Science topic

Climate Change - Science topic

Climate Change is an any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). It may result from natural factors such as changes in the sun's intensity, natural processes within the climate system such as changes in ocean circulation, or human activities.
Questions related to Climate Change
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How are ecological footprint and carbon footprint related to sustainability? How does reducing carbon footprint in climate change environment?
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The mangrove preservation and restoring helps the local communities, they preserve the mangrove forest, then they have enought shrimps, oisters and fishes to catch and to sell, they dont need to emigrate to urban áreas beacuse they can survive with the natural resources. The beauty of the landscape is recovered or mantained, culture, ancestral fisheries tecniques are preserve. Kids learn how to preserve nature, quality of live improves. All writen before is part of sustainability. When restoring the mangrove we can lower the ecological foot print of the comunities, also there is carbon stocks that companies pay to preserve certain areas of forest.
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Hi everyone! Are there any methods, theories or determinants in assessing the level of capacity and resilience in floating communities (buoyant settlements/ static elevated settlements).
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there are many indices but the Livelihood vulnerability index is the most adaptable and versatile. Please check it.
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As a consequence of the 2012 green market paradigm shift avoidance all countries are left on their own to address the environmental crisis without a common green market framework to promote, expand, and nurture economic activity systematically.
All countries are following different versions of dwarf green markets and different definitions of green, some of them that are inconsistent with green market thinking, but politically viable....But politically viable, does not make it right as when you burn the gas you get CO2.....
For example, the EU came out with the definition of "green gas" to solve a political problem, in an environmentally unfriendly manner.. Now the US came out with the definition of "polluting gas" as CO2 from burning it is air pollution to address a political problem, but in an environmentally friendly way…. and this raises the question, .Who is wrong: The EU / Green gas or the USA / Polluting gas?.
What do you think?
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Dear friends, some of you may find some good food for thoughts in this article just published. Here sharing it in good faith.
Sustainability thoughts 139: How can the 2012 road to transition from environmental pollution based traditional economies to the environmentally clean economies that the world never built be pointed out?
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Climate Change, Rainfall, Hydrological Cycle, Groundwater Recharge, Water Scarcity, Shallow Aquifers.
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Yes. With intensity of rainfall going up and its distribution being skewed as compared to in the past, there is a increase in run-off, reduction in infiltration and therefore in recharge of aquifers.
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United Nations reports seem to indicate that we are not going to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals for three reasons: - climate change, - War in Ukraine - Covid
What do you think?
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We can only do our best. Covid will be gone soon, wars end and we can try hard to reduce climate change :)
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Hi everyone,
I'm working on a research project on building performance under climate change scenarios. Does anyone know where can I get the future climate data in .EPW format for both typical and extreme weather files based on the IPCC climate change scenarios AR5 or AR6 in the US region?
Thanks a lot for your time,
With regards,
Ahmad Faiz Khan
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I think Yes, what do you think?
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You are an original thinker and researcher; I have taken your works on sustainability into account. Astronomy replaced astrology, chemistry replaced alchemy; the same process is currently in the making, with respect to social science: what is now understood as economics (mainly a mathematized derivate of private wealth accumulation and subsequent management practices) will be replaced by a more scientific model of human economic action, cleaned up from ideological wishlists. I do regard the profound study of other authors as a precondition of learning, dear Lucio Muñoz Most of my articles and books, i.e. my own work and views, are on my RG account (e.g.
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Hi frds,
any comparative research about the differences and breadth of the ecology movements in the mid-70s-early 80s vs now available?
Where is the difference in socio-cultural typology clusters, age, gender, and socialization background?
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This not research, but rather, personal observation, having earned my MS in Ecology in 1978. Climate change was not even a topic, except in a theotetical sense. There was more emphasis on basic science and less on applied, more conservation, less restoration. There was no GIS. Remember, this was before the advent of the personal computer. To construct and test a systems model, you had to write code to punch cards and get in line to use the mainframe. I don't ever remember hearing the terms: landscape ecology, patchiness, fragmentation, human ecology. Here is an exercize for you. Assemble a glossary of commonly used terms in the field of ecology and find when they first appeared in the literature. I think you will find that a large percentage appeared after 1990.
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How can instruments and systems for the conservation of nature, the biosphere, the highly biodiverse coral reef ecosystems of the seas and oceans be improved?
The ongoing process of global warming is also causing, among other things, an increase in the temperature of the seas and oceans. This increase in temperature and the increase in the scale of water pollution in the seas and oceans is causing the death of coral reefs, which have formed over millions of years and have developed the most biodiverse ecosystems of the seas and oceans.
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of researchers and scientists:
How can instruments and systems for the conservation of nature, of the biosphere, of the highly biodiverse coral reef ecosystems of the seas and oceans be improved?
What is your opinion on this?
What do you think about this topic?
Please reply,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Dariusz Prokopowicz : Firstly, Coral reefs systems consist of both coldwater/deepsea corals, and tropical coral reefs with associated ecosystems of mangroves, seagrass beds, etc. Hence, anthropogenic causes (including IPCC's position that climate change is mainly due to anthropogenic GHGs emissions) of the deteriorating conditions of these coral reefs can differ. For example, deepsea corals which are NOT zooxanthellae-linked located off New Zealand or off the Nordic margin (off Norway) etc are threatened by oil & gas drillings and activities. The tropical coral reefs and associated ecosystems are damaged, inter alia, by coastal areas development (cities, military bases, unsustainable agriculture/aquaculture, tourism, etc, contributing to actual reefs physical destruction and via pollutants such as plastics, chemicals, fertilizers and sediments runoffs changes etc), Oil & Gas activities, Oil spills, submarine cables laying, military activities, pollutions, shipping activities such as garbage/pollutants dumping, ship-groundings; tourists' activities (e.g. inexperienced tourists/snorkelers/divers accidentally breaking the corals, destructive fishing practices such as bottom trawling and fish-bombing, strong waves during hurricanes, and high sea surface temperature (SST) that can lead to bleachings, etc. (Keep in mind the Great Barrier Reef has recently been reported to recover well).
Hence, the ways to address the coral reefs decline are also diverse, and can be very site-specific.
Instruments and systems for marine biodiversity conservation in the face of global warming can be at various levels e.g. legal :
International level: multilateral environmental agreements, IMO Rules and Procedures, etc, soft laws such as Rio Declaration, etc
Regional level: Regional organizations or IO, Regional Fisheries Management Organizations, etc
National and local level: national laws, municipal or local government laws and town planning, etc
The instruments and systems can be vastly improved with, among others:
Honest co-operation using, inter alia, precautionary, fair and equitable principles, common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR), with sufficient funding and technical assistance, technology transfer for the poorer tropical countries to conserve marine biodiversity, respecting indigenous peoples and local communities rights (conservation for the people, with the people), and the special situation of Small Islands Developing States (SIDS) and developing countries most impacted by climate-related sealevel rise, and coastal floodings, etc.
There is no fair sense in making the economically-challenged developing countries (sans adequate funding/tech assistance) to carry out the huge obligations as proposed in the CBD draft Global Biodiversity Framework Target 3 etc currently being negotiated, for resolving global problems such as climate change and associated biodiversity loss that IPCC had stated was due to mainly historic anthropogenic GHGs emissions (by developed countries). Lessons learn from the Aichi Targets failures (also SDG failures) due to lack of sufficient funding and tech assistance should not be repeated.
Hence, one of the ways to improve is to ensure at all MEAs negotiations, Developed Countries shall also shoulder the obligations for global biodiversity conservation, showing honest co-operation for fair and equitable outcomes.
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I think Yes, what do you think?
Please provide your own views on the question.
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Red socialism a la Karl Marx aimed at the end of pure capitalism(profits/growth the problem destroying society), social equality without freedom, Opium here religion.
Green socialism a la Karl Marx aims at the end of dwarf green captalism(profits/growth the problem destroying nature), environmental equality without freedom, Opium here is green marketwashing and dwarf green market development goals and policies
Your comments are inconsistent with your answer YES
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I think Yes, what do you think?
Please provide your own views on the question
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Dear Lucio,
Yes, but unfortunately only in theory at the moment. In order for the socio-economic system built on the model of full green, pro-environmental, pro-climate socialism based on a sustainable, green circular economy to be successful in comparison with (as you call it) dwarf green capitalism, it is necessary to significantly increase the pro-environmental awareness of citizens and significantly increase the scale of creation and implementation of new eco-innovations and green technologies on an industrial scale, thanks to which it will be possible to significantly accelerate the efficient implementation of the process of pro-environmental transformation of the classic growth, brown, linear excess economy into a sustainable, green, zero-emission zero-growth economy and a circular economy, and to build a system of economically profitable, pro-environmental and pro-climate economic ventures.
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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I think No, what do you think?
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Felipe, good day.
Since you are interested in the idea, I am sharing here in good faith some thoughts even though this will move attention away from the relevant question at hand.
The following concepts are relevant directly or indirectly to the question at hand: environmentally dirty markets, environmentally clean markets, environmental pollution reduction markets, environmental externality management based markets, green markets, dwarf green markets, and renewable energy technology gap.
This knowledge allows us/me to frame the road to transition from environmentally dirty economies to environmentally clean economies understanding that there is an environmental externality problem separating them, which needs to be fixed.
As you may know in 2012 the world went the way of managing that externality problem instead of fixing, a situation we have today, which has led to extreme dependency on non-renewable in those countries who avoided the green market paradigm shift in 2012, which in turns led to an increase in value and revenue for those owners of non-renewable energy. Had we gone green markets and had we invested heavily and systematically in closing the renewable energy technology gap, then dependency and the value of non-renewable resources would have gone down while making money through pollution reduction planning, a win-win for the economy and the environment….The pain of deep dependency on non-renewable energy because of green market paradigm shift avoidance and transition from dirty to clean economy avoidance becomes clear when there are disruptions on the supply of non-renewable, including wars or trade disputes or natural disasters, which has negative social, economic and environmental impacts.
As those concepts are not yet well-known, I am working on a series of papers to help spread them, one of those papers on the road to transition from dirty to clean economies is almost done, just the reference part is missing. I will share it as soon as it is published.
Have a nice day
Lucio
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The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic has, in some respects, through interrupted chains of international supply and supply logistics, reduced the scale of economic globalisation processes. On the other hand, the need for the development of remote Internet communication has increased due to the introduction of home quarantine periods and lockdowns imposed on selected sectors of the economy in 2020. Consequently, the scale of internetisation and digitalisation of various aspects of business conducted by companies and enterprises has increased. As a result of the growth of the Internet, the importance of information globalisation has increased in terms of remote Internet-based communication. In a multi-year perspective, the importance of environmental and pro-climate globalisation may increase in the future. In view of the above, how else will globalisation processes change in this decade of the 21st century? Will the current energy crisis, the unfolding food crisis, the migration crisis
What is your opinion on this?
What is your opinion on this topic?
Please reply,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Over the past decades, a number of sources of globalization have emerged. One of them is technological progress, which has led to a sharp reduction in transport and communication costs, a significant reduction the costs of processing, storing and using information.
The second source of globalization is trade liberalization and other forms of economic liberalization that have curtailed protectionist policies and made world trade freer. As a result there were tariffs have been substantially reduced, and many other barriers to trade in goods and services have been removed. Other liberalization measures have led to an increase in the movement of capital and other factors of production.
The third source of globalization can be considered a significant expansion of the scope of organizations, which became possible both as a result of technological progress and wider horizons of management on basis of new means of communication. Thus, many companies that previously focused only on local markets have expanded their production and marketing capabilities, reaching the national, multinational, international and even global level.
Globalization brings not only benefits, it is fraught with negative consequences or potential problems, which some of its critics see as a great danger.
One of the main problems is related to the question: who benefits from globalization? In fact, most of the benefits are rich countries or individuals. The unfair distribution of the benefits of globalization gives rise to the threat of conflicts at the regional, national and international levels.
The second problem is related to potential regional or global instability due to the interdependence of national economies at the global level. Local economic fluctuations or crises in one country may have regional or even global implications.
The third set of problems posed by globalization is caused by the fear that control over the economies of individual countries may shift from sovereign governments to other hands, including the most powerful states, multinational or global corporations and international organizations.
Because of this, some see globalization as an attempt to undermine national sovereignty. For this reason, globalization can make national leaders feel helpless before its forces, and the electorate - antipathy towards her. Such sentiments can easily turn into extreme nationalism and xenophobia with calls for protectionism, lead to the growth of extremist political movements, which is potentially fraught with serious conflicts.
The problem generated by globalization - the infringement of national sovereignty and the independence of political leaders - can also be largely resolved on the basis of international cooperation, for example, by a clear delineation of the powers of the parties, i.e. national governments and their leaders, on the one hand, and international organizations and multinational or global corporations, on the other. The very involvement of political leaders in building the necessary institutions to deal with these and other globalization-related issues will help them regain the sense that they are in control of their future and in control of their positions in the world.
Globalized world. In the meantime, unfortunately, the world is moving in the opposite direction, along the path of political and military dictate of a strong
weak, that in the context of globalization of all aspects of the life of the world community, it is fraught with a global confrontation.
The current crisis of the Western economy is not a recession because it is not cyclical and is not limited to 12-16 months. What is happening in the US and Europe today is a structural crisis, a process that began in the fourth quarter of 2021 and will continue for at least five years without interruption. However, the West does not understand the causes and essence of the crisis, because they do not have theories describing it. That is why, according to the economist, the American and European authorities are doing stupid things instead of effective measures to resolve problems.
It was impossible to avoid this crisis, because they went too far. They have expanded private consumption so much that they can no longer keep it. You need to name the main number. There is an indicator in the United States that they do not disclose in public discussion: this is the level of price growth for all industrial goods, not only for final goods entering the wholesale trade, but in general for everything, from raw materials to the final product. For the first time, the rise in prices for manufactured goods exceeded the level of the late 1970s. The previous peak was at the end of 1947. There are 23 with something percent.
The entire system of socio-political management in the West, both in the USA and in Europe, is built through representatives of the middle class, qualified consumers. Today this instrument is being destroyed. Instead of the middle class, new poor people appear, who have a middle-class attitude, but they have no money.
The sanctions pressure on Russia has exacerbated the economic problems of the West. European financiers note that EU politicians are afraid to take responsibility for decisions taken under the slogans of transatlantic solidarity and assistance to Ukraine.
In fact, this whole situation with global confrontation and the breakdown of the dollar system is disastrous for the United States not by economic factors, but by intellectual ones. Roughly speaking, Washington will undoubtedly lose to Moscow only because the US does not even have a concept of a plan to solve the colossal economic problems and save the dollar system.
Intellectual life in the US and Russia goes in opposite directions. The US has nothing left for a long time. There, no one can imagine even a weak positive scenario. The complete absence of any thought, not to mention the concept.
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I think No, what do you think?.
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In my opinion, the globalization of markets has a large carbon footprint.
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In your opinion, What is the impact of climate change on the long-term grazing capacity of mountain range lands?
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Ultimately it will imbalance the health of grassland ecosystem.
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What is the impact of climate change on the long-term grazing capacity of mountainous range lands?
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Ultimately there will be less production of grasses due to climate change
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Dear reachers,
I am studying the "qmap" package in R language, to perform bias correction (Quantile Mapping). I have read the Help Documentation about "qmap" package, and all cases are based on precipitation data. These codes include common parameter——“wet.day”, which is intended for precipitation data.
What is the difference between specific R codes for different climatic variables, such as precipitation, temperature, solar, or wind speed?
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Thank you for your detailed explanation of the fitQmap function.
In this function, how to set the parameter——“wet.day” for different variables? For precipitation data, the parameter should be "wet.day = TRUE". For other variables, is that "wet.day = FALSE"?
Best regards
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There is a serious push in the USA right now August 2022 to save the trees on government land from logging by executive order or by law under the stressor that “Saving the trees that belong to society cost nothing”. And this means the land use called protected use costs nothing,
And this raises the question, Does the protection of trees/forest land under government ownership cost nothing to society?
What do you think?
Please share your own views on the use protection question.
Note: this is an academic question, not a political one.
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Dear Geoff, we have gone off the relevant question here, so this will be my last comment to your outside the question comments….
With respect to your previous comments and the current comments….
You original comments and critic of the working of the traditional market and its negative social and environmental consequences are consistent with my point of view because that means that we have been trying to use a distorted market in environmental terms to address environmental problems, a big inconsistency. However since GDP thinking is part of the distorted traditional market thinking, then unless it is made consistent with the relevant environmental sustainability problem like green GDP produced by green market growth where green producers and green consumers meet at the green market price, then the GDP based on distorted thinking is also distorted….
So to move the status quo forward we need to thinking outside the box, beyond the traditional economic box
Before the Brundtland Commission report in 1987 I was thinking about how to correct the distorted traditional market model to transition it from a fully dirty market nature to a fully clean market nature using sustainability thinking, and then the commission formally called for correcting the social and environmental issues associated with the traditional market development model…. Then I realized that since 1776 to 1987 most economists knew or should have known the assumption of environmental and social neutrality assumptions and the assumption of population dynamic neutrality assumptions in the long term were going to lead to over production, over consumption and over population problems, but they remained silent. So I started a one man project to slowly but sure document the short comings of the traditional market models in simple terms and shared ideas on how to go beyond traditional business as usual model as the Brundtland commission asked in terms of red market thinking, green market thinking and sustainability market thinking….. Then came, Kyoto protocol, then came 2012 Rio +20 and the supposed move to green markets, then came the world of dwarf green markets a la environmental externality management and the flipping of traditional perfect market thinking…..And with all those events came paradigm shift knowledge gaps that needed to be closed….
Below I shared some of my articles related to the issues described above with some good food for thoughts on beyond business as usual
Did Adam Smith Miss the Chance to State the Goal and Structure of Sustainability Markets in His Time? If Yes, Which Could Be Some of the Possible Reasons Behind That?
What If Markets Have Always Been Distorted? Would It Then Be a Good Fix to Add Fair Trade Margins to Correct Distorted Agricultural Market Prices?
Complex and Man-made Markets: Are We Currently Approaching Sustainability in a Backward and More Chaotic Way in Terms of Economic Thinking?
Beyond Traditional Market Thinking: What is the Structure of the Perfect Green market?
Sustainability thought 165: How can we show that the overpopulation framework a la ecological overshoot is a subset of the most distorted market price possible framework? What are the main implications of this?
From Traditional Markets to Green Markets: A Look at Markets Under Perfect Green Market Competition
Sustainability thoughts 126: Are environmental externality management based production and consumption bundles inconsistent with green pareto efficiency and with pareto efficiency principles at the same time? If yes, why?
The Flipping of Traditional Economic Thinking: Contrasting the Working of Dwarf Green Market Thinking with that of Green Market Thinking to Highlight Main Differences and Implications
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what are the potential advers effects of climate change on health (country health/community health)?
how can the countries be ready to face these problems?
how can we correlate these effects with our health?
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Each country has its peculiarities. For example, extreme heat waves that may cause draught and eventual wild fire, as seen in Morocco and Algeria. In the other hand, torrential rainfall may cause flooding and it's devastating effects; as seen in North Sudan and Chad. The two examples have different health isdues. Therefore, these common effects of Climate Change seen recently in these countries, present different kind of circumstances, in need of different approaches. This implies a lack of one-size-fit-all approach to the challenges, as such, understanding the issues confronting each country, might help the country in curtailing her peculiarities of Climate change effects on health.
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Do green lending banks in the process of screening the creditworthiness of a potential borrower take into account the prospective negative effects of the progressive process of global warming?
Commercial banks, as part of their credit risk management, carry out, as part of their standard credit procedures, an examination of the potential borrower's creditworthiness or the potential borrower's business entity's creditworthiness and the credit risk it will accept when deciding whether to grant a loan. In view of this, and given the growing importance of green loans in commercial banks' loan offers, I address the following questions to the esteemed community of researchers and academics:
Do commercial banks granting green loans take into account potential, prospective, future, negative effects of climate change, including the effects of the progressive process of global warming, which will affect the credited pro-environmental economic undertakings to a certain extent and in a certain character, in their credit risk management process prior to the possible granting of a loan?
How is green credit risk measured, analysed, controlled? On what assumptions are the green credit procedures based? Is the credit risk management process different from the green credit risk management process carried out in commercial banks providing green loans?
If the state provides guarantees and/or subsidies for green loans, does the level of green credit risk decrease significantly since such public financial support makes these loans more accessible?
What is your opinion on this?
What is your opinion on this topic?
Please reply,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Warm regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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They should
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Is there any relationship between man's perspective to climate change and climate change itself? Thanks in advance.
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We live in a Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) world. And our climate crisis guarantees it will remain a VUCA world for decades. Climate touches everything so it has knock on effects in society, technology, economics and politics, and, obviously, on our ecosystem.
Traditionally, uncertainty has been the enemy of business leaders. How does one forecast and strategize when living in a time when anything can happen? The first step is to change how we perceive uncertainty. What if we embrace it?
“Anything can happen.” What an opportunity! When I state that the future is malleable, I mean there are an infinite number of potential futures… and we can cultivate the one we will experience by the actions we take today...
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Since June 33 millions of southern regional people those already put to trial, neglected and oppressed are under climatic attack, since June, flood hit them hard and it's not taken as seriously still.
Pakistan politically must be sanctioned per being black levelled.
On international level for the climatic catestrophy Pakistan administration why not pressured to take responsibility for those people?
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Nafees Mohammad thank you for your opinion I welcome you here.
About climate issue and solutions you are dismissive.
The Authorities are responsible true.
Water management by digging up is must solution I and many other columnists been shouting out for years.
Let's work on solution together enough of conflicts of opinions. Damages are done much already.
Water issue is; too much and too little, both.
Regards
Fatema Miah
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How can instruments and systems for the conservation of the nature, biosphere, highly biodiverse ecosystems of the Amazon rainforests be improved?
The Amazon rainforest is the largest natural forest complex on planet Earth and is characterised by an exceptionally high level of biodiversity of natural forest ecosystems. Most of the millions of species of flora and fauna of the Amazon rainforest biodiversity are found exclusively in this forest formation. However, due to predatory logging management and increasingly frequent forest fires, the area of the Amazon's biodiverse rainforests is declining rapidly. The increasing incidence of fires in these forest formations is a consequence of the progressive process of global warming and the burning of the forest for the purpose of acquiring additional areas on which to grow crops according to a model of unsustainable, intensive agriculture. As the biodiverse rainforests of the Amazon absorb large quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere, they are one of several key factors in slowing down the progressive process of global warming. It is therefore urgently necessary to replace programmes for the deforestation of the Amazonian biodiverse rainforests and to replace this process of aforestation of civilisationally degraded areas, which is very negative for the climate and the biosphere of the planet.
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of researchers and scientists:
How can instruments and systems for the conservation of nature, of the biosphere, of the highly biodiverse ecosystems of the Amazon rainforest be improved?
What is your opinion on this?
What do you think about this topic?
Please reply,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Greetings,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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The annual economic-producing value of a square kilometer of intact Amazon forest must be worth at least 2X as much as chopping it down and converting it to something else, like a soybean field, oil palm plantation, or pasture. For example, the USA, China and India could pay to keep the forest intact and produce carbon credits for the Portuguese. Otherwise it is a losing battle because the Portuguese in charge of the natural resource have ZERO economic reasons to keep ANY of it around in the future. The other option is that the Portuguese decide that the entire forest is sacred and you cannot chop down a single tree, even the dead ones, as the Jains of India feel about their Sacred Forests in the Western Ghats. But in the 500 years that the Europeans have lived in the Americas, that religious sensibility has never developed about anything in the Americas. As "Lame Deer the Seeker of Visions" wrote in his book, to the Europeans, everything has a price tag on it. This is speaking as a Native Person myself. You cannot save anything on this planet, if its annual economic-producing value of leaving it alone does not exceed the value of destroying it.
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Hi frds,
-What is the methodology for detecting the time of major volcano eruptions in history?
-Has there been a major eruption in the time window 2400-2100 BC?
Cherish your feedback.
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Dear Thomas,
sure, many volcanic eruptions are known from the period you're referring to. Which part of the world are you interested in and why specifically this time window?
As for methodologies of identification and dating: Standard geological techniques from sedimentology, stratigraphy etc. are widely used and are both quite reliable as well as accurate these days. Within the not too distant past, these may be complemented - or even surpassed - by historical (and/or archaeological) records.
Best,
Julius
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Working on a community project in Lagos State with topic based on Climate change: flooding.
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3 September MMXXII
With panic...
Cordially...
ASJ
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I am interested in a discussion about the calculation of curves of Return Period for risk analysis (for natural phenomena).
I know that most of the building construction standards calculate these curves assuming stationary conditions; in other words, they do not consider the impact of climate change. What is their justification for using stationary conditions? Could some colleagues please send me links to papers, reports, etc. about this issue? Thank you very much.
Rgds,
L.A. Sanabria
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Many thanks, Augusto, for compiling this overview - this is very interesting! All the best, Julius
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Green markets are supposed to be driven by pollution reduction based profit making so in the long run produce at the lowest green market price possible while at the same time transitioning to a clean economy, a non-pollution, full or dominant renewable energy based economy .
But instead of green markets, we have dwarf green markets, cleared by dwarf green market prices delinked from green market pricing and delinked from clean market transition, a situation that resembles a black hole as dwarf green markets are not green markets and they are not traditional markets.
The above discussion raises the question: Does the 2012 green market paradigm shift avoidance means that we are living today in an environmental black hole under management? I think yes, what do you think?
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Dear Nicolay, the research focused on how to go to the green economy as first step to transition to the clean economy was done just before and during 2012 rio +20, but then they did not go the way of green markets and the idea of transitioning to the green economy was buried within SDS environmental sustainability goal I think....
That is why I will start sharing my ideas step by step on how it should have been done or may be done in the future of there is time....
All starts with the dirty economy and the two key steps to take to go from dirty to clean eco omies while being financially and environmentally responsible...in the business side and in the consumer side...
I will share those ideas once published...
Unless you have anything to add, let's leave it here...
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The decline in agricultural production and exports in many countries is pushing up food prices. The scale of food shortages will increase in many countries and the risk of a food crisis is growing. More and more data confirms that after the recent pandemic economic crisis 2020, the growing economic crisis caused by high inflation, the developing energy crisis in 2023, there will also be a food crisis in many parts of the world. In the current 2022, a number of factors have simultaneously emerged that could lead to a food crisis and hunger in many countries of the world. These include the following factors:
1. the war in Ukraine (production and exports of cereals and other agricultural crops from Russia and Ukraine have fallen significantly).
2. Record heat, drought, forest and crop field fires in many parts of the world (in India, record heat reaching 50 ct. C in the shade; drought throughout the western states of the USA; in central and eastern Africa the worst drought in 40 years).
3. Flooding of farmland in China in 2021 (30 million acres of farmland under water. Chinese authorities have announced that the 2022 crop yield could be the lowest in the context of the previous few decades).
4. postcovid broken chains of international logistics and supplies.
5. in 2020, the Lebanese capital Beirut suffered a gigantic explosion at the port that destroyed all infrastructure, including huge grain silos.
For these and other reasons, the number of people in the world at risk of hunger has increased by 80 per cent in the last five years, from 108 million to 183 million people.
After Vladimir Putin ordered 200,000 Russian troops into Ukraine, the global food situation went from poor to bad. Especially this negative trend is developing in poor countries, where economies are underdeveloped and income levels of citizens are also low.
Before the war, Ukraine was the 5th economy in terms of global wheat exports, 3rd in barley exports, 3rd in maize exports and 1st in oilseed exports (e.g. sunflower). In Ukraine, areas of fertile chernozem extend as far as Manzuria. Before the war, Ukraine produced 9 per cent of the world's wheat, and together with Russia, this is now 30 per cent. Ukraine generated 20 per cent of the world's maize exports. By contrast, Ukraine's exports of sunflower oil account for as much as 75 per cent of the global share. Food exports from Ukraine are also estimated at 1/8 of all calories sold globally. Most of these exports before the war, i.e. before 24 February 2022, were loaded onto ships in Odessa and Novorossiysk and transported to the Middle East and elsewhere in the world. The war has created serious problems for food production and export in Ukraine. The Russians have blockaded the Black Sea ports with their Black Sea fleet.
In view of the above, I address the following question to the honourable community of scientists and researchers:
How can the scale of the development of the food crisis be reduced?
What is your opinion on this topic?
Please reply,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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@ Dariusz, there are many ways to reduce the food crisis. The most important are: to reduce the food waste, improve trade policies, improve existing infrastructure programme, promote diversification, work to defeat the climate change and close the yield gap.
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One of the central concerns the 1987 WCED had was the need to go beyond economic as usual in social and environmental terms to make development socially and environmentally friendly, and the UNCSD 2012 saw the move to green markets and green economies as the way to go, but there was no move to green markets....
This has led apparently to two versions of environmentally friendly economics that are supposed to take us beyond economic thinking as usual, but only one does, g,reen economics and dwarf green economics... and these two different concepts are apparently described as the same when they are not. Which raises the academic question; Green economics vrs dwarf green economics: Can you see the differences ?
Contrasting the two types of economics should free the differences.
Please share your own views on the question, not third party views
Short answers are best
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Dear friends, at the end of the context provided on which this question is based and found just below the question it says: "Please share your own views on the question, not third party views"
Hence, I am interested in the personal views of those wishing to answer the question at hand here so we can exchange ideas.
Understanding these differences between green economics and dwarf green economics can help us to see if the current economic way in which we are approaching environmental issues like climate change is the right one from the perfect green market theory point of view or not, and if not, why not.
Respectfully yours;
Lucio
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What do you think are the key factors that could trigger a food crisis in your country in the next quarters and/or years?
Due to many different factors, a food crisis can develop in many countries. The international supply and supply logistics chains that were interrupted during the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic have not been fully rebuilt. Rising fuel prices are driving up the cost of transporting food products to shops. The decline in fertiliser production is also driving up the cost of producing crops. In addition, the war in Ukraine has resulted in a decline in cereal supplies to many countries. The lack of electricity has caused a decline in the production of nitrogenous fertilisers. This then caused a decrease in the production of CO2, which benefits producers of many types of food products. Many food product factories are raising the prices of their products due to increases in raw material, energy and fuel prices. Many production facilities are reducing the scale of production. There may be job cuts. Consumption is falling due to high inflation. If a downturn in the economy occurs in the next quarters, many companies may go out of business and unemployment will rise. In addition, periods of increasingly severe drought, more and more hot days and less and less rain and more and more frequent fires in many parts of the world are causing a significant drop in crop production in agriculture. On the other hand, further food crises may arise in the future in the long term, which will be the result of a global climate crisis developing on a multi-year scale.
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of researchers and scientists:
What do you think are the key factors that could trigger a food crisis in your country in the next quarters and/or years?
What should be done to reduce the scale of development of the food crisis?
What is your opinion on the subject?
What do you think about this topic?
Please reply,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Dear Dariusz
I dare to assert that all epigenetic factors may initiate a food crisis (Social interaction, war, disease, financial, created deficiencies etc.) More important is to have strategies to contain an emerging problem so that it will not spread globally. To avoid that we formed the UNO. In the post war era we also created the global market. Unfortunately, this is an economic concept that is based on competition and the winner in competition are those with with power. Now we are witnessing the global economy is dividing and consolidating in blocks. Unfortunately, the blocksformation is permananentl restructured and driven by a few war mongers. For them power is more important than food for the global citizen.
Many people are afraid and believe that we have too many people on the globe. For them war is the preferred mode to assure access to food. They cant imagine that with innovation and new circulatory technologies it is possible to multiply food supply. Food shortage is always a distribution problem. There are many actors around that increase value through shortage. The alternative is entrepreneurial collaboration with advanced technologies to assure a very large diversity of healthy food, enhanced with free global trade via internet. Science has failed to convince taxpayer that with sustainable technologies we will always have enough food for everybody.
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What is the level of biodiversity loss of the planet's natural ecosystems as a result of the progressive process of climate change?
During the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic in 2020, there was a recession of the economy, the level of consumption, the scale of international transport of products, international tourism, car use, fuel and energy consumption, etc. declined.
There was then an opportunity to accelerate the processes of pro-environmental transformation of the economy, including the pro-environmental transformation of the transport sector, energy, construction, etc.
Unfortunately, this opportunity was not seized. As a consequence of these omissions, the subsequent economic and energy crises will be deeper than if the necessary transformation of the energy sector, which is being implemented through the development of renewable and emission-free energy sources, had been carried out in the past.
As a result, the global warming process continues to accelerate and progress faster than even the earlier IPCC reports published a few years ago and earlier.
One of the negative consequences of the continuing process of global warming is the loss of biodiversity of natural ecosystems.
I would therefore like to ask the following question:
Is there research on the extent of the loss of biodiversity of natural ecosystems on a global scale as a result of the progressive process of global warming?
Is there data on the state of biodiversity loss in natural ecosystems as a result of the progressive process of global warming, as a result of civilisation's emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases since the beginning of the first industrial revolution?
What is the scale of the loss of biodiversity of natural ecosystems, fauna and flora as a result of the progressive process of global warming?
What is the past and projected scale of loss of biodiversity of the biosphere as a result of the progressive process of global warming?
What is the level of biodiversity loss of the planet's natural ecosystems as a result of the progressive process of climate change?
What do you think?
What is your opinion on the subject?
What do you think about this issue?
Please reply,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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In Australia, we have lost around 50-60% of the population of most larger marsupials due to habitat clearing and clearfell forestry. The 2019 drought and mega-bushfires (and some other intensive fires in the previous decade or so) which in part were fuelled by climate change have further reduced populations of many marsupials by around half again. Some 20-25% of some species remain. In the case of the koala I have seen estimates of only 140,000 remaining in the wild. These are all preliminary and longer term data may show some bounce-back or some further declines (as recently record flooding also fueled in part by climate change has also impacted many of the areas impacted by the major drought and unprecedented bushfires.
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Are hotter and hotter summers, more and more frequent droughts, drying up rivers and lakes, less and less rainfall, more and more forest fires the result of climate change and, above all, of the increasingly rapid process of global warming?
Is the current (mid-2022) record low water level in rivers a weather anomaly or another example of a long-term unfavourable trend resulting from accelerating global warming?
As of mid-August 2022, river water levels in several countries in Europe are at a 500-year record low.
It has been reported in the meanstream media that, for example, France's longest river, the Loire, can already be crossed on foot in some places.
Besides, the Loire has never flowed so slowly. The Rhine in Germany, on the other hand, is fast becoming impassable by barges.
In Italy, the water level in the Po is 2 metres lower than usual, with devastating effects on crops.
Is this a weather anomaly or another example of an unfavourable trend realised over a multi-year period as a result of accelerating global warming?
Or is it a combination of various unfavourable factors in 2022, which has resulted in the simultaneous occurrence of weather anomalies and the effects of an accelerating global warming process?
On the one hand, many countries have experienced hotter and hotter summers, more and more hot days in the summer period, increasingly frequent droughts, rivers and lakes drying up, less and less rainfall, etc.
On the other hand, an increase in the scale of forest fires has been reported in many countries. In Poland, from the beginning to the middle of 2022, there have already been as many forest fires as in the whole of the previous 2021.
What is your opinion on this subject?
What is your opinion on this topic?
Please reply,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Greetings,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Drought
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Hi there,
looking for a model, forecasting the likelihood and impact of volcano eruption risk, due to climate change (glacier melting, destabilization, etc.).
As climate change hits the affected areas almost at the same time, this may be an interconnected cluster risk across the globe?
Seems the IPCC report does not quantify some Non-Noise risk for this in the RCP Scenarios.
Cherish research and ideas.
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There is some evidence that removal of overburden and crustal could lead to increased magma-rise. For example, volcanoes which currently exist under thick ice sheets 'may' be susceptible to this effect. Arguably, ice sheet removal (melting) may lead to an increased incidence of volcanic activity in those areas which are highly volcanically active, and initially exist under significant ice over-burden which is then rapidly removed. I believe there may be research considering this effect at the end of the last Ice Age in Iceland, and an increase in explosive activity (i.e., measured by the frequency of preserved ashes in soil horizons). The problem, as ever, is in the fidelity of the recent Pleistocene - Holocene (i.e., Quaternary and possibly older) geological record which might (or may not) demonstrate this to be a matter worthy of investigation. The difficulty over this type of time scale will be, as ever, disentangling the 'natural' Milanchovich-Croll climate cyclicity from that of any anthropogenically-mediated cause.
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In my country, more than a dozen years ago or more, there were real winters with snow and frost after the autumn. Whereas last winter, during the last few years it looked like autumn, without snow and positive temperatures. I think that the greenhouse effect, ie the warming of the Earth's climate, has already begun. This is also confirmed by numerous climatic cataclysms and weather anomalies, which in the current year 2018 appear in numerous places on the Earth. In some parts of the Earth there are fires of huge forest areas such as in Scandinavia, California in the USA, Australia, the Iberian Peninsula, Africa, etc. In addition, weather anomalies, e.g. snow and floods in October and November in the south of Europe.
In addition, tornadoes in many places on Earth and so on.
Perhaps these problems will get worse. It is necessary to improve security systems and anti-crisis services, improve the prediction of these anomalies and climatic cataclysms so that people can, have managed to shelter or cope with the imminent cataclysm. One of the technologies that can help in more precise forecasting of these cataclysms is the processing of large collections of historical and current information on this subject in the cloud computing technology in Big Data database systems.
Therefore, I am asking you: Will new data processing technologies in Big Data database systems allow for accurate prediction of climate disasters?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
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Despite a small amount of uncertainty, scientists find climate models of the 21st century to be pretty accurate because they are based on well-founded physical principles of earth system processes. This basis solidifies the confidence of the scientific community that human emissions are changing the climate, which will impact the entire planet.
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The topic of research is climate change and adaptation in the direction of water resources management. In this topic, I need the guidance of friends to do the research as well as possible. I will use the articles in this regard.
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How to choose wisely the journal (Indexed Scopus) in which to publish your first article. I work on household vulnerability assessment to climate change.
Are there any tools to find out the reaction time of journals after submission?
Thank you in advance for your answers!
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Hello
Try journal finder option for any academic publishing company.
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I'm very keening to obtain more information of how climate change affect the storm water pollution especially in urban areas with various articles published may be very helpful to my project.
Thank you
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Acidification induced by climate change causes change in water chemistry and increase the load of dissolved heavy metals
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What are the direct and immediate effects of climate change on plants photosynthesis and growth?
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The following link is also very useful RG link:
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How far have we gone into addressing climate change? Do you genuinely believe that we are making a difference, while all countries in the world are seeking to upsize their economies by boosting industrialisation.
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perhaps priority is the profile - also it is difficult to pressurize politicians
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Hi there,
looking for research regarding the assessment of renewable energies in Europe in a hopefully not, but potential scenario > 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2030?
At what temperature scenario threshold is e.g. wind energy not operational usable anymore?
Which renewable energies are the most physically antifragile in this non-normal distribution scenario and offer the best physical risk/reward ratio?
Cherish your feedback.
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It's hard to predict with such sudden changes!!
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Dear Researchers,
I am looking forward to receiving scientific documents demonstrating successful villages which overcome water crisis issues through public participatory approaches.
Thank you!
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Chilean example is rather good, where local communities take action to organiza water supply independently
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Those who read the 1987 Brundtland Commission Report know that it was about sustainable development solutions to the social and environmental sustainability issues embedded in the traditional market model due to the assumption of social and environmental externality neutrality that had led to social problems(poverty, over population) and environmental problems(Pollution, environmental degradation) that the commission highlighted as the reason for the need to go, not half way from business as usual, but away from business as usual, and they gave us the definition of sustainable development, not of sustainability…..
But look at the UN related page below and its content:
“ Sustainability
Sustainable development requires an integrated approach that takes into consideration environmental concerns along with economic development.
In 1987, the United Nations Brundtland Commission defined sustainability as “meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” Today, there are almost 140 developing countries in the world seeking ways of meeting their development needs, but with the increasing threat of climate change, concrete efforts must be made to ensure development today does not negatively affect future generations.
The Sustainable Development Goals form the framework for improving the lives of populations around the world and mitigating the hazardous man-made effects of climate change. SDG 13: Climate Action, calls for integrating measures to prevent climate change within development frameworks. SDG 14: Life Below Water, and SDG 15: Life on Land, also call for more sustainable practices in using the earth’s natural resources. “
See we know, a) sustainability(optimization based) is not sustainable development (maximization based); b) The commission gave us a definition of sustainable development and not of sustainability as they saw the social and environmental issues created by the traditional market in terms of sustainable development thinking; c) that is why we have sustainable development goals, NOT sustainability goals.
We know the sustainability model is different than the sustainable development model and according to the model inconsistency principle sustainability and sustainable development can not be equated or defined one as the other or the other as the one.
But the UN defines sustainability as sustainable development there, a scientific inconsistency as it violates the theory-practice consistency principle.
Which raises the question, Do defining sustainability as sustainable development requires alternative academic facts? If yes, Why?
I think YES, what do you think?
Feel free to provide your own view when answering the question.
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On Climate Modeling: During the last few years, a number of publications have been already devoted to the evaluation of the CIMP6 models, on the basis of historical climate data over different time periods spanning from 1850 to 2014 (Bock et al. 2020, Brunner et al. 2020, Laurent et al. 2021, Cusinato et al. 2021, Ashfaq et al. 2022). Ashfaq et al. (2022) confirm the ability of CMIP6 models (37 ESMs) to robustly represent observed patterns of oceanic and atmospheric modes associated with natural forcing (NAO, ENSO, PDO). Similar results are reported by Cusinato et al. (2021) from 24 CMIP6 models. Bock et al. (2020) show that the CIMP6 models reproduce well the recent increase in temperature. These results appear to be consistent with CIMP6 models evaluation by Laurent et al. (2020) (29 ESMs).
Ashfaq, M., Rastogi, D., Abid, M. A., & Kao, S. C. (2022). Evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs over the CONUS for downscaling studies.
Bock, L., Lauer, A., Schlund, M., Barreiro, M., Bellouin, N., Jones, C., ... & Eyring, V. (2020). Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125(21), e2019JD032321.
Brunner, L., Pendergrass, A. G., Lehner, F., Merrifield, A. L., Lorenz, R., and Knutti, R.: Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020, 2020.
Cusinato, E., Rubino, A., & Zanchettin, D. (2021). Winter Euro‐Atlantic Climate Modes: Future Scenarios From a CMIP6 Multi‐Model Ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(19), e2021GL094532.
Laurent, A., Fennel, K., Kuhn, A. (2021). An observation-based evaluation and ranking of historical Earth system model simulations in the northwest North Atlantic Ocean. Biogeosciences, 18(5), 1803-1822.
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The crises the WCED 1987 found were social and environmental in nature. The environmental crisis came from the fact that we were living under full or almost full non-renewable energy based economies that produce free pollution, and we needed to move away from them towards a world of clean economies, where economic activity is run through full or almost full renewable energy sources.
A move beneficial to both, the economy and the environment, if green markets are set up in between the pollution based economy and the clean economy and use them as a smooth transition mechanism. However, since 2012 the world went the way of dwarf green markets a la environmental externality management.
Which raises the questions, Does the decision to go green market paradigm shift avoidance since 2012 blocked the smooth transition path from the pollution based economy to the clean economy available in 2012? If yes, why?
I think YES, what do you think?
Please share your own views if you have, not third party views.
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Dear Lucio,
As you have more than once suggested to me that you prefer short answers, so this time I will answer briefly without arguing my reply at length. Well, in my view, if we are looking at the issue globally rather than regionally then, at least from the original premise, the decision to go green in 2012 and other similar such developments are unlikely to block the path of transition from a brown, unsustainable, combustion-based pollution economy to a clean, sustainable, green closed loop economy. However, problems arise when closely synonymous new concepts e.g. in the field of green, sustainable economy are defined and interpreted differently by different interest groups, by different stakeholders. In addition, these different interpretations are usually deliberate as a result of lobbying by certain interest groups operating in the business and/or political spheres, who are not interested in carrying out a pro-environmental transformation of the economy and developing a clean, sustainable, green circular economy.
Greetings,
Dariusz
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Hi there,
looking for research regarding the East African Rift, measuring its impact on weather patterns, floodings etc., and its stability properties.
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Thomas Schuermann, I am including the following two references, for your consideration.
Olaka, L. A., Odada, E. O., Trauth, M. H., & Olago, D. O. (2010). The sensitivity of East African rift lakes to climate fluctuations. Journal of Paleolimnology, 44(2), 629-644.
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Dear all,
I am going to derive the precipitation data from NETCDF files of CMIP5 GCMs in order to  forecast precipitation after doing Bias Correction with Quantile Mapping as a downscaling method. In the literature that some of the bests are attached, the nearest neighborhood and Inverse Distance Method are highly recommended.
The nearest neighbour give the average value of the grid to each point located in the grid as a simple method. According to the attached paper (drought-assessment-based-on-m...) the author claimed that the NN method is better than other methods such as IDM because:
"The major reason is that we intended to preserve the
original climate signal of the GCMs even though the large grid spacing.
Involving more GCM grid cell data on the interpolation procedure
(as in Inverse Distance Weighting–IDW) may result to significant
information dilution, or signal cancellation between two or more grid
cell data from GCM outputs."
But in my opinion maybe the IDM is a better choice because I think as the estimates of subgrid-scale values are generally not provided and the other attached paper (1-s2.0-S00221...) is a good instance for its efficiency.
I would appreciate if someone can answer this question with an evidence. Which interpolation method do you recommend for interpolation of GCM cmip5 outputs?
Thank you in advance.
Yours,
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Can you please refer to the tools and codes used in regridding?
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I think No, What do you think?
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Good day Esteban. Yes, the answer is No…..they are not addressing the root cause of the environmental problems; they are focusing on managing the consequences of having the root cause problem. If going green markets, green economies and green growth was the consensus in 2012 RIO +20, THEN ECONOMICS SHOULD HAVE GONE SINCE THEN FROM TRADITIONAL MICROECONIMICS TO GREEN MACROECONOMICS AND TRADITIONAL MACROECONOMICS SHOULD HAVE GONE GREEN MACROECONOMICS….Making pollution reduction profitable/beneficial for producers, consumers, the economy, and its growth…….That is consistent with perfect green market thinking…
You cannot move beyond business as usual as the WCED 1987 asked Under dwarf green markets if you do not correct the environmental sustainability problem embedded in the pricing mechanism of the traditional market…..Sadly green market paradigm shift avoidance in place since 2012 requires a systematic wave of willful academic blindness….Universities, governments, social, economic, and environmental NGOS, International organizations, think tanks….
---------------
Buen día Esteban. Sí, la respuesta es No…..no están abordando la causa raíz de los problemas ambientales; se están enfocando en manejar las consecuencias de tener el problema de causa raíz. Si ir a mercados verdes, economías verdes y crecimiento verde fue el consenso en 2012 RÍO +20, ENTONCES LA ECONOMÍA DEBERÍA HABER PASADO DESDE ENTONCES DE LA MICROECONOMÍA TRADICIONAL A LA MACROECONOMÍA VERDE Y LA MACROECONOMÍA TRADICIONAL DEBERÍA HABER PASADO A LA MACROECONOMÍA VERDE… Hacer que la reducción de la contaminación sea rentable/beneficiosa para los productores, los consumidores, la economía y su crecimiento… Eso es consistente con el pensamiento perfecto del mercado verde…
No se puede ir más allá de los negocios como de costumbre como la WCED 1987 pidió bajo los mercados verdes de apariencia si no se corrige el problema de sostenibilidad ambiental incrustado en el mecanismo de fijación de precios del mercado tradicional... Lamentablemente, evitar el cambio de paradigma del mercado tradicional al mercado verde vigente desde 2012 requiere una ola sistemática de ceguera académica voluntaria….Universidades, gobiernos, ONG sociales, económicas y ambientales, Organizaciones internacionales, grupo de expertos….
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I got two climate datasets containing data of mean anual air temperature for my study area, one based on interpolation of near meteorological stations (CRU Time Series) and the other based on climate models (ERA5). On both of them, despite wich kind of fit i try to do, the coefficient of determination values are below 0.3. Also, i got climate data from a relatively close airport of a mining project, and the values show some linear trend, but coefficient of determination is 0.65. I tried autocorrelation too, but values always drop drastically at lag-2. Am I correctly evaluating this? What maybe the reason why i can't see the any trends? I thank you in advance for your time and consideration on this matter.
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You are not the only one who doubts the existence of global warming. I noticed this after 1998, when there was a short but very statistically significant increase in temperature. It was not caused by the greenhouse effect. Look at charts from the internet.
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My Objective is to simulate the impact of climate change on maize yields in Isingiro District under future climate scenarios. 0.8435° S, and 30.8039° E
Where can I get the above R Scrit for simulation for RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 from?
Will be greatful if any one who has can share with me
regards
Wycliffe Tumwesigye
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Hi Wycliffe Tumwesigye here is a script to download data from CMIP6 or CMIP5 using Python that can be useful for you:
"""
! pip install esgf-pyclient==0.3.0
!pip install requests-cache==0.4.1
from pyesgf.search import SearchConnection
import os
import requests_cache
requests_cache.core.CachedSession
#from pyesgf.search import SearchConnection
#import os
#import pandas as pd
import requests
from tqdm import tqdm
import xarray as xr
#import requests_cache
requests_cache.core.CachedSession
lista_modelos= ['ACCESS-CM2','ACCESS-ESM1-5','AWI-CM-1-1-MR','BCC-CSM2-MR',
'CAMS-CSM1-0','CAS-ESM2-0','CMCC-CM2-SR5','CMCC-ESM2','CanESM5',
'EC-Earth3','EC-Earth3-Veg','EC-Earth3-Veg-LR','FGOALS-f3-L',
'GFDL-ESM4','IITM-ESM','INM-CM4-8','INM-CM5-0','IPSL-CM6A-LR',
'KACE-1-0-G','MIROC6','MPI-ESM1-2-HR','MPI-ESM1-2-LR','MRI-ESM2-0',
'NESM3']
conn = SearchConnection('https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/esg-search', distrib=True)
ctx = conn.new_context(project='CMIP6',
experiment_id=['historical'],
realm=['atmos'],
variable='uas',
frequency='mon',
source_type=['AOGCM'],
variant_label='r1i1p1f1',
source_id= lista_modelos
)
ctx.hit_count
ctx.facet_counts['source_id'].keys()
# Obtain urls lists
lista_urls=[]
for i in range(len(ctx.search())):
try:
result = ctx.search()[i]
print(result.dataset_id,'..............ok')
lista_urls.append(result)
except:
pass
print('-------------------------------')
print('Lista finales')
lista_urls
# Download the first model for example
tr=[x for x in lista_urls if lista_modelos[0] in x.dataset_id]
files = tr[0].file_context().search()
lista=[]
for i in range(len(files)):
lista.append(files[i].opendap_url)
print(lista)
ds = xr.open_mfdataset([x for x in lista], chunks={'time': 120}, combine='nested', concat_dim='time')
ds_mei=ds.where((ds.lon>=-90+360) & (ds.lon<=-60+360) &(ds.lat>=6) & (ds.lat<=25),drop=True)
ds_mei=ds_mei.sel(bnds=1)
# Plot example
data = ds_mei.uas[0,:,:]
print(type(data))
data.plot.contourf(levels=35,cmap='jet',add_colorbar=True, x='lon',y='lat');
# Write the netcdf to a route
ds_mei.to_netcdf('uas_'+lista_modelos[0]+'_Historical.nc',format='NETCDF3_64BIT', mode='w')
"""
I hope it helps
Best regards!
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Dears,
Climate change become increasingly an important global issue. How can we effectively mitigate its negative impact and make a stable growth in the world economy?
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Dear Takele Taye Desta,
In order to build a climate-resilient economy, the pro-environmental transformation of the classic brown growth linear economy of excess to a sustainable green zero-carbon growth and closed loop economy must be carried out efficiently and as quickly as possible. Whether the negative effects of the increasingly rapid global warming process can be avoided or reduced to a significant extent depends on the timeframe in which the aforementioned process of pro-environmental transformation of the economy is realised. The key issue is the period of the next few years. On the other hand, if this plan is not realised on a global scale within the current decade, it is unfortunately unlikely that the most negative scenario of developments and effects related to climate change will be avoided. In this negative scenario, before the end of the middle of the 21st century, the critical level of CO2 in the atmosphere may be exceeded, resulting in a significant acceleration of the progressive global warming process and the impossibility of reversing or even stopping it. Therefore, during this decade, mankind should implement as much as possible of the above-mentioned plan to carry out a pro-environmental transformation of the economy. The extent to which we reduce the scale of a future climate catastrophe and protect the climate, but also the biodiversity of natural ecosystems, protect the planet's biosphere, depends on this. The conditions under which future generations of people will live and the possibilities of life on planet Earth in general depend on this. For several decades, climatologists, biologists and ecologists have been reporting on the growing risk and scale of a global climate catastrophe, which, according to the latest results of predictive analyses of long-term climate change, may already occur at the end of this 21st century. However, these numerous warnings have been ignored and disregarded for many years in the world of politics and business. In the last few years, things have started to change a little positively on this issue. The number of articles dealing with the issue of climate change and the key role of human civilisation in this issue has increased. There has been an increase in the number of discussions and debates on this issue presented in various media. However, the scale of pro-environmental transformation of the economy, including the green transformation of energy, is still far too low. The level of pro-environmental state interventionism, pro-environmental awareness of citizens, development of green finance, development of emission-free energy sources, etc. is too low. I am conducting research in this area. I have described the key determinants for the necessary, smooth and rapid implementation of the pro-environmental transformation of the classic growth, brown, linear economy of excess to a sustainable, green, zero-carbon zero-growth and closed-cycle economy in my scientific work. I have described the issues outlined above in articles posted on my profile of this Research Gate portal. I invite you to collaborate with me on this important issue for the future of the planet's biosphere and climate.
Best regards,
Dariusz
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I came across a lot of peer-reviewed journal articles and most of the authors have concluded there is a climate change phenomena happening by applying Mann-Kendall Trend test on Hydro-Metrological variables (rainfall, temperature). It has to noted that Mann-Kendall is a statistical technique which on applied to dataset (including time series) shows whether there is a monotonic increasing or decreasing trend & whether that trend so arrived is statistically significant or not ?
My question is that how we can conclude the trend detected is due to climate change only without citing any physical process/phenomena (like Teleconnections) drives this change ?, that too based on Statistical test (Mann-Kendall) at a particular Level of significance (LOS).
The LOS applied is also statistically subjective and the value can vary from person to person?
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Climate change is a reality, but we must found a reference to be sur about the tendency of change. No one can explain which is the next step for climate change.
The statistical test can not respond to a dynamique change.
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When you look at discussions about human population, whether from the overpopulation point of view in particular or population dynamics view in general, they lead to policy actions and recommendations that appear to be independent of the traditional market structure structure(price, consumption, and production) that supports them, but the nature of markets seems to shape the nature of the population and population dynamics they encourage.
And this raises the relevant question once and for all:
Is the nature of human population dynamics dependent or independent of the nature of the traditional market structure dynamics that serves them?
I think that the nature of the population and its dynamics is dependent of the nature of the markets that serves them as they shape their nature, what do you think?
Are they independent? Yes or No, and why do you think so?
Are they dependent? Yes or No, and why do you think so?
What do you think?
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Dear Lucio,
I too believe that what you have described as the nature of human population dynamics is dependent on the nature of the dynamics of the traditional market structure that serves them. Well, in the short term (months and quarters) it is citizens who adjust their functioning to seasonal changes in the level of production, income, purchases made etc. In the medium term (several to sometimes a dozen years), changes in the rate of economic growth that take place as part of business cycles translate into changes in citizens' income and consumption levels, and this then influences citizens' decisions to start a family and have children. On the other hand, in the longer term (from several years to several decades), the long-term economic processes, the changing sectoral and industry structure of the economy, the significantly changing level of economic development, production, income, etc., translate into significant changes in the living standards of citizens and the prevailing purchasing, housing and living standards. Subsequently, these significant changes in the economic processes taking place, in economic development, including the public products and services offered by the state (education, health care, public utilities, social assistance) and consequently also in the living standards of citizens largely determine the fertility rate, housing standards, the product and service structure of purchases made, the length of the average life expectancy of citizens, possibly also the process of population ageing and other changes in the social structure. Consequently, there are correlations between economic development and structural changes realised in the medium and long term in markets and economic sectors and changes in citizens' living standards, changes in consumption standards, living conditions, economic decisions made, fertility levels, citizens' life expectancy, social processes, etc.
Regards,
Dariusz
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Any ideas? What do you think?
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Dear Lucio,
In my opinion, the economics of climate change and the economics of a perfect green market are reconcilable, but only in theory. I have described this in my articles. Unfortunately, from theory to reality is a very big gap in this field. For the time being, the process of carrying out a full pro-environmental transformation of the classic growth, brown, linear economy of excess to a sustainable, green, zero-carbon zero-growth and closed loop economy to create a zero-carbon economy, to halt the progressive process of global warming, to halt the over-consumption of natural resources, to halt the increase in environmental pollution is not possible with the current political, economic, financial, social, etc. realities. Therefore, in reality, the economics of climate change and the economics of a perfect green market are incompatible, despite the fact that it has been theoretically described how this can be achieved.
Thank you very much,
Best regards,
Dariusz
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Forest plays a great role in the domain of climate change. Field instruments are very important for studying forest ecology (Kindly see the VDO attached)
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Clinometer to measure height of trees, camera to photograph light entering sub canopy, traps to collect seeds, bags and jars for samples, tape measure to measure DBH, core sampler if doing dendrochronology, pisometer if determining water tables, gps locater, etc. :)
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Forests are the biodiversity wealth of natural ecosystems and a key factor in the wealth of the planet's biosphere. However, this natural wealth is rapidly being eroded by human civilisational activities. The scale of forest fires has been increasing in recent years. The increasing scale of forest fires is a result of the ongoing process of global warming. In some regions of the world, forests are also being burned in order to acquire more land for the cultivation of agricultural crops, which is usually carried out under predatory and unsustainable farming practices. It is well known that forests are one of the key factors in reducing the rate of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, an important factor in slowing down the greenhouse effect and consequently also in slowing down global warming. It is therefore essential to increase the scale of forest fire protection.
The following questions are therefore becoming increasingly topical:
How to protect forests from fires?
What is your opinion on this subject?
What do you think about this topic?
Please reply,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Regards,
Dariusz
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Remove all forest litter (dead branches from lower parts of trees). It provides the "fuel" for the next "wild" fire.
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Hi there,
would like to learn more about the development of camel/horse meat and dairy farming and its impact on the eco-balance (CO₂, Methane, and water consumption) in comparison to the traditional cattle industry?
Has it got the potential to disrupt the cattle industry, given the climate path ahead?
Cherish your feedback.
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As noted above, camels are not typically bred to produce meat, but certainly produce milk of high value to local communities. That fact that are managed in extensive grazing models, rather than intensively, means that they will inevitably contribute lower GHG emissions. But they are typically held as wealth assets and as a livelihood component, rather than for high productivity output. As such, they are not really comparable to conventional meat or dairy cattle.
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Dear researchers,
Can you please share your ideas on how artificial intelligence can help combating climate change?
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Have a look at the following RG link.
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Dear colleagues,
We are preparing a paper on climate change and migration, and have some budget earmarked for open access fees. However, the money needs to be spent in this calendar year. The journal we wanted to submit to can only send an invoice after the article has been accepted. And it usually takes a while before the reviews are in and the revision done. Hence my question: Does anyone know a suitable journal (topic-wise and with good impact) that allows paying open access fee before an article is accepted? Or does anybody have other advice that can be of use here?
Thank you and best wishes
Kees
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Springer has several options
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How can the pro-environmental transformation of agriculture be accelerated?
Agriculture is likely to change significantly in the future. Key determinants of agricultural change include factors such as climate change, including the progressive process of global warming. On the one hand, the main negative effects of the progressive global warming process include increasingly frequent and severe periods of heat and drought. In addition, by the end of this 21st century, all glaciers will have melted, water levels in the seas and oceans will have risen, and areas of arable land will have declined. On the other hand, in order to slow down the progressive process of global warming, it is necessary to urgently reduce the level of greenhouse gas emissions, including CO2 and methane. Climate change will cause a reduction in the scale of agricultural crop production. In order to feed the population, it will therefore be necessary to change dietary habits by switching agricultural crops to the production of plant-based agricultural crops to produce food primarily for humans rather than livestock. At present, globally, three quarters of arable land is used for the production of arable crops, from which fodder is produced to feed reared livestock. In addition to this, due to increasing global warming processes, it will be necessary to develop new crop varieties that are resistant to various biotic (viral, bacterial, fungal diseases, pests, etc.) and abiotic (droughts, heat, floods and other effects of climate change) negative environmental factors. In addition to this, the importance of achieving sustainability goals in agriculture will increase in the future. The generation of energy used in agriculture from renewable and emission-free energy sources will increase in importance. Consequently, environmentally neutral, emission-free, sustainable organic farming based mainly on crop production using new crop varieties that are resistant to progressive climate change and its effects will be developed in the future.
In view of the above, the following questions are becoming increasingly topical:
How should sustainable organic farming be developed?
How should sustainable, pro-environmental organic farming be developed?
How should environmentally neutral, emission-free, sustainable organic farming be developed?
What kind of agriculture should be developed to save humanity from a food crisis?
What type of agriculture should be developed to be environmentally neutral, meet sustainability goals, be resilient to climate change and provide food for people?
Is a combination of pro-environmental, sustainable organic agriculture and the development of new climate-resilient crop varieties the best solution?
How can the pro-environmental transformation of agriculture be accelerated?
What do you think about this?
What is your opinion on this topic?
Please reply,
I invite you all to discuss,
Thank you very much,
Greetings,
Dariusz
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Revered Professor Dr.Dariusz Prokopowicz,
It is very critical question to everyone to answer because the issues of Climate Change has becoming vigorous in some countries.
The future agriculture will be balanced by the potential areas will have good organic cultivation than harsh, harmful negative effects of the climate change in some countries.
The issues of the climate change may not be global problem right now but it could be one of the major problems in the 22nd century.
Most of the developing countries farmers are becoming vulnerable to manage their cultivation process due to the effect of climate change now a day.
Melting the ices and increasing the sea level and dislocation water bodies, animals are another threatening factor to deeply think about the issues of climate change.
Unless or otherwise any serious effective measures are to be taken against the climate change at global level that could be major problem which will teach a big lesson to the world of human beings in the future.
Prevention is better than cure. It is not only the Researchers, development practitioners worry but also the stakeholders have to think about it in the household level.
The developed countries have to think twice about this climate change issue than others. The agriculture may affect directly due to the effect of the climate change in the future definitely.
The alternatives like Precision agriculture, organic agriculture and conservative agriculture could support the farmers households somehow better than worse.
All these soil and water conservation measures could be implemented with serious watershed management approach and structures among the farming community but the main thing is to control the developed countries interventions on producing carbon CFC more than others.
The objectives of the capitalist countries have to achieve the target if producing the Refrigerators and Air conditioner without thinking the catastrophe of the humans and earth.
This is very pathetic condition to overcome the climate change issue successfully. It needs the collective efforts and thinking to stop against the climate change at macro level.
Agriculture will become question mark to produce the food for consumption. It is difficult to balance the food shortage among the countries in the future.
Agriculture sustainability in terms of foods that will be good sign of economic progress if any countries. Russia is the best example failed to concentrate on agriculture production and how the people managing for their consumption of food.
Sustainable agricultural development and reduce the effect of the climate change as the one if the SDGs 2030 but the serious measures have to be taken against the issue of climate change at global level.
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To what extent will the current uncertainties about fossil fuel energy supplies encourage or discourage the exploration for alternative energy sources. Given the abnormal climate occurrences over the past two decades, will this help to refocus minds and what might be the impact on countries for whom fossil fuels make up a substantial part of their GDP?
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Dear Dr. Jennings,
The philosopher´s stone to energy supply is the “energy mix”. Every type of energy has strong and weak points and the current political reality proves more than any conference this statement.
As far as the climate change and the human impact are concerned , the average of all sorts of natural precipitation and temperature measured over a significant long period of time at a certain area/ zone of the surface of the globe (= climate) is influenced by 4 spheres (from the crust to the core as follows) :
1. Atmosphere with the extra-terrestrial heat source called the sun (moderate to good knowledge) – rather stable during the “Anthropocene” (see also point 4)
2. Lithosphere with the radioactive decay of radioactive elements predominantly U, Th and Bi as the major heat source (moderate to good knowledge) – very stable during the “Anthropocene”
3. Asthenosphere the largest “Underfloor heating system of the globe”. Permanent turbulences –instable during the “Anthropocene” (poor knowledge to unknown)
4. The core responsible for the Earth´s magnetic field controlling orientation of living beings and acting as a protective shield from cosmic rays is very unstable – see the Race of the North Pole towards reversal- during the “Anthropocene” (very poor knowledge to unknown)
This question points to an equation with more than one unknown.
HGD
P.S. the term "Anthopocene" which is not yet accepted as a stratigraphic term is only used as the youngest period of time of Earth´s history.
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Hello,
I would like to make as broad as possible an inventory of all indices and indicators of vulnerability to climate change. Can you point me to articles or indicators that you know of to help me with this task !?
Thanks in advance !
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Serigne Mbacké Coly <May be, the following article will be a useful one for your research>
Bahinipati, C.S., Kumar, V., Viswanathan, P.K. and Kavya K (2021): “Estimation of district-wise livelihood vulnerability index for the four coastal states in India”, in: Indrajit Pal., Rajib Shaw., Riyanti Djalante & Sangam Shrestha (Eds.), Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Adaptation for Sustainable Development, Netherlands: Elsevier, pp. 459-488. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780323851954000081
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There is a new term in used today “Climate change economics”, and this seems to imply the existence of an environmentally friendly economic thinking, which raises the question is climate change economics green