Questions related to Climate Dynamics
I came across a lot of peer-reviewed journal articles and most of the authors have concluded there is a climate change phenomena happening by applying Mann-Kendall Trend test on Hydro-Metrological variables (rainfall, temperature). It has to noted that Mann-Kendall is a statistical technique which on applied to dataset (including time series) shows whether there is a monotonic increasing or decreasing trend & whether that trend so arrived is statistically significant or not ?
My question is that how we can conclude the trend detected is due to climate change only without citing any physical process/phenomena (like Teleconnections) drives this change ?, that too based on Statistical test (Mann-Kendall) at a particular Level of significance (LOS).
The LOS applied is also statistically subjective and the value can vary from person to person?
What kind of scientific research dominate in the field of Global warming?
Please, provide your suggestions for a question, problem or research thesis in the issues: Global warming.
I invite you to the discussion
If we take the Mediterranean, its not one distinct climate it varies greatly from east to west and north to south. The north is more temperate-like with rainfall more dispersed throughout the year while the south drier with more heavy rainy spells. This surely would have an impact on the way green roofs perform .
Global warming affects many processes in biological ecosystems.
Different species of flora and fauna change their habitats and geographical areas according to climate change and specific geographical environments.
Areas of occurrence of specific species, for example insects in terrestrial areas and fish and arthropods in the seas and oceans, change.
For example bird habitats change, so migrations of some bird species may also be subject to modification. In the situation when forest areas dry out and turn into steppes and deserts, changes in natural habitats and areas of occurrence of species change and concern simultaneously many species of flora and fauna.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:
What changes in natural ecosystems are caused by the ongoing global warming process?
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Many observations and calculations of the atmospheric absorption can be found, but it would appear very few studies on climate had explicitly applied the basic radiative transfer equation in different forms, including scattering and atmospheric radiation. If you know any relevent references or your own papers to share, that would be wonderful.
In connection with the warming of the Earth's climate, progressive global warming, some areas located in the sub-tropical zone in the future will not be fit for existence, and the migration processes of the population will be intensified.
Do you agree with my opinion?
Although determining the origin of sand storms on the Earth as well as possible, But it is difficult for dust storms. Because this storm covers a large surface area and the specific days, and also dust storms do not always originate from sand dunes.
According to a theoretical Greenhouse Gas Effect of 0 with 0ppm CO-equivalents the global temperature were 0°F or -18°C.
Due to the fact, all natural systems tend to show a maximum threshold value instead of infinite growth I wonder if there is a value of CO-equivalents that causes the maximum Greenhouse Gas Effect related to the current Energy output of the sun.
If there is an investigation or estimation on this value, how high is it and how high is the resulting rise in temperature?
Assuming a theoretical scenario with:
Energy Output of Sun = constant
Circulation System of Earth = constant
time = infinite
CO-equivalents = infinite
Decades of rising emissions continued to do what scientists have long warned they would: make the world hotter.
Indeed, the 2010s mark the decade when the impacts from climate change became unmistakable, at least for any objective-minded observer.
Carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, which makes up about 90% of total emissions from human activities, was relatively flat from 2013 through 2016.
However, Fossil-fuel emissions rose an estimated 0.6% to a record 37 billion metric tons in 2019, capping three straight years of growth.
Sea-level rise is accelerating!!
The planet got a lot hotter this decade!!
Most countries have done very little so far to displace the power plants, cars, factories, and buildings polluting the atmosphere with more emissions each year.
In your view, is the world doing enough on climate change?
Currently (end of January, beginning of February 2019) in Australia the heat of the centuries has been recorded reaching in some places to almost 50 ° C, and in the USA, in some places now winter has appeared with frosts reaching around minus 50 degrees C.
In recent years, various weather anomalies have appeared more and more.
The recorded increase in weather anomalies and climatic cataclysms may be a derivative of the progressing greenhouse effect, ie the warming of the Earth's climate. This is also confirmed by the numerous climatic cataclysms and weather anomalies that also occurred in the last year of 2018 appear in numerous places on the Earth. In the autumn of 2018, fires of huge forest areas appeared in some areas of the Earth, such as in Scandinavia, California in the USA, Australia, the Iberian Peninsula, Africa, etc. In addition, weather anomalies, e.g. snow and floods in October and November 2018 occurred in the south of Europe. In addition, numerous tornadoes in 2018 in many places on Earth and so on.
Perhaps these problems will get worse. It is necessary to improve security systems and anti-crisis services, improve the prediction of these anomalies and climatic cataclysms so that people can, have managed to get shelter or cope with an imminent cataclysm. One of the technologies that can help in more precise forecasting of these cataclysms is the processing of large collections of historical and current information on this subject in the cloud computing technology in Big Data database systems.
In view of the above, in connection with the increasingly frequent cataclysms and climatic anomalies, perhaps in the future we will be forced to change our assessment of particular seasons, and for example favorite in some climatic zones, summer will no longer be universally recognized as a positive season, if at this time will often appear increasingly higher temperatures, droughts, fires, tornadoes, etc.
In connection with the above, I would like to ask you:
Are the current weather anomalies the effect of global warming?
I'm trying to calculate rainfall anomaly from monthly rainfall measurements taken between 1997 and 2017 at a single location in Panama (subjected to highly seasonal rainfall as well as El Niño-derived fluctuations in rainfall). My data is one measurement per month per year; 20 values for January (1997-2017), 20 for February, and so on. I have attached a screen shot of the first few rows of data if further clarification is needed.
I am aware of the common anomaly technique of subtracting the long term mean from the actual value and dividing by the standard deviation [(x-xbar)/stdev], but as I understand it this should only be used on normally distributed data.
My issue is that while SOME of my months have normally distributed (gaussian) rainfall over the sampling period, others do not - some are uniformly distributed, some are lognormal. I'm not clear on whether I can use the same anomaly calculation for these different distributions, or if it's appropriate to transform the data. It seems inappropriate to use different anomaly calculations on different months, since I want to eventually compare anomalies from different months together.
I am new to this type of data so I am feeling a bit out of my depth. Any advice would be appreciated - thank you!
The climate is changing for sure. However, the question is how much CO2 contributing to the phenomenon. Do we know enough about other possible drivers? Is there any research which focused on all possible drivers of climate change and their proportion of contribution?
Looking for your kind suggestions and discussions
Isn't temperature fall and down related to geological and astronomical dynamics rather than anthropogenic!
When polar jet stream has southward shift mandering happens, it leads to polar vortex.
It is also true that the magnitude of polar vortex depends on the temperature difference between poles and mid-latitudes.
Moreover, the southward shift of jet stream is related to the southward shift of ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone)
Then, Why polar vortex is not a regular phenomenon?
The report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows that greenhouse gas levels on the globe are the highest in 800,000 years. Further emission, which arises according to the authors of the report mainly due to the combustion of fossil fuels, will lead to climate changes, which will be the greater, the more intensive will be the release of gases into the atmosphere. The report is a synthesis of earlier findings of the IPCC.
The conducted prognostic analyzes show that if the industrial development proceeds in the same way as before, i.e. without the implementation of eco-innovations, without reducing greenhouse gas emissions, etc. there is a risk that by 2050 the average temperature on the Earth's surface may increase by another one degrees ° C. It would have been an increase in the average temperature on the surface of the Earth from the end of the first industrial revolution, from the beginning of the 20th century by two degrees ° C. Then the pace of climate change will increase so much that the global warming process can escape any control and then the person will not be able to stop or significantly slow down this process. In such a dark scenario, the average temperature on the surface of the Earth until the end of the twenty-first century may increase by as much as four degrees ° C. Then it will be several times the increase of any negative external effects of climate change on the current state. Slak of emerging climatic cataclysms, including tornadoes, droughts, volcanic eruptions, melting of glaciers in chains of mountain peaks and in the arctic circle region at the Arctic will significantly accelerate. The melting of eternal decay in the Arctic region will release further millions of tons of methane and the greenhouse effect will accelerate even further and in the XXII century an increase in the average temperature on the Earth's surface can achieve a geometric pace. Then it will be a disaster not only for human civilization but also for a large part of life forms on Earth. Pradoxically, man as a rational, intelligent being who, evolutionarily gained an advantage over all other forms of life on Earth and subordinated the whole planet to itself, may lead to self-destruction. Or maybe it is not too late to implement a new eco-friendly economy to at least try to stop greenhouse gas emissions and reverse unfavorable global warming processes? It is therefore necessary to promote and implement the principles of sustainable development within the framework of the new green economy.
Please reply. I invite you to the discussion
Chart. Global Warming. CO2 emissions of greenhouse gases, a forecast of the increase in the average temperature on Earth. Source: NOAA, NASA.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, the average temperature on the Earth has increased by 1 ° C
Therefore, the greenhouse effect of the Earth has already begun.
Greenhouse gas emissions have increased in recent decades.
As a result, the global warming process accelerates.
The climate is warming, and therefore more and more climatic cataclysms are emerging.
Droughts and declining areas of agricultural crops are a serious threat.
Will these adverse climate changes be deepened?
In connection with the above, it is particularly important to answer the question: How many degrees ° C the will increase the average temperature on the Earth by the end of the 21st century?
Please reply. I invite you to the discussion
I would like to ask that Please guide me by sharing your knowledge and expert opinion "Which is the good tool for Extreme Climate Indices Analysis".
We would like to invite you to contribute with your original research articles, reviews, and technical notes to the Special Issue "Climate prediction of extreme events" in the journal Geosciences.
More information can be found at:
Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 August 2019
We are looking forward to your valuable contribution,
Dr. Marco Turco
Dr. Sonia Jerez
Can any one direct me on a trusted website about data of station based precipitation archive (monthly) between 1950-2010?
especially in Africa
Would the gradual melting of Earth's glaciers, due to the greenhouse effect, cause a further increase of the SLR?
If not, what happen to that water?
How ocean currents contribute to the phenomenon?
link photos: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
I offer my thanks in advance to all those who will answer for the attention.
I am actually thinking about different variables linked to each others. When I assume temperature will increase hence the convection so the winds can be slower than the present. But at the same time the height of planetary boundary layer might increase from its normal value, which can compensate the whole changes and brings the atmosphere in normal condition. By the way it is not so easy to think as it involves important role of time and space. Discussion on it is valuable.
What is the role of the predictability of the MOC on the N. European Climate
How much of the MOC predictability is atmosphere led ( see Roberts 2013)
How much is due to re-emergence of the atmospheric forced SST anomalies the following year ?
I would like to observe the mesoscopic characteristics of earth and rock contact interface in the earth-rock aggregate during the direct shear test. Is there any possibility?
Thank you all
I'd like to know how are defined on a surface map the position of fronts (cold and warm) that we find on meteorological surface pressure maps (see link). I want to plot those fronts at a specific time during a cyclone (low pressure), see the attached pdf file upper panel.
Is there a specific criterion to define those front positions?
I'm using ECMWF ERA-20C reanalysis data so I have access to many parameters. I've tried dew point temperature gradient (norm) to find the brutal change in temperature and moisture associated with warm front without great success. Maybe a specific isoline of dew point temperature? I'm using 1 degree gridded data, maybe my resolution is too coarse?
Thanks in advance,
I am preparing a manuscrit on farmer's perceptions about climate variability in Côte d'Ivoire and I need climate data in order to compare the perceptions to climate data!
I have netcdf-files with daily precipitation values ("rr"), one file for every single day which means there would be 30-31 files for every month. I want to get site specific information about monthly precipitation, which mean I need to extract values at a specific latitude and longitude from every file (see attchment for information about data). Do someone have any suggestions on how to do this in an efficient way, so I don´t need to open one and one file?
I am trying to quantify the performance of a decadal climate forecast compared to observations for a number of variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, geopotential hight, and others).is there any good paper discussing completely around applicable metrics or measures on decadal scale?
It is believed that clays can control the formation of red tides. Therefore, construction of dams that can reduce the discharge of clays into the marine bodies, may be considered as one of the reasons for the fomation of red tides. Does dust fall control the formation of red tides? In the recent years, due to the lower precipitations, many marshes in middle east region are fully or partially dried. These marshes are now the main source of atmospheric dusts in the region. Sometimes the concentration of such dust particles can reach to as high as 3000 mg/m3.
I am doing seasonal simulation of monsoon (~5 months) with climate model. As per my knowledge spin up time of a model is very important for the reliability of the model output for further study. I have found that there is very little literature regarding the spin up time for seasonal scale simulation. Everybody taken some amount of time (10days - 1 month) model simulation as spin up and excluded that from their analysis without proper justification or figures regarding that. Some literature can be found for long term simulation but I didn't found no literature for seasonal scale simulation. How to see/figure out that? I want to justify what is the amount of time I need to take as spin up and why? Any kind of clue in this regard will be highly appreciated.
The soil moisture changes are in West Jilin Province, China.
I calculate the mean soil moisture time series from the GLDAS four models(CLM, Mosaic, Noah and VIC). The West Jilin Province locates 43N-46N, 122E-126E. Thanks for your attention.
This case also appear in Moiwo's paper.
3 out of 4 extinction events were caused by a build-up of methane hydrates in the atmosphere. We are seeing an increase of methane with the melting of permafrost. With the continued increase of warming and the admission by climate scientists that the warming event is accelerating this should be a huge concern.
For background information, see previous question from Susan Salafsky "What was the global extent of drought conditions during 2001-2003 and how did it affect the biota?"
there is a line of maximum wind speed with 115 degree measured from direction of tropical cyclone motion
I asked a previous question as to whether dense ash aggregates (or "acc-laps") have ever been made in any wind tunnel lab thus far in their fully formed sub-spherical or ellipsoïdal shape ?
The answer has been: "not yet", even though this would allow to more closely simulate mixed phase aggregation under more realistic in situ ashcloud conditions.
I am wondering if any accretionary lapilli greater than about 10mm across or so have ever been collected immediately upon reaching the ground and studied immediately, or preserved in a cold box (to prevent them from any melting) and studied in the lab (eg. on a cryogenic SEM stage, or to measure their in situ temperature, and recover inner fluids from the intergranular space....) ?
The reason is that there is the hypothesis that they form like hailstones by riming, once they grow above a size characteristic of the drop break-up limit (5-6mm across). If this "volcanogenic hailstone" hypothesis is correct, then my expectation is that a proportion of accretionary lapilli larger than about 6mm diameter should still be frozen upon reaching the ground (especially if above-ground températures are close to 0°C; if not partial melting takes place), so that somewhat larger ones (say 10mm diameter ones) may still be frozen (despite partial melting) and still contain inner ice upon landing on the ground.
Has anyone checked for this ?
Assuming for a moment that larger sub-concentric acclaps can be sampled immediately, preserved and analysed for oxygen isotopes of any trapped ice water, then this could provide valuable data as to the temperature environments through which the acc-laps have been recycled again and again in the volcanic cloud before ultimately falling out.
Analogous oxygen isotope ratio studies of the subconcentric layers of hailstones from severe thunderstorms have provided such information in that case.
I am looking forward to hearing back.
Best wishes and kind regards,
I am interested in the theories and evidence linking the AMO to Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, solar forcing and possibly other causes in explaining this phenomenon. Is there literature reviewing these mechanisms? Do you have links to relevant net sources.
how to access their data or to get Atmospheric wind data from ground to altitudes of 150 km or more?
Generally atmospheric data including pressure,humidity, temp,wind velocity w.r.t altitude has been provided by radiosonde upto 35 km height. i want to access this data from 35 km onwards. so, how can i get it?
I am looking for information on advanced courses in English that would be open for graduate or post-graduate level foreign students. This would be interesting for students specializing on climate reconstruction, past climate dynamics, current issues of climatology, and so on. Is there any web-sites listing such activities?
Dear Researchers I am doing a study regarding effect of climate change on a very small catchment. I need future climate data for period 2050-2060s. I have few questions I will be thankful if you share your experience and give suggestions:
1: How many Climate models exist in CMIP5? What are RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 ?How many models exist in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5?
2. I have read there are 40 models for RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 am i right? Among RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 if i want to select some suitable models for my catchment what will be the procedure?
3. Dose spatial resolution mater for small catchment having watershed 200km square?
I am using a Species Distribution model and want to use Climate gridded data for different scenarios from downloaded Climond. How can I extract the data only for my country of interest? Any suggestions please
In my study I am trying to verify whether there have been climate refugia for a species. Unfortunately, publicly available databases only have data for the Last Glacial Maximum (circa 21kya), the Holocene (circa 6kya) present and future. Considering that the Younger Dryas were a period of forest (vegetation) contraction and this could influence the distribution of my targeted species, I think it would be important to include it in my study. Unfortunately, I can't find climate variables for this period. Can anyone provide any suggestion?
Thanks in advance!
Different modelling centres have given the historical runs for their GCMs, in this respect I am looking for some studies which seems to Identify the models able to simulate the Indian Summer Monsoon and its features in a more comprehensive and realistic manner.
Any update will be appreciated.
Thanks in anticipation.
I recently had a look at the Mauna Loa dataset.
They are archived and distributed by the NOAA Administration of the US. An intruiging dataset indeed.
I detrended the full monthly dataset (april 1954 till now) and subsequently calculated the yearly rate of change (See figure enclosed). According to me the data suggest that - at least for the Mauna Loa dataset - the atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio has entered a runaway mode (as they say in systems analysis). This would suggest a strong feed-foward mechanism in the processes determining the rate of increase of Mauna Loa CO2 mixing ratio! Nw my questions.
1. Do you agree with my findings (see graph added here as well)?
2. Have other scientists found something comparable to what I find in the Mauna Loa data?
Eagerly waiting (also for the non-believers in climate change) to put your teeth in my hypothesis shortly outlined here and hack it to pieces.
Thanks for looking into the data and findings.
I am aware of LAI as one of the most important factors in creating shades and providing cooling. But what else can be investigated?
I am interested in comparing the learning process and adaptive cycle in the context of cities working together in transnational city networks for climate action. Lee and van de Meene (2012) conceptualized the learning process into three phases (information gathering, adoption, policy change) in their network analysis study. I would like to look further into urban policy change and whether TCNs are a necessary condition to catalyze cities building resilience against sea-level rise. I think a better understanding of the phases of the adaptive cycle would be useful. I would appreciate any assistance.
I am working on a project to use WRF-ARW as a regional climate model and project potential impact of climate change for future periods. But the WRF model doesn't directly ingest the Climate Model out put dat (GCM) from CMIP5 available in ESGF portal directly. So I need some mechanism so as to make this GCM outputs able to use in WPS the WRF prepossessing system before I run WRF
I only have field measured values of solar radiation, air temp, relative humidity, dew point, air pressure, wind speed and direction. I do not have any information on ratio of clear/cloudy time and I'm having a difficult time arriving at the necessary emissivity values needed to calculate incoming longwave rad.
Thank you for any help.
Maureen Raymo hypothesized that the Himalayas radically changed climate by affecting wind patterns by their uplift. I want to know how you can radically change climate by removing a miles-high ice sheet. Hypothetically what would happen to climate if the Greenland Ice Sheet were removed? How did the rapid removal of the Laurentide ice sheet affect wind patterns and climate for eastern North America in the recent past? Has anyone done any modeling of this? Thanks, Joanne
I know there are no any rules. But I just want to know the community idea about how many will suffice for a study.
Is it possible to relate lagoon water spread area with climate variables such as precipitation and temperature?
When I use ENVI-met v3.1 to compare between deep canyon H/W=5 and Shallow canyon H/W=1, I observed that the air temperature at daylight is similar with literature review about deep canyon has low temperature from shallow canyon as shown in attached file, because the effect of wall height which decrease of effect from direct short radiation. At night the air temperature in deep canyon is lower than shallow canyon, literature review which has studied street canyon ratio proved that air temperature in deep canyon in night is higher than shallow canyon, because SVF is low and low air velocity in deep canyon to release heat from walls.
The harmattan in west Africa has not been as strong as it is now, and the reports all over Europe, America and some part of Asia, Africa e.t.c have also recorded increased snow, hail storms, flooding and in some cases poor visibility. What is the scientific link of these events to climate change. Proof may be needed
There are several climate indices that can be used to show the state and the changes in local climate systems but which index is better and can show the effects of long term land-use change on local climate dynamics.
I am studying semivarigram for climatic data, and I would like to have a reference in order to analyse the available models and be able to choose the best one for my data.
We are studying the impact of water scarcity due to climate change and population growth on economic growth and development. We have all the data we need but still require precipitation projection estimates by country. Many of the climate models used in the latest IPCC give estimates of precipitation but the aggregate data at the country level is very hard to find. I have looked at downloading CMIP5 data from ESGF data facility but the system has many bugs and I cannot find the exact data I am looking for. Moreover it only provides data at very high spatial resolution. This is fine as I can aggregate this information to the level of the country but I don't know what dataset is most appropriate for doing this analysis. Has an emulator been developed for precipitation, or perhaps an average estimate of precipitation changes estimated by the different climate change models? We are interested in changes out to 2050 and 2100. Monthly estimates would also be helpful as this gives seasonal changes in water availability. I know these estimates are highly uncertain, but we are taking this into consideration in our study.
A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is a complex of thunderstorms that becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms but smaller than extratropical cyclones, and normally persists for several hours or more. A mesoscale convective system's overall cloud and precipitation pattern may be round or linear in shape, and include weather systems such as tropical cyclones, squall lines, lake-effect snow events, polar lows, and Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs), and generally form near weather fronts. The type that forms during the warm season over land has been noted across North America, Europe, and Asia, with a maximum in activity noted during the late afternoon and evening hours.
I am working on new research studying the impact of climate change on water resources. We want to develop future climate scenarios and test them against the current system to come up with different mitigations.
My knowledge of climate change modeling is very limited. I want to downscale different climate change scenarios to a spatial level in order to conduct the test on the targeted region (small county in CA state).
My question here is: Are there any recommended books/papers that help explain the different methods of downscaling (Statistical & Dynamic) in detail? Also, what is the best computer software to generate the scenarios? (I am here basically talking about daily precipitation, wind, humidity, and temperature.)
Thanks in advance!
We on the globe, notice that days and years have fixed periods due to earth's own rotation well defined 24 hour cycle and nearly but exactly 365 days yearly period around the sun. The question is whether, despite such absolutely repeatable motions, the effect on the earth faces uncertainties appearing as storms, floods and other natural calamities. These are randomized and unpredictable on long term basis, though models based on empirical data do account for such forecasts. In my opinion the positional fluctuations in temperature in air and water on the earth cause this randomness which results in such huge effects. Thus, is it safe to conclude that although the nature completes its essentially repeatable cycles when viewed from outside the universe, these local fluctuations are like uncertainties inherent because of man made disturbances in the atmosphere consisting of moveable stuff like air and water? Does it mean that inter planet effects are maintained uniformly without any variations year after year, but intra planet effects can be tremendous and this is generalized to all similar inter and intra systems?
I am working on snow cover and vegetation phenology in near real time from remote sensing methods. Some special patterns of these variables could be easily explained by temperature or precipitation parameters. But I can't find a synthesis comparing weather conditions of a month or of a season with past data at the European scale which would be very useful for me.
A warmer ocean can exclude significant amount of CO2 to the atmosphere. It indicates a positive forcing factor to the global warming scenarios.
Teleconnection between global ocean SST and the rainfall variability over the Ethiopian Highland.