that the saved factor scores are in a z-score metric. Based on the summary statistics, the "post graduation" batch have higher factor scores on your mutual fund awareness factor, and are most separated in mean score from the "10th" and "Diploma/graduation" batches.

As long as you indicate that the DV is expressed as a z-score, you shouldn't have any problem with data presentation and explanation.

Good luck with your work.

Dear Dr. László Vértesy , thank you for the thought provoking question.

Advantages of a decreasing population

Long term benefits

1. Will bring better balance among the living beings/organisms.

2. Extinction of Religions and Gods

3. People will celebrate life. I think there will be no artificial, man-made death in the name of God(s), Religion, Nationality etc.,

4. People will die only by natural causes. The reaming few (People) will support each other to save the life other every other person.

Short term benefits

1. Less pollution, Lesser need for food, land and other resources.

2. More pet animals are saved from the harassment of humankind and live in their natural habitat. They may live happily (may be unhappily at times) with their Father, Mother, Sisters, Brothers and could escape from the confinement.

Disadvantages of a decreasing population

1. Long term impact - Extinction of Languages, Culture, Food Choices

2. Short term impact - Economy will shrink, more unemployment, population will have fewer young people supporting huge number of elders.

3. The streets, seemingly empty streets, buildings etc., may look devilish.

Some useful links:

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-12811197#:~:text=A%20study%20using%20census%20data,set%20for%20extinction%2C%20say%20researchers.&text=The%20result%2C%20reported%20at%20the,out%20altogether%20in%20those%20countries.

Thank you for this wonderful opportunity to share my views.

Best wishes and regards

Yoganandan

The course suggested above by David Eugene Booth is really useful.

Btw, how do you measure the outcome?

The more the population the higher the social inequalities. This is why we have population theories to check population growth in line with the available resources, for instance, Malthusian population theory etc.

Dear Busayomi Oloyade ,

The demographic effect is a type of entropy.

And this forces stratification of society in a very aggressive way.

Almost always leading many people to misery given the competition for resources (employment, housing, food, education, health, etc ...). This social inequality follows a pyramid whose base is very wide (people with fewer resources) and top is very narrow (people with financial resources).

This is a worldwide effect, regardless of country, even in countries of first world, this becomes a fact.

In my view, concentration of human beings in small regions almost always has negative effects on the quality of life.

Hope this helps.

Regards,

Wiltgen

In principle, it is not relevant that your dependent variable is binary. OLS/2SLS will be consistent, even if less efficient. Nevertheless, actually, the requirements for consistency under OLS/2SLS are weaker.

Nasser Said Gomaa Abdelrasheed I just wanted to ask why do you suggest multiple regression with stepwise? is it to find the best fitting model?

Maybe Hardiness would be interesting to you.... here is our latest paper on this

Mr. Bakr

Go to Jack Baker's profile. You can find his link in one of our joint applications. Look for the articles staring with

1. "Sub-county population estimates using administrative records..."

And book chapters

2. "Forecasting other characteristics...

3. "Basic demographic concepts...

4. "Sources of demographic... information

Given power is determined by a small set of things, like effect size (so in pre-study power, the min effect size to detect) and sample size, you should think if reporting power adds anything to reporting these.

I hope so too. Thanks Dr. @Hom Nath Chalise.

The short answer is you don't. You don't sat anything about the DV so I'll assume we're talking OLS regression. other choices a re some what different. I'll tell you a rule of thumb for OLS: A min of 5 obs/IV. You are nowhere near that so standard OLS is out. I am going to assume that you want to do prediction-you don't say but you have to get rid of some IVs. I will suggest adaptive one problem down.

lasso variable selection.. See the stuff at this link including the papers esp concerning the oracle property:

. Here are the reasons:.

1 lasso runs even if p>n

2. The oracle property says that the variables selected are the optimal predictor set of you candidate IVs..- solves this problem

Hello Evans,

"Np" is N * p (the product of N and p). It would represent the expected number of instances that would be observed in a population of N cases.

Good luck with your work.

If the H is the Hessian of the log likelihood evaluated at the maximum, then the diagonal elements of (-H)^-1 are the estimated variances. Their square-roots are the standard errors (SE), and the approximate 95% (Wald-) confidence intervals are given by the MLE ± 2*SE. If the variance of the response is not known, the SE are scaled so that the ratios of the MLEs and the scaled SEs are t-distributed. You would then get the confidence interval from the quantiles of the t-distribution.

A very important problem, which is confirmed, for example, by the negative experience of privatizing unprofitable state mines in Ukraine. Even attempts to sell them for a nominal fee failed. And these are not the objects that can be "locked up". If they do not pump mine water, they pose a threat of flooding of settlements and other adverse effects.

one thing that happened at the end of the week was more monetary relaxation in China. You can read about it even in China Daily. Why is the givernment doing this? It is worried about slow growth. So, it is doing its own version of unorthodox monetary policy.

Yes, thjere is quite a lot of personal saving, but for good reason. One reason might be to pay for long-term care - which is a demographic issue.

Once you have the addresses of the members of the original facility (which is to be closed) use geocoding in ARCGIS or other mapping software to obtain the locations of people's residences. Then you can do Thiessen polygon or some other such allocation method to see how the people will be apportioned to other open facilities.

with difficulty, sometimes there are diagnostic architectural features and there may be diagnostic cultural artefacts associated with foundation levels if you can excavate these. However, there needs to be a good number since some cultures indulge in archaizing wrt things like temples or religious statuary, e.g. Egyptian material that is Middle Kingdom or late 3rd Intermediate Period/Saitic depending on whom you ask. The other possibility is stratigraphy, but again that depends on excavation and hope that you luck out and get a full sequence.

Anova is your best bet, download the mini tab it’s easy and user friendly

This is an interesting question, that I've just run across now. In the case of Japan, this is complicated by the meaning of being Japanese, which is not simply a matter of citizenship, but also an ethnic or racial identity. If I get Japanese citizenship, it is unlikely that anyone will actually see me as Japanese in Japan, although I have had friends in Japan state that they think this could change. Also, the decline in the Japanese population is not entirely viewed as a "problem". Many of my interlocutors in Japan have indicated that fewer people is a positive, not a negative. The problem lies in the transition from the current population of about 125 million to a projected population of about 45 million by the end of the century if nothing changes. Costs related to care of the elderly, and a variety of other issue, present daunting issues that are facing the government to relax, to some extent, immigration policies. This recent article of mine may be of some interest: http://bjwa.brown.edu/24-2/empty-houses-abandoned-graves-negative-population-growth-and-new-ideas-in-neo-rural-japan/

Thanks for the effort 🙂

Use Neyman Allocation

thank you for your answer

Thank you so much Taha Eser sir, I will go through the suggested link and the document. Regards!

Dhritikesh Chakrabarty

Your explanation confirned what I have suspected in my second answer: you need to know CERTAIN (at 100% confidence) the range for possible values of the statistical mean.Unfortunately, there is no such reasonable way. Imagin for a while, what your prediction is about ALL possible values of an observed quantity after finite nymber of observations. The only answer is: the whole range of physically reasonable reals. NO CERTAIN INFO ABOUT THE PD IS AVAILABLE FROM FINITE SAMPLES. Sorry, this is my final answer to this question.

For supporting this pesimistic answerr: As you have already noticed, for all agorithms building the confidence intervals, with increase of the desired confidence their range increases to the maximal possible for the assumed family of A PRIORI admitted pd-s. The more, it cannot be better when you have NO assumption about the distributions.

The only possibility is to assume that say "90% statistical confidence" means "certaintity", but obviously this is not satisfying your expectations.

Regards, Joachim

Population distribution is the distribution of data considering 100% of the entities. Obviously it is nearly impossible to obtain this. Thus in order to obtain a representative distribution of the population so that it can be characterized and analyzed one chooses a sampling distribution and studies it. If one has a few such sample distribtions, then the mean of those sampling distributions will approach the population mean mu.

I think that model-based theories are ideas which substitute realities. This could have interest in theoretical exploratory research but less interest for real and objetive research.

Dear researcher

I think some of my work could contribute to the answer to your question.

-Bayesian network method for decision-making about the social sustainability of infrastructure projects. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.12.140 These are available in my research gate profile.

Your welcome! Hopefully they prove helpful. 

145 years:

Oldest Man In History Claims To Be 145 But Wants To Die | IFLScience

www.iflscience.com/editors.../oldest-man-in-history-claims-to-be-145-but-wants-to-di...

Aug 31, 2016 - When you're approaching a century and a half, you can be reasonably pleased with your innings, although at 145 years of age the oldest ...

Professor Dr.N.Audinarayana is a famous Demographer, he wrote many books about Population projection, dynamics etc.  Try to contact directly his mail ID: audinarayana.bu@gmail.com

Dear Indrita,

Thank you very much Indrita for your reply. I have the census data. and from you now, i come to know how to calculate the distance. In fact, I have visited few places of Arunachal which are very remote yet mesmerizing.

To begin, I don’t think any of what I found is exactly what you were looking for, but I’ll bring your attention to it anyway.  I’ll start with links to resources:

1) As I mentioned, I don’t think this is what you were asking for (raw data on geographical area by municipality or population density), but it was the best thing that I could find: http://www.cedib.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Mapa-2-Datos-demograficos.pdf.  Whoever put it together must have had to input raw data.  The sources cited are Wikipedia and INE, but I’ve been to both and was not able to find raw data broken out by municipality.  I suppose you could contact the person who put it together to see what raw data was used and from which sources and where within those sources.

2) You’ve probably been here: http://datos.ine.gob.bo/binbol/RpWebEngine.exe/Portal?BASE=CPV2012COM&lang=ESP.  While it is one of the nicer databases, I don’t think it will yield what you’re looking for and from the sounds of it, you’ve already been here, but if not, you may find the link useful.

3) The link here: http://censosbolivia.ine.gob.bo/sites/default/files/imagenes/fotos_galeria/ecc.jpg  does not provide what you’re looking for either, but it is a map that actually labels all of the municipalities, which may be helpful.

I did a cursory search of the Latin American Electronic Data Archive (LAEDA), but a lot of what I found for Bolivia seemed centered on elections, and the data doesn't appear to be all that recent.  Nevertheless, it might provide you with some good leads.  You can link to that search here: https://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/handle/2152/16309/statistics-by-country?countryCode=BO&nbitems=20&collection=4::92&simplefilter=1 year&time_filter_start_date=05/11/2014&time_filter_end_date=05/11/2015.  If nothing else, you would think that those involved with activities of an electoral nature would be able to provide data on its jurisdictions/municipalities.

Somebody suggested "Atlas Estadístico de Municipios," which I thought sounded promising, so I tried looking for a copy myself, but links I found by that name merely led me to population data.

Something that may be more obvious than most is the "National Institute of Statistics of Bolivia."  It is actually an account on ResearchGate.  With 2 members and 8 publications, I don't know how much it could help you, but it's worth a try.  You can link to it here: https://www.researchgate.net/institution/National_Insititute_of_Statistics_of_Bolivia.

I've also put out a query to a reference librarian who specializes in Latin America.  She did a really good job for me once before but due to the high tempo of the grad school program I was in, I couldn't put it all to good use.  I am hoping that if she finds some good resources that you will be able to do so.  If she does, I will let you know. 

Do you have a deadline by which you need to have this information?

Dear Ranjit Kumar Mal,

There are two theses in Steven Pinker book: The blank slate.

The first one is that human behaviour is influenced by genes. As I said in the presentation of my question, the answer to this thesis is of course yes and it can be said pointless. All individual’s observable traits are related to his or her physical characteristics, which are themselves genetically determined. Consider the example of skin colour. This trait is directly linked to genes. In a country like France where employment is a major problem, finding work is harder for someone with black skin. So that the fact of being unemployed is ‘influenced’ by the individual’s genetic endowment. The same is true for all characteristics of whatever kind. Even religious convictions and political opinions are behaviours subject to these genetic influences, through the action of processes of varying complexity.

The second one is that Steven Pinker uses behaviour genetics to measure the ‘magnitude’ of this influence. The reference to a ‘magnitude’ implies an acceptance that a measurement can be defined and calculated to assess the respective shares of nature and nurture, of genes and environment, in determining the trait in question. Yet introducing this concept of shares amounts to adopting an additive model in which the respective roles of genes and environment are played out independently of each other. Such a thesis has no scientific content as these factors operate in relation to each other. What occurs between them is not addition but interaction, and this interaction is the problem to be studied. Of course it is possible to take multiple measurements, feed them into a computer and obtain a figure for the ‘heritability’ of the trait. But what is the value of this wealth of calculations if we are unable to give any meaning to the results? The one-dimensional approach of the psychologist Pinker is a betrayal of the multi-dimensional reality of genetic influence.

Finally I entirely agree with Louis Brassard view that as long that the myth of thinking is a gift will be alive then the myth of behaviour genetic will also be alive.

Immigration into England is a post WWII phenomenon.

Against would-be-educated leftists who like to say that Britain has seen many immigrant groups settling in, read Bryan Sykes's book, Saxons, Vikings, and Celts: The Genetic Roots of Britain (2006), where it is stated: "We are an ancient people, and though the Isles have been the target of invasion and opposed settlement from abroad ever since Julius Caesar first stepped on to the shingle shores of Kent, these have barely scratched the topsoil of our deep-rooted ancestry."

The strongest genetic signal, the substructure, is Celtic, followed by Anglo Saxon, and some Viking traces; even Roman "genes are very rare in the Isles". A recent study publish in Nature, "The Fine-scale Genetic Structure of the British Population," supports this book, observing that the genetic composition of Britain hasn't changed much since 600 AD.

One cannot compare the episodic migrations of genetically related people into England over many centuries with the current program of mass immigration from all over the world in the last few decades. What is transpiring in England today started in 1948 when the British Nationality Act affirmed the right of Commonwealth citizens (including those of newly independent Commonwealth countries like India) to settle in the United Kingdom. It was from this point on that non-white colonization started to increase steadily, so that by 2012 the proportion of white British had dropped from 87.5% of the population in 2001 to 80.5%. 

 My experience is limited to human demography.  The following parameters are enough to predict the behavior of population:

1)     age-sex distribution

2)     age-sex specific mortality rate

3)     age specific birth rate for women

Of course, we do not always get enough data to estimate the above parameters. For instance, instead of age-sex distribution, we may have to suffice us with the number of women before puberty, that of women in reproductive period, and that of women after menopause.

I hope this will be of some help.

Dear Miguel,

I am a historian but I have studied some parish records and Ottoman censuses and I have also had problems what data to use and in what cases. Modern censuses are more precise and complete. You should only be careful to compare the same type data, collected under the same rules and within the same perimeter. Therefore, if you have a percentage of indigenous population within the national perimeter for year 2012, you should compare it within the same perimeter for 2001, i.e. the whole population that not excludes those with no answer. Based on your message, the percentage of indigenous population in Bolivia in 2001 was 38 and that it increased to 40 during the next decade. Consequently, the share of 62 % of indigenous population within the whole population of Bolivia is overestimated because it is only the share of indigenous population within the ethnically defined part of Bolivian population. The probe calculations suggest that the number of people that provided no answer in 2001 is high (39%), but it is a quite deferent issue that needs anthropological, sociological and political science approach.  

Best regards,

Gordana

It is not the issue of the design, retro or pro. but the study hypotheses or the research questions. If you will use inferential statistics for example to compare 2 groups, or 2 time periods, you may use the ttest. etc. thus you can use G. power program which is available free online to calculate your sample size based on ttest

I think that in the supplementary information of Jones et al. 2014 Nature, you may find the response. They have also R code for calculations of life expectancy. 

Good luck!

A very interesting article by a fellow RG member that may perhaps provide some answers. Short-lived species may still thrive by virtue of higher reproductive rates kicking in at an earlier age. The survival of the species may be due to an insular environment that creates a lack of predation pressure (island effect), as was probably the case with the mammoths initially. But once the climatic changes brought about an overlap in territories, the insufficient time for metabolic rates to adapt and the increased predation pressure brought about a quick extinction.

Farid - I don't know the nature of the survey data you have for your analysis, but in most cases, surveys that provide data on mortality also have information on the population from which these data were collected from so in most cases one does not need separate data on the risk population from an independent source to calculate age-specific death rates (ASDRs) and construct a survey based life table. Assuming that the survey is well designed and sampling error is less of an issue, one should then be able to compare this survey based life table with 'official' estimates for the same population and year. However, if your concern is not getting enough cases to construct a complete life table (i.e. a life table based on single years of age), I think one of the things you can do is first to construct an abridged life table based on ASDRs for broad age groups to get enough cases and then generate a "complete life table by fitting parametric (i.e. such as the Heligman-Pollard 8 parameter mortality schedule) or non-parametric (such as spline) curve to your data. Again assuming that the survey is well designed and sampling error is less of an issue, you can then easily compare the smoothed complete life table from the survey data with your ‘official’ estimates. If need be (i.e. you want to be more precise in your comparison), you can also obtain sampling error around your survey based life table values. The following are some useful references that you may wish to refer for more:

Life Table Techniques and Their Applications  by Krishnan Namboodiri & C. M. Suchindran (1987 ).

Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes by Samuel Preston, Patrick Heuveline and , Michel Guillot   2000.

Good luck

You may try the following links for World Fertility Surveys:

The WFSs, which are similar to DHSs, are currently housed by the Office of Population Research at Princeton University, but they were originally conducted under the auspices of the International Statistical Institute.

Best of luck

You may find some useful references in the works of  Norma McArthur, formerly at the Australian National University. There was a period in European colonial history  (eg New Caledonia) when the colonised population was so disrupted, divided, demoralised and decimated by the colonists' diseases that birth rates fell to perilously low levels. Could this be the meaning? However, this is clearly not the Lapita people... about whom try Jack Golson, Daniel Frimigacci, Matthew Spriggs....

Dear Stephen,

Thanks for your answer.

I wish you a happy new year 2015

If we consider habitat suitability index as quantitative assessments of habitat relationship, you can find lot of them related to plants, they are usually named as species distribution models, habitat suitability models, ecological niche models. As stated before, you can build your own suitability model if you have species occurrence data related to environmental data likely to influence the distribution of the species. You have several methodological approaches, I usually run Generalized Linear Models in R statistical software using the rms package by F. Harrell (e.g. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236870185_Modelling_species_distributions_with_penalised_logistic_regressions_A_comparison_with_maximum_entropy_models)

In some regions this kind of models are already fitted for several tree species and habitat suitability maps and/or species response curves can be generated and downloaded from public online resources (e.g. http://www.magrama.gob.es/es/parques-nacionales-oapn/publicaciones/Semillas_-_Anexos_tcm7-320577.pdf, http://www.opengis.uab.es/wms/IdoneitatPI/index.htm, http://spatial.ala.org.au/)

I'm not convinced that a "simple, logical, biologically-based explanation" for DT is possible.  The social/political/economic behavior of humans is too complicated to be completely explained by biology.  The key feature in the DT is initial decline in death rate and then decline in birth rate.  Decline in DR occurs with better health care, hygiene and sanitation systems, improved nutrition and reliable food supply. Decline in BR occurs with greater willingness of females (and males) to use contraceptives. Use of contraceptives and family planning becomes more prevalent as women become better educated and take control of their own reproductive futures.  At a fundamental level, DT is the composite outcome of choices that humans make. Certainly, there may be some innate biology in action when a person makes a social and economic choice.  But this innate biology certainly does not explain DT.  It is tempting to want a biologically-based explanation for DT because if it is based in biology it might be seen as more scientific and valid.  However, it already is scientific and valid.  I agree that "the theory with greater scientific value will have a greater impact" .... but with regard to DT, "impact" on what?  We need DT to have an impact on politicians and policy-makers (particularly in the USA) in the form of awareness and realization that it is a good thing for a country and humanity in general. A speculative and unnecessary biological explanation will not help.

Be sure to consult the Excel file provided with Timæus and Moultrie (2013) and available for download!

In the standard Solow model, population growth is bad for output growth (in the transition to a new steady state) because the stock of existing capital becomes diluted across more people, so that the capital falling to each individual in the economy is less. Once a new (lower) steady state level of output per capita is reached, the latter will stay constant if the rate of population growth as well as the other characteristics of this economy do not change. It is true though that in such steady state the growth rate of total output will be higher, the higher the rate of population growth.

There might be also historical examples e.g. from medieval ages, when large amounts of wood were burnt for iron procession and for daily life support. Corresponding communities had to adapt to limited resources either by emigration or by developing sustainable "allmende" regimes, which regulated resource consumtion. More data about this might be found in:

Bevölkerungswachstum und Naturhaushalt

Sieferle, Rolf Peter. - Frankfurt am Main : Suhrkamp, 1990, 1. Aufl.

The subterranean forest

Sieferle, Rolf Peter. - Knapwell, Cambridge : White Horse Press, 2001

Best, Stephan

As far as I know there is very few information on such matter in the Macaronesian or Mid-Atlantic Islands, but some studies may be of interest. I can cite two, one unpublished report and a book chapter (written by me):

CONTRERAS, M. J. (1988). Seguimiento de los micromamíferos del P. N. de Garajonay - La Gomera. Resultados: noviembre 1987 - nov. 88. Centro de Coordinación de Parques Nacionales, ICONA. La Laguna. Unpublished report. 10 pp.

BARONE, R. (2009). Mamíferos (Excepto Quirópteros), pp. 424-426 (in): Fernández, A. B. (coord.), Parque Nacional de Garajonay, Patrimonio Mundial. O. A. Parques Nacionales. Madrid.

(I attach the pdf file pf this last reference).

Marc.

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Let's discuss on points, not necessarily in order.

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First, as the discussion on human migration is very complex and contributions have reductionist aspects, I totally agree, and if you have the time to read the comment you put there twelve days you will see that critical exactly!

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In the comment quickly put a dozens of premises that should be met to begin a discussion about migration, and lots of chances not to give certain results.

Migrations have aspects that can be quantified physically but most of them are not quantifiable, for example, populations philosophical and religious views. So what I conclude is that precipitate this discussion is to build a false problem.

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In relation to natural climate change or human-induced (where I have my restrictions), creating desert areas into fertile areas this occurs both in cooling and heating situations, however there is a physical rule that no one has yet rejected, is when we have a globally cooling GLOBAL rainfall decreases, and the reverse is also observed, warmer GLOBAL climates generate greater rainfall (GLOBAL). Now change the position of desert areas definitely occur.

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The basic point in my opinion is that if we discuss GLOBAL IMPACTS climate variability in the world as a whole, with the heating definitely will have a positive balance of precipitation leading to decrease in arid environments (globally).

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As for the article you were coordinator I finished downloading it and enigmatically in his first reference of your review (Parmesan & Yohe 2003) surprisingly it reinforces some of my initial text. The introduction is written as a big problem, "Global meta-analyzes documented Significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or meters per decade upward), and Significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade.".

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The big difference is that for anyone who has a view of nature immobilist, nearly a creationist view that the Garden of Eden must remain immutable, consider a catastrophe tundra to be receding at a speed of 6.1km per year, while I see sterile tundra the last millennia being replaced by a fertile region that was once home to thousands of mammoths. With more time I will look carefully review.

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I'm sorry, I do not see nature as something static, that must be preserved as a beautiful English garden. I'm not talking about the destruction of it and transformation into a more sterile