Conflict Analysis - Science topic

أنا لا أتعامل مع الأشخاص السلبيين الذين يحاولون التقليل من شخصي أو عملي، لهذا أحاول تجنبهم قدر الإمكان، وجعل سخريتهم بمثابة تحدي للإبداع في عملي والوصول إلى مراتب أعلى، بهدف إثبات أهميته والتأكيد على قدراتي

Unfortunately, many debates are won by violence. People become large and intimidating when venting an opinion steeped in emotional experience.

You will be surprised with my answer but you will be even more shocked after researching it yourself. So here is my answer.

Study banking, finance and debt. To begin with, read Debt: The First 5,000 Years Paperback, by David Graeber. Then read about (almost) all central banks around the world that report to no one save BIS.

Then research what happens to the countries that do no succumb to BIS?

I give you 4 examples. Iraq (under Saddam Hussen), Iran (today), Syria (today), and Libya (Khaddafi).

Good luck!

What I know is that such studies are informative when using qualitative approaches to explore your research ground.

Dear Alistair,

Good for you!

I am pioneering author of courses about natural disaster and DRR since 2006 the Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies at the University of Warsaw.

It is program approval for students; there is the protocol for work.

Students have an opportunity to do the thesis in the subject. But last years my institution not help me to developing this work because lecture is in the end of study, on last semester of Master Study).

I have cooperated also international students (in 2017) and scholar of The Lane Kirkland Scholarship Program, in this year.

I have been Bachelor and Master Thesis's supervisor about disaster since 2008.

I am an author of publication in Polish language about ethics aspects connected with natural disaster, too. I have also cooperated with RCB in Poland, and expertise’s for them in 2019 but not about ethics kind.

Kind regards,

Dorota

Ronaldo Munck Congrats for the work.

Frederic Lowen is very close to my holistic view of cognition, economic action and human health.

In addition, I would say that the works of Silvio Gesell have a lot of economic options to offer for the next decades.

The sensitization of human thought and will for new economic bargaining models (the win/win economy) is the key to unlock the door for better living chances.

The EU derives a great deal of legitimacy from its foundational myth of transnational reconciliation. It has consistently championed a consensual approach to traumatic memory reaching from the abyss of the World Wars and the Holocaust to post war peace and prosperity. But the storyline is losing its lustre. All across Europe, populist and nationalist movements are successfully challenging the official EU narrative. They use the heritage of war and violence to push conventional, confrontational notions of collective belonging – with very dangerous consequences. Social cohesion is fraying and ethnic tensions are on the rise. Plus, since most of this happens well within the rules of the democratic process, the EU is watching helplessly, rendered impotent by a sympathetic but unengaging cultural memory (BULL)

I strongly believe the US-China trade war occurs as a result of political change in the US. Discontent regarding bilateral trade with China, which has long been accumulated through the years, has triggered power shift in the US. In addition, the Chinese would never budge as they are ready for all out war. Consequently, this war would keep going on unless another power shift occurs in the US.

I don't think international governance or third country would be able to meditate this conflict. Both countries insist that they are in position to dictate the world. It is not the other way around. The Dispute Settlement Body of the WTO was skipped from the beginning. Hence this conflict can only be solved by the US and China alone.

The conflict you're talking about has at least 2 dimensions. One is about technology, and the other one is about identity. Technological development in the contemporary era of global networks is in a way that results of a new innovation in one country can become a fashion in another country in another continent. There's nothing wrong with this as long as it serves people and their needs.

Regarding identity:

Identity, arguably has had a notable destructive function on people's lives throughout the history. In this regard I would suggest searching about what some Indian yogis (e.g., Osho and Sadhguru) have said about identity. Identity is the source of separation between people. It never results in global integration and sustainability. It always defines us vs them. What today's world needs is unity.

Hi, would be helpful if you highlight the conflicts with a dot or something similar and add the number which you have come up with in order to be able to compare. Also, sometimes more than two lines cross at almost the same spot. E.g. at intersection IM the line from A.H.Road to Rupkotha Road intersects the straight line from Court Road to A.H.Road at the same spot as the line from Rupkotha Road to Aurangzeb Road. For your purposes, do you want to count that as one conflict or two seperated conflicts? Maybe you have access to a program that helps you identify conflicts?

thank you so much, Agnieszka!

For those interested in an update on China (the mentioned article is dating back from 2004), see the report published by Merics in 2017: http://www.merics.org/index.php/en/papers-on-china/chinas-emergence-global-security-actor-1

Concerning the question on international politics, it is an endless discussion...

You still have geopoliticians and analysts basing their insight on the sole ground of geographical and/or historical background (1st wave of geopoliticians, the classical ones), looking at states only within the lens of hegemon and counter-hegemons creating alternatives or countering the hegemon while the end objective remains to replace the current hegemon. In order to reach their goals, states take either the form of a sea power (Mahan) or land power (Mackinder)... and the frequent conception that borders are only a temporary halt (typically an idea taken from Haushofer).

On top of that, we have the current international order developed by the US for 50 years and currently challenged (see the articles of Anne-Cécile Robert, L’ordre international piétiné par ses garants, in Le Monde diplomatique of Feb 2018 or the article Present at the Erosion - International Order on the Brink published in the Munich Security Report of 2018). Nevertheless, it doesn't look like a nasty business and Joshua Stowell has for example well described that it is not because the system is challenged that we would expect a seism (see https://globalsecurityreview.com/west-really-retreat-probably-not/).

For the moment, media attention is clearly focused on the Asian tiger, DPRK or a new Cold War... The world is clearly summarised as a zero-sum game (President Trump's apparent view)...

But it is clearly to easy, international relations are nowadays deeply influenced by globalisation, private companies can have a deep impact even on an hegemon (e.g. delocalising jobs)... whithout taking into account transnational organised crime, climate change, health security or migrations... without forgetting the simple access to potable water.

To answer the question what can we do as scholars and researchers to change this seemingly "nasty and dangerous business"?, my humble comment would be:

- explain to our elites the various trends at stake,

- provide them with foresight, because they are clearly centered on short-term objectives (they nowadays want actionable information, beeing under constant pressure so "we need to show we are doing sthg") and we clearly need to look beyond in order to tackle emerging threats and/or challenges...

- if given the opportunity, explain to the media & our population international politics is much more than a zero-sum game (if it was the case, then why have we seen the creation of the EEC, even if the European Union as a project is nowadays clearly challenged?),

Thanks, Ismael,

I will contact her.

Without doubt , communities must be made responsible for managing common lands converted into forests or grasslands or silvi - pastures . However continous motivation and capacity building of communities are requred before excuting any such programme. I have seen that in Bikaner district of Rajasthan , India where a huge moving sand dune was on the verge of engulfing whole village . Local folk were sensitized effectively to go for vegetative sand dunecstabilization programme and villagers did all the required activities for sand sune stabilizaton themselves . Today that dune is well stabilized , trees and grasses are flurishing like any thing , villagers have set definite rules to protect the vegetation of the said dune. Only grasses are taken by villagers though cut & carry System under a controlled regime .Now said village is completely safe since last 20 years .

thanks I have this one -and as you se they also basically rely on open source

but an excellent article

Anna Funder's book Stasiland is full of examples of the stress caused by living in a surveillance society.  Another good source is The Stasi: Myth & Reality by Mike Dennis

Camilo,

There is quite a lot of work in the critical peacebuilding literature that looks at the importance of (and the challenge in achieving) local ownership in peace and development projects.  My recent article comparing two peacebuilding projects in the Ecuador-Colombia border region, funded by the same international donor but with very different approaches to local ownership, might be helpful for you:

For more on the local contexts in which aid is received, and the ways that social, political, and economic dynamics interact to produce more or less peace, you might check out a series of articles published recently by Cecile Mouly, Annette Idler, and Belen Garrido in the Colombian border region, and a book by Eduardo Moncada on the relationship between private businesses, local politics, and violence in Colombian cities: http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=23748

Good luck!

Jeff

Jonathan, that is the dataset I have been looking for! I thought it had been discontinued, nice to see this is not the case. Thank you so very much for showing it to me! All that time it was hiding in plain sight..

Concerning the data, I worked myself around it by coding the Uppsala data in a way it suits my needs. The advantage is that inter-state conflict is also included, so I probably won't change everything now. But it is still great to see that PITF still exists, and I will certainly use it in the future.

Have a great day!

Hi Yousif 

This is an interesting and a tough question to answer at the same time. Among the few things you should probably consider for your dissertation is how external political considerations will make the partition of the country along Ethnic and Sectarian lines difficult.

For example : Turkey's fight with the Kurdish armed group makes it highly opposed to demands of autonomy for Kurds in Iraq due to fears that Turkish Kurds may use this as a precedent to demand more autonomy. This is seen in the military strikes that it conducted in Syria to push back the gains of the Kurdish YPG against ISIS as it believes that the the YPG are connected to the PKK. 

Similarly Iran and Saudi Arabia will probably weigh in for the Sunni- Shia split and thus should be considered strongly while working on your dissertation. If you want sources: Please go through

1. "Reputation and Civil War: Why Separatist Conflicts Are So Violent" a Book by Barbara F. Walter . i myself have not gone through this but I understand it should have some good theoretical discussions to get an idea of the theory part.

2. Also look at works by Michael Knights who has written extensively for Al Jazeera. 

3. Please check for works on Post Conflict restructuring and violence books that I havent explored yet.  Feel free to message me . This sounds like a fine dissertation and I would like to follow on your work. 

I believe the meddling in others Sovereign State affairs is the cause for all security threats all over the world. If Algeria does not stick its nose in Mali's internal affairs, it will have nothing to worry about .  

Savvas that's a great help and thank you.  The point about hard power is well made!

The PSC theory can also be verified in the Colombian armed conflict. The reason may be due to multiple circumstances that make it difficult the situation between the different opposing parts. We would have to add also the analysis of the conflict from the gender mainstreaming perspective.

thank you for your insights...sorry i was a bit away

Many researchers decided to examine the relationship between social media and jihadist movements such as Gilles Kepel, Olivier Roy

For me, the strategy of jihadist movements is divided into several parts.

The first trump used by jihadist propaganda is a critique of Western civilization. It is a civilization that denied religion, based on frivolous pleasures and widespread debauchery, where men and women interact without any decency. Secondly, I think you can use the concept of "bare life", developed by the Italian scientist Giorgio Agamben. In short, 2000 Palestinians were killed in silence in the Gaza Strip; the West does nothing to stop it. However, when four Westerners are murdered by jihadists, major Western countries send forces. This shows a double standard regarding human lives.

Third, the Syrian conflict plays a vital role. ISIS highlighted the inaction of Western governments in 2013, when Bashar Assad committed genuinely a massacre in his own country. This was an undeniable engine of jihadist propaganda on social networks saying, basically: "What do you expect from the West ? they are slaughtering our brothers, sisters and thousands of children. Bashar el-Assad is their puppet..How can you continue to live among these monsters? ".

By using literally unbearable videos and photos of the conflict, their expectation is to trigger a reaction from observers. The main message of such propaganda is in fact: "Only merciless traitors may continue to live among these monsters You must act, either by joining us, or punish them for what they did."

My last but not least: the conspiracy. The West is against ISIS because the Caliphate is the only pure and just entity. The Caliphate is the only country struggling against sin, through the teachings of Islam and the Holy Quran. The West, corrupt to the bone, can not accept such a holy resurrection that it destroyed 90 years ago i.e. in 1924. In other words, this will certainly significantly undermine its interests. The West wants to continue to plunder the Muslim countries, but the Caliphate is the only country that can thwart its plan. In addition, the caliphate has the strength to provide defense and dignity of Muslims worldwide. This is why all Muslims should swear allegiance to the caliph, the only real authority Sunni Muslims. The caliphate should also annihilate those "idolatrous Shia dogs " because they are worse than "the Crusaders". They claim to be Muslims while they are kufr -misbelievers. They delude the message of the Prophet and they only deserve death. If you are a true Muslim, you have to join us to do so.

Finally, the main strategy of the jihadist groups through the social networks is to create a genuine partition between US and THEM.

Here are some things I found that may be beneficial:

http://www.economist.com/node/7218678          Best of luck! =)

I will send you my article due to be published in the special issue of the Journal of Human rights next month. It raises the same issues about R2P

Good question. There are so many players involved with Northern Gateway, so when I tried to model them all it just got unwieldy and didn't really end up with anything useful. As I write up my decision maker rationale now I'm finding that I'm spending most of effort explaining why I'm leaving them out of the model, since it's supposed to be focused on DMs that actually have a move to make, and that's constantly changing. 

The new interface is actually pretty darn good. Let me know if you want to connect with the folks that developed it. Here's two articles that might be of interest. 

Thanks again!! You've been very helpful! 

- Mark 

Kinsara, R. a., Kilgour, D. M., & Hipel, K. W. (2015). Inverse Approach to the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems, IEEE Transactions on, 45(5 May 2015), 734–742.

Systems methodologies to model third-party intervention in international conflicts are developed within the frame- work of the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR). An inverse GMCR is introduced to utilize the GMCR as a negoti- ation tool by altering the procedure of the original framework. The methodologies presented give a better understanding of how decision makers (DMs) can be motivated to undertake certain actions within the conflict. Moreover, the inverse GMCR tackles the problem of specifying which preferences for DMs lead to a particular resolution, thereby making it easier for a mediator or other third party to influence the course of the conflict. The methodologies are applied to a real-world dispute, a complex water conflict in the Middle East.

Kinsara, R. a., Hipel, K. W., & Kilgour, D. M. (2013). Inverse Approach in Third Party Intervention. 2013 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 2433–2436.

A historical water conflict along the Euphrates River in the Middle East is investigated and analyzed using the inverse approach to the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR). The essence of this methodology is to inform the mediators of the possible approaches to reach a more desired resolution. The goal is to allow mediators to focus their efforts on influencing the involved parties efficiently in order to achieve an improved resolution. Index Terms—Third Party, Conflict Resolution, Graph Model, Mediation, Inverse Approach.

19 maggio 2015

L'odierna cultura politica è totalmente da rifondare e bisogna adottare un punto di vista alla Machiavelli e alla Marx che faccia piazza pulita della ideologia democratica. Lo scopo di quest'opera di integrale tabula rasa è l'implementazione di politiche che autenticamente e concretamente allarghino gli spazi di libertà sia per gli individui che per i gruppi in cui questi si associano. Per chi sia interessato a queste tematiche, che sono il nucleo della domanda "Does governance, as observed, have a shape, a trajectory?", invito ad impostare sul Web una ricerca avente come termine la locuzione 'Repubblicanesimo Geopolitico'. Massimo Morigi

More important is the protection of common and innocent people who have nothing to do with the conflict. When peoples' protection is not ensured protection of cultural property is extremely difficult. More than armed conflicts, industrial development, pollution, population pressures of a country put the cultural treasures at high risk.

This is an interesting but rather dry topic. Dry in the sense that very little documented information is available. I worked for the Nigerian Railways when the war broke out. I was at a remote station that was used primarily for traffic operations (crossing trains) on the single line block system. The only link between the station and the world outside was the railway block telegraph system.The phone was an open line system, connecting all stations from Lagos up to Minna at the Northern end of the Western District sector.  Through this phone the traffic controller in Lagos gathered information about the position of any train on the network. When the war broke out, it was the means by which Ibo railway officials living in the North of Nigeria informed themselves of developments in the civil unrest.

I cannot give exact dates here. But when the first round of kiilings of Ibos started in 1966 in Northern Nigeria, the railway stations served as a haven for fleeing Ibo natives. They took the first available train (passenger or goods) going south to Lagos from where they found their way to the East. An Ibo staff at my station,asked m e to check for the position of any train. He returned to his quarters to prepare his wife and new-born  baby to leave. He came back out with just a package, probably food for the baby. The train stopped, they boarded, and were gone.  I remained because, although an Easterner, only Ibos were originally the target.  About the next evening, I received a call on the block telegraph from a staff at a station close to Minna. He reported a mob attack on a waiting room full of passengers waiting for train to flee, but were killed indiscriminately. Other Easterners non Ibos began to leave, using the railway because it seemed the safest means. However, a mob attack on on a passengers train at a station was a cause for concern. There was the report of a bold train driver who decided to break the rules to save his passengers fleeing southward. The train was booked to stop at a station (Zungeru, I believe). The driver had been hinted that a mob awaited his Ibo passengers if he stopped at the stain. The driver, reportedly drove through the station without stopping, and so could take his passengers through, alive. 

Reports of attacks on stations and trains compelled me to leave my station on a goods train. It became clear that strategic locations on the railway line were now in some way check-points. For example, every train coming from the North must cross the bridge over the River Niger on its way south. Every train was stopped on this bridge for military checks. So was mine. The soldiers searched everyone and every coach before it was allowed to leave the bridge. I arrived in Lagos and was assigned to Ibadan where I worked until the war was over. in 1971.

As regards use of the railway for movements of soldiers or for the war effort, it is very unlikely that the railway could serve such a purpose efficiently. I have three works on the civil war. (1) Thirteen Years of Military Rule 1966-1979 by James O. Ojiako mentions plans to revolutionize transport and communication only in the famous 30 billion Naira budget. (2) Why We Struck by Adewale Ademoyega (1981) offers some insight into the movement of troops by military vehicles from he barracks. (3) The Giant of the Cemetery by Jimmy Essien (1985) virtually weeps over the deplorable state of public transportation as "trains strain" along at snail speed. Such transport system could hardly serve reliable military purposes. Soldiers travelled by train or by road, etc, but I do not know of any real effort to use the railway for such a purpose. I would suggest that you find out if the railway served the purpose of transporting heavy military equipment from North to South.  I do not think that it would be difficult to find out by inquiring at the goods sheds at depot stations such as Apapa, Iddo, Ebute-Meta, Ibadan, Kaduna and Kano. 

Good luck with your work.

I would like to add to Roos' answer. Your question is indeed ambiguous.

At an individual level, children recruited to armed groups can be categorized in many ways, including: abduction vs. voluntary recruitment, age, gender, or in terms of other individual characteristics. Individual data on children actively participating in an armed group will no doubt be difficult to obtain. Such data for the most part is country specific and comes from surveys of demobilized individuals.

The alternative is to consider the armed group as the unit of analysis, whereby the mode of recruitment or the focus of recruitment activity could be categorized.

What is most important is that you have a theoretical reason for considering the categorical distinction.

Feminist critical security scholarship in international relations might be a productive place to start.  You might try reading some of the work by Jane Parpart, Megan MacKenzie, and others, which looks at both the effect of armed conflict on women, and the role of women in armed conflict (and other aspects of gender analysis of conflict) in Africa. 

A theory of radical disagreement is contrasted with an example. In the theory radical disagreement is described as a juxtaposition of equivalent subjective narratives that do not ‘reflect truth’ but merely serve as ‘motivational tools’ for group survival. In the example, it can be seen that neither speaker is saying that. The Palestinian claim (A) is not about a subjective narrative or motivational tool, but about a lived reality endured for 60 years. And the Israeli claim (B) is not about a juxtaposition of equivalent accounts, but a fierce refutation of faults and misrepresentations in what the other says. This mismatch between third party theory and participant example explains a great deal about why third party interventions based on those theoretical assumptions fail.

I think the theory of functionalism is very much alive for example in the education system, where the functions of an institution intended to give a non-confrontational vision. That is, functionalism theory predicts that each is in the rightful place, in this way the conflict is impossible.

If you really want to do a conflict analysis should review the sociology of conflict. I agree with the previous speaker.

My advice would be to read the reference bibliography listed in the Harvard Negotiation Program. I found it extremely useful as guidelines and techniques. Then you can improve them with your own personal experience and practice.

I have modeled a two party behaviour with the different text books but very especially with "Negotiation", by Richard Luecke (Harvard Business Essentials)

the idea of epistemic authority in the arena of psychology, sociology and political science was well developed and discussed by Arie Kruglanski, Daniel Bar-Tal and I dealt with this concept elaborating on it with regard to civil-military relations in the era of asymmetric conflicts.

Sometimes it is good and sometimes it is good depending on the situations and circumstances around the group

I agree that whenever talking about terrorism it is key to define what you are referring to. Most serious definitions include four cornerstones in their definition: a) presence of a political/religious/societal/etc. motivation (i.e., a greater good worth fighting for). b) use or threats of violence. c) sub-national actors (i.e., states and theri representatives cannot engage in terror acts). d) spreading of fear beyond the immediate target. what distinguishes terrorism from crime is that the attack as such is just a means to achiev the greater goal.

Moreover, terrorism is not "definitely an international conflict". In fact about 8 out of 10 terror attack are purely domestic, i.e., the perpetrator, the victim and the place of the attack all share the same nationality.

Regarding determinants of terrorism: political attributes - in particular foreign policy broadly defined - have been documented to be particularly important drivers of terrorism.

Greetings Robin and apologies for such a delayed answer! Thank you for your suggestions. I will follow up and get back to you here. Best wishes for the holliday season and for 2014. Cheers!

1) Identify the criteria of credibility that the other part uses. Try to meet a few and show to the other party that you are a credible partner.

2) Redefine reality and create a problem to the other party ... People do not trade for nothing.

3) Identify a context where you are stronger than the other side and bring these forces into the discussion as a potential contribution of your future partnership.

4) Evaluate the five strategies proposed by Tomas & Killman

(Thomas, KW (1992) Conflict and conflict management:.. Reflections and update Journal of Organizational Behavior, 13 (3), 265-274) to better anticipate what is the best strategy.

Hi Laura,

This is an area that can create a lot of angst for clinicians in understanding what the family and patient require in providing support, education and promoting well-being of the patient, but also recognizing what stage of grief and loss cycle the family may be experiencing. The ability to roll with resistance and change is an important analogy as mental and general healthcare clinicians, we want to provide patient and family centered care while trying to maintain a family systems perspective. Often as we know this takes a multidisciplinary and consistent approach to assist the family and patient in understanding the path to recovery and the available treatment and therapy options.

I hope these articles may be of some help:

What evidence and guidelines exists on how best to resolve conflict through education and patient/family collaboration in plan of care for recovery?

Clinical practice guidelines for support of the family in the patient-centered intensive care unit: American College of Critical Care Medicine Task Force 2004–2005

Collaborative Communication in Pediatric Palliative Care: A Foundation for Problem-Solving and Decision-Making. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2151773/

Implementing Team Approaches in Primary and Tertiary Care Settings: Applications from the Rehabilitation Context.

Given et al (2001). Family Support in Advanced Cancer http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.3322/canjclin.51.4.213/pdf

Consumer-oriented interventions for evidence-based

prescribing and medicines use: an overview of systematic

reviews (Review)

Sorry about the long entry, but hope this is some help.

James

There is a difference between Sunni and Shi'a Islam that is almost hermetic to Westerners. The Economist did a fairly decent job with this topic: http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/05/economist-explains-19 recently. The big sticking points are important in a cultural sense, but in a conflict analysis, you can overlook the numbers: 1.6 billion or so Muslims of which 80% are Sunni....