Debt - Science topic

Most respondents to the 2022-2023 Global Risks Perception Survey chose “Energy supply crisis”; “Cost-of-living crisis”; “Rising inflation”; “Food supply crisis” and “Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure” as among the top risks for 2023 with the greatest potential impact on a global scale . Those that are outside the top 5 for the year but remain concerns include: failure to meet net-zero targets; weaponization of economic policy; weakening of human rights; a debt crisis; and failure of non-food supply chains.

Six major global issues, each of which relates to one or more of the SDGs: (i) food security; (ii) human health; (iii) land management, including land restoration; (iv) water security; (v) climate change; and (vi) biodiversity preservation.

7.9.2023 the central bank in Poland, i.e. the National Bank of Poland, despite the fact that still, despite the end of the Covid-19 pandemic more than a year ago, large amounts of additional money are being injected extra-budgetarily into the economy as part of the pre-election government social programs, inflation is still over 10 percent, average wage growth is over 10 percent, the rate of economic growth shows no signs of economic recession, the debt level of the state's public finance system is growing rapidly, oproc. of bank deposits is at a low level that does not even compensate for the level of loss of purchasing power of money, the cost of servicing the public debt is growing rapidly, the national currency is weakening reduced interest rates. by 0.75 percent. Most financial analysts, even taking into account political factors in addition to economic factors, were forecasting a reduction of these interest rates by 0.25 percent, not by 0.75 percent. Besides, this was also based on what the president of the National Bank of Poland said and declared at previous press conferences. Financial analysts economists have already become accustomed to the fact that the declarations made at press conferences by the president of this central bank are determined mainly by political factors, often diverge from the facts, contain inconsistencies with objectively conducted analyses of the macroeconomic state of the economy, and so on. The key issue is that the next parliamentary elections in Poland are scheduled for 15.10.2023. The monetary policy pursued by the central bank in Poland in recent years clearly confirms the thesis of strong informal ties between this policy and the government's economic policy. The covid and postcovid monetary policy pursued since 2020 first contributed to inflation from 2021 due to the strong easing of this policy, and then when it was tightened from October 2021 it acted mainly anti-conjunctural instead of anti-inflationary. The anti-conjunctural effect of the previously tightened monetary policy in Poland was mainly due to the fact that commercial banks operating in Poland for many years have been granting long-term mortgages and business loans at variable interest rates for more than 95 percent of the time. This is a kind of evanescence of banking in Poland compared to other developed countries. Oddly, the forecasting analyses developed at the central bank before the earlier monetary tightening apparently did not fully take into account this important economic factor. This is yet another point supporting the thesis that a highly politicized monetary policy is being pursued in Poland. This then raises the following question: won't a monetary policy conducted in this way, in which economic factors are less important than political factors, soon cause mistakes to be made again when conducting this policy and lead to another crisis in the economy? I, on the subject of monetary policy and its role in the issue of systemic credit risk management and in the context of the emergence of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, conducted research, the results of which I have published in several scientific articles. These articles are available on my Research Gate portal profile. I invite you to join me in scientific cooperation.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

The above text is entirely my own work written by me on the basis of my research.

In writing this text I did not use other sources or automatic text generation systems.

Copyright by Dariusz Prokopowicz

On my profile of the Research Gate portal you can find several publications on the problems of monetary policy and its role in the issue of systemic credit risk management and in the context of the emergence of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. I invite you to scientific cooperation on this issue.

Dariusz Prokopowicz

I tend to realize that money for rich people is more like a joke.

Urgent reform is needed for all higher education in the world for the interest of the students ! Of course fine-art majors' students may need sometimes even face to face, one to one study with their academicians !

I do not see other way out of this inmense crisis within the European Union. Neither MEDE, nor Eurobonds. From an overlapping generations perspective, with children and young people (who have probability quasi-zero of being infected) being forced to stop their lives and careers, we mid-age and mature people are the ones who must bear the cost of the COVID-crisis. And this means inflation (never debt). Therefore, direct monetization of aid for the shock and partial debt relief. And then, a re-europeization of the investment flows (yes, protectionism) with a strong industrial policy direction in mind.

I am conscious of the asymetric international effects of the shock within the european partners. But, either we together, and in the current generation, bear the whole cost in the form of inflation, or our legacy for future generations (within an already highly leveraged framework) is conmdemned to a Euro-collapse in 15 years. What do you think?

Most respondents to the 2022-2023 Global Risks Perception Survey chose “Energy supply crisis”; “Cost-of-living crisis”; “Rising inflation”; “Food supply crisis” and “Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure” as among the top risks for 2023 with the greatest potential impact on a global scale . Those that are outside the top 5 for the year but remain concerns include: failure to meet net-zero targets; weaponization of economic policy; weakening of human rights; a debt crisis; and failure of non-food supply chains.

Six major global issues, each of which relates to one or more of the SDGs: (i) food security; (ii) human health; (iii) land management, including land restoration; (iv) water security; (v) climate change; and (vi) biodiversity preservation.

Increasing public debt over the period of time in most of the countries is a cause of concern for the government. It has impact on governments capacity to borrow and spend.

Thanks to high inflation, tax revenues increase in the central state budget, the main element of the state's public finances. Research centres independent of the government estimate that, thanks to high inflation in recent quarters, around PLN 5 billion has additionally flowed into the state budget. As the indebtedness of the public finance system has increased dramatically over the past few years and, in addition, during the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic, the government has injected over PLN 200 billion of additional, printed money into the economy, so the risk of indebtedness of the public finance system is growing. In the situation of a deepening downturn in Br 2023, the scale of the debt of the state's public finance system could still increase significantly. In such a situation, rating agencies operating through investment banks could significantly lower the solvency and creditworthiness ratings of public finances, which would result in an increase in the investment risk of funds invested in Treasury bonds and it would be necessary to increase the interest rate of these securities sold to foreign investors. This would significantly increase the cost of rolling over successive series of issued treasury bonds and increase the cost of servicing the debt of the state's public finance system, the cost of servicing public debt. For the government, it is better to keep inflation high, because this way the scale of the increase in the cost of servicing the public debt is smaller. Unfortunately, this comes at the expense of the rapidly declining purchasing power of the money available to citizens and economic agents. From mid-2022 onwards, the wage increases that employers are implementing for employees in companies, enterprises and institutions no longer compensate in full for the rapidly declining purchasing power of money due to high inflation. This whole process, which began with the use of so-called Anti-Crisis Shields during the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic, is the result of Poland's short-sighted and chaotic economic policy. These Anti-Crisis Shields consisted of non-refundable financial subsidies for the majority of economic entities operating in the country in the form of government subsidies to salaries of employees working mainly in commercially operating companies and enterprises and other forms of financial support aimed at limiting the scale of growth of unemployment during large-scale lockdowns imposed in Poland on selected sectors of the economy and national quarantines introduced during as many as three consecutive waves of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic from March 2020 to early 2021. The procedure of imposing the Shields on operators in certain economic sectors during the ongoing investigations in many countries was considered questionably legitimate as so-called 'anti-pandemic safety instruments', i.e. slowing down the development of coronavirus infections. The main effect of the aforementioned Anti-Crisis Shields was an increase in inflation already from the beginning of 2021, followed by an increase in interest rates by the central bank in Poland, i.e. the National Bank of Poland, between October 2021 and September 2022. This resulted in a significant increase in loan instalments paid by borrowers to commercial banks and a decrease in the creditworthiness of new borrowers. Then, from as early as the beginning of 2022, economic growth began to decline rapidly, inflation continued to rise, investment levels began to fall and by the end of 2022 the beginning of a decline in consumption was noticeable. From mid-2022 onwards, housing developers have been reducing investment levels in the construction and delivery of new houses and flats. Accordingly, the chaotically short-sighted economic policy pursued, in which the pandemic crisis of 2020 was exacerbated by lockdowns imposed on selected, mainly service sectors of the economy, and the so-called Crisis Shield programmes applied, triggered an increase in inflation and an even more serious and economically realistic deepening of the downturn in 2022 and 2023. In addition, the applied restriction (solar energy, biofuel-based energy) and inhibition (wind energy in 2016) of the development of renewable and emission-free energy sources caused a significant decrease in the energy security of the domestic energy sector resulting in an extremely acute energy crisis of 2022, highly costly for citizens. In view of the above, the chaotic short-sighted economic policy conducted by the increasing level of state interventionism carried out by the government over the past 8 years, including the increasing level of government control of certain sectors of the economy, the increasing scale of the application of the so-called "Anti-Crisis Shield", the increasing scale of the introduction of additional, printed money into the economy without coverage led to the formation of even greater crises. As the next parliamentary elections are due to be held in autumn this year 2023, which the PIS political option in power for the last eight years plans to win, so further programmes of non-refundable subsidies for selected types of enterprises continue to be applied, which becomes another pro-inflationary factor. However, high inflation for the government apparently is the least of all problems, because thanks to high inflation, as I wrote above, tax revenues to the state budget are higher and thus the cost of servicing the high public debt is lower.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

And what is your opinion on this?

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please respond,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

When, in March 2020, following the WHO's declaration of a global epidemic or pandemic, there was a panic sell-off of investment assets on the capital markets and the risk of a deep, double-digit recession of the economy emerged, central banks cut interest rates and the governments of some countries launched financial assistance programmes on a record scale, consisting of non-refundable financial subsidies for commercially operating companies and enterprises in various sectors of the economy, refinancing of fixed costs of economic activity, deferral of payments of contributions to the social security system, tax reductions, etc., the state's financial resources for these large assistance programmes will be used to finance the crisis. The state drew its financial resources for these large financial aid programmes from additional issues of treasury bonds, which were purchased by commercial banks, investment banks, enterprises, citizens and in some countries, such as Poland, mainly by the central bank. Additional, huge amounts of money introduced into the economy without being covered by manufactured products and services, as predicted in mid-2020, generated a strong increase in inflation on the basis of an increase in the prices of raw materials, products and services, which began almost at the beginning of 2021. Additional large amounts of money without coverage in economic goods in some countries such as Poland were introduced into the economy outside the budget, i.e. by transferring this additional money to special purpose funds created for this purpose functioning in institutional government agencies bypassing the state budget. These institutions distributed this money in the form of mainly non-refundable subsidies to companies and enterprises, some of which did not function because they were temporarily in lockdowns introduced by the government. During the 2020 pandemic economic crisis, therefore, interventionist, historically large bailout programmes based on so-called Crisis Shields were applied, and in some countries mainly on the basis of issuing and selling to commercial banks, companies and citizens additional Treasury bond issues. Many banks purchased these treasury bonds in large quantities when, prior to the pandemic, inflation and interest rates were much lower than in the 2021 - 2023 period. During the 2020 pandemic, central banks further reduced interest rates to interventionist low levels. Some commercial and investment banks, with the economic downturn and recession deepening during the pandemic, bought government bonds treating these instruments as safe assets during the economic crisis and as they reduced the scale of their lending and/or investments in securities generating higher levels of investment and credit risk such as shares issued by listed companies due to the recession of the economy. However, when central banks started a cycle of interest rate increases from 2021 and 2022 onwards, then the prices of previously issued government bonds with lower interest rates on stock exchanges began to fall, as these securities lost their previous attractiveness. At that point, rating agencies began to downgrade the ratings of banks that had previously purchased large volumes of previously issued sovereign bonds with significantly lower interest rates, in view of the average market interest rate levels already prevailing from 2022 onwards, then the problem was recognised. This problem was the potential insolvency and large financial losses of these banks. However, when analysed on a macroeconomic level, the problem is now much broader. Well, public debts have increased strongly in many countries after the pandemic economic crisis of 2020. The increase in inflation already predicted from mid-2020, which started to materialise from 2021, caused central banks to raise interest rates. On the one hand, some investment banks like Silicon Valey Bank and Signature Bank, which had invested a large part of their funds in government bonds just before the cornovirus pandemic at several times lower oproc. levels for these financial instruments, generated large financial losses and collapsed. On the other hand, thanks to high inflation, the real value of public debt in many countries is falling.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please respond,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

Warm regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

A review of the impact of public debt on economic growth in Nigeria

The world is still suffering from the consequences of the pandemic. The problem of bursting deficits and growing public debt is one of the problems that existed and has worsened further as economies are exposed to the pandemic, resulting in closures and deficits, and Governments are pumping liquidity to avoid devastating downturns. And it is no secret that the source of this liquidity was the excessive purchases of government bonds by central banks, With the beginning of the recovery and the opening of economies, production, trade and investment conditions are expected to improve, but the astronomical level of public debt remains a major concern for all. and possible problems that require extraordinary action that may negatively affect productive investment.

In these circumstances, can the same criteria of public debt continue to apply? The economic situation at the time of the outbreak of the pandemic was characterized by decline and deterioration, not only because of a war or a decline in demand, but also because of the epidemiological situation that prompted governments to close, and so there was a halt in the flow of raw materials, goods and funds not only between countries but also within the economy.

This question was previously asked on September 1, 2019, before the outbreak of the epidemic and before the outbreak of war in Eastern Europe.

Have central banks caused in the past more climate change due to an ultra-long period of low-interest rates and QE, or have the green initiatives sidelined by more and more central banks helped contain climate change?

Cherish research.

technical debts described as choices that done for fast initial gains but are counterproductive in long term. while code smell defined as signs of weak designs and coding.

i am just confused with the difference. is that the reason, time it took to solve or anything else? please help!!

The following analysis of the situation applies to the country in which I operate: Despite the National Bank of Poland's November forecasts suggesting an increase in inflation at the beginning of next year, 2023, the Monetary Policy Council has once again, for the third consecutive time (counting October 2022), kept NBP interest rates unchanged. Despite the constitutional provision on the independence of central banking, the NBP's monetary policy is significantly politicized. How politicized it is was evident during the NBP's involvement in the procedure of launching and applying on the largest historical scale since the 1st wave of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19) the monetarist concept of using domestic money as an anti-crisis instrument, thanks to which it was possible to quickly pull the economy out of the recession of the 2020 economy in 2021 (caused mainly by the introduced lockdowns and national quarantines) and thus generate an increase in inflation (mainly core inflation), which began to rise almost from the beginning of 2021, i.e. a year before the outbreak of war in Ukraine. According to the opinion of most economists and financial analysts, the NBP started raising interest rates too late in 2021. Because of this delay and the unreliable information policy regarding the forecasting of monetary policy, many borrowers are currently paying more than double the mortgage and business loan installments. Already, commercial banks are reporting a rapid deterioration in the quality of their loan portfolios due to the increasing number of loans that are not being repaid on time. As the central bank in Poland, i.e. the National Bank of Poland, in the period from October 2021 to September 2022, raising interest rates, significantly tightened monetary policy, so bank loans in the offers of commercial banks have become much more difficult to afford. With the economic downturn forecast for the next quarters, banks are further restricting access to credit by tightening lending policies. The result is a rapidly developing downturn in an increasing number of industries and sectors of the economy. More and more companies and businesses are freezing employee salary increases, announcing job cuts or already implementing them. Apparently, then, the belated and staggered strategy of raising interest rates is not causing a brake on inflation, but is causing more of a deepening of the downturn then the obvious question is to stop raising interest rates. Besides, what's the point of tightening monetary policy if it doesn't work, as the government continues to "sprinkle cash as if from a helicopter" (a reference to Milton Friedman's Helicopter Money) under a still soft fiscal policy and, in addition, conducted under the formula of adding money wherever and however much it can with an eye to political issues and future parliamentary elections (autumn 2023) instead of conducting "spotty" measures according to a social welfare strategy only for people and economic entities that really need this assistance to avoid bankruptcy. After all, the worsening financial problems of many SME businesses are not due to misguided business management decisions only to misguided, haphazard, ad hoc economic policy, including fiscal policy by the government (and monetary policy as well) and due to rising inflation, rising prices of fossil fuels, energy prices, raw materials, prefabricated goods, etc. The worsening energy crisis is also an offshoot of the government's indolence, ignorance, negligence, etc. over the 7 years (but also before that) of the necessary green transformation of the economy, including the development of renewable energy sources, nuclear power, etc., that is necessary to carry out. And the cost of these mistakes made in unreliable energy, climate, environmental policies will increase in the years to come due to CO2 emission fees. And who will pay these rising costs of the mistakes made in chaotic economic policies? As usual, these costs are passed on to the public.

In view of the above, I address the following questions to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

What is your opinion on this topic?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Warm regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

How do you measure the capital structure for an insurance company when it is by nature leveraged?

My argument is that the debt/equity ratio is problematic for financial firms.

The central banking system is the most corrupt system ever designed.

It enslaves people counties, states , nations in debt and pillages natural resources as collateral.

The central banks have been responsible for the largest disparity of wealth in human history.

Is the central banking system anything other than a mafia, or syndicated crime network?

In the past, already since the commodity crises of the 1970s, the period of the beginning of the development of various new types of derivatives, the increase in the scale of deregulation and liberalization of the operation of financial markets, the change of international monetary systems through the replacement of the Bretton Woods system with free exchange rate systems, the scale of instability in financial markets, including capital markets, currency markets, stock exchanges has increased significantly. During the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, data emerged confirming the facts of speculative activities by some investment banks, which increased the scale of development of the aforementioned crisis. Also, at the beginning of March 2020, when the World Health Organization declared the state of the global epidemic, i.e. the so-called SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic, this fact also triggered a strong increase in the volatility of asset valuations in the capital markets. When new events suddenly appear that generate uncertainty, fear then financial risks, credit risks, currency risks, liquidity risks, debt risks, etc.increase, which causes an increase in volatility in financial markets. Institutions that take advantage of this kind of situation, institutions that have sensitive information, use this kind of information and, on the basis of this information, carry out insider trading in certain capital markets are an example of imperfect functioning of financial markets. Such instances of imperfect functioning of financial markets, including capital markets, should be detected and limited by institutions established for this purpose, such as the Securities Commission, the Financial Supervision Commission, the Banking Supervision Commission, etc. The functioning of financial markets should be improved, and the rules, standards and procedures of individual institutions and segments of financial markets should be perfected. When it is the so-called small, small stock market investors then it is assumed that this is a positive factor in ensuring a certain level of liquidity in the capital market. However, when transactions are carried out by large financial institutions, including banks and investment funds with the involvement of large financial resources in an amount, for example, comparable to the value of the state budget of a small country, then there are quandaries about the possibility of deliberate not only exploitation of situations of instability in financial markets, but also about possible actions that amplify or even inspire these instabilities. For example, military actions and failures of critical infrastructure installations, high-risk system infrastructure, energy sector infrastructure can be factors that cause a significant increase in asset price volatility in capital markets, including energy commodity prices on commodity exchanges and securities prices on stock exchanges. A recent example would be failures, perhaps sabotage actions carried out on pipelines filled with natural gas causes destabilization in energy commodity price markets. This causes the currencies of small economies, i.e. Poland, for example, to fall. In addition, a significant increase in interest rates on the currencies of large economies like the US and the EU increases the scale of the decline in the currency of a small, developing economy and one that is highly exposed to the energy crisis. In addition, the war in Ukraine is taking place next to Poland. In addition, large, internationally operating investment banks can take advantage of this situation to conduct profitable speculative transactions using currencies characterized by a high level of exchange rate volatility and susceptibility to certain defined influencing factors. A decline in the exchange rate of the Polish national currency PLN will cause additional difficulties in the central bank's anti-inflationary, interventionist monetary policy. The topic of the need to improve the issues of the functioning of financial markets, including the improvement of the rules, standards and procedures for the operation of individual institutions and segments of financial markets is still relevant.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of researchers and scientists:

What are your thoughts on this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Warm regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

I ask because this kind of financing of various government social and economic programs has prevailed since the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic in the country where I operate. On the other hand, the indebtedness of the country's public finance system has been growing successively for many years, both in absolute terms and in relative terms expressed in terms of the ratio of budget deficit and public debt to GDP (for several years now). The country's possibility of direct purchase by the national central bank, i.e. the National Bank of Poland, of Treasury-issued government bonds and rollover Treasury bonds during the global financial crisis of 2008. At that time, monetary policy also changed regarding Poland's possible adoption of the euro single currency. Since the adoption of the euro single currency would have entailed the loss of the National Bank of Poland's key functions as a national central bank, i.e. first and foremost the functions of the state bank and the issuing bank, which functions of national monetary policy would have migrated to the European Central Bank. If this were to happen then the government would lose the key instrument of anti-crisis measures it has been using on a historically large scale since the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) Coronavirus pandemic, which is the ability to add domestic money and introduce this additional money (without coverage in manufactured products and services) into the economy through the above-mentioned mechanism of direct purchase of Treasury bonds by the central bank, i.e. the National Bank of Poland. Most of this additional money is introduced into the economy extra-budgetarily (it is not included in the annual state budget) through government-controlled public institutions, i.e. Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego and the Polish Development Fund. Special purpose funds are created in these institutions to finance specific government anti-crisis, pro-development, social and investment programs. When, at the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) Coronavirus pandemic, the government decided to use this anti-crisis mechanism then economists independent of the government signaled that the result would be a large increase in inflation which then occurred almost from the beginning of 2021. On the other hand, the state of the country's public finances is taken into account in the development situation at the supranational rating agencies and investment banks. Recently, the cost of servicing public debt began to rise strongly in Poland. At the end of October 2022, the yield on domestic Treasury bonds offered to foreign investors rose to as high as 8-9 percent.

This means raising the financial risks associated with the fiscal policy pursued in recent years and the growing indebtedness of the state finance system.

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of researchers and scientists:

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Warm regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

What can a populist social and fiscal policy based on subsidies and handouts lead to with the money of the public finance system in a situation of economic downturn, falling state budget revenues and growing indebtedness of the public finance system?

What can the ever-increasing subsidy- and welfare-based populist social policy and the soft fiscal policy with money from the state's financial system lead to through increased public debt and the printing of national money?

The political objective of the socio-economic policies implemented in this way, including social, budgetary and fiscal policies, is the plan to win the next parliamentary elections by the political party currently holding the reins of power. However, the economic consequences and the impact on the state's finances in the years ahead could be seriously negative.

Such socio-economic policies may contribute to continued high levels of inflation in the coming months.

What other negative effects could arise from such socio-economic policies in the future?

What can the ever-increasing populist social policy based on government subsidies and handouts and the soft fiscal policy implemented with the money of the state financial system, which is raised through the increase of public debt and the printing of national money, lead to?

What is your opinion on this topic?

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please reply,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

In your country, does the state support SME entrepreneurs in order to reduce the scale of potential company bankruptcies that are likely to occur in the context of rising energy prices?

There are reports in the media of various governmental, financial support solutions for SME entrepreneurs, subsidy programmes for the purchase costs of more expensive fuel and electricity. Such interventionist measures by the government are being implemented in order to limit the scale of potential company bankruptcy, which will probably occur in connection with rising energy prices. The key objective of this type of anti-crisis, interventionist economic policy is to limit the scale of the economic downturn, increase in unemployment, decrease in production, decrease in tax revenue to the state budget, etc., which will probably appear in the following quarters in connection with the continuing high inflation, growing prices of fuels, electricity and other production factors, which constitute a significant part of the costs of the processes of producing goods and offering services by economic entities. Since such governmental programmes for supporting entrepreneurship are financed from the funds of the state finance system, an important factor limiting the scale of their application is the level of indebtedness of the state finance system, the governmental practices carried out in terms of adding money and introducing additional amounts of uncovered money into the economy, as well as the level of inflation. However, in the context of current policy, the issue of limiting the projected rise in unemployment and the downturn in the economy can be considered a priority.

What is your opinion on this subject?

Please reply,

I invite you all to discuss,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

In recent times, the economic crisis is creating many problems, with social clashes in the world. Recently, we have seen the example of Sri Lanka. I would like to ask scholars if we are facing the effects of structural adjustment policy of the last decades, following the settlement of the debts?

In Australia tertiary education is quite expensive. Here kids are working since they were 14 or 15 and therefore they feel that to continue their education considering the rising cost of tuition they don't want to avail Higher Education Loan Program (HELP) since a master’s degree just perpetuates indebtedness. Furthermore the primary benefit of forgoing a master’s program is saving money. Another equally compelling fact is when deciding to pursue a master's degree one must review associated costs, job prospects, salary, debt, and potential impact on savings and retirement. Strangely in "down under" the feeling is "its not what you know but who you know that counts most for your job prospects".

Hi, I am currently writing my thesis about Swedish companies on mid- and large-cap Stockholm OMX. It is about earnings management and I have some problems to understand the formula. To get the accruals I am following this model: TAt = ∆CAt - ∆ Casht -∆CLt + ∆ DCLt – DEPt. But i don't know how to find DCL, it is explained as "the change in the amount of debt included in the current liabilities in current year". How do i calculate this and where do I find the relevant data? I am using Orbis database to get the relevant data. Do you know how to find it, and if so, how to calculate this. Is it something that i can find directly in the balance sheet?

Best regards,

Daniel

i am using nsso data on debt investment survey 2019 in stata . i calculated the average debt per household. i got the exact number of observation based on area i.e rural and urban as per nsso report. but there is difference in average debt per household as per report even using weight. any help in this regard

I am looking for legal models to determine the place of taxation and the procedure of debt registration.

Thank you!

The national debt of the United States has increased significantly in recent years. At some point, steps have to be taken to reduce the debt. So, in your opinion, what method(s) is best to reduce a nation's huge national debt? Why do you consider it the best method(s)?

how was the American corporate debt in 2009-2019? Why it was so high? What impact did it bring out? What did the government do to solve it? How did those approaches work? What can they do now?

Or if there were any suggested reading, you can simply posted it.

Dear Scholars,

What are the indicators of a Financial Instrument (Long Term Debt) can I deploy to measure SMEs performance?

Can I get any data on WDI or any other database?

Please help me out?

A question for deep thought: Does the democracy in its current form, based on the model of ancient Athens and Montesquieu's idea of a tripartite power model with political parties in power, not causing a gradual collapse of the market economy?

Why do I think so:

first, since the Western world has:

a) crowd manipulation technologies (social engineering),

b) mass media (especially television, Internet)

c) is in the credit money regime, and it easily creates electronic money

in democracies based on the rule of political parties, there is a tendency to a very high rate of debt borrowing by governments (debt often above the critical limit of 90% in relation to GDP), but also to allowing such debt from the electorate. Societies have become very demanding, expecting multi-faceted welfare and even a basic / guaranteed income for the unemployed. The oldest democracies, such as Greece, Italy (including ancient Rome) or France, have been plunging for many years into gigantic debt, both domestic and foreign, contributing to the weakening of their region (Western Europe), and they also set a negative example for young democracies from post-communist countries that you can expect a lot of expenses from your government and live beyond the means (i.e. at the expense of future generations now, with impunity)

Secondly, I observe the process of state appropriation by the ruling parties, i.e. taking up positions in state-owned companies and in public media by politicians and their supporters, who often finance a selected political party in the election struggle during the next elections.

Third, I see a process of growing negative selection for the highest state positions in Western democracies. People with low professional achievements and low personal culture are becoming more and more often (see examples of the USA, Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Greece and many others) among the highest political authorities, we notice it especially since the end of the 20th century people who are poorly prepared to govern with low professional qualifications, low morals, but pushed by big corporate capital and / or by the party power apparatus. These new leaders of modern democracies are unable to introduce wide-ranging economic reforms (pension reforms, health care reforms, or urgent ecological shifting of the economy), put off difficult matters to be dealt with now.

What reforms does modern democracy need for the economy to have healthy finance, clear and simple fiscal system, healthy society, people who can not only get an education in a given country, but also a creative job?

Already at least several commercial banks have created their own cryptocurrencies. Some investment funds invest part of their assets in selected cryptocurrencies. Recently, the investment bank JP Morgan has created its own cryptocurrency JPM Coin. Cryptocurrency JPM Coin will be used to settle initially a small part of the transaction, which JP Morgan performs on a daily basis for a total of about USD 6 billion.

Thanks to JPM Coin, settlements between business partners should take place immediately, ie much faster than the current standards of transfers. However, apart from accelerating the time of the transaction, what are the other goals for banks to introduce their own cryptocurrencies?

Could investment banks create a new type of collateral for transactions in the event of a possible strong loss of the USD dollar in the event of another global financial crisis connected with the currency crisis? Such a risk exists if the problem of growing public debt in the US is not resolved and banks in China cease to buy US Treasury bonds.

Do you agree with my opinion on this matter?

In view of the above, I am asking you the following question:

Please reply

I invite you to the discussion

Thank you very much

Best wishes

Dear All,

Few years ago Reinhart and Rogoff published their study on how many countries were in economic default (not being able to pay off their debts) during last centuries.

'percent_in_default.png' is the plot for 1800-2014 and 'share_in_default.png' is a histogram of that time series (data taken from https://carmenreinhart.com/this-time-is-different/).

It looks like the most frequent situation is the state where c.a.10-18% of countries are in default. Is it a "stable state of default" in the world economy? Is there literature on that?

Dear Researchers,

I am estimating threshold level of public debt across countries. When I estimate threshold level I get encouraging results of threshold level but all control variables are insignificant. How do I deal with insignificant variables?

Note: I am using panel data and panel threshold model.

Thanks,

I am looking for currently trending topics in Finance/Investments/Social Impact Investment/Risk management/Debt management suitable for a phd proposal

My topic is Financial performance of SMEs using Islamic versus Conventional Financing.

I have two financial performance variables of ROA and ROE, and Three predictors, Debt to Equity, Short-term Debt and Long-term Debt with two control variables of Tangibility and Growth. I want to add Liquidity in my model. Shall I add it as predictors or control variables?

Looking for your suggestions. Thank You

What research data is available/known (e.g. papers, surveys, simulations, data sets, etc.) on modelling a Business Enterprise finances (Microeconomics) based on mapping its Financial Elements (like Asset, Debt, Equity, Income, Expenses, etc.) to the concepts of natural laws of Physics (like Mass, Energy, Force, Momentum etc.)?

Dear all,

I'm currently working on my master's thesis that looks at firm performance given certain CEO characteristics in the United States, using a panel dataset of all firm years from 2000-2020 extracted from Compustat.

I've ran some regressions for ln(Tobin's Q), ROE and ROA.

My ceo characteristic dummy variable is significant for log of Tobin's Q (0.021), however it's nothing close to any significance for ROE (0.862) and ROA (0.934)

I got my data from Compustat and I used the following definitions for my independent variables:

Log of Tobin's Q = ln((Market Value + Total Debt + Preferred stock liq. value)/Total Assets)

ROA = Net Income/Total Assets

ROE = Net Income/Stockholder's Equity

Also, as a side note, I noticed that the ROA and ROE values calculated seem very strange, please see attached pictures of summary tables.

I have 2 questions.

1) Is there something wrong with the ROA/ROE calculation? If so, what might it be? Again, the calculation was simply done by dividing the raw data of Net Income and Total Assets from Compustat database... I also checked SEC 10-k to confirm some weird companies, and in fact, some actually do have either 0 assets or like $80 in total assets which is baffling. see:

2) In case ROA/ROE cannot be fixed, what other performance measures are popular to be used on US firms for the purpose of robustness checks? Suggested papers would be extremely appreciated!

Thank you very much!

Dear Researchers,

I am running a regression with 8 control variables and one independent variable. I tried all indicators of GDP per capita (GDP PC) such GDP pc growth rate, GDP pc (Current US$) and GDP pc (constant 2010) to test the relationship between public debt and economic growth. I use GDP pc (constant 2010) and GDP pc growth rate but they give insignificant results. When I use GDP pc (Current US$) I get all variables to be significant and the results are now very satisfactory. So can I use GDP pc (Current US$) as my dependent variable? Please guide me. Please provide some reference link or any literature which supports to use GDP pc (Current US$) as dependent variable.

Thanks.

1. Is there any data available on the quantity of bad or doubtful developing country debt owned by multi-lateral development banks and governments which has been written down?

2. Would MDBs be able to accurately estimate the difference in value to them of a loan they might make to a developing country in hard currency vs local currency?

Was talking to a smallholder farmer in rural Kenya. He took a loan from a local bank to do maize (corn). Unfortunately the crop failed. The Bank is on his neck.

do you think there could be a better way to design these loans to smallholder farmers so that financial tools like loans, meant to empower them do not turn out as torment.

What role institutional investors play in important corporate decisions such as the choice of corporate debt maturity?

It is very common for Taxonomists to request insect specimens, from a number of institutions and museums, to assist them in their research on specific insect groups. It can take a few years to actually make use of these specimens and reach a conclusion with published descriptions. The institutions that make these loans in good faith, find themselves having to chase researchers for the return of the loans. I have heard of loans still not returned after 30 years and this may mean the loss of these specimens due to retirement or even death of the researcher. This issue is a BIG problem and so what would be a reasonable time for these loans to be made for? What ways can these institutions encourage researchers to return loans without threatening sending in the debt collectors?

I'be veen diving into post Keynesian money supply theory but so far have not encountered papers that also describe money destruction when debt is paid off. Since maturity of loans is (mainly) determined by the bank I also came to the conclusion that money creation is indeed endogenous but money destruction is exogenous, thereby creating a mixed system. Has anyone found any literature on the money destruction side of this theory? And what are your thoughts?

1. Variables of Capital Structure are Total Debt, Short-term debt & Long-term debt Whereas,

2. Financial Performance measured by ROA & ROE

3. Firm Characteristics i.e. Age, Size, Location, Sector & Ownership structure.

4. Owner-manager Characteristics like, Age, Gender, Education, Experience & Ethical background

Your suggestions that how the Firm Characteristics and Owner-manager Characteristics are measured? and which estimation techniques uses for this type of data?

I don't know how to calculate non performing loans using the balance sheet as the only element appear there is the allowance of debts .

Thanks in advance

I am doing a regression analysis with following variables:

Debt forgiveness grants (current US$) [Independent var]

GDP per capita percentage (constant 2010 US$), [Dependent var]

[Control var:]

Exports of goods and services (current US$),

Foreign direct investment, net inflows (current US$),

Total natural resources rents (current US$), and

Oil Crude Prices (2019 US$ per barrel).

My question is, should I use a common unit for all of them. If so should it be current US$ or constant 2010 US$?

Also for the independent var and oil prices, constant values aren't available, so should I convert them using CPI?

**Deleted**

Hi there,

I am currently working on my master´s thesis where I aim at analyzing the evolution of Spanish household debt as a function of income distribution. I have been searching for data on consumer credit, but I have found nothing convincing yet. I was wondering whether you know any datasets that widely coverage different dimension of household debt in Spain (something similar to Equifax credit consumer panel for the US).

Any help/suggestions are appreciated.

Good afternoon. I want to ask how I should create the code in R to create a lag of variable? I am doing a panel regression where I examine the influence of determinants on government debt and I would like to add a lag in government debt as debt accumulation. I have quarterly data for period 2003-2020 for 3 countries. My model is:

fixed <- plm(diff(GD) ~ diff(GDP)+diff(GE)+diff(TO)+BSB+INF, data=data, index=c("country", "year"), model="within")

Thank you

Diamond (2019) define cash flow pledgeability as the fraction of realized cash flows that are automatically directed to an outside financier. More than that, we can say that pledgeability changes according to the payment risk to which the firm is exposed. For example, when the safe cash flow component is large relative to total cash flow, pledgeability is maximized by offering a safe repayment in every period; essentially safe short-term debt. On the other hand, the risky part of the cash flow makes up a significant fraction of the firm's overall cash flow, pledgeability is maximized by alternating between safe and risky repayments.

Increasing pledgeability means closing off tunnels for cash flows generated by a future decision maker. For example, Rajan (2012) affirms that by moving to a simpler corporate structure today, or by making contracts with more transparent suppliers with stricter rules, the incumbent ensures that future cash flows cannot be diverted to some nontransparent entity. By improving the high quality of accounting systems, independent audit firm, the incumbent restricts the scope for future managers to play accounting games to hide cash flows. Any shift from transparent accounting procedures to less transparent procedures, or from a reputable auditor to a less reputable auditor, would be noticed and invite closer scrutiny, impacting the pledgeability level.

To these mechanisms that affect the degree of pledgeability, we call asymmetric information. For example, Berger (2005) verified the effects of risk and information asymmetry in relation to the company's debt maturity. Through maturity data, risk assessments and other contractual conditions, the authors prove that a reduction in information asymmetry is associated with increases in maturity for low risk companies and also suggest that asymmetric information has a strong quantitative role in determining maturity debt.

Given the amount of research involving asymmetric information, some conclusions are important to understand how pledgeability is affected, fluctuates and can compromise other decisions of the firms. By this way, what factors impact the pledgeability of Brazilian companies?

More and more large companies are announcing the creation of their own cryptocurrency. Some investment banks, such as JP Morgan, have announced the creation of their own cryptocurrency for settlements with key contractors. Some technology companies operating in the field of ICT and new online media also plan to develop blockchain technology in cryptocurrency applications. For example, the social media portal Facebook also announced the creation of its own criticism called Libra, which the users of the portal will be able to pay for various services available through Facebook. Some investment funds invest their financial capital in some cryptocurrencies.

Whether in the context of the development of cryptocurrencies, the share of transactions made with traditional money issued by central banks will gradually decrease. Will the development of cryptocurrencies and their rapid dissemination not jeopardize the stability of the monetary systems of some countries? If the share of traditional money in total transactions made by citizens will decrease, will the significance of the financial system, including the banking system, also decrease? If there is a large unpaid public debt in a given country and a decrease in the use of traditional money in transactions between entities, can it lead to a serious financial and / or currency crisis? Many countries finance their public finance debt by issuing Treasury bonds in which foreign financial institutions also invest. So, can future cryptocurrencies be used for international settlements in the future? Can the decrease of confidence in the national currency of a heavily indebted country lead to an increase in international settlements using cryptocurrencies?

Do you agree with me on the above matter?

In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:

Please reply

I invite you to the discussion

Thank you very much

Best wishes

What do you think about the further growth of gold price? Do you think that the upward trend is coming to an end? Or may be we observe a temporary turbulences caused by the US presidential elections and some other political reasons? The COVID situation is not optimistic, nor the debt problems. All such facts should cause further growth of safe asset prices...

In many countries formal rules have been adopted or guidelines have been included in key national legal regulations according to which public debt in the amount of 50%. Gross Domestic Product is interpreted as not generating high risk of domestic debt.

However, in some countries, the public debt in relation to Gross Domestic Product for many years has been at a level well above 100%.

Among these countries are developing countries but also large, rich developed countries.

On the other hand, if such countries are increasingly global, systemic credit risk may grow and if another global financial crisis similar to the one in 2008 could emerge in the future, it could turn into a serious global debt crisis.

In view of the above, let me ask you: Do you think that public debt is 50% to the Gross Domestic Product generates high or low risk of indebtedness of the country?

Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.

I am presently working on Early Warning System (EWS) for predicting debt and financial crises for a group of countries. I am prioritizing EWS developed by IMF but there are EWS developed by private sector which too have power to predict debt and financial crises. Binomial and multinomial Logit and Probit models are widely used to predict debt and financial crises in the literature. Please suggest a way forward for me.

Thanks

I am regressing stock market participation (binary variable equal to 1 if an individual owns equities and 0 otherwise) on debt and a bunch of control variables using a logistic regression. debt is not significant. But, if I add risk aversion as an additional control variable, debt becomes significant.

I tested, and did not find any evidence for multicollinearity.

Any ideas why the significance of debt changes when adding risk tolerance?

Money is no longer what it used to be. We now only deal with the creditworthiness as a unit of money. It is no longer coins and notes or gold and silver and bronze. Those items feature only on small transactions where cash is needed. But to buy a Boeing or a house, electrical data signaks are used - not even cheques anymore. Bank notes themselves no longer represent precious metals, but teh power to acquire goods and services. It is all about debt. Getting overindebted, on the other hand means that you have less on no credit points to offset your credit obligations. That coudl result in insolvency or bankruptcy.

I therefore need frequently occuring triggers of such overindebtedness that could lead to insolvency if not reolved, and what causes them to stick around and result in insolvency?

Is there a theory which interpreted the impact of the exchange rate on the public debt ?

and Is there a theoretical framework for this relationship ?

how we can compare distributive effects of debt and equity in economics?

To measure consumer debt relative to personal disposable income and consumption relative to personal disposable income.

Mansi and Reeb (2002) state a curvilinear relationship between internationalization and leverage.

However, I'm not sure about the right interpretation of their results.

If this paper is clear to someone, any discussion about it would be helpful :)

Thanks in advance

Best regards,

Samia

I have trouble looking for a dataset that will have different kinds of loans (such as loan to value, prepayment, debt to income, etc...), including especially forbearance. I have tried kaggle but did not find any relevant CSV file; other resources are confidential or charge researchers.

Thanks for any assistance.

Unfortunately, for several decades in most countries permanently budgets of public finances, state budgets are unbalanced, they are usually in deficit. Such a situation generates the risk of excessive indebtedness and loss of liquidity in public finances of the state. In a good economic situation, deficits tend to fall, but in a period of declining economic growth, deficits are rising and there is a risk of a public finance crisis. In such a situation, the state, in order to maintain liquidity, raises interest rates on treasury bonds in order to find buyers from domestic and foreign investors. This problem appeared in the countries of the south of Europe after the appearance of the global financial crisis in the autumn of 2008.

In connection with the above, the governments of individual countries should from year to year reduce the state of public finance debt, ie reduce public debt and budget deficit. However, for many years, in many countries, public debt and budget deficit, despite good economic conditions, were not reduced despite good economic growth. Why despite the good economic situation in the 90s and the beginning of the 21st century, ie before the emergence of the global financial crisis in 2008, public debt of the state finances and budget deficit in the state budget were not significantly reduced or reduced?

A fully balanced state budget should not have any deficit. Why do not the governments of many countries care about this issue and forward this unresolved problem of state funs to the subsequent ruling teams? Perhaps the answer to this question arises from this question. Well, usually several summer political cycles of exercising power by a specific government team are not correlated with the period of the business cycle.

Do you agree with me on the above matter?

In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:

Please reply

I invite you to the discussion

Thank you very much

Dear Friends and Colleagues of RG

I invite you to discussion and cooperation.

Best wishes

I am testing the effect of macro and firm-specific variables on the leverage of SMEs. So I have both, panel data for SMEs and cross-sectional data for macro variables, as my independent variables and panel data of firms' debt composition as my dependent variable. Can you all suggest which model to use for this purpose?

Hi everyone,

I'm desperately looking for data about debt location ?

The only solution I have so far is "Refinitiv", a database with an access at a 11,000 EUR cost, which I clearly cannot afford.

If someone knows a less expensive way, I'm in :)

Best regards,

Samia

If your country is already in debt close to depression, corruption on it's peak, and has lack of maintained basic services throughout it's rural parts of the country, how do you increase it's currency value when one of it's major source of revenue is government loans?

If Company A issued bonds 5 years ago with an initial interest rate of 6%, why do we take current yield-to-maturity if it is, for example, 4,5% right now? The bonds are sold a long time ago and are just traded on the secondary market, while the company is still paying 6% of nominal, which should be the cost of capital? Am I wrong?

Hello,

Could someone tell me where I can get information about debt location. More specifically, I need to know the countries where the companies of my sample have issued bonds over a given period.