Cyclones - Science topic

Scholars

Shifting Geographies of Expertise and Policymaking

A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

But Extreme Weather Prediction models are yet to reach accuracy

Maryam Teymouri This manual might be helpful, have a look: https://cyclonetracker.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/sample-page/documentation/

Dear Mohammed ..

I hope these references might be helpful. Kindly have a look.

Regards

Gowhar Meraj

Dear Abdul Qayoom Bhutto

Please kindly consult Ditchek et al.. (2017)

“The Relationship between Tropical Cyclones at Genesis and Their Maximum Attained Intensity”

Tropycal is a Python package intended to simplify the process of retrieving and analyzing tropical cyclone data, both for past storms and in real time, and is geared towards the research and operational meteorology sectors. So, I am not sure what you mean by "cross-track" analysis, and while I do not use Tropycal, I kind of get the feeling that it would provide you the tools you need to analyze TCs. Attached is a best tracks plot of TCs in the SW Pacific for the 2020-21 season; it is color coded by wind strength. I attach this as an example of what I think a "cross-track" analysis product is. A second plot shows TC frequencies during a time period - that could be another such product. Frankly, I really don't know what you want to do, but somehow I think that the Tropycal package can probably assist you. If I am wrong, then my apologies, but again, you asked a question and I merely provided you with a possible solution. Good luck in your work.

After initializing your solution in Fluent need to go to file>data file quantities>select the variable you want it to appear in CFD-Post then press OK then write the case & data then run your case after that when you go to CFD-post you will find the the requested variable exist.

i hope this will help you Edward Jenks

Its very much related because cold water transfer to warm water area. As a result upwelling occours. Surface water very much related to upwelling.

Normally it is number of typhoons made landfall on a certain region or area of interest. Except this, the trends in Tropical Cyclones can also be checked in their intensity (i.e., if they have become more intense recently).

My following paper might be of your interest in this regard. We checked trends and regimes.

Yes, a lot of works have already proved the scientific validity of the phenomenon of climate change which happens due to global warming induced by the increasing amounts of green house gases. All the weather extremes events you narrated plus the sea rise is a direct consequence of it. The the carbon dioxide level in the atmospheric air which was some where around 350 ppm during the pre industrialization era has increased to a level of 417 ppm today. This clearly proves the cause. Understandably and as predicted climate change impacts the life on earth, more so during the last two decades. Now the frequency and damage levels are increasing. No doubt the greatest issue to be addressed by man kind. Everyone knows but nothing tangible happens.

The observation made are very pertinent in the background posted towards self reliant NEH region. The secondary agriculture activities on value addition are most needed. System intensification by use of conservation agriculture also needed specially for maize based system. The various studies on conservation agriculture showed good promise in the region and provided opportunity for second crop. The use of maize for silage baling could also help in enhancing livetstock productivity. The quality protein maize having high lysine and tryptophan showed a promise for food, feed and nutritional security for improved human health and pig and poultry productivity.

The sweet corn also showed good promise in Mizoram needs to be upscaled elsewhere. The babycorn and popcorn also needs to be explored for enhancing income and livelihood security.

The use of small-scale mechanization needs upscaling by using suitable machinery in the region for durdgery reduction and enhancing farm profitability.

Dear Gaju Ahmed

Check out this page: https://regards.cnes.fr/user/swh/modules/8

I came over it from the last Sentinel-2 Team Validation Meeting. You can also perform your own geometric processing to make the images superimposable with the service SWH-CARTO-2A: http://swh-2a-carto.fr/.

FYI I have not tried any of them, so please give us some feedback if it works.

Prakash Biswakarma if possible you can communicate with Pro. Ashis kumar paul, Vidyasagar university. I think he will help you.

Multivariate analysis will give you a more conceptual perspective on which variables are driving the Copepods' community, therefore you can run a Spearman correlation ranking using PRIMER based on p-values to opt for combination of variables that have significant impact in the Copepods' biomass. Or else do an Ecosim with Ecopath model. I hope I make sense.

The Indian city of Calcutta was devastated by a powerful cyclone that killed at least 84 people in India and Bangladesh. On Wednesday, cyclone Amfan hit coastal areas of India with ferocious wind and rain. The cyclone gradually weakens, moving North towards the state of Bhutan. Thousands of trees were uprooted, power lines were destroyed, and homes were completely destroyed. Most of Calcutta's roads are flooded, and 14 million people remain without electricity. Amfan is the first super cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal since 1999. Restrictions imposed in the country due to the coronavirus pandemic hinder emergency response and assistance. Covid-19 and social distancing measures have made mass evacuations difficult, as temporary shelters cannot be used at full capacity. It is reported that at least 72 people were killed in India, and 12 people in Bangladesh. The chief Minister of West Bengal, mamata Banerjee, said that the destruction that the super cyclone brought to Calcutta, the state capital, was "a bigger disaster than Covid-19". Officials in Bangladesh fear that amfan will become The deadliest cyclone since cyclone Sidr, which killed about 3,500 people in 2007. As you know, most of them died as a result of the high tide of sea water. The weather Department of India predicts storm surges of water 3-5 meters high. The overall level of destruction in Bangladesh has yet to be assessed, but it is clear that the areas that were in the path of the Hurricane suffered the most. In the city of Khulna, North of Sundarbans, at least 83,000 homes were destroyed or damaged, the Dhaka Tribune reported.in the Bay of Bengal since 1999. Restrictions imposed in the country due to the coronavirus pandemic hinder emergency response and assistance. Covid-19 and social distancing measures have made mass evacuations difficult, as temporary shelters cannot be used at full capacity. It is reported that at least 72 people were killed in India, and 12 people in Bangladesh. The chief Minister of West Bengal, mamata Banerjee, said that the destruction that the super cyclone brought to Calcutta, the state capital, was "a bigger disaster than Covid-19". Officials in Bangladesh fear that amfan will become The deadliest cyclone since cyclone Sidr, which killed about 3,500 people in 2007. As you know, most of them died as a result of the high tide of sea water. The weather Department of India predicts storm surges of water 3-5 meters high. The overall level of destruction in Bangladesh has yet to be assessed, but it is clear that the areas that were in the path of the Hurricane suffered the most. In the city of Khulna, North of Sundarbans, at least 83,000 homes were destroyed or damaged, the Dhaka Tribune reported.

Hi Peter and Aurelio,

Thank you for the suggestions.

I have successfully ran a web server demo using NIOS II. I will look into Linux kernel to communicate with an SQL database.

Regards,

Syasya

If one is interested in distance on a sphere, as Dean points out above, the great circle distance is the thing to use. The best source i know of, in this regard, is "Smart's spherical astronomy" which also deals with the complexity of dealing with the terrestrial atmosphere, that contributes to such things as the Sun's apparent oblateness, and "differential refraction", etc.

It really is the peak of analytic methods for these kinds of effects.

Check the ansys tutorial for the cyclone meshing.

It's very important

Thank you Prof. Pudykiewicz and Prof. Mestas-Nunez for sharing your knowledge. I think more research, more discussion and time ( knowledge generation from time series analysis) will tell the actual answer. Thanks.

Hurricanes and typhoons are the same weather phenomenon: tropical cyclones. ... The same type of disturbance in the Northwest Pacific is called a typhoon. Meanwhile, in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, the generic term tropical cyclone is used, regardless of the strength of the wind associated with the weather system

@Eman Ali Al- Khafaji,

Regarding your respone above, you forgot to include the relevant reference source (https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cyclone.html).

Okay..I will try it for all levels then, thank you so much, It was very helpful

I talk about https://ferret.pmel.noaa.gov/Ferret/

Assuming your would like to identify the center of the tropical cyclone by its low pressure and assuming that you have a series of pressure organized as a netcdf-file, for instance, with three axis:

So the first step could be to compute the temporal minimum pressure field

let press2Dmin = pressure[l=@min] ! minimum in time

Now lets compute for each time step the pressure difference to the 2dim minimal pressure field

You shall find the center of the tropical cyclone at the locations where the difference is zero

let pressLoc = pressDiff[l=@loc:0] ! Find in time/ L-index

I have been inspired by the documentation at https://ferret.pmel.noaa.gov/Ferret/documentation/users-guide/variables-xpressions/XPRESSIONS#_VPID_174

I hope that it helps to answer your question.

Hello Sneh. A cyclone needs about 20m/s gas velocity at the entrance. You probably know the flow rate, so it is easy to design the entrance. Other dimensions like cyclone diameter are easy to find because there are fixed relations between dimension. For example the width of the entrance corresponds tipically to 20 - 25% of diameter.

General necessary condition for having a cyclone is surface water vapor evaporation that mostly depends on SST (Sea Surface Temperature) to produce saturated bulk of humidity for moist-convection, the other alternative is having a low-centered pressure as a disturbance to have a convergent zone and then moist-convection and low level high-vorticity. These conditions between those two regions are not the same. Furthermore, there are some studies represent the effects of pre-monsoon and post-monsoon activities upon BOB's cyclone production.

It seems that you oversimplified the methodology of study and your way of reasoning needs to be modified. Below is a list of some suggestions (it's not all) that might be useful. By considering them, you can choose a statistical or dynamical method to study the topic:

1) A few phenomena and variables are able to affect rainfall in the Bay of Bengal. So logically if you are willing to study just the effect of cyclones activity, then you should be sure that at that time and space the other players have the same behavior. Because you can compare just comparable.

2) Some major players are: SST (Sea Surface Temperature) [There is a positive gradient of temperature toward equator], SSP (Sea Surface Pressure), APSL (Atmosphere Pressure at Sea Level), Wind speed, and atmosphere temperature.

3) Some major currents that affect precipitation at Bay of Bengal are: inter-seasonal Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Rossby Waves, Kelvin Waves, etc. So comparable day should have almost similar pattern preferably.

4) Cyclonic activity have a daily or weekly frequency, so finding appropriate frequency is a key point.

5) Based on your desired method, you and your supervisor can design your research plan.

Time variation of MSLP is not the best diagnostic for midlatitude cyclones. I propose look at intensity of the vortex during nonlinear evolution for example its vorticity, potential vorticity, mean azimuthal velocity with respect to the core, and pressure contours around the core accompanied by water vapour tracer field. By these diagnostics the evaluation of nonlinear evolution is much easier.

Thank you. I will have to look at extracting to get a Al that can be used to make aluminium without chemicals. Thank you again.

In my previous study below, I used WSM6 for MPS, KF for CP, YSU for PBL, and RRTM for radiation. But it could be different in different cases.

During the mean time you plan a sensitivity test with microphysics, you may also want to think about WRF's tropical storm bogussing (serch "bogus" at http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/user_guide_V3/users_guide_chap5.htm#_Description_of_Namelist) to improve the initial field, which may or may not make the model less sensitive to MPS selection.

Tropical cyclone track could be traced by locations of lowerest sea level pressure data. Here is an example: http://www.meteothink.org/examples/meteoinfolab/trajectory/typhoon_path_trace.html

thanks a lot. I was wasting my efforts on ANSYS to create my own 3D CAD model. GT suite is more suitable software for this. There are so many research papers for Higher CR on gaseous fuels here. I requested them. Once i recieved them my half problem will solve itself. i still beleive that i can work around 20-25 CR thus acheiving higher efficiency in SI engines and there will be no derating of diesel engine at all.

You will issues at the boundary and their you could apply smoothing technique through GIS tool. It would be difficult in correct in one go, but it would take some time and Experts help.

FYI

I think that Sec.2.1 in this paper can answer your question

It is not easy to clearly identify PBL height in the tropical cyclone(TC) partly due to its interaction with the underling warm sea surface during the TC's life time. Observation and modeling data show that tangential winds have their maximum near 850 hPa level and radial winds change their direction near 850 hPa. The radial winds blowing into the TC's center is strong near 950 hPa. On average and roughly speaking, we can say that the top of inflow layer equals the PBL height.

De-gritter is grit removal tank. Early design for grit removal was square constant level short detention time tank. The corner zones are sloped into central circular grit collection zone. These basins are designed in accordance with ASCE 1992 to maintain detention time of 1 minute or less at the design flow rate.

A cyclone De-gritter is also used to remove the grit from the sludge . Grit chamber may not be installed and grit is accumulated with the sludge removed in primary clarifier. Cyclone De-gritter uses centrifugal force to separate the heavier particles from the lighter particles.

Entropy: A concept that is not a physical quantity

Found this useful

We already analyzed both dust more in

Hope Sir, this article is worth full for you.

http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/xnSRKCeXh8TYqcj56wNt/full

ADCIRC is a surge model using finite element method. 

SLOSH model used by NHC/NOAA

Kindly see the following link,

regards,

For gases flows you may use ideal gas relation PV=mRT. You may convert this to your desirable parameters. In high speed flows, you may study gas dynamics. 

 Wikipedia says: 

But you could check in:

Have some ideas too..

Sir, It is 408 km/h in cyclone Olivia

Thank you both!!

Hi Sir,

Its very interesting topic. The following article links may help you,

https://www.researchgate.net/project/Mode-I-Fracture-Parameters-Using-Steel-Fibers-in-High-Strength-Concrete.

It looks like you have installed NCL from a default Debian-based repository which is actually outdated and causes a lot of troublues due to incorporating a bit different scheme of NCL's directories and not setting environmental variables to your shell.

I would strongly recommend to uninstall the current version of NCL and follow these documentation to install NCL from binaries: https://www.ncl.ucar.edu/Download/linux.shtml . Actually, it is the only way to install NCL properly on Ubunt/Mint/etc. machines.

Dear Nicolas,

The position of atmospheric fronts on weather maps are determined with more surface meteorological parameters, such as: forms of sea level pressure, the tendency of pressure, temperature, types of clouds, precipitation, wind and humidity; and with more upper parameters, such as: pressure, temperature, wind and humidity. Also, these parameters are different for cold, warm and occluded fronts. In addition, the position of the front is determined the orographic obstacles. Products numerical weather prediction not contain explicitly positions of atmospheric fronts. On these products positions of fronts are drawn later with the help of the general criteria of recognizing fronts. This is usually done by specialists, synoptic meteorologist. He draws the position of the front with the help of synoptic experience. Thus, the position of atmospheric fronts is not completely objective atmospheric parameter. Determination of the position of the front is partly based on subjective experience synoptic meteorologist. The criteria for the position of fronts are best learned in the courses offered " Weather Analysis", and / or "Synoptic Meteorology", and then in practice. Also, the criteria for determining the front can be found in books of similar titles (e.g. Djuric, D., 1994: Weather Analysis. Prentice-Hall, New Jersey, p. 304.)

Best,

M.B.Gavrilov

Thanks a lot for your answer, John. I understand the method you provided, which is also the traditional method used in industrial fluidized bed. A simple assumption of this method is the dense bed have a constant density throughout its height. However, I have measured the density profile of a fluidized bed throughout its height by multiple pressure taps. I found the density usually decreases with increasing height especially in high-velocity turbulent flow regimes. In an industrial fluidized bed design, how to properly locate the three taps (more commonly adopted as I observe) will influence the accuracy of the determined bed surface level. I think your suggestion to measure the bed density in the middle of the bed may be a good advice. Your suggestion to dampen or average the pressure signals is also good to encourage application in industrial DCS systems. Anyway, thank you very much, John.    Yongmin

Maybe our thinking is flawed - we seem to expekt ENSO must be an oscillation. In fast we even call it one. What if both phases are just different responces to a somewhat random forcing? 

you should read the scholar's answer carefully. Mr. Arun have uploaded his published article while answering your previous question.  he worked on Sentinel-1 dataset for Chennai flood. in this article, it is clearly mentioned, how the sentinel-1 images of pre and post event were used to assess the inundation. read that article once and you will get the idea how to use the SAR image. please refer the article.

Hello Mr. Alkhayyat

You could use the following link.

Good luck.

Dear Arun,

Global Precipitation Measurement or GPM is a program of several space agencies led by the US space agency NASA whose objective is to make periodic measurements of precipitation close to the level of the entire planet. This program is a continuation of the mission Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission with broader objectives. Several satellites must collect data whose consistency will be ensured by the GPM Core Observatory satellite developed by NASA with an important participation of the Japanese space agency JAXA. The data collected by the GPM satellite fleet should improve the daily weather forecasts, better prevention of natural disasters related to flooding or droughts, and for the long term, help improve modeling of change climate. GPM Core Observatory is a satellite of 3.2 tonnes which carries two instruments developed especially: a dual frequency radar and a radiometer.

GPM extends the scope of observations in low-intensity rainfall (up to 0.5 mm per hour) and the snow, which predominate at mid and high latitudes. This capability required the premise developing appropriate instruments.

The Global Precipitation Measurement program aims to measure precipitation globally and is implementing several satellites. It is based on the implementation of a central satellite (GPM Core Observatory) carrying a radiometer and radar to measure rainfall from space and serve as a reference to unify the measurements made by the other spacecraft attached in the program.

With my best regards

Prof. Bachir ACHOUR

You can also consult the famous Holland (1980)'s paper: MWR 108(8) 1212-1218 which can give you good indication for wind profiles in hurricanes. Such profiles are largely used in the literature.

Best

G.C.

What type of tracking you gonna to do? You wanna use pressure/vorticity fields or satellite data?

Dear Sureshkumar Nekkala you mean tropical cyclones?

If so, the Arabian Sea is one of the centers of origin of tropical cyclones.

Did you mean specifically abnormal amount this year?

Specifically, specify question please.

Regards Vadym.

one year ago , I found it , and downlaod from the official weasite. But I don't know why they disaperar recently, if you want , I would forward the data which I download one year ago.

Dear Sajith Galgamuwa

I think it depends on your case study area. You know cyclone  covers a large area. so I think you need 0.5*0.5 products of TRMM, but as I told it's necessary depend on case study's area.

After that you can use, these links:

Best wishes

Nasrin

In Mexico you would have to log into the National Meteorological Service web page and choose de automatic weather station option. Most of this stations measure every 10 min and report measurements either every hour or every 3 hours. You would have de choice of data for last 24 h @ 10 min, or last 7 days @ 60 min or last 90 days @ 24 h.

in terms of visualization theory, you could color-code your altitudinal ranges, or simplify the maps by dividing each representation by altitude or altitudinal ranges.  You should not represent the various wind vectors or isovents/isovels, at various altitudes on the same map.  It will not be clear to the viewer (percipient) if you combine ALL vectors/contours on the same map, WITH the alititudal ranges as well.  Either define each range or grouping by color, or separate them on different maps (diptychs, triptychs, etc).  Good luck, TRP

Thank you

Actually tropical cyclone movements depends on several factors. Here is one link i am adding for further reference. hope it will help you

Satellite and aerial images do provide time sheets of the delta evolution. Post cyclone surveys are also recommended - see for example the below you can download from research gate:

Fritz, H.M., Blount, C.D., Thwin, S., Thu, M.K., Chan, N. (2009). Cyclone Nargis storm surge in Myanmar, Nature Geoscience 2(7):448-449, doi:10.1038/ngeo558.

Fritz, H.M. (2009). After the storm, Nature Geoscience 2(7):528-528, doi:10.1038/ngeo568.

Considering small scale application an entrainment of small or light ash particles seems the easiest way. Then gas should be cooled down to condensate volatilized impurities at the surface of ash fines (quite typical behaviour of nucleation). Cyclone can be used in next step. However in case of large content of tar and volatilities it can be plugged quite easily. In such a case impurities (particles/droplets) can be removed during gas flow through the water spray and particle-drop or drop-drop collisions. Produced slurry can be separated by filtration. Water can be separated from liquid volatilities then returned to the system and then lquid volatilities and solid/tar particles can be burned.

Such solution seems reasonable in relatively small scale plant. In bigger ones electrostatic precipitators are more profitable.

I think for some natural hazards, the forecasting is the best way enables us to take the most important measurements.

I would suggest to have a look on approaches that are applying Bayesian Networks for risk assessment as, e.g. presented at the conferences of the Australasian Bayesian Network Modelling Society (ABNMS) (http://abnms.org/conferences/abnms2013/program.php). An interesting recent related book that I can also suggest is: N. Fenton and M. Neil, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks, CRC Press, 2012. (http://www.bayesianrisk.com/)

You can get this from various publications of IMD.

I believe the factor 30 is simply a scaling parameter so that M=1 when RH=70%.

See the original work at: