Climate Change - Science topic

Dr Jamel Chahed Than thank you for your contribution to the discussion

Dr Jamel Chahed thank you for your contribution to the discussion

On Climate Models: From General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Earth System Models (ESMs). General Circulation Models (GCMs)which are the core of weather forecasting Models appeared in the 1960s with the pioneer's work of Manabe (2021 Nobel Prize in Physics). A fundamental point is that is difficult to speak about GCMs and even less of Climate Models without a minimum review starting from Atmosphere Dynamics Models genesis in the 1960s to the actual Earth System Models (ESMs) that participated in the last "CMIP6". These represent the State-of-art of universal knowledge about Climate and its modeling. The results published in 2021 covers 80 ESMs from as many research teams throughout the world. Nowadays, Climate Science and Modelling have attained an international critic-mass never reached in any other domain.

ESMs include a number of components that try to describe the evolution of intercoupled phenomena that govern Climate Phenomena. To understand how this works, one has to know about the progress achieved and still-opened questions related to Climate Models. Mathematically the resolution of the dynamic and the transport equations of physical quantities on more or less important scales provide accurate predetermination in a relatively short time. This is what meteorologists do to deliver us every day their newsletter. This is what the same meteorologists are trying to do with scientists from all sides to build climate models in the long term, sure inaccurate today, exactly as was the 1960s weather model of Manabe, Nobel Prize in Physics 2021, the pioneer of general circulation modeling. The very first general circulation models were based on atmosphere-only physical models (Manabe et al., 1965, Nobel Prize in Physics, 2021), which were quickly improved to take into account the hydrologic cycle and its role in the general circulation of the atmosphere (Smagorinsky et al. 1965). From there, climate modeling has made considerable progress by gradually integrating the many positive or negative feedback processes that occur at different scales between the different components of the system: ocean circulation (Manabe and Bryan, 1969), land hydrological processes (Sellers et al., 1986), sea ice dynamics (Meehl and Washington, 1995), and aerosols (Takemura et al., 2000), biophysical and biogeochemical processes (Cox et al., 2000). Models with these latter components are often called Earth System Models (ESMs) and more recent such models include land and ocean carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, dynamic vegetation, and other biogeochemical cycles (Watanabe et al., 2011, Collins et al., 2011). It should be noted that as a whole and for the same reasons, the horns of ESMs, which are based on physical formulations similar to those employed in general circulation models applied in meteorology, have not evolved much, except for the increase in the resolution of the calculations made possible thanks to the increase in the computing capacity or their capacity to assimilate increasingly abundant and precise data; in particular global satellite data, which complements and connects measurements on the ground or at low altitude.

Manabe, S., Smagorinsky, J., & Strickler, R. F. (1965). Simulated climatology of a general circulation model with a hydrologic cycle. Monthly Weather Review, 93(12), 769-798.

Smagorinsky, S. Manabe, and J. L. Holloway, “Numericd Results From a Nine-Level General Circulation Model of the Atmosphere,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 93, No. 12, Dec. 1965, pp. 727-768.

Manabe, S., & Bryan, K. (1969). Climate calculations with a combined ocean-atmosphere model. J. Atmos. Sci, 26(4), 786-789.

Sellers, P. J., Mintz, Y. C. S. Y., Sud, Y. E. A., & Dalcher, A. (1986). A simple biosphere model (SiB) for use within general circulation models. Journal of the atmospheric sciences, 43(6), 505-531.

Meehl, G. A., & Washington, W. M. (1995). Cloud albedo feedback and the super greenhouse effect in a global coupled GCM. Climate dynamics, 11(7), 399-411.

Takemura, T., Okamoto, H., Maruyama, Y., Numaguti, A., Higurashi, A., & Nakajima, T. (2000). Global three‐dimensional simulation of aerosol optical thickness distribution of various origins. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 105(D14), 17853-17873.

Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., Spall, S. A., & Totterdell, I. J. (2000). Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature, 408(6809), 184-187.

Watanabe, S., Hajima, T., Sudo, K., Nagashima, T., Takemura, T., Okajima, H., ... & Kawamiya, M. (2011). MIROC-ESM 2010: Model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments. Geoscientific Model Development, 4(4), 845-872.

Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Halloran, P., Hinton, T., ... & Woodward, S. (2011). Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model–HadGEM2. Geoscientific Model Development, 4(4), 1051-1075.

Besbes, M., & Chahed, J. (2023). Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia. Comptes Rendus. Géoscience, 355(S1), 1-22. Available on:

The relationship between atmospheric changes and global temperature change is not of a one-way cause-effect type. This kind of one-way reasoning, in one sense or another, is IMHO incomplete: just consider that changes in global temperatures (due to transfers at the interfaces lithosphere-hydrosphere-atmosphere) have, in their turn, direct effects on atmospheric changes via, evapotranspiration, photosynthetic activities, gases solubilities in the hydrosphere, partial pressures in the atmosphere. All these phenomena are physically well-described. All climate parameters, without exception, are interdependent and correlated in space and time and non-linear ways (depending on the initial conditions of all the variables at all points of the globe).

Here is the Table. What do we have in front? We have scientists who want to understand how this monster evolves and are struggling to make intercorrelations resulting from the laws of thermostatics valid in a laboratory situation on parameters averaged above all or part of the planet!

This said the nagging question would be: Is it admissible to describe even on average such a system from the point of view of thermostatics?

The subsidiary question would be: how and with what tools are we examining and analyzing these data to drive conclusions and interpretations? The fact that these analyses lead to numerous interpretations that are different is absolutely normal and mathematically expected. It shows at least one mathematically obvious truth.

The answer would be: This should lead us to admit that more fundamental research to develop mathematical tools is needed to improve our knowledge of the driving forces that control the climate in order to build more accurate meteorological and climate models. On the other hand, advances in the study of complex systems (which include GCMs and ESMs among others) have been rewarded with the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics.

Attached is a BOOK REVIEW by Ghislain de Marsily (Académie des Sciences, Paris) devoted to the fundamental Water-Food Nexus in the Arid Region taking Tunisia as an example. "National water security– Case study of an arid country, Tunisia (Authors: Besbes, Chahed Hamdane), Euro-Mediterranean Journal for Environmental Integration (2019) 4:11". The Previous French version of the book is available in chapters on:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356650449_Securite_Hydrique_de_la_Tunisie_Preface_Introduction https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356662490_Les_Problemes_de_l'Eau_dans_le_Monde

This is a short review of a book recently published by Springer entitled: National water security–Case study of an arid country, Tunisia; by Mustapha Besbes, Jamel Chahed, and Abdelkader Hamdane. It shows that around 40% of the water consumed in Tunisia is imported as virtual water, used in other countries to produce goods. Water security is thus strongly linked to food security, but includes protection of the resource from pollution, accidents, malicious acts, and anticipation of extreme hydrologic events. A detailed analysis is made of water consumed by agriculture for food production by both rain-fed and irrigated crops, from which a surprising conclusion can be drawn: the major part of Tunisian food production is provided by rain-fed agriculture. Therefore, optimizing the yield of rain-fed agriculture becomes a priority. Alternative water resources are also discussed, as well as water governance. Results can be integrated into the policy choices related to sustainable water management which should be made in the future in Tunisia, and other regions where water is scarce.

Stephen, thank you for commenting, My views and the reason for bringing to the attention this idea that bringing circularity to a linear problem without addressing the root cause of linearity or the broken circularity goes deeper than accounting principles as it comes from the inside the model, The root cause is distorted traditional market prices as they reflect and have always reflected only the economic costs of production at a profit. If markets are linear because they are based on distorted market prices, then making circular distorted market prices can not be the solution as the root cause is still in place and active..... As you know environmental cost internalization leads to green markets and to green market circularity as now the environmental issue is an endogenous and profit making issue.

In the coming years I will address views of great thinkers in the past from the sustainability point of view to highlight that as paradigm shifts take place, previous ideas are left behind or need to be adjusted due to the closing of paradigm shift knowledge gaps that are created and which is needed to be able to operate in the higher level paradigm.....It is a fact, traditional market thinking is inconsistent with green market thinking....For example, a shift to green market thinking affects ideas such as the working of corporations/monopolies and other market forms as green market entities or the ideas of pareto optimality or ideas like the Tobin tax or Q ratio as green concepts or the ideas of the thinkers you mentioned when looked from the distorted market price point of view.

In summary as related to the question here, addressing linearity by bringing external circularity leaving the internal root cause of linearity problem in place may give us the opportunity to see the environment collapsing in front of our eyes as the world pretends to do something.

I do appreciate your comment

Respectfully yours;

Lucio

Biodiversity can support efforts to reduce the negative effects of climate change. Conserved or restored habitats can remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, thus helping to address climate change by storing carbon. When some animals and plants encounter the impacts of climate change in their environment, they respond by changing behavior and moving to a cooler area, modifying their physical bodies to better deal with the heat, or altering the timing of certain activities to match changes in the seasons. The rise in global temperature, sea level, and extreme weather events can cause habitat loss, changes in the timing of seasonal events, and an increase in disease outbreaks, which can lead to the extinction of species. The shrinkage of glaciers, decreasing water flow of the perennial rivers depleting ground water level directly and indirectly affect the biodiversity of the sub- region. Some of the most immediate effects of recent climate change are becoming apparent through affects on biodiversity. Increased Biodiversity Extinction Risk: Climate change is exacerbating existing threats to biodiversity and climate goals of the country, such as habitat destruction and fragmentation, and increasing the risk of extinction for many species. The importance of biodiversity is that the more the biodiversity in species, individuals, and ecosystems, the more stable are those populations. As, greater genetic diversity within a single population is the reason that the population can better adapt to disturbances in weather, climate change, and diseases. Many animal and plant species are likely to become extinct as ecosystems adjust to climate change. While adaptable species will survive, and other migrates, the end result will be lost biodiversity. On land, higher temperatures have forced animals and plants to move to higher elevations or higher latitudes, many moving towards the Earth's poles, with far-reaching consequences for ecosystems. The risk of species extinction increases with every degree of warming.

Dr Gaurav H Tandon thank you for your contribution to the discussion

Dr Narendra Kumar Maurya thank you for your contribution to the discussion

Ocean temperature plays a key role in the conveyor belt, so a change in Earth's climate might have drastic effects on the system. If one part of the conveyor belt were to break down if cold water is not lifted to the surface in upwelling, for instance nutrients will not be distributed to start the food chain. Global climate change could disrupt the global conveyer belt, causing potentially drastic temperature changes in Europe and even worldwide. The global conveyor belt is a strong, but easily disrupted process. Research suggests that the conveyor belt may be affected by climate change. The conveyor belt is also a vital component of the global ocean nutrient and carbon dioxide cycles. Warm surface waters are depleted of nutrients and carbon dioxide, but they are enriched again as they travel through the conveyor belt as deep or bottom layers. There is some evidence to suggest that an increase in global temperature may reduce the amount of sea ice formation. A decrease in the amount of sea ice formation would reduce the formation of bottom water. The decreasing temperature and rising salt content makes the water denser, causing it to sink as it heads back south all while subtropical water keeps on heading north, continually fueling the conveyor. But that once-dependable process may be changing. The world is rapidly warming, particularly at the poles. If the currents were to stop completely, the average temperature of Europe would cool 5 to 10 degrees Celsius. There would also be impacts on fisheries and hurricanes in the region. The currents in the North Atlantic are part of a global pattern as thermohaline circulation, or the global ocean conveyor.The movement of water north and south throughout the Atlantic might be weakening due to climate change, which could become a problem. To help understand why, let's explore what drives large-scale ocean circulation. Winds and Earth's rotation create large-scale surface currents in the ocean. Rising water temperatures, acidification, and low oxygen levels can combine with natural ocean cycles to create extreme marine events. Marine heat waves, dead zones, and coral bleaching are just a few examples of these events, which are projected to become more common and severe. The ocean is a significant influence on Earth's weather and climate. The ocean covers 70% of the global surface. This great reservoir continuously exchanges heat, moisture, and carbon with the atmosphere, driving our weather patterns and influencing the slow, subtle changes in our climate. The rising temperature contributes to a rise in sea levels. Other effects include ocean acidification, sea ice decline, increased ocean stratification and reductions in oxygen levels. Rising temperatures in the oceans affect marine organisms. Corals are particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures and ocean acidification can make it harder for shellfish and corals in the upper ocean to form shells and hard skeletons. We have also seen changes in occurrence of marine algae blooms.

Rising temperatures increase the risk of irreversible loss of marine and coastal ecosystems. Today, widespread changes have been observed, including damage to coral reefs and mangroves that support ocean life, and migration of species to higher latitudes and altitudes where the water could be cooler. Climate change is causing some serious changes in oceans, including temperature increase, sea level rise, and acidification. Oceans are becoming more acidic as they absorb more CO2 from the atmosphere, and concurrently oxygen levels are decreasing. When surface waters are warmer, they don't mix as well with deep waters. By reducing Deep Sea “ventilation”, warming reduces the already low oxygen content, which naturally affects “intermediate” waters over wide regions of the tropical ocean.The ocean is a significant influence on Earth's weather and climate. The ocean covers 70% of the global surface. This great reservoir continuously exchanges heat, moisture, and carbon with the atmosphere, driving our weather patterns and influencing the slow, subtle changes in our climate. For eons, the world's oceans have been sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and releasing it again in a steady inhale and exhale. The ocean takes up carbon dioxide through photosynthesis by plant-like organisms, as well as by simple chemistry: carbon dioxide dissolves in water. The world's oceans already function as an enormous carbon sink, absorbing about one quarter of humanity's CO2 emissions. The new projects are pledging that they can amplify that ability, seemingly a godsend in a world plagued by runaway emissions, and with little time left to act.

Dear J.C. thank you for your take. Do you have a source for the 60l? If you come across one, happy to know about it.

Soil microbes can break down plant organic matter to carbon dioxide or convert it to dissolved organic carbon (DOC) compounds. This leads either to long-term carbon storage, because DOC can bind to soil particles, or to the release of carbon back to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. During the decomposition process, microorganisms convert the carbon structures of fresh residues into transformed carbon products in the soil. There are many different types of organic molecules in soil.Microbial residues play a particularly important role in SOM formation, which is embedded in the trilateral interrelationship between soil, plants, and microorganisms. Plant-derived material is processed by microorganisms into microbial biomass and finally necromass. The microbe uses this energy to change carbon dioxide gas from the air and the water around them into a sugar called glucose. The sugar is either transported to other cells and used as food or stored as insoluble starch. This process is called photosynthesis. The gas oxygen is released as a waste product. Beneficial soil microbes perform fundamental functions such as nutrient cycling, breaking down crop residues, and stimulating plant growth. While the role of microbes to maintain soil health and contribute to crop performance is clear, the soil biological component is extremely difficult to observe and manage. Microbes are critical in the process of breaking down and transforming dead organic material into forms that can be reused by other organisms. This is why the microbial enzyme systems involved are viewed as key 'engines' that drives the Earth's biogeochemical cycles. Rising temperatures increase the risk of irreversible loss of marine and coastal ecosystems. Today, widespread changes have been observed, including damage to coral reefs and mangroves that support ocean life, and migration of species to higher latitudes and altitudes where the water could be cooler.Humans and wild animals face new challenges for survival because of climate change. More frequent and intense drought, storms, heat waves, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and warming oceans can directly harm animals, destroy the places they live, and wreak havoc on people's livelihoods and communities.Climate change can alter where species live, how they interact, and the timing of biological events, which could fundamentally transform current ecosystems and food webs. Climate change can overwhelm the capacity of ecosystems to mitigate extreme events and disturbance, such as wildfires, floods, and drought.

Termites play a significant role in the ecosystem's balance when they feed on dead wood. This ecological process is known as cellulose decomposition, and it has several important implications:

It's important to note that not all termites are destructive pests that damage structures and living trees. Many termite species primarily feed on dead and decaying wood, contributing positively to ecosystem processes. However, a few termite species are considered pests that can cause significant damage to buildings and crops. Proper identification and management are essential to distinguish between beneficial and harmful termite species.

The emission of air pollutants from fossil fuel combustion is the major cause of urban air pollution. Burning fossil fuels is also the main contributor to the emission of greenhouse gases. Diverse water pollution problems are associated with energy usage. One problem is oil spills. Non-renewable energy resources release harmful greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, creating the greenhouse effect which causes global warming. Non-renewable energy sources are also harmful pollutants and lead to habitat destruction. The production of some photovoltaic (PV) cells, for instance, generates toxic substances that may contaminate water resources. Renewable energy installations can also disrupt land use and wildlife habitat, and some technologies consume significant quantities of water. Despite the negative impact on wildlife, renewable energy still positively impacts the climate and the air. It fosters a stronger ecosystem because it is clean. The production of this electricity also has no impact on the environment. Unlike fossil fuels, renewable energy creation doesn't harm the ecosystem. Renewable resources are jeopardized by unregulated industrial expansion and growth. They must be carefully controlled to safeguard them beyond the capacity of the natural world to replenish them. A life cycle evaluation is a strategy for methodically analysing renewability. Using renewable energy can lead to several social impacts, including poverty elimination, climate change mitigation, and improving health by reducing pollution associated with gas emissions. The costs include: infrastructure investment, day-to-day operations, market costs of supply and the environmental costs of the different energy sources. The International Renewable Energy Agency's 2021 Renewable Energy and Jobs annual review projects that global renewable energy jobs will increase from 12 million in 2020 to 38 million by 2030 and 43 million by 2050. Although India has made progress in developing its renewable energy sector, it still faces obstacles. Off-taker risk, lack of infrastructure, lack of financial intermediaries, and lack of investor understanding are the top four challenges to overcome. One of the main environmental risks of renewable energy is the impact on land use and habitat loss. Wind and solar farms require large areas of land to generate enough electricity, which can displace wildlife, reduce biodiversity, and affect ecosystem services. The environmental impacts related to energy production include climate change, acidification, impacts on waterways, and waste production. Some common environmental and energy efficiency issues include global warming, air pollution, waste disposal, water pollution, climate change, deforestation, over population and a lot more . The direct environmental impacts of resource use include the degradation of fertile land, water shortages, waste generation, toxic pollution, and biodiversity loss in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. Renewable energy sources which are available in abundance all around us, provided by the sun, wind, water, waste, and heat from the Earth are replenished by nature and emit little to no greenhouse gases or pollutants into the air. The effects of climate change are quickly escalating due to excess greenhouse gasses in our atmosphere that are trapping in excess heat from the sun. A way to reduce emissions and save our planet would be to would be to change our energy sources and switch to renewable energy sources. Solar produces less life-cycle GHG emissions than conventional fossil fuel energy sources. While there may be some GHG emissions produced during the manufacturing and recycling of the solar system, the generation of energy results in zero GHG emissions and zero environmental impact.

Fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and gas, are by far the largest contributor to global climate change, accounting for over 75 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions. These have been caused by many natural factors, including changes in the sun, emissions from volcanoes, variations in Earth's orbit and levels of carbon dioxide (CO2). Human activities are responsible for almost all of the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the last 150 years. The largest source of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities in the United States is from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation. When fossil fuels are burned, they release large amounts of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, into the air. Greenhouse gases trap heat in our atmosphere, causing global warming. Already the average global temperature has increased by 10C.Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns, mainly caused by human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels. Renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, emit little to no greenhouse gases, are readily available and in most cases cheaper than coal, oil or gas. The energy sector is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change. In turn, changes in climate can disrupt energy networks themselves, stress infrastructure, and pose safety risks to people.Generating renewable energy creates far lower emissions than burning fossil fuels. Transitioning from fossil fuels, which currently account for the lion's share of emissions, to renewable energy is key to addressing the climate crisis. Although renewable energy sources produce relatively low levels of GHG emissions and conventional air pollution, manufacturing and transporting them will produce some emissions and pollutants. The production of some photovoltaic (PV) cells, for instance, generates toxic substances that may contaminate water resources.The biggest dark side of renewable energy is likely the amount of space it requires. Each solar farm can produce about 357,000 kWh per acre, but the United States' electricity uses around 4,000 billion kWh each year. So, that country would need to use 11 million acres to get all of our electricity from solar panels. Renewable energy sources generate most of their energy at certain times of the day. Its electricity generation does not match with the peak demand hours. The intermittency of sunshine and wind cannot provide an on-demand power source 24 hours a week. Solar energy and wind are unpredictable. While renewable energy waste may be composed of less toxic substances than fossil fuel by-products, they are still a hazard to the environment. There is increasing concern regarding what happens with these materials when they are no longer viable, especially since they are difficult to recycle. Although India has made progress in developing its renewable energy sector, it still faces obstacles. Off-taker risk, lack of infrastructure, lack of financial intermediaries, and lack of investor understanding are the top four challenges to overcome.

Thomas good day! Thank you for taking the time to write. Keep in mind, in 2012 Rio +20 the world, including the corporate world, all seem united going green markets, green economies, and green growth until quietly they went dwarf green markets, dwarf green economics and dwarf green growth.

What do you about the question now that we are in a world under dwarf green markets: What comes next after the fall of dwarf green markets, green marxism or green markets? What do you think is coming even in this divided environment. What do you think may come next?

Note: If you take a look at the nature of covid 19 pandemic and the actual response you will get the idea that if there is a threat to the survival of the rich/the supply side of the market where they can not disentangle from the threat, then extreme solutions/approaches are possible, and then they need to decide which unpalatable solution among those two is better for them.

Some of the key soil microbes involved in carbon sequestration include: Mycorrhizal fungi: These fungi form mutualistic relationships with plant roots, helping plants to absorb nutrients and water from the soil. They also play a role in carbon sequestration by increasing the amount of carbon stored in the soil. However, the relationship between microorganisms and climate change is a two-way road, since microorganisms can directly affect climate change due to their involvement in greenhouse gas (GHG) synthesis and consumption, but they are part of the solution by acting as mitigation agents, and also their biodiversity. Microbes are involved in many processes, including the carbon and nitrogen cycles, and are responsible for both using and producing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. Microbes can have positive and negative responses to temperature, making them an important component of climate change models. Microbes are adept at utilizing various compounds and methods as energy sources. In fact, microbes are responsible for the majority of photosynthesis on Earth, a process that removes carbon from the atmosphere and generates oxygen as a byproduct. Soil microbes can break down plant organic matter to carbon dioxide or convert it to dissolved organic carbon (DOC) compounds. This leads either to long-term carbon storage, because DOC can bind to soil particles, or to the release of carbon back to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. The carbon cycle in microorganisms is part of a larger cycling of carbon that occurs on the global scale. The actions of microorganisms help extract carbon from non-living sources and make the carbon available to living organisms.Climate change induces alterations in soil microbial communities. Bacteria (red), archaea (blue), and fungal hyphae (green) in the center are impacted by changes in temperature, precipitation, storms, soil organic carbon (SOC), and greenhouse gases. Beneficial microbes such as rhizobacteria and mycorrhizal fungi can help plants to 'deal' with pathogens and herbivorous insects as well as to tolerate abiotic stress. Microorganisms have several vital roles in ecosystems: decomposition, oxygen production, evolution, and symbiotic relationships. Decomposition is where dead animal or plant matter is broken down into more basic molecules. Without microbial decomposer communities, life would be smothered in dead organisms. Microorganisms also carry out almost half of the photosynthesis on our planet, increasing oxygen levels and lowering carbon dioxide. The carbon sources were acetate (CH3COO-), glucose (C6H12O6), pyruvate (CH3COCO2H), glyco- late (C2H4O3) and L-amino acids (H2NCHRCOOH, were R is an organic substituent). These carbon sources have a proven importance for the growth of bacteria. Carbon dioxide is effective for extending the shelf-life of perishable foods by retarding bacterial growth. The overall effect of carbon dioxide is to increase both the lag phase and the generation time of spoilage microorganisms; however, the specific mechanism for the bacteriostatic effect is not known.

Excerpt from: Besbes, M., Chahed, J., Hamdane, A., & De Marsily, G. (2010). Changing water resources and food supply in arid zones: Tunisia. Water and Sustainability in Arid Regions: Bridging the Gap Between Physical and Social Sciences, 103-121. Available on:

Dr Vincent Oyareme and Dr Gaurav H Tandon thank you for your contribution to the discussion

Dr Gaurav H Tandon thank you for your contribution to the discussion

Dr Gaurav H Tandon thank you for your contribution to the discussion

Dr Gaurav H Tandon thank you for your contribution to the discussion

Dr Mohsen Khosravi thank you for your contribution to the discussion

Dr Mohsen Khosravi thank you for your contribution to the discussion

Dariusz Prokopowicz ,

There have been so many predictions of the effects of global warmings that it is imoossible to tell if the effects of global warming are greater than expected. For instance the The annual Arctic sea ice melt has stopped increasing whereas the Antarctic sea ice has stopped increasing and is now hitting record lows. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

But the number of wild fires and hurricanes etc. does seem to be increasing in intensity.

Renewable energy can play a significant role in reducing climate change, as it is closely linked to the Earth's climate through the greenhouse gas effect and the energy sector's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions.

In summary, renewable energy can reduce climate change by lowering greenhouse gas emissions associated with energy production and consumption. The Earth's climate is closely tied to energy through the emissions of greenhouse gases, and a shift toward renewable energy sources is a critical step in mitigating climate change and creating a more sustainable energy future.

Dr Murtadha Shukur thank you for your contribution to the discussion

Incorporating climate change education into national curricula can be challenging for a variety of reasons, many of which are rooted in political, social, and logistical factors. Here are some key reasons why it can be difficult:

Despite these challenges, many countries and regions are making efforts to integrate climate change education into their curricula. It often requires a combination of political will, public support, teacher training, curriculum development, and community engagement to successfully address these challenges and promote climate literacy among future generations. Additionally, international organizations and initiatives, such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, can play a role in encouraging and supporting climate education efforts on a global scale.

For simulating runoff due to climate change, the SWAT model is generally more suitable.

IHACRES is more focused on rainfall-runoff modeling and may not be as comprehensive for climate change impact assessments at a watershed scale.

Mario Stipčević, I think it is just you. Perhaps start out finding evidence for your claims before you demand it from others.

Climate change is projected to reduce wheat yield by 19.3% in 2050 and 40% in 2080 scenarios towards the end of the century with significant spatial and temporal variations. Climate change is projected to reduce the kharif maize yields by 18 and 23% in 2050 and 2080 scenarios, respectively. Critical challenges that agriculture sector would face in the event of climate change are (i) water availability as result of changing rainfall patterns, alteration in stream flow and increase in crop water demand (ii) deterioration of water quality due to sea water intrusion, transport of salts from the deeper soil . Climate change is a serious threat to agriculture and food security. Extreme weather conditions and changing patterns of precipitation lead to a decrease in the crop productivity. High temperatures and uncertain rainfall decrease the grain yield of crops by reducing the length of growing period.The increasing pressure of population on land is an important demographic factor responsible for low yield in agriculture. In India, too many people depend on agriculture. Almost two third of our labor force depends on agriculture. Increasing pressure on land has leads to the fragmentation of land holdings. Reduced agricultural yield is due to factors like an increase in temperature, changes in precipitation patterns, changes in extreme weather events, and reductions in water availability. A decline in food production in recent years due to climate change could severely affect revenue from the agricultural sector. High temperatures, changing precipitation levels, and extreme weather conditions such as droughts, floods, cyclones, etc. will reduce agricultural productivity. Unsustainable agricultural practices lead to soil erosion, eventually leading to a drastic loss in yields. Reduced grain and forage quality can reduce the ability of pasture and rangeland to support grazing livestock. More extreme temperature and precipitation can prevent crops from growing. Extreme events, especially floods and droughts, can harm crops and reduce yields. This climate change leads to higher temperatures and unanticipated rainfall across the country, resulting in reduced crop yields and overall food production. Due to the rise in temperature and changes in water availability, climate change can affect irrigated agricultural production throughout Agro-ecological zones.

Dear Doctor

Go To

Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

Luke Kempa , Chi Xuc ,Joanna Depledged , Kristie L. Ebie , Goodwin Gibbinsf, Timothy A. Kohlerg,, Johan Rockstrom€ , Marten Schefferk , Hans Joachim Schellnhuberj, Will Steffenm , and Timothy M. Lentonn

PNAS 2022 Vol. 119 No. 34 e2108146119

"Prudent risk management requires consideration of badto-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-toworst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climatetriggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers— be usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.

Conclusions There is ample evidence that climate change could become catastrophic. We could enter such “endgames” at even modest levels of warming. Understanding extreme risks is important for robust decision-making, from preparation to consideration of emergency responses. This requires exploring not just higher temperature scenarios but also the potential for climate change impacts to contribute to systemic risk and other cascades. We suggest that it is time to seriously scrutinize the best way to expand our research horizons to cover this field. The proposed “Climate Endgame” research agenda provides one way to navigate this under-studied area. Facing a future of accelerating climate change while blind to worst-case scenarios is naive risk management at best and fatally foolish at worst."

There is no path to protecting the climate without dramatically changing how we produce and use electricity: nearly 40% of US CO2 pollution comes from power plants burning fossil fuels. But we can turn things around. Renewable energy minimizes carbon pollution and has a much lower impact on our environment. Transitioning to renewable energy, and reducing reliance on fossil fuels, is one way to help slow down the effects of climate change. While renewable used to be a more expensive option, new clean energy technologies are lowering costs and helping to move economies away from fossil fuels. Renewable means that the energy won't run out and includes solar, hydro and wind energy. Renewable energy sources are incredibly important because they don't emit the greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming and climate change. Renewable energy sources are much cleaner than fossil fuels and, in some cases, like solar and wind power; they are totally clean sources of energy. Some resources will practically never run out. These are known as renewable resources. Renewable resources also produce clean energy, meaning less pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to climate change. They differ from fossil fuels principally in their diversity, abundance and potential for use anywhere on the planet, but above all in that they produce neither greenhouse gases which cause climate change nor polluting emissions. First of all, it is never going to end, we can use them for a long time and various purposes. Also, they generate energy in a large amount and efficiently. The most important benefit of renewable energy is that it is eco-friendly and don't contribute to environmental pollution. Solar energy is the most abundant of all energy resources and can even be harnessed in cloudy weather. The rate at which solar energy is intercepted by the Earth is about 10,000 times greater than the rate at which humankind consumes energy. Renewable energy in the future is predicted that by 2024, solar capacity in the world will grow by 600 gigawatts (GW), almost double the installed total electricity capacity of Japan. Overall, renewable electricity is predicted to grow by 1 200 GW by 2024, the equivalent of the total electricity capacity of the US. Renewable energy is energy that has been derived from earth's natural resources that are not finite or exhaustible, such as wind and sunlight. Renewable energy is an alternative to the traditional energy that relies on fossil fuels, and it tends to be much less harmful to the environment. India is also embracing the power of renewable energy. It has already announced its aim to reach net zero emissions by 2070. Furthermore, according to the Ministry of Power, the country is likely to meet 62% of its electricity requirements with 500 GW of non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.

Agriculture contributes to a number larger of environmental issues that cause environmental degradation including: climate change, deforestation, biodiversity loss, dead zones, genetic engineering, irrigation problems, pollutants, soil degradation, and waste. Average farm size, poor infrastructure, low use of farm technologies and best farming techniques, decrease of soil fertility due to over fertilization and sustained pesticide use, are leading contributors to low agricultural productivity. There are many marginal and small farmers in India. Lands are small, landholdings are fragmented, and the average size of landholding is shrinking. In India's agricultural sector, there is massive under-employment, particularly in the un-irrigated tracts. Erosion of soil by heavy rain, floods, insufficient vegetation cover etc., reduces farm productivity. Inadequate irrigation facilities and poor management of water resources have led to a great decline in agricultural productivity. This climate change leads to higher temperatures and unanticipated rainfall across the country, resulting in reduced crop yields and overall food production. Due to the rise in temperature and changes in water availability, climate change can affect irrigated agricultural production throughout Agro-ecological zones.

Renewable energy sources which are available in abundance all around us, provided by the sun, wind, water, waste, and heat from the Earth are replenished by nature and emit little to no greenhouse gases or pollutants into the air. Renewable energy and electrification alone can deliver 75% of energy-related CO2 emissions reductions needed. Renewable and energy efficiency, boosted by substantial electrification, can provide over 90% of the necessary reductions in energy-related carbon emissions. Renewable energy is widely viewed as playing a central role in climate change mitigation and a clean energy transition. Most kinds of renewable energy are also “carbon-free”: they do not emit CO2 or other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. However, it is also important to consider how these resources can be used long term. Some resources will practically never run out. These are known as renewable resources. Renewable resources also produce clean energy, meaning less pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to climate change. Of all the renewable energy sources that exist, the most pollution is created from biomass. The burning of wood, solid waste, and leftover plant life used in food production, can create significant air pollution. Although renewable energy sources have major advantages over fossil fuels, they also raise some environmental concerns. Many renewable energy technologies are ready for accelerated deployment, but research and development are still needed to reduce their environmental impacts. They differ from fossil fuels principally in their diversity, abundance and potential for use anywhere on the planet, but above all in that they produce neither greenhouse gases which cause climate change nor polluting emissions. Primary goals of sustainability are to achieve gender equality, end of poverty and hunger; better standards of education and healthcare mainly as it pertains to water quality and better sanitation, and sustainable economic growth while promoting jobs and stronger economies.The four main types of alternative energy sources are harnessed from natural processes such as water, wind, and sunlight. They are the most sustainable forms of energy. Sunlight is one of the main renewable sources of energy we know of today.

Yes, federal policies on climate change can play a significant role in reducing carbon emissions and addressing the challenges associated with global warming. Governments around the world, including federal agencies, often implement a range of policies and regulations aimed at mitigating climate change and transitioning to a low-carbon or carbon-neutral economy. These policies can take various forms and target different sectors of the economy. Here are some ways in which federal policies can help reduce carbon emissions:

It's important to note that the effectiveness of federal policies in reducing carbon emissions can depend on various factors, including the specific policy design, political support, public engagement, economic conditions, and technological advancements. Comprehensive and well-coordinated policies across different sectors of the economy are often necessary to achieve significant emissions reductions and effectively address climate change.

No, Sun can influence Earth's climate, but it isn't responsible for the warming trend we've seen over recent decades. The Sun is a giver of life; it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. We know subtle changes in Earth's orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the ice ages. A warming of the planet due to an increase in solar irradiance probably results in the release of methane and carbon dioxide from stores in the oceans and icecaps, and these greenhouse gases can then produce additional warming. Generating electricity and heat by burning fossil fuels causes a large chunk of global emissions. Most electricity is still generated by burning coal, oil, or gas, which produces carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide – powerful greenhouse gases that blanket the Earth and trap the sun's heat. The Earth's climate system depends entirely on the Sun for its energy. Solar radiation warms the atmosphere and is fundamental to atmospheric composition, while the distribution of solar heating across the planet produces global wind patterns and contributes to the formation of clouds, storms, and rainfall. Over the course of Earth's existence, volcanic eruptions, fluctuations in solar radiation, tectonic shifts, and even small changes in our orbit have all had observable effects on planetary warming and cooling patterns.Natural forcing that can contribute to climate change include: Solar irradiance changing energy from the sun has affected the temperature of Earth in the past. However, we have not seen anything strong enough to change our climate. These have been caused by many natural factors, including changes in the sun, emissions from volcanoes, variations in Earth's orbit and levels of carbon dioxide (CO2). There are both natural and human-caused greenhouse gases. Natural sources include respiration and decomposition of plants and ocean release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Many natural GHGs occur naturally in the atmosphere, such as water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.Greenhouse gases' are crucial to keeping our planet at a suitable temperature for life. Without the natural greenhouse effect, the heat emitted by the Earth would simply pass outwards from the Earth's surface into space and the Earth would have an average temperature of about -20°C.

Some of our related publications on Bangladesh:

1. Migration and climate change https://doi.org/10.3390/su8121223

2. Resilience and cyclones https://doi.org/10.3390/su8080805

3. Migration to India https://doi.org/10.1111/apv.12156

4. Warning and cyclones https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-12-2017-0318

5. Resilience to flash floods https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.06.011

6. Livelihood Impacts of Flash Floods https://doi.org/10.1177/028072701903700304

7. Indigenous responses to drought https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2018.11.004

And a blog on cost-benefit analysis http://news.trust.org/item/20161013115243-3s6eq

Appropriate framing for climate change and disasters:

(a) https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-02-2017-0043

(b) https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-015-0046-5

(c) https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-015-0038-5

(d) https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2294-0

(e) https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-Disaster-Risk-Reduction-Including-Climate-Change/Kelman-Mercer-Gaillard/p/book/9781138924567

(f) http://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i4.729

Dr Mike Bilio thank you for your contribution to the discussion

Restoring and protecting nature is one of the greatest strategies for tackling climate change, but not just for the obvious reason that it sucks carbon out the air. Forests, wetlands, and other ecosystems act as buffers against extreme weather, protecting houses, crops, water supplies and vital infrastructure. Terrestrial and marine ecosystems play an important role in regulating climate. They currently absorb roughly half of man-made carbon emissions. Biodiversity and ecosystem services help us to adapt to and mitigate climate change. They are therefore a crucial part of our effort to combat climate change. Climate change can alter where species live, how they interact, and the timing of biological events, which could fundamentally transform current ecosystems and food webs. Climate change can overwhelm the capacity of ecosystems to mitigate extreme events and disturbance, such as wildfires, floods, and drought. The most vulnerable ecosystems include coastal ecosystems, alpine areas, rainforests, fragmented terrestrial ecosystems and areas vulnerable to fire or low freshwater availability. Turn down the heat, use a programmable or smart thermostat if you can, and keep blinds closed. Turn down your water heater to 120 degrees, Remember what your parents told you: turn off lights and appliances when you are not using them. Unplug if possible to reduce even more energy. The main driver of climate change is the greenhouse effect. Some gases in the Earth's atmosphere act a bit like the glass in a greenhouse, trapping the sun's heat and stopping it from leaking back into space and causing global warming. Since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have released large amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which has changed the earth's climate. Natural processes, such as changes in the sun's energy and volcanic eruptions, also affect the earth's climate.

Climate change is affecting some of the critical services that ecosystems provide to society. As, ecosystems provide a bounty of food to people. Climate changes, like drought and heat, could affect the availability and quality of some foods, as well as farmers' ability to grow certain crops. Impacts of climate change on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate water flows. Rapid changes to ecosystems may cause the displacement or loss of many species. Timing of biological events is shifting, affecting species and habitats. Climate resilience is about successfully coping with and managing the impacts of climate change while preventing those impacts from growing worse. A climate resilient society would be low-carbon and equipped to deal with the realities of a warmer world. However, the elements which influence ecosystem resilience are complicated. As various elements such as the water cycle, fertility, biodiversity, plant diversity and climate, interact fiercely and affect different systems.Maintaining and restoring the diversity of local tree species increases forest resilience to the effects of climate change, and helps maintain their ecosystem services, as recommended by the EU Forest Strategy. The loss of an ecosystem's ability to recover from a disturbance whether due to natural events such as hurricanes or volcanic eruptions or due to human influences such as overfishing and pollution endangers the benefits that humans derive from that ecosystem. Some ecosystems are better at resisting change than others, and therefore have high resistance. Resilience is the ability and rate of an ecosystem to recover from a disturbance and return to its pre-disturbed state. Impacts of climate change on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate water flows. Rapid changes to ecosystems may cause the displacement or loss of many species. Timing of biological events is shifting, affecting species and habitats. Burning fossil fuels, cutting down forests and farming livestock are increasingly influencing the climate and the earth's temperature. This adds enormous amounts of greenhouse gases to those naturally occurring in the atmosphere, increasing the greenhouse effect and global warming. Various factors can cause a change in an ecosystem. These changes include climate, habitat, invasion, pollution, invasive species, over-exploitation, and pollution. When environmental conditions change, the kind of animals and plants found here also change. They include factors such as light, radiation, temperature, water, chemicals, gases, wind and soil. In some environments, such as marine environments, pressure and sound can be important abiotic components.

The farmers are faced with decisions on adaptation strategies such as sowing multiple crops in a single season to increase productivity, planting drought-resistant crops that can withstand periods of water scarcity, producing crops that mature early, changing the planting and harvesting dates according to the monsoons. India's domestic policy on climate and environmental action includes protecting regional glaciers, greening the railway system , reducing single-use plastic and producing clean cooking fuel . A higher frequency of extreme weather events like floods, droughts, and heat waves can reduce the overall crop yield and lower the quality significantly. High temperatures encourage weeds and pests that eventually leads to reduced crop productivity. We need to cut man-made greenhouse gas emissions drastically, phase out fossil fuels and move to renewable energy. We need to be more efficient and use less energy, and we need to tackle deforestation and eat less meat. Agriculture contributes to a number larger of environmental issues that cause environmental degradation including: climate change, deforestation, biodiversity loss, dead zones, genetic engineering, irrigation problems, pollutants, soil degradation, and waste. Climate change has the potential to limit the access, availability, and quality of food. Reduced agricultural yield is due to factors like an increase in temperature, changes in precipitation patterns, changes in extreme weather events, and reductions in water availability. Changing our main energy sources to clean and renewable energy is the best way to stop using fossil fuels. These include technologies like solar, wind, wave, tidal and geothermal power. Switch to sustainable transport. Petrol and diesel vehicles, planes and ships use fossil fuels. Several adaptation strategies such as heat- and water stress-tolerant crop varieties, stress-tolerant new crops, improved agronomic management practices, improved water use efficiency, conservation agriculture practices and improved pest management, improved weather forecasts, and other climate services. Alternative energy using alternative energy such as solar, wind or tidal can reduce the use of fossil fuels. This will reduce the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. Climate change can affect agriculture in a variety of ways. Beyond a certain range of temperatures, warming tends to reduce yields because crops speed through their development, producing less grain in the process and higher temperatures also interfere with the ability of plants to get and use moisture.

Climate is an important environmental influence on ecosystems. Changing climate affects ecosystems in a variety of ways. For instance, warming may force species to migrate to higher latitudes or higher elevations where temperatures are more conducive to their survival. Climate is the single most important factor determining the geographic distributions of species and major vegetation types. It also influences the properties of ecosystems and the flows of energy and materials through them. The important climatic factors of a region are rainfall, atmospheric humidity, wind, temperature, and light. Of these climatic factors each one individually contributes to the general and overall effect of climate by influencing the life processes of plants which constitute the vegetation. Adaptation includes things like reenforcing the electric grid to better withstand extreme weather; investing in better housing and infrastructure in areas hard-hit by flooding or sea level rise; planting trees to reduce extreme heat in cities; and putting air conditioning in schools. Estimates show a 15% decrease in outdoor working capacity during daylight hours due to extreme heat by 2050,” the study found. “The increased heat is expected to cost India 2.8% and 8.7% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and depressed living standards by 2050 and 2100, respectively. This section uses the most up to date climate science models to describe how climate change will affect temperature and precipitation trends in India. The research shows that on a high carbon pathway, temperatures in India could increase by as much as 1.8°C by 2050. On a low carbon pathway this drops to 1.2°C.Without climate change, crop production in India is set to rise by as much as 60 percent by the 2050s. However, as per a World Bank report titled 'Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience', if climate change continues as is, this could lead to a 12 percent drop in this number. Climate controls how plants grow, how animals behave, which organisms thrive, and how they all interact with the physical environment. As habitats experience different temperatures, precipitation patterns, and other changes, the organisms that make up ecosystems feel the effects. Climate change conditions such as increase in atmospheric temperature and carbon dioxide concentration directly affect availability of biomass energy, food, fiber and other ecosystem services.

Changes in climate can be expected to have significant impacts on crop yields through changes in temperature and water availability. The purpose of mitigation and adaptation measures is therefore to attempt a gradual reversal of the effects caused by climate change and sustain development. Mitigation measures are those actions that are taken to reduce and curb greenhouse gas emissions, while adaptation measures are based on reducing vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Mitigation, therefore, attends to the causes of climate change, while adaptation addresses its impacts. Agricultural adaptation strategies to climate change take a wide range of forms that include: planting drought-tolerant crops, early planting, crop diversification, rainwater harvesting, market responses, such as income diversification and credit schemes, developing meteorological forecasting capability, and improving livelihoods. A risk mitigation strategy takes into account not only the priorities and protection of mission-critical data of each organization, but any risks that might arise due to the nature of the field or geographic location. A risk mitigation strategy must also factor in an organization's employees and their needs. Communities can adapt by building water storage systems, creating regulations to keep water safe, and using desalination technology to create freshwater in coastal areas prone to drought. Major strategies of adaptation to climate change include water saving technologies such as in-situ and ex-situ moisture conservation, water harvesting for supplemental irrigation, residue incorporation, growing tolerant crop varieties, conservation agriculture, site specific nutrient management. Millets and quinoa thus could grow and would produce optimal yield as compared to others under harsh climatic conditions such as low rainfall, drought, salinity, low fertility, and lower moisture conditions. Climate-resilient crops are crops and crop varieties that have enhanced tolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses.

Johann HUMER In my perspective, the thicker the Greenhouse Effect (GE) the higher the atmospheric temperature rises, since the Greenhouse Effect can easily be penetrated by light radiating from our star, the Sun, but GE won't let this light radiating from the Sun be deflected back where it originated. Therefore: the rising and declining of atmospheric temperature/s is directly proportional to the thickness or thinness of the Greenhouse Effect layer in the outer space. Hope this makes sense to the readers.

Climate Resilience and Sustainability is an interdisciplinary Open Access journal focused on research and practical experience of solutions that address the socioeconomic and biophysical impacts of climate change and lead to a sustainable and resilient environment, society and economy. Striving for Climate Resilient Development means reducing exposure and vulnerability to climate hazards, cutting back greenhouse gas emissions and conserving biodiversity are given the highest priorities in everyday decision-making and policies on all aspects of society including energy, industry, health, water, food. A combination of nature-based solutions and building improvements, like planting street trees and installing green roofs, can help mitigate extreme heat. Actions like these are especially important in historically marginalized communities, where climate impacts can exacerbate existing inequalities. On the other hand, resilience to climate change is defined as the capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from the impacts of hazardous climatic events while incurring minimal damage to societal wellbeing, the economy and the environment. Climate change and resilience deal with two aspects reduction of sources of non-renewable energy resources and reducing vulnerability of climate change aspects. The terms 'mitigation' and 'adaptation' are used to refer to these aspects, respectively. Climate is the single most important factor determining the geographic distributions of species and major vegetation types. It also influences the properties of ecosystems and the flows of energy and materials through them. Climate change can alter where species live, how they interact, and the timing of biological events, which could fundamentally transform current ecosystems and food webs. Climate change can overwhelm the capacity of ecosystems to mitigate extreme events and disturbance, such as wildfires, floods, and drought. By restoring and safeguarding ecosystems on land and in the ocean, we help plants and animals to build climate resilience. Nature, in turn, can help us regulate the climate, give us clean, safe water, control pests and diseases and pollinate our crops. In our daily lives, resilience and adaptation help us overcome major challenges and turn problems into effective solutions. Similarly, adaptation to climate change is about adjusting to a warmer world, in order to protect people, nature, our prosperity and way of life. In our daily lives, resilience and adaptation help us overcome major challenges and turn problems into effective solutions. Similarly, adaptation to climate change is about adjusting to a warmer world, in order to protect people, nature, our prosperity and way of life.

The biggest driver of biodiversity loss is how people use the land and sea. This includes the conversion of land covers such as forests, wetlands and other natural habitats for agricultural and urban uses. Since 1990, around 420 million hectares of forest have been lost through conversion to other land uses. The main direct threats to conservation fall in eleven categories: Residential and commercial development; farming activities; energy production and mining; transportation and service corridors; biological resource usages; human intrusions and activities that alter, destroy. The main direct cause of biodiversity loss is land use change which drives an estimated 30% of biodiversity decline globally. Second is overexploitation (overfishing, overhunting and overharvesting) for things like food, medicines and timber which drives around 20%.The biggest driver of biodiversity loss is the way in which people use the land and sea. How we grow food, harvest materials such as wood or minerals from the ocean floor, and build our towns and cities all has an impact on the natural environmental and the biodiversity that lives there. Direct drivers of biodiversity and ecosystem change are land-use change, climate change, pollution, natural resource use and exploitation, and invasive species.Biodiversity, or the variety of all living things on our planet, has been declining at an alarming rate in recent years, mainly due to human activities, such as land use changes, pollution and climate change. Climate change has altered marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems around the world. It has caused the loss of local species, increased diseases, and driven mass mortality of plants and animals, resulting in the first climate-driven extinctions. The shrinkage of glaciers, decreasing water flow of the perennial rivers depleting ground water level directly and indirectly affect the biodiversity of the sub- region. Some of the most immediate effects of recent climate change are becoming apparent through affects on biodiversity. Many animal and plant species are likely to become extinct as ecosystems adjust to climate change. While adaptable species will survive, and other migrates, the end result will be lost biodiversity. Estimates show a 15% decrease in outdoor working capacity during daylight hours due to extreme heat by 2050,” . “The increased heat is expected to cost India 2.8% and 8.7% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and depressed living standards by 2050 and 2100, respectively. The rise in global temperature, sea level, and extreme weather events can cause habitat loss, changes in the timing of seasonal events, and an increase in disease outbreaks, which can lead to the extinction of species.

I recommend reading my books and articles on the use of fossil fuels and renewable energy sources for electricity generation in Latin America and the Caribbean, North America, and Europe, which include the advantages and disadvantages of the use of these energy sources and their impact on the environment and population. You can find the references of these books and articles in RG.

The grid resolution is about 250km within the atmosphere and 100km within the ocean which is typical. The better resolution is 25km in the atmosphere and a range of 8-25km for the ocean. A nominal resolution calculation would be needed to scale down to your preferred size. Note: The nominal resolution calculation needs to be done in python.

Ilan Kelman Merci beaucoup

See: https://www.developmentaid.org/news-stream/post/164948/advantages-and-disadvantages-of-carbon-credits-eo

Many studies indicate that the farmers are either wasting water by over irrigation or are deprived of their allocated share. The over irrigation has caused the salinity and water logging problems and the less water availability has caused either low crop yields or area with no cultivation. This situation has caused low crops yield and inefficient use of water. The inflexible supplies have also increased the cost of production by the use of ground water pumping.

Studies indicate that total available water supplies are still 3.25 times the crop water requirement. That indicates the great potential to store water at the farm level and utilize it for crop production. On Farm Water Management (OFWM) Punjab helps to meet crop water requirement by increasing flexibility of water availability and to grow high value crop .OFWM does both first store canal water delivers to the farm on the turn, then pumped out from the On Farm Water Storage (OFWS) to irrigate the crops in-between the turn through high efficiency irrigation system(Drip and sprinkler).OFWS are also being used for fish culture. Thus, better water management at farm is highly correlated with sustainable agriculture.

Dear Sean, thank you very much for your link.

People in Europe are as supportive of refugees now as they were seven years ago, find researchers who surveyed 18,000 participants in 15 countries in 2016 and 15,000 in the same countries in 2022. Although people consistently favoured certain demographics — such as those who are highly skilled and fluent in the host country’s language — refugees’ country of origin had only a very small effect on respondents’ preference...

Trees take up more carbon than other terrestrial plants. Paper traditionally was made from straw, bamboos, banana and other low carbon storing plants. Alternatively, fast growing high fibre products such as bamboo, grass and waste (straw) from grain be used for pulp production rather than wood.

Laws must be put in place to ban paper from wood and encourage other alternatives. It is possible.

Use of energy efficiency for climate change there are numerous benefits that come from energy efficiency as it regulates greenhouse gas emissions, which includes direct emission that comes from fossil fuel consumption and combustion. It also reduces all the indirect emissions from electricity generation as well. Energy efficiency refers to the ability to achieve the best results in any activity using the least amount of energy resources possible. It allows us to reduce the consumption of a type of energy and with it the possible environmental impacts associated with it, i.e. to fight against climate change. The energy sector is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change. In turn, changes in climate can disrupt energy networks themselves, stress infrastructure, and pose safety risks to people. Read more about greenhouse gas emissions on the Basics of Climate Change.Solar, wind, hydroelectric, biomass, and geothermal power can provide energy without the planet-warming effects of fossil fuels. In any discussion about climate change, renewable energy usually tops the list of changes the world can implement to stave off the worst effects of rising temperatures. Switch to green power generated from renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydropower. You can also consider rooftop solar or other self-supplied green power. The Sun provides the primary source of energy driving Earth's climate system, but its variations have played very little role in the climate changes observed in recent decades. The balance between incoming energy from the sun and outgoing energy from Earth ultimately drives our climate. This energy balance is governed by the first law of thermodynamics, also known as the law of conservation of energy. Often ranked as one of the most efficient energy sources, wind energy is harnessed all over the world.

Good day Chuck, thank you for taking the time to comment.

Did you read the context below the question on which the question is based? Your comment indicate you did not read it.

If you understand that the water leak dilemma has two solutions as indicated there, then the question relates to can you use it to make an analogy substituting water leak dilemma for environmental pollution leak dilemma to stress the solutions to the environmental problem.

Can you see how based on the context how an analogy related to the environmental pollution dilemma can be put together? If you see it, the answer to the question is then yes. If you can not see it, still the answer to the question is yes.

Thank you for taking the time to write.

Respectfully yours;

Lucio

Greenhouse gases allow sunlight to pass through the atmosphere and heat the planet, but then absorb and redirect some of the long wave radiation (heat) the planet emits. Energy flows down from the sun and up from the Earth and its atmosphere. The greenhouse effect is the way in which heat is trapped close to Earth's surface by “greenhouse gases.” These heat-trapping gases can be thought of as a blanket wrapped around Earth, keeping the planet toastier than it would be without them. Certain gases in the atmosphere absorb energy, slowing or preventing the loss of heat to space. Those gases are known as “greenhouse gases.” They act like a blanket, making the earth warmer than it would otherwise be. This process, commonly known as the “greenhouse effect,” is natural and necessary to support life. This phenomenon is called the greenhouse effect. It makes the surface of the earth warm and makes the survival of living beings possible. However, due to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases, the temperature of the earth has increased considerably leading to global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas emitted through human activities. These gases absorb and emit radiant energy in the thermal infrared range thus leading to the greenhouse effect. The main greenhouse gases in the atmosphere of Earth are carbon dioxide, water vapour, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone.The greenhouse effect is the process in which radiations from the sun are absorbed by the greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and the water vapour. These radiations are not reflected back into space. Greenhouse effect insulates the earth surface and does not allow the freezing of earth surface. Greenhouse effect is a process by which solar radiation is absorbed by greenhouse gases and the temperature of Earth's atmosphere is increased. This increase in the temperature of the surroundings is responsible for global warming. Gases like Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, water vapour, etc. Climate risks impacting the agricultural sector are direct risks to the food supply chain. All components of the food chain from food production, food processing, retailing/ distribution to consumption are impacted by accelerated climate variability. Climate change can disrupt food availability, reduce access to food, and affect food quality. For example, projected increases in temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, changes in extreme weather events, and reductions in water availability may all result in reduced agricultural productivity. Excessive heat or shortage of water can impede crop growth, reduce yields, and influence irrigation, soil quality, and the ecosystem on which agriculture depends. Various factors influence the food security risk including natural calamities and water scarcity. Climate change has been found to have an impact on food safety, particularly on incidence and prevalence of food-borne diseases. Increased climate variability, increased frequency and intensity of extreme events as well as slow ongoing changes will affect the stability of food supply, access and utilization.

Climate change can increase operational costs and reduce profits in the industrial sector due to factors such as new climate-friendly regulations, reduced utilisation of old stock, relocation of production processes and activities due to climate-related losses. Climate change impacts our society by disrupting the natural, economic and social systems we depend on. This disruption will affect food supplies, industry supply chains and financial markets, damage infrastructure and cities, and harm human health and global development. Some ecosystems are likely to be especially affected by climate change. In the long-term (beyond 2050), climate change may become the major driver for biodiversity loss globally. The socio-economic impacts of climate change are likely to be greatest in communities that face other stresses. Climate change is affecting some of the critical services that ecosystems provide to society. For example, ecosystems provide a bounty of food to people. Climate changes, like drought and heat, could affect the availability and quality of some foods, as well as farmers' ability to grow certain crops. The Reserve Bank of India's latest report suggests that up to 4.5 per cent of India's GDP could be at risk by 2030, owing to lost labour hours from extreme heat and humidity. Agriculture: Climate change can severely disrupt crop cycles and can cause low agricultural yield. Under 4°C warming, the west coast and southern India are projected to shift to new, high-temperature climatic regimes with significant impacts on agriculture. Changing Rainfall Patterns: A decline in monsoon rainfall since the 1950s has already been observed. nvest in food storage systems that can withstand extreme weather events. Diversify food sources and agricultural production techniques to reduce risk. Adopt water management systems that reduce crop damage from floods or droughts. Plant-based foods such as fruits and vegetables, whole grains, beans, peas, nuts, and lentils generally use less energy, land, and water, and have lower greenhouse gas intensities than animal-based foods. High temperatures, changing precipitation levels, and extreme weather conditions such as droughts, floods, cyclones, etc. will reduce agricultural productivity. Unsustainable agricultural practices lead to soil erosion, eventually leading to a drastic loss in yields. Interrelation between climate and agriculture: The climate crisis impacts all parts of the global food system, from production to consumption. It destroys land and crops, kills livestock, depletes fisheries, and cuts off transport to markets. This impacts food production, availability, diversity, access, and safety. When there is a disaster or a calamity, the production of food grains decreases in the affected area. This in turn creates a shortage of food in the area. Due to the food shortage, the prices go up. The raised prices of food materials affect the capacity of many people to buy the same.More extreme temperature and precipitation can prevent crops from growing. Extreme events, especially floods and droughts, can harm crops and reduce yields.

Climate change can alter where species live, how they interact, and the timing of biological events, which could fundamentally transform current ecosystems and food webs. Climate change can overwhelm the capacity of ecosystems to mitigate extreme events and disturbance, such as wildfires, floods, and drought. As the impacts of climate change mount, millions of vulnerable people face disproportionate challenges in terms of extreme events, health effects, food, water, and livelihood security, migration and forced displacement, loss of cultural identity, and other related risks. Climate change impacts our society by disrupting the natural, economic and social systems we depend on. This disruption will affect food supplies, industry supply chains and financial markets, damage infrastructure and cities, and harm human health and global development. Some ecosystems are likely to be especially affected by climate change. In the long-term , climate change may become the major driver for biodiversity loss globally. The socio-economic impacts of climate change are likely to be greatest in communities that face other stresses. Climate-change ecology is the study of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on any aspect of ecology. It includes the effects of altered temperature and precipitation on the distribution, abundance, behavior and physiology of populations and communities. Climate change threatens people with increased flooding, extreme heat, increased food and water scarcity, more disease, and economic loss. Human migration and conflict can also be a result. The World Health Organization (WHO) calls climate change the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.Climate change can increase operational costs and reduce profits in the industrial sector due to factors such as new climate-friendly regulations, reduced utilization of old stock, relocation of production processes and activities due to climate-related losses. Climate is warming, the populations of many species are in decline, pollution is affecting ecosystems and human health, and human societies now face new risks in terms of sea level changes, disease, food security, and climate extremes. Change in climate causes extreme cold or hot weather conditions and as a consequence vector-borne infections, air-borne infections, diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition and many other health issues arise. India urgently needs an appropriate and updated policy to address the challenges involved with climate change. Climate change will most likely affect populations through impacts on the necessities and comforts of life such as water, energy, housing, transportation, food, natural ecosystems, and health systems. High temperatures, changing precipitation levels, and extreme weather conditions such as droughts, floods, cyclones, etc. will reduce agricultural productivity. Unsustainable agricultural practices lead to soil erosion, eventually leading to a drastic loss in yields. For areas of the world that are already water-constrained, climate change will increasingly cause adverse impacts on agricultural production through diminishing water supplies, increases in extreme events like floods and severe storms, heat stress, and increased prevalence of pests and diseases. The effects of climate change on agriculture can result in lower crop yields and nutritional quality due to drought, heat waves and flooding as well as increases in pests and plant diseases. Climate change impacts are making it harder for agricultural activities to meet human needs. This climate change leads to higher temperatures and unanticipated rainfall across the country, resulting in reduced crop yields and overall food production. Due to the rise in temperature and changes in water availability, climate change can affect irrigated agricultural production throughout Agro-ecological zones. Agriculture contributes to a number larger of environmental issues that cause environmental degradation including: climate change, deforestation, biodiversity loss, dead zones, genetic engineering, irrigation problems, pollutants, soil degradation, and waste.Climate change can affect agriculture in a variety of ways. Beyond a certain range of temperatures, warming tends to reduce yields because crops speed through their development, producing less grain in the process. And higher temperatures also interfere with the ability of plants to get and use moisture.

Dr Gaurav H Tandon thank you for your contribution to the discussion

Dr Bruno Peeters thank you for your contribution to the discussion

Not possible in all ecosystems. Possible in some occasions only and it takes a prolonged time. Because natural ecosystem was not established in a single year or even decade. Using modern technologies we protect the ecosystem from anthropogenic activities and nature will heal the wounds slowly; we will encourage it.

Every model has a list of things it's good for. The questions it was built to answer. It turns out that Economic models are not really a good way to understand climate change.

There are obviously going to be winners and losers. Focusing on this is the easiest approach. The intersection of regions, and sectors of the economy presents a way to model climate change and the relationship to the economy. You could model these by looking at the likely impacts of different sectors. You might start by researching the work being done in finance to use climate models to forecast sector performance and commodity prices in an effort to allocate investment efficiently.

To go further you might consider Leontief models used for planned economies to model how impacts in one sector have an impact on the others. That is you might aim to see how the whole economy is impacted by studying all the various weird effects of climate change on the parts that make up the whole structural economy. All of this is of course very reductionistic, focused on capital accumulation and doesn't include enormous external costs like loss of life, livelihood , economic degradation and erosion of sustainability.

But beyond this narrow focus a standard model is a very ambitious goal. That's because it's not what economic models were built to answer.

One problem is that most economic models function on a much shorter timeframes. Climate change is an externality of burning fossil fuel over the last 100 years. This time scale is not congruent with economic models. The second difficulty is that environmental impact and even negative impacts of any business activities that are not reflected in the marginal production cost of producers or marginal value to consumers are externalities. Markets and the aggregate of accounting of the overall economy can not really measure the true impacts of climate change.

Fundamentally we need a new economics that includes natural systems. That is rather than treating effects as model externalities a model would include weather events , the capital of natural systems and biodiversity. With in this new context you could establish a relationship between the increased probabilities of severe weather events from climate models from accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere and it's broader impact and do so qualitatively as well as quantitatively. While there has been considerable work done in these areas there has yet to be an accepted standard.

Next, If you consider the possibility of runaway climate change, you must really start to come to terms with it as an existential threat. That is a nice way of saying that climate change could destroy our civilization. If we all are likely to be dead in 150, 200, or 300 years what use are economic models? The really gloomy outcomes are actually possible but you can't really quantify that in a standard model.

I will try to end with a more optimistic insight. The way out is not a simple optimization problem. There are many possibilities and it's a fundamentally chaotic situation when you include technological development and climate engineering. I believe a better goal is the creation of much more comprehensive and holistic computationally driven model . That is some combination not by lots of simple equations, the narrow models fundamental to trade and governance, but complex computer programs with millions of variables , multiple simulations and analysis of mountains of data from a massive array of sensors and satellites formulated monitored and optimized by AI systems. This sort of model, as complex system that is a reflection of what is real and might digest real transactional data of the economy may provide a context to formulate a solution. Perhaps it's based on a combination of carbon capture and release as well as changes to the reflectivity of grasslands and forests that optimizes and creates a new and adjustable global climate equilibrium. Then again maybe all the computers that are used to create this system account for the marginal carbon that pushes us over the brink. Oops. I did say try.

Climate change is already affecting water access for people around the world, causing more severe droughts and floods. Increasing global temperatures are one of the main contributors to this problem. Climate change impacts the water cycle by influencing when, where, and how much precipitation falls. This is one way the water cycle is being affected by climate change. In addition to sea level rise, climate change is causing more floods and droughts to occur globally. As the temperature on the surface level of the Earth increases, so does the rate of evaporation. As the excessive heat and energy warms the ocean, the change in temperature leads to unparalleled cascading effects, including ice-melting, sea-level rise, marine heat waves, and ocean acidification. This cycling of water is intimately linked with energy exchanges among the atmosphere, ocean, and land that determine the Earth's climate and cause much of natural climate variability. The impacts of climate change and variability on the quality of human life occur primarily through changes in the water cycle.Through enhanced global warming via increasing levels of carbon in the atmosphere the impact has been to super-charge both cycles. As, we have seen greater evaporation in parts of the world that creates heavier rainfall in some areas and deeper droughts in others. In India, declines in monsoon rainfall since the 1950s have already been observed. The frequency of heavy rainfall events has also increased. An abrupt change in the monsoon could precipitate a major crisis, triggering more frequent droughts as well as greater flooding in large parts of India. Over the long term, the carbon cycle seems to maintain a balance that prevents all of Earth's carbon from entering the atmosphere or from being stored entirely in rocks. This balance helps keep Earth's temperature relatively stable, like a thermostat. The carbon cycle describes how carbon transfers between different reservoirs located on Earth. This cycle is important for maintaining a stable climate and carbon balance on Earth. The cycling of matter important because there are only finite amounts of nutrients available on the earth, they must be recycled in order to ensure the continued existence of living organisms. Carbon dioxide molecules provide the initial greenhouse heating needed to maintain water vapor concentrations. When carbon dioxide concentrations drop, Earth cools, some water vapor falls out of the atmosphere, and the greenhouse warming caused by water vapor drops. Climate change affects evaporation and precipitation and climate change is likely causing parts of the water cycle to speed up as warming global temperatures increase the rate of evaporation worldwide and more evaporation is causing more precipitation, on average. Earth's orbit wobbles as the sun, the moon and other planets change their relative positions. These cyclical wobbles, called Milankovitch cycles, cause the amount of sunlight to vary at middle latitudes by up to 25% and cause the climate to oscillate. Seasons with high levels of precipitation lead to increased surface runoff and channel flow. In contrast, drier seasons will lead to reduced river discharge and no runoff. In mountainous regions, increased channel flow and runoff can occur due to ice melt. The carbon cycle describes how carbon transfers between different reservoirs located on Earth. This cycle is important for maintaining a stable climate and carbon balance on Earth.