Climate Change - Science topic

Thank You dear Suraj Kapoor for sharing such a relative article

going through the article...

'(1) adaptation is almost exclusively reactive, rather than anticipatory of future conditions—though reactivity does not imply that individuals are powerless to respond, and to respond quickly.'

Here author highlights how adaptation is disabled in such a case that anticipation is hard and impossible (taking Covid pandemic as an example).

Dear Kai,

are you incorporating into your research the study of complex adaptive systems (CAS) and of emergence/emergent phenomena? Both are very strong and robust theoretical concepts in complexity science, which offer powerful methodological tools for analysis.

Best,

Julius

Kabbilawsh Peruvazhuthi

You asked "My question is that how we can conclude the trend detected is due to climate change only ...". My answer is that what you are measuring is climate change. If you are asking how can we conclude the trend is due to anthropogenic CO₂, then we can't. That is why the the climate deniers have been so successful.

But the climate is changing, and we have incresed atmospheric CO₂ from 280 ppm to 420 ppm, a 50% increase since preindustrial times. See:

We know that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, so it only makes sense to attribute that increase to the concurrent change in climate.

I am not specifically expert in the Mann-Kendall Trend test but it is related to classical non-parametric tests, like the Kendall correlation test that I know better. Be careful with XLSTAT (which works in ExceI, not in Word). Indeed, in the procedure I used a few years ago, I had many problems and had to contact the support. I think you should read more about the test and more generally on non-parametric tests. Asymptotic means when the number of observations n grows to infinity. Otherwise, these tests are based on tables of critical values depending on n. When n is too large, use the asymptotic distribution, often normal with a given mean and a given variance (depending on n, of course). For the continuity correction, it is because the test statistic takes discrete values whereas the asymptotic distribution is continuous. The same kind of correction appears with a binomial distribution. Look in your statistics course.

It's very simple. the term climate covers a time interval of several hundred years. This is true? If so, what global knowledge do we have about the climate in 1700, for example? Measurement of air temperature and pressure at different points on the Earth. discrete changes. Is it true that there were no satellite measurements? Does this mean that the modern system of weather monitoring is still insufficient for studying the climate? The study of climate using atmospheric indices corresponds to the science of 1900. I am simplifying this. what is the atmospheric circulation index? This is a time series of atmospheric pressure differences at two points, for example. If these are observation points in one climatic zone, then this is scientific. And if not? This is about atmospheric circulation indices. Now about teleconnection. Climate change has causes. For example, a volcanic eruption changes the optical characteristics of the atmosphere and cooling sets in. You can study these reasons. We can say that there are no reasons. Everything happens by chance. And then, by insignificant temperature changes in the equatorial zone between Australia and the island of Tahiti, for example, you predict climate change in India. Do you agree that changes in pressure in the equatorial zone cannot be the cause of climate change in India? This is teleconnection, when they study not the causes but the correlation.

It gives visually the change in value as changing the variables in study, a way you cannot easily diagnose from data table. You can see the volume of change !!. Regards.

Climate change and health problems are intricately related.. you can consult this book

Dear Kabbilawsh Peruvazhuthi,

Interesting question, which considers two topics: the optimum number of stations and the maximum percentage of missing values.

The optimum number of rainfall stations depends on different factors, for instance the temporal resolution of the measurements (hourly, daily, monthly), the spatial variability of rainfall in a particular area and the purpose/ use of the rainfall data. Hourly measurements generally require smaller spatial scales (and hence more rainfall stations per unit area) than daily or monthly measurements. Areas with a large spatial variability in rainfall (e.g. convective rainfall, tropical areas, mountainous areas) will require more stations per unit area than areas with less spatial variability. Regarding the purpose and use of the rainfall data, it certainly will make a difference whether rainfall data are directly used (e.g. for early warning or trend analyses) or used as input in for instance a hydrological model. In the latter case, the rainfall data are filtered and spatial and temporal rainfall variability is dampened through the rainfall-runoff transformation (i.e. hydrological fluxes and water storage compartments in a catchment). See for instance these papers on appropriate spatial resolutions and number of rainfall stations: , and .

As Vishnuvardan Narayanamurthi also indicated, there is no fixed maximum percentage of missing data. Again, this depends on the spatial and (in particular) temporal variability of rainfall and the use of the data. Highly temporally variable rainfall should have less missing data than more smoothly varying rainfall. One way to look at this is to determine the temporal correlation length by constructing a temporal variogram (temporal correlation coefficient as a function of temporal lag). Temporal resolutions should be typically much smaller than the temporal correlation length and hence, filling data gaps should be done at smaller temporal scales than the temporal correlation length as well (often not much more than a (couple of) day(s) for rainfall). Obviously, when for instance rainfall trend analysis is carried out at larger spatial scales (grid scales instead of station/ point scale), temporal variability will decrease and some more missing values would be acceptable and can be interpolated/ filled in.

Good luck,

Martijn

Dear Sofia,

the CML 2013 impact assessment method also takes ecotoxicity into account, I know. Why do you want to combine impact assessment methods? From a professional point of view, I would like to ask this question because I am interested, I do not want to argue, of course. Best wishes, Viktoria

The following RG links are also very useful:

Deserts are spreading northwards in Central Asia as a result of global warming. A study has found that, since the 1980s, regions with a desert climate have expanded by as much as 100 kilometres in northern Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, in southern Kazakhstan and around the Junggar Basin in northwestern China. The effect of reduced rainfall and warmer temperatures will alter the plants that grow in these regions, and the animals that rely on them...

Ilan Kelman

No such information exist in your suggested report "annual report for Lancet Countdown".

Dariusz, good day. Do you think that sustainability(theory and practice) is sustainable development(theory and practice? If yes, why you think so. If not, why you think so?

That will lead to the same answer to the current question you did not try directly to answer. What ever your answer, I will reply to exchange ideas to eliminate apparently ambiguities once and for all.

Respectfully yours;

Lucio

Thank you @Pankaj Singha. @Serigne Mbacké Coly, here is the link on RG

In the case of Uzbekistan, people overuse rangeland resources where they live in rural areas. It depends on their economic activities as well as survival in cold winter.

George Pindua

By this increasing trend of temperature due to climate change it has a huge negative impact on soil biodiversity by means of soil Respiration. At the same time soil Respiration is an important factor by which we can determine biological activities in soil. Also the organic matter decomposition and overall carbon storage in soil.

Dear Lucio,

Answering your question, I say that in my opinion the scale of avoiding the green market paradigm by companies and enterprises is still very large in the country where I operate. Many commercially operating companies and enterprises, if they are not forced by legal norms or if their clients still have a low level of pro-environmental transformation, still ignore the paradigms of the green market, they ignore the principles of ecological social responsibility, the principles of business ethics, green economy, sustainable development goals. On the other hand, some companies, corporations, banks and other financial institutions promote themselves in advertising spots as green and meeting specific goals of sustainable development. This is not always true. Usually, the scale of the transformation of business from classic to green is small and in advertising campaigns certain economic entities present themselves as fully green and implement on a large scale the goals of sustainable development. However, a more serious problem is that this type of misleading customers, citizens, this type of unreliable advertising campaigns and brand promotion campaigns as well as product and / or service offers are also used by government-controlled state-owned companies and some public institutions. The negative effect of such situations is misleading customers and citizens who, when buying products and / or services of a specific company, bank, enterprise, etc., assume that they are buying a green offer from an entity that pursues sustainable development goals and runs a green business, which often does not. is truthful. In addition, companies and enterprises use non-returnable financial subsidies for the implementation of pro-environmental economic ventures, for the creation and implementation of new eco-innovations, new green technologies, etc. However, there is no system of precise determination of what is green innovation and new green technology and what is not. Often, these subsidies are granted to companies and enterprises that fictitiously implement green economic ventures or the scale of pro-environmental business is negligible. On the other hand, there is a lack of financial resources for carrying out a systemic pro-environmental transformation of the economy, for the construction of new power plants generating electricity and / or heat from renewable and emission-free energy sources, for the development of electromobility, for the development of sustainable ecological agriculture, for afforestation of civilization degraded areas, for technology improvement. recycling and creating biodegradable substitutes for plastics, etc.

Best regards,

Dariusz

The observed and projected change in climate is important for assessment and adaptation in field of agriculture. According to our research in the last two decades, the regional land surface warming rate of the past and probably the future has been overestimated, due to the overlook of the urbanization bias in the observational data series of surface air temperature. In China, the bias in surface air temperature data reaches at least 30% for the national meteorological stations. It should be considered in the studies of impact and adaptation of agriculture, in addition to the detection and attribution of climate change. Anyway, almost all the farm lands are not in or near the urban areas, but most of the observational stations in China are.

Dear Ilan

I have been researching dust storms for years. In my opinion, research, participatory management, and regional cooperation can solve the problem to some extent.

Also check please the following useful RG links:

Before answering your valuable question, please let me ask:

The differences between them are greats. They only car that I have now is an electric one. I will not repeat these differences between the two norms of cars that are already known by our honorable colleagues. But, I want to point to another point. These cars are not suitable for petroleum countries where the petrol price is very cheap. My government does not actually encourage them for some reasons that there is no need to be mentioned here. To prove that, the electric stations are mainly only in the capital of Jordan, Amman. If you go to other cities, you will find only zero or one station that can serve two cars at most.!!

For instance, I went to Irbid and wait in the queue for more than 6 hours; otherwise, I should upload my car in the car winch! Anyhow, I will not repeat that black experiment. My beloved car is only for Amman.

My government can solve the problem in few seconds by issuing the following decision: every gas station must have also two electric stations for serving at least two cars simultaneously.

Image' source

1.) Local checklist of the flora, and determine what is native to the area and what is introduced. Do not plant introduced.

2.) "Soil" and the development and creation of "soil" is done by native plants, the soil microbes, and the native wild animals that live among those plants. The animals concentrate nitrogen, phosphorus and calcium for the plants, and move those three nutrients around for the plants.

3.) Each plant that lives on dry land, has a annual rainfall requirement for seedling and adult plant survival and that requirement is within a very narrow range that expands and contracts as you go up and down the annual rainfall totals. It is roughly plus or minus 20%, so rainfall isolines should be drawn to produce plant transfer zones.

4.) Always use local ecotype plant material for planting, because it is better adapted for the soils and weather conditions.

5.) Each plant on dry land, has a soil nutrient and organic matter in the top 4 cm threshold, for seedling survival, and dropping below that threshold even a few PPM will not allow seedlings to survive. Grazing worldwide has dropped those thresholds below what local native plants need to survive, so when seedlings cannot survive, then you end up with barren lands with no or very sparse vegetation.

6.) Do a search for Zombies--if your trees, shrubs, and perennial plants are not reproducing, and you can check that by measuring basal diameters and if no seedlings are found,m then you have a Zombi population that stopped reproducing and that is caused by grazing animals eating the seedlings constantly, or you have lowered the soil nutrients below the survival threshold.

7.) Get established a thin layer of native plants, and that will lower the surface temperatures so that rain clouds can form, and also retain moisture longer in the surface.

8.) Even a very thin layer of native plants on the soil, can keep the soil from getting airborne, which also heats up the air, and eliminates rain cloud formation. See the attached image of the dust off Arabia heating up the air all the way to Pakistan, and eliminating any rain cloud formation

9.) Each country has a group of native plants that are the hosts to the Pseudomonas bacteria, that create our rain clouds for us, because they can form ice crystals at a higher temperature than any other raindrop nuclei. This action only discovered about 12 years ago, and nobody knows what those plants are yet. Have attached an image of the Arabian peninsula, where you can see the Pseudomonas host plants producing clouds, and the atmospheric dust stopping the formation of rain clouds. See https://www.discovermagazine.com/planet-earth/does-rain-come-from-life-in-the-clouds

10.) Get a significant annual budget to do small scale test plots, because each ecosystem has about 1,000-2,000 native plants, and you need to sort out the best two dozen to work with.

11.) Follow the lead of KSA's project that I started at www.ecoseeds.com/cool.html 20 years ago, that is getting funded right now to plant one million trees a week for the next eight years, and over time, plant 10 BILLION across all of Arabia, at https://www.saudigreeninitiative.org/targets/greening-saudi/

If you define better what you mean by "Recovery" that might get you clearer answers.

Think of some indicators (independent variables) like swt, pH, salinity, DO etc and dependent variable like CI of fish (species-wise), distribution, community structure and have a correlation study

Just collect the data and maps, interpolate the data with satellite images through ArcView GIS software

Ilan Kelman - Actually, I find interesting the alternatives that you propose!

I was just underlining that even if RCPs and SSPs are items not so easy to handle, in the recent years the research community spent many efforts to make these scenarios more digestible for the common users (policy makers, researchers, students)!

Therefore, as a conclusion of our discussion about this issue, I can say that research should move forward in both directions: simplify the use of these forcing scenarios-climate models for a use within the reach of all (as I hope), and find alternative approaches that could give more comprehensible and easier tools to common citizens (as you propose in your research).

Many thanks for this debate

Best wishes for your research

Claudio

www.geasci.org/IntErO Predicting sediment yield at the catchment scale is one of the main challenges in geomorphologic research. The research of the calculation of soil erosion intensity and torrents in Yugoslavia was initiated by the team of the researchers from the Jaroslav Cerni Institute for the Development of Water Resources in 1947. The first method that was developed in Yugoslavia was the Method for the Quantitative Classification of Erosion - MQCE (1954). The erosion intensity from the river basin was calculated by computing the amount of sediment that reaches the downstream part at the lowest point of the basin (H min). The process of the methodology development for investigation erosion process, mapping, sediment calculating and torrent classification continuous and resulted with the establishment of the Erosion Potential Method – EPM in 1968. The IntErO model (Spalevic, 2011) uses the Erosion Potential Method (Gavrilovic, 1972) in its algorithm background. The IntErO model, an upgrading of the Surface and Distance Measuring (Spalevic, 1999; Spalevic et al, 1999) and River Basins (Spalevic, 1999; Spalevic et al, 2000) programs and can be used for handling a large number of data with the processing of 27 inputs, returning, after the calculations, 22 final result parameters (Coefficient of the river basin form, A; Coefficient of the watershed development, m; Average river basin width, B; (A)symmetry of the river basin, a; Density of the river network of the basin, G; Coefficient of the river basin tortuousness, K; Average river basin altitude, Hsr; Average elevation difference of the river basin, D; Average river basin decline, Isr; The height of the local erosion base of the river basin, Hleb; Coefficient of the erosion energy of the river basin’s relief, Er; Coefficient of the region’s permeability, S1; Coefficient of the vegetation cover, S2; Analytical presentation of the water retention in inflow, W; Energetic potential of water flow during torrent rains, 2×gDF^½; Maximal outflow from the river basin, Qmax; Temperature coefficient of the region, T; Coefficient of the river basin erosion, Z; Production of erosion material in the river basin, Wyear; Coefficient of the deposit retention, Ru; Real soil losses, Gsp; Real soil losses per km2. For calculations model needs the following NUMERICAL VALUES as inputs: (1) The surface of River basin area, F [km²]; (2) The length of the watershed (perimeter), O [km]; (3) Natural length of the main watercourse, Lv [km]; (4) The shortest distance between the fountainhead and mouth, Lm [km]; (5) The total length of the main watercourse with tributaries of I and II class, ΣL [km]; (6) River basin length measured by a series of parallel lines, Lb [km]; (7) The area of the larger river basin part, Fv [km²]; (8) The area of the smaller river basin part, Fm [km²]; (9) Contour lines length, Liz [km]; (10) The area between the two neighboring contour lines, fiz [km²]. The model considers factors related to lithology (rocks permeability by percentage: fp, permeable; fpp, semipermeable; fo, low permeability) and soil type (erodibility coefficient, Y); topographic and relief data (I coefficient), monthly mean and annual precipitation (P coefficient), temperatures annual averages (t coefficient); land cover data (Xa coefficient of the River basin planning): 1. Bare lands; 2. Plough-lands; 3. Meadows; 4. Mountain pastures; 5. Orchards and vineyards; 6. Degraded forests; 7. Well-constituted forests; and finally the state of erosion patterns, and development of the watercourse network (Φ coefficient). The IntErO model can be characterized as semi-quantitative because it is based on a combination of descriptive and quantitative procedures. Compared to other semi-quantitative methods, this is the most quantitative because it uses descriptive evaluation for three parameters only: soil erodibility, soil protection, and the extent of erosion in the catchment.

SOME EXAMPLES OF THE IntErO APPLICATION: Spalevic, V.; Barovic, G.; Vujacic, D.; Curovic, M.; Behzadfar, M.; Djurovic, N.; Dudic, B.; Billi, P. The Impact of Land Use Changes on Soil Erosion in the River Basin of Miocki Potok, Montenegro. Water 2020, 12, 2973. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12112973 Sakuno, N.R.R., Guicardi, A.C.F., Spalevic, V., Avanzi, J.C., Silva, M.L.N., Mincato, R.L. (2020): Adaptation and application of the erosion potential method for tropical soils. Revista Ciência Agronômica, 51(1):  e20186545. Epub February 03, 2020. Link: http://www.scielo.br/pdf/rca/v51n1/1806-6690-rca-51-01-e20186545.pdf Mohammadi, M.; Khaledi Darvishan, A.K.; Spalevic, V.; Dudic, B.; Billi, P. Analysis of the Impact of Land Use Changes on Soil Erosion Intensity and Sediment Yield Using the IntErO Model in the Talar Watershed of Iran. Water 2021, 13, 881. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13060881 Ouallali, A,; Aassoumi, H.; Moukhchane, M.; Moumou, A.; Houssni, M.; Spalevic, V.; Keesstra, S. (2020) Sediment mobilization study on Cretaceous, Tertiary and Quaternary lithological formations of an external Rif catchment, Morocco, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65:9, 1568-1582, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1755435 (link to download the peper) Spalevic, V., Zejak, D., Curovic, M., Glisic, I., Radovic, A. (2021): Analysis of the impact of fruit growing development on the intensity of soil erosion and runoff: Case study of Krusevo, Bijelo Polje, Montenegro. Agriculture and Forestry, 67 (2): 37-51 (link to download the paper) Tavares, A.S.; Uagoda, R.E.S.; Spalevic, V.; Mincato, R.L. (2021): Analysis of the erosion potential and sediment yield using the IntErO model in an experimental watershed dominated by karst in Brazil. Agriculture and Forestry, 67 (2): 153-16 (link to download the paper) Spalevic, V. (2019): Assessment of soil erosion processes by using the ‘IntErO’ model: Case study of the Duboki Potok, Montenegro. Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology 20 (2): 657–665. Link to the paper: http://www.jepe-journal.info/journal-content/vol-20-no2 Direct link to the paper: (link) Chalise, D.; Kumar, L.; Spalevic, V.; Skataric, G. Estimation of Sediment Yield and Maximum Outflow Using the IntErO Model in the Sarada River Basin of Nepal. Water 2019, 11, 952. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11050952 Khaledi Darvishan, A., Mohammadi, M., Skataric, G., Popovic, S., Behzadfar, M., Rodolfo Ribeiro Sakuno, N., Luiz Mincato, R., Spalevic, V. (2019): Assessment of soil erosion, sediment yield and maximum outflow, using IntErO model (Case study: S8-IntA Shirindarreh Watershed, Iran). Agriculture and Forestry, 65 (4), 203-210. https://doi.org/10.17707/AgricultForest.65.4.18 El Mouatassime, S., Boukdir, A., Karaoui, I., Skataric, G., Nacka, M., Khaledi Darvishan, A., Sestras, P., Spalevic, V. (2019): Modelling of soil erosion processes and runoff for sustainable watershed management: Case study Oued el Abid Watershed, Morocco. Agriculture and Forestry 65 (4), 241-250. https://doi.org/10.17707/AgricultForest.65.4.22 Nikolic, G., Spalevic, V., Curovic, M., Khaledi Darvishan, A., Skataric, G., Pajic, M., Kavian, A., & Tanaskovik, V. (2018). Variability of Soil Erosion Intensity Due to Vegetation Cover Changes: Case Study of Orahovacka Rijeka, Montenegro. Notulae Botanicae Horti Agrobotanici Cluj-Napoca, 47(1), 237-248. https://doi.org/10.15835/nbha47111310 Khaledi Darvishan, A., Derikvandi, M., Aliramaee, R., Khorsand, M., Spalevic, V., Gholami, L., Vujacic, D. (2018): Efficiency of INTERO model to predict soil erosion intensity and sediment yield in Khamsan representative watershed (West of Iran). AGROFOR International Journal, 3 (2): 22-31. https://doi.org/10.7251/AGRENG1802022K Vujacic, D., Barovic, G., Djekovic, V., Andjelkovic, A., Khaledi Darvishan, A., Gholami, L., Jovanovic, M. and Spalevic, V. (2017): Calculation of Sediment Yield using the “River Basin” and “Surface and Distance” Models: A Case Study of the Sheremetski Potok Watershed, Montenegro. Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology, 18(3): 1193-1202. Link: http://www.jepe-journal.info/journal-content/vol-18-no-3 Spalevic, V., Lakicevic, M., Radanovic, D., Billi, P., Barovic, G., Vujacic, D., Sestras, P., Khaledi Darvishan, A. (2017): Ecological-Economic (Eco-Eco) modelling in the river basins of Mountainous regions: Impact of land cover changes on sediment yield in the Velicka Rijeka in Montenegro. Notulae Botanicae Horti Agrobotanici Cluj-Napoca: 45(2):602-610. https://doi.org/10.15835/nbha45210695 Spalevic, V., Radanovic, D., Skataric, G., Billi. P., Barovic, G., Curovic, M., Sestras, P., and Khaledi Darvishan A. (2017): Ecological-economic (eco-eco) modelling in the mountainous river basins: Impact of land cover changes on soil erosion. Agriculture and Forestry, 63 (4): 9-25. https://doi.org/10.17707/AgricultForest.63.4.01 Khaledi Darvishan A., Behzadfar M., Spalevic V., Kalonde P., Ouallali A., Mouatassime E. S., (2017) Calculation of sediment yield in the S2-1 watershed of the Shirindareh river basin, Iran, Agriculture and Forestry, 63 (3): 23-32. https://doi.org/10.17707/AgricultForest.63.3.03 Vujacic, D., Spalevic, V. (2016): Assessment of Runoff and Soil Erosion in the Radulicka Rijeka Watershed, Polimlje, Montenegro. Agriculture and Forestry, 62 (2): 283-292. https://doi.org/10.17707/AgricultForest.62.2.25 Spalevic, V., Curovic, M., Barovic, G., Vujacic, D., Tunguz, V. and Djurovic, N. (2015): Soil erosion in the river basin of Provala, Montenegro. Agriculture and Forestry, 61(4): 133-143. https://doi.org/10.17707/AgricultForest.61.4.14 Barovic, G. and Spalevic, V. (2015): Calculation of runoff and soil erosion intensity in the Rakljanska Rijeka watershed, Polimlje, Montenegro. Agriculture and Forestry, 61(4): 109-115. https://doi.org/10.17707/AgricultForest.61.4.11 Barovic, G., Leandro Naves Silva, M., Veloso Gomes Batista, P., Vujacic, D., Soares Souza, W., Cesar Avanzi, J., Behzadfar M., Spalevic, V. (2015): Estimation of sediment yield using the IntErO model in the S1-5 Watershed of the Shirindareh River Basin, Iran. Agriculture and Forestry (61): 3: 233-243. https://doi.org/10.17707/AgricultForest.61.3.23 Vujacic, D., Barovic, G., Tanaskovikj, V., Kisic, I., Song, X., Silva, M.L.N. and Spalevic, V. (2015). Calculation of runoff and sediment yield in the Pisevska Rijeka Watershed, Polimlje, Montenegro. Agriculture and Forestry, 61 (2): 225-234. https://doi.org/10.17707/AgricultForest.61.2.20 Behzadfar, M., Tazioli, A., Vukelic-Shutoska, M., Simunic, I. Spalevic, V. (2014): Calculation of sediment yield in the S1 - 1 Watershed, Shirindareh Watershed, Iran. Agriculture and Forestry, 60 (4): 207-216. Link: http://www.agricultforest.ac.me/paper.php?journal_id=185&id=2355 Spalevic, V., Railic, B., Djekovic, V., Andjelkovovic, A. and Curovic, M. (2014): Calculation of the Soil Erosion Intensity and Runoff of the Lapnjak Watershed, Polimlje, Montenegro. Agriculture and Forestry, 60 (2): 261- 271. Link: http://www.agricultforest.ac.me/paper.php?journal_id=182&id=2300 Spalevic, V., Radanovic, D., Behzadfar, M., Djekovic, V., Andjelkovic, A., Milosevic, N (2014): Calculation of the sediment yield of the Trebacka rijeka, Polimlje, Montenegro. Agriculture and Forestry, 60 (1): 259-272. Link: http://www.agricultforest.ac.me/paper.php?journal_id=181&id=2255 Spalevic, V., Hubl, J. Hasenauer, H. and Curovic, M. (2014): Calculation of soil erosion intensity in the Bosnjak Watershed, Polimlje River Basin, Montenegro. The 5th International Symposium “Agrosym 2014”, Jahorina, 23-26 October 2014, Bosnia and Herzegovina, p 730-738. Spalevic, V., Grbovic, K., Gligorevic, K., Curovic, M. and Billi, P. (2013): Calculation of runoff and soil erosion on the Tifran watershed, Polimlje, North-East of Montenegro. Agriculture and Forestry, 59 (4): 5-17. Link: http://www.agricultforest.ac.me/paper.php?journal_id=176&id=2212 Spalevic, V., Simunic, I., Vukelic-Sutoska, M., Uzen, N., Curovic, M. (2013): Prediction of the soil erosion intensity from the River Basin Navotinski, Polimlje (Northeast Montenegro). Agriculture and Forestry, 59 (2): 9-20. Link: http://www.agricultforest.ac.me/paper.php?journal_id=174&id=2167 Spalevic, V., Mahoney, W., Djurovic, N., Uzen, U. and Curovic, M. (2012): Calculation of soil erosion intensity and maximum outflow from the Rovacki River Basin, Montenegro. Agriculture and Forestry, 58(3): 7-21. Link: http://www.agricultforest.ac.me/paper.php?journal_id=171&id=2108 Spalevic, V., Curovic, M., Borota, D. and Fustic, B. (2012): Soil erosion in the River Basin Zeljeznica, area of Bar, Montenegro. Agriculture and Forestry, 54 (1-4): 5-24. Link: http://www.agricultforest.ac.me/paper.php?journal_id=157&id=2015

The following links are also very useful: https://stateoftalent.org/topic/fa7413-how-to-determine-sample-size-for-unknown-population

Although humanity as a whole is more aware than ever of the negative effects of climate change, we’re edging ever closer to the tipping point. The damage from irreversible climate change is expected to impact virtually every industry on Earth, including housing.

Thanks to climate change, renters and homeowners alike, especially young people, are facing a radically different future than we may have imagined. The unfortunate reality is that, unless governments and policymakers take drastic steps toward improving planetary health, climate change will continue to impact everyday life, including where we live...

And it will still cause many side effects since Kyoto/92 is not being observed by nations, specially historical colonizators.

Prior to 1990 the halogenated coumpounds were a pretty big component of greenhouse gases.

The banning of these have been a success story for the GHG and ozone hole stabilization.

After carbon dioxide methane then nitrous oxides are the most important.

When dealing with the overall warming issue the important thing is the gross emissions jmust substract the sequestrations to get the net continuing effect.

The warming of the environment is driving emissions higher because of the melting of the tundra.

To resolve a runaway greenhouse gas effect on global warming the simply reding of emissions will not be effective beside the reduction of emissions we need to more effective in the sequestration.

Methane needs better focus on the losses from the gas lines and the use of a new generation of methane combustion which can make methan a low carbon resource.

Much methane is related to our global agriculture rice and ruminants and efforts to reduce those are needed.

Nitroous oxides are largely related to fertilizer usage.

The way to address the overall issue is to reduce the emissions sources and accelerate sequestations through our management of agriculture forests and marine resources.

We are able to quantify both emissions and sequestrations and develop invcentives and penalties which will provide a way to address the issues.

Thank you, I will try it.

Dear Elaheh, There are significant gaps in knowledge of science of soil conservation and operational strategies, both of which influence to potentially unhealthy soil. To optimise growing international soils sustainably, solid policy support is required. So raising civil and policies and practises knowledge of the crucial significance of soil biological diversity, as well as raising knowledge and understanding about how these soils can be preserved and intended to protect on a global basis, can aid in the achievement of the SDGs.

A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

But Extreme Weather Prediction models are yet to reach accuracy

Please also see the following RG links.

Visit kindly the following useful RG link:

Markos A. Ktistakis Thanks for the detailed explanation.

“Net-zero emissions” sounds a lot like “zero emissions” but can actually mean something quite different. A "net-zero" climate goal essentially means that as long as a company or government says it will remove the same amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as it pollutes, it can claim to be "net" zero. That may sound good for the climate. But in reality, this poses many problems, not least because it is very difficult to remove CO2 from the atmosphere on a large scale.

Instead of planning to reduce emissions to truly zero, most “net zero” climate goals plan to continue polluting for decades, while hoping that trees or new technologies will suck the CO2 out of the air to solve the problem. Net-zero goals serve as a smokescreen to allow companies to continue business as usual while appearing more ambitious than they actually are.

Unfortunately, if you add up all the carbon offsets from the hundreds upon hundreds of “Net-Zero” targets announced by governments and corporations so far, it will take hundreds of millions of hectares of new tree plantations – wasteland that the planet does not have. Everyone mistakenly assumes that the land available to solve the problem is endless. But this is not the case.

For instance; revolute margin of a leaf is clearly xeromorphic (Hill 1998), but what for flower parts? They are actually metamorphosed pieces.

Hill R.S. (1998). Fossil evidence for the xeromorphy and scleromorphy in Australian Proteaceae. Australian Systematic Botany 11(4) DOI: 10.1071/SB97016

Conjuntural causality is a very common concept in qualitative comparative research, it gained attention with the work of Charles Ragin since the late 1980s as factors usually work together in complex environments….

Ragin, Charles C., 1987. The Comparative Method: Moving Beyond the Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies. University of California Press.

Ragin, Charles C., 1991. Issues and Alternatives in Comparative Social Research. E.J. Grill.

Ragin, Charles C., 1994. Constructing Social Research: The Unity and Diversity of Method. Pine Forge Press.

I wrote my own views on methodology in 2002 using these ideas to advance my own view of the ideal research methodology in the context of developing country conditions and critical problems planning

Also check please the following useful link: https://www.agdaily.com/insights/net-zero-mean-farmers-ranchers/

The Bambara Groundnut and African yam bean are climate smart crops with potentials not fully explored. There are published papers on both especially from Africa. You may check them out Prof. Good evening sir.

Dear Elmugheira Mohammed,

Thanks for sharing the link.

Best regards.

Also, you can download CMIP6 ensemble data and/or its members from Copernicus (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/projections-cmip6?tab=overview).

Good luck on your PhD.

Investment into resilience can align with sustainable development goals, improving quality of life, stimulating the economy, and protecting the environment while safeguarding areas against the onset of climate change. Resilience is the ability of a system to absorb, withstand and bounce back after an adverse event. https://www.eesi.org/topics/adaptation-resilience/description

You need to convert time series to numerical values first, then apply it.

Dear Lucio Muñoz , let me bring in my simple point that economics is still not a science, but a profession, based on certain accounts and accounting methods of society. Even medicine is not a science, but more a science-based practice of empirical evidences via testing procedures. With respect to natural and exact science, I need to mention that the basic assumptions of biological evolution, physical thermodynamics and mathematical information theory are contradictory.

The ideological trap for scientific research and researchers is based on the financial decision: which research and researcher gets funded? Most scientific research is funded by government grants , companies doing research and development, and non-profit foundations; in a perfect world, money wouldn't matter — all scientific studies (regardless of funding source) would be completely objective.

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Great moments in science: Einstein discovers that time is actually money.

Gary Larson

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Dear Serigne Mbacké Coly Resilience to climate change is first of all a time-scale dielema: At what time scale should we consider the priority measures to be implemented in order to ensure the protection of natural resources and guarantee their sustainability? (i) direct and urgent measures associated with the modes of exploitation and development of resources ; (ii) indirect and very long-term implications of Climate Change on the potential of resources. Has everything been done on (i) to decree that it is urgent to tackle (ii) head-on with all its uncertainties, particularly with regard to time scales involved, incompatible with the scales of concrete actions?

Is it absurd to assume, like for the evolution of species and their adaptations to natural changes of all kinds, that adaptations and resilience to the effects of climate change should readjust themselves, to changes in natural conditions, which by definition are very slow and loaded with uncertainties?

Moral: what are the urgent actions for scientists, decision-makers, actors, and active civil societies, and on what issues should scientific, technical, and financial resources should be concentrated?

See:

Dear Jamel Sir, If shale gas is to be established on a global scale, prominent environmental import and export may indeed be obliged, and even though some of this could be owing to complexities due to lack of data. Long-term approach, protracted climate and energy aspirations for limiting the social and environmental consequences of shale gas must be devised and constantly monitored throughout its exploitation to guarantee its real significance. Eventually, questions affecting occupation parity in the shale energy business sector, as well as public understanding, commitment, and idea sharing with the general populace, are essential to guaranteeing clarity and proper relationship throughout the shale development phase.

Thank you Biswajit Karmakar for your answer.

Dear Mulugeta Tefera Taye

You are right.

I think the best source of CMIP6 data (for now) is the link below:

Please read the following article; will be useful to find balance between reduced evaporation, and increased transpiration

To me, the mitigation of environmental risks and environmental compatibility could only be achievable if ;

1. We prioritize the preventive measure over the counteractive measure.

2. emphasis is given to

Identification and elimination of the causes of all kinds of environmental harzards beyond thought, those who are responsible for the action should be enlightened using their native language and culture.

3. Implement and compliment what other professionals have written in respect of disaster risk and climate change. Empty vessels make more noise. Identify, analyze, plan and act.

Best regards.

Yes Coly,

you got me right. You are thinking in right direction.

Climate change makes countries more vulnerable, especially developing countries.

Adaptation is everyone's business: Men, women, and even children must adapt, even though it has an impact on the environment, the economy, health, among others.

Climate displaced or refugees, especially women and girls, are sometimes victims of violence and sexual abuse.

With early pregnancies, children who have no known father, girls who have become young adults/mothers seek and do whatever they can to support themselves.

In Haiti, 12 years after the earthquake, the evidence is clear...

Very interesting discussion ; follow for more valuable responses from experts

Interesting quession

Thank you David Mendes

Dear Dr Maftuna Karimboeva . Yes. This including :

4. socioeconomic drought. Meteorological drought happens when dry weather patterns dominate an area. See the link: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/drought-definition#:~:text=As%20a%20result%2C%20the%20climatological,weather%20patterns%20dominate%20an%20area.

You can find daily, monthly, annual as well as climatic data from 1981 to 2020 in: NASA POWER | Data Access Viewer

Hi there Carolin,

sounds like a great topic for a BA thesis :-) I'm interested in your project - potentially also in participating as an interviewee. What precisely are you investigating in your research?

Feel free to contact me at Julius.Riese@web.de

With best wishes from Berlin,

Julius

You may look into these:

Hi Guys

Update, Worldclim has updated their website with new CMIP6 30arc sec variables.

We have waited long enough.

Enjoy!

The process of land use and land cover change and its effects on climate change and river water is of particular importance. Hence, there are different ways for the successful operation of your research in today's world. And one of these ways is the survey operation and comment (Dr. Jerzy Lechnio & Dr.Michaelmary Chukwu ) in this direction.

I suggest you try Eureqa Nutonian it is very efficient and reliable. You can use a free trial version.

regards

Dear Shuraik Kader

If your focus area is on building design-related research (with a green roof), you can submit built environment-related journals. However, If your focus area is on environmental engineering, you can submit physical environment-related journals.

For the Journal search, please follow Jochen Hack's suggestions.

Best of Luck.

Hello Juan Carlos Torrico

To me, the main advantage of gray literature is that it may contain information that is considered so "obvious" that it does not get mentioned in scientific literature. However, the lack of peer review makes me think twice sometimes.

The major disadvantage is that if I am looking for information about a very specific or specialised topic, that it will usually only be found in scientific literature.

climate change observation needs long-term investigation about the environment so it is essential to continue our scientific investigations prolong for finding responses, impact, precautions, and protection.

https://lishi.tianqi.com/. This website can find the history weather data of China.

Thank you everyone! I will look into these suggestions! I really appreciate your help!

Thanks Julius Riese for your supportive reaction. Some of our previous work has been published and is collected in our 'Climate Resilient Airports' project; https://www.researchgate.net/project/Climate-Resilient-Airports.

Yet, the current 'Disaster Resilient Airports' survey is not limited to climatic extremes and includes effects of volcanic activity a.o.

Change in temperature has a profound effect on reproduction in fish. Increasing temperatures cue reproductive development in spring-spawning species, and falling temperatures stimulate reproduction in autumn-spawners. Elevated temperatures truncate spring spawning, and delay in spawning.